:00:38. > :00:44.Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics.
:00:45. > :00:49.The EU and Turkey have agreed terms of a wide-ranging deal designed to
:00:50. > :00:51.stem the flow of migrants into Europe.
:00:52. > :00:54.The Turkish government has said it will take back all illegal migrants
:00:55. > :00:57.arriving on the Greek islands, as long as the EU accepts
:00:58. > :00:59.an equivalent number of Syrians from camps in Turkey.
:01:00. > :01:04.The EU Commission President, says it's real game-changer.
:01:05. > :01:06.Women who campaign to leave the European Union
:01:07. > :01:11.So says Employment Minister, Priti Patel, who wants out.
:01:12. > :01:18.She says she's fighting for her "democratic freedom".
:01:19. > :01:22.As MPs prepare to debate International Women's Day,
:01:23. > :01:24.we'll be asking should we be celebrating it at all.
:01:25. > :01:26.And, we'll be talking to the comeback kid,
:01:27. > :01:31.The former Conservative MP has topped the candidates list for local
:01:32. > :01:44.All that in the next hour and with us for the duration,
:01:45. > :01:46.President of the polling company, YouGov, Peter Kellner.
:01:47. > :01:52.Now let's talk first about the migrant crisis.
:01:53. > :01:55.The EU and Turkey say they have agreed the broad principles
:01:56. > :01:57.of a plan to ease the current crisis.
:01:58. > :01:59.But while yesterday's summit in Brussels was hailed
:02:00. > :02:02.as a "breakthrough" by European Council President Donald Tusk,
:02:03. > :02:09.The EU has been trying to strike a deal with Turkey whereby
:02:10. > :02:12.the country will prevent more people from the war-torn Middle East
:02:13. > :02:21.Turkey is already sheltering more than 2.7 million refugees,
:02:22. > :02:25.most of them from the civil war in neighbouring Syria.
:02:26. > :02:32.However, each day another 2,000 refugees - mostly from Syria,
:02:33. > :02:35.Iraq and Afghanistan - cross the Aegean sea into Europe.
:02:36. > :02:37.Under the plan agreed yesterday, all irregular migrants arriving
:02:38. > :02:42.in Greece from Turkey would be returned, at the EU's cost.
:02:43. > :02:45.For any Syrian returned, Turkey wants the EU to accept
:02:46. > :02:54.a recognised Syrian refugee from one of its camps.
:02:55. > :02:57.Migrants who are intercepted and who aren't from Syria won't be
:02:58. > :03:01.Turkey also wants its citizens to be granted visa-free travel in Europe
:03:02. > :03:04.sooner rather than later - by the summer of this year
:03:05. > :03:10.Turkey is also said to have requested another 3 billion euros
:03:11. > :03:12.of EU aid to cope with the refugee crisis,
:03:13. > :03:15.on top of the 3 billion euros already pledged.
:03:16. > :03:18.Finally, Turkey wants to advance its bid to become
:03:19. > :03:31.The plan is not yet binding, and there will likely be further
:03:32. > :03:33.discussions at another EU meeting next week.
:03:34. > :03:34.While the European Council President Donald Tusk
:03:35. > :03:37.was optimistic, some EU leaders have already voiced their opposition
:03:38. > :03:47.We can speak to our Europe correspondent in Brussels. Who is
:03:48. > :03:53.voicing their concerns about the steel? What we have heard today is
:03:54. > :03:58.particularly coming from the United Nations, and its refugee agency.
:03:59. > :04:05.There have been concerns raised about the legality of this plan.
