:00:37. > :00:38.Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics.
:00:39. > :00:41.George Osborne warned that the UK faced a dangerous cocktail
:00:42. > :00:47.Well this morning China has reported its slowest rate of growth
:00:48. > :00:53.So what does a bumpy ride for the global economy mean for us
:00:54. > :01:05.The election result was a big surprise thanks to the opinion polls
:01:06. > :01:13.Sexual assaults in Cologne have tested the German government's
:01:14. > :01:15.response to the migrant crisis, what does it mean
:01:16. > :01:28.And as a survey seems to show that believing in no religion has become
:01:29. > :01:36.normal, we'll be talking about the rise of a church for atheists.
:01:37. > :01:39.All that in the next hour and with us for the whole
:01:40. > :01:41.of the programme today is Giles Fraser.
:01:42. > :01:45.He's a priest in south London, the former canon of St Paul's
:01:46. > :01:48.Cathedral, and has been described as the Church of England's "most
:01:49. > :02:03.Let's talk about the news that has broken in the last few minutes that
:02:04. > :02:07.the British Medical Association has announced it is to suspend the
:02:08. > :02:19.48-hour strike action planned for next week, over the proposed new
:02:20. > :02:24.contract the Junior doctors. Talks are continuing book on crack
:02:25. > :02:29.progress will have to be made if action for February is to be
:02:30. > :02:32.averted. We can talk to our correspondence Opie Richardson. Why
:02:33. > :02:39.have they called off the strike? They are still in talks, as I
:02:40. > :02:43.understand it. The NHS employers which represent the government and
:02:44. > :02:45.the British Medical Association which represent the doctors have
:02:46. > :02:53.been in talks since the first strike. We went into talks last week
:02:54. > :02:58.on Thursday. They were in talks on Friday, yesterday and today and then
:02:59. > :03:04.this news has come of the suspension of the strike planned for the 26th
:03:05. > :03:08.and 27th of January next week. This two day strike were only emergency
:03:09. > :03:12.care was going to be covered. We understand from the BMA they are
:03:13. > :03:19.hopeful some progress will be made. They have said they need significant
:03:20. > :03:23.progress on issues around safety and the other is issues around
:03:24. > :03:26.unsociable hours. But they said they wouldn't have suspended the strike
:03:27. > :03:31.unless they were hopeful that significant progress could be made.
:03:32. > :03:36.Yes, clearly, something must have been offered by the government in
:03:37. > :03:44.order for them to postpone it? The main sticking points, we don't know
:03:45. > :03:51.the ins and outs of the talks being held at Acas. But the main issues
:03:52. > :03:57.the doctors were troubled about, was the safety. They were concerned that
:03:58. > :04:02.fines for hospitals when they made junior doctors work over the safe
:04:03. > :04:08.hours, the maximum hours they are meant to work, were going to be
:04:09. > :04:14.removed. The BMA said that was unsafe and they wanted those to be
:04:15. > :04:19.kept in place. The other issue was around the unsocial hours, where
:04:20. > :04:25.doctors get extra for working unsocial hours, late at night and on
:04:26. > :04:29.Saturdays. So something in that area, obviously the BMA is hopeful
:04:30. > :04:35.they have found some kind of meeting point with the government taps? But
:04:36. > :04:38.that progress hasn't been made yet, they are still in negotiations and
:04:39. > :04:43.they are saying and less significant progress is made, the other strike
:04:44. > :04:48.planned for the 10th of February, which is an all-out strike, it is an
:04:49. > :04:52.historic strike where emergency care will not be covered wide junior
:04:53. > :04:59.doctors, that strike would go ahead. So that is the threat still looming.
:05:00. > :05:05.Thank you very much. Relief this has been postponed or called for the
:05:06. > :05:08.moment? Everybody will be relieved. Nobody wants to go into hospital on
:05:09. > :05:15.January the 26th and the Beano doctors. If they are working towards
:05:16. > :05:27.some settlement, very good indeed. I do feel sorry for the junior
:05:28. > :05:31.doctors. They need to push back to the government are doing. They are
:05:32. > :05:35.on the ground, they see what the problems are. I don't like the idea
:05:36. > :05:40.the government has them over a barrel and can do what it wants. Is
:05:41. > :05:46.this a big moment? Historically, junior doctors haven't gone on
:05:47. > :05:52.strike because of safety issues and care of patients. Yet it has still
:05:53. > :05:56.come to this, junior doctors out protesting, operations cancelled and
:05:57. > :06:00.the prospect of emergency cover not being in place. It is a big
:06:01. > :06:06.collision? I trust the junior doctors, they are on the ground and
:06:07. > :06:11.they know what is going on. They have a sense of issues of safety and
:06:12. > :06:20.what is workable. I trust the government less on this. I would
:06:21. > :06:24.hope the doctors are not being abused and safety will not be
:06:25. > :06:29.compromised because they are over a barrel and there is a moral pressure
:06:30. > :06:33.not to take industrial action. We will bring you any more news on that
:06:34. > :06:39.when we find out the reason, if there are any, the BMA have called
:06:40. > :06:43.OFT this strike. Because the one in February is still in place.
:06:44. > :06:47.Yesterday, MPs used valuable Parliamentary time to debate
:06:48. > :06:50.whether or not Donald Trump should be banned from entering the UK.
:06:51. > :06:54.to describe Mr Trump during the debate?
:06:55. > :07:10.Giles will give us the correct answer.
:07:11. > :07:13.First today, let's talk about the economy.
:07:14. > :07:15.The Chancellor George Osborne started the year by warning that
:07:16. > :07:17.slow Chinese growth, low commodity prices and tensions
:07:18. > :07:20.in the Middle East would be a "dangerous cocktail" for the UK
:07:21. > :07:28.And today we've had a series of economic indicators
:07:29. > :07:34.Figures released overnight show that Chinese growth fell to 6.9% last
:07:35. > :07:38.year - it doesn't sound too bad but it's the worst rate they've had
:07:39. > :07:50.The price of oil fell to as low as 27 dollars a barrel this morning
:07:51. > :07:52.because of oversupply and the slowdown in China and Europe
:07:53. > :07:55.- that's good news for motorists but is also a barometer
:07:56. > :07:57.for the overall health of the global economy.
