:00:27. > :00:33.Afternoon folks, welcome to the Daily Politics. $$NWELINE Retail
:00:33. > :00:37.prices are rising at 5.6% - a record high in modern times. So how
:00:37. > :00:41.much damage is it doing to our economy? And should we act to stop
:00:41. > :00:44.it running out of control? We're awaiting this man's verdict
:00:44. > :00:47.on Liam Fox. The Cabinet Secretary, Sir Gus O'Donnell's report is out
:00:47. > :00:57.this afternoon. But will it simply raise more questions than it
:00:57. > :01:01.
:01:01. > :01:11.answers? And the junior minister, what do they do? Keep the engines
:01:11. > :01:13.
:01:13. > :01:17.of Government running order just the unglamorous stuff?
:01:17. > :01:19.All that in the next half an hour. And with us for the whole programme
:01:19. > :01:29.today is the former Labour Home Office and Work and Pensions
:01:29. > :01:33.
:01:33. > :01:35.minister, Tony McNulty. The inflation figures? They're
:01:35. > :01:39.pretty dreadful and much worse than expected. Inflation on the broad
:01:39. > :01:42.RPI measure is getting close to 6%. And it's rising fastest on those
:01:42. > :01:51.essentials most households have to buy - food on the table, petrol in
:01:51. > :01:55.the car, heating for the home. Energy prices up 8.6%. The Bank of
:01:55. > :01:58.England says inflation will start to fall next year. And that's
:01:58. > :02:08.likely as the January rise in VAT falls out of the index and a flat-
:02:08. > :02:08.
:02:09. > :02:14.lining economy puts downward pressure on prices. Commodity
:02:14. > :02:18.prices are also weaker because the world economy is weaker. Oil-price
:02:18. > :02:26.is are coming down, gas prices, too. I've written about this on my
:02:26. > :02:31.latest blog on the Daily Politics website. Dreadful figures? We are
:02:31. > :02:35.heading towards this woeful combination of no growth, and
:02:35. > :02:41.inflation creeping. The Japanese had that for the best part of 10
:02:41. > :02:44.years. The Swedish had that after their banking crisis for some time.
:02:45. > :02:48.You need to do something on one element or other. The Bank of
:02:48. > :02:52.England might be right, we do not know. Something needs to be done to
:02:52. > :02:59.get some growth back in the economy. That will be difficult because what
:02:59. > :03:05.is going on in the eurozone. It is not easy to see what can be done.
:03:05. > :03:09.It is a systemic problem. The Labour Party says cut the VAT, and
:03:09. > :03:16.just as the rise in VAT had an effect on the way up, it would have
:03:16. > :03:21.a temporary effect on the way down. It would have 12 billion -- at 12
:03:21. > :03:27.million to borrowing in the sovereign debt crisis? George
:03:27. > :03:31.Osborne has one club in his bag and that is it. They need to get the
:03:31. > :03:37.balance right between growth and borrowing. This mantra we have had
:03:37. > :03:42.in the last week, you don't borrow your way out of a crisis. Actually,
:03:42. > :03:48.historically that is what nations have done. We will add to borrowing
:03:48. > :03:54.this year, �122 billion. All four on predicted reasons because of
:03:54. > :03:59.higher unemployment, higher benefit bills, which cannot be right.
:03:59. > :04:03.you add to the borrowing, which is the Labour policy. We don't know
:04:03. > :04:07.how much, but some estimates suggest around 20 billion when you
:04:08. > :04:12.add on the holiday in National Insurance, as some are suggesting.
:04:12. > :04:22.Is it conceivable you could add 20 billion to borrowing and not end up
:04:22. > :04:29.paying a higher interest on your bombs? That is the difficulty.
:04:29. > :04:32.bombs. It is how temporary it is before it kick-starts the growth.
:04:32. > :04:37.There is a name game which says it might mean things going wrong with
:04:37. > :04:44.higher borrowing. At the moment that we are flat lining and
:04:44. > :04:49.standing still. At the moment we are paying 2.5%, it is an historic
:04:49. > :04:59.low. It is only just a bit above Germany. If we abandon our deficit
:04:59. > :05:00.
