:00:44. > :00:47.Good afternoon. Welcome to the Daily Politics. Are plans to solve
:00:47. > :00:50.the crisis facing elderly care being blocked by the Treasury?
:00:50. > :00:53.That's the view of the former Care Minister who lost his job in the
:00:53. > :00:56.reshuffle. We'll be talking to the man who replaced him. Party
:00:56. > :01:03.conference season is in full swing. Odds on questions of leadership
:01:03. > :01:13.could dominate. Luckily, we've got a bookie on hand. Nick Clegg's song
:01:13. > :01:14.
:01:14. > :01:24.to get to number one - we've got all the latest on Westminster's
:01:24. > :01:24.
:01:25. > :01:27.runners and riders. What are the odds on UKIP and the Tories doing a
:01:27. > :01:30.deal ahead of the next election? UKIP's leader has been addressing
:01:30. > :01:33.his party conference this morning. We'll be asking him just that later.
:01:33. > :01:35.And Adam's on the green with all the important questions. Believe it
:01:35. > :01:40.or not, these are the must-have political memorabilia this season.
:01:40. > :01:45.Well done, Adam. He almost kept it together there. I won't be rushing
:01:45. > :01:48.out to get a pair of those. And with us for the whole programme
:01:48. > :01:51.today are Mary Riddell of the Daily Telegraph and the radio presenter
:01:51. > :01:54.Ian Collins. Welcome to you both. Now, first today let's talk about
:01:54. > :01:57.the Chief Whip, Andrew Mitchell, who has had to apologise after
:01:57. > :02:00.making disrespectful remarks to police officers who refused to let
:02:00. > :02:03.him out of the main gate at Downing Street. He's denied a report in the
:02:03. > :02:06.Sun that he called the officers "plebs". Well, let's talk to our
:02:06. > :02:12.political correspondent Gary O'Donohue, who is at the Downing
:02:12. > :02:17.Street gates. Gary, hello. Hello. Downing Street,
:02:17. > :02:22.what have they said? They have said that there wasn't any swearing or
:02:22. > :02:26.shouting by Andrew Mitchell. The allegation is that on Wednesday
:02:26. > :02:30.evening on his bike, Andrew Mitchell drove up to the main gate
:02:30. > :02:33.behind me, and he said normally the policeman let him through there.
:02:33. > :02:37.Instead on this evening they insisted he come through the side
:02:37. > :02:41.gate, not a million miles away, next to it. There was no argument
:02:41. > :02:47.according to Downing Street, no shouting, but there were
:02:47. > :02:51.allegations he used a number of expletives, probably Anglo-Saxon in
:02:51. > :02:56.their character, that he called officers plebs. However, it was
:02:56. > :03:01.sufficiently bad there was a face- to-face with the Prime Minister,
:03:01. > :03:06.and he's due to apologise to the officers and a sergeant, an officer
:03:06. > :03:10.on duty that day. That is due to happen. The wider issue is that
:03:10. > :03:16.this is embarrassing at any stage of the game, really, having a
:03:16. > :03:22.slanging match in the street in you're a Cabinet member, but if the
:03:22. > :03:27.focus is on the role of the police and what they do, the events in
:03:27. > :03:31.Manchester, then it starts to become damning. A member of the
:03:31. > :03:34.back benchs has waded in and described it as unacceptable and
:03:34. > :03:41.saying he'll tell Mr Mitchell to his face when he sees him. There is
:03:41. > :03:43.a lot of anger about this. surprising. Norman Tebbit said it
:03:44. > :03:48.was extraordinarily stupid and suggests he can't take the pressure
:03:48. > :03:52.of his new job. Is he in trouble over this in terms of his new
:03:53. > :03:58.position I don't detect that at the moment. These things have a life of
:03:58. > :04:05.their own, if you know. It will depend on whether or not an apology
:04:05. > :04:08.draws the sting from this and how complete the apology is. I notice
:04:09. > :04:12.today the Police Federation say it's a bit halfhearted, the apology
:04:12. > :04:15.that has been around already. There was a dispute about the facts of
:04:15. > :04:21.what was said, what wasn't actually said on the day itself, so those
:04:21. > :04:25.things are still to be cleared up, and - but I don't detect at this
:04:25. > :04:29.stage that he's really in any big trouble with his job. Of course,
:04:29. > :04:33.he's the Chief Whip, so he has a sort of perfect reason for fading
:04:33. > :04:37.into the background. He shouldn't really be a very public figure. You
:04:37. > :04:41.might think perhaps - I don't know - in the next few days, maybe he'll
:04:41. > :04:44.get the bus to work. Yes. I wonder if he'll listen to your advice.
:04:44. > :04:48.Do you think this is going to stick? I think it will stick
:04:48. > :04:50.because really it sort of says everything about what people think
:04:50. > :04:54.they think about the Conservative Party. I think it was very
:04:54. > :05:00.interesting that the one word he really took exception to was the
:05:00. > :05:04.word pleb. I mean, he said he didn't recognise the form of words,
:05:05. > :05:10.but if you read the alleged quotes they were fairly juicy, as Gary
:05:10. > :05:19.suggests. It's the word "pleb" which implies the sort of patrician
:05:19. > :05:23.Tory on his bicycled wanting the gates open for him, quite happy to
:05:23. > :05:28.hair angthe police force in the worst week to have done so.
:05:28. > :05:32.denies he said that word, but the fact that he had to deny that bit
:05:32. > :05:39.of it and it was disputed, what he did, what does it do in terms of
:05:39. > :05:44.image for David Cameron? He is always fighting accusations he and
:05:44. > :05:50.his accolades are toffs. And doing a lousy job of fighting. Here we
:05:50. > :05:53.have a posh boy, elite in the inner circle of the Cabinet - all of
:05:53. > :05:57.those feed directly into this problem that David Cameron has.
