:00:41. > :00:44.Afternoon, folks. Welcome to The Daily Politics. So Wallace and
:00:44. > :00:47.Grommit are happy, but what do Victor Meldrew and his Missus make
:00:47. > :00:52.of it all. It's the morning after the night before and everyone's
:00:52. > :00:57.asking, is Boy George Robin Hood? Or the artful dodger with a grudge
:00:57. > :01:01.against pensioners? Yes, not all the newspaper headlines made pretty
:01:01. > :01:10.reading for the Chancellor this morning. Most have picked up on the
:01:10. > :01:13.so-called granny tax. One of the few bits of the Budget not leaked,
:01:13. > :01:15.there could be a lesson there. "Mugged", exclaimed one paper.
:01:15. > :01:19.We'll have all the analysis. Chancellor's confident the economy
:01:19. > :01:29.will avoid a double dip recession. We'll be looking in more detail at
:01:29. > :01:31.the economic picture and asking what business makes of it all.
:01:31. > :01:35.Osborne announced yesterday that we'll be saving over �2 billion in
:01:35. > :01:38.Afghanistan. But what should our exit strategy be? And we'll be
:01:38. > :01:48.talking to one army officer who wants to swap his colonel cap for a
:01:48. > :01:49.
:01:49. > :01:53.All that in the next hour, and with us for quite a lot of it, to digest,
:01:53. > :02:02.to cogitate and to mull over the budget we have a panel of the very
:02:02. > :02:04.best. A kaleidoscopic panel, no less, of different political hues.
:02:04. > :02:06.The Conservative back bencher, Elizabeth Truss, the Shadow
:02:06. > :02:10.Economic Secretary to the Treasury, Owen Smith, and the Liberal
:02:10. > :02:18.Democrat Treasury Spokesman, Stephen Williams. Welcome to you
:02:18. > :02:28.all. Now, without further ado, let's get down to the Budget. In a
:02:28. > :02:28.
:02:28. > :02:32.moment, we'll be looking at the detail. But first let's cast an eye
:02:32. > :02:35.over the post-Budget morning round of political interviews. If you
:02:36. > :02:39.take the changes this government has made, the tax changes we are
:02:39. > :02:42.talking about plus the increase in the basic state pension, they will
:02:42. > :02:47.be better off under this government. The policies of this government
:02:47. > :02:50.have made them better off because of a really big increase in the
:02:50. > :02:54.basic state pension. People don't have to take my word for it, and a
:02:54. > :02:58.couple of weeks they will see the pension come in and can see for it
:02:58. > :03:02.themselves. They have put the pension up because inflation has
:03:02. > :03:06.been run high over the past year. The pension is going up because
:03:06. > :03:10.dual is going up and food prices are going up. Pensions are worse
:03:10. > :03:17.off because of a tax rise on pensioners. Pensioners will also
:03:17. > :03:21.pay the extra fuel duty this August, the higher alcohol duty. There is
:03:21. > :03:27.no granny tax. No pensioner will have any money taken away from them
:03:27. > :03:33.that they currently have coming to them. They will be getting pension
:03:33. > :03:37.increases in April. That will be �5.30 a week on the state pension.
:03:37. > :03:43.Don't believe this new tag that has been coined in some of the papers,
:03:43. > :03:47.there is not a granny tax. There is a change in the future in the
:03:47. > :03:51.allowance is affecting a minority of pensioners, and for them, net,
:03:51. > :03:57.there will be better off, because the pension gives far more than the
:03:57. > :04:03.changing of the threshold takes away.
:04:03. > :04:06.Your breakfast table this morning. -- that is what was being said over
:04:06. > :04:11.your breakfast table this morning. For what will this Budget be
:04:11. > :04:15.remembered? I think it will be remembered as a Budget for work,
:04:15. > :04:20.for business, for making Britain competitive again. Before this
:04:20. > :04:24.Budget we had the highest income tax top rate in the G20. I think
:04:24. > :04:28.that showed business was not open in Britain, that we would not get
:04:28. > :04:32.investment into our country, other thing that is a vital change.
:04:32. > :04:36.Budget for business? I think it is important, a Budget for jobs, for
:04:36. > :04:42.getting more people into employment. I think raising the threshold on
:04:42. > :04:47.low earners will really help, give more people an incentive to work.
:04:47. > :04:52.am going to hold back until later. Owen Smith, what do you think this
:04:52. > :04:58.Budget will be remembered for? things. It will be remembered for
:04:58. > :05:03.giving a big tax bung to the wealthiest 1% in our society.
:05:03. > :05:07.�10,000 per man and woman, earning over �150,000. It will be
:05:07. > :05:11.remembered for paying for that by introducing effectively a stealth
:05:11. > :05:16.tax on pensioners. And the Lib Dem, Stephen Williams. I am a keen
:05:16. > :05:22.student of studying budgets, back to my degree in economic history.
:05:22. > :05:28.At Bristol University. There's a university, there? There is, one of
:05:28. > :05:32.the best in the country, I can assure you. This will be remembered
:05:32. > :05:38.for one of the biggest tax breaks in a generation. For 30 years, the
:05:38. > :05:45.largest rise in allowance, and a tax cut of over �500 for 24 million
:05:45. > :05:50.people. Finally, on the leaks, I understand the Speaker has allowed
:05:50. > :05:54.Chris Leslie to debate this morning. Do you think the Chancellor will
:05:54. > :05:58.have learned that if in the end, he looks everything except the bit
:05:58. > :06:02.that is controversial and is going to cause problems, he will end up
:06:02. > :06:07.getting the headlines he deserves. Which is what he got this morning.
:06:07. > :06:11.I think what we have seen under the coalition is a real debate about
:06:11. > :06:16.the kind of measures that should be in the Budget. Income versus wealth
:06:16. > :06:21.taxes, consumption tax, how do we make our country more competitive.
:06:21. > :06:27.I am talking about the leaks, why didn't he leak the bad bits as well
:06:27. > :06:31.as the good bits? I don't necessarily think... I guess it is
:06:31. > :06:35.an improvement on the day when Gordon Brown would not Lee go to
:06:35. > :06:40.the Prime Minister what was in the Budget. -- would not leak to the
:06:40. > :06:43.Prime Minister. We saw an arms race between these two last week, trying
:06:43. > :06:49.to get out of their version of events, until they got to the point
:06:49. > :06:53.where there was nothing left to leak apart from the bad news.
:06:53. > :06:59.will give you the last word since your side was doing most of the
:06:59. > :07:02.leaking. I think it is public negotiation. What the blue bits
:07:03. > :07:07.were in the Budget and the yellow birds... This is coalition politics
:07:07. > :07:12.and we better get used to it -- the yellow bits. Not the way that
:07:12. > :07:17.coalitions work in Germany, Italy, Sweden or Norway, but that is
:07:17. > :07:27.another issue. It is measures over your money and mine that have been
:07:27. > :07:29.creating the headlines. It's the first thing we look for,
:07:29. > :07:32.those all-important tax measures. Of course, the world's worst kept
:07:32. > :07:36.secret was that the top rate tax for those earning over �150,000
:07:36. > :07:39.will be cut from 50p to 45p from April 2013. The measure that both
:07:39. > :07:42.parties in the coalition are keen to take credit for is the rise in
:07:42. > :07:45.the personal income tax allowance to �9,205. The higher rate tax
:07:45. > :07:48.threshold, which is the level of salary you need to earn before
:07:48. > :07:52.being drawn into the 40% tax band, is to be reduced from �42,475 to
:07:52. > :07:56.�41,450, and there's going to be a new stamp duty rate of 7% for homes
:07:56. > :08:06.worth over 2 million, as well as new measures to clamp down on tax
:08:06. > :08:06.
