:00:40. > :00:44.Good afternoon, welcome to the Daily Politics. Labour has given us their
:00:45. > :00:49.first firm manifesto spending pledge, an expensive one. The high
:00:50. > :00:53.command says it will spend ?5 billion to give unemployed young
:00:54. > :00:56.people a guaranteed job, and the promises good for the whole of the
:00:57. > :01:01.next parliament if they win the election. Do the numbers add up?
:01:02. > :01:05.They use hi-tech detector vans to check if you are paying your TV
:01:06. > :01:09.licence, so you can watch Daily Politics! Some MPs think it is
:01:10. > :01:13.nothing more than a poll tax on viewers, we will debate the issue.
:01:14. > :01:17.They are sometimes known as the ministers for paperclips, they get
:01:18. > :01:22.little power or glory, who would want to be a junior minister? And is
:01:23. > :01:26.Labour announced their first election manifesto commitment, we
:01:27. > :01:33.look back as whether they are really worth the paper they are written on.
:01:34. > :01:39.All that in the next hour, and with us for the whole programme today is
:01:40. > :01:43.Liberal Democrat MP and friend of the programme Jeremy Browne, and he
:01:44. > :01:47.joins us fresh, if that is the word, from the Lib Dems bring conference
:01:48. > :01:51.in York, where he spent the weekend talking about policy, cheering on
:01:52. > :01:56.the speeches and fielding questions about the inspiration for his beard.
:01:57. > :02:00.Welcome to the show. Sticking with the conference, the Lib Dems were
:02:01. > :02:07.keen to talk about their record in government, but they were also
:02:08. > :02:10.indulging in a new favourite pastime, having a go at UKIP. Let's
:02:11. > :02:17.have a look at the surprise guest who took to the stage yesterday.
:02:18. > :02:22.Hello, everybody! Nigel here. I am looking for my mate Nick to see if
:02:23. > :02:26.we can have a few pints and a few smokes before our little chat on the
:02:27. > :02:36.2nd of April. Have you seen him anywhere? No? Oh, all right, OK.
:02:37. > :02:41.Well, I thought, you know, I'd perhaps have a chance to convince
:02:42. > :02:45.him over this Europe stuff... That was in fact morally bird, the Lib
:02:46. > :02:53.Dem MP, pretending to be Nigel Farage. -- Lorely Burt. I am not
:02:54. > :02:58.sure that she was on the right sort of ground, I'd like Nigel Farage as
:02:59. > :03:04.well as an individual. Was that wise as a gimmick? I think the contrast
:03:05. > :03:09.between Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems' position and UKIP is wise,
:03:10. > :03:12.because that is the big choice facing the country, not just in the
:03:13. > :03:18.European elections but for our country for decades to come. As we
:03:19. > :03:21.have globalisation and Moore internationalised world, there are
:03:22. > :03:27.implications terms of immigration, how we get on with all parts of the
:03:28. > :03:31.world, Asia in particular. The big choice facing us is whether we try
:03:32. > :03:34.to embrace that, do we reject and try to make sure Britain plays an
:03:35. > :03:39.active role in the world, or do we try to withdraw from it and
:03:40. > :03:44.consolidate what we already have? In a way, I think the black and white
:03:45. > :03:48.choice facing the country is between the Nick Clegg vision and be Nigel
:03:49. > :03:52.Farage vision. Actually, it would be blurred by having Ed Miliband and
:03:53. > :03:57.David Cameron there, because they do not represent anything clear. You
:03:58. > :04:02.may disagree or agree with what they both say, but I think that, for the
:04:03. > :04:11.electorate, is the real choice. Do the Lib Dems do, deep well? I'm not
:04:12. > :04:16.sure any politicians do it well! -- comedy. You have to see them in the
:04:17. > :04:20.context of being in front of a partisan audience. I think people
:04:21. > :04:26.quite enjoy it, good on her for having the nerve to go. She drew the
:04:27. > :04:31.short straw, didn't she? I don't know, maybe she enjoyed it! All
:04:32. > :04:33.political parties, you can get a bit of fun from the activists by
:04:34. > :04:39.lampooning your political opponents, and no doubt at UKIP they
:04:40. > :04:45.will have a similar role for Nick Clegg. What about the policy of
:04:46. > :04:49.raising the income tax threshold? Is that your policy, or was it a joint
:04:50. > :04:54.policy with the Conservative Party? It is a Liberal Democrat policy that
:04:55. > :04:57.is being implemented jointly in government. We are pleased that we
:04:58. > :05:01.have played such a constructive role in government, that we have been
:05:02. > :05:06.able to implement important policies. But let's be clear, it was
:05:07. > :05:10.in the Liberal Democrat manifesto and not in the Conservative
:05:11. > :05:14.manifesto, so you cannot have a more straightforward case of ownership of
:05:15. > :05:19.a policy than that. No dispute that it is a Liberal Democrat policy, but
:05:20. > :05:22.of course we worked collaboratively with the Conservatives in
:05:23. > :05:26.government. I think they have to be convinced, because David Cameron
:05:27. > :05:29.said that it was an unaffordable policy, and he would have liked to
:05:30. > :05:33.be able to implement it but it would not be possible in government. I am
:05:34. > :05:37.not saying they were against tax cuts for people on low and middle
:05:38. > :05:40.incomes, but they wouldn't have done it on their own, and we know that
:05:41. > :05:44.the cause David Cameron told us in the leadership debates that the
:05:45. > :05:48.Conservatives would not do that if they were in government on their
:05:49. > :05:51.own. It turns out it is affordable, and next month the policy will be
:05:52. > :05:56.achieved in full. That is due to the pressure being put in government by
:05:57. > :06:02.the Liberal Democrats to get that policy implemented, but let's be
:06:03. > :06:05.grown up about the - there are two parties in government, we worked
:06:06. > :06:08.collaboratively, and a lot of the successes of this government are due
:06:09. > :06:12.to Liberal Democrat inspired policies, but we have put them in
:06:13. > :06:16.effect together. So it was not grown-up to say we had to drag the
:06:17. > :06:21.Conservative Party kicking and screaming into it? That is what Nick
:06:22. > :06:24.Clegg said. I was not in those negotiations, but clearly the
:06:25. > :06:28.Conservatives would not have done that without us, so they have to
:06:29. > :06:35.have their feet held to the fire a little bit by us to say the priority
:06:36. > :06:38.should not be on inheritance tax, we want the number-one priority to be
:06:39. > :06:42.helping people on lower and middle incomes by making them pay less
:06:43. > :06:49.tax, and that has become the main tax priority of government, but it
:06:50. > :06:52.was a Lib Dem policy. How would you have characterised James
:06:53. > :06:55.Brokenshire's speech on immigration in terms of blaming the middle
:06:56. > :07:01.classes for immigration? Well, it is not a speech I would have made. You
:07:02. > :07:09.were in the home office. I was, and I didn't make that speech! I do my
:07:10. > :07:16.own cleaning in the house, and I'm afraid I don't earn enough money to
:07:17. > :07:19.take on staff. I am not part of the metropolitan elite! How misguided,
:07:20. > :07:26.in your mind, was that speech, or was he right? I mean, I think it was
:07:27. > :07:31.a misguided speech, but the one area where he maybe was touching on a
:07:32. > :07:34.point which is worth debating is that the impact of immigration can
:07:35. > :07:39.be quite different on people in different parts of the economy. So
:07:40. > :07:44.on the whole, it is more beneficial to affluent people, and it is less
:07:45. > :07:49.beneficial to people with lower skills. But the overall message that
:07:50. > :07:53.James was conveying was a bad message, because I think the joys
:07:54. > :07:57.that we have as a country is not how do we lock out people and how do we
:07:58. > :08:01.cut ourselves off from globalisation - it is how we can raise the skills
:08:02. > :08:06.and opportunities that exist in this country to make sure that we can
:08:07. > :08:09.compete in an era of globalisation, and for me the Conservatives and
:08:10. > :08:12.UKIP are going down the wrong part if they think we can cut ourselves
:08:13. > :08:17.off. You can never have too much of the
:08:18. > :08:21.Lib Dems bring conference, and it is time for the daily quiz. -- spring
:08:22. > :08:24.conference. Yesterday Nick Clegg gave us a list of all the things he
:08:25. > :08:30.loves about Britain, but which one of these was not on his list? The
:08:31. > :08:36.shipping forecast, the steam engine, the Antiques Roadshow, chewing while
:08:37. > :08:42.abroad? At the end of the show, I'm sure Jeremy can give us the correct
:08:43. > :08:45.answer. -- queueing. Nigel Evans, the former Deputy Speaker of the
:08:46. > :08:49.House of Commons, goes on trial today accused of sexual offences
:08:50. > :08:53.against seven men. The MP for Ribble Valley in Lincolnshire paces a jury
:08:54. > :08:57.at Preston Crown Court for a trial scheduled to last around four weeks.