:05:57. > :06:03.This guy is a senior member of the inner circle, and here he is having
:06:03. > :06:07.stand-up row in public with the constabulary which happens to be a
:06:07. > :06:11.day after some pretty serious news about the police in Manchester, and
:06:11. > :06:16.here's a senior Cabinet member officer arguing - we know this word
:06:16. > :06:19.pleb is still up for debate but until Andrew Mitchell actually says
:06:19. > :06:26.this is what was said... Do you think he needs to come in front of
:06:26. > :06:29.the cameras? Absolutely, and I think this... Gary mentioned the
:06:30. > :06:34.police and how high profile they are bearing in mind incidents that
:06:34. > :06:38.have happened in Manchester. You may or may not remember the Mayor
:06:38. > :06:42.of London saying actually anyone swearing at the police should be
:06:42. > :06:46.arrested. Let's listen to his clip. In the same spirit of zero
:06:47. > :06:51.tolerance I reckon we need to get back to where we were before a law
:06:51. > :06:55.of 1988 and to make it clear that if people swear at the police, then
:06:55. > :07:00.they must expect to be arrested - not just -
:07:00. > :07:05.APPLAUSE Not just because it's wrong to
:07:05. > :07:08.expect it, in my view, to expect officers to endure profanities, but
:07:08. > :07:15.I happen to think it is, but it's about the experience of the
:07:15. > :07:19.culprits. If people feel that there are no comebacks and no boundaries
:07:19. > :07:22.and no retribution for the small stuff, then I'm afraid they'll go
:07:22. > :07:27.on to commit worse crimes. Mary Riddell, that'll come back to haunt
:07:28. > :07:31.them. It will come back to haunt them. Yes, again, more needling by
:07:31. > :07:35.Boris, albeit inadvertent in this case, but it is true, isn't it? In
:07:35. > :07:39.this country we have policing by consent. There has been a debate
:07:39. > :07:44.this week whether police should be around armed, so the deal is that
:07:44. > :07:48.the police obviously aren't armed - that they behave disrespectfully
:07:48. > :07:52.towards the public and vice versa. I think for a really senior member
:07:52. > :07:56.of Government to thwart that, to cross that fairly narrow and
:07:56. > :08:00.delicate line is a really sort of serious thing because as Boris is
:08:00. > :08:05.kind of suggesting or implying, if you've got some football hooligan
:08:05. > :08:10.who had had a couple of pints of lager and was rude to a policeman
:08:10. > :08:16.on the way - they would be just marched off to the cells before you
:08:16. > :08:21.could - before Norman Tebbit could say "on your bike", so the fact
:08:21. > :08:24.that all he's supposedly got to do is apologise... It's irrelevant
:08:24. > :08:28.he's a Tory. I have lost count of how many arguments I had over
:08:28. > :08:33.things like the riots when people were accused of saying all manner
:08:33. > :08:38.of terrible thinks to the police. That seemed fine from the left-wing
:08:39. > :08:46.perspective but because he's a Tory and on Twitter he was - people were
:08:46. > :08:51.using words like "posh boys", "Snobby Tories", "Typical Tories."
:08:51. > :08:57.What about the entrance? I have been in and out all the time.
:08:57. > :09:01.kind of character wants gates open to ride a push-bike out? It's all a
:09:01. > :09:08.matter of prestige because there is no detail involved. You just get
:09:08. > :09:10.off and push your bike. That's all he had to do. Maybe he won't be
:09:10. > :09:13.standing for an elected Police Commissioner.
:09:13. > :09:16.In just over a decade the number of people over the age of 85 in
:09:16. > :09:20.England is expected to double, and as the population ages, there's an
:09:20. > :09:23.urgent need to find more money to help pay for our care in old age.
:09:23. > :09:26.It's one of the most pressing long- term decisions facing the
:09:26. > :09:29.Government. But plans to solve the looming crisis are apparently being
:09:29. > :09:31."blocked by the Treasury" - that's the view of the former Care
:09:31. > :09:34.Services Minister, the Liberal Democrat MP Paul Burstow. After
:09:34. > :09:36.losing his job in the recent reshuffle, he's written a strongly
:09:36. > :09:39.worded article in today's Daily Telegraph warning the Treasury not
:09:39. > :09:42.to duck the issue. He says, "The Treasury's view is simple - kick
:09:42. > :09:46.the can down the road despite our rising elderly population." He also
:09:46. > :09:49.has a message for David Cameron and Nick Clegg, saying he fears "the
:09:49. > :09:52.Coalition could be tempted to put care financing back in the 'too
:09:52. > :09:55.difficult to do' drawer." By 2026 the number of people aged over 85
:09:55. > :09:58.in England is expected to double to around 2.4 million. The average 65-
:09:58. > :10:05.year-old today faces lifetime care costs of �35,000, but these can
:10:05. > :10:08.vary wildly. A commission led by the economist Andrew Dilnot
:10:08. > :10:14.published its findings last year. It proposed a cap on individual
:10:14. > :10:16.care costs of �35,000, after which the state should pay. Ministers are
:10:16. > :10:21.considering a watered-down version which would impose a "voluntary
:10:21. > :10:25.cap" which would only protect those who paid a fee to opt in. But Paul
:10:25. > :10:28.Burstow says this idea is "dangerous".
:10:28. > :10:32.Well, earlier I spoke to Norman Lamb. He succeeded Paul Burstow as
:10:32. > :10:38.Care Minister and is also a Lib Dem MP. I asked him if he agreed that
:10:38. > :10:44.the plans to reform care funding were being blocked by the Treasury.
:10:44. > :10:47.Well, look, I'm a fortnight into the job, and so I can't give an
:10:47. > :10:53.assessment of the full position, but that's not the impression I get,
:10:53. > :10:57.and certainly as a new Care Minister, I am determined that we
:10:58. > :11:02.see this through. This is one of the areas of public policy which is
:11:02. > :11:05.long overdue for reform, and it's been sort of pushed into the long
:11:05. > :11:09.grass for far too long now, and you may remember before the last
:11:09. > :11:13.general election, I tried to get cross-party talks going to get a
:11:13. > :11:17.solution here, and I argued the case for a commission, so we've
:11:17. > :11:20.made a lot of progress. I think it's really good news that the
:11:20. > :11:24.Government has said that it supports in principle the idea of
:11:24. > :11:29.the cap. I was encouraged by what David Cameron said over the summer,
:11:29. > :11:33.so I think the next stage is to seek agreement on how we can fund
:11:33. > :11:36.it. I'm sorry to put this to you, but what progress has been made? I
:11:36. > :11:40.mean, there's no progress at all. Nothing has been agreed since
:11:40. > :11:43.Andrew Dilnot published his report and recommendations, and you do
:11:43. > :11:47.agree with Paul Burstow. You say it has been kicked into the long grass.
:11:47. > :11:51.He agrees with that. He says it's the fault of the Treasury. Do you?
:11:51. > :11:55.When you say no progress has been made, I just disagree with that.
:11:56. > :12:00.Tell me what's been agreeed? No cap has been agreed no. Money has been
:12:00. > :12:04.found to fund... But the model of care which is the critical starting
:12:04. > :12:08.point, has now been accepted in principle. That's an incredibly
:12:08. > :12:12.important starting point. Now we have to work out how it's funded.
:12:12. > :12:15.take your point that you've agreed in principle to a cap to give
:12:15. > :12:18.people some assurance about how their long-term care is paid for.
:12:18. > :12:23.Where should that cap be? In there is no agreement on that, you'll
:12:23. > :12:28.never have progress. Well, look, I haven't got a figure that I can
:12:28. > :12:31.give you today that is my sort of settled view because, of course,
:12:31. > :12:38.whenever you put the cap has implications for the cost of the
:12:38. > :12:42.whole programme, but it has to be at a level that gives people the
:12:42. > :12:46.reassurance that the assets that they've sort of - often worked for
:12:46. > :12:51.throughout their lives remain secure. If it's too high, it won't
:12:52. > :12:55.give that reassurance, and it won't also give an incentive to the
:12:55. > :12:59.inshurns industry to provide products to fill that gap. But what
:12:59. > :13:03.is affordable? Be honest with viewers. Is it true that there is
:13:03. > :13:07.no money to spend on this at the moment. That's why it hasn't been
:13:07. > :13:10.agreed. The former Health Secretary Andrew Lansley said in the current
:13:10. > :13:15.spending environment, the Government will have to consider
:13:15. > :13:21.the Andrew Dilnot recommendations carefully against other restraints
:13:21. > :13:26.and calls for resources. There is no money for this, is will? I take
:13:26. > :13:30.the view this is a priority. It's an unreformed system. There needs
:13:30. > :13:34.to be more than just Dilnot. The Government's bill we plan to take
:13:34. > :13:38.through next year will reform the whole social care system in a very
:13:38. > :13:43.positive way giving new rights to carers and those who are cared for,
:13:43. > :13:47.but the fact is that you have to reach judgments about when it is
:13:47. > :13:51.introduced, the level of the cap and, critically, how it's paid for.
