:00:36. > :00:37.Afternoon, folks, welcome to the Daily Politics.
:00:38. > :00:39.It's the final day of campaigning ahead of European
:00:40. > :00:51.The leaders are all still out and about, trying to pick up
:00:52. > :01:00.last-minute votes in what promises to be one of the most significant
:01:01. > :01:04.It wouldn't be an election without a few cock-ups,
:01:05. > :01:17.I'm live at the new library in Birmingham to find out how voters
:01:18. > :01:18.feel about the candidates in the European elections with less than 24
:01:19. > :01:20.hours to go. We'll talk about what not to do
:01:21. > :01:24.when you're trying to get elected. And with the polls all over
:01:25. > :01:28.the place - well, kind of - we turn the stars to get the real analysis
:01:29. > :01:31.our party political astrologer. And with us
:01:32. > :01:36.for this elections extravaganza is the pollster's pollster, a man who
:01:37. > :01:39.always checks his horoscope - He's conducted more surveys
:01:40. > :01:48.than you've had hot dinners. He's probably even run a poll
:01:49. > :01:54.about hot dinners. What was the outcome? People like
:01:55. > :02:04.them! That cost us ?10,000! So,
:02:05. > :02:06.the party leaders are having a busy Ed Miliband has embarked
:02:07. > :02:11.on a US-style ten-stop tour of the country, each stop designed to
:02:12. > :02:18.highlight a different Labour policy. buy some red roses for his wife
:02:19. > :02:21.Justine and promote his pledge to He'll be hoping to move on from
:02:22. > :02:28.several gaffes during interviews yesterday, including getting into
:02:29. > :02:35.a muddle over how much his flesh yesterday, including getting into
:02:36. > :02:38.a muddle over how much his And the Dave and Boris show has hit
:02:39. > :02:43.the road, pressing the flesh The Prime Minister didn't buy
:02:44. > :02:48.anything for SamCam but he bought Of course, Newark's the scene for
:02:49. > :02:53.a crucial by-election on the 5th of June, and the Tories are throwing
:02:54. > :02:57.the kitchen sink, which includes their biggest stars, like Boris,
:02:58. > :03:00.at the campaign to try to stop And Nigel Farage and Nick Clegg have
:03:01. > :03:06.been out on the airwaves, too. Of course, the BBC's going to be
:03:07. > :03:09.bringing you coverage of the local elections tomorrow night
:03:10. > :03:13.and then again on Friday afternoon. Then overnight on Sunday,
:03:14. > :03:16.we'll have those all-important And, as usual, Jeremy Vine has blown
:03:17. > :03:24.the Beeb's annual graphics budget. Here he is to explain what's up
:03:25. > :03:36.for grabs. The local elections will cover 36
:03:37. > :03:41.metropolitan boroughs. Let's look at the map. Most of them held by
:03:42. > :03:44.Labour. 19 unitary authorities and the 32 boroughs of London and you
:03:45. > :03:48.can see lots of places where people are not voting. If we have a look at
:03:49. > :03:52.the result last year you will see what happened and why it was quite
:03:53. > :03:54.stunning. This is projected national share as if the local elections had
:03:55. > :04:05.been The reason for this is the emergence
:04:06. > :04:11.of UKIP at 23% and the first time they have been on this craft. To
:04:12. > :04:18.give it some context, we can go back to 2007 and look at the local
:04:19. > :04:23.election results. 2007, Conservatives doing well. Labour in
:04:24. > :04:27.power. The governing party, as always, getting punished. Gordon
:04:28. > :04:36.Brown really struggling. 2010 is the year to focus on. These power seats
:04:37. > :04:39.that were up last week. What you see is almost a difficulty for Labour of
:04:40. > :04:44.really showing the Conservatives a clean pair of heels. And this is
:04:45. > :04:48.quite an unusual pattern, with all three parties here looking quite
:04:49. > :04:52.suppressed. Surely that is the effect of UKIP coming in and making
:04:53. > :04:55.such an impact. There are also elections to the European
:04:56. > :05:00.such an impact. There are also and here is the battle ground. 500
:05:01. > :05:04.million people in it! If we look at the UK last time, 12 regions with 73
:05:05. > :05:08.MEPs to be sent the UK last time, 12 regions with 73
:05:09. > :05:15.only one coloured read last time. the UK last time, 12 regions with 73
:05:16. > :05:19.But we can break it down in a slightly simple manner.
:05:20. > :05:22.But we can break it down in a UKIP purple where they are strongest
:05:23. > :05:27.and some Lib Dem orange as well. But clearly blue tells the story. The
:05:28. > :05:33.Conservatives, the overall winners. Half as many for UKIP and Labour.
:05:34. > :05:36.Conservatives, the overall winners. The Lib Dems on 11. They
:05:37. > :05:42.Conservatives, the overall winners. night. And two for the Greens. That
:05:43. > :05:49.was the result last time. What will happen this time? Well, look at the
:05:50. > :05:50.polls and what they say about voting intentions in European elections.
:05:51. > :05:53.You see an extraordinary intentions in European elections.
:05:54. > :05:54.UKIP. This time last intentions in European elections.
:05:55. > :05:57.in first place when it intentions in European elections.
:05:58. > :06:02.people will vote in a European intentions in European elections.
:06:03. > :06:06.and Labour powers through. The Lib Dems really struggling and the
:06:07. > :06:13.Conservatives a bit more robust than expected. But here we are at the
:06:14. > :06:18.end. And this is what we will be watching during this election. Who
:06:19. > :06:23.will take first? Could UKIP really put Labour into second?
:06:24. > :06:31.So that is what 21st century graphics look like! I have only seen
:06:32. > :06:37.hours! Ben, the polls are all over the place but they are not
:06:38. > :06:41.consistent. One thing they seem to be getting consistent is that UKIP
:06:42. > :06:46.is the first in the European polls? In most of them and there is one out
:06:47. > :06:49.today where people have them level pegging. But certainly UKIP are
:06:50. > :06:53.doing much better than last time. They were second last time and if
:06:54. > :06:57.they are second this time it will be by a very narrow margin. One thing
:06:58. > :07:00.we have to remember is that all polls have a margin of error
:07:01. > :07:08.attached to them. The average poll has at least a 3-point error rate.
:07:09. > :07:13.So it is getting almost too close to call between Labour and UKIP, but it
:07:14. > :07:18.will all be about the machine on the ground and whether you can get your
:07:19. > :07:25.voters out. And the postal vote? Yes, and Nigel Farage is hoping that
:07:26. > :07:32.will have Been cast before some of the cock ups of the last day or two.