:08:06. > :08:08.avoidance. And finally there's the controversial measure that's been
:08:08. > :08:11.dubbed, granny tax. The extra tax allowance pensioners currently
:08:11. > :08:14.receive will be frozen until the personal allowances of those in
:08:14. > :08:20.work catch up, and the allowance will be scrapped altogether for new
:08:20. > :08:23.pensioners from 2013. Let's get the thoughts of Andrew Lilico from the
:08:23. > :08:33.Institute of Economic Affairs, who's enjoying the sun in
:08:33. > :08:33.
:08:33. > :08:39.Westminster. The headlines say it all, this doesn't look pretty for
:08:39. > :08:42.George Osborne, with his granny I think the most important measure
:08:42. > :08:48.is the big rise in personal allowance. I think we have seen
:08:48. > :08:50.quite a profound shift politically, from a time in the late 1980s
:08:51. > :08:55.through to three or four years ago, went whenever you thought of
:08:55. > :08:59.cutting taxes and particularly income taxes, you were going to be
:08:59. > :09:03.cutting the basic rate. We had shifted decisively to a concert
:09:03. > :09:07.where if you want to cut income tax you raised people out of tax
:09:07. > :09:11.altogether by increasing the personal allowance. I think the
:09:11. > :09:15.government will be remembered for deficit-reduction and a rise in
:09:15. > :09:20.personal allowance. Do you agree that George Osborne did the right
:09:20. > :09:23.thing in terms of freezing allowances for pensioners? I think
:09:23. > :09:26.it is philosophically indefensible to have a lower tax rates for
:09:26. > :09:30.pensioners. I think they were introduced in a very different time
:09:30. > :09:35.when there were not really state pensions in the 1920s, when these
:09:35. > :09:40.ideas first came in. I think they are long obsolete and there was a
:09:40. > :09:44.very strong argument for increasing the basic state pension and also
:09:44. > :09:47.means-tested pension allowances, and taking away these tax
:09:47. > :09:51.allowances, which is what they have done. The mistake that the
:09:51. > :09:59.Chancellor made was not to face up for that but to bury it away in the
:09:59. > :10:04.detail. Looking at what he has done, there is a sort of unspoken rule,
:10:04. > :10:08.as Gordon Brown found out, that if you do anything that is viewed as
:10:08. > :10:12.heating, or reducing the benefits to pensioners, you run into trouble.
:10:12. > :10:15.That is absolutely right. He would have been better to have argued for
:10:15. > :10:19.it directly. I think he had a very strong case to make, that when you
:10:19. > :10:22.thought about the increases in the state pension and means-tested
:10:22. > :10:27.allowances, and also the ways in which pensioners themselves might
:10:27. > :10:31.have gained from other kinds of tax measures, they were gainers out of
:10:31. > :10:35.these measures overall. To make that argument he had to argue it
:10:35. > :10:40.directly. Instead, he has buried it in the detail which has allowed
:10:40. > :10:45.people do have a exaggerated notion of the granny tax. Much of the cost
:10:45. > :10:48.associated with this granny tax idea is the inversion in the rise
:10:48. > :10:58.of personal allowance, because otherwise they would have gained
:10:58. > :10:59.
:10:59. > :11:03.Let's talk to our panel about the tax. Let's come on to what you said
:11:03. > :11:10.it was the real point in the Budget from the Lib Dem perspective, of
:11:10. > :11:14.raising the threshold to �9,205. There will be no tax for most
:11:14. > :11:18.people on the first sum that they earn of that amount. Were you aware
:11:18. > :11:26.that one of the prices for that would be that 300,000 people would
:11:26. > :11:32.have to be swept into the 40% tax One of the things I was advocating
:11:32. > :11:36.a few days ago, you said, how am I going -- how are we going to pay
:11:36. > :11:42.for the proposal and I said, one of the issues is clawing back on
:11:42. > :11:47.pension tax relief. Is this a price worth paying? That 300,000 very
:11:47. > :11:50.middle income people, with the families, who are not rich by any
:11:50. > :11:54.strength of the imagination, particularly if they live in the
:11:54. > :12:00.South East, where costs are much higher, were you aware that for
:12:00. > :12:04.them, their marginal rate would become 40%? What the government has
:12:04. > :12:08.done is precisely that measure, that we have wanted to make sure
:12:08. > :12:13.that the raising of the threshold, the majority of the benefit was
:12:13. > :12:18.failed by basic rate tax payers rather than at more exclusively
:12:18. > :12:25.higher rate taxpayers -- was felled by. Pulling back the threshold
:12:25. > :12:30.means higher rate taxpayers benefit but only to the same percent.
:12:30. > :12:34.you happy that a tax break which was originally set by Nigel Watts -
:12:34. > :12:38.- Nigel Lawson for the wealthy, is now faced by Derek middle income
:12:38. > :12:41.earners, by long-serving -- long- serving policeman, the head of an
:12:41. > :12:46.English department in a small comprehensive. Are you comfortable
:12:46. > :12:49.that these people should be paying 40% to pay for your threshold?
:12:50. > :12:54.Happy would be the wrong word. I am not in favour of heavy taxes on
:12:54. > :12:58.people who go out to work. That is what you have done. The philosophy
:12:58. > :13:03.is raising people out of income tax and giving a break to the people
:13:03. > :13:09.who do go out to work. Higher-rate taxpayers will benefit, it is just
:13:09. > :13:13.they will benefit at the same rate as basic rate taxpayers. Let's
:13:13. > :13:21.stick with middle earners. Under your skin, if you are earning
:13:21. > :13:24.between 50 and �60,000 -- under your scheme... In London and the
:13:24. > :13:30.South East, that is not an unusual income, and you are a family of
:13:30. > :13:40.three, what is your marginal tax rate going to be now? Be higher
:13:40. > :13:41.
:13:41. > :13:46.than it was before any idea how Have you will have 42% tax and
:13:46. > :13:54.National Insurance, and 24.5% clawback from the child benefit.
:13:54. > :14:02.Let me finish. If you are earning between 50 and 60,000, every extra
:14:02. > :14:08.pound you earn between that gap, you will lose 66.5% of that �1. Are
:14:09. > :14:12.you happy with that? It is not ideal but we face a very difficult
:14:12. > :14:16.situation with the deficit. It is certainly preferable to the
:14:16. > :14:20.previous situation, which was a straight cliff edge that we faced
:14:21. > :14:25.just at the higher rate tax band. The people that may be trying to
:14:25. > :14:30.better themselves and get on well be facing a 66.5% marginal rate of
:14:30. > :14:34.tax? I completely agree that it is not ideal and in the long term, we
:14:34. > :14:38.should seek to sort these issues out. The fact is that we are facing
:14:38. > :14:47.a massive Budget deficit, we need to find the money to deal with that
:14:47. > :14:52.deficit. And that we have tapered the withdrawal of child benefit
:14:52. > :14:56.that -- in a way that hadn't been done before. The situation has
:14:56. > :15:00.improved. Is it right that we ask the people lower down the income
:15:00. > :15:10.scale, earning 20,000, to pay for the child benefit of people owning
:15:10. > :15:14.
