:00:36. > :00:42.Jeremy Corbyn says he's not keen on war but today he's locked in battle
:00:43. > :00:48.The Labour leader says he won't back David Cameron's plan to bomb
:00:49. > :00:54.At least half the Shadow Cabinet and many Labour MPs are now in open
:00:55. > :00:58.Two have even suggested, on the record,
:00:59. > :01:04.We'll have the latest in this developing row.
:01:05. > :01:07.Whatever Labour formally decides, there is likely a majority of MPs
:01:08. > :01:13.in favour of extending RAF airstrikes from Iraq to Syria.
:01:14. > :01:17.I'm against the air strikes generally simply
:01:18. > :01:20.because I think it will encourage more terrorism in this country.
:01:21. > :01:23.It only takes a few of them to get in and
:01:24. > :01:34.Turns out there was an extra 27 billion quid
:01:35. > :01:37.down the back of a Treasury sofa, allowing George Osborne to U-turn
:01:38. > :01:49.We speak to the independent number cruncher who found the money.
:01:50. > :01:59.A slightly curtailed programme today due to the Davis Cup tennis.
:02:00. > :02:03.But with us today is the columnist and broadcaster Jenni Russell.
:02:04. > :02:06.Jeremy Corbyn is fighting to contain a Shadow Cabinet rebellion today
:02:07. > :02:11.after he said he told MPs he could not support RAF airstrikes
:02:12. > :02:16.Yesterday, the Shadow Cabinet tried to come up
:02:17. > :02:21.with an agreed response to David Cameron's plan to deal with IS.
:02:22. > :02:23.They failed but agreed to meet again on Monday
:02:24. > :02:28.But divisions within Labour's top team spilled out in to the open
:02:29. > :02:31.when Mr Corbyn wrote to all his MPs saying he would not back the
:02:32. > :02:37.The Labour leader had omitted to tell the Shadow Cabinet he
:02:38. > :02:41.Several Labour frontbenchers are muttering about resigning
:02:42. > :02:44.if the leader orders his Shadow Cabinet to fall in line.
:02:45. > :02:47.This morning two Labour MPs even suggested Mr Corbyn should resign
:02:48. > :02:55.A free vote would seem the only way out of the mess.
:02:56. > :02:58.But Shadow Development Secretary Diane Abbott, says MPs need to get
:02:59. > :03:04.It's not for me to say whether there will be a free vote.
:03:05. > :03:07.Jeremy has made his position clear, as is appropriate as leader
:03:08. > :03:10.of the party and I think, in the end, party members will want
:03:11. > :03:14.MPs to unite behind the leader, because what Jeremy is saying
:03:15. > :03:18.about Syrian bombing is what party members are saying.
:03:19. > :03:20.Joining me now is the Labour MP Jim Fitzpatrick.
:03:21. > :03:23.He was a minister under Gordon Brown.
:03:24. > :03:26.And James Schneider is spokesman for Momentum, the campaign group closely
:03:27. > :03:30.They are urging their members to lobby Labour MPs to oppose British
:03:31. > :03:49.Welcome to you both. You listen to the Prime Minister yesterday. What
:03:50. > :03:52.broad conclusion did you come to? Do you broadly support him? I think I'm
:03:53. > :03:57.inclined to support the government depending on the motion. I want to
:03:58. > :04:00.see what the Shadow Cabinet recommend and the parliamentary
:04:01. > :04:04.Labour Party discussion overnight will say, but the Prime Minister
:04:05. > :04:07.clearly indicated he had listened to the previous defeat, had learned a
:04:08. > :04:13.lesson post-Iraq and set out a 7-point plan which tended to respond
:04:14. > :04:17.to the concerns that people have been racing about extending the
:04:18. > :04:23.action from that in Iraq across the border into Syria. What do you say
:04:24. > :04:28.to that, James? I don't think the case has been made, I don't think
:04:29. > :04:32.the case has been made, there were four conditions which needed to be
:04:33. > :04:34.met which was passed in the most recent Labour Party conference and I
:04:35. > :04:39.think the membership is overwhelmingly opposed to bombing
:04:40. > :04:41.and I think Jeremy Corbyn are showing very strong leadership on
:04:42. > :04:46.this by saying quite clearly what he thinks. Is there anything the Prime
:04:47. > :04:53.Minister could have said? To convince you? I can't see how things
:04:54. > :04:58.David Cameron would've said, given what he said in the past about
:04:59. > :05:03.Syria, I think, ways in which we could be acting more robustly in
:05:04. > :05:06.Syria, but that would require certain preconditions which are very
:05:07. > :05:12.much not been met, so we did a conference plan deal with the
:05:13. > :05:15.refugees, the only military action needs to be subordinated to regional
:05:16. > :05:20.diplomatic efforts to come up with some kind of... But these already
:05:21. > :05:26.underway. Military action is not underway. It has not been
:05:27. > :05:30.subordinated to that process. No, but diplomatic action is already
:05:31. > :05:33.underway and everything we know, although they have not fallen apart,
:05:34. > :05:38.it would take a long time for this diplomatic action to bear fruit.
