:00:46. > :00:50.Politics. Nothing about Europe in the Queens speech. MPs could get a
:00:50. > :00:57.free vote on and on out EU referendum next week. Are we getting
:00:57. > :01:00.closer to a British exit? As a Prime Minister meet Vladimir
:01:00. > :01:06.Putin in Russia, Canada you'll be done to bring the Syrian conflict
:01:06. > :01:12.closer to a conclusion? A third runway at Heathrow? No, the
:01:12. > :01:17.airport needs four runways, says a committee of MPs, slamming Boris's
:01:17. > :01:24.idea of an estuary airport. And was it a mistake to welcome this
:01:24. > :01:31.man to Britain? Is his stand subhuman rights putting at risk our
:01:32. > :01:36.relationship with China? -- his stands on human rights.
:01:36. > :01:43.All that in the next hour. With us for the duration, Paul Waugh, editor
:01:43. > :01:45.of Politics Home, the website, and we hope to be joined by the editor
:01:45. > :01:51.of Prospect Magazine shortly, Bronwen Maddox, but she's stuck in
:01:51. > :01:56.traffic. Moment she arrives, we will whisper in. Let's start with the
:01:56. > :02:04.clear up with the coalition over the government's child -- flareup with
:02:04. > :02:08.the coalition over benefits reform. Some of the backbenchers were
:02:08. > :02:11.spitting with rage yesterday after Nick Clegg threatened plans to --
:02:11. > :02:16.threatened to veto plans to change the ratio for nurses and
:02:16. > :02:21.childminders. The BBC has obtained a leaked exchange of letters between
:02:21. > :02:31.the childcare Minister, Liz Truss, and Nick Clegg, from last December.
:02:31. > :02:49.
:02:49. > :02:52.In a letter, Liz Truss warrens Lib Dems insist he was signing off a
:02:52. > :02:57.consultation, not the policy itself.
:02:57. > :03:02.But Liz Truss was not sure of that. Some conservatives are asking why he
:03:02. > :03:06.did not raise his concerns at the time. We decided the issue of
:03:06. > :03:15.whether central government should be involved in laying down by statute
:03:15. > :03:18.ratios of childcare staff to the toddlers, let's park that moment, it
:03:18. > :03:22.is something even the Swedes do not bother to do. What does this tell us
:03:22. > :03:25.about the state of the coalition? is interesting that we're talking
:03:26. > :03:32.about childcare but both sides are throwing their toys out of the pram.
:03:32. > :03:36.There is no overt stating that the bitterness felt by the Tories is
:03:36. > :03:39.quite keen on this one. They work getting into their stride over the
:03:39. > :03:47.Queens speech and then there was this flareup from Nick Clegg, going
:03:47. > :03:52.quite public with it. He left Liz Truss twisting in the wind. There is
:03:52. > :03:57.our sense on the Tory side that Nick Clegg knows that he is not the bees
:03:57. > :04:01.knees among the Lib Dem activists or the Tory backbenchers. Conference is
:04:01. > :04:05.not that far away. Is there a sense that he is throwing red meat to his
:04:05. > :04:09.activists? There is a sense among the Tories
:04:09. > :04:13.that the Lib Dems are trying to regain ground from what looked like
:04:13. > :04:17.an overwhelmingly blue Queens speech, with things like immigration
:04:17. > :04:23.at its heart. Not core issues for Lib Dem activists or voters, stuff
:04:23. > :04:28.like welfare. And Lib Dems pet projects, like the lobbyist
:04:28. > :04:32.register, has been dumped, plain packaging on cigarettes also
:04:32. > :04:35.dumped. The was a feeling that maybe the Lib Dems felt bruised and he
:04:35. > :04:42.felt that he had to make some capital. It makes for a scratchy
:04:42. > :04:46.government. But it is probably not enough on its own to stop the
:04:46. > :04:49.coalition in its tracks? Absolutely correct. Why should declare an
:04:49. > :04:54.interest because I have a bet of a Magnum of champagne with Ian Martin
:04:54. > :05:00.that the coalition will start -- will survive until 2015, but that is
:05:00. > :05:03.not to say that I wanted to. With Nick Clegg at the helm? Even if they
:05:03. > :05:05.come fourth or fifth in the European elections and headless chicken
:05:05. > :05:09.syndrome breaks out? There is mutually assured destruction going
:05:09. > :05:15.on here. Vince Cable in the background saying he could be doing
:05:15. > :05:18.better? There is no sense yet that the Lib Dems are in changing leader
:05:18. > :05:21.territory. They have made their bed and they are going to lie in it. The
:05:21. > :05:28.point of the coalition is to prove that they are grown-ups in
:05:28. > :05:31.government. Cameron and Clegg are wedded to the project. What kind of
:05:31. > :05:36.champagne? Ian wanted it to be vintage but I think it should be
:05:36. > :05:42.quite normal. It is time for the daily quiz. Michael Gove gave a
:05:42. > :05:45.speech yesterday when he criticised the use of comic characters to teach
:05:45. > :05:52.GCSE history lessons. Which of these has been used to study the black and
:05:52. > :05:59.the rise of the third Reich? Was it 1010, Nemo or the Mr Men
:05:59. > :06:06.characters? Or D, Bob the builder. -- was it 1010.
:06:06. > :06:10.By the end of the show, we will get the correct answer.
:06:10. > :06:15.20 bills in a seven and a half minute speech by the Queen but there
:06:15. > :06:19.was not one word which passed her lips on Wednesday about Europe. But
:06:19. > :06:22.that has not stopped everyone else talking about it. This week, members
:06:22. > :06:26.of the old Tory guard have come out fighting to say they want out of the
:06:26. > :06:36.EU. On Tuesday, Nigel Lawson said that the economic gains of leaving
:06:36. > :06:39.would substantially outweigh the costs. Last week -- last night,
:06:39. > :06:45.Michael Portillo told me that the problem in our relationship would be
:06:45. > :06:49.you cannot be solved by a little renegotiation. -- our relationship
:06:49. > :06:54.with the EU. Yesterday, nominal Mont told the BBC that the advantages of
:06:54. > :07:02.ownership were vastly overstated. Support for that position is growing
:07:02. > :07:08.on the home front. -- Norman Lamont. The times had a vote in which they
:07:08. > :07:13.discovered that if there was a referendum tomorrow, 46% would vote
:07:13. > :07:17.to quit the EU against 35% who would vote to stay in. And there is
:07:17. > :07:20.disquiet on the rearguard, too. A group of Conservative MPs say that
:07:20. > :07:26.they will table an amendment to the Queens speech yesterday -- next
:07:26. > :07:29.week, expressing regret that there is no EU referendum Bill. We're
:07:29. > :07:39.joined by one of those MPs behind the amendment, Phillip Hollobone,
:07:39. > :07:39.
