0:00:21 > 0:00:23Hello and welcome to CF99.
0:00:23 > 0:00:25On tonight's programme, David Cameron closes
0:00:25 > 0:00:29the Conservative Conference insisting Britain is on the right track.
0:00:29 > 0:00:32We'll be discussing his leadership and the future of his party.
0:00:32 > 0:00:35Also, the fight for power in the Supreme Court.
0:00:35 > 0:00:39The governments of Wales and the UK go head-to-head.
0:00:39 > 0:00:43Joining is in the Senedd are Suzy Davies AM of the Conservatives
0:00:43 > 0:00:48and the economist Dr Martin Rhisiart of the University of Glamorgan.
0:00:48 > 0:00:54Hywel Williams MP of Plaid Cymru is in our Bangor newsroom. Welcome.
0:00:54 > 0:00:57Well, after weeks of speeches, promises and the odd policy,
0:00:57 > 0:01:00conference season is over.
0:01:00 > 0:01:03The Conservatives were the last party to gather
0:01:03 > 0:01:06and the messages in Birmingham this week were pretty serious.
0:01:06 > 0:01:11More cuts, an economy to save and tough times still ahead.
0:01:11 > 0:01:14But things used to be very different for the party,
0:01:14 > 0:01:17as Arwyn Jones reports.
0:01:17 > 0:01:20# Weren't they good days?
0:01:20 > 0:01:24# Weren't they good days?
0:01:24 > 0:01:27# Weren't they good days? #
0:01:27 > 0:01:32The golden era for the Conservatives in Wales was surely the 1980s
0:01:32 > 0:01:34when they won 14 seats
0:01:34 > 0:01:39and nearly a third of the vote under the leadership of Thatcher.
0:01:39 > 0:01:44Doesn't that please you? Doesn't it please any of you? Oh, cheer up!
0:01:46 > 0:01:51But as the conference-goers flocked to Birmingham this week,
0:01:51 > 0:01:55they were short of high spirits.
0:01:55 > 0:02:00The economy is a mess and the opinion polls on the whole are limp.
0:02:00 > 0:02:03The party faithful were informed by the Chancellor
0:02:03 > 0:02:07that there are further cuts to come.
0:02:07 > 0:02:12They say they were left a fragile economy by the previous Labour government.
0:02:12 > 0:02:16But in order to try and give workers a boost, there was a new plan.
0:02:16 > 0:02:22You, the company, give your employees shares in the business.
0:02:22 > 0:02:25You, the employee, replace your old rights of unfair dismissal
0:02:25 > 0:02:28and redundancy with new rights of ownership.
0:02:28 > 0:02:32Get shares and become owners of the company you work for.
0:02:32 > 0:02:36Owners, workers and the taxman, all in it together.
0:02:36 > 0:02:40The opposition parties insist fewer cuts and more investment
0:02:40 > 0:02:45are what is needed, but the Government is dismissing that. But it wasn't always that way.
0:02:45 > 0:02:50The National Library archive shows different ideas.
0:02:50 > 0:02:53This is a pamphlet by former chancellor Geoffrey Howe
0:02:53 > 0:03:00and former MP Tom Hooson, written for the party back in 1959.
0:03:00 > 0:03:06One of the points Jeffrey Howe made in this document in 1959
0:03:06 > 0:03:08was the Government needed to spend money
0:03:08 > 0:03:11on things like road-building.
0:03:11 > 0:03:15They talk about the M4 and building the Severn bridge,
0:03:15 > 0:03:18boosting the economy, using Government money
0:03:18 > 0:03:23and that of course, is very different from what George Osborne
0:03:23 > 0:03:27and David Cameron said during the conference.
0:03:27 > 0:03:32But the economy at the time was very different to today.
0:03:32 > 0:03:35David Cameron said this afternoon that Britain
0:03:35 > 0:03:41is in battle against other countries in terms of attracting businesses.
0:03:41 > 0:03:45He said there are hard days to come but his message was hopeful.
0:03:45 > 0:03:49Let us hear in this hall, here in this Government,
0:03:49 > 0:03:52together in this country make this pledge,
0:03:52 > 0:03:54let us build an aspiration nation.
