:00:36. > :00:39.Afternoon, folks. Welcome to the Daily Politics.
:00:40. > :00:42.Iain Duncan Smith lays into campaigners for Britain to stay
:00:43. > :00:46.in the EU, accusing the Remain camp of spin and smear tactics
:00:47. > :00:52.European leaders holds talks on the migrant crisis,
:00:53. > :00:55.after Donald Tusk - the President of the European Council -
:00:56. > :01:01.told potential migrants "do not come to Europe".
:01:02. > :01:03.Plaid Cymru hold their Spring Conference in Llanelli,
:01:04. > :01:07.with a claim that Wales is crying out for change after 17 years
:01:08. > :01:13.The Party's leader, Leanne Wood, joins us live.
:01:14. > :01:18.And the US Republican Party turns on itself as their former presidential
:01:19. > :01:23.candidate says Donald Trump is not fit to run the country - a claim
:01:24. > :01:28.Trump naturally dismissed in last night's TV debate.
:01:29. > :01:31.He referred to my hands - if they're small, something else
:01:32. > :01:47.I guarantee you there's no problem, I guarantee.
:01:48. > :01:53.Not up there with the Lincoln-Douglas debates(!)
:01:54. > :01:55.All that in the next hour, and with us for the whole
:01:56. > :01:58.of the programme today, Stephen Bush, from the New Statesman,
:01:59. > :01:59.and Carole Malone, who writes for the Sunday Mirror.
:02:00. > :02:04.Let's start with the latest intervention in the EU Referendum
:02:05. > :02:08.campaign from the Work and Pensions Secretary,
:02:09. > :02:11.Iain Duncan Smith, who is campaigning for the UK
:02:12. > :02:14.Writing in the Daily Mail this morning, Mr Duncan Smith doesn't
:02:15. > :02:18.hold any punches saying, "The Remain campaign's case seems
:02:19. > :02:20.almost wholly based on what they describe
:02:21. > :02:27.This case has in whole or in part become characterised by spin,
:02:28. > :02:32.Mr Duncan Smith also accused the Remain campaign -
:02:33. > :02:35.backed by most of his Cabinet colleagues -
:02:36. > :02:38.of making "desperate and unsubstantiated" claims.
:02:39. > :02:42.In the last hour, David Cameron has been making a speech
:02:43. > :02:45.at the Scottish Conservative's Spring Conference in Edinburgh.
:02:46. > :02:47.He didn't respond to Iain Duncan Smith directly,
:02:48. > :03:01.We will be safer in a reformed Europe. It is there that we have
:03:02. > :03:04.areas of co-operation, like the European Arrest Warrant through
:03:05. > :03:08.which we have extradited 7,000 foreign suspects. We need to keep
:03:09. > :03:15.this co-operation up, to keep our people safe.
:03:16. > :03:26.Is the nastiness, inter-Tory nastiness worse than you thought it
:03:27. > :03:30.would be? Oh yes. I can't believe Cameron's naivety in his thinking
:03:31. > :03:35.that the stuff he is spinning isn't going to be exposed. What he did
:03:36. > :03:39.yesterday with President Hollande was shameful, getting a foreign
:03:40. > :03:42.President to put propaganda out about what is going to happen. We
:03:43. > :03:49.are talking about taking the borders down. When Cameron and everyone else
:03:50. > :03:56.knows that's got nothing to do with the EU. So, I just - it is his
:03:57. > :04:01.naivety that I don't get. I think the British people are reacting very
:04:02. > :04:06.badly to it. They think he's treating them like this, stupid, and
:04:07. > :04:10.the more he says this stuff and the more he is exposed as rubbish, it
:04:11. > :04:16.puts people one step nearer... Do you think he is driving them against
:04:17. > :04:22.what he wants to happen? People who are undecided are walking towards
:04:23. > :04:27.the door! Isn't one of the weaknesses of the Prime Minister's
:04:28. > :04:32.position, he paints the picture of apocalypse now if we were to leave.
:04:33. > :04:35.Why would you have ever said, if I can't get some minor changes on
:04:36. > :04:40.welfare, I may well decide we are going to leave. It is not credible?
:04:41. > :04:43.I don't know. We know David Cameron never wanted to leave and he was
:04:44. > :04:48.forced into the position he is in now. But also the Prime Minister has
:04:49. > :04:51.succeeded in saying one thing about the deficit and saying a different
:04:52. > :04:56.thing five years later at the election. People trust Cameron. I
:04:57. > :05:02.don't think the complexity of that decision is a problem. You think -
:05:03. > :05:09.the Tory private polling suggests that Mr Cameron has some weight in
:05:10. > :05:15.this debate and more than with just Conservative voters? David Cameron
:05:16. > :05:19.is a hugely popular figure and he is a trusted figure. People think he
:05:20. > :05:31.has the right idea for the country. There is this demographic, the Stay
:05:32. > :05:43.In campaign call it The Leave it to Dave voters. It would what? The
:05:44. > :05:48.Common Agricultural Policy would put ?200 billion into the agriculture
:05:49. > :05:56.sector... ?200 billion? Sorry, ?20 billion. If we were to vote to
:05:57. > :06:00.leave, we would instigate a system of British farm subsidies like we
:06:01. > :06:04.had before we joined? You are immediately asked where would it
:06:05. > :06:09.come from? It would come from the money we send to Brussels. That is
:06:10. > :06:14.where Cameron wants the argument to be. That is a terrain which is only
:06:15. > :06:19.disastrous for Leave. There is a danger for Mr Cameron if it
:06:20. > :06:24.continues in this level of unpleasantness within the
:06:25. > :06:28.Conservative Party, that even if he wins on June 23rd, there will be a
:06:29. > :06:32.growing mood to say, right, it is time for you to step down? When he
:06:33. > :06:39.came back from Brussels with the deal, everyone thought that if we
:06:40. > :06:42.did vote to go, Cameron would be in charge. You say people trust him.
:06:43. > :06:47.They did then. I don't think they trust him now. With everything he
:06:48. > :06:52.says, the spin and it's exposed as being wrong, I think people distrust
:06:53. > :07:01.him. I think now whether we leave or whether we stay, he is totally
:07:02. > :07:09.discredited. I will fact-check your ?20 billion figure. I multiply that
:07:10. > :07:14.by four or five, it is ?10 billion. But we shall see. That was a mental
:07:15. > :07:16.fact-check there. I have to do my homework instead.
:07:17. > :07:19.After a major overhaul of its tax structure,
:07:20. > :07:23.Facebook is set to pay millions of pounds more in tax in the UK.
:07:24. > :07:28.But how much corporation tax did it pay in 2014?
:07:29. > :07:36.Was it a) ?4,000 b) ?40,000, c) ?4 million, or d) ?40 million?
:07:37. > :07:38.At the end of the show, Stephen and Carole will give us
:07:39. > :07:48.They have been studying the tax returns through the night(!)
:07:49. > :07:49.Now, it's been one of the least violent weeks in Syria
:07:50. > :07:51.since the civil war began there in 2011, but that
:07:52. > :07:53.Hundreds of thousands of that country's citizens,
:07:54. > :07:56.along with migrants from across North Africa
:07:57. > :08:00.and the Middle East, continue to make their way to Europe.