:07:58. > :07:59.Speaking of which, the International Monetary Fund has
:08:00. > :08:01.downgraded its forecasts for global economic growth for this
:08:02. > :08:11.The IMF now predicts growth of 3.4 per cent this year and 3.6 per cent
:08:12. > :08:22.Monthly inflation figures released this morning showed inflation
:08:23. > :08:24.slightly up - 0.1 to 0.2%, as measured
:08:25. > :08:32.And that could mean the prospects of an interest rate rise
:08:33. > :08:34.from the historic low of 0.5% has receded even further -
:08:35. > :08:39.a subject being addressed by Mark Carney in a speech that's
:08:40. > :08:41.Well let's talk now to our business correspondent Simon Gompertz he's
:08:42. > :08:58.Not really a surprise, it could be kicked into 26 being -- 2017, and
:08:59. > :09:02.interest rise? Since the summer, Mark Carney said around about now,
:09:03. > :09:07.the decision on raising rates would come into sharper relief. What has
:09:08. > :09:14.come into sharp relief is he will not push rates up for the time
:09:15. > :09:20.being. So the question now is, when will they do it? I think the markets
:09:21. > :09:25.are expecting it will happen early next year, as you say. Others are
:09:26. > :09:31.still looking at the summer as a possibility. What we see here is a
:09:32. > :09:37.result of what he calls the global environment being on the giving
:09:38. > :09:40.economically and that has had a big effect on the UK. Whereas the United
:09:41. > :09:46.States has started pushing up interest rates and the economy there
:09:47. > :09:50.is more insulated against world events. We don't have that luxury if
:09:51. > :09:56.things aren't going well elsewhere, we feel the impact. Interest rates
:09:57. > :10:02.tend to go up when the economy starts recovering strongly, we're
:10:03. > :10:05.not there yet. We have spoken about this unforgiving global environment,
:10:06. > :10:10.tell us more about the impact of slowing Chinese growth and what it
:10:11. > :10:16.might do to our economy? The Chinese economy is growing at a rate of
:10:17. > :10:21.6.9%, which seems very high, but it is less than they hoped for. It is
:10:22. > :10:27.something that has been anticipated. The figure isn't surprising, it is
:10:28. > :10:31.just broadening this picture of the softening Chinese economy. I would
:10:32. > :10:36.like to pick out from that, steel production is down. The amount of
:10:37. > :10:41.electricity they generated power the Chinese economy is slightly down. So
:10:42. > :10:45.you can see the effect. There is a knock on the rest of the world. You
:10:46. > :10:51.mentioned the IMF, who also brought out the forecast. They have said the
:10:52. > :10:57.world economy could be derailed as a result of the slower growth in China
:10:58. > :11:02.and also worries about big emerging economies like is ill, who are
:11:03. > :11:06.having a difficult time and the knock-on effect on us.
:11:07. > :11:08.Well we're joined now by the Cabinet Office minister,
:11:09. > :11:17.One of the thing the government has spoken about is dumping of cheap
:11:18. > :11:24.steel which has effect did the industry here. Jobs have been lost.
:11:25. > :11:30.That is a major crisis, what action has the government taken to tackle
:11:31. > :11:32.it? It is a big challenge and it demonstrates the reality of these
:11:33. > :11:37.international risks. What we have done is make sure... We have changed
:11:38. > :11:45.the rules so when public projects are buying steel, they not only take
:11:46. > :11:49.into account its price, but also the impact on the local economy. It is a
:11:50. > :11:53.rule change we brought in a couple of months ago. It means we can look
:11:54. > :11:59.more broadly at the impact of where public projects by steel from. Why
:12:00. > :12:05.haven't you cut dismiss rates for the steel industry? We have brought
:12:06. > :12:10.in a package to help those with high energy bills. The industry has been
:12:11. > :12:16.calling for that for months, saying if you do that it will help combat
:12:17. > :12:25.this cheap steel coming in gesture marked you can cut business rates
:12:26. > :12:30.like any other tax cut... You haven't been prepared to do that to
:12:31. > :12:33.help the steel industry? It is unfair because you have picked just
:12:34. > :12:39.one specific measure. The industry has been calling for the government
:12:40. > :12:42.to do it? We have made the changes the industry have called for and we
:12:43. > :12:47.are in dialogue all the time with what else we can do to help. I met
:12:48. > :12:51.representatives from the industry yesterday, to talk about what more
:12:52. > :12:56.we can do to help. There is a broader picture that this impact on
:12:57. > :13:04.our steel industry demonstrates, there are risks. The IMF report
:13:05. > :13:13.shows world growth is slowing and downgraded but they have kept the
:13:14. > :13:18.projections for UK growth unchanged. Our job in government is to have a
:13:19. > :13:22.plan, which we have got, to protect economic security and the financial
:13:23. > :13:26.security of families. These risks show how important it is to have
:13:27. > :13:34.that plan. We will talk about how insulated the country is in a
:13:35. > :13:38.moment. You could buy a stake in the steel industry, presumably the last
:13:39. > :13:43.Labour government was right to save the banking sector, in your mind?
:13:44. > :13:47.Yes it was, not least because of the impact on the rest of the economy.
:13:48. > :13:52.Hence the change we have made, which is when the government buys things,
:13:53. > :13:57.for instance, Crossrail, the biggest construction project in Europe, it
:13:58. > :14:03.has bought almost entirely British steel. We have changed the rules so
:14:04. > :14:07.when we are buying things with the tax payers' money, we take into
:14:08. > :14:11.account the economic impact. Some will say you don't regard the steel
:14:12. > :14:18.industry in the same way as the banking industry, but there are
:14:19. > :14:23.communities that have been decimated by the steel crisis. Surely that is
:14:24. > :14:28.of vital national concern? Why can't you doing the same, or taking
:14:29. > :14:32.similar measures to save that industry if you still believe in a
:14:33. > :14:40.diversify the economy with an important manufacturing industry. We
:14:41. > :14:43.do... But you're not taking the same steps to save this industry in the
:14:44. > :14:49.way Labour did with the banking sector? You have got to make sure
:14:50. > :14:54.you get value for money for the taxpayers' money. You have got to do
:14:55. > :15:00.things you can, that reasonable. We have made changes. Would you have to
:15:01. > :15:05.make sure the nation's finances are in order. I have been on this
:15:06. > :15:09.programme enough times talking about the fact that at the same time we
:15:10. > :15:14.still running a deficit. We have brought it down, but we need to get
:15:15. > :15:19.down further. And we need to tackle individual problems.
:15:20. > :15:24.You could say that you are the ones who have been in government, as a
:15:25. > :15:27.coalition and now as a majority government, dealing with this
:15:28. > :15:30.deficit that still has not come down in the vay George Osborne promised
:15:31. > :15:34.it would. So let's look at the impact of the global economy, why
:15:35. > :15:38.did George Osborne changes June so much between the Autumn Statement in
:15:39. > :15:42.November and his speech in Cardiff in January -- change his tune? I
:15:43. > :15:47.don't think he did. If you look at what he said in the Autumn Statement
:15:48. > :15:52.and listen to it, he talked about the international risks and at the
:15:53. > :15:55.time, he said the OBR's projections for world growth were being brought
:15:56. > :16:02.down and today, the IMF has reflected that Indy -- in the
:16:03. > :16:06.international... He said he would make Britain the most prosperous and
:16:07. > :16:08.secure of all the major nations in the world, and economic
:16:09. > :16:12.national-security were at the heart of his plans. Now he says we are
:16:13. > :16:17.facing a dangerous cocktail of threats. Was he wrong in November?
