:00:53. > :00:56.Afternoon, folks. Welcome to the Daily Politics. It really is bleak
:00:56. > :00:59.mid-winter. And don't expect any jingle bells until 2018. George
:00:59. > :01:02.Osborne says austerity is now here to stay until 2018. That's getting
:01:02. > :01:05.close to a lost decade. And it includes some cold, hard medicine
:01:05. > :01:10.to swallow on taxes and benefits. We'll be asking, is Britain really
:01:10. > :01:13.still a AAA bet? Amid all the gloom, the Chancellor gave his strong
:01:13. > :01:17.backing for fracking. But is shale gas the answer to all our energy
:01:17. > :01:20.problems? Environmentalists aren't so sure. What's the point of
:01:20. > :01:26.reshuffles? A parliamentary committee has been asking just that
:01:26. > :01:34.question. Apart from keeping the Daily Politics in work, do they
:01:35. > :01:39.actually achieve anything? And, hark, the MPs sing! Here's a
:01:39. > :01:45.Parliamentary Ding Dong Merrily on High you just can't afford to miss.
:01:45. > :01:48.Yes. All that and more coming up in the next hour of public service
:01:48. > :01:51.broadcasting at its austerity best. I think you'll find that this
:01:51. > :02:01.programme's AAA status is not under threat. But then we never had one
:02:01. > :02:02.
:02:02. > :02:04.in the first place. And with us we have the A Team. From Labour, we're
:02:05. > :02:06.blessed by their Treasury spokesman, Chris Leslie, and from the Liberal
:02:07. > :02:14.Democrats, Stephen Williams, who chairs his party's backbench
:02:14. > :02:17.Treasury Committee. And the Tory? There is no one. They could not
:02:18. > :02:27.give as anyone for the top of the programme but they promised one
:02:28. > :02:30.
:02:30. > :02:33.will come later in the show. We can hardly wait. Now, first this
:02:33. > :02:36.morning, let's briefly talk about the West Coast Mainline, because
:02:36. > :02:40.Virgin Trains has been confirmed as the operator of the West Coast main
:02:40. > :02:42.line for the next two years. The company had lost the franchise to a
:02:42. > :02:50.rival but the bidding process was scrapped after serious flaws were
:02:50. > :02:54.found in the system. The transport secretary asked Sam Laidlaw to
:02:54. > :02:59.produce a report on the process and today he gave his response. I do
:02:59. > :03:04.not hide from the seriousness of his findings. They make extremely
:03:04. > :03:10.uncomfortable reading. They caused serious problems for the bidding
:03:10. > :03:13.firms, including first group. They must and will be acted upon. The
:03:13. > :03:18.department will ensure that all future franchise competitions are
:03:18. > :03:24.delivered with a clear timeline, rigorous management and the right
:03:24. > :03:30.quality assurance. We shall also create a simpler and clearer
:03:30. > :03:36.structure for rail franchise competitions. They announced a two-
:03:36. > :03:41.year contract with no competition goes to Virgin. It is that fair?
:03:41. > :03:48.suppose they have no choice. Someone has to run the trains. I'm
:03:48. > :03:52.not sure what they could have done. how much they have been paid in
:03:52. > :03:59.order to continue that process. fare money is going to the tax
:03:59. > :04:04.payer and not virgin. What tax payers will be worried about is the
:04:05. > :04:10.cost of the problems over the bid. Can we really afford that kind of
:04:10. > :04:14.mistake? I hope someone will be accountable, whether ministers or
:04:14. > :04:19.officials in the Department of Transport. Someone has to be held
:04:19. > :04:25.to account. It has had a knock on effect in other parts of the
:04:25. > :04:28.country. I represent Bristol. Our franchise is up for renewal. That
:04:28. > :04:35.has been stalled while the Department looks at the whole
:04:35. > :04:42.franchise programme. There is great uncertainty. He deplane? Much is
:04:43. > :04:48.made of the civil servants. -- who do you blame? The that is why we
:04:48. > :04:53.need someone else to look into it. I'm not chairing a particular
:04:53. > :05:00.inquiry. I do want to buy Dec who is to blame. Someone needs to hold
:05:00. > :05:06.their hands up. No one ever seems to hold their hands up these days.
:05:06. > :05:11.I want to ask you about the Labour policy and whether they will
:05:11. > :05:17.nationalise the railways. Ministers decided to change the franchise
:05:17. > :05:22.policy. Do you think ministers should hold their hands up? It is a
:05:22. > :05:26.different team of ministers since the decision was made. Maybe the
:05:26. > :05:30.ministers who made that decision should appear before the relevant
:05:30. > :05:39.parliamentary committee and a camp for themselves. Her eye it agreed
:05:39. > :05:43.with that. -- and account for themselves. I do agree with that.
:05:43. > :05:49.You have Theresa Villiers and Justine Greening. The extent to
:05:49. > :05:56.which they were involved in this massive cock-up, witches Of
:05:56. > :06:01.phenomenal cost to the tax payer. We need to hear from them as well.
:06:01. > :06:06.Nationalisation or not? There are no plans to do that but we need to
:06:06. > :06:12.get a grip of the situation. We have seen what has happened in the
:06:12. > :06:17.past with the East Coast main line. We need to squeeze every pound of
:06:17. > :06:22.tax payers money. Back to the economy and the fall-out from
:06:22. > :06:32.yesterday's Autumn Statement. Let's turn without further ado from that.
:06:32. > :06:33.
