:00:39. > :00:44.Afternoon folks. Welcome to the Daily Politics. It's show time in
:00:44. > :00:48.Brussels. Can David Cameron win a freeze in the European budget which
:00:48. > :00:54.his eurosceptic party will buy? We'll have the latest from the EU
:00:54. > :00:56.capital and debate his chances with politicians from across Europe.
:00:56. > :00:59.As the Justice Secretary unveils options for allowing prisoners the
:00:59. > :01:04.vote, has the Government gone far enough to satisfy the European
:01:04. > :01:07.Court of Human Rights. Are they even right to try?
:01:07. > :01:10.It's 70 years since this man launched a report that changed
:01:10. > :01:14.Britain for ever. But would father of the welfare state William
:01:14. > :01:20.Beveridge be spinning in his grave if he could see the state of
:01:20. > :01:30.welfare today? And ahead of Dave's big day in
:01:30. > :01:33.
:01:33. > :01:35.Europe, we uncover the real man All that in the next hour. With us
:01:35. > :01:38.for the duration, James O'Shaughnessy, former policy
:01:38. > :01:48.adviser to David Cameron, currently working on a new chain of academies
:01:48. > :01:51.
:01:51. > :01:55.with Wellington Public School. More of that later. But first, the BBC
:01:55. > :02:00.News channel have reported that Tony Hall has been appointed the
:02:00. > :02:05.new director general of the BBC. I was always in favour of Tony Hall,
:02:05. > :02:11.of course, and supported him from the start, even when he wasn't in
:02:11. > :02:15.line for the job! He was barely out of his pram when I said he should
:02:15. > :02:19.be the DG of the BBC! He is the former head of BBC News, so he is
:02:19. > :02:23.not a new kid on the block, but for a long while he has been chief
:02:23. > :02:30.executive of the Royal Opera House. So a lot of sitting on our
:02:30. > :02:37.programme of from now on. He succeeds George Entwistle, who
:02:37. > :02:42.lasted only 55 days in the post. I assume that he will last longer.
:02:42. > :02:45.Chris Patten has found a replacement, and kind of gone
:02:46. > :02:51.outside, going outside the existing hierarchy to bring somebody Baku
:02:51. > :02:57.used to be in the hierarchy. It is very BBC that it is somebody who is
:02:57. > :03:01.currently outside the BBC... Clearly he has gone out and got his
:03:01. > :03:05.man, Tony Hall was not an original applicant for the job.
:03:05. > :03:10.understanding is he did not apply for the job in the round that Mr
:03:10. > :03:15.Entwistle won. So they have gone out and recruited somebody quickly,
:03:15. > :03:20.which I'm sure is a good thing for the stability of the BBC. I guess
:03:20. > :03:25.Chris Patten thought, I need to get somebody out with the current
:03:25. > :03:30.structure, but I also need somebody who does know a bit about the BBC.
:03:30. > :03:36.It is still a managerial leadership position and you're still editor in
:03:37. > :03:41.chief. In Tony Hall, they are hoping they have found somebody who
:03:41. > :03:46.has got credibility on both fronts. He has done a great job as a
:03:46. > :03:53.journalist and also running the Royal Opera House. Are you
:03:53. > :04:00.available to be the new boss of the Royal Opera House? Not yet!
:04:00. > :04:03.Anywhere, there we go, Tony all is the new director general of the BBC.
:04:03. > :04:07.It's show time in Brussels. David Cameron arrived there this morning
:04:07. > :04:11.looking for allies to freeze the EU budget for the next seven years at
:04:11. > :04:14.its current level. There are those other than Britain who also want a
:04:14. > :04:17.real-terms freeze, as the jargon has it. But many more want an
:04:17. > :04:20.increase, especially those who do well out of Brussels largesse.
:04:20. > :04:27.There is already talk of compromise but the Prime Minister is still
:04:27. > :04:30.talking tough. I am not happy at all. These are
:04:30. > :04:34.important negotiations, at a time and we are making difficult
:04:34. > :04:38.decisions at home over public spending, it is quite wrong for
:04:38. > :04:43.there to beat proposals for this increased extra spending in the EU.
:04:43. > :04:50.So we will be negotiating very hard for a good deal for Britain's
:04:50. > :04:54.taxpayers and to keep the British rebate. They always say that sort
:04:54. > :05:01.of thing when they arrive. I wonder what he is going to say when he
:05:01. > :05:11.leaves. Let's go to the man who knows! Mark a card for us. Where
:05:11. > :05:16.are we in this Budget process? are involved in here, with a day of
:05:16. > :05:20.bilateral, conversations between government leaders between the
:05:20. > :05:24.president of the council and President Barroso. First up was
:05:25. > :05:30.President -- David Cameron, who was supposed to go in there and present
:05:30. > :05:34.his position for 15 minutes. He was in there for 35 minutes. He was
:05:34. > :05:39.first up because Britain it is still seen as key. If you can
:05:39. > :05:44.strike a deal with the British, perhaps you will get others on side.
:05:44. > :05:48.Afterwards, we are hearing there is a long way to go. I should say that
:05:48. > :05:52.the president of the council thinks he has moved a long way towards the
:05:52. > :05:56.British position. His people are going around saying that what they
:05:56. > :06:00.have on the table already amounts to a cut. The British are saying,
:06:00. > :06:04.not so fast, they want a further reduction. That deal would also
:06:04. > :06:12.involve some reduction in the British rebate, and as far as the
:06:12. > :06:16.British are concerned, that is non- negotiable. Tell me this, if Mr
:06:16. > :06:20.Cameron is sticking to his line in the sand, which is a real-terms
:06:20. > :06:25.freeze, I know other countries do not want much of an increase or any
:06:25. > :06:33.increase in the Budget. But is there anybody in the EU feeling as
:06:33. > :06:37.strongly as Britain about a real- terms freeze, and no further?
:06:37. > :06:41.think there are people who feel as strongly as the British, that
:06:41. > :06:44.spending needs to be reined in. Whether they go as far as the
:06:44. > :06:49.British, whether they would be prepared to use their veto, we
:06:49. > :06:55.don't know. But certainly, the Swedish, the Dutch, they are
:06:55. > :06:58.equally adamant that there has to be a freeze, or at least a large
:06:58. > :07:03.reduction in EU spending. What we don't know is whether they are
:07:03. > :07:05.prepared to compromise. The attitude here is that the British
:07:05. > :07:09.position is understandable, but most other countries come here,
:07:09. > :07:13.laying out their position beforehand, and then they
:07:13. > :07:17.compromise. The feeling here is that David Cameron has boxed
:07:17. > :07:22.himself into a corner. He has said, this is what we want, we will use
:07:22. > :07:26.our veto if necessary, but now he is here, he will come under great
:07:26. > :07:29.pressure to compromise. Some of those natural allies he has got to
:07:29. > :07:33.have signalled they might be prepared to compromise more than
:07:33. > :07:40.the British. You have got a long day ahead of you! Thank you for
:07:40. > :07:45.joining us. What he has said I think is right, that the
:07:45. > :07:50.negotiating position of the British Prime Minister is also the position
:07:50. > :07:54.he must negotiate, he hasn't got much room to compromise. Not at all.