:15:14. > :15:21.Look at the time from �100,000 and upwards. There is a very high.
:15:21. > :15:26.There is nothing about that. point is... No. No. You made the
:15:26. > :15:35.point. I want to ask you, what is the justice of people on �50,000
:15:35. > :15:40.paying a tax rate of .66.5%, when those over �140,000 will be paying
:15:40. > :15:43.55%. Where is the justice? Those people earning over �150,000 will
:15:43. > :15:48.be paying more money on property. Only if they are selling or buying
:15:48. > :15:53.a house? Which is only 1% normally of the people in that bracket.
:15:53. > :15:58.That group will be paying more and we have seen the �150,000 tax rate
:15:58. > :16:02.didn't raise any money. The 50% tax rate... That's not true.
:16:02. > :16:05.It raised no money. We saw a 25% drop in the level of income amongst
:16:05. > :16:08.that group. Well, let's come on to that.
:16:08. > :16:15.It was a tax that didn't raise any money.
:16:15. > :16:19.No. No, you have had your say. Let me come on to someone else now. Are
:16:19. > :16:24.you comfortable that Labour's main critique of this Budget which Ed
:16:24. > :16:30.Miliband went on yesterday is the cut from 50 to 45 pence when HMRC
:16:31. > :16:34.and the OBR say it cost about �100 million a year? Well, let's look at
:16:35. > :16:41.the �100 million number. It is a number on which lots of the aspects
:16:41. > :16:46.of this Budget hang. It is calculated on page 52 of the HMRC
:16:46. > :16:51.report, table A2, the calculation shows that the HMRC anticipate
:16:51. > :16:56.getting �3 billion a year steady state from the 50 pence rate, but
:16:56. > :17:02.in the previous 51 pages of that document, in theoretical, under
:17:02. > :17:05.graduate style economics, it suggests that the basically
:17:05. > :17:10.principle would result in behavioural change that will
:17:10. > :17:15.realise �2.9 billion. That's where the �100 million comes from, but in
:17:15. > :17:21.the first year we netted �1 billion extra, not �100 million, �1 billion
:17:21. > :17:27.and they concede that going forward it would be �3 billion. They don't
:17:27. > :17:32.concede that? No, they do. They don't concede that. What they
:17:32. > :17:35.say is that the transitional arrangements mean that �100, maybe
:17:35. > :17:40.too low a calculation because people are ducking and diving, but
:17:40. > :17:43.that going forward, you would get nothing like �3 billion. Now for
:17:44. > :17:48.the sake of revenues... Well, if I can come back on that.
:17:48. > :17:52.What I really want to get to you, is it really Labour's policy that
:17:52. > :17:57.once again this country should have the highest top rate of income tax
:17:57. > :18:02.of the G20? Is that Labour's policy? We think it is right now,
:18:02. > :18:09.completely the wrong thing to do to cut the 50 pence rate.
:18:09. > :18:13.We think they could have kept it. They could have recouped �1 billion
:18:13. > :18:21.a year. And that would have been a fair way, but to use that money to
:18:21. > :18:24.use that money to give a big bung, �40,000 to 14 millionaires, 14,000
:18:24. > :18:28.millionaires, it is crazy. It is the wrong priority.
:18:28. > :18:34.The money is being recouped by property taxes on that group.
:18:34. > :18:42.it is not. Yes, it is. It is five times the amount raised by that tax.
:18:42. > :18:46.It is complete smoke in mirrors. You shouldn't even report this...
:18:46. > :18:51.When income is mobile that time to tax that is fruitless, it is better
:18:51. > :18:56.to put put those taxes on property and to reform our tax system in
:18:56. > :18:59.that way. Why is it that every other country in the G20, why is it
:18:59. > :19:04.that every other country in the G20 doesn't have a top rate as high as
:19:04. > :19:10.that? Are they all wrong? Are they all wrong? What is the answer to
:19:10. > :19:12.that question? It was a scorched earth policy. Let me answer it. The
:19:13. > :19:19.reality is yes, we have got a high top rate.
:19:19. > :19:25.You have got the highest? Yes, and what point does it kick in, at
:19:25. > :19:31.�150,000. At what point does it kick in in trance 72,000 euros. The
:19:31. > :19:35.top rate in this country was was only being levied on people earning
:19:35. > :19:40.over �150,000. That's a large amount of money and those people
:19:40. > :19:44.have been given a big bung. It is interesting to get a straight
:19:44. > :19:48.answer. The Government is banking on the private sector to get the
:19:48. > :19:54.economy back on track. Let's look at how they they plan to do it.
:19:54. > :19:57.George Osborne has been proudly trum trumpeting that his Bug has
:19:57. > :20:02.been designed to give businesses a helping hand. Let's look at the
:20:03. > :20:08.details, corporation will be cut -- corporation tax will be cut to 24%.
:20:08. > :20:12.By April 2014, it will be 22%. More enterprise zones are to be created
:20:12. > :20:16.in Scotland and Wales and there will be tax relief for video games,
:20:16. > :20:21.animation and so high end television productions. Good news
:20:21. > :20:24.for this programme! �130 million is to be earmarked for
:20:24. > :20:27.improving the rail network in the north of England and there will be
:20:27. > :20:37.a consultation on simpifying the tax system for small businesses. We
:20:37. > :20:38.
:20:38. > :20:43.will all be able to shop until we drop during the Olympics with the
:20:43. > :20:51.relaxation of the trading laws. Joining us now is Dr Adam Marshall.
:20:51. > :20:56.Was it a Budget for business? it depends what size business you
:20:56. > :21:00.are. Many of the smallest, the one man bands will be happy about
:21:00. > :21:04.simplification of taxes, but there is a lot of solid citizen companies,
:21:04. > :21:09.small and medium sized companies up and down the country that would
:21:09. > :21:13.have looked at yesterday's Budget and said, "There is not a lot in it
:21:13. > :21:19.for me. No relief on business rates. No relief on investment allowances
:21:19. > :21:23.when a lot have plant and machinery they want to buy." No help to get
:21:23. > :21:26.young people into work. A lot of of those companies are scratching
:21:26. > :21:31.their heads and saying, "I think the Chancellor could have done
:21:31. > :21:35.more.". I spent the day with small and medium sized businesses in the
:21:35. > :21:40.Midlands and they echoed what you said. If the Government wanted to
:21:40. > :21:43.encourage us to take on new employees and want us to grow,
:21:43. > :21:49.there wasn't anything tangable enough for them? That's right.
:21:49. > :21:53.There is a huge number of companies up and down the country, some some
:21:53. > :21:57.with 50 or 150 employees, many will have been in business for
:21:57. > :22:01.generations and they will say, "This feels like a Budget for big
:22:01. > :22:06.corporations and the smallest of businesses." While companies will
:22:06. > :22:10.be happy to see the back of the 50 pence tax rate, while they will be
:22:10. > :22:15.happy to see corporation tax coming down, they wanted more immediate
:22:15. > :22:18.help on growth and more reassurance and confidence from Government
:22:18. > :22:22.policy. Business I spoke to yesterday were
:22:22. > :22:28.disappointed that not more was done by fuel duty. They were united in
:22:28. > :22:31.that? Abouts A bugbear for many companies particularly outside the
:22:31. > :22:33.South East where the car is the key mode of transport for so many
:22:33. > :22:38.people, not just for getting to work, but for conducting business.
