:00:38. > :00:42.Afternoon, folks. Welcome to the Daily Politics.
:00:43. > :00:46.The Chancellor must have enjoyed his breakfast this morning. Most of
:00:47. > :00:49.today's front pages seem to have broadly welcomed his Budget. That
:00:50. > :00:55.hasn't happened before! So what have we learned? Well, we'll get a new
:00:56. > :00:58.pound coin. Very nice it is, too. A bit retro. But most radically, the
:00:59. > :01:01.pensions industry will undergo its biggest reform for a generation.
:01:02. > :01:05.There was good news for savers and a penny off a pint. That will always
:01:06. > :01:08.get a cheer. George Osborne was keen to stress that he was rebuilding
:01:09. > :01:11.Britain's economy. We're growing faster than Germany, faster than
:01:12. > :01:14.Japan, faster than the US, he told us. But household wealth's not
:01:15. > :01:20.expected to return to pre-crisis levels for another three years.
:01:21. > :01:25.Labour, though, weren't so impressed. Not surprisingly. In
:01:26. > :01:28.interviews this morning, Ed Balls accused the Chancellor of gambling
:01:29. > :01:31.with people's cash and doing nothing for the young, the poor or the
:01:32. > :01:35.jobless. We'll have all the analysis.
:01:36. > :01:38.And we'll be hearing about the rock'n'roll lifestyle of
:01:39. > :01:47.Parliament's only rock band. Have you ever trashed hotel room? I
:01:48. > :02:05.rearranged the towels. Can you imagine those two!
:02:06. > :02:09.MPs used to trash hotel rooms, but now they just put them on expensive
:02:10. > :02:12.will stop -- expenses. All that in the next hour. And with us for
:02:13. > :02:15.today's programme, a panel of the very best. Economic Secretary to the
:02:16. > :02:18.Treasury, Nicky Morgan. Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Chris
:02:19. > :02:21.Leslie. And Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesman Ian Swales.
:02:22. > :02:24.Treasury related people. Welcome to you all. Now without further ado,
:02:25. > :02:27.let's crack on with yesterday's Budget. George Osborne and his
:02:28. > :02:30.shadow were doing the breakfast rounds this morning. Let's hear
:02:31. > :02:34.first what the Chancellor had to say.
:02:35. > :02:39.At the heart of the budget is a long-term economic plan to make sure
:02:40. > :02:42.this country is investing in the future and creating jobs for the
:02:43. > :02:49.people you are asking about. And here I am on a building site in
:02:50. > :02:56.Nuneaton. Barratt homes are going to be creating 3000 jobs. There are
:02:57. > :03:00.people being employed on this site who didn't have work before. There
:03:01. > :03:05.are apprentices. That is what this is all about. I want to help people
:03:06. > :03:09.who have saved hard, and are also want help people get into work so
:03:10. > :03:13.that they can provide for their family and have economic security.
:03:14. > :03:18.The good news for Britain is that things are getting better, but they
:03:19. > :03:22.are warning that the job is done. He needed a big picture up behind
:03:23. > :03:27.him! And now let's hear from his shadow.
:03:28. > :03:29.If George Osborne was being sensible and wise and long-term, he would
:03:30. > :03:32.have done something about the cost of living crisis which is hitting
:03:33. > :03:37.working people, people who can't afford to save, whose wages are not
:03:38. > :03:44.rising while prices go up and up. He had stunned nothing to help that or
:03:45. > :03:48.youth jobs or build affordable homes. What they did do is cut tax
:03:49. > :03:53.on bingo, took a penny off a pint of beer. You have to drink 100 pints of
:03:54. > :03:57.beer to save the pound! And an advert says we have done things to
:03:58. > :04:03.help working people with the kind of things they enjoy. It was so
:04:04. > :04:09.patronising. I can't leave the Chancellor. Did he really signed
:04:10. > :04:19.this advert off? What was the best bit of the budget
:04:20. > :04:24.for you, Chris Leslie? Some of the U-turns were quite welcome, such as
:04:25. > :04:28.the carbon floor price, which was essentially a tax the Chancellor
:04:29. > :04:31.introduced, and has reined back on. But it is the missed opportunities,
:04:32. > :04:35.as Ed Balls were saying, in terms of cost of living pressures. You would
:04:36. > :04:40.have thought that that would feature in the budget, but in the 120 pages
:04:41. > :04:46.of the document, it didn't even get mentioned once. And what we need to
:04:47. > :04:48.get this recovery through is to make sure it benefits the vast majority
:04:49. > :04:53.of people and not just the wealthiest few at the top, and that
:04:54. > :04:56.sense that the Government and the Chancellor understands that was
:04:57. > :05:00.blown out of the water when in particular Grant Shapps decided to
:05:01. > :05:04.patronise people with his view about what work you people really want. We
:05:05. > :05:09.will come onto that and the detail of cost of living issues. In terms
:05:10. > :05:17.of first impressions, what was the most important bit for you? For me
:05:18. > :05:19.and my constituents, another rise in the personal tax allowance, the
:05:20. > :05:24.number one Liberal Democrat policy from the last election. We have
:05:25. > :05:30.delivered on the ?10,000 threshold we promised, and we have another
:05:31. > :05:33.?500 coming through this Budget. That helps 42,000 people in my
:05:34. > :05:38.constituency who are basic rate taxpayers who will have more money.
:05:39. > :05:41.We keep hearing from Labour talk of what is happening to wages, but of
:05:42. > :05:47.course, if you take less tax off people, they have more money in
:05:48. > :05:50.their hand, and the real term increases the people in minimum wage
:05:51. > :06:03.through the tax cut will stop what about you, Nicky? We are proud to
:06:04. > :06:07.have brought certain policies in. The pension bond, we recognise that
:06:08. > :06:11.interest rates have been low which is great for people with mortgages,
:06:12. > :06:15.but people living on an income for their savings have told us that has
:06:16. > :06:21.been difficult. So having the bond so that people can get higher rates
:06:22. > :06:25.of interest is very important. And in general, the reforms to pensions
:06:26. > :06:30.that we saw, as well. It has been welcomed in many of the newspapers.
