:00:40. > :00:43.Afternoon, folks. Welcome to the Daily Politics. French President
:00:44. > :00:48.Francois Hollande pops across La Manche to meet David Cameron. Later
:00:49. > :00:54.on, they are off for a pint in a pub. On the agenda, energy, defence.
:00:55. > :00:56.And the future of Britain in the EU. The Prime Minister suffers another
:00:57. > :01:02.large-scale backbench rebellion with 86 Tory MPs voting against
:01:03. > :01:07.government policy. We'll discuss Mr Cameron's party problems. Danny
:01:08. > :01:13.Alexander tries to bowl Ed Balls a googly over his plans to reduce the
:01:14. > :01:18.deficit. Labour say it is just not cricket. In our latest look at
:01:19. > :01:21.influential political thinkers, financial journalist Louise Cooper
:01:22. > :01:34.tells us all you need to know about Friedrich Hayek. This Austrian
:01:35. > :01:46.upstart trick on Keynes. For that committee is incredibly brave. --
:01:47. > :01:50.took on. All that in the next hour. And with us for the duration, Zoe
:01:51. > :01:53.Williams. She writes a column for the Guardian and describes herself
:01:54. > :01:57.as a bon viveur, so she's taking us for lunch after the show. And by Tim
:01:58. > :02:01.Shipman, he writes for the Daily Mail but is soon off to be political
:02:02. > :02:04.editor of the Sunday Times. It wouldn't have happened in my day.
:02:05. > :02:08.First, today, let's talk about the Immigration Bill. We throw the word
:02:09. > :02:10.farce around fairly liberally here at Westminster. But it certainly
:02:11. > :02:14.applied to events in the Commons yesterday. It all centred around an
:02:15. > :02:17.amendment to the bill by the Tory backbencher, Dominic Raab. He wanted
:02:18. > :02:20.to stop foreign prisoners using the right to family life, enshrined in
:02:21. > :02:25.the Human Rights Act, to stay in Britain. Now here's where it gets
:02:26. > :02:28.complicated. The Government said Dominic Raab's amendment was illegal
:02:29. > :02:31.and unworkable. But ministers said they would rather abstain on the
:02:32. > :02:37.vote rather than risk unecessary confrontation with backbench rebels.
:02:38. > :02:41.In the end, the bill itself passed easily, thanks to Labour and Lib Dem
:02:42. > :02:47.votes but 86 Tories rebelled on the Raab amendment. So, is this a case
:02:48. > :02:57.of the Tory backbench tail wagging the dog? Let's have a look at the
:02:58. > :03:03.debate. Is the Government going to vote for it, against it or abstain?
:03:04. > :03:08.I would say that what I am doing is indicating a few comments I have in
:03:09. > :03:11.relation to this. I would like to hear my honourable friend speak on
:03:12. > :03:17.this issue and here indeed whether he does intend to move this
:03:18. > :03:21.amendment. You really do have to study the case law of the
:03:22. > :03:26.immigration Tribunal to appreciate the extent to which these cases walk
:03:27. > :03:29.the moral balance of British justice, endanger the public and,
:03:30. > :03:38.frankly, for many people outside of this place, make Newman writes dirty
:03:39. > :03:48.words. I recognise the concerns my friends have about inability to the
:03:49. > :03:53.port foreign criminals. How could she tell the Prime Minister, I
:03:54. > :03:58.propose the Government should not support the amendment because it
:03:59. > :04:01.should not be compatible with the easy HR and counter-productive. The
:04:02. > :04:14.Home Secretary, responsible for enforcing law and order in Britain,
:04:15. > :04:23.is sitting there. It is a shambles. Is anyone watching? It is a real
:04:24. > :04:28.shame. It is a shame for me. I always thought Dominick Raab was
:04:29. > :04:37.normal. He is intelligent. He seemed to be quite smart. This seemed to be
:04:38. > :04:44.quite unworkable on any basis. He knew it was not a real issue. He
:04:45. > :04:49.knew it was just a way of getting the Government on the back foot.
:04:50. > :04:55.There is a terrible mismanagement. If he is trying to force a wedge
:04:56. > :05:01.between... He is trying to highlight that, it is a long game. It is not
:05:02. > :05:05.just between the high command and the backbenches, it does not look as
:05:06. > :05:10.if the Prime Minister promised to tell the Home Secretary how they
:05:11. > :05:17.would vote or not on this matter. Number ten web easy breathing people
:05:18. > :05:25.like myself that they were going to abstain. -- Number ten was busy
:05:26. > :05:30.briefing people. The whole situation, he has avoided a massive
:05:31. > :05:36.confrontation with backbenchers and avoided splitting the party. He has
:05:37. > :05:43.shown he is cared about what they were thinking about. The alternative
:05:44. > :05:51.was to back an amendment he believed was illegal. That is what they say
:05:52. > :05:56.about Cameron. The way to deal with rebels is either to grout them or
:05:57. > :06:03.give in to them. He freezes them out and then gives into them. There is
:06:04. > :06:07.no question that it raises real problems about his party management
:06:08. > :06:15.skills, which he has had from the start they seem to be accumulating.
:06:16. > :06:20.I come back to the question, does anyone outside 500 yards off here
:06:21. > :06:25.care? The one thing we noticed more and more, we get e-mails and
:06:26. > :06:29.tweets, the machinations of Westminster are of no interest to
:06:30. > :06:33.the country at all. It is a tragedy that people out there do not care.
