:00:37. > :00:38.Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics.
:00:39. > :00:41.A convincing win for Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party
:00:42. > :00:49.So is Mr Corbyn as electorally toxic at his critics suggest?
:00:50. > :00:53.As British planes continue to bombard IS targets in Syria,
:00:54. > :00:56.further doubt is cast on the Prime Minister's claim that 70,000
:00:57. > :01:02.rebels on the ground are ready to help eradicate IS.
:01:03. > :01:05.David Cameron seems to be having a bit of trouble convincing other
:01:06. > :01:09.European leaders to agree to his plans for the UK's new
:01:10. > :01:15.So will he win any significant reforms?
:01:16. > :01:18.He used to hug huskies and talk about the environment.
:01:19. > :01:27.We look back at David Cameron's decade as Conservative leader.
:01:28. > :01:34.When I first heard David was standing, my reaction was that that
:01:35. > :01:38.was ambitious, but not to be taken terribly seriously.
:01:39. > :01:42.And with us for the whole of the programme today are
:01:43. > :01:44.Francis Elliott, political editor of The Times, and Ben Chacko,
:01:45. > :01:51.Now, the Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has hailed a vote of confidence
:01:52. > :01:55.in his party after it comfortably held the Oldham West and Royton
:01:56. > :01:59.Mr Corbyn headed to Oldham this morning
:02:00. > :02:14.This campaign shows just how strong our party is, not just here in
:02:15. > :02:19.President Obama, but all over the country. It shows the way we have
:02:20. > :02:23.driven the Tories back on tax credits, on police cuts, on their
:02:24. > :02:29.whole austerity agenda and narrative -- here in Oldham. It shows just how
:02:30. > :02:30.strong, how deep-rooted and how broad our party, the Labour Party,
:02:31. > :02:31.is for the whole of Britain. Thank you very much, everybody,
:02:32. > :02:34.for your support for Jim. Now let's look in more detail
:02:35. > :02:41.at the by-election result. Labour's candidate Jim McMahon
:02:42. > :02:47.won comfortably with 17209 votes, Ukip came second with 6,487 votes,
:02:48. > :02:56.with the Conservatives Turnout in the by-election was 40%,
:02:57. > :03:07.down from 60% Compared with the general election
:03:08. > :03:15.in May, there was a swing And Labour's share of
:03:16. > :03:38.the vote increased by 7%, while the Adam Fleming was in Oldham last
:03:39. > :03:43.week. They vote of confidence for Jeremy Corbyn? If only it was as
:03:44. > :03:47.simple as that. That is what the Labour leadership and Jeremy Corbyn
:03:48. > :03:51.supporters are saying. They say Ukip tried to make it into a referendum
:03:52. > :03:56.on Jeremy Corbyn's leadership. I saw plenty of examples of Ukip having a
:03:57. > :04:00.leaflet with Jeremy Corbyn's face plastered over it. But when you
:04:01. > :04:03.spoke to people on the streets in Oldham West, it was not hard to find
:04:04. > :04:09.Labour supporters who were unconvinced about Jeremy Corbyn.
:04:10. > :04:13.Some people really didn't like him. Some Labour supporters were a bit
:04:14. > :04:20.nonplussed by him. But it looks like they all came out and voted in large
:04:21. > :04:24.numbers, despite that. The Labour fear was that their core supporters
:04:25. > :04:28.wouldn't come out and vote at all. So it is difficult for Jeremy
:04:29. > :04:32.Corbyn's supporters to say this is a ringing endorsement of him, but
:04:33. > :04:36.equally if God for Jeremy Corbyn's opponents to say that Jeremy
:04:37. > :04:41.Corbyn's leadership subject for Labour in Oldham, because it didn't.
:04:42. > :04:44.The result was better than many Labour MPs expected, even if he was
:04:45. > :04:49.not at the centre of this campaign. He only went once up there and
:04:50. > :04:53.rushed up there following the result. Where does that leave those
:04:54. > :04:58.who have criticised Jeremy Corbyn from within the Parliamentary Labour
:04:59. > :05:02.Party? Well, it has deprived them of the opportunity that some of them
:05:03. > :05:09.were hoping for, which was to be able to go out on the airwaves and
:05:10. > :05:14.say, we nearly lost Oldham West, or we lost it because of Jeremy
:05:15. > :05:18.Corbyn's leadership. Now, any attempt to get rid of him or creates
:05:19. > :05:22.some Momentum to get rid of him will be put off to further in the
:05:23. > :05:26.future. So it deprives his opponents of that, and it has given his
:05:27. > :05:32.supporters and other Jimmy Choo to say, it was Jeremy Watt won it for
:05:33. > :05:37.us, although it is not possible to prove that. Ukip did not do as well
:05:38. > :05:42.as they hoped, although they came second. All of these results are
:05:43. > :05:46.about managing expectations. Nigel Farage is not happy? To put it
:05:47. > :05:52.mildly. He has been on the airwaves this morning, saying it was a fix.
:05:53. > :05:57.He said the postal votes were bent on Twitter in this constituency. And
:05:58. > :06:00.he went even further when he spoke to our colleagues on BBC Breakfast
:06:01. > :06:03.this morning, when he said that because of migration and the
:06:04. > :06:08.behaviour of ethnic minority communities when they vote, in some
:06:09. > :06:15.areas of Britain, democracy is dead when it comes to by-elections like
:06:16. > :06:20.this. I am talking particularly about by-elections. Don't forget, we
:06:21. > :06:23.have had time. We have had Birmingham. We have repeatedly had
:06:24. > :06:30.evidence of fraud within the postal voting system. I think it is
:06:31. > :06:34.democracy should be clean. And with this system, it is not. And there is
:06:35. > :06:38.a second big element to why Jeremy Corbyn got this victory. It is an
:06:39. > :06:41.observation. I am not commenting, but the Northern correspondent of
:06:42. > :06:45.the Guardian wrote last Saturday that she knocked on doors in streets
:06:46. > :06:49.in Oldham where nobody spoke English, never be heard of Jeremy
:06:50. > :06:54.Corbyn, but they were all voting Labour. So there is a large ethnic
:06:55. > :07:00.vote in this country, in our cities, who vote Labour. In one of the boxes
:07:01. > :07:07.last night, it was 99% Labour. The electoral process is almost dead in
:07:08. > :07:11.those areas. According to Ukip sources, this morning, they are
:07:12. > :07:14.reviewing the evidence they have got and then deciding whether to proceed
:07:15. > :07:22.with a formal complaint with the returning officer in Oldham or to
:07:23. > :07:25.the police. Oldham Council say they have not received a complaint from
:07:26. > :07:31.Ukip yet, and Greater Manchester say the same thing. Nigel Farage talked
:07:32. > :07:35.about the Guardian north of England correspondent. I was with her on
:07:36. > :07:39.Friday at prayers at old central mosque a week ago today, along with
:07:40. > :07:46.the Liberal Democrats and the Conservative candidates. And all of
:07:47. > :07:49.us saw some of the worshippers arriving at the central mosque at
:07:50. > :07:53.Friday prayers, cutting their postal votes and their polling cards. It
:07:54. > :07:57.was just a handful of people, maybe three or four. I did not ask anyone
:07:58. > :08:02.about it, but it was an interesting thing to see. We have spoken to
:08:03. > :08:07.Oldham central mosque today, who say they do not have a of allowing
:08:08. > :08:11.political campaigning on their site. So they say there are lots of
:08:12. > :08:14.reasons people might have brought their postal vote along, maybe to
:08:15. > :08:17.discuss it with their friends and family, talk about how they were
:08:18. > :08:22.going to vote. They wanted to reinforce that there have been no
:08:23. > :08:28.official complaints of electoral fraud in Oldham West and Royton.