:08:01. > :08:03.Last Saturday a "cessation of hostilities" was agreed
:08:04. > :08:06.for Syria, brokered by the United States and Russia.
:08:07. > :08:11.It's more formal than a truce but falls short of a full ceasefire.
:08:12. > :08:13.Neither so-called Islamic State or the al-Nusra Front,
:08:14. > :08:17.an al-Qaeda-linked group, are part of the agreement,
:08:18. > :08:19.so military manoeuvres in the country have continued.
:08:20. > :08:22.The UK and France have complained that the Syrian government,
:08:23. > :08:25.backed by the Russians, has bombed areas where alleged
:08:26. > :08:29.moderate forces are intermingled with jihadist fighters.
:08:30. > :08:32.Today the leaders of Germany, the UK, and France will take part
:08:33. > :08:35.in a conference call with Vladimir Putin to discuss
:08:36. > :08:40.This week the senior Nato commander in Europe claimed
:08:41. > :08:43.the Russian President was "weaponising" the migration
:08:44. > :08:51.More than 130,000 migrants from Africa and the Middle East have
:08:52. > :09:00.That's after more than 1.2 million made the journey last year.
:09:01. > :09:03.A serious flashpoint at the moment is the Greece-Macedonian border,
:09:04. > :09:07.where thousands of migrants have massed on the Greek side seeking
:09:08. > :09:16.Today European Council President Donald Tusk will meet
:09:17. > :09:19.Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to try to agree a joint
:09:20. > :09:26.It's been mooted that a deal would involve non-Syrian migrants
:09:27. > :09:33.who reach the Greek islands being sent to Turkey.
:09:34. > :09:37.Quite a lot of them have come from there in the first place.
:09:38. > :09:38.We can talk now to our correspondent, Danny Savage,
:09:39. > :09:42.who is on the border between Greece and Macedonia.
:09:43. > :09:54.What's happening where you are? Andrew, I estimate there is probably
:09:55. > :09:58.10,500 people here if not more. We are on the Greek side of the border
:09:59. > :10:03.and people have been trickling through over the last few days. I
:10:04. > :10:07.think only about 150 people went through the border gate last night
:10:08. > :10:12.into Macedonia and upwards on the migrant trail. More than that are
:10:13. > :10:17.arriving by the hour, so it is really not easing the situation at
:10:18. > :10:21.this camp, where the infrastructure is creaking at the sides, this was a
:10:22. > :10:27.place built for 1,500 people, loads more than that here now. The queues
:10:28. > :10:31.you can see behind me are more new arrivals trying to register and get
:10:32. > :10:35.a place in that never-ending queue, and also the queue for food here,
:10:36. > :10:43.too, but you have to wait four hours in line to get some grub. The
:10:44. > :10:48.pictures behind you look quite horrendous. I take it from what you
:10:49. > :10:51.say that if only a trickle are being allowed through into Macedonia, and
:10:52. > :10:55.yet a lot more are coming in from Turkey, through the islands and up
:10:56. > :11:00.the Greek mainland, that the scenes behind you can only get worse? Yeah
:11:01. > :11:06.because the way it is working at the moment is that people don't want to
:11:07. > :11:10.be in any other transit migrant camp in Greece because they feel then
:11:11. > :11:14.they are not in the queue for moving on towards where they want to get
:11:15. > :11:20.to, which is Germany for most of them. They all want to get here. If
:11:21. > :11:23.they are in Athens or elsewhere in northern Greece, they think that
:11:24. > :11:28.they are not going to get over the border at all. There is all these
:11:29. > :11:31.unsubstantiated rumours, among the migrants, that the borders are going
:11:32. > :11:35.to close completely at some point, so the desperation to get across is
:11:36. > :11:39.very real. And the conditions here therefore are very poor because
:11:40. > :11:43.people are pitching up, they are getting a tent sometimes, they are
:11:44. > :11:46.then sleeping here in the open, it rained last night, loads of them
:11:47. > :11:50.have moved on to the railway lines here to camp with great big freight
:11:51. > :11:53.trains going through because the ground is drier, but the people are
:11:54. > :11:56.here because they want to be near the front of the queue and if they
:11:57. > :12:00.are elsewhere, they don't feel as though they are in that queue. Am I
:12:01. > :12:04.right in thinking this must be another, if you have this huge
:12:05. > :12:09.backlog happening right behind you now, more on their way, others may
:12:10. > :12:12.decide when they hit Greece, I'm not going to go, I will stay in the
:12:13. > :12:16.south until I see what is going to happen. This is a potential huge
:12:17. > :12:20.crisis for the Greek government, for Greece, a country that is not
:12:21. > :12:32.exactly in a great position to handle this? No, we know the Greeks
:12:33. > :12:41.aren't well off at an international level. We have heard from the UN in
:12:42. > :12:45.the last few days that this is an impending humanitarian crisis. It
:12:46. > :12:49.depends who you talk to here. MSF and Save the Children would say we
:12:50. > :12:55.are already in a humanitarian crisis. The overriding sounds and
:12:56. > :13:00.smells of this site - the sound that I always hear walking around this
:13:01. > :13:05.campsite - people coughing, kids crying. It is like a camping holiday
:13:06. > :13:09.from hell here for most of these people. Some of them stay well, but
:13:10. > :13:14.particularly the young ones who don't have a good immune system,
:13:15. > :13:18.they are getting ill. Children, particularly, and women make up 60%
:13:19. > :13:21.of the people here. It is a desperate situation for them. If
:13:22. > :13:25.there is some glimmer of hope to move on, it makes them feel better.
:13:26. > :13:30.That hope does seem to be ebbing away. This is a camp where hope is
:13:31. > :13:36.fading for lots of people. Thank you for joining us. Take care. Danny
:13:37. > :13:38.Savage on the Macedonian-Greek border, on the Greek side of the
:13:39. > :13:39.border there. Of course the main reason
:13:40. > :13:41.for the huge numbers of migrants arriving on the EU's southern
:13:42. > :13:43.borders is the ongoing conflict Last week world powers agreed
:13:44. > :13:48.a ceasefire in the Syrian civil war, but coalition and Russian airstrikes
:13:49. > :13:52.against Islamic State in Syria Our defence correspondent,
:13:53. > :14:05.Jonathan Beale, is in Baghdad Bring us up to speed on the state of
:14:06. > :14:18.the Iraqi government's push-back now against Islamic State. We went first
:14:19. > :14:21.this week to see British troops among other coalition forces
:14:22. > :14:25.training the Iraqi army. There is no doubt about it, they are more
:14:26. > :14:29.confident because they are getting that support from air strikes above
:14:30. > :14:35.them and also getting equipment. For example the British government has
:14:36. > :14:40.given Iraqi army mine detectors used in Afghanistan and passing on
:14:41. > :14:44.British soldiers's experience from Northern Ireland and Afghanistan.