:07:39. > :07:47.and by Axelle Lemaire E, the French socialist MP. -- Axelle Lemaire. She
:07:47. > :07:53.is a French socialist MP for Northern Europe. This amendment, is
:07:53. > :07:57.it your understanding that the Tory whips will allow a free vote?
:07:57. > :08:01.also, because that will truly reflect the opinion of Conservative
:08:01. > :08:05.MPs and of the Conservative party. I'm know you would hope so, topping
:08:05. > :08:09.and happening can be something very different. Is it your understanding
:08:09. > :08:13.that there will be a free vote? have not been told that but whether
:08:13. > :08:17.it is a free vote or not, they will be a considerable number of
:08:17. > :08:23.Conservative MPs supporting it. if you are equipped to vote against
:08:23. > :08:26.this amendment, would you define a whip? Yes. And you believe a large
:08:26. > :08:34.number of colleagues will do the same? I should think very large
:08:34. > :08:40.number. There were 81 MPs rebelling the last time, and would not be
:08:40. > :08:45.surprised if the number is in excess of 100. Is there a sense that the
:08:45. > :08:50.promised will vote for the amendment? I don't think he will be
:08:50. > :08:56.here. That is convenient. Why is the amendment so polite? It is
:08:56. > :08:59.respectful regret? We have two table it in parliamentary language and the
:08:59. > :09:04.original motion is to thank Her Majesty for her speech. So any
:09:04. > :09:10.amendment has to be respectfully worded. Can you clarify what exactly
:09:10. > :09:14.it is that you want to happen on the referendum front? I want Britain to
:09:14. > :09:19.leave the European Union but I want urge people to have a say at some
:09:20. > :09:23.point, preferably sooner than later on whether we should leave or not.
:09:23. > :09:27.Is it your view that we should have a referendum before the election or
:09:27. > :09:34.on the day of the election? Either before or not on the day after. It
:09:34. > :09:44.has to be one of those. And is it your view, IU happy to have a
:09:44. > :09:45.
:09:45. > :09:50.referendum on our existing status in Europe? The difference of dreamy and
:09:50. > :09:53.David Cameron is that if there were a -- the difference between me and
:09:53. > :09:58.David Cameron is that if there were a referendum today, he would vote to
:09:58. > :10:02.stay in and I would vote to leave. Is there anything the Prime Minister
:10:02. > :10:06.any terms of membership that would cause you to change your mind?
:10:06. > :10:09.for me but I suspect it would be a large number of people in the
:10:09. > :10:14.general population who might be persuaded if there were a
:10:14. > :10:20.substantial renegotiation. Is it possible that Conservative
:10:20. > :10:26.backbenchers will bring forward the referendum Bill calling for an
:10:26. > :10:29.immediate referendum? I think that is highly likely. There will be a
:10:29. > :10:33.ballot of Private members in the next few weeks and one of them will
:10:33. > :10:39.be a Conservative MP, and that Conservative MP will come under huge
:10:39. > :10:41.pressure to bring a referendum Bill. And then you will put the
:10:41. > :10:47.government in a difficult position because this government can pick and
:10:47. > :10:50.mix the legislation it supports. There has to be an agreement between
:10:50. > :10:54.the Lib Dem and conservative part of the coalition of what legislation it
:10:54. > :10:59.supports and the Lib Dems will not allow support for a bill like that.
:10:59. > :11:02.Correct? I don't think that's quite right. The government has to agree
:11:02. > :11:11.on what legislation the government brings forward? The Lib Dem part of
:11:11. > :11:16.the coalition block to the boundary bill. So if there were a referendum,
:11:16. > :11:19.I do not understand why government members could not support that.
:11:19. > :11:25.you believe as Michael Portillo implied, that the Prime Minister is
:11:25. > :11:31.not really for leaving under any terms? He would not thought to leave
:11:31. > :11:37.no, but I would. Think the prime could be persuaded. -- he would not
:11:37. > :11:40.vote to leave now. We had to give the people say, because that is the
:11:40. > :11:44.important thing, what they think. The question is when, and what
:11:44. > :11:49.terms? Bannister is making it clear that he wants a referendum by the
:11:49. > :11:53.end of 2017. Provided he wins.We had to hold his feet to the flames
:11:53. > :11:59.to make sure that comes up. And if he does not win, you will never get
:11:59. > :12:08.a referendum. What you make this? all sounds like a very foreign
:12:08. > :12:13.language to me. Well, it is. It is, but there is not only a channel
:12:13. > :12:22.between us, there is a world. I think as a French citizen, living in
:12:22. > :12:30.London, this debate on Europe sounds like a debate about a debate about a
:12:30. > :12:38.debate. Do not understand what is behind it, what kind of powers would
:12:38. > :12:44.be repatriated, and seen from the continent, our political priorities
:12:44. > :12:52.are jobs. We have high unemployment and we need to discover how to get
:12:52. > :12:59.the country out of recession. So, following the financial crisis, we
:12:59. > :13:03.feel that it is too much -- it is not the time to reopen the
:13:03. > :13:07.negotiation agenda on Europe. It is rather the opposite, we need to work
:13:07. > :13:09.towards greater integration to make sure that the crisis... But he knows
:13:09. > :13:15.that if there is greater integration, Britain will never be
:13:15. > :13:21.part of that. Well, that is entirely up to Britain. Under the current
:13:21. > :13:25.terms... Even the Lib Dems are -- and the increasingly pro-Europe
:13:25. > :13:31.Labour do not believe there should be integration. This is so clear to
:13:31. > :13:37.me. The Prime Minister sometimes says that he wants further political
:13:37. > :13:39.integration within the Eurozone. you, yes, but I am talking about
:13:39. > :13:44.Britain. I'm talking about the Eurozone countries, sorry. The fear
:13:44. > :13:48.in Britain is that the Eurozone, because of the mess it is in, and
:13:48. > :13:51.the absurd decision to have monetary union before you get anywhere near
:13:51. > :13:56.political union, the political union will have to follow. And that is the
:13:56. > :13:59.game in town. And that will dominate Europe for the next decade. And your
:14:00. > :14:05.economies are in such a mess that the argument of the Eurozone will
:14:05. > :14:09.dominate. And therefore, Britain is not part of that, and might as well
:14:09. > :14:13.go another way. That is your argument, correct? It is my
:14:13. > :14:18.argument. But Britain is part of that. When it comes to discussing
:14:18. > :14:28.the regulations on financial services, Britain is part of it at
:14:28. > :14:29.
:14:29. > :14:34.the moment. But we usually lose! have a financial transaction tax
:14:34. > :14:37.which Britain did not want. It is a measure that will be permitted
:14:37. > :14:44.within the next few months in a positive way. Let me ask you, is
:14:44. > :14:50.Europe in a mood, Berlin or Paris, that's what matters, is Berlin or
:14:50. > :14:55.Paris in a mood to agree to any kind of meaningful renegotiation of
:14:55. > :14:59.powers back to London or Britain? is not a political priority at the
:14:59. > :15:05.moment. So he is right and you might as well have a referendum. Herman
:15:05. > :15:13.Van Rompuy said that it is difficult to even consider the go see it in
:15:13. > :15:19.with the country when you know that they have a hand on the exit handle.