:08:29. > :08:32.Before I let you go, tells about another story regarding MPs'
:08:33. > :08:39.expenses? You are getting your money's worth today! Yesterday, it
:08:40. > :08:41.lost compliance officer, he is the ombudsman for the Parliamentary
:08:42. > :08:47.expenses watchdog, published a report about the goings-on with the
:08:48. > :08:54.MPs' expenses system between April last year and March this year. And a
:08:55. > :08:58.little noticed paragraph. They said there were three cases that were
:08:59. > :09:01.considered so serious about MPs' expenses that they were referred to
:09:02. > :09:07.the Metropolitan Police for investigation. This morning, we have
:09:08. > :09:11.had a statement from the Metropolitan Police, saying that one
:09:12. > :09:16.of those cases has been dropped. But we understand a member of MPs' staff
:09:17. > :09:20.was issued with a caution. Another two cases of MPs' expenses are now
:09:21. > :09:26.officially being investigated by the Metropolitan Police. We don't know
:09:27. > :09:32.who these MPs are or how much money it is concerning or any details like
:09:33. > :09:37.that, you can bet that Fleet Street's finest will be trying to
:09:38. > :09:40.work out who these people are. We are not aware of any arrests, or
:09:41. > :09:48.even if these MPs themselves have been interviewed by the police.
:09:49. > :09:53.Ben Chacko, do you think they will be breathing a sigh of relief in
:09:54. > :09:58.Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell's leadership? They will be in courage
:09:59. > :10:02.by the result. A lot of people have been talking as if Jeremy is some
:10:03. > :10:05.sort of massive electoral liability, and that has been proved wrong.
:10:06. > :10:11.There was a swing to Labour since the general election, doubly
:10:12. > :10:19.impressive when you think that he is -- it was a new candidate. So this
:10:20. > :10:24.blows out of the water the idea that the new Labour Leader is unpopular.
:10:25. > :10:27.Although he didn't go to the constituency, people are saying it
:10:28. > :10:31.was because they didn't want him there and it might damage the
:10:32. > :10:34.chances of Jim McMahon, a popular local candidate. I think Jeremy is
:10:35. > :10:40.often damned if he does and damned if he doesn't on these questions. He
:10:41. > :10:45.did go to Oldham. He may not have been there all the time, he has a
:10:46. > :10:48.lot to do. But if he had done badly, people would have said this is a
:10:49. > :10:53.referendum on Jeremy's leadership. Now that he has done well, people
:10:54. > :10:57.are saying it has nothing to do with Jeremy, which doesn't wash. He has
:10:58. > :11:02.passed his first test. Absolutely. Had he failed, you could be sure we
:11:03. > :11:08.would be all over Jeremy Corbyn's leadership. I take issue with you on
:11:09. > :11:20.the idea that Jim McMahon wasn't a factor in this. As a council Leader,
:11:21. > :11:24.he is a rising star and a popular figure. The name recognition was
:11:25. > :11:29.extremely strong on the doorstep, as I understand it, and they ran a very
:11:30. > :11:34.hyper local campaign. They did everything they could not talk about
:11:35. > :11:45.Jeremy, so it is not really a mandate for Corbyn. These people
:11:46. > :11:51.will now get back in their box. There will be those Sunday -- those
:11:52. > :11:54.Sunday columns which would have said, Jeremy must now go, will
:11:55. > :12:00.quietly be toned down or dropped. They might be rewritten.
:12:01. > :12:03.Now, despite the euphoria of today's victory, it hasn't been the best
:12:04. > :12:05.week for Labour, with the party's divisions over Syria dominating much
:12:06. > :12:08.Reports that some MPs who voted in favour
:12:09. > :12:11.of air strikes have been abused on social media have reignited
:12:12. > :12:15.concern that MPs not toeing the leader's line will be deselected in
:12:16. > :12:22.But what's the current process for incumbent Labour MPs
:12:23. > :12:28.Normally, if a sitting MP wishes to stand for re-election, he or she
:12:29. > :12:31.must first win a majority of votes in a so-called trigger ballot.
:12:32. > :12:35.In this, members of a local constituency party's units and
:12:36. > :12:39.affiliates, including trade unions, are entitled to vote on a simple
:12:40. > :12:45.To be re-selected, an MP needs a majority
:12:46. > :12:50.of yes nominations from those individual units and affiliates.
:12:51. > :12:53.If unsuccessful, a full selection procedure for a new
:12:54. > :12:57.prospective parliamentary candidate is undertaken, in which the current
:12:58. > :13:01.MP's name is automatically placed on the shortlist.
:13:02. > :13:04.If successful in the trigger ballot, the MP then must receive
:13:05. > :13:07.the endorsement of Labour's National Executive
:13:08. > :13:12.Committee to be the official party candidate in that constituency.
:13:13. > :13:18.But boundary changes due to be introduced in time for the next
:13:19. > :13:25.election will reduce the number of constituencies from 650 to 600.
:13:26. > :13:30.This has some self-styled moderate Labour MPs, such as Simon Danczuk,
:13:31. > :13:33.worried they'll lose out to more left-wing candidates
:13:34. > :13:36.in the selection process for the new constituencies.
:13:37. > :13:40.Some Labour MPs sceptical of Mr Corbyn's leadership have expressed
:13:41. > :13:44.worry that the new grassroots group Momentum may prove to be
:13:45. > :13:50.But Momentum has explicitly said it "will not campaign for the
:13:51. > :13:53.deselection of any MP", which, it says, is "entirely a matter
:13:54. > :14:00.Last week, Jeremy Corbyn said he wanted to make it crystal clear
:14:01. > :14:03.he did not support any changes to Labour's rules to make it easier
:14:04. > :14:20.Joining me now via webcam is Labour MP Stephen Kinnock.
