0:00:00 > 0:00:00on Friday, he will find out that what we need is a hard-headed
0:00:00 > 0:00:12leader, not a fairy godmother. Thank you very much.
0:00:48 > 0:00:52And thank you very much and good afternoon everyone.
0:00:52 > 0:00:55I would like to express my thanks to the Creative Industries Federation,
0:00:55 > 0:00:57Somerset House Trust, and Tech London Advocates
0:00:57 > 0:01:02for the opportunity to speak here today.
0:01:02 > 0:01:08I must confess when I excepted, I hadn't imagined it was good to be
0:01:08 > 0:01:14quite such a busy week for Brexit, but perhaps that is appropriate.
0:01:14 > 0:01:15Brexit matters to our creative industries.
0:01:15 > 0:01:18They express our culture and values ? but give so much more.
0:01:18 > 0:01:20Nearly 10% of our national workforce is in creative industries.
0:01:20 > 0:01:24They are often the young ? and overwhelmingly in small
0:01:24 > 0:01:28units up and down the UK.
0:01:28 > 0:01:32Job growth outpaces every other part of industry ? especially
0:01:32 > 0:01:35in the Midlands and Yorkshire.
0:01:35 > 0:01:41Their exports total over £35 billion a year, but their added value
0:01:41 > 0:01:47to our country ? both economically and socially ? is incalculable.
0:01:47 > 0:01:48And far beyond cash.
0:01:48 > 0:01:52Our decision to leave the EU faces the creative industries
0:01:52 > 0:01:57with a variety of threats that could harm their future,
0:01:57 > 0:02:01both in financial and human terms.
0:02:01 > 0:02:04So I am delighted to be their guest here this afternoon
0:02:04 > 0:02:06to talk of Brexit.
0:02:06 > 0:02:09For years, the European debate has been dominated
0:02:09 > 0:02:13by the fringes of opinion ? by strong supporters of Europe
0:02:13 > 0:02:16or convinced opponents.
0:02:16 > 0:02:19But as we approach Brexit, the voice of middle opinion
0:02:19 > 0:02:21mustn t be overlooked.
0:02:21 > 0:02:26I am neither a Europhile nor a Eurosceptic.
0:02:26 > 0:02:32As Prime Minister, I said no to federal integration,
0:02:32 > 0:02:34no to the Euro Currency, and no to Schengen ?
0:02:34 > 0:02:37which introduced free movement of people within the European Union
0:02:37 > 0:02:38but without proper control of external borders.
0:02:38 > 0:02:42But I am a realist.
0:02:42 > 0:02:45I believe that to risk losing our trade advantages
0:02:45 > 0:02:48with the colossal market on our doorstep is to
0:02:48 > 0:02:52inflict economic self-harm on the British people.
0:02:52 > 0:03:00Of course, the will of the people can t be ignored, but Parliament has
0:03:00 > 0:03:03a duty also to consider the wellbeing of the people.
0:03:03 > 0:03:05No-one voted for higher prices and poorer public services,
0:03:05 > 0:03:08but that is what they may get.
0:03:08 > 0:03:13The emerging evidence suggests Brexit will hurt most
0:03:13 > 0:03:14those who have least.
0:03:14 > 0:03:24Neither Parliament nor Government wish to see that.
0:03:25 > 0:03:27The will of the people - so often summoned up
0:03:27 > 0:03:28when sound argument
0:03:28 > 0:03:31is absent ? was supported by only 37% of the electorate.
0:03:31 > 0:03:3663% voted either in favour of membership ? or did not vote at all.
0:03:36 > 0:03:41There was a majority for Brexit, but there was no overwhelming
0:03:41 > 0:03:46mandate to ignore the reservations of 16 million voters,
0:03:46 > 0:03:52who believe it will be a harmful change of direction for our country.
0:03:52 > 0:03:58Brexit has been the most divisive issue of my lifetime.
0:03:58 > 0:04:06It has divided not only the four nations of our UK,
0:04:06 > 0:04:07but regions within them.
0:04:07 > 0:04:09It has divided political parties; political colleagues; families;
0:04:09 > 0:04:15friends ? and the young from the old.
0:04:15 > 0:04:18We have to heal those divisions.
0:04:18 > 0:04:25They have been made worse by the character of the Brexit
0:04:25 > 0:04:28debate, with its intolerance, its bullying, and its name-calling.
