0:00:38 > 0:00:49Thank you very much indeed, Fabio.
0:00:49 > 0:00:53It is a great example of European corporation, because I think you did
0:00:53 > 0:00:59your Ph.D. In the city of my birth, you then married a Scot, and you are
0:00:59 > 0:01:03from Germany but you are living in Brussels. It is pretty good. I hope
0:01:03 > 0:01:08it is working out for you, anyway. I am going to do my speech and then we
0:01:08 > 0:01:13will have time for questions and answers. I want to start by saying
0:01:13 > 0:01:15that...
0:01:15 > 0:01:17Brexit is momentous and life-changing for Britain.
0:01:17 > 0:01:21The British people should be given a final say
0:01:21 > 0:01:29on whatever deal is negotiated.
0:01:29 > 0:01:31If they are allowed that say, then Brexit can be averted.
0:01:31 > 0:01:34I and many others will work passionately for that outcome.
0:01:34 > 0:01:40But today I want to say here in Brussels why Brexit
0:01:40 > 0:01:42is also bad for Europe, and why European leaders share
0:01:42 > 0:01:47the responsibility to lead us out of the Brexit cul-de-sac and find
0:01:47 > 0:01:54a path to preserve European unity intact.
0:01:54 > 0:01:59For the first time since its inception, a nation,
0:01:59 > 0:02:04and a major one at that, will have disrupted the onward march
0:02:04 > 0:02:09of European cohesion, left the European Union
0:02:09 > 0:02:15and will have done so apparently for reasons of principle at odds
0:02:15 > 0:02:17with the whole rationale for the union's existence.
0:02:17 > 0:02:23Britain without Europe will lose weight and influence.
0:02:23 > 0:02:31But Europe without Britain will be smaller and diminished.
0:02:31 > 0:02:35And both of us will be less than we are and much less
0:02:35 > 0:02:42than we could be together.
0:02:42 > 0:02:46In politics, there is a kind of fatalism which can often
0:02:46 > 0:02:49overwhelm what is right by making the right course seem
0:02:49 > 0:02:54hopeless or even delusional.
0:02:54 > 0:03:01So it is with Brexit.
0:03:01 > 0:03:04In the UK, we are told the people have spoken and to interrogate
0:03:04 > 0:03:05the question further is treachery.
0:03:05 > 0:03:09The will of the people is deemed clear and indisputable,
0:03:09 > 0:03:12though what that will means in practice given the complexity
0:03:12 > 0:03:18of Brexit, the multiple interpretations of it,
0:03:18 > 0:03:22and the differing consequences of each version, is - with every day
0:03:22 > 0:03:24which passes - not clear at all.
0:03:24 > 0:03:30But nonetheless we are told we must just do it.
0:03:30 > 0:03:34And in Europe there is often a sorrowful shaking of heads
0:03:34 > 0:03:41and a shrugging of the shoulders, when what we need is strong engaged
0:03:41 > 0:03:43leadership to avoid a rupture which will do lasting damage
0:03:44 > 0:03:45to us both.
0:03:45 > 0:03:49I understand European reticence.
0:03:49 > 0:03:52Until Europe sees real signs that there could be
0:03:52 > 0:03:54a change of mind in Britain, why should it contemplate
0:03:54 > 0:03:57the possibility of change in Europe?
0:03:57 > 0:04:03However, the argument in Britain is far from over.
0:04:03 > 0:04:05It is in flux.
0:04:05 > 0:04:12See the speech of Jeremy Corbyn this week.
0:04:12 > 0:04:16What I call the dilemma of the negotiation ? close to Europe
0:04:16 > 0:04:21to avoid economic damage but therefore accepting its rules
0:04:21 > 0:04:26or free from Europe's rules but therefore accepting economic
0:04:26 > 0:04:30damage - is finally prising open the discourse.
0:04:30 > 0:04:34It is a binary choice.
0:04:34 > 0:04:43The cake will either be had or be eaten but it will not be both.
0:04:43 > 0:04:46The dilemma divides the Brexit vote.
0:04:46 > 0:04:55Many of those who voted Brexit want a clean break from Europe
0:04:55 > 0:05:00even if there is economic difficulty as a result.
0:05:00 > 0:05:03And even if it soured the politics of Ireland.
0:05:03 > 0:05:06But many others would not want it if there were an economic cost,
0:05:06 > 0:05:08and would certainly believe that peace in Ireland
0:05:08 > 0:05:10should be protected.
0:05:10 > 0:05:16Outside commentary under-estimates the fact that at some point this
0:05:16 > 0:05:21year the Government have got to put a vote to Parliament and win it.
0:05:21 > 0:05:27They will of course try to fudge, but as we are seeing this cake
0:05:27 > 0:05:31is quite resistant to fudge.
0:05:31 > 0:05:35After last June's General Election, winning this vote will be much
0:05:35 > 0:05:38tougher than is commonly understood.
0:05:38 > 0:05:45For once, Parliament in this equation can be more
0:05:45 > 0:05:48decisive than either Government or opposition.
0:05:48 > 0:05:51There are three legs to the stool upon which could sit
0:05:51 > 0:05:54a reconsideration of Brexit.
0:05:54 > 0:05:57The first is to show the British people that what they were told
0:05:57 > 0:06:02in June 2016 has turned out much more complex and costly
0:06:02 > 0:06:06than they thought.
0:06:06 > 0:06:12This leg is looking increasingly robust as time goes on.
0:06:12 > 0:06:15The second is to show that there are different and better
0:06:15 > 0:06:20ways of responding to the genuine underlying grievances
0:06:20 > 0:06:23beneath the Brexit vote, especially around immigration.
0:06:23 > 0:06:30This leg is easy to construct but needs willing workers.
0:06:30 > 0:06:36The third is a openness on the part of Europe to respond to Brexit
0:06:36 > 0:06:39by treating it as a wake-up call to change in Europe
0:06:39 > 0:06:42and not just an expression of British recalcitrance.
0:06:42 > 0:06:46This is the leg to focus on today.
0:06:46 > 0:06:50The stool needs all three legs.
0:06:50 > 0:06:55For Europe, the damage of Brexit is obvious and not so obvious.
0:06:55 > 0:06:59In obvious terms, though the economic pain for Britain,
0:06:59 > 0:07:05especially of a clean break Brexit, is large, the cost to Europe is also
0:07:05 > 0:07:09significant and painful.
0:07:09 > 0:07:16One in seven German cars is sold in Britain and goods exports
0:07:16 > 0:07:20in total are worth 3.5% of its GDP; the figure for Ireland is 14% of GDP
0:07:20 > 0:07:25and for Belgium over 7%; Britain is a huge market for French produce
0:07:25 > 0:07:29of many kinds; and a top three export partner for ten EU members
0:07:29 > 0:07:33including Italy and Spain.
0:07:33 > 0:07:37Around 200,000 Dutch jobs are involved in trade with the UK.
0:07:37 > 0:07:39There are around 60 direct flights between London
0:07:40 > 0:07:45and Amsterdam every day.
0:07:45 > 0:07:48According to the Dutch Government agency CPB a hard Brexit could make
0:07:48 > 0:07:54every Dutch person around 1000 euros poorer.
0:07:54 > 0:07:58A Europe in which Britain finds it harder to be a financial centre
0:07:58 > 0:08:02for European business will be deeply damaging for Britain
0:08:02 > 0:08:06but it will also impede the economy of Europe.
