:00:38. > :00:39.Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics.
:00:40. > :00:43.Are we heading for another financial economic crisis?
:00:44. > :00:46.Billions of pounds have been wiped off shares here and abroad,
:00:47. > :00:49.in response to a collapse in oil prices and growing concern
:00:50. > :00:54.The IMF and other major institutions have all downgraded
:00:55. > :01:06.Or are we heading for a major downturn?
:01:07. > :01:08.Some of the biggest political beasts have done the job,
:01:09. > :01:12.but what does it take to be a good Secretary of State for Health?
:01:13. > :01:14.Labour spent nearly ?5,000 on this snazzy little number
:01:15. > :01:22.at the General Election, but was it money well spent?
:01:23. > :01:28.It is all going to be done, no slanging matches, just say - what
:01:29. > :01:34.awful weather we are having. And loathe them or loathe them,
:01:35. > :01:37.the Home Secretary announces she's killing off the friendly
:01:38. > :01:39.traffic warden. All that in the next hour of TV
:01:40. > :01:42.gold, which swept the board at last night's National
:01:43. > :01:43.Television Awards. And with us for the duration,
:01:44. > :01:47.the former Chairman of Conservative Home,
:01:48. > :01:48.Tim Montgomerie. He also writes for
:01:49. > :01:51.the Times you know. At the moment he's upped sticks
:01:52. > :01:55.and lives in Washington DC, Now first today, to the public
:01:56. > :02:04.inquiry into the killing of the former Russian spy,
:02:05. > :02:06.Alexander Litvinenko in 2006. The inquiry found that his murder
:02:07. > :02:09.was probably approved by President The report found it was
:02:10. > :02:15.likely that the two men who put a radioactive
:02:16. > :02:17.substance in his tea at a London hotel, were acting
:02:18. > :02:21.under the direction of the Russian Secret Service,
:02:22. > :02:33.overseen by Mr Putin. Theresa May has been giving a
:02:34. > :02:36.statement in the House of Commons and has obviously said not only was
:02:37. > :02:39.this not a surprise but they have taken action, because this was ten
:02:40. > :02:43.years ago. Because there isn't much more they can do, is there? There is
:02:44. > :02:48.plenty they could do if they wanted to. We are sat in, I think probably
:02:49. > :02:52.the greatest city on Earth at the moment, London, but one of the
:02:53. > :02:55.reasons why it has had so much money from abroad coming in, is we are
:02:56. > :03:00.very tolerant of where people get their money from. People buying
:03:01. > :03:03.properties in London and Kensington and some of the more desire
:03:04. > :03:07.properties in London. Bout through shell companies. We have no idea who
:03:08. > :03:10.is behind the shell companies. A lot of those people are the people
:03:11. > :03:14.supposedly subject to sanctions. Britain could do an awful lot more
:03:15. > :03:18.to investigate the money that's flowing into London and stop some of
:03:19. > :03:22.the rich Russians who are behind some of the deeds we are complaining
:03:23. > :03:26.about, from getting here. Right. You say they could do more, as you say
:03:27. > :03:30.the problem is there are reasons that they probably won't do much
:03:31. > :03:33.more, except Theresa May has said that obviously they'll continue to
:03:34. > :03:38.chase the two suspects and that they are going to freeze the assets of
:03:39. > :03:41.those two chief suspects. But in a statement from the Prime Minister's
:03:42. > :03:45.spokesman, they have to weigh carefully the need to take measures
:03:46. > :03:49.and respond with the need to work with Russia, not just domestically
:03:50. > :03:52.but also in foreign affairs. That's the great truth, Jo. We feel,
:03:53. > :03:56.Britain feels, the Foreign Office feels we need to work with the
:03:57. > :04:01.Russians at the moment in the battle against ISIS, which means cuddling
:04:02. > :04:06.up to Assad, not annoying the rush yabs. So, it is the battle against
:04:07. > :04:12.ISIS, more than anything else that is stopping us taking any action
:04:13. > :04:16.against Russia. Assad, who I think was the cause of the Syrian civil
:04:17. > :04:22.war, we are keeping him in place, keeping close to the Russians. It is
:04:23. > :04:27.an una attractive set of real politics situations.
:04:28. > :04:30.The world's financial markets have settled down a lttile this morning
:04:31. > :04:33.but it's still the worst start to a year since the 2008 financial
:04:34. > :04:35.crisis, with investors dumping equities because of the slide
:04:36. > :04:38.in the price of oil and about China's stalling economic growth.
:04:39. > :04:42.Both are taken as indications that the world economy
:04:43. > :04:49.Yesterday, at one point, more than ?50 billion
:04:50. > :04:52.was wiped from the value of Britain's biggest businesses,
:04:53. > :04:57.as the UK stock market plunged to its lowest level in four years.
:04:58. > :05:02.The FTSE 100 is down 20% since it's peak last April.
:05:03. > :05:04.Well, world leaders are meeting in Davos, at the World Economic
:05:05. > :05:10.From there let's talk to our Correspondent,
:05:11. > :05:19.You are full of bankers and global businessmen there. What are they
:05:20. > :05:23.say? How worried are they about prospects for 2016?
:05:24. > :05:28.# Well, Andrew, it looks picture perfect here. Those moments in the
:05:29. > :05:35.markets you were talking about cast a big shadow over this shindig in
:05:36. > :05:44.the Alps yesterday. As you say the FTSE 100 followed her major indices,
:05:45. > :05:48.down 20%. That meanses in a bare market, the direction of travel is
:05:49. > :05:52.down. People are worried about where the global growth is coming from.
:05:53. > :05:57.You say China is decelerating. Who will take over the baton? Is India
:05:58. > :06:01.ready to do that? Without global growth, the value of the companies
:06:02. > :06:06.on the followcy 100 justify the valuations put on them, or have the
:06:07. > :06:09.markets been pumped up and discourt torted by quantitative easing and
:06:10. > :06:12.will he interest rates. Now the direction of travel on that has
:06:13. > :06:14.changed, do they have the fundamentals to fall back on and
:06:15. > :06:19.that's what people are worried about. How worried are they about
:06:20. > :06:23.the Chinese economy, one of the main reasons why global equity markets
:06:24. > :06:27.have gone the way they have gone this month? Well, there is some
:06:28. > :06:31.scepticism about the official figures. I spoke to the former
:06:32. > :06:35.number 2 at the Central Bank of China yesterday. He said - look, we
:06:36. > :06:38.have put our numbers together by generally accepted international
:06:39. > :06:42.standards. Yes, we are slowing but there is no reason to suspect that
:06:43. > :06:46.the growth rate there is not 7%. I think what is more worrying in the
:06:47. > :06:50.Chinese economy is things like the property market which has boomed,
:06:51. > :06:54.propped up by a massive increase in credit. If those house can't be sold
:06:55. > :06:57.you might get a property bust which can spread throughout the financial
:06:58. > :07:02.system. That's the warning light there. But there are waves of nausea
:07:03. > :07:06.coming off, thinking, is this just a shock market correction, the kind of
:07:07. > :07:10.thing that happens once in a while after a long wrong, or does it say
:07:11. > :07:13.down the road there is something more unpleasant coming to the global
:07:14. > :07:19.economy. Markets often predict what is going to happen in a few months'
:07:20. > :07:24.time or a year's time in the real economy. It happened in 2008 and
:07:25. > :07:28.some big hitters are saying we are heading for a 2008-type scenario.