0:04:28 > 0:04:33I welcome rigorous debate ? but there must be respect
0:04:33 > 0:04:39for differing views that are honestly held.
0:04:39 > 0:04:43In this debate there are no remoaners, no mutineers,
0:04:43 > 0:04:46no enemies of the people ? just voices setting out what they believe
0:04:46 > 0:04:53is right for our country.
0:04:53 > 0:04:58In recent weeks, the idea has gained ground that Brexit won't be too bad,
0:04:58 > 0:05:01that we will all get through it, that we're doing better than
0:05:01 > 0:05:05expected ? and all will be well.
0:05:05 > 0:05:11Of course we will get through it.
0:05:11 > 0:05:13Life as we know it won't come to an end.
0:05:13 > 0:05:16We are too resourceful and talented a nation for that.
0:05:16 > 0:05:18But our nation is owed a frank assessment of what leaving Europe
0:05:18 > 0:05:20may mean ? for now and the future.
0:05:20 > 0:05:23I fear we will be weaker and less prosperous ?
0:05:23 > 0:05:26as a country and as individuals.
0:05:26 > 0:05:31And ? although it grieves me to admit it ? our divorce
0:05:31 > 0:05:32from Europe will diminish our international stature.
0:05:33 > 0:05:37Indeed, it already has.
0:05:37 > 0:05:44For decades, we British have super-charged our influence around
0:05:44 > 0:06:01the world by our closeness to the US - which policy divisions
0:06:01 > 0:06:06are broadening - and our membership of the EU.
0:06:06 > 0:06:07which we are abandoning.
0:06:07 > 0:06:10As a result, we are already becoming a lesser actor.
0:06:10 > 0:06:12No-one ? Leaver or Remainer ? can welcome that.
0:06:12 > 0:06:15We are all urged to be patriotic and get behind Brexit.
0:06:15 > 0:06:23But it is precisely because I am patriotic that I oppose it.
0:06:23 > 0:06:27I want my country to be influential, not isolated.
0:06:27 > 0:06:28Committed, not cut-off, a leading participant,
0:06:28 > 0:06:29not a bystander.
0:06:29 > 0:06:31I want us to be richer, not poorer.
0:06:31 > 0:06:34Yet every serious international body, including the IMF, the OECD,
0:06:34 > 0:06:36the Institute for Fiscal Studies, the National Institute of Economic
0:06:36 > 0:06:39and Social Research ? as well as Nobel prize-winners ?
0:06:39 > 0:06:45forecast we will be poorer outside the EU.
0:06:45 > 0:06:51Such forecasts could be wrong, but to dismiss them out
0:06:51 > 0:06:55of hand is reckless.
0:06:55 > 0:07:02Our own Government has assessed our post-Brexit position
0:07:02 > 0:07:06upon three separate criteria - that we stay in the Single Market,
0:07:06 > 0:07:12or reach a trade deal with Europe, or fail to do so.
0:07:12 > 0:07:15Each option shows us to be worse off - and disastrously
0:07:15 > 0:07:20so with no trade deal at all.
0:07:20 > 0:07:26And the poorest regions will be hurt the most.
0:07:26 > 0:07:29If, as negotiations proceed, this analysis appears to be correct,
0:07:30 > 0:07:36that cannot be brushed aside.
0:07:36 > 0:07:43I know of no precedent for any Government enacting a policy that
0:07:43 > 0:07:48will make both our country and our people poorer.
0:07:48 > 0:07:54Once that is apparent, the Government must change course.
0:07:54 > 0:08:04Meanwhile, we are yet again told all will be well.
0:08:05 > 0:08:07Certainly, the recent fall in the value of sterling has
0:08:07 > 0:08:08temporarily boosted our exports.
0:08:08 > 0:08:10The strength of the world economy may even increase our
0:08:10 > 0:08:13forecast growth this year.
0:08:13 > 0:08:16But this sweet spot is artificial.
0:08:16 > 0:08:20It won't last.
0:08:20 > 0:08:25Prosperity isn't built on devaluation of the currency.
0:08:25 > 0:08:27More exports on the back of other countries' economic growth
0:08:27 > 0:08:31is not a secure position.
0:08:31 > 0:08:38The UK has been at the very top of European growth.
0:08:38 > 0:08:43We are now the laggard at the bottom.
0:08:43 > 0:08:49We have become the slowest of the world's big economies,
0:08:49 > 0:08:51even before we surrender the familiar advantages
0:08:51 > 0:08:57of the Single Market.