:05:39. > :05:42.Meanwhile, we know the intelligence services who met the Shadow Cabinet
:05:43. > :05:44.on Wednesday night, ISR planning terrorist attacks in the West
:05:45. > :05:46.including in terrorist attacks in the West
:05:47. > :05:51.will we do in the interim as a terrorist attacks in the West
:05:52. > :05:55.for diplomatic progress? But the case for additional bombing in
:05:56. > :05:58.Syria, that will prevent Isis attacks and
:05:59. > :05:59.Syria, that will prevent Isis what should we do in the interim
:06:00. > :06:05.given that we what should we do in the interim
:06:06. > :06:08.security services to avoid attacks here. With Paris, they were planned
:06:09. > :06:15.and organised. here. With Paris, they were planned
:06:16. > :06:23.want to abolish that? No, he does not. He signed a petition in April.
:06:24. > :06:25.No he didn't. He may have signed. I don't read the details. He may have
:06:26. > :06:29.signed a manifesto which don't read the details. He may have
:06:30. > :06:33.one line out of very many lines. don't read the details. He may have
:06:34. > :06:37.Politicians, you sign manifestos but you don't agree with every single
:06:38. > :06:43.line on it. He held this document up in front of a camera. I can't
:06:44. > :06:50.respond to John McDonald. I'm sorry. You voted against air strikes in
:06:51. > :06:55.2013. I did because the proposition was to bomb President Assad and I
:06:56. > :07:00.felt the experience of Iraq, we took out Saddam Hussein, there was no
:07:01. > :07:02.felt the experience of Iraq, we took post-conflict plan, we crated a
:07:03. > :07:07.vacuum and extremists moved into that vacuum. I think it is certainly
:07:08. > :07:13.vacuum and extremists moved into part of the strategy which it wasn't
:07:14. > :07:15.in 2013 and had we taken out President Assad, IS would've filled
:07:16. > :07:20.it in. Now the world has moved on, we have peace talks in Vienna, the
:07:21. > :07:25.recent atrocities in Paris and Tunisia, Iran and Russia and Saudi
:07:26. > :07:31.Arabia and around the table in Vienna for the first time. There's a
:07:32. > :07:33.different set of circumstances. ISR still growing, subjugating the
:07:34. > :07:40.Muslim community in the territory they held, throwing gay people off
:07:41. > :07:44.the roofs of tall buildings, beheading people, and we have 5
:07:45. > :07:50.million Syrian refugees as a result. We have to do something to contain
:07:51. > :07:54.IS and address this issue. Let me look at the Labour Party 's response
:07:55. > :07:59.to this. There was a long Shadow Cabinet discussion yesterday. It
:08:00. > :08:02.didn't come to an agreement. The agreement would be that they would
:08:03. > :08:10.meet again on Monday and mull things over. Why did Jeremy Corbyn without
:08:11. > :08:13.telling the Shadow Cabinet right to MPs pre-empting discussions by
:08:14. > :08:17.saying he's against it. He's entirely entitled to lead his
:08:18. > :08:20.position as leader of the party in the same way as other members of the
:08:21. > :08:27.Shadow Cabinet. But why didn't you tell a Shadow Cabinet? Until they
:08:28. > :08:32.discovered Jeremy Corbyn in this letter, they could not express their
:08:33. > :08:35.own opinions. Why did he not tell a Shadow Cabinet that that is what he
:08:36. > :08:39.was doing at the Shadow Cabinet meeting? No shadow minister knew
:08:40. > :08:43.that was what was going to do. As Hilary Benn said this morning,
:08:44. > :08:47.Jeremy is elected as leader on overwhelming majority. He is
:08:48. > :08:54.entitled to make his opinion very clear. But why did you not tell a
:08:55. > :09:00.Shadow Cabinet? I don't know what goes on in Shadow Cabinet. You seem
:09:01. > :09:08.quite well-informed. I don't know what goes on in Shadow Cabinet at
