0:00:22 > 0:00:26Good evening, and welcome to CF99, from the National Assembly.
0:00:26 > 0:00:29Tonight: What will be the next chapter in the colourful
0:00:29 > 0:00:31political history of Anglesey?
0:00:31 > 0:00:35And a long wait for the British Government's plans
0:00:35 > 0:00:37on devolving taxes.
0:00:37 > 0:00:41I think political games are being played here.
0:00:41 > 0:00:47I am worried about the fact that we haven't been able to grow up.
0:00:47 > 0:00:51Let's welcome four of the most faithful contributors
0:00:51 > 0:00:53to the programme over the last political year.
0:00:53 > 0:00:58Aled Roberts from the Lib Dems, Simon Thomas from Plaid Cymru,
0:00:58 > 0:01:01and Keith Davies from Labour and joining us
0:01:01 > 0:01:05from Westminster is the Tory MP, Glyn Davies.
0:01:05 > 0:01:08This is our final programme until the Autumn,
0:01:08 > 0:01:12and when we come back, the Assembly will have a new member.
0:01:12 > 0:01:15The Anglesey electorates go to the polls on 1 August
0:01:15 > 0:01:19to vote for Ieuan Wyn Jones' successor.
0:01:22 > 0:01:25Over the next few weeks,
0:01:27 > 0:01:33a lot of the main political names in Wales will flock to the island.
0:01:33 > 0:01:38This is a seat that changes colour only when a member retires.
0:01:38 > 0:01:42The Liberal Democrat Megan Lloyd George is the only candidate
0:01:42 > 0:01:45who has lost the seat
0:01:45 > 0:01:48to Cledwyn Hughes in 1951.
0:01:48 > 0:01:52The Labour candidate had a great career on the front benches
0:01:51 > 0:01:56keeping his seat without any difficulty.
0:01:56 > 0:02:03In 1979, the Conservative Keith Best won the seat.
0:02:04 > 0:02:10If he had stuck to his name, he would still be in his seat now.
0:02:10 > 0:02:17But he had to resign with the BT shares scandal.
0:02:18 > 0:02:22It was the turn of the Plaid Cymru candidate Ieuan Wyn Jones next.
0:02:22 > 0:02:25First in Westminster and then in the Assembly.
0:02:25 > 0:02:31But then Albert Owen gained the seat.
0:02:31 > 0:02:34He is still there.
0:02:34 > 0:02:38Will another party get the same chance as Ieuan Wyn Jones
0:02:38 > 0:02:40retires for the second time?
0:02:40 > 0:02:45If Labour won this seat, they would have a majority in the Assembly.
0:02:45 > 0:02:50But this won't be an easy task.
0:02:50 > 0:02:54Keith, I said there that winning Anglesey
0:02:54 > 0:02:56would give you a majority there.
0:02:56 > 0:03:01- Are you throwing everything on this? - Yes, because it will change things.
0:03:01 > 0:03:07We can work closely with the other parties now, but if we won it,
0:03:07 > 0:03:08we could go our own way.
0:03:08 > 0:03:14But we have seen these kind of seats are a problem for Labour.
0:03:15 > 0:03:19Not in Westminster elections but Assembly elections.
0:03:26 > 0:03:28They are the Western constitute.
0:03:29 > 0:03:35- Winning this by-election is going to be hard work.- Yes.
0:03:35 > 0:03:38But if we got our supporters out to campaign,
0:03:38 > 0:03:42if we could get them out, I think we can win it.
0:03:42 > 0:03:45How important is it for Plaid Cymru to keep this seat?
0:03:45 > 0:03:50Losing Anglesey would be a huge blow to you.
0:03:50 > 0:03:56Yes, it would be a huge blow for the party. It is our seat to keep.
0:03:56 > 0:04:01We have an exceptional candidate in Rhun ap Iorwerth.
0:04:01 > 0:04:05Hopefully we have the momentum to keep the seat
0:04:05 > 0:04:07but we don't take anything for granted.
0:04:07 > 0:04:09I think it is very exciting.
0:04:09 > 0:04:14It's important to show that we are still relevant to Anglesey.
0:04:14 > 0:04:20- These rural constituencies can throw up some unexpected results.- Yes.
0:04:25 > 0:04:33We did well in the local elections. We worked very hard there.
0:04:33 > 0:04:37We have strong foundations on Anglesey.
0:04:37 > 0:04:44But if the people feel any party takes them for granted,
0:04:44 > 0:04:50their complaints aren't listening to you or anything, they could lose.
