0:00:19 > 0:00:21Hello, and welcome to the programme.
0:00:21 > 0:00:23We are concentrating on one issue tonight,
0:00:23 > 0:00:26the results of the 2011 Census.
0:00:26 > 0:00:28Is the Welsh language in crisis?
0:00:28 > 0:00:33With a language struggling, we will discuss the next steps.
0:00:33 > 0:00:35And what does the modern Wales look like?
0:00:35 > 0:00:39We'll take a look at national identity and our religion.
0:00:39 > 0:00:42We are joined tonight by the playwright, Gareth Miles,
0:00:42 > 0:00:45solicitor Emyr Lewis who sits on the new body, Dyfodol yr Iaith,
0:00:45 > 0:00:48and Dr Elin Royles from the Welsh Institute of politics in Aberystwyth.
0:00:48 > 0:00:51She joins us from our studio in Aberystwyth.
0:00:51 > 0:00:54Welcome to you all.
0:00:55 > 0:00:57It is the Christmas season
0:00:57 > 0:01:00but Welsh language campaigners don't feel like celebrating.
0:01:00 > 0:01:03According to the latest census, the number who can speak Welsh
0:01:03 > 0:01:05has dropped during the last decade,
0:01:05 > 0:01:08the largest drop being in the heartlands.
0:01:08 > 0:01:11If you listened carefully in Sunday school
0:01:11 > 0:01:14you will remember that Mary and Joseph were travelling to Bethlehem
0:01:14 > 0:01:16for a census.
0:01:16 > 0:01:19That is where Arwyn Jones has been to discuss the latest one.
0:01:27 > 0:01:29It is a scene that will be repeated hundreds of times
0:01:29 > 0:01:32across Wales over the next few days.
0:01:32 > 0:01:35The retelling of the birth of Jesus.
0:01:35 > 0:01:39Mary and Joseph travelling to Bethlehem for a census,
0:01:39 > 0:01:43or this version by these children at Ysgol Ffair Fach.
0:01:43 > 0:01:48These children attend a Welsh school in west Wales,
0:01:48 > 0:01:50but their nativity play is bilingual
0:01:50 > 0:01:55because 90% of the parents only speak English.
0:01:55 > 0:01:58So to discuss the 2011 census,
0:01:58 > 0:02:03where better to go than our Bethlehem in Wales?
0:02:03 > 0:02:07But this census is not hopeful for our Welsh communities.
0:02:07 > 0:02:11Over the last decades, the number speaking the language
0:02:11 > 0:02:15has dropped from almost nearly 21% in 2001
0:02:15 > 0:02:18to 19% last year.
0:02:18 > 0:02:20But in places like Bethlehem in Carmarthenshire,
0:02:20 > 0:02:23the drop has been significant.
0:02:23 > 0:02:31Over 50% could speak Welsh in 2001, that figure is now less than 44%.
0:02:31 > 0:02:33That means that for the first time,
0:02:33 > 0:02:37the Welsh language is a minority language in its heartlands.
0:02:40 > 0:02:45The cold weather gives a Christmas feel to the village of Bethlehem
0:02:45 > 0:02:48but there is not much festive spirit for campaigners
0:02:48 > 0:02:51when you look at the census in detail.
0:02:51 > 0:02:55Among the people who consider themselves fluent in Welsh,
0:02:55 > 0:02:59that is those who can read, write and speak in Welsh,
0:02:59 > 0:03:02the drop was even more significant.
0:03:02 > 0:03:07Back in 2001, more than 15% said they could do all three.
0:03:08 > 0:03:12Now that has dropped to just over 14.5%.
0:03:12 > 0:03:17Almost 460,000 people were fluent 10 years ago.
0:03:17 > 0:03:21But now it is 431,000.
0:03:21 > 0:03:23A drop of 6%.
0:03:23 > 0:03:29So, Welsh is losing its fluency as well as speakers in general.
0:03:29 > 0:03:32These figures should be a challenge for us
0:03:32 > 0:03:36all to work for a more sustainable future for the Welsh language.
0:03:36 > 0:03:41I feel it shows that the Welsh Government
0:03:41 > 0:03:43and some local governments
0:03:43 > 0:03:48have failed to accomplish that over the last decade.