:07:54. > :08:00.Coming off the back of the vote in the House of Commons, which pushed
:08:00. > :08:03.for a stronger position, more of a cut, I don't think he has room to
:08:03. > :08:07.compromise, I don't dig he wants to. He has been clear and consistent
:08:07. > :08:12.throughout, which is to keep the rebate and push for real-terms
:08:12. > :08:19.freeze. The other thing to bear in mind is that this isn't the last
:08:19. > :08:24.point at which a position can be made. Brinkmanship is the classic
:08:24. > :08:28.work in Europe. They can have this meeting and find another option, it
:08:28. > :08:32.is likely that nothing will happen this time around. You have worked
:08:32. > :08:38.with the Prime Minister. There are some Tory backbenchers are now
:08:38. > :08:42.questioning his Eurosceptic credentials. In your view how Euro-
:08:42. > :08:46.sceptic is he? A I think he is a Euro-sceptic, not to the extent of
:08:46. > :08:49.some people in the party, who want to leave. He wants to see a
:08:49. > :08:54.reformed Europe, he thinks our place is in a reformed Europe, that
:08:54. > :08:58.is the message he is taking. I think it is extraordinary to be
:08:58. > :09:04.thinking of adding 100 billion extra Euros, at a time when every
:09:04. > :09:09.single government of the 27 is cutting costs, it does seem an
:09:09. > :09:17.extraordinary proposition. We will see what happens. They will be
:09:17. > :09:20.burning the midnight oil! 3 SERPS, that is what they call it. -- three
:09:21. > :09:23.shirts. Now, David Cameron says the
:09:23. > :09:27.prospect of giving prisoners the vote makes him "physically ill" -
:09:27. > :09:30.but legislation to be announced later today could do exactly that.
:09:30. > :09:32.The issue of giving prisoners the vote has been a problem for British
:09:33. > :09:41.governments of all persuasions since the European Court of Human
:09:41. > :09:44.Rights first ruled in 2004 that a In February, MPs voted by 234 to 22
:09:44. > :09:54.to keep the ban, in response to a proposal to give the vote to
:09:54. > :09:56.offenders sentenced to a custodial sentence of less than four years.
:09:56. > :10:06.The government indicated it would respect Parliament's wishes by
:10:06. > :10:08.
:10:08. > :10:15.doing the minimum needed to comply. 4pm tomorrow is the deadline for
:10:15. > :10:17.Britain to respond to the court's latest order on the issue. So it is
:10:17. > :10:22.expected that this afternoon the Justice Secretary Chris Grayling
:10:22. > :10:25.will publish a draft Bill with offering MPs a range of options:
:10:25. > :10:35.Votes for prisoners imprisoned for up to four years, for up to six
:10:35. > :10:42.
:10:42. > :10:45.It is that blanket ban that annoys the European Court of. I'm now
:10:45. > :10:55.joined by the Conservative MP Dominic Raab, and the Director of
:10:55. > :10:56.
:10:56. > :11:02.the campaign Liberty, Shami Chakrabarti. Dominic Raab, let me
:11:02. > :11:06.come to you first. I just want to get the policy here. A spokesman
:11:06. > :11:12.for the Prime Minister said yesterday, "if people go to prison,
:11:12. > :11:15.they lose the right to vote, that is our policy." but today the
:11:15. > :11:19.government is introducing legislation that could change that
:11:19. > :11:23.policy, so what is the policy? think the policy is that ultimately
:11:23. > :11:29.the Prime Minister and the President of the Supreme Court have
:11:29. > :11:32.also made his point, it is for Parliament to make these decisions.
:11:32. > :11:37.There is a feeling this is being punted into the long grass.
:11:37. > :11:41.Ultimately parliament will have to decide between the range of options.
:11:41. > :11:47.I thought the government policy was that there should be no vote for
:11:47. > :11:51.prisoners. Since when did you have a policy when you offered an
:11:51. > :11:54.alternative to the policy? It is a reasonable point. Constitutionally,
:11:54. > :11:59.the answer is that the Prime Minister wants to allow Parliament
:11:59. > :12:04.to decide because ultimately it is for elected lawmakers to make the
:12:04. > :12:12.law of the land. It is clear that Prime Minister does not want to
:12:12. > :12:17.overturn the current band. Parliament but the way you did, --
:12:17. > :12:21.votes the way you did, what will you do? I think what will happen is
:12:21. > :12:26.the case will go back to the Strasbourg court, it will remain an
:12:26. > :12:30.and implemented ruling. It will go to the committee of ministers, who
:12:30. > :12:33.have been calling on Strasbourg to medal are less. There is no
:12:33. > :12:38.realistic chance of being kicked out of the Council of Europe, the
:12:38. > :12:44.worst we will get is a polite diplomatic rap on the knuckles.
:12:44. > :12:47.is very depressing to hear Dominic talking about flouting a court
:12:47. > :12:51.order. Because that is what we're talking about. Whether it is an
:12:51. > :12:55.international court, the local magistrates' court, identical
:12:55. > :13:00.majesty's government should pick and choose which court judgments to
:13:00. > :13:05.obey. Why should a kid I council estate obey the ASBO of the local
:13:05. > :13:12.magistrate if her Majesty's government want a baby this? There
:13:12. > :13:17.is so much room for manoeuvre. do you think should happen?
:13:17. > :13:23.personally support boats for all prisoners, because I don't know how
:13:23. > :13:27.you rehabilitate prisoners by saying they cannot vote. But the
:13:27. > :13:30.point is not now about prisoner voting any more, it is about
:13:30. > :13:34.whether we believe in the rule of law. I think the doublet to say, we
:13:34. > :13:39.will just ignore the court and we will not get kicked out of the
:13:39. > :13:44.Council of Europe, we might get kicked out one day. In the meantime,
:13:44. > :13:51.what kind of signal to we sent to Vladimir Putin... Do you think he
:13:51. > :13:58.is watching this? The Russian court floods that all the time. So this
:13:58. > :14:02.is the signal we are sending, it doesn't matter. My point to you is
:14:02. > :14:09.that we have never flattered the court before. The Russians have
:14:09. > :14:15.flouted it regularly, they are the biggest at doing that. Why would
:14:15. > :14:19.hours make any difference? I think that... I have heard in the past,
:14:20. > :14:24.in the days of Mr Blair, wanting to lock people up for 90 days, lock
:14:24. > :14:31.them up indefinitely without charge or trial, I heard Robert Mugabe's
:14:31. > :14:34.ministers saying, if you can do it in Britain, we can do it. It gives
:14:34. > :14:40.people a credibility that they do not deserve a for flouting
:14:40. > :14:45.international law. I think the point she is making his it is the
:14:45. > :14:48.job by ministers, they are bound to obey court rulings. You might not
:14:48. > :14:52.like the court ruling, made you shouldn't have signed up to it in
:14:52. > :15:02.the first place. You might not like the way it is going, but that is
:15:02. > :15:09.
