0:00:21 > 0:00:22Good evening and welcome to CF99
0:00:22 > 0:00:27live from the National Assembly in Cardiff Bay. On tonight's programme:
0:00:27 > 0:00:30The Education Minister leaves the Cabinet.
0:00:30 > 0:00:33Where does that leave the First Minister?
0:00:33 > 0:00:37This is a shock to the political world in Wales.
0:00:37 > 0:00:41It makes things interesting which I think is a good thing.
0:00:41 > 0:00:44In Westminster, the Chancellor sharpens his axe.
0:00:44 > 0:00:47How will this affect Wales?
0:00:49 > 0:00:53Joining me this evening is the political commentator, Rod Richards.
0:00:53 > 0:00:55Jeremy Miles from the Labour Party,
0:00:55 > 0:00:59the Plaid Cymru Assembly Member for Mid and West Wales, Simon Thomas
0:00:59 > 0:01:02and in our Aberystwyth studio is Dr Elin Royles
0:01:02 > 0:01:05from the Department of Welsh Politics at the university.
0:01:05 > 0:01:07Welcome to you all.
0:01:07 > 0:01:11Has there ever been a week like this one in the Assembly's history?
0:01:11 > 0:01:14It isn't likely that Carwyn Jones got up on Monday morning
0:01:14 > 0:01:18expecting his Education Minister to resign, nor that Plaid Cymru
0:01:18 > 0:01:22and the Liberal Democrats would start to cooperate officially.
0:01:22 > 0:01:24And we're only on Wednesday!
0:01:24 > 0:01:28Tomos Livingstone looks at the new landscape in Cardiff Bay.
0:01:40 > 0:01:43The depths have been very quiet in Cardiff Bay for a while.
0:01:43 > 0:01:47Carwyn Jones managed to sail quietly along without a majority.
0:01:47 > 0:01:50The opposition parties found it hard to work together
0:01:50 > 0:01:53and nothing could shake the Labour ship.
0:01:55 > 0:01:58That has changed overnight in the most dramatic way.
0:01:58 > 0:02:00The Education Minister,
0:02:00 > 0:02:04one of the most prominent members of the Cabinet, has resigned.
0:02:04 > 0:02:06Leighton Andrews had defended a school
0:02:06 > 0:02:09that was under threat in his constituency.
0:02:09 > 0:02:13That was contrary to his own policy of urging empty schools to close.
0:02:13 > 0:02:17How did Leighton Andrews find himself in such a situation?
0:02:17 > 0:02:20Will there by far reaching changes now?
0:02:20 > 0:02:22Politics in the Bay has been shaken.
0:02:25 > 0:02:29Leighton Andrews' problem was sitting on both sides of the fence
0:02:29 > 0:02:31at the same time.
0:02:31 > 0:02:35That follows his protests against the government's plans for health.
0:02:35 > 0:02:38He will be a huge loss to Carwyn.
0:02:38 > 0:02:42The big threat for Carwyn Jones is that a very experienced
0:02:42 > 0:02:45politician is now on the backbenches.
0:02:45 > 0:02:50What will Leighton Andrews get up to there? Mischief, probably.
0:02:50 > 0:02:54As things move this afternoon, there was no sign of Leighton Andrews.
0:02:54 > 0:02:55Without a named successor
0:02:55 > 0:02:59there was no spare seat for him to sit in the chamber.
0:02:59 > 0:03:01But within the following hours, it was announced
0:03:01 > 0:03:05that Huw Lewis would be the new Education Minister.
0:03:05 > 0:03:06Jeff Cuthbert will take his place.
0:03:06 > 0:03:12The first jobs for Ken Skates and Vaughan Gething as deputy ministers.
0:03:12 > 0:03:15Nobody was willing to comment this afternoon as we waited
0:03:15 > 0:03:18for the announcement of the new Education Minister.
0:03:18 > 0:03:22It seems that Leighton Andrews' resignation had come as a shock
0:03:22 > 0:03:25to the Labour group who met in Cardiff Bay on Tuesday morning
0:03:25 > 0:03:29without any sign of drama or resignations to come.