0:03:48 > 0:03:50Back in Bethlehem and at this stable,
0:03:50 > 0:03:53which is a holiday cottage run by a young couple,
0:03:53 > 0:03:57they talk about the opportunities for young people in rural Wales.
0:03:57 > 0:04:01You do have the opportunity to speak Welsh in your community,
0:04:01 > 0:04:03in the shop and in the pub.
0:04:03 > 0:04:04You can do that these days.
0:04:04 > 0:04:08You couldn't do that 20 years ago.
0:04:08 > 0:04:12But you can use Welsh not just in the communities.
0:04:12 > 0:04:16You can also speak Welsh online.
0:04:16 > 0:04:19Things like Facebook are in Welsh.
0:04:19 > 0:04:23You can use Twitter in Welsh.
0:04:23 > 0:04:26These big companies have invested in the Welsh language
0:04:26 > 0:04:29so I think it does have a bright future.
0:04:29 > 0:04:32But for those who have lived here for decades,
0:04:32 > 0:04:36the deterioration in the Welsh language is reflecting
0:04:36 > 0:04:38the migration in and out of the area.
0:04:40 > 0:04:43Not many Welsh speakers return to the area.
0:04:44 > 0:04:49People move out to live in Llandeilo or Llangadog
0:04:49 > 0:04:50but they don't come back.
0:04:55 > 0:04:59I can tell you that only around three or four...
0:05:01 > 0:05:07..new people have come back into the area.
0:05:08 > 0:05:14As the wise men and the angels prepare for the big night,
0:05:14 > 0:05:18the question is what hope is there for the future of the next generation?
0:05:19 > 0:05:25The evidence shows that children and young people
0:05:25 > 0:05:30who can speak Welsh do not speak it outside school or with friends.
0:05:30 > 0:05:34That could be one problem.
0:05:34 > 0:05:36But there are a number of issues.
0:05:36 > 0:05:42I think we have a good basis here in Wales with regard to status
0:05:42 > 0:05:45and different projects which promote the language.
0:05:45 > 0:05:51In midwinter, maybe the only comfort for the people in Bethlehem
0:05:51 > 0:05:55is the certainty that spring will come once again.
0:05:55 > 0:05:58That the sun will shine again.
0:05:58 > 0:06:00But looking at the future of the Welsh language,
0:06:00 > 0:06:03it is difficult to give the same certainty.
0:06:05 > 0:06:07That was Arwyn Jones.
0:06:07 > 0:06:11Emyr Lewis, to what extent does the success of the Welsh education,
0:06:11 > 0:06:13not just in the east but also in the west,
0:06:13 > 0:06:16has hidden the truth about what's happened to the Welsh language
0:06:16 > 0:06:20as a community language and one that's written and spoken fluently?
0:06:22 > 0:06:26I don't know whether education has hidden that.
0:06:26 > 0:06:30The big story is what has happened in the areas
0:06:30 > 0:06:33where the Welsh language was always a language spoken by the majority.
0:06:33 > 0:06:35That is the main story.
0:06:35 > 0:06:39If you look at how it's mapped over the years
0:06:39 > 0:06:43you can almost say this was inevitable.
0:06:43 > 0:06:48If you look at it like water pools that dry out.
0:06:48 > 0:06:52Over time, the pools have been getting smaller and smaller
0:06:52 > 0:06:54on the map.
0:06:56 > 0:06:58There is a dynamic...
0:07:02 > 0:07:05..an economic dynamic which has meant that people
0:07:05 > 0:07:08have migrated out of these areas,
0:07:08 > 0:07:10and there's been inmigration.
0:07:10 > 0:07:15These things mean that the language has been weakened.
0:07:15 > 0:07:18Have the language campaigners, and perhaps the government,
0:07:18 > 0:07:20as well as these language bodies,
0:07:20 > 0:07:25ignored this problem because it is such a difficult problem
0:07:25 > 0:07:31to talk about inmigration and so on, and have concentrated on status.
0:07:31 > 0:07:34But in reality, that was never the priority?
0:07:36 > 0:07:40It is an odd thing to say but you can say that the big battles
0:07:40 > 0:07:42have been relatively easy
0:07:42 > 0:07:47because they have been to do with what a government can accomplish.
