:00:36. > :00:38.Afternoon folks and welcome to the Daily Politics.
:00:39. > :00:45.With enough MPs behind him, David Cameron calls a vote in the Commons
:00:46. > :00:52.Will RAF bombers be in action over Syria by the end of the week?
:00:53. > :00:56.Jeremy Corbyn ties himself and his party in knots over
:00:57. > :01:02.Labour's position on airstrikes - how badly damaged is his authority?
:01:03. > :01:09.And the Labour leader faces his first big electoral test
:01:10. > :01:11.on Thursday in the town that invented fish and chips.
:01:12. > :01:13.Will the party get battered in Oldham?
:01:14. > :01:16.David Cameron joins hundreds of world leaders in Paris to show
:01:17. > :01:19.off their green credentials - but after scrapping environmental
:01:20. > :01:30.All that in the next hour, and with us for the whole
:01:31. > :01:38.of the programme today, the Green Party MP, Caroline Lucas.
:01:39. > :01:45.So we've been bombing Islamic State in Iraq for months.
:01:46. > :01:48.By the end of the week, we are almost certain to be hitting
:01:49. > :01:53.Tomorrow, Prime Minister's Questions has been
:01:54. > :01:56.cancelled and MPs will spend all day debating the issue before voting.
:01:57. > :01:59.David Cameron said he would only call for such a vote
:02:00. > :02:05.That certainty was handed to the PM after a fractious Shadow Cabinet
:02:06. > :02:08.meeting in which Jeremy Corbyn decided to give his MPs
:02:09. > :02:11.a free vote - about 50 of them are expected to support the government.
:02:12. > :02:19.Here's what the Prime Minister had to say last night.
:02:20. > :02:22.I believe there's growing support across Parliament for a compelling
:02:23. > :02:24.case to answer the call from our allies to act
:02:25. > :02:32.The headquarters, in many ways, of the terrorists is in Syria,
:02:33. > :02:36.and it makes no sense to recognise this border in the action we take
:02:37. > :02:40.when Isil themselves don't recognise this border.
:02:41. > :02:45.It's the right thing to do, we will be acting with our allies,
:02:46. > :02:47.we will be careful and responsible as we do so,
:02:48. > :02:52.but in my view it's right to do this to help to keep our country safe.
:02:53. > :02:54.We're joined now by the Labour MP, Mary Creagh,
:02:55. > :03:11.Are you sure you know what you are doing? Absolutely. I have been very
:03:12. > :03:14.clear since visiting the Lebanon and saw the humanitarian tragedy in that
:03:15. > :03:19.country that we have a duty to act in the Middle East, and that the war
:03:20. > :03:22.in Syria has spilled into Turkey, the bombs in Ankara, Lebanon,
:03:23. > :03:26.Jordan, all of those countries on the front line of this humanitarian
:03:27. > :03:33.crisis, and carrying on with business as usual is not the answer.
:03:34. > :03:37.How does more bombings solve the humanitarian crisis, or even
:03:38. > :03:43.ameliorated? We have to look at it as one part of a full political and
:03:44. > :03:47.diplomatic framework. We know how the international serious support
:03:48. > :03:52.group meeting monthly. The next meeting is in Vienna. Iran, Saudi
:03:53. > :03:57.Arabia and Russia are engaged in a way they were nothing gauged in the
:03:58. > :04:02.failed Geneva peace process the last three years. Hope is those peace
:04:03. > :04:05.talks will lead to democratic elections and the ending of a sad's
:04:06. > :04:12.rain of terror against his own people. Why not let these peace
:04:13. > :04:17.takes take their course if you think they are so positive? Why get
:04:18. > :04:21.involved in the bombing in the interim? We are already involved in
:04:22. > :04:27.overflying for the coalition of 60 countries already engaged. We are
:04:28. > :04:30.engaged in Iraq and we are effectively stopping at the border,
:04:31. > :04:36.a border that Isil does not recognise. Their results or a moral
:04:37. > :04:41.imperative. We founded the United Nations. My party is an
:04:42. > :04:44.internationalist party. When the French and Americans are calling on
:04:45. > :04:49.us to hope them in their hour of need after that terrible attack in
:04:50. > :04:55.Paris and many other places, that we have a duty to listen to that. And
:04:56. > :05:00.of course the UN Security Council resolution, supported by countries
:05:01. > :05:04.as various as China, Venezuela, Angola and New Zealand, calls on
:05:05. > :05:11.most to use all necessary measures. There is a clear legal basis as
:05:12. > :05:15.well. Caroline Lucas, the UN has paved the way for action. And our
:05:16. > :05:21.major allies, including the French, would like us to join them. Why
:05:22. > :05:24.shouldn't we? I think at the minute we shouldn't. There hasn't been a
:05:25. > :05:27.big enough case made by the Prime Minister that are getting involved
:05:28. > :05:32.would either make Britain safer or indeed bring more likelihood of
:05:33. > :05:35.peace in the region. I think looking at the evidence given to the Foreign
:05:36. > :05:37.Affairs Select Committee it is really clear that all of the
:05:38. > :05:42.evidence they received was that if we get involved in this, it is
:05:43. > :05:45.actually going to feed the ice 's narrative, which they would love to
:05:46. > :05:49.be able to present them as the guardians of Islam against the
:05:50. > :05:52.Crusaders from the West. If we play into that, recruits will grow. That
:05:53. > :05:58.is already happening. Let's look at what is happening from the bombing
:05:59. > :06:06.so far. Were you against the bombing in Iraq? Just now? Yes, I was. So
:06:07. > :06:12.you don't think we should be involved militarily at all? I don't.
:06:13. > :06:17.If you look at the evidence of the bombing that has taken place so far
:06:18. > :06:21.over Iraq, then basically over the last year we have seen more
:06:22. > :06:25.recruits, double the number of recruits have gone to Isis since
:06:26. > :06:31.that bombing has started, because we feeding narrative. They have lost
:06:32. > :06:37.major ground as well. That is disputed. A lot of it is desert.
:06:38. > :06:45.They have also gained places like Palmira Silva Palmieri is in Syria.
:06:46. > :06:51.The US has been bombing Syria for a long time and it has not driven Isis
:06:52. > :06:56.back. It does risk the narrative that more recruits will come to
:06:57. > :07:00.Isis. By saying we do not want to drop bombs does not mean we don't
:07:01. > :07:05.want action. Of course we want action. We could be putting pressure
:07:06. > :07:11.on Turkey, for example, to seal the border, to stop the weapons and the
:07:12. > :07:18.oil sales feeding Isis. What does pressure mean? Looking at Saudi in
:07:19. > :07:22.particular, we could be looking at all kinds of financial measures. We
:07:23. > :07:27.have been happy enough to take them over Russia in the Ukraine and yet
:07:28. > :07:30.we are not taking those measures against Saudi Arabia. You want us to
:07:31. > :07:35.take financial sanctions against Saudi Arabia? That is something we
:07:36. > :07:40.should certainly consider, yes. Saudi Arabia is not clamping down on
:07:41. > :07:43.the families and others channelling finance to Isis. We always look at
:07:44. > :07:48.the military response as the fastest and easiest thing to do. We don't
:07:49. > :07:53.necessarily look at other ways that Isis is being fed. It is being fed
:07:54. > :07:57.by finance, weapons and the chaos of the Syrian Civil War. The Syrian
:07:58. > :08:02.economy has effectively collapsed into a wartime economy funded by
:08:03. > :08:10.arms funding -- arms smuggling and people smuggling and the distortion
:08:11. > :08:14.of the 60,000 disappeared people. We have effectively must got a failed
:08:15. > :08:21.state in Syria. Caroline Todd Sinnott sealing the border with
:08:22. > :08:25.Turkey. -- Caroline talks about. The last thing people in Turkey wants to
:08:26. > :08:31.see is the borders sealed. We have huge flows of people out of Syria.