:07:29. > :07:32.Most of the people I speak to here say they cannot see a global
:07:33. > :07:36.recession but the question is - does the stock market, is it worth the
:07:37. > :07:40.valuations it is getting, or is this the moment of reckoning, when people
:07:41. > :07:42.have a reality check and say prospects
:07:43. > :07:46.have a reality check and say you very much for, that enjoy your
:07:47. > :07:49.time in Davos, it is a good place to meet be everybody. Let's pick up on
:07:50. > :07:51.some of these points. And with us now, the former
:07:52. > :07:53.International Development Minister, Alan Duncan and Labour MP,
:07:54. > :07:56.Stephen Kinnock, who used to work Alan, Duncan, the stock markets are
:07:57. > :08:05.reacting in the way they do, Alan, Duncan, the stock markets are
:08:06. > :08:07.they are concerned about the course of the world economy. They look at
:08:08. > :08:10.the price of oil and see of the world economy. They look at
:08:11. > :08:15.demand. They look at what is of the world economy. They look at
:08:16. > :08:20.too. Are they right? Are they right to be worried that the global
:08:21. > :08:24.economy is in danger of recession? I think they probably
:08:25. > :08:24.economy is in danger of recession? I of the problems of analysts at the
:08:25. > :08:27.moment is they are underestimating moment is they are underestimating
:08:28. > :08:31.the significance of the collapse in oil which has been so dramatic and
:08:32. > :08:35.relatively quick. Although this is great for ?1 at the pumps, it is
:08:36. > :08:42.going to have very, very tough effects else where. Fist of all, it
:08:43. > :08:47.is as much a political problem in most Gov-producing companies need
:08:48. > :08:50.$80 to pay their way. They'll face political turmoil them. 'Have
:08:51. > :08:54.$80 to pay their way. They'll face suck a lot of money from Western
:08:55. > :08:57.markets to pay the deficit which will put pressure on liquidity and
:08:58. > :09:01.interest rates. You will look at companies like Shell that don't have
:09:02. > :09:05.dividends for pensions. The North Sea Oil is falling to bits. I think
:09:06. > :09:08.you will see a lot of pressure on companies and company debt. I think
:09:09. > :09:12.we'll see big corporate failures, not just in the oil sector but also
:09:13. > :09:16.elsewhere, because of all of this. This is a big problem. Economic in
:09:17. > :09:22.many respects, but deeply political, in a whole global context. Do you
:09:23. > :09:26.foresee 2016 being the year recession returns? I think there are
:09:27. > :09:29.some real risks. What we are seeing is the fundamentals of the economy
:09:30. > :09:37.are not strong enough. You are seeing a shift in China from being a
:09:38. > :09:41.country that has been the safer, to being an spender. They are trying to
:09:42. > :09:45.stimulate domestic consumption. Still a massive safer, though.
:09:46. > :09:49.Absolutely but I think that transition is painful and there are
:09:50. > :09:55.growing pains. So it reflects an imbalance. I think we are also
:09:56. > :09:59.seeing, in the UK, exposure because our economy is imbalanced. Look at
:10:00. > :10:03.our trade deficit and productivity crisis. What major economy, perhaps
:10:04. > :10:07.other than America s in better shape than perhaps the British economy? It
:10:08. > :10:12.depends on how you define "better shape." Give me one. The quantity of
:10:13. > :10:15.growth fine, the question for me is about the quaulted of growth.
:10:16. > :10:21.Unemployment figures going down but what sort of jobs are we creating.
:10:22. > :10:25.Productivity crisis the worst it has been in living memory. That is
:10:26. > :10:29.depends on the industry. Productivity in the car industry is
:10:30. > :10:33.one of the highest in the world and never been higher. I'm more
:10:34. > :10:37.concerned about signs of resechlingts you is both seem to
:10:38. > :10:39.think it is on the who are eye zovenlt when you look at the
:10:40. > :10:44.economic fundamentals, of course economic growth, global growth is
:10:45. > :10:48.hardly sparkling but nor is any major region with the exception of a
:10:49. > :10:54.couple of emerging markets in recession. What the is to stop us
:10:55. > :11:02.just continuing to go along at 2% to 3% growth. If you go back to 2006/7,
:11:03. > :11:10.people didn't see Liamen brothers coming but it came. An economy like
:11:11. > :11:14.the UK, we are far too reliable on consumer-driven debt rather than
:11:15. > :11:18.domestic growth. Household debts will be lower than in 2008. It is
:11:19. > :11:25.massive. Well relative to assets it is not. I'm puzzled to see the gloom
:11:26. > :11:31.and doom here. I could see you couldn't write a boom scenario for
:11:32. > :11:34.the global economy, the IMF, World Bank, OECD have downgraded its
:11:35. > :11:37.forecasts but China is still growing, maybe less than before.
:11:38. > :11:41.India is growing faster than it has for sometime. Even the eurozone is
:11:42. > :11:45.now going to get about 1% growth. The American economy is still at
:11:46. > :11:50.2.5%. We are expected to grow by 2.5%. Where does the recession come
:11:51. > :11:53.from? I think we, as the UK, are in a comparatively strong position. I
:11:54. > :11:58.think we are fairly well underpinned. The point I make is not
:11:59. > :12:03.so much that we are going to go into a 2008 collapse and recession, as
:12:04. > :12:11.that oil prices at this level are not an automatic stimulus to good,
:12:12. > :12:17.broad economic global growth and that accompanying dramatic collapse
:12:18. > :12:21.will be real political pressures. Already Venezuela is almost
:12:22. > :12:28.bankrupt. That's marginal compared to the global economy. Brazil is in
:12:29. > :12:32.marginal state in GDP terms? You are in the oil market. You were in the
:12:33. > :12:35.oil market. Let me ask you this - oil is cyclical. What we will see
:12:36. > :12:40.this year, the Russians already talking about cutting production.
:12:41. > :12:47.Partly because they can't get it out, for other reasons as W Shale in
:12:48. > :12:51.America will take a dive in America because the price has fallen. When
:12:52. > :12:55.do you think the oil price starts it tick up again? There is a lot in
:12:56. > :12:59.storage which has to be consumed. Iran is coming onstream with an
:13:00. > :13:03.extra one or two million barrels a day. Libya if there is a political
:13:04. > :13:07.settlement could go up from 250,000 barrels a day to 1.6 million. The
:13:08. > :13:11.volumes stand to be over the next year or two, still a lot larger than
:13:12. > :13:15.consumer demand. My view isn't so much that we will see complete
:13:16. > :13:18.economic collapse as that accompanying the fall in oil and
:13:19. > :13:23.commodity prices, there is no automatic stimulus and there is
:13:24. > :13:26.massive political danger in already the region, the turmoil, adding to
:13:27. > :13:30.the turmoil in the region that's there already. Thats' my main point.