:04:06. > :04:08.Already yesterday as the details of what the EU and Turkey were
:04:09. > :04:14.discussing were leaking out, there were voices starting to be raised
:04:15. > :04:19.about this idea of taking all the arrivals in Greece and returning
:04:20. > :04:25.them immediately back to Turkey, and then having this one for one plan,
:04:26. > :04:31.where 41 refugee returned to Turkey, one refugee would be taken from a
:04:32. > :04:35.camp in Turkey and shifted to the EU and have their asylum claims
:04:36. > :04:42.processed and accepted and taken to the EU. Now, the problem with this,
:04:43. > :04:48.the UN is saying, is a legal one. Under international law, mass
:04:49. > :04:56.returns of groups of people from one country are not allowed. Refugees
:04:57. > :05:01.under international human rights conventions, to which the EU and
:05:02. > :05:07.European countries are parties, or are signatories and follow, states
:05:08. > :05:11.that individuals who arrive somewhere seeking international
:05:12. > :05:17.protection can only be returned if their claim will be heard when they
:05:18. > :05:22.return to that third country. If it is clear that they will still have a
:05:23. > :05:26.hearing. Last night the EU leaders were talking about those being
:05:27. > :05:29.returned going to the back of the queue. It sounds complicated and
:05:30. > :05:34.begs the question that before the ink dries on this deal that has been
:05:35. > :05:38.described as a breakthrough by Donald Tusk, is it actually going to
:05:39. > :05:45.work in practice? There are two big questions. The first one, prior to
:05:46. > :05:50.that, is probably slightly premature to call this a deal actually. We
:05:51. > :05:55.should probably say that this is a proposal on the table, an idea. The
:05:56. > :05:58.EU countries were not able to agree yesterday said the first big
:05:59. > :06:06.challenge is, will they all signed up to this? We know countries like
:06:07. > :06:09.Hungary don't want to accept people, refugees shifted directly from
:06:10. > :06:14.Turkey into the EU. They have threatened to veto that part of it.
:06:15. > :06:18.Potentially they can put up roadblocks, and so can other
:06:19. > :06:26.countries, to the idea of granting Turkey major concessions in terms of
:06:27. > :06:31.free travel to the EU. If it goes through, would it work? We are
:06:32. > :06:36.already hearing refugees saying they would not be put off because they
:06:37. > :06:39.are so keen to reach Europe, and their situation they are leaving
:06:40. > :06:41.behind in Syria is so bad. Thank you.
:06:42. > :06:44.I'm joined now by the foreign affairs analyst Tim Marshall,
:06:45. > :06:47.and the Conservative MP Heidi Allen, who visited the island of Lesbos -
:06:48. > :06:49.on the frontline of the migrant crisis -
:06:50. > :06:58.Is this really a breakthrough deal? Not yet. Mr Tusk was full of
:06:59. > :07:01.hyperbole yesterday. He said that the days of irregular travel to
:07:02. > :07:07.Europe are over. Quite a statement to make. They are not. There will be
:07:08. > :07:12.another 2500 people coming today anyway. The practicalities of the
:07:13. > :07:18.deal, theoretically it looks good, 141 is a great idea. But the
:07:19. > :07:21.practicalities of sorting out who is Syrian and who isn't, which country
:07:22. > :07:26.they come out of and which country they go to, and the biggest thing,
:07:27. > :07:30.Libya has not been mentioned and that is getting worse. What happens
:07:31. > :07:37.if you go across to Italy? Because the agreement is going from Greece
:07:38. > :07:43.back to Turkey. But the biggest problem is the one for one. I was
:07:44. > :07:48.asked to be on this programme last week and I said Angela Merkel had
:07:49. > :07:54.nothing but Plan A. And this is just Plan A with finesse. Plan is that
:07:55. > :07:58.each European country will take a proportion of these refugees. Well,
:07:59. > :08:03.they won't, so who is going to take them? That quota system has a ready
:08:04. > :08:07.been rejected by leaders like David Cameron. Do you think that is what
:08:08. > :08:13.is necessary to make anything work in terms of solving this crisis?