:14:21. > :14:30.Do you welcome the presence of this grassroots organisation Momentum in
:14:31. > :14:34.the Labour Party to I don't have a problem with any group that wants to
:14:35. > :14:41.give its views, advise the Labour Party. We are an open and listening
:14:42. > :14:46.organisation. What I do not accept is if that group is involved in
:14:47. > :14:52.orchestrating a campaign of intimidation or bullying against any
:14:53. > :14:58.of our Labour MPs. I think if there is evidence of that sort of
:14:59. > :15:02.orchestration going on, disciplinary processes need to take place
:15:03. > :15:08.immediately, particularly where there are members of the Labour
:15:09. > :15:12.Party involved. I want to keep the debate civilised. Have you got any
:15:13. > :15:15.evidence that there is an orchestrated campaign of
:15:16. > :15:22.intimidating MPs that do not agree with some of the basic policies of
:15:23. > :15:28.momentum? No, what I have seen is people going to Stella Creasy's
:15:29. > :15:32.house, Peter Kyle's office. We need to examine carefully who those
:15:33. > :15:37.people were. If there is evidence any of the people involved for party
:15:38. > :15:40.members, the disciplinary procedures need to start. When you have
:15:41. > :15:45.demonstrations like that, it only takes one smart Alec to throw a
:15:46. > :15:52.stone through a window. Sometimes people's families are involved.
:15:53. > :15:55.Going to people's homes and doing this is completely unacceptable. We
:15:56. > :15:59.need to look carefully at who is involved in these mobs on the
:16:00. > :16:05.streets. And if Labour Party members are involved, there have to be
:16:06. > :16:11.consequences. But as yet you do not know if they were Labour Party
:16:12. > :16:17.members? I don't know. That is why it has to be investigated. I welcome
:16:18. > :16:20.the fact that Jeremy and Tom Watson have condemned this. The same goes
:16:21. > :16:26.for appending -- sending pictures of severed heads and calling people
:16:27. > :16:30.warmongers. We have to be careful with the language we use. That
:16:31. > :16:34.creates a permissive environment in which things can escalate and
:16:35. > :16:41.become, in the worst case, even violent. The mob on the streets,
:16:42. > :16:42.Stephen Kinnock is talking about, do you not see it like
:16:43. > :16:50.Stephen Kinnock is talking about, do acceptable for people to protest
:16:51. > :16:53.outside the offices of MPs or abused their staff on the phone if they
:16:54. > :16:58.have not voted in a way they think they should? It is
:16:59. > :16:59.have not voted in a way they think acceptable to abuse anybody's staff
:17:00. > :17:06.on the phone. I don't think acceptable to launch personal
:17:07. > :17:12.attacks. But protesting outside a constituency office not intimidate
:17:13. > :17:15.E. I think a lot of MPs are overreacting to the understandable
:17:16. > :17:20.anger when they do not respect the feeling in the party more widely,
:17:21. > :17:25.when they do not respect the leader. So you say these are Labour Party
:17:26. > :17:30.members? I have been at Momentum meetings and you see a mix of
:17:31. > :17:33.people. I don't know if there is any evidence that Momentum have
:17:34. > :17:38.organised this. You have a huge number of new people in the Labour
:17:39. > :17:41.Party. A lot of the old constituency party meetings are dull and
:17:42. > :17:46.workmanlike. This is an effort to make the party more fun for young
:17:47. > :17:51.people coming in. But they are not happy with some of the MPs, members
:17:52. > :17:55.of Momentum? They have said they are not involved with any campaign of
:17:56. > :17:59.intimidation but they are not necessarily happy with the views of
:18:00. > :18:04.some Labour MPs? Of course they are not. You mentioned Simon Danczuk.
:18:05. > :18:10.There are certain MPs, and I would include him, who have actually
:18:11. > :18:13.really given... They have not missed a single opportunity to stick the
:18:14. > :18:17.knife into the new leadership. We have a much bigger membership of the
:18:18. > :18:19.Labour Party now. And we do have a difference of opinion between Labour
:18:20. > :18:24.Party members and the parliamentary party. I think there needs to be
:18:25. > :18:29.some patience and understanding on both sides of that golf. There are
:18:30. > :18:32.MPs who are flagrantly disrespecting that change and disrespecting their
:18:33. > :18:39.leader and people get angry about that. Do you accept that, that there
:18:40. > :18:43.are MPs like Simon Danczuk who are provocative and inflaming feelings
:18:44. > :18:48.which are obviously quite tense within the Labour Party? That there
:18:49. > :18:53.is a big gap between the Labour Party, the Parliamentary Labour
:18:54. > :18:56.Party, and the leadership? I think some of what Simon has written in
:18:57. > :19:02.the Daily Mail is unfortunate. I condemn personal attacks in general.
:19:03. > :19:06.Jeremy has rightly distanced himself from personal attacks and talks
:19:07. > :19:10.about a new kind of politics. Both sides have to play that game. What I
:19:11. > :19:13.would say is that MPs are not delegates. They are not the
:19:14. > :19:17.delegates of their membership. They have to take the views of their
:19:18. > :19:23.membership into account. But we represent our constituencies. When
:19:24. > :19:27.we go to parliament we are representing our constituencies. The
:19:28. > :19:32.key thing for us is the whip. That is decided by the Shadow Cabinet.
:19:33. > :19:34.While I accept the point that the voice of members is important, we
:19:35. > :19:39.are not delegates going to a conference. We are members of
:19:40. > :19:45.parliament elected by a constituency. Should centrist MPs be
:19:46. > :19:50.worried about the selection? I hope not. The key is, are you an MP that
:19:51. > :19:54.is performing and delivering? Are you standing up for your
:19:55. > :19:58.constituents in Parliament? Are you being an ambassador for your
:19:59. > :20:03.constituency in Parliament and taking decisions according to your
:20:04. > :20:08.conscience, but also according to the whip? If you are delivering all
:20:09. > :20:11.of those points, then it is absolutely unacceptable that there
:20:12. > :20:15.is any and a fifth column within the Labour Party organising against
:20:16. > :20:22.people because you do not happen to have the same political view as that
:20:23. > :20:27.fifth column. A fifth column developing. Is that how people feel
:20:28. > :20:35.within the Labour Party to and people certainly feel that. And some
:20:36. > :20:41.people would object to hear that they are overreacting to being
:20:42. > :20:46.trolled. What about the selection? We have conflated two things. The
:20:47. > :20:49.SNP had the same problem. Nicola Sturgeon had a massive problem with
:20:50. > :20:54.online trolls in Scotland. It took them a while to get there. They have
:20:55. > :21:01.done so. They have to have a better disciplinary procedure to separate
:21:02. > :21:07.out people overstepping the mark. Momentum had a point when they say
:21:08. > :21:13.they are just a vehicle. The party is a mass movement. It is a
:21:14. > :21:18.different political organisation. It is there to become more closely
:21:19. > :21:24.aligned with the party leadership. But deselection is really all about
:21:25. > :21:29.the boundary review. In London, I hadn't appreciated this until today,
:21:30. > :21:31.that is all up for grabs. No London MP can be sure who is going to go
:21:32. > :21:37.through this procedure that you mentioned. They do feel very, very
:21:38. > :21:45.nervous and uncertain and freaked out. I just think they need to get
:21:46. > :21:51.better at kind of knowing who their members are and consulting with
:21:52. > :21:54.them, perhaps. These seats will all be up for grabs following the
:21:55. > :22:00.boundary review. Isn't there an overreaction from MPs who are saying
:22:01. > :22:06.there are under pressure -- they are under pressure, when actually you
:22:07. > :22:14.are going to have to go through this process of a boundary review? Is
:22:15. > :22:21.that to me? Yes. Let's not panic. The fact is we have a leader who was
:22:22. > :22:25.1001 when he entered the race. He is now leader of the Labour Party.