:06:31. > :06:33.What you could say when you look at the Budget and the proposals and you
:06:34. > :06:37.go through some of the policies that have been announced, in a way, you
:06:38. > :06:43.targeted a group in society, pensioners, when that is the only
:06:44. > :06:48.group in society whose wages have gone up over the last five years
:06:49. > :06:53.compared to every other group. We help them more than young people? We
:06:54. > :06:58.have helped young people in previous Budgets. I understand the programme
:06:59. > :07:03.is looking today at yesterday's announcements. But on Tuesday we
:07:04. > :07:06.talked about childcare. We also previously talked about the use
:07:07. > :07:10.contract, the National employer contribution break for employing
:07:11. > :07:15.people under the age of 21. So it is right that we should listen, and we
:07:16. > :07:21.recognise that there are things we can do to help this group. The core
:07:22. > :07:25.vote. It is not just about the core vote. We have done things in
:07:26. > :07:36.previous statements. New The reform of pensions was at the
:07:37. > :07:39.centrepiece of yesterday's Budget, although as the Chancellor spoke,
:07:40. > :07:44.Westminster hacks and MPs alike were quickly looking up the word annuity
:07:45. > :07:48.on their search engines. So what are the reforms? Well, the requirement
:07:49. > :07:54.to buy an annuity has ended, removing tax restrictions on pension
:07:55. > :07:58.pots. The increase in total pension savings people can take as a lump
:07:59. > :08:02.sum has been upped to ?30,000. Taxable withdrawls from pension pots
:08:03. > :08:09.will be charged at normal income tax rates.
:08:10. > :08:14.And the Chancellor has also created a new Pensioner Bond for the
:08:15. > :08:23.over-65s, which they tell us will be offering "market-leading rates".
:08:24. > :08:26.Well, they will be offering 4% on a three-year bond, which is higher
:08:27. > :08:30.than market rates at the moment. All of that took the City by suprise,
:08:31. > :08:36.with ?5 billion wiped off the value of the five biggest annuity
:08:37. > :08:39.providers. Though not many were shedding tears, I can tell you. We
:08:40. > :08:42.can speak now to the Telegraph's economics commentator, Liam
:08:43. > :08:48.Halligan. Does it matter that these pension
:08:49. > :08:57.companies have taken a thumping? I don't think it does. They are
:08:58. > :09:00.diversifying companies. They have been in the annuity market for quite
:09:01. > :09:05.a few years which has been on its knees for a few years, not least to
:09:06. > :09:12.quantitative easing and related low interest rates. In real terms,
:09:13. > :09:18.negative real interest rates because of inflation. So we have already had
:09:19. > :09:21.five or six years of pensions being forced to take annuities and being
:09:22. > :09:26.locked into a lower annual income for the rest of their lives. These
:09:27. > :09:34.reforms won't help them, and there are hundreds of thousands of them.
:09:35. > :09:40.But as far as Aviva and LNG are concerned, it doesn't matter. You
:09:41. > :09:46.don't have to take an annuity in America, and they still have these
:09:47. > :09:49.companies. There will be a huge lobby to change these reforms as
:09:50. > :09:53.they go through Parliament from the pension industry, but if they do go
:09:54. > :09:59.through as they are, what will be the consequences for the pensions
:10:00. > :10:10.business? I think you will obviously get a lot more competition in the
:10:11. > :10:17.annuity market, and you will get people annuitising later. This is
:10:18. > :10:23.typical of Mr Osborne, targeting the older voter, people 50 plus with
:10:24. > :10:29.money locked in a pension but determined not to pay the 55p tax
:10:30. > :10:34.rate. But now they can take lump sums up the basic rate of income
:10:35. > :10:38.tax. It is also a concern that while the Treasury thinks it is being very
:10:39. > :10:44.clever with this, and it is in some senses, if pensions are available to
:10:45. > :10:48.tax now, which they will be to a degree under these measures, which
:10:49. > :10:53.is why the Chancellor's pencilling in hundreds of millions of pounds
:10:54. > :10:59.from these measures on the revenue envelope, that money won't of course
:11:00. > :11:04.be available to tax later. But later is well beyond the Chancellor's
:11:05. > :11:10.political horizon. He will be either in Number ten then or retired in
:11:11. > :11:20.industry. He will be long gone from both. It is up to 2030. Are we
:11:21. > :11:24.seeing you tonight on This Week? Apparently, yes. The thought police
:11:25. > :11:30.have got their ducks in a row, to mix metaphors. I am gracing your
:11:31. > :11:33.screen with a take on Ukraine and Russia. A double whammy! I didn't
:11:34. > :11:38.know the thought police had any ducks. Anyway. Joining us now from
:11:39. > :11:47.Salford is Paul Lewis from BBC Radio 4's Money Box. He is the world's
:11:48. > :11:53.living expert on these things. Have we just seen in effect the death of
:11:54. > :11:58.the annuity business? I don't think we have seen its death, but I think
:11:59. > :12:04.it will diminish. In America, it is not compulsory, and only 10% of
:12:05. > :12:07.people purchase an annuity. But I am sure that the industry will meet as
:12:08. > :12:12.we speak to find other ways of taking money off people. Don't
:12:13. > :12:15.forget that if you don't buy an annuity, what you do with the
:12:16. > :12:20.money? You probably keep it invested and draw bits out of it as you see
:12:21. > :12:24.fit. It is called drawdown, and a lot of people do that anyway if they
:12:25. > :12:28.have a big pension pot. Now that will be extended to people who have
:12:29. > :12:33.a smaller pension pot, and it can be quite an expensive business. Other
:12:34. > :12:38.people may just take the whole lot out. The first 25% will be tax-free,
:12:39. > :12:43.and after that, they have to pay income tax on the other 75%, so that
:12:44. > :12:50.will be quite a drain on it, but they could go on world cruise. And
:12:51. > :12:55.as the price of shares of pension companies for, probably the shares
:12:56. > :13:02.of cruise liners go through the roof! Given that we have this choice
:13:03. > :13:06.now, a choice that people 50 plus will be able to start thinking
:13:07. > :13:09.about, and it doesn't affect pensioners because they are already
:13:10. > :13:16.locked in, but why would you now take out an annuity? Because it is a
:13:17. > :13:21.guarantee. It says, however long you live, we will give you this much per
:13:22. > :13:26.year. It may not be very much, but it is guaranteed. If you are very
:13:27. > :13:30.prudent, and you put your pension pot in an Isa investment, and you
:13:31. > :13:36.think, I will live until an 85, I need this income, so I will take it
:13:37. > :13:41.out each year and hope it grows, when it is all gone at 85 and you
:13:42. > :13:46.carry on living, by the time you are 95 or 100, you may well find you
:13:47. > :13:49.have run out of money. You have been prudent or make sensible choices,
:13:50. > :13:54.but unless we all plan to live to 120, we will run out of money. Yes.
:13:55. > :14:00.But we got a letter from somebody who said that they have a pension
:14:01. > :14:04.pot of ?400,000, that is a lot of money, much bigger than the average
:14:05. > :14:12.pension pot. And they went for an annuity. It gave them ?12,000 per
:14:13. > :14:23.year. Why would you go for that? Because it is guaranteed. Peanut!