:22:38. > :22:41.Fuel duty is a big issue and it reverberates across rural
:22:41. > :22:48.businesses communities and in many cities and towns outside the South
:22:48. > :22:53.East. Let's look at this business of
:22:53. > :22:59.corporation tax cut. It has been speeded up, it is down to 24%, the
:22:59. > :23:05.idea is to go to 22% by 2014 and a longer term goal of getting to 20%
:23:05. > :23:08.is the Government's position. What is the estimate of how much this
:23:08. > :23:18.cut in corporation tax will add to business investment?
:23:18. > :23:20.
:23:20. > :23:26.Well, I don't know what the precise estimate is. It is 1% by 2016. It
:23:26. > :23:32.will increase business investment by 1% by 2014. What will that do to
:23:32. > :23:38.growth? What will that do to growth? It will add 0.1% to the
:23:38. > :23:43.national income. So what is the point? That's an estimate.
:23:43. > :23:46.Yes, it is the OBR estimate. Well, it is your office of budget
:23:46. > :23:49.responsibility, you set it up? rates are one way of helping
:23:49. > :23:52.businesses, but there are other things that we are doing in the
:23:52. > :23:59.Budget so the airport capacity in the south-east is very important.
:23:59. > :24:02.The reform to roads, roads tolling, moving tax, I hope, away from fuel
:24:02. > :24:07.duty in the long-term. But how much will business
:24:07. > :24:14.investment rise this year? Well, how much, we don't know at
:24:14. > :24:18.this stage? Well according to the OBR it will be 7% less than the
:24:18. > :24:24.original estimate. So it is 7%, it is growing by 7% less than it would
:24:24. > :24:29.have done only a year ago. So it is down by 7% this year and will rise
:24:29. > :24:34.by 1% by 2016, so where is the supply side breakthrough?
:24:34. > :24:37.Well, what we need to do, we need to do more on jobs, specifically,
:24:37. > :24:41.on exempting small businesses from employment regulations on those
:24:41. > :24:47.steps, we need to take forward and that is being consulted on by the
:24:47. > :24:57.Government at the moment. didn't mention for for jobs for
:24:57. > :24:57.
:24:57. > :25:00.young people yesterday? Why did he not do that? All right let me ask
:25:00. > :25:06.your coalition colleague here. Do you believe this is a Budget for
:25:06. > :25:09.growth? Yes. The eurozone growth forecasts have been downgraded by
:25:09. > :25:13.the office for budget budget responsibility and the British
:25:13. > :25:15.forecasts have been upgraded. But that's a joke.
:25:15. > :25:20.But it is still going in the right direction.
:25:20. > :25:24.Actually, it is not because they have downgraded the forecast for
:25:24. > :25:29.2013. They have downgraded that? But still showing growth.
:25:29. > :25:33.No, if you add the growth this year and next year, according to the
:25:33. > :25:38.office of office responsibility it is flat? And unemployment falling
:25:38. > :25:44.throughout that period as well. I need to get awe copy of the red
:25:44. > :25:49.book. If If this is a Budget for growth, why has the OBR not changed
:25:49. > :25:54.the growth projections? The OBR is is showing stagnant growth this
:25:54. > :26:00.year. It has reduced growth for next year and it has kept it the
:26:00. > :26:04.same for 2014 and 2015, if it was a Budget for growth, why was the OBR
:26:05. > :26:08.not able to uprate its growth projection? You have to take
:26:08. > :26:12.account what is going on in the rest of the world. Our friends from
:26:12. > :26:16.the Labour Party for the last two years they have been predicting a
:26:16. > :26:19.double-dip recession. That has not happened. Our independent... So it
:26:19. > :26:23.is the eurozone's fault, is that what you are saying?
:26:23. > :26:28.Well, the eurozone has... And this is the same eurozone I believe that
:26:28. > :26:32.your party used to want us to join? Well, if you want to go back 13
:26:32. > :26:38.years and rehearse the arguments between 1997 and 1999 about whether
:26:38. > :26:44.it was right to join the eurozone, we can do that. What would Labour
:26:44. > :26:48.do to encourage business to invest? We would have introduced measures
:26:48. > :26:51.for small businesses, the NIC holiday, we have talked about would
:26:51. > :26:55.have stimulated the economy. It would have been something as we
:26:55. > :26:58.heard earlier on that would have helped small business take on new
:26:58. > :27:02.workers. We would have cut VAT across-the-board which would have
:27:02. > :27:06.been a stimulus to the retail sector. It would have been...
:27:06. > :27:09.Interest rates would have gone up? I don't think interest rates would
:27:09. > :27:16.have gone up. Really, don't you follow the bond
:27:16. > :27:19.markets? If we introduced a 2.5% reduction in VAT.
:27:19. > :27:26.A big risk? No, I don't think that would have been a big risk.
:27:26. > :27:30.Really? No, in the current climate? You can't guarantee that? I don't
:27:30. > :27:35.think most economists would suggest if you made a temporary cut to VAT
:27:35. > :27:39.you would see the bond market... Most analysts would say if the
:27:39. > :27:42.Government was to leave its deficit reduction plan.
:27:42. > :27:45.That's different. They are having to borrow more
:27:45. > :27:52.money as a result of more people being out of work. We know the
:27:52. > :27:56.truth it is �158 billion extra. OBR factored the measures in the Budget
:27:56. > :28:01.and it is projecting flat growth. We have to move on. We have a lot
:28:01. > :28:04.of ground to cover here, you know! I will be looking for a bonus. Oh,
:28:04. > :28:08.you are not allowed bonuses anymore! Let's hear what Mr
:28:08. > :28:12.Osbourne said about the economy. Yes the office for budgetary
:28:13. > :28:18.responsibility has been looking into its crystal ball. The growth
:28:18. > :28:26.forecasts for this year have been revised up. The forecasts for 2013
:28:26. > :28:31.is 2% and for 20 shrks the OBR thinks it will be 2.7%.
:28:31. > :28:34.Unemployment is forecast to peak at 1.67 million by the end of 2012 and
:28:34. > :28:42.it is thought inflation will fall during the rest of this year and it
:28:42. > :28:52.will be close to the 2% target by early 2013. Those borrowing figures,
:28:52. > :28:58.this year we are set to borrow �136 billion. It could be as low as �21
:28:58. > :29:03.billion by 2016/17. This will mean our total debt could be nearly �1.5
:29:03. > :29:07.trillion. Eye watering. We can speak to Allister Heath. Thank you
:29:07. > :29:10.for coming on the programme. Let's look at the borrowing figures. Only
:29:10. > :29:14.�1 billion than was forecast, disappointing for the Chancellor?