0:04:50 > 0:04:55They like to be independent with a small i.
0:04:55 > 0:04:59You would expect the Plaid Cymru candidate
0:04:59 > 0:05:05to show some kind of independent thinking.
0:05:05 > 0:05:10The Conservatives were second on Anglesey
0:05:10 > 0:05:12in the last Assembly elections.
0:05:12 > 0:05:16People expect you to do badly there this time.
0:05:16 > 0:05:22Have you got any hope there?
0:05:26 > 0:05:30We have to have hope. Nobody knows what will happen on Anglesey.
0:05:30 > 0:05:35Only the Lord knows what's going to happen on Anglesey.
0:05:35 > 0:05:40Are you talking about Lord Dafydd Elis-Thomas?
0:05:40 > 0:05:43If we look back, the Conservatives have done well on the island.
0:05:43 > 0:05:48I am sure the Conservatives will do well again this time.
0:05:48 > 0:05:54Things do look a bit difficult for us, but we will see.
0:05:54 > 0:05:58I think Neil Fairlamb will work very hard.
0:05:58 > 0:06:04Nobody knows what will happen on Anglesey.
0:06:04 > 0:06:09Nobody could tell in the past, nobody can tell in the future.
0:06:09 > 0:06:12How important is it for you to beat UKIP?
0:06:12 > 0:06:16We will hear from their representative later.
0:06:16 > 0:06:22- They beat you in the local elections. - They have been doing well.
0:06:23 > 0:06:25I expect them to do well now
0:06:25 > 0:06:29until the European elections.
0:06:31 > 0:06:37They have gone down in the opinion polls over the last few weeks
0:06:37 > 0:06:43and after the referendum on Britain's future within the EU.
0:06:45 > 0:06:51I think they have slipped down the polls.
0:06:51 > 0:06:58I expect UKIP to slide.
0:06:58 > 0:07:02Aled Roberts, can you explain to me,
0:07:02 > 0:07:05if you look on Anglesey as a constituency,
0:07:05 > 0:07:09it does look like Ceredigion, in terms of language and land
0:07:09 > 0:07:16but it has been a difficult place for you.
0:07:16 > 0:07:19Why have you failed there?
0:07:19 > 0:07:25You've had one or two councillors on the island,
0:07:25 > 0:07:28but you haven't had a foothold on Anglesey.
0:07:28 > 0:07:33There was nothing there for 40 years.
0:07:33 > 0:07:38It's only in the last eight years we've had councillors there.
0:07:25 > 0:07:44We have a very strong candidate in Steve Churchman.
0:07:44 > 0:07:49We need to go on the doorsteps and ask the public
0:07:49 > 0:07:54to vote for the Liberal Democrats again.
0:07:54 > 0:08:01What is more important for you, making sure Labour don't win
0:08:02 > 0:08:08so that you are stronger in the Assembly
0:08:08 > 0:08:12because Labour won't have a majority, or making sure that you do well?
0:08:12 > 0:08:19Are you going to rest on your laurels a bit in order to help Plaid Cymru?
0:08:19 > 0:08:24This is an election for the people of Anglesey.
0:08:24 > 0:08:29They need to look at what has been happening in Anglesey
0:08:29 > 0:08:32over the last decades.
0:08:32 > 0:08:39There hasn't been a strong economic development strategy there,
0:08:39 > 0:08:42and jobs are badly needed there.
0:08:42 > 0:08:50We'd better name the Labour candidate as well, he is Tal Michael.
0:08:50 > 0:08:56There is a danger for you that the opposition supporters will see
0:08:56 > 0:09:03that a win for Labour would give you a majority and will vote tactically?
0:09:03 > 0:09:11I'd say the other way. Plaid Cymru disagrees with itself
0:09:11 > 0:09:15on whether there should be something instead of Wylfa.
0:09:15 > 0:09:20I think the Conservatives and UKIP will argue with each other.
0:09:20 > 0:09:26If we get our supporters out, I think we will be successful.
0:09:26 > 0:09:32Give Carwyn the majority. I want you to campaign for that.
0:09:32 > 0:09:36How much other problem is the nuclear power stations there?
0:09:36 > 0:09:39I think that the people of Anglesey accept our views.
0:09:39 > 0:09:44That everyone on the main land disagree and agree on Anglesey.
0:09:44 > 0:09:48It isn't a decision we can make here in the Assembly.
0:09:48 > 0:09:52It is a decision that can only be made by the British government.
