:00:42. > :00:46.Afternoon, folks. Welcome to the Daily Politics. The programme for
:00:46. > :00:55.those of you who could not find Yorke remote-controlled and could
:00:55. > :00:58.not go to BBC One for the tennis. The UK economy shrank again towards
:00:58. > :01:00.the end of last year, and stagnated overall in 2012. Chancellor George
:01:00. > :01:03.Osborne has presided over yet another dip in economic growth. At
:01:03. > :01:12.minus 0.3%, it's even worse than expected for the final quarter of
:01:12. > :01:15.last year. But it's not my fault, guv! Deputy Prime Minister Nick
:01:15. > :01:19.Clegg now says the Coalition cut public investment too hard and too
:01:19. > :01:23.fast. Boris tells George to stop talking up austerity, and even the
:01:23. > :01:26.IMF says it's time to ease up. But will the government really change
:01:26. > :01:30.course? Would allowing 16 year-olds the right to vote help bring
:01:30. > :01:32.Parliament into the 21st Century? Or is this, as one MP put it
:01:32. > :01:42.yesterday, simply a 'pathetic attempt' by his colleagues to look
:01:42. > :01:58.
:01:58. > :02:02.'trendy in their constituencies'? All that in the next hour or so. On
:02:02. > :02:12.Tuesday the latest borrowing figures are were published with
:02:12. > :02:15.December's borrowing coming in higher at �15.4 billion. If that is
:02:15. > :02:17.a trend that continues it would see the government overshoot the Office
:02:17. > :02:19.for Budget Responsibility's borrowing forecast for the year. On
:02:19. > :02:21.Wednesday, the International Monetary Fund cut its growth
:02:21. > :02:30.forecasts for the UK, predicting the country's economy will only
:02:30. > :02:33.grow by 1% in 2012-13, and by 1.9% next year. That's about a third of
:02:33. > :02:37.1% less than they'd been predicting before. But Wednesday did see good
:02:37. > :02:44.news for the Government on the jobs front. The number of people out of
:02:44. > :02:47.work fell by 37,000 to 2.49 million in the three months to November.
:02:47. > :02:50.But this morning there was that really worrying news that the
:02:50. > :03:00.economy contracted by 0.3% in the final quarter of 2012, according to
:03:00. > :03:01.
:03:01. > :03:05.the Office of National Statistics. That's worse than most of the
:03:05. > :03:09.forecasters had hoped. If it shrinks again in the next three
:03:10. > :03:12.months we will officially be back in recession. Well, in Davos, the
:03:12. > :03:20.Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne gave his reaction to
:03:20. > :03:23.today's figures. We have a reminder today that Britain faces a very
:03:24. > :03:27.difficult economic situation. A reminder that last year was
:03:27. > :03:32.particularly difficult. We face problems at home with the debts
:03:32. > :03:35.built up over many years, and problems abroad with the Eurozone
:03:35. > :03:39.where we export our products which is deep in recession. We can either
:03:39. > :03:45.run away from the problems or confront them. I am determined to
:03:45. > :03:52.confront them so we can create jobs for the people of this country.
:03:52. > :04:01.That was the Chancellor. With this in here is Craig Wood House and
:04:01. > :04:08.Mary Riddell. Welcome to you both. First, Danny Alexander joins me now.
:04:08. > :04:12.He did not go to Davos, and got to come on hearing stead. What is it
:04:12. > :04:15.like to preside over the worst recovery in 100 years? The figures
:04:15. > :04:19.are a reminder of the severity and difficulty of the challenges we
:04:19. > :04:27.face as a country. They are disappointing figures, but not
:04:27. > :04:30.surprising. It is what the OBR forecast in the last month. The two
:04:30. > :04:37.is the overall picture I'm looking up. By some calculations, this is
:04:37. > :04:40.the worst recovery since the 1830s. There is no recovery, is there?