:29:14. > :29:18.It is not great news. For the first six or seven months of the year,
:29:18. > :29:22.the Chancellor spent a lot less money than he was expecting to and
:29:22. > :29:25.the figures look better, but suddenly yesterday, one of the
:29:26. > :29:30.additional figures that was released in addition to the Budget
:29:30. > :29:33.showed there is a lot of borrowing going on in February. It is not
:29:33. > :29:37.really improving at any faster rate. My big worry however is the growth
:29:37. > :29:42.figures. The growth figures for this year are probably realistic,
:29:42. > :29:47.but for next year onwards, they are hopeful and in four years time,
:29:47. > :29:52.they are optimistic. Anyone talk being 3% growth. That's a massive
:29:52. > :29:56.gamble on growth. You have this big problem which is all the forecasts
:29:56. > :30:00.rely on the large rebound in activity in three or four years and
:30:00. > :30:03.not enough on spending cuts at the moment. I don't think that the
:30:04. > :30:08.Chancellor did enough to boost growth in his Budget. There were
:30:08. > :30:13.some good measures like on cutting the top rate of tax and corporation
:30:13. > :30:17.taxks but too few people saw their marginal tax rates fall. Only 7% of
:30:17. > :30:20.the public saw their marginal tax rates fall and a lot of people saw
:30:20. > :30:22.it increase because of the way child benefit will be taken away
:30:22. > :30:26.from people. What do you think would be more
:30:26. > :30:31.realistic in terms of growth prospects? How much lower do you
:30:32. > :30:35.think they will be? It is impossible to gauge these things
:30:35. > :30:39.accurately. It is unrealistic to think that you will get such a
:30:39. > :30:46.rebound in growth. Anything could happen. The the eurozone crisis
:30:46. > :30:51.could continue. China could slow down. There is huge uncertainties.
:30:51. > :30:54.The whole of the long-term public finances of this country rely on
:30:54. > :30:57.growth forecasts and the Government has not done enough to achieve the
:30:58. > :31:03.growth forecast. There was good good stuff in the Budget when it
:31:03. > :31:05.came to growth. This was a Budget for growth, but a Budget for growth
:31:05. > :31:14.because he should have cut more things and cut more taxes.
:31:15. > :31:19.We are joined by viewers from Scotland, welcome to The Daily
:31:19. > :31:29.Politics. We have been asking questions about the state of the
:31:29. > :31:32.
:31:32. > :31:38.economy. Let me come to you, Owen Smith. The coalition inherited a
:31:38. > :31:44.deficit of over 11% of GDP. By 2016, they will have got that deficit
:31:44. > :31:49.down to about 1% of GDP. That is a result, isn't it? If they achieve
:31:49. > :31:57.it. It is reliant on them achieving growth numbers that most people
:31:57. > :32:00.think are pretty heroic in their assumptions. These are the growth
:32:00. > :32:06.assumptions that Alistair Darling made in his four-year plan, they
:32:06. > :32:09.are no different from yours. That is not quite true. We were
:32:09. > :32:13.anticipating that the trajectory was going to be a lot fluttered
:32:13. > :32:18.towards the 3%, as opposed to where we are right now, having gone into
:32:18. > :32:23.a trough, anticipating this great big bounce back. There is a very
:32:23. > :32:30.big difference between the level of growth we were anticipating. Our
:32:30. > :32:34.economy was growing as we left office, at 2%. It is now growing at
:32:34. > :32:41.0.8%. That was before the eurozone crisis, where every economy has
:32:41. > :32:48.been downgraded. Absolutely true. I was at a business breakfast myself,
:32:48. > :32:52.business people don't feel this was a Budget for growth. I don't
:32:52. > :32:59.understand how your policy is any different from the coalition's. If
:32:59. > :33:04.you take a graph of how debt, which is a key motive... The Chancellor
:33:04. > :33:08.mixed up the debt and the deficit yesterday. If you take a chance --
:33:08. > :33:16.chart of how debt was to accumulate and Alistair Darling, it peaks at
:33:16. > :33:20.1.4 trillion by 2016. If you take this government's chart, it pizza -
:33:20. > :33:25.- it peaks at 1.4 trillion in 2016. Your trajectories are the same and
:33:25. > :33:28.I sometimes wonder what you are arguing about. We are going about
:33:28. > :33:34.the manner in which we would have tried to bring down the debt over
:33:34. > :33:37.all. You are not bringing down the debt. They are borrowing an extra 6
:33:37. > :33:42.billion this February versus last February. They are borrowing in
:33:42. > :33:46.order to pay for more people out of work and fewer people paying tax.
:33:46. > :33:56.If we were in power, I think we would have seen more stimulus in
:33:56. > :34:01.the economy. Is the Darling plan still Labour policy. Yeah. Yes, of
:34:01. > :34:07.course, we would be halving the deficit over this Parliament. The
:34:07. > :34:10.status of this economy that we are going to inherit is very different.
:34:10. > :34:15.What happened under the Labour government is that we saw a
:34:15. > :34:19.reduction in productivity, of growth that was fuelled by debt and
:34:19. > :34:23.public spending. We have had to put a stop to that. It was fuelled by
:34:23. > :34:30.public spending and now we have got a debt which is higher than it has
:34:30. > :34:35.ever been before. I think the point is, there is no magic bullet.
:34:35. > :34:39.had a pound bought some time -- every time somebody said that, I
:34:40. > :34:47.would be able to buy a magic bullet. Can you let your coalition partner
:34:47. > :34:50.speak? Having sat through umpteen debates for the last few years,
:34:50. > :34:54.every Labour backbencher who speaks opposes one aspect of what the
:34:54. > :34:58.coalition is doing, whether it is the VAT rise, changes in tax rates,
:34:58. > :35:02.what we are doing to reform the benefit system. There is no
:35:02. > :35:06.coherence amongst the Labour Party. Or what on earth they should do to
:35:06. > :35:09.tackle this deficit. You may say you want to reduce the deficit.
:35:09. > :35:14.Among still parliamentary colleagues, none of them support
:35:14. > :35:18.any of the measures that the government is doing. One thing we
:35:18. > :35:23.are clear and coherent on, it is the wrong thing to do yesterday, to
:35:23. > :35:33.cut pensioners' income in order to give a tax benefit... Their incomes
:35:33. > :35:36.
:35:36. > :35:39.have not been cut. The allowances How do you feel about �10 billion
:35:39. > :35:44.more of welfare cuts? That is possibly going to happen towards
:35:44. > :35:47.the end of the parliament, or early in the next Parliament. But of
:35:47. > :35:51.course, we can have a major reform of the welfare system through
:35:51. > :35:55.Universal Credit, starting next year, in order to deal with the
:35:55. > :35:59.labyrinth of benefit entitlements that Gordon Brown has left behind,
:35:59. > :36:05.and to make it clear with tax reforms that being in work really
:36:05. > :36:08.does pay. I think we better leave it there. Plenty more to talk about
:36:08. > :36:13.in this Budget. The interesting thing for the newspapers will be
:36:13. > :36:17.not how bad it was today, but what it looks like at the weekend. Iain
:36:17. > :36:20.Macleod used to say that a Budget that was well received the day
:36:20. > :36:27.after would be trashed by the weekend, and warned that was
:36:27. > :36:32.trashed the day after would be well-received... We will see... If
:36:32. > :36:36.that maxim holds up. Thanks to all three of you. Now to Afghanistan,
:36:36. > :36:43.an issue that came to the fore at yesterday's PMQs. Lets take a look
:36:43. > :36:46.Following the Prime Minister's recent trip to Washington, we now
:36:46. > :36:49.know that the timetable for the withdrawal of British and other
:36:49. > :36:53.international combat forces in Afghanistan will be reviewed at the
:36:53. > :36:57.NATO summit in Chicago in May. The Prime Minister has previously set
:36:57. > :37:03.out a timetable that would see combat operations for British
:37:03. > :37:06.troops seized by the end of 2014. Given the recent statements by the
:37:06. > :37:12.US Defence Secretary and the French President about an accelerated
:37:12. > :37:16.timetable for their trips, can the Prime Minister confirm the British
:37:16. > :37:20.Government's position? -- their troops. What I had said absolutely
:37:20. > :37:24.stance which is that we will not be in a combat role in Afghanistan
:37:24. > :37:28.after 2014, nor will we have anything like the number of groups
:37:28. > :37:32.we have now. We will be performing a training task, particularly
:37:32. > :37:35.helping with the officer training academy. Between now and 2014, it
:37:35. > :37:40.is important we have a sensible profile for the reduction in troop
:37:40. > :37:43.numbers. That should be largely based on the conditions in terms of
:37:43. > :37:53.the three parts of Helmand Province that we are still responsible for,
:37:53. > :37:55.