:15:09. > :15:17.It is precisely not what we signed up to. There is a big it issue. We
:15:17. > :15:23.can talk about prisoner voting. -- a big debt issue. What happens when
:15:23. > :15:28.you have this tribunal expanding? That is a legislative function.
:15:28. > :15:35.That is the attack on democracy. You cannot have democracy without
:15:35. > :15:41.the rule of law. Sometimes you need independent referees. This is now
:15:41. > :15:46.like the Supreme Court in America was in the 1960s. It is an activist
:15:46. > :15:51.court. It is making up its own rulings. There is no right to
:15:51. > :15:55.universal suffrage in the Convention of Human Rights. There
:15:55. > :16:04.is a right to participate in free elections. What the court rejected
:16:04. > :16:14.was a Victorian, blanket ban on prisoner voting. Convicted
:16:14. > :16:15.
:16:15. > :16:20.prisoners. There is no blanket ban. You had your say, now it is my turn.
:16:20. > :16:24.I happen to believe in all prisoners voting. The court
:16:24. > :16:28.judgment could be implemented by something much more subtle and
:16:28. > :16:34.minimalist than that. Sometimes you do need to meet another institution
:16:34. > :16:38.halfway to keep democracy alive. you go to prison in this country,
:16:38. > :16:47.there is a blanket ban. If you are imprisoned for contempt of court
:16:47. > :16:57.boy fine default, you can vote. -- or a fine default. The point is,
:16:57. > :16:59.
:16:59. > :17:03.there are lots of common sense compromise ways... Given that you
:17:03. > :17:09.are in favour of all prisoners getting the vote, what would the
:17:09. > :17:14.compromise be? The minimalist option offered in this Bill is that
:17:14. > :17:20.prisoners in for less than four months of... Six months, I think.
:17:20. > :17:30.Or people about to be released. Instead of having a fight with the
:17:30. > :17:31.
:17:31. > :17:38.European Court, we wrote the convention largely, why don't we
:17:38. > :17:44.just agreed to six months? For most prisoners, there won't be an
:17:44. > :17:48.election in that time. People are about to be released from prison.
:17:48. > :17:53.The first point is, the six-month option would mean 5000 convicted
:17:53. > :17:57.criminals at least notionally getting the right to vote them in -
:17:57. > :18:04.- including many sexual offenders, violent offenders and homicide
:18:04. > :18:09.offenders. Many people would have a problem with that. She seems to
:18:09. > :18:17.think we are in a diplomatic haggle with the Strasbourg court. That is
:18:17. > :18:24.contrary to the rule of law. Either they are right or they are wrong.
:18:24. > :18:31.It is not applying the convention. Should you not come out? I support
:18:31. > :18:35.the convention. That is a nonsense position. When Britain signed up to
:18:35. > :18:41.the convention, we punted it 15 years later before we signed up to
:18:41. > :18:47.the court. There were huge concerns about the court. Have laws without
:18:47. > :18:50.a court to enforce them. That is an excellent position. The vast
:18:50. > :18:53.majority of international human rights conventions do not have a
:18:53. > :18:58.body enforcing them. I think the Supreme Court should have the last
:18:58. > :19:02.word on this. They said prisoner should not have a vote. What is the
:19:02. > :19:07.point in a British Supreme Court but does not have the last per --
:19:07. > :19:15.the last word? Do we sometimes listen to judgments with which we
:19:15. > :19:22.disagree? You have to do that as a citizen and a politician. It seems
:19:22. > :19:25.there is civil war going on. There is a way important point about
:19:25. > :19:30.sovereignty. It's the European Court has said this needs to happen,
:19:30. > :19:35.if a parliament is not prepared to pass anything and the Government is
:19:35. > :19:43.not prepared to do anything, how can anything happen? This is the
:19:43. > :19:46.crucial point. We made the European -- the European Court superior to
:19:46. > :19:52.Parliament. We said the European Court could judge the actions of
:19:53. > :19:59.the British Parliament against the principles embodied in the
:19:59. > :20:03.convention. We signed up to the convention. It requires a
:20:04. > :20:09.Parliament to make policy. About the Supreme Court in the US, there
:20:09. > :20:13.is a massive danger when High Court make rulings - policy decisions -
:20:13. > :20:19.without proper debate in a parliamentary democracy, in that
:20:19. > :20:23.kind of forum. That creates a culture. You are still seeing that
:20:23. > :20:29.ridden in American politics. My danger is you get big policy
:20:29. > :20:36.decisions made by judges who are not accountable, rather than
:20:36. > :20:42.politicians. That erodes trust in politics. We will come back to this.
:20:42. > :20:49.So, talking of Strasbourg, our very own Jo Coburn is there today. Why,
:20:49. > :20:53.you may ask? Well, it's that time when those crazy MEPs leave
:20:53. > :21:01.Brussels for a few days and head to the capital of Alsace at a cost of
:21:01. > :21:04.180 million euros a year. Who better to ask about David Cameron's
:21:04. > :21:14.attempt to trim the EU budget than Members of the European Parliament
:21:14. > :21:16.
:21:16. > :21:20.who will, after all, have to agree any deal. Here's Jo. Negotiations
:21:20. > :21:25.are under way. The bargaining in Brussels between the European Union
:21:25. > :21:30.leaders. Even if they do agree a budget deal, and that is a big if,
:21:30. > :21:34.it has to be approved by Members of the European Parliament here in
:21:34. > :21:44.Strasbourg. The signs so far have not been great. With me to discuss
:21:44. > :21:47.
:21:47. > :21:53.the prospects of success, are three MEPs. Richard, let's kick-off. What
:21:53. > :22:00.do you think the chances of success on a budget deal? 50/50. Is that
:22:00. > :22:05.better? Has had improved over the last few weeks? It is normal for
:22:05. > :22:09.negotiations at this stage. You will note that different parties,
:22:09. > :22:13.different countries are coming from very widely differing positions.
:22:13. > :22:17.There is a certain amount of grandstanding. We'll know we have
:22:17. > :22:23.to reach compromise at some stage. Will we reach it this time?
:22:23. > :22:31.Probably not. Sooner or later, we well. Are you are as optimistic for
:22:31. > :22:36.a deal over the next few days? not think so. Few countries are
:22:36. > :22:41.extremely far away from a compromise. We have managed to come
:22:41. > :22:47.together on different issues with different countries. Some countries
:22:47. > :22:51.on the size of the Budget and some on social policy. Everyone has a
:22:51. > :22:55.piece of cake. If they are wise enough to bring together a
:22:55. > :23:05.compromise career that would be excellent but I doubt it. Do you
:23:05. > :23:07.