:14:45. > :14:51.They seemed upbeat. They now talking about an offensive on Mosul, which
:14:52. > :14:57.is the Iraq headquarters for Islamic State, whether caliphate has been
:14:58. > :15:02.claimed. The person leading this organisation claimed it. The
:15:03. > :15:07.coalition say they have trained 18,000 Iraqi army recruits. They
:15:08. > :15:13.need a force of around two and 5000. We've also heard that US special
:15:14. > :15:18.forces have moved in, the. Force one week ago snatched a high value
:15:19. > :15:26.target, presumably to get intelligence of what's going on in
:15:27. > :15:31.city. -- the Delta Force one. We went to Samarra where they claim to
:15:32. > :15:35.have cleared the ground, much of it is desert, and Islamic State is
:15:36. > :15:39.still launching offensives. For example when we arrived here they
:15:40. > :15:46.are still in Fallujah come in Anbar province, and they launched an
:15:47. > :15:57.offensive, people will remember ten of IB Graber because of the US
:15:58. > :16:01.prisoner abuse but the town of Abu Ghraib. They cannot keep casualties
:16:02. > :16:07.but the cause chaos. Islamic State are laying mines everywhere. We saw
:16:08. > :16:10.them in the field yesterday where we were with the Iraqi army, it killed
:16:11. > :16:17.a lot of livestock, not people coming and they are using those
:16:18. > :16:20.devices and truck bombs, we saw the effect of one hour strike on truck
:16:21. > :16:24.bombers before they could strike. Yet when it comes to the urban
:16:25. > :16:29.fighting places like Mosul and Fallujah it will be much harder than
:16:30. > :16:33.taking ground in the desert. Jonathan, when they do take ground
:16:34. > :16:38.back from Islamic State, are they able to hold it and will things then
:16:39. > :16:44.quieten down, or is that the risk that these are largely Shia forces
:16:45. > :16:50.coming into Sunni territory, will we then be in a tense stand-off between
:16:51. > :16:55.the Shia and Sunni forces? There is no doubt that the Shi'ite militia
:16:56. > :17:01.are paying a big role in the clearing up operation, rusher the
:17:02. > :17:08.Shia. For example, the Shia population in the city, protesting
:17:09. > :17:14.about government corruption, led by October side, who has popped up
:17:15. > :17:18.again, that sort of division hasn't gone away and is still a problem.
:17:19. > :17:24.The bigger problem for what is happening on the ground, and we saw
:17:25. > :17:27.this yesterday is, when they take on Islamic State often they just
:17:28. > :17:31.disappear in these open ground areas. They melt into the
:17:32. > :17:34.background. They were holding a lot of young man, trying to question
:17:35. > :17:40.them, their links with Islamic State but it is easy for them to go back
:17:41. > :17:44.for example to places like Fallujah, their strongholds, and to dig in, to
:17:45. > :17:49.make sure that they will carry on the fight. I think it is very hard
:17:50. > :17:54.to say with confidence that you have defeated Islamic State in an area
:17:55. > :17:59.when a lot of them have just fled and yes, there are a few truck
:18:00. > :18:03.bombers, suicide bombers, who have lost their lives but that was not
:18:04. > :18:06.much evidence of taking prisoners and holding them. Jonathan, in
:18:07. > :18:09.Baghdad, thank you. And joining us now in the studio
:18:10. > :18:20.is the foreign affairs analyst, Welcome back to the programme. Let
:18:21. > :18:23.me come back to this business of the zillion ceasefire, although
:18:24. > :18:29.cessation of hostilities is a better term. What is Vladimir Putin's aim,
:18:30. > :18:34.what is he up to? He's already achieved some of his aims, he has
:18:35. > :18:38.told the world that he doesn't abandon his allies, he has made sure
:18:39. > :18:44.that the power in Syria will keep his support, it is the only Russian
:18:45. > :18:50.warm water port, he's got rusher into the Middle East 30 years after
:18:51. > :18:55.its influence waned there, so if you leave morality out of it he is doing
:18:56. > :19:00.quite well and has put himself in front and centre of any of the
:19:01. > :19:03.negotiations in the last bit of the jigsaw. Today David Cameron will be
:19:04. > :19:07.on the phone to him and so will Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande,
:19:08. > :19:12.and they will say, come on, you have to help us solve this war because of
:19:13. > :19:15.conditions in the refugees camp. He will say that he's happy to help,
:19:16. > :19:20.now what about the sanctions that you have on Ukraine and Russia? It
:19:21. > :19:24.will come full circle. He knows there is a perfect storm gathering,
:19:25. > :19:32.use part of the storm and he's one of the very few people able to blow
:19:33. > :19:38.away the clouds. One of the fallouts of this is the massive European
:19:39. > :19:43.crisis. Of course not all the migrants come from Syria, get a fair
:19:44. > :19:47.chunk are. Some are coming from Iraq and Afghanistan as well. Does the
:19:48. > :19:52.cessation of hostilities helped to reduce the flow, or should we be
:19:53. > :19:57.planning for a continued flow of migrants from the war zone areas for
:19:58. > :20:03.the foreseeable future? Absolutely the latter. My mathematics puts
:20:04. > :20:07.another half a million having left Turkey, Iraq, and Syria, and
:20:08. > :20:12.probably having reached Europe, my mathematics says half a million
:20:13. > :20:16.before we vote in the referendum. They may not be in the UK but they
:20:17. > :20:22.will be on our TV screens that will affect the vote. What you saw on the
:20:23. > :20:26.screen in Macedonia will be tripled, quadrupled. Because the war in Syria
:20:27. > :20:30.will not stop. It's simply initiative for the time being. I'm
:20:31. > :20:34.glad you brought in Jonathan from Iraq because this is part of the
:20:35. > :20:40.perfect storm, especially Mosul. I would add to that Afghanistan,
:20:41. > :20:44.Eritrea, still a basket case because a sizeable proportion of the people
:20:45. > :20:50.coming from Eritrea. Some of those in the Calais camp from there. I
:20:51. > :20:54.would add to the Brexit to that, the fact that Greece is in such
:20:55. > :21:00.financial turmoil, the whole thing is coming together. This spring,
:21:01. > :21:05.130,000 people have already made it here, mostly to Greece. What the
:21:06. > :21:10.Macedonians have done, this is why there is no European unity, and
:21:11. > :21:14.hopefully we can get onto Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande, last
:21:15. > :21:17.week the Austrians got together with seven Balkan countries completely
:21:18. > :21:23.separately from the EU and did their own eight nation deal. What you are
:21:24. > :21:26.seeing in Macedonia, this bottleneck growing and it will grow bigger and
:21:27. > :21:29.bigger, it's because the eight countries said they would
:21:30. > :21:34.fingerprint everyone coming through. That takes time. And they will check
:21:35. > :21:39.the documents, and check the people. They do that because then they know
:21:40. > :21:45.that only 8100 people every day get through. If 1000 every day are
:21:46. > :21:48.coming, and 80 a day going through, you do the maths. Angela Merkel has
:21:49. > :21:54.one plan which has already been rejected, she's coming back to it
:21:55. > :21:58.next week, plan a, that is we need to parcel them out, you take
:21:59. > :22:02.100,000... And yet those eight countries of rejected it, so have
:22:03. > :22:09.hungry, the Scandinavians and Britain, and Poland. And is going to
:22:10. > :22:13.be a referendum. We know the result. They will take 2000 because they
:22:14. > :22:18.will lose the referendum if they say we don't want it. Angela Merkel has
:22:19. > :22:22.plan a and that has been rejected. I understand that she is coming back
:22:23. > :22:27.to it next week having talked to the Turkish people, which is why Donald
:22:28. > :22:31.Tusk is in Ankara today, and they are going to offer Turkey a lot of
:22:32. > :22:35.money and Turkey will want a lot of things back and at the moment I
:22:36. > :22:38.don't think you can get that agreement between Turkey and EU
:22:39. > :22:43.which is accelerated access into the European Union, visas for all
:22:44. > :22:46.Turkish workers wanting to come here, that's 8 million people.
