:00:38. > :00:39.Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics,
:00:40. > :00:48.The BBC has learnt that David Cameron is to allow his
:00:49. > :00:50.ministers to campaign for - or against - Britain remaining
:00:51. > :00:56.The Prime Minister's expected to make the announcement later today.
:00:57. > :01:00.But Ministers will only be able to break ranks once the UK has
:01:01. > :01:03.completed renegotiating its relationship with the EU.
:01:04. > :01:11.Jeremy Corbyn is in the midst of reshuffling his cabinet.
:01:12. > :01:17.The shadow cultural secretary has already been shown the door.
:01:18. > :01:18.There's been speculation he would sack several prominent
:01:19. > :01:21.politicians who don't share all his views on policy.
:01:22. > :01:23.Should Donald Trump be barred from entering the UK?
:01:24. > :01:27.Our Ellie's been testing the mood on the streets.
:01:28. > :01:29.Nothing wrong with a bit of inflammatory now and again just
:01:30. > :01:46.And with 2016 set to be another bumper political year,
:01:47. > :01:50.I am here to tell you who will be first past the post in the London
:01:51. > :01:53.mayoral election, whether or not we will see a photo
:01:54. > :01:55.finish agreement for the EU referendum, and who the hot odds-on
:01:56. > :02:00.favourite is to be the next president of the United States.
:02:01. > :02:03.All that in the next hour and with us for the duration former
:02:04. > :02:04.Conservative International Development Secretary,
:02:05. > :02:09.The Shadow Women and Equalities Minister,
:02:10. > :02:11.Cat Smith, and SNP MP, Tommy Sheppard.
:02:12. > :02:17.Now, first today to Europe because the BBC understands
:02:18. > :02:21.David Cameron will allow members of his Cabinet to campaign on either
:02:22. > :02:29.He's expected to make the announcement later this
:02:30. > :02:31.afternoon, he's certainly due in the Commons at 3.30
:02:32. > :02:33.to bring MPs up to speed on his EU renegotiation efforts.
:02:34. > :02:38.David Cameron hopes to reach a final deal on renegotiation at the next EU
:02:39. > :02:48.This could pave the way for a referendum as early as June.
:02:49. > :02:51.But September is also a possibility as is a vote early in 2017.
:02:52. > :02:56.There are a number of tricky issues still to be addressed.
:02:57. > :02:58.Crucially, David Cameron has to reach an agreement with the rest
:02:59. > :03:01.of the 28 states that make up the European Union.
:03:02. > :03:04.This is easier said than done - EU President Donald Tusk says member
:03:05. > :03:10.states are "far from agreement on several topics".
:03:11. > :03:17.Some of the Prime Minister's demands such as banning EU migrants
:03:18. > :03:19.from receiving in-work tax credits for four years
:03:20. > :03:22.are proving particularly controversial.
:03:23. > :03:24.But, assuming Cameron reaches a deal, the BBC expects Cabinet
:03:25. > :03:27.ministers to be allowed to campaign to leave the EU
:03:28. > :03:32.The Justice Secretary Michael Gove and Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond
:03:33. > :03:36.have both said they would be prepared to vote no.
:03:37. > :03:39.Home Secretary Theresa May has also left the door open to backing
:03:40. > :03:51.Will he have to resign if Britain votes to leave the EU after leading
:03:52. > :03:55.The Labour party say they will make the case for continued
:03:56. > :03:56.membership of the EU, whatever the outcome
:03:57. > :04:04.But they won't whip MPs to support their party line -
:04:05. > :04:06.so there's potential for Shadow Cabinet splits too.
:04:07. > :04:08.Let's speak now to BBC Five Live's Chief Political Correspondent,
:04:09. > :04:22.John, why has this happens now? David Cameron is following through
:04:23. > :04:26.on promises that he has given in private to senior sceptics for some
:04:27. > :04:31.while, I don't think he realistically had a choice but to
:04:32. > :04:37.take this step. It would have been a big shock and story if he decided
:04:38. > :04:41.not to do it. If he tried to keep all of his ministers in line,
:04:42. > :04:45.batting in favour of continued membership, whatever happens in
:04:46. > :04:50.these negotiations, there was a real risk of resignations. We would be
:04:51. > :04:57.looking at the likes of Iain Duncan Smith and Chris Grayling. It could
:04:58. > :05:02.all unravel very, very quickly. David Cameron and his party will
:05:03. > :05:07.have a big enough problem keeping his party united through the
:05:08. > :05:13.process. This is dealing with a wound before it opens up. A sign of
:05:14. > :05:18.weakness? Assignable realism. He recognises, as we all can see, that
:05:19. > :05:28.there are deep in divisions in the Tory party. This was an accident
:05:29. > :05:33.waiting to happen. There were senior ministers who were looking to
:05:34. > :05:38.getting out of Europe. David Cameron has forced it all. Whatever happens
:05:39. > :05:44.after this, David Cameron has a job to do. If the boat is to get out of
:05:45. > :05:50.the EU, the question of David Cameron's survival becomes an issue.
:05:51. > :05:55.Do you think some members of the Cabinet who may indeed campaign to
:05:56. > :06:00.come out of the EU, do you see any of them leading that campaign? That
:06:01. > :06:08.remains to be seen. We await to see who urges in the front and centre.
:06:09. > :06:12.What we will see are the likes of potentially Iain Duncan Smith, Chris
:06:13. > :06:17.Grayling, out there from the moment the deal is signed. That can happen
:06:18. > :06:21.as early as a couple of weeks' time. There may be a deal in February that
:06:22. > :06:24.is agreed by David Cameron. At this point, every bet is off and they can
:06:25. > :06:28.go their own way. And we're joined now by the UKIP
:06:29. > :06:37.MP, Douglas Carswell. Welcome back. Andrew, was that the
:06:38. > :06:42.right decision? Yes, it was, and it was the obvious decision to take. It
:06:43. > :06:47.means we all support the Prime Minister on his renegotiation,
:06:48. > :06:51.collective responsibility continues. Once the deal is on the table for
:06:52. > :06:55.the British public to decide, every member of Parliament can follow
:06:56. > :07:00.their conscience and the collective responsibility ends. I got all this
:07:01. > :07:03.grey hair from being a government whip drawing the Maastricht crisis
:07:04. > :07:09.and I have seen what you can do, where you try to end the position
:07:10. > :07:13.and it breaks. -- during. This is the right decision if this is what
:07:14. > :07:19.he announces this afternoon, and it is not just in the party interest in
:07:20. > :07:24.Britain's interest. It shows David Cameron could not hold his cabinet
:07:25. > :07:30.together on a line here supporting. He is accepting that there are very
:07:31. > :07:33.different views within his Cabinet. Quite rightly, he is allowing
:07:34. > :07:38.members of his Cabinet to express those views. Not now while
:07:39. > :07:43.negotiations are going on... Why has he announced it now? Because you
:07:44. > :07:47.have been announcing these questions. -- asking these
:07:48. > :07:53.questions. Is it pressure from the media? It is the realistic decision
:07:54. > :07:58.to take and it reflect this and recognises the depth of this issue,
:07:59. > :08:01.and this is a referendum on his renegotiation where everybody can
:08:02. > :08:06.vote as their conscience dictate. Douglas, are you pleased? Is it a
:08:07. > :08:10.boost for your campaign? I am pleased that we could be six months
:08:11. > :08:14.away from a referendum and we have a chance to win it. There is real
:08:15. > :08:17.momentum. There was a realignment in the Conservative Party with senior
:08:18. > :08:24.figures preparing to come out and campaign to leave. People in Labour
:08:25. > :08:28.are preparing to leave. Business leaders, opinion is shifting in
:08:29. > :08:34.favour of leaving. It is incredibly exciting. There was a broad-based
:08:35. > :08:41.opinion. It is very exciting. Douglas Carswell has mentioned the
:08:42. > :08:49.Labour Party as well. If you have big figures like Theresa May all
:08:50. > :08:54.backing an EU exit, it is a big blow for the campaign to stay in the EU.