:08:32. > :08:35.Over half of the population is displaced. 4 million people who have
:08:36. > :08:40.left, 6 million displaced. It is in a desperate state. As long as we
:08:41. > :08:44.leave Islamic State there, they now have 30,000 fighters from over 100
:08:45. > :08:48.different countries. If we are prepared to just allow them to
:08:49. > :08:52.continue to regroup and recruit in Raqqa, then we will never have peace
:08:53. > :08:58.in Iraq and we've never have peace in Syria. There were 15,000 recruits
:08:59. > :09:05.last year from 80 countries. The bombing has led to the increase in
:09:06. > :09:09.recruits. What you are doing here is actually encouraging more people to
:09:10. > :09:14.see this as a fight between the West and Islam. Therefore there are an
:09:15. > :09:18.increasing number of recruits going to that area. Shortly before more
:09:19. > :09:23.bombing, we should look at the effect the bombing has had so far.
:09:24. > :09:28.You posit the effect that the bombing has had this effect. I would
:09:29. > :09:32.argue the effect of having a failed state in Syria, the effect that they
:09:33. > :09:35.are the only people who seem to be standing up to Assad in his own
:09:36. > :09:41.country, means that in effect there were 200,000 free Syrian fighters
:09:42. > :09:49.two years ago. Now they are down to 70,000. There is a lot of fluidity
:09:50. > :09:54.in Syria. As long as Assad is there, Peter Luff co-opted into fighting
:09:55. > :09:59.for them. It is that propaganda as well. Where are these phantom 70,000
:10:00. > :10:05.ground troops who are going to support us? Everybody agrees that
:10:06. > :10:08.bombing on its own will not work. We need ground forces. David Cameron
:10:09. > :10:12.came to the Commons and claimed there were 70,000 ground forces who
:10:13. > :10:16.were not for a sad and were not extremist. That figure has been
:10:17. > :10:21.absolutely hammered by all of the experts. Robert Fisk yesterday
:10:22. > :10:27.called it a complete mockery to suggest those ground troops. This is
:10:28. > :10:32.why the peace process is so important. As the Free Syrian Army
:10:33. > :10:36.is murdered by a sad they will be fewer people able to protect their
:10:37. > :10:41.towns and able to stand up for him. -- Assad. We need a multinational
:10:42. > :10:45.peace framework for the people of Syria to take back their nation from
:10:46. > :10:53.The Jihadi Spot and the idea that we just let them get on with it... We
:10:54. > :10:57.found mass graves. They were marching in Baghdad earlier this
:10:58. > :11:02.year, Islamic State. Let me finish. You have had your say. The idea that
:11:03. > :11:07.somehow just allowing it all to continue... Nobody is talking about
:11:08. > :11:13.allowing it to continue. We have allowed it to continue for three
:11:14. > :11:16.years. They enslaved children as young as five into sexual slavery
:11:17. > :11:22.and they murder women of our age who are too old to be sold. Summoning
:11:23. > :11:27.people giving evidence to the furnace 's committee said that by
:11:28. > :11:31.getting involved in the bombing we reduce our capacity to play a big
:11:32. > :11:35.role in the diplomatic efforts. Many of those experts say Britain is well
:11:36. > :11:38.placed because we are not bombing Syria to play a real role in the
:11:39. > :11:45.peace talks. That would be undermined if we become part of it.
:11:46. > :11:50.But you don't know that. They don't know it either. It is just a piece
:11:51. > :11:59.of commentary. It is not the basis of policy. The foreigner 's
:12:00. > :12:03.committee assembled those experts. They came to the conclusion that the
:12:04. > :12:10.case had not been made for bombing. The chairman of that committee has
:12:11. > :12:15.changed his mind. You put this great faith in the peace process, both of
:12:16. > :12:24.you. The evidence is pretty slight for it. But at the same time you
:12:25. > :12:27.want to use the non-IS terrorist anti-Assad people. But any peace
:12:28. > :12:34.process will involve Assad and the Russians. I don't understand how you
:12:35. > :12:37.can keep the anti-Assad Freedom Fighters happy and still have to
:12:38. > :12:44.deal with Mr Assad and the Russians. They are on opposite sides. We have
:12:45. > :12:49.to give Syria backed its territorial integrity, which it no longer has.
:12:50. > :12:54.It is no longer a functioning state. The second thing is, we have defied
:12:55. > :12:56.the terrorist factory, The Jihadi Spot three, which is, we have defied
:12:57. > :13:00.the terrorist factory, The Jihadi Spot three, which eased in Syria has
:13:01. > :13:10.become. We foiled seven terror attacks in our own country this
:13:11. > :13:15.year. Let's make sure we don't make things worse. Nobody is denying Isis
:13:16. > :13:23.does terrible things. We need to move on. You have both had a good
:13:24. > :13:26.chance to air your eye humans. I'm no -- I know the viewers will be
:13:27. > :13:26.listening very carefully to both sides.
:13:27. > :13:29.So, Jeremy Corbyn's implacably opposed to extending air strikes to
:13:30. > :13:32.Syria, but he's failed to persuade many of his MPs, his Shadow Cabinet
:13:33. > :13:35.and even the Shadow Foreign Secretary that he's right.
:13:36. > :13:38.So yesterday he had to abandon plans to whip his MPs and offered them,
:13:39. > :13:42.It was less than a edifying spectacle.
:13:43. > :13:45.In a stormy Shadow Cabinet meeting, it was reported that Shadow Home
:13:46. > :13:48.Secretary Andy Burnham accused Mr Corbyn of trying to "throw MPs
:13:49. > :13:54.to the wolves", by trying to force them to vote against air strikes.
:13:55. > :13:57.According to reports afterwards, ministers described
:13:58. > :14:00.the situation as "embarrassing" and "disgraceful" and accused
:14:01. > :14:07.Then yesterday evening, the Labour leader had to face backbench MPs.
:14:08. > :14:16.There were attacks on the party's advisor on defence
:14:17. > :14:19.was said to have argued, "We cannot unite the party if the leader's
:14:20. > :14:24.So where does this leave Mr Corbyn's position?
:14:25. > :14:27.With me in the studio is Matt Wrack, the General Secretary of the
:14:28. > :14:32.Fire Brigades Union, who have just re-affiliated with Labour.