0:08:57 > 0:09:03Our negotiations, so far, have not always been sure-footed.
0:09:03 > 0:09:07Some agreements have been reached but, in many areas, only
0:09:07 > 0:09:12because the UK has given ground.
0:09:12 > 0:09:17Our determination to negotiate the divorce bill and a new trade
0:09:17 > 0:09:22deal at the same time was going to be "the fight
0:09:22 > 0:09:30of the summer" - but instead became an immediate British retreat.
0:09:30 > 0:09:35There was to be a "points based" immigration system.
0:09:35 > 0:09:41There isn't, and there won't be.
0:09:41 > 0:09:43We were to become the "Singapore of the North".
0:09:43 > 0:09:45No more: we have retreated from a policy of lower
0:09:45 > 0:09:46taxes and de-regulation.
0:09:46 > 0:09:48No transition period was going to be needed.
0:09:48 > 0:09:52But we have now asked for one - during which we will accept new EU
0:09:52 > 0:09:56rules, ECJ jurisdiction, and free movement of people.
0:09:56 > 0:09:59I don't say this to be critical.
0:09:59 > 0:10:09I do so to illustrate that unrealistic aspirations are usually
0:10:09 > 0:10:10followed by retreat.
0:10:10 > 0:10:20That is a lesson for the negotiations to come.
0:10:23 > 0:10:25They will be the most complex and most difficult any
0:10:25 > 0:10:26Government has faced.
0:10:26 > 0:10:28Our aims have to be realistic.
0:10:28 > 0:10:31I am not sure they yet are.
0:10:31 > 0:10:36We simply cannot move forward with leaving the EU,
0:10:36 > 0:10:44the Single Market, the Customs Union and the ECJ, whilst at the same time
0:10:44 > 0:10:45expecting a la carte, beneficial-to-Britain,
0:10:45 > 0:10:52bespoke entrance to the European market.
0:10:52 > 0:10:53It is simply not credible.
0:10:53 > 0:11:01A willingness to compromise is essential.
0:11:01 > 0:11:10If either side - the UK or the EU - is too inflexible, too unbending,
0:11:12 > 0:11:22too wedded to what they won't do - then the negotiations will fail.
0:11:22 > 0:11:27The very essence of negotiation involves both "give" and "take".
0:11:27 > 0:11:32But there are always "red lines" that neither side wishes to cross.
0:11:32 > 0:11:34In successful negotiations those "red lines" are
0:11:34 > 0:11:38traded for concessions.
0:11:38 > 0:11:43If our "red lines" are held to be inviolable, the likelihood of no
0:11:43 > 0:11:45deal - or a poor deal - increases.
0:11:45 > 0:11:49Every time we close off options prematurely,
0:11:49 > 0:11:51this encourages the EU to do the same - and that is not
0:11:52 > 0:11:57in our British interest.
0:11:57 > 0:12:04A good Brexit - for Britain - will protect our trade
0:12:04 > 0:12:08advantages, and enable us to continue to sell our goods
0:12:08 > 0:12:11and services without disruption, import and export food
0:12:11 > 0:12:15without barriers and extra cost, staff our hospitals,
0:12:15 > 0:12:24universities and businesses with the skills we need -
0:12:24 > 0:12:28where we most need them, be part of the cutting edge
0:12:28 > 0:12:33of European research, in which British brains
0:12:33 > 0:12:37and skills lead the way, and continue with the
0:12:37 > 0:12:39over 40 FTAs we have with countries only as a result
0:12:39 > 0:12:45of our membership of the EU.
0:12:45 > 0:12:48A bad Brexit - for Britain - will surrender these,
0:12:48 > 0:12:52and other, advantages.
0:12:52 > 0:12:59For the moment, our self-imposed "red lines" have boxed
0:12:59 > 0:13:01the Government into a corner.
0:13:01 > 0:13:05They are so tilted to ultra Brexit opinion, even the Cabinet cannot
0:13:05 > 0:13:11agree them - and a majority in both Houses of Parliament oppose them.
0:13:11 > 0:13:14If maintained in full, it will be impossible to reach
0:13:14 > 0:13:20a favourable trade outcome.
0:13:20 > 0:13:25Alarmed at the negotiations so far, the financial sector, businesses,
0:13:25 > 0:13:32and our academic institutions, are pleading for common-sense policy
0:13:32 > 0:13:34to serve the national interest and now -
0:13:34 > 0:13:38fearful they may not get
0:13:38 > 0:13:40it - are making their own preparations for the future.