:08:58. > :09:03.We can find out more from Ed Thomas, who was outside the court, can you
:09:04. > :09:08.give us any more background? Well, Nigel Evans arrived here this
:09:09. > :09:11.morning surrounded by photographers and reporters, and in courtroom one
:09:12. > :09:17.at Preston County Court he faces nine charges in total, eight counts
:09:18. > :09:22.of sexual and indecent assault, and one count of rape. Now, all these
:09:23. > :09:28.charges are said to have happened between 2002 and last year and
:09:29. > :09:32.involves seven men. Nigel Evans, throughout the whole court process,
:09:33. > :09:34.has insisted that he is innocent, he pleads not guilty to all of the
:09:35. > :09:47.charges. Oh! Ed, can you hear? Babbs we have
:09:48. > :09:53.lost contact. What will actually happen today? Well, the first bit of
:09:54. > :09:57.court business today was to swear in a jury, and potential jurors were
:09:58. > :10:02.asked a number of questions, whether they were a constituent or not of
:10:03. > :10:08.Nigel Evans, whether they knew him personally. This jury has now been
:10:09. > :10:13.sworn in, and we also got a flavour of potential witnesses who could be
:10:14. > :10:19.called to court. At last count, I heard that nine MPs could come here
:10:20. > :10:22.to give evidence during this trial. This includes Conservative
:10:23. > :10:26.backbenchers Sarah Wollaston, the Commons Speaker, John Bercow, and
:10:27. > :10:32.the transport Secretary, Patrick McLoughlin. As you say, the case
:10:33. > :10:40.could last up to five weeks, and Nigel Evans denies all the charges
:10:41. > :10:42.against him. Labour leader Ed Miliband and Shadow
:10:43. > :10:49.Chancellor Ed Balls are announcing a new policy today. Not only that, but
:10:50. > :10:52.Labour says is their first manifesto spending pledge, and it is about the
:10:53. > :10:58.compulsory jobs guarantee. Under the scheme, 18 to 24-year-olds who have
:10:59. > :11:03.been out of work for one year will be offered a taxpayer subsidised job
:11:04. > :11:08.lasting six months. Those who refuse risk losing benefits. The scheme
:11:09. > :11:12.will also apply to adults aged 25 or over who have claimed jobseeker's
:11:13. > :11:16.allowance for two years or more. Ed Balls has previously suggested that
:11:17. > :11:19.the scheme would only be funded for the first year of a Labour
:11:20. > :11:23.government, but he now plans to extend it for the whole of the next
:11:24. > :11:27.parliament if they win in 2015. According to Labour, the first year
:11:28. > :11:33.of the scheme will be paid for by a repeat bankers' bonuses tax, raising
:11:34. > :11:37.?1.9 billion. After that, the project will be funded by a
:11:38. > :11:44.reduction in the rate of pension tax relief of 45% down to 20% on for
:11:45. > :11:49.people on more than ?125,000 per year. The Labour Party say this will
:11:50. > :11:52.raise ?900 million. Critics of the plans amount to a raid on pensions
:11:53. > :11:57.and that they leave a hole in funding for other key pledges, and
:11:58. > :12:00.that is because Labour says it is the only project which will be
:12:01. > :12:04.funded by a banker's bonus tax, which leaves open the question, how
:12:05. > :12:10.will they pay for other pledges, such as their promise to build
:12:11. > :12:14.200,000 homes per year by 2020? We can listen to Ed Miliband talking
:12:15. > :12:21.this morning. This scheme is fully costed and we will be paying for it
:12:22. > :12:25.by taxing bankers' bonuses and by restricting pensions tax relief for
:12:26. > :12:29.the highest earners on over ?150,000 per year, a right and fair decision
:12:30. > :12:33.to take to get our young people working again. We have got 56,000
:12:34. > :12:37.young people who have been out of work for more than 12 months, double
:12:38. > :12:42.what it was when this government came to power. They are not taking
:12:43. > :12:45.action, we will. Ed Miliband speaking earlier, and
:12:46. > :12:51.Stephen Timms joins us now. Under the jobs guarantee, Stephen Timms,
:12:52. > :12:57.long-term unemployed will be offered a job for six months, what happens
:12:58. > :13:02.to them after that? We would hope that most of them would stay on in
:13:03. > :13:05.those jobs. In Wales, there is a programme that is working along
:13:06. > :13:09.these lines, and they are finding that young people taken on with this
:13:10. > :13:12.subsidy for six months, 80% of them taken on by private companies are
:13:13. > :13:17.staying on in those jobs after the end of the six months, and you can
:13:18. > :13:20.understand why. Once a small company has invested six months of effort in
:13:21. > :13:24.somebody, as long as they are doing OK, the employer will want to keep
:13:25. > :13:33.them on. The other side of the coin is that it is cheap labour for
:13:34. > :13:36.companies, bearing in mind the Government will be subsidising it,
:13:37. > :13:38.six months, then back on the dole and they get a new one. The
:13:39. > :13:42.Government has to watch what is going on, and the jobs fund was in
:13:43. > :13:46.place before the last election, and you can make sure that kind of abuse
:13:47. > :13:50.does not take place. How many companies have signed up to be
:13:51. > :13:55.scheme? We have not yet announced which companies will be involved. I
:13:56. > :13:58.have been speaking to a major bank about it this morning, and there is
:13:59. > :14:03.a lot of enthusiasm amongst employers for helping particularly
:14:04. > :14:07.unemployed young people into work, and I think we will find no shortage
:14:08. > :14:11.of companies wanting to support the programme. But people will want to
:14:12. > :14:15.know whether you will be able to drill that down and keep to that
:14:16. > :14:19.guarantee, because we are talking about a lot of people being taken on
:14:20. > :14:24.potentially. You mentioned a bank, are you hoping it will be private
:14:25. > :14:27.firms and small businesses? In Wales, most of the placements are
:14:28. > :14:30.with private sector firms, mostly small ones, because those are the
:14:31. > :14:36.companies generating jobs at the moment, so we would certainly
:14:37. > :14:39.expect, on the Welsh example, about three quarters in the private
:14:40. > :14:43.sector. There will be jobs in charities, in the public sector as
:14:44. > :14:48.well, but a minority. We have not yet announced any companies that
:14:49. > :14:52.will definitely be delivering this. When will you make that
:14:53. > :14:55.announcement? We will be progressively making those
:14:56. > :14:59.announcements as people sign up between now and the election. As I
:15:00. > :15:04.say, there is no shortage of enthusiasm. Enthusiasm is different
:15:05. > :15:07.from people saying, we are going to take on five of the young people on
:15:08. > :15:15.the dole that you are talking about, 15 or 20. You must admit that.