0:03:29 > 0:03:32This wasn't the only shock this week to Welsh politics.
0:03:33 > 0:03:37Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats have got closer.
0:03:37 > 0:03:40The two parties will now be cooperating
0:03:40 > 0:03:44when Carwyn Jones calls for backing for his budget in the autumn.
0:03:44 > 0:03:49It makes sense for Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems to work together.
0:03:49 > 0:03:52As we work together, we are in a strong position
0:03:52 > 0:03:55and can get the best deal for the Welsh people.
0:03:55 > 0:03:59The Government doesn't have a majority so it makes sense
0:03:59 > 0:04:03to us to work together on matters that we agree on.
0:04:03 > 0:04:07But is that enough to scare Carwyn Jones?
0:04:07 > 0:04:10After all, the agreement doesn't include the Bay's
0:04:10 > 0:04:12main opposition party - the Conservatives.
0:04:12 > 0:04:16Without the blue element, there will not be a rainbow government
0:04:16 > 0:04:18to replace the Labour administration.
0:04:18 > 0:04:22But Leighton Andrews's resignation is on a different scale.
0:04:22 > 0:04:25How comfortable will the First Minister be
0:04:25 > 0:04:30with such a controversial and ambitious figure on the backbenches?
0:04:30 > 0:04:33He has got a problem.
0:04:33 > 0:04:37Leighton Andrews is a difficult minister to follow.
0:04:37 > 0:04:39He had a clear vision.
0:04:39 > 0:04:44I think everyone of us thought he had a wide range of understanding
0:04:44 > 0:04:46in education.
0:04:46 > 0:04:52We didn't agree with everything he did but he was ready to work hard.
0:04:52 > 0:04:55These are big shoes to fill.
0:04:55 > 0:04:58The parliamentary balance has shifted as well.
0:04:58 > 0:05:02Ieuan Wyn Jones is standing down
0:05:02 > 0:05:04and there will be a by-election on Anglesey.
0:05:04 > 0:05:07That will give the Labour Party a majority of one,
0:05:07 > 0:05:08temporarily at least.
0:05:08 > 0:05:12It will be fiery campaign and a test for the Labour Government
0:05:12 > 0:05:14as well as Plaid Cymru.
0:05:15 > 0:05:19Usually, this is quite a quiet period.
0:05:19 > 0:05:21There isn't much legislating.
0:05:21 > 0:05:25I think the Government has been very quiet.
0:05:25 > 0:05:29This is a shock for the political world in Wales.
0:05:29 > 0:05:33Things will get interesting, and I think that is a good thing.
0:05:33 > 0:05:37There is a difference of opinion about the significance of this week.
0:05:37 > 0:05:41Will it really be a political whisper or an earthquake?
0:05:41 > 0:05:43One thing is certain.
0:05:43 > 0:05:47The last seven days have been reminded to Carwyn Jones
0:05:47 > 0:05:50that his grasp on power in the Bay could slip.
0:05:52 > 0:05:54Tomos Livingstone there.
0:05:54 > 0:05:57Elin Royles, I'm not sure if it's possible
0:05:57 > 0:05:59to have an August storm in June,
0:05:59 > 0:06:02but was this just summer madness
0:06:02 > 0:06:05or has the Assembly reached a turning point?
0:06:07 > 0:06:12We have been in a similar situation before with a minority
0:06:12 > 0:06:16Labour government and having to deal with those circumstances.
0:06:16 > 0:06:21Perhaps, what we are seeing is maturity developing
0:06:21 > 0:06:24and that the opposition parties can cooperate.
0:06:24 > 0:06:30This is the type of politics we expect in coalition systems.
0:06:30 > 0:06:34The problem is that the electoral system
0:06:34 > 0:06:38we have in Wales gives the Labour Party a majority,
0:06:38 > 0:06:42so we haven't seen this kind of dynamic which is healthy
0:06:42 > 0:06:45to Welsh politics, before in the past.