:23:07. > :23:12.doubt it? It will be very difficult. I think around 55%. He has said
:23:12. > :23:17.that everyone must compromise. If that is the case, all governments
:23:17. > :23:20.are ready to negotiate and find a compromise so we can come to a
:23:20. > :23:25.result. Do you think David Cameron will compromise in the sense that
:23:25. > :23:32.he will not necessarily stick to the real-terms freeze that he wants
:23:32. > :23:36.- that he will pay more? Some things are clearly defined. The
:23:36. > :23:44.United Kingdom is going to extreme lengths to deal with the budget
:23:44. > :23:46.deficit. People genuinely understand that. He will be
:23:46. > :23:52.explaining to other colleagues of European nations that we are having
:23:52. > :23:56.to lay-off nurses, policemen, give redundancy notices to soldiers and,
:23:57. > :24:01.at a time, when we're going to turn round and ask for more money for
:24:01. > :24:06.Europe. That is not acceptable. is that the red line in the sand?
:24:06. > :24:10.It is one area we will be negotiating hard fall. It is a
:24:10. > :24:15.multi-faceted thing and there are many angles to look at. He will not
:24:15. > :24:19.move on that. What is wrong with national governments same, we were
:24:19. > :24:26.not agree with increased spending in the EU when we're cutting
:24:26. > :24:32.budgets at home? It is about freezing spending. The British
:24:32. > :24:36.government wants to freeze them at some accounting figure. Free
:24:36. > :24:40.something that you have. Do not freeze something that does not
:24:40. > :24:44.exist any more. If we keep these levels until 2020, that is one
:24:44. > :24:50.thing. The problem will be that the European Union were not be able to
:24:50. > :24:56.achieve the political commitments in the same way it could. The
:24:56. > :25:00.budget is an instrument that is not the purpose. Britain is not going
:25:00. > :25:05.to get what it once was dug it can have a starting level but it will
:25:05. > :25:10.have to agree to something above a real-terms freeze. If I hope we're
:25:10. > :25:15.not getting too hung up on the figures. If you look at Britain and
:25:16. > :25:20.Germany, the difference is not great. It is about how you spend
:25:20. > :25:25.the money when you have got it. Priorities need to change to
:25:25. > :25:28.reflect the times we are in. Germany also wants the overall
:25:28. > :25:37.spending to come down. David Cameron and Angela Merkel wants the
:25:37. > :25:42.money to come down. We do like a freeze? The European Union has
:25:43. > :25:48.competences to fulfil. It has won new country, Croatia. A freeze
:25:48. > :25:52.would mean a decrease, in fact, because of these reasons. This has
:25:52. > :25:59.to be taken into account to come to a fair result. We should meet
:25:59. > :26:05.somewhere in the middle. Everyone has to move. Also the European
:26:05. > :26:11.Parliament needs to compromise. It means everyone has to move. Then we
:26:11. > :26:15.will make it will start to say we're not just cut, become to
:26:15. > :26:19.research, innovation questions, all those questions. That would be the
:26:19. > :26:25.easiest way. The problem for the UK government is the pressure David
:26:25. > :26:30.Cameron is under from his own party. Is the Conservative Party move into
:26:30. > :26:35.a position of better off out? would not think so. That is extreme
:26:35. > :26:39.territory to get yourself into. We have a clear message that we want
:26:39. > :26:44.to be in the European Union but we think spending priorities need to
:26:44. > :26:49.change. They need to take drastic action to restore the health of the
:26:49. > :26:54.euros. The recognise the steps they have to take. They are not going
:26:54. > :27:00.down that road. The world out there is changing around. If Europe wants
:27:00. > :27:04.to fall behind, that is something we wish to avoid. Many in the
:27:04. > :27:08.Conservative Party to support that view. Just recently in a vote in
:27:08. > :27:13.Parliament, many rebels sided with the idea of a cut in the Budget.
:27:13. > :27:17.Many think the relationship with Europe has to change. That is what
:27:17. > :27:22.the Prime Minister is saying. He has talked about a review of
:27:22. > :27:30.competencies and taking a hard line on the Budget. Do you think the UK
:27:30. > :27:36.is heading towards the exit door? The UK would not like to keep the
:27:36. > :27:40.budget - that is the decrees. This is the structure of the Budget. The
:27:40. > :27:50.UK veto will come because that budget is not well-structured and
:27:50. > :27:52.
:27:52. > :27:56.the spending is not well directed. Just to say, for the EU expanding,
:27:56. > :28:00.this is 0.827 % of public expenditure. You will not save much
:28:00. > :28:04.money out of that. More than half the exports would go to the single
:28:04. > :28:10.market in Europe. The benefits are much larger than that. I would
:28:10. > :28:15.think twice. The way of spending is extremely important. We need to
:28:15. > :28:19.have the amounts for filling the policies. From the perspective of
:28:19. > :28:25.Germany, do you think the UK is heading out of the European Union -
:28:25. > :28:30.may be slowly - but that is the way they are heading? You always
:28:30. > :28:33.admired the British ability to be practical. I do not believe the
:28:33. > :28:39.minority in the Tory Party would win. We would like to have Britain
:28:39. > :28:43.in four lots of reasons. The place of Britain is in Europe and cities
:28:43. > :28:51.in the interests of Britain to be in Europe. Thank you very much.
:28:51. > :28:55.There was see how negotiations go over the next 36 hours. -- we will
:28:55. > :28:58.see. So, it's a big day for David Cameron but, after two and half
:28:58. > :29:01.years in the top job, how well do we really know the man himself?
:29:01. > :29:04.James O'Shaugnessy worked closely with the Prime Minister, first in
:29:04. > :29:07.Opposition then in then in Government. Before we ask him for
:29:07. > :29:10.his perspective on Cameron the man, here's Giles, who's been taking his
:29:10. > :29:14.own soundings. When you aspire to be, and then become Prime Minister,
:29:14. > :29:17.people ask, and probably have a right to ask who you are as a
:29:17. > :29:19.person. David Cameron hasn't been shy, early on we were invited to
:29:19. > :29:26.see him behind the scenes, but actually such insights are
:29:26. > :29:29.carefully managed. And it's his personality in so far as it shapes
:29:30. > :29:38.how he does his job that's of real interest. Before the election he'd
:29:38. > :29:44.explained his ambitions. I was there that night when David Cameron
:29:44. > :29:47.was asked why he wanted to be Prime Minister. His response was, I think
:29:47. > :29:51.there would be good at it. Critics say, the main point of what he's
:29:52. > :29:55.doing is that he wants to be Prime Minister and he wants the job for
:29:55. > :30:02.his own sake but he is not driven by a sense of mission of vision to
:30:02. > :30:07.change the country and lead it in a particular direction. I think he
:30:07. > :30:11.has that very English temperament about him that distrusts ideology.