:15:16. > :15:22.Indeed, but thankfully the economy is now growing. There are
:15:23. > :15:25.opportunities for people, when there wasn't. Employers are wanting to
:15:26. > :15:29.bring in people, particularly those that were out of work for a long
:15:30. > :15:33.time, to make sure that they become economic reproductive com in
:15:34. > :15:40.everybody's interests. Sounds like a good idea? I do think he a problem,
:15:41. > :15:46.so I commend him and others for trying to deal with it. But this is
:15:47. > :15:50.a big pledge? My feeling is that unemployment is going down, youth
:15:51. > :15:54.and climate is going down. It's still very high? It is, that is why
:15:55. > :15:57.it's important to talk about. Our levels of unemployment are much
:15:58. > :16:00.lower than in southern Europe. How do you make sure you have the right
:16:01. > :16:03.conditions for people to be employed? It is not just by
:16:04. > :16:08.politicians announcing everybody will have a job. What it is is
:16:09. > :16:11.making sure that you have flexible labour markets, skills among young
:16:12. > :16:16.people that make them attractive to employers. The rest is quick fixes
:16:17. > :16:20.paid for by the taxpayer. We've tried that in countries across
:16:21. > :16:23.southern Europe. It's not inflexible labour markets and goodwill by
:16:24. > :16:25.left-wing governments that make people employed, it is having a
:16:26. > :16:31.vibrant implement markets like we have in this country. I think Jeremy
:16:32. > :16:34.would recognise that there is a particular problem with people that
:16:35. > :16:36.have been out of work for a long time. Young people out of work for
:16:37. > :16:40.more than a year, older people out of work for more than two years.
:16:41. > :16:44.More young people out of work for over a year than at any time since
:16:45. > :16:48.1993. It does need special effort to get those back in work and that is
:16:49. > :16:52.what we're going to do. Let's look at how you would pay for it. It
:16:53. > :16:56.would be through a banker bonus tax. You know as well as I do, we had a
:16:57. > :17:00.Labour shadow minister sitting here saying they pledged that banker
:17:01. > :17:04.bonus tax to various schemes. Have there was all gone? More money for
:17:05. > :17:08.the regional growth fund, turning empty shops into community centres,
:17:09. > :17:15.building 25,000 new homes, that is all gone? If they are in the
:17:16. > :17:18.manifesto, we will explain at the time had that is going to be funded.
:17:19. > :17:23.Only the job guarantee will be funded from the bonus tax and the
:17:24. > :17:27.restriction on pension tax relief for people earning over ?150,000 per
:17:28. > :17:31.year. They will be funded differently, are you going to keep
:17:32. > :17:34.all of these pledges? This is one announcement about one commitment in
:17:35. > :17:38.the manifesto. We will speak about the others as the time draws near.
:17:39. > :17:42.There is not a commitment to put those into the manifesto at the
:17:43. > :17:47.moment. There is? The housing policy could go? They could. All of them,
:17:48. > :17:52.in that case! Were those policies worth the paper they were written
:17:53. > :17:55.on? What would have been saying for some time is that these are things
:17:56. > :17:58.the Government could be doing now and we have explained how they could
:17:59. > :18:02.be doing it now. What we have set out today is what is going to be in
:18:03. > :18:05.our manifesto next year. We have this one commitment we are anxious
:18:06. > :18:10.that people should hear about today. That is the banker bonus tax, ?1.9
:18:11. > :18:14.billion. Alistair Darling, former Labour Chancellor who introduced the
:18:15. > :18:19.tax, said it would only be effective as a one-off. Do you agree that
:18:20. > :18:27.actually it is a very ambitious figure to look at again? No, I think
:18:28. > :18:31.it's very realistic. Based on? Based on the fact that banker bonuses is
:18:32. > :18:37.going up again. We have seen quite large rises announced by major
:18:38. > :18:40.banks. When would it apply? We would introduce it straight after the
:18:41. > :18:43.election. I imagine it would apply in the financial year starting in
:18:44. > :18:48.April 2015, depending on whether we get the mechanics ready in time. Do
:18:49. > :18:53.you think that figure adds up? ?1.9 billion seems like a very large
:18:54. > :18:59.figure. Labour's phones only add up if the banks pay they get bonuses to
:19:00. > :19:02.employees. Labour presumably become a party cheerleading for banker
:19:03. > :19:08.bonuses, as the only way to make their manifesto had. It is a
:19:09. > :19:12.windfall tax. They are not going to do that, are they? The bonuses are
:19:13. > :19:16.going up, it's appropriate that we say to those people doing very, very
:19:17. > :19:20.well, you should be making a contribution to young people into
:19:21. > :19:24.work. I recognise this, when the Lib Dems were in opposition for decades,
:19:25. > :19:27.we used to come up with policies that were not properly costed
:19:28. > :19:29.because we didn't think we would ever have doing the mend them. I
:19:30. > :19:35.recognise the phenomenon that is Labour now. -- didn't have to
:19:36. > :19:39.implement them. Every single time this Government has come up with a
:19:40. > :19:44.proposal to get the appalling deficit down, Labour has opposed it.
:19:45. > :19:47.Labour is sitting on tens of liens of pounds of costed commitments.
:19:48. > :19:52.They are all going to pay for it, supposedly, by these bankers they
:19:53. > :19:56.have not identified. They will keep their fingers crossed that those
:19:57. > :20:02.bonuses will be so high it will pay for a handful of their commitments.
:20:03. > :20:08.The bonus tax will solely play -- pay for the job guarantee. There is
:20:09. > :20:14.an irony, that you needed to be high to cover this ambitious pledge? They
:20:15. > :20:18.are still going up. You want them to go up, because otherwise it won't
:20:19. > :20:22.add up. The amount yielded by the bonus tax will easily cover the cost
:20:23. > :20:26.for the first year. The Treasury says the policy doesn't add up. You
:20:27. > :20:31.claim the jobs guarantee will cost ?1.9 billion in the first year,
:20:32. > :20:34.Treasury officials say it will cost ?2.6 billion per year. Have you
:20:35. > :20:38.underestimated the cost of the scheme? The Treasury say they have
:20:39. > :20:43.figures that it will be almost ?1 billion more. How will you convince
:20:44. > :20:46.the electorate? The only basis on which that could be the case is if
:20:47. > :20:50.youth unemployment is about to go through the roof. On the basis of
:20:51. > :20:55.the current levels, which I hope will come down as the economy grows
:20:56. > :20:59.in the next year, the cost of delivering the guarantee will
:21:00. > :21:02.reduce. You're going to be taking money from older people to pay for
:21:03. > :21:06.the younger generation? He will reduce the rate of pension tax
:21:07. > :21:11.relief? Or people earning over ?150,000 per year.
:21:12. > :21:14.If you are watching this, it means you have hopefully paid your licence
:21:15. > :21:20.fee. If you haven't, watch out, we will send Andrew round first thing
:21:21. > :21:24.to get it, and he can be grumpy in the morning. If you watch broadcasts
:21:25. > :21:28.on your TV or other electronic device, at the moment you can be
:21:29. > :21:32.convicted and fined. There are moves afoot to make it a civil offence,
:21:33. > :21:37.not a criminal offence. Would this lead to more people failing to pay?