:08:14. > :08:16.There has to be an element of that. I agree that it sounds great in
:08:17. > :08:21.principle but it is getting people to sign up and agree. I think to be
:08:22. > :08:25.fair to European leaders, so far I suspect they have been rabbit in the
:08:26. > :08:30.headlights, and this may focus their minds and at least are talking. But
:08:31. > :08:37.it will come to an end point where this is about numbers. You think in
:08:38. > :08:41.the" as will be necessary. We'll EU leaders -- will be EU leaders sign
:08:42. > :08:45.up to take a proportion? If they cannot come to a sensible decision
:08:46. > :08:50.between themselves it may well come to that. These are free travel for
:08:51. > :08:57.75 million Turks, is that Aaron acceptable price to pay for their
:08:58. > :09:02.cooperation? I am not an expert on Turkey, I don't know. Do we need to
:09:03. > :09:07.do a deal and find things that work for each party. It sounds like this
:09:08. > :09:11.quid pro quo is necessary in desperate times but it is quite a
:09:12. > :09:16.big price to pay. Turkey, rightly or wrongly, has extracted quite a big
:09:17. > :09:20.price. They are in the driving seat, and they have doubled the amount of
:09:21. > :09:24.money they have asked for. If the deal goes through, there are a bunch
:09:25. > :09:32.of problems we can come up with. Some of which we have a ready said,
:09:33. > :09:37.but here are another two. For visa-free travel for all 75 million
:09:38. > :09:43.Turks starting in June, Cyprus, an EU member, has to agree. The price
:09:44. > :09:46.for Cyprus agreeing that Turks can travel in the EU free are, you
:09:47. > :09:52.recognise the Greek Cypriot government in Cyprus. That's
:09:53. > :09:58.probably not going to happen. So that's one reason the deal may not
:09:59. > :10:02.happen. The other thing I would say, at the moment, and this is looking
:10:03. > :10:05.at it very unpleasantly, you are making huge profits out of these
:10:06. > :10:12.jackets that don't work at the moment. People are dying, you don't
:10:13. > :10:17.care, you are making money. There is a huge market and they simply don't
:10:18. > :10:22.work. Dive out of that, no pun intended, and get into paperwork.
:10:23. > :10:29.Because the paperwork, if you've got 75 million Turks, every single one
:10:30. > :10:31.of these refugees will try to get Turkish papers, and some will get
:10:32. > :10:37.forged papers and they will keep coming. The unintended consequences
:10:38. > :10:40.do seem to be never-ending. I'd like to hear about your experiences in
:10:41. > :10:45.Lesbos talking about these life jackets, what did you see? Foolishly
:10:46. > :10:49.there was me when I saw branded with Yamaha or something on the back, I
:10:50. > :10:58.thought at least that was a proper one. But they print them with known
:10:59. > :11:04.brands. They are knock-offs. These are what are being handed out? Not
:11:05. > :11:09.handed, people pay for these. They simply do not work. What else did
:11:10. > :11:13.you see in Lesbos? To some extent something has to be done because the
:11:14. > :11:18.front line is struggling, to put it mildly. Absolutely, that is what I
:11:19. > :11:22.saw. Greece was desperately under resourced, left on its own. The
:11:23. > :11:28.Greek restaurant is where backing up vans with food, not the humanitarian
:11:29. > :11:32.agencies. If this focuses minds and gets European leaders round the
:11:33. > :11:36.table, it has to be a good start. What do you think about the EU opt
:11:37. > :11:42.out of resettlement of asylum seekers already in Europe? Do you
:11:43. > :11:47.think that is justifiable and sustainable? Probably from a legal
:11:48. > :11:50.point of view and from our desire about how our role in Europe is
:11:51. > :11:56.going forward, yes. At morally, I would question that. Have you made
:11:57. > :12:01.that clear to the government? Yes, I said I think it is a fluid
:12:02. > :12:04.situation, the volumes of people coming are just incredible, and our
:12:05. > :12:10.decision number is has to be fluid as well. In terms of public
:12:11. > :12:18.sentiment, has it changed, has it gone from sympathy because of that
:12:19. > :12:22.very emotive picture, perhaps before a lot of people had sympathy for
:12:23. > :12:29.migrants coming from Syria, has that changed? There has been some change.