:05:00. > :05:02.reduction plans, the debts are being added to, but if the market
:05:02. > :05:07.saw the deficit-reduction plans being reduced they could take
:05:07. > :05:13.flight, push up the yields and your stimulus would all go in higher
:05:13. > :05:18.interest payments? This is where the Tories have got it wrong. It is
:05:18. > :05:22.not just either their plan A, or recklessness. Ed Balls, Ed Miliband
:05:22. > :05:29.are saying clearly, you have got to do something to generate growth in
:05:29. > :05:32.the economy. Of course, you need to address deficit reduction, but the
:05:32. > :05:36.markets are smart enough to understand there has got to be
:05:36. > :05:42.something other than this austere plan A which is not working.
:05:42. > :05:48.Really? Because any time there has been a deviation by the Greeks,
:05:48. > :05:52.Portuguese or the Spanish, French and the Italians, the market's
:05:52. > :05:56.verdict is ruthless. Yields shoot up, the Spanish and the Italians
:05:57. > :06:00.are paying over 5% and their deficits are smaller than ours?
:06:01. > :06:08.There has got to be and there is an alternative to what George Osborne
:06:08. > :06:17.is doing. There has to be. We're joined now by the Treasury minister,
:06:17. > :06:23.David Gauke. Welcome to the programme. Do you accept with
:06:23. > :06:27.inflation now rising between five and 6%, most people's pay will be a
:06:27. > :06:32.zero rise or a very small rise? Living standards are being
:06:32. > :06:37.squeezed? Yes, this does have an impact on living standards. That is
:06:37. > :06:40.why we have taken decisions on reducing the fuel duty, so it is
:06:40. > :06:45.now six pence per litre lower than it would have been under the plans
:06:45. > :06:49.we inherited. That is why we are freezing council tax and the
:06:49. > :06:54.personal allowance for income tax has been increased. These are
:06:54. > :06:58.difficult times, but given we don't have a lot of room for manoeuvre
:06:58. > :07:02.because of the state of public finances, we are doing what we can.
:07:02. > :07:08.The squeeze on living standards is worse for the reasons I mentioned
:07:08. > :07:13.earlier. The biggest price rises are on those things we have to buy.
:07:13. > :07:17.Flat-screen TV is are not rising, but we don't all need them. We need
:07:17. > :07:23.to heat our homes, we need to put petrol in the car and we need to
:07:23. > :07:27.put food on the table. They are all rising by more than 5%? It is right
:07:27. > :07:32.global commodity prices are driving price rises up across the board,
:07:33. > :07:36.and that is why we have inflation creasing at the moment. We accept
:07:36. > :07:41.that and within the limited room for manoeuvre we have, we are
:07:41. > :07:44.trying to do what we can to reduce some of those pressures. Does the
:07:44. > :07:50.Treasury share the optimistic view of the Bank, that inflation is
:07:50. > :07:56.going to come tumbling down next year? It is not just the Bank of
:07:56. > :08:01.England that believe inflation is going to fall. The OECD, IMF...
:08:01. > :08:06.you share it? We look at the assessment the Bank of England has
:08:06. > :08:11.done. I understand the Treasury looks at what the Bank of England
:08:11. > :08:16.says, my question is simple and I would appreciate an answer! Do you
:08:16. > :08:20.share the Bank's view on inflation? We don't disagree with the Bank of
:08:20. > :08:24.England's view and that you are others that inflation will fall
:08:24. > :08:28.towards the end of this year and threw 2012. You think it will fall
:08:28. > :08:33.before the end of this year? That is the Bank of England youth.
:08:33. > :08:40.know that, but what do you think? It is there, or they're about. That
:08:40. > :08:45.is about right. Whether it will be December, January, we shall see.
:08:45. > :08:49.But the view, most commentators think inflation will fall over the
:08:49. > :08:53.months ahead. I don't think we have had to on the programme before, and
:08:53. > :08:57.come back before Christmas to see if your prediction is right. I look
:08:57. > :09:01.forward to it. I think it will be an interview you do not like.