:13:51. > :13:55.You can pay for it by cutting other things, or you can pay for it...
:13:55. > :14:01.you think it should be paid for by cutting other things if it's that
:14:01. > :14:04.much of a priority? In my view, it has to be paid for in a way that is
:14:04. > :14:10.progressive, that is based on your ability to pay. You have to try and
:14:10. > :14:13.be fair both in terms of people's capacity to pay but also in terms
:14:13. > :14:20.of inter-generational fairness. Could the working-age population
:14:20. > :14:24.actually stomach anymore burden in terms of tax, or should the burden
:14:24. > :14:27.apply in later years? These are the decisions that you have to discuss
:14:27. > :14:32.across the parties to reach agreement, and that's what I am
:14:32. > :14:36.intent on doing. One of the biggest areas of concern is dementia and
:14:36. > :14:39.how you deal with it and how you pay for it and the carers that are
:14:39. > :14:45.involved. What's your response to recent reports that big
:14:45. > :14:47.pharmaceuticals are decreasing their funding for dementia after
:14:48. > :14:52.several costly clinical trial failures? I think some of those
:14:52. > :14:55.reports may be misleading. We're planning major event next month
:14:55. > :15:01.with Government coming together with the pharmaceutical industry to
:15:01. > :15:07.look at working together, and in a sensuousing the UK's remarkable NHS
:15:07. > :15:10.system as a basis for undertaking the research that could lead to a
:15:10. > :15:16.breakthrough. The Government itself is doubling the amount of money
:15:16. > :15:21.that we're spending on research on dementia. It's part of the Prime
:15:21. > :15:28.Minister's dementia challenge. The message today for everyone is, if
:15:28. > :15:31.you know a loved one who you feel may be displaying early signs of
:15:31. > :15:37.dementia, have that difficult conversation. Talk to them and get
:15:37. > :15:40.them along to a GP, your GP, because early diagnosis can make a
:15:40. > :15:44.real difference. It can improve health and well being. Actually,
:15:44. > :15:47.also, it reduces the cost of care in the long run and avoids a crisis
:15:47. > :15:51.occurring. Norman Lamb, it's conference season, of course. That
:15:51. > :15:55.won't have passed you by. How is Nick Clegg going to deal with the
:15:55. > :16:01.leadership issue at the conference? Look, Nick is, as you might have
:16:01. > :16:05.noticed, actually, remarkably resilient. The pressure he has been
:16:05. > :16:10.under - some of the personal abuse he's faced during the last two-and-
:16:10. > :16:15.a-half years would have broken many a lesser person than Nick, but he
:16:15. > :16:18.keeps going because, actually, the bottom line is, we're doing the
:16:18. > :16:24.right thing working in the national interests, working with another
:16:24. > :16:28.party, and, you know, political stability at a time of real
:16:28. > :16:33.economic danger and turbulence is a priceless asset, and in time, I
:16:33. > :16:37.suspect that people might actually reach the view that Nick should be
:16:37. > :16:41.applauded for that. He has taken the very difficult decision to go
:16:41. > :16:47.into this coalition and to keep making it work. Still be here by
:16:47. > :16:52.2015? For that he should be recognised. Still be here by 2015?
:16:52. > :16:57.Absolutely. He has to say that. Let's go back to the initial report
:16:57. > :17:00.about care. Paul Burstow, in my experience, is not a man prone to
:17:01. > :17:03.angry outbursts. Do you believe what he says that the Treasury is
:17:03. > :17:06.blocking it? Absolutely. I think Paul Burstow is a well-regarded
:17:06. > :17:11.Minister in that job. The point he makes that the Treasury have kicked
:17:11. > :17:14.it into the long grass, that they actually won't stump up the money
:17:14. > :17:18.needed I think has been one of the best kept secrets in politics
:17:18. > :17:23.because everybody suspected that for a very, very long time. The
:17:23. > :17:28.thing is with the Dilnot proposals, which everybody - all the parties
:17:28. > :17:32.signed up to and welcomed, there is some tail-end cost involved. If you
:17:32. > :17:36.bring in a voluntary insurance scheme, and the idea of only
:17:36. > :17:40.providing help to people who have paid into that, obviously, would
:17:40. > :17:43.discriminate against the very poorest or - sorts of people. That
:17:43. > :17:47.wouldn't work. But it does mean that the state has to pick up some
:17:47. > :17:50.of the tab. And that's where the Treasury is thought to be drawing
:17:50. > :17:55.the line. As your report made really clear, this has been going
:17:55. > :18:01.on for years and years. We have had one commission and Sutherland.
:18:01. > :18:06.Everybody has looked at it. I think it's an overlooked word in politics
:18:06. > :18:16.but there is a cries was this elderly population as well as
:18:16. > :18:23.
:18:23. > :18:27.people with dementia going up. This is as big as the NHS Bill in
:18:28. > :18:32.itself. One of the reasons he said about it being quietly tucked away
:18:32. > :18:37.and no one else is talking about it is probably true. I do not think it
:18:37. > :18:42.is because the Tories do not want to help people. That is about the
:18:42. > :18:47.image they had asked the Government. It is about the enormity of the
:18:47. > :18:54.project. This will be just as big and problematic and cause just as
:18:54. > :18:59.many problems. I take you do not think it will succeed? We will not
:18:59. > :19:05.see any figures being put down on paper until the end of this
:19:05. > :19:10.Parliament. I wonder if it might nudge them... It should be in the
:19:10. > :19:16.next Spending Review. It will be interesting to see what effect this
:19:16. > :19:21.intervention has. The magnitude is similar to the NHS. You cannot
:19:21. > :19:28.afford to do it and you cannot afford not to do it. The failure of
:19:28. > :19:31.social care has huge knock-on costs to the NHS. Lots of elderly people
:19:31. > :19:37.are in hospitals because there is nowhere else for them to go. It is
:19:37. > :19:39.a huge waste of public resources and getting worse all the time.
:19:39. > :19:43.are you thinking of putting a Trixie on the Police Commissioner
:19:43. > :19:46.elections? How about a flutter on an Ed Miliband victory - on the
:19:46. > :19:50.nose - or a pony on David Cameron? What about a Yankee on the American
:19:50. > :19:53.Senator elections? As long as you don't welch on a bet on House of
:19:53. > :19:56.Lords reform or boundary changes. Perhaps you are more of an ethical
:19:56. > :19:58.individual than my producer and you don't understand any of those
:19:58. > :20:08.gambling terms. In that case, here's Susana Mendonsa explaining
:20:08. > :20:15.
:20:15. > :20:22.exactly how political betting has Look at the odds, check out the
:20:22. > :20:27.form, and choose which ones to back. Not horses. I am talking political
:20:28. > :20:35.beasts. We have been gambling our cash away it on them for centuries.
:20:35. > :20:40.People were betting on who would be the next Pope as far back as 1503.