:16:18. > :16:23.No, because in November he also said international growth was slowing.
:16:24. > :16:26.That the pace of growth in China particularly was slowing. That there
:16:27. > :16:32.were risks from around the world and that we had to insulate ourselves to
:16:33. > :16:37.protect British national and economic security and, crucially, to
:16:38. > :16:41.protect the financial security of families, families watching this at
:16:42. > :16:46.home. So he talked about that. He also talked about, of course, our
:16:47. > :16:52.long-term goal, a long-term plan to make Britain a prosperous place. But
:16:53. > :16:56.there was a different tone, when you listen to both of those. There was a
:16:57. > :17:00.totally different tone. I am trying to say, which is more accurate? Is
:17:01. > :17:05.he now being more realistic about those exact threads that you have
:17:06. > :17:10.just outlined and are we not as well insulated that he perhaps thought --
:17:11. > :17:14.exact threats? No, the whole point of our economic plan is to make sure
:17:15. > :17:18.we are protected from these risks around the world, that our economic
:17:19. > :17:23.security and financial security of families is protected. What could
:17:24. > :17:29.George Osborne do? If you think about what happened in the Autumn
:17:30. > :17:33.Statement, what we did was pay down the deficit faster than we did
:17:34. > :17:39.before. You didn't find the money down the back of the sober to do
:17:40. > :17:44.that, did you? Part of it was used. Why wasn't all a bit used? It is
:17:45. > :17:50.important to invest in long-term infrastructure, that is part of the
:17:51. > :17:54.plan as well, so we smoothed the plan as well, it is all part of a
:17:55. > :17:58.long-term economic plan, I know you have heard that phrase before, all
:17:59. > :18:03.about protecting economic security and I think the fact today that the
:18:04. > :18:05.IMF had downgraded world growth but kept our growth unchanged
:18:06. > :18:09.demonstrates we are having some impact in doing that, but we have
:18:10. > :18:15.got to be aware of the risks around the world. How do you see it now, if
:18:16. > :18:20.you think about people's personal debt, household debt? At the moment,
:18:21. > :18:24.a thing like a slowdown in growth in China feels a long way off but it is
:18:25. > :18:28.clear the Government is worried. It is not a long way off, it affects us
:18:29. > :18:34.directly. You talk about protecting us from international markets, the
:18:35. > :18:38.problems in international markets, but the truth is your boss has been
:18:39. > :18:42.on aeroplanes to China every other week, and India, securing all of
:18:43. > :18:45.those deals and the problem is, and I am not an economist but from a
:18:46. > :18:51.common-sense position, the absurd levels of growth that we have seen
:18:52. > :18:55.in China seemed too good to be true and if it seems too good to be true,
:18:56. > :19:00.often it is. And my fear and a lot of people's fear is the chickens
:19:01. > :19:04.will come home to roost at some point in the next period, perhaps,
:19:05. > :19:08.as some people are suggesting, there will be another crash coming and if
:19:09. > :19:12.that crash comes, my fear is yet again it will be overburdened, two
:19:13. > :19:19.big financial services industries that will be protected and people in
:19:20. > :19:22.Port Talbot will not be protected. I think the point that you make is
:19:23. > :19:26.incredibly important and it goes to the heart of what we are trying to
:19:27. > :19:31.do to protect economic security in Britain, doing that by getting the
:19:32. > :19:35.deficit down and ultimately the debt down, by supporting job creation,
:19:36. > :19:41.and we have seen record numbers of jobs. By rebalancing the economy, I
:19:42. > :19:46.entirely agree. When manufacturing output contracted in the most recent
:19:47. > :19:49.figures, how are you rebalancing the economy? Geographically we are
:19:50. > :19:53.rebalancing it by the investment in north of England in particular,
:19:54. > :19:58.areas like where I am from in Cheshire, extra investment, as
:19:59. > :20:02.opposed to just putting all the into London, but the rebalancing of the
:20:03. > :20:06.economy is the work of a generation because for far too long, there has
:20:07. > :20:09.been far too much focus on London. That was going to be the goal for
:20:10. > :20:13.the first five years of coalition government. When you are in
:20:14. > :20:17.government, you do what you can as fast as you can but then a problem
:20:18. > :20:21.like the fact that growth has been too much focused in London and the
:20:22. > :20:26.south-east is the sort of problem that you can't tackle in a short
:20:27. > :20:29.period of time, it takes ages, and where has growth been fastest in the
:20:30. > :20:33.last few years question mark not London and the south-east, but
:20:34. > :20:37.outside, especially the north and north-west. Can I just get a
:20:38. > :20:42.reaction from you to the postponement or calling off of the
:20:43. > :20:47.next strike by junior doctors? Well, I welcome the calling off of the
:20:48. > :20:52.strike. Has the Government compromised? I'm not that close to
:20:53. > :20:55.the details of the talks and I only heard the news as I came in but I
:20:56. > :21:00.think Giles was right when he said everybody would welcome the calling
:21:01. > :21:07.off of the strikes. The strikes were unnecessary... I didn't say that. I
:21:08. > :21:11.am saying that, because it is true and the proposals on the table from
:21:12. > :21:15.the Government are incredibly reasonable about a seven-day NHS.