0:06:45 > 0:06:48But isn't it odd that it has taken so long,
0:06:48 > 0:06:51we will come to Leighton Andrews in a moment,
0:06:51 > 0:06:53for Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats
0:06:53 > 0:06:58to realise they have much more power by working together.
0:06:58 > 0:07:01What Carwyn Jones did with his budget every year was played one
0:07:01 > 0:07:04- party against the other. - We have many factors here.
0:07:04 > 0:07:09Carwyn Jones's power and influence as First Minister and his role
0:07:09 > 0:07:11and his strength in the Labour Party is a factor.
0:07:11 > 0:07:15I'm sitting in Ceredigion, we know that the relationship
0:07:15 > 0:07:19between the Lib Dems and Plaid isn't good at all in seats like this.
0:07:19 > 0:07:21At the same time the political dynamic,
0:07:21 > 0:07:25the One Wales coalition is coming to an end.
0:07:25 > 0:07:28Plaid Cymru is adapting to be an opposition party.
0:07:28 > 0:07:31We also have the Liberal Democrats in power in Westminster
0:07:31 > 0:07:34and yet not in Wales.
0:07:34 > 0:07:35It takes time.
0:07:35 > 0:07:39The electoral system here doesn't allow the parties to think
0:07:39 > 0:07:42dynamically in terms of coalitions like this.
0:07:42 > 0:07:47It takes time to get used to it and it is nice to see that happening.
0:07:47 > 0:07:52Jeremy, Peter Hain described Leighton Andrews' resignation
0:07:52 > 0:07:55as "catastrophic" for the Welsh Labour Party.
0:07:55 > 0:07:56Do you agree?
0:07:56 > 0:07:58He was a very effective minister
0:07:58 > 0:08:01and sincere in his ambition for education.
0:08:01 > 0:08:04He worked very hard and he had vision.
0:08:04 > 0:08:07That is a huge loss to the Cabinet.
0:08:07 > 0:08:10A catastrophe?
0:08:10 > 0:08:12No, not a catastrophe.
0:08:12 > 0:08:15It's something to admire that someone clashed with
0:08:15 > 0:08:18Cabinet obligations and working for his constituency.
0:08:18 > 0:08:22There's something to admire that he prioritised his constituents.
0:08:22 > 0:08:25But, Jeremy, there are only 60 members here,
0:08:25 > 0:08:2830 are Labour.
0:08:28 > 0:08:32It's obvious that Carwyn Jones, by filling the posts today,
0:08:32 > 0:08:35has had to turn to the same people, the same faces.
0:08:35 > 0:08:39Can he afford to let talent like that to go?
0:08:39 > 0:08:43- We've had new faces coming into the government.- As deputy ministers.
0:08:43 > 0:08:46Yes, we have new faces in the government as a result.
0:08:46 > 0:08:50What's important now is not the personalities
0:08:50 > 0:08:52but that the agenda continues.
0:08:52 > 0:08:56We are not talking about personalities but about abilities.
0:08:56 > 0:08:57- It's all about abilities. - They are very able.
0:08:57 > 0:08:59He was very capable
0:08:59 > 0:09:02but there's a knowledgeable minister replacing him.
0:09:02 > 0:09:04As I say, the important thing, in my opinion,
0:09:04 > 0:09:08is that these ministers bring the agenda forward
0:09:08 > 0:09:12and focus on standards and evaluations and things like that.
0:09:12 > 0:09:17Simon, you were shadowing Leighton Andrews.
0:09:17 > 0:09:20What do you think of the new minister?
0:09:20 > 0:09:23I think that, I don't think there are many similarities
0:09:23 > 0:09:27between Leighton Andrews and the new minister, to be honest.
0:09:27 > 0:09:31They are two very different people and they have very different skills.
0:09:31 > 0:09:34And I don't think, unless there is a substantial change,
0:09:34 > 0:09:37I can't see Huw Lewis carrying out the work
0:09:37 > 0:09:40in the dynamic way that Leighton did.
0:09:40 > 0:09:43I am looking forward to shadowing him, hopefully,
0:09:43 > 0:09:45because I think the field of education
0:09:45 > 0:09:47is so important to the economic success of Wales
0:09:47 > 0:09:51and we really need to raise standards in Wales as well.