:22:47. > :22:52.Imagine what that will do to the Brexit vote. So it keeps coming
:22:53. > :23:00.round in a circle. I do not think the EU can offer Turkey what it once
:23:01. > :23:06.and I don't think Turkey will give the EU what it wants. At the
:23:07. > :23:10.instigation of Angela Merkel, Germany took in 2 million migrants
:23:11. > :23:16.last year. Is it credible that she will be able to convince Germany to
:23:17. > :23:20.take on another million this year? This is where the regional elections
:23:21. > :23:26.this month in Germany are important. How much will she be damaged? She
:23:27. > :23:30.has been damaged. It's funny, there's reality and this perception
:23:31. > :23:34.and emotion and there's politics. All different things. Angela Merkel
:23:35. > :23:37.knows the publishing of Germany is declining and that they need 1
:23:38. > :23:42.million people yet the German people wanted in an orderly fashion of
:23:43. > :23:45.their choice. So they do need more people to come but the German
:23:46. > :23:50.electorate don't want that, and consequently they will go to the
:23:51. > :23:57.right, there were 900 attacks on asylum seekers in Germany last year.
:23:58. > :24:01.We think it is bad here? Two state elections this month. What if all
:24:02. > :24:04.the politicians across the European Union see that all the electorate is
:24:05. > :24:08.turning to the right, which is mostly happening? They will turn to
:24:09. > :24:11.the right and they want open borders, they will put up fences
:24:12. > :24:15.which will do nothing for the bottleneck. So the key is to go back
:24:16. > :24:22.to Syria and Iraq and solve those wars and good luck with that! When
:24:23. > :24:29.you listen to Tim describe what is the likely backdrop to the
:24:30. > :24:36.referendum, between now and June 23, if you want to vote to remain, you
:24:37. > :24:43.could not wish for a worse backdrop. And the biggest threat to the Remain
:24:44. > :24:46.side is, a body of people washing up on beaches, Europe losing control of
:24:47. > :24:51.its borders. That is far more important to whether Britain leaves
:24:52. > :24:55.all stays in the EU than the grumbling from the Cabinet
:24:56. > :24:59.ministers. It is the pictures of bodies on beaches. It is whether or
:25:00. > :25:03.not Europe can defend its periphery and it looks, troublingly, at the
:25:04. > :25:08.moment, as if it can't. And the other thing is that they mostly men
:25:09. > :25:11.because the women and children stay behind because of the dangers of
:25:12. > :25:15.crossing servers and a graphic explosion waiting to happen in parts
:25:16. > :25:20.of Europe, like China and the consequences of the child policy.
:25:21. > :25:24.One more example that I forgot, rioting. I don't see why do you want
:25:25. > :25:30.to see rioting in these camps down south, a thousand you can handle,
:25:31. > :25:36.why wouldn't people right? And that is what will be on TV screens. And
:25:37. > :25:42.that will have an effect. Sorry, Carole. It is a grim picture. I
:25:43. > :25:46.think you'd be hard pushed, anyone who was dithering about what to do,
:25:47. > :25:51.why would they be convinced to want to stay in Europe if we see fences
:25:52. > :25:56.erected in countries that until now have espoused free movement? We have
:25:57. > :26:01.seen what free movement does. It could be a problem for us whether we
:26:02. > :26:05.are in or out, unless you want to build a fortress Europe, we will
:26:06. > :26:10.still be in the European continent, 20 miles away from France. Although
:26:11. > :26:15.the euro is shot, why would we want to be apart of a group where the
:26:16. > :26:24.currency is shot, where unemployment is at an all-time high, and we are
:26:25. > :26:28.doing pretty well,... You raise an interesting point related to the
:26:29. > :26:31.migrant crisis. Because many of these young men, now increasingly
:26:32. > :26:38.young man, they are coming to Europe and jobs. But they are also coming
:26:39. > :26:42.to the continent to look for jobs in the one continent in the Western
:26:43. > :26:48.world which is not capable of providing jobs for the young people
:26:49. > :26:52.already here. That has to be a toxic situation. That's what I mean, the
:26:53. > :26:58.perfect storm. It's possible Europe could have got over the 2008 crash.
:26:59. > :27:02.It is partially recovering economically, yet that damaged it so
:27:03. > :27:06.much. Just as it was maybe getting out of that crashed we've now
:27:07. > :27:10.introduced this terrible war in the middle east which has placed massive
:27:11. > :27:14.pressures, when people are facing pressure, and again I go back to
:27:15. > :27:17.emotion. I think often people in politics only look at facts and
:27:18. > :27:22.figures and they forget peoples emotions. People will not always had
:27:23. > :27:26.exactly on their wallets which is the accepted wisdom and exactly on
:27:27. > :27:29.facts and figures, they will vote on emotion. And when we see what is
:27:30. > :27:34.happening on our borders, they will be those people will want to open
:27:35. > :27:40.everything up and bring people in but I think that will simply result
:27:41. > :27:43.a real turn to the right in Europe, and that means the middle will tack
:27:44. > :27:49.to the right, and the very freedoms which make you want to welcome
:27:50. > :27:53.people in will then be damaged. I really want a solution, Andrew, and
:27:54. > :27:58.I'm waiting for you to tell me what it is! I fear you may have a long
:27:59. > :28:01.wait. The real test of the movement to the right will be the French
:28:02. > :28:04.presidential elections in May, I hope we will get to talk to you
:28:05. > :28:06.about that then. Tim Marshall, thank you.
:28:07. > :28:09.It's been another week of heavy campaigning in the
:28:10. > :28:12.Here at the Daily Politics we like to be helpful,
:28:13. > :28:14.so if you haven't been following every twist and turn,
:28:15. > :28:17.here's a reminder of some of the big campaign moments
:28:18. > :28:22.Of course it would be possible to start from scratch,
:28:23. > :28:26.not to use one of the existing established models to negotiate
:28:27. > :28:30.a set of trade agreements from scratch, but all the evidence
:28:31. > :28:34.shows that that will take a very long time, many years.
:28:35. > :28:37.What the Government is getting wrong in this dossier is to argue
:28:38. > :28:42.that we have to do exactly the same as someone else.
:28:43. > :28:45.The risk to the In campaign is if it's a negative,
:28:46. > :28:48.miserable scaremongering campaign, then they will turn people off
:28:49. > :28:53.and that is the last thing that is needed given how narrowly
:28:54. > :28:55.balanced the opinion polls look to be across the UK.