:07:33. > :07:42.We have always known that Labour voters are a bit less likely,
:07:43. > :07:46.traditionally, to get out. They don't get out to the polling
:07:47. > :07:51.station. We will know in a little while. Is possible UKIP, Labour and
:07:52. > :07:55.the Tories could be quite close together? That the spread between
:07:56. > :08:01.the three will not be huge absolutely. Conservatives probably
:08:02. > :08:04.in third place but it is absolutely neck and neck between Labour and
:08:05. > :08:10.UKIP and anything could happen, to be quite honest. And pollsters have
:08:11. > :08:14.been asking how you would vote in the European elections and then the
:08:15. > :08:19.general or even the local tomorrow. What do the local... What do the
:08:20. > :08:23.polls tell us about the local elections? To be honest, there
:08:24. > :08:27.haven't been a great deal of polls about those because there are so
:08:28. > :08:33.many different local circumstances. Labour did pretty well last time. So
:08:34. > :08:37.we should see Labour, if they are going to do well at a general
:08:38. > :08:41.election, you would want to see them holding on. Trafford is
:08:42. > :08:49.interesting. Can Labour in a northern city take Trafford from the
:08:50. > :08:53.Conservatives crept -- Conservatives? But they could lose a
:08:54. > :08:59.few councillors next time, or on Thursday. Will the local election
:09:00. > :09:04.results, when we get them late tomorrow night, will they tell us
:09:05. > :09:07.more about the general election than the European election results? To be
:09:08. > :09:11.honest, because they are voting at the same time, they will tell us
:09:12. > :09:15.more about the European elections because this is the turnout and in
:09:16. > :09:23.general elections it is so much higher. One word of caution, these
:09:24. > :09:27.almost have no correlation with what happened that General elections.
:09:28. > :09:33.Tony Blair got beaten all over the shop by the Conservatives but then
:09:34. > :09:38.won handsomely. Who will come first in the European elections? UKIP but
:09:39. > :09:42.only probably. And it could change. There you go! He is hedging his
:09:43. > :09:49.bets. And I am right to do so! Now, on yesterday's show we were
:09:50. > :09:52.in Milton Keynes talking Today we've sent Adam to Britain's
:09:53. > :09:56.second biggest city He's there talking to people
:09:57. > :10:01.about tomorrow's European elections and he's visiting
:10:02. > :10:08.the city's brand new library. Hello, good to see you. Welcome to
:10:09. > :10:12.Birmingham and the brand-new library. Look at it glinting there
:10:13. > :10:18.in the beautiful summer sunshine. It opened last September and I am told
:10:19. > :10:23.it has 800,000 books and even a slightly smaller EU section which
:10:24. > :10:27.was empty today, apart from the Daily Politics producers, who were
:10:28. > :10:32.swatting up for this item! Out there is the West Midlands, with something
:10:33. > :10:36.like four and a bit million voters for the European elections. They
:10:37. > :10:39.will be sending seven MEPs to Strasbourg and Brussels as a result
:10:40. > :10:44.of this vote but how hard are the party is working to try to win
:10:45. > :10:53.voters over? If only there were a tried and tested way to work it out.
:10:54. > :10:57.We have brought our famous soapbox and voting box to the famous
:10:58. > :11:03.bullring. The question, have you had any contact with the parties? What
:11:04. > :11:08.kind have you had? The Conservatives. It was just the
:11:09. > :11:13.leaflet. What did you think? I thought it was quite good. What
:11:14. > :11:19.about the others? What did that make you think? It made me think, where
:11:20. > :11:25.are they? Can you remember anything that was said? I will lead them this
:11:26. > :11:28.evening because I have them ready to read. Have you had in the
:11:29. > :11:33.information from the political parties about the European
:11:34. > :11:43.elections? No. Nobody knocking at the door? No. Do think that is a bit
:11:44. > :11:46.weird? Definitely. Do you think it is a bit
:11:47. > :11:51.heard anything and there is a big election coming up? Yes! I didn't
:11:52. > :11:57.even know there was a big election coming up! Have you had any of the
:11:58. > :12:05.ration about the European elections? Everybody did the same tricks in the
:12:06. > :12:13.book. Really? Yeah! I've been away for 14 years. There's a lot to catch
:12:14. > :12:25.up! Tony Blair isn't here any more! Who has better leaflets? We have! We
:12:26. > :12:30.are a party! Free mascara! We have had people knocking at the door
:12:31. > :12:37.bothering us. It has been a bit intense. Pretty annoying, yeah. What
:12:38. > :12:43.if you got a tweet from a political party? Possibly. Or a Facebook...
:12:44. > :12:50.Have you had any contact from the political parties? Don't all come
:12:51. > :12:56.knocking at the door at once! It depends what they are saying.
:12:57. > :13:00.Picture this. David Cameron at the door? He would have to go right
:13:01. > :13:05.through the gate and over the wall! Have you seen any of the party
:13:06. > :13:14.election broadcast? Yes. Can you remember them? I was pretty
:13:15. > :13:21.impressed with the Labour one. I was pretty impressed. I know people have
:13:22. > :13:27.been criticising. So you have been two hustings at university. Do you
:13:28. > :13:35.think we need more of that around elections? Yes. I was surprised at
:13:36. > :13:43.how ruthless it was. Have we inspired you when you get home? Yes.
:13:44. > :13:48.Some have had contact but not a big majority by any means. Come on!
:13:49. > :13:52.People are waiting for a leaflet! And, conveniently, we have some
:13:53. > :13:56.politicians right here to ask them about it. We have Anthea McIntyre of
:13:57. > :14:01.the Conservatives and James Carver from UKIP. Can it really be true
:14:02. > :14:06.that the public haven't had any contact from any of you? I think
:14:07. > :14:16.that is surprisingly. We have sent an individual address to every
:14:17. > :14:20.elector. You haven't had as much it delivered experience getting out to
:14:21. > :14:25.the voters. The party has come a very long way in recent years. We
:14:26. > :14:30.have a record number of elections. 77% of the seats at this time.