:06:33. > :06:37.It felt more like a winter statement. Jo has the economic low-
:06:37. > :06:39.down. Yes, Andrew. The OBR downgraded its forecasts for
:06:39. > :06:43.economic growth. They now think that the economy will shrink by
:06:43. > :06:46.0.1% this year with only modest growth of 1.2% next year. Then 2%,
:06:46. > :06:54.2.3% and 2.7%. On borrowing, there was one bit of positive news for
:06:54. > :06:58.year than it was last year. But, ignoring special one-off factors,
:06:58. > :07:00.they now think the country will have to borrow more than they did
:07:00. > :07:03.when they published their last forecast in March. �120 billion
:07:03. > :07:07.this financial year, falling to 112 billion next year, and then lower
:07:07. > :07:11.again in each subsequent year. And, on debt, the OBR says the
:07:11. > :07:18.Chancellor will miss his target of having net debt, as a share of GDP
:07:18. > :07:23.falling by the end of this Parliament. It will peak in 2015/16
:07:23. > :07:33.at 79.9% and will only start falling in the following year. That
:07:33. > :07:36.
:07:36. > :07:41.has led the Fitch ratings agency to The credit rating is important, as
:07:41. > :07:46.is the market. That matters because, if you do not have credibility -
:07:46. > :07:50.you cannot show the world you can pay your way - interest rates go up
:07:51. > :07:55.for the Government and taxpayers have to pay more to fund the debt.
:07:55. > :07:59.Interest rates in the economy go up, as do mortgage rates. One thing we
:07:59. > :08:04.have been able to do as a government is keep those rates very
:08:04. > :08:09.low because the world has confidence in us. Of course you
:08:09. > :08:14.need to have tax rises and spending restraints. If you do that too
:08:14. > :08:20.quickly, it will backfire. What we learned yesterday was our economy
:08:20. > :08:25.has contracted this year. It has not grown at will. George Osborne
:08:25. > :08:29.is borrowing more. The national debt is going up. His plan has
:08:29. > :08:32.failed. I think if you are in a deep hole, you should stop digging.
:08:32. > :08:35.Well, joining us from College Green, are two of Britain biggest economic
:08:35. > :08:45.brains - Larry Elliott from the Guardian and City AM's editor,
:08:45. > :08:53.
:08:53. > :09:00.Will Britain lose its AAA rating? Does it matter? Let's take these as
:09:00. > :09:04.two separate questions. We could be going back into a dip in the 4th
:09:05. > :09:11.quarter. That will be the time we will probably lose our AAA rating.
:09:11. > :09:16.I think probably early next year. There is a good chance we could see
:09:17. > :09:21.a double-dip recession. The economy could shrink again. There are two
:09:21. > :09:28.or three really important factors. The OBR forecast for growth in the
:09:28. > :09:32.next four, five years are too optimistic. There will be a
:09:32. > :09:38.resurgence -- it is based on a resurgence of gross but I think
:09:38. > :09:44.that is wrong. If my forecast is right, the national debt will be
:09:44. > :09:50.even higher and deficits even higher. We are bound to eventually
:09:50. > :09:53.you -- you lose the credit rating. Without the Bank of England pushing
:09:53. > :09:58.down artificially the cost of government borrowing, the debt
:09:58. > :10:03.would be much higher and much higher in the years ahead. It is
:10:03. > :10:13.quantitative easing that has saved the AAA rating up until now. That
:10:13. > :10:13.
:10:13. > :10:19.will not go on for ever. I think we will lose it. What is your for you?
:10:19. > :10:23.I think there is a very good chance we will. -- ate your views. George
:10:23. > :10:28.Osborne said he would get the economy growing. He said he would
:10:28. > :10:34.get on top of Britain's debts and he would safeguard the AAA rating.
:10:34. > :10:38.He has failed on the first two. The economy has flat lined and a
:10:38. > :10:43.deficit reduction programme is of course. Yesterday's figures showed
:10:43. > :10:53.only 50% of it well. The third element, maintaining the AAA rating
:10:53. > :10:59.- he is hanging on to that by the merest of threads. Prospects for
:10:59. > :11:03.the economy are quite bleak. Does it matter if we lose the AAA
:11:03. > :11:08.rating? I would suggest that France has lost it and it still seems to
:11:08. > :11:14.be there. America has lost its rating and is financing its debt.
:11:14. > :11:19.Does it matter? I do not think it matters any more. Credit agencies
:11:19. > :11:24.have been discredited in recent years. I do not think it matters to
:11:24. > :11:30.match. It matters psychologically and shows the Chancellor has failed
:11:30. > :11:35.to get control of public finances. We need to go through a wasted
:11:35. > :11:38.decade when it comes to growth. I do not think it was inevitable. The
:11:38. > :11:43.Chancellor could have booked through policies to really
:11:43. > :11:49.transform the economy and boost competitiveness. Unfortunately,
:11:49. > :11:56.that has not happened. We still have increasing national debt and a
:11:56. > :12:02.very high government spending share of the economy. All these negative
:12:02. > :12:07.factors are tracking down gross. Also the zombie companies which are
:12:07. > :12:12.kept alive by very low interest rates and quantitative easing. The
:12:12. > :12:17.Government has not taken the right measures. The overall picture is it
:12:17. > :12:23.inherited a terrible situation from the previous government. Does it
:12:23. > :12:30.matter? If it means that interest rates go up and the value of gilts
:12:30. > :12:34.therefore goes down, that will affect banks balance sheets?
:12:34. > :12:44.think D'Arblay is the new AAA because so many other countries
:12:44. > :12:45.
:12:45. > :12:52.have been downgraded. -- AA. I do not think it matters one jot
:12:52. > :12:56.whether Britain has a AAA or AA rating. Politically, it will matter
:12:56. > :13:01.a great deal because the Chancellor has almost made this a fetish of
:13:01. > :13:05.his time at number 11. It would be a very significant blow to the
:13:05. > :13:10.Chancellor. I do not think the economic impact would be as great
:13:10. > :13:15.as people think. The Chancellor had the choice yesterday. He could have
:13:15. > :13:21.increased the austerity programme in the short-term to insure the AAA
:13:21. > :13:28.rating was met. He said, rather than raise taxes or cut spending by
:13:28. > :13:34.an additional 17 billion, which she would have had to do to bring down
:13:34. > :13:39.debt on track, it would have been total economic madness. Final
:13:39. > :13:43.question to both of you. It was a complicated autumn statement
:13:43. > :13:47.yesterday. Partly because of the jiggery-pokery about borrowing and
:13:48. > :13:51.deficits. Now you have had the night to go through the figures,
:13:51. > :14:00.what has jumped out to let you which was not immediately apparent
:14:00. > :14:06.when it was unveiled yesterday? -- jumped out at you. I am very
:14:06. > :14:10.suspicious that deficits have gone down. It has become much harder to
:14:10. > :14:14.compare it like for like. The Chancellor has fallen foul of the
:14:14. > :14:21.disease that contaminated the previous Chancellor which was due
:14:21. > :14:27.constantly change the rules. I think that is very disappointing.