:08:55. > :08:59.The Conservative Party will always be split on Europe and Cameron was
:09:00. > :09:10.between a rock and a hard place and had to give the MPs his free vote.
:09:11. > :09:14.That will give its momentum. I don't expect any big beasts from Labour
:09:15. > :09:20.will campaign alongside Douglas in this referendum. When I was a
:09:21. > :09:24.Conservative backbench MP I got to know Jeremy Corbyn who was a
:09:25. > :09:28.backbencher. I kept on bumping into him in the voting lobby when we
:09:29. > :09:33.voted against the consensus of David Cameron Ancona. Will Jeremy Corbyn
:09:34. > :09:37.vote to come out? There is an ambivalent relationship between the
:09:38. > :09:43.corporatist cartel in Brussels. How can it be that the left in this
:09:44. > :09:48.country is putting the interests of bankers ahead of working people in
:09:49. > :09:52.Europe? Nobody has said that the EU is a perfect institution which we
:09:53. > :09:56.support. We are saying that it is better for British workers to be in
:09:57. > :10:00.the EU then out of it because it is through the EU that many of the
:10:01. > :10:09.rights we have one for maternity pay and leave, workers' writes, all of
:10:10. > :10:12.these right... Is it ambivalent? What you are getting here is a
:10:13. > :10:18.preview of the debate on the renegotiation which will take place
:10:19. > :10:24.in the months before the referendum but everybody in our country who is
:10:25. > :10:33.over the aged abode can listen to the argument -- over the age of
:10:34. > :10:38.consent can vote. You are also in favour of the EU staying in the EU.
:10:39. > :10:46.There is an assumption that Scotland is overwhelmingly pro-EU. What is
:10:47. > :10:51.your evidence that? That is what the polls suggest. The polls are mixed.
:10:52. > :10:56.The polls suggest 72% of people want to stay within the EU. We want
:10:57. > :11:00.reforms and a better EU but we can do that from the position of being
:11:01. > :11:05.in rather than out. You ask whether this was the right decision that
:11:06. > :11:09.David Cameron was going to take stock it is the right decision for
:11:10. > :11:12.the Tories but not for the country. The premise that is putting his
:11:13. > :11:16.party before the country and it is time he showed some leadership in
:11:17. > :11:19.this. He seems to have given up the prospect of getting a deal in these
:11:20. > :11:25.discussions with his European partners. That is a ridiculous
:11:26. > :11:31.position for the Prime Minister to be in before he has even concluded
:11:32. > :11:37.his discussions. What do you say? There isn't enough for those who are
:11:38. > :11:42.already Euro-sceptic to actually support? I don't agree with Tommy.
:11:43. > :11:48.The fact is that the Prime Minister is an extremely good negotiator. His
:11:49. > :11:53.political opponents would say that. What are you expecting him to get?
:11:54. > :11:57.You have to wait until he concludes his negotiations. I worked closely
:11:58. > :12:00.with him for seven and a half years and he is the most Euro-sceptic
:12:01. > :12:06.Prime Minister that I have known in my 30 odd years in politics. He will
:12:07. > :12:11.get a good deal. The EU is flat on its back. There has never been a
:12:12. > :12:19.lesser appetising time for the EU. Look at the EU, Greece, the stagnant
:12:20. > :12:22.economy, the euro, he will have to do a deal to get Britain into a
:12:23. > :12:28.better place and I believe he will do. He wouldn't campaign to come
:12:29. > :12:32.out, would he? I expect him to be successful on the negotiation. It is
:12:33. > :12:37.not a secret negotiation, everyone is revealing how it is going and I
:12:38. > :12:46.expect him to be successful. You said he's the most Euro-sceptic
:12:47. > :12:55.Prime Minister, would there be a situation where he campaigns to come
:12:56. > :12:57.out? Let us wait and see the results of the negotiations, I am not
:12:58. > :13:03.dealing with hypothetical situations. I expect him to
:13:04. > :13:07.negotiate a successful deal. He is an opportunity to renegotiate our
:13:08. > :13:11.relationship with Europe but the negotiations are reduced to try and
:13:12. > :13:18.say that Polish owners cannot claim benefits, it is pathetic. -- Polish
:13:19. > :13:24.plumbers. It has been watered down and watered-down and what we have
:13:25. > :13:30.seen is a dilutive version of a agenda which has never been
:13:31. > :13:35.seriously considered. -- undiluted. There is not much time left. He
:13:36. > :13:41.should be united behind his former colleagues. Let's talk about Douglas
:13:42. > :13:44.Carswell and being unified. What is going on with you and Nigel Farage?
:13:45. > :13:50.We had a season of goodwill but there has been a spat between the
:13:51. > :13:54.two of you, is it resolved? I have made my views clear and I will not
:13:55. > :14:02.articulate them again. I was Frank. You want a fresh face? I was asked
:14:03. > :14:08.on the strategic direction of Ukip and I have articulated that but this
:14:09. > :14:13.is about the EU. Does it help if you have two lead campaigns to start
:14:14. > :14:18.with? We interviewed Nigel Farage and he said that you will have to
:14:19. > :14:26.put up or shut up. I am involved in the league campaign, and Nigel is
:14:27. > :14:31.involved in the other campaign. -- leave. It is sensible for Ukip to be
:14:32. > :14:34.backing both forces in a two horse race. Only one campaign will get
:14:35. > :14:40.additional designation. Imagine a scenario where the SNP had managed
:14:41. > :14:43.to isolate itself on the official independence campaign, of course we
:14:44. > :14:46.want to be involved in both campaigns but the electoral
:14:47. > :14:50.commission will designate one of them and we want to make sure we are
:14:51. > :14:54.working closely with the officially designated campaign. Have you spoken
:14:55. > :15:02.to Nigel Farage over Christmas? Not on the phone. What has happened? He
:15:03. > :15:06.said that we cannot have one individual to give an impression
:15:07. > :15:11.that Ukip is divided when actually it is very united. On the issue of
:15:12. > :15:16.the EU referendum, we are united. We do have a common position in wanting
:15:17. > :15:25.to leave the EU and we are campaigning with the two campaigns.
:15:26. > :15:28.It is bizarre that you and Nigel Farage are in two different
:15:29. > :15:34.campaigns. Are you staying within Ukip? Have you had discussions about
:15:35. > :15:43.withdrawing? I am 100% Ukip and committed to them. And to Nigel
:15:44. > :15:50.Farage? Nigel is doing a great job. We are 17% in the opinion polls but
:15:51. > :15:55.I want is to be on 37%. In order to do this... In two years' time, I
:15:56. > :16:00.don't want us to be on 70% but on 27%. There are some useful
:16:01. > :16:05.suggestions I can make. Are you not going to say anything more? No. Do
:16:06. > :16:11.you regret it? I very rarely regret anything. This could be one of them.