:06:34. > :06:39.They will have to thought about this. The Tory party is divided and
:06:40. > :06:45.things at the centre are vaguely shambolic, which they are. Neither
:06:46. > :06:50.of those things is something that David Cameron wants the public to
:06:51. > :06:55.have in its mind. All you need is a general perception of division and
:06:56. > :06:59.then it does matter. The press has no import in telling people how to
:07:00. > :07:04.vote, whatever we think we can do. We can make a government pay united
:07:05. > :07:10.or divided. That is a huge difference. This government makes
:07:11. > :07:16.itself appears so divided. The thing with Cameron, we say this has no
:07:17. > :07:22.connection to normal people but it does. They are trying to bring UKIP
:07:23. > :07:27.defectors back into the fold. Anything that sets up a fight
:07:28. > :07:33.between the more UKIP against the less UKIP plays to some level to
:07:34. > :07:38.that faction. That is a huge deal. There have been a number of voices
:07:39. > :07:43.saying it is time the backbench Tories stop this death wish, there
:07:44. > :07:48.is an election looming. It is time he showed more loyalty and
:07:49. > :07:58.discipline. Mr Michael Howard was on the radio earlier this week saying
:07:59. > :08:02.the same thing. Here is a question. Even in the Spectator. You can see,
:08:03. > :08:07.as the election approaches, that will have some weight because they
:08:08. > :08:12.want to win, most of them anyway. Doesn't the headless chicken
:08:13. > :08:18.tendency get a new lease of life when the Tories get lumped in the
:08:19. > :08:22.European elections? What is interesting about what happened
:08:23. > :08:27.yesterday is that Cameron decided not to pick a fight with the Dominic
:08:28. > :08:32.Raab group of backbenchers. As Tory backbenchers go, he is normal. The
:08:33. > :08:37.other amendment which caused a problem, the Nigel Mills amendment,
:08:38. > :08:41.that was clearly illegal. It was also much more from the wing of the
:08:42. > :08:45.party that wants to have a fight about Europe. Dominic Raab is seen
:08:46. > :08:51.as an international lawyer who wants to make a serious point. A lot of us
:08:52. > :09:04.think he will end up as A Minister. He says, when you look at the case
:09:05. > :09:15.law, everyone looks at the case law. The -- it is not like the ban
:09:16. > :09:19.against torture which has no caveat. He was simply trying to get some
:09:20. > :09:30.guidance to the judges that they have given too much weight to the
:09:31. > :09:37.caveats, sorry, they have not given any weight to the caveat. We can
:09:38. > :09:42.ignore the right to a family life. Their body has to take any notice of
:09:43. > :09:48.that. That is not right. Legally, it would not stand up. He did not pick
:09:49. > :09:53.this fight. He could have picked a fight. You go back to the prisoner
:09:54. > :09:59.voting issue, he voted against them. Yesterday he told them he agreed
:10:00. > :10:03.with them and he abstained. Does he come out of this enhanced or
:10:04. > :10:16.diminished? I think he is marginally menaced. -- diminished. We were
:10:17. > :10:22.never going to vote for him anyway. He does not care about me. Amongst
:10:23. > :10:27.his peers, he made an argument which they think had merits. He persuaded
:10:28. > :10:32.Downing Street it had merit. The Prime Minister did not come down
:10:33. > :10:36.like a tonne of bricks. Now, it's time for our daily quiz. The
:10:37. > :10:40.question for today is, Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper has told a
:10:41. > :10:43.magazine she has to shout at her husband, Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls,
:10:44. > :10:47.as they get their children ready for school in the morning. But what's
:10:48. > :10:50.the reason? Is it: a) Because he's reading the Treasury red book at the
:10:51. > :10:53.breakfast table, b) Because he's practising his hand-gestures for
:10:54. > :10:56.PMQs in the bathroom mirror, c) Because he's playing the piano, or
:10:57. > :11:02.d) Because he's watching the Sound of Music again? And crying, as he
:11:03. > :11:10.does, because that is what he told us. At the end of the show, Zoe and
:11:11. > :11:12.Tim will give us the correct answer. President Francois Hollande is in
:11:13. > :11:19.the UK working hard with David Cameron on the next phase of the
:11:20. > :11:23.intent called Gal. That is what a lot of us think. Where else would
:11:24. > :11:35.the Prime Minister take such a distinguished head of state than the
:11:36. > :11:39.traditional British boozer? He can look forward to pork scratchings and
:11:40. > :11:45.a pint of pale ale. What will be on the menu when the two men at their
:11:46. > :11:51.head to head? There will be plenty of cooperation plans. Such as
:11:52. > :11:57.dealing with defence, nuclear energy and the space industry. After that,
:11:58. > :12:01.things may get a little frosty. It is well known that Mr Cameron wants
:12:02. > :12:05.to renegotiate the European Union treaty to create a more flexible EU
:12:06. > :12:11.ahead of the promised referendum by the end of 2017. That is assuming he
:12:12. > :12:15.wins the election in 2015. Partly because of his own faith in a
:12:16. > :12:18.referendum in a Eurosceptic France, French officials have warned that
:12:19. > :12:28.President Francois Hollande will say no. His election is in 2017. He may
:12:29. > :12:33.have a thing or two to say about the Conservatives mocking his economic
:12:34. > :12:39.policies, especially when comparing them to those of Ed Miliband. Grant
:12:40. > :12:44.Schaap said President Francois Hollande has put his countrymen back
:12:45. > :12:48.into the dust. I did not know they came from the dust. In the last few
:12:49. > :12:53.minutes, the two leaders have been speaking to the media in a joint
:12:54. > :12:56.press conference in the beautiful Brize Norton in Oxfordshire. Our
:12:57. > :13:01.partnership is as close and important as ever. We are two
:13:02. > :13:06.leaders determined to keep our citizens safe and to secure a better
:13:07. > :13:09.future for them all. That has been the focus of our discussions today.
:13:10. > :13:16.First, on defence and security cooperation, we are both similar
:13:17. > :13:21.sized countries with similar Armed Forces and similar ambitions. We
:13:22. > :13:26.both see the link between domestic prosperity and being active players
:13:27. > :13:35.on the global stage. With us now as always on these occasions, the
:13:36. > :13:45.member of the French parliament representing Northern Europe,
:13:46. > :13:51.including the UK. Welcome back. Will President Francois Hollande where
:13:52. > :13:58.his helmet? I suppose so. In case Mr Cameron wants him with a baseball
:13:59. > :14:14.bat! How would you categorise Anglo French relations at the moment? Icy
:14:15. > :14:24.it as entente amicale. -- I see it. The reality shows that we do agree
:14:25. > :14:31.on many issues and important and strategic ones. It is close
:14:32. > :14:43.cooperation are probably closer than with any other country in Europe,
:14:44. > :14:49.except for the Germany. In life, you have discussions, splits and
:14:50. > :14:58.agreements. ER going to go into space today. Apparently so. -- we
:14:59. > :15:06.are going. Stay quiet, sit and watch the oceans together. Here is the big
:15:07. > :15:15.question... Am I right in thinking that the president has no real
:15:16. > :15:20.interest in a major renegotiation of these issues? I think you are right
:15:21. > :15:25.in thinking that. Not that he agrees on the fact that Europe needs to be
:15:26. > :15:31.reformed but he disagrees on the methods and the means that David
:15:32. > :15:35.Cameron wants to use for that. We have had enough of treaty
:15:36. > :15:40.negotiations. People want to see what Europe brings them. He wants to
:15:41. > :15:44.push an agenda on youth unemployment, on growth and how to
:15:45. > :15:48.create jobs, innovation in Europe. You do not need treaty changes for
:15:49. > :15:54.that. You do not need treaty changes to work closer with countries
:15:55. > :16:01.belonging to the Eurozone. We, in France, think that what David
:16:02. > :16:06.Cameron is asking us is actually down to his own domestic political
:16:07. > :16:09.agenda and that should not take any role at all in the discussions
:16:10. > :16:14.taking place between 28 member states.