0:13:40 > 0:13:46Japanese car-makers warn they could close operations
0:13:46 > 0:13:51in Britain unless we maintain free access to the EU.
0:13:51 > 0:13:53That would be heart-breaking for many people in Sunderland
0:13:53 > 0:14:03or Swindon or South Wales.
0:14:07 > 0:14:11This isn't "Project Fear" revisited, it is "Project Know Your History".
0:14:11 > 0:14:12Any doubters should consult the former employees of factories,
0:14:12 > 0:14:14now closed, in Bridgend, Port Talbot and Newport,
0:14:14 > 0:14:20where jobs were lost and families suffered.
0:14:20 > 0:14:26In 1991, employment by Japanese firms in Wales was about 17,000
0:14:26 > 0:14:31people - today, it is 2,000.
0:14:31 > 0:14:35If free access to Europe is lost - that scale of impact, across the UK,
0:14:35 > 0:14:43could lose 125,000 Japanese jobs.
0:14:43 > 0:14:49Over many years, the Conservative Party has understood
0:14:49 > 0:14:52the concerns of business.
0:14:52 > 0:14:58Not over Brexit, it seems.
0:14:58 > 0:15:01Across the United Kingdom - businesses are expressing their wish
0:15:01 > 0:15:11to stay in the Single Market and Customs Union.
0:15:12 > 0:15:13But "No", say the Government's "red lines".
0:15:13 > 0:15:23Businesses wish to have the freedom to employ foreign skills.
0:15:23 > 0:15:25"No", say the Government's "red lines".
0:15:25 > 0:15:27Business and academia wish to welcome foreign students
0:15:27 > 0:15:30to our universities and - as they rise to influence
0:15:30 > 0:15:32in their own countries - we then have willing
0:15:32 > 0:15:42partners in politics and business for decades to come.
0:15:42 > 0:15:43"No", say the Government's "red lines".
0:15:43 > 0:15:45This is not only grand folly.
0:15:45 > 0:15:46It's also bad politics.
0:15:46 > 0:15:49The national interest must always be above the Party interest,
0:15:49 > 0:15:50but my Party should beware.
0:15:50 > 0:15:53It is only fear of Mr Corbyn and Mr McDonnell that prevents
0:15:53 > 0:15:56a haemorrhage of business support.
0:15:56 > 0:16:03Without the comprehensive trade deal the Prime Minister seeks,
0:16:03 > 0:16:09we risk economic divorce from the EU, and the chill embrace
0:16:09 > 0:16:15of a "hard" Brexit with WTO rules.
0:16:15 > 0:16:20Leading Brexit supporters believe there is nothing to fear
0:16:20 > 0:16:29from losing our special access to the Single Market.
0:16:29 > 0:16:32But to me that is profoundly wrong.
0:16:32 > 0:16:35Swapping the Single Market for WTO rules
0:16:35 > 0:16:41would mean our exports facing the EU external tariff,
0:16:41 > 0:16:45as well as hidden nontariff barriers that could be adjusted
0:16:45 > 0:16:51to our disadvantage at any time.
0:16:51 > 0:16:58One Minister has speculated we might face tariffs of 3%.
0:16:58 > 0:16:59If only.
0:16:59 > 0:17:10Not so.
0:17:22 > 0:17:24It is more likely that we will face tariffs on cars 10%,
0:17:25 > 0:17:26food 14%, drinks 20%,
0:17:26 > 0:17:27and dairy products 36%.
0:17:27 > 0:17:29Even if a successful negotiation were to halve these tariffs,
0:17:29 > 0:17:32our exports would still be much more expensive to sell - and this
0:17:32 > 0:17:34would apply far beyond agriculture and the motor industry.
0:17:34 > 0:17:37And if, in retaliation, the UK were to impose tariffs on imports,
0:17:37 > 0:17:40this would result in higher prices for the British consumer.
0:17:40 > 0:17:43If we and the EU agreed to impose nil tariffs - as some have
0:17:43 > 0:17:47speculated - WTO rules mean we would both have to offer nil
0:17:47 > 0:17:57tariffs to all countries.
0:17:57 > 0:17:58That simply isn't going to happen.
0:17:58 > 0:17:59This is all very complex.
0:17:59 > 0:18:02But it is crucial.