0:09:51 > 0:09:53I was a supporter of most of the things,
0:09:53 > 0:09:56not everything, but most of the things that Leighton did.
0:09:56 > 0:09:59I did disagree at times with the method at which he went
0:09:59 > 0:10:02about it but not the intention. I agreed with the intention.
0:10:02 > 0:10:06Where does his departure leaves those plans?
0:10:06 > 0:10:10We know the allegations against some Assembly education ministers
0:10:10 > 0:10:14in the past, that they were tied to the education establishment
0:10:14 > 0:10:17and Leighton Andrews was willing to challenge that establishment.
0:10:17 > 0:10:20Are you confident that Huw Lewis will do the same?
0:10:20 > 0:10:23He doesn't have a track record of doing so, it has to be said.
0:10:23 > 0:10:27Huw Lewis' track record is like a fight with a blancmange.
0:10:27 > 0:10:30It is very hard to get hold of and it's hard to see what he is doing.
0:10:30 > 0:10:33He likes to set up processes whereas Leighton
0:10:33 > 0:10:36was very clear that it wasn't the processes that mattered
0:10:36 > 0:10:39but the result and to be honest,
0:10:39 > 0:10:41he has gone too soon for us to know
0:10:41 > 0:10:43whether he would have had successful results.
0:10:43 > 0:10:46Hopefully, we will find out soon.
0:10:46 > 0:10:49There is room for concern that someone like Huw Lewis,
0:10:49 > 0:10:51with his different way of working,
0:10:51 > 0:10:54is going to find himself in a thicket
0:10:54 > 0:10:58rather than follow the clear vision that Leighton had.
0:10:58 > 0:11:00We didn't always agree on the path he took
0:11:00 > 0:11:03but he had a clear vision of where he was going.
0:11:03 > 0:11:06I haven't seen any content like that, so far, to Huw Lewis.
0:11:06 > 0:11:08Or, to be honest, to many others in the Cabinet.
0:11:08 > 0:11:11So I don't know what Carwyn Jones' choice was.
0:11:11 > 0:11:16Rod. Has this departure wounded Carwyn Jones?
0:11:18 > 0:11:21Well, Leighton Andrews was impatient
0:11:21 > 0:11:25and I felt as though he was a bit lost, to be honest.
0:11:25 > 0:11:30He believed in structure and that kind of thing rather than results.
0:11:30 > 0:11:33You were saying that he wasn't tied to unions
0:11:33 > 0:11:36but the unions were putting pressure on him.
0:11:36 > 0:11:41He believed in local education authorities and so on.
0:11:41 > 0:11:47With Huw Lewis, he is more from that perspective that Leighton Andrews.
0:11:47 > 0:11:52Huw Lewis is old Labour reconstructed.
0:11:52 > 0:11:57I feel as though he might work better alongside the unions
0:11:57 > 0:12:01and the local education authorities.
0:12:02 > 0:12:05All I can say is that I wish him well
0:12:05 > 0:12:08because he faces a very difficult challenge.
0:12:08 > 0:12:10We need to cooperate with the unions
0:12:10 > 0:12:13and education establishment in order to succeed.
0:12:13 > 0:12:15- But you need to challenge them at times as well.- Pardon?
0:12:15 > 0:12:18- Sometimes it is necessary to challenge them as well.- Of course.
0:12:18 > 0:12:21You need to set an agenda for the purpose of raising standards
0:12:21 > 0:12:24and that's the most important thing. More important than anything else.
0:12:24 > 0:12:27But in order to succeed, you need to work together with people.
0:12:27 > 0:12:31The biggest problem for education in Wales are these education unions.
0:12:31 > 0:12:35They are impeding education in Wales from taking steps forward,
0:12:35 > 0:12:38as they are now doing in England.