:14:27. > :14:32.There is over ambitious growth forecasts. I think the forecast is
:14:32. > :14:37.wrong. Without that, you do not have the revenues and deficits.
:14:37. > :14:43.Everything collapses. You end up with much bigger problems they will
:14:43. > :14:49.realise. Constantly pushing back austerity, it used to be a seven-
:14:49. > :14:58.year programme and now is a four gear programme. That is not
:14:58. > :15:05.plausible. -- it four a year programme and now is a seven-year
:15:05. > :15:09.programme. What has jumped at it you in the light of day? Two-and-a-
:15:09. > :15:15.half years ago, George Osborne said that 92% of the recovery work on
:15:15. > :15:21.the deficit would be done in this Parliament. Today it is only 52%.
:15:21. > :15:27.There is an awful lot of pain still to come. That was not be easy to
:15:27. > :15:30.sell at the next election. In the OBR report, in their scaled down
:15:31. > :15:37.forecasts, they have pursued consumers will get into more debt
:15:37. > :15:41.over the coming years. That seems a very optimistic forecast. I think
:15:41. > :15:45.consumers are debt saturated and want to pay down their debts. The
:15:45. > :15:55.chances of consumers borrowing their way back to prosperity are
:15:55. > :16:02.
:16:02. > :16:09.With us now is the Treasury Minister, Sajid Javid. I am glad
:16:09. > :16:15.you made it. Was this a budget for growth
:16:15. > :16:20.yesterday? Yes, it was, it deals with a biggest problem, the size of
:16:20. > :16:25.its deficit. The government is still dealing with that challenge,
:16:25. > :16:30.the deficit is still coming down which is important, to keep on
:16:30. > :16:40.creating jobs. How come, the official and unofficial estimates
:16:40. > :16:41.
:16:41. > :16:48.say it will add 0.1% in 2013, another 0.1% to growth in 2014?
:16:48. > :16:55.Those forecasts, the these are our independent. They say anything done
:16:55. > :16:59.yesterday will add 0.1% to growth next year. That is a Budget for
:16:59. > :17:04.growth? It is. You have to think about the alternative. If this
:17:04. > :17:10.government didn't deal with this problem of deficit, we would lose
:17:10. > :17:18.confidence. If interest rates went up by just 1%, the average mortgage
:17:18. > :17:26.payment would go up by �1,000 per annum. But we have lost our triple-
:17:26. > :17:30.A status. You have made deficit reduction and
:17:30. > :17:38.cutting the amount of borrowing the centre of your economics - G.
:17:38. > :17:46.Absolutely. In June 2010, you told us in the five years afterwards,
:17:46. > :17:55.until 2015, you would borrowed a total of �22 billion. Do you know
:17:55. > :18:04.the figure? Now, you are going to borrowed �539 billion in these five
:18:04. > :18:14.years. That is �217 billion more than you envisage only two years
:18:14. > :18:17.
:18:17. > :18:21.ago. You are planning to borrow 67% more than you said you were
:18:21. > :18:26.borrowed 2 1/2 years ago, expect again how you're dealing with
:18:26. > :18:32.borrowing? First of all, before you can deal with a stock of debt, you
:18:32. > :18:37.have to deal with a rate of borrowing. The deficit in two years
:18:37. > :18:43.is already down and will keep falling in cash turns and as a
:18:43. > :18:49.percentage of GDP. You mentioned 2010. Let us look back. Since that
:18:49. > :18:58.time, the independent report said the assessment of the shape Britain
:18:58. > :19:04.was in has turned out to be a lot worse. The recession the country
:19:04. > :19:11.faced in 2009 was a contraction in GDP, the worst since the Second
:19:11. > :19:17.World War. An on going euro crisis. And a peak in oil prices in 2011.
:19:17. > :19:21.Britain is a global trading economy. The IMF downgraded forecasts for
:19:21. > :19:27.every single country and Britain is not exempt. However tough it is,
:19:27. > :19:33.this government is dealing with the challenges. If there was a plan by
:19:33. > :19:37.an alternative government that was going to mean even �200 billion
:19:37. > :19:43.more of borrowing, spending and debt, how would that change your
:19:43. > :19:48.numbers? You have put borrowing at the heart of your strategy. How can
:19:48. > :19:53.you credibly claim to be getting on top of borrowing when you are
:19:53. > :19:59.planning to borrow �200 billion more than you said you would 2 1/2
:19:59. > :20:05.years ago. It is out of control, five had and �39 billion you will
:20:05. > :20:13.borrow. Because we are dealing with a deficit. You need to deal with
:20:13. > :20:18.the rate. When this government came to power, that deficit was �159
:20:18. > :20:25.billion, the highest of any industrialised country. That was
:20:25. > :20:28.then, you said you would get on top of that. Instead you are borrowing
:20:28. > :20:34.over �100 billion more than Alastair Darling had said.
:20:35. > :20:39.we're getting on with cutting the rate of borrowing. A I will try one
:20:39. > :20:44.more time. I don't understand how you are cutting the rate of
:20:44. > :20:52.borrowing when you just added City 7% to the map you said you would
:20:52. > :21:01.borrow? I can explain, the deficit, the amount you borrowed every year,
:21:01. > :21:09.that was �159 billion. It was �121 billion last year. This year before
:21:09. > :21:19.cost is �108 billion. It is over �120 billion if you account on a
:21:19. > :21:22.