:14:33. > :14:35.Mr Wrack says the Labour party has "changed for the better since the
:14:36. > :14:38.election of Jeremy Corbyn", arguing he has given his members
:14:39. > :14:41.and supporters "hope that we can shift the political debate
:14:42. > :14:56.I assume you have joined, you want the union to be affiliated because
:14:57. > :15:00.you think Labour is much more left-wing under Mr Corbyn We think
:15:01. > :15:07.that there is an opportunity for politics addresses the issues
:15:08. > :15:11.affecting working people and trade unionist, we were affiliated from
:15:12. > :15:16.1926 to 2004. There has been a debate and Jeremy Corbyn has been a
:15:17. > :15:23.long time ally of our union, he has stood by us in difficult times, and
:15:24. > :15:25.stood up for trade union rights for public services, against authority
:15:26. > :15:33.and that resonates with a lots of our people. When you left Labour the
:15:34. > :15:37.Fire Brigades' Union developed link with far left groups The union
:15:38. > :15:40.didn't. But individuals did. Individuals still have the right to
:15:41. > :15:44.do whatever they want to do politically but the union has
:15:45. > :15:49.policies, it has only ever supported Labour candidates. But you must
:15:50. > :15:55.think now, or want to be part of the move, that the FBU wants to be part
:15:56. > :15:59.of a move to make the Labour Party stand for more things like the, like
:16:00. > :16:05.Tusk rather than the Labour Party under Mr Blair. As I said, the union
:16:06. > :16:09.has never taken a position on Tusk, it has its policies which reflect
:16:10. > :16:13.many of the policies of many trade unions against austerity for workers
:16:14. > :16:17.rights, standing up for public service workers and so on, so as an
:16:18. > :16:19.affiliate of the Labour Party we will be arguing for those policies
:16:20. > :16:23.within the structures of the Labour Party. That is what any affiliate
:16:24. > :16:28.would do. What policies of Mr Corbyn's don't you like? I think we
:16:29. > :16:33.are supportive of Mr Corbyn's policies is. That was my point. Yes.
:16:34. > :16:39.That you are. What do you say to the argument... The point is we are an
:16:40. > :16:42.independent organisation with our own policies and structures that
:16:43. > :16:49.will determine... I understand that. But what do you say to those who
:16:50. > :16:54.would point out every time your wing of the Labour Party takes control,
:16:55. > :16:57.or the Labour Party moves in this direction, you lose electionsome,
:16:58. > :17:04.does that matter? Of course it matters to win election, I think
:17:05. > :17:11.that the the experience in our view of the past decade, two decades is
:17:12. > :17:15.that many core Labour voters have been disenfranchised, feel
:17:16. > :17:19.disenfranchised and we would want to be part of a movement engages with
:17:20. > :17:22.traditional Labour voters and with the trade unions, there has been
:17:23. > :17:28.disquiet among trade unions for many years. But as you are probably to
:17:29. > :17:32.find out in the Oldham by-election those disheartened Labour voters are
:17:33. > :17:36.more likely to vote for Ukip than your brand of politics There needs
:17:37. > :17:41.to be a long-term strategy to engage with many of these people. Whatever
:17:42. > :17:46.wing of the Labour Party people are on nobody would dispute the need to
:17:47. > :17:50.edge gauge with the people. Are you happy a strong left-wing voice has
:17:51. > :17:55.come into the Labour Party? I am delighted the Fire Brigades' Union
:17:56. > :17:59.has rejoined the Labour Party. It struck me as an anomaly that they
:18:00. > :18:02.ever left, if you don't mind me saying. It is another strong voice
:18:03. > :18:08.that will take the party in a direction of which you do not
:18:09. > :18:11.approve of, broadly. Locally my Fire Service has suffered tremendous cuts
:18:12. > :18:16.and when I have been briefed by my Chief Fire Officer they have told me
:18:17. > :18:19.by 2020 most of the firefighters, the majority of firefighters in West
:18:20. > :18:23.Yorkshire will be over the age of 50. I think there is a real issue,
:18:24. > :18:26.in the Fire Service, about the fact that we are not recruiting young
:18:27. > :18:29.firefighter, we are not training them and the closure of fire
:18:30. > :18:33.stations and it is interesting what you said about different parties, we
:18:34. > :18:37.have a former firefighter who is a Ukip councillor in my area, so I
:18:38. > :18:43.look forward to working with Matt on tackling some of the Ukip mythology.
:18:44. > :18:48.I understand that, but on the broad thrust of Mr Corbyn's direction he
:18:49. > :18:52.is going in, that is another strong voice you will end up opposing. I
:18:53. > :18:58.don't oppose the Fire Brigades' Union, I think they do amazing work.
:18:59. > :19:01.I am not... I, on the question was not do you oppose the Fire Brigades'
:19:02. > :19:08.Union for being the Fire Brigades' Union, that would be an absurd
:19:09. > :19:13.question, that would be an equally ludicrous we, me point is this is a
:19:14. > :19:17.strong well-organised union that is back in the Labour Party, determined
:19:18. > :19:21.to take the Labour Party in the direction Mr Corbyn wants it to go,
:19:22. > :19:25.and you are opposed to that. I want the Labour Party to move forward in
:19:26. > :19:31.the broad coalition and the Broadchurch it has always been. I
:19:32. > :19:33.welcome the rejoining of the FBU as an historic trade union,
:19:34. > :19:39.representing thousands of working men and women. I am not sure what my
:19:40. > :19:42.case is, so we all want to see a Labour Government in 2020. You know,
:19:43. > :19:50.the more people we have working towards that end, the better it is.
:19:51. > :19:54.Should Mr Corbyn have whipped the Labour Party against extending
:19:55. > :19:58.bombing to Syria? You are against it too. Personally I a am. My union
:19:59. > :20:02.hasn't discussed the current situation, although we have
:20:03. > :20:06.discussed related matters. We were talking about the safety of British
:20:07. > :20:11.citizens in relation to terrorism. It is appalling that we are
:20:12. > :20:15.discussing that at the same time that this week, the London Fire
:20:16. > :20:17.Brigade is discussing cutting another 13 fire engines on the
:20:18. > :20:22.instructions of the mayor. So let us, if we are talking about the
:20:23. > :20:26.safety of British citizens, 7/7 the firefighters were sent down into
:20:27. > :20:32.tunnels to save people's lives. We are now in a week of -- weaker
:20:33. > :20:37.position in relation to public safety, firefighters have a great
:20:38. > :20:43.interest in terrorism. And a great role to play when terrorism... My
:20:44. > :20:46.question to you was, should Mr Corbyn have whipped the Labour Party
:20:47. > :20:50.against extending strikes into Syria? I wasn't in that discussion,
:20:51. > :20:54.that is a matter for Mr Corbyn as the leader of the Labour Party to
:20:55. > :20:57.make. I do think there are a whole host of contradictions in the
:20:58. > :21:00.position that David Cameron is adopting in relation to Syria, two
:21:01. > :21:04.years ago he wanted to bomb the other side. Today he wants to bomb a
:21:05. > :21:08.different side in a nasty Civil War. I don't, I am not personally
:21:09. > :21:15.convinced there is a realise ticks strategy to address the threat of
:21:16. > :21:21.Isil. Caroline, you agree with Mr Corbyn on most things, on war and
:21:22. > :21:26.peace, social justice, environmental issue, rejecting austerity, where
:21:27. > :21:30.don't you agree on him I am glad he did give a free vote. I think on
:21:31. > :21:36.matters of such issues of conscience it is right to give a free vote.