:09:09. > :09:11.all. But he is entirely right to show leadership and shows the
:09:12. > :09:18.position is going to take. I'm not arguing with you about that. Do you
:09:19. > :09:21.expect to be heavily lobbied by momentum this weekend to vote
:09:22. > :09:28.against the government? Yes. How would you respond? As I have been
:09:29. > :09:33.doing so, by individually e-mailing my constituents and expressing an
:09:34. > :09:36.opinion to them, to be honest, but I'm inclined to support the
:09:37. > :09:42.government, the game plan yesterday was a Shadow Cabinet was most to me
:09:43. > :09:44.to consult over the weekend their constituencies and reflect on the
:09:45. > :09:51.prime ministers statement and the evidence and come back on Monday to
:09:52. > :09:54.make a decision and a recommendation. Jeremy clearly, I
:09:55. > :10:00.think when they arrive in the chamber, body language indicated he
:10:01. > :10:03.is opposed and was not going to support it. He tested the Shadow
:10:04. > :10:08.Cabinet and the majority are opposed to him so therefore he's going above
:10:09. > :10:11.their heads to use his momentum to put pressure on MPs and Shadow
:10:12. > :10:15.Cabinet members so when he recalls the saddle Cabinet on Monday, maybe
:10:16. > :10:19.some of them will have changed their mind. If they don't, the only place
:10:20. > :10:24.you can go is a free vote. If momentum members discover the
:10:25. > :10:27.majority in the parliament to Labour Party constituents are against
:10:28. > :10:32.bombing, they are faced with a member like this, who is going to
:10:33. > :10:37.vote with the government and abstain on the issue at least, what should
:10:38. > :10:44.happen to these MPs? Exactly as Jim said, they should respond to each
:10:45. > :10:50.position, and there's a normal debatable for the snow threat
:10:51. > :10:54.implied by Google writing to an MP to express an interest. You don't
:10:55. > :10:59.think it MPs defy Mr Corbyn on this issue, they should face calls for
:11:00. > :11:05.deselection? No I do not think so. They should vote on their
:11:06. > :11:10.conscience? Yes, there should be no deselection. There will be no
:11:11. > :11:14.deselection of MPs on this issue. You are smiling. There's always a
:11:15. > :11:17.minority in any constituency party disagree with their candidate and
:11:18. > :11:22.who will want to deselect him. I think there's a real chance now they
:11:23. > :11:25.will be an orchestrated attempt to deselect MPs and with a boundary
:11:26. > :11:30.changes the government are proposing for the next Parliament, there will
:11:31. > :11:33.be a lot of contests created as a result of geographical changes so a
:11:34. > :11:39.number of MPs I think will face a challenge. I don't see any way out
:11:40. > :11:44.of this for Labour. Except a free vote. Do you? I think every thing
:11:45. > :11:47.else is impossible, there's no possibility members of the Shadow
:11:48. > :11:52.Cabinet to our prepared to support air strikes are going to change
:11:53. > :11:55.their minds over the weekend. The problem for Jeremy Corbyn is the
:11:56. > :11:58.British public thinks there is no circumstance whatsoever he would
:11:59. > :12:01.ever back any kind of military action. We know he would ever back
:12:02. > :12:04.any kind of military action. We know his opposed military action over 30
:12:05. > :12:08.years and has already said he's against it in this situation, which
:12:09. > :12:11.may well be the right thing to believe, but the problem is he does
:12:12. > :12:16.not look like the leader who would ever agree in any circumstance. He's
:12:17. > :12:24.not going to change his mind and a Shadow Cabinet about change theirs.