:14:31. > :14:36.have a record number of elections. have the people to get out and I am
:14:37. > :14:39.very, very encouraged. And I will be running people to the polling
:14:40. > :14:45.station as a candidate. It is all very hands on deck and we are
:14:46. > :14:48.confident of a superb result. The Chancellor was saying that UKIP
:14:49. > :14:51.could wreck the economy. What does he mean by that? I think they will
:14:52. > :14:55.take votes he mean by that? I think they will
:14:56. > :14:56.cannot deliver on anything they promised. Only Conservatives can
:14:57. > :15:01.give promised. Only Conservatives can
:15:02. > :15:06.produce a sustainable growth in the economy. And a vote for UKIP is a
:15:07. > :15:10.protest that will just fly in the face of that. So if you want
:15:11. > :15:20.changing Europe and done in-out referendum, the only party to vote
:15:21. > :15:24.for is the Conservatives. -- and an. In last year's local elections,
:15:25. > :15:28.across-the-board on the first past the post elections, when the
:15:29. > :15:33.European Union was even raised, UKIP scored 24% of the vote. We are in a
:15:34. > :15:36.situation now with a Prime Minister in a difficult situation with his
:15:37. > :15:42.own party because of the motives of the British people. Much of our
:15:43. > :15:47.support comes from people who haven't voted in the previous
:15:48. > :15:51.elections so UKIP is invigorating the British public and not since the
:15:52. > :15:59.birth in the 1900 have people been so ready for a positive message.
:16:00. > :16:04.That's a big claim! Prime Minister is a big position. We have an
:16:05. > :16:09.improving economy, inward investment, growth is predicted to
:16:10. > :16:13.rise, we do not want to risk that with a protest vote with a party
:16:14. > :16:19.that cannot deliver anything. They like to make you think they can, but
:16:20. > :16:26.that cannot deliver anything. They give you a referendum is the Tories.
:16:27. > :16:32.The referendum will be in 2017, we are told, would you like it earlier
:16:33. > :16:36.than that? No, I would not. I want to see renegotiation and reform. I
:16:37. > :16:39.think we can make you are a lot better for the UK, and we have got
:16:40. > :16:48.think we can make you are a lot to try and do that and then we will
:16:49. > :16:49.have the referendum. I met a parrot the other day and the Conservatives
:16:50. > :16:56.sound just like that! I am sorry, the other day and the Conservatives
:16:57. > :17:01.Anthea... Let's have a sensible debate and not just insult! You are
:17:02. > :17:03.being insulting to the British people because
:17:04. > :17:09.being insulting to the British five years we should turn around and
:17:10. > :17:17.renegotiate. Have I interrupted you? You have, yet! Let us listen to
:17:18. > :17:21.what the vice president of the commission has said. He says there
:17:22. > :17:25.should be no renegotiation. Sun that is not true! Can I ask a question?
:17:26. > :17:28.should be no renegotiation. Sun that UKIP sense to MEPs to Brussels but
:17:29. > :17:36.they have resigned from the party, what has gone on? -- sent to MEPs.
:17:37. > :17:41.We are very confident we are going to do very well on May the 22nd and
:17:42. > :17:50.there is a precedent here. In 1999, in the first European elections, a
:17:51. > :17:55.former Labour MEP finished seventh. She stood as an independent Labour
:17:56. > :17:59.candidate and did not even save her deposit. This election is about
:18:00. > :18:06.political parties and the UKIP pound sign is on the ballot paper. If
:18:07. > :18:15.people want to say, we have had enough of Europe, they can vote
:18:16. > :18:20.UKIP. When I was doing the survey, the two politicians that people name
:18:21. > :18:28.are Nigel Farage... That is saying that Nigel Farage is doing a good
:18:29. > :18:34.job, he is going to reform. Tomorrow is not about that. The people who do
:18:35. > :18:39.the work, that turnout, endlessly voting on behalf of Britain, they
:18:40. > :18:45.are the Tories. UKIP vote against British interest. We are in a
:18:46. > :18:50.library. When did you last go to a library and what did you borrow?
:18:51. > :18:57.Probably Harry Potter! 1984, George Orwell. What does that say about you
:18:58. > :19:07.too? ! You can find out more about the candidates on the West Midlands
:19:08. > :19:12.pages on the BBC website. Thank you. A beautiful new library in the
:19:13. > :19:18.centre of Birmingham. I hope it means they can knock down the old
:19:19. > :19:22.library. There has been some breaking news while we have been on
:19:23. > :19:30.air. Public funding for the Police Federation is going to be stopped
:19:31. > :19:35.altogether from August. It currently gets ?190,000 per year from the
:19:36. > :19:43.taxpayer. The Home Secretary Theresa May said that it is going to stop.
:19:44. > :19:46.Now, every election campaign has its share of hiccups.
:19:47. > :19:49.The kind of moments that wake the spin doctors in the dead
:19:50. > :19:54.Who could forget Gordon Brown calling a Labour voter a bigot
:19:55. > :19:56.in 2010, little realising his microphone was switched on.
:19:57. > :19:59.Well, yesterday was a good day for fans of campaign blunders.
:20:00. > :20:03.Ed Miliband had already got into a spot of bother after telling
:20:04. > :20:05.an interviewer his family's weekly shop cost about ?70 or ?80,
:20:06. > :20:08.when the average family of four typically spends more than ?100.
:20:09. > :20:19.He then went on to give this interview to BBC Wiltshire.