0:03:54 > 0:03:58Let us get Britain on the rise, deficit paid down,
0:03:58 > 0:04:02tough decisions taken, growth fired up, aspiration backed all the way.
0:04:02 > 0:04:05We know what it takes to win in the tough world of today
0:04:05 > 0:04:08for all our people, to Britain for Britain,
0:04:08 > 0:04:11so let's get out there and do it.
0:04:11 > 0:04:16That was the secret of Margaret Thatcher's success,
0:04:16 > 0:04:20appealing to the ambitious aspirational voters.
0:04:20 > 0:04:26It'll be a challenge for David Cameron to emulate her success
0:04:26 > 0:04:32but today he started his attempt to do that.
0:04:32 > 0:04:35Suzie Davies, you were at the conference.
0:04:35 > 0:04:39The word we have seen most is "flat."
0:04:39 > 0:04:43It wasn't flat, but it was a sober atmosphere,
0:04:43 > 0:04:48you are right to say that, but as you saw in that package,
0:04:48 > 0:04:53at the end of the conference there was a sense of hope and optimism.
0:04:53 > 0:05:00But it appeared to me as if David Cameron and George Osborne
0:05:00 > 0:05:02were also risking everything politically
0:05:02 > 0:05:07on the hope that the economy will improve.
0:05:07 > 0:05:09Not just that there is no economic plan B
0:05:09 > 0:05:11but there is no political plan B.
0:05:11 > 0:05:14If the economy doesn't improve the party is in trouble.
0:05:14 > 0:05:16I don't agree.
0:05:16 > 0:05:21They said things are harder than people expected
0:05:21 > 0:05:24especially in terms of what's happened in the EU
0:05:24 > 0:05:26since the last general election.
0:05:26 > 0:05:30But to change from that path now would be a problem
0:05:30 > 0:05:34because the markets have said the only reason
0:05:34 > 0:05:37they have to look at the UK at the moment
0:05:37 > 0:05:40and keeping the cost of borrowing low
0:05:40 > 0:05:45is that the coalition government is following this path.
0:05:45 > 0:05:49It's worth remembering that the deficit the Government
0:05:49 > 0:05:55inherited from the previous one was the biggest one in Europe.
0:05:55 > 0:05:59But we've got the lowest borrowing costs.
0:05:59 > 0:06:03Martin Rhisiart, is plan A working?
0:06:03 > 0:06:07It's not working because we're in a double dip recession.
0:06:07 > 0:06:12One of the things the Chancellor depended on
0:06:12 > 0:06:15was that we'd come out of the last recession
0:06:15 > 0:06:18and this austerity plan would work and the economy would grow.
0:06:18 > 0:06:232% was what they were predicting for 2012.
0:06:23 > 0:06:28And we are ending 2012 having shrunk 100.4% according to the IMF.
0:06:28 > 0:06:31So, it's not working and its ironic
0:06:31 > 0:06:34that because the economy isn't growing,
0:06:34 > 0:06:38it's taking away the Government's ability to pay back the deficit.
0:06:38 > 0:06:42But some economists say there are signs of recovery
0:06:42 > 0:06:49and that the green shoots are on the horizon, you don't?
0:06:49 > 0:06:54There are some signs, but having said that,
0:06:54 > 0:06:58if we take what the IMF said this week,
0:06:58 > 0:07:01that we need to loosen this austerity plan,
0:07:01 > 0:07:06they are now saying Osborne should change his plans
0:07:06 > 0:07:10because it's affecting the economy's potential to grow.
0:07:10 > 0:07:15I think they have to listen to that important message.
0:07:15 > 0:07:19Hywel Williams, there's a difference between what you do in terms
0:07:19 > 0:07:22of policy and how you present those policies to the public.
0:07:22 > 0:07:26Perhaps George Osborne and David Cameron don't want people
0:07:26 > 0:07:29to think they've changed the policy,
0:07:29 > 0:07:32but they could change it in substantial enough ways
0:07:32 > 0:07:38by saying they are adapting it to deal with circumstances?
0:07:38 > 0:07:43I thought it was a very sober conference.
0:07:43 > 0:07:48Sometimes I don't think I even live on the same planet as Cameron
0:07:48 > 0:07:51and Osborne let alone the planet.