0:07:47 > 0:07:52Governments can issue legislation and spend money on education
0:07:52 > 0:07:55and on spend money on a television channel.
0:07:55 > 0:08:00It's easy to see an end to the campaign.
0:08:01 > 0:08:04I would not place those things to one side for a minute,
0:08:04 > 0:08:07they have been and continue to be crucial
0:08:07 > 0:08:11for the Welsh language as a modern language.
0:08:11 > 0:08:13But the other things mean,
0:08:13 > 0:08:17what is happening socially and within the psychology
0:08:17 > 0:08:19of individuals and families
0:08:19 > 0:08:23is something much more difficult to deal with
0:08:23 > 0:08:26from the point of view of the Government.
0:08:26 > 0:08:29But one thing is for certain, the economy is key.
0:08:29 > 0:08:33We have to ensure there is work within these communities.
0:08:33 > 0:08:37Gareth Miles, as a co-founder of the Welsh Language Society,
0:08:37 > 0:08:40the organisation has been talking about crisis.
0:08:40 > 0:08:44But there was a larger drop in the 1960s.
0:08:44 > 0:08:47Is there a danger we're over-exaggerating these results?
0:08:47 > 0:08:49I don't think so.
0:08:49 > 0:08:52AS you said, I was co-founder of the Welsh Language Society.
0:08:52 > 0:09:00By 1972 and 1974 we had got further than Saunders Lewis expected to,
0:09:00 > 0:09:05such as concessions for the language.
0:09:05 > 0:09:10But I realised at that time and I was convinced
0:09:10 > 0:09:12that it was an economic and political question.
0:09:12 > 0:09:17I dealt with politics then and different parties.
0:09:17 > 0:09:22But I think a lot of my contemporaries accepted
0:09:22 > 0:09:25the concessions and did the best with them.
0:09:25 > 0:09:30But they ignored the economic and political questions.
0:09:30 > 0:09:35In the end, the only thing that will save the Welsh language
0:09:35 > 0:09:39is a government with the authority and will
0:09:39 > 0:09:45to direct industries to the necessary areas
0:09:45 > 0:09:52and to legislate in favour of council houses and rented houses.
0:09:53 > 0:09:56We need a political compulsion
0:09:56 > 0:10:00and you need a government that is willing to do that.
0:10:00 > 0:10:01At the moment I don't see that.
0:10:01 > 0:10:07We have four nationalist-light parties in this place.
0:10:07 > 0:10:10But we will not have a socialist government,
0:10:10 > 0:10:16so what should your successor concentrate on?
0:10:16 > 0:10:19Politics. Politics.
0:10:19 > 0:10:22He will have to influence the political parties.
0:10:23 > 0:10:25We need more than that.
0:10:26 > 0:10:28We need cooperation.
0:10:28 > 0:10:31We are in a capitalist crisis.
0:10:32 > 0:10:36A capitalist crisis also means hope to cooperate with people
0:10:36 > 0:10:38in other countries.
0:10:38 > 0:10:44Elin Royles, to what extent does this place have the ability
0:10:44 > 0:10:46to make the changes that we have just talked about?
0:10:46 > 0:10:49Housing and so forth has been devolved to here
0:10:49 > 0:10:52but powers are restricted and the money is short.
0:10:52 > 0:10:57It is a very difficult climate to be dealing with this kind of problem.
0:10:57 > 0:11:00We have seen this drop in the number of Welsh speakers
0:11:00 > 0:11:04at the same time when we have had devolution,
0:11:04 > 0:11:08and there has been an effort to have a language plan
0:11:08 > 0:11:11to try and revive the language and so forth.
0:11:11 > 0:11:15This reflects the challenge facing them.
0:11:15 > 0:11:18It is very difficult to deal with some of the problems
0:11:18 > 0:11:22we have talked about, economic changes and so on.
0:11:22 > 0:11:26We have talked about population movements,
0:11:26 > 0:11:30changes within families, it is extremely challenging.
0:11:30 > 0:11:33The Government has a role to try to deal with some of these factors.
0:11:33 > 0:11:36The big question is whether there is an element
0:11:36 > 0:11:38of political will behind this.