:21:22. > :21:27.like-for-like basis. You can selectively take what you want. The
:21:27. > :21:31.report... It shows if you take these things out. I think you're
:21:31. > :21:37.missing the point. The budget deficit is falling. That means the
:21:37. > :21:42.rate of borrowing is falling. would suggest that, given the shed
:21:42. > :21:48.loads of dosh which have been borrowed by his government, for
:21:48. > :21:53.Labour to credibly say you would borrow even more is absurd. We have
:21:53. > :21:59.got to deal with the borrowing situation. But, ultimately, the
:21:59. > :22:04.government is failing. What is the alternative? He talks about his
:22:04. > :22:09.priorities. Ours would be growth. It is a fundamental truth the
:22:09. > :22:14.government seems oblivious to, if you don't have a healthy economy
:22:14. > :22:21.generating new revenues for the Treasury, reducing welfare costs,
:22:21. > :22:27.you'll see borrowing getting higher. But, you would borrow more?
:22:27. > :22:32.debt will increase. But you would borrow more. There are certain key
:22:32. > :22:42.short-term investments necessary to stimulate the economy. We talked
:22:42. > :22:47.
:22:47. > :22:56.about for achieve revenues -- 4G. We could talk about the E E banker
:22:56. > :23:06.bonus Levy, pay restraint, which is necessary. The �3 billion giveaway
:23:06. > :23:12.
:23:12. > :23:16.to the wealthiest and people. is a propaganda tool you are using.
:23:16. > :23:24.When you look at what is happening, the Minister has made a decision
:23:24. > :23:34.about what he regards as the Ellesse dusty of taxation. --
:23:34. > :23:36.
:23:36. > :23:40.elasticity. One quick point, if you'll let me. They have been
:23:40. > :23:44.against every spending cut this government has introduced. They are
:23:44. > :23:50.against every tax rise. Somehow they think by some miracle they
:23:50. > :23:57.will balance the books. Of course we need to make adjustments. We
:23:57. > :24:00.have said topper cent. With Yorke NHS cuts, I suppose? How much is
:24:00. > :24:05.the Home Office budget going to be going down as a result of your
:24:05. > :24:12.extra borrowing? You must be glad you joined this coalition, it is
:24:12. > :24:16.going well for you!? Actually, what joins us together, there are things
:24:16. > :24:23.we disagree about, it is the central purpose of getting the
:24:24. > :24:29.country back on track. If you are comparing a forecast with actual
:24:29. > :24:35.figures. The forecast has been blown completely off course. But
:24:35. > :24:43.the actual trajectory of the budget is coming down. We are no closer to
:24:43. > :24:50.borrowing the books -- balancing the books. Are you any closer to
:24:50. > :24:57.balancing the books? Yes. Absolutely, we are. You said that
:24:57. > :25:03.the deficit would be �60 billion by 2013. That was a forecast. A You
:25:03. > :25:06.are now telling us it is �112 billion, twice as big. The nation
:25:07. > :25:16.is still borrowing less than the year before and the year before
:25:16. > :25:24.that. You can't say it is dodgy. can. Including that capital receipt
:25:24. > :25:33.from the auction which is happening next year, that is entirely normal
:25:33. > :25:42.in accounting turns. I can state a few more minutes. Let us move on,
:25:42. > :25:48.do not go away. The shall we carry on? The report
:25:48. > :25:57.says the economy will decline again in his 4th quarter. We all know
:25:57. > :26:07.that in January. The OBR can be wrong, usually more optimistic than
:26:07. > :26:11.
:26:11. > :26:17.pessimistic. If you look at what the Chancellor said in 2010, he
:26:17. > :26:21.said, he would be judged by meeting his debt reduction target by 2015.
:26:21. > :26:29.That has been abandoned. He said he would get the structural deficit
:26:29. > :26:34.into balance by 2015. That has been abandoned. He said that he would
:26:34. > :26:40.maintain our triple-A credit rating. I would suggest on the basis of
:26:40. > :26:44.history that will soon be abandoned as well. I do not agree with your
:26:44. > :26:51.overall analysis. I take your general point which is all linked
:26:51. > :26:57.to a slower rate of growth. You are surely not suggesting a government
:26:57. > :27:03.controls its growth rate. We have a huge influence on growth but we are
:27:03. > :27:09.open economy, 50% of our exports are with the EU. We are impacted by
:27:09. > :27:14.the rest of the world when they have problems. We have got to deal
:27:14. > :27:17.with the challenges we face, confront them head on. You can be
:27:17. > :27:22.like the previous government and hope everything goes away. You talk
:27:22. > :27:29.about fiddling the figures, Gordon Brown set his targets and then he
:27:29. > :27:33.came up with his own figures. learn from the best. You learned
:27:33. > :27:43.from the master. Are you challenging the independence of the
:27:43. > :27:45.
:27:45. > :27:53.OBR? I am challenging its competence. Is Chris challenging
:27:53. > :27:58.it? I don't think so. The you can ask me any question you want. Also,
:27:58. > :28:04.we have talked about the growth figures and deficit. Ordinary
:28:04. > :28:10.people what they want is jobs, over 1.2 million private sector jobs
:28:10. > :28:16.have been created in the last two years. In the last 10 years of
:28:16. > :28:23.Labour, do you know how many were created under Labour? It was about
:28:23. > :28:27.600,000. The private sector has created more jobs than Labour
:28:27. > :28:31.created in the last 10 years. wanted to ask if he was in the room
:28:31. > :28:39.with the Chancellor when he decided to look at the statistics on
:28:39. > :28:48.borrowing this year and post that revenue at 3.5 billion, to also
:28:48. > :28:56.post in the profit from the banks in public ownership, to also posed
:28:56. > :29:04.in -- poster in... Let me finish. I want to know the answer. If I would
:29:04. > :29:10.said -- it if I said I was there, it would be a fiction. This
:29:10. > :29:17.fictional meeting. Chris knows full well the OBR has to credit all the
:29:17. > :29:23.decisions made by the government. The way government gives these
:29:23. > :29:29.statistics... Are you happy that the benefits including working
:29:29. > :29:34.benefits on people below average income has, will rise at below 1%
:29:34. > :29:40.when inflation is double. And the things these people have to spend a
:29:40. > :29:47.big chunk of their income on, food, heating, will rise by a lot more
:29:47. > :29:51.than 1%, are you happy with that? Of course I am not happy with that.