:22:26. > :22:29.Clearly an earthquake has hit the party. We have to come together,
:22:30. > :22:33.figure out where we're going, get some cohesion back into the party,
:22:34. > :22:40.let's close that gap between membership and PLP. The boundary
:22:41. > :22:44.reviews will will not take place. I may well be affected. I may have a
:22:45. > :22:50.trigger ballots and if I do I will be fighting as hard as I can to
:22:51. > :22:57.retain my seat. But in the end, are you out there as an MP standing up
:22:58. > :23:03.for your constituencies and doing what you are supposed to do? Those
:23:04. > :23:08.who are have to continue as MPs. It would be unprecedented. Normally
:23:09. > :23:13.when MPs are reselected, it is a formality. Is it acceptable for
:23:14. > :23:17.people to say to MPs, you did not vote the right way on Syria, you
:23:18. > :23:23.will face deselection, which is what has been reported? But they need to
:23:24. > :23:27.fall in line or face deselection. MPs have to be held to account for
:23:28. > :23:31.what they have done. A lot of people in this country feel that a lot of
:23:32. > :23:38.MPs in Westminster Philae have a job for life, it is very comfortable. If
:23:39. > :23:43.they won big majorities, they have the trust of their constituents. If
:23:44. > :23:46.they are doing a good job, that is a different matter. I don't think MPs
:23:47. > :23:54.should feel they have an automatic right to be there party candidate
:23:55. > :23:58.automatically. Do you think it is right to fill the Labour Party with
:23:59. > :24:02.grassroots members like Momentum who will have a bigger voter influence
:24:03. > :24:07.in the selection process? I don't think that is quite right. There has
:24:08. > :24:12.been a huge influx of new members to the Labour Party and these people
:24:13. > :24:15.want to have a say on who is going to be standing at the next election.
:24:16. > :24:21.I don't think there is anything sinister about that.
:24:22. > :24:27.The prime lister has insisted British warplanes will help to bring
:24:28. > :24:30.about a settlement in Syria, despite the claim that the UK action will
:24:31. > :24:35.not make any difference. The Prime Minister claimed there were 70,000
:24:36. > :24:38.opposition fighters who could take on IS in Syria. This morning it is
:24:39. > :24:42.reported that senior military figures had serious doubts about the
:24:43. > :24:45.claim. Here is a reminder of what David Cameron said last week.
:24:46. > :24:47.In Syria, the situation is more complex.
:24:48. > :24:50.But as the report I'm publishing today shows, we believe there are
:24:51. > :24:51.around 70,000 Syrian opposition fighters,
:24:52. > :24:53.principally the Free Syrian Army,
:24:54. > :24:57.who do not belong to extremist groups, and with whom we
:24:58. > :25:02.In addition, there are the Kurdish armed groups,
:25:03. > :25:07.who have also shown themselves capable of taking territory,
:25:08. > :25:12.holding territory and administering it
:25:13. > :25:16.And crucially relieving the suffering that the civilian
:25:17. > :25:18.population had endured under Isil control.
:25:19. > :25:19.I'm joined now by Elizabeth Quintana,
:25:20. > :25:26.at the Royal United Services Institute.
:25:27. > :25:35.Is that figure reliable, 70,000 fighters? Charles Lister from
:25:36. > :25:39.Britain's Institute is probably the best authority. There are around
:25:40. > :25:48.75,000 forces from 100 different factions in Syria. That is in
:25:49. > :25:51.addition to the larger groups. The problem is they are rather
:25:52. > :25:57.disparate. They are fighting in specific areas and defending local
:25:58. > :26:00.populations in those areas. And they have not really been properly
:26:01. > :26:10.supported by the West and so do not have that unified grouping as Jabhat
:26:11. > :26:17.al-Nusra have. Yes, they do exist. If you add the other groups, that is
:26:18. > :26:22.more than 100,000. And people in Syria. There are significant numbers
:26:23. > :26:27.but could they be used in a unified effort? Probably not at the moment.
:26:28. > :26:30.You have written today about the reliability of that figure in terms
:26:31. > :26:37.of David Cameron using it. And the bases for his argument to back air
:26:38. > :26:41.strikes. The worry among some military officials was not actually
:26:42. > :26:47.the political number that was used. It was using any number. Using any
:26:48. > :26:50.number would possibly lead, exactly as has happened, into a debate about
:26:51. > :26:58.whether that is the right number or not. It is our understanding that
:26:59. > :27:04.there was a concern raised as this information document was produced,
:27:05. > :27:08.that this was a mistake. An entirely understandable concern given recent
:27:09. > :27:11.history of intelligence documents produced to justify military action
:27:12. > :27:15.in that part of the world. It has already led us to
:27:16. > :27:19.in that part of the world. It has Defence Select Committee
:27:20. > :27:23.in that part of the world. It has them bogus battalions of
:27:24. > :27:26.in that part of the world. It has fighters. Is this going to echo the
:27:27. > :27:34.criticisms of the Iraq war? It is. I'm sure that The One Show are very
:27:35. > :27:38.worried about that. -- I'm sure that Downing Street are very worried
:27:39. > :27:43.about that. We have no evidence that David Cameron was told about these
:27:44. > :27:48.concerns. So the analogy is not exact. But yes, Cameron was under
:27:49. > :27:50.pressure about this figure before our story, during the debate, even
:27:51. > :27:58.before the debate. Those warnings appear to have been accurate. This
:27:59. > :28:02.is now going to be a question of, why did you use this
:28:03. > :28:03.is now going to be a question of, that figure? How wise was it for the
:28:04. > :28:11.Prime Minister to use it as a that figure? How wise was it for the
:28:12. > :28:16.for residing meant? -- for his argument? Very reasonably people
:28:17. > :28:19.were asking whether there was anything other than air strikes in
:28:20. > :28:25.the plan. What the Prime Minister was trying to do is say, yes, we are
:28:26. > :28:30.aware of the fabric of Syria and we have seen this week the US and
:28:31. > :28:34.announce an increase in special forces, which will conduct raids
:28:35. > :28:41.alongside Kurdish and Iraqi special forces from Iraq into Syria.
:28:42. > :28:44.Following the vote today in Germany and
:28:45. > :28:47.Following the vote today in Germany that other Nato members may also
:28:48. > :28:51.join the coalition, I think this should be seen as a kind of stepping
:28:52. > :29:01.up of the overall US led coalition effort. Yes, not necessarily very
:29:02. > :29:05.wise to use specific figures but as indicative of people knowing what
:29:06. > :29:13.they are doing, then yes. You have to build confidence in some way. The
:29:14. > :29:17.fact is we can dispute the figures but we are talking about a large
:29:18. > :29:24.number of people, rebels, differing groups that are there and may join
:29:25. > :29:31.some sort of ground troop force? I wouldn't much dispute the 70,000
:29:32. > :29:37.figure, as other 70,000 people in Syria with guns? Quite possibly.