:15:19. > :15:23.That is called a bargaining chip. What you say to it? I'm not sure
:15:23. > :15:30.that the actual beverage of negotiations is real. I'd do not
:15:30. > :15:32.think that there is any. Eurozone countries will ultimately
:15:32. > :15:42.become a United States of Europe. The British people do not want to be
:15:42. > :15:43.
:15:43. > :15:47.part of that. The sooner we get out of it, the better. Mrs Merkel may
:15:47. > :15:54.have a different view from you on that. But if the mood in Europe is
:15:54. > :16:00.not to give any kind of repatriations that matters in
:16:00. > :16:07.negotiations, our Paris and Berlin aware that in a referendum, it is
:16:07. > :16:11.likely that Britain would vote to get out? I agree that that is a
:16:11. > :16:18.question to be decided by the British people and our political
:16:18. > :16:23.leaders. So I think there is concern about the potential results of such
:16:24. > :16:32.a referendum, because we are convinced that it would be harmful
:16:32. > :16:39.for the rest of the EU, but also for the United Kingdom. Almost 90% of
:16:39. > :16:49.the small businesses in this country trade with other EU countries.
:16:49. > :16:52.
:16:52. > :16:56.Swiss businesses. Switzerland exports more to the EU than we do.
:16:56. > :17:01.Switzerland is an example of a country that does take advantage of
:17:01. > :17:11.the single market, but has no power negotiating. And they are so poor as
:17:11. > :17:17.
:17:17. > :17:25.a result(!). Well, they are sitting on natural resources. If money is a
:17:25. > :17:28.matter resource! This is a nightmare for David Cameron. Cameron's problem
:17:28. > :17:38.in the renegotiation is, is he serious about walking away at the
:17:38. > :17:42.end of it and saying, we are out? It is obvious. People voting UKIP were
:17:42. > :17:45.determined to say it was a simple issue of in or out. The prime
:17:46. > :17:50.minister has complicated it with this attempt at renegotiation, which
:17:50. > :17:54.we are not sure of the definitions of, and it gets muddied. The
:17:54. > :17:59.difficulty for the PM is that next week, it is not the amendment we are
:17:59. > :18:03.talking about that will cause him trouble, it is the regret motion. He
:18:03. > :18:07.is pragmatic about that. That is why ministers will be able to vote for
:18:07. > :18:11.it. But the private members bill comes on Thursday. And as Phillips
:18:11. > :18:19.says, the government has no say over that. Will the government be trying
:18:19. > :18:21.to whip on that 's that is where it gets tricky from number ten. If the
:18:21. > :18:27.Euro-sceptic mood of the country deepens, even if the prime minister
:18:27. > :18:32.was to say, I brought back powers from Brussels, we should stay in on
:18:32. > :18:36.these new conditions, the British people might still say no thanks.
:18:36. > :18:41.my view, that is what the British people will do. They will not be
:18:41. > :18:46.convinced by renegotiation. That is what we heard from our friend here.
:18:46. > :18:56.The Europeans are in no mood to take Britain's exit threats seriously, so
:18:56. > :19:00.
:19:00. > :19:04.we might have to give it a shot. voted against Lisbon. There is a
:19:04. > :19:12.pro-European consensus in France at the moment. But the National Front
:19:12. > :19:18.is more powerful in France than UKIP. We have no UKIP in France.You
:19:18. > :19:21.have something worse in the National Front. It is an equivalent.The
:19:21. > :19:26.French people voted against the Lisbon Treaty, and the French
:19:26. > :19:30.government ignored them and went ahead. So why would you want to
:19:30. > :19:34.consult the people? The treaty was transformed. But you are right in
:19:34. > :19:38.saying it puts a real challenge to political parties, and we have to
:19:38. > :19:43.address those. But I don't think a referendum is the answer. Jobs are
:19:43. > :19:50.the answer. Speaking of jobs, why has your president turned out to be
:19:50. > :19:54.so useless? Don't say that! Look at what we are doing. He has
:19:54. > :20:02.implemented more than half of the 60 proposals which were part of his
:20:02. > :20:07.manifesto a year ago. And how much has unemployment gone up since?
:20:07. > :20:12.is 10.6%. And among young people? But I must also remind you that the
:20:12. > :20:22.country's economy is not as bad as here. You are in a recession.The
:20:22. > :20:29.
:20:29. > :20:38.French economy has grown more. We are all in this together. We are
:20:38. > :20:46.doing so much, but we can't see results in one year. We are forming
:20:46. > :20:51.the labour market. We have passed the banking law. I live in France.
:20:51. > :20:56.Reforming the labour market? You can't say things like that. I think
:20:56. > :21:03.we have just seen the new French presidential candidate! Thank you
:21:03. > :21:06.for coming in. " Syria first and foremost" ,
:21:06. > :21:09.according to the Kremlin press service, it is at the top of the
:21:09. > :21:14.agenda and the most important topic of conversation as David Cameron and
:21:14. > :21:18.Vladimir Putin meet in the southern Black Sea resort of Sochi today. But
:21:18. > :21:21.can the prime minister persuade Russia, a key ally of Syria's
:21:21. > :21:26.President Assad, to help bring the warring factions to the negotiating
:21:26. > :21:31.table and end a conflict which has caused the deaths of more than
:21:31. > :21:38.70,000 people? It is effectively a Syrian Civil War now. The BBC's
:21:38. > :21:46.Daniel Sandford is in Sochi. Are there any signs of the Russians
:21:46. > :21:51.moving, even imperceptibly, in their attitude towards Mr Assad's regime?
:21:51. > :21:57.There are just perceptible signs. There is a suggestion that they are
:21:57. > :22:02.a bit less likely to support him and a bit more likely to be able to see
:22:02. > :22:06.a Syria without him. But the key thing they have stuck to throughout
:22:06. > :22:09.the two-year conflict is that it should be the Syrian people who
:22:09. > :22:14.decide who should govern, and therefore, they don't want to see
:22:14. > :22:19.any settlement that says Mr Assad has to go first. That would leave
:22:19. > :22:22.open the possibility that the people of Syria may choose him to govern.