:37:55. > :38:00.and the transition that takes place. Can the Prime Minister tell us what
:38:00. > :38:06.his assessment of the significance of the Taliban suspending talks is,
:38:06. > :38:12.and does he agree that we owe it to our troops to be more focused on
:38:12. > :38:16.securing a lasting settlement. Since taking office, and the last
:38:16. > :38:20.government took this view as well, the British position has been put
:38:20. > :38:25.that we need to have the best possible solution for the people of
:38:25. > :38:27.Afghanistan. Britain has been pushing for reconciliation and
:38:27. > :38:30.integration and I had very productive talks with President
:38:30. > :38:35.Obama last week, because the American do is the same. They want
:38:35. > :38:38.to support that political process. Of course, the Taliban have said
:38:38. > :38:42.what they said last week. I would make this point. We are committed
:38:42. > :38:46.to handing over to the Afghan government, the Afghan military,
:38:46. > :38:50.the Afghan police, and the numbers of Afghan military and police are
:38:50. > :38:56.on track. We are committed to doing that at the end of 2014. We believe
:38:56. > :39:00.it can happen with a satisfactory outcome for the United Kingdom. It
:39:00. > :39:06.would be better for everyone concerned if it was accompanied by
:39:06. > :39:09.a political settlement. And joining us now for the rest of
:39:09. > :39:13.the programme is Colonel Tim Collins, who served in the Iraq War
:39:13. > :39:17.and is now a member of the Conservative party. Welcome.
:39:17. > :39:22.not a member of the Conservative Party. Thank you for correcting us,
:39:22. > :39:31.we will get rid of the researcher who put that down! Bid was probably
:39:31. > :39:38.And we're also joined by the Shadow Defence Secretary, Jim Murphy. Is
:39:38. > :39:42.it an exit strategy that you think will work? After a fashion. If --
:39:42. > :39:45.it is Afghanistan after all. The question is, is the government and
:39:45. > :39:49.military going to be more robust than the one that the Russians left
:39:49. > :39:56.behind? I think it will be. There is a great deal of effort going
:39:56. > :40:03.into training and I know it is the main focus of the I SFA if -- is
:40:03. > :40:08.You think you will be ready to handle their own affairs when
:40:08. > :40:12.combat troops leave in 2014? difficulty they have is there is a
:40:12. > :40:16.balance between people who have been professionalised and the bulk,
:40:16. > :40:21.as in large numbers of Afghan police. With some of those, the
:40:21. > :40:24.quality is not there but at the heart of it, there is quality. The
:40:24. > :40:30.difficulty is convincing the population do have faith in their
:40:30. > :40:35.armed forces and their police force -- convincing the population to
:40:35. > :40:39.have faith. Do you think the exit strategy is going to work from a
:40:39. > :40:42.timetable point of view? That the bulk of police and armed forces in
:40:42. > :40:50.Afghanistan will be strong enough to hold the country where it is?
:40:50. > :40:54.just don't know yet. We hope so but we don't know so. I agree with what
:40:54. > :40:58.David Cameron and Ed Miliband was saying. I thought David Cameron was
:40:58. > :41:03.a little cavalier when he said that we can leave without a political
:41:03. > :41:07.settlement. I find that really difficult to understand. If that is
:41:07. > :41:14.now the government's policy, it is quite a significant shift. When the
:41:14. > :41:21.Soviets left, it lasted three years. We have been in four was in
:41:21. > :41:24.Afghanistan, this is the 5th. point is, everybody is talking
:41:24. > :41:28.about politics and they have missed the point. Why go there a lot, I
:41:28. > :41:33.employ people there. It is not about politics. The Taliban doesn't
:41:33. > :41:38.exist. The Taliban is a blanket term. There are networks and groups.
:41:38. > :41:42.These people have become criminal entrepreneurs. We don't see any
:41:42. > :41:47.evidence and I work closely with the police, of anyone with any
:41:47. > :41:52.desire whatsoever to roll tanks and takeover couple like Saigon, there
:41:52. > :41:57.is no desire there. -- takeover Kabul. They would like the regime
:41:57. > :42:02.in place to continue them to make money and I think that would go on.
:42:02. > :42:06.In a sandwich in between, there are enough decent Afghans and decent
:42:06. > :42:11.policeman who want to tackle the crime. It is all about crime, not
:42:11. > :42:16.war but crime. Would they be in a position to deal with that? If
:42:16. > :42:22.warlords start taking over parts of Afghanistan... Why would parasites
:42:22. > :42:28.kill the beast they live off? you say there is no need for a
:42:28. > :42:32.political settlement... I am not saying that. Politics are not a
:42:32. > :42:38.higher priority in modern Afghanistan. Should they? Of course,
:42:38. > :42:41.but... What sort of political settlement should there be? If
:42:41. > :42:50.David Cameron is saying we could live without a political settlement,
:42:50. > :42:54.is it to cavalier? The Taliban, to use the broad term, and the various
:42:54. > :42:58.other smaller groups, criminal groups, they rank and file follow
:42:58. > :43:02.their leaders. The rank and file know what they are fighting against.
:43:02. > :43:05.They have no idea on earth what they are fighting for, there is no
:43:05. > :43:09.political aspiration. If we had a political aspiration, we could talk
:43:09. > :43:12.to them but they don't know what to ask for. There is a politics that
:43:12. > :43:16.tolerates the degree of corruption that you are speaking about and we
:43:16. > :43:19.have to make some progress in that. There is a politics that allows and
:43:19. > :43:23.governed space to develop again, where malevolent elements can
:43:23. > :43:26.strike against neighbours and others across the world, and that
:43:26. > :43:33.is why politics is very important. Not the Westminster Classic
:43:33. > :43:38.democratic model, none of us think it is that sort of thing. It still
:43:38. > :43:44.sounds very vague. It is a distasteful thing to say and we are
:43:44. > :43:46.not having the conversation with the public debt, but a degree of
:43:46. > :43:51.Taliban involvement in the government of Afghanistan now seems
:43:51. > :43:57.inevitable. How do we achieve that in a way that on us what the UK
:43:57. > :44:01.forces have been through in the past decade, -- a way that honours.