:30:11. > :30:16.He thinks ideas have their place. He would not be a politician if he
:30:16. > :30:21.did not. He even distrust the harshness and absolutism of
:30:21. > :30:25.political ideology. That might explain why many of his critics
:30:25. > :30:31.have won the right of the party to fill their politics are forged from
:30:31. > :30:35.heart and belief, it not strategy. He is not a deeply ideological
:30:35. > :30:41.Thatcherite. He does have to deal with a coalition. He did have to
:30:41. > :30:47.deal in the past with a hostile media environment. I do not blame
:30:47. > :30:51.him for that. It got him into Number 10. He took with him a crowd
:30:51. > :30:55.of people who have long been personally and professionally loyal.
:30:55. > :31:01.One of the features of Cameron the man is that he tends to rely on
:31:01. > :31:06.people he has known for a very long time. It is rare for an outsider to
:31:06. > :31:11.be committed properly into the inner circle. Some people will see
:31:11. > :31:15.that as a strength. Critics will say, if you want a Prime Minister
:31:15. > :31:21.who is going to change things and get stuck in, he must sometimes be
:31:21. > :31:25.prepared to fire his friends. David Cameron has never really done that.
:31:25. > :31:30.I think Cameron is a man who does not suffer fools gladly. In my
:31:30. > :31:35.experience, he was fair but firm as a boss. If people are not up to the
:31:35. > :31:39.job, they won it pretty quickly. They say No. 10 reflects the
:31:39. > :31:43.character of the person at the top. That seems very true of this PM
:31:43. > :31:49.compared with other characters at the top of the party. Osborne likes
:31:49. > :31:56.the clean, sharp, clinical operation. Boris like delegating to
:31:56. > :32:01.people who he trusts. David Cameron does like a certain muddy mess - a
:32:01. > :32:05.certain lack of definition - is certain relaxed quality in the
:32:05. > :32:11.atmosphere. That seems to be part of he hears. Anyone's character can
:32:11. > :32:15.be analysed for strength and weakness. Some traits can be either.
:32:15. > :32:25.Nobody is perfect. It is just the stakes are much higher getting it
:32:25. > :32:27.
:32:27. > :32:33.Let's come into what is happening at the moment in Brussels. How good
:32:33. > :32:37.is he at negotiating? How good are his negotiating skills? A think the
:32:37. > :32:41.coalition, the fact of the coalition, stands as a pretty good
:32:41. > :32:48.testament to those skills. He got what he wanted to get, which is to
:32:48. > :32:54.become Prime Minister and to form a stable government. I think he gets
:32:54. > :32:58.the kind of outcomes he wants. you foreseen that as an option, did
:32:58. > :33:03.he have a game plan for that, is that what unfolded after the
:33:03. > :33:07.election or did he make it up as he went along? I think there was a bit
:33:07. > :33:14.of both. If he worked at the polls throughout the campaign, it never
:33:14. > :33:18.looked like anybody would have a convincing majority. The Lib Dems
:33:18. > :33:22.were doing things -- well during things like the leadership debates.
:33:22. > :33:29.So clearly he was thinking of a what-if scenario, but you do not
:33:29. > :33:34.know how things will pan out. Having seen the position as it was,
:33:34. > :33:40.within 24 hours, he was making an open, comprehensive offered to the
:33:40. > :33:45.Lib Dems, and it was on the morning of that Friday. By the Tuesday,
:33:45. > :33:49.they were in government. In Europe, coalitions of can take weeks to
:33:49. > :33:55.come together, so that was extraordinary. He is not good on
:33:55. > :33:59.detail, say his critics. Very much not true. He has an incredible mind,
:33:59. > :34:04.and superb judgment, which is why I always thought he would be a good
:34:04. > :34:08.Prime Minister. He really does read all the briefs and is across the
:34:08. > :34:15.details? John Major always said he was proud to be. This idea of him
:34:15. > :34:20.slacking off is not true, he gets off -- get up incredibly early, he
:34:21. > :34:26.is across there are things he needs to be. What he has is a willingness
:34:26. > :34:32.to delegate to his cabinet ministers the broad bones of a
:34:32. > :34:38.programme, and trust them to get on with it. He looks in on them from
:34:38. > :34:42.time to time, where there are issues, he get deeply involved.
:34:42. > :34:49.said to have a bit of a temper in private, have you seen the rough
:34:49. > :34:54.end of that? I have never seen that. At the end, he doesn't really stand
:34:54. > :34:58.for anything, he is a managerial Conservative, when asked why he
:34:58. > :35:02.wanted to be Prime Minister, he didn't say because he wanted to
:35:02. > :35:06.create world peace or alleviate the condition of the people, along
:35:06. > :35:10.Disraeli lines, he said, I think I would be rather good at it. I am
:35:10. > :35:14.not sure he would say that was a complete description of why he
:35:14. > :35:17.wanted to be a Prime Minister, but I would say firstly, he is a
:35:17. > :35:23.classic conservative, not an ideologist, but look at his
:35:23. > :35:26.principles. Look at the stance he has taken on a gay marriage. One of
:35:26. > :35:30.the first things he said when he was running for the leadership of
:35:30. > :35:36.the Conservative Party was he believed in marriage for a man or
:35:36. > :35:43.woman, or a woman and a woman ought to man. I think he is consistent on
:35:43. > :35:47.the things he believes passionately in, and you have to judge him on
:35:47. > :35:53.what the government does, he is overseeing a government which has
:35:53. > :35:58.Ken Clarke in it, Iain Duncan Smith, William Hague, a huge range of
:35:59. > :36:03.talent across the party, that no Prime Minister has managed to unite
:36:03. > :36:10.for a long time. That is in itself an extraordinary achievement. They
:36:10. > :36:17.are doing a lot of things history would judge as being pretty radical.
:36:17. > :36:21.We have been joined by Mr -- viewers in Scotland. Our guest of
:36:21. > :36:27.the day is setting up not just one or two academies, but a whole chain
:36:27. > :36:32.of them, in conjunction with Wellington College. Before we hear
:36:32. > :36:36.about that, and his academies only take place in England, not in
:36:36. > :36:40.Scotland, let's recap on where we are with the government's flagship
:36:40. > :36:45.education policy. According to the Department for Education there are
:36:45. > :36:47.2,456 six academies open in England. The government says academies
:36:47. > :36:56.benefit from greater freedoms that innovate and raise standards,
:36:56. > :36:59.because they are free from local authority control. They can set
:36:59. > :37:02.their own pay and conditions for staff, have freedoms around the
:37:02. > :37:07.curriculum, as well as the ability to change the length of terms and
:37:07. > :37:12.school days. Now successful academies are setting up sister
:37:12. > :37:16.schools, creating so-called "chain academies". So far there are around
:37:16. > :37:18.48 academy chains covering nearly 350 academies. Critics claim
:37:18. > :37:24.academies are the privatisation of education, and that they benefit
:37:24. > :37:27.more affluent neighbourhoods with the extra money they receive. And
:37:27. > :37:29.today the National Audit Office has said a tenfold increase in the
:37:29. > :37:32.number of schools converting to academies has resulted in �1
:37:32. > :37:42.billion of extra costs - which the Department for Education was
:37:42. > :37:46.