:22:22. > :22:26.It still remains a very difficult difference between Britain, America
:22:26. > :22:32.and France on the one hand and Russia on the other. David Cameron
:22:32. > :22:37.has come here in hope. He says he has spoken a couple of times to
:22:37. > :22:43.President Putin recently. The agenda here is more about repairing for the
:22:43. > :22:49.G8, the G20. Russia will take over as president of the G8. Both sides
:22:49. > :22:54.admit that at the top of that agenda is Syria. We were invited to see the
:22:54. > :22:58.beginning of their meeting. I thought it looked quite formal. The
:22:58. > :23:05.two don't really know each other well, but the words were very
:23:05. > :23:08.cordial and it was all about the Olympics and . Emit Putin saying he
:23:08. > :23:12.wants to take David Cameron and around the Olympic Park later. But
:23:12. > :23:19.David Cameron pointed out that one of his key issues is here. We will
:23:19. > :23:26.see what comes out of it. Have the British given any indication of what
:23:26. > :23:31.they could offer or what they could do to encourage the Russians to move
:23:31. > :23:38.more in the direction that Britain would like them to go? The language
:23:38. > :23:41.has changed. The language from John Kerry earlier this week changed when
:23:41. > :23:46.he met President Putin. And the language coming out of Downing
:23:46. > :23:51.Street briefings has changed. It was said to me that we will be saying to
:23:51. > :23:55.President Putin, yes, we understand your concern about extremists
:23:55. > :24:01.possibly taking over in Syria if President Assad were to stand aside.
:24:01. > :24:05.We have lots of common ground about what the solution to the Syrian
:24:05. > :24:10.conflict will be. It has to be a negotiated solution where all
:24:10. > :24:16.parties get round the table. They are trying to give open doors to
:24:16. > :24:21.Putin to walk through. But his position is that the outside world
:24:21. > :24:25.can't interfere in this in any significant way. He has become quite
:24:25. > :24:30.a long way from that position before anything meaningful can happen.
:24:31. > :24:34.Peace talks are due to happen this month, and at the G8 in Northern
:24:34. > :24:40.Ireland in June, everyone is hoping that by then, there may be something
:24:41. > :24:46.concrete. But I think it is still wishful thinking at the moment.
:24:46. > :24:50.Before I go, I should say that we are here in the residence, for many
:24:50. > :24:54.years, of Russian and Soviet leaders, beside the Black Sea in
:24:54. > :24:59.Sochi. As far as I know, you are the first people to broadcast live from
:24:59. > :25:08.inside the Russian leader's residence on the Black Sea. Another
:25:08. > :25:11.first for the Daily Politics. And it looks beautiful behind you. Have a
:25:11. > :25:15.good conference and get lots of information for Monday.
:25:15. > :25:25.Now, I am delighted to say that Bronwen Maddox has made it. You had
:25:25. > :25:25.
:25:25. > :25:35.trouble with the traffic. London was not at its best for me. And we have
:25:35. > :25:39.the former Foreign Secretary Malcolm Rifkind with us. You think we should
:25:39. > :25:47.be arming the rebels now? I have taken that view for the last 12
:25:47. > :25:56.months. That view came to me more easily than to the government. When
:25:56. > :26:02.you have crises of this kind, you look for a bad solution -- a good
:26:02. > :26:10.solution rather than a bad solution. But the longer this war goes on, the
:26:10. > :26:14.more people will die. 70,000 have died so far. It could go up to
:26:14. > :26:22.150,000 over the next year. Anything that stops that is preferable.
:26:23. > :26:26.Secondly, there is the rise of the Al-Qaeda-type organisation in
:26:26. > :26:29.north-eastern Syria. It is still a minority of the opposition, but it
:26:29. > :26:33.is undoubtedly the case that over the last year and a half, they have
:26:34. > :26:38.had access to arms and have been increasing their influence. They can
:26:38. > :26:42.control parts of the territory that have been removed from the control
:26:42. > :26:48.of the Syrian government. The more control they get, the more dangerous
:26:49. > :26:52.that becomes. Are you sure we would have the capability to be able to
:26:52. > :26:58.get the arms to what we would regard as the good guys rather than them
:26:58. > :27:05.falling into the hands of what we think are the bad guys? Quite a lot
:27:05. > :27:10.has happened over the last year and a half. We do now recognised the
:27:10. > :27:17.Syrian opposition as the legitimate voice of the Syrian people. There
:27:18. > :27:21.has been a lot of contact in Jordan and Turkey and elsewhere. The short
:27:21. > :27:27.answer is that you can't get it 100% right, but it would not be as
:27:27. > :27:31.difficult as it would have been in the past. What do you say to the
:27:31. > :27:35.idea that this would be like pouring petrol onto a fire, that the ethnic
:27:35. > :27:41.structure and rivalries in Syria make Iraq look like a simple nursery
:27:41. > :27:50.and the whole place would be a conflagration? Needs of the --
:27:50. > :27:54.neither the West nor Iran created the war. That war is happening. Many
:27:54. > :27:59.innocent people have died. It is not just a fire, it is already a
:27:59. > :28:03.conflagration. The question is how you can best bring this conflict to
:28:03. > :28:06.an end as soon as possible. Part of it will be diplomatic, part of it
:28:06. > :28:11.may be sanctions. But the most decisive consideration will be
:28:11. > :28:16.military. If the insurgents are able, because the Assad regime is
:28:16. > :28:19.not short of military hardware, because they started off with most
:28:19. > :28:24.of it and they have received some from Iran and possibly Russia over
:28:24. > :28:28.the last few years, and unless that balance is tipped in the right
:28:28. > :28:32.direction, this conflict goes on for another few years, we all ring our
:28:32. > :28:37.hands, and thousands more die and the Al-Qaeda-type people
:28:37. > :28:43.increasingly take power in parts of the country. Bronwyn, what do you
:28:44. > :28:48.say? Malcolm Rifkind has made two good points, the humanitarian one
:28:48. > :28:53.and the threat of Al-Qaeda rising. But your conclusion is wrong.
:28:53. > :29:01.Putting in more arms into this immensely unstable country is
:29:01. > :29:04.putting more fuel on the fire. Our record of picking the good guys has
:29:04. > :29:13.not been great. You can't be sure that the good guys will stay your
:29:13. > :29:21.friends. People can turn on you. The talks are fantastically frustrating
:29:21. > :29:28.as it is. Talks have begun to open up between Russia, John Kerry and
:29:28. > :29:36.Britain will stop there may be the chance of something different.
:29:36. > :29:42.Russia might be able to change position and save face. It is
:29:42. > :29:49.calling for international peace talks, and Russia could now say, we
:29:49. > :29:53.have tried this and we can now back away. There is at least an opening
:29:53. > :29:58.where Russia can begin to change its view. I don't necessarily disagree
:29:58. > :30:01.with that. It is not a stark choice of either pursuing a diplomatic
:30:01. > :30:07.route or giving greater help to the insurgents. The one would contribute
:30:07. > :30:10.to the other. You have to ask why it is now that Russia and the United
:30:10. > :30:15.States have come sufficiently close together to call for an
:30:15. > :30:19.international conference. That could be the beginnings of a date-type
:30:19. > :30:23.process that leads to a resolution. At in terms of putting pressure on
:30:24. > :30:29.the Assad regime to accept the need for a political solution to this,
:30:29. > :30:33.they will be influenced in the right direction if they realised the West
:30:33. > :30:37.is now prepared, in the absence of such a solution, to give material
:30:37. > :30:41.and military help to the insurgents. On the other hand, the
:30:41. > :30:49.opposition may be less willing to do any kind of deal if they think a
:30:49. > :30:53.giant shipment of arms is coming down way. The Let me add to that
:30:53. > :30:59.point. It may be possible for us to switch on and off that extra
:30:59. > :31:02.military help. If they is to cooperate. I cannot think of an
:31:02. > :31:06.example where you put a load of guns into a country and you can get them
:31:07. > :31:11.out again. They are not on strings. No, this does not happen overnight.