:21:37. > :21:40.What about the wider issues I raised On the issue of Syria on Trident,
:21:41. > :21:48.yes we have worked closely. Where don't you agree with him? Jeremy is
:21:49. > :21:53.leading the Labour Party. I know, what don't, I am trying to get the
:21:54. > :22:01.answer. Where I agree is I think he has strong policies. I didn't ask
:22:02. > :22:06.you, where do you disagree. I will give you the the answer. On
:22:07. > :22:11.recognising the imperative of green policies of environmental policy ssm
:22:12. > :22:14.nuclear power. He says he is a huge environmentalist and I am sure you
:22:15. > :22:19.were in there you could nudge him more in that direction. You are the
:22:20. > :22:23.last person to take what someone says as being the gospel truth. You
:22:24. > :22:27.will address it and interrogate it. I would say that Labour Party that
:22:28. > :22:30.is up supporting nuclear power is a Labour Party that hasn't recognised
:22:31. > :22:34.the future of energy needs to be one which is community energy, that is
:22:35. > :22:37.renewable energy, green energy, the amount of money nuclear energy will
:22:38. > :22:41.cost us is going to have massive opportunity costs. You have got the
:22:42. > :22:46.Fire Brigades' Union right but I failed in my attempt to get The
:22:47. > :22:47.Greens. Nice try. Thank you very much both of you.
:22:48. > :22:51.It is final for our daily quiz. Caroline Lucas
:22:52. > :22:52.and other campaigners have been trying to destroy the Lords
:22:53. > :22:56.for years, but it seems something So our question for today is,
:22:57. > :22:59.what's eating the House of Lords? I hope none of you are enjoying
:23:00. > :23:02.your lunch at the moment. At the end of the show Caroline
:23:03. > :23:13.will give us the correct answer. Now, the Conservative Party board
:23:14. > :23:15.met yesterday afternoon to decide its next move in the scandal
:23:16. > :23:18.surrounding allegations of bullying At the weekend
:23:19. > :23:21.the party's former co-chairman Grant Shapps resigned as minister, saying
:23:22. > :23:24.that the buck stopped with him - but that failed to stem criticism of
:23:25. > :23:27.the party's handling of the affair. Let's speak to our Deputy
:23:28. > :23:58.Political Editor, James Landale. Where are we in this now? I see the
:23:59. > :24:02.Tories are now had to go to another rather more independent inquiry to
:24:03. > :24:07.try and hose this down? Yes, what they have done is decided to hand
:24:08. > :24:12.the entire inquiry over to Clifford Chance, it was in, they were
:24:13. > :24:17.reviewing the Conservative Party's internal inquiry, that has changed,
:24:18. > :24:25.clift Chance will take sole charge, that inquiry itself will be sqently
:24:26. > :24:30.reviewed by a guy called Lord Panick. The report will be
:24:31. > :24:39.published, when the board discusses the findings of the report, Lord
:24:40. > :24:43.Feldman and Robert Halfon will. What the party is trying to do, they will
:24:44. > :24:46.clear their hands of the inquiry so it is more independent than it was
:24:47. > :24:51.in the past. In a hope that will satisfy some of the critics it has
:24:52. > :24:55.gone far enough. In other words, grant Shapes has resigned. The --
:24:56. > :25:03.Grant Shapps has resigned. They hope it will draw a line I sense a
:25:04. > :25:07.circling of the establishment Tory wagons round Andrew Feldman, is that
:25:08. > :25:11.right? Does he survive to at least until this report comes out? I think
:25:12. > :25:15.that is what they will hope will happen. Certainly, the message has
:25:16. > :25:21.gone out that Andrew Feldman needs to be supported. I have had
:25:22. > :25:25.unprompted calls from Conservative MPs saying he is a nice chap. He is
:25:26. > :25:29.a Popular Party chairmanlet one because he is a pleasant individual,
:25:30. > :25:32.and you know they enjoy, interacting with him, secondly he raises a lot
:25:33. > :25:36.of money for the Conservative Party. He has got the Conservative Party in
:25:37. > :25:40.much better shape than in the past, the MPs understand that, because
:25:41. > :25:42.that filters down through to their local associations, the other thing
:25:43. > :25:46.that is helping the Government and the Conservative Party is the fact
:25:47. > :25:51.there are so much attention on Syria at the moment, that it takes some of
:25:52. > :25:54.the political heat out of this story, so the pressure from The
:25:55. > :25:57.Papers and elsewhere is hidden inside the newspapers rather than on
:25:58. > :26:02.the front-page. The key question is this, that is the father of the
:26:03. > :26:07.young story -- Tory activist who died earlier this year, Ray
:26:08. > :26:10.Johnston, he is a man who has already you know, expressed his
:26:11. > :26:14.opinion strongly that Grant Shapps should resign. He has resigned. He
:26:15. > :26:20.still thinks that Lord Feldman should resign. A lot of papers will
:26:21. > :26:21.take their cue from that. I don't think the pressure is over yet.
:26:22. > :26:25.EU leaders met with Turkey at the weekend, and have agreed
:26:26. > :26:28.a deal to try and stem the flow of migrants travelling through
:26:29. > :26:32.Turkey has agreed to tighten its border and reduce the number
:26:33. > :26:34.of people leaving its shores and heading to Greece.
:26:35. > :26:37.720,000 migrants have arrived in Greece so far this year.
:26:38. > :26:39.But Turkey won several big concessions in return.
:26:40. > :26:42.As part of the deal, the EU will give Turkey an initial
:26:43. > :26:44.three billion euros to help Syrian refugees in the country.
:26:45. > :26:47.Turkish citizens will be able to travel to Europe visa-free within
:26:48. > :26:53.a year, as long as certain conditions are met.
:26:54. > :26:55.And negotiations on Turkey joining the EU will be re-opened.
:26:56. > :26:58.The Turkish Prime Minister said it was an "historic day"
:26:59. > :27:01.Some say the EU has been too generous, but
:27:02. > :27:03.German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Turkey should not be "left alone"
:27:04. > :27:26.And we're joined now by the Ukip MP, Douglas Carswell.
:27:27. > :27:35.Welcome. What is wrong with this deal? I can see from turkey's point
:27:36. > :27:39.of view why it is good. First of all they get EU membership negotiations
:27:40. > :27:42.to resume now, I wouldn't want EU membership on a friend and I am a
:27:43. > :27:51.friend of Turkey. It would be bad for them. They get 2 billion a year,
:27:52. > :27:57.3 billion euro, ?400,000, sorry 400 million of which we contribute to.
:27:58. > :28:00.400,000 refugees a year will be shared out among the Shengen
:28:01. > :28:05.country, we are not in Shengen, but once you have been allocated to a
:28:06. > :28:08.Shengen country, and you have got your residency papers you will have
:28:09. > :28:12.the right to come and live in this country. Imagine you are part of the
:28:13. > :28:16.quota that gets allocated to Portugal our Italy. The moment you
:28:17. > :28:22.get your papers you can move from Portugal to heck ham or Italy to
:28:23. > :28:30.Ipswich. No-one is asking whether we agree. It's a bad deal for us.
:28:31. > :28:34.Caroline Lucas what do you say? I have serious misgivings as well.
:28:35. > :28:38.Turkey's human rights record is appall, I think that the role they
:28:39. > :28:42.are praying in the crisis in Syria is unhelpful and so the idea we are
:28:43. > :28:45.going to open doors now, to them, seems to me to be wrong. If they
:28:46. > :28:48.were going to be part of negotiations to be part of the EU,
:28:49. > :28:52.there are all kinds of things they would have to put in place first.