0:08:06 > 0:08:11Estimates of the long term effect on European growth vary depending
0:08:11 > 0:08:15on the version of Brexit chosen, but they vary from bad to very bad.
0:08:15 > 0:08:20In short, no one I have spoken to in the investment community
0:08:20 > 0:08:23from the USA to China thinks this is a good idea for
0:08:23 > 0:08:27Britain or for Europe.
0:08:27 > 0:08:36Because of these effects, some in Britain believe that
0:08:36 > 0:08:39therefore Europe will bend its negotiating stance and allow
0:08:39 > 0:08:44Britain largely unfettered access to Europe's Single Market
0:08:44 > 0:08:46without the necessity of abiding by Europe's rules.
0:08:46 > 0:08:51This won't happen because quite simply it can't.
0:08:51 > 0:08:58To do so, would risk unravelling the Single Market and a return
0:08:58 > 0:09:02to precisely the system that was in place before Europe
0:09:02 > 0:09:07wisely and in the interests of its economy and with of course
0:09:07 > 0:09:09the full urging of successive British Governments decided
0:09:10 > 0:09:15to create the Single Market.
0:09:15 > 0:09:19But the damage to Europe of a political nature
0:09:19 > 0:09:26is to my mind more deleterious.
0:09:26 > 0:09:28For Schuman and other founding fathers, the project of European
0:09:28 > 0:09:33unity was a project of peace, cooperation in Europe
0:09:33 > 0:09:40being the alternative to the wars which had ravaged Europe
0:09:40 > 0:09:42and the world in the first half of the 20th century.
0:09:42 > 0:09:45They looked back at the long history of European nations and saw
0:09:45 > 0:09:47centuries of conflict punctuated by all too brief epochs
0:09:48 > 0:09:53of relative harmony.
0:09:53 > 0:09:57From the time of Charlemagne, Europe had come together periodically,
0:09:57 > 0:10:03but mainly through religion, force or transitory necessity.
0:10:03 > 0:10:11There had been an uneasy balance of power arrangement towards the end
0:10:11 > 0:10:14of the 19th century but then the rivalries
0:10:14 > 0:10:17of the great European nations pitched them into a war no one ever
0:10:17 > 0:10:19thought would prove as devastating as it did.
0:10:19 > 0:10:23The attempt out of it to produce a new political settlement fell
0:10:23 > 0:10:33victim to the competing totalitarian ideologies of communism
0:10:37 > 0:10:40and fascism and the descent into the darkness of World War II.
0:10:40 > 0:10:42Then, standing on the rubble of destruction, they decided
0:10:42 > 0:10:44to approach European unity with renewed vigour and vowed
0:10:44 > 0:10:46to give it institutional and practical meaning.
0:10:46 > 0:10:50Thus, began what has now become the European Union.
0:10:50 > 0:10:56The rationale for Europe today is not peace but power.
0:10:56 > 0:11:00For almost 300 years, the world has been dominated by the West.
0:11:00 > 0:11:04At the beginning of that time the great powers were European,
0:11:04 > 0:11:08with colonies and Empires.
0:11:08 > 0:11:09Japan and China were of course major nations,
0:11:10 > 0:11:15but they were not shaping the world.
0:11:15 > 0:11:18By the end of WW1, the United States had emerged as the most powerful
0:11:18 > 0:11:28nation, steadily eclipsing the United Kingdom and stayed that
0:11:28 > 0:11:29way through the 20th century.
0:11:29 > 0:11:33But today, the world is changing again.
0:11:33 > 0:11:38China is today the second largest economy, the biggest global trader
0:11:38 > 0:11:41and as holder of huge amounts of American debt, intimately
0:11:41 > 0:11:46important to global prosperity.
0:11:46 > 0:11:49If we look back at the top economies in the year 2000,
0:11:49 > 0:11:59Europe dominates the top ten.
0:12:04 > 0:12:07Germany's was four times the size of India's and larger than China's.
0:12:07 > 0:12:08Mexico, Brazil and Indonesia were distant specks
0:12:08 > 0:12:10on the horizon far behind.
0:12:10 > 0:12:20By 2016, the situation changes dramatically.
0:12:24 > 0:12:27India's economy is now almost as large as the UK and France.
0:12:27 > 0:12:29By 2030, India's economy will be larger than those
0:12:29 > 0:12:30of Germany or Japan.
0:12:30 > 0:12:32Brazil, Indonesia and Mexico are narrowing the gap.
0:12:32 > 0:12:34China becomes the largest global economy and seven or eight
0:12:34 > 0:12:39times the size of the UK.
0:12:39 > 0:12:41Look ahead to 2050, and India is several times the size
0:12:41 > 0:12:47of the German economy and no European economy is in the top six.
0:12:47 > 0:12:51With this economic change, will come political change.
0:12:51 > 0:12:58The West will no longer dominate.
0:12:58 > 0:13:03And Europe, to retain the ability to protect its interests and values,
0:13:03 > 0:13:09will need to form a strong bloc with the power collectively to do
0:13:09 > 0:13:11what no European nation alone will be able to do individually.
0:13:11 > 0:13:15Regard the regions of the world today.
0:13:15 > 0:13:22Everywhere, in reaction to this fundamental shift in geo-politics,
0:13:22 > 0:13:24countries are banding together, from south-east Asia
0:13:24 > 0:13:27to the continent of Africa.
0:13:27 > 0:13:32Nations are in a desperate scramble to find their place in a world
0:13:32 > 0:13:36in which no one wants to be forced to choose between the big powers or
0:13:36 > 0:13:41unable to withstand their demands.
0:13:41 > 0:13:44For Europe, much more is at stake than trade or commerce.
0:13:44 > 0:13:47Take defence.
0:13:47 > 0:13:57Yes, Nato remains the cornerstone of Western security policy.
0:14:02 > 0:14:04under this administration, is signalling the limits
0:14:04 > 0:14:05of its appetite for military
0:14:05 > 0:14:08commitment, and where current events in Turkey show the fragility of some
0:14:08 > 0:14:10of the assumptions of alliance within Nato, it is foolish,
0:14:10 > 0:14:15indeed dangerous, for Europe not to have the independent capacity
0:14:15 > 0:14:24to protect its interests.
0:14:24 > 0:14:26If the SAHEL erupts who will bear the brunt of the eruption?
0:14:26 > 0:14:27Europe.
0:14:27 > 0:14:30But who will we be obliged to call upon?
0:14:30 > 0:14:33The USA.
0:14:33 > 0:14:36Of course, Britain can maintain a close relationship on defence
0:14:36 > 0:14:38even outside the EU.
0:14:38 > 0:14:44It still represents 25% of European defence spending.
0:14:44 > 0:14:46I welcome the British PM's speech to the Munich conference
0:14:46 > 0:14:49and the excellent paper recently from the German Council
0:14:49 > 0:14:50on Foreign Relations.
0:14:50 > 0:14:55But how much more effective would such cooperation be
0:14:55 > 0:14:58if we were still part of Europe's decision-making structure?
0:14:58 > 0:15:01Instead we are in the surreal position of proclaiming our desire
0:15:01 > 0:15:06for tighter European cooperation in defence just as we withdraw
0:15:06 > 0:15:12from Europe's political framework for doing so.
0:15:12 > 0:15:16How can we police our borders except through common
0:15:16 > 0:15:19strategy, or fight terrorism but through enhanced integration
0:15:19 > 0:15:23of intelligence and surveillance, or protect our privacy from either
0:15:23 > 0:15:25foreign Governments or corporate behemoths other than by the strength
0:15:25 > 0:15:31which comes from size?