:31:11. > :31:18.The idea that you are the insurgents, it is not done in 24
:31:18. > :31:21.hours. It is a gradual build-up. -- arm the insurgents. At any stage,
:31:21. > :31:28.the process could be halted at the insurgents were acting unreasonably.
:31:28. > :31:36.I wish I agreed, but is -- it is an illusion of control. What would
:31:36. > :31:39.happen if the Russians responded with more weapons for Mr Assad, and
:31:39. > :31:43.the Iranians? A lot of his hardware at the moment is more powerful than
:31:43. > :31:48.what the rebels has but it goes back to Soviet times. What if they got
:31:48. > :31:52.some modern stuff? That is part of the problem. When we had an embargo
:31:52. > :31:55.in Bosnia, it was a UN embargo which applied to everyone. The only
:31:55. > :31:58.important that exists at the moment is an EU embargo on the Russians and
:31:58. > :32:02.Iranians have not only been supplying weapons, they have not
:32:02. > :32:07.been breaking any embargo to which they were party in doing so. I get
:32:08. > :32:12.the impression that there is a mood in the British Government,
:32:12. > :32:15.particularly in the Warren office, moving in Malcolm Rifkind 's
:32:15. > :32:20.direction. They are reaching towards what he has been suggesting will
:32:20. > :32:25.stop there is a twin track at the moment, the PM today making the
:32:25. > :32:31.point of making a attempt for a political settlement. That is the
:32:31. > :32:39.worst case scenario. -- making an attempt. Another ten are keen on
:32:39. > :32:42.leadership change. There was a hint this week that Russia were not tied
:32:42. > :32:47.to any one particular individual. The Foreign Office sees a glimmer of
:32:47. > :32:51.hope there. They are not naive but they want to push the weapons issue
:32:51. > :32:59.because it is a pretty good stick with which to beat President Assad.
:32:59. > :33:02.My Syrian friends tell me that the Al Whites around the regime will
:33:02. > :33:07.fight to the end because they know that if they do not, they believe
:33:07. > :33:11.they will all be killed. They do believe that, and there is a risk
:33:11. > :33:16.that that could happen. They are 15% of the population. They cannot
:33:16. > :33:21.prevent the other 85% of the population wanting a political
:33:21. > :33:25.change towards a more released and open society. That 85% is not
:33:25. > :33:31.homogeneous in any way. It is not in the objective of the West must be to
:33:31. > :33:34.put whatever pressure is needed on the Syrian opposition that will one
:33:34. > :33:41.day become the government to ensure that you respect the rights, not
:33:41. > :33:47.just of the Al Whites, but of other minorities, Christians and Kurds,
:33:47. > :33:50.that have serious and understandable concerns. Cos of all its gas and
:33:51. > :33:58.yes, the Assad regime played to these minorities. -- Alawites. That
:33:58. > :34:04.is where they got their support. That was not a spurious argument. It
:34:04. > :34:09.has to be taken into concern. a number of Christian supporters
:34:09. > :34:13.that were very worried. Let me bring you back to a matter more at home.
:34:13. > :34:17.What do you make of your former Cabinet colleagues sitting around a
:34:17. > :34:25.table, probably with a single European market at that is being
:34:25. > :34:30.negotiated? I will go through them, Mr Lassen, Mr Lamont, Michael
:34:30. > :34:34.Portillo. -- Mr Lassen. Why have you not join them two I have not joined
:34:34. > :34:39.them because I start with a different set of assumptions.
:34:39. > :34:42.have you not join them? I think of myself as a moderate. I do not want
:34:42. > :34:47.Britain to join the single currency but I do not accept the argument
:34:47. > :34:51.Nigel Lawson is using that you have a stark choice between either
:34:51. > :34:56.accepting gradual moves towards a federal Europe or leaving you as
:34:56. > :35:01.soon as possible. He is quite right to say that the consequence of the
:35:01. > :35:06.Eurozone crisis is that for at least 17 other countries, they will end up
:35:06. > :35:10.in a con federal system. That is a correct analysis. We already have a
:35:10. > :35:16.European Union that is very diverse with different kinds of membership.
:35:16. > :35:20.11 members are not members of the Eurozone. Some countries are not in
:35:20. > :35:23.-- participating with the fence because of neutral status. For the
:35:23. > :35:27.United Kingdom to seek to have greater assurances that it will not
:35:27. > :35:31.be pushed into further forms of social integration and domestic
:35:31. > :35:37.policy, that we will not tolerate, that is going to be difficult, but
:35:37. > :35:40.my second criticism of Nigel is when he rubbished or tried to rubbished
:35:40. > :35:44.David Cameron 's negotiating prospects. He should think back to
:35:45. > :35:51.the Prime Minister we served under, Margaret Thatcher. When she started
:35:51. > :35:54.negotiating, it was one against the world. And her negotiation started
:35:54. > :36:00.far more -- in a more difficult context than David Cameron's because
:36:00. > :36:03.every pound of rebate she won back, somebody else had to pay for. Every
:36:03. > :36:08.other member state was going to have to fork out more when she eventually
:36:08. > :36:13.won. So David Cameron is Margaret Thatcher? I'm saying that the kind
:36:13. > :36:18.of changes he is making, like getting us out of the working time
:36:18. > :36:21.directive, the way that doctors and nurses work in British hospitals, if
:36:21. > :36:29.you change it is does not have any effect on France, Germany, Spain,
:36:29. > :36:32.Italy. This is doctrinally stuff that we have been bound into. I am
:36:32. > :36:36.not saying it will be any easy negotiation but actually he is
:36:36. > :36:41.starting off with the task which is very difficult, but it is not as
:36:41. > :36:45.difficult as Thatcher had in the 1980s. I wonder about that. But they
:36:45. > :36:53.do not want to go there because I think she had one simple aim in
:36:53. > :36:57.mind, but he has to negotiate across a lot of issues. But it is worth
:36:57. > :37:00.bearing in mind that when a country has legitimate concerns, when they
:37:00. > :37:10.are put forward consistently and hopefully with courtesy, but with
:37:10. > :37:10.
:37:10. > :37:13.strength, then ultimately other countries, every other head in
:37:13. > :37:16.Europe is domestically elected and understands that these are important
:37:16. > :37:20.issues that are divisive. Copper mines is the motherboard in thing.