:04:40. > :04:44.recover at -- economy is recovering from the deepest recession and
:04:44. > :04:49.worst financial crisis since the Second World War, or some would
:04:49. > :04:55.argue before that. We are doing so in eight World Environment, whereas
:04:55. > :04:58.you have said before, as the Chancellor said as well, that the
:04:58. > :05:02.Eurozone is going through major difficulties. That is the major
:05:02. > :05:06.export market and that is slowing the economy down. The impact of the
:05:06. > :05:11.banking crisis is deeper than we thought. But where we are also
:05:11. > :05:16.seeing, as you fairly observed, not just the deficit falling over the
:05:16. > :05:21.first two and a half years. But also employment, over one million
:05:21. > :05:25.jobs created. In 2012 it was the most number of jobs created in the
:05:25. > :05:28.private sector in the British economy since 1989. There are
:05:28. > :05:33.positives as well as the grave difficulties. You talk about
:05:33. > :05:38.recovery, but the economy is not recovering. Effectively, the
:05:38. > :05:44.economy is no bigger as we sit here today and it was when he formed the
:05:44. > :05:47.coalition. It is stagnating. Correct? That is a consequence of
:05:47. > :05:51.the severe problems we are dealing with as a country. When we came
:05:51. > :05:57.into office, we inherited from the Labour Party a huge mess in public
:05:57. > :06:00.finances, and unbalanced economy. All the emphasis had been on the
:06:00. > :06:04.banking in the City of London to drive growth, and that is the part
:06:04. > :06:10.of the economy that collapsed. We put in place policies, whether it
:06:10. > :06:14.was guarantees for infrastructure, or capital spending on transport,
:06:14. > :06:18.investing in apprenticeships, things designed to make the British
:06:18. > :06:25.economy more competitive. The you knew you had inherited a mess. That
:06:25. > :06:29.is why you formed a coalition. But having no new inherited the mess
:06:29. > :06:33.you proceeded on the basis that the economy would have grown by 6%, and
:06:34. > :06:39.it hasn't grown at all. I don't understand why you knew what was a
:06:39. > :06:47.mess but she thought it would grow by 6%. Now you say it is a mess and
:06:47. > :06:51.it hasn't grown tall. We set up the OBR. -- at all. They produced an
:06:51. > :06:54.economic forecast and that is what we worked on at the time. They
:06:54. > :06:59.produced an assessment of why the forecasts were wrong. The factors
:06:59. > :07:03.they cited are the ones I have mentioned. The crisis in the
:07:03. > :07:08.Eurozone, and the impact it had on the British economy. The impact of
:07:08. > :07:12.the financial crisis on the economy as a whole. High inflation in the
:07:12. > :07:14.earlier part of the parliament. All of those things meant that the
:07:14. > :07:18.circumstances were even more difficult than we expected. That
:07:18. > :07:22.does not mean that the path of repairing the public finances and
:07:22. > :07:27.trying to make economy more competitive and investing in the
:07:27. > :07:34.things we need, like infrastructure and skills, is the wrong mix. Yes,
:07:34. > :07:39.the road is difficult. I think that is the right mix. More of the same
:07:39. > :07:42.then? If you think about this coming year, you have the largest
:07:42. > :07:46.income tax cut coming through the pipeline in a generation, something
:07:46. > :07:51.they came from the Liberal Democrat election manifesto. The guarantees
:07:51. > :07:58.put in place for infrastructure and housing coming through the system.
:07:58. > :08:00.The it still you say the economy will only grow by 1%? -- but still.
:08:00. > :08:04.The Green Investment Bank we have established, all of these things
:08:04. > :08:09.are designed to support the economy through these difficult
:08:09. > :08:15.circumstances. But it is not growing, Mr Alexander. It is not
:08:15. > :08:19.working. You have no recovery. It is not working. As I say, we are
:08:19. > :08:23.facing severe challenges in the country. If anything should remind
:08:23. > :08:28.us of the severity of those challenges, it is today's figures.
:08:28. > :08:35.That mix of policies I have described, we have to get the
:08:35. > :08:41.finances under control. But the deficit is rising again, correct?
:08:41. > :08:46.For this financial year, April to December, the deficit is �7 billion
:08:46. > :08:49.higher than the same period last year. Correct? If you look at the
:08:49. > :08:57.financial year we are in, the OBR produced a forecast last month
:08:57. > :09:03.where they said the deficit would fall. But the OBR is famous for
:09:03. > :09:07.getting everything wrong. That is why you were in a mess. Why don't
:09:07. > :09:13.you fire the OBR? They keep giving you the wrong predictions. I think
:09:13. > :09:16.it is important we have independent people doing this. Even when they
:09:16. > :09:23.are wrong? I think other independent forecasters made
:09:23. > :09:28.similar errors for similar reasons. It is a real blow to you if the
:09:28. > :09:33.deficit keeps rising. You keep asking me questions and I can only
:09:33. > :09:38.get a third of it out as an answer. I'm still trying to answer three
:09:38. > :09:43.questions ago. Let me just finish the point. Do you accept that the
:09:43. > :09:46.deficit will be higher this year than last year? I accept the
:09:46. > :09:50.forecast that the OBR produced a month ago, setting out what they
:09:50. > :09:55.expect the deficit to beat. You know as well as I do that the
:09:55. > :10:01.monthly figures for all of these things very. I April to December is
:10:01. > :10:05.a lot of mums. I want to bring in my guess -- a lot of mums. Do you
:10:05. > :10:13.share the regret from at Nick Clegg that he cut the capital spending
:10:13. > :10:18.too fast and too deep? We inherited the plans for deeper cuts. If you
:10:18. > :10:22.look at the spending review in 2010, we added �2 billion the year to
:10:22. > :10:26.capital spending. And in the Autumn Statement there was another 5
:10:26. > :10:29.billion. And just last December another 5 billion. I agree that
:10:29. > :10:33.extra capital investment is important for the economy. We have
:10:33. > :10:39.made decisions that, in the context of the difficulties we face, put
:10:39. > :10:47.more capital spending into the system. But did you cut it too fast
:10:47. > :10:51.and too deep? We added to it. He's absolutely right to say that the
:10:51. > :10:56.cuts Labour had planned were too deep, which is why we added to it
:10:56. > :11:01.in the spending review and in the Autumn Statement. But he is saying
:11:01. > :11:07.that we still cut too fast and too deep. I don't think he does say
:11:07. > :11:15.that, actually. I've read the interview. Lead me just answer the
:11:15. > :11:18.point. But - let me. When we came in, looking at the Capital plans we
:11:18. > :11:23.inherited, looking at the financial pressures we face, we will try and
:11:23. > :11:27.do more. We were able to Addy in in the spending review an extra �2
:11:27. > :11:32.billion per year and were able to spend money on more that mattered
:11:32. > :11:36.to the economy. For example, we are spending more on transport
:11:36. > :11:40.investment, which is one of the best things for the economy than
:11:40. > :11:45.our predecessors did in the last five years. Our guarantees on
:11:45. > :11:53.housing is something that no governments have done before.