:20:20. > :20:30.What do you make of Jean Grant? I beg your pardon? You think he has
:20:31. > :20:31.done a good job? I think lots of Labour representatives are doing a
:20:32. > :21:18.good job right across the country. With us now is George Pascoe-Watson,
:21:19. > :21:37.the former political editor of the With the benefit of hindsight, what
:21:38. > :21:43.should he have done? He should have prepared. If you prepare properly
:21:44. > :21:46.and you find yourself in that situation, it even if you had
:21:47. > :21:49.forgotten the name of the Labour leader, you would have remembered
:21:50. > :21:55.why you were in Swindon and you would have been able to say, it is a
:21:56. > :22:01.long day, you would excuse me if I had forgotten his name. What I do
:22:02. > :22:07.know is that he is fighting a strong campaign for as in Swindon on
:22:08. > :22:12.whatever the issue is. You have to do things that are genuine and not
:22:13. > :22:17.PR stunts which is where UKIP, of course, had their difficulties as
:22:18. > :22:20.well. Work out why I'm in Swindon, you do not need to be there for any
:22:21. > :22:29.other reason than to campaign. If you know that and prepare properly,
:22:30. > :22:32.you can be genuine and authentic. Ed Miliband has all these people around
:22:33. > :22:38.him, they travel with him, he has an entourage. Why did they not brief
:22:39. > :22:41.him? Where were they? It is local elections, it is a local radio
:22:42. > :22:48.programme, he should have been briefed by his people. It is a Tory
:22:49. > :22:56.controlled town, we are so number of seats behind, and the leader is
:22:57. > :22:59.called Jim. That is right, I am sure there is an inquest going on in the
:23:00. > :23:03.Labour machine about that kind of thing. You need to bear in mind that
:23:04. > :23:11.I have some sympathy with politicians. The election trail now
:23:12. > :23:14.is very long, and they are trying to pick up stuff. They are trying to
:23:15. > :23:20.focus on major international news which is happening. A microphone can
:23:21. > :23:25.be crossed in their face any time. Here is the difference perhaps. In
:23:26. > :23:30.the old days, he would have been in Swindon but on this, you were
:23:31. > :23:36.sitting in a studio in London and doing one local radio station after
:23:37. > :23:40.another. When you launch a book, that is what you do now. Maybe when
:23:41. > :23:45.you do that, and you are not going to the location, and you are not
:23:46. > :23:50.meeting anyone, you do not learn enough as you sure. And that is what
:23:51. > :23:52.I mean by being authentic and doing things that are true rather than
:23:53. > :23:57.presenting yourself as something you are not. I think what is really
:23:58. > :24:02.interesting about this, though, on the wider picture, is that this
:24:03. > :24:07.general election coming up next year is going to be the first digital
:24:08. > :24:19.one, where things happen at 1 million million mph. Cock ups are
:24:20. > :24:26.going to happen. Who is the guy, when they do make a clock up, is
:24:27. > :24:31.going to get out of it in humility, with a human touch, and sort of
:24:32. > :24:36.dance away from it? The Tories will take great heart from the fact that
:24:37. > :24:42.Ed Miliband looked a bit stuck. He was not the only one stuck in the
:24:43. > :24:47.wicket yesterday. UKIP decided to hold a multiracial carnival
:24:48. > :24:51.yesterday in Croydon. I thought you were going to say car crash! What
:24:52. > :25:09.could go wrong? Music and the people! Happiness! When did you
:25:10. > :25:19.first know this was a UKIP demonstration? When we first got
:25:20. > :25:25.here. Do you feel used? Slightly. I have heard they are not really
:25:26. > :25:30.racist, I do not know. Are they racist? I'm not sure. Successive
:25:31. > :25:34.governments have continued and still today, they fail to look after
:25:35. > :25:46.communities like Croydon. Croydon was once the place to be, the place
:25:47. > :25:50.to shop and it has now come a dump! Years standing in the Euro elections
:25:51. > :25:55.for the area. That is a novel way to win vote. Whereas you would not
:25:56. > :26:00.expect the Leader of the Opposition to get into that much trouble in a
:26:01. > :26:05.radio interview down the line to a local radio station, that had
:26:06. > :26:09.disaster written all over it before you got there, didn't it? It is back
:26:10. > :26:15.to planning and being authentic. PR stunts do not work because they are
:26:16. > :26:19.not authentic. You are only trying to be somebody you are not. That
:26:20. > :26:24.shines through and when things are not executed well planned route, it
:26:25. > :26:31.falls apart and the cracks appear. That is what happened here. For
:26:32. > :26:36.Nigel Farage, his whole plan has to be the anti-politician. Every time a
:26:37. > :26:41.clock up happens, he uses it to amplify the fact that he is a human
:26:42. > :26:48.being, things go wrong, and that strengthens the sense that he is
:26:49. > :26:59.just an odd guy. And die?! In terms of politics. -- an odd guy? ! A lot
:27:00. > :27:05.of this is about competence. It is about exaggerating things that
:27:06. > :27:09.people already have about them. Ed Miliband is photographed with a
:27:10. > :27:14.slightly gormless look as he eats a sandwich. It let's the persona
:27:15. > :27:18.slipped and reminds people about how they perceive you. The other point
:27:19. > :27:23.about Nigel Farage is that people like people like that. They like
:27:24. > :27:29.Charlie Kennedy, they like Boris. Do they want that person to become
:27:30. > :27:32.Prime Minister? Narrative begins to form about Ed Miliband.
:27:33. > :27:38.Prime Minister? Narrative begins to to clock ups? That is the really
:27:39. > :27:42.difficult thing if you are Labour. -- clock ups.
:27:43. > :27:55.Make sure he is a bit more nimble on his feet. There is a kind of Gotcha
:27:56. > :28:01.culture at the moment where we ask politicians about the price of
:28:02. > :28:05.bread. I would suggest that Winston Churchill did not know the price of
:28:06. > :28:09.bread but he saved us from the Nazis. The problem with Ed Miliband
:28:10. > :28:13.is that his whole plan has been about the cost of living and how it
:28:14. > :28:17.is hurting ordinary families. If you do not know what the cost of living
:28:18. > :28:23.is, how do you know what a crisis is? It reminds us that he is not
:28:24. > :28:30.like the rest of us. He does not do as much as David Cameron does but it
:28:31. > :28:34.does not help. The truth is, is it not, in their own different ways, Mr
:28:35. > :28:43.Cameron and Ed Miliband are out of touch. All politicians, because of
:28:44. > :28:47.where they are, they do not have time to go shopping and that is
:28:48. > :28:54.where authenticity comes in. It is about crafting a message. It is
:28:55. > :28:58.about saying, I am not going to pretend I push the trolley around in
:28:59. > :29:02.Morrisons. It is about saying who you are in having the guts and the
:29:03. > :29:07.balls to say it. A person like Boris is actually very good at disarming
:29:08. > :29:15.it. When Boris was asked, you said, I do not know, so what! We have got
:29:16. > :29:21.to go and move on but we all agree that Gordon Brown's blunder was one
:29:22. > :29:27.of the greatest blunders of modern times. It was a bad blunder at a bad
:29:28. > :29:31.time. It played to a narrative that people had already priced in. The
:29:32. > :29:34.question here is whether any of the gaffes yesterday will have a
:29:35. > :29:40.difference to tomorrow's boats. We shall see. Thank you. We talked
:29:41. > :29:41.about the campaigns run by the major parties, but what about the smaller
:29:42. > :29:43.parties? In the run-up to tomorrow's
:29:44. > :29:46.elections we've been speaking to parties that are standing eight or
:29:47. > :29:49.more candidates for the European Parliament, and Giles is
:29:50. > :29:58.on the green with two more. I am taking credit for the price of
:29:59. > :30:05.milk question. Let me introduce you to the public face of the Socialist
:30:06. > :30:11.equality party. Let me start with you. What does the National Liberal
:30:12. > :30:14.party stand for? It seems that it is a collection of people who believe
:30:15. > :30:24.in separatist movements around the world? Exactly. We are standing for
:30:25. > :30:30.self-determination for all nations. And at the same time, we are proud
:30:31. > :30:37.and I am proud to be British and to live in a British way of life here.