0:15:31 > 0:15:36Do we seriously believe that if we had approached negotiation
0:15:36 > 0:15:40on climate change as individual countries, rather than as Europe,
0:15:40 > 0:15:50we would have driven the agenda in the way we did?
0:15:53 > 0:15:54But it is more than this.
0:15:54 > 0:15:56Our values are also in play.
0:15:56 > 0:16:01Brexit is happening at a pivotal point in Western politics.
0:16:01 > 0:16:03Parts of our politics are today fragmented, polarised,
0:16:03 > 0:16:05occasionally paralysed, with visceral cultural
0:16:05 > 0:16:11as well as economic rifts, with politicians who strive
0:16:11 > 0:16:15for answers swept aside by those riding the anger, a sterile
0:16:15 > 0:16:19policy agenda focusing on who to stigmatise,
0:16:19 > 0:16:26and barely touching the real forces of change which are technological,
0:16:26 > 0:16:30and conventional media locked in an ugly embrace with social
0:16:30 > 0:16:37media to create a toxic, scandal driven, rancorous
0:16:37 > 0:16:42environment for debate which risks destruction of democracy's soul.
0:16:42 > 0:16:46Meanwhile there are new powers emerging who look sceptically
0:16:46 > 0:16:50at Western democracy today and think there may be a different,
0:16:50 > 0:16:57less democratic model to follow.
0:16:57 > 0:17:02For the first time, not just our power but our value system
0:17:02 > 0:17:08is going to be contested.
0:17:08 > 0:17:12We need at this moment for Europe to regain its confidence,
0:17:12 > 0:17:14take courage and set a course for the future which re-kindles
0:17:14 > 0:17:18the spirit of optimism.
0:17:18 > 0:17:22I believe firmly in the trans-Atlantic alliance.
0:17:22 > 0:17:27Despite what it may sometimes seem, so do most Americans.
0:17:27 > 0:17:35In the new geo-politics, we need each other for reasons just
0:17:35 > 0:17:37as compelling as those which thrust us together
0:17:37 > 0:17:39in the early 20th century.
0:17:39 > 0:17:43Especially at a time when America appears pre-occupied
0:17:43 > 0:17:50with its own political upheaval and is hard to read and easy
0:17:50 > 0:17:55to parody, Europe should be far-sighted enough to keep
0:17:55 > 0:18:01the alliance strong, to be determined in defending our values
0:18:01 > 0:18:07from those who would de-stabilise us, and to send a message
0:18:07 > 0:18:09to the rest of the world that Europe will grow
0:18:09 > 0:18:17in power in the 21st century precisely because of those values.
0:18:17 > 0:18:20None of this can in any way be advanced by Britain's
0:18:20 > 0:18:22departure from Europe.
0:18:22 > 0:18:24It rips out of Europe one of the alliance's most
0:18:24 > 0:18:26sustained advocates.
0:18:26 > 0:18:29It weakens Europe's standing and power the world over.
0:18:29 > 0:18:32It reduces the effectiveness of the Single Market
0:18:32 > 0:18:36by removing from it Europe's second largest economy.
0:18:36 > 0:18:43And Britain out of Europe will ultimately be a focal point
0:18:43 > 0:18:48of disunity, when the requirement for unity is so manifest.
0:18:48 > 0:18:53No matter how we try, it will create a competitive
0:18:53 > 0:18:57pole to that of Europe, economically and politically
0:18:57 > 0:19:02to the detriment of both of us.
0:19:02 > 0:19:07More contentiously, I believe it risks an imbalance
0:19:07 > 0:19:11in the delicate compromise that is the European polity.
0:19:11 > 0:19:13Britain supports the nation-state as the point of originating
0:19:13 > 0:19:18legitimacy for European integration.
0:19:18 > 0:19:20Others are more comfortable with the notion of ever closer
0:19:20 > 0:19:26Union leading over time to a more federal structure.
0:19:26 > 0:19:30The truth is that the anxieties which led to the Brexit vote
0:19:30 > 0:19:32are felt all over Europe.
0:19:32 > 0:19:36They're not specific to the British.
0:19:36 > 0:19:40Read the latest Eurobarometer of public opinion.
0:19:40 > 0:19:42In many countries, similar referendums might have
0:19:42 > 0:19:47had similar results.
0:19:47 > 0:19:53I know from experience that Britain is often the argumentative
0:19:53 > 0:19:56partner who speaks up, but there is frequently
0:19:56 > 0:19:59a large group of others sheltering behind us,
0:19:59 > 0:20:02glad there is a voice in the room articulating what others think
0:20:02 > 0:20:07but are shy of saying.
0:20:07 > 0:20:12Even the famed Franco-German motor can need British spare parts
0:20:12 > 0:20:15and lubricants even if they come with the odd bit of grit,
0:20:15 > 0:20:18and from time to time, British mechanics can work
0:20:18 > 0:20:21with others to create a back-up engine.
0:20:21 > 0:20:27President Macron has sensibly proposed a series of Europe wide
0:20:27 > 0:20:36debates on Europe's future in recognition of the strains
0:20:37 > 0:20:38in European politics.
0:20:38 > 0:20:44These will not work, however, if they become merely a way
0:20:44 > 0:20:47of explaining to European citizens why their worries are misplaced.
0:20:47 > 0:20:49It should be a real dialogue.
0:20:49 > 0:20:51The populism convulsing Europe must be understood
0:20:51 > 0:20:55before it can be defeated.
0:20:55 > 0:21:00Immigration is a genuine fear with causes which cannot be dismissed.
0:21:00 > 0:21:04Many feel the European project is too much directed
0:21:04 > 0:21:08to the enlargement of European institutions rather than to projects
0:21:08 > 0:21:11which deliver change in people's daily lives.
0:21:11 > 0:21:15There is much good work done by this and the previous Commission
0:21:15 > 0:21:18to reduce regulation and bureaucracy, unfortunately
0:21:18 > 0:21:22usually ignored or over-shadowed.
0:21:22 > 0:21:24But we should recognise this is still an issue
0:21:24 > 0:21:27for people all over Europe.
0:21:27 > 0:21:31The things Europe is doing to build its capability to make
0:21:31 > 0:21:34the lives of Europeans better - in energy, digitalisation,
0:21:34 > 0:21:37infrastructure, education, defence and security need to be
0:21:37 > 0:21:42driven forward with much greater intensity.
0:21:42 > 0:21:46And the difference between those in the Euro zone and those
0:21:46 > 0:21:54outside it will require different governance arrangements.
0:21:54 > 0:21:58Europe knows it needs reform.
0:21:58 > 0:22:05Reform in Europe is key to getting Britain to change its mind.
0:22:05 > 0:22:13There should surely be a way of alignment.
0:22:13 > 0:22:17A comprehensive plan on immigration control,
0:22:17 > 0:22:20which preserves Europe's values but is consistent with the concerns
0:22:20 > 0:22:24of its people and includes sensitivity to the challenges
0:22:24 > 0:22:31of the freedom of movement principle, together with a road map
0:22:31 > 0:22:36for future European reform which recognises the issues
0:22:36 > 0:22:38underpinning the turmoil in traditional European politics
0:22:38 > 0:22:41and is in line with what many European leaders are already
0:22:41 > 0:22:47advocating, would be right for Europe and timely for the
0:22:47 > 0:22:52evolving British debate on Brexit.