:11:53. > :11:59.aren't building them. Which GCSE economics textbook had you not read
:11:59. > :12:03.it that if you cut capital spending it would hit the economy? Why is it
:12:03. > :12:11.taking so long to realise, when any student with telly, that is what is
:12:11. > :12:16.happening? -- would tell you. From 2010 when we set out the parliament
:12:16. > :12:21.that view, we had to be prudent and careful. In the end the biggest
:12:21. > :12:24.economic problem we faced was the fact we were spending �150 billion
:12:25. > :12:29.more than we were raising. In that context, we had to be careful about
:12:29. > :12:33.where we put money. But also, subsequently, in the Autumn
:12:33. > :12:36.Statement where we made tough decisions about welfare benefits,
:12:36. > :12:39.and in the short term, have reinvested some of the money to
:12:40. > :12:45.have further investment in transport and broadband and new
:12:45. > :12:51.schools and housing. Mary is jumping to ask a question. It would
:12:51. > :12:57.seem to me that this is a catastrophic figure. The fact we
:12:57. > :13:00.have had a lack of growth for four out of five quarters with the
:13:00. > :13:03.exception being the quarter with the Olympic Games. Clearly we are
:13:03. > :13:11.not going to have one of those every year. Andrew is right, of
:13:11. > :13:17.course, that this is the worst four year period since pre-Victorian
:13:17. > :13:21.times. Give him a question. The question is, is not part of the
:13:21. > :13:28.problem that you have sucked so much demand out of things with
:13:28. > :13:37.welfare cuts, the lack of capital spending, to which Nick Clegg
:13:37. > :13:45.alluded, with tax rises and so on. We need a question. A what are you
:13:45. > :13:51.going to do to remedy that? interrupt your other guests less
:13:51. > :13:55.than you do me. I agree with Mary that we inherited the most
:13:56. > :14:01.catastrophic series of figures in terms of the deficit we had to deal
:14:01. > :14:05.with, the lack of competitiveness and the economy. The competitive
:14:05. > :14:08.deficit, if you like. The lack of capital over many years. The
:14:08. > :14:13.welfare system that was spending out of control. All those things
:14:13. > :14:16.had to be dealt with. In the end, one of the most important things we
:14:16. > :14:20.have done as a government is re- establish confidence and
:14:20. > :14:24.credibility in Britain's ability to deal with public finances. Getting
:14:24. > :14:28.interest rates down benefits millions of people and businesses
:14:28. > :14:31.in the country. You mention the international view of what we are
:14:31. > :14:34.doing, but the sign is we could lose the triple A credit rating,
:14:34. > :14:40.and everything you have bet the farm on has then gone out the
:14:40. > :14:46.window. Is there anything you can do? Looking at the figures today,
:14:46. > :14:49.are we looking at a depression rather than a recession? These
:14:49. > :14:54.figures are a reminder of the difficult challenges we continue to
:14:54. > :14:59.face, to deal with the catastrophic mess we inherited when we came into
:14:59. > :15:03.office. I think it is important we are clear that we will continue to
:15:03. > :15:06.take the difficult decisions that are necessary. I have always said
:15:06. > :15:10.that the credit rating agencies are not the be-all and end-all. What
:15:10. > :15:13.matters in the end is having the right policy mix to ensure that the
:15:13. > :15:19.country continues to be able to command credibility and keep the
:15:19. > :15:22.interest rates low. That is what we are determined to do. That is what
:15:22. > :15:26.a further difficult decisions be made in the autumn statement
:15:26. > :15:29.demonstrated, and we need to continue to demonstrate that to
:15:29. > :15:35.maintain the benefits of that credibility to this country. Do you
:15:35. > :15:39.wish you had gone to Davos? very glad I came here, Andrew!