:29:38. > :29:47.There are a lot of different groups this is composed of. They very
:29:48. > :29:54.widely in their ideology. -- they vary. That was specifically included
:29:55. > :29:59.from the 70,000 figure. What happened was, they did not quite
:30:00. > :30:06.make clear enough in my view what they meant by Margaret. The point
:30:07. > :30:09.is, is the readiness to fight in any cohesive way, which is going to be
:30:10. > :30:12.the challenge for the Prime Minister, in terms of Saint there
:30:13. > :30:15.will be ground troops, because most military figures say you need ground
:30:16. > :30:29.troops? If they were to fight crisis in
:30:30. > :30:35.Raqqa, they would be leaving behind people with either fewer forces or
:30:36. > :30:39.somewhat exposed. Earlier today, there was an excellent interview on
:30:40. > :30:43.the Today programme with some of the southern -based rebels, who said, if
:30:44. > :30:48.we face as is, will be attacked from the back by regime forces. So it is
:30:49. > :30:55.much more complex than just, who are these people on the ground? But yes,
:30:56. > :30:59.it is all tied very much into the Vienna talks and other discussions
:31:00. > :31:03.such as the talks that Saudi are going to hold with rebel forces in
:31:04. > :31:08.the next couple of weeks. That is the problem, it is a very
:31:09. > :31:13.complicated picture. But if the coalition forces are being built up,
:31:14. > :31:17.David Cameron has a better chance of trying to hold onto his support on
:31:18. > :31:21.this issue. He may have a better chance of holding on to support
:31:22. > :31:25.within Britain. Will it change things on the ground in Syria?
:31:26. > :31:29.Probably not. He mentioned the Kurds as our allies, but our Nato ally
:31:30. > :31:32.Turkey has been bombing Kurdish positions and has warned Kurdish
:31:33. > :31:36.forces not to retake Isis held towns, because it's as if they are
:31:37. > :31:40.too close to the Turkish border, it will retaliate massively. So I don't
:31:41. > :31:48.see how we have a strategy to attack Isis when we are still in alliance
:31:49. > :31:51.with countries like Turkey, which are assisting Isis in this war. They
:31:52. > :31:54.would deny that they are assisting Isis. They are hitting the Kurds,
:31:55. > :31:57.but you cannot go so far as to say they are doing that. There is
:31:58. > :32:02.evidence that the Turks are buying oil from Isis. There are claims of
:32:03. > :32:09.that. It is so complicated. Nobody is clear who is fighting for whom
:32:10. > :32:17.want it gets Biondi air strikes. But as Cameron said, it is messy, and it
:32:18. > :32:21.is a messy solution. Ultimately, his point was that the cost of inaction
:32:22. > :32:24.is worse than the cost of action. And just to say that it is
:32:25. > :32:27.complicated is not an argument for not doing anything.
:32:28. > :32:31.David Cameron has admitted that he won't be able to get a deal
:32:32. > :32:34.on his EU reform aims in time for the summit of European leaders
:32:35. > :32:37.The Prime Minister, who has just returned from talks
:32:38. > :32:40.in Bulgaria, says good progress has been made, but there are still
:32:41. > :32:43.Mr Cameron made the announcement after speaking to the
:32:44. > :32:46.David McAllister is a German member of the European Parliament and
:32:47. > :32:49.Ms Merkel's representative for contacts in the UK.
:32:50. > :32:51.He popped in to the studio yesterday.
:32:52. > :32:53.I began by asking if Mrs Merkel had scuppered
:32:54. > :33:00.We're talking about very complicated details.
:33:01. > :33:03.The Prime Minister said he wanted to get the substance right, so it's
:33:04. > :33:08.better to have a broad discussion at the council in December
:33:09. > :33:12.and then find a solution as soon as possible, perhaps in February.
:33:13. > :33:14.But she obviously put the brakes on it
:33:15. > :33:18.if they had a conversation and he had already made clear following his
:33:19. > :33:21.letter to leaders that he wanted a deal by the summit in mid-December,
:33:22. > :33:26.Well, if you read the letter by the prime minister, he said it was his
:33:27. > :33:31.ambition to get a deal in December, but he also said it was important
:33:32. > :33:36.And we now see there are some issues presented by the British
:33:37. > :33:41.Others are more difficult, and some are highly problematic.
:33:42. > :33:48.So I believe that after the council, a working group will be set up
:33:49. > :33:51.where certain details are negotiated and then we can get
:33:52. > :33:53.a good deal in February, or even later.
:33:54. > :33:57.Which is the problematic bit in terms of David Cameron's demands?
:33:58. > :34:04.The most difficult one is the four-year ban on qualifying
:34:05. > :34:11.because there is a fundamental principle of the European Union.
:34:12. > :34:15.There can be no discrimination against EU citizens.
:34:16. > :34:18.All EU citizens have to be treated equally.
:34:19. > :34:26.He will not be able to get that, then, will he?
:34:27. > :34:36.I do understand that this is a matter for political debate in this
:34:37. > :34:41.country, that people are annoyed and that people believe this is unfair.
:34:42. > :34:46.But we have to find a solution which is in line with
:34:47. > :34:50.the existing treaties and the four principles of the single
:34:51. > :34:53.market, because the single market is not only about services, goods and
:34:54. > :34:59.But it is clear that David Cameron has said
:35:00. > :35:04.and is reported to have said that he will campaign for Britain to leave
:35:05. > :35:10.the EU unless he can get that four-year exemption from giving
:35:11. > :35:16.in work benefits to workers coming from other countries in the EU.
:35:17. > :35:20.He either gets it, or he will campaign to leave.
:35:21. > :35:23.A lot of people, including me, have thoroughly studied the letter
:35:24. > :35:28.by the Prime Minister, and I think the letter has been a very good
:35:29. > :35:32.basis for the debate which we are now having in all 28 member states.
:35:33. > :35:37.It is important to make the British reform proposals
:35:38. > :35:38.a matter of all 28 member states.
:35:39. > :35:42.that we have to make the European Union more competitive.
:35:43. > :35:45.We have to fight red tape and bureaucracy
:35:46. > :35:47.and make the European Union more effective.
:35:48. > :35:52.There are a lot of good points the Brits have made.
:35:53. > :35:56.A country like Germany is willing to help the UK where we can.
:35:57. > :36:00.But there are some things which are problematic, and that includes
:36:01. > :36:06.I don't see a political solution for a treaty change in the next few
:36:07. > :36:11.The other thing is that we are very much in favour of the existing
:36:12. > :36:15.principles of the single market and the European Union which are
:36:16. > :36:20.So let's find a solution which makes it possible that we can
:36:21. > :36:27.So you think a compromise is possible on that issue by February,
:36:28. > :36:33.Well, there will be a debate at the council in December.
:36:34. > :36:38.The Prime Minister will go into detail on his plans
:36:39. > :36:43.for reform of the EU, and then the other 27 heads of member states will
:36:44. > :36:51.I believe a fair deal for both sides is possible,
:36:52. > :36:53.but it will be a fair deal which covers
:36:54. > :36:56.the understandable interests of the UK,
:36:57. > :36:59.but it will also have to cover the interests
:37:00. > :37:03.Do you think David Cameron was trying to bounce leaders
:37:04. > :37:06.like Angela Merkel into an agreement too quickly?