0:22:52 > 0:22:56If at the point Britain is seized of a real choice,
0:22:56 > 0:23:03not about whether we like Europe or not ? the question of June 2016 ?
0:23:03 > 0:23:07but whether on mature reflection the final deal
0:23:07 > 0:23:11the British Government offers is better than what we have, if,
0:23:11 > 0:23:19at this moment, Europe was to offer a parallel path to Brexit of Britain
0:23:19 > 0:23:21staying in a reforming Europe, that would throw open
0:23:21 > 0:23:26the debate to transformation.
0:23:26 > 0:23:30People will say it can't happen.
0:23:30 > 0:23:36To which I say in these times in politics anything can happen.
0:23:36 > 0:23:39In any event, it depends on what magnitude of
0:23:39 > 0:23:45decision you think this is.
0:23:45 > 0:23:47There are errors in politics of passing significance.
0:23:47 > 0:23:52And there are mistakes of destiny.
0:23:52 > 0:23:55If we believe and I do, that this is of the latter kind, we cannot
0:23:55 > 0:23:57afford passive acquiescence.
0:23:57 > 0:23:59Those whose vision gave rise to the dream of a Europe unified
0:23:59 > 0:24:04in peace after centuries of war and whose determination
0:24:04 > 0:24:06translated that dream into practical endeavour,
0:24:06 > 0:24:13their ghosts should be our inspiration.
0:24:13 > 0:24:17They would not have yielded to fatalism and neither should we.
0:24:17 > 0:24:21We have months, perhaps weeks to think, plan and act.
0:24:22 > 0:24:31Let's be clear.
0:24:32 > 0:24:35Even if Brexit is Britain s future, and yours is a European Union
0:24:35 > 0:24:40without Britain, we can't alter our geography,
0:24:40 > 0:24:50history or manifold ties of culture and nature.
0:24:51 > 0:24:54This is a divorce that can never mean a physical separation.
0:24:54 > 0:24:59We are consigned to co-habiting the same space, trying to get along
0:24:59 > 0:25:04but resenting our differences and re-living what broke us apart,
0:25:04 > 0:25:08awkward silences at the breakfast table, arguing over the rules
0:25:08 > 0:25:16with no escape from each other.
0:25:16 > 0:25:20But ? and here is the supreme irony ? with so much in common
0:25:20 > 0:25:21and still liking each other.
0:25:21 > 0:25:31Better to make our future work together.
0:25:32 > 0:25:34If we don't, a future generation will, but their verdict
0:25:34 > 0:25:40on ours will be harsh for time wasted and opportunity spurned.
0:25:40 > 0:25:43It doesn't take a miracle.
0:25:43 > 0:25:44It takes leadership.
0:25:44 > 0:25:54And now is when we need it.
0:25:54 > 0:26:08Thank you. APPLAUSE
0:26:08 > 0:26:13Thank you very much.I will have a couple of questions before opening
0:26:13 > 0:26:21it up to the audience. You mentioned towards the end that we have only
0:26:21 > 0:26:27weeks or months. We are all aware that we have the Article 50 clock
0:26:27 > 0:26:32ticking in the background. What needs to be done in these months and
0:26:32 > 0:26:37weeks and how can we stop that clock from taking?It needs to become
0:26:37 > 0:26:44clear that there is no escape from the dilemma. Either you are close to
0:26:44 > 0:26:49Europe and you have to abide by the rules, but minimises the economic
0:26:49 > 0:26:54damage or you are going the own way but you are not part of the economic
0:26:54 > 0:26:58system and you are going to do damage to yourself. That dilemma
0:26:58 > 0:27:03needs to become clear. It needs to become clear but I think it is
0:27:03 > 0:27:06becoming clear that there is not a majority in parliament to do damage
0:27:06 > 0:27:11to our country. The third thing that needs to happen is we need to
0:27:11 > 0:27:20realise on both sides that March 2019 is the data that has to be
0:27:20 > 0:27:27sorted out before then. You know, we have spent one year with the British
0:27:27 > 0:27:33Government basically trying to say that as a way of having our cake and
0:27:33 > 0:27:44eating it. It is clear that there is not. I think now is when you are
0:27:44 > 0:27:47getting and Excel rating understanding of what the basic
0:27:47 > 0:27:51problems are. Northern Ireland shows it very clearly. I think British
0:27:51 > 0:27:55opinion will start to move once people realise that this is not
0:27:55 > 0:27:59about being a tough week negotiator, this is about a fundamental problem
0:27:59 > 0:28:05that cannot be resolved by the exercise of political manoeuvring.
0:28:05 > 0:28:11It can only be resolved by coming to a choice that is either going to
0:28:11 > 0:28:17lead you to long-term economic or short-term economic damage and
0:28:17 > 0:28:22possibly long-term economic damage, or ending up any situation that I
0:28:22 > 0:28:25think British people will find unsatisfactory of abiding by British
0:28:25 > 0:28:31rules and not being a decision maker any more. If someone can find a way
0:28:31 > 0:28:35out of that difficulty, I am ready to hear it but I cannot see it. That
0:28:35 > 0:28:42is what is going to accelerate this process.You were talking about the
0:28:42 > 0:28:46need to have a reformed Europe as well or a plea for a reformed
0:28:46 > 0:28:52Europe. What would you say to those who say, we have been here before.
0:28:52 > 0:28:57The renegotiation with David Cameron really was what was on the table in
0:28:57 > 0:29:03terms of reforms and it was rejected in the referendum.Yes, I think what
0:29:03 > 0:29:07I would say is European reform fit into three categories. There are
0:29:07 > 0:29:15things that people across Europe are anxious about. I would put
0:29:15 > 0:29:20immigration and anxieties about that as the number one question. I think
0:29:20 > 0:29:25that a combination of what Europe wants to do in strengthening its own
0:29:25 > 0:29:30external borders and a mix of Britain in forcing what rules can
0:29:30 > 0:29:36enforce them freedom of movement, but also with some latitude on the
0:29:36 > 0:29:40UDP inside. That, in my view, would go in long way to fixing the
0:29:40 > 0:29:47anxieties. -- latitude on the European side. These are all things
0:29:47 > 0:29:52we discussed over a long period of time. The second area were things I
0:29:52 > 0:29:58was talking about, comment energy and defence. Europe is gearing
0:29:58 > 0:30:02itself up to talk about these questions anyway. It is not as if we
0:30:02 > 0:30:06are going against the grain of what Europe once. We need to set out some
0:30:06 > 0:30:11clear principles where we are going to go and thirdly is the issue
0:30:11 > 0:30:18around governance changes within the euro zone and outside the euro zone.
0:30:18 > 0:30:21Most people in Europe understand this has got to happen. I do not
0:30:21 > 0:30:24think we need to decide all of this now because that would be far too
0:30:24 > 0:30:32quick a timetable but there needs to be a clear sense that the anxieties,
0:30:32 > 0:30:38not just of British citizens, but of European citizens are being
0:30:38 > 0:30:41addressed, and there is a process in place for a Europe that is going to
0:30:41 > 0:30:45make sense of the different arrangements of the European
0:30:45 > 0:30:49countries. Frankly, it is also a matter of putting what we have in
0:30:49 > 0:30:52Europe today against what the Government is going to offer us.
0:30:52 > 0:31:01Look, I know people say to me this is a certain exercise and it does
0:31:01 > 0:31:08not possible to change this but I think the debate is opening up now.