0:11:38 > 0:11:41With the number of Welsh speakers dropping,
0:11:41 > 0:11:45how much political will is there to deal with issues to do with
0:11:45 > 0:11:46the Welsh language?
0:11:46 > 0:11:52Failing targets dealing with Welsh isn't an election priority.
0:11:54 > 0:11:57Let's look at that, because there was a target in Iaith Pawb
0:11:57 > 0:12:02and the figure was meant to increase by 5% in this census.
0:12:02 > 0:12:05It does not seem that the Government is paying any political price
0:12:05 > 0:12:06for that failure?
0:12:06 > 0:12:09Exactly.
0:12:09 > 0:12:12It is not like missing or reaching targets
0:12:12 > 0:12:16on people being treated for cancer or hospital closures.
0:12:16 > 0:12:20It is not a critical matter to that extent,
0:12:20 > 0:12:22it's not life or death.
0:12:22 > 0:12:26So it is a more difficult challenge to campaign for the language
0:12:26 > 0:12:32and ensure the political parties take this as part of their intent.
0:12:32 > 0:12:36We have not been able to have the political climate in Wales
0:12:36 > 0:12:40to discuss inmigration sensibly in Wales.
0:12:40 > 0:12:44Sorry to interrupt, but is that issue going to be discussed now?
0:12:44 > 0:12:49We've had a press release which says that the Welsh Government is adamant
0:12:49 > 0:12:51that inmigration is part of the problem.
0:12:51 > 0:12:55Will they have to deal with that now?
0:12:57 > 0:13:02This is the first question, are you going to spend political capital,
0:13:02 > 0:13:07as Elin said, on making sure that Welsh remains a strong community
0:13:07 > 0:13:09and majority language in Wales?
0:13:09 > 0:13:15If yes, you need to look at what you can do with ensuring that.
0:13:15 > 0:13:19It is to do with assimilating inmigrants and things like that
0:13:19 > 0:13:25and providing the structure to ensure these things happen.
0:13:25 > 0:13:30But some say the language has to be central
0:13:30 > 0:13:33to any planning law, for example,
0:13:33 > 0:13:36and the economic revival. How do they do that?
0:13:36 > 0:13:39There are many ways to do that but one obvious way
0:13:39 > 0:13:43is to make sure that there is work within those Welsh areas.
0:13:43 > 0:13:46Only for people who speak Welsh?
0:13:47 > 0:13:51That there is work there to start with, let's start there,
0:13:51 > 0:13:53so fewer people leave those areas.
0:13:53 > 0:13:56The second thing is that there is a demand,
0:13:56 > 0:14:00within the Welsh the communities, the demand to use the Welsh language
0:14:00 > 0:14:01has to be essential.
0:14:01 > 0:14:05For example, we have seen the Language Commissioner,
0:14:05 > 0:14:07and well done her,
0:14:07 > 0:14:11and Gwenda Thomas, the deputy health minister,
0:14:11 > 0:14:15promoting the question Welsh language skills are needed
0:14:15 > 0:14:18within the health service.
0:14:18 > 0:14:21That is not true about everywhere in Wales.
0:14:21 > 0:14:25Are we moving to legal ground there?
0:14:25 > 0:14:27I'd hope not.
0:14:27 > 0:14:31Thomas Jefferson or someone like that said,
0:14:31 > 0:14:35leave legislating alone, lawyers have plenty of work to do
0:14:35 > 0:14:38without having to legislate.
0:14:38 > 0:14:41This doesn't have to be a matter of legislation.
0:14:41 > 0:14:43What we need is political will.
0:14:43 > 0:14:48Politicians deciding that they're going to deal with these questions.
0:14:48 > 0:14:50But this is the political problem,
0:14:50 > 0:14:54people remember what happened to Simon Glyn, for example.
0:14:54 > 0:14:56People will be frightened of going into this area
0:14:56 > 0:15:00because of the dependency on the goodwill of non-Welsh speakers
0:15:00 > 0:15:04and the danger that things that are said are said in the wrong way,
0:15:04 > 0:15:08things can be coloured the wrong way and so on.