:13:31. > :13:36.It is not universal good news is all I'm saying. If we were to ties
:13:37. > :13:39.another downturn as a result of external factors -- if we were to
:13:40. > :13:45.face. We are vulnerable to all sorts of
:13:46. > :13:48.external forces F that was to provoke another downturn, what
:13:49. > :13:52.weapons should the Government, whether Labour or Government, deploy
:13:53. > :13:58.to deal with that downturn? For me, the watchword is resilience. You
:13:59. > :14:01.need to build an economy that has the flexibility to absorb a shock
:14:02. > :14:05.and bounce back. In order to do that I think you need a proper active
:14:06. > :14:09.industrial policy. We unfortunately have a Secretary of State for
:14:10. > :14:12.Business and innovative skills. What is an active policy Proper
:14:13. > :14:16.investment in skills, infrastructure, energy. The whole
:14:17. > :14:21.basis for an economy that actually starts it make things again. These
:14:22. > :14:25.are all long-term issues. I want to bring Tim Montgomerie in. They are
:14:26. > :14:29.long-term reforms you are advocating. What should the
:14:30. > :14:33.Government macroeconomic response be if we hit a downturn caused by
:14:34. > :14:36.external force this is year? Really there aren't that many moneyly it
:14:37. > :14:44.levers left. Interest rates are as will he as they can be. You could go
:14:45. > :14:48.negative. They could. Switzerland is negative and Sweden and the ECB. The
:14:49. > :14:51.borrowing costs are higher than the headline interests. Still
:14:52. > :14:57.historically. We are short of weapons. That's why a more Keynesen
:14:58. > :15:03.approach is the way forward. You are in the United States. The American
:15:04. > :15:08.economy is chugging along, I put it no higher than that. It has been
:15:09. > :15:12.said it is growing but no momentum. Where do you think we are in terms
:15:13. > :15:18.of the economic cycle. Does the market ties another downturn? Good
:15:19. > :15:21.and bad. India benefits from the lower oil prices and mucher Europe.
:15:22. > :15:25.Alan is right it talk about the problems in the Middle East but a
:15:26. > :15:29.lot of the world economy will benefit. The key question is the one
:15:30. > :15:34.that you ask - we spent an awful lot of money, borrowed a lot to get us
:15:35. > :15:38.out of the last crash. We are only half way to get right of the
:15:39. > :15:40.deficit. For example in Britain, in the Autumn Statement last year,
:15:41. > :15:46.George Osborne gambled on growth continuing to get there.
:15:47. > :15:53.He spent the ?27 billion he found down the back of the sofa. The other
:15:54. > :15:58.issue is quantitative easing, you asked about America and there are
:15:59. > :16:06.now huge questions about inequality. A lot of Republican and Democrat
:16:07. > :16:10.opposition are using that. The United States has begun the rise in
:16:11. > :16:16.interest rates before sorting out the bad news, will it continue
:16:17. > :16:20.rising rates? They will wait. No, and we have to keep calm and carry
:16:21. > :16:25.on. I agree that they won't. Thank you for joining us. It's a very
:16:26. > :16:28.large sofa that George Osborne has got. It must be to have 27 billion
:16:29. > :16:31.in it! Well, David Cameron's due to make
:16:32. > :16:34.a speech in Davos in just over The Prime Minister's expected
:16:35. > :16:38.to call on business leaders to make the case for the UK to remain
:16:39. > :16:41.inside a reformed European Union. He's pledged to hold a referendum
:16:42. > :16:43.on the UK's membership, once he's finished his attempts
:16:44. > :16:45.to negotiate changes. Let's talk now to our
:16:46. > :16:55.Correspondent, Eleanor Garnier. Tell us first about the latest news
:16:56. > :17:01.on timing and choreography once he has the negotiated settlement he is
:17:02. > :17:05.looking for? Well, David Cameron said his ministers will be allowed
:17:06. > :17:08.to campaign to leave the EU but only after the government has come to an
:17:09. > :17:13.agreed position and it will have to be made at a cabinet meeting. The
:17:14. > :17:19.summit is happening on Thursday and Friday, but a Cabinet meeting is
:17:20. > :17:24.held on choose day so Euro sceptics worry that the 48 hours could be
:17:25. > :17:27.critical will stop and David Cameron may have an advantage over the
:17:28. > :17:33.weekend because he could come back and say, I have got a deal in Europe
:17:34. > :17:37.and been victorious, and he can make his case to stay in Europe. The
:17:38. > :17:40.Eurosceptics will have dessert on their hands because the government
:17:41. > :17:46.will not yet have come to an agreed position. Downing Street are saying
:17:47. > :17:51.today that actually there will be a Cabinet soon after a deal has been
:17:52. > :17:58.done, so we could see one on Saturday or even Sunday. We don't
:17:59. > :18:02.know yet. They are not giving a time or a day. During the campaign or the
:18:03. > :18:07.renegotiation, David Cameron and his team have had to rebuff claims that
:18:08. > :18:11.actually this referendum has been rigged and it's all been far too
:18:12. > :18:16.easy. Downing Street don't want to be seen to be taking advantage of
:18:17. > :18:19.the weekend so they will give the Eurosceptics what they want even
:18:20. > :18:22.though we don't yet have a date and time. Thank you very much.
:18:23. > :18:24.Joining us now is the Executive Director for Britain Stronger
:18:25. > :18:32.Welcome to the Daily Politics. First of all, just picking up on that,
:18:33. > :18:36.what do you make of the change in how they will choreograph the post
:18:37. > :18:41.negotiated settlement Cabinet meeting? Those 72 hours after David
:18:42. > :18:46.Cameron comes back are incredibly important. First impressions really
:18:47. > :18:59.count, lots of people are waiting for the renegotiation is -- the
:19:00. > :19:02.renegotiation outcome. If he can get the sceptics do say that he has a
:19:03. > :19:06.brilliant deal that could settle in the public mind and if the Cabinet
:19:07. > :19:12.Eurosceptics aren't able to speak until Monday or Tuesday after words,
:19:13. > :19:17.again, the one-sided debate that the Prime Minister has set up continues.
:19:18. > :19:20.The danger is that there will be resignations from the Cabinet if the
:19:21. > :19:24.Cabinet meeting doesn't happen very early after renegotiation. It
:19:25. > :19:30.doesn't sound like the arrangement would hold anyway because they would
:19:31. > :19:33.speak out anyway. Will they? Are you sure that the Eurosceptic Cabinet
:19:34. > :19:40.ministers are actually going to speak out, even when the veil of
:19:41. > :19:46.silence has been lifted? There are at least five Cabinet ministers who
:19:47. > :19:50.will definitely campaign for an exit. Chris Grayling, Iain Duncan
:19:51. > :19:55.Smith, Theresa Villiers, Priti Patel, and John Whittingdale. The
:19:56. > :20:01.people in the balance are people like Sajid Javid. If the Business
:20:02. > :20:05.Secretary says that Britain will survive outside the EU, that is
:20:06. > :20:07.significant. I would not be optimistic about Boris Johnson, I'm
:20:08. > :20:19.pretty sure he will be on optimistic about Boris Johnson, I'm
:20:20. > :20:22.out campaign ten points ahead? Will that make a difference
:20:23. > :20:24.out campaign ten points ahead? Will Johnson? It
:20:25. > :20:28.out campaign ten points ahead? Will lots of them will not want to be on
:20:29. > :20:30.the losing side. Are you disappointed that that is the case?
:20:31. > :20:37.the losing side. Are you Boris Johnson would certainly give
:20:38. > :20:40.them a boost. I am a past unit supporter of Britain becoming
:20:41. > :20:45.independent like Australia, Canada, Japan. These nations run their own
:20:46. > :20:47.affairs and Britain should as well. Ministers have said privately and
:20:48. > :20:56.publicly over the years that unless there is significant change they
:20:57. > :21:01.would campaign for an exit. In future leadership elections for the
:21:02. > :21:03.Conservative Party, there could be consequences if they don't.