:09:01. > :09:04.think you might be right. The official report into the former
:09:04. > :09:07.Defence Secretary, Liam Fox, and his dealings with his close friend,
:09:07. > :09:10.Adam Werritty, will be published later today. It's been written by a
:09:10. > :09:20.man called, Sir Gus O'Donnell, he's the most important civil servant in
:09:20. > :09:21.
:09:21. > :09:24.the land. He is retiring at Christmas. So you might expect him
:09:24. > :09:28.to produce a pretty weighty document? Indeed, we're told that
:09:28. > :09:32.the report runs to - wait for it - a whopping TEN pages! That's
:09:32. > :09:39.probably a first in the history of the civil service. So, Jo, what
:09:39. > :09:42.earth-shattering revelations can we expect? Prepare yourself a!
:09:42. > :09:44.The judgement from Sir Gus O'Donnell, or GOD, as he's known,
:09:44. > :09:47.will be published later this afternoon. The BBC understands the
:09:47. > :09:51.report will say Liam Fox broke the ministerial code in his dealings
:09:51. > :09:53.with his friend, Adam Werritty. Mr Werritty claimed to be Liam Fox's
:09:53. > :09:55.adviser and joined the former Defence Secretary on 18 foreign
:09:55. > :10:01.trips, arranging meetings for him despite having no official
:10:01. > :10:04.Government or Conservative Party role. The report will acknowledge
:10:04. > :10:07.that Liam Fox did not gain financially from the arrangement.
:10:07. > :10:10.But there are still questions about how Mr Werritty funded his business
:10:10. > :10:17.activities and whether he gained from his frequent access to Liam
:10:17. > :10:26.Fox. I'm joined now by our Deputy
:10:26. > :10:33.With us now is the former commander of British troops in Bosnia, and
:10:33. > :10:39.now the Tory MP for Beckenham. We are greedy had no choice but to
:10:39. > :10:44.step down? Correct. There is a number of people from Labour and
:10:44. > :10:48.the media don't want to let this go. He has fallen on his sword but they
:10:48. > :10:57.don't think this story is over? have to wait until the report when
:10:57. > :11:01.it comes out. But it will be -- we will have to reconsider them. But I
:11:01. > :11:07.think it will run longer. Do you think he will come back into
:11:08. > :11:14.Government? Peter Mandelson seemed to do it a few times. I hope he
:11:14. > :11:18.does. He was a very good secretary of state who gripped the situation.
:11:18. > :11:22.Trying to grip the MoD is like trying to make an impression on a
:11:22. > :11:29.huge ball of petite. Anything you have made an impression, you get
:11:29. > :11:34.off and it goes back. It is getting bigger and bigger? It is probably
:11:35. > :11:41.platinum. I remember I was in the MoD as a Major and Michael
:11:41. > :11:45.Heseltine, I remember him saying, "right, we will get a grip of this.
:11:45. > :11:52.Ritual moans will be sorted we will be inefficient MoD and this is how
:11:52. > :11:56.it is going to be". That was in the early 80s. Liam Fox had done his
:11:56. > :12:00.homework in the job, he had been the shadow secretary and had a
:12:00. > :12:08.lifelong interest in these policies. What does Philip Hammond know about
:12:08. > :12:13.this? I do not know. I have not asked him. I suspect he knows
:12:13. > :12:18.enough. I suspect what the ministry of defence requires at his level is
:12:19. > :12:22.strategic direction and political decisions. He will get plenty of
:12:22. > :12:27.men of -- military advice from the civil servants at the top and the
:12:27. > :12:32.generals. They might run circles around him. The MoD might get back
:12:32. > :12:37.into the game. A lot of them did not like Liam Fox because he was
:12:37. > :12:43.his own man. Now they have someone who was not an expert in this area,
:12:43. > :12:47.he was an accountant? If they think that, they are on a loser. Philip
:12:47. > :12:52.Hammond is an exceptional minister already. Where do you think the
:12:52. > :12:58.Adam Fox, Adam Werritty story goes now? I think in the end, whatever
:12:58. > :13:03.is in this report will end up being a forward to a whole exercise which
:13:03. > :13:07.will be much longer in the end and go to this whole transition being
:13:07. > :13:13.in generis from opposition to Government. And that is where Liam
:13:13. > :13:17.Fox has fallen down. Nobody gets in the room of a secretary of state
:13:17. > :13:25.without the Secretary of State's say-so. The Secretary of State does
:13:25. > :13:31.not have any private meetings excluding civil servants. User the
:13:31. > :13:39.Secretary of State? I mean the Secretary of State. The Secretary
:13:39. > :13:42.of State is the only one who can say, I don't care if he thinks the
:13:42. > :13:48.civil servants should be in this meeting, I don't think they should
:13:48. > :13:51.be. It is all driven from the Secretary of State. What you're
:13:51. > :13:58.saying is the permanent Under- Secretary should know what is going
:13:58. > :14:05.on? He does, but the Secretary of State is king in his own fiefdom. I
:14:05. > :14:12.don't think there is this innocence, or naive at the that is betrayed.