:12:30. > :12:36.Basically British people do not want the problem in any way to come to
:12:37. > :12:41.Britain. Of course the practical point is not what our polls show day
:12:42. > :12:47.in, day out, but the impact on the referendum debate. And I think the
:12:48. > :12:51.problem that David Cameron faces as Prime Minister is that if he did not
:12:52. > :12:55.have the referendum hanging over him he'd probably feel he had some
:12:56. > :13:00.flexibility about what to do. The problem is, if he does something
:13:01. > :13:05.which is represented, fairly or unfairly, as being soft on Europe,
:13:06. > :13:09.soft on immigration, that will play into the European referendum
:13:10. > :13:14.campaign. The referendum campaign closes his options in a bit in terms
:13:15. > :13:18.of domestic politics. Looking at it from a geopolitical point of view,
:13:19. > :13:20.looking at Turkey if there is visa-free travel and further
:13:21. > :13:26.discussions about potential membership down the line, Turkey of
:13:27. > :13:31.course it's in a strategic position. On its right hand side is Syria. It
:13:32. > :13:34.is sort of the border through. How could that changed the whole terms
:13:35. > :13:38.of trade of this debate if those things come into play? They have the
:13:39. > :13:43.whip hand, Turkey is the dominant partner in this discussion which is
:13:44. > :13:47.why the EU is bending over backwards to give it what it once so far. But
:13:48. > :13:52.that's Donald Tusk and Angela Merkel bending over backwards. You get down
:13:53. > :13:56.to the 28 leaders of countries, I'm not sure they are going to bend over
:13:57. > :14:00.backwards. So you don't think this deal will hold? We have already
:14:01. > :14:06.named many problems with it holding. Your correspondence pointed out the
:14:07. > :14:12.legal problems, as brought up by UNHCR and others. Turkey is doing an
:14:13. > :14:16.amazing job of taking care of people, albeit under difficult
:14:17. > :14:19.conditions. They've already spent 10 billion of their own money, they are
:14:20. > :14:25.about to get four and a half billion out of the EU. I'm just not sure
:14:26. > :14:29.that the deal will go through next week. If it does go through next
:14:30. > :14:33.week, will it stick? Two final things to say, it is coming too
:14:34. > :14:41.close for Angela Merkel's regional elections on Sunday. And secondly,
:14:42. > :14:45.not the EU accession but the visa talks for the Turks, they are
:14:46. > :14:49.demanding that they talk in June, not October. And in June the Brits
:14:50. > :14:51.have the referendum. And all this plays into the referendum. Thank you
:14:52. > :14:54.both very much. On According to pollsters like Peter
:14:55. > :14:59.here, Jeremy Corbyn is the first new Leader of the Opposition
:15:00. > :15:01.to score negative approval ratings. So the question for today is,
:15:02. > :15:04.which of these future prime ministers scored the highest net
:15:05. > :15:07.approval ratings when At the end of the show,
:15:08. > :15:22.Peter Kellner will give us Now, it may have escaped
:15:23. > :15:26.your notice but today is International Women's Day
:15:27. > :15:29.and to mark it, female campaigners from both sides of the EU debate
:15:30. > :15:32.are setting out their stall. Some people have criticised
:15:33. > :15:36.the campaign so far Thank you very much,
:15:37. > :15:51.it's great to be here in Slough, And if they come through
:15:52. > :15:57.the tunnel, we haven't It is actually an internecine war
:15:58. > :16:03.in the Tory party that is now being played out across
:16:04. > :16:04.a whole continent. The debate has been so much
:16:05. > :16:07.about Conservatives But ultimately it's not about me,
:16:08. > :16:12.it's not about you, any individual, it's
:16:13. > :16:17.about this country. The alternative is a big leap
:16:18. > :16:20.in the dark with all the risks There's no animosity, we're working
:16:21. > :16:24.together, we are one family. I don't think I'll say
:16:25. > :16:35.anything, after that! Alan Johnson lost for words for
:16:36. > :16:38.once! And with me now, the Conservative MP
:16:39. > :16:40.Anne-Marie Trevelyan from Women for Britain and Labour MP