:21:38. > :21:40.Let's look at the kind of high-tech TV detector vans that were in action
:21:41. > :21:45.in the 19 six days. Licence dodgers watch out! The
:21:46. > :21:50.Minister of Telecom indications is on the warpath. Nearly 1.25 million
:21:51. > :21:55.householders watch the telly and don't buy a licence. But they'd
:21:56. > :21:59.better, and quick. Vans would highly efficient equipment are out in
:22:00. > :22:07.force, in an intensive campaign to cut back drastically the number of
:22:08. > :22:09.welshers. He says it's a fair deal for everyone, honest folk should not
:22:10. > :22:16.subsidise the others. If you switch on, be prepared to pay up. We are
:22:17. > :22:19.joined now by the Conservative MP Andrew Bridgen, who has described
:22:20. > :22:24.the licence fee as a poll tax and who wants to decriminalise
:22:25. > :22:28.nonpayment. We're also joined by the shadow culture minister Helen
:22:29. > :22:31.Goodman. Welcome both of you. Andrew Bridgen, you are proposing that the
:22:32. > :22:33.nonpayment should be decriminalised, have you thought
:22:34. > :22:40.through the invitations long-term for the BBC? Do you care? I do care,
:22:41. > :22:44.there are many things I like about the BBC, some things I think they
:22:45. > :22:48.get wrong. The relationship with the consumer, criminalising them if they
:22:49. > :22:53.don't pay it, is placing a barrier to the BBC. I think it is making the
:22:54. > :22:57.BBC distant and disconnected. In fact, there is some derision, in
:22:58. > :23:01.some areas. And it is driven by this, this disconnect. What about
:23:02. > :23:07.the figures of people that are prosecuted, can you give us an idea
:23:08. > :23:11.of what we're talking about? To huge problem, a huge burden on the
:23:12. > :23:16.Magistrates' Court. One in five cases in 2012 were due to nonpayment
:23:17. > :23:19.of TV licences. The magistrates themselves have been calling for
:23:20. > :23:22.decriminalisation for over 20 years. I had a number of e-mails from
:23:23. > :23:27.magistrates supporting my campaign. If the BBC were to find out of a
:23:28. > :23:30.banana republic country, where they announced they were going to have a
:23:31. > :23:35.poll tax to allow people to have access to television, regardless of
:23:36. > :23:37.income, and threaten people with criminal prosecution and
:23:38. > :23:40.imprisonment, and that the majority of people in prison would be women
:23:41. > :23:44.with children, there would be outcry, but that is what we have
:23:45. > :23:49.got. It's a poll tax, it should be got rid of, no longer criminalising
:23:50. > :23:53.people? I think there is a question mark about whether it is right that
:23:54. > :23:57.people should end up going to prison. I also think it has to be
:23:58. > :24:02.set amongst the increase of the number of people that would probably
:24:03. > :24:09.not pay. For every 1% of people that don't pay, that costs 35mm is. That
:24:10. > :24:13.would mean a reduction in services, fewer jobs. -- 35mm pounds. I think
:24:14. > :24:18.this is one we should put into the discussions for the new royal
:24:19. > :24:24.charter. Let's look at the figures. 1% increase innovation, this is the
:24:25. > :24:26.BBC spokesman, it would lead to a loss of around ?35 million, the
:24:27. > :24:32.equivalent of about three local radio stations. I think it's very
:24:33. > :24:36.emotive to say that instead of cutting back on extra redundancy
:24:37. > :24:40.payment when somebody is made redundant, all wasting ?100 million
:24:41. > :24:44.on the digital initiative, it is going to be local radio stations.
:24:45. > :24:54.That is very emotive. The BBC are playing a blinder on PR, but they do
:24:55. > :24:59.work in media! Do you concede that there will be more income lost? It
:25:00. > :25:02.is up to the BBC to set systems in place. We don't criminalise people
:25:03. > :25:08.for nonpayment of parking fines, it is a civil offence and that have to
:25:09. > :25:12.be connected. The timing, as Helen Goodman suggests, would it not be
:25:13. > :25:16.better to tie it in on the overall funding arrangements and charter
:25:17. > :25:19.renewal in 26 team? What we can see from the cross-section, the
:25:20. > :25:24.political spectrum, is that there is a feeling in the House of Commons
:25:25. > :25:28.that it is disproportionate to criminalise. If it is wrong, it is
:25:29. > :25:32.wrong. Saying we will decriminalise it in another two years or three
:25:33. > :25:38.years, it is wrong or right, if it is wrong, it is wrong now. Otherwise
:25:39. > :25:42.we are going to make criminals of another 45,000 people unnecessarily.
:25:43. > :25:46.Where do you stand on this? I think it is to Coney and to send people to
:25:47. > :25:53.prison, but I wonder if it is a substitute of a bigger debate, along
:25:54. > :25:57.the lines of the long-term funding of the BBC. There is a debate about
:25:58. > :26:01.whether in 20 years time the licence fee model is going to be compatible
:26:02. > :26:05.with viewing habits. But as that is the system we have at the moment, I
:26:06. > :26:08.think people should pay their TV licence. What is your view in terms
:26:09. > :26:14.of the sustainability of the licence fee and funding for the BBC? I
:26:15. > :26:18.certainly think we can have another round with the licence fee. 97% of
:26:19. > :26:21.people use the BBC. It's a very fairway, given that a lot of people
:26:22. > :26:27.use it, it is cheaper than subscriptions to some other channels
:26:28. > :26:30.. I think there is quite a lot of support amongst the public. It means
:26:31. > :26:35.that, actually, the system for collecting the money is simple than
:26:36. > :26:40.if you move over to subscription. Should we continue with the licence
:26:41. > :26:44.fee model for another session? I think that is probably necessary.
:26:45. > :26:48.But I think decriminalisation can be accommodated at the same time. What
:26:49. > :26:52.would you like to see, in 2016, in terms of funding arrangements for
:26:53. > :26:58.the BBC? Would you like to see the licence fee go up or frozen? I think
:26:59. > :27:03.it needs to be frozen until it is changed to a different mechanism.
:27:04. > :27:08.What different mechanism? I think it should be subscript. You do? But in
:27:09. > :27:11.the meantime, there are a lot of income streams the BBC can access. I
:27:12. > :27:15.know friends of mine that live abroad that would love to access the
:27:16. > :27:19.BBC, Spain, Italy or France, they are not able to and they would pay
:27:20. > :27:25.for that. There is an income stream there and I think we could make
:27:26. > :27:33.money out of iPlayer, micro-charging... But should this
:27:34. > :27:37.not be discussed... Necessity is the mother of invention. You would like
:27:38. > :27:47.to see subscript and after 2020? Probably, yes, if not sooner. What
:27:48. > :27:50.is clear is that people do not like advertisements on the BBC. That is
:27:51. > :27:55.another advantage of the licence fee. The BBC says that a
:27:56. > :28:00.subscription model would lead to more expensive fees, paid for by
:28:01. > :28:04.fewer people. Do you accept that? There are lots of different options.
:28:05. > :28:08.There is a possibility of having a smaller, concentrated licence fee
:28:09. > :28:11.and then subscription on top of that, stripping the core BBC offer
:28:12. > :28:16.down to the really obvious public service broadcasting and saying, if
:28:17. > :28:18.you want the best, you can buy through funding methods. The
:28:19. > :28:21.difficulty is you get more and more, particularly young people, not
:28:22. > :28:25.watching live programmes but watching it through their computers.
:28:26. > :28:30.They are not paying and other people sitting at home are paying. The
:28:31. > :28:32.system will become harder in time to sustain. I think the BBC need to be
:28:33. > :28:37.thinking about how they can operate in a world that has some licence
:28:38. > :28:42.fee, or no licence fee, rather than assuming that for decades to come
:28:43. > :28:45.we'll have the same system. There is a word that sends a cold chill down
:28:46. > :28:50.the spine of ministers of State, a word that can mean a brighter future
:28:51. > :28:55.in government or a humiliating exit. Reshuffles, part of the political
:28:56. > :28:59.landscape. As a junior minister, as our guest today has been, is it very
:29:00. > :29:04.fair? Does being good at the job count and does it hurt getting
:29:05. > :29:09.dumped? Being the Parliamentary under sect
:29:10. > :29:15.tree -- Undersecretary of state media have made it to Whitehall and
:29:16. > :29:20.government. Using it more usual title, being junior minister is the
:29:21. > :29:25.lowest paid run on the government ladder. And which of those bits of
:29:26. > :29:28.title you get to be, junior or minister, really depends on the
:29:29. > :29:32.character of the secretary of state and the department you are in. If
:29:33. > :29:36.you are in the Foreign Office, you can be junior minister for an entire
:29:37. > :29:43.continent. If you are in transport, you might end up junior Minister of
:29:44. > :29:49.State for cycle lanes. When I was in the environment, the transport
:29:50. > :29:53.department, a huge department, many junior ministers, life was a cascade
:29:54. > :29:59.of all the things that one's ministers didn't want to do. Some of
:30:00. > :30:03.them want to get all the headlines themselves, they will micromanage
:30:04. > :30:06.the team. What you need is ministers that know what they are about, know
:30:07. > :30:10.their brief and have the competence and relations with the outside
:30:11. > :30:13.bodies that they are there to serve and look after, to be able to push
:30:14. > :30:16.forward their programme of reform. If you have got that, then a good
:30:17. > :30:21.secretary of state should leave you alone to get on with it. If allowed,
:30:22. > :30:24.you can make a junior ministerial roll your own. Don't pussyfoot about
:30:25. > :30:30.and it is certainly a way of getting further up the ministerial ladder.