:28:53. > :28:56.The independence of the judiciary, human right, a range of qualities.
:28:57. > :29:02.For all these reasons no-one ex Presidents Turkey to be a member of
:29:03. > :29:07.the EU in the foreseeable future They are getting a key benefit which
:29:08. > :29:11.is the act to move round the EU at will without having to show papers
:29:12. > :29:17.or have restriction, that is the concern. The fact that 75 million
:29:18. > :29:22.Turks will have unreTricketted non-visa access from October. People
:29:23. > :29:26.say that doesn't confer perm negotiate right of residence. They
:29:27. > :29:29.are going to stay in. How do we know that people coming into the Shengen
:29:30. > :29:33.area from October are not going to remain there? Once they have
:29:34. > :29:38.obtained residency right, they will, I am sure, move to this country. So,
:29:39. > :29:42.why didn't the British Government oppose this? Indeed. You may notice
:29:43. > :29:47.I am not a defender of the current Government. I have noticed that. I
:29:48. > :29:51.think that David Cameron has allowed the European Union to negotiate on
:29:52. > :29:54.our behalf, with Turkey and it is yet one more reason why we are
:29:55. > :30:00.better off leaving the European Union, the European Union has lost
:30:01. > :30:04.control of its migration policy itself has lost the ability to
:30:05. > :30:10.negotiate well. We would be wetter -- better off taking control. You
:30:11. > :30:14.don't agree with that, but, the European Union clearly felt it has
:30:15. > :30:19.to do something to try and at least get a grip of this uncontrolled
:30:20. > :30:24.migration that is currently coming in, and even though we we have moved
:30:25. > :30:28.now as of today into the winter months it will be become I suspect a
:30:29. > :30:34.humanitarian crisis, even worse now, they felt they had to do something,
:30:35. > :30:39.and didn't they use what tools they have available, which is money and
:30:40. > :30:45.some agreement. They know that they can't put a fence up. They know it
:30:46. > :30:48.can't be fortress Europe. They are right to recognise the situation in
:30:49. > :30:53.the refugee camps is getting desperate. People are in poverty and
:30:54. > :30:57.cold and hungry and yes, finances should be going to support people in
:30:58. > :30:59.those refugee camps and Britain ought to be doing more as well,
:31:00. > :31:11.although with have a good record. I would like us to talk to our EU
:31:12. > :31:14.counterparts to step up the finance they were putting into the pot
:31:15. > :31:21.rather than opening the doors to a country with such an appalling human
:31:22. > :31:26.rights record and would not be in a position to join the EU given that
:31:27. > :31:31.record. If a Turkish national takes the advantage of this, they will
:31:32. > :31:35.still have two show their Turkish passport at the British border,
:31:36. > :31:41.while they? Correct. But if you are allowed into Europe and there is no
:31:42. > :31:44.system to log people in, you will just stay. In America they have a
:31:45. > :31:49.technology driven system which means you are logged in and logged out.
:31:50. > :31:56.The London Underground logs you in and out. Europe simply does not have
:31:57. > :32:02.it. It is allowing people entry into Schengen was no way of locking them
:32:03. > :32:06.in or out. Was there a sense of desperation from Europe on this?
:32:07. > :32:10.That is an interesting point about the login and logged out. There is
:32:11. > :32:15.no real political will, even in Germany, which used to be a big
:32:16. > :32:19.supporter of Turkey, to give Turkey full membership but it has been
:32:20. > :32:25.dangled there. The idea that President Hollande, this side of a
:32:26. > :32:28.difficult election, would agree to Turkish membership is inconceivable.
:32:29. > :32:33.I think that is right. It is a Turkish membership is inconceivable.
:32:34. > :32:36.slightly cynical move. People are very worried about vast numbers of
:32:37. > :32:41.refugees coming and they are trying to outsource the problem, to leave
:32:42. > :32:48.it to the Turkish, give them some benefits and close our eyes to it.
:32:49. > :32:52.It is really worrying. A few years ago the problem with Europe not
:32:53. > :32:55.being able to handle its currency, now we see Europe not been able to
:32:56. > :33:00.provide basic leadership over the migration crisis. Maybe Europe
:33:01. > :33:06.simply cannot organise the affairs of half a billion people this way.
:33:07. > :33:09.Maybe we should leave the European Union and take control. It is such a
:33:10. > :33:19.shame that is where you always end up! The people we're blaming the
:33:20. > :33:23.current governments of the EU. I don't blame the EU. I blame
:33:24. > :33:29.successive British administrations that have signed us up. A quick
:33:30. > :33:33.question. Have you made up your mind how you are going to vote in the
:33:34. > :33:42.Syrian motion? I am genuinely undecided. Will you win Oldham? We
:33:43. > :33:45.are still the underdog but it could happen, let's wait and see.
:33:46. > :33:48.World leaders are meeting in Paris to try and reach international
:33:49. > :33:49.agreement on reducing emissions and tackling climate change.
:33:50. > :33:51.In his speech to the conference yesterday, David
:33:52. > :33:54.Cameron said we need "global action to deal with a global problem".
:33:55. > :33:57.But closer to home green campaigners are angry at changes made
:33:58. > :33:59.in the summer budget and recent spending review that will
:34:00. > :34:03.reduce the subsidies available to renewable energy, once famously
:34:04. > :34:15.Last week, Chancellor George Osborne announced that the green levies paid
:34:16. > :34:17.by consumers on their energy bills will be reduced.
:34:18. > :34:21.He also scrapped a ?1 billion competition to develop carbon
:34:22. > :34:27.And exempted energy intensive industries, like steel, from
:34:28. > :34:32.the cost of environmental tariffs, while cutting the day-to-day budget
:34:33. > :34:37.for the Department for Energy and Climate Change by 22%.
:34:38. > :34:40.This is on top of plans already announced to raise
:34:41. > :34:45.hundreds of millions in taxes from renewable energy companies by making
:34:46. > :34:58.And cuts in the subsidies available for solar power and onshore wind.
:34:59. > :35:01.Offshore wind still gets its subsidies.
:35:02. > :35:03.Energy and Climate Change Secretary Amber Rudd insists the government is
:35:04. > :35:06.still on course to meet its emissions targets, and says it is
:35:07. > :35:09.doubling funding for innovation and research in the energy industry,
:35:10. > :35:14.while taking action to keep the cost of energy down.
:35:15. > :35:16.We're joined now by the former Conservative Cabinet
:35:17. > :35:27.Welcome. When you see that list of changes the Government has made,
:35:28. > :35:34.particularly in subsidies to renewable energy, quite hard to
:35:35. > :35:38.claim to be the greenest government ever, isn't it? They are being even
:35:39. > :35:42.greener than they intended. They said forward a certain budget to
:35:43. > :35:48.reach a certain target for renewables. The subsidies were
:35:49. > :35:53.generous and people signed up too fast. The budget was fully used up.
:35:54. > :35:58.And they were ahead of schedule in meeting their targets. I am
:35:59. > :36:00.sceptical about the whole business. But to give them credit, it is not
:36:01. > :36:06.because they wanted to do too little, but they had done more than
:36:07. > :36:13.they intended. You think there is no doubt we meet our renewable targets?