0:07:51 > 0:07:55They are changing the policy due to some circumstances.
0:07:55 > 0:07:58Harold Macmillan said "events dear boy"
0:07:58 > 0:08:01about what drives the economy and they have to respond.
0:08:01 > 0:08:05But that's different from having a plan thought out beforehand
0:08:05 > 0:08:07and putting that into action quickly.
0:08:07 > 0:08:11What is David Cameron's vision?
0:08:11 > 0:08:17He's forgotten about hugging hoodies now and the "big society".
0:08:17 > 0:08:21He seems to be changing with the direction of the wind.
0:08:21 > 0:08:26He talks about constitutional change,
0:08:26 > 0:08:30although he's signing an agreement with Alex Salmond.
0:08:30 > 0:08:36He's changed emphasis. He was much better in his speech I thought.
0:08:36 > 0:08:40Suzy, on that point, where is his vision?
0:08:40 > 0:08:43I don't think it's changed at all.
0:08:43 > 0:08:51Cameron's vision and that of the party has been the same for years.
0:08:51 > 0:08:55We're talking about hard work. This was a central theme in the speech.
0:08:55 > 0:08:59Personal responsibility as well and co-responsibility.
0:08:59 > 0:09:05- That's Miliband's One Nation. - We mentioned the economy earlier.
0:09:05 > 0:09:09What is the point in having a One Nation party that borrows money?
0:09:09 > 0:09:11That's not the answer.
0:09:11 > 0:09:14That's the Thatcherite message.
0:09:14 > 0:09:20There's another tradition within the Conservative Party,
0:09:20 > 0:09:24a tradition that uses Keynesen principles
0:09:24 > 0:09:27that existed for decades from the Second World War.
0:09:27 > 0:09:32Should the party start to question whether Thatcherism
0:09:32 > 0:09:35is the only thing it has in its armoury?
0:09:35 > 0:09:41Every party should look at their economic philosophy.
0:09:41 > 0:09:46I think they are in a bit of a hole at the moment
0:09:46 > 0:09:50because they've put so much emphasis on this rhetoric of austerity
0:09:52 > 0:09:55and they don't think much beyond that.
0:09:55 > 0:10:01We've seen economic circles talking about neo-Thatcherism
0:10:01 > 0:10:07and neo-Liberalism in the '90s and today to some extent
0:10:07 > 0:10:10but there are signs that's coming to an end.
0:10:10 > 0:10:16Lastly, Hywel, would it be fair to look at these conference,
0:10:16 > 0:10:23the speech that created the most impression was Ed Miliband's?
0:10:23 > 0:10:30That was the most stylish. It was certainly better than Cameron's.
0:10:30 > 0:10:33That was a one-trick speech.
0:10:33 > 0:10:38At least Miliband talked about himself and outlined a vision.
0:10:38 > 0:10:44Do you remember Leanne Wood's speech?
0:10:44 > 0:10:49I do. She talked about One Nation and economic growth
0:10:49 > 0:10:52and the green economy.
0:10:52 > 0:10:56I could be here all night talking about that speech.
0:10:56 > 0:11:02Suzy Davies, there was one element of the speech that surprised me,
0:11:02 > 0:11:08Cameron doesn't talk much about himself.
0:11:08 > 0:11:10Ed Miliband gave some narrative.
0:11:10 > 0:11:17He talked about his son's death, but we haven't heard the story
0:11:17 > 0:11:22before about his father and his disability anywhere before.
0:11:22 > 0:11:27Was that a response to Miliband, with Cameron feeling
0:11:27 > 0:11:31that he has to show that he's more than a caricature
0:11:31 > 0:11:36of some posh boy, who only worries about posh boys?
0:11:36 > 0:11:42He mentioned cartoon conservatives in the speech.
0:11:42 > 0:11:45It was important for him
0:11:45 > 0:11:50to show people how he deals with the problems we have at the moment.
0:11:50 > 0:11:56He was completely clear that everyone has a chance to help
0:11:56 > 0:12:02with their own future, for example, he talked about a million new jobs
0:12:02 > 0:12:07from new companies coming in the private sector.
0:12:07 > 0:12:12I'd like to know where they are in Wales, though.