:16:41. > :16:48.Liz Kendall, who's a member of The six cabinet attending ministers
:16:49. > :16:53.who are with you on the Brexit side, two of them are women, so how has
:16:54. > :16:57.this been a male dominated campaign? We've had voices slowly coming into
:16:58. > :17:00.the debate. A lot of them are men because there are more men still in
:17:01. > :17:05.the House of Commons than there are women. Those of us who have got
:17:06. > :17:10.strong views, like myself, put themselves forward into the debate
:17:11. > :17:15.very early on. Does it feel as if women haven't had enough to say in
:17:16. > :17:19.politics about this campaign? I'm very proud that we've got brilliant
:17:20. > :17:24.women like Angela eagle and others making a strong case for Labour but
:17:25. > :17:29.I think the campaign has been to bloke -ish. When you look at that
:17:30. > :17:34.film, all of the leading politicians were men. This is a problem because
:17:35. > :17:37.women are more likely to be undecided about how to vote in the
:17:38. > :17:40.euro referendum and they're unsure whether they are going to vote at
:17:41. > :17:47.all so it's really important that their views are heard. I would say
:17:48. > :17:50.that if you look at the business world, so very male dominated, and
:17:51. > :17:54.the economic case is very important and we need to get more within
:17:55. > :18:00.voices. So it is symptomatic of a wider problem? Well, it's a societal
:18:01. > :18:03.problem that there are still too few women in top leadership positions,
:18:04. > :18:07.whether that's in politics, business or the law. That's why it's so
:18:08. > :18:11.important that an international Women's Day we make the case about
:18:12. > :18:15.why Britain is better for women, what their kids get out of it and
:18:16. > :18:19.why it's a positive message for the future. Priti Patel said today that
:18:20. > :18:25.women in Britain are fighting for the same cause of the suffragettes.
:18:26. > :18:27.She made a comparison between the Democratic reason she's fighting for
:18:28. > :18:31.and what Emmeline Pankhurst was fighting for. Really? I think her
:18:32. > :18:31.point fighting for. Really? I think her
:18:32. > :18:37.where there has been a democratic fighting for. Really? I think her
:18:38. > :18:52.deficit it has often been women who have
:18:53. > :18:58.deficit it has often been women who this referendum. You're shaking your
:18:59. > :19:07.farcical comment to make. The suffragettes fought for equality
:19:08. > :20:09.farcical comment to make. The statutory holidays
:20:10. > :20:10.like Toyota and Rolls-Royce saying, look,
:20:11. > :21:05.like Toyota and Rolls-Royce saying, I've had... This is one
:21:06. > :22:33.like Toyota and Rolls-Royce saying, like? Yes, out is very clear. On the
:22:34. > :25:39.like Toyota and Rolls-Royce saying, resigned. I really
:25:40. > :26:01.person. Did he stepped over the line when he
:26:02. > :26:55.person. Did he stepped over the line understand he said he didn't
:26:56. > :30:48.the menfolk talking about politics. Today there
:30:49. > :30:52.the menfolk talking about politics. Day. Many men have pioneered to help
:30:53. > :30:55.women who are survivors of domestic violence and so on. I think it is
:30:56. > :31:00.just an opportunity to remember our key goals. But how is this they
:31:01. > :31:05.going to really help you achieve goals of equality or defeating
:31:06. > :31:10.domestic violence or equalising the pay gap if it still exists? I think
:31:11. > :31:16.it allows us to focus our work on it. You have the celebration, but
:31:17. > :31:21.also for example I went into a girls school this morning and we had a
:31:22. > :31:27.conversation such as the one you had with the two politicians in here,
:31:28. > :31:32.and they are all firmly in the in can. They seemed to be worried about
:31:33. > :31:36.travelling. They were trained to encapsulate the mood or a feeling
:31:37. > :31:40.about something to do with the out campaign, something negative and
:31:41. > :31:44.match. Let's stay off the EU referendum for a few moments. The
:31:45. > :31:50.pay gap. Are you saying there are no issues left that women to campaign
:31:51. > :31:54.on because life is equal in every way? There is certainly no pay