:14:12. > :14:20.Is that why Tony McNulty, they have revealed Liam Fox met other defence
:14:20. > :14:26.ministers. That could not happen unless Liam Fox said so? Absolutely.
:14:26. > :14:31.Does that surprise you? Nothing surprises me any more. The facts of
:14:31. > :14:35.the matter is, I agreed with what to say about the problem of
:14:35. > :14:40.transferring from opposition into Government. Let's be quite clear,
:14:40. > :14:46.Liam Fox made an error of judgment. I'm quite sure there is no money,
:14:46. > :14:52.nothing like that being involved, personal and game. He made an error
:14:52. > :14:58.of judgment. -- personal gain. It has cost him dear and I think it is
:14:58. > :15:03.very sad. I think that is right in terms of Liam Fox. Facility and
:15:03. > :15:09.ability for Adam Werritty to make money, there is no question. Fat is
:15:09. > :15:19.a question that should be answered this afternoon. -- that is.
:15:19. > :15:21.
:15:21. > :15:24.pages, you will speed read it and For any politician aspiring to high
:15:25. > :15:33.office, a stint as a junior minister is a must. You might have
:15:33. > :15:35.a red box and a ministerial car, but his five years as Parliamentary
:15:36. > :15:40.Under-Secretary with responsibility for paperclips really the fast
:15:40. > :15:43.track to the top? You think of government, you think
:15:43. > :15:48.of the big beasts, the Prime Minister, Secretary of State,
:15:48. > :15:52.Whitehall mandarins. But those with slightly less glamorous job titles,
:15:52. > :15:56.the Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, for example, barely get a
:15:56. > :15:59.mention. They are the junior ministers, the tier of middle
:16:00. > :16:04.management that helps keep the wheels of government in motion.
:16:04. > :16:08.There are over 60 junior ministers across the 20 departments of
:16:08. > :16:13.Whitehall. That is almost one in 10 of all MPs. William Hague at the
:16:13. > :16:16.Foreign Office has six junior ministers, four ministers of state
:16:17. > :16:21.and two parliamentary Under- Secretaries. No partridge in a pear
:16:22. > :16:25.tree, though. What do they do? Well, as memoirs can confirm, the dull
:16:25. > :16:28.and unglamorous jobs that the Secretary of State doesn't want.
:16:28. > :16:32.Norman Baker as Parliamentary Under-Secretary for Transport. A
:16:32. > :16:37.look at his portfolio reveals he is also responsible for alternatives
:16:37. > :16:42.to travel, amongst other things. The Department of Energy and
:16:42. > :16:46.climate change's Ministry of State Charles Henry is responsible for
:16:46. > :16:50.Smart Meters and lean regulation. At the Foreign Office, David
:16:50. > :16:54.Lidington can include ministerial correspondence and communications
:16:54. > :16:59.amongst his long list of responsibilities. It is hardly the
:16:59. > :17:03.West Wing. A junior minister's job is really to sell government policy.
:17:03. > :17:08.Oh, and cover the behind of the Secretary of State in some of those
:17:08. > :17:14.tricky media interviews. Just ask someone who has done it.