:21:04. > :21:08.Listening to that, let's talk about Labour. We spoke to the co-chair of
:21:09. > :21:25.the Labour campaign to leave the EU and she said around 25-30-0 MPs --
:21:26. > :21:32.Labour MPs would support Brexit. Well over 90% have been signed up by
:21:33. > :21:35.Alan Johnson to his in campaign. Most Labour MPs have moved their
:21:36. > :21:41.mind Andy made up their mind clearly. Jeremy Corbyn is clear
:21:42. > :21:46.about his position. Alan Johnson has been working with Labour MPs around
:21:47. > :21:50.Britain. Of course in the cross-party campaign we have people
:21:51. > :21:57.from Labour, SNP, Greens, the Conservatives, Plaid Cymru, all
:21:58. > :22:02.working to keep Britain in the European Union. Should MPs have a
:22:03. > :22:07.free vote? Kate Hoey was adamant that it should be and it will
:22:08. > :22:11.happen. That is a matter for Jeremy Corbyn. Should it be? People have
:22:12. > :22:15.strong convictions and should be allowed to set out what their
:22:16. > :22:20.convictions are. I don't think it is likely to particularly split the
:22:21. > :22:24.Labour Party as things stand. I don't see the issue with that. There
:22:25. > :22:28.are big issues at stake about what is best for Britain and how to
:22:29. > :22:33.ensure that jobs can be created in the future and what is best for our
:22:34. > :22:38.security. These are serious issues. Over the last week we have had a lot
:22:39. > :22:45.of momentum on our side. I haven't received it and I don't know where
:22:46. > :22:49.it is,... Just a matter of time! Is that a promise or a warning? Let's
:22:50. > :22:53.look at the details. Newspaper reports as adjusting there are
:22:54. > :23:00.errors as I'm sure you know. The claim is that EU membership is worth
:23:01. > :23:04.?3000 to the average partnership are year -- the average household per
:23:05. > :23:08.year. They looked at a range of peer-reviewed studies setting out
:23:09. > :23:11.what the economic benefits are to the UK from being in the European
:23:12. > :23:16.Union compared to a scenario where we had not joined in the mid-70s and
:23:17. > :23:20.they divided that by the number of households. It's not a precise
:23:21. > :23:24.figure. It's an average of different studies but here is the point, you
:23:25. > :23:29.will hear a lot from the leave campaign is about the costs of
:23:30. > :23:34.membership, ?340 for the average household per year, and paired to
:23:35. > :23:40.that ?3000 figure. Even if that is a rough average we are talking eight
:23:41. > :23:46.or nine to one in terms of the ratio. The figures work both ways. A
:23:47. > :23:52.study done for Ukip said there was in the region of ?165 billion to be
:23:53. > :23:58.saved which you would dispute. Does it help anyone to have these very
:23:59. > :24:01.bold claims? But they are statistics? We could have a
:24:02. > :24:06.disagreement on statistics and it would turn off everybody. We are
:24:07. > :24:11.putting up a wall if we are to leave the European Union, we would still
:24:12. > :24:14.trade with Europe and a lot of those benefits in the CBI numbers would
:24:15. > :24:19.still exist because we would still be trading with European Union
:24:20. > :24:25.partners. What we would get by leaving Europe, the net contribution
:24:26. > :24:29.is rising year-on-year on year. We can repatriate the money and spend
:24:30. > :24:34.it on the NHS and having our own trade posts all over the world. What
:24:35. > :24:39.we don't know is what the trading relationship would look like, this
:24:40. > :24:44.week Daniel Hannan said he supports the Norway option whereas Dominic
:24:45. > :24:49.Cummings who runs the leave campaign says that they don't want the
:24:50. > :24:53.Norwegian model. Will we retain access to the single market and if
:24:54. > :24:56.so we would have to pay budget contributions and accept rules and
:24:57. > :25:01.regulations and free movement and all of those things would be true.
:25:02. > :25:06.It is absolutely true that there is risk in leaving but staying in as
:25:07. > :25:09.well. Everyone knows that since we joined the European economic
:25:10. > :25:13.community it has changed beyond recognition. If Britain stays, they
:25:14. > :25:20.will take as the granted for years. I don't think that's right. There
:25:21. > :25:25.will be the possibility of a refugee union and there will be consequences
:25:26. > :25:30.for staying in. It's a choice of two risks. The access to the European
:25:31. > :25:35.market, 500 million, would have to accept free movement of people. With
:25:36. > :25:40.Norway and Switzerland who are in the European economic area, who do
:25:41. > :25:43.have the access, they still have to accept the free movement of people
:25:44. > :25:50.as well. The rate of immigration into Norway and Switzerland is
:25:51. > :25:54.higher than in the UK. People need to be honest about what they want
:25:55. > :25:58.like Tim has been, free movement would stay and you would still
:25:59. > :26:03.accept rules and regulations. We will have to leave it there. The
:26:04. > :26:09.Pope is now coming out. He is on our side and we have the farmers! I
:26:10. > :26:15.don't think he has a vote. The Vatican is not in. He should join
:26:16. > :26:18.himself. You are very right. What are you guessing would be the
:26:19. > :26:24.referendum date? There is a growing view that it will be June 23 but it
:26:25. > :26:27.will be contingent upon an agreement will stop I would say so. -- an
:26:28. > :26:34.agreement. June 23, don't be away. Now chicken suits, a bright pink
:26:35. > :26:36.bus and a helicopter Not your head but a politician's
:26:37. > :26:43.head. Yesterday the Electoral Commission
:26:44. > :26:45.published figures revealing exactly how much and how the different
:26:46. > :26:48.political parties spent their money during last year's
:26:49. > :26:50.General Election campaign. So Jo, how much did
:26:51. > :26:59.Harriet Harman's bus cost? The Labour party spent nearly ?5,000
:27:00. > :27:05.on Harriet Harman's 'Pink Bus' I didn't know they were so
:27:06. > :27:10.expensive. But the infamous Ed Stone wasn't
:27:11. > :27:13.included in the party's finances. Labour say the eight foot six
:27:14. > :27:16.monument was left out due The Conservatives spent a total
:27:17. > :27:23.of ?15.5 million on the campaign, Their costs included ?487,000 on
:27:24. > :27:31.private jets to get senior Tories across the country, ?2.4 million
:27:32. > :27:41.for election guru Lynton Crosby and ?40,000 for a personal
:27:42. > :27:47.photographer to trail the PM. The SNP spent ?1.5 million
:27:48. > :27:49.on the General Election campaign - including more
:27:50. > :27:51.than ?35,000 on a helicopter And UKIP spent nearly ?3
:27:52. > :27:57.million including ?10,000 for copies The Lib Dems spent ?3.5 million
:27:58. > :28:04.and the Greens spent just So, which party got most bang
:28:05. > :28:10.for their buck? The figures suggest the Conservative
:28:11. > :28:13.campaign cost ?1.38 per vote, Labour spent ?1.29 but the winners
:28:14. > :28:30.were Ukip who spent 73p for each Thanks. If you do it by MPs then the
:28:31. > :28:35.Scottish Nationalists got the biggest bang for their buck.