:16:15. > :16:23.The last thing the president wants is a referendum on Europe. This is
:16:24. > :16:31.something which is never, ever discussed in French politics. You
:16:32. > :16:37.have had a referendum. The pro-Europeans have lost it. Exactly.
:16:38. > :16:43.At the moment, the economic situation is critical. We are
:16:44. > :16:49.focusing on trying to create jobs. It is not an issue. Believe me, it
:16:50. > :16:55.is not something we ever discussed in Parliament. I understand that. Mr
:16:56. > :16:59.Cameron has got problems with UKIP. The French mainstream parties have
:17:00. > :17:05.problems with the right of the National front, and they are
:17:06. > :17:14.anti-Europe. Do they want to pull out of Europe altogether? Just euro.
:17:15. > :17:25.You have got the hard left as well who are anti-euro. It is hard to see
:17:26. > :17:29.how Francois Hollande... I can't see anywhere the friends can give Mr
:17:30. > :17:35.Cameron even a fraction of what he is looking for. You are right. We
:17:36. > :17:42.don't really know what he is looking for, to be honest. He hasn't put any
:17:43. > :17:47.precise demands on the table. We know the direction he wants to go
:17:48. > :17:53.in. Probably something to do with financial services. He was to be
:17:54. > :17:57.part of the decision process when it comes to City regulations. It is
:17:58. > :18:04.already the case. I am not sure that a stronger euro zone integration
:18:05. > :18:09.will have any impact on the City. The National front, it is rising. We
:18:10. > :18:15.are worried, it is true. It is not so much on an anti-EU agenda. It is
:18:16. > :18:23.a lot about immigration and a lot on social issues. It is probably
:18:24. > :18:27.broader than what UKIP once. This will be covered by the diplomatic
:18:28. > :18:31.niceties. I am told that Francois Hollande doesn't want many questions
:18:32. > :18:40.so it would be a quick press conference. I wonder why! The mood
:18:41. > :18:47.music from the French, to be blunt, Mr Cameron... The whole strategy has
:18:48. > :18:55.almost collapsed before it has left the box. Arguably, he would say he
:18:56. > :18:59.needs to get Angela Merkel onside. She now has the social Democrats to
:19:00. > :19:06.deal with, who have the same view as the French president. That is right.
:19:07. > :19:11.We don't know what David Cameron once, precisely. People in his own
:19:12. > :19:15.party would like to know that. There is no way that Francois Hollande is
:19:16. > :19:21.good to have a referendum before his election. Here, Cameron is wanting
:19:22. > :19:25.to make the argument that Francois Hollande and Ed Miliband are the
:19:26. > :19:30.same disastrous socialist experiment. That is another issue.
:19:31. > :19:36.That is using France in British domestic politics. Where does Mr
:19:37. > :19:42.Cameron go from here? I am baffled by the use of the word strategy. He
:19:43. > :19:49.is wandering from one place to another. On paper, I don't think his
:19:50. > :19:54.renegotiation is to do with financial services. I accept that
:19:55. > :19:58.might be what it looks like. He probably would like to present
:19:59. > :20:01.himself as the person who curtails free movement between different
:20:02. > :20:07.countries, between Labour forces. That seems to be where he is coming
:20:08. > :20:13.from, if only we could make sure that people couldn't move around,
:20:14. > :20:17.the mobile poor is his big problem. I don't see what on earth he could
:20:18. > :20:20.do about that, whether he renegotiate the treaty or not. His
:20:21. > :20:30.main thing is to look like the person who is strong on that. Where
:20:31. > :20:33.do we go from here? The mobility of workers in Europe, the president has
:20:34. > :20:39.really pushed that issue in brush off because he wanted to renegotiate
:20:40. > :20:50.a directive to put more control into companies that do not apply laws and
:20:51. > :20:55.pay salaries of the country of origin, which is called social
:20:56. > :21:00.dumping. It is paying somebody from Poland at the Polish rate here in
:21:01. > :21:06.England. David Cameron opposed that. He didn't want it. He was one of the
:21:07. > :21:11.leaders in that confrontation are posing that. He didn't want any more
:21:12. > :21:18.control. I don't get it. It is paradoxical. As this year goes on in
:21:19. > :21:25.the grand Coalition takes control in Berlin, with major social Democratic
:21:26. > :21:30.influence, will is not become apparent that although there is a
:21:31. > :21:36.general will in Europe to reform - there always is - it will become
:21:37. > :21:43.clear there is no appetite among the leaders of the EU to give Mr Cameron
:21:44. > :21:48.any kind of repatriation. It is looking like that. The other
:21:49. > :21:54.problem, with the German government having changed, ministers here made
:21:55. > :21:58.a big effort to get to see the guys in Germany and now they are dealing
:21:59. > :22:01.with a whole different bunch of people with his priorities. They
:22:02. > :22:04.don't yet understand what the Coalition partners are about on what
:22:05. > :22:08.they are after. They are having to get to know these people ahead of
:22:09. > :22:12.European elections which are going to be disastrous for the Tory party
:22:13. > :22:16.and there will be more pressure on Cameron to do and say more about
:22:17. > :22:21.what he wants back after that. There are not the Allies out there. There
:22:22. > :22:25.are a few. The Germans will say to Britain, we will do what we can for
:22:26. > :22:28.you but don't ask us to choose between you and Europe and don't ask
:22:29. > :22:34.us to choose between you and the French, because you would like the
:22:35. > :22:41.answers. How is the former first lady doing? It is a difficult one to
:22:42. > :22:45.answer. You know that the split has been made official. Since then, the
:22:46. > :22:51.president has been very neutral. I think he wants to protect himself.