:29:51. > :29:57.These are difficult things. When you go into politics, you don't
:29:57. > :30:01.think your life will been spent making easy decisions and to take
:30:01. > :30:11.difficult decisions over all in the best interests of the party --
:30:11. > :30:16.
:30:16. > :30:21.That is what the Conservative manifesto of 2010 said. The Liberal
:30:21. > :30:29.Democrat manifesto said we would have a broad tax perk for people in
:30:29. > :30:36.work. That is what the coalition government is doing. The only tax
:30:36. > :30:46.cuts Conservative support up for the very rich. Do you believe that?
:30:46. > :30:49.
:30:49. > :30:54.We thought the tax cut for Middle Britain was the way forward.
:30:54. > :30:57.that would you believe? That is what a lot of his colleagues would
:30:57. > :31:02.still like us to believe. Because they're not in a coalition, they
:31:02. > :31:12.cannot do it. I do not own whose name the press release was issued
:31:12. > :31:13.
:31:13. > :31:19.in. It was actually issued as a mistake. It had to be withdrawn.
:31:19. > :31:28.Why will Labour not tell us whether they will support a 1% rise in
:31:28. > :31:37.uprating of benefits? We have not seen the bill yet. Hold your
:31:37. > :31:42.horses! When you look at what the Chancellor is doing, it is a
:31:42. > :31:50.political trick. He is trying to say that Labour tradition a cares
:31:51. > :31:56.about the poorest in society. -- traditionally carers. They are
:31:56. > :32:04.going to say, how do you feel about real-terms cuts? You must vote
:32:04. > :32:08.against it. I have a very bitter taste in my mouth. You must vote
:32:08. > :32:16.against it. How can you be called the Labour Party and vote for
:32:16. > :32:22.something like that? I accept it is very distasteful, what they are
:32:22. > :32:27.doing. Excuse me. We have already done what they are doing. If it is
:32:27. > :32:33.that distasteful, will you vote against it? If we see the bill, we
:32:33. > :32:43.will vote against it. Can I ask about what is in the Bill? We have
:32:43. > :32:49.
:32:49. > :32:59.run out of time. We have run out of time. Next time I'll get you the
:32:59. > :33:01.proper press release. Some Prime Ministers use reshuffles all the
:33:01. > :33:04.time to shake things up. The politics of promotion and demotion
:33:04. > :33:07.can cause big problems though, perhaps, that is why David Cameron
:33:07. > :33:09.held off for more than a year before moving his ministers around.
:33:09. > :33:12.Today, the Political and Constitutional Reform Committee are
:33:12. > :33:15.asking how effective reshuffles actually are. In a moment, we will
:33:15. > :33:24.be hearing from Chris Mullin, who has been giving evidence. But,
:33:24. > :33:34.first, here's a flavour of the wonderful world of reshuffles.
:33:34. > :33:50.
:33:50. > :34:00.morning. Are you ready for a new Music Sign O, the hokey pokey. -- #
:34:00. > :34:10.
:34:10. > :34:15.Good to be back, Mr Mandelson? Third time lucky. A lovely day for
:34:15. > :34:25.a walk around Whitehall. I am honoured and very much rigging
:34:25. > :34:27.
:34:27. > :34:35.forward to getting on with the job. And the former Labour MP, Chris
:34:35. > :34:41.Mullin, is with us now. What is the point of reshuffles? There are too
:34:41. > :34:48.many of them. I was the 6th African minister. There were nine in 13
:34:48. > :34:50.years. There were 13 Europe ministers. There were eight Work
:34:51. > :34:55.and Pensions Secretary has been 10 years. That is quite a complex
:34:55. > :35:01.subject to get your head around. Health and education has been
:35:01. > :35:07.turned inside out on an annual, biannual basis. It is not good for
:35:07. > :35:11.government. In terms of policy, if you are looking for consistency and
:35:11. > :35:15.stability, the figures you have just reeled off, you get neither.
:35:15. > :35:19.It is destabilising and demoralising for those concerned.
:35:19. > :35:23.The present government has been more sensible. I have only met the
:35:23. > :35:31.Prime Minister once since I left Parliament, about six months after
:35:31. > :35:37.the election. There is only one piece of advice I would offer due -
:35:37. > :35:45.the Prime Minister - and that was not to have annual reshuffles. He
:35:45. > :35:49.waited two years to have his first reshuffle. Let's welcome viewers
:35:49. > :35:55.from Scotland who have just joined the Daily Politics. They are
:35:55. > :36:00.talking about reshuffles. When reshuffles happen, it is not
:36:00. > :36:04.because there is a change of policy, it is usually because it is forced
:36:04. > :36:09.upon prime ministers politically - either someone has done something
:36:09. > :36:17.and you have to get rid of them and that forces a reshuffle. Do you
:36:17. > :36:20.think it is forced upon a leader? Sometimes it is. An individual
:36:20. > :36:27.Secretary of State gets himself into trouble, like Liam Fox, and a
:36:27. > :36:33.mini reshuffle has to be held. You do not have to throw all the pieces
:36:33. > :36:40.into the air and sea where they land. Unfortunately, in recent
:36:40. > :36:49.years, they have got into the habit of annual reshuffles. The media
:36:49. > :36:53.stars to speculate months and weeks in advance. What is that like for
:36:53. > :36:57.ministers' careers? There is lots of briefing about who will go and
:36:57. > :37:02.unbearably it does not happen the way the press predicts. How
:37:02. > :37:07.destabilising is that? Very destabilising. If you are presiding
:37:07. > :37:11.over a big department, you need to get to know the subject. If you are
:37:11. > :37:18.only going to be there the year, you have just reached a point where
:37:18. > :37:23.you might be useful when the man in Downing Street says, you are gone.