:28:56. > :28:59.We can sit here all afternoon debating the specifics
:29:00. > :29:01.of a document, or documents, and I respect your
:29:02. > :29:06.At the end of the day, I will stick by your number
:29:07. > :29:08.and you will sit here challenging my integrity.
:29:09. > :29:13.Look, that was agreed by an international treaty
:29:14. > :29:15.between Britain and France a few years ago.
:29:16. > :29:20.There is no reason at all why that should be.
:29:21. > :29:23.You have to wonder about the timing of this particular venture.
:29:24. > :29:27.It is all part of a project to try and scare people into
:29:28. > :29:30.You have to ask Boris what Boris is doing.
:29:31. > :29:37.We have to make sure these arguments take place on the issues
:29:38. > :29:42.and the facts and the arguments and not on the basis of individuals.
:29:43. > :29:45.In the end, I've got one vote, Boris has one vote.
:29:46. > :29:53.And we're joined now from Edinburgh by former Defence Secretary
:29:54. > :29:57.and pro-Leave campaigner Liam Fox, and from Dundee by the SNP's Europe
:29:58. > :30:00.spokesman Stephen Gethins, who's campaigning for the UK
:30:01. > :30:14.Welcome both. Liam Fox, you can't be surprised that Remain is using
:30:15. > :30:18.project fear because that is what your side of the Scottish Referendum
:30:19. > :30:23.campaign used and you won, so why wouldn't you repeat a winning
:30:24. > :30:27.formula? Everyone knows that the negative part of campaigning is
:30:28. > :30:31.always used because it is effective. There is also, in the debate about
:30:32. > :30:36.the Scottish Referendum, there was also a case put for the Union, not
:30:37. > :30:40.least the fact that we had been a country that had effectively
:30:41. > :30:45.operated as a single unit for hundreds of years, our institutions
:30:46. > :30:50.had grown together, our families had moved together, to the extent you
:30:51. > :30:53.couldn't find anyone who didn't have family somewhere else across the
:30:54. > :30:59.United Kingdom. There was a positive case put that. I'm hoping the Remain
:31:00. > :31:04.campaign will want to put the case for project Europe, which diminishes
:31:05. > :31:09.the ability of nation states to retain their identity. After all,
:31:10. > :31:15.that is what ever-closer Union is all about. I was looking back at
:31:16. > :31:19.what you said during the Referendum campaign, you would lose the
:31:20. > :31:23.military bases, shipbuilding would be finished, the security of Denmark
:31:24. > :31:31.and Norway would be threatened by Scottish independence. That is
:31:32. > :31:35.reminiscent of that playbook the Prime Minister has learned and is
:31:36. > :31:40.now using against you? Some of the issues you mention, for example if
:31:41. > :31:44.the SNP had been outside NATO, that would have put at risk those bases
:31:45. > :31:48.being there, that would have had an effect on the security of other
:31:49. > :31:54.parts of Europe, the countries there accepted that as well. Maybe that is
:31:55. > :31:58.what the Prime Minister is telling us, and maybe that is accurate? It
:31:59. > :32:02.is based upon what we knew about policies laid out by an independent
:32:03. > :32:05.Government, there was a reasonable assessment on the basis of that.
:32:06. > :32:10.What I'm not clear about is when we get the thing we had yesterday about
:32:11. > :32:13.Calais, which was a re-release of a previous flop when the French
:32:14. > :32:16.government had already said we are not going to do that, we are not
:32:17. > :32:20.going to break that. If you are going to have a campaign based upon
:32:21. > :32:25.the negative elements of campaigning, they have to be
:32:26. > :32:31.credible. Stephen Gethins, do you see, or do you feel reminiscent this
:32:32. > :32:35.is project fear mark two? There is a lot, and as one of the scaremongers
:32:36. > :32:39.in chief, Liam will be well aware of the arguments that were deployed and
:32:40. > :32:44.you have gone through them. One thing that was interesting from your
:32:45. > :32:48.package there was the interview from Nicola Sturgeon, from Monday. That
:32:49. > :32:52.is when she set out a positive case about what Europe can do in terms of
:32:53. > :32:56.the economy, the environment, the social policies. I think both sides
:32:57. > :33:04.have got to learn the lessons that the project fear that was run in the
:33:05. > :33:09.independence referendum did nobody any favours. You said the UK could
:33:10. > :33:17.thrive outside the EU, the UK could thrive... Let me give you the quote.
:33:18. > :33:20.The UK can thrive as an independent country outside the EU. You say on
:33:21. > :33:25.balance you still think we should stay in, but to say we could thrive
:33:26. > :33:30.is not exactly what the Prime Minister and your side of the
:33:31. > :33:35.argument has been giving us? No. I think the point that I'm trying to
:33:36. > :33:40.make there, Andrew - and I am trying to start from this basis - I hope -
:33:41. > :33:46.we won't agree on much but maybe Liam will agree with me on this. The
:33:47. > :33:49.UK could be successful outside the European Union just as Scotland
:33:50. > :33:53.could be successful as an independent member state. Let's have
:33:54. > :33:57.a debate about whether or not it is better for the UK to remain inside
:33:58. > :34:00.the European Union and on balance, given the information and all the
:34:01. > :34:04.facts that we have got, I think it is better that we stay as part of
:34:05. > :34:07.the European Union. This is about having an honest debate and not
:34:08. > :34:11.getting people switched off by the scaremongering that you saw from
:34:12. > :34:15.Liam Fox and his colleagues, and some of the Remain campaign have
:34:16. > :34:21.been deploying some of these tactics as well. OK. It was an appeal to
:34:22. > :34:24.start off from that basis. Alright. It hasn't permeated through to
:34:25. > :34:28.chunks of your campaign yet. It is early days. Liam Fox, what do you
:34:29. > :34:32.say to that? I would like to see the whole of the debate on our
:34:33. > :34:37.membership of the European Union go back to first principles. For me,
:34:38. > :34:40.it's an argument about two things. First, who makes our laws in the
:34:41. > :34:44.United Kingdom? Secondly, who controls our borders in the United
:34:45. > :34:52.Kingdom? I think that a country that can't make its own law that can have
:34:53. > :34:55.law applied to it from outside is not a sovereign independent country.