:22:52. > :22:58.He wants to protect his family. She has been to neutral. Is she going to
:22:59. > :23:04.turn nasty? We don't to that. Her nickname is the Rottweiler. The
:23:05. > :23:09.French are now keen on supporting her. She had an 89% disapproval
:23:10. > :23:17.rating and now it has changed! TNI on it for us. -- keep an eye on it.
:23:18. > :23:21.I know what you are thinking. What is happening with the EU bill?
:23:22. > :23:29.Haven't heard about it for at least a week. The private members bill,
:23:30. > :23:34.which is trying to put a referendum in 2017 into law, it is back in the
:23:35. > :23:45.law survey, now at committee stage. It is the -- only being supported by
:23:46. > :23:50.the Conservatives. Still paying attention? I hope so. This morning,
:23:51. > :23:57.Michael Dobbs, the author and peer, he is the Bill's sponsor, aerated
:23:58. > :24:07.the operation for holding it up. -- aerated. They take advice from
:24:08. > :24:10.Strasberg and Japan and yet they are failing to convince anybody they are
:24:11. > :24:15.keen to take the advice of the people. If we pursue these
:24:16. > :24:20.amendments, my Lords, we are doing only one thing. We're turning around
:24:21. > :24:27.to the people and saying that their voice, there will come in the
:24:28. > :24:33.instruction, isn't enough. -- there will, then struck.
:24:34. > :24:41.This is why we need a referendum, to cleanse the stables. We have been
:24:42. > :24:50.joined by the Conservative peer, patients Wheatcroft. Is he ever
:24:51. > :24:56.write? Is this bill a dead parrot? It is apparent that may be
:24:57. > :25:02.resurrected. Why? It is a bill that the public want to see made law.
:25:03. > :25:08.What has the public to do with it? The laws will do their best to get
:25:09. > :25:13.it through. There is a lot of opposition, not just from Labour but
:25:14. > :25:22.from our Lib Dem colleagues. It is not dead yet. Is it close to being
:25:23. > :25:28.dead? Is it in intensive care? Yes, but miracles happen. We are not
:25:29. > :25:32.writing off the bill. When was the last miracle? When the lid Dems do
:25:33. > :25:43.as well as they did in the election. -- the Lib Dems. Last Friday, there
:25:44. > :25:47.were lumber of amendments to the bill. Are the acceptable to your
:25:48. > :25:53.fellow Conservative peers? We don't think we need those amendments. The
:25:54. > :25:57.bill as it stands is quite straightforward. If anybody were to
:25:58. > :26:03.ask you, should the UK be a member of the EU? You would understand what
:26:04. > :26:09.the question meant. Is it not all a bit of a waste of about five Fridays
:26:10. > :26:12.in a row? Shouldn't you be out in your country estates enjoying
:26:13. > :26:17.yourselves? We know this is going nowhere. We know now that Francois
:26:18. > :26:25.Hollande is not going to agree to any major treaty change. He may not
:26:26. > :26:30.have a say in it. Probably will. He will be there until 2017. That is a
:26:31. > :26:35.position at the moment. Things change. Now, the French have fixed
:26:36. > :26:39.the terms for their president. He will be there. You'll agree his
:26:40. > :26:47.position looks difficult at the moment, I would suggest. -- his
:26:48. > :26:53.position looks difficult at the moment. It is true that the British
:26:54. > :26:56.people do want a vote in the EU. At the moment they say they would
:26:57. > :27:01.leave. If it would be the same after debate, that is another matter. This
:27:02. > :27:05.parliament can't bind the next parliament. Even if they got the
:27:06. > :27:09.next bill, it doesn't mean there will be a referendum. Are the wheels
:27:10. > :27:13.coming off the whole Camerin strategy on your rug? This is the
:27:14. > :27:22.less do something to get to summer ploy. -- let's do something. By
:27:23. > :27:27.throwing his weight behind it and saying this is a good thing, it
:27:28. > :27:30.means he doesn't have to come up with anything concrete about what he
:27:31. > :27:42.would like to negotiate. He is not going to get away with that after 22
:27:43. > :27:47.May. What about Labour? Will Ed Miliband maintain his anti-reverend
:27:48. > :27:50.opposition? It is maddening. The amount of time we have spent talking
:27:51. > :27:54.about it, we could have held the referendum and put it on YouTube.
:27:55. > :28:01.The only intelligent thing about this is that... The only intelligent
:28:02. > :28:04.thing about suggesting a referendum is that anybody who says no is
:28:05. > :28:10.somebody who doesn't want to know what people think. That is not a
:28:11. > :28:17.good look for anybody. Will Labour maintain its anti-referendum
:28:18. > :28:21.position? I think they will maintain. If your question is,
:28:22. > :28:25.should they? I wonder whether the smart money would be on having
:28:26. > :28:33.courage and saying, we believe fervently in the EU but we are
:28:34. > :28:36.prepared to make our case. Their courageous behaviour was to waive
:28:37. > :28:42.the bill through in the Commons. Neither the Labour Party nor the Lib
:28:43. > :28:45.Dems were able to oppose the bill there. They encouraged their members
:28:46. > :28:51.in the Lords to struck it at every turn. That is not a very courageous
:28:52. > :28:54.approach. Thing is, this is bicameral politics. You get perverse
:28:55. > :28:58.result that nobody wanted because the only way people can
:28:59. > :29:03.realistically postings is through the kind of back doors. The Lib Dems
:29:04. > :29:10.are tabling amendments. They don't want to divide the whip but they
:29:11. > :29:13.want to look at -- like they have made an amendment. The government is
:29:14. > :29:16.pretty much of the view that what is happening in the Lords is not going
:29:17. > :29:23.on against the wishes of Ed Miliband. The camera position is
:29:24. > :29:27.that he hopes, contrary to what we have been saying, that he will get a
:29:28. > :29:33.major repatriation of powers and that he will campaign to keep in
:29:34. > :29:39.Europe on this new basis, which he has renegotiated. Does it not follow
:29:40. > :29:43.that if he fails to get the repatriation come he still has to
:29:44. > :29:47.have the referendum and he has a campaign against staying in the EU?