:37:20. > :37:30.One final question, Michael Portillo was in the studio last night saying
:37:30. > :37:35.that he did not agree that they would get very much back but if they
:37:35. > :37:42.did not then David Cameron would still vote to stay in. -- compromise
:37:42. > :37:44.is the most important thing. I think that is likely, but it is not what
:37:44. > :37:47.the Prime Minister says that will determine the outcome. The
:37:47. > :37:51.comparison that Nigel Lawson was making was with Harold Wilson's
:37:51. > :37:55.because the ocean. He got nothing back. I know and notwithstanding
:37:55. > :37:59.that, at that particular time it was not too difficult for him to win a
:38:00. > :38:04.referendum. It will be more difficult. But every part of the
:38:04. > :38:13.media apart from the express in the morning Star backed him. And it is a
:38:13. > :38:16.different European Union now. I think David Cameron not only had to
:38:16. > :38:21.recommend staying in happy has renegotiated, but he has been
:38:21. > :38:25.achieved real substance as a result of the negotiation. I think it can
:38:25. > :38:30.be done but I am not pretending it will be easy. One final thing, if he
:38:30. > :38:34.came back with nothing and we had a referendum, how would you vote them?
:38:34. > :38:39.That is rather like saying if there was a referendum tomorrow. With lots
:38:39. > :38:44.of caveats and without any real enthusiasm, I would vote to stay in
:38:44. > :38:48.because for a range of reasons which I could happily tell you... Milk,
:38:48. > :38:53.no, we're running out of time. believe that now we have knocked
:38:53. > :38:58.out, and we are locked into a referendum if there is any proposal
:38:58. > :39:08.to -- to enhance powers in Europe, I could cope with that. So you are in.
:39:08. > :39:14.
:39:14. > :39:16.Correct. It is to re-won so far. -- the re-won so far.
:39:16. > :39:20.Workers on the Transport Select Committee say that Heathrow need
:39:20. > :39:25.four runways and they have rubbished Boris Johnson's ideas they have
:39:25. > :39:29.export -- harbour airport in the Thames estuary. There is what Boris
:39:29. > :39:35.had to say about it. I think you have to look at what the MPs are
:39:35. > :39:39.saying about their solution. They want to create a fourth runway to
:39:39. > :39:46.the west of London, and move he wrote to the west. It might be
:39:46. > :39:50.cheaper to move London to the east. They are proposing things that are
:39:50. > :39:55.not costed. You have to look at the real long-term benefits from having
:39:55. > :40:00.a new airport to the east of London, avoiding millions of
:40:00. > :40:08.Londoners suffering from XS aircraft noise. There is no other great city
:40:08. > :40:15.in the world that would do this to its citizens and in trench a massive
:40:15. > :40:19.planning and location mistake of decades ago. That was Boris with --
:40:19. > :40:21.that is -- that was Boris and with us is the chair of the Transport
:40:21. > :40:28.Select Committee. Why did you conclude that Boris was wrong?
:40:28. > :40:32.looked at the possibility of building a new airport, and we need
:40:32. > :40:39.more help capacity. First, there is cost. There is not much information
:40:39. > :40:43.around but the commission shows it would cost up to �30 billion for
:40:43. > :40:47.infrastructure alone. Heathrow airport would have to close, with
:40:47. > :40:52.the massive disruption that that would involve. There are major
:40:52. > :40:57.environmental issues. The area is a habitat for 300,000 birds. There are
:40:57. > :41:02.major problems with finance dislocation and environment.
:41:02. > :41:08.billion, does that include not just the cost of building Boris Island,
:41:08. > :41:12.but does it include the massive cost of reconfiguring the infrastructure
:41:12. > :41:20.towards the east of London which it has not got at the moment? New
:41:20. > :41:25.motorways, new Rhyl were lines. was about access to the airport
:41:25. > :41:29.itself but it was only an assessment. There will also be
:41:29. > :41:33.compensation for closing down Heathrow. -- new railway lines.
:41:33. > :41:38.in the principle of the Scottish Parliament, I guess we can assumed
:41:39. > :41:43.that �30 billion would end up �60 billion or �160 billion. This is an
:41:43. > :41:51.assessment on a range of possibilities. If you rule out Boris
:41:52. > :41:56.Island, but you think we still need a single hub in the south-east, also
:41:56. > :42:05.-- almost by default is that Heathrow? We need increased hot
:42:05. > :42:08.capacity and that means it should be at Heathrow. -- hub. There is a
:42:08. > :42:14.strong case for an additional runway but we also think that we need to
:42:14. > :42:20.look at other things for the future. Did you take a view on where the
:42:21. > :42:30.third one we should be? We did not look at the detail of that. -- third
:42:31. > :42:34.
:42:34. > :42:38.runway show. A number of proposals in the melting pot. To the west,
:42:38. > :42:44.next to Windsor Castle? Did you call the Queen? ! She should never have
:42:44. > :42:48.bought that hassle on the flightpath! This has been, if you
:42:48. > :42:51.were to stand back and look at things with out any party hat on,
:42:51. > :42:58.this has been a huge decision about the future of our country which the
:42:59. > :43:01.main parties have bought. Your party for the last election in favour of a
:43:01. > :43:05.third runway and lost, and then changed its mind. The Tories plotted
:43:06. > :43:10.against a third runway, and are clearly now trying to move towards
:43:10. > :43:16.something like a third runway. The parties have not covered themselves
:43:16. > :43:20.in glory. You are right. It is one of those issues that is too
:43:20. > :43:23.difficult. But it matters so much to the country in the economy and jobs.
:43:24. > :43:28.Somebody's going to have to grasp the nettle and the government has
:43:28. > :43:35.set up the Davis commission. It has told not to report until after the
:43:35. > :43:40.next general election. I wonder why(!) After that, somebody will
:43:40. > :43:44.have to take a decision. How do you read this, Paul Waugh? I think it
:43:44. > :43:50.will do a lot of the spadework for the Davis Commission, this work from
:43:50. > :43:54.today. I think you will be interested in the paragraphs that
:43:54. > :43:59.dismiss Boris Island. Some of his critics say that he is very good at
:43:59. > :44:03.splashing the cash on his own schemes and �30 billion is a lot of
:44:03. > :44:06.money for something that is basically what they say, just an
:44:06. > :44:12.issue about a few people in west London trying to protect their
:44:12. > :44:15.flight plans, rather than economic growth. Some of the Treasury are
:44:15. > :44:18.coming around to that. It is clear that that is where the party is
:44:18. > :44:23.going. Labour will have to come around to that opinion, too, by
:44:23. > :44:28.2015. Boris is in Belfast today, why? Because he's going to a factory
:44:28. > :44:35.urges going to build the new buses which are costing �350,000 each.
:44:35. > :44:45.Each. At least they are being done in Britain. Yes, but that is a lot
:44:45. > :44:45.