:37:07. > :37:10.No, the Prime Minister, from the beginning, had his plan.
:37:11. > :37:14.We knew he wanted to go to the December council.
:37:15. > :37:17.He promised to present his proposals way ahead of the council.
:37:18. > :37:25.He gave a speech at Chatham House so that everyone, not only in Brussels,
:37:26. > :37:30.but in all other 27 capitals, knew what the British mission
:37:31. > :37:35.On this basis, we will find a solution.
:37:36. > :37:38.Sometimes, political debates take longer in the European Union,
:37:39. > :37:41.because we are 28 members in our family.
:37:42. > :37:45.David Cameron relies, to some extent, on Angela Merkel.
:37:46. > :37:49.She is seen as a key ally for him in this renegotiation
:37:50. > :37:52.and in general politically within the EU.
:37:53. > :37:56.But her standing in Germany and Europe
:37:57. > :38:01.with her open-door policy, as it was described here,
:38:02. > :38:04.towards migrants and refugees coming from Syria
:38:05. > :38:11.The European Union is a family of 28 sovereign member states
:38:12. > :38:16.But of course, Germany and the UK have a special relationship.
:38:17. > :38:20.Germany and Britain are partners in the G7 and G20, at the UN and Nato.
:38:21. > :38:25.We Germans would like the British to be a strong and active partner in
:38:26. > :38:33.Of course, because the European Union would be a different one.
:38:34. > :38:37.It is up to the people in the UK to decide
:38:38. > :38:42.but from a German point of view, we would like the UK to stay.
:38:43. > :38:45.Because the British are the driving force
:38:46. > :38:53.free trade and making the European Union more competitive
:38:54. > :38:56.that the commission of Jean-Claude Juncker has now launched, like
:38:57. > :39:06.the digital union, the energy union and the single market initiative,
:39:07. > :39:12.Joining me now is Conservative MEP Daniel Hannan.
:39:13. > :39:19.That timetable was always ambitious, by Christmas, but it will
:39:20. > :39:21.be done in February. It has already been done. We are just waiting to
:39:22. > :39:26.be done in February. It has already stage a row. I say it has been done,
:39:27. > :39:29.because nothing of substance is being passed. The UK is pretending
:39:30. > :39:32.to make demands, the EU is pretending to consider them,
:39:33. > :39:35.to make demands, the EU is bottom line is that nothing will
:39:36. > :39:38.change. We will still be members on the existing terms. But if nothing
:39:39. > :39:42.of substance is going to be discussed, why hasn't everyone
:39:43. > :39:45.signed up to it? Because you have to go through the
:39:46. > :39:49.signed up to it? Because you have to aggression. It is a smoke screen. It
:39:50. > :39:54.is being staged in the most openly cynical way. When the leader of an
:39:55. > :39:57.EU member state is reduced to saying, we want more
:39:58. > :40:01.competitiveness, a bromide like that, something that every national
:40:02. > :40:05.politician for the last 40 years has said, and that that is now being
:40:06. > :40:08.politician for the last 40 years has renegotiation, or recognition that
:40:09. > :40:13.the EU has more than one currency, renegotiation, or recognition that
:40:14. > :40:16.why not recognise that the EU has more than one language? How is
:40:17. > :40:20.stating the bloody obvious a concession? That is when you can see
:40:21. > :40:23.that nothing of substance is being asked for. What about the in work
:40:24. > :40:27.benefits and curbing those's we know that goes against one
:40:28. > :40:30.benefits and curbing those's we know cornerstones of the European Union.
:40:31. > :40:36.If there is a compromise of that, that would be seen as a victory.
:40:37. > :40:41.David Cameron began looking for an actual border control. He wanted to
:40:42. > :40:42.be able to set a quota, a total number of people who could come in
:40:43. > :40:47.from the EU, number of people who could come in
:40:48. > :40:52.a very fair thing to do. There will be people watching this now, Brits
:40:53. > :40:56.of Commonwealth backgrounds who have had huge difficulties just getting
:40:57. > :40:59.auntie over for a wedding because of how we have had to crack down on
:41:00. > :41:02.visas from non-EU nationals in order to free up unlimited space for
:41:03. > :41:06.people with no connection to this country. All of that has been
:41:07. > :41:09.plan about benefits that frankly, we plan about benefits that frankly, we
:41:10. > :41:14.can do through domestic legislation anyway and doesn't require treaty
:41:15. > :41:18.change. We have spoken on many occasions, though, and nothing would
:41:19. > :41:24.satisfy you in that regard. That is not true. But to say that there
:41:25. > :41:30.would be a complete status quo, is that accurate? Yes. I have
:41:31. > :41:34.repeatedly set out not just what would satisfy me, but what would
:41:35. > :41:37.satisfy most people. Parliament should ultimately be sovereign. In
:41:38. > :41:41.other words, the EU should not automatically be able to track down
:41:42. > :41:44.parliamentary statutes. We should have more freedom to trade with
:41:45. > :41:47.non-EU countries and we should be able to opt out of areas of EU
:41:48. > :41:54.policy that have nothing to do with economics or trade, such as criminal
:41:55. > :41:56.justice, environment, defence, agriculture and fisheries. If we
:41:57. > :42:03.could get those things, everyone would be in favour of it. Isn't he
:42:04. > :42:05.right? There is nothing of substance in this and they are all playing
:42:06. > :42:13.again. He has just listed things that he knows we will never get.
:42:14. > :42:19.What is unreasonable? The sceptics are coming out with an impossible
:42:20. > :42:23.wish list. And it is said that David Cameron is coming up with an
:42:24. > :42:29.achievable wish list. Or they have been achieved already, Daniel Hannan
:42:30. > :42:37.says. What is the deal they will do? If it has already been done, how
:42:38. > :42:40.will they get four year ban on my grant benefits through? I suspect it
:42:41. > :42:46.will be wrapped into the shift in domestic policies towards universal
:42:47. > :42:51.credit. So there will be no discrimination? That's right,
:42:52. > :42:56.because you can do that without any EU treaty change. The things I was
:42:57. > :43:02.saying, that we should hire and fire our own law makers and have freedom
:43:03. > :43:06.to have a treaty with India or Australia, what is unreasonable
:43:07. > :43:13.about that? You are asking for a different settlement that is not on
:43:14. > :43:18.the table. If it was, it would be fine. But it isn't. That is what all
:43:19. > :43:22.the non-EU countries in Europe get. It is what the Swiss and Norwegians
:43:23. > :43:30.do. It is what the Macedonians and the Turks do. It is not pie in the
:43:31. > :43:34.sky, and we could have gone for a proper, economics only, semidetached
:43:35. > :43:38.relationship. The Eurocrats were clear that that was on offer. We
:43:39. > :43:43.have chosen not to go for it. I don't blame the PM for that. He has
:43:44. > :43:54.never pretended to be Eurosceptic. Then where did he go wrong? Hay
:43:55. > :43:59.takes a very different view of Britain's place in Europe from me.