:34:56. > :35:00.One of the attractive things about being outside the EU is we have
:35:01. > :35:05.greater control over our national life and the idea that we had 72
:35:06. > :35:10.objections to EU law in the European Council since 1996 and all have been
:35:11. > :35:13.overruled, that is not a great democratic precedent for us. I
:35:14. > :35:16.understand the SNP argument that the nation state they prefer is
:35:17. > :35:20.Scotland. The nation state I prefer is the United Kingdom. Incidentedly,
:35:21. > :35:23.that is the nation state that the Scottish people picked in the
:35:24. > :35:29.referendum in Scotland. Indeed they did. As a Unionist, are you not
:35:30. > :35:36.worried at the prospect if England votes to leave, and Scotland votes
:35:37. > :35:39.to remain, but England's population means that overall the United
:35:40. > :35:44.Kingdom has voted to leave, that you will put Scottish independence back
:35:45. > :35:48.on the agenda again? Well, you have to think about it being possible the
:35:49. > :35:51.other way round. You may get a narrow vote to leave in England
:35:52. > :35:56.which is outweighed by a vote to remain in Scotland, Wales or
:35:57. > :36:00.Northern Ireland... Should England then declare independence from
:36:01. > :36:03.Scotland? No, I don't. You don't get politicians in England saying we
:36:04. > :36:07.will break the Union up if we don't get the result we want. The people
:36:08. > :36:13.in Scotland voted to be part of a Union. We have to respect the fact
:36:14. > :36:17.that every single UK citizen will get a vote which ever part of the UK
:36:18. > :36:24.they live in and it will have equal weight. Stephen Gethins, would your
:36:25. > :36:28.party use that scenario, that's been much touted, of overall we vote to
:36:29. > :36:32.leave but within that vote Scotland has voted to remain, would that, in
:36:33. > :36:38.your view, trigger another referendum? Well, let me pick up
:36:39. > :36:43.quickly on something that was raised there. Let's get a few facts
:36:44. > :36:48.straight about what can be applied. I asked the House of Commons Library
:36:49. > :36:52.to look into how many times the UK Government had voted against a
:36:53. > :36:55.proposal since we have had a majority Conservative Government.
:36:56. > :36:59.The answer was zero. We have a European Court to try and figure out
:37:00. > :37:03.the rules that we agree with other member states. I want to get that
:37:04. > :37:09.straight. Alright. Thank you for that. The question? On the
:37:10. > :37:12.independence question, on the independence question, Andrew, look,
:37:13. > :37:16.when this went through, I put down an amendment in Parliament that
:37:17. > :37:21.would have prevented, would have meant Scotland, England, Northern
:37:22. > :37:25.Ireland, Wales voting to leave in order to leave. If Scotland votes to
:37:26. > :37:29.remain, and the rest of the United Kingdom votes to leave, you will see
:37:30. > :37:34.a bit of a breakdown in what should be an equal partnership of nations
:37:35. > :37:39.across these islands. Liam Fox, you enjoying the campaign? Yes, I have
:37:40. > :37:44.one question to ask on that. We have had a lot of language which is
:37:45. > :37:48.pretty equivocal from the SNP that if England votes to leave and
:37:49. > :37:52.Scotland votes to remain, it may trigger a referendum. What is the
:37:53. > :37:56.question? If they want to make it happen, will they put it in their
:37:57. > :38:03.manifesto that if this happens, they will seek, that gives them a
:38:04. > :38:08.mandate? Stephen Gethins? Well, hold on, we have got a referendum now -
:38:09. > :38:12.we also voted against not having the referendum so close to these
:38:13. > :38:17.Scottish Parliament elections so you can have a longer run-in, a proper
:38:18. > :38:21.debate... He asked you if you would put a Scottish Referendum in your
:38:22. > :38:26.manifesto or not? The manifesto will be published in due course. The
:38:27. > :38:31.First Minister and other SNP politicians have made the position
:38:32. > :38:35.very clear. Would you like to see, in the event of a scenario we have
:38:36. > :38:39.been talking about, would you like to see a commitment to a second
:38:40. > :38:44.referendum in your party's manifesto for the Holyrood elections? I have
:38:45. > :38:47.not changed my mind on Scottish independence. That wasn't my
:38:48. > :38:51.question. Would you like to see a commitment in your manifesto for
:38:52. > :38:55.that? I want to see Scottish independence but in terms of the
:38:56. > :39:00.European referendum I want to see a big yes as well. I have been doing
:39:01. > :39:01.this long enough to know when my questions are not going to be
:39:02. > :39:05.answered. Thank you. Boris Johnson's decision to campaign
:39:06. > :39:08.for Britain to leave the EU has put him into a direct face-off
:39:09. > :39:12.with his closest rival for the Conservative leadership -
:39:13. > :39:15.the Chancellor George Osborne. The two rivals are now on directly
:39:16. > :39:18.opposing sides in the referendum. And the result in June
:39:19. > :39:21.will have a big impact on their respective chances
:39:22. > :39:24.of taking over from David Cameron. So who's winning
:39:25. > :39:27.the argument so far? Giles took the Daily
:39:28. > :39:29.Politics moodbox out While they are not the only names
:39:30. > :39:45.in the frame, there are two people who are favourites to succeed
:39:46. > :39:47.David Cameron as Prime Minister and Tory Party leader,
:39:48. > :39:51.George Osborne and Boris Johnson. We don't want to know
:39:52. > :39:55.which one people favour. Which one of the two do they trust
:39:56. > :40:00.on the eve of the EU referendum? Two people you probably recognise,
:40:01. > :40:02.which of those two gentlemen do I don't
:40:03. > :40:10.want to answer that. Because I do not trust
:40:11. > :40:28.George Osborne at all. Which of these two gentlemen do
:40:29. > :40:31.you trust most on the EU Referendum? I wouldn't trust him
:40:32. > :40:38.with anything! You wouldn't trust George
:40:39. > :40:40.Osborne with anything? The guy has got no experience
:40:41. > :40:50.of the real world. He has never had a proper job
:40:51. > :40:55.and yet he is running our economy. It has to be said, Boris
:40:56. > :40:58.is doing rather well. Sir, you, and usually for what has
:40:59. > :41:09.been going on, have gone Because I don't trust
:41:10. > :41:22.the other man one inch. Which of these two gentlemen do
:41:23. > :41:26.you trust most with the referendum? I don't know enough about it,
:41:27. > :41:31.but just going on the personalities Who do you trust more
:41:32. > :41:43.for the EU Referendum, I would not trust any of them
:41:44. > :42:01.but if I had to choose, On face value I would pick
:42:02. > :42:05.Boris Johnson, he seems to be doing this for political purposes rather
:42:06. > :42:07.than wanting Britain One is the Chancellor
:42:08. > :42:20.of the Exchequer, the other is the Mayor of London,
:42:21. > :42:23.and it is fair to say that some people said they trusted neither
:42:24. > :42:26.on the EU Referendum, but those who did make a choice
:42:27. > :42:37.emphatically went for Boris Johnson. We've been joined by Mike Smithson
:42:38. > :42:48.from politicalbetting.com. Welcome. If it is a vote to leave on
:42:49. > :42:52.June 23rd, surely the betting would be overwhelmingly on Boris Johnson
:42:53. > :42:56.to be the next leader? It would be on one of those who was part of the
:42:57. > :43:01.Leave campaign. One of the problems that Boris has got is that within
:43:02. > :43:08.the Conservative Party, there are a lot of doubts about his sincerity in
:43:09. > :43:11.terms of this. He waited a long time before making his declaration known.
:43:12. > :43:15.There are things on the record that he has been supportive of the EU in
:43:16. > :43:18.the past. I think there is an argument developing that maybe if it
:43:19. > :43:29.is a vote to leave, that you could see somebody who has got more pure,
:43:30. > :43:33.that would be Michael Gove. Politicians can change their mind.