:30:31. > :30:33.Ultimately, that Cabinet table. But there is a clock ticking on your
:30:34. > :30:37.time in office. And there are a couple of really odd things about
:30:38. > :30:40.your role. First, you can get appointed without knowing the first
:30:41. > :30:44.thing about the subject you're going to cover. If you do get a handle on
:30:45. > :30:48.it, and actually get good at the job, that is no guarantee you will
:30:49. > :30:55.get to keep the job when that especially chilling word, reshuffle,
:30:56. > :30:59.gets mentioned. After a couple of years, when I think I was by that
:31:00. > :31:03.time of some use, the man in Number Ten raises its finger by this much,
:31:04. > :31:07.and you are gone, and some other poor blighter has to be briefed all
:31:08. > :31:11.over again, and the learning curve is quite steep. In the last
:31:12. > :31:15.government in office for quite a long time, there were 30 Europe
:31:16. > :31:18.ministers, eight Work and Pensions Secretary is, and nine African
:31:19. > :31:24.ministers. While the coalition has chopped and changed, it has been far
:31:25. > :31:27.less, although the added dilemma for them as been squeezing two parties
:31:28. > :31:33.into one government. Our guests today has been suffered that, being
:31:34. > :31:36.eased out for a colleague who has no beard but did raise eyebrows. There
:31:37. > :31:42.are fewer jobs for Conservative ministers, we have to share them
:31:43. > :31:46.with the Lib Dems. There is a limited gene pool to pull those
:31:47. > :31:52.ministers from, parts of the coalition as well, so it is a
:31:53. > :31:57.question of it being someone's turn, and we need to push someone up the
:31:58. > :32:02.greasy pole even if you have done a good job. It all begs the question
:32:03. > :32:06.that whilst any PM probably should retain the right to pick his or her
:32:07. > :32:11.government, does a regular switch of those who are in it made for decent
:32:12. > :32:18.government or anything more than fun for speculating politicos like as?
:32:19. > :32:21.We are joined now by journalist and former Conservative MP Michael
:32:22. > :32:26.Brown, welcome to the programme. Jeremy, are the junior post really
:32:27. > :32:32.about patronage rather than ability? They are probably a bit of both. I
:32:33. > :32:36.agree with the film that it depends quite a lot on the character of the
:32:37. > :32:41.Secretary of State and how he or she runs the department, and it depends
:32:42. > :32:46.a lot on the department itself. In some departments, junior ministers
:32:47. > :32:51.have bigger roles. Let's look at the patronage, if it is a case of that,
:32:52. > :32:55.as we heard from Tim Loughton, talking about the fact that it is
:32:56. > :32:59.such and such a person's turn, are there some people who should not be
:33:00. > :33:03.junior ministers? Let me put it slightly differently, which is that
:33:04. > :33:06.David Cameron and Nick Clegg, before then Gordon Brown and Tony Blair,
:33:07. > :33:10.had never done any jobs in government apart from being Deputy
:33:11. > :33:14.Prime Minister, Prime Minister and Chancellor. None of them had been
:33:15. > :33:18.junior ministers. I am not sure how much they know about what it is to
:33:19. > :33:24.be a junior minister and what it entails, and they may see the
:33:25. > :33:30.benefit of moving people around, freshening it up, but they may
:33:31. > :33:34.exaggerate the benefits of that and sometimes overlook the disruptive
:33:35. > :33:38.effects of it. The voters will say surely it is the best person for the
:33:39. > :33:42.job and should be about ability in these roles. So far as the boat is
:33:43. > :33:46.concerned, I suspect the only thing that the voter of the Somerset
:33:47. > :33:50.constituency that Jeremy represents is the fact that he is a Member of
:33:51. > :33:54.Parliament. I was a junior whip in the back end of the John Major
:33:55. > :33:58.government, and my being in government counted for absolutely
:33:59. > :34:01.nothing so far as my constituents were concerned. The voters are
:34:02. > :34:05.concerned about who is the Prime Minister, the Chancellor, the
:34:06. > :34:11.Foreign Secretary, maybe the Home Secretary, but beyond that, under
:34:12. > :34:15.secretaries of state are of no consequence. Do you see them as
:34:16. > :34:20.junior ministers for paperclips? Is that what the role is? Frankly, I
:34:21. > :34:24.would say to everybody that gets the chance, you have to accept the
:34:25. > :34:30.invitation to be a junior minister to know what drudgery it is. Jeremy,
:34:31. > :34:35.and by the way, anybody, and this is the words of a very senior whip in
:34:36. > :34:42.the Margaret Thatcher government who died this year, the late Robert
:34:43. > :34:46.Boscombe, he was a long serving government whip, and when he was
:34:47. > :34:50.asked his opinion about whether somebody was capable of being a
:34:51. > :34:55.junior minister he said, he can read, can't he? So long as you can
:34:56. > :35:00.read and are a Member of Parliament, those are the sole qualifications.
:35:01. > :35:04.So we assume you can read, Jeremy! There is quite a bit of drudgery,
:35:05. > :35:08.because some of the tasks are tasks that the Secretary of State does not
:35:09. > :35:13.wish to do but probably thinks that somebody should do them. Almost by
:35:14. > :35:19.definition, they are the unexciting tasks that need to keep ticking
:35:20. > :35:25.boxes. Were you upset at losing your role? Being a Foreign Office
:35:26. > :35:29.minister was more exciting than being a junior minister in the Home
:35:30. > :35:34.Office. You cover huge part of the world where the Secretary of State
:35:35. > :35:38.is unlikely to go and you are the most senior minister that that part
:35:39. > :35:43.of the world is ever going to see. But was that because the boss there
:35:44. > :35:50.debut more power and scope? That would be telling tales. Absolutely!
:35:51. > :35:54.So tell us! Anybody who has been in any workplace will know that some
:35:55. > :35:57.bosses are willing to give you a little bit more freedom and
:35:58. > :36:01.discrimination and others are more controlling. In the case of the
:36:02. > :36:05.Liberal Democrats, who have not been in government for over half a
:36:06. > :36:10.century, obviously they need to take every opportunity in this Parliament
:36:11. > :36:13.to get the experience. But I say too many of the Tories who want to be
:36:14. > :36:19.junior ministers, it is not worth the candle. Jeremy is absolutely
:36:20. > :36:24.right to say... It is easy to say that. David Cameron has never been a
:36:25. > :36:33.junior minister, nor was Tony Blair or Gordon Brown. Does it mean that
:36:34. > :36:41.he will keep it if you are suited to it? Everybody deserves a turn... Do
:36:42. > :36:44.they? Yes, I would say they do. It is important to refresh the ranks.