0:15:08 > 0:15:11It could ruin the consensus that everyone says has developed
0:15:11 > 0:15:13in favour of the language.
0:15:13 > 0:15:17We've heard people say, we should have people speaking Welsh.
0:15:17 > 0:15:19Why should they speak Welsh?
0:15:19 > 0:15:22We speak Welsh but that's our way.
0:15:22 > 0:15:26As the Welsh middle class, we have the impulse to do that.
0:15:37 > 0:15:41In South Wales, a lot of people want independence.
0:15:41 > 0:15:44But I don't think the language should be treated
0:15:44 > 0:15:49as something separate to the economic and social policies.
0:15:49 > 0:15:56We need to continue the Welsh language and culture,
0:15:56 > 0:16:02but we need a society based on co-operation.
0:16:02 > 0:16:06So that issues like jobs and housing and the health service and roads
0:16:06 > 0:16:11and transport, that the Welsh language is part of that programme.
0:16:11 > 0:16:14It is not something extra.
0:16:14 > 0:16:19The Welsh language is one of society's necessities.
0:16:19 > 0:16:23Elin, is there potential for a political split
0:16:23 > 0:16:29because they are trying to deal with an issue
0:16:29 > 0:16:33that has caused serious problems in the past?
0:16:33 > 0:16:38It's a challenge for the politicians to make sure that doesn't happen.
0:16:38 > 0:16:42It is a challenge to make sure this political tension
0:16:42 > 0:16:46around the Welsh language survives.
0:16:46 > 0:16:52It also depends on the media and other organisations
0:16:52 > 0:16:57to create that kind of consensus so that we can deal
0:16:57 > 0:17:00with some of these problems.
0:17:00 > 0:17:06It has to be implemented on different levels within government
0:17:06 > 0:17:09and within different societies in Wales.
0:17:09 > 0:17:13There are two main political parties in Wales.
0:17:13 > 0:17:17Most of us support Plaid Cymru and the Labour Party,
0:17:17 > 0:17:22but there is an anti-Welsh element within Labour.
0:17:22 > 0:17:25Sometimes Plaid Cymru stay away
0:17:25 > 0:17:31because they don't want to lose votes of the non-Welsh speakers.
0:17:31 > 0:17:35But if they had put the Welsh language into a package,
0:17:35 > 0:17:38that would have been better.
0:17:38 > 0:17:42The Welsh Language Society is talking about a revolution,
0:17:42 > 0:17:45but we haven't had that, but I think that is the only answer.
0:17:45 > 0:17:52Or in ten years' time, this programme won't exist.
0:17:52 > 0:17:56Thank you very much. The census has also shown significant changes
0:17:56 > 0:17:59to other aspects of our lives in Wales.
0:17:59 > 0:18:04We have been to the National Museum to see how modern Wales
0:18:04 > 0:18:08is different to the wails of the past.
0:18:17 > 0:18:22The census is an historic document which gives us
0:18:22 > 0:18:26a future of Wales every decade almost 200 years.
0:18:26 > 0:18:29It's a picture of how we live our lives today
0:18:29 > 0:18:32compared to 10 years ago.
0:18:33 > 0:18:37Few of us are married, more of us are gaining degrees
0:18:37 > 0:18:42and more of us rent houses and more of us drive cars.
0:18:45 > 0:18:49But the census goes further and gives us a look at how we think.
0:18:50 > 0:18:54Religion was one of the subjects.
0:18:56 > 0:18:59Almost a third of the population in Wales said
0:18:59 > 0:19:04they didn't have a religion, that is higher than any region in England.
0:19:04 > 0:19:09There has also been a reduction since 2001 of 16%
0:19:09 > 0:19:12in the number who consider themselves to be Christians.
0:19:12 > 0:19:16The National Museum of Wales has documented Welsh history
0:19:16 > 0:19:20over thousands of years, but for the first time the census is asking
0:19:20 > 0:19:24one central question to the population,
0:19:24 > 0:19:27do they consider themselves to be Welsh?
0:19:27 > 0:19:31Two-thirds of the people who live here said they were Welsh,
0:19:31 > 0:19:36but 10% of them said they would also consider themselves British.