:44:45. > :44:49.of money. Where are you on this?I think we have dismissed Boris Island
:44:49. > :44:53.too quickly. There was a marvellous couple of paragraphs, demolishing
:44:53. > :44:59.something that does not exist yet, but the KC has made, right, he wants
:44:59. > :45:02.to spend a lot of money and it is a set of plans for spending a lot of
:45:02. > :45:06.money in the Southeast. But he has a point that if you were starting from
:45:06. > :45:16.scratch, you would not put the major airports serving Britain and the
:45:16. > :45:16.
:45:16. > :45:19.south-east where it is. But we are not starting from scratch. We would
:45:19. > :45:28.not have a monarchy if we were starting from scratch. That is an
:45:28. > :45:32.interesting question. But we have the chances that the chance with
:45:32. > :45:36.this to say, look, where are we going to build this? But we are not
:45:36. > :45:40.very good at these projects. We are not very good at the economics and
:45:41. > :45:44.the assessment of them, and this figure of �30 billion needs a lot of
:45:44. > :45:50.chipping away. I thought that �30 billion would be an absolute
:45:50. > :45:54.minimum. That came from an independent assessment made by the
:45:54. > :45:58.consultants. It was an assessment of the range of costs. All we could
:45:58. > :46:05.work on work proposals, not fully worked out, which are out there in a
:46:05. > :46:12.semipublic arena. It is a fallacy to think that there would be no
:46:12. > :46:14.problems with a new airport. It would not be. You would also have to
:46:14. > :46:18.have new infrastructure so the rest of Britain could get to that part of
:46:18. > :46:25.London. It is easy for the rest of Britain to get to the west of
:46:25. > :46:29.London, easier to get there than the east of London. I live in West
:46:29. > :46:33.London. We're not bad people. It is easier if you are in Merseyside MP
:46:33. > :46:38.to take this position. Is that fair? This is the view of the cross-party
:46:38. > :46:41.committee Conservatives again. any west London MPs are there on the
:46:42. > :46:51.committee? We do have some.I'm going to check! Thank you for
:46:51. > :46:56.coming. Now, Britain needs money, and China has got lots of it.
:46:57. > :47:00.David Cameron wants Britain to win export deals over the next two
:47:00. > :47:08.years, but can we do business with Beijing while criticising its human
:47:08. > :47:12.rights record, which is patchy? That is probably British understatement.
:47:12. > :47:17.Gerard Street, a delicious slice of China in the heart of London. The
:47:17. > :47:21.Chinese have been in Britain for centuries, and we, with varying
:47:21. > :47:24.degrees of friendliness, have been in China for as long. The upper hand
:47:24. > :47:30.in that relationship has changed from time to time, but these days,
:47:30. > :47:33.it is clear that we need them a lots more than they need us. This is the
:47:33. > :47:38.traditional manifestation of the Chinese in Britain, but their real
:47:38. > :47:44.power lies behind-the-scenes. investment side, last year was a
:47:44. > :47:50.record year. 10 million in sterling from China to various industries
:47:50. > :47:54.including infrastructure, which is important. Our trade was up 13.5%
:47:54. > :47:59.last year, more than any other EU country to China. There are exposed
:47:59. > :48:04.to as increased as well, so we are on track to a bilateral trading
:48:04. > :48:10.relationship of 100 billion sterling by 2015. There is even a feeling
:48:10. > :48:15.that if two of written's biggest infrastructure projects are to
:48:15. > :48:20.happen, Chinese investment will be vital. But there is a snag. China's
:48:20. > :48:24.human rights record does not stack up well. Over the years, Amnesty
:48:24. > :48:29.International have documented a wide range of human rights abuses ranging
:48:29. > :48:34.from the clamp-down on freedom of expression and freedom of assembly,
:48:34. > :48:37.freedom of religion, death penalty, torture, cruel treatment, the list
:48:37. > :48:41.goes on. Beijing took a dim view when the Dalai Lama was broke to
:48:41. > :48:44.Britain, leading to fears that political and trade links could be
:48:44. > :48:50.damaged. While Downing Street have played that down, some business
:48:50. > :48:55.leaders believe we do have a choice to make. As a nation, we have to
:48:55. > :48:59.decide whether we set out our stall by example and then get on and trade
:48:59. > :49:02.with the world, which we need to do to prosper and grow the economy, or
:49:02. > :49:08.or whether we preach to the rest of the world on how they should behave.
:49:08. > :49:11.But there is a danger in that. The UK is no longer an imperial nation.
:49:11. > :49:18.We are not in control of what the rest of the world does. All we can
:49:18. > :49:21.do is set out our stall by example. Bear in mind, this is high-stakes
:49:21. > :49:26.diplomacy. It is important to get the political relationship right. We
:49:26. > :49:29.have different views, so there will be differences of opinion, and both
:49:29. > :49:34.sides recognise that. We have to engage and work our way through them
:49:34. > :49:38.and make sure differences in political views don't interrupt the
:49:38. > :49:43.important trading relationship which is going so well. So how do we avoid
:49:43. > :49:47.rocking the boat too much, while still being able to speak our minds?
:49:47. > :49:51.It is about creating a dialogue with the Chinese on human rights. We have
:49:51. > :49:54.seen dramatic change in China over the years. We have seen an
:49:54. > :49:58.increasingly affluent middle-class arise, we have seen workers
:49:58. > :50:03.demonstrate on pay and working conditions. It is in the Chinese
:50:03. > :50:07.interest to embrace this and work with countries like the UK on how
:50:07. > :50:11.best to utilise all of that energy to promote good governance and human
:50:11. > :50:14.rights practice. One of our favourite Chinese imports, but
:50:14. > :50:19.generally pretty frustrating. The challenge for politicians dashed to
:50:19. > :50:28.make sure our trading relationship with China is a bit more productive
:50:28. > :50:32.than this guy has been so far. Here is the dilemma. Britain needs
:50:32. > :50:37.to export a lot more to China. Our record of doing so is pretty
:50:37. > :50:43.lamentable, and the Eurozone is on its back. So we need to get into the
:50:43. > :50:47.emerging markets. On the other hand, china's record in Tibet is barbaric
:50:47. > :50:53.and we, the British, feel we should be free to say that. How do you
:50:53. > :51:01.resolve it? Britain should hang tough on the human rights issue.
:51:01. > :51:06.Keep meeting the Dalai Lama, and so on. China has been keen to say that
:51:06. > :51:13.it is very big in Britain, but it does not have all the cards. It has
:51:13. > :51:18.its own problems, and its paranoia about the Dalai Lama is a sign of
:51:18. > :51:22.the concerns among the leadership about holding the country together.
:51:22. > :51:26.I think British companies are up to continuing to find their way in, as
:51:26. > :51:34.German companies have done the decades. Mrs Merkel has seen the
:51:34. > :51:44.Dalai Lama? A very good point.I am not sure. There is a historic tie
:51:44. > :51:44.