:28:36. > :28:38.And with us now Labour's John McTernan, who has run numerous,
:28:39. > :28:41.dare I say it, not entirely successful campaigns
:28:42. > :28:51.Would it be fair or unfair to say that it didn't matter how Labour
:28:52. > :28:56.spend money in the last election, it wasn't going to win? I don't agree.
:28:57. > :29:01.If I had my time again in Scotland we would spend all of our money on
:29:02. > :29:06.social media. Labour were routed in Scotland by the SNP on social media
:29:07. > :29:12.and in the UK on social media by the Conservatives. You really think it
:29:13. > :29:19.is that important? Labour spend more in a single advert in the FT than
:29:20. > :29:24.social media in the entire campaign, not many swing voters are reading
:29:25. > :29:29.the FT. We have breaking news on the subject we are talking about, it has
:29:30. > :29:46.been revealed by the Labour Party that the Ed Stone cost ?8,000, more
:29:47. > :29:48.than the pink bus. It was the most ridiculous and disastrous political
:29:49. > :29:54.stunt in my lifetime but for the humour that it has given since then
:29:55. > :29:57.it is a bargain. I tell you, I have had any number of offers from people
:29:58. > :30:02.in the Australian Labour Party wishing to buy it for more than
:30:03. > :30:06.?8,000. It is in south-east London somewhere. They haven't broken it
:30:07. > :30:12.up? It is somewhere in a gigantic yard. That will set everyone off
:30:13. > :30:20.looking for it again if that is the case.
:30:21. > :30:28.?2.4 million played to Linton cross by. Sir Linton. We don't use titles
:30:29. > :30:36.on this programme. Tim. Sorry, Sir Andrew. We don't use titles. Should
:30:37. > :30:40.he have been given a hereditary peerage for stopping Ed Miliband
:30:41. > :30:44.from becoming Prime Minister. It was extraordinarily well-spent money.
:30:45. > :30:50.Linton cross by is a very successful campaigner. Agree with what a lot of
:30:51. > :30:52.John said, the wisest way in which the Conservative Party spent money
:30:53. > :30:57.was on social media. It is interesting in America at the moment
:30:58. > :31:02.watching Fox News and the Wall Street Journal trying to stop the
:31:03. > :31:06.Donald Trump phenomenon and not succeeding, American vote remembers
:31:07. > :31:10.getting an increasing proportion of their news from there and other
:31:11. > :31:13.people and getting a recommendation from a friend a more powerful
:31:14. > :31:17.reading it on a newspaper leader or television show. That's the future
:31:18. > :31:23.for political campaigning. Sometimes money doesn't matter that much. Even
:31:24. > :31:33.the Labour Party's own internal investigation suggested that that
:31:34. > :31:34.Salmond's pocket had quite a big effect on voters in England to get
:31:35. > :31:38.them to go back to the effect on voters in England to get
:31:39. > :31:43.and that cost ?950. That's a effect on voters in England to get
:31:44. > :31:50.tribute, I think, to Crosby. Not just him. The Saatchis. The texter,
:31:51. > :31:54.who is a brilliant pollster, he heard the concerns of people in the
:31:55. > :31:59.focus groups. Turned it into a image. You play back to people their
:32:00. > :32:05.fears and concerns, a great image like a great line goes around the
:32:06. > :32:08.world quickly. Basically, it is the inspiration of finding the right
:32:09. > :32:14.words and then the image that captures it. And sticking at T
:32:15. > :32:19.Labour had too many messages. Linton Crosby's one of his great advantages
:32:20. > :32:22.he brings to a campaign, he sits on people. Politicians want to say new
:32:23. > :32:24.things to people like you Andrew, they want to be interesting. A lot
:32:25. > :32:32.about winning being repettively dull. They were.
:32:33. > :32:37.Long-term economic plan. The 2000 election, American election, the
:32:38. > :32:38.George Bush's first election, I remember being on the campaign and
:32:39. > :32:43.we were all complaining that he was remember being on the campaign and
:32:44. > :32:47.giving the same speech again and again and Carol Rove same and said -
:32:48. > :32:51.he will continue to give this speech until everyone in the country has
:32:52. > :32:55.he will continue to give this speech memorised it. What is your major
:32:56. > :32:58.take away from Labour on what to learn? Labour had less money than
:32:59. > :33:03.the Conservatives, not huge but still a measurable amount less. What
:33:04. > :33:06.is the main take away for you You shouldn't fight the last war. In the
:33:07. > :33:11.last election the Labour Party basically spent all its money on
:33:12. > :33:14.troops on the ground, canvassing, believing that that was - that that
:33:15. > :33:17.would get across the swing voters. You have to put your money into
:33:18. > :33:23.really good polling and good communication, disciplined
:33:24. > :33:27.communication. To people where they are. And actually Tim is completely
:33:28. > :33:31.right. A recommendation from a friend is far better than a stranger
:33:32. > :33:35.knocking on your door. I think it is going back to that - how do we
:33:36. > :33:37.persuade other people to listen to us and then to change their minds?
:33:38. > :33:40.Thank you very much. Now, there are few jobs in
:33:41. > :33:46.Government that are as challenging But as Ministers try to settle
:33:47. > :33:49.the Junior Doctors dispute, what does it take to manage one
:33:50. > :33:53.of the biggest budgets in Whitehall and one of the largest
:33:54. > :33:54.workforces on Earth? As well as being held responsible
:33:55. > :33:57.for every health scare and routine Here he is with the second
:33:58. > :34:19.in our series of 'So you want to be Whitehall - the heart of Government.
:34:20. > :34:22.But could you balance the needs of patients with those of doctors,
:34:23. > :34:28.nurses and surgeons and still be responsible for one of the largest
:34:29. > :34:32.employers in the world? So, you want to be Health Secretary? You know you
:34:33. > :34:36.do some things at the start that you probably wouldn't do at the end and
:34:37. > :34:39.you definitely do some things at the end that you wouldn't do at the
:34:40. > :34:43.start. In the Conservative Party there are lots of people who know
:34:44. > :34:47.about defence and foreign affairs. Turned out there were relatively few
:34:48. > :34:52.who knew about health. The BMA had posters of me all over the country
:34:53. > :34:56.attacking me. When I went on holiday nurse has wanted posters for me at
:34:57. > :35:00.the airport asking people to search for the missing minister. The BMA
:35:01. > :35:06.had a great guy who was their lead negotiator. I called him Scargill
:35:07. > :35:10.with a sket scope. -- stethoscope. He was brilliant. I think I'm the
:35:11. > :35:15.first, the only person ever who went into the Department of Health and
:35:16. > :35:20.had a World Health pandemic declared within four days of arriving in the
:35:21. > :35:24.department. Jill Rutter is a former civil servant, now with the
:35:25. > :35:28.Institute for the Government who says whichever party is in charge,
:35:29. > :35:32.the issue of running the Department of health are much the same Being
:35:33. > :35:34.Secretary of State for Health, you have the giant budget, second
:35:35. > :35:39.biggest in Government. You have a small department but you are
:35:40. > :35:41.basically accountable for this really giant organisation called the
:35:42. > :35:47.National Health Service. But you don't run it. So that is the key
:35:48. > :35:52.relationship you have to get right. The second thing is that you are
:35:53. > :35:54.dealing with doctors and nurses, effectively some of the most
:35:55. > :35:58.effective trade unions in the country. They have very high
:35:59. > :36:02.credibility. You are a politician, you have very low credibility. How
:36:03. > :36:08.are you going to deal with them? Just expect all hell let loose. The
:36:09. > :36:11.public, the political class, the media get more worked up about
:36:12. > :36:17.health issues than anything else. Any Secretary of State finds that he
:36:18. > :36:21.or she is embroiled in constant battle with one group or another. It
:36:22. > :36:25.requires a great deal of reform and change to keep up with changing in
:36:26. > :36:29.demands and so on. Every time you want to change something, it is
:36:30. > :36:34.fought bitterly by some interest group or other and the people who
:36:35. > :36:40.are most resistant to change are the general public, who want a better
:36:41. > :36:43.health service but not varied in anyway from that which they are
:36:44. > :36:47.familiar. The fact is that process of change never seems to end. The
:36:48. > :36:49.National Health Service is like continually digging a hole under
:36:50. > :36:54.yourself and you have to continually move forward. It is one of the great
:36:55. > :36:57.challenges, that the success of the NHS, presents it with an
:36:58. > :37:03.ever-greater challenge. And there has always been a price to pay for
:37:04. > :37:07.the Health Secretary. Much so much so, one didn't much like the look of
:37:08. > :37:13.the job. I had done health in opposition. I had opposed Barbara
:37:14. > :37:18.cap castle. -- Barbara cap castle. We had a hairy time. She was having
:37:19. > :37:23.a hairy time. I was in Opposition. She was having a hairy time again
:37:24. > :37:29.with the medical establishment and BMA and had to be rescued almost to
:37:30. > :37:32.her complete horror by Lord Goodman, you saw then, this was a Labour
:37:33. > :37:37.Secretary of State, you saw then how difficult it was to make progress.