:37:46. > :37:50.unprepared for. Which I think is a polite way of saying it didn't have
:37:50. > :37:56.the money! James O'Shaughnessy is in the process of setting up a
:37:56. > :38:02.chain academy, and Alasdair Smith is from the Anti-Academies Alliance.
:38:02. > :38:08.I think we know his position! Give me the case for academies. They
:38:08. > :38:13.work, quite simply. The evidence we now seek for academy set up under
:38:13. > :38:17.Labour, so-called sponsored academies, Gwent and they take over
:38:17. > :38:22.failing school and improve it, they are on average perform better than
:38:22. > :38:28.schools that didn't go down that route. And Labour idea that this
:38:28. > :38:34.condition has picked up? Some work, some don't, that is the problem. It
:38:34. > :38:38.is not about an average. Some have been very successful, but some
:38:38. > :38:42.academies, the Basildon academies, these are academies in special
:38:42. > :38:47.measures. There is nothing magic about academies or sponsorship, and
:38:47. > :38:52.we have been sold a pass by both New Labour and the coalition that
:38:52. > :38:56.there is some kind of magic dust, it doesn't exist. You point by
:38:56. > :39:01.dismissing something on average, you cannot have a proper argument
:39:01. > :39:04.about anecdotes. You need to add value it at type of programme in
:39:04. > :39:08.all its forms and see that is more or less effective. It is true that
:39:08. > :39:16.there are academies at haven't worked, no one would disagree but
:39:16. > :39:17.that. Similarly, there are maintained schools that have done
:39:17. > :39:21.brilliantly and some that hadn't worked. But the LSC did a review of
:39:21. > :39:24.the sponsored academies that were set up under Labour and found that
:39:24. > :39:28.not only were they are performing better than schools that hadn't
:39:28. > :39:35.gone down that route, but they also brought benefits for neighbouring
:39:35. > :39:40.schools. So there was a competition effect that raised... A so it is
:39:40. > :39:43.really important not to say, they don't do a good job, but to
:39:43. > :39:49.evaluate the programmes are crossed the range. You say that is what the
:39:49. > :39:54.report says, it cannot identify... All the new Labour academies had
:39:54. > :39:57.with than �30 million of new buildings, generous transitional
:39:57. > :40:01.funding, changes in school leadership. It wasn't the academy
:40:01. > :40:06.status, it was the bricks and mortar, the changing in teaching
:40:06. > :40:10.and learning, in leadership. It is nothing about academy status. The
:40:10. > :40:16.evidence is that the London challenge has been the most sister
:40:16. > :40:20.-- successful form of school improvement, and much cheaper. So
:40:20. > :40:24.I'm happy to acknowledge some academies have been successful, but
:40:24. > :40:27.some of failing, and we can't tolerate that situation. We need to
:40:27. > :40:32.look at the school improvement system that works for every school.
:40:32. > :40:37.But quite a few comprehensives file, and we tolerate that. I don't think
:40:37. > :40:44.we do. We tolerated that for the best part of 20, 30 years. It
:40:44. > :40:49.wasn't until James Callaghan, in 1976, talked about the secret
:40:49. > :40:53.garden speech, when the public have an interest in what is going on in
:40:53. > :40:58.schools. What was going on then was appalling in many instances. No
:40:59. > :41:02.attempt to do things like children the basics. The long march back in
:41:02. > :41:06.favour of standards, that has happened under consecutive
:41:06. > :41:10.governments, find its latest expression in the Academy movement.
:41:10. > :41:14.The reason for that is in many cases, the secondary schools were
:41:14. > :41:19.able to throw off appalling local authorities he did nothing for them,
:41:19. > :41:23.who did worse than nothing, who dragged them down. They took the
:41:23. > :41:27.power of entrepreneurs to do something different. Some local
:41:27. > :41:30.authorities, Tower Hamlets, Camden in London, who have been
:41:30. > :41:34.fantastically successful. Just to say that the local authority model
:41:34. > :41:39.was bad because it didn't work in some places is nonsense, it is
:41:39. > :41:46.costing us a fortune. What would you do in those places? We need to
:41:46. > :41:49.beef up local authorities. You can look at examples like Alberta in
:41:49. > :41:54.Canada, where the local authority works in an effective way. There
:41:54. > :42:01.are lots of models of making them accountable. It is having a
:42:01. > :42:07.democratically accountable middle to here. Who is that? Sir Michael
:42:07. > :42:10.will trot, the chair of Ofsted! some academies are failing, why is
:42:11. > :42:16.that allowed to happen? It is a good question, one of the problems
:42:16. > :42:22.we are facing his there used to be 200 academies, and there are a
:42:22. > :42:25.handful of those below the accepted standard. It used to be the case
:42:25. > :42:34.that the DFE had a capacity to intervene in those and try and sort
:42:34. > :42:42.them out. We are now in a situation that there are 2500, and the
:42:43. > :42:46.question is, who is intervening, if you like? De chair of Ofsted is
:42:46. > :42:50.intending that they should start inspecting, not just all academies
:42:50. > :42:53.but Academy chains, and working out if they are good or not. I
:42:53. > :42:57.absolutely welcome back. I think anybody who believes in the
:42:57. > :43:01.programme needs to be transparent. Is it your view that everybody
:43:01. > :43:08.should go to a local authority comprehensive? I think everybody
:43:08. > :43:13.should go to a good local school. It is not about it been a
:43:13. > :43:19.comprehensive. Do you think there should be other state schools that
:43:19. > :43:24.are not local authority schools? think we need a good local school...
:43:24. > :43:29.That is not what I asked. Do you think they should be the sole
:43:29. > :43:33.providers? I think we need local, democratic accountability. If you
:43:33. > :43:37.look at systems like in Finland, there is a local authority system,
:43:37. > :43:44.but not the same as we are familiar with in here. You need to have a
:43:44. > :43:50.middle Tear, democratic accountability, planning, or cannot
:43:50. > :43:54.Collaboration, these are simple, technical things we need. We can
:43:54. > :44:01.get this without this headlong drive into privatisation. Hang on a
:44:01. > :44:05.minute, privatisation... We are running out of time. Legally, they
:44:05. > :44:12.are called exempt charities, they are charity is regretted by the DFE,
:44:12. > :44:22.taking issue share capital, they cannot even raise debt. Let's leave
:44:22. > :44:24.