0:31:08 > 0:31:13The question... I understand the frustrations in Europe but we are
0:31:13 > 0:31:20going to have to find a way to make this work because of working in new.
0:31:20 > 0:31:25Thank you. I will open it up to the audience. I will take two or three
0:31:25 > 0:31:31questions together and if you could please identify who you are and the
0:31:31 > 0:31:35organisation you represent. I have already got three or four fewer. I
0:31:35 > 0:31:45will start with freezer.Yes, the microphone is just coming. I
0:31:45 > 0:31:48remember you did three good speeches out of Britain when you were Prime
0:31:48 > 0:31:52Minister. My question really is to the audience that you once
0:31:52 > 0:31:57represented in the north-east of England, one of the highest leave
0:31:57 > 0:32:01votes. Do you think the arguments you put forward today are
0:32:01 > 0:32:05significant enough to change their views in terms of getting support
0:32:05 > 0:32:08for Europe? Where is the leadership you advocated at the very end going
0:32:08 > 0:32:23to come from?Thank you. John, a senior adviser at the BBC. Thank you
0:32:23 > 0:32:33for an excellent speech.I think... It is very difficult for many of us
0:32:33 > 0:32:44here... You have made fascinating observations. I wanted to ask you
0:32:44 > 0:32:53that you consider a Brexit Britain as emerging as a competing poke to
0:32:53 > 0:32:57the union. Could you elaborate on that a bit more and how destructive
0:32:57 > 0:33:08it may become?Thank you. I will take one more question.Thank you.
0:33:08 > 0:33:14Mark Johnson. Mr Blair, 20 years ago when he became Prime Minister you
0:33:14 > 0:33:18try and the press barons in order that the new Labour programme could
0:33:18 > 0:33:26go ahead. Many of those same press barons today continue to pour poison
0:33:26 > 0:33:32into the public debate in the UK about this situation. So far as I
0:33:32 > 0:33:36can recall, you have never called them out for that behaviour. Why is
0:33:36 > 0:33:41that so and reduce the prepared to do so now, given all that that is at
0:33:41 > 0:33:49stake? Thank you very much.Right. LAUGHTER
0:33:49 > 0:33:53I think those are the three British questions even though we are in
0:33:53 > 0:34:03Brussels. But they are very good questions. I represented is
0:34:03 > 0:34:07constituency in the north of England that voted substantially to leave.
0:34:07 > 0:34:12My successor was a strong advocate for remain. He stayed a strong
0:34:12 > 0:34:20advocate of remain and, you know, I think a much better position for the
0:34:20 > 0:34:25Labour Party to be in today is to say what it really believes, which
0:34:25 > 0:34:29is that Brexit is not an answer to the questions that people have. If
0:34:29 > 0:34:34you are someone who is worried about unemployment, lack of opportunity,
0:34:34 > 0:34:38communities left behind, Brexit is going to make all of those problems
0:34:38 > 0:34:44worse. Brexit affects regions like the north of England is much more
0:34:44 > 0:34:49than regions and the south, like London. At some point I think the
0:34:49 > 0:34:54most powerful thing to say about Brexit, if I were back in politics
0:34:54 > 0:34:59today and Leader of the Opposition, and unlikely hypothesis, I know, but
0:34:59 > 0:35:07if I was I would be hammering the Tories all of the time. Not just on
0:35:07 > 0:35:11the destructive impact of Brexit but the distracting impact of Brexit.
0:35:11 > 0:35:16All of the issues of the country are not getting dealt with because there
0:35:16 > 0:35:19is no more energy. If you are in the north-east of England you are
0:35:19 > 0:35:25worried about the economy, health service, jobs, we could be making
0:35:25 > 0:35:32that case powerfully and I believe in the end, you know, this is an
0:35:32 > 0:35:36argument that can persuade large numbers of people. You're never
0:35:36 > 0:35:40going to persuade the people that they are a minority who have this
0:35:40 > 0:35:44view that Britain has got to be out of Europe because that is what we
0:35:44 > 0:35:50will allow Britain to become what it once was. You are never going to
0:35:50 > 0:35:54persuade those people. There are other people in that coalition that
0:35:54 > 0:35:59brought us Brexit who did a cost benefit analysis and believed that
0:35:59 > 0:36:04if they got out of Brexit there was 350 million extra we would get for
0:36:04 > 0:36:09the health service. It turns out it is not, there is less because our
0:36:09 > 0:36:13growth rates are down. I think those people could be persuaded if we took
0:36:13 > 0:36:20a strong leadership position. To the question about Britain as a
0:36:20 > 0:36:33competing power. You see, if Britain comes out of Europe... And we come
0:36:33 > 0:36:40out of the single market and Customs union, inevitably we are going to
0:36:40 > 0:36:43have to restructure our economy. We're going to have to market
0:36:43 > 0:36:48ourselves differently as a company. We have attracted investment into
0:36:48 > 0:36:52Britain on the basis people like the language, culture, the quite like
0:36:52 > 0:36:57the British and it is a good place to be for the European market. You
0:36:57 > 0:37:01get out of all of that, you're going to find a different way forward. I
0:37:01 > 0:37:08think even though the rest of Europe will say we do not want this and the
0:37:08 > 0:37:12British Government is already saying we do not want this. David Davis
0:37:12 > 0:37:17gave his speech the other week. We're going to be driven to it. By
0:37:17 > 0:37:21the way, the people behind this Brexit project, that is what they
0:37:21 > 0:37:28want. Their dislike of Europe is the political culture of Europe. Their
0:37:28 > 0:37:32dislike of Europe is all the stuff about solidarity and human rights
0:37:32 > 0:37:43and this social Democratic climate in Europe. They do not like it.
0:37:43 > 0:37:45They think the Thatcherite revolution in Britain was never
0:37:45 > 0:37:51fully completed. Further Brexit is the first step in a two step change
0:37:51 > 0:37:57in Britain. The next step is indeed to get Britain to compete on the
0:37:57 > 0:38:03basis of saying look at these Europeans, they have got all this
0:38:03 > 0:38:08regulation and bureaucracy and we are Britain. So whatever people say,
0:38:08 > 0:38:13I think this is what would happen. And the destructive impact of that
0:38:13 > 0:38:17would be immense because it will weaken Europe, it will cause great
0:38:17 > 0:38:28stresses and strains. I came from... I got the train from London to
0:38:28 > 0:38:32Brussels, it is a shorter journey from going from London to you did
0:38:32 > 0:38:37your Ph.D. In Edinburgh. We are going to be in this crazy situation
0:38:37 > 0:38:44where we are right in the same geographical space with all these
0:38:44 > 0:38:50ties and if we are out with those European markets, we will be
0:38:50 > 0:38:54constantly looking for ways of demonstrating a relevance and
0:38:54 > 0:39:01demonstrating that it was the right thing to have done. So I think
0:39:01 > 0:39:06this... I am afraid it is inevitable if we go ahead with this and I think
0:39:06 > 0:39:10it will be bad for both of us. On the press barons, I have made it
0:39:10 > 0:39:21clear recently, this is what I call the media cartel. On the right of
0:39:21 > 0:39:32the British media, this has been a major factor in creating this sort
0:39:32 > 0:39:39of toxic atmosphere around Europe, of sustaining the Brexit campaign
0:39:39 > 0:39:44and have no by the way, if you read those newspapers in Britain, you
0:39:44 > 0:39:49will think the whole thing is going really well. Europeans are obviously
0:39:49 > 0:39:58unreasonable. Apart from them, it is going very well. The one thing... My
0:39:58 > 0:40:02differences to Jeremy Corbyn are well-known, but the one thing I do
0:40:02 > 0:40:07think about the last election is it also showed the limits of their
0:40:07 > 0:40:13ability. But it is a powerful factor and I think it is a dismissive
0:40:13 > 0:40:20factor.Thank you.