:14:24. > :14:31.That sounds to be index-linked. It may seem peanuts to you, but to a
:14:32. > :14:38.lot of people... That is not the issue. It seems peanuts if you have
:14:39. > :14:42.saved hard all your life document out ?400,000, that is what I'm
:14:43. > :14:47.saying. ?12,000 a year for many pensioners would seem a lot of
:14:48. > :14:51.money, but that is not my point. The point is right, that you get a very
:14:52. > :14:56.small proportion of it every year, because we are living longer, and
:14:57. > :15:02.insurance companies are profitable. If you had ?40,000, it would be
:15:03. > :15:05.?1200 per year, and it makes you realise what the index-linked state
:15:06. > :15:13.pension of seven or ?8,000 per year is worth. If you are annuitising
:15:14. > :15:16.that, it is worth ?250,000. So it is difficult to have enough, but if you
:15:17. > :15:22.had that and you started taking money out of it and you did live
:15:23. > :15:30.until you are 85 you took more than that ?12,000 index-linked each year.
:15:31. > :15:35.Stick with us because we're going to talk to the politicians so we'll
:15:36. > :15:38.need you to correct them! Did we mean to destroy the pension
:15:39. > :15:45.companies? That's not what we've done. They just lost 5 billion! It
:15:46. > :15:51.was a surprise and we managed to get the whole policy a surprise. People
:15:52. > :15:57.hadn't expected it. I think Ed Balls has welcomed it this morning and has
:15:58. > :16:01.said it was... Has he welcomed it? We want more flexible to a pension
:16:02. > :16:07.fund annuities and we've got to reform these ancient instruments. We
:16:08. > :16:12.would have personally like to some action on the charges, the fees and
:16:13. > :16:18.charges that the companies put in place. But are you in favour of this
:16:19. > :16:22.new freedom pensioners will have? In the proviso that we've got
:16:23. > :16:27.protection for pensioners. Paul was talking about some of this. We have
:16:28. > :16:31.actuaries, these individuals in the pension companies who make an
:16:32. > :16:35.estimate about your longevity and think about your ability to get a
:16:36. > :16:38.steady amount of income. Now if we're not doing that, everybody is
:16:39. > :16:44.going to have to individually make an estimate about their life span.
:16:45. > :16:55.We've got to make sure people get proper ad twice about this. --
:16:56. > :17:00.proper advice. People will get that. In general, are you in favour of
:17:01. > :17:05.this? Are you going to vote for this? I've got to be convinced that
:17:06. > :17:10.there's enough protection and advice for people making very big decisions
:17:11. > :17:15.about a possible third of their life and their income. Forgive me my
:17:16. > :17:18.cynicism - I know you'll be surprised that I have a slight
:17:19. > :17:24.scepticism - but as the Chancellor doing this for the right reasons? He
:17:25. > :17:28.happens to be getting a lot of taxes from these pensioners early on.
:17:29. > :17:36.Perhaps it's because he's got a big black hole. What hole is this? You
:17:37. > :17:44.left a big black hole! I'm a little bit sceptical. Have the Lib Dems
:17:45. > :17:48.gone along with this? Absolutely. Professor Steve Webb is one of those
:17:49. > :17:51.rare people, a minister and a Lib Dem who absolutely knows his brief.
:17:52. > :17:58.He's caused a revolution in pensions. He bores for Britain on
:17:59. > :18:03.pensions! He has done a terrific job on this. One of the things that has
:18:04. > :18:07.not been reported well is the detail of the red book does have
:18:08. > :18:14.safeguards. You will not be able to draw all your pension pots out and
:18:15. > :18:16.blow it and binge it. You will need certain minimum income levels. The
:18:17. > :18:23.government actuary is still going to restrict the amount you can take
:18:24. > :18:31.out. Are they going to give actuarial advice? Free, impartial,
:18:32. > :18:34.face-to-face advice. It has to be actuarial. You don't just want that
:18:35. > :18:44.to aerial advice but pension and vice. Do you see my point about the
:18:45. > :18:49.life span people will have? Last night, we had a Labour adviser
:18:50. > :18:53.saying "we, as a party, don't trust people to spend their money" . Now
:18:54. > :18:57.you're saying you don't trust people to know that the advice is good for
:18:58. > :19:04.them. Paul Lewis made a very good point which is that annuities are
:19:05. > :19:08.insurance policy. People say that if they die at 69 they will lose all
:19:09. > :19:13.the money. They are not really losing it. The people who lived to
:19:14. > :19:17.90 are getting that money. People will need to look more closely at
:19:18. > :19:22.the issue of insurance if they keep their money in their own hands. When
:19:23. > :19:28.you look at what the Tories have done by stealth, and out of the
:19:29. > :19:32.blue, to take ?5 billion off the pension companies at a stroke, in
:19:33. > :19:39.your wildest dreams you couldn't do that to the energy companies! Nobody
:19:40. > :19:43.wants to, I think, make policy which has a volatile and disruptive effect
:19:44. > :19:47.in that way. I think what you have to do is enter into these reforms
:19:48. > :19:52.with your eyes open and make sure that if you are making changes, big
:19:53. > :19:56.changes affecting people's income over a long period, you're doing it
:19:57. > :20:00.with the right reasons - so it's not just about short-term tax grabs -
:20:01. > :20:06.and with protections for the public. Those are our concerns. But here's
:20:07. > :20:10.the point which I don't think has been widely grassed. If, as a result
:20:11. > :20:16.of saying that annuities are no longer going to be compulsory,
:20:17. > :20:21.pension companies lose a ?5 billion on their value, that can only show
:20:22. > :20:27.that they were taking economic rents that they didn't deserve. I think a
:20:28. > :20:31.lot of people have been ripped off. But reforming annuities is a really
:20:32. > :20:35.big step. I think it's important for us as an opposition to ask these
:20:36. > :20:40.questions, not just take it at face value because we know they've got
:20:41. > :20:45.form. Why didn't you do it? When we were in power annuity levels were a
:20:46. > :20:50.lot higher. They've changed quite a lot. The banking crisis changed
:20:51. > :20:57.everything. Let's be honest about the politics of this. This is a
:20:58. > :21:02.burning arrow fired from the Tories straight to the heart of UKIP.
:21:03. > :21:09.That's the politics of it. I can honestly tell you that UKIP is not a
:21:10. > :21:13.part of the budget making process. When I dined with a cabinet minister
:21:14. > :21:18.last night, he said that was exactly what it was designed to do. Was he
:21:19. > :21:23.not being honest? I don't know who you were speaking to. Of course you
:21:24. > :21:30.don't and you wouldn't want me to break a confidence if I dined with
:21:31. > :21:38.you. But he was quite explicit about this - that you are losing
:21:39. > :21:42.50-year-old males and over to UKIP. He described them as grumpy old men
:21:43. > :21:48.and this is designed to get them back. Any Chancellor looks at
:21:49. > :21:51.different people and what they are asking for. On Tuesday we had
:21:52. > :21:57.childcare announcements. We've had pension reform. We've previously
:21:58. > :22:03.been looking at businesses. Paul, any card you'd like to mark there?