:44:24. > :44:27.it there, I'm afraid. Interesting original principles of the welfare
:44:27. > :44:31.state, where you have to pay in before you get the benefits, and
:44:31. > :44:36.with a renewed emphasis on individual responsibility. That is
:44:36. > :44:40.what a Conservative MP is arguing in a new pamphlet published today.
:44:40. > :44:43.We'll discuss his ideas in a moment, but first let me take you back to
:44:43. > :44:53.1942, when Sir William Beveridge laid out his plan for an all
:44:53. > :44:58.
:44:58. > :45:02.Oxford has had the unusual experience with Sir William
:45:02. > :45:08.Beveridge working at the college producing a social document of
:45:08. > :45:13.revolutionary importance. He has put the immense store of economic
:45:13. > :45:17.learning, human sympathy and Social Administration, accumulated in her
:45:17. > :45:25.long life of service devoted to his fellow men. If adopted, no one in
:45:25. > :45:34.Britain who is willing to work will ever again suffer absolute want.
:45:34. > :45:41.This proposes first a unified social insurance system. By paying
:45:41. > :45:50.a single, weekly contribution, through one Insurance stamp,
:45:50. > :45:56.everyone will be able to get all the benefits that he or his family
:45:56. > :46:03.need. The Beveridge Report shows had to begin overthrowing the five
:46:03. > :46:10.giant evils. Pittsburgh as all too great effort. Much can be done to
:46:10. > :46:15.peace. -- it spurs us all. Men and women in the armed forces do not
:46:15. > :46:23.require more incentive to do their utmost but we must believe a fuller
:46:24. > :46:27.life and better Britain awaits us after the war. Commentary from a
:46:27. > :46:30.time when currently was not entirely neutral in what it said.
:46:30. > :46:34.And I am joined by Chris Skidmore, Conservative MP and author of his
:46:34. > :46:36.own report, A New Beveridge, which marks the 70th anniversary of the
:46:36. > :46:44.original, Liberal Democrat MP and chairman of his party's Beveridge
:46:44. > :46:52.Group, John Pugh, and the Labour MP, Lisa Nandy. Welcome to all. Lay out
:46:52. > :46:58.your soul. What is Beveridge mark two? If it set about creating a
:46:58. > :47:01.national minimum and the safety net. People had to contribute. The
:47:01. > :47:05.understood they were putting into the state. It was a contract
:47:05. > :47:11.between the individual and the state. The safety net has become
:47:11. > :47:16.too high. We have become 53 presentable people becoming net
:47:16. > :47:21.recipients of state benefits. 70 years on, we have a huge
:47:22. > :47:27.demographic challenge. The average life expectancy was 59. It is
:47:27. > :47:31.rising dramatically. The need to go back to the original principles in
:47:31. > :47:35.understanding that, if we want a welfare state sustainable for the
:47:35. > :47:40.21st century, we cannot go along the original model of the pre-war
:47:40. > :47:44.report. We need to adapt it. problems which are outlined, such
:47:44. > :47:47.as affordability and people taking advantage of the welfare state and
:47:47. > :47:51.not exercising personal responsibilities. They were
:47:51. > :47:58.highlighted in the day of Beveridge and wear a dress them. Chris is not
:47:58. > :48:04.coming up with any solutions to the problems. -- were addressed then.
:48:04. > :48:14.Chris is proposing something much more radical. Making them repay
:48:14. > :48:14.
:48:14. > :48:18.their JSA. That is the jobseekers allowance. Reducing universal
:48:18. > :48:24.benefits. Beveridge understood very clearly that some element of
:48:24. > :48:28.universal benefit was essential. My worry is, if we go down that route,
:48:28. > :48:38.we Wallander with a more divided attitude on welfare there we have
:48:38. > :48:42.
:48:42. > :48:47.currently got. -- we will go down a more divided route on welfare.
:48:47. > :48:51.we lost sight of the very important part of Beveridge - the
:48:51. > :48:57.contributory principle? Weather Report is helpful is he does
:48:57. > :49:02.resurrect the idea of national insurance and social security. --
:49:02. > :49:11.where the report is helpful. Ashlyn shares today is really another tax,
:49:11. > :49:14.isn't it? -- national insurance. What was important is full
:49:14. > :49:19.employment. Mine are absolutely desperate for work. The vast
:49:19. > :49:23.majority of the 2.5 million people unemployed in this country want to
:49:23. > :49:27.work. It seems odd to me that what you have proposed in this report is
:49:27. > :49:32.based on the idea that people do not want to work. Take the proposal
:49:32. > :49:35.you made about young people. You say a young person who has not
:49:35. > :49:40.contributed much to the system should take unemployment benefits
:49:40. > :49:44.as a loan. How does that help? It that young person does not want to
:49:44. > :49:49.work, how does it encourage them into work when they know they would
:49:49. > :49:55.be paying more back into the system inconsequence? For London 50,000
:49:55. > :49:58.young people are claiming benefits. That is �25 million a week. What we
:49:59. > :50:02.have lost and the welfare state is incentivising individuals to do the
:50:02. > :50:07.right thing. How does that incentivise the young person who
:50:07. > :50:12.does not want to work? The vast majority do and they are not the
:50:12. > :50:17.jobs. Why would paying more, when they're getting work, incentivise
:50:17. > :50:21.them to get work? misunderstanding that everybody
:50:21. > :50:26.belongs to a society where they put-in. If you have not paid the
:50:26. > :50:30.tax, you have to owed the money to the State. That should apply to
:50:30. > :50:34.student fees as well. With the situation of women - women who
:50:34. > :50:37.choose to take time out of work in order to have children and bring up
:50:37. > :50:43.those children - presumably would not be arguing they should be
:50:43. > :50:46.penalised because they put less into the system than men? Of course
:50:46. > :50:51.not. The coalition government has looked at flexible paternity leave
:50:51. > :50:55.and I agree with that. The broad point is, if we want to have a
:50:55. > :50:59.welfare state with good schools and good hospitals, there is only a
:50:59. > :51:02.certain limited amount of money. We have to ensure that where
:51:02. > :51:08.millionaires are claiming winter fuel allowance, Beveridge would
:51:08. > :51:14.have turned in his grave. What would beverage have thought of the
:51:14. > :51:19.criticism that what was a rigid sign to be a hand up in the bad
:51:19. > :51:24.times -- was originally designed to be a hand up in the bad times has
:51:24. > :51:27.become a lifestyle? Beveridge was acutely aware of the Victorian
:51:27. > :51:33.distinction between the undeserving and the deserving poor. There are
:51:33. > :51:41.such people. Some are poor despite their best means. Any welfare
:51:41. > :51:48.system has had difficult half of -- task of differentiating these two
:51:48. > :51:54.categories was dubbed this view of human nature, he described the
:51:54. > :52:02.British working public as some of the biggest idlers on the planet.