:37:38. > :37:41.One of the reasons why, in the health service there had been so
:37:42. > :37:47.many reform programmes, is because most of them, people have been hit
:37:48. > :37:52.hard and pulled back. And they have been half-baked. You know the table
:37:53. > :37:56.is the littered with half-baked reforms. The point was to try and
:37:57. > :38:01.accomplish the baking the whole thing.
:38:02. > :38:06.The opposition to most reforms has come most often over the
:38:07. > :38:10.controversial issue of who else, apart from the NSH can provide
:38:11. > :38:16.services My goodness, Dave Prentis and I used to have ding dong
:38:17. > :38:22.arguments with officials and special advisors sitting there wincing away
:38:23. > :38:27.as we went hammer and tongs. He didn't believe in alternative
:38:28. > :38:30.providers on the NHS. I did. We weren't going to reach agreement.
:38:31. > :38:35.You have a situation in our country, it'll always be like this. That 95%
:38:36. > :38:42.of care is provided by the public sector. It is neuro. If you can
:38:43. > :38:46.bring in private sector players who have expertise, knowledge and
:38:47. > :38:50.capacity and capability who can greet NHS patients for free,
:38:51. > :38:54.according to their needs, not on the be availability to pay, why wouldn't
:38:55. > :39:00.you do that. For Andrew Lansley, those who argued you shouldn't were
:39:01. > :39:04.NHS managers. They had been proposed when Alan Milburn brought it in and
:39:05. > :39:08.Patricia Hewitt legislated to it, and they continued and are probably
:39:09. > :39:12.opposed to it, to this day. But there are many politicians, and
:39:13. > :39:16.people, who sing the same tune, and they are not shy about telling you.
:39:17. > :39:20.If your colleagues in the House, other MPs, are concerned about
:39:21. > :39:25.health in their patch, they will get you. And it is no good saying to
:39:26. > :39:30.them - go and seat guy from NHS England -- see the guy. They expect
:39:31. > :39:33.you to sort it out. I remember a woman once coming to my surgery
:39:34. > :39:36.asking me it write it the Health Secretary on her behalf T I was the
:39:37. > :39:41.Health Secretary. She didn't realise. -- I said - yes, of course,
:39:42. > :39:44.I should be able to do that in the next couple of days. For one
:39:45. > :39:50.Secretary of State, the department was more than just treating the
:39:51. > :39:53.sick. Day 1, Department of Health, I said to the masked ranks of the
:39:54. > :39:57.senior people in the Department of Health - from now on physical
:39:58. > :40:00.activity is going to be the core business of this department and I
:40:01. > :40:06.think it is fair to say a tumbleweed went across the table. They were
:40:07. > :40:12.thinking - no, that's DCMS. I knew the Department of health culture was
:40:13. > :40:18.- oh, yes, we like buying pills and Sir rings and, you know, scalpels,
:40:19. > :40:22.and aprons but we don't invest in running machines or, you know,
:40:23. > :40:26.because that's the DH kind of culture, actually. It is - we'll
:40:27. > :40:29.pick up the pieces when you are ill. It truly isn't, to be fair, a
:40:30. > :40:34.Department of Health. You know, promoting health.
:40:35. > :40:38.Perhaps the largest reform of the NHS and most controversial was
:40:39. > :40:44.brought in in 2010 and many people said it had been sprung on the NHS,
:40:45. > :40:48.breaking a promise Somebody and I have not to this day yet, found
:40:49. > :40:53.somebody who will own up to t put into the coalition programme -- up
:40:54. > :40:56.to it, a reference to no more topdown reorganisation, on the basis
:40:57. > :41:01.that the Prime Minister said it in 2006, therefore it must be true in
:41:02. > :41:04.2010. Well, in between we had the manifesto. It wasn't in the
:41:05. > :41:10.Conservative manifesto. Those words didn't appear. They didn't apear in
:41:11. > :41:15.the Liberal Democrat manifesto. Somebody thought theyed should be in
:41:16. > :41:23.the coalition programme, notwithstanding the fact they were
:41:24. > :41:28.neither not in either manifesto. So that simple fact, regardless of me,
:41:29. > :41:31.was very damaging. As today's Health Secretary, junior doctors and
:41:32. > :41:35.patients know, right now, the job of providing hale in this country is
:41:36. > :41:40.not easy at the frontline. -- providing health. But it doesn't
:41:41. > :41:53.Well us is clear who used to be Whitehall.
:41:54. > :41:57.Well us is clear who used to be Chair of the royal College of GPs.