:29:48. > :29:52.He has left that position open. Most people think he wants to stay in. He
:29:53. > :29:57.has painted itself into a position where he may have to campaign for
:29:58. > :30:01.out. I agree with Zoe about Ed Miliband. It is a test about whether
:30:02. > :30:05.he things you can win the next election. At the moment he thinks he
:30:06. > :30:12.is doing to be the next Prime Minister. The strongest line you
:30:13. > :30:21.will have if this bill falls is that you will campaign, I presume, saying
:30:22. > :30:28.Labour won't give you a referendum. Absolutely and we know the public
:30:29. > :30:34.want a referendum. If the choice was between staying in, largely on the
:30:35. > :30:44.existing status quo terms, or coming out... That won't be the question.
:30:45. > :30:48.But it could be the choice. It won't be because David Cameron will
:30:49. > :30:53.negotiate. What happens if he doesn't get much? I would be in
:30:54. > :30:57.favour of staying in but in a more effective EU. We have already seen
:30:58. > :30:59.they would Cameron get the first cut in the budget. There is scope for
:31:00. > :31:11.change here. Last week, the comedian Rufus Hound
:31:12. > :31:14.caused a bit of a stir when he announced his intention to stand as
:31:15. > :31:17.a candidate in the European elections this May, for the National
:31:18. > :31:20.Health Action Party. Mr Hound accused the Conservative Party of
:31:21. > :31:23.wanting to sell off the health service to party donors. The NHAP
:31:24. > :31:29.campaigns against what it says is the privatisation by stealth of the
:31:30. > :31:33.NHS. The Government is upfront about wanting more private companies to be
:31:34. > :31:35.involved in the NHS but says its reforms are designed to give health
:31:36. > :31:40.professionals more control over budgets and improve services. Here's
:31:41. > :31:49.how David Cameron described the reforms back in June 2011. The
:31:50. > :31:54.fundamentals of our plans, more control to patients, more power to
:31:55. > :31:58.doctors and nurses, less bureaucracy in the NHS, those fundamentals are
:31:59. > :32:03.as strong today as they have ever been. He wanted us to make clear
:32:04. > :32:10.that competition is not therefore its own sake but to make life better
:32:11. > :32:16.for patients. Done! You wanted us to get specialists and nurses, not just
:32:17. > :32:20.GPs to commissioning groups, done! You wanted us to join up the
:32:21. > :32:25.different parts of the NHS, to put integration right at the heart of
:32:26. > :32:29.reforms. Again, done! And we've been joined by Dr Louise Irvine, who is
:32:30. > :32:32.standing in the euro elections in May for the National Health Action
:32:33. > :32:37.Party. Welcome to the Daily Politics. Your campaign group says
:32:38. > :32:45.that the Government is threatening free at the point of use health
:32:46. > :32:49.care. Where? At the moment, we are hearing stories of services that
:32:50. > :32:56.were once available on the NHS being rationed. Today there was an item in
:32:57. > :33:04.the news about that. The health service is always rationed. That is
:33:05. > :33:10.why there are queues. What was previously free and where are they
:33:11. > :33:16.having to pay for them? People cannot get cataract operations. They
:33:17. > :33:20.get one I'd done because that is what they need to see with. Many
:33:21. > :33:25.health groups say people have to wait until they are extremely
:33:26. > :33:31.disabled before they can get a hit or knee replacement. You are saying
:33:32. > :33:35.we are having to pay. Give me an example of where patients are
:33:36. > :33:42.painful care which they have revisited got free. We are
:33:43. > :33:48.predicting the construction of a publicly funded health care service
:33:49. > :33:51.will lead to people having to pay. People are taking our health
:33:52. > :33:55.insurance to cover the possibility they will not be able to get the
:33:56. > :34:02.kind of care they need. This is happening already. The health
:34:03. > :34:07.insurance sector is desperate to get more customers. The way to do that
:34:08. > :34:15.is to start to shrink down what the NHS provides. That is what we are
:34:16. > :34:19.seeing. Private companies are providing health care and procedures
:34:20. > :34:23.free at point of use. The private sector has always been involved in
:34:24. > :34:30.the NHS. The private sector has always been used in a small way in
:34:31. > :34:33.the NHS. Now it has a growing role. The private sector wants to cherry
:34:34. > :34:39.pick the most profitable services and remove them but that will mean
:34:40. > :34:44.they will be removed from NHS hospitals, which would destabilise
:34:45. > :34:51.the financials of NHS hospitals. Also the cost of turning the NHS
:34:52. > :34:56.into a market means at least ?10 billion, ?15 billion a year in
:34:57. > :35:01.transaction costs. The costs of lawyers and accountants managing
:35:02. > :35:06.that market. One study has been done by the Kings fund and it is quite
:35:07. > :35:11.useful. It talks about providing services free at the of use. It says
:35:12. > :35:18.they were no worse than the NHS and, in some cases, superior. We are
:35:19. > :35:24.going to go from a publicly provided system to one which is fragmented.
:35:25. > :35:27.Greater competition will undermine the collaboration and cooperation.
:35:28. > :35:31.David Cameron said it is important to provide good health care. The
:35:32. > :35:40.gains we have made in health care in the last ten years, in cancer care,
:35:41. > :35:49.stroke care and heart care, have all increased no end. The independent
:35:50. > :35:56.sector treatment programme was established. What was wrong with it?
:35:57. > :36:01.Labour, I think, has lost its way. It has some very good policies but
:36:02. > :36:06.it also brought in to much of the private sector. Independent
:36:07. > :36:16.treatment centres where paid more per case. You are a GP, aren't you?
:36:17. > :36:24.We are not a company. We are not driven by shareholders. You are not
:36:25. > :36:28.employed by the NHS. This is a historical situation brought about
:36:29. > :36:34.at the beginning. We are part of the NHS. Why can't we have services
:36:35. > :36:38.provided on the same basis as you? GPs do not disappear when they can
:36:39. > :36:45.no longer make a profit, unlike virgin and care UK or United health.