0:12:38 > 0:12:42More broadly, Rod, looking at the Cabinet now with Jeff Cuthbert,
0:12:42 > 0:12:44Huw Lewis, you know,
0:12:44 > 0:12:46the political career life span in this place
0:12:46 > 0:12:51is beginning to resemble that of Eastern Europe
0:12:51 > 0:12:53before the fall of the Berlin Wall!
0:12:53 > 0:12:56There are ministers that have been here since the very beginning.
0:12:56 > 0:12:58- Is that healthy?- No, it isn't.
0:12:58 > 0:13:02Edwina Hart and Jane Hutt and Carwyn Jones himself have been there
0:13:02 > 0:13:09since 1999 and this is a problem with all four parties, to be honest.
0:13:09 > 0:13:12They are just not attracting the type of young talent
0:13:12 > 0:13:14that is needed in government
0:13:14 > 0:13:17and they are all as guilty as each other.
0:13:17 > 0:13:20Elin, is there a problem? Is there a dearth of talent in this place
0:13:20 > 0:13:26as we see ministers go on in the same job for years.
0:13:26 > 0:13:28You see them come and go in Westminster all the time.
0:13:28 > 0:13:31I think part of the latest factor, if you like,
0:13:31 > 0:13:34is that the 2007 election happened before...
0:13:34 > 0:13:39Sorry, the 2011 election took place before the referendum.
0:13:39 > 0:13:42If we'd had the referendum and then the electoral process
0:13:42 > 0:13:45a year or two later, perhaps we would have seen other candidates,
0:13:45 > 0:13:48a wider variety of candidates putting themselves forward.
0:13:48 > 0:13:51I think, looking forward to the next Assembly election,
0:13:51 > 0:13:54it will be very interesting to see
0:13:54 > 0:13:56who the new candidates are coming forward.
0:13:56 > 0:13:59We always hear murmurs amongst the parties that we would see
0:13:59 > 0:14:04a new phase of politicians now the Assembly has legislative powers.
0:14:04 > 0:14:07But as the Labour Party has been the main party in power
0:14:07 > 0:14:10since the start,
0:14:10 > 0:14:12it is not surprising that we have the same kind of
0:14:12 > 0:14:15politicians in the prominent positions.
0:14:15 > 0:14:21There are only so many politicians in Cardiff Bay
0:14:21 > 0:14:25and the parties only have a certain amount of politicians to pick from.
0:14:25 > 0:14:26Is the a feeling in all the parties,
0:14:26 > 0:14:29Simon, Ieuan Wyn Jones talked about the need for new blood.
0:14:29 > 0:14:33The Assembly has a five-year term.
0:14:33 > 0:14:38Is there a feeling that when the next assembly comes, that it is time
0:14:38 > 0:14:41not to throw out every member, of course,
0:14:41 > 0:14:44but that we should see a substantial amount of new faces?
0:14:44 > 0:14:46I think we will see new faces.
0:14:46 > 0:14:49We will see new faces as a result of the by-election
0:14:49 > 0:14:51and Ieuan Wyn Jones' decision to step down as well.
0:14:51 > 0:14:54I would like to say that there have been some BBC faces
0:14:54 > 0:14:57that have been around for a very long time as well, Vaughan.
0:14:57 > 0:15:00It happens in every institution. And especially having 60 members.
0:15:00 > 0:15:03And I think this is a small number
0:15:03 > 0:15:07and a turnover of 60 members will mean a gradual change every time.
0:15:07 > 0:15:09We had more of a turnover last time, to be honest.
0:15:09 > 0:15:11I think there are a number of new people.
0:15:11 > 0:15:14We have two new faces in the Cabinet.
0:15:14 > 0:15:17They are not representing my area
0:15:17 > 0:15:20but we should celebrate the fact we have new faces going in
0:15:20 > 0:15:22as junior members of the Cabinet
0:15:22 > 0:15:24at that level so there is progress here.
0:15:24 > 0:15:28It would be great to attract new faces to the Assembly
0:15:28 > 0:15:32and new blood but you can't do that without a political revolution.
0:15:32 > 0:15:34And that would mean Labour losing power.
0:15:34 > 0:15:36There is another problem.