:43:34. > :43:42.Is anybody putting any money on George Osborne? His price is easing
:43:43. > :43:48.quite a lot. After his Budget in June/July, he was a 50% chance in
:43:49. > :43:54.the betting, now it is about 22 Persuasion and Power in -- 22%
:43:55. > :43:58.chance. Is there anybody else in the race when it comes to betting? There
:43:59. > :44:02.has been a lot of interest in Michael Gove, there's been a lot of
:44:03. > :44:11.interest in Theresa May, who was favourite... She has faded? Maybe
:44:12. > :44:17.her decision not to join the Leave side will hurt her later on. Is it
:44:18. > :44:22.also the case that the next Conservative Leader or Mr Cameron's
:44:23. > :44:30.ability to hold on to the leadership to - he doesn't want to step down
:44:31. > :44:35.until spring of 2019. His ability to do that won't depend on him voting
:44:36. > :44:40.to remain, perhaps the size of the majority voting to remain will have
:44:41. > :44:47.an influence on Mr Cameron's longevity? Absolutely. If it was a
:44:48. > :44:54.small result, 5% or 6% margin, we will know that the Conservative
:44:55. > :44:57.Party members, Conservative Party supporters, at least half of
:44:58. > :45:01.Conservative Party MPs are on the opposite side of the argument and
:45:02. > :45:06.they won't be tamed. The pressure will be extremely great and in that
:45:07. > :45:10.context, it is very difficult seeing how Osborne can come through. The
:45:11. > :45:12.only situation that Osborne can become next leader is if there is a
:45:13. > :45:24.clear majority to remain. Is David Cameron damaged goods even
:45:25. > :45:28.if he wins the referendum? He is completely. At the start of this
:45:29. > :45:32.campaign there would have been a chance for him to remain, I don't
:45:33. > :45:36.think so and I think George Osborne has no chance either. The Tories
:45:37. > :45:42.want want another posh boy. It is ironic that Boris is Porsche, he
:45:43. > :45:45.went to Eton and Oxford, yet he weathered better than George
:45:46. > :45:49.Osborne. George Osborne does not connect with people the way that
:45:50. > :45:54.Boris does. Boris is a classic man of the people, George Osborne has
:45:55. > :45:57.not come he is an awkward person to get behind. Theresa May, I would
:45:58. > :46:03.have thought, would have been a shoe in for the vote, for the Tories.
:46:04. > :46:07.However, a few months ago, at the Tory party conference, she was
:46:08. > :46:13.talking about immigration, preventing social cohesion and then
:46:14. > :46:17.she falls into line behind Cameron. She has undermined herself. Do we
:46:18. > :46:22.know what she thinks? I only know about the kind of shoes she wears.
:46:23. > :46:27.If David Cameron is damaged goods even with a vote to remain, it
:46:28. > :46:32.follows, I suggest, that George Osborne is damaged goods.
:46:33. > :46:37.Definitely. He's part of the Cameron project and does not have any of the
:46:38. > :46:41.easy charm, he presents himself as the Boden died of the nation, he has
:46:42. > :46:45.that Ed Miliband quality, there's something about George Osborne that
:46:46. > :46:50.makes people go, there is something about him don't like. There are
:46:51. > :46:54.often discussions among people like this about who the next leader of
:46:55. > :47:00.any particular party will be. We have these discussions and the
:47:01. > :47:06.person who emerges turns out never to have been mentioned, it happened
:47:07. > :47:09.with Mrs Thatcher in 1975 and it is happening in America with Donald
:47:10. > :47:15.Trump and it happened here with Jeremy Corbyn. The Black Swan
:47:16. > :47:20.candidate? As easy, they are all posh boys. If Cameron survives
:47:21. > :47:24.George Osborne will have a posh job. Maybe somebody like Stephen Crabb
:47:25. > :47:28.who doesn't have the posh background, has a similar
:47:29. > :47:34.sensibility yet from a more normal background, he's done an impressive
:47:35. > :47:39.brief with a job that is normally a backwater job, the Secretary of
:47:40. > :47:44.State for Wales. Or is your money on? Michael Gove. The last time the
:47:45. > :47:48.Tories shows a leader they had been beaten three times by Tony Blair.
:47:49. > :47:52.They wanted someone who appeared in a double. Now they are facing Jeremy
:47:53. > :47:57.Corbyn, nobody in the Tory party believes they will be defeated by
:47:58. > :48:03.him. They can go for someone who actually appeals to their basic
:48:04. > :48:08.soul. To you by Michael Gove? I like Michael Gove. I am not sure people
:48:09. > :48:17.will like him enough to do it, a lot of his jobs come he's been checked
:48:18. > :48:19.out of them, and people don't like him. He's not physically the right
:48:20. > :48:22.character although I think he is the smartest guy. He's much smarter than
:48:23. > :48:23.Boris and would be a better Prime Minister than Boris would be. We
:48:24. > :48:25.will leave there, thank you. Now, with all the talk
:48:26. > :48:27.of the upcoming EU Referendum you could be forgiven for forgetting
:48:28. > :48:30.that many people will be May sees scores of local
:48:31. > :48:34.councillors up for election, while voters in Wales,
:48:35. > :48:46.Scotland and Northern Ireland Today Plaid Cymru begins its spring
:48:47. > :48:49.conference. It is planning to challenge Labour in Wales.
:48:50. > :48:55.We're joined now by the Party's leader, Leanne Wood,
:48:56. > :49:06.Welcome back to proper macro, you have made ambitious pledges, are
:49:07. > :49:12.they all costed? -- welcome back to The Daily Politics.