:16:12. > :16:13.The important thing is that we will have this referendum and I think we
:16:14. > :16:19.will win. Have you got anywhere with the
:16:20. > :16:23.campaign requiring all four nations must vote to withdraw from the EU if
:16:24. > :16:26.that's to pass? Well, we put the argument. Hasn't got anywhere, has
:16:27. > :16:33.it? The Government refuses to listen to the argument. The idea of there
:16:34. > :16:36.being a... It's rejecting it. Rejecting it out of hand because
:16:37. > :16:39.there are many examples where a double majority is required for a
:16:40. > :16:42.decision to be taken. The United States of America being in its
:16:43. > :16:46.constitutional amendments being the most obvious one. I think the
:16:47. > :16:50.problem in not allowing it is that there is a potential major
:16:51. > :16:56.constitutional headache on the way if... Why? If Scotland votes in
:16:57. > :17:00.large part to stay in the European Union, and England votes with an
:17:01. > :17:03.equally large majority to leave, then I think there is going to be a
:17:04. > :17:06.lot of anger in Scotland about being dragged out of the EU against the
:17:07. > :17:09.will of the people that live in Scotland. Would that propell you
:17:10. > :17:13.into campaigning for another referendum? Independence referendum
:17:14. > :17:16.It would beg a question to which independence would be one answer but
:17:17. > :17:19.it would need a lot of soul-searching if that takes place
:17:20. > :17:23.and it will throw up a constitutional crisis. The poll of
:17:24. > :17:28.polls put the remain in the EU campaign ten points ahead, as we
:17:29. > :17:32.know from the most recent general election, polls polls, relying on
:17:33. > :17:35.them, is a risky business. What will you be doing, what will Labour be
:17:36. > :17:39.doing to encourage people to vote to remain? Labour's been very clear
:17:40. > :17:45.from the outset here that we want to remain part of a reformed EU You are
:17:46. > :17:49.going to remain come what may, that's clear? We will do that by
:17:50. > :17:52.arguing that being in the EU is better for British workers and
:17:53. > :17:55.British families and that we are all better off being active members of
:17:56. > :17:59.the EU and playing a part in it. What's your evidence for that? What
:18:00. > :18:02.are the figures that you have for saying that families are better off
:18:03. > :18:07.within the EU, the British workers? Look at the investment the EU makes
:18:08. > :18:11.in the UK, engs in the example, for instance, in Scotland, where the EU
:18:12. > :18:14.supports a lot of businesses there. Outside of London and the south-east
:18:15. > :18:26.where politics and the media tend to be quite focussed, the EU is
:18:27. > :18:30.investing in our regions. We are net contributors, aren't we? There is an
:18:31. > :18:35.EU fund that we could be applying to... Your local MP could lobby
:18:36. > :18:39.their own Government. I am doing. David Cameron is refusing to engage
:18:40. > :18:43.with the EU so that we are not getting all out that we already can.
:18:44. > :18:49.You say there is momentum but the poll of polls just for arguments
:18:50. > :18:51.sake does put the Recampaign campaign ten points ahead, we
:18:52. > :18:56.haven't heard from the renegotiation deal. There is a European-wide
:18:57. > :18:59.migration crisis. Terrorism across the continent. You might think leave
:19:00. > :19:03.would be doing better and they're not. I was looking at some polls
:19:04. > :19:11.recently that put the two camps neck-and-neck. We need to be
:19:12. > :19:15.sceptical, you are right. Momentum is with Leave. We saw senior
:19:16. > :19:18.business figures today, opinion shifting. Many of the undecideds who
:19:19. > :19:22.are going to decide the outcome are making thaup their mind and that we
:19:23. > :19:26.would be better off out. You are confident David Cameron should get a
:19:27. > :19:31.good deal, should he resign if he loses this referendum? Again it's
:19:32. > :19:35.entirely hypothetical question. It's not, it's potentially happening in a
:19:36. > :19:39.few months? I expect him to successfully renegotiate Britain's
:19:40. > :19:43.position. Should he resign... If he does so successfully I expect him to
:19:44. > :19:46.win. And what Cat said is right, people will decide on the basis of
:19:47. > :19:52.their living standards, what's best for their family. But this is going
:19:53. > :19:56.to be a tight debate. I think that the two campaigns are neck-and-neck.
:19:57. > :19:59.We are going to see the result of negotiations and then everyone makes
:20:00. > :20:02.up their mind. Thank you for telling us that.
:20:03. > :20:05.Parliament's expenses watchdog is considering a further crackdown
:20:06. > :20:09.But what is IPSA considering as a replacement for rental
:20:10. > :20:16.Is it a) student-style halls of residence b) house boats
:20:17. > :20:19.on the Thames c) Battersea power station or d) the Hilton on Park
:20:20. > :20:23.Although other hotels are available.
:20:24. > :20:30.of the show our MPs will give us the correct answer!
:20:31. > :20:36.We are saying goodbye to you at this stage. Lovely to be here.
:20:37. > :20:39.It's the reshuffle that seems to have gone on for rather a long
:20:40. > :20:42.But this lunchtime we'll finally be getting details
:20:43. > :20:46.of who is in and who is out of Jeremy Corbyn's new look Shadow
:20:47. > :20:49.Let's talk now to a man who knows what's going on,
:20:50. > :20:51.the BBC's Assistant Editor, Norman Smith.
:20:52. > :20:55.You are laughing, I am not filled with confidence! This has been the
:20:56. > :21:00.longest reshuffle in history with not that much going on. Is Jeremy
:21:01. > :21:05.Corbyn talking to every member of the Labour Party before he moves
:21:06. > :21:10.anyone? I was laughing because you suggested we might have some details
:21:11. > :21:13.by lunchtime. I doubt it because we now discover that the Shadow Cabinet
:21:14. > :21:18.meeting scheduled for quarter to one has been cancelled. Why? Because
:21:19. > :21:22.Jeremy Corbyn does not have a new Shadow Cabinet so that meeting will
:21:23. > :21:26.take place we do not know when, sometime later this afternoon. This
:21:27. > :21:31.is a reshuffle which has now been going on for more than 24 hours, so
:21:32. > :21:37.far only one person has been ousted, that's the Shadow Culture Secretary
:21:38. > :21:41.Michael Dugher. In a way not surprising because he has been a
:21:42. > :21:45.public critic of Jeremy Corbyn. What is surprising is the response to his
:21:46. > :21:51.sacking because a whole series of senior Shadow Cabinet ministers have
:21:52. > :21:55.issued statements backing Michael Dugher saying what a terrific member
:21:56. > :21:58.of the Cabinet he is, how he manages to reach out to northern
:21:59. > :22:01.working-class voters, what a loss he will be to the Shadow Cabinet and
:22:02. > :22:07.that from figures like Andy Burnham, Tom Watson, some of the big beasts
:22:08. > :22:10.in the Shadow Cabinet. My sense is where we are now, Jeremy Corbyn
:22:11. > :22:14.finds himself hemmed in. He can't do what he wants to do, which is move
:22:15. > :22:19.Hilary Benn and move Maria Eagle because he knows if he does that he
:22:20. > :22:25.faces a Shadow Cabinet revolt and resignations. Where we are heading,
:22:26. > :22:29.eventually, I think, is towards not a revenge reshuffle, but potentially
:22:30. > :22:32.a damp squib reshuffle. In the end Jeremy Corbyn realised he didn't
:22:33. > :22:39.have the power or strength to do what he wanted to do, in your mind?