:22:04. > :22:06.Correct them where they were wrong? Ian Swales wasn't correct to say you
:22:07. > :22:11.won't be able to take it all out. You will from next April. From March
:22:12. > :22:15.the 27th of their will be still some restrictions but far fewer than
:22:16. > :22:20.now. But from next April, it will be complete open house. You can do what
:22:21. > :22:23.you like. The government has said everyone will have a legal right to
:22:24. > :22:27.face-to-face advice. What isn't clear is how they will get that.
:22:28. > :22:32.Some of the pension schemes will have to offer it but people who look
:22:33. > :22:35.after their own pension, the voluntary sector might provide it.
:22:36. > :22:37.It will be a problem to get good face-to-face advice to help people
:22:38. > :22:41.with those difficult decisions about how much they should take out of
:22:42. > :22:45.their fund and cutting down on the charges that will be made. Sounds
:22:46. > :22:53.like it will keep you in a job, Paul! Thanks for joining us and
:22:54. > :22:55.keeping us straight on the matter. So, what other headlines did the
:22:56. > :22:58.Chancellor make? As predicted widely, the personal allowance
:22:59. > :23:02.threshold will rise to ?10,500. The threshold for the 40p income tax
:23:03. > :23:10.band is to rise from ?41,450 to ?41,865 next month and by a further
:23:11. > :23:17.1% to ?42,285 next year. The Chancellor took a penny off a pint
:23:18. > :23:21.and he froze duty on Scotch whisky. Always popular! He's also chopped
:23:22. > :23:25.the tax rate for bingo halls from 20% to just 10%. And conscientious
:23:26. > :23:36.savers can now put up to ?15,000 into their individual savings
:23:37. > :23:41.accounts tax free! Nicky Morgan, what did you do to tackle Labour's
:23:42. > :23:44.cost of living crisis? Raising the personal allowance is the biggest
:23:45. > :23:48.thing we can do to help families and people working hard to keep more of
:23:49. > :23:51.their own money. We've taken action on fuel duty. It was confirmed
:23:52. > :23:56.yesterday that the planned rise for September is not going to go ahead.
:23:57. > :23:59.On Tuesday we had a very important childcare announcements so there are
:24:00. > :24:02.lots of things that we are doing. But I'm not going to say the last
:24:03. > :24:08.couple of years haven't been very tough households. We recognise they
:24:09. > :24:12.have been. That was recognised yesterday in the budget. We said the
:24:13. > :24:16.job isn't done yet but we can see the momentum building. The recovery
:24:17. > :24:21.is there and it's important we stay on the current path to build that
:24:22. > :24:25.recovery. And it's who it actually benefits. Real wages have been
:24:26. > :24:30.dropping consistently since 2010, the longest period of falls since at
:24:31. > :24:34.least 1964, under both your governments. Real wages started to
:24:35. > :24:40.fall before that in the financial crisis. They did but they have had
:24:41. > :24:45.now the longest period of falls. Real wages have fallen by 2.2%
:24:46. > :24:50.annually since 2010 when you came into power. I'm not saying people
:24:51. > :24:55.haven't had it very tough. As a result of the recession that was
:24:56. > :25:01.left behind, the big black hole, and we've had external shocks like the
:25:02. > :25:04.eurozone crisis, it has taken time to build confidence. The employment
:25:05. > :25:08.figures yesterday were very good news and we're looking at how we can
:25:09. > :25:13.help with the personal allowance, childcare, free school meals,
:25:14. > :25:16.council tax, fuel duty. My constituent tell me these things are
:25:17. > :25:20.making a difference to the money they have in their pocket. What do
:25:21. > :25:25.you say to the charge that it's too little, too late? We had to get in
:25:26. > :25:28.and sort out the problems we had before. We can only do these things
:25:29. > :25:32.because of the long-term economic plan we have in place to build the
:25:33. > :25:37.recovery. The largest fall in real wage growth amongst the G7. What are
:25:38. > :25:43.you doing worse than every body else? We were in a worse financial
:25:44. > :25:45.position. The last government crashed the car. The Chancellor
:25:46. > :25:50.brought about not fixing the roof while the sun was shining. The bail
:25:51. > :25:52.out meant that because we'd been consistently spending so many years
:25:53. > :25:58.more than we bring in in taxes, there wasn't the money to develop
:25:59. > :26:03.banks so it's hit everybody. Every household is ?3000 worse off as a
:26:04. > :26:07.result of Labour's recession. Well, they've shot sure Fox, stolen your
:26:08. > :26:12.thunder. There were measures to deal with cost of living issues and at
:26:13. > :26:16.some point this year, wages will go ahead of prices and that is going to
:26:17. > :26:20.completely dampen your cost of living crisis that you keep accusing
:26:21. > :26:24.the government of. Let's hope that eventually earnings to surpass the
:26:25. > :26:29.level of prices because we have had such an unprecedented period of the
:26:30. > :26:33.pound in people's pocket, no matter what new shape it will be,
:26:34. > :26:39.diminishing in value and in the amount it can purchase. The
:26:40. > :26:43.criticism that we have of the budget is almost conspicuous by its
:26:44. > :26:46.absence. There weren't the significant changes that we need to
:26:47. > :26:51.help people with the cost of living crisis, the now well-known cost of
:26:52. > :26:55.living crisis. There were the childcare policies. Which won't come
:26:56. > :26:59.in until autumn 2015. We could have had help now, particularly if we'd
:27:00. > :27:03.taken some of the money that should be collected from the bank levy and
:27:04. > :27:08.taken it into childcare. There is a difference. They like to throw a bit
:27:09. > :27:13.of dust in this very clear policy. We could take ?800 million from the
:27:14. > :27:18.bank levy which should have been collected properly and hasn't been,
:27:19. > :27:24.and put it into increasing childcare hours for three and four-year-olds.
:27:25. > :27:27.That would help with parents getting part-time work and training and that
:27:28. > :27:31.isn't happening. They've taken 15 billion from families with children.
:27:32. > :27:35.We don't hear about the child benefit changes and tax credit cuts.
:27:36. > :27:40.They are not going to give anything back until the next Parliament. 85%
:27:41. > :27:48.of people who receive child benefit are still doing so. The issue is...