0:15:36 > 0:15:38The Chamber at the Assembly
0:15:38 > 0:15:41is not a platform for members
0:15:41 > 0:15:45to address the electorate and the general public.
0:15:45 > 0:15:48Which is another question but we have to move on.
0:15:48 > 0:15:50By the way, I loved that shot of Vaughan Gething
0:15:50 > 0:15:52running through the chamber!
0:15:52 > 0:15:54It's good to see that one of them can run!
0:15:54 > 0:15:58There has been plenty going on in Westminster today as well.
0:15:58 > 0:16:01The Chancellor outlined his spending plans
0:16:01 > 0:16:03for the years 2015 to 2016
0:16:03 > 0:16:05and the message from George Osborne
0:16:05 > 0:16:08was that there was more pain on the way.
0:16:08 > 0:16:10Elliw Gwawr was there
0:16:10 > 0:16:14and she sums up the content of the Spending Review for CF99.
0:16:16 > 0:16:19The lack of growth in the economy has forced the Chancellor
0:16:19 > 0:16:24to continue making cutbacks until even after the next general election
0:16:24 > 0:16:31and that means cuts totalling £11.5 billion in 2015 to 2016.
0:16:31 > 0:16:36For most departments, that will mean cuts of between 5% and 10%
0:16:36 > 0:16:40but the Welsh Government budget will only be reduced by 2%
0:16:40 > 0:16:44because health and education spending is ring-fenced in England.
0:16:44 > 0:16:47According to the Welsh government, this is still quite a knock
0:16:47 > 0:16:49and they say they will suffer
0:16:49 > 0:16:52as a result of the Chancellor's decisions.
0:16:52 > 0:16:55While recovery from such a deep recession
0:16:55 > 0:16:57can never be straightforward,
0:16:57 > 0:17:00Britain is moving out of intensive care
0:17:00 > 0:17:02and from rescue to recovery.
0:17:02 > 0:17:07If you were hoping to hear about investment in the M4,
0:17:07 > 0:17:09you will have to wait a bit longer
0:17:09 > 0:17:12until the Government decision on the Silk Commission.
0:17:12 > 0:17:15But there was good news for S4C.
0:17:15 > 0:17:19Despite the concerns, its budget is safe for another year.
0:17:19 > 0:17:23So with the main parties here all in agreement
0:17:23 > 0:17:26that cuts would have to go way beyond the next general election,
0:17:26 > 0:17:29that campaign, which is already underway,
0:17:29 > 0:17:32will focus on what to cut and when.
0:17:32 > 0:17:35Jeremy, if I may start with you,
0:17:35 > 0:17:37Labour have changed their tune recently.
0:17:40 > 0:17:42I was a bit confused that it was as if Ed Balls was saying,
0:17:42 > 0:17:47"He is cutting too far and too fast but we are going to cut just as hard.
0:17:47 > 0:17:50The Labour Party message is not clear at the moment.
0:17:50 > 0:17:53It certainly differs to the message we get from Carwyn Jones.
0:17:53 > 0:17:57The message from Ed Balls
0:17:57 > 0:18:00was that we needed to look at things as they are now.
0:18:00 > 0:18:03When we get to government,
0:18:03 > 0:18:06we need to deal with the economy in real-time.
0:18:06 > 0:18:10You can never promise to reverse every cut that the Conservatives
0:18:10 > 0:18:13and the Lib Dems make now.
0:18:13 > 0:18:15The reason we are in the situation we are in
0:18:15 > 0:18:17is that the Tories have failed on the economy.
0:18:17 > 0:18:21The anticipated growth was 6% in the last three years
0:18:21 > 0:18:23and the economy has flatlined.
0:18:23 > 0:18:27They said that the budget would be better by 2015 and it won't be.
0:18:27 > 0:18:31That is true but the question I ask is this,
0:18:31 > 0:18:33Carwyn Jones has been elected here
0:18:33 > 0:18:37on the basis that he will stand up for Wales, to coin a phrase.
0:18:37 > 0:18:43He says that we are not getting enough money here to run Wales
0:18:43 > 0:18:45and now Labour is saying it will do just the same.