:15:39. > :15:45.are delighted you came. You would have had fun in Davos. Have you
:15:45. > :15:49.ever been? I've never been. Sure we go together next year? We can go
:15:49. > :15:55.next year and do the interview there. Thank you for coming in this
:15:55. > :16:00.morning. Good to see you. Joining us now from Nottingham is Labour's
:16:00. > :16:04.Shadow Treasury spokesman Chris Leslie. When you look at what the
:16:04. > :16:08.OBR said in 2010, it said that under Alastair Darling you cut the
:16:08. > :16:11.deficit by a quarter, and that is what the government has done, so is
:16:11. > :16:16.there that much difference between what the government is doing and
:16:16. > :16:21.what she planned to do if you stayed in power? -- what you
:16:21. > :16:23.planned to do. I a big gap, and I think the question to Danny
:16:23. > :16:28.Alexander hit the nail on their head. They have not cut the deficit
:16:28. > :16:32.in the way they have spinning. When you look at the figures and
:16:32. > :16:36.performance for this year, the deficit is widening. Borrowing is
:16:36. > :16:40.going up and it is adding to the debt burden. Why's that? Because we
:16:40. > :16:45.have not got the engine of economic growth to make sure we have revenue
:16:45. > :16:47.coming into the Treasury and to get some of the public expenditure on
:16:47. > :16:54.welfare lowered. That is the fundamental problem with the
:16:54. > :16:59.figures today. If you have a flat economy, or worse, it shrinks back,
:16:59. > :17:04.it will make solving the deficit issue far more difficult. All we
:17:04. > :17:07.heard from Danny Alexander was, more of the same, we will continue.
:17:07. > :17:11.They claim that is a strong thing to do. Actually, that is the
:17:11. > :17:18.cowardly thing to do. If they don't have the strength to say that they
:17:18. > :17:20.were wrong and they should not have raised VAT and snub doubt the
:17:20. > :17:25.conference in the economy, and should not have been cutting tax
:17:25. > :17:30.credits -- snubbed belt. That is what has been partly responsible
:17:30. > :17:33.for the problems with the economy today. Do you agree with Nick Clegg
:17:33. > :17:38.that the coalition was wrong to inherit and then implement the
:17:38. > :17:42.Labour cuts to capital spending? They like to keep characterising
:17:42. > :17:46.the previous Government's plans as somehow a course that they were
:17:46. > :17:53.pursuing. In fact, the OBR has said that they have cut capital
:17:53. > :17:59.expenditure much further. planned to cut it by 50%? We know
:17:59. > :18:04.the figures, they are there, you planned to cut it by 50% and this
:18:04. > :18:08.coalition Wendt and cut it by 50%. Was it wrong to do so? Should it
:18:08. > :18:11.have ripped your plans up? I think it is clear we would have taken a
:18:12. > :18:16.different course. I have been on your programme, how many times,
:18:16. > :18:21.it's becoming far too repetitious, we are coming back, almost year
:18:21. > :18:25.after year, to this flat lining economy with growth figures and the
:18:25. > :18:29.borrowing figures getting worse and worse. How many more times we are
:18:29. > :18:33.going to have to do this? What will it take for the government to wake
:18:33. > :18:37.up and realise they have to change course? This is the most
:18:37. > :18:43.frustrating thing. It is not just the Labour Party saying this, you
:18:43. > :18:48.have commentators from Right and Left of centre, the IMF, even that
:18:48. > :18:53.Nick Clegg showed us what he really knew to be the truth of how he
:18:53. > :18:58.needed to mobilise public investment. I'm interested in you
:18:58. > :19:03.saying that Labour was wrong in retrospect to cut capital spending
:19:03. > :19:08.by 50%. The deficit is still currently running at an annual rate
:19:08. > :19:14.of around �120 billion, maybe more than that. And it is certainly more
:19:14. > :19:17.than last year. So if we have a deficit of 120 billion and the
:19:17. > :19:22.economy is not growing at all, how much bigger does the deficit had to
:19:22. > :19:27.become to get some growth? How much bigger would you make it? I think
:19:27. > :19:30.it Danny Alexander it had come on the programme today and said they
:19:30. > :19:36.would have a change in fiscal policy to stimulate the economy, if
:19:36. > :19:41.that had meant borrowing in order to get growth going, people might
:19:41. > :19:46.have given him the benefit of the doubt. But he has not said that. He
:19:46. > :19:52.said he would just continue that. did not ask what Danny Alexander
:19:52. > :19:58.was saying. I'm asking what you were doing. If the deficit of over
:19:58. > :20:01.120 billion still results in that no growth, contrary to what most of
:20:01. > :20:08.Keynesian economics tells us, how big does it have to be to get
:20:08. > :20:10.growth? How big would you make it? My point is this. There are some
:20:10. > :20:16.aspects of publics -- bending the contribute to growth, especially
:20:16. > :20:19.with Investment in infrastructure - - public spending. That is not what
:20:19. > :20:24.the Government is borrowing for. Their borrowing will pay the cost
:20:24. > :20:28.of economic failure. It is going on those costs of welfare, keeping
:20:28. > :20:36.people in low-paid jobs. The reason the growth figures matter today is
:20:36. > :20:40.not because of a macro economic statistic. Fire understand that,
:20:40. > :20:50.but you're not answering the question. Could I have an answer to
:20:50. > :20:57.
:20:57. > :21:00.Of course, that is a difficult choice to make, but I think it is
:21:00. > :21:04.better to do something, rather than nothing. Whereas Danny Alexander
:21:04. > :21:10.has confirmed to you that it is business as usual, no change. We
:21:11. > :21:20.are now joined by the writer and broadcaster Max Kaiser. Welcome
:21:21. > :21:21.