0:18:02 > 0:18:08And none of it has yet been properly explained to the British people.
0:18:08 > 0:18:13There have been attempts to reassure business by claiming that other
0:18:13 > 0:18:18nations trade with the EU on purely WTO terms.
0:18:19 > 0:18:24That statement is simply wrong.
0:18:24 > 0:18:29China, the US and Japan all have side agreements
0:18:29 > 0:18:32with Europe on standards, customs co-operation,
0:18:32 > 0:18:37mutual recognition and investment.
0:18:37 > 0:18:42These economic giants did so to protect their own trade
0:18:42 > 0:18:46even though none of them is exposed as we are ? still half our entire
0:18:46 > 0:18:52exports go to Europe.
0:18:52 > 0:19:02Ultra Brexit opinion is impatient to be free of European
0:19:07 > 0:19:15relationships, to become - in their words - a "global player",
0:19:15 > 0:19:16"sovereign", "in control".
0:19:16 > 0:19:19I believe they are deceiving themselves and, as a result,
0:19:19 > 0:19:20they are misleading the British people.
0:19:20 > 0:19:23Before the modern world took shape - their ambition
0:19:23 > 0:19:23would have been credible.
0:19:23 > 0:19:26But the world has changed, the global market has taken root,
0:19:26 > 0:19:29and - if we are to care for the people of our nation -
0:19:29 > 0:19:34philosophical fantasies must give way to national self-interest.
0:19:34 > 0:19:39We cannot prepare for tomorrow by living in the world of yesterday.
0:19:39 > 0:19:43I don't doubt the convictions of those who long for the seductive
0:19:43 > 0:19:49ambition of British exceptionalism.
0:19:49 > 0:19:55But these sentiments are out-of-date and,
0:19:55 > 0:19:57in today's world, simply wrong.
0:19:57 > 0:19:58It is not my purpose to stir controversy,
0:19:58 > 0:20:04but the truth must be spoken.
0:20:04 > 0:20:08The ultra Brexiteers have been mistaken - wrong - in nearly
0:20:08 > 0:20:13all they have said or promised to the British people.
0:20:13 > 0:20:17The promises of more hospitals, more schools, lower taxes,
0:20:17 > 0:20:23more money for transport were electioneering fantasy.
0:20:23 > 0:20:33The £350 million a week for the NHS was a ridiculous phantom -
0:20:33 > 0:20:35the reality is if our economy weakens - as is forecast -
0:20:35 > 0:20:38there will not only be less money for the NHS,
0:20:38 > 0:20:46but for all our public services.
0:20:46 > 0:20:50We were told that nobody was threatening our place
0:20:50 > 0:20:51in the Single Market.
0:20:51 > 0:20:56That tune has changed.
0:20:56 > 0:21:06We were told that a trade deal with the EU would be easy to get.
0:21:08 > 0:21:12We could do it in an afternoon.
0:21:12 > 0:21:15Wrong again - it was never going to be easy,
0:21:15 > 0:21:16and we are still not
0:21:16 > 0:21:21sure what outcome will be achieved.
0:21:21 > 0:21:24We were told "Europe can whistle for their money" and we would not
0:21:24 > 0:21:26pay a penny in exit costs.
0:21:26 > 0:21:27Wrong again.
0:21:27 > 0:21:29Europe didn't even have to purse her lips before
0:21:29 > 0:21:31we agreed to pay £40 billion to meet legitimate liabilities.
0:21:31 > 0:21:36I could go on.
0:21:36 > 0:21:41But I think the point is made.
0:21:41 > 0:21:45But suffice to say that every one of the Brexit promises is - to quote
0:21:45 > 0:21:51Henry Fielding - "a very wholesome and comfortable doctrine
0:21:51 > 0:21:56to whichthere but one objection: namely, that it is not true.".
0:21:56 > 0:22:02People should pause and reflect.
0:22:02 > 0:22:04If the Brexit leaders were wrong in what they said
0:22:04 > 0:22:05so enthusiastically before -
0:22:05 > 0:22:11are they not likely to be wrong in what they say now?
0:22:11 > 0:22:15The Prime Minister is seeking a "frictionless" border
0:22:15 > 0:22:17between Northern Ireland and the Republic.
0:22:17 > 0:22:21She is absolutely right to do so.
0:22:21 > 0:22:27This is a promise that must be honoured, and I wish her well.
0:22:27 > 0:22:32But, so far, this has not materialised - nor, I fear,
0:22:32 > 0:22:38will it - unless we stay in "a" or "the" Customs Union.