:22:40. > :22:43.Yeah, I think he will present it as underlining how he is willing to
:22:44. > :22:47.listen to different voices, he is not going to carry out some ruthless
:22:48. > :22:51.sort of purge. The reality, I think, is this, there are people around him
:22:52. > :22:55.who want him to seize this moment in the wake of the Oldham by-election,
:22:56. > :22:59.in the wake even of the Syria vote when something like 70% of the party
:23:00. > :23:03.backed him, they want him to seize this moment and they think he lacks
:23:04. > :23:08.the steel, the ruthlessness to get rid of some of his dissidents and
:23:09. > :23:11.critics in the Shadow Cabinet. He, however - he likes to discuss
:23:12. > :23:17.things. He likes to talk things through. He likes to reach consensus
:23:18. > :23:21.and I think by inclination he does not want to be in the position of
:23:22. > :23:25.having to shove people out the door, never mind the threat of
:23:26. > :23:28.resignations which there almost certainly would be and a clear
:23:29. > :23:32.warning from the Chief Whip that if he did that the Shadow Cabinet would
:23:33. > :23:37.implode because there would be a London of -- a load of Ministers who
:23:38. > :23:39.would say right, we are out of here. We will leave you there for what may
:23:40. > :23:43.turn out to be a long afternoon! And with us now former
:23:44. > :23:50.Shadow Chancellor, Chris Leslie. Welcome back. Would you describe
:23:51. > :23:55.this as a revenge reshuffle or a purge? Michael Dugher said it would
:23:56. > :23:59.be wrong to have a revenge reshuffle and look what's happened to him, I
:24:00. > :24:03.am not sure why he has been reshuffled, what exactly his sin
:24:04. > :24:06.was. I think he was very effective in opposing the Government and
:24:07. > :24:10.opposing the Conservatives. I don't think removing him makes Labour's
:24:11. > :24:15.chances of winning any greater. I am afraid that there is a sort of
:24:16. > :24:20.natural impetus amongst the hard-left who want to tighten their
:24:21. > :24:24.control, they want to sideline moderate voices when they have the
:24:25. > :24:28.chance to do so. It looks as though it might be more incremental. We
:24:29. > :24:30.don't know the time-scale of this particular reshuffle. I don't think
:24:31. > :24:34.anybody should be surprised about that is the nature of the hard-left.
:24:35. > :24:38.You built this up. You and some of your, as you describe them moderate
:24:39. > :24:40.colleagues, have obviously been briefing about this revenge
:24:41. > :24:45.reshuffle, this purge that you feared. It's not happening. We don't
:24:46. > :24:49.know because the reshuffle is going on and on. Obscuring a lot of very
:24:50. > :24:54.good campaigning that people were doing on rail fares, the housing
:24:55. > :24:58.bill in the House of Commons. The Government has tried to hide beneath
:24:59. > :25:02.this news of the reshuffle, a major change on European referendum
:25:03. > :25:06.policy. What we should be doing, of course, is appealing to the wider
:25:07. > :25:10.public and listening to what the public's views are. This is all
:25:11. > :25:14.before we even get to some of the economic and fiscal issues where
:25:15. > :25:17.according to a poll yesterday only 18% of the public, apparently, have
:25:18. > :25:22.confidence in the current front bench view when it comes to the
:25:23. > :25:25.economy. What was wrong with Michael Dugher I think Jeremy Corbyn as
:25:26. > :25:28.leader of the Labour Party is within his rights to pick the people that
:25:29. > :25:33.he wants to serve in his Shadow Cabinet. If he doesn't want people
:25:34. > :25:35.in the Shadow Cabinet who spend more time attacking the Labour Party
:25:36. > :25:41.leadership than the Tory benches opposite us, he is perfectly within
:25:42. > :25:48.his rights to do that. I think Jeremy is -- Jeremy is in a wrong
:25:49. > :25:52.position, we ended 2015 on a strong note, we pshed back on credits and
:25:53. > :25:57.police cuts and he is trying to realign the top team to match more
:25:58. > :26:01.what the PLP is and the party. I think the current Shadow Cabinet,
:26:02. > :26:07.frankly, is to the right of where the PLP is. If you look for instance
:26:08. > :26:12.on the vote on Syria, more Labour MPs voted with Jeremy Corbyn than
:26:13. > :26:19.with Hilary Benn. You would expect him to move Hilary Benn You just
:26:20. > :26:23.said you wanted him to realign. If he was realigning he would move
:26:24. > :26:27.Hilary Benn because he holds a contradictory position on air
:26:28. > :26:31.strikes. He would be moving Maria Eagle from Shadow defence because
:26:32. > :26:35.she doesn't agree with the view on Trident, so he has bottled it The
:26:36. > :26:38.reshuffle hasn't finished yet. Would you be disappointed if that doesn't
:26:39. > :26:43.happen I won't be disappointed with anything that comes out of this
:26:44. > :26:47.reshuffle. It's a minor change, it's not a full reshuffle. It's not
:26:48. > :26:54.all-out. I regret the fact you have said what you said about Michael
:26:55. > :26:59.Dugher and saying he was attacking more time on the - he is an
:27:00. > :27:01.effective communicators when it comes to an effective fighting force
:27:02. > :27:05.against appalling right-wing changes. I hope he continues to do
:27:06. > :27:09.that from the back benches. I don't think it was right to have
:27:10. > :27:14.characterised Michael in that way. His sin, I think, was to dare to
:27:15. > :27:20.have different views and we know that the hard-left famously cannot
:27:21. > :27:26.tolerate any dissident. Who are the hart-left, Chris Is it Cat? A lot of
:27:27. > :27:31.people are in the ascendency within the Labour Party who associate with
:27:32. > :27:35.the hard-left. I am a Labour MP, I am proud to be Labour and I am
:27:36. > :27:40.assuming you feel the same. I got elected as a Labour MP. You said we
:27:41. > :27:43.were too right-wing. Not to fight internally. It's right that Jeremy
:27:44. > :27:51.Corbyn has a team around him he trusts. Absolutely. He can't be an
:27:52. > :27:58.effective leader... He didn't trust Michael Dugher? He is either having
:27:59. > :28:01.a realignment or not. To put to you, Michael Dugher did describe momentum
:28:02. > :28:04.as stupid and that's the grass roots organisation, not just of Labour
:28:05. > :28:08.Party members but others. Is that the sort of language that will help
:28:09. > :28:12.this integration to stop this in-fighting within Labour? We all
:28:13. > :28:17.care about Labour winning in the future and if we end up with a
:28:18. > :28:19.hard-left agenda, whether it's printing money, whether it's
:28:20. > :28:22.nationalisation without compensation, whatever it happens to
:28:23. > :28:29.be, the public will take a view on that and I don't know what you think
:28:30. > :28:34.about the opinion poll that put Labour at 18% of trust. They'll have
:28:35. > :28:38.to take a pinch of salt after the last general election. A lot of
:28:39. > :28:42.people are in marginal seats, yourself included, we have to start
:28:43. > :28:45.not just listening to those who feel strongly about a hard-left wing
:28:46. > :28:50.position but want to listen to the wider public. If we see people like
:28:51. > :28:53.Maria Eagle, for example, being sidelined because she cares about a
:28:54. > :28:56.strong defence for our country, I think that would be massively
:28:57. > :29:01.regrettable. I hope it doesn't happen. We will see how this pans
:29:02. > :29:04.out. This is what the Labour Party has become, this in-fighting with
:29:05. > :29:08.two different factions when there are issues that people are worried
:29:09. > :29:12.about, whether it's the economy, whether it's flooding, whether it is
:29:13. > :29:17.air strikes in Syria and this is all we have had from the Labour Party.
:29:18. > :29:21.As a party, we will have debate within, there is no Labour MP I
:29:22. > :29:25.agree with 100%. There is the same for Chris, as well. We are a
:29:26. > :29:29.coalition of people who come together around the values that the
:29:30. > :29:36.country... You are not coming together, are you? Internally we
:29:37. > :29:40.will S have these discussions. Do you think Jeremy Corbyn is going to
:29:41. > :29:45.lead Labour to victory in 2020? It's so far away. I worry that the way we
:29:46. > :29:49.are going is moving away from electability, I hope that we can
:29:50. > :29:53.wake up and realise the public looking at this, they want to hear
:29:54. > :29:57.about campaigning on flooding, what's happening on housing bill,
:29:58. > :30:03.the European referendum, but all they see is a sort of narrowing
:30:04. > :30:06.view, the sort of disdainful hard-left focussing inWardley,
:30:07. > :30:09.rather than engaging with the wider public on things they care about.