:37:23. > :37:27.Often the department has to start all over again. That seems
:37:27. > :37:32.ridiculous. There are subjects which are pretty difficult and the
:37:32. > :37:39.Treasury is one of them - getting a head around all those figures. We
:37:39. > :37:49.do say people should stay for at least two of to three years? I was
:37:49. > :37:54.first reshuffled 11 years again. -- ago. I was told to walk up Downing
:37:54. > :38:00.Street. I went into the office of Tony Blair. He was doing the
:38:00. > :38:06.reshuffle. By the time he had got to the junior level, he said, I
:38:06. > :38:14.would like you to go to the Cabinet Office. I said, thank you very much,
:38:14. > :38:19.Prime Minister. He said, actually... I said to him, everyone will say
:38:19. > :38:25.that, when they? He said, you are one of the only people who has said
:38:25. > :38:30.they will take what they are given. People do actually argue with the
:38:30. > :38:38.Prime Minister as he is trying to grapple with his dozens of
:38:38. > :38:42.appointments. It shows that prime ministers are either week when
:38:42. > :38:45.giving news they do not want to here or there are ministers who
:38:45. > :38:50.fight their corners. There were reports that Iain Duncan-Smith did
:38:50. > :38:56.not want to move when the Prime Minister wanted him to move. Is it
:38:56. > :39:01.hard to tell colleagues they are out? I think Tony Blair got quite
:39:01. > :39:06.experienced at it. He used the phrase, Surrey, Chris, I am going
:39:07. > :39:12.to have to let you go. I'm sure he said that to everyone. I actually
:39:12. > :39:19.turned down my first offer. He said, it is only for a few months and
:39:19. > :39:25.then I will find you something more in the Home Office of Foreign
:39:26. > :39:29.Office. I fell for that. Do you think it would be better if people
:39:29. > :39:35.were experts? In other countries, you do need some expertise before
:39:35. > :39:39.you take on health or education. Do you think there should be a level
:39:39. > :39:45.of qualification before you are given a ministerial post?
:39:45. > :39:49.painful lesson we have all learnt is it is not a meritocracy. It
:39:49. > :39:56.depends how friendly you are with your party leader as to whether he
:39:56. > :40:00.picks up the phone or not. I do not think the Prime Minister goes
:40:00. > :40:04.through everyone's CVs and says, this person has done this and
:40:04. > :40:08.spoken on that while in opposition and they should go there. That is
:40:08. > :40:11.how business with work but not politics. With the Liberal
:40:11. > :40:21.Democrats come up we have fiftysomething. They are turning
:40:21. > :40:26.them all through. Everyone gets a go. That is probably good for
:40:26. > :40:36.pensions, it is it not? I am afraid at this point we have to reshuffle
:40:36. > :40:38.
:40:38. > :40:45.you out of the studio. It has happened the fog but I will come
:40:45. > :40:50.back. -- happened before. He went in to resign and David Cameron said,
:40:51. > :40:59.you're doing a great job, thank you for coming to seamy and he walked
:40:59. > :41:09.out. I said to Tony Blair, he said, we are not very good at this, are
:41:09. > :41:11.
:41:11. > :41:21.we? I thought, who is the week? Some good news, energy giants have
:41:21. > :41:28.
:41:28. > :41:31.found a cheap ways of supplying electricity. A nice big fracking
:41:31. > :41:34.plant might well be coming to a town, village or slice of green and
:41:34. > :41:37.pleasant land near you. I can hardly wait. Giles has been to
:41:37. > :41:41.visit a village who are a little less pleased. Underneath the arches,
:41:41. > :41:44.a dream of gas is under way. Not far from this viaduct, near the
:41:44. > :41:46.village of Balcombe in Sussex, there happens to be a 20-year-old
:41:46. > :41:49.oil drill shaft, which drilling company Cuadrilla has planning
:41:49. > :41:52.permission until September next year, to survey for shale gas and a
:41:52. > :41:55.test frack. To nearly all the residents of Balcombe, that does
:41:55. > :41:57.not smell right. It is not so much that this Sussex village is sitting
:41:58. > :42:01.on a goldmine of shale gas. That is what the drilling company wants to
:42:01. > :42:09.find out. The community has had to come to an opinion about a fairly
:42:09. > :42:12.new process that many others know The process involves underground
:42:12. > :42:15.explosive fracturing of rock strata and, if suitable gas pockets are
:42:15. > :42:18.there, driving that gas out, by pumping water in, lots of water.
:42:18. > :42:23.What has sent shockwaves through this village is, when it was tried
:42:23. > :42:28.in Blackpool last year, it caused two earthquakes. The Government
:42:28. > :42:36.halted test fracks as a result. Now they seem keen to lift that ban.
:42:36. > :42:42.Balcombe is worried. The increased risk of pollution, the increased
:42:42. > :42:46.risk of traffic which were becoming past my house. The risk to the
:42:46. > :42:51.environment. The risk of earth tremors. Generally, I am very
:42:51. > :42:56.concerned about it as a whole. in the US, shale gas extraction is
:42:57. > :43:03.transforming their energy dynamic. The UK Government may want the same.
:43:03. > :43:07.We are not America. We are a watery country. Just to have something
:43:07. > :43:16.like fracking, it seems that a last resort for the Government to go
:43:16. > :43:19.ahead with this. I cannot believe we have not be searched any other
:43:19. > :43:22.alternatives. -- researched. Balcombe is a blooming traditional
:43:22. > :43:26.English country village. You would be forgiven for thinking they would
:43:26. > :43:30.be upset if you asked to build anything near - or under them.