0:12:12 > 0:12:15But he was showing people that he wasn't a cartoon,
0:12:15 > 0:12:17that he's a Prime Minister.
0:12:17 > 0:12:21I'd like to compare him to Ed Miliband.
0:12:21 > 0:12:25He explained to his party who he was.
0:12:25 > 0:12:30He said that he was not here to defend wealth but to share it.
0:12:30 > 0:12:34Are there any signs that this Westminster Government
0:12:34 > 0:12:36is redistributing wealth?
0:12:36 > 0:12:40I don't see many signs of that, to be honest.
0:12:40 > 0:12:45Social capital has slowed down in the UK
0:12:45 > 0:12:47as it has in the United States.
0:12:47 > 0:12:51So, we seem to be stuck in terms of social capital
0:12:51 > 0:12:54and people improving themselves.
0:12:54 > 0:12:58What about the 2 million people that have come out of tax altogether?
0:12:58 > 0:13:03Haven't they been given something by this Government?
0:13:03 > 0:13:07They perhaps have, thanks to the Liberal Democrats.
0:13:07 > 0:13:09It's a coalition government.
0:13:09 > 0:13:14Well, when it suits them!
0:13:14 > 0:13:21The UK and Welsh Government have been going head-to-head this week,
0:13:21 > 0:13:26our Political Editor Betsan Powys was listening to the debate
0:13:26 > 0:13:32and I asked her earlier to paint a picture of how things look there.
0:13:32 > 0:13:37The High Court is a wonderful place with a high roof
0:13:37 > 0:13:41and an expensive carpet, expensive statues and so on.
0:13:41 > 0:13:47You have five judges facing 16 barristers and lawyers
0:13:47 > 0:13:51and an audience of some with interest,
0:13:51 > 0:13:55but the others were tourists looking confused when they left.
0:13:55 > 0:13:59And some experts here and there, who were listening to this debate,
0:13:59 > 0:14:03which was very detailed and technical,
0:14:03 > 0:14:06talking about lords dancing on the head of a pib.
0:14:06 > 0:14:13One Lord pressed forward and said even if the Secretary of State
0:14:13 > 0:14:17had the right and he wanted to use that right.
0:14:17 > 0:14:21If you were to deal with tattoo parlours in Swansea
0:14:21 > 0:14:24and he couldn't think of another exotic place,
0:14:24 > 0:14:26would you do that?
0:14:26 > 0:14:31It was quite a performance very detailed at the same time.
0:14:31 > 0:14:37It seemed surreal to me, we are talking about bye-laws
0:14:37 > 0:14:42to do with toilets in Rhyl and tattoo Parlours in obscure places.
0:14:42 > 0:14:48Why is the UK Government taking this so serious?
0:14:48 > 0:14:50Can't they leave it?
0:14:50 > 0:14:54That's why they have these occasional bits of conflict
0:14:54 > 0:14:59but the point being made very clearly with thick files
0:14:59 > 0:15:02and post-it notes everywhere, was that in the opinion
0:15:02 > 0:15:06of the Welsh Secretary and the Auditor General
0:15:06 > 0:15:10that it was all-important that the boundaries of devolution
0:15:10 > 0:15:13are set as clearly as possible.
0:15:13 > 0:15:18Perhaps it doesn't matter about tattoo parlours
0:15:18 > 0:15:24but perhaps next time it would matter about something different.
0:15:24 > 0:15:28The thing that surprised me was that the Welsh barrister was there
0:15:28 > 0:15:32as well as the UK barristers, but also representatives
0:15:32 > 0:15:35of the Northern Ireland Government, why was that?
0:15:35 > 0:15:39There was a technical point there.
0:15:39 > 0:15:42They felt if this was relevant to devolution in Wales,
0:15:42 > 0:15:46the same point apply in Northern Ireland,
0:15:46 > 0:15:49it was important that they gave their side of the argument,
0:15:49 > 0:15:54as they might be in the dock next time
0:15:54 > 0:15:57and it's possible we might be there again.
0:15:57 > 0:16:01The suggestion today is that the Attorney-General
0:16:01 > 0:16:04talks about the language equality measure.
0:16:04 > 0:16:06We could be there again.
0:16:06 > 0:16:10What hope is there for the organ donation measure?