:49:13. > :49:18.Yes, when we published a manifesto we will publish all the pledges,
:49:19. > :49:25.which have been costed. While ambitious, they will be delivered in
:49:26. > :49:28.the existing Welsh assembly budget. You would guarantee cancer diagnoses
:49:29. > :49:36.in 28 days, how much would that cost? To which either that pledge we
:49:37. > :49:43.have said that we will build three new diagnostic centres, and the cost
:49:44. > :49:46.for that will be around ?30 million, and that would be capital
:49:47. > :49:51.expenditure, we've got plans to increase the amount of
:49:52. > :49:55.infrastructure and capital spending in Wales, to try to stimulator
:49:56. > :49:57.economic activity, and so are building these diagnostic centres
:49:58. > :50:03.will be part of that programme as well. You've got to pay to build the
:50:04. > :50:09.hospitals and then you've got to pay for the running costs of doing these
:50:10. > :50:17.cancer diagnoses within 28 days so how much does that all cost? We do
:50:18. > :50:24.need extra staff in the Welsh NHS. How much? Won and other of our
:50:25. > :50:31.pledges... I want to do this it by it, how much will this cost? The
:50:32. > :50:35.point is, Andrew, that all our pledges are intertwined. If we want
:50:36. > :50:41.to have more people diagnosed quicker, then we need more staff to
:50:42. > :50:45.do that. So the extra thousand doctors and nurses will help us
:50:46. > :50:49.deliver on the Cancer pledge. You can't separate them. I did not get
:50:50. > :50:56.the answer, let me come onto the next one. You are pledging to hire
:50:57. > :50:59.an additional 2000 doctors and nurses, abolish the care home
:51:00. > :51:04.chargers and the elderly and people with dementia. How much will all
:51:05. > :51:09.that cost every year? In a total all of our pledges amount to less than
:51:10. > :51:17.5% of the existing watchers and prebudget. I'm sorry, Leanne Wood,
:51:18. > :51:21.you are making these promises, it is a legitimate question to ask amateur
:51:22. > :51:27.tour cost. I am not arguing if it is the right thing to do, I just want
:51:28. > :51:32.to outline, how much would it cost? The doctors will cost between ?65
:51:33. > :51:38.million and ?100 million, depending on the grades and where we are at
:51:39. > :51:43.the time. Our policy to abolish care home charges will cost ?220 million
:51:44. > :51:51.of the two terms of a Plaid Cymru government. These pledges have been
:51:52. > :51:56.costed, and they will connect together to provide a position
:51:57. > :52:01.whereby we can create a healthier Wales. You will also write off
:52:02. > :52:06.student debt for students living and working in Wales within five years
:52:07. > :52:14.of graduating. How much will that cost you? That policy will save
:52:15. > :52:18.money. It will free money up to invest in our underfunded university
:52:19. > :52:21.sector. What we have the moment is many young people leaving Wales to
:52:22. > :52:27.go to university, and then they don't come back. With this policy we
:52:28. > :52:33.will pay off tuition fee debt that they will have accrued a spot of
:52:34. > :52:37.being a student when they return to Wales and pay it back into a Welsh
:52:38. > :52:41.tax pot. That will then ensure that we have received is coming into the
:52:42. > :52:47.country and a return on our investment. -- that we have
:52:48. > :52:52.receiveds coming into the country. It may be in the long run, you may
:52:53. > :52:59.be quids in overtime yet to pay off student debt is the cost in the
:53:00. > :53:06.short-term. How much? It is not an upfront cost. The debt is paid after
:53:07. > :53:10.they return and work in Wales. So in fact it is a cost that will come
:53:11. > :53:17.later down the line and not in the early years. Are you going to pay
:53:18. > :53:27.for all this within the existing budget? Would you cut other things,
:53:28. > :53:30.will you raise taxes? We cannot raise taxes, our National Assembly
:53:31. > :53:35.does not have the power to do that at this point in time. There will
:53:36. > :53:45.have to be rationalisation of existing programmes. Does that mean
:53:46. > :53:49.cut? Our education policies are designed to lift children out of
:53:50. > :53:53.poverty. It is a scandal that one third of the children living in
:53:54. > :53:59.Wales live in poverty. We know that education is potentially a route out
:54:00. > :54:04.of poverty. So we need to look at these policies as a whole. What are
:54:05. > :54:09.you going to cut to pay for these promises? There are a number of
:54:10. > :54:17.existing anti-poverty programmes that can be re-rationalised and
:54:18. > :54:24.reapplied, and we see our education policies as part of the anti-poverty
:54:25. > :54:29.agenda. All right. You position yourself as the second party of
:54:30. > :54:34.Wales, the alternative to a Labour government in Cardiff. But the fact
:54:35. > :54:38.is, you got fewer votes than Ukip at the general election, and you lost
:54:39. > :54:44.seats in the Welsh assembly and you could easily come forth in these
:54:45. > :54:49.elections. In May people in Wales have a choice as to whether or not
:54:50. > :54:53.they want to carry on with another five years of a Labour government,
:54:54. > :54:57.and remember we have had 17 years of Labour running public services in
:54:58. > :55:01.Wales now, all to do something completely different. And what I
:55:02. > :55:05.have done with my team is put together a fantastic programme of
:55:06. > :55:10.government, we've got a very strong team of candidates, and so we will
:55:11. > :55:13.be presenting ourselves as an alternative government to people in
:55:14. > :55:16.Wales in May. And it is a matter for them in that election whether or not
:55:17. > :55:21.they want to take that option whether they want to continue with
:55:22. > :55:26.another five-year is of the Labour Party. Thank you. You've got a very
:55:27. > :55:28.friendly squirrel behind your! Clearly you are attracting the
:55:29. > :55:33.animal vote! Thank you for joining us. Leanne Wood from the Plaid Cymru
:55:34. > :55:43.conference in Llanelli. The race for the White House moved
:55:44. > :55:47.up one gear this week, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton both moving
:55:48. > :55:50.decisively ahead of their rivals. Mrs Clinton even more so than Mr
:55:51. > :55:55.Trump. Yesterday the former Republican presidential candidate
:55:56. > :55:59.Mitt Romney, remember that he stood against Barack Obama in 2012,
:56:00. > :56:03.attacked his party colleague Donald Trump, even though he got an
:56:04. > :56:10.endorsement from him in 2012, saying he was not fit to lead the country.
:56:11. > :56:15.Perhaps Donald Trump dominated the Republican TV debate last night.
:56:16. > :56:26.This is a flavour of the exchanges. Here they are. What did you say
:56:27. > :56:31.about me? I don't like you. If we nominate Tom and we will spend the
:56:32. > :56:37.spring, the fall and the summer with the Republican nominee a fraud
:56:38. > :56:44.trial. Muggy it's a minor civil case! Donald, learn not to
:56:45. > :56:48.interrupt! Count to ten! He is trying to con people into giving him
:56:49. > :56:58.their vote like he can't these people into giving him their money.
:56:59. > :57:03.The real con artist is Senator Marco Rubio, who was elected in Florida
:57:04. > :57:08.and has the worst voting record in the US Senate. How do you answer
:57:09. > :57:12.Mitt Romney? He was a failed candidate. He should have beaten
:57:13. > :57:16.President Obama easily. He failed miserably and was an embarrassment
:57:17. > :57:23.to everyone including the Republican party. Look at these hands, have a
:57:24. > :57:27.small hands? And he referred to my hands, if they are small, something
:57:28. > :57:37.else must be small. I guarantee you, there's no problem! And got a policy
:57:38. > :57:41.question feel, so. Lets see if he answers it. Don't worry, little
:57:42. > :58:01.Marco, I well! -- I will! It looks like the only thing that
:58:02. > :58:09.can stop Donald Trump will be a brokered convention. If it is Trump
:58:10. > :58:13.versus Mrs Clinton, will she win? Yes and buy a bigger margin than
:58:14. > :58:17.President Obama did in 2012. A lot of people will vote for Hillary,
:58:18. > :58:20.even if they did not want her there particularly, they will prefer
:58:21. > :58:25.having her to him. There's just time before we go
:58:26. > :58:28.to find out the answer to our quiz. After a major overhaul of its tax
:58:29. > :58:33.structure Facebook is set to pay millions of pounds more in tax
:58:34. > :58:35.in the UK. But how much corporation tax did it
:58:36. > :58:37.pay in 2014? Was it a) Four thousand pounds b)
:58:38. > :58:39.Forty thousand pounds c) Four million pounds or d)
:58:40. > :58:42.Forty million pounds So Carole, Stephen -
:58:43. > :58:46.what's the correct answer? ?4000? The correct answer. Good man.
:58:47. > :58:47.Less than advertised on Facebook, so they were quids in.
:58:48. > :58:49.Thanks to Carole, Stephen and all my guests.
:58:50. > :58:51.I'll be back on Sunday with the Sunday Politics
:58:52. > :58:57.I hope you can join me them. BBC One, Sunday morning.
:58:58. > :59:15.We are told that OJ Simpson IS in that car,
:59:16. > :59:19.Do you think he did it? She was terrified of him.