:43:30. > :43:34.is an issue that affects the whole of the UK. People do not realise
:43:34. > :43:37.how serious a problem this is. Cuadrilla say Balcombe should not
:43:37. > :43:44.flap. Their focus in on Lancashire and have no current plans to test
:43:45. > :43:48.frack. Balcombe stresses the liquid nature of the word current. And, as
:43:48. > :43:51.other areas may well be perched on shale beds, they seem to have built
:43:51. > :43:58.a platform as campaigners not against a development but a whole
:43:58. > :44:05.technology. I really pity people in other countries. They have had
:44:05. > :44:09.lives ruined. Whatever engineers and geologists say, some have these
:44:09. > :44:15.companies are ruining people's lives. Are you prefer that not to
:44:15. > :44:18.happen in the UK. -- I would prefer. For those in Balcombe, and nearby,
:44:18. > :44:21.the hunt for cheaper gas is a bridge too far. Joining me now is
:44:21. > :44:31.the Green Party MP, Caroline Lucas, and Dan Lewis, who is energy
:44:31. > :44:41.adviser for the Institute of Can we go back to the big picture,
:44:41. > :44:47.
:44:47. > :44:53.we import 49% of our gas, forecast to rise up to send the cent. -- 70%.
:44:53. > :44:59.The nuclear programme is off to a very slow start. We needed to buy a
:44:59. > :45:04.lot of gas. Do we actually wanted to buy it at a premium from abroad,
:45:04. > :45:10.or exploit our own revenues, get some tax revenues and regional
:45:10. > :45:18.development opportunities? It is posing the wrong dilemma. If we go
:45:18. > :45:25.down another dash for gas, we will see higher energy bills, we all
:45:25. > :45:30.seek our climate emission reduction targets busted. The actual question
:45:30. > :45:35.is whether we go for a big investment in offshore wind, or gas.
:45:35. > :45:43.A report this week showed if you went down the offshore wind route,
:45:43. > :45:50.we would get 70,000 more jobs, look -- we would have lower fuel bills,
:45:50. > :45:55.and emissions. Why has the dash for gas not resulted in higher prices
:45:55. > :46:00.in the United States, they are now a third of Europe's? They let me
:46:00. > :46:10.correct one thing, George Osborne is making up facts as he goes along.
:46:10. > :46:16.It is not the gas -- not the case, gas prices have doubled in the US.
:46:16. > :46:20.Not natural gas prices. Yes, they have. They are falling in the
:46:20. > :46:30.United States, I promise you. That is why industries are relocating
:46:30. > :46:35.there. If you listen to the chief executive of Bloomberg, he is
:46:35. > :46:40.saying gas prices have come down. Irrespective of that, in the UK, it
:46:40. > :46:45.is the case a big investment in offshore wind would get our bills
:46:46. > :46:50.done much more effectively without the negative side effects. Can we
:46:50. > :46:57.really import what has happened in the United States? If you take
:46:57. > :47:04.North Dakota where one of the big shell gas fields are, if you look
:47:04. > :47:09.at North Dakota, it has 10 people per square mile. In England, 1,000
:47:09. > :47:17.people per square mile, often more. Can you really do in this small
:47:17. > :47:22.island what they have done in a Continent? We are not going to do
:47:22. > :47:28.anything on the same scale. On natural gas prices, it depends on
:47:28. > :47:33.your starting point. Prices four years ago were the same as the UK.
:47:33. > :47:37.They Arnaud three times lower. The starting point which Caroline chose
:47:37. > :47:47.at the beginning of the year, they have doubled, but they are still
:47:47. > :47:47.
:47:47. > :47:53.three times lower than here. cannot try to compare the US price
:47:53. > :47:59.system two hours. We need to look at prices in the UK. If you look at
:47:59. > :48:06.our overall energy bills, gas is driving up bills which is why they
:48:06. > :48:11.are so expensive. Not just me, CBI, a butcher bank, they are all say it.
:48:11. > :48:17.If I could come back on that, we need to do the same thing as
:48:17. > :48:25.America were in large amount of Shell Gas is de coupled from
:48:25. > :48:29.natural gas and oil prices. what about climate change, we are
:48:29. > :48:36.forgetting this, we will bust our legally binding emission reduction
:48:36. > :48:45.target. It doesn't matter what is happening in America. The UK has
:48:45. > :48:49.legislation. Let us concentrate on the UK. The committee on climate
:48:49. > :48:58.change cut abruptly said if we go down this route we will not meet
:48:58. > :49:04.the targets in our legally blinding -- binding legislation. My response
:49:04. > :49:12.is to get the moratorium lifted and find out more. A serious point is
:49:12. > :49:22.this is an economy in trouble. Incidentally, you are going to have
:49:22. > :49:22.
:49:22. > :49:26.used yelled -- going to have to use a shell gas... We are going to have
:49:26. > :49:36.to go. Thank you very much for that. I have never felt more redundant in
:49:36. > :49:41.
:49:41. > :49:46.my life. The Chancellor has got this shale
:49:46. > :49:52.gas bit between his teeth. He really thinks this is important.
:49:52. > :49:57.And he has overcome the objections of the Liberal Democrats, am I
:49:57. > :50:05.right? I think he has. It was interesting to hear this debate
:50:05. > :50:09.that went on. We needed to get away from just focusing on just what
:50:09. > :50:15.alternative energy is. Wind energy plays an important role but if we
:50:15. > :50:23.have a supply of gas using the new technology available, to use our
:50:23. > :50:31.own resources, to try and bring down the price of gas,... So you
:50:31. > :50:36.are in favour? I am, yes. And your party lost the argument? A over
:50:36. > :50:46.wind, there has been an argument between the Secretary of State and
:50:46. > :50:50.Ed Davey and his junior David -- junior minister. But, you hit the
:50:50. > :50:55.nail on the head by saying we need to be wary of fracking. In North
:50:55. > :51:00.Dakota, there is plenty of land where you can risk perhaps
:51:00. > :51:08.contaminating the water table. In Cumbria, you would have to be very
:51:08. > :51:14.careful. There will be lots of protests.