:36:46. > :36:49.We are there for the long haul. Our patients can well see the difference
:36:50. > :36:54.between a local GP and the big, private, profit driven corporations
:36:55. > :37:00.which are circling the NHS to make profit at the People's illness.
:37:01. > :37:04.There is a huge difference. It is interesting you're going to stand in
:37:05. > :37:09.the European elections. Will it be quite tough, given that your
:37:10. > :37:13.personal to do with the health service? They will all be arguing
:37:14. > :37:19.about repatriation of powers and the euro and UKIP at all the rest of it.
:37:20. > :37:24.How will you get the health service onto the agenda? There is one really
:37:25. > :37:30.important aspect of Europe which people need to be aware of. That is
:37:31. > :37:34.the EU-US trade agreement, which is currently being discussed. If the
:37:35. > :37:38.NHS does not get an exemption from that agreement, it would make all
:37:39. > :37:42.privatisation irreversible because it would be possible for foreign
:37:43. > :37:45.corporations to sue the British Government no matter what decisions
:37:46. > :37:52.they made, even with the democratic mandate. Also Europe does legislate
:37:53. > :37:58.on many other health issues to do with health and public health. I'm
:37:59. > :38:02.struck by the fact we're talking about structures within the NHS
:38:03. > :38:06.rather than front-line patient care. The Government made a big mistake by
:38:07. > :38:16.dimming its top reorganisation in terms of the public. -- doing its
:38:17. > :38:19.top-down reorganisation. Jeremy Hunt has desperately tried to make it
:38:20. > :38:25.about patients again. I am intrigued that someone is coming along and
:38:26. > :38:29.talking about structures again. Can I raise the issue about private
:38:30. > :38:34.companies. Companies are given 1.5 million in donations to the
:38:35. > :38:44.Conservative Party. They have 70% of contracts. Have you got that figure?
:38:45. > :38:49.Have you got the background... ? Lots of things are said by MPs that
:38:50. > :39:00.are not true in Hansard. Have you got the detail of the 1.5 million
:39:01. > :39:04.days I have been trying to get it? I think it was the European register
:39:05. > :39:10.of contracts which were given out. They surveyed it all and added it
:39:11. > :39:18.all up. That sounds true to me. Sounded true and being true are not
:39:19. > :39:22.the same. I want to get the fact. Andy Burnham has made the point to
:39:23. > :39:25.me and I want to get the facts to put the Secretary of State for
:39:26. > :39:34.health when I interview him. That is why I am looking at it. Can I ask
:39:35. > :39:38.you one final question? Your candidate in the European elections
:39:39. > :39:46.said, David Cameron wants your kids to die, do you regret that? I do
:39:47. > :39:52.not. I think David Cameron, as a man, does not want children to die.
:39:53. > :39:56.As a Prime Minister in his political role he is presiding over a system
:39:57. > :40:02.which will lead to deaths. The faculty in public health has said
:40:03. > :40:10.that. He said, David Cameron once your kids to die. Wanting your kids
:40:11. > :40:15.to die, was not a regretful thing to say? Is someone is driving a car
:40:16. > :40:19.recklessly you say, do want to kill someone in this car? He is being
:40:20. > :40:26.reckless. You think the Prime Minister is a killer. I do not think
:40:27. > :40:30.he is a killer. It is a rhetorical statement. It is not about
:40:31. > :40:36.structures, it is about patients. The money that has been taken out
:40:37. > :40:43.into funding this big market has been taken from front-line care. We
:40:44. > :40:47.have lost 6000 nurses, 8000 beds, A departments have been closed,
:40:48. > :40:52.ambulance stations have been closed. It is affecting people 's health.
:40:53. > :40:55.And we did ask for an interview with a health minister but none were
:40:56. > :40:58.available. Over the past few months, we've been taking a look at some of
:40:59. > :41:01.the political thinkers who have influenced British politics. We've
:41:02. > :41:05.discussed Karl Marx, Tom Paine, John Stewart Mill and several others.
:41:06. > :41:08.Today it's the turn of an Austrian economist born in 1899, the choice
:41:09. > :41:29.of financial journalist Louise Cooper.
:41:30. > :41:35.You know, I think it is fair to say that these days, most others have
:41:36. > :41:40.enough trouble managing our own bank accounts let alone an economy. For
:41:41. > :41:44.the people in this building, the Treasury, and those outside who are
:41:45. > :41:48.economists, that is their job. I will meet a financial analyst and
:41:49. > :41:57.blogger who you cannot use that job unless you have studied the work of
:41:58. > :42:05.Frederick Hayek. Louise, nice to meet you. Nice to meet you as well.
:42:06. > :42:11.We are in the Institute of economic affairs. We are sat at his kitchen
:42:12. > :42:21.table, having a cup of tea. It is exciting to be here. I imagine he
:42:22. > :42:29.would not have drank tea. Why do you like him so much? He was an Austrian
:42:30. > :42:37.immigrant and his family suffered deprivation between the wars. He
:42:38. > :42:44.took on Keynes full stop wealth, privilege, education, establishment,
:42:45. > :42:49.Cambridge. This Austrian upstart took on Keynes. For that, he was
:42:50. > :42:53.incredibly brave. When it became apparent the world fell in love with
:42:54. > :42:59.Keynes, he stuck to what he really, really believed in. It was an
:43:00. > :43:05.unpopular message but he kept saying it. For that, you have to admire
:43:06. > :43:13.him. ) he starts his lecturing career and he is of a British
:43:14. > :43:22.economic journey. -- he starts his lecturing career. So, we're in the
:43:23. > :43:27.London School of economic old theatre where Frederich Hayek used
:43:28. > :43:32.to lecture. It is astonishing they gave him a job. His earlier attempts
:43:33. > :43:38.were turgid. Incomprehensible is also a good word. He had a strong
:43:39. > :43:44.Austrian accent, he spoke in long sentences with lots of subclauses
:43:45. > :43:51.and through triangular diagrams that few in the audience understood. I am
:43:52. > :43:57.honoured to stand on this stage but his entry here was not great. Can
:43:58. > :44:03.you explain what he is trying to tell us? He believed firmly in free
:44:04. > :44:08.markets. He thought that economies were highly complex and therefore
:44:09. > :44:13.government interference would always end up badly. In fact, when they did
:44:14. > :44:20.interfere, and the outcome was worse than if they had done nothing at
:44:21. > :44:25.all. Does he have anything at all to do with monetarism? Yellow matter
:44:26. > :44:36.you can affect an economy by changing interest rates. The initial
:44:37. > :44:38.work was done by Frederich Hayek. It was not for another 50 years that
:44:39. > :44:50.someone really adopted him. We have come to what is now Europe
:44:51. > :44:54.house in the heart of Westminster. Back in the days of Margaret
:44:55. > :45:02.Thatcher, this was Conservative Central office. She is crucial to
:45:03. > :45:06.Hayek's story. Absolutely. Hayek was ignored the decade. Everybody went
:45:07. > :45:12.mad for Keynes. Then we had the economic crisis of the 1970s. Keynes
:45:13. > :45:16.was maybe not such a great solution to the world's problems. What
:45:17. > :45:23.Thatcher did was go back to Hayek, and in particular this book.