:41:58. > :42:02.It is such an enormous job. It seems impossible to get it right. It is an
:42:03. > :42:05.enormous job. I would be interested in whether those Secretary of
:42:06. > :42:09.States, that you had in that programme, got together and asked
:42:10. > :42:13.themselves why many of them got it so wrong. It is as if, with due
:42:14. > :42:17.respect, they get the portfolio of health, it is like a new train set,
:42:18. > :42:22.they take it out and play around with it and then what they then do,
:42:23. > :42:27.is use another analogy, they plant a plant, dig it up a few weeks' later
:42:28. > :42:30.to see how it is getting on. Maybe with such a complex organisation,
:42:31. > :42:36.such as the NHS, who deals with people who are sick and dying, maybe
:42:37. > :42:40.it beholds to them just to let evolutionary process take its place,
:42:41. > :42:42.rather than think we have this enormous revolution and everything
:42:43. > :42:48.is going to be all right. Do you admit, then, on the side of
:42:49. > :42:51.evolution, you and others, the BMA have sometimes be been a block and
:42:52. > :42:57.obstacle to reform and change? Well, with respect to myself, I think many
:42:58. > :43:01.would now say that I was absolutely right with my opposition and my
:43:02. > :43:10.vocal opposition that the Royal College of GPs had around the 2012
:43:11. > :43:18.NHS Act and also many of the other policies that the BMA have spoken
:43:19. > :43:21.publicly about, the private sprieders, and Ken Clarke's
:43:22. > :43:25.initiative that has brought in. So the BMA does not oppose just for
:43:26. > :43:28.opposition sake. It is there to represent doctors but it also
:43:29. > :43:32.represents patients and funnelledmentally
:43:33. > :43:36.represents patients and right. It is not really her or the
:43:37. > :43:40.group she represented at the time, or the BMA's fault there are
:43:41. > :43:44.politicians like Andrew Lansley, for example, introducing what they saw
:43:45. > :43:47.as an unnecessary and damaging topdown reorganisation. Yes, but if
:43:48. > :43:50.they really believe that, of course they should oppose a reform that
:43:51. > :43:56.they think is not in the interests of the health service. The overall
:43:57. > :44:00.thrust, I find a lot of the health reforms that have taken place under
:44:01. > :44:03.both Labour and Conservative confusing, but the general thrust
:44:04. > :44:07.has been to give more power to professionals. I think that's the
:44:08. > :44:11.general belief, the general aim of the Lansley reforms and it is what
:44:12. > :44:14.Alan Milburn did when he was Health Secretary. So it would be wrong to
:44:15. > :44:17.get the impression that politicians are always trying to tinker in the
:44:18. > :44:20.detail. They have done too many reorganisations, that's true.
:44:21. > :44:24.detail. They have done too many think the Lansley reforms were
:44:25. > :44:27.regrettable. I don't think they got at the heart of why
:44:28. > :44:31.regrettable. I don't think they got facing financial pressures but the
:44:32. > :44:35.thrust with foundation hospitals and more power for GP purchasing is
:44:36. > :44:38.pushing #130b89 towards the professionals we can trust. The
:44:39. > :44:43.problem there, I think it was Ken Clarke, I can't remember, who said -
:44:44. > :44:47.politicians pulled back sometimes for major change so it
:44:48. > :44:50.politicians pulled back sometimes as being tinkering at the edges
:44:51. > :44:53.because of the resistance from health unions, the college of GPs or
:44:54. > :45:00.If I ask you to pull down your house BMA.
:45:01. > :45:04.If I ask you to pull down your house every two years because it is in
:45:05. > :45:09.your best interests and rebuild it every two years you would think I
:45:10. > :45:13.was mad. What we need now, what we said is that we need stability and
:45:14. > :45:18.we need to make sure we make the NHS safe, going through its biggest
:45:19. > :45:22.crisis for decades at the moment and probably does need ironically some
:45:23. > :45:28.reorganisation at this stage. But I don't think we can blame the BMA, an
:45:29. > :45:34.organisation that has been there for 200 years nearly, supporting health
:45:35. > :45:39.care and since the onset of the NHS supporting the NHS. That is rather
:45:40. > :45:51.invidious. But on their side, the public do have this glorified view
:45:52. > :45:55.of doctors and nurses, less than 30 years ago. Alan Johnson described
:45:56. > :46:02.one commentator as Scargill with a stethoscope. Was that fair? I don't
:46:03. > :46:05.know specifically but there are examples now with the junior doctors
:46:06. > :46:10.dispute where some of the people involved in the BMA are also members
:46:11. > :46:16.of the Labour Party. That doesn't help the BMA's case when they allow
:46:17. > :46:21.people who have other agendas to pollute their message. That is so
:46:22. > :46:30.unfair, we have this McCarthy era where we are looking for Reds under
:46:31. > :46:36.our hospital beds. You can't deny that? I am an NHS activist and
:46:37. > :46:42.Labour speaks to protecting the NHS. As far as my political views, that
:46:43. > :46:46.is what I'm interested in, the NHS. Our junior doctors are some of the
:46:47. > :46:50.most obedient and hard-working individuals we have in society, far
:46:51. > :46:55.from being militants. We should be looking at them as those that want
:46:56. > :46:57.to care for us. Who was sure favourite Health Secretary? Steven
:46:58. > :47:05.Donnelly. -- Now, around this time next
:47:06. > :47:07.year the next President of the United States will take
:47:08. > :47:09.office. But between now and then,
:47:10. > :47:12.the country will embark on a long, complicated and unique democratic
:47:13. > :47:13.process to determine Right now, it's anyone's guess,
:47:14. > :47:19.since the field of candidates in both major parties
:47:20. > :47:39.is still very large. # Living in America. Donald Trump is
:47:40. > :47:40.calling for a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the
:47:41. > :47:53.United States. And I have decided I'm a candidate
:47:54. > :47:59.for president of the United States of America. I will be the youngest
:48:00. > :48:04.woman president in the history of the United States. When I am
:48:05. > :48:09.president we are going to win the war on Isis and if we capture any of
:48:10. > :48:14.them alive they are getting a one-way ticket to Guantanamo Bay,
:48:15. > :48:24.Cuba. I would not advocate putting a Muslim in charge of this nation.
:48:25. > :48:40.I do not like them, I do not like Greenock is an ham. -- green eggs
:48:41. > :48:47.and Ham. Our government belongs to all of us, not just a handful of
:48:48. > :48:58.billionaires. Are you ready for a commander-in-chief who will kick
:48:59. > :48:59.Isis's... That was American television news.
:49:00. > :49:01.And with us now from our Oxford Studio, William Barnard,
:49:02. > :49:04.who's the UK Chair of Deomcrats Abroad.