:44:00. > :44:04.He's happy with elements of political union. He didn't want to
:44:05. > :44:07.opt out. Good luck to him. These are the arguments that will be played
:44:08. > :44:14.out all the way up to the referendum. What do you think is now
:44:15. > :44:17.going to happen in this campaign? I think that both camps in the
:44:18. > :44:22.referendum campaign dominated by corporate interests. I am not
:44:23. > :44:26.convinced that David Cameron will get anything out of this
:44:27. > :44:30.renegotiation. If he did, would you back it? Well, he's not asking for
:44:31. > :44:35.the things I would demand. David Cameron once the European Union to
:44:36. > :44:37.accelerate the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, which
:44:38. > :44:41.will have terrible consequences for our sovereignty in that foreign
:44:42. > :44:45.countries will be able to sue our government. That is happening now,
:44:46. > :44:50.though. The things people don't like about Egypt, the way it allows
:44:51. > :44:53.countries to bypass the system, the corporatism, the lobbying and the
:44:54. > :44:59.rules on contracting out -- the things people don't like about
:45:00. > :45:06.Ttip, those are all existing intrinsic features of the EU.
:45:07. > :45:08.Speaking of referendums, Danish voters have rejected a government
:45:09. > :45:12.proposal for deeper ties with the European Union at home -- on home
:45:13. > :45:17.Copenhagen. Gavin, what's your take on what this result means for
:45:18. > :45:34.Two things struck me about the referendum firstly how confusing it
:45:35. > :45:38.is. And secondly, how many voters decided to vote with their hearts,
:45:39. > :45:44.their gut instinct, do they want to embrace more EU or step away from
:45:45. > :45:50.it? The government leaves it is the external crises that are factored
:45:51. > :45:53.into this. It is terror on the borders, the migrant crisis that
:45:54. > :45:59.played into people's feelings of your scepticism. Going back to that
:46:00. > :46:03.question, it was deeply complex. Lots of analysts say you either say
:46:04. > :46:10.yes, and embrace a more flexible system when it comes to areas of
:46:11. > :46:19.law, home affairs and justice, or they say no and Denmark continues
:46:20. > :46:25.its opt out. Leave affairs of law... I will give you an example.
:46:26. > :46:30.This is an example of the yes and No campaign. This is the yes campaign.
:46:31. > :46:39.This is a female Danish police officer. It is talking about the
:46:40. > :46:46.lack of euro poll. People said, what does it mean? This is the striking
:46:47. > :46:51.difference. More EU? No thanks. I spoke to the Prime Minister
:46:52. > :46:55.yesterday. I asked how much of a blow he felt it was for Denmark.
:46:56. > :46:58.We refused to take a step forward, you could say, and obviously,
:46:59. > :47:00.I would like to have seen another outcome.
:47:01. > :47:02.It is still my feeling that the Danes are in favour
:47:03. > :47:05.of strong cross-border cooperation between the Danish police and police
:47:06. > :47:15.The reason why the Danes refused to choose what we have proposed is
:47:16. > :47:18.probably that there is this feeling of uncertainty, also given the fact
:47:19. > :47:21.that Europe is right now faced with other major problems which we
:47:22. > :47:34.haven't really solved, the refugee crisis etc.
:47:35. > :47:40.Let's think about the British referendum and what they have been
:47:41. > :47:43.saying about that in Denmark. Some of the Danish politicians have been
:47:44. > :47:49.drawing parallels with the upcoming British referendum. Yes,
:47:50. > :47:56.particularly Eurosceptic anti-immigration party, the Danish
:47:57. > :47:59.people's party, and its leader. He believes sovereignty is at stake for
:48:00. > :48:04.both countries. He says the Danes are like the British. The British
:48:05. > :48:08.will watch this and realise there are factors, external issues, the
:48:09. > :48:13.migrant crisis, for example, that will lead people to say, hang on,
:48:14. > :48:16.gut instinct comes into this. In Britain it is about how simple
:48:17. > :48:24.British people find the question when it comes to the referendum.
:48:25. > :48:27.Let's talk about some of that home affairs legislation. There has been
:48:28. > :48:31.a debate about whether we should be opting back into some of the
:48:32. > :48:36.legislation. It looks as if Theresa May would like that to happen? Yes,
:48:37. > :48:39.and I think they are making a mistake. That is what the Danes have
:48:40. > :48:48.voted against. When this referendum was called, the more integration
:48:49. > :48:52.side had a 58% to 22% lead. But the Danes bravely and level-headed Lee
:48:53. > :48:57.ignored the scaremongering and voted for the safer option. Do you think
:48:58. > :49:01.it is scaremongering? Yes, some of the arguments put or plainly false,
:49:02. > :49:05.as in the euro referendum in Denmark, the Maastricht referendum,
:49:06. > :49:13.and you can see that after the event. You can see how come the
:49:14. > :49:19.Prime Minister was. As you know, politicians here have warned about
:49:20. > :49:23.the dangers of coming out of Europe. They are zombie attacks! It is
:49:24. > :49:28.idiotic, some of what they are saying. I do not think our people
:49:29. > :49:32.will fall further and more than the Danes did. We were successful
:49:33. > :49:36.sovereign country for a thousand years before the EU came along. We
:49:37. > :49:40.are perfectly capable of surviving as a country trading with our
:49:41. > :49:45.friends around the world. We are the fifth-largest economy, the fourth
:49:46. > :49:49.largest military budget, we can just about make a go of it. But there is
:49:50. > :50:01.going to be a House of Commons the bolt on this. -- vote on this. They
:50:02. > :50:04.will get it through. Almost certainly they will have to rely on
:50:05. > :50:09.Labour votes to get it through. There will be more than six Tories
:50:10. > :50:17.who will vote against. The point is I don't think even now I would want
:50:18. > :50:25.us to share DNA data with other police forces. But what Eurosceptic
:50:26. > :50:30.MPs will say is we can do this on other basis. Isn't it sensible to
:50:31. > :50:36.share some of this information with EU partners? There is cooperation
:50:37. > :50:42.between police forces around the world. There is in trouble,
:50:43. > :50:47.extradition treaties -- Interpol. Should it be run by Brussels? I have
:50:48. > :50:55.a constituency case where somebody whose life was ruined by the
:50:56. > :51:00.European arrest warrant. A case of mistaken identity. How do you give
:51:01. > :51:05.that time back to a boy of that age? We opted into it without any
:51:06. > :51:08.referendum because we did not have what the Danes have just had. Thank
:51:09. > :51:10.you. When he became leader, one thing
:51:11. > :51:14.David Cameron urged his party to do was to stop banging on about Europe.