:27:49. > :27:52.Actually, it's going to be raised. But the issue with the opposition's
:27:53. > :27:56.childcare policy, not least about the funding, is also about the fact
:27:57. > :27:59.that we want a simple, flexible scheme so that parents are able to
:28:00. > :28:02.choose the right childcare. If you say you have to have a certain
:28:03. > :28:09.number of hours a week, that doesn't suit everybody. Let's have a look,
:28:10. > :28:13.though, at the type of recovery, as Labour always call it, and the
:28:14. > :28:17.rebalancing of the economy. Ian Swales, do you think it has been
:28:18. > :28:21.rebalanced enough or do you think there is still too much focus, as
:28:22. > :28:27.Vince Cable often warns everybody, about consumer spending, which is
:28:28. > :28:30.up? Since last year the property market is improving but is not a
:28:31. > :28:36.pre-crash levels, apart from in London. Do you fit we're moving that
:28:37. > :28:42.are exactly the same position as we were pre-crash? No, I don't. I think
:28:43. > :28:45.the rebalancing is taking place. We can see it. There was lots of
:28:46. > :28:50.rebalancing that needed doing when Labour left office, one of which was
:28:51. > :28:54.between financial services and manufacturing. There were lots of
:28:55. > :28:58.measures yesterday about manufacturing, around capital
:28:59. > :29:01.finances and energy costs, particularly the type of area I
:29:02. > :29:05.represent the north-east. These are the kind of things we need to be
:29:06. > :29:12.doing. We need to rebalance from north to south and that job has in
:29:13. > :29:14.no way been done yet. Do you accept there is a big divide between North
:29:15. > :29:19.and South and even within that huge regional differences? You say there
:29:20. > :29:26.has been a focus on manufacturing. What level is it at paired to
:29:27. > :29:32.pre-crash? It's up. No, it's down from pre-crash but it's up since
:29:33. > :29:37.2010. 9% down. From a low bar it is improving but is still way below
:29:38. > :29:41.pre-crash levels and we are in 2014. But the trade figures were very
:29:42. > :29:46.disappointing just over a week ago. Where is this rebalancing of the
:29:47. > :29:50.economy? I represent a constituency in the north-east which has a net
:29:51. > :29:54.positive trade balance. The north-east Chamber of Commerce
:29:55. > :30:00.welcomed the budget, saying it had prospects for growth. If you look
:30:01. > :30:03.around this country, for example on house prices, nobody in my
:30:04. > :30:09.constituency would recognise the worries about the housing bubble. It
:30:10. > :30:14.doesn't exist. Nicky Morgan, household gross debt to income at
:30:15. > :30:20.its peak in 2007-8 and the prediction is that it's going to be
:30:21. > :30:25.at similar levels by 2018-19. That's household gross debt to income. It's
:30:26. > :30:30.going to be as high, so it's predicted, by 2018-19, and by then
:30:31. > :30:37.interest rates will probably have gone up by about 3%. You need to
:30:38. > :30:40.look at what the debt is. It's about building a culture of saving. We
:30:41. > :30:46.need households and people to do more of that. The OBR forecast shows
:30:47. > :30:54.the savings rate going from 7% to just over 3%. People are saving and
:30:55. > :30:59.we'd like to see them doing more. Steve White according to OBR
:31:00. > :31:05.forecast made after you'd may be changes, the savings forecast shows
:31:06. > :31:09.it fallen by 15%. That's why the announcements were about helping
:31:10. > :31:13.people to do more. You know how it works. The OBR makes these forecasts
:31:14. > :31:19.after you've told them what you're going to do. The savings
:31:20. > :31:23.announcements that we made yesterday one thing but people 's confidence
:31:24. > :31:35.that they have taken action to tackle their debt.
:31:36. > :31:41.Let's have a look at this poster that appeared earlier today. " to
:31:42. > :31:48.help hard-working people do more of the things they enjoy. ".
:31:49. > :32:01.The Budget was about a lot more than this. But would you have referred to
:32:02. > :32:06.working people as "they" ? I wouldn't have put that, but it was
:32:07. > :32:10.only a part of the Budget, and there were plenty more parts of the
:32:11. > :32:13.Budget. She is very loyal to Grant Shapps is, but it was very
:32:14. > :32:19.patronising, this notion that you patch working people on the head.
:32:20. > :32:22.The government is so out of touch with the struggle that people are
:32:23. > :32:27.having, the difficulties to make ends meet. We end up with an economy
:32:28. > :32:35.that is Carragher fired by food banks and zero hours culture. --
:32:36. > :32:41.characterised by food banks. It is patronising. I regard myself as part
:32:42. > :32:49.of the community I represent. It is not "they", we are all in it
:32:50. > :32:54.together. A couple of policies were very popular yesterday. That this is
:32:55. > :33:00.the one that Grant Shapps told everyone to tweet. There was a whole
:33:01. > :33:07.list of things that we told everyone to tweet. It is because Tories don't
:33:08. > :33:16.drink beer or play bingo, isn't it? That is not true. When we last at a
:33:17. > :33:22.bingo hall? The point is, yesterday's Budget was to draw
:33:23. > :33:28.attention to a couple of key policies, and that is what Labour
:33:29. > :33:33.can't get past. Screwed up by your party's propaganda division. The
:33:34. > :33:42.reaction from here is typical. The Budget response speech didn't
:33:43. > :33:45.respond to the Budget. There was no action to deal with the pressures
:33:46. > :33:49.people are facing, and the telling thing was the way in which you
:33:50. > :33:53.character rise working people, because you don't understand the
:33:54. > :33:58.pressures that people are facing. That's what it told, it told a story
:33:59. > :34:12.about you. What else to "they" like? It is "we", and we have a lot
:34:13. > :34:17.of issues that we all face together. Will you tell Grant Shapps that? He
:34:18. > :34:23.doesn't understand it. I don't think they will be going for a beer. Maybe
:34:24. > :34:33.a long walk off a short pier. And only one will return. Now, the
:34:34. > :34:36.economy. George Osborne said yesterday that Britain was enjoying
:34:37. > :34:40.the fastest economic growth in the advanced world. He could hardly take
:34:41. > :34:43.the smile off his face as he said it. So let's take a quick look at
:34:44. > :34:47.the figures. According to the oh BR, the economy will grow this year at
:34:48. > :35:00.2.7%. It's expected to grow 2.3% in 2015. 2.6% in 2016. Steady at 2.6%
:35:01. > :35:05.in 2017. And 2.5% in 2018. Forget everything I just said that, because
:35:06. > :35:08.they have no idea how it is going to grow in 2018, this is just a
:35:09. > :35:11.complete the series! Public borrowing stands at ?108 billion
:35:12. > :35:20.this year, but it's expected to fall over the next five years to a ?5
:35:21. > :35:25.billion surplus in 2018/19. Supposed to be a surplus this year, but it is
:35:26. > :35:28.now been moved to then. But Britain's debt mountain will end up
:35:29. > :35:30.being smaller than previously thought, peaking at 78% of GDP in
:35:31. > :35:43.2015, 7% less than forecast. Why have you presided over the worst
:35:44. > :35:46.recovery of any major economy? Because we had the biggest recession
:35:47. > :35:53.in 100 years where are economy shrank by over 7%. But the sub-prime
:35:54. > :35:56.crisis started in America. Japan has had a huge banking crisis as well.