:45:24. > :45:26.Apparently she came into this building, slammed it down on the
:45:27. > :45:32.table in a very Thatcher way and said, this is what we believe!
:45:33. > :45:37.Fabulous. It is all about rolling back the state, privatising
:45:38. > :45:40.state-run businesses and introducing competition as much as possible.
:45:41. > :45:47.Even Bill Clinton, a Democrat, famously said, this is the end of
:45:48. > :45:55.big government. You don't get much more Hayek than that. So everybody
:45:56. > :46:00.starts to study him. The real question is, is he relevant to
:46:01. > :46:06.today? Doctor Elizabeth Fraser thinks that to answer that you need
:46:07. > :46:10.to look at Hayek's view of politics versus economics. For Hayek,
:46:11. > :46:16.politics is bad. Whether the we think of it as politicians doing
:46:17. > :46:22.their best or as them being snakes, the him, both ways, politics is
:46:23. > :46:26.bound up with coercion and it has always got that element of violence
:46:27. > :46:34.in it. For Hayek, economics is the realm of freedom. Hayek died in
:46:35. > :46:38.1992, never seeing the financial spectacular knock-down of 2008.
:46:39. > :46:44.Having written the book on one economic theory, does he have
:46:45. > :46:47.something to offer today? I have brought us back to the Treasury,
:46:48. > :46:53.because it seems relevant to me that they are trained to lay up the mess
:46:54. > :46:57.if they can. Does Hayek have anything to teach them? Without a
:46:58. > :47:00.shadow of doubt. If you took Hayek to an extreme, most of the
:47:01. > :47:06.government buildings behind us would be ripped down. I am not suggesting
:47:07. > :47:08.that. None of them, none of the big economists, have all the answers.
:47:09. > :47:17.They all have something well done to save. -- to say full stop what's
:47:18. > :47:21.interesting in this case, in Britain we have chosen to cut spending and
:47:22. > :47:28.impose austerity. That is wrote much of principle after Hayek. -- very
:47:29. > :47:36.much. Many of his quotes 80 years ago, such as, if you want to avoid
:47:37. > :47:40.the excesses of the business cycle, banks should keep a close check on
:47:41. > :47:47.their lending. Oh, if only they had here in the UK! We would have saved
:47:48. > :47:49.?80 billion of taxpayers' money. That is the reason you should all
:47:50. > :48:05.vote for Hayek. That has told you! And Louise joins us now. I didn't
:48:06. > :48:12.know he was standing for election. Is he in the European elections?
:48:13. > :48:17.Doubt it. He's dead. I know. Am I right in thinking he was influenced
:48:18. > :48:23.very much by the experience of Nazi Germany and the rise of Stalinist
:48:24. > :48:28.Russia? Yes. He was, as all great men are, flawed. One of the things
:48:29. > :48:32.he predicted was that the prediction of a more welfare state would create
:48:33. > :48:37.dictatorships in Europe. That hasn't happened. His initial coming up
:48:38. > :48:44.against Keynes was quite personal and vitriolic. The liberally sought
:48:45. > :48:47.the job in the University of Arkansas to get the cheap divorce
:48:48. > :48:53.from his first wife. He got things wrong. He must really wanted a
:48:54. > :49:02.divorce if he was prepared to go to Arkansas. What is sad about that is
:49:03. > :49:06.that the man who brought into the NFC didn't talk to him for 20 years
:49:07. > :49:12.because he basically left his first wife and child for a cheap divorce.
:49:13. > :49:17.He was deeply flawed but also to be brave in his view. He was ridiculed,
:49:18. > :49:23.held in contempt, the decades. Everybody went crazy for Keynes and
:49:24. > :49:36.hit back at Hayek. 1979 as seen as the end of the post-war Keynes
:49:37. > :49:51.consensus. Since the crash, it has been tougher for the Hayek
:49:52. > :49:55.followers. Some would say the reason the crash happened was because we
:49:56. > :50:01.didn't go enough Hayekian. There were still some control over
:50:02. > :50:11.interest rates. Extreme Hayekians would say you shouldn't have a Bank
:50:12. > :50:29.of England or federal reserve. Isn't that like iron Rand? -- Ayn Rand? He
:50:30. > :50:36.is not as extreme as some of his supporters. He did believe there is
:50:37. > :50:39.some sort of level. It is the line, it is difficult. Where do you draw
:50:40. > :50:45.the line between complete anarchy of free markets and where do you
:50:46. > :50:50.believe in state planning? It is where you draw the line on that
:50:51. > :50:56.spectrum, whether you are Keynes or Hayek. Nobody quite knows the
:50:57. > :51:00.answer. If you look at the size of government, it has got artificially
:51:01. > :51:09.high after the crash, a cyclical thing. Roughly, it is smaller
:51:10. > :51:14.government at around 40%. France is the exception. It is 57%. Would he
:51:15. > :51:19.have been happy with a government that was about two fifths of the
:51:20. > :51:24.overall economy? I can't believe he would have been. But he did have
:51:25. > :51:27.this concept that he believed that too much government involvement
:51:28. > :51:31.would lead to dictatorships. That hasn't happened in Europe. He was
:51:32. > :51:34.wrong on that. I don't think he believes the level now is right.