:17:14. > :17:19.certainly have to speak for them. Cabinet ministers often suddenly
:17:19. > :17:22.disappeared, leaving junior ministers to hold the can and go on
:17:22. > :17:25.the Today programme when the Riz Ahmed unpopular decision. But
:17:25. > :17:30.nobody really notices them, disappearing off the scene when
:17:30. > :17:33.there is difficult politics. Don't assume that just because you have a
:17:33. > :17:37.red box and minister in your job title that you actually have any
:17:37. > :17:42.power. It depends entirely on Number Ten. At the Prime Minister
:17:42. > :17:47.and people around him are interested in you, then you have
:17:47. > :17:51.influence. I was a specialist in Europe, Tony Blair's area. I had a
:17:52. > :17:56.lot of walk in rights to Number Ten. But if you are favoured or not, a
:17:56. > :17:59.junior minister must still watch what they say. Remember this?
:17:59. > :18:03.of the egg production in this country is sadly infected with
:18:03. > :18:08.salmonella. There was only one junior rule that every junior
:18:08. > :18:13.minister must obey if they want to survive. Don't overshadow your boss.
:18:13. > :18:17.A few days before the 2005 election, there was a huge profile on me as
:18:17. > :18:21.the most influential minister of foreign affairs in Britain, just
:18:21. > :18:25.after the election I found I was no longer a minister. If there is no
:18:25. > :18:29.real perk, power or influence, why do people do it? Well, it looks
:18:29. > :18:39.good on your CV. Your own coffee machine, drinks cabinet in the
:18:39. > :18:39.
:18:39. > :18:44.office, shining name plaque... We are joined by Norman Baker. How
:18:44. > :18:49.fulfilling his it being a junior minister? Very fulfilling. I don't
:18:49. > :18:52.have a coffee machine or a name plaque. I have a ministerial bike
:18:52. > :18:57.that I chose myself. It depends on your relationship with the
:18:57. > :19:01.Secretary of stake. Philip Hammond was willing to let me get into
:19:01. > :19:04.areas of the department where I was able to get money for the Treasury,
:19:04. > :19:09.for a transport fund. I was given areas like rail performance to deal
:19:09. > :19:13.with, which is quite fulfilling. Another dynamic which is different
:19:13. > :19:16.from Denis McShane's time, we have a coalition government. There is a
:19:17. > :19:20.different dynamic there. You would have said the same thing when you
:19:20. > :19:24.were run government. Now would you say that all would you agree with
:19:24. > :19:27.Chris Mullin, who says it is low- level drudgery and utter lack of
:19:27. > :19:31.influence? I wouldn't have been so upfront about the fact that the
:19:31. > :19:35.last government was a coalition as well! I don't agree with Chris
:19:35. > :19:39.Mullin. I've read his books and I think they are entertaining. But I
:19:39. > :19:43.think junior ministers are central to the operation. But they don't
:19:43. > :19:47.have any real influence? They do, it depends on the Secretary of
:19:47. > :19:50.State. I had the great fortune to work with very strong secretaries
:19:50. > :19:56.of state that would let you get on with it. The one thing a junior
:19:56. > :20:02.minister craves is there a little bit of a policy that they can
:20:02. > :20:06.determine and run themselves. it's not just Chris Mullin, maybe
:20:06. > :20:10.you two are the exception to the rule. Lord Digby Jones described it
:20:11. > :20:14.as one of the most dehumanising experiences a person can have.
:20:14. > :20:20.Peter Hennessy said that junior ministers are the wretches of the
:20:20. > :20:23.Earth and are often treated as such. I don't recognise that. In my
:20:23. > :20:26.department we have junior ministers that have areas of responsibility
:20:27. > :20:31.and get on with it. Philip Hammond was keeping his finger on the pulse.
:20:31. > :20:34.He was expected to do that. He was a competent Secretary of State for
:20:34. > :20:38.Transport. But he recognised he couldn't do everything and in
:20:38. > :20:41.certain areas there was specialisms that we have which ought to be used.