:30:38. > :30:44.We are working very hard here in the UK... Working hard to do what? What
:30:45. > :30:49.we do is work with communities to engage them in the political process
:30:50. > :30:54.here in the UK and in Europe as well, so that they can be effective
:30:55. > :31:02.and they can feel they are really part of this political process and
:31:03. > :31:08.part of society. The guy who tops your list for the elections, Graham
:31:09. > :31:12.Williamson, was once a founding member in a very large part of the
:31:13. > :31:17.National Front. You comfortable with that? Exactly. We are very proud to
:31:18. > :31:26.have him on the list. Because we have known these guys for years and
:31:27. > :31:34.years. He has tried to integrate all these communities into society. He
:31:35. > :31:40.has said many times it is a party of his history. 20, 30 years ago. And
:31:41. > :31:45.he said, I have made a mistake and it was when he was a young guy. So
:31:46. > :31:50.we have to be fair when we are judging on someone. I'm looking at
:31:51. > :31:55.your manifesto. One of the suggestions is that after three
:31:56. > :32:00.cases of alcohol-related anti-social disorder, you should go to prison.
:32:01. > :32:05.That doesn't sound very liberal. Exactly! So we don't say exactly you
:32:06. > :32:10.have to go to prison. But what we believe, this much has to be
:32:11. > :32:16.organised because we know it is affecting a large part of the
:32:17. > :32:22.community here in the UK. Many people would understand that. Many
:32:23. > :32:29.people come out and they are supporting this. Good luck with the
:32:30. > :32:32.elections. Let me introduce Chris. Socialist Equality Party. There are
:32:33. > :32:38.quite a lot of Socialists smaller parties. What is different about
:32:39. > :32:43.yours? Our policies are correct and we stand on the side of the working
:32:44. > :32:50.class and we have a perspective that defends the working class. Trotsky
:32:51. > :32:55.party is what I was looking for. We are a Trotsky party. And you would
:32:56. > :33:01.like to see the creation of the United Socialist States of Europe?
:33:02. > :33:05.Yes. Why would the British public want to vote for that and do they
:33:06. > :33:08.vote for that? They would certainly want to vote for that when you
:33:09. > :33:12.consider the savage attacks being made on jobs and social conditions
:33:13. > :33:18.at the behest of the European Union. And the drive to war in the Ukraine
:33:19. > :33:21.against Russia. We are advancing a perspective where the continent
:33:22. > :33:25.takes control of its own destiny and fights for something better. Isn't
:33:26. > :33:31.the problem with these elections that if the class you are talking
:33:32. > :33:37.about has shrunk, they therefore don't vote for this. So we would be
:33:38. > :33:41.talking about you in the same way we talk about UKIP and the Greens
:33:42. > :33:47.previously? The working class is as big as it ever was. Most people need
:33:48. > :33:50.to get by and they need an alternative. Our job is to convince
:33:51. > :33:56.them that socialism is that alternative. If all of the smaller
:33:57. > :33:59.Socialist parties got together would you not have a better chance of
:34:00. > :34:03.getting your argument across? Because you are not that far
:34:04. > :34:13.distant, are you? I think we are very far apart. Please tell me I am
:34:14. > :34:18.not first up when the winner comes! We will be talking to more
:34:19. > :34:23.candidates from the smaller parties. The health party and the Peace
:34:24. > :34:26.Party. Well, I for one can hardly wait!
:34:27. > :34:28.So, there are elections of various kinds
:34:29. > :34:31.across the country tomorrow, and Northern Ireland is no exception.
:34:32. > :34:34.Voters there will go to the polls to choose three MEPs
:34:35. > :34:38.Unionists and nationalists have different views on EU membership
:34:39. > :34:41.and migration, but the legacy of The Troubles and the arrest
:34:42. > :34:44.of one of Northern Ireland's most high-profile politicians has also
:34:45. > :34:52.Here's our Northern Ireland political editor, Mark Davenport.
:34:53. > :35:00.If I was to secure an interview with David Axelrod or Lynton Crosby and
:35:01. > :35:04.ask them for their top tips for a party leader facing into an election
:35:05. > :35:09.campaign, I reckon neither strategists would recommend getting
:35:10. > :35:13.arrested. Definitely not getting arrested for questioning about the
:35:14. > :35:16.murder of a mother of ten. But then politics in Northern Ireland is
:35:17. > :35:20.radically different to politics anywhere else.
:35:21. > :35:23.radically different to politics When Gerry Adams was questioned
:35:24. > :35:26.about Jean McConville's murder, his party claimed it was an
:35:27. > :35:30.about Jean McConville's murder, his damage their election chances. But
:35:31. > :35:34.since the police released the Sinn Fein president without charge,
:35:35. > :35:38.Republicans have changed tack. One of the immediate effects was that it
:35:39. > :35:45.has galvanised the Sinn Fein party and the broader public family, so if
:35:46. > :35:55.people weren't fighting a good campaign, they are very focused.
:35:56. > :36:04.Miss Anderson is the bookies favourite. The SDLP lost a decade
:36:05. > :36:08.ago and chances are far slimmer. There is a gathering opportunity now
:36:09. > :36:13.to change fundamentally our politics here at home and elect a strong and
:36:14. > :36:18.decisive, effective voice into the European Parliament. The Unionist
:36:19. > :36:23.field is pretty packed. Candidates range from a new moderate, pro-UK
:36:24. > :36:29.party to more traditional unionists who view the election as a
:36:30. > :36:32.referendum on a power-sharing government at Stormont. This is the
:36:33. > :36:35.perfect opportunity for people to pass their verdict on the
:36:36. > :36:40.revelations of the constant pandering to Sinn Fein and also on
:36:41. > :36:44.the dismal performance of Stormont. People want to have a stable
:36:45. > :36:49.Northern Ireland. They want it to be moving forward and they want a
:36:50. > :36:52.party, the only party, that is capable of keeping Sinn Fein to what
:36:53. > :37:02.has pledged to do and that is what BD you people that party position
:37:03. > :37:10.will be. -- the day you pea -- the Democratic Unionist Party position.