:21:16. > :21:20.They will have to move to get this agreement. Jeremy Hunt is leading on
:21:21. > :21:23.those negotiations but I think it was wrong for the strike to go ahead
:21:24. > :21:28.and I am really glad they have suspended the next one. What measure
:21:29. > :21:31.could the Government take on interest rates if there is another
:21:32. > :21:35.global recession and we find ourselves being battered? You won't
:21:36. > :21:38.be able to cut interest rates. That is a matter for the Bank of England
:21:39. > :21:42.and as a strong supporter of the Bank of England, I will not get into
:21:43. > :21:44.monetary policies. It is rightly a matter for them. Well done, good
:21:45. > :21:48.answer. Thank you. Sensational, David,
:21:49. > :21:58.extraordinary night if, Just even as you were
:21:59. > :22:01.reading out those figures, you sensed cries of joy
:22:02. > :22:05.from the Conservatives, gloom on the faces
:22:06. > :22:07.of the Labour Party. The first is the exit poll is right
:22:08. > :22:19.and all the polls that came out in the last 24 hours -
:22:20. > :22:22.ours was one of 11 - all 11 showed Conservative-Labour
:22:23. > :22:25.neck and neck. If this exit poll is
:22:26. > :22:29.anywhere near right, this is beyond your
:22:30. > :22:32.worst nightmares? If this exit poll is right,
:22:33. > :22:35.Andrew, I will publicly was the run-up to last year's
:22:36. > :22:48.surprise general election result. And the reason it was a surprise
:22:49. > :22:51.was in part because opinion polls had consistently pointed to
:22:52. > :22:53.a much closer result and led to endless speculation
:22:54. > :22:56.that the country was heading As well as hanging their collective
:22:57. > :23:02.heads in shame, the pollsters also announced an independent inquiry
:23:03. > :23:08.and today it gave us its findings. Well, earlier, I asked the man
:23:09. > :23:10.leading the inquiry, Professor Patrick Sturgis,
:23:11. > :23:13.and asked him why the pollsters ended up with unrepresentative
:23:14. > :23:18.samples, as the report concluded. The way that the pollsters
:23:19. > :23:21.collect their samples is rather different than would
:23:22. > :23:24.be done in the Office for National Statistics,
:23:25. > :23:29.of for an academic survey, In those kinds of surveys,
:23:30. > :23:35.a random sample of the population is drawn and a great deal of effort
:23:36. > :23:40.and expense is expended in tracking down those exact people,
:23:41. > :23:44.and by doing that, you end up with a broadly representative sample
:23:45. > :23:48.of the whole population. The pollsters aren't
:23:49. > :23:51.really able to do that, it's too expensive, takes too long,
:23:52. > :23:55.and so they use a procedure called quota sampling, a method
:23:56. > :23:59.called quota sampling, and that is based on sort of getting
:24:00. > :24:03.more or less anyone they can, in broad terms, then weighting those
:24:04. > :24:13.people so that they look like the population,
:24:14. > :24:16.in ways that we know the population So we know from the census,
:24:17. > :24:21.the sort of age distribution and the social grade distribution,
:24:22. > :24:24.so they can sort of match the samples to look
:24:25. > :24:27.like the population and that is generally a good
:24:28. > :24:31.strategy, but it can go wrong and it sometimes does,
:24:32. > :24:35.and that is what happened in 2015. But why did it go wrong
:24:36. > :24:40.so dramatically in 2015? Because presumably, that has always
:24:41. > :24:42.been the broad methodology for pollsters and although,
:24:43. > :24:46.as you say, it may be too expensive to be scientific in the sense
:24:47. > :24:51.of the Office of National to be scientific in the sense
:24:52. > :24:54.of the Office for National Statistics, if it is going to go
:24:55. > :24:57.is badly wrong as it did in 2015, Well, I mean, you know,
:24:58. > :25:02.if we step back a bit and consider exactly how wrong they were,
:25:03. > :25:05.there are a number of different ways Of course, in terms
:25:06. > :25:14.of some of the key parts of the election, the SNP surge,
:25:15. > :25:17.you know, the reduction in Lib Dem support, Greens,
:25:18. > :25:19.Ukip, they got those Of course, they got the key thing
:25:20. > :25:24.wrong, which was the lead of the Conservatives over Labour
:25:25. > :25:26.and that is where attention, But it is fair to say that
:25:27. > :25:33.in previous elections, they may have been wrong in certain
:25:34. > :25:35.places, but there wasn't The Lib Dems, for example,
:25:36. > :25:43.were overestimated by all the pollsters in 2010
:25:44. > :25:45.but no one really cared, So I think if we look carefully
:25:46. > :25:52.at the historical record, then the pollsters do not tend
:25:53. > :25:56.to get every party share exactly right, and we wouldn't really
:25:57. > :25:59.expect them to. The other is, why did it happen this
:26:00. > :26:06.time and not in 2010? I mean, that is actually
:26:07. > :26:12.quite hard to pin down. It is likely to be the sort of,
:26:13. > :26:15.you know, changing in the electoral dynamics and perhaps,
:26:16. > :26:18.as has been suggested by John Curtis and others, that there was a sort
:26:19. > :26:23.of shift towards Labour amongst younger voters and towards
:26:24. > :26:28.Conservatives amongst older voters, and it is those kind of demographic
:26:29. > :26:33.shifts in party support that can lead to these kinds of errors,
:26:34. > :26:37.if you are using the same kind of weighting procedures from one
:26:38. > :26:41.election to the next, but if the underlying demographics
:26:42. > :26:46.and electoral dynamics change of it, then it can leave you prone
:26:47. > :26:49.to these kinds of errors. Well, we're joined now
:26:50. > :26:51.by the pollster Andrew Hawkins, he's from ComRes, and by
:26:52. > :27:04.the Labour MP Ben Bradshaw. Charles Fraser is still with us. Do
:27:05. > :27:07.you agree with the findings? By and large, there is a big presentation
:27:08. > :27:11.taking place this afternoon and the full findings will be published in
:27:12. > :27:16.March, so we haven't got any more information about what the professor
:27:17. > :27:21.has been looking at all has concluded, than you have, but what
:27:22. > :27:26.we have seen so far, yes, there are clearly something issues. I think
:27:27. > :27:29.the point that professor ProfesSturgis makes about voter
:27:30. > :27:32.dynamics is a really important one, because we worked really hard in the
:27:33. > :27:38.run-up to the election to try and get everything right, get everything
:27:39. > :27:42.the best possible quality and there was one little thing going on in the
:27:43. > :27:46.back of my mind from 2010, which was that in 2010, the Lib Dem surge
:27:47. > :27:53.fizzled out on the day and I think one of the things that we have done
:27:54. > :27:59.since the election is to model and produce our own voter turnout model,
:28:00. > :28:01.which factors in the differences between different Democratic groups
:28:02. > :28:05.in terms of their certainty to vote and we think that is one of the
:28:06. > :28:11.critical points, Professor Sturgis has two reduce a report which takes
:28:12. > :28:16.in all methodologies, all nine companies and it will apply to some
:28:17. > :28:21.more than others -- has to produce. Did it affect the outcome in your
:28:22. > :28:26.mind, or did it affect the strategy of the campaign if not the outcome?
:28:27. > :28:28.We will never know whether it affected the outcome but you are
:28:29. > :28:38.right, it massively affected the strategy of the campaign and the
:28:39. > :28:42.whole media approach, we try to get the debate back policy and the
:28:43. > :28:45.prospect a Conservative government, which I always thought was the
:28:46. > :28:50.likeliest outcome, but it was impossible, given the polls. And the
:28:51. > :28:54.whole campaign was dominated by speculation of a hung parliament,
:28:55. > :28:56.not about the prospect of Conservative majority government and
:28:57. > :29:01.of course that affected the campaign, we don't know if it
:29:02. > :29:06.affected the result. Do you accept that? The polls showed what seems to
:29:07. > :29:11.be the inevitability of a hung parliament and so the narrative was,
:29:12. > :29:18.to some extent, about deals with the SNP, about no one party dominating
:29:19. > :29:22.and it became about that process and not a straightforward fight between
:29:23. > :29:26.the Conservatives and Labour. I think there is always a tension
:29:27. > :29:31.between the shock and news value of a single pole and the long-term
:29:32. > :29:38.trend. The long-term trend was showing that the Conservatives had
:29:39. > :29:41.crossed over Labour's lead towards the end of 2014 and there were a
:29:42. > :29:47.number of us polling companies that didn't have a single Labour lead in
:29:48. > :29:52.2015. Our final press release or our final poll were showing the
:29:53. > :29:56.Conservatives were set to win the popular vote but, it is inevitably
:29:57. > :30:00.in the course of things, the shock headline gets the most column inches
:30:01. > :30:05.in the newspaper. Because it was vital, in some
:30:06. > :30:08.people's minds. Does it come down to money? Is it because you don't spend
:30:09. > :30:11.enough money getting proper representative samples which would
:30:12. > :30:16.have found those Conservative voters who perhaps were older and therefore
:30:17. > :30:17.less likely to take part in what you might characterise as younger,
:30:18. > :30:26.engaged Labour voters? There is a cocktail of causes.