:35:57. > :36:02.Why have we performed worse than them? Because we had a big
:36:03. > :36:07.recession, the eurozone crisis, other emerging markets. So did the
:36:08. > :36:12.French and the Germans. Why was hours worse? Because of all of those
:36:13. > :36:16.factors and the need to get some structural things that we needed to
:36:17. > :36:21.get right in our economy to build our way through, dealing with public
:36:22. > :36:28.spending, dealing with things like the welfare bill that had been going
:36:29. > :36:33.up and up, and also about consumer confidence and business confidence,
:36:34. > :36:41.and that takes time. We can see that coming back now. But the whole
:36:42. > :36:50.purpose of this coalition has been bid to reduce the deficit. The
:36:51. > :36:56.deficit made by Labour, is the Tory mantra. So why are we still, two
:36:57. > :37:03.years from now, having the worst fiscal deficit of any Western
:37:04. > :37:06.economy? It is down by a third now and is forecast to be halved,
:37:07. > :37:14.because we have had this big recession to deal with. We have not
:37:15. > :37:20.had a worse recession than Ireland, we have not had a worse recession
:37:21. > :37:24.than Greece, which has lost 25% of its GDP. We have not had a worse
:37:25. > :37:28.recession than Portugal. We have not had a worse recession than Spain,
:37:29. > :37:32.which is an even bigger property boom than we have. Yet our fiscal
:37:33. > :37:38.deficit will remain bigger than all of these countries. There is also
:37:39. > :37:46.the fact that other things, public spending needed to come under
:37:47. > :37:51.control. Greece had massive public spending, too. They haven't got it
:37:52. > :37:58.under control. But their fiscal deficit in 2050 will be smaller than
:37:59. > :38:01.ours. We're bringing the spending under control. The welfare benefit
:38:02. > :38:05.had got out of control as far as taxpayers were concerned, all of
:38:06. > :38:10.those things have combined... And you still can't do better than the
:38:11. > :38:15.Greeks? We are well on course to halve the deficit by next year, and
:38:16. > :38:21.to have a small surplus by 2018. These things take time, and I think
:38:22. > :38:24.people respect that. Why did Ed Miliband not mention a single
:38:25. > :38:30.measure in the Budget yesterday in his response? I'm not sure that is
:38:31. > :38:36.quite true. Don't all gang up on him! That's my job. I think the
:38:37. > :38:43.measures that he mentioned were the effect on the public. What Budget
:38:44. > :38:47.measure did he comment on in his response to the Budget? We can go
:38:48. > :38:54.through his speech in great detail... Just give me one. You were
:38:55. > :38:58.there. You must have listened to it. I was actually giving my own
:38:59. > :39:03.reaction. Tell me one measure that he commented on four or against? I
:39:04. > :39:07.think he was making a point about the lack of measures in the Budget
:39:08. > :39:12.to deal with the cost of living pressures that people were facing.
:39:13. > :39:19.He could've written that weeks ago. He probably did. You are reacting to
:39:20. > :39:23.the Chancellor's speech. The normal convention is that a Minister makes
:39:24. > :39:29.a statement. There is an hour or two of notice to the opposition
:39:30. > :39:37.spokesman. Redacted in a certain way for market sensibility. But it is an
:39:38. > :39:41.important thing people need to know. As a leader of the opposition or any
:39:42. > :39:45.shadow Minister, you have to react to the context in which the speeches
:39:46. > :39:47.are given, and I can tell you something for the Op the more that
:39:48. > :39:56.we look at the Budget, the more obvious it is the measures that are
:39:57. > :40:02.conspicuous by their absence. That he didn't mention either! But since
:40:03. > :40:06.he didn't mention any measure, can you tell us today what was announced
:40:07. > :40:12.in the Budget that you will vote against? I think there was some good
:40:13. > :40:17.things in the Budget. There were a few U-turns. We haven't got the
:40:18. > :40:24.finance bill yet. So you don't know yet. We are in favour of a welfare
:40:25. > :40:29.cut, and we believe that your reckless spending in terms of... To
:40:30. > :40:35.go back to your question about recovery. Our biggest question was
:40:36. > :40:38.how unbalanced our economy was. Under the previous government,
:40:39. > :40:44.manufacturing went from 22% to 11% of the economy. We're having to
:40:45. > :40:48.recover from a low base. The alternative measures that have been
:40:49. > :40:52.suggested have even now started complaining about tax rises, 24 tax
:40:53. > :40:57.rises. I don't know which ones they particularly don't like. But they
:40:58. > :41:05.are complaining about both spending cuts and tax rises. It is always two
:41:06. > :41:08.government spokespeople. The personal allowance, you say we give
:41:09. > :41:15.a little with one hand and take off with the other, that is far greater.
:41:16. > :41:24.Council tax, fuel duty... You never mention VAT. People are ?891 worse
:41:25. > :41:29.off on average. There was a total lack of detail in Ed Miliband's
:41:30. > :41:37.response. But you published 24 tax rises that you claim have come...
:41:38. > :41:47.And we can't undo the maul. Will you reverse any of them? In 2015, the
:41:48. > :41:52.years the general election, we will look at them then. Say you cannot
:41:53. > :41:59.say that you will reverse any of them? I cannot promise to reverse
:42:00. > :42:04.any thing that we cannot afford. We think there are ways of funding the
:42:05. > :42:09.bedroom tax and its abolition. Stamp duty reserve tax the rich investment
:42:10. > :42:13.managers shouldn't be the priority that they are cutting in April. We
:42:14. > :42:18.think instead it is important to help people with the bedroom tax.
:42:19. > :42:23.Why did you not include the bedroom tax among the 24 tax rises? We
:42:24. > :42:29.could've done. We didn't include tax credits. If you want an even greater
:42:30. > :42:37.list... That is because you know it is not a tax. For a lot of people it
:42:38. > :42:41.is. So why didn't you include it? This is the main thing you have been
:42:42. > :42:46.campaigning for, to get rid of what you call the bedroom tax. Yet on a
:42:47. > :42:52.list of 24 tax rises, you don't include the biggest one that you
:42:53. > :42:59.have talked most about? Why? I am happy to call it 25 tax rises if you
:43:00. > :43:03.really want. Why has it taken new 24 hours to do that? If you want a
:43:04. > :43:15.compendium, it is a much bigger list. Why didn't you put the most
:43:16. > :43:19.important one? There are many of them. This is the one that you say
:43:20. > :43:24.you want to reverse. You have just said you can't reverse the other 24,
:43:25. > :43:29.yet the one that you can reverse is the one that you didn't include.
:43:30. > :43:32.Why? We needed to set out for people that there were a number of changes
:43:33. > :43:37.to their taxes, and we needed to put beyond doubt the fact that this is
:43:38. > :43:41.an approach that typically comes from the Chancellor. He will
:43:42. > :43:45.sprinkle around a few goodies, a change in your personal allowance,
:43:46. > :43:50.but the context is that people's taxes elsewhere have been going up.