:20:40. > :20:46.That was until Gregory the 14th banned all betting on Papal
:20:46. > :20:49.elections on pain of execution. It was the Tory leadership battle
:20:49. > :20:56.after Harold Macmillan resigned that gave us the political gambling
:20:56. > :21:01.back. And the arrival of the high street bookie. Betting shops became
:21:01. > :21:07.legal in 1961. That meant everyone could have bet. Before it was
:21:07. > :21:13.restricted to the wealthiest. we bet on all sorts. Like the arts
:21:13. > :21:18.that Eric Pickles would be spotted in a curry house during the Tory
:21:18. > :21:24.conference. -- the odds. He posted this picture on Twitter of which
:21:24. > :21:33.forced the bookies to pay up. Ken Clarke, falling asleep during the
:21:33. > :21:38.Budget, got odds of 16 to one. John Major becoming Prime Minister 93 to
:21:38. > :21:42.one. Screaming Lord Sutch backed himself to become Prime Minister at
:21:42. > :21:52.15 million to one. What about the prospects of David Cameron holding
:21:52. > :21:53.
:21:53. > :21:59.on? Five to one. What about Ed Miliband? Five to four. You could
:22:00. > :22:05.do was put a tenner on yourself to become Prime Minister. Justin
:22:05. > :22:10.Tomlinson and Chris Kelly, the MP for Dudley South, where the two
:22:10. > :22:18.gentlemen who had those bets. They are on the first rung towards
:22:18. > :22:23.becoming Prime Minister. They have until 2038 to do it. At odds of
:22:23. > :22:30.50,000 to one, that will be half a million quid a piece. What you
:22:30. > :22:35.prefer? Courses of Paul -- politicians? Horses. Horses are
:22:35. > :22:44.prettier. I picked out ciders. I pick the colours and I would not
:22:44. > :22:48.pick blue. -- pick colours. When Tony and Cherie Blair were
:22:48. > :22:54.expecting an addition to the family, someone asked us what odds it would
:22:54. > :22:57.turn out to be an alien. personal favourite was whether
:22:57. > :23:03.Boris Johnson would set fire to his hair with the Olympic torch was up
:23:03. > :23:07.the odds were 66 to one. Alex Donohue from Ladbrooks is on the
:23:07. > :23:12.Green. He has got a few odds up his sleeve ahead of the Lib Dem, Labour
:23:12. > :23:16.and Tory conferences. What are the odds on the party leaders still
:23:16. > :23:20.being in their jobs at the time of the election? The great news is
:23:20. > :23:27.that they are all odds on to keep their jobs right until the next
:23:27. > :23:33.election. Nick Clegg has the shortest odds not to have his job.
:23:33. > :23:36.He is 5 to four. Those odds have shortened recently. If their
:23:36. > :23:43.leaders do believe in them, they're all odds on to keep their jobs
:23:43. > :23:51.until the next election. What about the favourite for the next Prime
:23:51. > :23:57.Minister? It has to be Ed Miliband. Boris Johnson is 12 to one. After
:23:57. > :24:02.the Olympics every mum wanted to back him to become an MP. Boris
:24:02. > :24:09.Johnson for Prime Minister, it could cost the bookies a few quid I
:24:09. > :24:14.imagine. Everyone will be watching that. If we look Boris Johnson
:24:14. > :24:21.angling for a comeback, is it likely? We think it could be quite
:24:21. > :24:31.likely. We are offering odds of two to one that he will be an MP in any
:24:31. > :24:32.
:24:32. > :24:38.walk anywhere in the country before an election. -- any water. Quite
:24:38. > :24:44.short odds about Boris turning to politics, possibly at the highest
:24:44. > :24:49.level. Very tempting for a flutter. I can see the Miliband brothers.
:24:49. > :24:56.Perhaps they are patching up their differences. If you think they're
:24:56. > :25:05.going to have on stage at conference, 20 to one. We have seen
:25:05. > :25:10.it before. Will we see it again? 20 to one says they will. What about a
:25:10. > :25:17.comeback from Tony Blair or Gordon Brown? Of the two of them, if
:25:17. > :25:23.either of them, it is Tony Blair. Gordon Brown, you might as well
:25:23. > :25:32.name your price. 200 to one foot stuck I would probably want to
:25:32. > :25:39.stick another zero on that before I had a bet. -- one. What do that the
:25:39. > :25:47.odds on the Nick Clegg charity song Getting to number one -- what about
:25:48. > :25:54.the odds on the Nick Clegg charity song Getting to number one?
:25:54. > :25:59.promised we would vote against any rising these. It was made with the
:25:59. > :26:03.best of intentions. It is very catchy. The latest odds on that
:26:03. > :26:09.becoming number one, is that more were less likely than Nick Clegg
:26:09. > :26:15.stepping down as leader? The bigger odds are it gets to number one.
:26:15. > :26:20.Maybe they might become connected at some point. That could be the
:26:20. > :26:25.Christmas number one. I said that yesterday. I notice something
:26:25. > :26:34.mischievous on your board. What about a new job or career changed
:26:34. > :26:44.for Andrew Neil? 1000 to one for him to become Prime Minister.
:26:44. > :26:45.
:26:45. > :26:49.you very much. Rick Nye from Populus is with us now. How bloody
:26:49. > :26:53.do you think the conference will be? I do not think it will be
:26:53. > :26:58.bloody but it will be quite sombre. Nick Clegg needs to impress upon
:26:58. > :27:01.his own party that they are making a difference by being part of the
:27:02. > :27:06.coalition. He needs to be able to show they have different from the
:27:06. > :27:10.Conservatives while, at the same time, showing that the coalition,
:27:10. > :27:14.as an entity, can actually work. The worst place for him to
:27:14. > :27:19.endeavour is being different from the Conservatives but in a way that
:27:19. > :27:23.makes the coalition useless. If that is the case, why would anyone
:27:23. > :27:29.vote for the Liberal Democrats? That means a vote for the coalition
:27:29. > :27:34.government in that case. What about the Nick Clegg song? The idea he
:27:34. > :27:40.could come out to say sorry at this stage... It some people were saying
:27:40. > :27:48.he might not have his heart in continuing as Lisa B on 23rd team.
:27:48. > :27:56.I do not think it is a bad thing. - - as the leader beyond 2013. It
:27:56. > :28:00.says to his party, look, we were responsible for coming up with this
:28:00. > :28:05.idiotic, unrealistic pledge in the first place and we are jointly
:28:05. > :28:09.responsible for the consequences of that. Getting rid of me will not
:28:09. > :28:12.solve that problem. Throwing it forward, if you think about the
:28:12. > :28:17.policies they will be voting on to enter the next manifesto, they must
:28:17. > :28:21.be realistic, otherwise the same thing will happen all over again if
:28:21. > :28:26.they are in coalition with Labour or the Tories after the next
:28:26. > :28:34.election. What to think that the chances of Nick Clegg as becoming
:28:34. > :28:40.leader? -- what do you think? will be loads of leadership talk.
:28:40. > :28:45.Maybe he should come in with a song at the next Tory conference. A lot
:28:45. > :28:49.of these things in politics are about perception. That has an
:28:49. > :28:54.unfortunate habit of becoming reality very quickly. He said sorry
:28:54. > :29:00.about the fees. The Labour Party never ever said sorry. They hardly
:29:00. > :29:06.said a word about that. As an anti- Clegg bandwagon, it suits. He will
:29:06. > :29:12.probably face, as we get into 2013/2014, some serious contention
:29:12. > :29:18.when it comes down to leadership. We have been trying to tread the
:29:18. > :29:22.fine line between differentiating - - differentiating between the
:29:22. > :29:26.Tories and being part of the coalition. Will he achieve that?