:30:27. > :30:33.Resourcing is one of those factors. If you spent 200 thousand pounds on
:30:34. > :30:39.a poll and perhaps if you have the luxury of time as well, you will get
:30:40. > :30:44.the answer bang on. If you spend ?5,000 on a poll, you get 1 degrees
:30:45. > :30:50.of quality, if you spend 30,000, you get another. We shouldn't blame the
:30:51. > :30:54.pollsters, the media organisations who commissioned these polls are
:30:55. > :30:59.also responsible. They should commission fewer polls but spend
:31:00. > :31:03.more. There is a conspiracy of silence between the media and the
:31:04. > :31:08.pollsters. They have both got this wrong. The Labour Party's own
:31:09. > :31:13.private polling, which we didn't see... Was that the fault of the
:31:14. > :31:21.Labour Party? It was the fault of the Labour ship. -- leadership. I am
:31:22. > :31:26.glad they got it wrong. We should trust them lest. There will be a
:31:27. > :31:30.knock-on effect. We have all of these polls back come up and I was
:31:31. > :31:38.thinking about this earlier, it is a bit like that it on The Voice, they
:31:39. > :31:44.are looking at each other, are you going to do it? There is a herding
:31:45. > :31:49.that goes on with polls. Get rid of that, and when we go and vote, we
:31:50. > :31:55.think about the issues. But people do believe in the polls. Let's talk
:31:56. > :31:59.about this issue of herding. Not enough variability between the
:32:00. > :32:04.polls. The pollsters guilty of that? I don't think there is any conscious
:32:05. > :32:09.herding back goes on. In 2010, we all adjust our methodology over
:32:10. > :32:13.time. Most of us, if we are responsible and humble enough to
:32:14. > :32:17.accept to correct but we do over time, look at the difference between
:32:18. > :32:22.the outcome and polling at each election and make adjustments as we
:32:23. > :32:26.go. If we are making the right adjustments from one election to the
:32:27. > :32:29.other, there ought to be some similarity in the adjustments we are
:32:30. > :32:35.making which might push is in the same direction. If the voter
:32:36. > :32:39.dynamics change, we might collectively be making the same
:32:40. > :32:46.mistake. It is possible, I will not deny it. Honestly, the herding
:32:47. > :32:50.concept as a deliberate, if you like, underhand thing for the
:32:51. > :32:58.pollsters to do, I can categorically say it doesn't happen. So don't you
:32:59. > :33:03.have to look over your shoulder to see where the opinion of a certain
:33:04. > :33:08.body lies? I might hold my nose and think, we will go with this, it is
:33:09. > :33:13.different from what everyone is saying, but that is the business we
:33:14. > :33:22.are in. There weren't many polls during that campaign apart from the
:33:23. > :33:26.key one on the SNP. And that was the independence referendum, not the
:33:27. > :33:29.general election. The EU referendum will be a critical moment for the
:33:30. > :33:37.pollsters and critical moment for the media. One really interesting
:33:38. > :33:43.factor is that methodology, there is a divergences opening up between
:33:44. > :33:47.telephone polls and online polls. It comes back to the point about what
:33:48. > :33:53.makes a good headline. If you publish a poll that they remain neck
:33:54. > :33:59.and neck. The head line in the newspaper is one step closer to
:34:00. > :34:06.leaving the EU. If the headline is 20 points ahead, the newspapers went
:34:07. > :34:14.publish that as a splash. Briefly, will you trust polling again? Not
:34:15. > :34:17.until they spend enough and the people who commissioned them spend
:34:18. > :34:25.enough. And then, every Labour supporter will have to take 3% of
:34:26. > :34:28.our ratings. I thought it was 6%? Overall it was six. We have to
:34:29. > :34:32.acknowledge in the Labour Party, Giles might not like this, we are
:34:33. > :34:35.six points worse than the current polling is suggesting. Thank you
:34:36. > :34:38.both very much. The NHS is an organisation that
:34:39. > :34:41.still, in the main, keeps records Successive governments have tried to
:34:42. > :34:45.do something about that with major projects like digitising
:34:46. > :34:46.patient records. But they're also looking at ways of
:34:47. > :34:48.harnessing digital information to make us better,
:34:49. > :34:53.as Giles has been finding out. For Formula 1 McLaren racer Jenson
:34:54. > :35:01.Button, driving is far safer than in the days of Nikki Lauder
:35:02. > :35:05.or Ayrton Senna, but anybody might
:35:06. > :35:08.reasonably assume he's more likely to need a
:35:09. > :35:14.doctor than a doctor to need him. It turns out that, thanks to
:35:15. > :35:17.some clever chicanery trying to take the chequered flag
:35:18. > :35:24.first can advance medical science and McLaren are at the cutting edge
:35:25. > :35:29.of making that happen. In 1969, when McLaren's
:35:30. > :35:33.founder was racing in this, there were only really
:35:34. > :35:36.two ingredients to success. The quality of the car and the
:35:37. > :35:41.quality of the driver. Nowadays, there's a third thing -
:35:42. > :35:47.research. that means being able to take vast
:35:48. > :35:52.amounts of data very, very fast - so much so that you can actually
:35:53. > :35:56.apply it during the race. And there is no intrinsic reason
:35:57. > :36:00.why, if you can harvest that kind of data from a moving racing car, you
:36:01. > :36:04.can't take it from the human body. Doing just that is potentially
:36:05. > :36:10.putting us on the road to recovery, but also putting doctors firmly in
:36:11. > :36:14.control not only of diagnosing illnesses in humans as a species,
:36:15. > :36:17.but within you as an individual, and therefore engineering care for
:36:18. > :36:21.you as a specific machine The opportunity in the technology is
:36:22. > :36:30.not only to predict events before they occur, but to personalise
:36:31. > :36:33.treatment, so not doing what is best for the population but what is best
:36:34. > :36:37.for you, but more importantly, keeping you out of expensive
:36:38. > :36:41.health care environments where you can potentially be
:36:42. > :36:49.monitored and action be taken without ever having
:36:50. > :36:55.to step inside a hospital. This is an initial
:36:56. > :36:57.testing in a pilot project called the Real-time Adaptive
:36:58. > :37:04.Predicted Indicator of Deterioration The Government's Life Sciences
:37:05. > :37:10.Minister insists but part of lots of new ways
:37:11. > :37:15.technology can help the NHS. You are going to see
:37:16. > :37:18.diagnostic digital monitoring, they know who you are
:37:19. > :37:24.before you get there and they have your medicines
:37:25. > :37:26.prepared for you and personalised, and an NHS, a digital NHS
:37:27. > :37:29.that is able to monitor and measure performance and safety
:37:30. > :37:33.across the whole system. The thing that is likely to slow
:37:34. > :37:36.such advances down is patients their confidential help data
:37:37. > :37:41.needs to be stored that has tended to slam
:37:42. > :37:54.on the brakes of such ideas. Joining us now is George Freeman
:37:55. > :37:57.the Life Sciences Minister, and Renate Samson the Chief
:37:58. > :38:12.Executive of Big Brother Watch. Don't the upsides the digital NHS
:38:13. > :38:17.the downsides? There are some wonderful upsides of a digital NHS.