:43:51. > :43:54.If you want me to call it 25 tax rises, I am happy to do that, but
:43:55. > :44:01.the point is it is unfair. We have run out of time. Policy has been
:44:02. > :44:09.made yet again on the Daily Politics as! You heard it here first. And now
:44:10. > :44:16.for something completely different. We're going to mark an anniversary
:44:17. > :44:20.of true national significance. No, not Andrew's birthday, but ten years
:44:21. > :44:22.since Parliament got its own rock band. They're called MP4, and they
:44:23. > :44:25.regularly bring their signature brand of dad rock to events at
:44:26. > :44:28.Westminster. Adam's been auditioning to be their roadie.
:44:29. > :44:32.It is Budget night, and boring politicians are talking about
:44:33. > :44:33.pensions stuff, but not here. This is MP4, the only parliamentary rock
:44:34. > :44:47.group in the entire world. # Keep on running. They let us into
:44:48. > :44:53.the sound check ahead of their gig to mark ten years on stage. On
:44:54. > :44:58.guitar, Labour's Kevin Brennan. On drums, the Conservative Greg Knight
:44:59. > :45:02.and on keyboards, Pete Wishart of the SNP, who has been on an actual
:45:03. > :45:08.band that played in stadiums and everything! But just how rock 'n'
:45:09. > :45:14.roll are these guys? I want to ask about rock cliches. Do you have
:45:15. > :45:20.groupies? Yes, but we don't tell the media about them. Have you ever
:45:21. > :45:27.trashed a hotel room? I rearranged the towels are slightly. There are
:45:28. > :45:32.violent rows between two members of the group, usually the two Labour
:45:33. > :45:38.members! Kevin was in favour of Gordon Brown and I was in favour of
:45:39. > :45:43.Tony Blair! MP4 I'll regulars on the Westminster social scene. This cake
:45:44. > :45:50.was last week at the Parliamentary variety show. -- are regulars. The
:45:51. > :45:55.band have raised ?1 million for good causes over the last decade, they
:45:56. > :46:00.reckon. And yes, there is an album - probably not available in a record
:46:01. > :46:04.shop near you. Pete Wishart has come from a
:46:05. > :46:09.recording studio and he joins us now. How did you all get together?
:46:10. > :46:19.It's ten years and I think Andrew was at our first gig. I was from the
:46:20. > :46:24.music industry and there was an all-party music group put together
:46:25. > :46:27.and I wanted to get debate going. I met Ian and we started about the
:46:28. > :46:32.prospect of putting together a parliamentary rock band. We said we
:46:33. > :46:35.would never find a drummer to only find Greg Knight eavesdropping on
:46:36. > :46:39.our conversation and he asked if we were talking about a drummer and
:46:40. > :46:43.offered his services. We were quite happy being MP3 at that point and
:46:44. > :46:47.then Kevin Brennan decided to gate-crash the party with his guitar
:46:48. > :46:53.and from Bennet been MP4 so we've risen to the steady heights of
:46:54. > :46:58.competence! -- from then it's been. You didn't have to audition, then? I
:46:59. > :47:05.don't think there was a great talent -based audition from! Any hidden
:47:06. > :47:10.talents here? No, but I think Ed Balls is trying his best to get in!
:47:11. > :47:16.MP4 performed one New Year on the terrace and they had a guest, David
:47:17. > :47:21.Morris the MP4 Morecambe. He's a genuine session guitarist so there
:47:22. > :47:27.is a reserve in place! Maybe your fame could spread further than the
:47:28. > :47:38.Westminster terraces. You could be in Pienaar spaceman grow 650. -- you
:47:39. > :47:43.could be MP650. We've raised quite a lot of money for Macmillan Cancer
:47:44. > :47:47.Support. We've made a lot of great friends in the ten years.
:47:48. > :47:51.Camaraderie urges in bands and developed and we are very
:47:52. > :47:56.supportive. Not like the Rolling Stones, then!
:47:57. > :48:01.You haven't split up and come back together? No, I think this will be
:48:02. > :48:06.the line-up until our last days. When is your next gig? Believe it or
:48:07. > :48:13.not, the Speaker has kindly agreed to allow us to do a show in
:48:14. > :48:20.Speaker's House to celebrate ten years. We also have a gig where we
:48:21. > :48:24.sail up and down the Thames. Do you think John Bercow would allow you to
:48:25. > :48:36.play a gig in the chamber? I think that would be ruled out. How many
:48:37. > :48:40.copies has your album sold? Three. Still available on all good download
:48:41. > :48:48.sites! Have you noticed something about the band? In what way? It's
:48:49. > :48:54.cross-party but there are no Lib Dems. I'm not sure we have any Lib
:48:55. > :49:02.Dem musicians. You have a few fiddlers! Very good! He did turn up
:49:03. > :49:09.with his mouth organ once but we had to let him down gently! But it isn't
:49:10. > :49:14.a policy that they're barred? Is a Liberal Democrat came forward with
:49:15. > :49:20.is a pre-musical talent he would be admit it at media early! Have you
:49:21. > :49:29.heard them play? I haven't but I hope they manage to stay together.
:49:30. > :49:32.Maybe if you win at the Brits! We are waiting for the best
:49:33. > :49:37.parliamentary rock group category to emerge! Would have been nice to have
:49:38. > :49:45.you play them all out because we now say goodbye to the three of you
:49:46. > :49:49.guests. Enjoy. Back to the budget, a day of high
:49:50. > :49:51.drama in the Westminster village calendar. Apart from the general
:49:52. > :49:59.election, it's probably as good as it gets. Let's take a look back.
:50:00. > :50:21.If you are a maker, a doer or a saver, this budget is for you.
:50:22. > :50:24.CHEERING If you like the Budget, we need to
:50:25. > :50:28.put the question. All the prime minister needs to do is nod his head
:50:29. > :50:34.if he's going to rule out cutting the 45p tax. There was almost no
:50:35. > :50:42.mention of young people in the statement at all. A very, very
:50:43. > :50:46.sensible Budget. I'm joined now by one man who things budgets are a
:50:47. > :50:51.waste of time, trying to do us out of a job! He's Danny Finklestein.
:50:52. > :50:57.He's a Tory peer and terribly grand. And one man who thinks they're not,
:50:58. > :51:07.Steve Richards. He's not a peer - yet - but is quite grand. I think we
:51:08. > :51:13.have now got four fiscal events in a two-year period and I'd like one.