:12:25. > :12:29.He's never supported the action against the IRA, the Falklands,
:12:30. > :12:35.Kosovo, he was against that. It's a default position. I don't understand
:12:36. > :12:38.why it's a great show of strong, courageous leadership to stick to
:12:39. > :12:42.your guns and go, yes, we're going to have a war, it's somehow a
:12:43. > :12:47.failure bishop not stepping up to it. If you just say clearly, watch
:12:48. > :12:51.opposition is... That wasn't Jenny 's point. There's no point having a
:12:52. > :12:56.debate with Mr Corbyn because he's always opposed any kind of military
:12:57. > :13:00.action which involves the West. At Labour Party conference, it was
:13:01. > :13:02.voted through by the delegates at conference, the conditions that
:13:03. > :13:07.would need to be met and those conditions have not been met. All
:13:08. > :13:13.right. Are you in favour of a free vote? Momentum does not have a
:13:14. > :13:16.position on it and it's not for me to say full setup to Jeremy and the
:13:17. > :13:23.Shadow Cabinet. I don't want to second-guess it. Does the cabinet
:13:24. > :13:27.take place before the Shadow MP? Yes. He would have to say of the PLP
:13:28. > :13:33.what he agreed position as or they would be an agreement? Jeremy will
:13:34. > :13:35.be reporting to them at 6pm on Monday and telling as the
:13:36. > :13:41.recommendation which will then be discussed among the PLP but, yes,
:13:42. > :13:46.Shadow Cabinet will come to one imagines a conclusion before the
:13:47. > :13:47.PLP. You had better order in the popcorn. Gentlemen, thank you very
:13:48. > :13:48.much. So, the Prime Minister laid out
:13:49. > :13:51.his comprehensive plan yesterday to take the fight to so-called
:13:52. > :13:53.Islamic State in Syria. The Prime Minister might have
:13:54. > :13:56.convinced MPs We've been watching in the House
:13:57. > :14:04.of Commons whose decision it is, mood-changing possible
:14:05. > :14:07.mind-changing, on whether we should But what do people
:14:08. > :14:13.outside think about it? I'm against
:14:14. > :14:15.the air strikes generally simply because I think it will encourage
:14:16. > :14:18.more terrorism in this country. Isil is an enormous problem but I
:14:19. > :14:21.don't believe this is I think we should, to be honest,
:14:22. > :14:25.yeah. I really do because of everything
:14:26. > :14:28.that's going on at the moment. It only takes a few
:14:29. > :14:30.of them to get in and So I agree with it, yeah, I really
:14:31. > :14:36.do. I'd want to know for
:14:37. > :14:39.a start precisely what the objective was of these strikes, who they were
:14:40. > :14:42.aimed at, and what the endgame was. They've got to be stopped but then
:14:43. > :14:45.there's the civilian casualties as well to take into consideration,
:14:46. > :14:49.so it's a very difficult call. I wouldn't like to be voting
:14:50. > :14:51.on that myself. We're watching other people do it,
:14:52. > :14:53.and obviously our allies are doing it, so maybe we
:14:54. > :14:57.should get involved as well. At the same time,
:14:58. > :15:05.they're really bad people. And I think, in order
:15:06. > :15:10.for the bad people to succeed, it's You should be involved
:15:11. > :15:25.because they are troubling The whole world has been troubled
:15:26. > :15:32.by them. I think it's
:15:33. > :15:39.a very unclear situation. I think there's a lot of countries
:15:40. > :15:42.that are already involved and it's very difficult to understand
:15:43. > :15:44.the impact that we would have in Peter Kellner is the President
:15:45. > :16:01.of the polling organisation YouGov. Welcome back to the programme,
:16:02. > :16:09.Peter. Let's begin with the changing mood of public opinion in the round.
:16:10. > :16:14.What is now the majority British view in extending our bombing to
:16:15. > :16:17.Syria? It is exactly the opposite to what it was two years ago before the
:16:18. > :16:23.Government's defeat. Then we found at YouGov, 2-to-1, the public were
:16:24. > :16:27.opposed to air strikes against President Assad, now it is two to
:16:28. > :16:33.one in favour of air strikes against Isil in Syria. And I assume that is
:16:34. > :16:39.Tunisia, Paris, Jihadi John, the rise of Islamic State beheadings and
:16:40. > :16:43.so on? That is right. I think what happened two years ago, it blew up
:16:44. > :16:47.suddenly, if you remember the stories of chemical weapons, it
:16:48. > :16:50.happened in the summer, MPs were on a break and Parliament was recalled
:16:51. > :16:53.and there wasn't the time, either at Westminster or the general public,
:16:54. > :16:58.for the Government to prepare the ground and this time it is well
:16:59. > :17:04.prepared. And do we have data on the attitude of the Labour membership,
:17:05. > :17:08.such as it is in a largely expanded form in the course of Mr Corbyn's
:17:09. > :17:13.leadership election and subsequently? Yes, because we polled
:17:14. > :17:18.in September, when we called Corbyn's victory more or less spot
:17:19. > :17:22.on, and ask them what we think and the Labour Party membership now is
:17:23. > :17:31.strongly against, 2-to-1 against bombing, but Labour voters are two
:17:32. > :17:36.to one in favour of bombing, so you have got out there, in the Labour
:17:37. > :17:37.Party out in the world, this contrast
:17:38. > :17:40.Party out in the world, this has, and remember, it doesn't have
:17:41. > :17:43.enough to form a Government, it will need to win over more people but the
:17:44. > :17:49.Labour membership, they back the need to win over more people but the
:17:50. > :17:53.party leader. So if you are like Jim Fitzpatrick, the MP who we have just
:17:54. > :17:54.had on who is minded to vote with the Government
:17:55. > :18:00.had on who is minded to vote with would argue there is a disconnect by
:18:01. > :18:02.those people who are now Labour activists and the wider
:18:03. > :18:05.those people who are now Labour community, in the sense of people
:18:06. > :18:10.who vote Labour and the country at community, in the sense of people
:18:11. > :18:13.large. There is a clear disconnect and it is not only on this issue, it
:18:14. > :18:14.large. There is a clear disconnect is a whole range of other issues.