:38:18. > :38:21.Everything we discovered from that video shows some marvellous things
:38:22. > :38:25.about predict Ding health care, monitoring our health as we go along
:38:26. > :38:31.in our homes without having to go to hospital. However, we have to take
:38:32. > :38:37.things step by step. We have had a lot of problems with the process of
:38:38. > :38:40.digitising medical records. Medical records and our own personal health
:38:41. > :38:44.data is a sensitive issue for a lot of people. We need to know exactly
:38:45. > :38:52.what is going to happen, when, how and why, rather than the ever be an
:38:53. > :38:57.assumption? Are we asked, do people realise this will happen that all
:38:58. > :39:03.the records and personal information will be stored electronically? It is
:39:04. > :39:08.very patchy right now. There have been problems in the past with the
:39:09. > :39:12.data scheme. Initially people were not asked and then they were being
:39:13. > :39:15.informed it was going to happen but where expressed concerns about it
:39:16. > :39:22.through a leaflet to the door because it was tied up with pizza
:39:23. > :39:26.delivery leaflets coming through. That was criticised heavily and from
:39:27. > :39:31.my point of view, rightly so. Things have stopped, things slow down and
:39:32. > :39:34.that there has been a re-evaluation of how to engage with the public.
:39:35. > :39:40.There will be a lot of benefit with moving forward with digitisation. We
:39:41. > :39:45.are becoming digital citizens. We have to accept it will happen a
:39:46. > :39:49.little bit. But we still need to take people into consideration and
:39:50. > :39:53.not just assume because it is perceived it is wonderful, everybody
:39:54. > :39:55.will be happy. It is our choice what happens with our health care and
:39:56. > :40:01.should be our choice what happens with our medical data. Thank you
:40:02. > :40:06.very much. George Freeman, it has been patchy, do you accept that
:40:07. > :40:10.people haven't been informed in a uniform and comprehensive way,
:40:11. > :40:16.taking on board this pizza leaflet that was put through the door? Yes,
:40:17. > :40:20.NHS England would accept the way they did the consultation data was
:40:21. > :40:29.not case study in consultation. Partly for them it is so obvious a
:40:30. > :40:33.modern NHS requires to be digital. The truth is, for individual care,
:40:34. > :40:38.when an ambulance comes for you and you go to your doctor or to a
:40:39. > :40:41.hospital, we want the hospital to be ready, the GP to know and to be
:40:42. > :40:51.ready and click and look at your history and make sure we diagnose
:40:52. > :40:56.you properly. Far too many of my constituents have to repeat all the
:40:57. > :41:03.way down the care pathway. Medical records are stored with Treasury
:41:04. > :41:07.tags. Why in 2015, with this fabulous NHS are we trying to run it
:41:08. > :41:13.on paper and card board. We have to modernise the system. You said it
:41:14. > :41:17.has been done in Apache Way, so either people have not been told
:41:18. > :41:21.properly or the information has been shared with the parties they didn't
:41:22. > :41:26.know about, either deliberately or inadvertently. Do you accept that? I
:41:27. > :41:32.accept there hasn't been good in practice in the NHS. One thing we
:41:33. > :41:41.have set out is the national data Guardian. We are determined patients
:41:42. > :41:45.can trust the system properly. There will be independent proposals. We
:41:46. > :41:49.have made it illegal for the use of data for insurance purposes. You
:41:50. > :41:55.have made that are legal. We have put in place a system for giving
:41:56. > :42:02.patients the power, ultimately with a slide button on your phone so
:42:03. > :42:07.patients take control. When you ask patients do you want your medical
:42:08. > :42:13.records to be use for the purpose of NHS research and better treatments,
:42:14. > :42:18.most of the time 99% of people say yes. If it is an honour might, then
:42:19. > :42:22.there is more good in sharing vital information and you don't have to
:42:23. > :42:25.keep repeating the same bits of information about your symptoms and
:42:26. > :42:31.your state of health, every time you visit the hospital? The problem is,
:42:32. > :42:40.Digital Security cannot be guaranteed. People have been on this
:42:41. > :42:44.programme talking about people hacking mobile phone companies and
:42:45. > :42:47.all things. Does that mean we shouldn't have progress on it? I
:42:48. > :42:53.don't know what progress means. It is all right to have fancy films
:42:54. > :42:56.about racing cars, but regress is being able to stand in front of more
:42:57. > :43:02.doctors and nurses and not technology. Technology should only
:43:03. > :43:08.ever be a tool. People don't want to talk to the screen, they don't want
:43:09. > :43:12.to stay at home, they often want to see people who care and understand
:43:13. > :43:19.and listened. And the digital thing is not very good at understanding or
:43:20. > :43:22.caring, or listening. That is not what nurses or doctors will tell
:43:23. > :43:31.you. The patients are telling you they love the wireless telemetry the
:43:32. > :43:36.children in cardiac recovery. The nurses will tell you they are
:43:37. > :43:39.getting at 20 seven feet from each child which bleeps when the child
:43:40. > :43:46.has a problem. But allows them to deliver personalised care. When an
:43:47. > :43:50.ambulance comes, you want them to have an iPad, don't you? Isn't it a
:43:51. > :43:56.substitute for the medical staff themselves? Because elderly people
:43:57. > :44:03.in particular will want to see a person? No, it is there to exercise
:44:04. > :44:06.personal clinical judgment, armed with data that is accurate and
:44:07. > :44:11.up-to-date. If I went to my hospital, the nurses did the drug
:44:12. > :44:19.round. Now there is an electronic prescription. The nurses say it is
:44:20. > :44:26.brilliant. At they can spend time looking at the patient in the eye,
:44:27. > :44:33.checking the pulse. You have made it illegal for this data to go to third
:44:34. > :44:40.parties like insurance firms. Do they go to pharmaceutical companies?