:29:26. > :29:31.will be very difficult for him. There is momentum the other way
:29:31. > :29:39.with Vince Cable and the social Democrat wing of the party moving
:29:39. > :29:43.maul over to the left. Somehow, it is absolutely right. -- more over.
:29:43. > :29:48.The Lib Dems need their unique selling point. They are not going
:29:48. > :29:53.to get the old voters they lost to Labour back. Their bluff has been
:29:53. > :30:02.called in all sorts of ways. That will be the trick for this
:30:02. > :30:05.conference. They are in a no-man's land. They have got huge chunks of
:30:05. > :30:11.their manifesto into government. It is almost as if none of that has
:30:12. > :30:16.happened. It is about one policy. It is essentially about the one
:30:16. > :30:21.policy. Picking up on what Mary said about coalition and Vince
:30:21. > :30:25.Cable and the idea of him being leader and some sort of combination
:30:25. > :30:29.with the Labour, interesting that Harriet Harman has not that on the
:30:29. > :30:34.head. Our Labour feeling more confident in winning an outright
:30:34. > :30:37.majority? It is difficult for the Labour Party to forgive parts of
:30:37. > :30:42.the Liberal Democrat Party and compete for the votes of their
:30:42. > :30:46.disaffected voters at the same time. Labour has to be tough. It is in a
:30:46. > :30:49.position where it has to be tough. The Liberal Democrats have a
:30:49. > :30:53.problem where, the people who do not mind the fact they went into
:30:53. > :30:56.coalition with the Conservatives, are not actually that keen on
:30:56. > :31:00.Liberal Democrat policies. The people who are attracted by Liberal
:31:00. > :31:04.Democrat policies will never forgive them by having gone into
:31:04. > :31:09.coalition with the Conservatives. The tuition fees figures are a
:31:09. > :31:13.metaphor as much as a policy issue. What about Ed Miliband? You say
:31:13. > :31:17.Labour can afford to feel confident at the moment but Ed Miliband is
:31:17. > :31:21.still less popular than David Cameron. At the moment it is going
:31:21. > :31:26.fine for Labour. There was a poll this week which put them 15 points
:31:26. > :31:30.ahead. That is the biggest gap this Parliament. They do not Theale, I
:31:30. > :31:36.think, as though the up doing anything. They are seeing things
:31:36. > :31:43.being done to the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. -- they are
:31:43. > :31:46.doing anything. It is about whether they use this conference to kick on.
:31:46. > :31:53.Begin to flesh out what a Labour government might look like and what
:31:53. > :32:03.Ed Miliband might do. Ed Miliband has made no policy announcements
:32:03. > :32:07.
:32:07. > :32:12.I think it will be much more addressing the issue you raise, the
:32:12. > :32:16.image problem really and selling Ed Miliband a bit more if they can to
:32:16. > :32:20.the electorate, and there is no doubt he's improved in his public
:32:20. > :32:24.performances, but clearly, there's some ground to make up there. By
:32:24. > :32:28.the way, just going back to the Nick Clegg thing, I think this song
:32:28. > :32:30.will do misdemeanor a lot of good because it puts him into this
:32:30. > :32:35.wonderful area where he doesn't look like a politician anymore. He
:32:35. > :32:41.looks a bit off the wall. Is that because you're the leader of a
:32:41. > :32:46.political party... I think it's a turning point for Nick Clegg.
:32:46. > :32:51.get back to you on that. leadership of all the parties I
:32:51. > :32:55.suppose you could say won't be an issue for Ed Miliband. No, he's
:32:55. > :32:59.safe. If public I hadly he doesn't poll as good as David Cameron, what
:32:59. > :33:02.about for David Cameron, there is no real threat, is there, to his
:33:02. > :33:05.leadership? I don't think so I think people will make a lot about
:33:05. > :33:09.Boris Johnson. He'll have his slot at the party conference because
:33:09. > :33:12.there won't be much else to talk about. The media will want to talk
:33:12. > :33:16.lots about Boris Johnson, but yes, the mechanics don't work anyway in
:33:16. > :33:22.terms of how he gets back into Parliament and the circumstances
:33:22. > :33:25.under which he would stand. Second of all, I just don't know the Boris
:33:25. > :33:28.phenomenon is as potent outside of London or the media that tends to
:33:28. > :33:34.be based outside of London as people think it is. What sort of
:33:34. > :33:36.feel is it going to be then at the Conservative Party Conference?
:33:36. > :33:40.think at the Conservative Party Conference they're looking for
:33:40. > :33:43.David Cameron do lay out a vision, if you like. In a world where you
:33:43. > :33:48.can't tell people how long the journey is going to take in terms
:33:48. > :33:52.of getting to the other side of a recession and into recovery, what
:33:52. > :33:57.you can do is tell them what the destination will be like when they
:33:57. > :34:01.get there, and I think David Cameron has never really quite been
:34:01. > :34:05.able to draw that out and sell that to people. He needs to crystallise
:34:06. > :34:10.that but I think also going back to that kind of elitist image problem,
:34:10. > :34:13.they have a huge issue there. Unless they begin to address - the
:34:13. > :34:17.problem with somebody like Andy Coulson - say what you like about
:34:17. > :34:20.him, but there was almost a - somebody who was grounded in terms
:34:20. > :34:24.of advising the Prime Minister. I think that's what he's lacking at
:34:24. > :34:28.the moment. The problem he's got about this elitist image - the
:34:28. > :34:35.people advising him are from the same background. Of course all of
:34:35. > :34:38.his Big Society stuff and things with a wider appeal to a wider sort
:34:38. > :34:43.of tranche of the electorate have largely gone, so I think the
:34:43. > :34:47.stopper is going to be the economy. On the economy, I mean, what is the
:34:47. > :34:51.story they are going to tell? At the moment, it's still flat lining
:34:51. > :34:55.no, growth. We don't know what the next figures are going to be.
:34:55. > :35:00.They're possibly going to dump the debt target, possibly look at the
:35:00. > :35:05.deficit target. How damaging is that to the Osborne-Cameron brand?
:35:05. > :35:08.I think it's very damaging but at the moment there is a bit of an
:35:08. > :35:10.establishment consensus behind them that the Governor of the Bank of
:35:10. > :35:16.England, as you mentioned, has paved the way to dropping that very
:35:16. > :35:20.important fiscal rule, and is kind of suggesting that if that happened,
:35:20. > :35:23.it would be because of the economy and forces outside their control
:35:23. > :35:30.rather than anything that they've done wrong, whereas, of course,
:35:30. > :35:33.Labour will say, your plan A isn't working. What are you going to do
:35:33. > :35:35.next? That's the stasis we're still at. Weeks of fun to be had in the
:35:35. > :35:43.next month or so. Thank you very much.