:37:11. > :37:14.In the last election, the Ulster Unionists banded together with the
:37:15. > :37:16.Conservatives. That relationship has ended in divorce, with the
:37:17. > :37:21.Conservatives putting forward their own candidate. You are convinced you
:37:22. > :37:29.can get elected without the own candidate. You are convinced you
:37:30. > :37:35.central office? I think we can be very efficient and effective. UKIP
:37:36. > :37:38.already have one member at the Stormont Assembly. Others contesting
:37:39. > :37:42.these elections include the Greens and the cross community Alliance
:37:43. > :37:47.Party. Their candidate was subject to racist abuse after calling for
:37:48. > :37:54.the removal of flags and paramilitary symbols on the street.
:37:55. > :37:57.I represent everyone. I represent a new face of Northern Ireland in
:37:58. > :38:01.Europe and I will be the best ambassador for Northern Ireland, to
:38:02. > :38:05.show the diversity in Northern Ireland. Apart from picking three
:38:06. > :38:10.MEPs, Northern Ireland's voters will choose who they want to sit on 11
:38:11. > :38:14.new district councils. The newly elected councillors will spend their
:38:15. > :38:17.first few months deciding where their headquarters should be and
:38:18. > :38:22.which flag, if any, should flutter over their buildings. Given the
:38:23. > :38:26.recent history at Belfast City Hall, that is something that could prove
:38:27. > :38:31.far from straightforward. That was Mark Davenport from Belfast.
:38:32. > :38:34.Northern Ireland is a micro-political system all of its
:38:35. > :38:39.own. When you do general election polling, do you do Northern Ireland?
:38:40. > :38:45.We don't, because it doesn't have much impact on what happens in
:38:46. > :38:48.Westminster. So we do opinion polls for Northern Ireland on what happens
:38:49. > :38:56.in Northern Ireland. It is so different what happens -- from what
:38:57. > :39:00.happens in the rest of the country. We will make some automatic
:39:01. > :39:02.assumptions and put it into the mix. But at another close election, we
:39:03. > :39:08.might have another look. OK. Adam's still there with more
:39:09. > :39:21.candidates for the European Hi. We are up here on the terrace of
:39:22. > :39:25.the brand-new library. It is very peaceful. Let's ruin that! Anybody
:39:26. > :39:28.the brand-new library. It is very excited about the European
:39:29. > :39:34.elections? European elections?! A blinding response! Other candidates
:39:35. > :39:41.standing here in the West Midlands, we have Nina Gale of Labour, and
:39:42. > :39:46.Philip... Phil Benyon. And Will Duckworth of the Green Party. I went
:39:47. > :39:50.out speaking to people in Birmingham yesterday. They mentioned Nigel
:39:51. > :39:56.Farage and David Cameron but nobody mentioned Ed Miliband. I was with Ed
:39:57. > :40:00.Miliband on Monday in Walsall. 500 people there, a huge audience, and
:40:01. > :40:05.people I have spoken to on the doorstep, they resonate with what Ed
:40:06. > :40:10.is saying on the cost of living crisis and where we need to go, so,
:40:11. > :40:15.you know, I don't know who you were speaking to, but certainly on the
:40:16. > :40:19.doorstep, I get a really positive message about what Ed Miliband is
:40:20. > :40:23.saying and what we need to do to put this country back into work. The
:40:24. > :40:28.message that people are concerned about is jobs, jobs, jobs. That's
:40:29. > :40:32.what they want from Europe and a government. We are in a region where
:40:33. > :40:36.we have the third-highest unemployment, so we really must
:40:37. > :40:42.address this issue straightaway. And that is what Labour and MEPs in
:40:43. > :40:46.Parliament have been doing and it is what Labour will do when we are in
:40:47. > :40:51.government. Have you met anybody on the doorstep who can explain Ed
:40:52. > :40:56.Miliband's position on a referendum in Europe? I think most people are
:40:57. > :41:01.not that concerned about Europe. Unfortunately! I have to admit that.
:41:02. > :41:07.Most people are saying, what does it mean for us? Do we need a referendum
:41:08. > :41:11.now? Not everybody thinks we need a referendum. They are feeling more
:41:12. > :41:15.concerned about how they are feeling squeezed in living, how they are
:41:16. > :41:18.feeling in relation to their health services at the moment. But our
:41:19. > :41:23.position is quite clear on the referendum. That if there is a new
:41:24. > :41:27.transfer of powers, we will hold a referendum. But we are not reckless.
:41:28. > :41:35.We don't need to hold a referendum just because, like David Cameron, we
:41:36. > :41:39.weak, and he has promised a referendum when there is no need to
:41:40. > :41:44.have one at this time. Why have a referendum now? And today, we have
:41:45. > :41:51.heard from the CBI... We will leave that there. When people answer the
:41:52. > :41:58.door, do they say, hurray, it is the man of the party of in? People are
:41:59. > :42:02.surprisingly friendly on the doorsteps. Obviously you have people
:42:03. > :42:05.who will be voting for UKIP but most people where we are knocking on the
:42:06. > :42:11.doors, they are very worried about jobs, as Nina says, and they are
:42:12. > :42:15.very worried also about environmental issues. What we have
:42:16. > :42:19.been doing in the European Union, we have not only been pushing the
:42:20. > :42:24.environmental agenda forward at a pace the economy can stand, but we
:42:25. > :42:27.have also been addressing the employment problem, particularly
:42:28. > :42:32.youth unemployment. We in the Liberal Democrats are a positive,
:42:33. > :42:36.pro-European, internationalist party that is pro-business as well as
:42:37. > :42:41.being green, and I think nobody else can claim that. With the jobs issue,
:42:42. > :42:45.I have been working on issues around apprenticeships. I go around the
:42:46. > :42:49.region trying to persuade small businesses, medium-size businesses
:42:50. > :42:57.to start apprenticeship schemes and we are getting some success. This is
:42:58. > :43:01.why unemployment is down to 6.8%. If you do really badly in these
:43:02. > :43:07.elections, will you be on the phone the next day to Nick Clegg saying,
:43:08. > :43:10.you must sort this out? I personally won't be but others will.