:20:41. > :20:47.A good manager, a good Secretary of State, will allow junior ministers
:20:47. > :20:50.to flourish in that way. How do you feel, in the thick of it, you see
:20:50. > :20:57.special advisers running around and exerting influence. That must be
:20:57. > :21:01.frustrating? It's different in a coalition. They have special
:21:01. > :21:04.advisers in the coalition? Well, we have special advisers, for whether
:21:04. > :21:08.they are Tory or Lib Dem secretaries of state. I have a Lib
:21:08. > :21:13.Dem responsibility in the coalition to make sure that Liberal Democrat
:21:13. > :21:16.policies are delivered. So why have a hierarchy to the Secretary of
:21:16. > :21:20.State and to Nick Clegg. Isn't that the difference? In the coalition,
:21:20. > :21:25.is less likely that Norman Baker, the only Liberal Democrat... In the
:21:25. > :21:28.village! In the Department of Transport, he's more likely to be
:21:29. > :21:34.told off by the Secretary of State, it's easier for the Secretary of
:21:34. > :21:37.State to tell him to get back into his box? The distinction between
:21:37. > :21:41.the two parties will have to be blurred. He will be part of the
:21:41. > :21:46.overall team. Ind the end, you have to tell special advisers where to
:21:46. > :21:51.get off, whether they are in coalition or otherwise. They say,
:21:51. > :21:57.the Secretary of State wants this. You say, politely, well, tell him
:21:57. > :22:00.to pick up the phone and ask me! He were elected you? The special
:22:00. > :22:02.advisers for Transport are conservative. So they answer to the
:22:02. > :22:08.Secretary of State, they don't answer to me and I don't answer to
:22:08. > :22:17.them. It's a different dynamic. he's got it all wrong? If it's an
:22:18. > :22:21.exaggeration, like Yes, Minister was an underestimate! There are
:22:21. > :22:28.only two countries in Europe with higher inflation than Britain. �10
:22:28. > :22:36.to each of you if you can name them? Liechtenstein. Spain? In
:22:36. > :22:43.Europe? That is one, what is the other? Do I get �5 for that? No, 10
:22:43. > :22:47.if you name both. Greece? Estonia? They are playing each other in the
:22:47. > :22:49.European Championships! It would be a lot riskier to give it to an
:22:49. > :22:53.investment banker. The backbench committee of the
:22:53. > :22:58.Commons will meet an hour to decide which question they are going to
:22:58. > :23:02.put forward for the House of Commons chamber. All eyes will be
:23:02. > :23:05.on whether they will choose the issue of a referendum on our
:23:05. > :23:08.membership of the European Union. One leading campaigner for a
:23:08. > :23:14.referendum is Nikki Sinclaire. She was once of the UK Independence
:23:14. > :23:18.Party, now an independent MEP. She went from town to town, championing
:23:18. > :23:23.of the referendum calls. Recently, she delivered a petition to Downing
:23:23. > :23:27.Street. It ran to about 100,000 signatures. She took a long MPs
:23:27. > :23:31.from both the conservative and Labour parties that wanted it put
:23:32. > :23:36.to a vote. Welcome to the Daily Politics. Even if you get this vote
:23:36. > :23:39.comedy will not get a referendum, will you? I think it's unlikely at
:23:39. > :23:44.this stage. The idea was to put pressure on the Government and we
:23:44. > :23:47.have done that by collecting that 100,000. These were 100,000 voices
:23:47. > :23:52.that I brought down to Downing Street. I am the guardian of those
:23:52. > :23:56.voices. Since we collected his 100,000, we have actually got it up
:23:56. > :24:00.to 120,000. Wouldn't you have more influence inside the Conservative
:24:00. > :24:04.Party, strengthening the Euro- sceptic wing? The Conservative
:24:04. > :24:08.Party has promised a lot on Europe but they failed to deliver.
:24:08. > :24:12.Remember the cast-iron promise of... I do indeed, there are plenty of
:24:12. > :24:17.Conservative backbenchers take your view. But you don't have the
:24:17. > :24:22.influence they have on the outside? An independent, so I can speak to
:24:22. > :24:26.all parties. But I'd like to see what MPs turn up. Hopefully we will
:24:26. > :24:29.get the debate. It had been said that it would happen. What
:24:29. > :24:33.conservative and Labour MPs, they will turn up and put their vote to
:24:33. > :24:38.this, and I ask people at home to write to their MPs and make sure
:24:38. > :24:42.they turn up. We need to put pressure on the politicians. This
:24:42. > :24:46.is a debate that is long overdue. We have argued about it for 30
:24:46. > :24:53.years plus. We need to have a formal debate in this country, a
:24:53. > :24:59.binding referendum. Do you think we should have a referendum? I'm not
:24:59. > :25:03.sure. The Government are in a very strange position. They promise that
:25:03. > :25:07.if there is another Lisbon Treaty, then they should have a referendum.