:18:15. > :18:19.You find public like, for example, the
:18:20. > :18:19.Government's public like, for example, the
:18:20. > :18:28.like it, on the public like, for example, the
:18:29. > :18:33.nationalisation. The people who voted the Jeremy Corbyn,
:18:34. > :18:38.nationalisation. The people who Party electorate but if there was a
:18:39. > :18:42.new leadership election today, the membership would vote
:18:43. > :18:43.new leadership election today, the but people outside in the country
:18:44. > :18:47.think very differently. But but people outside in the country
:18:48. > :18:52.understand that Labour activists who are very much against the bombing in
:18:53. > :18:57.Syria, they don't want, the data tells us, they don't want Mr Corbyn
:18:58. > :19:01.to try do, to whip the Labour Party into line. They would be
:19:02. > :19:03.to try do, to whip the Labour Party a free vote. He
:19:04. > :19:04.to try do, to whip the Labour Party Dianne Abbott earlier, saying Labour
:19:05. > :19:08.Party members Dianne Abbott earlier, saying Labour
:19:09. > :19:11.Corbyn's position, that is right, but if you are going to
:19:12. > :19:13.Corbyn's position, that is right, line of what Labour Party members
:19:14. > :19:17.want, by an even bigger line of what Labour Party members
:19:18. > :19:24.they oppose bombing, they want a free vote for all MPs to do what
:19:25. > :19:29.they want, 70%. These figures really go to the heart of Labour's dilemma,
:19:30. > :19:31.because we get told all the time by those who elected Mr Corbyn and that
:19:32. > :19:36.he won by 60%, let him get those who elected Mr Corbyn and that
:19:37. > :19:39.it, and there is huge Democratic those who elected Mr Corbyn and that
:19:40. > :19:43.logic in that. The problem is the people who elected Mr Corbyn would
:19:44. > :19:45.seem not to be that representative not only of the country
:19:46. > :19:49.seem not to be that representative but of the 9 million people who
:19:50. > :19:54.voted Labour at the last election. That is right, that is why Labour is
:19:55. > :19:56.in so much difficulty, and polling 27%. The Tories have a 15 point
:19:57. > :20:00.lead. 27%. The Tories have a 15 point
:20:01. > :20:03.legitimately got a feeling they are responsible to the people who
:20:04. > :20:08.elected them in May, they have a personal mandate from their voters
:20:09. > :20:14.and four Corbyn to say my mandate from this very small number of
:20:15. > :20:16.people, 300 - 400,000 people there in the Labour Party trumps your
:20:17. > :20:23.responsibility to the 9 million people who voted Labour just doesn't
:20:24. > :20:31.wash. If it responds entirely to fit a lectureship -- it electorate
:20:32. > :20:35.should, it will be a small party, it needs to respond to the people who
:20:36. > :20:37.voted for it. The Conservatives may well find themselves in the same
:20:38. > :20:39.position over Europe, where the party membership is in a very
:20:40. > :20:45.different place to Conservative voters. It is across the western
:20:46. > :20:49.world, with, on the whole, declining party memberships. Labour's is up on
:20:50. > :20:54.the last few months but way down from what it was 30 or 40 years ago.