:21:21. > :21:27.back to the programme. What do you make of it all? Well, the UK is
:21:27. > :21:32.screwed. What does that mean? coalition made the wrong bet. They
:21:32. > :21:40.supported the bond market, instead of the real economy. That strategic
:21:40. > :21:42.mistake is now having its after- effects. They could have done
:21:42. > :21:46.something to increase the competitiveness of the country, but
:21:46. > :21:54.instead, they supported the bond market, they supported the bankers,
:21:54. > :21:58.they supported bail-outs. They supported bankers being able to
:21:58. > :22:02.support things like rent seeking. As a result, they have squeezed out
:22:02. > :22:09.the real economy. Here is the joke - the bond market is now on the
:22:09. > :22:18.verge of a major correction. mean British Government gilts?
:22:18. > :22:26.gilt market. It was at a 300-year high. And the cost of insuring
:22:26. > :22:32.British debt is rising. That's correct. And sterling parity is
:22:32. > :22:37.slipping. So, there is a sense that these markets are now saying, hey,
:22:37. > :22:43.this government's fiscal stance has no credibility. Absolutely. The
:22:43. > :22:49.gilt market is starting to move down. Yields are moving up, but the
:22:49. > :22:56.overall trend in this market, when you see a bond market like this,
:22:56. > :23:01.trading at 300-year highs... your view, if the financial markets,
:23:01. > :23:08.the people who lend us money to pay for this huge deficit, if they
:23:08. > :23:12.start to lose... The one thing the Government has always said, is,
:23:12. > :23:16.interest rates are low, people are lending us money, we have got
:23:16. > :23:21.confidence, but if that confidence goes, and as you say, there are
:23:21. > :23:27.straws in the wind. The rating agencies are saying they are going
:23:27. > :23:31.to downgrade British debt. So, what is the consequence? The markets are
:23:31. > :23:37.poised to attack the British pound double what are the consequences?
:23:37. > :23:42.That the cost of funding will be sharply revised upwards by 200 base
:23:42. > :23:45.points, which will mean the cost of funding, a big part of the debt is
:23:46. > :23:52.the interest costs, and that will go up substantially. So, mortgages
:23:52. > :23:56.will go up. Yes, and a lot of people are on tracker funds, which
:23:56. > :24:01.will trigger another real-estate crisis. I wonder whether this is
:24:01. > :24:04.all very theoretical and high and mighty. It seems to me that no-one
:24:04. > :24:09.else in the world is doing much better, so where will the bond
:24:09. > :24:14.market go? If everybody is being downgraded, are we not all in the
:24:14. > :24:18.same place? Welcome what's happening is, every single currency
:24:18. > :24:22.in the world is depreciating against gold and silver. Gold is
:24:22. > :24:26.now becoming the de facto global currency. That's why Germany and
:24:26. > :24:29.the Netherlands are repatriating their gold. And also of France.
:24:29. > :24:33.Because they do not trust each other. That is why these bond
:24:33. > :24:43.markets are problematic, they do not trust each other, they want
:24:43. > :24:48.their gold back in the vault. That's where these funds are going.
:24:48. > :24:53.I have been saying for five a six years to position in gold and
:24:53. > :24:57.silver, because these policies are completely irresponsible. There is
:24:57. > :25:01.too much kowtowing to the City, too much largesse to the banks. They
:25:01. > :25:11.have squeezed out the real economy, and now, the day of reckoning is
:25:11. > :25:12.
:25:12. > :25:16.upon us. It all sounds very apocalyptic. The bond apocalypse!
:25:17. > :25:22.But to get back to your original proposition, where does this end,
:25:22. > :25:26.as far as the ordinary voter is concerned? I was watching The
:25:26. > :25:32.Politics Show last night, and Michael Portillo was talking about
:25:32. > :25:37.the British pound devaluing. Bass already under way. Well, it is
:25:37. > :25:43.going to get shopper. A lot of people think, that is good for
:25:43. > :25:48.exports, but the pound was devalued by almost 20% after 2008, and
:25:48. > :25:52.exports are up nominally. The That's right. That is a misnomer.
:25:52. > :25:59.The cost of imports goes up, and there has been no net gain in
:25:59. > :26:03.exports.. I had better let you go and count your gold. Excellent!
:26:03. > :26:08.Come back and see us. Thank you very much. How old should you be to
:26:08. > :26:12.have the vote? In next week's Scottish referendum, 16-year-olds
:26:12. > :26:18.and 17-year-olds will be allowed to take part, we think. In most other
:26:18. > :26:23.areas of Britain, you have to be 18. There has been a proposal by a Lib
:26:23. > :26:32.Dem MP on lowering the voting age for all citizens. He says
:26:32. > :26:35.citizenship buttons in schools have made young people better-informed.