:51:45. > :51:51.between China and Britain. Should our trade policy be hijacked by an
:51:51. > :51:55.unelected spiritual leader? Number ten both. You have to respect the
:51:55. > :52:00.demands for human rights in Tibet, while at the same time making sure
:52:00. > :52:08.you have a productive economic relationship. Mrs Merkel has met the
:52:08. > :52:13.Dalai Lama, she just called me to say so. This week, Malcolm Rifkind
:52:13. > :52:17.was helpful to David Cameron during the Queen's Speech. He intervened to
:52:18. > :52:23.give him the chance to offer an olive branch to China. The PM could
:52:23. > :52:27.say, we recognise china's sovereignty into debt. That was a
:52:27. > :52:31.clear signal to Beijing. Although we have met the Dalai Lama, we are
:52:32. > :52:35.still interested in a working relationship. That was significant.
:52:35. > :52:38.China has a choice at this point. Will it listen to some of the
:52:38. > :52:43.complaints that other countries have, for example over cyber
:52:44. > :52:48.hacking? Or is it going to say, we will be a superpower but we will not
:52:48. > :52:53.observe the rules or engage? There will be pressure on China coming
:52:53. > :52:56.from other governments as it gets bigger. It is possible to have it
:52:56. > :53:01.both ways, to keep making these points, because China will have to
:53:01. > :53:04.listen. Without further ceremony, an item
:53:04. > :53:11.even shorter than the Queen's Speech. Here is the week in 60
:53:11. > :53:15.seconds. Queen's Speech time this week, and
:53:15. > :53:18.surprise appearances included Charles and Camilla. Not so
:53:18. > :53:25.surprised appearances? A raft of Bill's critics claimed were designed
:53:25. > :53:29.to appeal -- appease you give voters. The Dean Doris was taken off
:53:29. > :53:39.the naughty step and reinstated as a Tory MP -- Nadine Dorries. Talking
:53:39. > :53:40.
:53:40. > :53:45.of naughty steps, Nick Clegg criticised the plan over childcare.
:53:45. > :53:50.Any of us would find it tough to look after two-year-olds. There was
:53:50. > :53:54.more excitement to Prince Charles on Wednesday after he heard that a
:53:55. > :54:00.lengthy and distinguished reign was coming to an end. But his hopes were
:54:00. > :54:03.dashed when David Moyes was appointed to replace Alex Ferguson.
:54:03. > :54:13.Ed and Dave could not resist getting in on the act, tweeting their views
:54:13. > :54:16.
:54:16. > :54:20.at two in the morning. Really, lads? But the week is not over yet,
:54:20. > :54:24.because we are getting news this morning that Abu Qatada's lawyers
:54:24. > :54:32.have told the British court that if the Jordanian parliament ratifies
:54:32. > :54:38.this agreement that no evidence obtained by torture can be
:54:38. > :54:42.admissible in a Jordanian court, he will go back to Jordan, an
:54:42. > :54:46.interesting development. Is this the final breakthrough, or his lawyers
:54:46. > :54:50.up to something? The Home Office are hopeful that this could be a proper
:54:50. > :54:55.breakthrough. They have put a lot of effort into getting this agreement
:54:55. > :54:59.with the Jordanians, and now even Abu Qatada's lawyers are saying, if
:54:59. > :55:04.you can pin it down, he will go back of his own free will. It is a
:55:04. > :55:09.win-win for Theresa May. Why would he agree to do this? I can't see
:55:09. > :55:13.why. I am not sure it is the end of the story at all. I know Belmarsh is
:55:13. > :55:17.not the nicest place, but I am sure it is better than a Jordanian jail.
:55:17. > :55:27.This does not feel like the end of the story to me. It does not add
:55:27. > :55:28.
:55:28. > :55:32.up. Exactly.Even if they don't use evidence obtained under torture, the
:55:32. > :55:36.chances are that he is still going down in Jordan. You would have
:55:36. > :55:39.thought so, but maybe there is some arrangement we don't know about with
:55:39. > :55:47.the Jordanians whereby he is concerned kind of assurances through
:55:47. > :55:57.his lawyers that he will have a sentence, but not so severe. We need
:55:57. > :55:59.
:55:59. > :56:05.to find out more. I am simply going to nod. Where do the Tories all go
:56:05. > :56:09.on this referendum now? David Cameron has created this huge
:56:10. > :56:14.problem for himself. The year ago, he was whipping his own MPs against
:56:14. > :56:18.a European in-out referendum. Now the policy has shifted, not
:56:18. > :56:21.necessarily because of UKIP. It shifted at the beginning of the year
:56:22. > :56:24.towards and in-out referendum, but they have not quite got to the
:56:24. > :56:32.position where they believe in it. A lot of backbenchers have a clear
:56:32. > :56:36.position saying out, all very strict conditions if they were going to
:56:36. > :56:41.stay in. It is messy at the moment. It is not easy to communicate to the
:56:41. > :56:45.voters. The Tory strategy is to say to voters that if you want a
:56:45. > :56:49.referendum, you can only get it by voting Conservative and giving the
:56:49. > :56:55.Tories an overall majority. Do you detect any signs that either Labour
:56:55. > :57:04.or the Lib Dems could shoot that Fox by saying, all right, we will give
:57:04. > :57:09.you a referendum? This does not show David Cameron as a good politician.
:57:09. > :57:13.He has fallen into a trap and has been running scared of supposedly
:57:13. > :57:22.integration that the euro zone might achieve. The Eurozone has not got a
:57:22. > :57:26.clue as to how it will get there. is going into the next election with
:57:26. > :57:30.an economic record which is nowhere near the kind he hoped he would be
:57:31. > :57:36.heading to 2015 with. It will not be a job done economic record by any
:57:36. > :57:40.means, so he needs something else. Europe will firstly hope to see off
:57:41. > :57:47.UKIP, he hopes, but it is also a good debating point for him with the
:57:47. > :57:51.campaign? It is. He is trying to park Europe as an issue in a way.
:57:51. > :57:55.The next general election will be decided on economic growth and jobs.
:57:55. > :58:00.They are crossing their fingers that growth will go up a bit next year.
:58:00. > :58:05.And there on the -- there are indications that it could happen.
:58:05. > :58:09.Time to find out the answer to our quiz. The question was, Michael Gove
:58:09. > :58:18.has criticised the use of children's characters in a GCSE history lesson
:58:18. > :58:28.plan about the Nazis. Who was he talking about? Mr Men? Specifically,
:58:28. > :58:28.
:58:28. > :58:34.Mr topsy-turvy. And this is not in the nursery, this is for GCSEs?
:58:34. > :58:40.GCSEs teaching Hitler. You couldn't make it up. Why didn't they choose
:58:40. > :58:45.Mr Strong? He did not have the moustache. That is it today. Thanks
:58:45. > :58:48.to our guests. The one o'clock News is starting on BBC One. I will be