0:18:45 > 0:18:49What will the Labour message be in the next Assembly election?
0:18:49 > 0:18:53Carwyn Jones is correct in saying that the cuts aren't sufficient
0:18:53 > 0:18:56for the Welsh government to do what it wants to in Wales
0:18:56 > 0:18:58and that is perfectly true.
0:18:58 > 0:19:00On a United Kingdom level,
0:19:00 > 0:19:03Ed Miliband says that we need to support our economic development.
0:19:03 > 0:19:07We cannot support anything that simply isn't certain at the moment.
0:19:07 > 0:19:09When the time comes, we will have to look at the economy as it is.
0:19:09 > 0:19:12I accept that we get a different message in Wales
0:19:12 > 0:19:14but the situation is different here.
0:19:14 > 0:19:17We are talking about massive budget cuts, to be honest,
0:19:17 > 0:19:21in the government budget.
0:19:21 > 0:19:24Rod Richards, is Labour going to be able to sustain this dual message?
0:19:24 > 0:19:27It is hard for them, to be honest.
0:19:28 > 0:19:31There is a lack of clarity here. That is their problem.
0:19:31 > 0:19:34I watched the whole thing this afternoon
0:19:34 > 0:19:38and I still wasn't clear on what Ed Balls was trying to say.
0:19:38 > 0:19:41I understand the point that we have to wait
0:19:41 > 0:19:43and see what the situation is
0:19:43 > 0:19:46but if you say we have to wait and see what the situation is,
0:19:46 > 0:19:49how can you say, "But we are going to continue with the Tory cuts
0:19:49 > 0:19:53"into the first year of the next Assembly"?
0:19:53 > 0:19:56What we are saying is we are looking at 2015 now.
0:19:56 > 0:19:59At this point in time we can't promise to undo those cuts.
0:19:59 > 0:20:02That is the situation and that is the statement we have made.
0:20:02 > 0:20:05The reason that cut is being made is that the investments...
0:20:05 > 0:20:08But it depends who you are talking to.
0:20:08 > 0:20:11Ed Balls says one thing, Ed Miliband says another.
0:20:11 > 0:20:14Ed Balls' number two, I can't remember his name,
0:20:14 > 0:20:17I was watching him on Sky earlier
0:20:17 > 0:20:20and the whole thing just isn't clear.
0:20:20 > 0:20:22The message is clear.
0:20:22 > 0:20:25We are saying that we can't promise to reverse every cut
0:20:25 > 0:20:27and that is the message.
0:20:27 > 0:20:29Simon, Plaid Cymru is very fortunate
0:20:29 > 0:20:31when it comes to Westminster elections
0:20:31 > 0:20:33because you can't form a government.
0:20:33 > 0:20:38Isn't Labour just being honest here by saying, look.
0:20:38 > 0:20:40"There are many things that we hate.
0:20:40 > 0:20:44"We hate this bedroom tax and so on but the decisions have been made
0:20:44 > 0:20:46"and it's difficult to reverse them in the short time."
0:20:46 > 0:20:48Aren't they just being honest?
0:20:48 > 0:20:50No. I'm no more confused than ever
0:20:50 > 0:20:52on the direction of the Labour Party.
0:20:52 > 0:20:55They have been leading campaigns locally and in here,
0:20:55 > 0:20:57using the chamber as a national platform,
0:20:57 > 0:21:00leading campaigns against these cuts,
0:21:00 > 0:21:02especially the bedroom tax and so on.
0:21:02 > 0:21:05In the past fortnight we've had a change of heart
0:21:05 > 0:21:06from Ed Balls and Ed Miliband.
0:21:06 > 0:21:08For all purposes,
0:21:08 > 0:21:11they are saying that they accept the Tory spending plans
0:21:11 > 0:21:15for the first year they are hoping to be in power in Westminster.
0:21:15 > 0:21:16So there is nothing to suggest
0:21:16 > 0:21:18we'll see a change in this situation.
0:21:18 > 0:21:20George Osborne, I think, has set them...
0:21:20 > 0:21:23I think George Osborne has put them in this position.