:51:15. > :51:19.I guess it hasn't quite turned out as he wished. Anyway, this Sunday,
:51:20. > :51:22.Mr Cameron will have led his party for exactly ten years - one of just
:51:23. > :51:26.four Tory leaders to have done so in the last century. Ellie Price has
:51:27. > :51:31.been looking back at Dave's decade. Real change isn't just about
:51:32. > :51:35.policies or presentation, or even, dare I say it, having a
:51:36. > :51:42.young, vigorous, energetic leader. Come to think of it,
:51:43. > :51:48.it's not such a bad idea. It was a speech that caught
:51:49. > :51:51.the imagination of his party A freshfaced David
:51:52. > :51:54.Cameron, just 38 years old, Until then, he'd been an outsider
:51:55. > :52:01.in a strong field vying to become When I first heard David was
:52:02. > :52:12.standing, my reaction was that that was ambitious, but not to be
:52:13. > :52:15.taken terribly seriously, which I I rather foolishly
:52:16. > :52:20.and grandly assumed that one day he would be a contender for the
:52:21. > :52:22.leadership, but he hadn't been around
:52:23. > :52:25.for anything like long enough. If Clarke was supposed by Cameron's
:52:26. > :52:30.impressive campaign, Michael Howard, the outgoing leader, who had
:52:31. > :52:32.employed Cameron as his special adviser
:52:33. > :52:36.a decade before, was anything but. It was obvious to me
:52:37. > :52:39.after the 2005 election that he was I had always thought that he had the
:52:40. > :52:47.potential to become Prime Minister. In fact, I told his mother so about
:52:48. > :52:52.ten years before the 2005 election. Greg Barker was an early
:52:53. > :52:55.supporter of the Cameron campaign. He entered Parliament with him
:52:56. > :53:00.in 2001 and quickly identified If we were going to take on
:53:01. > :53:05.Tony Blair, we needed our own JFK-type
:53:06. > :53:08.character. Young, televisual, but also with a
:53:09. > :53:11.powerful message of change and hope. And it was that early Cameron
:53:12. > :53:13.message of change, hope and optimism that
:53:14. > :53:17.so characterised the first period of his leadership that
:53:18. > :53:20.I found so attractive, which I think
:53:21. > :53:23.is inherently still there today. He took trips to the Arctic with
:53:24. > :53:29.a pack of huskies. He told his party to stop banging
:53:30. > :53:36.on about Europe. But after six years of austerity
:53:37. > :53:41.and with a referendum on Europe fast approaching, is his leadership
:53:42. > :53:47.defined by Cameronism or pragmatism? He wanted to sort
:53:48. > :53:55.of tilt the country back into a smaller state, bigger individual
:53:56. > :54:00.responsibility sort of vibe. It was a pretty abrupt handbrake
:54:01. > :54:03.turn into fiscal conservatism, fix the roof when the sun's
:54:04. > :54:07.shining, all that kind of rhetoric. David Cameron didn't say "Drop
:54:08. > :54:15.the green crap", But it's true that
:54:16. > :54:19.with the economic crisis, with austerity, some of those
:54:20. > :54:22.green policies So for someone like me,
:54:23. > :54:31.who was there at the beginning and who has remained a passionate
:54:32. > :54:35.advocate of green Conservatism, We already know there won't be
:54:36. > :54:45.another decade of David Cameron's But will the man who promised
:54:46. > :54:50.sunshine, but spent most of his time in Number Ten under an economic dark
:54:51. > :54:53.cloud, be happy with his legacy? The one thing you can say is that he
:54:54. > :54:57.has kept himself out of trouble He could also add, "I kept the
:54:58. > :55:02.country largely out of trouble". He doesn't have an Iraq war
:55:03. > :55:07.on his hands, yet. The party has always traditionally
:55:08. > :55:12.run itself as a dictatorship, punctuated by regular
:55:13. > :55:17.assassinations. He has announced his
:55:18. > :55:19.intention to resign and retire. If he succeeds in doing that,
:55:20. > :55:22.he will be one of the very few who escape the assassination
:55:23. > :55:25.at the hands of his followers, because with practically everybody
:55:26. > :55:36.else, that's how they went. Ken Clarke ending that report. You
:55:37. > :55:40.were in the film. If the cards fall for Cameron and he wins the
:55:41. > :55:45.referendum, if the battle against IS goes well, you warned it could be
:55:46. > :55:51.another Iraq, if the economy improves, why not tell him to stay
:55:52. > :55:57.on? Sometimes he jokingly suggest, have I done the right thing? But he
:55:58. > :56:04.will go. And he knows he has to go. Did he needs to say he had to go? I
:56:05. > :56:07.am fascinated by this question. People say he came back from the
:56:08. > :56:12.famous interview with James Landale in the kitchen and said, I have made
:56:13. > :56:17.a terrible mistake. But interestingly, while lots of other
:56:18. > :56:22.people were panicking, Lynton Crosby was quite calm about it. He had seen
:56:23. > :56:28.the polling and the polling was, it went down rather well, the idea that
:56:29. > :56:34.you let a guy in for five years and that is it. The shift from a
:56:35. > :56:39.five-year, to a five-year fixed parliament, it allows that
:56:40. > :56:42.presidential term thing to fly in a way that it would not have done
:56:43. > :56:47.otherwise. Many of his critics have said he is lucky in some regard,
:56:48. > :56:51.despite the economic crisis, and that actually he makes it up as he
:56:52. > :56:55.goes along to some extent. If that were the case, wouldn't Jeremy
:56:56. > :57:02.Corbyn be making a bigger dent in his poll ratings? I think opinion
:57:03. > :57:07.polls are often misleading. I don't think it is true that he makes it up
:57:08. > :57:12.as it goes along. From the point of view of his city paymasters he has
:57:13. > :57:15.done very well. With no real mandate in the last election, where they did
:57:16. > :57:20.not have a majority, he teamed up with a party with different policies
:57:21. > :57:27.and actually push through a fairly major restructuring of the British
:57:28. > :57:32.state. He got 24% of the vote in the last election. A narrow majority. He
:57:33. > :57:36.is pressing through a Thatcher style revolution without public backing.
:57:37. > :57:43.From a Tory perspective, he is doing well. Busy pushing through as
:57:44. > :57:49.ideological elite driven, in narrative as Margaret Thatcher did
:57:50. > :57:55.in that sense? The cuts are a very significant. The key figure is, what
:57:56. > :58:03.is the percentage of GDP that his state spending? That has been driven
:58:04. > :58:14.down from 40% on a glide path to the mid-30s. In that ball figure, there
:58:15. > :58:17.has been a big change. Undoubtedly. But the Lib Dems have pretty much
:58:18. > :58:22.been annihilated in that last election and big divisions in
:58:23. > :58:26.Labour? There are big divisions in labour. We need to see an actual
:58:27. > :58:30.opposition. We have seen the opposition is holding the Commons to
:58:31. > :58:36.account more than in the last Parliament. We have seen U-turns
:58:37. > :58:41.like the tax credits. Cameron has changed the country for the worse.
:58:42. > :58:44.It is time we had a real alternative to this strategy which was never
:58:45. > :58:48.really given the endorsement of the British people. Thank you.
:58:49. > :58:51.That's all for today. Thanks to our guests. The One O'Clock News is
:58:52. > :58:55.starting over on BBC One now. I'll be back on Sunday with the Sunday
:58:56. > :59:07.This is the FA Cup and anything can happen.