:49:05. > :49:18.You could argue that the Republicans have too many candidates in the
:49:19. > :49:22.primary election system, do the Democrats have too few? Just a
:49:23. > :49:26.correction, I am the former chair. Bernie Sanders is there on the
:49:27. > :49:31.Democratic side and although he is moving up he is seen as running
:49:32. > :49:37.behind. There is some energy there on the Republican side. It is true
:49:38. > :49:41.that the establishment track the candidate is running on that track
:49:42. > :49:49.are swinging the vote so cleanly and neatly that Trump is at the top of
:49:50. > :49:53.the heap. Are you surprised Bernie Sanders, the main challenger to
:49:54. > :49:59.Hillary Clinton, has had a second wind and could do well in Iowa and
:50:00. > :50:06.New Hampshire? Not really. The primary as we get closer to the
:50:07. > :50:10.date. They are unique, times when voters know they are not choosing
:50:11. > :50:14.the person to hold office but choosing people to send a message
:50:15. > :50:21.sometimes. There is a great deal of frustration and anxiety towards the
:50:22. > :50:24.national system in the United States, and Bernie Sanders is
:50:25. > :50:27.representing that. A number of Republicans are in fact supporting
:50:28. > :50:31.Donald Trump. I would make the point that most people in the UK don't
:50:32. > :50:41.realise that American citizens who live in the UK can vote on super
:50:42. > :50:46.Jews they. -- super Tuesday. I will come back to that in a minute. If
:50:47. > :50:50.the campaign was to be derailed for Hillary Clinton, perhaps because of
:50:51. > :50:55.the increasing scandal about e-mails, or something just comes to
:50:56. > :50:58.blow her out of the water in this way, what with the Democratic
:50:59. > :51:01.establishment do? I wish you may would not want to go into the
:51:02. > :51:07.election with Bernie Sanders as their candidate? The Democratic
:51:08. > :51:11.establishment so-called does not really run the party, it is the
:51:12. > :51:23.voters in the primary 's who control the delegation, and it will be
:51:24. > :51:28.decided in primarys to come. The primary after New Hampshire tends to
:51:29. > :51:34.favour the Clinton candidacy but we will have to wait and see. The GOP
:51:35. > :51:42.establishment is waiting to work out who is the most likely candidate to
:51:43. > :51:50.see off Donald Trump or even Mr Cruz. Who is it likely to be? Marco
:51:51. > :51:55.Rubio is a senator from Florida, he is Cuban. His campaign has not
:51:56. > :51:59.caught fire and in New Hampshire he needs to be the second-place
:52:00. > :52:04.candidate to Donald Trump if Trump wins in New Hampshire. You have
:52:05. > :52:08.other leading Republicans and moderates like John Casey from Ohio,
:52:09. > :52:14.even Jeb Bush is coming back a little bit. Not from much? Yes, a
:52:15. > :52:19.low base, but they are all around ten points. It is the establishment
:52:20. > :52:24.track that is giving Donald Trump the advantage that he has at the
:52:25. > :52:30.moment. Who would the Democrats least like to see as the Republican
:52:31. > :52:37.nominee? I suspect they think curiously Rubio or John Casey would
:52:38. > :52:40.be a serious contender. There is still the feeling that the American
:52:41. > :52:43.people as they enter the fall and get closer to the election and
:52:44. > :52:55.realise the gravity of their choice, they will go away from a bluster rat
:52:56. > :53:03.like Trump. Cruz is very ideological. He will be feared by a
:53:04. > :53:10.good number. In terms of difficulty of winning, Rubio, probably, but
:53:11. > :53:16.that is for the Republicans to decide. Finally, will we get to know
:53:17. > :53:19.when the Democrats in the UK, the registered Democrats get to vote on
:53:20. > :53:24.super Tuesday, will we get to know what the split on the vote was? You
:53:25. > :53:29.will indeed, there will be partial returns because the votes counted on
:53:30. > :53:32.March the 1st and fifth in London and elsewhere in Edinburgh and
:53:33. > :53:43.Cambridge and St Andrews, those will be cast by mail and e-mail will not
:53:44. > :53:45.be available but you will know the returns from the voting centre.
:53:46. > :53:59.Thank you for joining us. One of our cameramen went behind the
:54:00. > :54:03.scenes to see what the Metropolitan Police have up their sleeves, this
:54:04. > :54:09.fine body of 50-year-olds, the average age, are the first of the
:54:10. > :54:13.new traffic wardens to keep traffic flowing. They have finished their
:54:14. > :54:19.basic training. How can we prevent increasing traffic causing a jam?
:54:20. > :54:22.Parking metres in the City of Westminster have done something but
:54:23. > :54:27.there are still scores of streets being turned into an official car
:54:28. > :54:32.parks. You have to park somewhere. All right, but not in the wrong
:54:33. > :54:35.places say Scotland Yard. From now on traffic wardens will see the
:54:36. > :54:41.rules are observed as well as informing motorists where they can
:54:42. > :54:45.park and coming down on those who do so in forbidden spots. It will be
:54:46. > :54:48.done courteously, no slanging matches. Just say, what awful
:54:49. > :54:57.weather we're having, and fine him ?2. Take his number, out with the
:54:58. > :55:04.fine blog, and when the driver comes back he must send the money by post.
:55:05. > :55:07.Other offences carry a fine of ?2. You know that was a long time ago,
:55:08. > :55:08.?2! Yes, the humble traffic warden,
:55:09. > :55:10.who 55 years ago issued But that's not all they did,
:55:11. > :55:14.they were also supposed to help the public
:55:15. > :55:16.find parking places. Only 18 remain today,
:55:17. > :55:20.but yesterday the Home Secretary, Theresa May, announced
:55:21. > :55:22.she was phasing them out in favour Well, with us to lament
:55:23. > :55:35.their demise, the motoring Is this a sad day or something to
:55:36. > :55:38.celebrate? It's probably a sad day, I never thought I would say this but
:55:39. > :55:42.they had legitimacy and accountability because they were
:55:43. > :55:47.employed by the police and trained to keep traffic flowing. When it was
:55:48. > :55:54.decriminalised and handed to local councils in the 90s we have seen
:55:55. > :56:00.parking revenue go up and up. From 2013-14 it was up by 12%, ?700
:56:01. > :56:04.million, parking profit for councils. That means that consumers,
:56:05. > :56:09.and I will call them consumers because they are, have spent ?1
:56:10. > :56:14.billion a year on parking fines that is not spent on the local economy
:56:15. > :56:19.and that is the issue. We all detest parking regulations, they are too
:56:20. > :56:21.Draconian. The point is that this enforcement is taking money out of
:56:22. > :56:25.the economy. You had a more enforcement is taking money out of
:56:26. > :56:33.view because of their connection to the police rather than the council?
:56:34. > :56:37.It seems to be about profit. As it said, you have the park somewhere
:56:38. > :56:40.and you must do it legally. Council tax has been frozen year after year
:56:41. > :56:45.by most councils in the country and this is one of the ways like
:56:46. > :56:48.planning applications, they have found stealthy ways of getting money
:56:49. > :56:50.from people that they don't get from the usual place. It is stopping the
:56:51. > :56:55.high Street functioning and the usual place. It is stopping the
:56:56. > :56:59.people buying things in local shops and they shop online. Let's go back
:57:00. > :57:05.to the idea of the traffic warden as such. Did it make a difference that
:57:06. > :57:09.they were billed as courteous and friendly? Many people do find civil
:57:10. > :57:13.enforcement officers lacking a bit of charm. They had an ability to
:57:14. > :57:20.reason with you and they were approachable and more friendly
:57:21. > :57:22.because they were accountable. This lot and everybody seems to have the
:57:23. > :57:27.same lament, are less than courteous and open to reason. Have you ever
:57:28. > :57:33.had a fight with a traffic warden? I don't drive which is a terrible
:57:34. > :57:38.thing to admit here! You can't say anything in this discussion. I bet
:57:39. > :57:47.you have had fights. Arguments, not flights. I did not mean fisticuffs.
:57:48. > :57:51.I said to want outside my local school -- I said to want outside my
:57:52. > :57:56.local school... You have been antagonising this traffic warden,
:57:57. > :58:01.said the police. It is not a job I would like. You become the least
:58:02. > :58:06.popular person. These people are just doing their job. And we are
:58:07. > :58:11.just trying to go to work and school and to the doctors and hospital.
:58:12. > :58:15.Let's make it easier. Make them a little less implacable and a little
:58:16. > :58:27.less inflexible. Why are there 18 left? They are literally a hangover.
:58:28. > :58:29.I thought they had gone. So did I. It is always best to leave
:58:30. > :58:36.altercations to 1's driver! The one o'clock news is starting
:58:37. > :58:42.over on BBC One now. I'll be back at 11.45 this
:58:43. > :58:44.evening for This Week, where I'll be joined
:58:45. > :58:46.by Michael Portillo, Labour MP Liz Kendall,
:58:47. > :58:57.Yasmin Alibhai-Brown and American He is a director of this
:58:58. > :59:10.Oscar-nominated movie The Big Short. I will be back tomorrow.
:59:11. > :59:12.Celebrate a country 4,000 years in the making.