:35:43. > :35:44.Now, should England have its own thinks, so and they're holding
:35:44. > :35:51.their annual conference in St Albans next week. They're the
:35:51. > :35:54.English Democrats. I am joined from College Green by their leader Robin
:35:54. > :35:57.Tilbrooke. Welcome. Thank you very much. What do you hope to achieve
:35:57. > :36:01.with your conference? Obviously, we're launching our mayoral
:36:01. > :36:05.candidates for the police commissioners. We're also starting
:36:05. > :36:12.to prepare for the next County Council elections, and we're
:36:12. > :36:17.launching an initiative to start progress towards having a great
:36:17. > :36:20.charter for England in readiness for the 800th anniversary of the
:36:20. > :36:27.Magna Carta. How successful do you really think you're going to be?
:36:27. > :36:32.Well, I think we are making some progress as a party. We're building
:36:32. > :36:36.up. In terms of numbers, in terms of organisation, in terms of where
:36:36. > :36:41.we're standing, in terms of - one of the all-important things about
:36:41. > :36:46.politics in this country, which is money, so we are make some progress.
:36:46. > :36:50.I'm quite upbeat about it. You're upbeat. You say on your website
:36:50. > :36:53."For too long England has been shamelessly abused, compromised and
:36:53. > :36:57.pillaged by successive Westminster administrations" - quite forceful
:36:57. > :37:02.language. Given England is a pretty prosperous part of the union, what
:37:02. > :37:05.do you mean by that? Well, if you think about it, there are parts of
:37:05. > :37:10.England which are prosperous. There are plenty of parts of England that
:37:10. > :37:14.are not at all prosperous, and yet we have a system where the British
:37:14. > :37:18.political establishment through the Barnett formula give more money in
:37:18. > :37:22.subsidies to rich parts of Scotland than poor parts of England, and the
:37:22. > :37:26.same would be true of other parts of the United Kingdom. England
:37:26. > :37:31.isn't currently represented at all in the political process, and so we
:37:31. > :37:35.often get the raw end of the deal. You're seeing that with NHS cuts,
:37:35. > :37:40.for example. You have to admit that that characterisation, even if some
:37:40. > :37:44.people are sympathetic to it, given that the 101 candidates that you
:37:44. > :37:48.put up for election in the May local election, not a single one
:37:48. > :37:52.was elected, so they just don't see it the way you do. I think to be
:37:52. > :37:57.fair, it's early days for our party. We have only been going since 2002.
:37:57. > :38:01.We're - the fact that we were able to put up so many candidates is
:38:01. > :38:05.quite an achievement for a party of our age. Of course, you have to
:38:05. > :38:09.bear in mind that the establishment parties spent literally tens of
:38:09. > :38:13.millions on that election, whereas our budget was tiny. I mean, you
:38:13. > :38:18.know, outline how you would see an English Parliament working in
:38:18. > :38:23.practise. Well, I think the issue is that we need not only an English
:38:23. > :38:29.Parliament in terms of the representation function but we also
:38:29. > :38:32.need an English First Minister in Government in order to put us on a
:38:32. > :38:38.footing of any parity with England and Wales and Northern Ireland. We
:38:38. > :38:42.would also need an English Secretary of State within the
:38:42. > :38:45.Whitehall system. Otherwise, England is simply not going to be
:38:45. > :38:49.properly represented in the whole process of Government. That means
:38:49. > :38:52.we're simply not going to get the kind of resources spent on our
:38:52. > :38:56.interests that are spent on the other nations of the United Kingdom.
:38:56. > :38:59.Yes, and a lot of people will agree with you on that, and they'll
:38:59. > :39:03.sympathise, so is it that your message isn't getting across? Why
:39:03. > :39:06.isn't it getting across? Is it because it's obscured by some of
:39:06. > :39:11.the more extreme rhetoric that surrounds the party? No, I don't
:39:11. > :39:14.think, so and I don't think we are particularly extreme about what we
:39:14. > :39:20.say, but the fact of the matter is opinion polls are showing that
:39:20. > :39:23.people are getting our message. What we haven't yet achieved is
:39:23. > :39:29.that the - the brand awareness of our party is not at the level that
:39:29. > :39:33.we need it to be in order to start winning major elections. All right.
:39:33. > :39:36.Thank you very much. Thank you very much. Now, MPs have
:39:36. > :39:40.been on a break - another one - from Parliament since Tuesday to
:39:40. > :39:43.give them a chance to iron their shirts, polish their shoes and
:39:43. > :39:47.finish their speeches ahead of their party conference, but that
:39:47. > :39:52.doesn't mean it has been a quiet week at Westminster. No. Here is
:39:52. > :39:59.David Thompson with the week in 60 seconds.
:39:59. > :40:02.It was back to the future time this week - GCSEs out, old-style O-
:40:03. > :40:06.levels in as Education Secretary Michael Gove shook up exams for 14
:40:06. > :40:10.to 16-year-olds. We believe it is time to raise aspirations and
:40:10. > :40:15.restore rigour to our examinations. Labour MP Paul Flynn got thrown out
:40:15. > :40:20.of the Commons for using the L word that rhymes with "pants on fire." ".
:40:20. > :40:24.But I have to insist on retaining my accusation of lying. Not in
:40:24. > :40:28.their backyards. On Thursday, two London councils went all NIMBY on
:40:28. > :40:31.the Government scheme to let people extend their homes without planning
:40:31. > :40:34.permission and Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg proved sorry isn't the
:40:34. > :40:38.hardest work. We shouldn't have made a promise we weren't
:40:38. > :40:47.absolutely sure we could deliver. Only to find his apology over
:40:47. > :40:48.broken tuition fees promises given the auto tune treatment by internet
:40:48. > :40:54.pranksters. # I'm sorry
:40:54. > :40:59.# I'm so, so, sorry # There is no easy way to say I'm
:40:59. > :41:02.sorry # Do you get the feeling the Daily
:41:02. > :41:08.Politics likes that tune from Nick Clegg? Must be the third time we
:41:08. > :41:13.have played it at least. Let's look back at the week. Mary Riddell,
:41:13. > :41:16.GCSE s on their way out - back to the future with E-BACCs - do you
:41:16. > :41:21.think it will happen? I have a feeling it might, actually. I can't
:41:21. > :41:25.see that - obviously, it doesn't even start - the first wave of
:41:25. > :41:30.implementation - until 2015, but if there is a way - if head teachers
:41:30. > :41:33.like it, if parents like it and so on, then I think if a Labour
:41:33. > :41:43.Government did get in next time they'd probably have trouble
:41:43. > :41:44.