0:40:27 > 0:40:33My name is Paul Adamson. Until you mentioned talking about immigration
0:40:33 > 0:40:39and free movement, the need for a latitude, your choice of word on EU
0:40:39 > 0:40:4727. You are a strategic Don Quixote. Based on talks you have had in the
0:40:47 > 0:41:00last few months, how confident are you that that will be forthcoming?
0:41:00 > 0:41:09Thank you for your speech. You touched upon the notion of European
0:41:09 > 0:41:18reform. There are different models out there today, the IPPR is showing
0:41:18 > 0:41:23assured market model, there is the continental partnership. I would be
0:41:23 > 0:41:35interested in your thoughts on this? Ellie Mears. You talked about
0:41:35 > 0:41:41European reform and a big part of that is reforming the immigration
0:41:41 > 0:41:44system and coming up with a comprehensive system. How do you
0:41:44 > 0:41:52then square the circle of there being two very different outcomes in
0:41:52 > 0:41:57terms of immigration in Europe. In places like Germany, there was a big
0:41:57 > 0:42:02welcome for refugees and we do have a massive war on our doorstep. But
0:42:02 > 0:42:05then you also have the Eastern European countries who would say
0:42:05 > 0:42:09that culturally they are not ready to take in refugees from other
0:42:09 > 0:42:16countries. How do you, in a comprehensive migration plan, how do
0:42:16 > 0:42:26you reconcile those two views?Poll, first of all on the issue of free
0:42:26 > 0:42:31movement. From my discussions with European leaders, if they thought
0:42:31 > 0:42:38Britain was serious about staying within Europe, then I think there
0:42:38 > 0:42:42would be a combination of a better deal from Europe than the wind David
0:42:42 > 0:42:47Cameron was able to secure, and also very importantly an understanding
0:42:47 > 0:42:52that Britain was going to have to apply for the freedom of movement
0:42:52 > 0:42:56rules more vigorously. It is important to be open about this with
0:42:56 > 0:43:02the British people. Governments prioritise the economy over
0:43:02 > 0:43:08controlling migration. We did it for sensible reasons. We had a booming
0:43:08 > 0:43:13economy and when you do an analysis of European migrant workers, it
0:43:13 > 0:43:18turns out we need most of them. And when you go through the categories,
0:43:18 > 0:43:22we have now got a problem in health service today because the downturn
0:43:22 > 0:43:27of European migrant workers. We need the high skilled workers and we need
0:43:27 > 0:43:33the students and the seasoned workers. The people who come to
0:43:33 > 0:43:40Britain looking for work, most of whom I suspect go into, end up
0:43:40 > 0:43:50working in bars and processing in London and the South, but if we want
0:43:50 > 0:43:55this, we could do what they do in Belgium, which is, you have to find
0:43:55 > 0:43:58work within a couple of months or you go back. There are lots of
0:43:58 > 0:44:03changes we could make if we want them. I think this is something for
0:44:03 > 0:44:07negotiation. But my feeling from talking to other European leaders is
0:44:07 > 0:44:13that people recognise emigration is a problem in the whole of Europe. If
0:44:13 > 0:44:17the price of European unity was addressing these issues, they would
0:44:17 > 0:44:23do it. In respect, Tom, what you're talking about and reform in Britain.
0:44:23 > 0:44:31I think the reforms are two sorts apart from what I was in an
0:44:31 > 0:44:34immigration. There are these institutional questions that are
0:44:34 > 0:44:38bound to be important, that our changes that many people are
0:44:38 > 0:44:46proposing. This is common in the European debate. The other thing is,
0:44:46 > 0:44:50I think... I have said this for a long, long time in Europe, one of
0:44:50 > 0:44:59the things we have got to do is present an agenda for change in
0:44:59 > 0:45:02Europe which coincides with what most people in Europe will think is
0:45:02 > 0:45:06going to improve their own lives. And by the way there are lots of
0:45:06 > 0:45:10things that Europe does that it never kind of talks about in the
0:45:10 > 0:45:15right way which would make a real difference. Let me give you some
0:45:15 > 0:45:21examples, digitalisation. We actually need... Wires at that
0:45:21 > 0:45:30Europe has not got big tech in the same way that America has? We have
0:45:30 > 0:45:36not created a genuine single market in the digital sphere. A common
0:45:36 > 0:45:40energy policy. A true common energy policy would reduce costs
0:45:40 > 0:45:46enormously. It could do that. Education today is not just about
0:45:46 > 0:45:51educating people, it is also a major part of serving the British economy
0:45:51 > 0:45:54and the European economy. There is much more we could do together in
0:45:54 > 0:46:00that sphere. If you talk about energy supply, Europe has today some
0:46:00 > 0:46:04quite bold plans as to how it is going to ensure its security of
0:46:04 > 0:46:08supply in the years to come. We could be making much more of these
0:46:08 > 0:46:13things for the people of Europe. And that means more to them than some of
0:46:13 > 0:46:18the more arcane institutional disputes that often dominate,
0:46:18 > 0:46:27costumes -- questions of European reform. I don't quite know what
0:46:27 > 0:46:32the... I know a lot of people in Britain are looking for cooperation
0:46:32 > 0:46:38out of the European Union and Europe which mean that we would still align
0:46:38 > 0:46:43ourselves with European rules. The one thing I am certain of
0:46:43 > 0:46:50politically, I am certain of this, is any compromise, and this is part
0:46:50 > 0:46:55of the problem that government has, any compromise that involves as
0:46:55 > 0:47:02abiding by European rules outside of Europe, is never going to attract
0:47:02 > 0:47:07the British people. And you will find, if it happens, you will find a
0:47:07 > 0:47:12large number of British people, and this is the whole point, the divide
0:47:12 > 0:47:18into two camps. There will be those whose the, that is not good enough,
0:47:18 > 0:47:23we want a clean break. It will causes damage, we will take the
0:47:23 > 0:47:27damage. There is another group of people who will say, we might as
0:47:27 > 0:47:31well stay. This is the problem. What the British government is trying to
0:47:31 > 0:47:34do is square that circle. The whole time they come back to the same
0:47:34 > 0:47:40thing. It is a kind of weird thing. The UDP negotiators, you know, they
0:47:40 > 0:47:51are trying to pull cards with EU... -- the European negotiators. There
0:47:51 > 0:47:57could be a steering wheel on the right hand or left hand. Every time
0:47:57 > 0:48:01the British negotiators turned up, they say, we will offer you a
0:48:01 > 0:48:05donkey. The European scene all, we're talking cars here. Then they
0:48:05 > 0:48:14come back weeks later, we have something else. That is not going to
0:48:14 > 0:48:20work. That is why the reform in Europe, in the end, it only really
0:48:20 > 0:48:26works in my view if it is for the British, if it is for the whole of
0:48:26 > 0:48:31Europe and Britain stay. Reform Britain which leaves Britain have in
0:48:31 > 0:48:38or have out, will not work. Finally on the immigration question, look, I
0:48:38 > 0:48:43am not... I think it is a really good question. Here is my feeling. I
0:48:43 > 0:48:49think even in Germany, there is a lot of anxiety about immigration
0:48:49 > 0:48:56questions. What is the problem with immigration? The problem is that
0:48:56 > 0:49:04there is no doubt that overall it is a good thing. You look at the
0:49:04 > 0:49:10successful economies of the world, there is immigration. You look for
0:49:10 > 0:49:15example, talking technology, look at the big companies in Silicon Valley,
0:49:15 > 0:49:20think of how many of those businesses have been start --
0:49:20 > 0:49:26started by immigrants. If I think of the two big companies in the UK in
0:49:26 > 0:49:31artificial intelligence, both of them started by migrants. So
0:49:31 > 0:49:38emigration, you know, improves economies, it brings a new energy,
0:49:38 > 0:49:44vitality and ideas and innovation. Remember, when Japan was going to
0:49:44 > 0:49:50overtake the world and become the great power, in the 1980s. So if we
0:49:50 > 0:49:55fast forward to today, one of the reasons why Japan has not succeeded
0:49:55 > 0:50:00in the way people thought they had, it is because of immigration.