:51:35. > :51:40.Some of his thinking was actually flawed. You have got to love a man
:51:41. > :51:45.who comes up with a reason why you shouldn't buy way should be wary of
:51:46. > :51:50.buying a second-hand car from a car salesman. He came up with that
:51:51. > :51:54.original idea. I think we knew that already. He called it... Go on. The
:51:55. > :52:01.economic term is asymmetry of information. Hayek was a
:52:02. > :52:05.micro-economist. He looks at the individual decisions people make.
:52:06. > :52:12.That is what he was into. That is where he got the sense of where the
:52:13. > :52:15.economy was going. He said, when you buy a car, the seller has more
:52:16. > :52:19.information than you do and that is why you should be wary. Asymmetry of
:52:20. > :52:33.information. Before that, everybody thought it was fine. I've dabbled. I
:52:34. > :52:41.think most people have Milly Dowler in his books. We micro most
:52:42. > :52:49.Hayekians are on the side that -- I think most people have dabbled in
:52:50. > :52:54.his books. I think most Hayekians are on that side. He gets a lot of
:52:55. > :53:01.that logic from people who are in favour of propping up the banking
:53:02. > :53:04.system, which is really weird. It is easy to write an academic book
:53:05. > :53:19.saying, you shouldn't save the banks. It could have been anarchy
:53:20. > :53:25.not to. That is politics. The interesting thing is, this guy is
:53:26. > :53:37.still a rock star in the Tory party. Among the new intake... Do you think
:53:38. > :53:44.Mr Cameron has read Hayek? I think it is unlikely. Too busy playing
:53:45. > :53:53.Angry... Birds, with the NSA looking in. Here is that we give 62
:53:54. > :53:58.seconds. If some parts of the country have
:53:59. > :54:05.been under will the weather, other parts have been underwater. The Lib
:54:06. > :54:09.Dems try to exit the eye of the Lord Rennard storm by choosing a new
:54:10. > :54:15.deputy leader. Not one of their seven Baroness is sore the light of
:54:16. > :54:20.day. -- Baroness is. Ed Balls permit Labour would bring back the 50p tax
:54:21. > :54:25.rate. David Cameron said his government were the real Robin
:54:26. > :54:33.Hoods. I want the richest to play more tax. -- pay more tax. Mark
:54:34. > :54:39.Carney tossed his cave into the Scottish independence debate. A
:54:40. > :54:46.durable currency union requires some seeding of national sovereignty. The
:54:47. > :54:49.Immigration Bill was back on the borders. Conservative rebels pushed
:54:50. > :54:52.or even tighter laws to deport foreign criminals. But their
:54:53. > :55:02.amendment was sent back where it came from.
:55:03. > :55:12.Danny Alexander is doing the rounds, saying, oh, Labour, they
:55:13. > :55:23.would borrow much more. That is true. But we don't know by how much
:55:24. > :55:28.they will spend on capital spending. It has just been made up. The
:55:29. > :55:32.interesting thing is the weight Danny Alexander has gone about
:55:33. > :55:36.trying to put a figure on it is by protecting government spending for
:55:37. > :55:40.two more years. The Lib Dems are not signed up to do that, by the way. It
:55:41. > :55:45.is interesting that Danny Alexander is making this case. One part of the
:55:46. > :55:53.Lib Dems want to go with Labour on the economy, and the other doesn't
:55:54. > :55:58.want to do that all -- at all. He has also said he would bring down
:55:59. > :56:03.the national debt. If he is going to balance the current budget, but
:56:04. > :56:07.spend a deficit on the capital, in the national debt will continue to
:56:08. > :56:15.rise. It will continue to rise as it has for the whole of this
:56:16. > :56:18.government. The projections are 0.7%. Nobody can say they were
:56:19. > :56:22.earth-shattering. I am disappointed by how much they are not
:56:23. > :56:25.earth-shattering. Danny Alexander reminds me of somebody who is
:56:26. > :56:28.playing world of war craft and he has found some tiny technical thing
:56:29. > :56:37.and he is really excited about it and he has lost the crowd. It is
:56:38. > :56:43.certainly the Tory narrative that the recovery is underway, growth is
:56:44. > :56:50.back. If you had it back to Labour, they will just spend, spend, spend
:56:51. > :56:56.again. What does the public take away from this? Ed Balls has tried
:56:57. > :57:01.to do two things, to say, I'm going to be responsible on spending and I
:57:02. > :57:04.am going to put the 50p rate back. The public body takes away from this
:57:05. > :57:10.sum doubts over whether Labour will be responsible, which means job done
:57:11. > :57:14.for the Tories and Lib Dems. The interesting thing is the flagship
:57:15. > :57:17.measures they take on whether it is the 50p rate or bedroom tax, those
:57:18. > :57:22.are the smallest amount of money you can conceive of government. 100
:57:23. > :57:26.million quid on one side. They are irrelevant to deficit reduction.
:57:27. > :57:32.They sell themselves on these policies which make no difference to
:57:33. > :57:39.the comic reality of the country. The reason polls are shown as
:57:40. > :57:43.narrowing... Do the Tories expect, not hope, do they expect the polls
:57:44. > :57:54.to narrow as the recovery gathers pace? I think they do. People are
:57:55. > :57:58.realising that the cost of living thing is working for them. It will
:57:59. > :58:08.only work if they all stay skint in the country. A member of Yougov says
:58:09. > :58:17.there is a new incumbency factor for MPs. OK, we shall see.
:58:18. > :58:20.There's just time before we go to find out the answer to our quiz. The
:58:21. > :58:24.question was: Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper has told a magazine
:58:25. > :58:27.she has to shout at her husband, Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls, as they
:58:28. > :58:30.get their children ready for school in the morning. But what's the
:58:31. > :58:37.reason? I think it is playing the piano. It is playing the piano.
:58:38. > :58:43.Interestingly, Yvette is better than Ed on the piano. You heard it here
:58:44. > :58:46.first. That's all for today. Thanks to Tim
:58:47. > :58:50.Shipman, Zoe Williams and all my guests today. I'll be back on BBC
:58:51. > :58:52.One on Sunday from 11 with the Sunday Politics. Do join me then.
:58:53. > :58:54.Bye bye.