:43:11. > :43:15.you must sort this out? I personally they will? We won't be making any
:43:16. > :43:19.changes before the 2015 elections. We have a long time before then. I
:43:20. > :43:22.think we will have a reasonably good election, better than most people
:43:23. > :43:26.think. Certainly on the doorsteps it election, better than most people
:43:27. > :43:32.is better than in the polls. We will see when we get the results on
:43:33. > :43:36.Sunday. Why is it that when you meet loads of Green MEPs from other
:43:37. > :43:41.countries, you don't meet many from Great Britain? It takes a while for
:43:42. > :43:45.the general population to realise this is a proportional
:43:46. > :43:49.representation system and we can get people in. We already have MEPs in
:43:50. > :43:53.the south-east of London. We have a real chance in the south-west, the
:43:54. > :43:57.East, the north-west regions as well as here and there is a real chance
:43:58. > :44:03.we are overtaking the Lib Dems in many of the opinion polls. There is
:44:04. > :44:06.a real Eurosceptic mood around and people are concerned with those top
:44:07. > :44:14.issues people ask about but you want to be more generous in benefits to
:44:15. > :44:18.migrants? At the moment if you are trying to live on jobseeker's
:44:19. > :44:24.allowance, it is practically. People have tried it and it is practically
:44:25. > :44:28.impossible. We are demonising the poor and the unhealthy in this
:44:29. > :44:32.country quite unfairly. The vast majority of people who come over do
:44:33. > :44:37.not come for benefits. They come to work. And they are a vital resource.
:44:38. > :44:40.We need them. We should not just tolerate them but respect and
:44:41. > :44:45.appreciate the things they bring to this country. A quick final
:44:46. > :44:49.question. We are in this beautiful new library. What is your favourite
:44:50. > :44:59.political book? My favourite political book is probably... 1984.
:45:00. > :45:09.What does that say! Not because what I like what it says but because The
:45:10. > :45:14.Prince is quite exciting. I was going to say that, too! I have seen
:45:15. > :45:23.that! The last book I borrowed from a library was War And Peace. Are you
:45:24. > :45:29.still reading it? Did you get to the end? Yes, I did. Enjoy your last day
:45:30. > :45:32.of campaigning and being on the terrace. You can get all the
:45:33. > :45:38.candidates for this part of the world on the BBC News website. Back
:45:39. > :45:41.to you, Andrew. Thank you for that. We will have a
:45:42. > :45:45.test later to see if they have read any of these books.
:45:46. > :45:47.We've talked on the show before about how long
:45:48. > :45:53.and complicated the ballot papers for these elections are.
:45:54. > :45:54.127 candidates representing 17 different parties.
:45:55. > :45:57.And you get another ballot paper for local elections and
:45:58. > :46:17.Anthony Reubens is the BBC's head of statistics and he's here to tell
:46:18. > :46:28.Do people pick names that will get them high up the ballot paper? Well,
:46:29. > :46:32.I have not heard of anyone changing their name but there was a
:46:33. > :46:38.I have not heard of anyone changing done by some academics of all the
:46:39. > :46:41.local elections from 1973, and they suggested anecdotally
:46:42. > :46:44.local elections from 1973, and they effect was so big that some parties
:46:45. > :46:48.were favouring candidates with names higher up the alphabet and were
:46:49. > :46:54.choosing candidates raised on their names being higher up than their
:46:55. > :47:11.opponents. There was one interesting example at the moment. There was a
:47:12. > :47:18.party running in the election Independence From Europe. I suppose
:47:19. > :47:25.it gets Independence From Europe. I suppose
:47:26. > :47:29.alphabetically by surname. In European elections it is
:47:30. > :47:30.alphabetically by surname. In party name. This is a trick done
:47:31. > :47:31.before by Alex party name. This is a trick done
:47:32. > :47:47.The S M P changed its name to party name. This is a trick done
:47:48. > :47:49.Salmond. -- SMP. This is what academics call low information
:47:50. > :47:54.elections as we were finding out from Birmingham earlier stop it is
:47:55. > :47:57.where people cannot be bothered to find out about the candidates of the
:47:58. > :48:02.system of voting, so in elections where you are allowed more than one
:48:03. > :48:08.vote, people often only take one vote anyway, and it is the
:48:09. > :48:16.candidates higher up in the alphabet you will get those votes. I think we
:48:17. > :48:21.can show a ballot paper on screen. There it is on screen right now. In
:48:22. > :48:26.the local elections, you are voting for an individual, but in the
:48:27. > :48:31.European election, the party have chosen the candidates, and you are
:48:32. > :48:41.voting for the party. The higher up the person is on the party list, the
:48:42. > :48:52.more likely you are to choose them. If you are an individual, it is salt
:48:53. > :48:56.'s law. I think this is something we should all be feeling strongly
:48:57. > :49:02.about. Do you feel this cremated against? I do have a friend who is
:49:03. > :49:06.standing in local elections and he feels discriminated against. There
:49:07. > :49:09.is a consultation going on in Scotland on this subject, and I
:49:10. > :49:13.spoke to the electoral commission this morning and they are watching
:49:14. > :49:18.carefully the result of this! In Australia, in parts of Tasmania,
:49:19. > :49:25.they have a random system where they print many different ballot papers.
:49:26. > :49:31.The order bias is well known so when we ask you to choose from a list, we
:49:32. > :49:37.would randomise it because of the bias. We can see it systematically.
:49:38. > :49:48.It is real, it does exist. Order bias? Yes. Can you take account of
:49:49. > :49:53.this in the polling? To be honest, I am not sure. It is marginal and
:49:54. > :49:59.where you have two candidates in a local election and there are three
:50:00. > :50:02.candidates from one party, the ones that hour the top of the list are
:50:03. > :50:09.more likely get chosen because you know so little about them. Whether
:50:10. > :50:17.it gets you to switch from party to party, the trick that was played in
:50:18. > :50:26.1994 by the Literal Democrats, that has been outlawed. They changed the
:50:27. > :50:27.law. Yes. You learn things on these programmes. Wacky for being with
:50:28. > :50:33.us. -- thank you for being with us. So it's a long ballot paper
:50:34. > :50:37.and that's because there are plenty of smaller new parties in addition
:50:38. > :50:41.to the big established lot. Earlier Giles spoke to two
:50:42. > :50:44.of them out on college green in And he's still there with
:50:45. > :50:58.the final two of the campaign. Andrew, we thought we would keep it
:50:59. > :51:05.simple for this bit, keep it light and easy with a feeling of
:51:06. > :51:11.well-being. We have the He's Party. John Morris, the Peace Party, I
:51:12. > :51:19.cannot think of any other parties that for war, what is unique?