0:16:10 > 0:16:13That won't go through without the same kind of trouble.
0:16:13 > 0:16:17And we criticised the first bill for being so easy.
0:16:17 > 0:16:21It seems unambitious but it is in trouble.
0:16:21 > 0:16:26It is difficult to imagine they will not look at that in great detail.
0:16:26 > 0:16:32- Betsan there with her tattoos. - No chance!- Glad to hear it!
0:16:32 > 0:16:37Suzy Davies, as a lawyer, is it disappointing to you
0:16:37 > 0:16:43that judges in the High Court determine where power exists here?
0:16:43 > 0:16:48To be honest, no. I'm not an expert on the constitution.
0:16:48 > 0:16:51What's important to me is that if we're going to see laws
0:16:51 > 0:16:56coming out of the Assembly, they have to be made properly.
0:16:56 > 0:17:01If there are other opinions they have to be tested in court.
0:17:01 > 0:17:05And that's what is happening here. There is more than one opinion.
0:17:05 > 0:17:10Was there anyway they could have come to agreement before coming to court?
0:17:10 > 0:17:13I think if there is a problem,
0:17:13 > 0:17:18it's the best way to deal with it, by changing the law
0:17:18 > 0:17:23to make sure that the problems are sorted.
0:17:23 > 0:17:29Hywel, they told people at the time of the referendum that the old order
0:17:29 > 0:17:35would go and there would be a simple system where everybody understood.
0:17:35 > 0:17:38And now we have one law at the High Court
0:17:38 > 0:17:41and talk of perhaps another one going there.
0:17:41 > 0:17:46This referendum and the Government of Wales Act
0:17:46 > 0:17:49was suppose to solve things, wasn't it?
0:17:49 > 0:17:51That's what we thought but since then
0:17:51 > 0:17:53we've had a new Welsh Secretary.
0:17:53 > 0:17:58I don't know how much influence he had on this case.
0:17:58 > 0:18:02I know David very well and I know he is a very careful lawyer
0:18:02 > 0:18:06and perhaps he's pinpointed a weakness in the settlement
0:18:06 > 0:18:09between London and Cardiff.
0:18:09 > 0:18:13There's also a weakness in the same way between Barcelona and Madrid.
0:18:13 > 0:18:19This is the kind of mess we are in. But we didn't explain this mess.
0:18:19 > 0:18:23The language Equality Act,
0:18:23 > 0:18:27the problem being raised by the UK Government
0:18:27 > 0:18:30is that the Assembly can legislate on the Welsh Language
0:18:30 > 0:18:34but as the act talks about the English language,
0:18:34 > 0:18:36is beyond their remit.
0:18:36 > 0:18:39This is ridiculous isn't it,
0:18:39 > 0:18:42it doesn't change anything in the English language.
0:18:42 > 0:18:47I would agree. There was an argue with committee members about this
0:18:47 > 0:18:51and David was a member of the committee
0:18:51 > 0:18:55that passed the right to Cardiff to legislate on language.
0:18:55 > 0:19:00It was a hot topic then and it is an open question
0:19:00 > 0:19:04because of the incomplete settlement we have.
0:19:04 > 0:19:08And looking from the outside, Martin,
0:19:08 > 0:19:11do you think this is a political game?
0:19:11 > 0:19:15Would this happen if the governments were the same colour in both places?
0:19:15 > 0:19:20It's possible but most people looking at the situation
0:19:20 > 0:19:24would think the important point is whether the Welsh government
0:19:24 > 0:19:28acts in a way which is consistent with the law
0:19:28 > 0:19:32and the will of this Senedd.
0:19:32 > 0:19:36I think the legal technicalities are being solved,
0:19:36 > 0:19:40we need to know what the ethos of the law is that they are presenting.
0:19:40 > 0:19:42There's always this conflict,
0:19:42 > 0:19:45so what will the public make of that?
0:19:45 > 0:19:48To some extent, this could be of benefit.
0:19:48 > 0:19:53It's important that a more positive infrastructure is put in place
0:19:53 > 0:19:57and there is understanding on both sides
0:19:57 > 0:20:01about what is being presented from Cardiff
0:20:01 > 0:20:06and what needs to be protected in Westminster.