:36:14. > :36:17.I don't think there is. Caroline may have a sceptical view. In the short
:36:18. > :36:21.term we will meet them but longer term it looks likely that we will
:36:22. > :36:28.not. The idea of cutting the subsidies to solar right now is what
:36:29. > :36:31.is just so lacking in any sense. The bit of support could have gone on
:36:32. > :36:35.for another few years. Solar would have been at a stage where it would
:36:36. > :36:41.not have needed that extra support. It would have been able to compete
:36:42. > :36:44.with other fossil fuels and other markets. Just for the sake of
:36:45. > :36:48.another few years of that support, we have sacrificed a growing
:36:49. > :36:52.industry. In Brighton there are solar companies going out of
:36:53. > :36:56.business. Thousands of people are being laid off, possibly up to
:36:57. > :37:01.20,000, as a result of this short-sighted move. Another couple
:37:02. > :37:07.of years would have done the job? It is always a couple of years. Even if
:37:08. > :37:12.they reach grid parity, the cost of producing electricity by solar is
:37:13. > :37:16.the same as delivering it to the grid, unfortunately solar delivers
:37:17. > :37:21.it only at The Times we do not need it. We need it most in winter and in
:37:22. > :37:25.the evenings. The sun does not shine very much in the summer for the
:37:26. > :37:31.evenings. Electricity is much less valuable at that time. To be
:37:32. > :37:36.competitive it would have too produced between 30 and 50% less
:37:37. > :37:40.cost than conventional fuels. There is no chance of that on the horizon.
:37:41. > :37:45.You know there are huge strides happening when it comes to energy
:37:46. > :37:50.storage. One of the decisions this government has taken is to lock us
:37:51. > :37:53.into this huge contract with building a new nuclear power station
:37:54. > :37:57.at Hinkley Point. The evidence is clearly there that that power
:37:58. > :38:01.station will lock us into those funds for 35 years. If you look at
:38:02. > :38:07.what solar could have done, we would have been getting electricity far
:38:08. > :38:10.more cheaply than from nuclear. I understand the economics. But that
:38:11. > :38:16.does presuppose we will crack the storage issue. The power generated
:38:17. > :38:22.by solar, when the sun is shining, we can then store insufficiently
:38:23. > :38:33.large quantities to feed it into the grid. It does not exist yet. Not in
:38:34. > :38:37.any large scale. It may one day. We are always making breakthroughs, we
:38:38. > :38:41.are always on the edge things. It would not matter if we had subsidies
:38:42. > :38:46.for the next few years are not, but it is not remotely close. I hope
:38:47. > :38:50.they do develop these storage things and they become cheaper. But at the
:38:51. > :38:55.moment they are only dreams of the Greens. They do not exist in the
:38:56. > :38:59.real world. The Paris climate talks are already talking about an
:39:00. > :39:02.international group of scientists stepping up the work on this. It
:39:03. > :39:06.would be done far faster than when you get the first bit of electricity
:39:07. > :39:14.coming out of Hinkley Point. I will lay a bet on it. Back to Hinkley
:39:15. > :39:17.Point, people have criticised onshore and offshore wind for being
:39:18. > :39:21.expensive. It is a fair bet that Hinckley power station will be the
:39:22. > :39:29.most expensive power station ever built in the world and need time
:39:30. > :39:33.anywhere. -- any time. That is assuming it is on-time and budget,
:39:34. > :39:40.which given EDF and France's record, will probably be a stupid
:39:41. > :39:46.assumption to make. I agree. I am rather sceptical on it. I used to be
:39:47. > :39:51.keen on nuclear energy. As a child I decided to be an scientist because
:39:52. > :39:56.nuclear -- because nuclear energy had just been discovered. Now it is
:39:57. > :40:00.too extensive to contemplate. It is one of those things where the
:40:01. > :40:06.assumption that costs always goes down does not prove to be true. I
:40:07. > :40:14.may recruit Peter to the anti nuclear cores. I would be in favour
:40:15. > :40:18.of looking at small modular areas. At least the industry would be
:40:19. > :40:23.home-grown and capable of exporting. On the wider issue of what is going
:40:24. > :40:28.on in Paris, you don't really think it is important, is that right? It
:40:29. > :40:33.is not terribly important. Even if it achieves what it claims to
:40:34. > :40:35.achieve, the only two studies I have seen which have fed through all of
:40:36. > :40:41.the commitments that governments are planning to make through the
:40:42. > :40:56.computers, forecasts for the future climate, I am sceptical. That this
:40:57. > :41:00.will mean that the world at the end of the century is 0.2 degrees cooler
:41:01. > :41:05.than it would otherwise be. An expenditure of trillions of dollars.
:41:06. > :41:12.I would certainly say that Bjorn Lundberg is hardly an independent
:41:13. > :41:18.expert. Surely he is as independent as you, me or Andrew. What is
:41:19. > :41:24.happening in Paris is incredibly exciting. I think these are the best
:41:25. > :41:32.chances we have had of getting an agreement to keep warming as close
:41:33. > :41:35.below 2 degrees. We want to keep below two Celsius warming. At the
:41:36. > :41:40.moment if you add up what the different countries have pledged, it
:41:41. > :41:44.is still looking more like 2.7. The good thing is they were building a
:41:45. > :41:48.ratchet mechanism whereby these could be reviewed regularly so that
:41:49. > :41:53.as the science and technology progresses, we could also ratchet up
:41:54. > :42:01.the ambition. Will it be binding? I fear that it will not be binding.
:42:02. > :42:05.That is a weakness, isn't it? It is certainly a weakness. But if you
:42:06. > :42:09.compare where we are now with Copenhagen, that disintegrated in
:42:10. > :42:12.such chaos. Now we have a good text in front of negotiators that can be
:42:13. > :42:22.improved. We have do hope the political will is there. Copenhagen
:42:23. > :42:26.handed -- ended without resolution. There are higher hopes for the Paris
:42:27. > :42:31.meeting. There is a sense there with the agreement will stop They will
:42:32. > :42:38.always agree to agree. It is agree to something because it is not
:42:39. > :42:42.binding. Most countries, as they develop, will start using energy
:42:43. > :42:48.more efficiently. They will be able to make commitments to reduce the
:42:49. > :42:51.amount of energy per unit of GDP. China will do that automatically. It
:42:52. > :42:58.has nothing to do with carbon dioxide. That has been happening in
:42:59. > :43:02.America. Yes. The fact that China and the US are absolutely on-board,
:43:03. > :43:10.the fact that businesses are lobbying... China is now the biggest
:43:11. > :43:15.place for renewable energy. Is also going to build 100 new coal
:43:16. > :43:23.stations. It is also doing a lot on renewable energy. It is not a great
:43:24. > :43:29.policy to have. It helps to create that huge smog. They are moving away
:43:30. > :43:32.from that very fast. I would be very surprised if 100 new ones happen
:43:33. > :43:42.because of the smog but because their local people cannot live in
:43:43. > :43:45.it. There could be an opportunity for you there in China! Have you
:43:46. > :43:52.made up your mind how you will vote on the Syrian motion tomorrow? No. I
:43:53. > :43:55.start sceptical but I would like to be persuaded there are credible
:43:56. > :44:00.reasons for doing what we clearly will do but I am not yet convinced.
:44:01. > :44:05.You are the second one. Douglas Carswell was in the same position.