:26:35. > :26:39.This generation of young people have hard all of the educational
:26:39. > :26:41.opportunities to understand the democratic system, yet we continue
:26:41. > :26:46.to withhold from them the opportunity to put that knowledge
:26:46. > :26:51.into practice. We should not continue to withhold the vote from
:26:51. > :26:56.the best-educated generation of young people. I have been in
:26:56. > :26:59.command of soldiers aged 16 and 17 who are desperate to go on
:26:59. > :27:02.operations, but they are not allowed to do so because this
:27:02. > :27:07.country considers them to be children still. Now, you are
:27:07. > :27:11.suggesting... Forgive me, the Honourable Gentleman is suggesting
:27:11. > :27:15.that a 16-year-old should be able to vote presumably to send soldiers
:27:15. > :27:21.to war, but cannot go to war himself or herself until the age of
:27:21. > :27:25.18. Extraordinary. Extending the franchise has historically always
:27:25. > :27:28.been a good thing, and in a democracy, people should have the
:27:28. > :27:34.right to shake the decisions which affect them, unless there is a
:27:34. > :27:39.really good reason why not. So, my starting point is not why lower the
:27:39. > :27:49.voting age, but actually, why not? Why prevent people from voting at
:27:49. > :27:52.
:27:52. > :27:57.the age of 16? The Scottish referendum actually gives us an
:27:57. > :28:03.opportunity to see how this can work. Why don't we use the Scottish
:28:03. > :28:07.referendum as a pilot to make sure that 16, 17, 18-year-olds have
:28:07. > :28:11.their say in that referendum, and then we will have a look back on
:28:11. > :28:14.how that referendum goes. Because actually, I agree, the genie is out
:28:14. > :28:18.of the bottle once you have 16- year-olds voting in a referendum.
:28:18. > :28:23.Then, to say to them, as soon as the general election happens next
:28:23. > :28:27.year, to deny them the vote, that would be very difficult. There is
:28:27. > :28:33.nothing so nauseating and ridiculous as seeing MPs trying to
:28:33. > :28:36.court the youth vote, trying to appear trendy, by wanting to pursue
:28:37. > :28:41.these kind of youth issues. That is what this is all about, MPs trying
:28:41. > :28:45.to look trendy and youthful. It is rather pathetic. It would at least
:28:45. > :28:50.be better if they had some sound logic behind her views, that they
:28:50. > :28:55.really did trust 16-year-old to make decisions. But what we have
:28:55. > :28:57.heard today is, we believe 16-year- olds are capable of voting, but
:28:57. > :29:05.they are not capable of making other decisions which affect their
:29:05. > :29:14.lives. At the end of the debate, MPs voted in favour of reducing the
:29:14. > :29:21.voting age to 16, and they did so by 119 votes to 46. But of course,
:29:21. > :29:26.the decision is not binding on the Government. It is likely to be
:29:26. > :29:29.taken up in the near future. Before we go on, I can tell you, Andy
:29:29. > :29:36.Murray has won against Federer in Australia, and he goes on to the
:29:36. > :29:40.final on Sunday morning. Having caused us problems with The Daily
:29:40. > :29:46.Politics, he will now do so with The Sunday Politics on Sunday
:29:46. > :29:51.lunchtime! We wish him well in the final. With us now, Professor of
:29:51. > :29:56.parliamentary government from the University of Nottingham, Messi,
:29:56. > :30:01.and Rhammel Afflick, from the British Youth Council, who has been
:30:01. > :30:07.on before. I do not detect any great clamour from youths to vote
:30:07. > :30:10.at 16, is there? You will not find young people demonstrating and
:30:11. > :30:17.doing all those sorts of things, because actually, a lot of young
:30:17. > :30:20.people, as has been shown with the younger voters, who can vote at the
:30:20. > :30:24.moment, they may not be as interested in politics as they
:30:24. > :30:28.should be, perhaps. And so this is the reason why some and you would
:30:28. > :30:35.find that sort of thing happening with this issue. And also, there
:30:35. > :30:42.are a lot of other issues at the moment for young people. What is
:30:42. > :30:46.the reason for nut -- not cutting the voting age? There are lots of
:30:46. > :30:49.reasons, but the number one reason from my point of view would be that
:30:49. > :30:53.this is the only bit of the British constitution which people
:30:53. > :30:56.understand and support. There was a survey a couple of years ago which
:30:57. > :31:01.looked at 11 different aspects of the British constitution and found
:31:01. > :31:07.only one which most people said they understood and supported, and
:31:07. > :31:10.that was votes at 18. So, all of this debate yesterday was about
:31:10. > :31:16.reinvigorating politics. That was the argument given by Stephen
:31:16. > :31:21.Williams, who moved the debate. It seems to me to be bizarre to start
:31:21. > :31:26.doing that by taking the one bit that people like and changing it.
:31:26. > :31:30.This is opposed by a 70% to 80% of the public. What a strange way to
:31:30. > :31:35.reinvigorate democracy O. If there is no great clamour for it in the
:31:35. > :31:43.first place, why would giving people something that they are not
:31:43. > :31:47.desperate for reinvigorate politics? My argument is not that
:31:47. > :31:52.giving 16-year-old the vote would suddenly make them want to vote.