:44:01. > :44:05.Are we going there to take those people on, deal with Al-Qaeda and
:44:05. > :44:08.take those people on. That is absolutely the point. The criminal
:44:08. > :44:14.elements, the criminal entrepreneurs have been allowed to
:44:14. > :44:17.set the pace. The Taliban, and other groups, whatever they are
:44:17. > :44:23.called, need to have a political agenda that is other than someone
:44:23. > :44:29.else's agenda, other than the Pakistani intelligence services
:44:29. > :44:33.agenda. They need a Pashtun, or northern alliance agenda. That does
:44:33. > :44:39.not exist. I think we might have missed the opportunity to help them
:44:39. > :44:49.develop that. We have to move on, you have only got a few minutes
:44:49. > :44:51.
:44:51. > :44:54.left. What is your response that Two this idea was put forward by
:44:54. > :44:58.the Labour government, that they want to look at the plan on carrier
:44:58. > :45:02.jets. Your viewers would have followed this in detail yet. When
:45:02. > :45:06.the new government came in, they inherited a plan of two aircraft
:45:07. > :45:11.carriers, the biggest in the Royal Navy's history, three times longer
:45:11. > :45:15.than a football pitch. That was the traditional thing that people will
:45:16. > :45:19.have seen, Harrier jump jets, vertical take-off and landing. The
:45:19. > :45:24.government said, let's go with an American-style, Top Gun traditional
:45:24. > :45:28.take off. They look as if they are going back to the original plan.
:45:28. > :45:32.What is the evidence they are looking at this again? They are no
:45:32. > :45:36.longer defending their own policy. The media was full of stories, a
:45:37. > :45:41.soft landing of a massive U-turn. It is a huge embarrassment,
:45:41. > :45:46.political hubris. A sense that they have wasted possibly hundreds of
:45:46. > :45:49.millions of pounds in coming up with a third policy, when there are
:45:49. > :45:53.rarely any two options. The difficulty here is they sold the
:45:53. > :45:57.entire carrier fleet. All 72 of those planes have been sent to
:45:57. > :46:02.America. How long have we got this period of time without question I
:46:02. > :46:05.asked for an urgent question today, it was not granted. I think it is a
:46:05. > :46:10.real worry that an island nation cannot put an aircraft carrier to
:46:10. > :46:20.see, because the one we have crashed into a tug last week.
:46:20. > :46:21.
:46:21. > :46:25.Is this worrying? It is worrying. All three parties would like a
:46:25. > :46:30.European-style defence force as opposed to an expeditionary army.
:46:30. > :46:36.Does it leave us vulnerable? intention is to hide amongst the
:46:36. > :46:39.Europeans. That we would have an aggressive camping organisation
:46:39. > :46:46.like the other Europeans and when things went wrong, hiding in large
:46:46. > :46:49.numbers would protect us. We would have no cas pit why toe why -- pa
:46:49. > :46:55.pa passity to -- capacity to project power.
:46:55. > :46:59.We are not going to have aeroplanes flying off it. I keep saying you
:46:59. > :47:03.don't have to be a military strategist to know what aircraft
:47:03. > :47:10.carriers are meant to do. The jump jet would be more
:47:10. > :47:18.flexible? It doesn't have as much power. It doesn't have long legs,
:47:18. > :47:22.but it can land wherever you wish and the Government got involved in
:47:22. > :47:25.a Defence Review which was rushed. It seems after a lot of money and
:47:26. > :47:29.time, they have gone back to a more expensive option of what we had
:47:29. > :47:36.before. If you told the Speaker that he was
:47:36. > :47:42.going to ask a kaleidoscopic question he might have allowed it!
:47:42. > :47:47.Who would want to be a police commission sner. -- commissioner?
:47:47. > :47:49.Our guest, Tim Collins does! We sent Giles out to find out what the
:47:49. > :47:53.job intales. -- entails.
:47:53. > :47:57.Across the wide range of duties our police have, there is always that
:47:57. > :48:00.question of to hom are they accountable -- whom are they
:48:00. > :48:04.accountable when we are unhappy, a Chief Constable, a police authority,
:48:04. > :48:07.a mayor or a commissioner? In Opposition, the Conservatives
:48:07. > :48:11.propose add new role of elected police and crime commissioners in
:48:11. > :48:15.England and Wales. At the time it is fair to say it was hard to find
:48:15. > :48:19.people, including police, who would warm to the idea. Nonetheless, the
:48:19. > :48:24.post will exist and in November this year elections will take place.
:48:24. > :48:29.In 41 force areas outside London where the mayor is the PCC.
:48:29. > :48:35.Commissioners in the biggest force areas will receive salaries of over
:48:35. > :48:38.�100,000 to set priorities for their police force, oversee budgets
:48:38. > :48:42.and hire the Chief Constable. So far emerging candidates have
:48:42. > :48:49.something in common that begs questions. The main problem with
:48:49. > :48:52.this idea is that the risk that elected politicians will interfere
:48:52. > :48:55.in police operational matters and that's the big challenge and of
:48:55. > :49:00.course, what we have seen so far the majority of people who have put
:49:00. > :49:02.their name into the frame are, of course, politicians or perhaps past
:49:02. > :49:05.politicians. The Conservatives made it a
:49:05. > :49:08.political role and if you have political office, you have to be
:49:08. > :49:12.accountable. You have to be accountable to the public, but it
:49:12. > :49:16.is right to have accountability back to the party structures.
:49:16. > :49:22.Lib Dems will not be giving central party funding to their candidates
:49:22. > :49:25.who may wish to stand. They will not stop them standing, they will
:49:25. > :49:29.not support something they never supported in the first place.
:49:29. > :49:33.Labour are deciding to contest many of the elections because in certain
:49:33. > :49:38.parts of the UK they have a good chance of winning, but there is an
:49:38. > :49:42.elephant in the room. What we hope of course, that will happen, we
:49:42. > :49:47.have strong independent candidates who are not attached to a party,
:49:47. > :49:51.who may have a background that is relevant in terms of policing who
:49:51. > :49:55.may want to come forward. So far there is no real signs that
:49:55. > :50:01.happening and for some the party angle presents a dilemma for number
:50:01. > :50:07.five of the 1829 principles of the police, to seek and preserve public
:50:07. > :50:10.favour not by pandering to public opinion, but by constantly
:50:10. > :50:14.demonstrating impartial service to law in complete independence of
:50:14. > :50:20.policy. Whoever wins the roles will need to demonstrate they can let
:50:20. > :50:23.police do that from Chief Constables to beat officers and
:50:23. > :50:30.preserve the manifestoes upon which they stood.
:50:31. > :50:33.Tim Collins is is hoping to stand as a Conservative candidate. Why
:50:33. > :50:36.aren't you a member of the Conservative Party? Because I have
:50:36. > :50:39.never been a member of any political parties.
:50:39. > :50:43.Don't you have to be a member of the Conservative Party? We will
:50:43. > :50:49.find out after the local elections in May whether the Conservatives
:50:49. > :50:51.want to nominate me as their candidate. They may not. They may
:50:51. > :50:56.have other members who are better candidates.
:50:56. > :51:01.Now, why do you want to do it? One would argue that you are going to
:51:01. > :51:05.come in at a time, presiding over severe cuts to a police force?