0:50:00 > 0:50:04Immigration is a good thing for the company -- country, but it is a big
0:50:04 > 0:50:12change. And if you want to make immigration work, the way of dealing
0:50:12 > 0:50:16with it and the dilemma you quite rightly raised, is in my view you
0:50:16 > 0:50:21have got to have rules so you do not have prejudices. But if you do not
0:50:21 > 0:50:25have rules, you stimulate the claim it for prejudice. And the real
0:50:25 > 0:50:29problem that people have with immigration as they look at what is
0:50:29 > 0:50:33happening on Europe's borders and they think we cannot control this,
0:50:33 > 0:50:37they are coming in and they worry. They worry about the change in their
0:50:37 > 0:50:43society. I think in the UK's is the worry is less to do with immigration
0:50:43 > 0:50:49from within Europe than outside Europe. Particularly, again, to be
0:50:49 > 0:50:52frank about it, migration from majority Muslim countries where
0:50:52 > 0:50:55people are anxious about those who come and share the same value
0:50:55 > 0:51:02system. It is a problem. I know -- I think there is a way of dealing with
0:51:02 > 0:51:05the problem but it requires us to understand that the fears of
0:51:05 > 0:51:10immigration are not all prejudice, there are genuine anxieties. You
0:51:10 > 0:51:14have got to deal with the anxieties so you can register prejudice. But
0:51:14 > 0:51:20if you just kind of say, if you are a region -- raising emigration, you
0:51:20 > 0:51:26are an idiot. Then you lose the argument. In the Italian debate, in
0:51:26 > 0:51:32the Italian election, how big an issue is immigration? In my
0:51:32 > 0:51:39experience, Italy is a big factor. I think, if Europe takes a really
0:51:39 > 0:51:44strong, clear position on immigration, which distinguishes
0:51:44 > 0:51:47clearly between bills and prejudices, then I think we can come
0:51:47 > 0:51:52through it. But I think it will be a big mistake to think it is about
0:51:52 > 0:51:57Eastern Europe or Britain. It is a genuine problem and it can only be
0:51:57 > 0:52:01dealt with whether far-sighted policy that has an understanding of
0:52:01 > 0:52:05people's desire for control at the same time as a complete
0:52:05 > 0:52:09identification of European values, solidarity and basic human rights
0:52:09 > 0:52:15and so on.
0:52:15 > 0:52:29Thank you. Prime Minister, if I understood correctly, you partly
0:52:29 > 0:52:35blame the EU side for Brexit. Did I understand correctly? In the
0:52:35 > 0:52:38negotiations right now, do you feel that the European Union is not doing
0:52:38 > 0:52:43enough to keep Britain in because they are saying that they are sorry,
0:52:43 > 0:52:46but if they are sorry, should they do more to give some sort of option
0:52:46 > 0:52:54to Britain? Either doing that? I hope Brexit does not happen but if
0:52:54 > 0:53:04it does happen, are we going to see a second Scottish referendum?
0:53:04 > 0:53:09Northern Ireland getting closer to the Republic of Ireland than to the
0:53:09 > 0:53:14united kingdom and England? How do you see this? And if it happens,
0:53:14 > 0:53:17Brexit, Turkey is ready to fill the gap.
0:53:17 > 0:53:26LAUGHTER
0:53:28 > 0:53:34I am working on the youth employment project.Young people were in favour
0:53:34 > 0:53:42of a remain foot. Although... Can they compromise the long-term
0:53:42 > 0:53:49future? There is a sense of betrayal. How important as those in
0:53:49 > 0:53:53the coming weeks and months to rely on listening to young people's voice
0:53:53 > 0:54:03in a debate for a second referendum? Thank you. The frontier, please.No,
0:54:03 > 0:54:09behind you. Sorry. I beg your pardon. Thank you for another great
0:54:09 > 0:54:17speech. I wanted to ask you something about the euro. You spoke
0:54:17 > 0:54:22mostly about migration, about the single market but would you think
0:54:22 > 0:54:31that the fact that the UK is not a part of the euro, and there is no
0:54:31 > 0:54:37leader, even half litre, in the UK who has been advocating entry of the
0:54:37 > 0:54:45UK into the euro, do you think this is really a difficulty? That in a
0:54:45 > 0:54:53sense the UK outside of the euro was never, and would never be at the
0:54:53 > 0:54:58centre of the European project as it has evolved, because the European
0:54:58 > 0:55:03project is not just about, it is about the single market, but it is
0:55:03 > 0:55:10about something more. Is that not a danger that the UK is on the margin
0:55:10 > 0:55:16of the European project as it is in 2018? There is nonetheless this
0:55:16 > 0:55:22difficulty of the UK and does that not mean that we need to have a
0:55:22 > 0:55:28project between Europe and the UK about what puts us together, which
0:55:28 > 0:55:33is the single market? It is not the EU, but it is the single market part
0:55:33 > 0:55:38of the EU. Is that not how we should think of the future relationship?
0:55:38 > 0:55:47Thank you. So,... LAUGHTER
0:55:47 > 0:55:59The first question was very nicely put at the end there. And I always
0:55:59 > 0:56:03remember when I had the presidency of the European Union, the
0:56:03 > 0:56:09negotiations with Turkey, but things have changed since then, let's say.
0:56:09 > 0:56:18But, no, I do not think... I think the European negotiators are doing
0:56:18 > 0:56:23what they have been called upon by Europe to do. I think the one thing
0:56:23 > 0:56:30I would say is, if it looks like... Obviously, this is very apparent to
0:56:30 > 0:56:36me. In Britain the whole debate is Brexit. Every day it is Brexit. Even
0:56:36 > 0:56:43I wake up and I'd think, it is Brexit again. There is a groundhog
0:56:43 > 0:56:49day quality that comes to this. I am acutely aware of the fact that if
0:56:49 > 0:56:52you are in Germany or France or Italy, you're not talking about
0:56:52 > 0:57:02Brexit the whole time. What I would say is that if it looks like Britain
0:57:02 > 0:57:06is genuinely opening up the debate in the way I have described. If it
0:57:06 > 0:57:11is going to become clear that the Government is going to find it hard
0:57:11 > 0:57:15to get a proposition through Parliament, I think it is important
0:57:15 > 0:57:19that Europe also recognises the purpose of a speech today that if we
0:57:19 > 0:57:23can avoid this, it is also good for us. We are not doing Britain a
0:57:23 > 0:57:27favour, it is going to be damaging for Europe is Brexit goes ahead.