:31:52. > :31:56.That is a separate issue, which needs to be tackled. I think that
:31:56. > :32:00.actually, maybe a lot of the older generation might not want 16-year-
:32:00. > :32:04.old to be voting, but at the end of the day, they are not in that
:32:04. > :32:09.position. They are not, for example, living independently in a situation
:32:09. > :32:14.where they have no real say in maybe the local council and what
:32:14. > :32:21.they are doing. At the moment, you can leave school, you can start
:32:21. > :32:27.earning a proper salary from 16. Nobody ever wants the British
:32:27. > :32:31.constitution changed. That is why we are stuck back in the... But we
:32:31. > :32:36.have changed the constitution or the time - Scottish devolution,
:32:36. > :32:41.Welsh devolution, referendum on proportional representation...
:32:41. > :32:47.Nobody in his ever crying out for it. But on the broader point, I am
:32:48. > :32:53.all for votes at 16. The point made in the debate was quite patronising,
:32:53. > :32:57.that people have better citizenship classes and so on, as if the older
:32:58. > :33:02.voter has some peculiar monopoly on sagacity and wisdom. But also, I
:33:02. > :33:07.think a lot of what goes down in politics is aimed specifically at
:33:07. > :33:11.very young people. In Tony Blair's talent, we had ASBOs, we had all of
:33:11. > :33:16.these statutes which were specifically aimed at children and
:33:16. > :33:20.young people. Now, we have got university tuition fees, which of
:33:20. > :33:25.course affect exactly your generation. Child benefit is aimed
:33:25. > :33:32.at children, we do not give them the vote. Of course, you have to
:33:32. > :33:35.draw a reasonable, pragmatic line. 16 seems to be about right. Many of
:33:35. > :33:40.the arguments Mary has just used would apply to 14-year-olds. So you
:33:40. > :33:43.draw the line somewhere. When you look at the other ages at which we
:33:43. > :33:49.are now beginning to allow people to do things, actually, those ages
:33:49. > :33:53.are moving up to 18, not down to 16. Many people in that debate
:33:53. > :33:58.yesterday in recent years voted not to allow people to buy fireworks
:33:58. > :34:05.until 18, not to be able to go into tanning booths. Ages are going up,
:34:05. > :34:09.not down. That is a crucial thing. This is a solution looking for a
:34:09. > :34:13.problem. You only have to look at the people sat on the green benches
:34:13. > :34:18.to see that. If we are going to tackle this issue, we have to look
:34:18. > :34:21.across the board, what can you do at 16, 17 and 18. We have just
:34:21. > :34:25.spent 20 minutes talking about the state of the economy. That has got
:34:25. > :34:28.to be the priority. So therefore why not let young people have a
:34:28. > :34:36.vote on the state of the economy since their futures will be
:34:36. > :34:42.affected by it? Are we seriously going to spend days, weeks, months,
:34:42. > :34:47.are arguing about this in Parliament? I think it is
:34:47. > :34:51.interesting. It is now more likely to happen, then it was, not because
:34:51. > :34:54.of yesterday's non-binding motion, with only 25% of MPs taking part,
:34:54. > :35:00.but because of the fact that the Labour Party has begun to shift on
:35:00. > :35:04.this. I think that is the key bit about yesterday's debate..
:35:04. > :35:08.Labour form the majority government after 2015, you think this could be
:35:09. > :35:13.on the agenda? I think it is very likely to be in the manifesto..
:35:13. > :35:20.you think they would put it in the manifesto? I would not be at all
:35:20. > :35:25.surprised. It is absolutely right. Miliband was a supporter before.
:35:25. > :35:29.And of course, not even just a majority Labour government, but a
:35:29. > :35:38.deal with the Lib Dems, who have long supported votes for 17-year-
:35:38. > :35:41.olds. Researchers have been digging deeply, and it seems that all the
:35:41. > :35:49.Channel Islands, they have it, Austria might have it, and Cuba,
:35:49. > :35:56.but very few of the world's democracies - Cuba does not really
:35:56. > :35:59.count - have votes at 16. Surprising, in a way. To have no we
:35:59. > :36:02.should lead the way, and actually, if you look for examples within
:36:02. > :36:06.political parties, for example, if it was a member of the
:36:06. > :36:10.Conservatives, I could vote David Cameron to be leader of the
:36:10. > :36:17.Conservatives, but I could not fur his party to be in government. So,
:36:17. > :36:25.there is that argument as well. For me at the moment, I run my own
:36:25. > :36:30.business. I am 18, almost 19. Immaculately dressed, compared to
:36:30. > :36:34.most of the MPs that come in here. Will you come back and see us?
:36:34. > :36:39.Definitely. Nottingham still the best politics department in the
:36:39. > :36:43.country? Of course. Thank you both. It has been quite a week, starting
:36:43. > :36:47.with the most appalling tragedy in the Algerian desert, moving on to
:36:47. > :36:51.the inauguration speech in Washington, culminating with David
:36:51. > :37:01.Cameron announcing the policy which would define his premiership, the
:37:01. > :37:02.