0:09:52 > 0:09:58They will make the decision on its future.
0:09:58 > 0:10:00Whoever is elected,
0:10:00 > 0:10:04they will have to face the problem that is another nuclear power
0:10:04 > 0:10:09station is built, they will have to secure the best deal for local jobs.
0:10:09 > 0:10:11If the decision was made here,
0:10:11 > 0:10:17it would be your decision not to have the station where.
0:10:17 > 0:10:20We don't support nuclear power,
0:10:20 > 0:10:26but we would be in a situation where we could use more renewable energy.
0:10:26 > 0:10:31Anglesey is an island of energy. You could do a lot there.
0:10:31 > 0:10:37But this election is who will be the next spokesman for the island.
0:10:39 > 0:10:44Glyn Davies, what message will win supporters for you?
0:10:44 > 0:10:52Any by-election is important for the Conservatives.
0:10:52 > 0:10:57It does have an effect.
0:10:57 > 0:11:03Anglesey is Anglesey, and I think that people will think,
0:11:03 > 0:11:06who will do the best for them?
0:11:06 > 0:11:10That is what I expect more than anything.
0:11:10 > 0:11:15I hope they will support Neil Fairlamb, and that he will do well.
0:11:15 > 0:11:17If you look at anywhere in Wales,
0:11:17 > 0:11:21that won't look at the situation across Britain,
0:11:21 > 0:11:25that would be Anglesey.
0:11:25 > 0:11:26Thank you very much.
0:11:26 > 0:11:31We've heard how the four major parties intend to entice
0:11:31 > 0:11:34the electorate in the by-elections, but there are two other parties
0:11:34 > 0:11:39looking for votes, the Socialist Labour Party and UKIP.
0:11:39 > 0:11:42On the one hand, we have the Eurocrats in Europe,
0:11:42 > 0:11:47in Cardiff we've got the Taffocrats,
0:11:47 > 0:11:52in the middle we've got Dave and Ed in the government.
0:11:52 > 0:11:56We have to have some common sense.
0:11:57 > 0:12:03Should we thank them for losing the police in rural villages,
0:12:03 > 0:12:08losing the Post Offices in Anglesey,
0:12:08 > 0:12:14some schools in small villages have also been closed?
0:12:14 > 0:12:20For a full list of candidates, please go to the website.
0:12:20 > 0:12:23Those who regularly watch CF99 will be familiar with
0:12:23 > 0:12:27hearing about the Silk Commission.
0:12:27 > 0:12:30He published his first report on devolving acquisition powers
0:12:30 > 0:12:33to Wales back in November.
0:12:33 > 0:12:37The British government was supposed to respond by the spring,
0:12:37 > 0:12:41but politicians on either side of the M4 are still waiting.
0:12:41 > 0:12:44We are asking, why the wait?
0:12:44 > 0:12:47Far from treating the recommendations with contempt,
0:12:47 > 0:12:49we are treating them with seriousness,
0:12:49 > 0:12:53I accept that is taking longer than he might want.
0:12:53 > 0:12:56Even in that answer by Nick Clegg, there was no suggestion
0:12:56 > 0:12:58when the British government would officially respond
0:12:58 > 0:13:01to the Silk Commission.
0:13:01 > 0:13:04It has been eight months since the man on the left, Paul Silk,
0:13:04 > 0:13:10published 33 recommendations to the Welsh Secretary.
0:13:10 > 0:13:14But is he delaying intentionally?
0:13:14 > 0:13:20I don't have a relationship with him any more.
0:13:20 > 0:13:24When I was in the Assembly, we dealt with him.
0:13:24 > 0:13:28There is no question his performance is the worst I've ever seen.
0:13:28 > 0:13:33After collecting evidence in public meetings across Wales,
0:13:33 > 0:13:37the Silk Commission concluded that some taxation laws
0:13:37 > 0:13:39should be devolved to Wales.
0:13:39 > 0:13:44To those who have published these in the past,
0:13:44 > 0:13:47David Jones is going through it with a fine tooth comb.
0:13:49 > 0:13:56I think this Welsh Secretary is much more suspicious
0:13:56 > 0:14:01than the Treasury, for example.
0:14:01 > 0:14:08He thinks he has two look through every measure, every tax,
0:14:08 > 0:14:14even more than the Treasury.
0:14:19 > 0:14:24The political menu has been important for politicians lately.
0:14:24 > 0:14:30Will cold water be poured on the Silk Commission recommendations?