0:22:38 > 0:22:42Those of us who warned of the risks Brexit would bring
0:22:42 > 0:22:45to the still fragile Peace Process were told at the time that we
0:22:45 > 0:22:51didn't understand Irish politics.
0:22:51 > 0:23:02But it seems we understood it better than our critics.
0:23:02 > 0:23:04We need a policy urgently to protect the Good Friday Agreement -
0:23:04 > 0:23:10and we need one urgently.
0:23:10 > 0:23:12And it is our British responsibility to find one -
0:23:12 > 0:23:20not the European Union.
0:23:20 > 0:23:23We need to provide a solution and not simply oppose what other people
0:23:23 > 0:23:25suggest.
0:23:25 > 0:23:28Although the referendum was advisory only, the result gave
0:23:28 > 0:23:36the Government the obligation to negotiate a Brexit.
0:23:36 > 0:23:38But not any Brexit, not at all costs, and certainly
0:23:38 > 0:23:44not on any terms.
0:23:44 > 0:23:49The true remit can only be to agree a Brexit that honours the promises
0:23:49 > 0:23:54made in the referendum.
0:23:54 > 0:23:57But, so far, the promises have not been met and,
0:23:58 > 0:24:05probably, cannot be met.
0:24:05 > 0:24:08Many electors now know they were misled - many more
0:24:08 > 0:24:10are beginning to realise it.
0:24:10 > 0:24:14So, the electorate has every right to reconsider their decision.
0:24:14 > 0:24:18Meanwhile, our options become ever narrower.
0:24:18 > 0:24:20We have ruled out full membership.
0:24:20 > 0:24:24Ruled out the Single Market and Customs Union.
0:24:24 > 0:24:26Ruled out joining the European Economic Area.
0:24:27 > 0:24:29Dismissed talk of joining EFTA.
0:24:29 > 0:24:31A Norway deal won't do.
0:24:31 > 0:24:32Nor will a Swiss deal.
0:24:32 > 0:24:38Nor a Ukraine deal, a Turkey deal, or a South Korea deal.
0:24:38 > 0:24:42No to them all, say the Government s red lines.
0:24:42 > 0:24:46So, little is left, except for cherry picking,
0:24:46 > 0:24:49which the EU rejects.
0:24:49 > 0:24:52Or a comprehensive deal ? which will be very hard,
0:24:52 > 0:24:54if not impossible, to get.
0:24:54 > 0:25:00So compromise it must be ? or no deal at all.
0:25:00 > 0:25:04It is now widely accepted that no deal would be
0:25:04 > 0:25:07the worst possible outcome.
0:25:07 > 0:25:17The compromise must, therefore, focus around our accepting
0:25:18 > 0:25:20Single Market rules, as Norway does, and paying for access.
0:25:20 > 0:25:23Or an enhanced "Canada deal" -and it would need to be enhanced
0:25:23 > 0:25:25a very great deal to be attractive.
0:25:25 > 0:25:28The Canada deal largely concerns goods - whereas the bulk of UK
0:25:28 > 0:25:30exports are services.
0:25:30 > 0:25:38But what we achieve to protect our interests may depend
0:25:38 > 0:25:45on what we concede - it is, as I say, give and take.
0:25:45 > 0:25:50If our red lines dissolve, our options enlarge.
0:25:50 > 0:25:56Our minimum objective must be that "deep, special and bespoke" trade
0:25:56 > 0:26:01deal the Prime Minister has talked about.
0:26:01 > 0:26:05So, some unpalatable decisions lie ahead -
0:26:05 > 0:26:08with the cast-iron certainty that the extreme and unbending
0:26:08 > 0:26:14Brexit lobby will cry betrayal at any compromise.
0:26:14 > 0:26:17But it is Parliament, not a small minority,
0:26:17 > 0:26:21that must decide our policy.
0:26:21 > 0:26:24I spoke earlier of the divisiveness of Brexit
0:26:24 > 0:26:34across our United Kingdom.
0:26:41 > 0:26:44But in due time, the debate will end, and when it does
0:26:44 > 0:26:46we need the highest possible level of public acceptance
0:26:46 > 0:26:47for the outcome.
0:26:47 > 0:26:50It is in no-one's interest for the bitterness and
0:26:50 > 0:26:51division to linger on.
0:26:51 > 0:26:55I see only one way to achieve this.