:37:02. > :37:07.in-out referendum in Europe. Here it all is in 60 seconds. This week,
:37:07. > :37:10.that long awaited speech on Europe was made by David Cameron, giving
:37:10. > :37:15.Conservative Euro-sceptics of the red meet they had been longing for.
:37:15. > :37:19.To stay in the European Union on these new terms or to come out
:37:19. > :37:24.altogether. It will be an in-out referendum.. However, they will
:37:24. > :37:28.have to wait until after the next election forehead, and get the EU
:37:28. > :37:32.to renegotiate first. Prince Harry headed back from Afghanistan, and
:37:32. > :37:36.the MoD announced plans to cut more than 5,000. But there was good news
:37:36. > :37:39.for UK jobs, with unemployment falling to its lowest level for 18
:37:39. > :37:44.months. The Deputy Prime Minister has been revealing yet more
:37:44. > :37:49.information than he probably wanted to in his weekly phone-in show.
:37:49. > :37:55.This time he did not rule out sending his son to private school.
:37:55. > :38:05.And it was all stars and Blair as President Obama celebrated his
:38:05. > :38:10.
:38:10. > :38:14.So, plenty of political controversy in the week just gone. In the week
:38:14. > :38:17.coming up, there will be a vote on Tory plans to change the
:38:17. > :38:23.parliamentary boundaries, which they are likely to lose, I would
:38:23. > :38:26.suspect. MPs will also be voting on gay marriage. Now, the week is
:38:26. > :38:30.ending badly because of his economic figures. In the middle of
:38:30. > :38:36.it, it was a good week for Mr Cameron, because suddenly, the Tory
:38:36. > :38:41.press was actually on his side! And Labour is slightly, no more than
:38:41. > :38:46.that, but slightly discombobulated by this referendum, are they not?
:38:46. > :38:50.Yes, my guess is that Ed Miliband is not personally discombobulated,
:38:50. > :38:54.but I think there is a very strong strand of opinion in the Labour
:38:54. > :39:00.Party which would dearly have liked him to have announced his own
:39:00. > :39:04.referendum, not on exit but on consent. That feeling that people
:39:04. > :39:08.should be consulted is very strong in Labour, and I think it is very
:39:08. > :39:12.difficult, the line of attack which is building up for them, which is
:39:12. > :39:16.that Labour is the party which does not want to hear what the people
:39:16. > :39:20.once. I think that will be difficult for Labour. I think it
:39:20. > :39:24.slightly through them, and their message was a bit mixed. When you
:39:24. > :39:30.look at the course of the economy, at this moment, you would have to
:39:30. > :39:34.guess that come the election in 2015, the Tories in particular, and
:39:34. > :39:38.a coalition, are not going to have a great story to tell. The economy
:39:38. > :39:41.is hardly going to be in fine fettle, so you need something else
:39:41. > :39:46.which you think will be popular, hence, we will give you a
:39:46. > :39:50.referendum, they built not. Desk, and I think that message is very
:39:50. > :39:53.simple to get across. As soon as Ed Miliband stood up in the Commons
:39:53. > :39:58.and said, we do not believe in the referendum, the Tories immediately
:39:58. > :40:05.said, this is a party which does not trust the people. You're right,
:40:05. > :40:10.they will have to find things, the Tory party. But even for people who
:40:10. > :40:13.may care deeply about Europe, or they may be strongly Euro-sceptic,
:40:13. > :40:18.we have jobs, living standards, economic growth, having money to
:40:18. > :40:23.put food on the table, these things matter more. Of course they do.
:40:23. > :40:28.Europe comes 9th or 10th in the list of people's concerns. So did
:40:28. > :40:31.the Scottish Parliament, but they still got devolution! True, but
:40:31. > :40:37.while it might play well for Cameron in the short term, and buy
:40:37. > :40:40.him some time, nonetheless, he has got boundary changes coming up,
:40:40. > :40:44.discontented backbenchers who will be losing seats, and equally, gay
:40:44. > :40:47.marriage, which will be a knotty issue for the Tories. So,
:40:47. > :40:51.tactically he has played it very well in the short term, but I think
:40:51. > :40:56.in the medium to long-term, all bets are off for him.
:40:56. > :41:04.politically it works for him quite well, because it discombobulated
:41:04. > :41:08.Labour a bit, and it kind of tackles UKIP, but also, he gets
:41:08. > :41:13.nice headlines in the Tory press, including no, in the paper - when
:41:13. > :41:18.did we last see that? That is Drincic, but he has ratcheted up
:41:18. > :41:22.the potential consequences if he fails on it. -- that is true. If he
:41:22. > :41:25.cannot get what he wants, if he comes back with what has been
:41:25. > :41:34.described as a box of tiddly Binks from Europe, then everybody will be
:41:34. > :41:38.unhappy. And he has to win the next election. That's it for today.
:41:38. > :41:43.Thanks to both of you for being with us. Sorry we were a bit late
:41:43. > :41:46.in starting but we got there in the end. And Andy Murray won, and he
:41:46. > :41:51.will be in the final in Australia on Sunday morning. The One O'Clock