:44:41. > :44:46.The report is about to come back with recommendations on consent and
:44:47. > :44:50.how we move forward. There is individual care, when the ambulance
:44:51. > :44:55.comes at the A and the local GP. There is data for NHS patient
:44:56. > :45:02.safety. We want to know where there is dangerous trap this and thirdly
:45:03. > :45:07.research. In research, the vast majority of the data is consented.
:45:08. > :45:14.Patients readily want the data used for research. It is how we allow
:45:15. > :45:16.data to flow through the NHS. So when you arrive, people know who you
:45:17. > :45:19.are and they know how to treat you. towards the 1.1 million migrants
:45:20. > :45:24.who arrived in the country in 2015 have changed since
:45:25. > :45:26.the start of the year. The men suspected of attacking women
:45:27. > :45:29.in Cologne on New Year's Eve were "almost exclusively"
:45:30. > :45:31.from a migration background, mainly North African and Arab,
:45:32. > :45:34.according to officials. So what does this mean for Germany's
:45:35. > :45:38.open-door policy on refugees? What happened in cities like Hamburg
:45:39. > :45:46.and Cologne Here, nearly 500 women allege they
:45:47. > :45:56.were sexually assaulted. The perpetrators said to be of North
:45:57. > :46:10.African and Arabic origin. Despite numerous complaints to the
:46:11. > :46:16.police, the authorities and the media were slow to report
:46:17. > :46:19.what had happened. When the news did come out days
:46:20. > :46:29.later, there were protests. With a background of record numbers
:46:30. > :46:31.of refugees and migrants arriving in Germany, Angela Merkel,
:46:32. > :46:34.they said, must do something. For her part, the Chancellor
:46:35. > :46:38.insisted Germany would do more to make clear to migrants what was and
:46:39. > :46:42.what was not culturally acceptable and she proposed changes to make it
:46:43. > :46:44.easier to deport asylum seekers But she has not calmed all fears
:46:45. > :46:52.nor silenced her critics. scuffles between pro-and
:46:53. > :46:56.anti-immigration groups There is no doubt what happened in
:46:57. > :47:05.Germany will colour a much wider debate
:47:06. > :47:07.about migration across Europe. What you can't do is take away from
:47:08. > :47:10.ordinary folk out there scenes such as Cologne and saying
:47:11. > :47:13.to themselves in three years' time, all of these people
:47:14. > :47:15.will have an EU passport and will be able to
:47:16. > :47:18.come to Britain. So far, one asylum seeker
:47:19. > :47:20.has been arrested over alleged sexual offences
:47:21. > :47:24.in Cologne on New Year's Eve. Whatever the outcome here, a wider
:47:25. > :47:28.question of integration and culture has been posed and, so far,
:47:29. > :47:36.not answered. We're joined now by Raheem Kassam
:47:37. > :48:41.from the right-wing news website 1.1 million migrants, my sources in
:48:42. > :48:45.the European security services said it is more like 1.5 million because
:48:46. > :48:51.they don't count over stayers or people they don't know. My question
:48:52. > :48:55.was is it wrong for people to change their mind so dramatically as a
:48:56. > :49:00.result of a number of incidents, in the general view towards migrants? I
:49:01. > :49:04.don't think so, these are where the warnings were originally. At the
:49:05. > :49:10.forefront of this, those people weren't listening. Now they have had
:49:11. > :49:13.to see it and these people have had to go through bad situations for
:49:14. > :49:17.these people to see the problem. There were warnings countries like
:49:18. > :49:22.Germany wouldn't be able to cope, from people within Germany, that the
:49:23. > :49:28.open door policy towards refugees would lead to problems. I surprised
:49:29. > :49:32.by this change following reports of sexual assaults in Germany? The
:49:33. > :49:39.sexual assaults are about things. That I think it has been blown out
:49:40. > :49:44.of proportion. A few months ago I had a 16-year-old boy murder another
:49:45. > :49:47.16-year-old boy about half a mile from my parish, from my church.
:49:48. > :49:54.Doesn't even make the national press. This thing suddenly becomes a
:49:55. > :49:58.way of focusing all our anxieties and so forth. Yes, incorporating
:49:59. > :50:04.large numbers of people, and from my mind, the more the merrier, because
:50:05. > :50:08.they are being saved from a terrible situation from Syria and North
:50:09. > :50:11.Africa and so forth. Yes it will be difficult, but I think we should
:50:12. > :50:13.absolutely be up for the troubles back on.
:50:14. > :50:22.You are blaming a group of people for the action of a few bad apples.
:50:23. > :50:26.I don't think everybody thinking every migrant in Europe. Raping
:50:27. > :50:32.people. You had Charlie Hebdo showing the three-year-old boy who
:50:33. > :50:40.died trying to make it over to Europe to be in their minds a bum
:50:41. > :50:42.groper. But they do it to show how ridiculous it is and nobody is
:50:43. > :50:46.saying all of these migrants ridiculous it is and nobody is
:50:47. > :50:50.rapists or sexual assault is all robbers, but we are saying we don't
:50:51. > :50:54.know who the people who are coming our. There are criminals, there are
:50:55. > :51:03.terrorists, we know that to be a fact and it is true. And we have as
:51:04. > :51:07.many home grown people who are born and bred in this country who are
:51:08. > :51:14.rapists, who are criminals and why is it that we are demonising a
:51:15. > :51:19.particular... They are called the population in general, that is what
:51:20. > :51:27.they are called. Why not proper background checks? I don't think
:51:28. > :51:33.that is practical. So just let them all in? Open the floodgates and let
:51:34. > :51:41.everyone in. I have just said yes. Why do you keep on saying ISIS,
:51:42. > :51:45.cursing these people with that? They are running away from ISIS, they are
:51:46. > :51:49.running away from their bombs, this war that we have done too much to
:51:50. > :51:54.stoke up and create an actually, if we close the doors on them, we are
:51:55. > :52:00.doubling up... I didn't say close the doors, I said proper background
:52:01. > :52:05.checks. Do you think there is a case of Islam phobia here that is sort of
:52:06. > :52:08.masquerading as anti-migrant or anti-refugee, using the sort of
:52:09. > :52:15.sentiments you are saying, actually, they are anti-Islam? I have a big
:52:16. > :52:23.problem with the word Islam phobia. Being raised in a Muslim family,
:52:24. > :52:26.having it raised against me, as you said, it is a few people in there
:52:27. > :52:31.that might be instinctively hateful towards Islam that you are tarring a
:52:32. > :52:36.whole anti-migration movement, said the same thing can be held back and
:52:37. > :52:41.forth. But conflating the to does the same thing, isn't it going to be
:52:42. > :52:45.exploited by the far right and extremist movements? I think you are
:52:46. > :52:49.over estimating the far right, especially in Germany. They have
:52:50. > :52:53.strict rules on what they can and can't do on their marches. 5,000
:52:54. > :52:56.people went to the streets in Dresden, they are not allowed to
:52:57. > :53:00.drink, shout and if they are doing that, they are kicked out. Do you
:53:01. > :53:05.think it is a bit lazy and complacent if people do suggest this
:53:06. > :53:14.is just Islam phobia? It is Islam phobia. It is patented it clear that
:53:15. > :53:21.the way in which people are being targeted and the language that is
:53:22. > :53:25.being used about Islam and Muslims is clearly provocative and, indeed,
:53:26. > :53:28.through our Government and the Prevent strategy and all that
:53:29. > :53:33.nonsense, it is targeting Muslims and it does not help and we have do
:53:34. > :53:37.trust that the rule of law is blind to all that, that is how it should
:53:38. > :53:41.be and we shouldn't be targeting Muslims. Refugees should be welcome.