0:14:30 > 0:14:33They favour the set menu
0:14:33 > 0:14:39and they want to pick every course available.
0:14:39 > 0:14:46But the British government favours the la carte menu,
0:14:46 > 0:14:50just choosing a few of the recommendations.
0:14:50 > 0:14:54Because both sides of the M4 need different things,
0:14:54 > 0:14:59that goes to explain why this has been so slow in coming.
0:14:59 > 0:15:06That delay has left a sour taste in some people's mouth.
0:15:08 > 0:15:14If I was in the situation of chairing a committee
0:15:14 > 0:15:18and didn't have an answer from the government
0:15:18 > 0:15:23after about seven weeks or more, I would ask why?
0:15:23 > 0:15:27I think political games are being played here.
0:15:27 > 0:15:34I am worried about the fact we have failed to grow up, constitutionally.
0:15:34 > 0:15:42I am worried about what is happening in Westminster and Whitehall.
0:15:42 > 0:15:45Silk offered another course.
0:15:45 > 0:15:49Devolving part of income tax to the Assembly.
0:15:49 > 0:15:55I am doubtful about the Assembly's borrowing powers.
0:15:55 > 0:16:00Especially on things that don't affect everyday life.
0:16:00 > 0:16:04I would want to see these developing hand-in-hand
0:16:04 > 0:16:08with financial laws in Wales.
0:16:08 > 0:16:13The problem is the Assembly will not favour that kind of devolution.
0:16:13 > 0:16:17The Welsh government will hope they won't be given just crumbs.
0:16:17 > 0:16:21There's nothing worse than sitting around the table,
0:16:21 > 0:16:24waiting for a long time, just to be disappointed.
0:16:24 > 0:16:31- Glyn Davies, do you know what's going on?- No, I don't.
0:16:31 > 0:16:37I want to see the government saying it is ready to say yes
0:16:37 > 0:16:40to part one of Silk.
0:16:40 > 0:16:43I don't know if that will happen.
0:16:43 > 0:16:47This morning I read that this is connected with the other
0:16:47 > 0:16:52big question that is happening all over Britain.
0:16:55 > 0:17:00I think it's more complicated than what I expected.
0:17:03 > 0:17:05That is what I was going to ask.
0:17:05 > 0:17:10The picture we are getting is that David Jones
0:17:10 > 0:17:13is being slow on this, but as the government is preparing
0:17:13 > 0:17:19something more significant that deals with England and powers for England?
0:17:19 > 0:17:23Perhaps this is the reason for the delay.
0:17:23 > 0:17:26Today, David Jones told us in the committee
0:17:26 > 0:17:30that we are dealing with Silk.
0:17:32 > 0:17:38I have been waiting for the government's response to this.
0:17:38 > 0:17:41For some reason, that hasn't happened.
0:17:41 > 0:17:48Today we have had new questions,
0:17:48 > 0:17:52that is why he couldn't say anything.
0:17:52 > 0:17:59I hope we will have some answers tomorrow.
0:17:59 > 0:18:02Aled Roberts, I am sure your people here have been in touch
0:18:02 > 0:18:06with your people over there. Do you know what is happening?
0:18:06 > 0:18:12Obviously, talks take place within the government.
0:18:12 > 0:18:18All I can say is that our ministers are quite secure in their opinions.
0:18:18 > 0:18:20But it is very interesting.
0:18:20 > 0:18:27I remember Danny Alexander coming here to the Lib Dem conference
0:18:27 > 0:18:31months ago and saying, don't worry, this is going to come.
0:18:31 > 0:18:36David Jones, a few weeks ago,
0:18:36 > 0:18:42seemed to throw cold water on any further devolution.
0:18:42 > 0:18:46Is there a separation within the Government in London?
0:18:46 > 0:18:49To some extent.
0:18:49 > 0:18:53There are two parties with different ideas on devolution.
0:18:53 > 0:18:58But our stand as a party hasn't changed.
0:18:58 > 0:19:03What we need to do now is continue to put pressure on the Government
0:19:03 > 0:19:09to have a response to the situation.
0:19:09 > 0:19:11We are trying to do that.
0:19:11 > 0:19:16The phoneline between Cardiff and London are very busy.
0:19:16 > 0:19:18Oh, to be a fly on the wall!
0:19:20 > 0:19:25What do you make of this, Simon Thomas?
0:19:25 > 0:19:31Is this a minor problem in the process or is it bigger than that?
0:19:31 > 0:19:34I think those parties in Westminster are disagreeing.