:51:14. > :51:17.The best type of Chancellor creates a framework for the economy, a
:51:18. > :51:20.framework for taxation, has a sense of direction and doesn't want to
:51:21. > :51:26.keep on moving taxes up and down to manage the news media. But the way
:51:27. > :51:29.the fiscal calendar is organised, it encourages people to do something
:51:30. > :51:33.that means that television programmes have got something
:51:34. > :51:37.exciting to say about them. And what's wrong with that? I can
:51:38. > :51:41.understand why the media, including myself and the Chancellor, will have
:51:42. > :51:45.a vested interest in having all these events but I don't think it
:51:46. > :51:52.makes for good policy because the better policy is long-term strategic
:51:53. > :51:56.policy. I accept that you get silly policies and I think it's worth the
:51:57. > :51:59.silly policies because in my view, politics is now an art form and one
:52:00. > :52:03.might as well and break the artistry. In other words, we need
:52:04. > :52:07.these events, partly to hold people to account, partly to explore what
:52:08. > :52:12.they're up to, partly to explore what they are. And without these
:52:13. > :52:16.events, we wouldn't get that, so it's a wholly artificial device, the
:52:17. > :52:20.Budget, the party conference speech, all the annual rituals we have, the
:52:21. > :52:26.Autumn Statement which is, in effect, a second Budget. We get the
:52:27. > :52:30.silly policies but it's worth it because it gives us an excuse to
:52:31. > :52:35.explore what they're about. And take stock. And take stock. And without
:52:36. > :52:40.them, we wouldn't have these pauses in the general frenzy of political
:52:41. > :52:43.life. I think and argue that have to start with silly policies being
:52:44. > :52:49.worth the price is arguing against itself. What makes you think you
:52:50. > :52:53.wouldn't still get silly policies? I think the few occasions you have
:52:54. > :52:58.where politicians are expected, as a matter of ritual, to turn up with
:52:59. > :53:02.something exciting to say, the better policy would be... Let's take
:53:03. > :53:06.a beer policy. It sensible to create a long-term framework for the
:53:07. > :53:09.taxation of alcohol. It isn't sensible to have a framework in
:53:10. > :53:12.which people are courage to move the attacks up and down to create
:53:13. > :53:25.newspaper headlines. But if you don't do that, you don't get any
:53:26. > :53:30.headlines. -- to move here tax. You end up with posters like the one Mr
:53:31. > :53:35.Schatz has released. It tells us about what the person who came up
:53:36. > :53:44.with it thinks. -- that Grant Shapps has released. It's taken the lid off
:53:45. > :53:48.something? It tells us about a thought process. I feel like the
:53:49. > :53:54.Leader of the Opposition. I've got nothing interesting to say about it.
:53:55. > :53:59.I can't understand what everyone has got so excited about. In a way, it
:54:00. > :54:15.makes my case, which is that it's a silly political row about the words
:54:16. > :54:20.people use. All the letter set. It's digitally made now! In terms of
:54:21. > :54:26.policy, you get the silly things about beer but in terms of the
:54:27. > :54:30.pensions announcement, I saw some people say they think it will
:54:31. > :54:44.implode but I think probably, after the so called on the shambles
:54:45. > :54:50.Budget, this, I assume will be rock solid. -- omnishambles Budget. We've
:54:51. > :55:01.had the Mayor of London, it on the poster. Let's have a look. Who are
:55:02. > :55:08."vague"? I haven't seen it. -- who are "they" ? It seems to be
:55:09. > :55:13.celebrating the fact that we are cutting the tax on bingo and beer
:55:14. > :55:21.and that is the right thing to do. Are they via Tony and is? -- the
:55:22. > :55:26.people who went to Eton? I think it is the right thing to do. I didn't
:55:27. > :55:33.write the blooming thing. It's trying to get across the message
:55:34. > :55:41.that it is the Budget for everybody. What's he supposed to say? May be
:55:42. > :55:51.what he thinks! Well, it's a little bit of paper with a few words on
:55:52. > :55:54.it. Naturally, this kind of conversation in which the consensus
:55:55. > :55:58.is that it was silly is an opportunity for somebody who isn't a
:55:59. > :56:05.Conservative to say it is a silly poster. Maybe for other people, and
:56:06. > :56:11.just not for me - it didn't strike me as that interesting. You don't
:56:12. > :56:17.think it tells us something? I do. And so does the Budget speech. On
:56:18. > :56:20.the whole, it would be a very tedious exercise but if you look
:56:21. > :56:28.back at Budget speeches, much more than Queens speeches, it tells us a
:56:29. > :56:35.lot about the economic policy, of a future intent, context. I do think
:56:36. > :56:38.they force people - in this case chancellors - to think about who
:56:39. > :56:41.they are and what they are about and they tell us things. It's the same
:56:42. > :56:46.with the leaders' conference speeches. I spoke to one of the
:56:47. > :56:49.leaders before there's last September and October and I asked if
:56:50. > :56:53.they were fed up about the amount of time they spend on it and they said
:56:54. > :56:59.it made them focus and concentrate the mind. Let's forget the poster
:57:00. > :57:04.and come onto the substance or, more particularly, both of you give me
:57:05. > :57:11.your view about where this leaves our politics up to the election,
:57:12. > :57:14.after this budget? I don't think the Budget will have altered this but we
:57:15. > :57:19.are in for a period where we have this debate between the living
:57:20. > :57:22.standards rising versus whether growth is rising. People will know
:57:23. > :57:26.the country is doing well and then wonder whether they themselves are
:57:27. > :57:29.doing well. If they feel they are not they may well say that the Tory
:57:30. > :57:33.brand values are that they don't help people like them and that's why
:57:34. > :57:38.they are not being held. There is a great boon - we got things right,
:57:39. > :57:42.the economy is going the right direction. And the danger which is
:57:43. > :57:47.the party being seen not to help people. Where it is clever is that
:57:48. > :57:51.there will now be a new focus on savers which hasn't really been
:57:52. > :57:53.around in our daily reflections on politics and economics throughout
:57:54. > :58:01.this whole period. That will change I think and that is quite a big
:58:02. > :58:05.twist. Other than that, I think it will have little impact on the wider
:58:06. > :58:10.political mood in the short-term. I'll be surprised if polls show a
:58:11. > :58:13.sudden huge Tory lead. And in the build-up, there were clearly a
:58:14. > :58:17.series of traps for Labour and the one they haven't yet resolved is
:58:18. > :58:21.whether they support his tax and spend plans or his spending targets
:58:22. > :58:25.for the next parliament and that will be a big call on their part.
:58:26. > :58:31.Unlike the welfare cap, my guess is that they won't stop That's a debate
:58:32. > :58:44.to come. That will shape the politics of the election. That's it
:58:45. > :58:48.for today. The News At One is starting over on BBC One now. I'll
:58:49. > :58:50.be on BBC One tonight with Ranulph Fiennes, Kevin Maguire, Miranda
:58:51. > :58:54.Green, Diane Abbott and Michael Portillo on This Week at 11:35pm.
:58:55. > :58:57.And I will be back here at noon tomorrow with all the big political
:58:58. > :59:00.stories of the day. What are you doing? What am I doing here? !
:59:01. > :59:01.You're a glutton for punishment! Goodbye.