:51:15. > :51:19.Does Labour have a policy on Shell Gas? We recognise we always have
:51:19. > :51:26.some gas in the mix. You have to try to grow the renewable side of
:51:26. > :51:32.things, we were disappointed they dropped that target... Are you on
:51:32. > :51:39.fracking? There are safeguards, the toxicity of Chemicals plant into
:51:39. > :51:44.the ground, watching the water table, model train what happens. It
:51:44. > :51:52.will cause structural change to the earth beneath. With proper
:51:52. > :51:55.safeguards, which should go without saying. You would be in favour?
:51:55. > :52:01.safeguards are a critical point. We need at least a year to measure
:52:01. > :52:11.what is happening in the ground before obtaining a licence for
:52:11. > :52:11.
:52:11. > :52:16.fracking. A report did say that this was a red herring. 125,000
:52:16. > :52:23.fracks in the United States last year. The environmental protection
:52:23. > :52:26.agency says that not one has contaminated the ground water.
:52:26. > :52:35.we have our own environmental standards which I would hope are
:52:35. > :52:39.quite high. Now, enough of the doom and gloom. Let's have a little bit
:52:39. > :52:44.of Christmas cheer. Because, last night, there were lords a leaping,
:52:44. > :52:47.and some melodic sounding MPs. Yes, Parliament's Got Talent, you know!
:52:47. > :52:50.But don't worry, they're not gearing up for the next reality TV
:52:50. > :52:54.show. The Parliament Choir, yes, Parliament has a choir, has been
:52:54. > :53:04.singing its heart out at its annual carol service. And we sent Susana
:53:04. > :53:04.
:53:04. > :53:13.to St John's Smith Square to see if they were any good. # Ding Dong
:53:13. > :53:20.merrily on high. Recognised them? These are parliamentarians united
:53:20. > :53:29.in song, with a conductor as chief whip. We are under the control of
:53:29. > :53:35.the conductor. Her there is a great deal of solidarity about what we do.
:53:35. > :53:40.They come from all sides of the political spectrum, about one third
:53:40. > :53:46.are at MPs and peers. A time of year when they like to get into the
:53:46. > :53:50.Christmas spirit. 12 years since the choir started, it can pull in a
:53:50. > :54:00.decent crowd. If we have come a long way from the
:54:00. > :54:03.
:54:03. > :54:10.days when we used to basket with a few mince pies. -- busk it. I am
:54:10. > :54:15.doing a duet with a Tory! Bernard Jenkins. That is a bit weird. It is
:54:15. > :54:21.quite nice. The thing about music is it just brings everybody
:54:21. > :54:25.together, and lifts everybody's soul, however bad your day, however
:54:26. > :54:30.angry you feel about the Chancellor's Budget, this is an
:54:30. > :54:40.occasion to saying, to enjoy, to the Christmas tree. Come on then,
:54:40. > :54:45.give us a song. A contender. But who is the best sinner? Bernard
:54:45. > :54:50.Jenkins has a fantastic Boyce, we all turned around to listen to him.
:54:50. > :54:56.He is a member of her own party, is buried party-political reason?
:54:56. > :55:03.is simply perhaps more rehearsed. Time for the scores now. A I would
:55:04. > :55:13.probably give Bernard nine out of 10, he is pretty good.
:55:14. > :55:15.
:55:15. > :55:25.Carol line is a very strong sinner. -- singer.
:55:25. > :55:32.Lord german? He leads the choir so I had better give him eight! Let us
:55:32. > :55:37.hear him then? You know the words but I am going to sing the third
:55:37. > :55:47.first and I did remember the words. A likely tale. Here is the real
:55:47. > :55:56.
:55:56. > :56:03.thing. Doesn't it make you want to roast a chestnut!
:56:03. > :56:09.We're joined now by Alexander L'Estrange, who is a choir master!
:56:09. > :56:14.Do you think they are any good? sounded pretty nice, what did you
:56:14. > :56:24.think? I thought they surprisingly sounded quite good. What would you
:56:24. > :56:26.
:56:26. > :56:33.give them? Some definite sevens. Would you like to have a go
:56:33. > :56:41.conducting them? It would be a lot of fun. Which of the individuals
:56:41. > :56:51.did you like the best in turns of their voice? I rather liked Lord
:56:51. > :56:57.
:56:57. > :57:07.German. Our Ranya view in this quiet? -- Are any of you in this
:57:07. > :57:16.
:57:16. > :57:20.choir? Then I was in my school choir. Her
:57:20. > :57:25.you were talking about your colleague, Bernard Jenkins, who has
:57:25. > :57:32.a lovely voice. He has an excellent voice. His sister was a
:57:32. > :57:39.professional singer. Bernard was a constituent of mine for a while. He
:57:39. > :57:44.certainly has a great voice. I thought David was excellent as well.
:57:44. > :57:49.For could this be the key to more cross-party harmony if they sang
:57:49. > :57:59.together more regularly. Music is a metaphor for politics and everyone
:57:59. > :58:09.coming together. Singing in community choirs is great. Lots are
:58:09. > :58:10.
:58:10. > :58:20.doing stuff they are learning by beer -- ear.
:58:20. > :58:27.
:58:27. > :58:31.You could put the Autumn Statement to music! A bleak midwinter!
:58:31. > :58:36.Thank you very much. That's all for today. Thanks to our
:58:36. > :58:39.guests. The one o'clock news is starting over on BBC One now. I am
:58:39. > :58:41.on, after Question Time, talking about the royal baby, and social
:58:41. > :58:44.mobility, with Tony Parsons. Discussing reinvention with