0:21:23 > 0:21:26The same thing happened with Tony Blair in 1997, if I may say so.
0:21:26 > 0:21:28Exactly the same thing.
0:21:28 > 0:21:30We must responsible with the national budget
0:21:30 > 0:21:32and it's easy for Plaid Cymru to say that.
0:21:32 > 0:21:36It's not Plaid Cymru saying that, it is your party in the Assembly!
0:21:36 > 0:21:38But Plaid Cymru is now supporting the Lib Dems.
0:21:38 > 0:21:41Let us go over to Aberystwyth, friends.
0:21:41 > 0:21:43Elin has been waiting patiently.
0:21:43 > 0:21:46The difference between the Labour message here
0:21:46 > 0:21:52and the Labour message in Westminster is quite pronounced by now, isn't it?
0:21:52 > 0:21:57Yes but one has been in a position to prepare for a general election
0:21:57 > 0:21:59and accept the first beating,
0:21:59 > 0:22:03as we have just seen in the studio, in terms of discussions.
0:22:03 > 0:22:06They are preparing for a general election
0:22:06 > 0:22:09and placing the Labour Party in another position
0:22:09 > 0:22:11and we have got devolution here so we don't expect
0:22:11 > 0:22:14and we cannot expect a unified voice
0:22:14 > 0:22:17from parties on different levels of government.
0:22:17 > 0:22:19They are going to make different decisions,
0:22:19 > 0:22:25especially when we are talking about a budget for the years 2015 to 2016.
0:22:25 > 0:22:29But what strikes me is isn't Carwyn Jones doing to Ed Miliband
0:22:29 > 0:22:33exactly what Leighton Andrews did to Carwyn Jones?
0:22:33 > 0:22:36He's saying one thing here in Wales
0:22:36 > 0:22:39while the leader says something else in Westminster?
0:22:39 > 0:22:41Yes but at the end of the day
0:22:41 > 0:22:43I would argue that they are helping each other.
0:22:43 > 0:22:47Carwyn Jones is the only Labour Party leader in power
0:22:47 > 0:22:49across the whole of the UK.
0:22:49 > 0:22:54He has plenty of clout and he has the right to say what he wants.
0:22:54 > 0:22:58He can say what the Labour Party would like to say but can't,
0:22:58 > 0:23:01especially as they are trying to make an effort
0:23:01 > 0:23:03to create more wriggle room
0:23:03 > 0:23:06around their ability to control the economy.
0:23:06 > 0:23:08I don't think it's unexpected,
0:23:08 > 0:23:12I don't think it creates problems for the Labour Party centrally.
0:23:12 > 0:23:15That is I'm sure that there is support for them
0:23:15 > 0:23:18through the fact he's having his say.
0:23:18 > 0:23:21The clear, red water, Simon. We have heard about this before.
0:23:21 > 0:23:25That is rhetoric and rhetoric is the current standpoint.
0:23:25 > 0:23:28I don't agree with Elin wholeheartedly because Plaid Cymru
0:23:28 > 0:23:30has the same point of view in Westminster and the Assembly.
0:23:30 > 0:23:32Maybe it is possible for us to do
0:23:32 > 0:23:36but what's important now is if Labour Party is serious
0:23:36 > 0:23:38about what they say, and I agree with this statement,
0:23:38 > 0:23:42the current policy hasn't led to economic growth
0:23:42 > 0:23:45and the kind of growth that was anticipated
0:23:45 > 0:23:47so where is the growth policy
0:23:47 > 0:23:49that the Labour Party wants to replace it with, then?
0:23:49 > 0:23:52Accepting Government plans and making these changes
0:23:52 > 0:23:55that impact the most vulnerable people in society isn't good enough.
0:23:55 > 0:23:58We have to leave it there. I apologise, Jeremy.
0:23:58 > 0:24:01Plenty to discuss but no more time, unfortunately.
0:24:01 > 0:24:05That's all for tonight. Join us next week but for now, good night.
0:24:25 > 0:24:27Subtitles by Red Bee Media Ltd