0:20:06 > 0:20:10Suzy, for people at home, hearing about these cuts
0:20:10 > 0:20:13and worry being every penny they have going out,
0:20:13 > 0:20:17Betsan Powys said there were 18 lawyers and barristers there.
0:20:17 > 0:20:20They don't come cheap.
0:20:20 > 0:20:23There are hundreds of thousands,
0:20:23 > 0:20:28possibly millions of people who are wondering about this.
0:20:28 > 0:20:32It's not going to make sense to the public, is it?
0:20:32 > 0:20:37That is why it is important to get it right the first time.
0:20:37 > 0:20:41If there is a problem with this, this is the chance to sort it out.
0:20:41 > 0:20:46If there are more general problems with the Welsh Government
0:20:46 > 0:20:53the Silk Commission has made the process of devolution much simpler,
0:20:53 > 0:20:56so if we have problems with the legislation
0:20:56 > 0:20:58we need to sort it out now.
0:20:58 > 0:21:01And we need to see if there are problems in future
0:21:01 > 0:21:08because we don't want to spend much money on mistakes in future.
0:21:08 > 0:21:11That's fair enough, isn't it?
0:21:11 > 0:21:15A precedent has to be set here and the Welsh Government has to be sure
0:21:15 > 0:21:19that the UK Government isn't trying to gain power by the back door.
0:21:19 > 0:21:23The principle has to be set
0:21:23 > 0:21:27but it hasn't been completely agreed in the first place.
0:21:27 > 0:21:29This is what happened, by the way,
0:21:29 > 0:21:33when the Madrid decided it had the last word
0:21:33 > 0:21:35over the Catalan Government.
0:21:35 > 0:21:39As a result, 1.5 million people were out on the streets of Barcelona
0:21:39 > 0:21:43calling for independence, so the principle is very important.
0:21:43 > 0:21:50- Can you see that happening in Wales? - I'd be marching in the park.
0:21:50 > 0:21:55Suzy, how do you get a system to stop this happening?
0:21:55 > 0:22:01We know that the Wales Office has been flagging these problems
0:22:01 > 0:22:04to the Welsh Government.
0:22:04 > 0:22:07They have been saying that there will be a problem
0:22:07 > 0:22:10and the Welsh Government has been saying things will be fine.
0:22:10 > 0:22:17Some kind of civilised relationship is needed between the Wales office
0:22:17 > 0:22:24and the Welsh Government to stop things like this from happening.
0:22:24 > 0:22:30If there are two opinions on the law they have to be tested in court.
0:22:30 > 0:22:33It's not just a matter of some kind of cosy agreement.
0:22:33 > 0:22:36The law has to be established.
0:22:36 > 0:22:39If there is more than one opinion on the law,
0:22:39 > 0:22:42then they have to go to court again.
0:22:42 > 0:22:45But would it have been possible for the Welsh Office to say
0:22:45 > 0:22:49they were happy to yield these powers they had
0:22:49 > 0:22:54and there wouldn't be a problem.
0:22:54 > 0:23:01But they can't just agree to make things easier for people.
0:23:01 > 0:23:04If the government has decided, then so be it.
0:23:04 > 0:23:07But what if they want to keep this power?
0:23:07 > 0:23:12But that is the situation with the law at the moment.
0:23:12 > 0:23:15It's not a political matter.
0:23:15 > 0:23:21It's a matter of law and it's important not to mix the two.
0:23:21 > 0:23:25- Who will win, Martin? Any idea? - I don't know.
0:23:25 > 0:23:28The barristers will win in the end with their fees.
0:23:28 > 0:23:31- Would you agree with that? - A fool only goes to court.
0:23:31 > 0:23:35I think it's much better to take the political route
0:23:35 > 0:23:39but I'm a politician so I would say that.
0:23:39 > 0:23:44Thanks for joining us. The ruling will happen at the end of the a week.
0:23:44 > 0:23:48I think there will be a delay. I think the debate will continue
0:23:48 > 0:23:54and constitutional theorist also absolutely love it.
0:23:54 > 0:23:58Thanks to all of you. That's all for tonight.
0:23:58 > 0:24:02We'll be back at the same time next week. Until then, good night.
0:24:02 > 0:24:04Good night.