:30:10. > :30:13.That's my anxiety. What do you say to that I would say that this week
:30:14. > :30:16.we have been campaigning on the railways. Nobody's heard it. We have
:30:17. > :30:20.and I have been doing it and you have been doing it. Where have the
:30:21. > :30:24.public not heard of it We moved our policy position to something that's
:30:25. > :30:29.closer to where the public are than what we had previously. If you ask
:30:30. > :30:31.the public they would like to see railways back in public ownership,
:30:32. > :30:39.is that hard-left? What do you say when you view this
:30:40. > :30:46.going on? You have experience with the Labour Party. In one sense, this
:30:47. > :30:54.debate is less relevant because the Labour Party has been replaced by
:30:55. > :31:00.the centre-left party, the SNP. I do think the people of England need a
:31:01. > :31:03.centre-left alternative. Who represents that? It is sad that is
:31:04. > :31:06.not there at the moment. Two things need to happen. All of us have
:31:07. > :31:13.witnessed in the House of Commons the most amazing infighting going on
:31:14. > :31:17.within the Labour benches and as an observer it seems to be a tax on the
:31:18. > :31:27.current leadership of Jeremy Corbyn, rather than attacks from Jeremy
:31:28. > :31:30.Corbyn. The people on Chris's wing of the party needs to recognise and
:31:31. > :31:34.respect that Jeremy Corbyn has a mandate to be leader but Jeremy
:31:35. > :31:40.Corbyn also need to show some leadership. There has been a lot of
:31:41. > :31:44.pussyfooting around, indecision, not whipping decisions, not seeking
:31:45. > :31:49.backing on certain things, that needs to stop and he needs to start
:31:50. > :31:57.acting like a leader and get respect from all wings of the party to be
:31:58. > :32:01.able to do it. Do you think you will get it? I do not have the patience
:32:02. > :32:05.of some of those who have stuck it out in the Shadow Cabinet. It is not
:32:06. > :32:10.right to sit by and see good colleagues being sacked. Michael was
:32:11. > :32:14.the only one we know about so far. They are good colleagues who care
:32:15. > :32:18.about Labour winning and campaigning, and have been
:32:19. > :32:24.disparaged as somehow wanting to attack Labour its self, rather than
:32:25. > :32:30.fighting to win a general election. What are you going to do about it? I
:32:31. > :32:33.think it is important that those of us who do believe in a moderate
:32:34. > :32:39.centre-left Labour Party fight strongly for that and I am vocal for
:32:40. > :32:44.that. At this stage, the hard left needs to be prepared for that. How
:32:45. > :32:50.we going to fight for that? Let's see how the reshuffle goes stop are
:32:51. > :32:54.you going to challenge Jeremy Corbyn and the hard left? Wants to focus on
:32:55. > :33:01.getting the Labour Party into tip top shape and appealing to the
:33:02. > :33:07.general public. Andrew Mitchell? May I make two points? Firstly, any
:33:08. > :33:12.party that is seriously considering replacing somebody of the character
:33:13. > :33:16.and quality of Hilary Benn is not in a good place, particularly given
:33:17. > :33:21.some of the names suggested stop he does not agree with the leader. In
:33:22. > :33:25.the end, Jeremy Corbyn has to take position of his party or he will be
:33:26. > :33:35.buffeted around on the waves and that is why I have some sympathy
:33:36. > :33:38.with Cat. Thank you for the advice. Thank you.
:33:39. > :33:41.Now, 2016 could be a humdinger of a political year.
:33:42. > :33:43.Are the bookies hoping for a bumper crop of bets?
:33:44. > :33:46.Earlier, I spoke to Alex Donnahue from Ladbrokes.
:33:47. > :33:50.I began by asking him if the odds on the EU referendum were still very
:33:51. > :33:52.close between the leave and remain camps?
:33:53. > :33:59.If the referendum does take place this year,
:34:00. > :34:02.we say it is the even money favourite that the UK votes to stay,
:34:03. > :34:07.If the referendum does happen this year, those are the odds,
:34:08. > :34:10.and we say it is a 50-50 chance that we will stay put
:34:11. > :34:16.The bets to leave are the ones that are definitely shortening.
:34:17. > :34:18.Those odds are around 3/1 this time last year.
:34:19. > :34:20.Those odds are coming in all the time.
:34:21. > :34:23.My prediction would be that as soon as we get an announcement
:34:24. > :34:26.of the year or date those odds will get shorter still.
:34:27. > :34:28.Let's have a look at the mayoral election also this year.
:34:29. > :34:33.Labour have got Sadiq Khan, there are other candidates of course
:34:34. > :34:34.but how does it look between those two?
:34:35. > :34:37.That is another one where we make pretty much a coin toss
:34:38. > :34:39.although Sadiq Khan is the odds-on favourite at 8/11.
:34:40. > :34:43.Zac Goldsmith just behind at 11/10 , so we are saying that Sadiq Khan
:34:44. > :34:45.is the narrow but odds-on favourite to become the Mayor
:34:46. > :34:49.What about the future of the Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn?
:34:50. > :34:52.There had been plenty of speculation that he might be replaced before
:34:53. > :34:53.2020, how was it looking from your side?
:34:54. > :34:56.I should say that he is odds-on to actually survive until 2020.
:34:57. > :35:00.Those who think there will be a reshuffle this year
:35:01. > :35:05.A controversial figure in the USA, what are the odds on him or anybody
:35:06. > :35:09.He is the second favourite to become the next president at 4/1.
:35:10. > :35:12.Those odds were really long not so long ago, 100/1, 200/1.
:35:13. > :35:16.I should add that he is even shorter at 2/1 to visit the UK this year.
:35:17. > :35:19.I'm not sure too many people would be pleased to see that
:35:20. > :35:21.but as far as the other candidates are concerned,
:35:22. > :35:23.Hillary Clinton, odds-on favourite 4/6, and for the Republicans,
:35:24. > :35:26.Marco Rubio, 11/2, Ted Cruz, 8/1 and Bernie Sanders at 16/1
:35:27. > :35:28.if he does get the Democratic nomination.
:35:29. > :35:31.Let's come closer to home and talk about the local elections coming
:35:32. > :35:35.What are the chances of Ukip winning seats in Wales?
:35:36. > :35:38.We think they have a decent chance of picking up a handful of seats
:35:39. > :35:42.in Wales, maybe eight or maybe nine, but to get ten, that is 3/1.
:35:43. > :35:44.And the Scottish Nationalist Party, they did extremely
:35:45. > :35:49.What about this year's Holyrood elections?
:35:50. > :35:53.They did indeed and a clean sweep is 7/2.
:35:54. > :35:56.Let's talk to the Guardian's Polly Toynbee and Sam Coates
:35:57. > :36:09.Happy New Year to both of you. Looking good. Sam, who is going to
:36:10. > :36:15.fare best in the May elections? I think London will be the biggest
:36:16. > :36:19.thing, the Westminster bubble. At the moment, it feels like Siddique
:36:20. > :36:25.Khan is narrowly ahead. We had interviews with both Zac Goldsmith
:36:26. > :36:29.and Siddique Khan and Zac Goldsmith put in a curiously poor performance
:36:30. > :36:32.on the radio this morning, sanding unsure of himself on delicate
:36:33. > :36:40.allegations against Sadiq Khan. He has been around a while and it feels
:36:41. > :36:44.like he is likely in front. The Zac Goldsmith campaign backed by his
:36:45. > :36:47.company, they are going to throw everything at this. It is close but
:36:48. > :36:52.it feels like Labour are in with a chance. However, that might not be
:36:53. > :36:55.altogether good news for the wider Labour Party if it means Jeremy
:36:56. > :37:02.Corbyn can claim a win and thereby solidify his position as Labour
:37:03. > :37:05.leader because many will look at the elections and whether or not Labour
:37:06. > :37:14.is dragged down by its current leader or whether in fact that's he
:37:15. > :37:20.is an electoral liability. Holly, how do you see it in terms of the
:37:21. > :37:27.key elections? Is it true that if Khan winds for Labour then that will
:37:28. > :37:31.just lend power to Jeremy Corbyn? It looks like Khan will win. Labour is
:37:32. > :37:35.extraordinarily strong in London, getting stronger all the time.