:52:02. > :52:06.Deduce say that? It said we are among the worst idlers. -- did you
:52:06. > :52:10.say that? We have a huge problem with productivity in the Western
:52:10. > :52:15.world. In the 21st century, the Rules of the game have changed and
:52:15. > :52:20.we must adapt. Where do you come in? Something interesting happened
:52:20. > :52:27.in the 1960s. We took about deserving and undeserving. Benefits
:52:27. > :52:31.were based on what is deserved to what you need. The difficulty that
:52:31. > :52:35.people on the left have, which has been exposed for what Chris has
:52:35. > :52:40.written today, when we hear the Labour Party talking about the can
:52:40. > :52:43.to be due principle, are we happy about getting themselves into a
:52:43. > :52:47.position where they can say to themselves that people who have not
:52:47. > :52:50.been earning - immigrant families - large immigrant families, you will
:52:51. > :52:55.get a larger rate of benefit and someone who has been hit a long
:52:55. > :53:01.time? When Beveridge came up with his support for a mass immigration
:53:01. > :53:05.was not an issue. There was a sense of, if you had been serving in the
:53:05. > :53:09.Army, working in factories and so on, we have had people without that
:53:09. > :53:15.record. I prepared to say to those people, you will have a lower
:53:15. > :53:19.standard of living where you will be in poverty because of having a
:53:19. > :53:24.differentiated benefit system. Labour Party must have a welfare
:53:24. > :53:27.reform policy by the next election. Absolutely. There are two things
:53:27. > :53:31.that are missing from this discussion. The best way to cut the
:53:31. > :53:35.welfare bill is to get people into work and stimulate the economy into
:53:35. > :53:41.creating jobs. The good way to do that, and take people out of the
:53:41. > :53:45.welfare system, is to make work pay. A huge number of the people that
:53:45. > :53:48.are being talked about art in it, receiving tax credits, will be
:53:48. > :53:52.receiving the universal credit because work, quite simply, does
:53:52. > :53:56.not pay. That has been a problem for a government minister as long
:53:56. > :54:01.as I had been covering politics. Is there traction him what you have
:54:01. > :54:05.been saying in the Conservative Party? People realise we are in
:54:05. > :54:11.desperate economic times are we must realise this is unsustainable
:54:11. > :54:19.and must move with the times. -- and we must realise. This is for
:54:19. > :54:23.the future. We must look at the future. It is the start of a great
:54:23. > :54:26.debate. Get out the turkey, get in front of the telly. No, we're not a
:54:26. > :54:35.month early for Christmas, today our American cousins are
:54:35. > :54:38.celebrating Thanksgiving. It is a great holiday. One thing Barack
:54:38. > :54:41.Obama will be feeling especially thankful for is his campaign's top
:54:41. > :54:43.notch private polling operation. It is widely credited with giving him
:54:43. > :54:48.a mathematical edge over Mitt Romney in last month's presidential
:54:48. > :54:54.And it's left Republican pollsters scratching their heads over how
:54:54. > :55:04.they managed to get their numbers so wrong. Adam's been meeting one
:55:04. > :55:06.
:55:06. > :55:11.of them, Fox News favourite Frank Luntz. He has the immediate
:55:11. > :55:19.reaction. We have some of the most important people in America seated
:55:19. > :55:23.right here. For a glance has made his name folks sing -- filming
:55:23. > :55:30.televised focus groups. He said Mitt Romney would triumph in the
:55:30. > :55:34.popular vote. Barack Obama has empathy and Mitt Romney does not.
:55:34. > :55:38.He came across as a no-nonsense businessman that he did not
:55:38. > :55:44.understand the challenges. Barack Obama may not have been able to fix
:55:44. > :55:47.the problems but he proved he understood them. Some boffins did
:55:48. > :55:56.get the result right. The Republican polling establish what
:55:56. > :56:01.was also universally wrong. Why? establishment. You have to work out
:56:01. > :56:04.who will vote. Those that are supported Barack Obama turned out a
:56:04. > :56:13.much higher numbers than anyone expected. It is not just judging
:56:13. > :56:17.what people think, it is judging the intensity - the passion - the
:56:17. > :56:23.commitment of that thought. There are lessons for the pollsters but
:56:23. > :56:29.also for the politicians. Number one, whoever defines first wins the
:56:29. > :56:35.election. Number two, if you don't have a positive, proactive
:56:35. > :56:38.visionary approach, they will not vote for you. There is no not
:56:38. > :56:42.candidate X. They have to vote for someone and not just against
:56:42. > :56:52.someone. Their third is knowing who will they do making sure it will
:56:52. > :56:56.
:56:56. > :57:03.supporters actually participate. -- the third is knowing who they will
:57:03. > :57:08.vote for. It is about understanding good difficult challenges of hard-
:57:08. > :57:13.working people. The challenge for Labour is not just to be critical.
:57:13. > :57:20.Critics don't just get votes, they need a positive alternative. The
:57:20. > :57:26.plan for the Lib Dems is to be relevant. You cannot win people
:57:27. > :57:31.over amnesty to something that is distinctive. You wrote the last
:57:31. > :57:36.Conservative manifesto. I bet the next one is pretty different.
:57:36. > :57:40.might not have so much in it. not think you will have a big
:57:40. > :57:45.society and I do not think you will be saying vote Ploo, go green. What
:57:45. > :57:49.do you think the thrust of it should be? We heard in the
:57:49. > :57:54.conference speech this year, deficit, welfare schools. Those of
:57:54. > :57:58.the big issues for him. He thinks layback are on the wrong side of
:57:58. > :58:03.all of those issues. That is what and see the manifesto been built
:58:03. > :58:07.around. They have a mountain to climb. Mr Obama could lose lots of
:58:07. > :58:15.votes and still win that your party has to gain a lot of votes. I do
:58:15. > :58:20.not think that has been turned by a sitting Prime Minister since 1955.
:58:20. > :58:27.Possibly. -- has been done. Two things give me confidence. The
:58:27. > :58:30.Prime Minister identifying strivers. It took a while. And Disraeli. And
:58:30. > :58:35.Blair indeed. What the Obama victory shows, is the campaign he
:58:35. > :58:39.would like to fight, Britain is on the bike track, do not turn back,
:58:39. > :58:44.can That's all for today. Thanks to our guests. The One O'clock News is
:58:44. > :58:46.starting over on BBC One now. And I will be back here tonight for This
:58:46. > :58:50.Week with Anne Atkins talking women bishops, Richard Bacon on gossip
:58:50. > :58:53.and Ann Leslie looking back over the news of the week. So join me,
:58:53. > :58:57.Michael Portillo and Alan Johnson at 11:35am on BBC1. And I'll be