0:19:34 > 0:19:40They said something very positive about Silk today.
0:19:40 > 0:19:46Is it the differences between the two parties,
0:19:46 > 0:19:50or is it more to do with David Jones and the Treasury?
0:19:50 > 0:19:53We need to have a federal future.
0:19:53 > 0:19:58We have to think about what's happening in England only.
0:19:58 > 0:20:03If you want to keep the present system, it has to be federal.
0:20:03 > 0:20:10I don't think it's fair that we expect the Silk Commission
0:20:10 > 0:20:14to come up with all the answers. Things change from week to week.
0:20:14 > 0:20:18But it's obvious there's something happening in the London government
0:20:18 > 0:20:22that's holding back on the response. I haven't seen any evidence
0:20:22 > 0:20:25to suggest that the problem lies somewhere else.
0:20:25 > 0:20:28I think that the anchor is in the Welsh Office
0:20:28 > 0:20:34and I haven't seen any evidence that the problem lies somewhere else.
0:20:34 > 0:20:37Guto Bebb had only heard about this.
0:20:37 > 0:20:41Some conservatives would like to give the Labour government
0:20:41 > 0:20:44responsibility to raise taxes. I support that as well.
0:20:44 > 0:20:49Keith Davies, you are sitting in the group down there,
0:20:49 > 0:20:52what do the ministers tell you?
0:20:52 > 0:20:54I don't want you to share your secrets,
0:20:54 > 0:20:59but you must have a feeling of what is going on?
0:20:59 > 0:21:05I agree with Simon Thomas and Aled Roberts.
0:21:05 > 0:21:10What we have heard from our Minister who is discussing things
0:21:10 > 0:21:12with Danny Alexander, things are going well.
0:21:12 > 0:21:16I went to the Pier Head to listen to David Jones
0:21:16 > 0:21:22and the audience was full of the "No" campaigners.
0:21:22 > 0:21:28He was saying that we've had enough powers
0:21:28 > 0:21:34and we don't you do any more. That was a poor message.
0:21:34 > 0:21:37Some people are saying we've had enough powers
0:21:37 > 0:21:42and we don't need any more.
0:21:42 > 0:21:46How lonely is David Jones, in his situation?
0:21:46 > 0:21:51Not one conservative member here wanted to be his Private Secretary
0:21:51 > 0:21:54not one Conservative member.
0:21:54 > 0:21:58Is he representing the views of Welsh Tory ministers?
0:21:58 > 0:22:01It is impossible for me to tell you everything.
0:22:01 > 0:22:04I can't tell you what David Jones thinks.
0:22:04 > 0:22:07I can only tell you what I think.
0:22:07 > 0:22:10I want the government in Cardiff Bay
0:22:10 > 0:22:14to have more responsibility for finance.
0:22:14 > 0:22:20I want devolution to grow, that's what I want to see.
0:22:20 > 0:22:24I don't think many from my party support that.
0:22:24 > 0:22:29At the moment, nobody knows what's going on.
0:22:29 > 0:22:34People in the studio now are guessing.
0:22:36 > 0:22:42Something is moving, but I don't know everything that's happening.
0:22:45 > 0:22:50When do you expect the announcement will be made?
0:22:50 > 0:22:54Do you think that there's a big delay?
0:22:54 > 0:22:59Or do you think that they are just tidying up?
0:22:59 > 0:23:05There are 33 recommendations, and it is important
0:23:05 > 0:23:10we have a full response and the best bargain for Wales.
0:23:10 > 0:23:14The problem is, we don't know if all these talks
0:23:14 > 0:23:17about what Simon was talking about earlier will come into it.
0:23:17 > 0:23:20We don't know the situation.
0:23:20 > 0:23:26I think that we should get a response to Silk.
0:23:26 > 0:23:29Simon, when do you think will have a response?
0:23:29 > 0:23:33I'm worried that we won't hear anything before the Summer now.
0:23:33 > 0:23:35But we need an answer as soon as possible.
0:23:35 > 0:23:39The Silk Commission was set up by the British government
0:23:39 > 0:23:43to look into this.
0:23:43 > 0:23:49- It is disrespectful to respond to the commission itself.- Many thanks.
0:23:49 > 0:23:53That's all for tonight, and this political term.
0:23:53 > 0:23:57Remember "Dau o'r Bae" on Friday and the debating will continue
0:23:57 > 0:23:59over the summer.
0:23:59 > 0:24:04Thank you very much for watching. Goodbye.