:37:36. > :37:41.London is almost the Labour heartland. Khan, the son of a bus
:37:42. > :37:49.driver coming he is Mr London. His experience as a politician will
:37:50. > :37:55.show. Zac Goldsmith is a newcomer, a beginner, not terribly good at it.
:37:56. > :37:59.Will it affect the views of Jeremy Corbyn? I don't think Khan will be
:38:00. > :38:03.dragged down by Jeremy Corbyn's lack of popularity and I don't dig it
:38:04. > :38:08.will show that Jeremy Corbyn is a great success. Labour can win all
:38:09. > :38:17.kinds of elections, locally around country. Unaffected for good or bad
:38:18. > :38:23.by Jeremy Corbyn. The Conservative leadership contest. Now we know that
:38:24. > :38:27.David Cameron is not going to stand again, and depending on what happens
:38:28. > :38:32.with the EU referendum which could be as early as June, it would be
:38:33. > :38:38.surprising if there was not already some pretty clear jostling for
:38:39. > :38:41.position other than what we know. Yes, the preplanning for this has
:38:42. > :38:47.begun in earnest and there are conversations about it. The Times
:38:48. > :38:54.had a big hole about this last week and we found it is pretty much neck
:38:55. > :39:00.and neck among Tory voters. -- poll. What was interesting was what was
:39:01. > :39:04.going on with the wider public which showed Boris Johnson comfortably out
:39:05. > :39:10.in front, Theresa May in second and George Osborne in third. The numbers
:39:11. > :39:16.suggest that while Boris Johnson is the Heineken politician, George
:39:17. > :39:20.Osborne is whatever the opposite of that is not a dry white wine
:39:21. > :39:26.politician! Doesn't translate very well among Labour voters or Ukip
:39:27. > :39:30.voters or Lib Dem voters, so really his popularity is in that narrow
:39:31. > :39:34.Tory Brecon and that might be enough to get across the line but it might
:39:35. > :39:39.also worry conservatives that he does not have that appeal despite
:39:40. > :39:43.months and months of presenting himself as a man of the working
:39:44. > :39:47.people, the man of the Northern Powerhouse, that is not shifted the
:39:48. > :39:53.public attitudes towards him. He has a bit of time but people have
:39:54. > :39:59.already made up their minds. What is the opposite of a Heineken
:40:00. > :40:04.politician? Give us analogy on that. George Osborne's chancers will hinge
:40:05. > :40:08.on the economy performance. We have two remember that the most important
:40:09. > :40:13.being to happen in Britain for a long time is the EU referendum. --
:40:14. > :40:16.chances. It decides the fate of this nation for ever and it could be
:40:17. > :40:23.catastrophic if we pull out stop if George Osborne put his shoulder to
:40:24. > :40:26.the wheel and failed or only just scraped past in getting Britain to
:40:27. > :40:34.remain then I think he will look quite weak. If on the other hand
:40:35. > :40:41.Caroline Osborne got 65% and put it to bed for ever to end the ludicrous
:40:42. > :40:47.rift in the Tory party, sending the other side away with their tail
:40:48. > :40:50.between their legs, then I think he is in a strong position. A lot of it
:40:51. > :40:55.depends on winning this most important battle, far more important
:40:56. > :41:02.than any internal warfare is in either party. Finally, there is talk
:41:03. > :41:06.about Scotland. The SNP could do even better this time round than
:41:07. > :41:12.last time. It does feel like they are in a commanding position and the
:41:13. > :41:14.big danger for Scotland is the Labour Party. People are talking
:41:15. > :41:18.down here about the need for Labour to make progress in the May
:41:19. > :41:21.elections and showing that the beginning to claw back some of the
:41:22. > :41:25.territory from the in Scotland but there is no sign that is working.
:41:26. > :41:30.Nicola Sturgeon appears like a Teflon politician and if you see
:41:31. > :41:36.Labour facing another catastrophic defeat in May then the chances are
:41:37. > :41:42.that the moderate politicians will also fall by the wayside, and then I
:41:43. > :41:45.think one of Jeremy Corbyn's analyses will come in and take her
:41:46. > :41:54.place, meaning that the Scottish Labour Party is pretty much a Jeremy
:41:55. > :41:58.Corbyn entity. We saw some polls that they would narrowly votes for
:41:59. > :42:06.Jeremy Corbyn if there was an election immediately and the SNP is
:42:07. > :42:14.now behind the leader if Labour does catastrophically in May. What
:42:15. > :42:17.evidence is there of any recovery by Labour in Scotland? We make no bones
:42:18. > :42:21.about it, it will be a challenging collection for Labour in Scotland
:42:22. > :42:24.and we have a long way to come back from the general election defeat
:42:25. > :42:30.where we were almost wiped out by the SNP. Nothing has changed? We
:42:31. > :42:33.have to give it time and we earn the trust of voters in Scotland, and
:42:34. > :42:39.that will not happen overnight stop I will be out in Scotland,
:42:40. > :42:44.campaigning, knocking on doors, with my party and it will be a slog. We
:42:45. > :42:49.can come back but it will take time. Is cosier the right leader? She is a
:42:50. > :43:00.fantastic leader of the SNP. I am happy to do forcer -- I am happy to
:43:01. > :43:03.support. -- Kezia. Should there be a bar? It is going to be challenging
:43:04. > :43:12.and as I am not Scottish myself I will not set any bars. In a way,
:43:13. > :43:18.will and SNP victory be equal to or better to last time round then give
:43:19. > :43:22.you a mandate? We probably won't be seeking a referendum on independence
:43:23. > :43:27.in the election, that is not part of the manifesto. Would it
:43:28. > :43:29.kick-start... One thing we will see in our
:43:30. > :43:34.kick-start... One thing we will see powers and authority coming north of
:43:35. > :43:37.the border and the Scottish Government having more control to
:43:38. > :43:42.shape the lives of people in Scotland. In that sense, there is
:43:43. > :43:46.unfinished business from the last referendum, and it will be for the
:43:47. > :43:52.government to decide how it responds to the wishes of the people in the
:43:53. > :43:56.SNP does get the majority. We do intend to fight for every single
:43:57. > :44:02.vote, we take nothing for granted in this election. What has the SNP
:44:03. > :44:06.achieved so far at Westminster? We provided a strong voice for
:44:07. > :44:16.Scotland's... What has been achieved, policy? The SNP won the
:44:17. > :44:19.election in 56 out of 65 seat in May but we did not foresee the type of
:44:20. > :44:25.government that we have seen in England. In those circumstances, it
:44:26. > :44:29.is difficult to actually achieve things but there are certainly many
:44:30. > :44:32.aspects in which our resistance with others has been part of the process
:44:33. > :44:37.of making the government run away from debates, whether that be the
:44:38. > :44:41.Human Rights Act, the timing of the EU referendum or the tax credit
:44:42. > :44:48.issue. The independence referendum, Nicola Sturgeon kick-started the SNP
:44:49. > :44:50.election bid and said the SNP has a special responsibility to lead a
:44:51. > :44:54.renewed debate about independence, do you agree? Would be a platform
:44:55. > :45:04.for another Scotland is now much more relaxed
:45:05. > :45:06.after the referendum as a country. It's heading on a journey which I
:45:07. > :45:10.think will lead to independented pence. One of the interesting...