:44:06. > :44:09.We hear that the Cabinet is at last going to come to a decision on
:44:10. > :44:17.another runway in the south-east. And the money seems to be on
:44:18. > :44:21.Heathrow. What is your view on that? We should get on and do it. I don't
:44:22. > :44:28.particularly care where it is but let's build it. You don't want a
:44:29. > :44:36.runway anywhere in the south-east? Aviation is the fastest-growing
:44:37. > :44:40.source of gas house emissions. I think basically what we need to do
:44:41. > :44:45.is to reduce demand, that means getting a lot more freight going in
:44:46. > :44:49.other ways. It means also having a proposal for a frequent fry -- Flyer
:44:50. > :44:54.Levy, so it would penalise people who fly a lot, not people who fly
:44:55. > :45:01.less. Do you think it will be Heathrow? Yes, I'm sure it will. Up
:45:02. > :45:13.against Boris Johnson, Zac Goldsmith... We have got more older
:45:14. > :45:14.Tony Evans than they have got! The idea of this government happily no
:45:15. > :45:18.confirmed. Now,
:45:19. > :45:19.this Thursday the polls open for a by-election in the constituency
:45:20. > :45:22.of Oldham West and Royton, which the long-serving left-wing Labour
:45:23. > :45:24.MP Michael Meacher represented The ballot will prove the first
:45:25. > :45:28.electoral test of Jeremy Corbyn's We sent our Adam to see how
:45:29. > :45:42.the battle for Oldham is unfolding. Oldham was a boom town in the Cawson
:45:43. > :45:44.era. A quarter of the population has
:45:45. > :45:52.Pakistani or Bangladeshi heritage, and it has been a safe Labour seat
:45:53. > :45:55.for decades, held by Michael Meacher at the last election with
:45:56. > :45:59.a majority of more than 14,000. Labour's candidate in this
:46:00. > :46:01.by-election is the leader of the local council, but he's having to
:46:02. > :46:04.answer a lot of questions about his leader, because it's the party's
:46:05. > :46:09.first election with Jezza in charge. He's a man of principle
:46:10. > :46:12.and substance, There is big stuff happening
:46:13. > :46:18.in the world at the moment. There's no doubt people will
:46:19. > :46:25.raise that on the door. It's on the news every night
:46:26. > :46:28.when people come home from work and And we had those conversations,
:46:29. > :46:33.and what I'm pleased about is how It's up beat and the challenge
:46:34. > :46:38.for us is to make sure people turn Ukip mention Jeremy Corbyn
:46:39. > :46:41.as often as they can. This is the third by-election
:46:42. > :46:43.in this area What's with this
:46:44. > :46:49.Presidential podium here? That's for when
:46:50. > :46:52.our leader comes up to support me. I wouldn't dare present from there
:46:53. > :46:57.when I know Nigel is coming up. It's not that three by-elections
:46:58. > :47:02.have gone to your head? I'm going to see the doctor after
:47:03. > :47:08.this one, because I must be mad. I'm doing it
:47:09. > :47:10.because I really believe in what we stand for, and what we're trying to
:47:11. > :47:13.go to get our country back. The Tories were beaten
:47:14. > :47:18.into third place by Ukip in May. This time their leaflets
:47:19. > :47:20.are resolutely local. It's a local plan,
:47:21. > :47:22.it's a three point plan. It's a plan based upon issues that
:47:23. > :47:25.affect people every day, and have First, it's tackling crime
:47:26. > :47:29.and anti-social behaviour. Secondly,
:47:30. > :47:30.it's better public transport and more investment, and thirdly,
:47:31. > :47:32.it's cleaning up our streets. Dealing with the blight of potholes,
:47:33. > :47:34.fly-tipping and littering. While the Liberal Democrats are
:47:35. > :47:37.campaigning at the local mosque, We were the only party in Parliament
:47:38. > :47:42.that stood up Thankfully, the Tories have come
:47:43. > :47:46.onboard with our campaign to stop the tax credit cuts,
:47:47. > :47:49.but we are still concerned there is And the Green candidate,
:47:50. > :47:53.who is deaf and speaks through an interpreter, took me to a local
:47:54. > :47:58.spot that is about to be built on. This is being planned now to build
:47:59. > :48:03.a warehouse and houses. So this whole area is going to
:48:04. > :48:09.be affected with more traffic. It will create employment,
:48:10. > :48:12.but the people that live in this local area are really going
:48:13. > :48:19.to miss this beautiful environment. They all want to represent
:48:20. > :48:22.an area of the north-west of England where Winston Churchill began
:48:23. > :48:23.his Parliamentary career. It's also claimed to be the place
:48:24. > :48:26.where fish and chips were invented. There is even a Blue Plaque
:48:27. > :48:32.commemorating here in the town centre, which gives me an idea for
:48:33. > :48:35.a Daily Politics by-election quiz. When was the last time you went to
:48:36. > :48:39.the chippy and what did you have? About three days ago,
:48:40. > :48:41.fish chips and peas. There's one next door here, and I
:48:42. > :48:48.have to stop myself going in because I have a terrible diet, so yes,
:48:49. > :48:54.I eat far too many chips. Like, is it a a very green thing,
:48:55. > :48:56.fish and chips? I'm a dietician by profession, what
:48:57. > :49:03.we need is a mixed balanced diet, with lots of fruit and vegetables,
:49:04. > :49:06.and did you know mushy peas count If I'm honest,
:49:07. > :49:15.there is more appetite for fish and We will find out who tastes victory
:49:16. > :49:19.in the early hours of Friday And a full list
:49:20. > :49:27.of candidates standing in the Oldham West and Royton by-election
:49:28. > :49:30.can be found on the BBC website. And to discuss Thursday's
:49:31. > :49:51.by-election there we're joined by Like to The you take a this seat, it
:49:52. > :49:53.is in solid Labour Terry, it has only been two years it hasn't been a
:49:54. > :49:59.Labour seat. It's the kind of seat only been two years it hasn't been a
:50:00. > :50:04.that a Labour opposition, emphasise being in opposition, a by-election
:50:05. > :50:09.it should just automatically win? It is interesting because Oldham is
:50:10. > :50:13.where Ed Miliband faced his first electoral test in Oldham East. When
:50:14. > :50:17.he fought that by-election, the majority went up strongly, whereas
:50:18. > :50:21.everyone expects the majority in Omid ham west to fall. The question
:50:22. > :50:26.is how far, and does the seat fall into the ground of being in jeopardy
:50:27. > :50:31.Do we know if there was much of a personal vote for Michael Meacher?