:20:55. > :20:57.Increasingly, you get the obsessives, look at the tea party
:20:58. > :21:02.Republicans in the States. It is a problem with parties across the
:21:03. > :21:06.Western world, a disconnection with the activists and the wider
:21:07. > :21:10.electorate in all countries. The answer would be that if everybody
:21:11. > :21:14.who was concerned about the future of the Labour Party now joined it in
:21:15. > :21:21.order to swamp the is, but people would rather stay home and watch TV
:21:22. > :21:24.-- the Corbyn followers. And what is wrong about? It is a wider
:21:25. > :21:25.phenomenon and all the more interesting than that.
:21:26. > :21:28.In his Autumn Statement and Spending Review delivered on Wednesday,
:21:29. > :21:40.not just to pull a rabbit out of the hat, but a rabbit worth ?27 billion.
:21:41. > :21:42.He announced that the Office for Budget Responsibility's forecasts
:21:43. > :21:44.for the public finances showed a significant improvement
:21:45. > :21:46.compared to their previous assessment in July.
:21:47. > :21:48.The surprise extra money comes from a combination
:21:49. > :21:58.and lower interest payments on the nation's debt.
:21:59. > :22:02.Because interest rates are going to stay low for the foreseeable future.
:22:03. > :22:06.VAT is now expected to magic up an extra ?11.5 billion by 2020-21
:22:07. > :22:10.after the OBR decided its previous forecasts were too pessimistic.
:22:11. > :22:16.The Government also expects to get more money
:22:17. > :22:20.from National Insurance Contributions and Corporation Tax.
:22:21. > :22:24.So the Chancellor is set to borrow ?8 billion less
:22:25. > :22:31.over the next five years than he planned to in July,
:22:32. > :22:33.over the next five years than he planned to in July.
:22:34. > :22:36.Despite waving his magic wand to increase capital spending,
:22:37. > :22:39.reverse cuts to tax credits and protect the overall police budget,
:22:40. > :22:44.Add to defence, almost everything that moved, he is able to spend
:22:45. > :22:45.more. And I'm joined now by the man who
:22:46. > :22:48.found all that extra cash Chairman of the Office for
:22:49. > :23:00.Budget Responsiblity, Robert Chote. When did you discover that there was
:23:01. > :23:06.more than we thought? Well, gradually over the period running up
:23:07. > :23:09.to the forecast. The largest single contributor to this ?27 billion,
:23:10. > :23:13.which we should remember is just a quarter of 1% of GDP, it doesn't go
:23:14. > :23:19.as far as we used to -- it used to when we were young, is lower debt
:23:20. > :23:22.interest. Because the bank said lower interest rates for the
:23:23. > :23:26.foreseeable future, it doesn't cost much to service our debt? That is
:23:27. > :23:29.part of it and simply, the rates on the financial market at which the
:23:30. > :23:34.Government can borrow are lower than they were in July, so all you need
:23:35. > :23:38.Reuters screen and an abacus to know that but it was apparent everybody
:23:39. > :23:41.as we went along. The Bank of England thing would have been harder
:23:42. > :23:45.for people to calculate in advance. But you have adjusted your model as
:23:46. > :23:47.well, the model you use for forecasting tax revenues
:23:48. > :23:53.underestimated what tax revenues would be? In a couple of areas. On
:23:54. > :24:01.the VAT one, these are both situations in which the models were
:24:02. > :24:05.being used before the OBR existed. The one for VAT in particular, as
:24:06. > :24:10.the public spending cuts have mounted, that has started to show us
:24:11. > :24:14.over estimating the amount that is deducted from VAT because of the
:24:15. > :24:18.flows within Government, so that becomes apparent, so we flagged that
:24:19. > :24:24.in October and said it was likely to improve the position by about ?3
:24:25. > :24:28.billion at the end of the forecast. But did you adjust your projections
:24:29. > :24:34.for tax revenues without knowing what was happening to tax revenues
:24:35. > :24:38.in this financial year in particular? Because of weak tax
:24:39. > :24:46.revenues, the deficit in October was the worst since 2009. Yes, we don't
:24:47. > :24:49.get prerelease access to the actual release that comes out on the day,
:24:50. > :24:56.but all of the raw material that goes into that from the HMRC, we
:24:57. > :24:59.have most of that, so if we had that release, the forecast wouldn't have
:25:00. > :25:05.looked... It wouldn't have changed, even though the most recent evidence