0:57:27 > 0:57:33That is the right way to look at it. I think in respect of the UK, at one
0:57:33 > 0:57:39level I think short-term, even if Brexit happens, even if the worst
0:57:39 > 0:57:43type of Brexit happens, you are not going to break the UK up.
0:57:43 > 0:57:48Short-term. But I think long term it will impose real strains because
0:57:48 > 0:57:52that is no answer to this Irish border question. People keep
0:57:52 > 0:57:56treating the Irish border question is if it was separate from the
0:57:56 > 0:58:02overall dilemma. It is not. It is a metaphor for the overall dilemma.
0:58:02 > 0:58:05The problem in Northern Ireland is the problem you will have really
0:58:05 > 0:58:09come to the financial sector. You're either in the single market and in
0:58:09 > 0:58:14the rules and that is fine, or your outfit, in which case it is going to
0:58:14 > 0:58:20be damaging. I think in time, therefore, my worry is not in the
0:58:20 > 0:58:26immediate term but it does overtime, likewise in Scotland. That is where
0:58:26 > 0:58:32we are. I think in respect of young people, yes, I think this is a big
0:58:32 > 0:58:36issue. I met a group of young people the other day who had formed
0:58:36 > 0:58:40themselves into one of the several groups who are agitating to have a
0:58:40 > 0:58:47final say on the deal. I do think... I know this from my own children.
0:58:47 > 0:58:55They do feel that they can see the way the world is changing much
0:58:55 > 0:58:59easier than the older generation because they are comfortable with
0:58:59 > 0:59:06the notion of difference. I always say to people, when I was growing up
0:59:06 > 0:59:13in the north of England in County Durham, I remember the day, I was 12
0:59:13 > 0:59:22years old, when I met the first person who wasn't white. If I looked
0:59:22 > 0:59:29round the table at one of my youngest sons are big parties, he is
0:59:29 > 0:59:3517 now, but through the years, there were different people of different
0:59:35 > 0:59:40faiths, colours, and it has been natural. I think young people are
0:59:40 > 0:59:46not frightened by this, the difference, it is opportunity,
0:59:46 > 0:59:56worries about costs of tuition fees. I think there is a profound sense of
0:59:56 > 1:00:00betrayal for young people. It is important if we do get to final say
1:00:00 > 1:00:04on the deal is that there is a real dialogue between the generations
1:00:04 > 1:00:09will younger people say to the older generation, come on, this is our
1:00:09 > 1:00:13future. Anyway, we will see. The final question about the euro is a
1:00:13 > 1:00:19very difficult but very pertinent question. Look, my view about the
1:00:19 > 1:00:24euro was always put equate it was the right thing for Britain. My
1:00:24 > 1:00:30worry was economic. I think if you look back at the creation of the
1:00:30 > 1:00:36Eurozone, probably it would have been better if it had been created
1:00:36 > 1:00:46any more organic way. I remember vividly the dinner that we had when
1:00:46 > 1:00:53I was the first president of the European Union in 1998, I think. We
1:00:53 > 1:01:01had all the European leaders around the table, it was pre-imagined. I
1:01:01 > 1:01:03was trying to raise the argument because I had come into power, we
1:01:03 > 1:01:09were not going to join the euro but I was keen to leave the door open
1:01:09 > 1:01:13for a future time if Britain came to the view it was the right thing to
1:01:13 > 1:01:17do. I was putting the question of whether it would be better to start
1:01:17 > 1:01:22with the core of European countries and start up from those. I remember
1:01:22 > 1:01:26the Swedish premised at the time coming in and giving a very eloquent
1:01:26 > 1:01:31and quite prescient analysis of what the future problems of the euro
1:01:31 > 1:01:37might be. I remember it because Helmut Kohl is to come to the
1:01:37 > 1:01:43meetings and he was a large presence in the room. I was remember that
1:01:43 > 1:01:50he... Everyone else had the napkin on the need -- on their neat, but he
1:01:50 > 1:01:56would put it there. We were having a discussion and he put down his knife
1:01:56 > 1:02:02and fork and said, no, we're going to do this together. Everyone is
1:02:02 > 1:02:06going to be in at the same time. It is apolitical project, it is not
1:02:06 > 1:02:10just about economic. That is what is going to happen.
1:02:10 > 1:02:16LAUGHTER That is what happened. I think
1:02:16 > 1:02:24history will debate the correctness of that, or otherwise. I got the
1:02:24 > 1:02:28politics but I think the economic 's is an issue. I think going forward
1:02:28 > 1:02:33you are right that what we can do is how we concentrate on how we
1:02:33 > 1:02:39complete the single market in a way that lays a stronger foundation for
1:02:39 > 1:02:44the single currency. There are many areas in the single market not yet
1:02:44 > 1:02:48completed. One of the things that is most restricting for people like
1:02:48 > 1:02:52myself about the whole Brexit debate is the extraordinary irony that the
1:02:52 > 1:02:57two things at the British Government, Labour or Conservative,
1:02:57 > 1:03:00always agreed on and always fought for was the single market and
1:03:00 > 1:03:05enlargement. Now we have reached a situation where was Brexit the
1:03:05 > 1:03:10reason we say we want Brexit is because of the migrants from eastern
1:03:10 > 1:03:15Europe and we want out of the single market because that means we have to
1:03:15 > 1:03:19abide by the single market's rules. It is an extraordinary thing we have
1:03:19 > 1:03:23come to. I do believe this relationship can be repaired. It
1:03:23 > 1:03:30will beef important to focus on that. -- be important. There is a
1:03:30 > 1:03:33difference with the European countries and that is going to
1:03:33 > 1:03:37happen anyway. There are several countries outside the euro zone and
1:03:37 > 1:03:44will stay for the future at least outside of the Eurozone. I think it
1:03:44 > 1:03:50can be mailed to work for the both of us. We have to accept there is
1:03:50 > 1:03:58going to be different tiers of integration. I am not keen on
1:03:58 > 1:04:02concepts of two speed Europe kind of thing, you have to remain with the
1:04:02 > 1:04:05flexibility but there is no doubt, and already there is true, there is
1:04:05 > 1:04:10going to be a greater integration of countries inside the Eurozone than
1:04:10 > 1:04:15those who are not in it.Thank you very much. Unfortunately, we're
1:04:15 > 1:04:18running out of time. I note there were a lot of people who wanted to
1:04:18 > 1:04:25comment. Maybe we can continue this debate at a future point. I remember
1:04:25 > 1:04:33about 16 months ago we had Donald Tusk saying to us that the only
1:04:33 > 1:04:38alternative to have Brexit was no Brexit. So, 16 months on we still
1:04:38 > 1:04:45have that debate. As you said, time is very short. We have months, maybe
1:04:45 > 1:04:53weeks, to see whether there will be no Brexit. If it is not no Brexit,
1:04:53 > 1:04:57probably it will be a hard Brexit, with all of the consequences you
1:04:57 > 1:05:01have outlined. I am very grateful you may be time to come here and to
1:05:01 > 1:05:06also talk to us about what you think should be happening on the European
1:05:06 > 1:05:09side. So, thank you very much and I hope we can continue this
1:05:09 > 1:05:21discussion.Thank you very much. APPLAUSE