:36:45. > :36:48.Jeremy was obviously disappointed when he stopped being a minister,
:36:49. > :36:56.but between now and the next election he and his constituents who
:36:57. > :36:59.is -- whose confidence he hopes to retain will be grateful he is not
:37:00. > :37:03.flying around the world. That may help you in the run-up to the
:37:04. > :37:10.general election, but do you agree that everyone deserves a turn? No, I
:37:11. > :37:15.wouldn't go that far. I think there are some... I agree on the related
:37:16. > :37:19.point in that it is probably a delusion to think the perceptions of
:37:20. > :37:24.the government will be altered by the junior ministers. The people out
:37:25. > :37:27.there form their perceptions of the government based on what they think
:37:28. > :37:31.of the Prime Minister or other senior figures. Patrick McLoughlin
:37:32. > :37:36.was sacked by John Major, ten years later he became the longest serving
:37:37. > :37:39.government Chief Whip and is a very successful transport minister. Being
:37:40. > :37:44.sacked is not the end of it. Snakes and ladders, that is politics.
:37:45. > :37:49.George Young was sacked by Margaret Thatcher, he is still serving in the
:37:50. > :37:53.Government. There is hope yet! Now it is time to look at the week
:37:54. > :37:57.ahead, and we are joined by a journalist from one of the oldest
:37:58. > :38:04.newspapers in the world, Laura Patel of the Times, and one of the newest
:38:05. > :38:06.rivals, Jim Waterson of Buzzfeed. Buzzfeed is one of the
:38:07. > :38:10.fastest-growing news sites thanks to items such as witch-hunt the games
:38:11. > :38:17.character are you and 50 puppies to help you get through work today. --
:38:18. > :38:21.which hunger games character. Here is our look at the week ahead in the
:38:22. > :38:25.style of Buzzfeed. With tension still high in Crimea, the Prime
:38:26. > :38:30.Minister will make a statement this afternoon on the situation in
:38:31. > :38:34.Ukraine. Also today, the Care Bill is back in the Commons, the vote on
:38:35. > :38:36.plans to give greater power to the Health Secretary to close hospital
:38:37. > :38:42.departments will take place later in the week. And former Prime Minister
:38:43. > :38:45.Gordon Brown will today outlined six constitutional reforms as a positive
:38:46. > :38:51.alternative to Scottish independence. Tomorrow Universities
:38:52. > :38:56.Minister David Willetts will announce a UK contribution of over
:38:57. > :39:02.?200 million to three pager European space projects. Also on Tuesday, the
:39:03. > :39:04.Governor of the Bank of England appears before the Treasury Select
:39:05. > :39:09.Committee, where he will be asked about a currency union with an
:39:10. > :39:13.independent Scotland. On Wednesday, the weekly bout of Prime Minister's
:39:14. > :39:16.Questions. Thursday sees the start of the Scottish Conservative Party
:39:17. > :39:22.conference. Let's hope our guests are still there, still await! Let's
:39:23. > :39:27.talk about tax. How much of an issue is the fact that more people are
:39:28. > :39:31.being caught up in the 40p bracket? It is something that is getting Tory
:39:32. > :39:36.MPs very animated. They feel there have been tax cuts for lower paid
:39:37. > :39:39.people since George Osborne great the threshold in conjunction with
:39:40. > :39:43.the Liberal Democrats for basic rate tax, and more and more people have
:39:44. > :39:48.been sucked into the upper rate. The Conservatives consider those core
:39:49. > :39:52.voters, people earning ?40,000 or ?50,000. They have to be a little
:39:53. > :39:56.bit careful, because sometimes they talk about the squeezed middle, and
:39:57. > :40:01.those people are not necessarily the middle. The average income is about
:40:02. > :40:04.?26,000. They have to be careful with their language, but it is going
:40:05. > :40:09.after those people, doctors, train drivers, people who are in the
:40:10. > :40:14.middle bracket who could get sucked into that rate. One idea put forward
:40:15. > :40:19.at the weekend is that scrapping the rate, lowering the threshold for the
:40:20. > :40:24.45p rate to those earning around ?62,000, do you think that will gain
:40:25. > :40:28.traction? I cannot see that happening, it is a pretty strong
:40:29. > :40:32.line, you do not want to cut taxes for people who are perceived to be
:40:33. > :40:36.rich. Earning 50 grand outside London is a lot of money, but it is
:40:37. > :40:41.a London issue when you are concerned about teachers earning
:40:42. > :40:45.that. It is a case of the media seeing the capital, rather than
:40:46. > :40:50.people in Halifax struggling to get by. Do you agree that is a regional
:40:51. > :40:54.debate, London being seen as different in every way to the rest
:40:55. > :40:59.of the UK on the issue of tax as well? Yeah, I think there is an
:41:00. > :41:03.element of that, and it is easy for those in politics or the media, God
:41:04. > :41:09.forbid, to forget that there are people on low incomes outside of the
:41:10. > :41:13.capital. I was just going to say that the Tory party is trying to
:41:14. > :41:17.pitch itself in lots of directions, there was a drive for them to make
:41:18. > :41:25.themselves out as the workers' party, John Major saying, look, we
:41:26. > :41:28.can support a working-class kid from Brixton and make him Prime Minister.
:41:29. > :41:34.But then there are those who want to keep the core voters happy, a
:41:35. > :41:41.difficult balance. The Lib Dems' spring conference, obviously lots of
:41:42. > :41:46.fun, Nigel you were there, but what about the leadership issue? We had
:41:47. > :41:49.Nick Clegg, first of all asked whether he would sort of stands down
:41:50. > :41:53.if the Lib Dems weren't in government at the Lib Dems weren't
:41:54. > :41:58.in government after 2015. After response, we had a strong line, he
:41:59. > :42:01.will be there as leader until 2020 no matter what happens, which seems
:42:02. > :42:06.pretty unlikely if they are not in government. If he stayed until 2020
:42:07. > :42:10.with the Lib Dems in opposition, he would have been a leader for 13
:42:11. > :42:16.years, the public would be sick of him and he would be going out of his
:42:17. > :42:20.mind unable to do anything. Before the weekend, we heard that he was
:42:21. > :42:25.young to have a second career, possibly back in Europe. It is all a
:42:26. > :42:30.bit messy. I'm sorry, a particularly loud motorbike went past! Talking
:42:31. > :42:35.about Nick Clegg's leadership, we heard that because he is young, he
:42:36. > :42:38.has a chance of a second career, so the whole issue has been a bit
:42:39. > :42:43.messy. It was strange they did not have their ducks in a row ahead of
:42:44. > :42:46.the conference. It is impossible to speculate at this stage, really,
:42:47. > :42:51.because so many different things can happen with either rural Democrats.
:42:52. > :42:56.They could be wiped out at the next election, they could be in coalition
:42:57. > :42:59.with Labour or the Conservatives. Whether they are going to the left
:43:00. > :43:04.or the right, that will affect it was the leaders. I am sure Miriam
:43:05. > :43:10.Clegg would be delighted if he packed it in, but as she has not had
:43:11. > :43:16.a save as file. Now that motorbike has finally gone, what about the
:43:17. > :43:20.others? What about Vince Cable, Danny Alexander? If you were at the
:43:21. > :43:26.conference last autumn, you would find the left wing of the party was
:43:27. > :43:30.pretty quiet, and it was not clear whether there was support for a
:43:31. > :43:37.left-wing candidate. Tim Farron has been positioning himself, but there
:43:38. > :43:40.seems to be the economically liberal people who are remaining. I would
:43:41. > :43:45.have thought Nick Clegg, if you want to stay on, will not have any
:43:46. > :43:48.trouble for as long as it once. Can we look forward to a list on
:43:49. > :43:54.Buzzfeed of potential Lib Dem leaders? We will do our best, but I
:43:55. > :43:59.think it will be a short one! On that crushing note, thank you very
:44:00. > :44:03.much. As we heard, Nick Clegg said the hair running when the party put
:44:04. > :44:06.out a statement which appeared to suggest he would quit leadership of
:44:07. > :44:10.the party if it was not in power in 2015. By the end of the day, they
:44:11. > :44:14.said he was staying put no matter what, so what is the best way for
:44:15. > :44:18.the leader to handle that tricky question of when and how to stand
:44:19. > :44:25.down? This montage contains flash photography.