0:19:36 > 0:19:38According to the census,
0:19:38 > 0:19:42the heartlands of the Welsh identity is the old Welsh industrial valleys.
0:19:42 > 0:19:44Rhondda Cynon Taf had the highest percentage
0:19:44 > 0:19:48who said they considered themselves only Welsh.
0:19:48 > 0:19:53Merthyr Tydfil was the place which felt less English.
0:19:53 > 0:19:57One thing constant about the results is that things changed
0:19:57 > 0:19:59from one census to the next.
0:19:59 > 0:20:04In another 10 years, there will be a new picture of Wales again.
0:20:04 > 0:20:09There was no tick box for the Welsh last time, but there is this time.
0:20:09 > 0:20:15Two-thirds feel they are Welsh. Does that surprise you?
0:20:15 > 0:20:19No, I think it confirms the research that has been going on for years.
0:20:19 > 0:20:26We have to ask what is British nationalism?
0:20:26 > 0:20:32What is the meaning of that? We have to ask ourselves what that means.
0:20:32 > 0:20:38Does devolution account for that? That was the smallest percentage.
0:20:38 > 0:20:44- Those people who felt Welsh and British.- I don't know.
0:20:44 > 0:20:48I think strengthening the feeling of being Welsh,
0:20:48 > 0:20:52because there are democratic establishments,
0:20:52 > 0:20:59will push being British to the side, but I don't know.
0:20:59 > 0:21:03Gwynfor Evans wrote a book on the end of Britishness.
0:21:03 > 0:21:08- Are we seeing the end of Britishness?- I hope so.
0:21:08 > 0:21:12It depends when that question was asked.
0:21:12 > 0:21:17You get a marriage and babies and look forward to life.
0:21:17 > 0:21:21Then you have the death of the Queen.
0:21:21 > 0:21:26This comes every now and again. Things deteriorate.
0:21:26 > 0:21:29In the area where I live, Welshness is strong.
0:21:29 > 0:21:33That is why I say we have to put Welshness
0:21:33 > 0:21:39as part of a left-wing socialist political programme.
0:21:39 > 0:21:42I think then that we would solve the problem.
0:21:42 > 0:21:48Welshness is powerful when linked to Welsh language education.
0:21:48 > 0:21:50It is interesting that the people who moved to Wales
0:21:50 > 0:21:56from England on the whole said they were English.
0:21:56 > 0:22:01They didn't try to hide behind some kind of bail of Britishness.
0:22:01 > 0:22:07It is what we are seeing in England as well with people feeling English,
0:22:07 > 0:22:11and this feeling of Britishness is something for the minority.
0:22:11 > 0:22:16That is interesting.
0:22:16 > 0:22:20The figure of in migration to Wales complicates the picture.
0:22:20 > 0:22:26With the figures of the number of Welsh speakers dropping
0:22:26 > 0:22:29but this strong feeling of being Welsh,
0:22:29 > 0:22:35this idea of the language as being a sign of identity,
0:22:35 > 0:22:40that is weakening.
0:22:40 > 0:22:44Maybe that this is a sign of devolution and Welsh institution
0:22:44 > 0:22:47plays a very important role in this.
0:22:47 > 0:22:52Let us move from the language to heaven.
0:22:52 > 0:22:55What about the drop in the number of Christians in Wales?
0:22:55 > 0:23:01There is a drop of 300,000, that is bigger than anywhere in England.
0:23:01 > 0:23:05The chapels and the pubs are closing.
0:23:05 > 0:23:12Religion makes people do good things but also bad things.
0:23:12 > 0:23:17It is a factor in the deterioration of the Welsh language
0:23:17 > 0:23:22because chapels sustained the language,
0:23:22 > 0:23:28and it was a strength at the time, but it is a weakness now.
0:23:28 > 0:23:34It gave social status, but that has gone.
0:23:34 > 0:23:40Do you see this marriage between the language and religion?
0:23:40 > 0:23:45Of course, but religion claims it only has the whole truth.
0:23:45 > 0:23:51At least Welshness can be more varied than that.
0:23:51 > 0:23:57Thank you very much, that's it for another year.
0:23:57 > 0:24:00We will be back on the 9th of January.
0:24:00 > 0:24:07- Until then, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.- Good night.