:41:44. > :41:49.reversing it. You do think that? think there is a sort of mood
:41:49. > :41:54.that's going Michael Gove's way. I think there is a kind of view of
:41:54. > :41:58.academies and even free schools that isn't the same as it was at
:41:58. > :42:02.all last time... Andrew Adonis always said Labour should claim
:42:02. > :42:08.that as their policy. In fairness, it was. It was he and Tony Blair
:42:08. > :42:13.who brought it in. For this E-BACCs - just looking at the GCSE it seems
:42:13. > :42:17.to me is wrong. If you're doing a big reform, make it a root and
:42:17. > :42:20.branch one. The baccalaureate in France would go all the way through
:42:21. > :42:25.to the A-level stage and so on. Also, I think there is a problem
:42:25. > :42:30.with the kids who aren't passing five GCSEs at the moment. What's
:42:30. > :42:34.going to happen to them? What about the delay? Looking at it from a
:42:34. > :42:38.practical point of view, if it's not going to be brought in until
:42:38. > :42:41.2015 and Michael Gove has made it very clear he thinks GCSEs are
:42:41. > :42:45.discredited, why not bring it in straight away? It's one of the
:42:45. > :42:48.great mysteries of Government, isn't it? If they want to put up
:42:48. > :42:52.the price of petrol that happens the next day. They come in with a
:42:52. > :42:56.policy that makes a bit of sense, it comes in half a decade away. As
:42:56. > :42:59.Mary said, I think Labour and the Tories are actually closer than
:42:59. > :43:05.some would quite like to admit frankly on this. Also, if you said
:43:05. > :43:09.to most member of the public, "Do you want to make exams more
:43:09. > :43:12.rigorous with more integrity" - I think most people will endorse that
:43:12. > :43:17.there will be some people who will think it's harking back to the '50s,
:43:17. > :43:21.but I think secretly if you could educate our kids in a better, more
:43:21. > :43:27.thorough way, who is going to argue? What about planning? It was
:43:27. > :43:31.an interesting story this week about having had a huge hurrah over
:43:31. > :43:35.conservatories so people don't have to get permission, and Richmond has
:43:35. > :43:38.said no. It was something out of The Thick of It, really. Here we
:43:38. > :43:43.are in a coalition Government that thought they'd come out with
:43:43. > :43:47.something that looked to be generous that - I don't know if it
:43:47. > :43:51.was ever going to kick start the economy, but looked to be knocking
:43:51. > :43:56.on the right doors, Richmond have come along and said not in our
:43:56. > :44:01.backyard. And now there is two of them. It seemed to be such a hand-
:44:01. > :44:07.fisted thing for Tories to do. Of course, the people who are
:44:07. > :44:12.protesting are the people that - not in the nice, leafy suburbs who
:44:12. > :44:15.don't want a monstrosity going up in next door's garden. The
:44:15. > :44:20.Government aren't very Conservative when it comes to conserving things
:44:20. > :44:23.in the green belt and bits of England... I don't - I don't know
:44:23. > :44:28.if it's a U-turn, but it's again one of those policies that comes
:44:28. > :44:31.down to the presentation. I think Bob in Arbroath who might live on
:44:31. > :44:37.the 54th floor in a tower block won't be worried about whether or
:44:37. > :44:43.not they're going to put an extension... Mary said it's
:44:43. > :44:53.Conservative seats... Conservatives are going to worry if
:44:53. > :44:55.
:44:55. > :44:59.there is a free fall. It's going to make such a tiny difference.S.
:45:00. > :45:04.the small stuff. Now they face double embarrassment of people not
:45:04. > :45:07.wanting to do it. They're knocked out, I think, if
:45:07. > :45:10.Richmond and this other one are doing so, then, yeah, it doesn't
:45:10. > :45:16.bode very well. We'll watch it, wait and see. Earlier this
:45:16. > :45:20.afternoon, the leader of UKIP gave the key-note speech at his party's
:45:20. > :45:30.conference in Birmingham. In a moment I'll speak to Mr Farage. But
:45:30. > :45:36.
:45:36. > :45:43.first, here he is speaking about Having spent nearly 20 years of
:45:43. > :45:46.hard work, sacrifice, and much mockery building UKIP into a
:45:46. > :45:51.political brand in this country that is now connecting with
:45:51. > :46:00.millions of ordinary men and women out there, you have my insurance I
:46:00. > :46:04.am not going to sell this party short for any political gain. -- my
:46:04. > :46:14.assurance. There is no way on earth I will do that.
:46:14. > :46:17.
:46:17. > :46:25.The only way we would consider the negotiation of any time -- kind at
:46:25. > :46:29.all, was if a promise were made to give this country a fall, free and
:46:29. > :46:34.fair recommend them - has never referendum to decide if we could be
:46:34. > :46:39.members of the European Union or not. -- a fair referendum. Welcome
:46:39. > :46:44.to the programme. You probably heard yourself a few seconds ago.
:46:44. > :46:49.You are considering it. If those conditions were met and there were
:46:49. > :46:54.that deal signed in blood to give a referendum, you would go for it.
:46:54. > :46:58.Let's be clear what is happening. The Euro-sceptics in the Tory Party
:46:58. > :47:02.are screaming at David Cameron same, Lib Dems will go off to Labour.
:47:02. > :47:07.UKIP are at 10% of the polls and you must do a deal with them. They
:47:07. > :47:15.are calling for a deal. I have said I will not do a deal that
:47:15. > :47:19.compromises the party for short- term political game. -- gain. I
:47:19. > :47:22.said we would be crazy not to considerate but we could not
:47:22. > :47:27.negotiate anything until it absolutely knew that this country
:47:27. > :47:31.was going to get the full, free and fair referendum on EU membership.
:47:31. > :47:35.What conversations are you having with members of the Tory Party
:47:35. > :47:39.along those sorts of lines? We're not having any conversations
:47:39. > :47:43.formerly with the Tory Party whatsoever. We're having lots of
:47:43. > :47:47.conversations with patriotic Euro- sceptics in the Conservative Party,
:47:47. > :47:51.at all levels, who are finding it difficult to survive under the
:47:51. > :47:56.leadership of David Cameron. Many of them hope and believe that David
:47:56. > :48:03.Cameron will do the right thing and will respond to this treaty the
:48:03. > :48:07.we're told we have to have. I would say, if David Cameron does not
:48:07. > :48:13.deliver on and in/out referendum, what you will see his many more are
:48:13. > :48:21.Euro-sceptics from the Conservative Party carrier Cross and joining
:48:22. > :48:26.UKIP. -- coming across. Is it partly the problem with your party
:48:26. > :48:31.bet you are characterised as the Euro-sceptic alternative to the
:48:31. > :48:35.Conservatives? -- that you are. That is unfair. People
:48:35. > :48:40.underestimate, particularly in the Midlands and the North, how many
:48:40. > :48:44.older votes that UKIP takes. It appeals to the left and right of
:48:44. > :48:51.the political spectrum. Looking at the opinion polls, the share of the
:48:51. > :48:59.vote in terms of intention to vote, has travelled in the last two years.
:48:59. > :49:04.They are beginning to connect with people. -- has trebled. That is
:49:04. > :49:09.about how Britain should be governed as well as who. On that
:49:09. > :49:12.basis, the deal makes perfect sense. If you can extract that pledge -
:49:12. > :49:16.whatever it would look like - and not sure what you would want them
:49:16. > :49:22.to do to keep to the cast-iron guarantee. You would get some seats
:49:22. > :49:27.at Westminster. That may well happen. My focus at the moment is
:49:27. > :49:32.on the police and crime Commission elections, the Corby by-election,
:49:32. > :49:37.the council elections next year. This party is upbeat. We are
:49:37. > :49:45.pushing forwards. The most likely way this country will get the right
:49:45. > :49:54.referendum is if you pit becomes stronger. I think people -- UKIP
:49:54. > :50:01.becomes stronger. We are not given a hope bite anyone in 1999 and
:50:01. > :50:10.three of us got elected. In 2009, we came second, beating the
:50:10. > :50:16.governing Labour Party of the day. The winners in 2009 was David
:50:16. > :50:26.Cameron. He has broken his pledge. We can all see that the European
:50:26. > :50:31.Union is turning into a state. I think we have every chance. What
:50:31. > :50:38.percentage of the vote are you aiming for? That is the key. What
:50:38. > :50:45.percentage IU aiming for in 2014? Up to win the Euro elections,
:50:45. > :50:54.probably 27% would win. -- to win. That is you hope. What are you
:50:54. > :50:58.going to say? This is not some pipe dream. We have been proved to be
:50:58. > :51:04.right on this European election. Write about the eurozone. Right at
:51:04. > :51:10.the cost of British Industry. We have been right. People know that.