:44:26. > :44:30.Could I ask you to comment? This is the microphone. I am naturally very
:44:31. > :44:32.pleased that I got more than half the Parliamentary party,
:44:33. > :44:36.disappointed that it is not quite enough to win on the first ballot,
:44:37. > :44:41.so I confirm it is my intention to lead mining go forward on the second
:44:42. > :44:45.ballot. Today I announce my decision to stand down from the leadership of
:44:46. > :44:52.the Labour Party. The party will now select a new leader on the 27th of
:44:53. > :44:55.June, I will tender my resignation from the office of Prime Minister. I
:44:56. > :45:02.have been Prime Minister of this country for just over ten years. In
:45:03. > :45:13.this job, in the world of today, I think that's long enough. For me,
:45:14. > :45:15.but more especially for the country. I'm announcing today that when
:45:16. > :45:18.nominations open I will not be putting my name forward. I am
:45:19. > :45:24.standing down as leader, with immediate effect. Charles Kennedy,
:45:25. > :45:29.ending that montage. A trip down memory lane for the guests. We have
:45:30. > :45:33.been joined now by the Conservative Margot James and labour's Owen
:45:34. > :45:37.Smith. John McTernan is also with us, he used to advise Tony Blair on
:45:38. > :45:41.political strategy. Welcome to all of you. John McTernan, was at a
:45:42. > :45:45.fatal political mistake for Tony Blair to announce that fighting the
:45:46. > :45:49.2005 general election, he would serve a full term and step down to
:45:50. > :45:53.allow a succession to take place. Because it didn't happen? The best
:45:54. > :45:57.thing to do is what Harold Wilson did, shocked everybody. The truth
:45:58. > :46:02.is, use all leaders in the montage who all had to say what they said
:46:03. > :46:05.because they were weak and under threat. Strong leaders don't need to
:46:06. > :46:09.defend themselves, weak leaders do. The right thing to do is to breeze
:46:10. > :46:13.through all of it and say, you voted for me, I am on the ticket, it is my
:46:14. > :46:16.agenda, I will deliver it. But you can only get away with it when you
:46:17. > :46:23.are strong. As soon as you are weak, you can't get away with it, which is
:46:24. > :46:26.why Nick Clegg has questions now. Great in theory, but who says to the
:46:27. > :46:30.leader, you are weak, you are going to become weak, better to think
:46:31. > :46:36.about stepping off the stage? There are moments in politics when the
:46:37. > :46:40.forces that surround you are unbeatable, that you're going to go
:46:41. > :46:44.through the same thing again, again and again. Charles Kennedy got
:46:45. > :46:48.there. The truth is, Margaret Thatcher, you can see in her eyes
:46:49. > :46:53.she knew that she was there. The Labour Party chose, insanely, to
:46:54. > :46:56.ditch its most successful elected leader ever. The only one ever in
:46:57. > :47:02.history to win three elections in a row, never won for the election, and
:47:03. > :47:06.this is the problem. The internals become too difficult to manage. What
:47:07. > :47:11.do you say to that? It was mad for the Labour Party to ditch him, and
:47:12. > :47:16.yet, he won three elections, but it seemed his time was up? I think it
:47:17. > :47:18.was. It had been subjected to a sustained campaign of vilification
:47:19. > :47:22.from Gordon Brown and his henchmen for years. I think the Labour Party
:47:23. > :47:26.should have been careful what it wished for. It got what it wished
:47:27. > :47:31.for. Gordon Brown, really, was not a good Prime Minister. What about
:47:32. > :47:36.David Cameron? Should he stay on to 2020, come what may? David Cameron
:47:37. > :47:41.is Prime Minister, I hope you will be again after the 2015 election.
:47:42. > :47:45.There is no need for speculation. Except we have had one coalition, if
:47:46. > :47:50.the Tories do not win an overall majority, should he stay on? I think
:47:51. > :47:56.that is a decision for him. The tradition in recent years has been,
:47:57. > :47:59.I mean, the tradition has been backed leaders, prime ministers that
:48:00. > :48:03.have lost general election is, have stepped down. Conservative Party
:48:04. > :48:07.leaders have stepped down as well. But what if they don't win an
:48:08. > :48:11.overall majority, as last time? The biggest party, does not win an
:48:12. > :48:16.overall majority, has to have a coalition, should he step down?
:48:17. > :48:20.Well, he'll have various choices. He could possibly lead a minority
:48:21. > :48:25.government, he could lead a coalition. It depends on what the
:48:26. > :48:30.electorate, really, decides. Trying to prejudge it, second guess at this
:48:31. > :48:34.stage, is futile. But it isn't the electorate in the end, in those
:48:35. > :48:38.discussions, it is the party, MPs, the Cabinet in Margaret Thatcher's
:48:39. > :48:42.case, rivals within the party like Gordon Brown, they are not in
:48:43. > :48:46.charge. Nick Clegg, John McTernan says he's in that position, a weak
:48:47. > :48:50.leader, which is why those discussions are coming up now? I
:48:51. > :48:54.think it's very unhelpful. We are in a really difficult position as a
:48:55. > :48:58.party. We are on about 9% in the opinion polls, looking at a very
:48:59. > :49:01.tough European election, a very difficult general election next
:49:02. > :49:05.year. What I would say to any of my colleagues is, you know, don't go
:49:06. > :49:08.around spending your whole time telling the newspaper is what a
:49:09. > :49:11.wonderful leader you would be after the next general election, why did
:49:12. > :49:14.you get on with helping the candidate in marginal seats to make
:49:15. > :49:17.sure we are a force to be reckoned with and the leadership of Nick
:49:18. > :49:22.Clegg and can be in government again, doing the right things for
:49:23. > :49:26.the country? Is that Vince Cable and Danny Alexander? I'm not naming any
:49:27. > :49:30.names. I think if I was standing in a marginal seat, and I am standing
:49:31. > :49:36.in a marginal seat... I hate to remind you! Less marginal than it
:49:37. > :49:40.was. But if I was standing, talking to a lot of candidates in seats they
:49:41. > :49:44.are hoping to win, working extraordinarily hard, I would not be
:49:45. > :49:46.hugely impressed by anybody in the Liberal Democrats taking on spin
:49:47. > :49:48.doctors to go around telling everybody what a wonderful
:49:49. > :49:53.leadership contender they would be after the next general election.
:49:54. > :49:55.Nick Clegg is the leader, we chose him collectively and we are all
:49:56. > :50:00.behind making sure that we get the best possible election outcome. I
:50:01. > :50:04.think the rest is unhelpful. All suite in the garden for Labour, no
:50:05. > :50:10.spec elation about Ed Miliband? None. I don't think there is any.
:50:11. > :50:16.Lots about Nick Clegg, even in the Labour Party. What happens after the
:50:17. > :50:20.next election if Labour is not at least the largest party, never mind
:50:21. > :50:25.winning an overall majority? Does Ed go? I fully anticipate he's going to
:50:26. > :50:33.be the next Prime Minister, therefore... If he isn't, does he
:50:34. > :50:41.go? It's difficult to get straight answers! Don't say that, and make it
:50:42. > :50:45.more difficult for me. We can talk about Nick Clegg all day long, I
:50:46. > :50:50.think he should have gone when they lost to the Bus Pass Elvis Party. Of
:50:51. > :50:54.course it will go on and on, to coin a phrase, he will do what Tony Blair
:50:55. > :50:59.did, announcing a well before he stepped down? The guys on the other
:51:00. > :51:02.benches are your opposition, the guys on your ventures are your
:51:03. > :51:07.enemies, and you have to be strong and crush your enemies when you can.