:25:06. > :25:08.we have, it suggests that even as the economy grows by other two and a
:25:09. > :25:13.half percent this year, the tax revenues have actually been weaker
:25:14. > :25:18.than forecast, you have still adjusted the forecast to have
:25:19. > :25:24.stronger tax revenues on the year is out. You are judging it is weaker on
:25:25. > :25:28.the performance of the year-to-date extrapolating that. There are a
:25:29. > :25:31.number of reasons why we would expect the deficit to four passed at
:25:32. > :25:34.the end of the year than the beginning. For example, there have
:25:35. > :25:40.been measures that will boost self-assessment for tax revenue that
:25:41. > :25:43.will come in in January. There is a change in Stamp Duty which changes
:25:44. > :25:47.the year on year profile which will look better because the Stamp Duty
:25:48. > :25:51.policy came in in December, in the fourth quarter of the year. There
:25:52. > :25:55.are numbers that the Office for National Statistics have said it is
:25:56. > :25:59.going to put into the back data that we have put into the forecast, but
:26:00. > :26:03.they will take time to put it into the back data. There are also the
:26:04. > :26:09.Government announced spending cuts within this year in June which had
:26:10. > :26:11.not yet shown up in the numbers, so for a whole set of those reasons, we
:26:12. > :26:14.think the year-on-year comparison will look better in the fourth
:26:15. > :26:18.quarter of the year than it does in the first three. That said, there is
:26:19. > :26:22.always considerable uncertainty. The average error for forecasting the
:26:23. > :26:27.budget in this part of the year is half a percent of GDP, twice the
:26:28. > :26:31.size of the rabbits you referred to. When did you inform the Chancellor
:26:32. > :26:34.that he had this unexpected windfall? Some of it would have been
:26:35. > :26:40.obvious to anybody looking at the path of interest rates. But when did
:26:41. > :26:45.he realise there would be ?27 billion more in the OBR projections
:26:46. > :26:49.compared with July? As we say in the document, we hand the final
:26:50. > :26:53.pre-measures forecast, ie what would happen if he sat on his hands and
:26:54. > :26:59.did nothing, on November nine. So he had some advanced notice that the
:27:00. > :27:05.fiscal position gave him a bit more wiggle room than he had beforehand?
:27:06. > :27:09.That is right and then the moving parts stopped moving and he had a
:27:10. > :27:14.clearer picture by mid-November. Although this is not a matter to
:27:15. > :27:21.you, are you surprised that he spent most of this 27 billion? I mean, if
:27:22. > :27:25.you were repairing the roof while the Sun was shining, wouldn't you
:27:26. > :27:29.put some of this away for a rainy day? As you say, that is in my
:27:30. > :27:35.judgment to make. He has a target to balance the budget in 2019-20 and on
:27:36. > :27:39.the policies he has announced that the moment, we think he has a margin
:27:40. > :27:43.of about ?10 billion. If you look at the average size and distribution of
:27:44. > :27:48.forecasting errors over the last 25 years or so, that suggest about 55%
:27:49. > :27:52.chance of forecasting errors over the last 25 years or so, that
:27:53. > :27:56.suggest about 55% chance he has to decide how big a cushion he once
:27:57. > :28:02.when setting out spending plans for a number of years. Assuming no
:28:03. > :28:04.external shocks to the economy, which none of us can predict. Lucky,
:28:05. > :28:09.Lucky Chancellor. He is also taking an immense gamble. Robert is a
:28:10. > :28:12.brilliant economist but the one thing that trumps the OBR's
:28:13. > :28:16.projection so far is they have all been optimistic and all been wrong,
:28:17. > :28:22.so for the Chancellor to base all of his spending decisions today on the
:28:23. > :28:26.assumption that in four years' time inflation, growth, jobs and economy
:28:27. > :28:30.and taxation receipts will all be the same as the OBR expect now is
:28:31. > :28:35.fantasy politics. But he will adjusted as he goes on. He will, but
:28:36. > :28:38.he was able to jump out of this hole on the basis of hope. Forecast in
:28:39. > :28:43.the economy is more complicated than forecasting what is -- less
:28:44. > :28:51.complicated than forecasting what is going to happen in Syria, but it is
:28:52. > :28:54.still difficult. Thank you. We will be back on Sunday with a Sunday
:28:55. > :28:58.Politics as the countdown to that Syrian vote gathers pace, 11 o'clock
:28:59. > :29:01.Sunday morning, the by. -- goodbye.