:51:10. > :51:15.What about the logo? You might be in favour of dumping the �logo?
:51:15. > :51:20.That has been fantastic for our party. It showed people what we
:51:20. > :51:26.stood for and has served as incredibly well. Lots of voters
:51:26. > :51:31.under the age of 40 did not know there was a threat to the pound.
:51:31. > :51:36.Perhaps we should move to a forward looking symbol of. I make one
:51:36. > :51:41.promise. They are not going to do what the post of his stick with
:51:41. > :51:48.insignia and got rid of something that worked very well for rubbish.
:51:48. > :51:53.-- is stick with insignia. Her how big a threat is UKIP in terms of
:51:53. > :51:59.worrying the Conservatives? Quite a big threat. He is on a roll. You
:51:59. > :52:04.can understand why. There are an awful lot of malcontents, not any
:52:04. > :52:11.outside the Conservative Party, but within it, he would have every
:52:11. > :52:16.sympathy with that. The EU referendum is now common currency
:52:16. > :52:21.as the talking point - not only for the Conservatives - but also for
:52:21. > :52:26.the Labour Party. It might appear in both the main parties'
:52:26. > :52:31.manifestos. It is conceivable. I think Nigel Farage might do really
:52:31. > :52:36.well in the European elections. It is true that they translate their
:52:36. > :52:46.in 2009. Where I think he is mistaken is there is a deal to be
:52:46. > :52:51.
:52:51. > :52:58.cut. -- they trounced Labour. There is plenty of gumption from within
:52:58. > :53:00.his own party. It is great publicity for Nigel Farage and UKIP,
:53:01. > :53:04.talk of Conservatives running scared and the rest of it. One
:53:04. > :53:09.could argue the most likely way of getting a referendum would be
:53:09. > :53:15.through the Conservatives and not UKIP. They're a bit like a bad
:53:15. > :53:18.reality show. You think it will never come back and they do every
:53:18. > :53:22.election. One of the last polls showed that UKIP were doing better
:53:22. > :53:26.than the Lib Dems. They are a dividing party when it comes to
:53:26. > :53:30.domestic politics. They have never had a Member of Parliament in
:53:30. > :53:33.Westminster. I do not think they ever will. They will dilute the
:53:34. > :53:39.Conservatives. They're looking for an absolute agreement from David
:53:39. > :53:44.Cameron to say we're having a referendum. There is more chance
:53:44. > :53:52.of... There is more chance of David Cameron getting in at the Met -- at
:53:52. > :53:58.the next election. As we get closer to 2015, there is a real risk of
:53:58. > :54:01.the Conservatives, if the Liberal Democrats have not built any more
:54:01. > :54:06.support and UKIP is into double figures, they need to look at the
:54:06. > :54:16.numbers and pink map what a a going to do at the next election if we
:54:16. > :54:20.
:54:20. > :54:24.need to have a coalition? -- and think, what are we going to do?
:54:24. > :54:28.lot of people in the Conservative Party have been so uneasy about
:54:28. > :54:33.coalitions. How you hold the coalition together on one hand and,
:54:33. > :54:39.on the other hand, make yourself a coherent and electable Conservative
:54:39. > :54:44.government of future, is a very difficult trick. Let's ask the big
:54:44. > :54:51.question of the day. Up all politicians pants? Over to you,
:54:51. > :54:55.Adam. A what you get the political man who has everything? How about
:54:55. > :55:01.these political pants. They'll Y- fronts with politicians on them.
:55:01. > :55:07.You have Ann Widdecombe, captain and a ring, Nick Clegg, the Iron
:55:07. > :55:14.Lady and Boris Johnson, who is apparently the biggest seller. The
:55:14. > :55:20.people who make those save their website has crashed 14 times
:55:20. > :55:26.because so many people have been ordering them. This is Paul Hayes.
:55:26. > :55:31.If you have stashed them in your attic, will you get any cash?
:55:31. > :55:37.could be a good investment for the future. Boris Johnson might be the
:55:37. > :55:43.market leader now. The ones that people do not buy now will be the
:55:43. > :55:52.collectible as of the future. To get them signed will make them more
:55:52. > :55:57.collectible. -- collectibles. A lot of political memorabilia of,
:55:57. > :56:05.President Gorbachev and the Cold War. Beria's President Brezhnev.
:56:05. > :56:12.That is worth about �60. -- there is President Brezhnev. This is the
:56:12. > :56:18.2008 election of President Obama. This one is already very
:56:18. > :56:26.collectible. I have seen things from the moon landings. Deveney
:56:26. > :56:31.something to collect. -- definitely. A bottle of Gordon Brown beer. I
:56:31. > :56:38.remember this at the Tory Party conference in 2009. A It is amazing
:56:38. > :56:44.that it has not been drunk. -- it is amazing. People love to collect
:56:44. > :56:52.beer mats and bottles and all that kind of thing. It is a great
:56:52. > :56:58.collector book of the future. at this! A Labour Party diary.
:56:58. > :57:01.is the coalition government with Winston Churchill. You have got
:57:01. > :57:07.Lord Bevin and Clement Attlee in there. The nice thing about this
:57:07. > :57:13.one is it is amused and in great condition. It is a collector's item
:57:13. > :57:17.of the very important time. It is a bit empty. Wouldn't it be
:57:17. > :57:25.marvellous to say, we went to the Houses of Parliament today and
:57:25. > :57:30.talked about things? These up campaign badges. They date from
:57:30. > :57:37.Nixon and President Al Gore. I remember that period - the 1990s.
:57:37. > :57:43.People were a bit happier and had more cash. They cost about a tenner
:57:43. > :57:47.each. Do you want to buy some? have some Obama ones from the
:57:47. > :57:52.election. They are designed to be thrown away. They do not survive in
:57:52. > :57:58.large numbers and are very collectible. We have saved the best
:57:58. > :58:04.till last. That is prices, especially if it is full of tea. If
:58:04. > :58:09.you get all the team to sign it, I can take it away. That is way above
:58:09. > :58:14.my pay grade, decided if we're allowed to do that. How big is the
:58:14. > :58:20.market for political memorabilia? The 19th century seems to be where
:58:20. > :58:28.it is with Disraeli and Gladstone in this country. By the rarer items
:58:29. > :58:34.- items at a design to be thrown away. -- items that are designed.
:58:34. > :58:39.am off to Peckham market to see how much I can flog this for. Best of
:58:39. > :58:43.luck. I do not think it will buy you lunch. Thanks to our guests.
:58:43. > :58:49.You'll have to think about who you will like on your political pants.
:58:49. > :58:54.The 1 o'clock News is starting over on BBC One. Andrew will be back