:51:20. > :51:25.Unfortunately, all the other parties we have found have tucked away in
:51:26. > :51:32.their manifestoes that we must defend ourselves in some way, and
:51:33. > :51:36.that means bombs, weapons, aircraft. Does it mean scrapping the Ministry
:51:37. > :51:40.of Defence, that sort of thing? Absolutely, eventually. It will
:51:41. > :51:46.obviously take a long time because we have to convince people and
:51:47. > :51:53.convert people to work nonviolently together. You see the agency for all
:51:54. > :52:07.of this as the EU. You think they are the engine for promotion of
:52:08. > :52:10.peace rest are yes. --? Yes. It was set up for peaceful reasons and
:52:11. > :52:16.largely, it has done that for 60 years. You have probably seen the
:52:17. > :52:21.small party called UKIP, polling around 30% in the polls. It does not
:52:22. > :52:27.look like the electorate is ready for the EU as party for peace. Are
:52:28. > :52:32.they mistaken? They are missing something very important. Even
:52:33. > :52:39.Winston Churchill was for creating a political union for Europe and that
:52:40. > :52:45.is what I hope we can see as a step towards world peace. In all
:52:46. > :52:49.sincerity, lots of people might be thinking, what a nice worldview, but
:52:50. > :52:55.you know that you are not going to get masses of vote, why do you do
:52:56. > :52:58.it? I could not possibly vote for anybody else and I know there are
:52:59. > :53:00.lots of other people out there ringing the same. There were many
:53:01. > :53:03.people that do not ringing the same. There were many
:53:04. > :53:14.maybe there is a new option. Thank you. We know something about the
:53:15. > :53:20.National Health Action Party. You do what you say on the tin, what are
:53:21. > :53:26.you all about? We are funded by doctors, health workers and ordinary
:53:27. > :53:34.people. We are concerned about what is happening to the NHS, the
:53:35. > :53:39.top-down reorganisation. If we do not pay for it, if it is free at the
:53:40. > :53:45.point of delivery, the state is paying, is it privatisation or have
:53:46. > :53:49.we missed something? The definition of privatisation is when public
:53:50. > :53:54.services are handed over to private companies for profit. It is the
:53:55. > :54:02.World Health Organisation's definition. You are standing at the
:54:03. > :54:09.party. Labour have said they will repeal the act, should you vote for
:54:10. > :54:12.them? Labour have said they would not get rid of the privatisation
:54:13. > :54:18.that has happened and has not rejected the idea of a market within
:54:19. > :54:23.the NHS. They have not talked about PFI which is sapping billions out of
:54:24. > :54:29.hospitals. There is a long way to go before we can trust
:54:30. > :54:32.hospitals. There is a long way to go to the rescue of the NHS. We had the
:54:33. > :54:35.National Liberal Party, they are all to be found on the ballot papers, it
:54:36. > :54:40.is up to you to decide. Our guest of the day here Ben Page
:54:41. > :54:44.knows a thing or two And when it comes to elections he'll
:54:45. > :54:50.have a stab at predicting how Occasionally,
:54:51. > :54:53.he might even get it right. But in general he prefers to talk
:54:54. > :54:56.about trends rather than coming off the fence and telling us
:54:57. > :55:00.exactly what's going to happen. For that we've decided to turn to
:55:01. > :55:02.one of civilisation's oldest scholarly
:55:03. > :55:04.traditions ? yes, it's astrology. And to gaze into the political stars
:55:05. > :55:15.we're joined by Debbie Frank. Welcome to the programme. So, what
:55:16. > :55:20.do the stars foretell for Mr Cameron? He is a very slick and
:55:21. > :55:24.charming person, and he has that going for him but he is in a bit of
:55:25. > :55:30.a kick at the moment, under pressure. That comes from Nigel, the
:55:31. > :55:35.polar opposite to him, he is an Aries. His job is to shake
:55:36. > :55:41.everything up which he will continue to do until the next election in
:55:42. > :55:52.2015. Nigel is somebody who is outspoken, individual, and every
:55:53. > :55:58.settlement that happens with him is a positive thing. What about Ed
:55:59. > :56:06.Miliband? He is. He has Neptune on his Mars. He is in a state of
:56:07. > :56:10.bewilderment. It sounds painful! I advised him to do another
:56:11. > :56:13.supermarket shop because he is losing the plot. I think he might be
:56:14. > :56:19.happy about what is going on in the European election, temporarily, but
:56:20. > :56:23.his long-term stars show that he is losing grip a little bit and needs
:56:24. > :56:30.to stay focused. Another Capricorn, Nick Clegg. He looks like he's going
:56:31. > :56:36.to be a little with the result. It is interesting when you look at his
:56:37. > :56:41.chart. He is very connected with David Cameron and he wishes he was
:56:42. > :56:45.David Cameron. His chart is about having a strong wife, and his
:56:46. > :56:54.political life might change considerably. What about the leader
:56:55. > :57:06.of the Green Party? She is an Aquarius. She is of the people, and
:57:07. > :57:10.humanitarian. She is under pressure at the moment. Nigel is stealing her
:57:11. > :57:15.fire a little bit, but she is definitely the right person for the
:57:16. > :57:20.job. Natalie is doing what she was born to do, a great leader for the
:57:21. > :57:26.Green Party. On the European elections, who is going to come
:57:27. > :57:29.first? Nigel is going to have a big swing up here. He is totally front
:57:30. > :57:35.of House, basically. swing up here. He is totally front
:57:36. > :57:39.despite his little mishap, he swing up here. He is totally front
:57:40. > :57:41.going to be pretty happy. David Cameron is going
:57:42. > :57:47.going to be pretty happy. David and then he is going to come right
:57:48. > :57:50.back up in July. There you go, no caveats. What you say to that? The
:57:51. > :57:52.statistics tell caveats. What you say to that? The
:57:53. > :57:56.to call! That is caveats. What you say to that? The
:57:57. > :58:03.is boring but sometimes they are. caveats. What you say to that? The
:58:04. > :58:09.There is something called caveats. What you say to that? The
:58:10. > :58:14.all test. -- football. There was a 90% accuracy between the colour of
:58:15. > :58:18.the winners of the FA Cup and who actually wins. 95% of the time, it
:58:19. > :58:23.has been right since been Second has been right since been Second
:58:24. > :58:28.World War. It is my birthday today, what do the stars say about me?
:58:29. > :58:44.World War. It is my birthday today, are a tourist. -- Taures. It is all
:58:45. > :58:47.lovely. That is it for today, thank you to all our guests.
:58:48. > :58:50.The One O'clock News is starting over on BBC One now.
:58:51. > :58:53.Jo will be back here at noon tomorrow, election day,