:50:32. > :50:35.He represented that seat forever, and he was well-known locally. They
:50:36. > :50:43.have another strong local candidate fighting Labour this time, from the
:50:44. > :50:46.sort of centre-right of the party, does the Labour candidate, the lack
:50:47. > :50:51.of Michael Meacher is that a factor? It could be. Long-term MPs
:50:52. > :50:53.of Michael Meacher is that a factor? personal follows, they become part
:50:54. > :50:58.of the local furniture and it may play into an issue that Labour have
:50:59. > :51:03.to worry about, which is turn out. We have this election at the begins
:51:04. > :51:06.of December. The weather is awful there, there may have been voters
:51:07. > :51:09.who would have been willing to turn out for Michael but not for a
:51:10. > :51:17.candidate who is perhaps not as familiar to them. We are all here,
:51:18. > :51:21.just, obsesses isn't the word, we are amazed at what is going on at
:51:22. > :51:27.the Labour Party at the minute and following every move that Mr Corbyn
:51:28. > :51:33.makes, is there evidence thosing having cut through to the voters in
:51:34. > :51:37.a constituency like Oldham. That is one of the things we will watch the
:51:38. > :51:40.results for. There is two things we want to watch for, firstly what
:51:41. > :51:45.happens to Labour vote in white working class areas where a lot of
:51:46. > :51:49.the polling suggests Mr Corbyn is not popular and what happens to the
:51:50. > :51:55.Conservative vote. It is about 20% Conservative vote. We don't know how
:51:56. > :51:59.they will react, whether they will back a Ukip candidate on the basis
:52:00. > :52:06.when we look at the national polls Conservatives dislike Mr Corbyn a
:52:07. > :52:11.lot. Will they vote for Ukip on an anyone but Jezza vote. They might do
:52:12. > :52:16.that? That is what happened in the late 90s when people were hack off
:52:17. > :52:19.with the give it Government. The Liberal Democrats benefitted, with
:52:20. > :52:25.northern Conservative voters say we can't win round here but we can send
:52:26. > :52:29.a message about rejecting the current Labour leadership by voting
:52:30. > :52:34.for the Ukip candidate. So we are looking at three variables here,
:52:35. > :52:41.whether the Tory vote collapses in favour of Ukip, how big the turn out
:52:42. > :52:46.will be in the British Asian community. Voting still loyally for
:52:47. > :52:49.Labour and how bill the defections of the white working class Labour
:52:50. > :52:54.vote to Ukip, is that the way to look at it. That is is right. That
:52:55. > :53:02.is the big searabouts, I would add what pre-Budget reportion of the
:53:03. > :53:08.white working class vote, and stay home. You are right. Tory tactical
:53:09. > :53:13.voting, and turn out among the south Asian community will decide the
:53:14. > :53:16.seat. It makes it hard to, I mean, we all think that the Labour
:53:17. > :53:26.majority will be substantially reduced. It is 14,000, o -- 14700 at
:53:27. > :53:29.the last election. It is hard to be sure how the cookie crumbles.
:53:30. > :53:34.Exactly. You would have to say Labour go in favourites because of
:53:35. > :53:39.the sheer size of that cushion. It is a 35% majority. You shouldn't be
:53:40. > :53:43.losing seats like that under any circumstances but we don't know if
:53:44. > :53:47.it will be a narrow hold. If it is, that is a big problem, if they lose
:53:48. > :53:53.the seat it is a huge problem. Losing would be huge but narrow, a
:53:54. > :53:57.win is a win kind of thing, even if it is a bit embarrassing you count
:53:58. > :54:02.hold it by thousands of votes. I think that is is right. Labour might
:54:03. > :54:06.do better than we are hearing here. The kind of policies that Michael
:54:07. > :54:11.Meacher espoused are close to Jeremy Corbyn's. For people who want a
:54:12. > :54:15.candidate who is more to the centre, someone who appears to be popular
:54:16. > :54:20.and well-known Labour candidate locally. It might not be as grim as
:54:21. > :54:27.we have been haring. We shall see. Thank you for coming on. We will see
:54:28. > :54:33.the outcome and viewers will know we off the back of This Week on
:54:34. > :54:36.Thursday night, we will morph into the this Week the by-election
:54:37. > :54:42.special. We will be with you all through the night until we get the
:54:43. > :54:46.count from Oldham. It is turning out to be an interesting by-election.
:54:47. > :54:48.That is one for night owls. Some of you have to join us, we don't like
:54:49. > :54:52.to talk to ourselves. Time now to give you
:54:53. > :54:55.the answer to our quiz. The question was what's eating
:54:56. > :55:11.the House of Lords. Car line, do you know the answer? I
:55:12. > :55:16.was going to say a combination of all of them. I think I would put my
:55:17. > :55:23.money on the moths. And your money would be right on the moths. That is
:55:24. > :55:30.what is happening. Indeed, they are apparently devouring the soft
:55:31. > :55:33.furnishing in the upper chamber, including the famous Woolsack, which
:55:34. > :55:40.the Lord speaker, is that the name, sits on? That is the one who chairs
:55:41. > :55:56.the Lord's, his Woolsack is in trouble. What should they do. We are
:55:57. > :56:01.joined by a Lepidopterist. Welcome to the programme. Do woe
:56:02. > :56:05.know why the moths are suddenly started to appear like this in the
:56:06. > :56:09.Lords and cause this problem? It is a perfect place for them to live
:56:10. > :56:15.really because of all the natural fibre, you have the wool in the wool
:56:16. > :56:24.seat, you have got horse hair in all the benches and everything, and they
:56:25. > :56:29.just like dull, dusty dinghy places, perfect, -- dingy places.
:56:30. > :56:34.Why has it taken them so long to find out? Every now and again
:56:35. > :56:38.populations do explode, and, so every now and again the conditions
:56:39. > :56:43.are great for them. I the populations explode and they are a
:56:44. > :56:49.big problem. We have 2,500 species of moth in the UK and only six like
:56:50. > :56:54.to eat natural fibres and only two which is the case bearing clothes
:56:55. > :57:01.moth get big enough numbers to cause damage. Do you think maybe they came
:57:02. > :57:05.in on some of the members' clothes? I mean, I don't really know. I
:57:06. > :57:11.suppose it is possible if they have an old suit. A lot have old suits.
:57:12. > :57:21.They have big ermine things as well. It must be like a holiday for moths.
:57:22. > :57:26.Stay in the ermine for a couple of week, enjoy myself, the. It is warm,
:57:27. > :57:32.damp humid and there are dark nooks and crannies under the bench, so if
:57:33. > :57:35.you don't get in with the vacuum cleaner it's a perfect breeding
:57:36. > :57:39.ground for them. When word gets round it is will more than the
:57:40. > :57:47.moths. Who knows what could come in here next. It will be like a horror
:57:48. > :57:55.movie. It is probably a great echo system. How do you get rid of it.
:57:56. > :58:01.Because I work for a conservation organisation it is not my forte,
:58:02. > :58:06.what they can do is they can clean, be very clean, Hoover in the nooks
:58:07. > :58:13.and crannies. Keep the place clean... Any jumpers or anything
:58:14. > :58:17.like that, if they have egg ones, wash them and freeze them. They tend
:58:18. > :58:22.to like dirty jumpers over clean ones. The place is riddled with
:58:23. > :58:29.them. I am not surprised they are there. Does a moth have any function
:58:30. > :58:34.for humans? Completely. Moths are really important pollinctors of
:58:35. > :58:37.plants. Even knows that bees are important, but butterflies and moths
:58:38. > :58:44.are too an they are really important food for bats and birds. I need to
:58:45. > :58:48.stop you. Leave them alone is the message. The One O'Clock News is
:58:49. > :58:53.starting on BBC One. I will be here for Jo tomorrow at the earlier time
:58:54. > :58:54.of 11am. We will go through to 1.00. A Daily Politics special on that big
:58:55. > :59:01.debate on Syria. '..Viking, North Utsire,
:59:02. > :59:04.South Utsire, East Forties, 'southeasterly four or five,
:59:05. > :59:09.increasing six or seven,