:51:08. > :51:10.-- on your benches. Always good to use power to eliminate dissent
:51:11. > :51:15.within. Or have a party like the Labour Party at the moment, where
:51:16. > :51:20.they have united around Ed Miliband. Because there is no real surround?
:51:21. > :51:24.They were evenly split between David and Ed, they have seen what was done
:51:25. > :51:27.to the previous Labour Government by disunity and have chosen to be
:51:28. > :51:33.united. If he does not form a government, I think he will get a
:51:34. > :51:41.second shot, because he took us from 20% to 38%. Those are good numbers.
:51:42. > :51:45.So, he could still stay? Let's about Nick Clegg as well. That is a
:51:46. > :51:49.symptom of labour's weakness, that is because he does not have a
:51:50. > :51:53.challenger in his party to confront the difficult issues. Oh, come on!
:51:54. > :51:59.Did you not see the special conference? The last time they have
:52:00. > :52:04.a working majority and Tony Blair was not the leader, was the year
:52:05. > :52:07.that England won the football World Cup. They got rid of the one leader
:52:08. > :52:11.that was capable of winning and replaced him, eventually, with the
:52:12. > :52:16.current leader. Well, having a leader that didn't win an election,
:52:17. > :52:22.but certainly brought them into power, if the Lib Dems... He's the
:52:23. > :52:27.most successful Lib Dem leader in my or my grandparent's lifetime. But
:52:28. > :52:32.should he stay as leader? I could just say it's speculative and I will
:52:33. > :52:37.not speculate. But it's a perfectly possible scenario, where we have a
:52:38. > :52:40.bigger force in British politics, but not in government. It's
:52:41. > :52:44.perfectly possible one of the other two parties would prefer to be a
:52:45. > :52:48.weak minority government and be part of a strong coalition government.
:52:49. > :52:52.It's hard to answer that. Indeed, let's move on. Spring is in the air,
:52:53. > :52:55.certainly at the weekend, the daffodils are out. At Westminster we
:52:56. > :53:01.are just as excited to see the first manifesto pledges picking their way
:53:02. > :53:05.through after a long, wet winter. Labour said it would put its job
:53:06. > :53:09.guaranteed to the manifesto for the 2015 election. But does that really
:53:10. > :53:12.have the same impact it once did? Here is a reminder of some of the
:53:13. > :53:16.more memorable, or maybe not, manifesto launches. Everything was
:53:17. > :53:24.being done to smooth out any wrinkles along the way.
:53:25. > :53:33.# These words are my own! Margaret Thatcher was all set to
:53:34. > :53:36.make up ground. The Conservative manifesto, completed ten days ago,
:53:37. > :53:45.arrived at Central office just as she did. Then, jackets off for the
:53:46. > :53:49.first conference. The party is keener than ever to
:53:50. > :53:53.present a united front. At last, they believe there is a chance of
:53:54. > :54:03.beating Margaret Thatcher in the next general election.
:54:04. > :54:17.# These words are my own... Someone asked, what business is
:54:18. > :54:20.Labour in, past or future? Our answer is as clear as the question
:54:21. > :54:31.was then, we are in the future business.
:54:32. > :54:35.We say we are all in this together. So, come with others and we will
:54:36. > :54:52.build a better country together. And I'm sure our guests have got
:54:53. > :54:55.piles of previous manifestoes stacked up in their bedrooms. Let's
:54:56. > :54:59.start with Owen Smith. Would you describe the jobs guarantee that has
:55:00. > :55:05.been outlined today has a cast-iron manifesto commitment? Yes, very
:55:06. > :55:09.straightforward. What happens if you are in coalition, it stays come what
:55:10. > :55:13.May? I think it would be one of the key priorities for a Labour
:55:14. > :55:16.government. Therefore, I would be absolutely flabbergasted if a Labour
:55:17. > :55:19.government, even if we were in coalition, it stays come what May? I
:55:20. > :55:21.think it would be one of the key priorities for a Labour government.
:55:22. > :55:23.Therefore, I would be absolutely flabbergasted if a Labour
:55:24. > :55:26.government, even if we weren't coalition, and I don't anticipate we
:55:27. > :55:31.will be, would not comment that pledge. A bit like tuition fees? You
:55:32. > :55:35.said it was a red line? Everybody is about to get a tax cut, well, not
:55:36. > :55:40.everybody, most people in the country and work going to get a tax
:55:41. > :55:44.cut and that is because the main commitment in the Lib Dem manifesto.
:55:45. > :55:49.Why should anybody believe anything you say? I've told you, it was a
:55:50. > :55:54.policy, implement it in full. That might be by default, rather than
:55:55. > :55:59.design. It is because we got into government. Are manifesto is worth
:56:00. > :56:03.the paper they are written on? I looked back on our manifesto, quite
:56:04. > :56:08.a lot of things, on the economy, taking people out of tax, raising
:56:09. > :56:16.personal allowances. That was the Lib Dem policy, not in the
:56:17. > :56:20.manifesto? Taking out a Labour's increased employers national
:56:21. > :56:24.insurance, on health, ending mixed sex wards, reducing hospital
:56:25. > :56:30.infections, on education I think we have gone even beyond our manifesto
:56:31. > :56:36.Thomases. Of course, when you get into coalition, the water does get
:56:37. > :56:39.muddied. -- promises. That has a problem, because you don't know
:56:40. > :56:46.which are going to be kept. Do you think there should be I manifesto
:56:47. > :56:51.written, so you say, these are the red lines, we will not negotiate on
:56:52. > :56:54.that, then the public knows? I would advise against red lines, because if
:56:55. > :56:58.there is likely to be another coalition, it will be a process of
:56:59. > :57:04.negotiation and I think that the parties will want to get the maximum
:57:05. > :57:09.of their manifesto into a coalition agreement. And they don't want to be
:57:10. > :57:17.hampered, I don't think, by too many red lines. I think there will be
:57:18. > :57:21.some red lines. But there will have to be some negotiation, and there
:57:22. > :57:24.are Tory MPs that come on this programme and say, it's the Lib Dems
:57:25. > :57:29.fault we couldn't put all policies into practice, do you agree with
:57:30. > :57:33.that? It's a bit simplistic. If the electorate have not given one party
:57:34. > :57:37.an overall majority, either a minority government or a coalition,
:57:38. > :57:43.if it's a coalition, there has to be a process of negotiation and neither
:57:44. > :57:47.side will get everything they want. I don't think we should let the fact
:57:48. > :57:50.that we've had a coalition, and the Lib Dems going back on a core
:57:51. > :57:53.promise on their manifesto, let us believe that in future manifestoes
:57:54. > :57:59.would be worth the paper they are written on. Normally, in the normal
:58:00. > :58:02.run of politics since we have had manifestoes, most parties want to
:58:03. > :58:05.stick to what their promise and most parties recognise if you go back on
:58:06. > :58:08.promises that you make to the electorate in the manifesto you are
:58:09. > :58:12.not going to last very long. I suspect that, in some respects, the
:58:13. > :58:17.fact the Lib Dems will suffer as a result of their manifesto pledge is
:58:18. > :58:21.a measure of how important they are. We'll have to leave it there. Before
:58:22. > :58:25.we go, time for the answer to the quiz. Can you remember? Nick Clegg
:58:26. > :58:32.gave us a list of all the things he loves about Britain. Which one did
:58:33. > :58:37.he not say? I think it was the Antiques Roadshow. I think you are
:58:38. > :58:43.right, I remember the other three. He might like the Antiques
:58:44. > :58:50.Roadshow... He might do. Before Owen managed to get in with a date. Ed
:58:51. > :58:53.Miliband really likes it! Thank you to all of our guests, the one
:58:54. > :58:56.o'clock News is starting on BBC One now.