:53:42. > :53:42.Thank you, I am going to have to end it there.
:53:43. > :53:45.We often hear people wondering if the UK is still a Christian country.
:53:46. > :53:48.But according to a new study being presented at the British Academy
:53:49. > :53:52.Lecture tonight, the new norm may be to have no religion at all - with a
:53:53. > :53:55.majority of white Britons, according to the study, saying they don't
:53:56. > :53:59.Well, that may go some way to explaining the popularity of
:54:00. > :54:02.something called the Sunday Assembly, a gathering for
:54:03. > :54:04.non-religious people who want a similar communal experience to going
:54:05. > :54:09.Here's how the BBC covered the Sunday Assembly
:54:10. > :54:17.I am, if anything, overqualified for this job!
:54:18. > :54:20.It is said to be the first atheist church in Britain
:54:21. > :54:25.and the service is led by a comedian called Sanderson Jones.
:54:26. > :54:27.Let's not start handing around titles,
:54:28. > :54:32.because I think the moment you get a title,
:54:33. > :54:35.you are just a short distance from a robe and a silly hat.
:54:36. > :54:38.Instead of hymns, they sing pop songs.
:54:39. > :54:40.Instead of prayers, there is two minutes of silence.
:54:41. > :54:42.If you wouldn't mind just closing your eyes.
:54:43. > :54:48.And the only cross to be found here is on the first aid kit.
:54:49. > :54:52.the Sunday Assembly has spread to other cities around the world,
:54:53. > :54:54.and you saw one of its founders in the clip there,
:54:55. > :55:01.the comedian Sanderson Jones, who joins us now.
:55:02. > :55:12.So, how did you come up with this idea? Well, I left a Christmas carol
:55:13. > :55:15.concert about ten years ago and I thought there is so much about this
:55:16. > :55:18.I love, singing songs, coming together as a community and I am
:55:19. > :55:21.thinking about the many things I would like to improve about myself
:55:22. > :55:27.and helping other people but there was one bit I couldn't get excited
:55:28. > :55:30.about, the God bit, but I am so transcendentally delighted to be
:55:31. > :55:35.alive, wouldn't it be wonderful to come together to celebrate that.
:55:36. > :55:41.Isn't that religion promotes people anyway? They don't necessarily
:55:42. > :55:44.believe the words of the Scriptures, they like the pics you like, the
:55:45. > :55:48.singing, the communal feeling and going to a meeting place. What a
:55:49. > :55:55.great advertisement for Sunday Assembly, thank you very much, I
:55:56. > :55:58.drink later. There is that bit like when I go to my friends who are
:55:59. > :56:01.getting married in a church because they like the building and they talk
:56:02. > :56:05.about it being in front of God, I can't connect, whereas we do it in a
:56:06. > :56:09.way where everyone can connect. What are you going to do about that? It
:56:10. > :56:16.is a real challenge. Let many flowers bloom, I am very happy and I
:56:17. > :56:20.hope it goes well. It wouldn't really work for me and in fact, it
:56:21. > :56:26.wouldn't really work for me because what I don't like, and you have sort
:56:27. > :56:32.of copied, is you are charismatic atheists, see it is charismatic
:56:33. > :56:37.theology into atheism and I am a Catholic by anaesthetics, so I like
:56:38. > :56:44.a different sort of aesthetic. So it is quite interesting -- by aspect
:56:45. > :56:48.it. It is a sort of Hill song charismatic type of thing but I
:56:49. > :56:54.think it would be very difficult to reproduce and more Catholic
:56:55. > :56:57.spirituality. Is it sustainable? So far, there are 70 in eight different
:56:58. > :57:02.countries on three different continents. We are trying to work
:57:03. > :57:07.out how to configure it, we had 500 people at the last one in London and
:57:08. > :57:10.intriguingly, two Housing Association is commissioned us to
:57:11. > :57:12.build Sunday Assembly for them because they love the community
:57:13. > :57:17.aspect and councils are getting in touch because they say you create
:57:18. > :57:20.community, communities that after people and I am in it for bringing
:57:21. > :57:24.people together and I think some of them are in it for the bean
:57:25. > :57:28.counting, but whatever works. Is it an admission that there is a failure
:57:29. > :57:30.on the church to keep big congregations and attract new
:57:31. > :57:35.members that this group seem to be filling? The church is losing
:57:36. > :57:42.members and, Juno what it doesn't really bother me? -- do you know
:57:43. > :57:45.what, it doesn't fully bother me. I am not ultimately sustained about
:57:46. > :57:49.whether there is a lot of it. For me, God exists and that is what is
:57:50. > :57:53.wonderful and that won't change, however many people come and go to
:57:54. > :57:58.my church. Actually, we are doing pretty well but I am glad this is
:57:59. > :58:04.happening, I think it is a good thing. Will you go along if you are
:58:05. > :58:08.not busy? I do do things on Sunday, I have a slight problem there! What
:58:09. > :58:13.is good about this is one of the things sociologically, coming
:58:14. > :58:17.together, like church, is a good delivery system for ethics and what
:58:18. > :58:21.you are doing is actually just copying the church's delivery system
:58:22. > :58:25.in quite a good way. The one I look at is how mindfulness looked at
:58:26. > :58:29.dedication and made it a secular and inclusive, we are looking at the
:58:30. > :58:30.church, making it secular and inclusive and trying to create
:58:31. > :58:32.something new. Thank you. There's just time before we go to
:58:33. > :58:35.find out the answer to our quiz. Which of these words was not used to
:58:36. > :58:52.describe Mr Trump during the debate? I don't know what poltroon means.
:58:53. > :58:57.Battles the answer, I think it means cower. -- that was. Thank you for
:58:58. > :58:58.all of our guests and I will be back with Andrew tomorrow with Prime
:58:59. > :59:03.Minister's Questions. Goodbye. Let your New Year start with a bang
:59:04. > :59:10.and visit an explosive new China.