:45:11. > :45:13.When? One of the interesting opinion poll questions is if you ask people
:45:14. > :45:18.do they think they'll see independence in their lifetime and a
:45:19. > :45:22.clear majority, 60%-plus, of people say yes to that question. It's now
:45:23. > :45:28.seen as a natural state of affairs, rather than a far off distapt dream.
:45:29. > :45:31.Is it a natural state of affairs, people might say now seize the
:45:32. > :45:35.opportunity, the SNP may never as popular as now in Scotland, why
:45:36. > :45:38.wouldn't you go for it? It's not even been 18 months since we had a
:45:39. > :45:41.thorough referendum and thorough examination of this question and we
:45:42. > :45:46.respected the decision that was taken. Although we would point out
:45:47. > :45:48.that one of the reasons why a lot of people voted against independence is
:45:49. > :45:52.because they were made promise that is have not been kept. It's part of
:45:53. > :45:56.our job to try and make sure those promises are kept and to advance the
:45:57. > :46:00.cause of independence And perhaps use powers you already have at your
:46:01. > :46:05.disposal? Yes and to get more powers we can do more. There hasn't been a
:46:06. > :46:10.demonstration of what you have done with the powers so far. If you ask
:46:11. > :46:15.people who don't have to pay tuition fees, or people who are sick don't
:46:16. > :46:20.have to pay for medicine... Delays on the Forth Bridge, are thee things
:46:21. > :46:24.you have achieved? Which one will I talk about? Let's start with
:46:25. > :46:28.admissions. The health service in Scotland, we obviously need to do
:46:29. > :46:32.more and there is room for improvement we are achieving the 95%
:46:33. > :46:40.target on waiting times... That wasn't the target you set. 95% was
:46:41. > :46:45.the target. I thought it was 98%. The target was 95% and that's being
:46:46. > :46:49.achieved. What about delays to the Forth Road Bridge, closed for weeks
:46:50. > :46:53.and the budget cut. The reason it was closed was not to do with that.
:46:54. > :46:57.Labour tried to make a point on that and had to retract quickly on it.
:46:58. > :47:00.The bridge is an old structure, 50 years old this year. It's coming to
:47:01. > :47:03.the end of its life. These are things you have power to do
:47:04. > :47:08.something about. The Scottish Government took a safety first
:47:09. > :47:12.attitude, we closed the bridge. Put be public safety first and we were
:47:13. > :47:17.able to get it open ahead of schedule. It was delayed and
:47:18. > :47:23.suddenly it was announced it would be early. The ferry crossing is
:47:24. > :47:27.under budget and ahead of schedule in construction. Has flood defence
:47:28. > :47:30.been reduced? Not as much as England and Wales It's been reduced and
:47:31. > :47:33.communities in Scotland have had the most dreadful time over Christmas
:47:34. > :47:38.and new year, was that a wise decision? There are warnings that
:47:39. > :47:42.rivers are still rising in Aberdeenshire tonight. We need to
:47:43. > :47:47.look and see if there is enough being put in to flood defence. There
:47:48. > :47:51.is a cut of 6% in the budget. However, George Osborne is planning
:47:52. > :47:56.a cut of 30%. These are things that you have the powers to do something
:47:57. > :48:01.about. We don't set the overall Scottish budget, that's set by
:48:02. > :48:06.George Osborne. Tldz but there are things you can do. I am trying to go
:48:07. > :48:09.through some issues. Free education, free medicine. In terms of the next
:48:10. > :48:14.Conservative leader, the starting gun has been fired, there are going
:48:15. > :48:17.to be members of the Cabinet to campaign on the referendum. Who
:48:18. > :48:20.would you put your money on? There are two outstanding candidates, one
:48:21. > :48:26.is George Osborne and the other is Boris Johnson. Who is your favourite
:48:27. > :48:28.Both have tremendous qualities. The Labour Party can only dream of
:48:29. > :48:37.having two candidates of that sort of calibre. Only one can be the next
:48:38. > :48:39.leader. The point that your intelligent and clever journalists
:48:40. > :48:43.were making about the leadership election was not taking sufficient
:48:44. > :48:47.account of the fact that the parliamentary party decide on the
:48:48. > :48:50.last two and of course within parliament George Osborne is very,
:48:51. > :48:54.very dominant. He is almost certain to get on to the ballot paper. The
:48:55. > :48:58.question is who else will get on to the ballot paper with him and the
:48:59. > :49:02.public, members of the Conservative Party will choose between those two.
:49:03. > :49:06.That's a factor which I don't think Sam sufficiently put into his
:49:07. > :49:10.calculations. Who would you like to be the next leader It's too early to
:49:11. > :49:12.say. Both are strong, appealing candidates, not just within the
:49:13. > :49:16.Conservative Party but widely across the country. Do you think it was a
:49:17. > :49:19.mistake by David Cameron to announce he wasn't going to stand next time.
:49:20. > :49:23.That's what everything will be about, post the referendum, whatever
:49:24. > :49:28.the result No, it was an extremely clever to do. It avoids the terrible
:49:29. > :49:31.problems that Tony Blair had within his parliamentary party. Making it
:49:32. > :49:36.clear means he owes no one anything. He can reshuffle as he sees fit and
:49:37. > :49:40.everyone knows when he is going. No one is agitating to get rid of him.
:49:41. > :49:42.That may change after the EU referendum depending on what
:49:43. > :49:47.happens. In terms... I don't think it will actually. He said when he is
:49:48. > :49:51.going to go, by the end of this parliament. The Tory Party owes
:49:52. > :49:56.David Cameron a huge debt. Can he really stay on and serve a full
:49:57. > :49:59.term? Surely whatever happens with the EU referendum once that result
:50:00. > :50:03.is clear there will be a case for him to step down before. That's a
:50:04. > :50:09.matter for him and no one in the Conservative Party really believes
:50:10. > :50:12.it's a matter for anyone else. How worried about the economy, slowing
:50:13. > :50:16.down in terms of growth and impact here That's the central issue in
:50:17. > :50:20.this parliament, it's whether we can sustain the British economy doing
:50:21. > :50:24.better than other European economies, creating an extraordinary
:50:25. > :50:26.number of new jobs, really boosting and lifting living standards,
:50:27. > :50:30.getting young people into work. Those are the real issues which
:50:31. > :50:34.people want to see us deliver on and that's our challenge. Thank you.
:50:35. > :50:36.More than half a million Brits have signed a petition demanding
:50:37. > :50:41.Donald Trump be banned from entering the UK.
:50:42. > :50:45.Later today the Parliamentary Peitions Committee meets
:50:46. > :50:50.and will decide whether or not parliament should debate just that.
:50:51. > :50:56.Welcome to the first moodbox of 2016.
:50:57. > :50:59.Now a few weeks ago a certain US presidential hopeful said he thought
:51:00. > :51:02.all Muslims should be barred from entering the USA.
:51:03. > :51:04.A subsequent petition here said he should be barred
:51:05. > :51:08.So what better place to ask people than here?
:51:09. > :51:12.Should Donald Trump be allowed in or kept out of Britain?
:51:13. > :51:18.What he said is wrong, we don't have to listen to it,
:51:19. > :51:22.but if we start blocking him then we'll be doing what he is doing
:51:23. > :51:24.saying Muslims aren't allowed in the United States.