:25:07. > :25:10.But that wouldn't be in or out? might come back to bite them, it
:25:10. > :25:15.would only be written in terms of in or out. Whole coverage would be
:25:15. > :25:19.that you cannot have one on an esoteric treaty without it being in
:25:19. > :25:23.or out. I'm fairly agnostic, which is appalling for Euro-sceptics,
:25:23. > :25:27.that I should be agnostic on something so important. But I think
:25:27. > :25:34.they might get that in or out referendum by stealth, possibly the
:25:34. > :25:37.worst of all words. How? If there is a Lisbon part two, if the
:25:37. > :25:43.Government stick to where they are and say they will have a referendum
:25:43. > :25:49.on it, then that will become, de facto, a referendum on in or out.
:25:49. > :25:54.If they lose it, it opens up the whole question. Your government
:25:54. > :25:58.promises a referendum on Lisbon, we never got it. Surely, if there is
:25:58. > :26:02.to be major treaty changes again, why shouldn't there be? There
:26:02. > :26:07.should be, I agree with the Government on that. Whether it
:26:07. > :26:14.becomes in or out in all but name, the referendum you are after, I'm
:26:14. > :26:18.not sure. Just to be clear, you're recruiting sergeant at the moment
:26:18. > :26:25.is the President of the commission. For him to argue they should be a
:26:25. > :26:30.5% increase in the budget, and that the answer to the euro-zone is the
:26:30. > :26:35.political integrated project that Europhiles have wanted all along,
:26:35. > :26:40.that is good for the Euro-sceptic cause. Can we trust Mr Cameron? We
:26:40. > :26:44.were promised referendums. The wording was changed under the
:26:44. > :26:47.Labour government. The next treaty changes likely to be with the
:26:47. > :26:51.eurozone. Cameron would say that we are not in that, so therefore we
:26:51. > :26:55.should not have it. I don't know about the legislation, but it has
:26:55. > :27:05.been cast that if there is a treaty change, there should be a
:27:05. > :27:06.referendum. If you got a referendum on in or out, most Euro-sceptics
:27:06. > :27:12.would still vote yes to stay in? would take issue and say that
:27:12. > :27:17.actually, in an opinion poll commissioned with YouGov last month,
:27:17. > :27:22.more importantly for Conservative Party, 66% of Conservative voters
:27:22. > :27:27.would vote to leave it. But even Euro-sceptics like William Hague
:27:27. > :27:31.said that they would still vote yes to stay in. They want to change it
:27:31. > :27:33.and repatriate powers, but they don't want to leave? It's amazing
:27:34. > :27:39.what they say in opposition. never said he would lead in
:27:39. > :27:48.opposition either. To leave the European Union, under Article 50 of
:27:48. > :27:53.the Lisbon Treaty, to renegotiate, you need unanimity from 27 states.
:27:53. > :27:58.Euro-scepticism, there was a time when it was regarded as... Well,
:27:58. > :28:03.particularly by fashionable opinion, as a rarefied form of madness. It
:28:03. > :28:07.is now mainstream British opinion? I think so. What is interesting is
:28:07. > :28:14.how many of... And we will see it from the meetings this morning...
:28:14. > :28:18.How many of the new Tory intake are sitting there. I thrill -- still
:28:18. > :28:24.think it's a minority pursuit on our benches. The only people bath
:28:24. > :28:28.with he would work Kate Hoey, the regulars. It shouldn't be seen as a
:28:28. > :28:34.conservative thing. There as many Euro-sceptic Labour people as well.
:28:34. > :28:41.I'm not sure of that. In your heart of hearts, will we still be in the
:28:41. > :28:45.European Union in 10 years' time? Hopefully not! That is two words!
:28:45. > :28:49.know what you hope, it is what you thought I was asking about. Thanks