:51:05. > :51:08.I think, the first thing which is that, you know, I am not massively
:51:08. > :51:13.keen to do it, but I have been asked by a number of friends and
:51:13. > :51:18.rank and file policemen saying, "We are worried about this. Will you do
:51:18. > :51:23.it?" I said yes perhaps rather precociously. I was in Gravesend
:51:23. > :51:27.last week on one hand talking to victims of crime which I run a
:51:27. > :51:33.company that employees policemen and I was able to ask them what
:51:33. > :51:43.they would regard as would be without a doubt attempted murders
:51:43. > :51:51.or indeed for uninvestigated. In one case a man who was bitten and
:51:51. > :51:54.covered in is a in saliva. Policemen say that morale is very
:51:54. > :51:58.low and the policemen are not encouraged to do their job and
:51:58. > :52:02.there is no support. What sort of politician
:52:02. > :52:08.commissioner -- police commissioner would you be. There are references
:52:08. > :52:12.to you wanting to be like one of the New York-style commissioners?
:52:12. > :52:16.What I would like to see with myself as the chairman of the of
:52:16. > :52:21.the board, the Chief Constable getting on with doing the job
:52:21. > :52:24.without having to look over his shoulder with some bloated
:52:24. > :52:28.authority looking for statistics. What I would like to see and I grew
:52:28. > :52:32.up in Northern Ireland. We had an effective police reserve. I would
:52:32. > :52:34.like to see the specials turned into a police reserve. I would like
:52:34. > :52:39.to see more people coming from communities and volunteering to
:52:39. > :52:42.become involved in policing. Do you think the country needs all that
:52:42. > :52:46.concentration of policing power in the hands of another elected
:52:46. > :52:53.politician? The country doesn't. It is rejnal.
:52:53. > :53:00.It is -- regional, it is each police force. Do we really need
:53:00. > :53:04.that? As opposed to an unelected councillor. In Kent what we receive
:53:04. > :53:08.from our police authority is a glossy magazine which most people
:53:08. > :53:12.recycle and lots of statistics with any amount of photographs of the
:53:12. > :53:15.lady in charge. Does that do us any good? Independence, that's what
:53:15. > :53:19.Labour has been arguing about, why they don't think it is a good idea.
:53:19. > :53:24.Who would be scrute nidsing -- scrutinising you in that position?
:53:24. > :53:27.Who would be saying, "You have become too politicised." There
:53:27. > :53:33.wouldn't be a strong enough body to say that you overstepped the line?
:53:33. > :53:35.It is what we call democracy. It is the the voters who decide, whatever
:53:35. > :53:40.happens on the 15th November, you can be certain of this, the people
:53:40. > :53:43.of Kent and everywhere else will get the police force they deserve.
:53:43. > :53:48.Briefly, the cost, is it the right time to spend because it will cost
:53:48. > :53:52.a lot of money to run the elections, the pay the salaries of the police
:53:52. > :53:56.commission commissioners and the figures are out there that say it
:53:56. > :54:01.would fund 3,000 police officers? Well, what is going to happen to
:54:01. > :54:04.the police authorities. There are 16 people doing the job. I have
:54:04. > :54:10.said I won't accept a salary. I am Irish and my maths aren't great,
:54:10. > :54:13.but that looks like a saving! I haven't worked it out. Trust me,
:54:14. > :54:20.it is. When you meant the the Specials,
:54:20. > :54:26.you didn't mean the B Specials? will call them the B Specials if
:54:26. > :54:32.you like. We sent Adam Adam out to read the
:54:32. > :54:38.It is a case of bad headlines for the Chancellor. The Guardian
:54:38. > :54:44.calling his Budget scth cynical and deluded." The Daily Telegraph are
:54:44. > :54:48.furious about the granny tax. Could that headline be any bigger or
:54:48. > :54:52.angrier? They are angry about it in The Daily Mail saying that George
:54:52. > :54:58.Osborne picked the pockets of pensioners, but they are angry that
:54:58. > :55:03.he wasn't wearing a tie hours just before delivering the Budget. The
:55:03. > :55:08.Daily Mirror have have gone for a theft theme as well with George
:55:08. > :55:12.Osborne and David Cameron dressed up as muggers. The Sun have gone
:55:12. > :55:16.for humiliation, with the chancellor depicted as Wallace, a
:55:16. > :55:20.reference to the tax break he introduced for animation companies.
:55:20. > :55:25.The prize for best gimmicks goes to the Times. Not only have they got a
:55:25. > :55:29.50 pence with George Osborne and the taxes chainsaw massacre on it,
:55:29. > :55:35.but inside they have a monopoly themed explainer of the Budget and
:55:35. > :55:45.best of all, how the characters of Downton Abbey will be affected by
:55:45. > :55:53.
:55:53. > :55:59.the Chancellor's decisions. We are joined by John John Pienaar.
:55:59. > :56:04.I can't remember in recent times a worse set of front pages for any
:56:04. > :56:08.chancellor than this morning? nor can I. You look at the Daily
:56:08. > :56:11.Telegraph, the Conservative-leaning Daily Telegraph by describes it as
:56:11. > :56:17.a Budget that Gordon Brown would have been proud of and no part that
:56:17. > :56:23.is meant as a compliment, they mean shifty, deceitful, full of tricks.
:56:23. > :56:30.My sense of this is they have spun themselves into a tangle. So much
:56:30. > :56:33.of the bUlght was leaked. A lot -- Budget was leaked. A lot came out.
:56:33. > :56:39.There was industrial leaking of the Budget. The bit they didn't leak
:56:39. > :56:49.was the bit about pensioners which amplified coverage of that story
:56:49. > :56:52.
:56:52. > :56:58.and it was a big big enough story. There are Deeper currants at work.
:56:58. > :57:03.A lot of the attack from what you might call the Tory press or I
:57:03. > :57:08.think more accurately the Tory inclined press, has hostility to
:57:08. > :57:11.Cameron as well. The Telegraph, The Mail, they are not cheerleaders for
:57:11. > :57:14.Mr Cameron, they like an opportunity to give him a kicking
:57:14. > :57:19.as they have done this morning? There is a certain amount of that.
:57:19. > :57:22.The Sun as well? Include The Sun. There is a feeling on the righter
:57:22. > :57:26.end of Fleet Street that maybe the Government could be a bit more
:57:26. > :57:30.Euro-sceptic than it has been, that it could be more truly Conservative
:57:30. > :57:36.and we call them them Conservative supporting papers, they like to
:57:36. > :57:40.make them jump every now and again, especially this far out from a
:57:40. > :57:45.general election. But just now, you get an
:57:45. > :57:53.opportunity and a chance to... show you are independent.
:57:53. > :57:56.Just before we go, Chris Leslie, he is in front of Parliament almost as
:57:56. > :58:01.we speak, complaining about the leaks. He has been complaining.
:58:01. > :58:06.What do we make of that? He is complaining about the leaking of
:58:06. > :58:10.the Budget. I was watching this and remember the scene in Casablanca
:58:10. > :58:16.where the police chief says he is shocked, shocked to see there is
:58:16. > :58:17.gambling going on in here! It has always happened. It happened under
:58:17. > :58:22.Gordon and Tony and long before that.
:58:22. > :58:27.Tony Blair would have liked a few more leaks under Gordon Brown.
:58:27. > :58:33.wasn't told anything! "I'm Not telling you anything."
:58:33. > :58:39.John Pienaar, you too colonel. Thank you to our guests. I am back
:58:39. > :58:47.tonight with Michael Portillo and Alastair Campbell and Channel 4's
:58:48. > :58:52.Sarah Smith and David Gorman. Anyway we are on BBC One at 11.35pm.