:51:25. > :51:30.No, I don't know some of the statements he's making quite
:51:31. > :51:32.fit the inclusive culture we would like to showcase
:51:33. > :51:36.Celebrity personality on politics is something we should probably
:51:37. > :51:41.Should we let him into the UK or not?
:51:42. > :51:52.Well, unlike Donald Trump this street is pretty quiet so I think
:51:53. > :51:57.we need to take the moodbox somewhere a bit busier.
:51:58. > :51:59.# Nellie the elephant packed her trunk and said goodbye
:52:00. > :52:03.# Off she went with a trumpety trump.
:52:04. > :52:10.There is a few little crazies already in the UK, aren't there?
:52:11. > :52:12.Yeah, but we don't want another one here really.
:52:13. > :52:19.Nothing wrong with a bit of inflammatory now and again
:52:20. > :52:22.# Off she went with a trumpety trump.
:52:23. > :52:30.Screw Donald Trump, he is an abomination to America.
:52:31. > :52:38.I think he speaks what a lot of people won't speak.
:52:39. > :52:41.And, yes, I do actually feel he should be allowed in the country.
:52:42. > :52:53.We let a lot of other people in and we never track them.
:52:54. > :52:58.He is a bit of a toe-rag, to be honest.
:52:59. > :53:00.A toe-rag, no one else has called him a toe-rag.
:53:01. > :53:08.He is such an idiot, let's have a go at him.
:53:09. > :53:10.The last time I checked around 550,000 people had signed
:53:11. > :53:13.the petition saying that Donald Trump should not be
:53:14. > :53:17.But then another 40,000 people signed a petition against that
:53:18. > :53:19.petition saying he should be allowed in.
:53:20. > :53:22.We didn't have anywhere near that many people for the moodbox
:53:23. > :53:25.but there was an overwhelming majority that said Donald Trump
:53:26. > :53:41.And we're joined now by the writer and broadcaster,
:53:42. > :53:43.and Republican supporter, Charlie Wolf.
:53:44. > :53:47.With that many on the petition shouldn't parliament discuss it? I
:53:48. > :53:51.think it's already been discussed. We made statements. Listening to the
:53:52. > :53:56.programme today and all the issues you were discussing, the floods,
:53:57. > :54:00.Isil, Labour Party reshuffle, if it's happening or not happening, do
:54:01. > :54:04.we really want to spend a morning discussing Donald Trump? It only
:54:05. > :54:08.actually is what he would love. He thrives on publicity. A matter of
:54:09. > :54:11.fact, if he has any problem, I don't know if it's number one or not, if
:54:12. > :54:15.he is not number one he will think you are all stupid. As Donald Trump
:54:16. > :54:21.would say. It's been done. What are you going to say that hasn't been
:54:22. > :54:25.said? Let's ask them. Are you in favour of a debate on this? ? I am
:54:26. > :54:28.more than happy to debate it in parliament, I hope the committee
:54:29. > :54:32.allow us that opportunity. What would you say? We should have the
:54:33. > :54:36.debate with him. He should come or shouldn't be barred We should show
:54:37. > :54:40.him exactly how London is and it's not a place he believes it to be and
:54:41. > :54:44.that communities live alongside each other and rub along fine. Should he
:54:45. > :54:50.be allowed? ? I would probably say no. I don't think he should be
:54:51. > :54:53.welcome here. Why not? Given statements about saying against
:54:54. > :54:56.Muslims, for example, I think it's offensive to a large number of
:54:57. > :55:01.British people. I don't think he should be allowed here. He could be
:55:02. > :55:06.the next US President. When this guy is possibly elected and he is banned
:55:07. > :55:09.from the country, you know, our closest ally? We will cross that
:55:10. > :55:13.bridge when we come to it. Let's hope for the sanity of the world
:55:14. > :55:18.that he is not elected. I hope the American people come to their senses
:55:19. > :55:24.on that one and see through Trump. He is a nasty man peddling awful
:55:25. > :55:28.ideas which are set to divide people and don't get to the heart of real
:55:29. > :55:33.problems we face. Should that not be a question for debating with him
:55:34. > :55:38.rather than barring him there are lots of other nasty people that we
:55:39. > :55:41.do let into the UK? I am in favour of talking to people with whom we
:55:42. > :55:46.don't agree. I think it's extremely important. On this issue I wouldn't
:55:47. > :55:52.ban him. I think he should be brought here for education. I rather
:55:53. > :55:56.agree with what Cat said. Let him come here and see for himself that
:55:57. > :56:00.what he was saying in the United States is complete rubbish. Can you
:56:01. > :56:04.really class Donald Trump with religious extremists and war crim
:56:05. > :56:08.naps? He is not the worst but I think he is certainly an extremist
:56:09. > :56:12.-- criminals. His views are extremely offensive to many people
:56:13. > :56:18.who are living here and they do nothing to try and achieve the type
:56:19. > :56:23.of dialogue we need to achieve, particularly with Islam Nordtveit to
:56:24. > :56:28.achieve world ksh - in order to achieve world peace. You were happy
:56:29. > :56:31.to have the money invested in Scotland by Donald Trump? He invests
:56:32. > :56:35.for his own benefit rather than anyone else. Scotland has
:56:36. > :56:38.benefitted. A golf course and he has bought a hotel. They would be there
:56:39. > :56:44.anywhere. Perhaps you shouldn't have taken the money if you wanted to ban
:56:45. > :56:47.him. No one got the money, Jo. It's still investment in Scotland. It's
:56:48. > :56:51.still investment. What's fascinating is there are people that share that
:56:52. > :56:57.view. Both in this country and in the United States. You could be like
:56:58. > :57:00.Jebb Bush and say Donald Trump is unhinged and it's a provocative
:57:01. > :57:06.statement, where does it get you? I want to know where that statement
:57:07. > :57:10.has traction. Maybe it's been inartfully presented and yes, I
:57:11. > :57:13.agree, I think it's racist or insulting, but there are people with
:57:14. > :57:17.fears. We need to discuss that issue, not just from his point of
:57:18. > :57:21.view, but again from the angle of the constituencies. What are charnss
:57:22. > :57:31.of him winning the nomination - chances Originally it was sort of
:57:32. > :57:35.like the chances of a celluloid cat chasing a mouse through hell. It's
:57:36. > :57:41.conceivable, very small, but, you know what, no one knows. I talk to
:57:42. > :57:44.friends in DC and we are all totally confused by this. The rules have
:57:45. > :57:47.been rewritten. Let's see what happens. Yeah. We will get you back
:57:48. > :57:50.on snoochlt it will be interesting. Thank you very much. -- We will get
:57:51. > :57:54.you back on. It will be interesting. There's just time before we go
:57:55. > :57:57.to find out the answer to our quiz. The question was: what is
:57:58. > :57:59.the Parliamentary expenses watchdog considering as a replacement for
:58:00. > :58:02.MPs' rental properties in London? A) student-style halls of residence
:58:03. > :58:05.b) house boats on the Thames c) Battersea power station or d)
:58:06. > :58:17.the Hilton on Park Lane Does anyone Anyone know the answer? I am afraid
:58:18. > :58:21.not. Trump hotel? All of them sound more expensive than the current
:58:22. > :58:27.arrangement. It's actually the student halls. Would you like to be
:58:28. > :58:31.in student-style accommodation? The South Bank apartments are pretty
:58:32. > :58:39.much that anyway. You know, do you? My London home is no expense to the
:58:40. > :58:42.taxpayer. That's a no then. I don't pay for my accommodation either so I
:58:43. > :58:44.am not sure. The One o'clock News is starting
:58:45. > :58:49.over on BBC One now. Andrew and I will be back
:58:50. > :58:51.here at 11.30am tomorrow for the first PMQs of 2016
:58:52. > :58:55.and all the big political stories