0:26:55 > 0:27:00It is already agreed that Parliament must pass legislation
0:27:00 > 0:27:03giving effect to the deal.
0:27:03 > 0:27:07A meaningful vote has been promised.
0:27:07 > 0:27:13This must be a decisive vote, in which Parliament can accept
0:27:13 > 0:27:19or reject the final outcome - or send the negotiators back to seek
0:27:19 > 0:27:24improvements, or order a referendum.
0:27:24 > 0:27:33That is what Parliamentary sovereignty means.
0:27:33 > 0:27:37But to minimise divisions in our country - and between
0:27:37 > 0:27:40and within the political parties - I believe the Government should take
0:27:40 > 0:27:43a brave and bold decision.
0:27:43 > 0:27:47They should invite Parliament to accept or reject the final
0:27:47 > 0:27:51outcome on a free vote.
0:27:51 > 0:27:56I know the instinct of every Government is to oppose free
0:27:56 > 0:27:59votes, but the Government should weigh the advantages
0:27:59 > 0:28:03of having one very carefully.
0:28:03 > 0:28:07It may be in their interest to do so.
0:28:07 > 0:28:12There are some very practical reasons in favour of it.
0:28:12 > 0:28:15Brexit is a unique decision.
0:28:15 > 0:28:18It will affect the lives of the British people
0:28:18 > 0:28:21for generations to come.
0:28:21 > 0:28:27If it flops, there will be the most terrible backlash.
0:28:27 > 0:28:34If it is whipped through Parliament, when the public are so divided,
0:28:34 > 0:28:39voters will know who to blame if they end up poorer and weaker.
0:28:39 > 0:28:44So, both democracy and prudence suggest a free vote.
0:28:44 > 0:28:49The deep divisions in our nation are more likely to be healed
0:28:49 > 0:28:55by a Brexit freely approved by Parliament, than a Brexit forced
0:28:55 > 0:28:59through Parliament at the behest of a minority of convinced
0:28:59 > 0:29:05opponents of Europe.
0:29:05 > 0:29:08A free vote would better reflect the reality that, for every 17
0:29:08 > 0:29:14voters who opted for Brexit, 16 opted to remain in the EU.
0:29:14 > 0:29:17But, regardless of whether a free vote is offered, Parliamentarians
0:29:17 > 0:29:24must decide the issue on the basis of their own conscience.
0:29:24 > 0:29:29Upon whether, in mature judgment, they really do believe
0:29:29 > 0:29:32that the outcome of the negotiations is in the best interests
0:29:32 > 0:29:38of the people they serve.
0:29:38 > 0:29:43By 2021, after the likely two-year transition,
0:29:43 > 0:29:49it will be five years since the 2016 referendum.
0:29:49 > 0:29:51The electorate will have changed.
0:29:51 > 0:29:53Some voters will have left us.
0:29:53 > 0:29:56Many new voters will be enfranchised.
0:29:56 > 0:30:02Others may have changed their mind.
0:30:02 > 0:30:05No-one can truly know what the will of the people may then be.
0:30:05 > 0:30:09So, let Parliament decide.
0:30:09 > 0:30:12Or put the issue back to the people.
0:30:12 > 0:30:15And what is true for the House of Commons must apply
0:30:15 > 0:30:18to the House of Lords.
0:30:18 > 0:30:22Peers must ignore any noises off, and be guided by their intellect
0:30:22 > 0:30:25and their conscience.
0:30:25 > 0:30:30I have been a Conservative all my life.
0:30:30 > 0:30:36I don't enjoy being out of step with many in my Party and take no
0:30:36 > 0:30:43pleasure in speaking out as I am today.
0:30:43 > 0:30:49But it's as necessary to speak truth to the people, as to power.
0:30:49 > 0:30:57Leaving Europe is an issue so far-reaching, so permanent,
0:30:57 > 0:31:02so over-arching that it will have an impact on all our
0:31:02 > 0:31:07lives - most especially on the young and the future.
0:31:07 > 0:31:13With only 12 months to go, we need answers, not aspirations.
0:31:13 > 0:31:18This is far more than just a party issue.
0:31:18 > 0:31:21It's about the future of our United Kingdom,
0:31:21 > 0:31:23and everyone who lives in it.
0:31:23 > 0:31:27That is what matters.
0:31:27 > 0:31:33That is why I'm here today.
0:31:33 > 0:31:43Thank you very much.