:31:55. > :31:56.discrimination. There are single cases, of course, but no evidence
:31:57. > :32:02.that women are being discriminated against doing huge extent. In fact
:32:03. > :32:07.women out there and then under the age of about 35. Before they have
:32:08. > :32:15.kids, basically. Then women decide to have children and also to care
:32:16. > :32:18.for them. We are led to believe this is a terrible thing, women taking
:32:19. > :32:22.time out of their careers to raise their children, care for them and if
:32:23. > :32:30.then the care they need. Well, do you think that is terrible? Over a
:32:31. > :32:34.52 year lifetime of working women are ?300,000 worse off, that is the
:32:35. > :32:42.evidence by a well respected consultancy. I think what matters, a
:32:43. > :32:45.lot of women don't have a choice, maybe they are a single-parent
:32:46. > :32:50.household, they have to pay their rent, pay their bills, and they have
:32:51. > :32:53.to work. So this idea that there is choice, certainly in an expensive
:32:54. > :32:57.city with housing at the cost it is in London, many women don't have
:32:58. > :33:05.that choice, they go out and find what they can. Pants over a life
:33:06. > :33:08.span. I use saying women choose to invest -- that is over a life span,
:33:09. > :33:15.I use saying women choose to earn less? A recent report said that
:33:16. > :33:19.middle-class women would work less than they currently do and look
:33:20. > :33:23.after their children if they were able to. What about women who do not
:33:24. > :33:28.have the choice, those who need to go out to work? They are supported,
:33:29. > :33:33.there is a very big welfare state and most childcare is covered in the
:33:34. > :33:38.tax credit system. But just in terms of when men get older and do earn
:33:39. > :33:42.more money, that money is being spent on women. The money that men
:33:43. > :33:47.are earning is being spent on their families. Only in the West would
:33:48. > :33:52.that be seen as a bad thing. We should celebrate the fact men are
:33:53. > :33:56.providing for their families. As the token men in this discussion. Not
:33:57. > :34:04.token, but DS. Let me make two points. The first is
:34:05. > :34:09.token, but DS. Let me make two children, they still do not do as
:34:10. > :34:11.well, not as many get to the top in different areas, profession,
:34:12. > :34:19.business or whatever. That's not the evidence I've read. Let Peter
:34:20. > :34:24.finish. And my second point is, I think we need to make a cultural
:34:25. > :34:28.shift that as women become mothers, come back to paid work a few years
:34:29. > :34:33.later, why don't we, instead of saying it is a career break, why
:34:34. > :34:35.don't we say these are people who become immensely skilled at
:34:36. > :34:41.multitasking, time management, conflict resolution, being able to
:34:42. > :34:47.work flat out when dog tired, and I think we should be making those
:34:48. > :34:52.four, five, six years part of a positive aspect of your CV. And
:34:53. > :34:55.women coming back into the workforce, especially when they want
:34:56. > :34:58.to go far in their careers, are given more opportunity to do so
:34:59. > :35:02.because of their writs periods of mother had. On that note we have to
:35:03. > :35:04.end it. Now, one of the defining moments
:35:05. > :35:06.of the 1997 general election was the sight of Neil Hamilton
:35:07. > :35:10.losing his parliamentary seat. Since then the former Conservative
:35:11. > :35:12.MP has kept himself busy appearing on chat shows and in pantomimes,
:35:13. > :35:16.but in May he will stand for a seat So is the start of Neil Hamilton's
:35:17. > :35:38.political comeback? So, congratulations in topping the
:35:39. > :35:41.Ukip Welsh candidate list. Have you received congratulations from Nigel
:35:42. > :35:45.Farage? He is in Strasbourg at the moment, he has been out of contact.
:35:46. > :35:51.He is said to be furious. You would have to do ask him. The newspaper
:35:52. > :35:56.reports were that he was incandescent with rage. You read it
:35:57. > :36:03.in the tabloids so it must be true. I'm not sure it was a tabloid
:36:04. > :36:07.actually. The Times is a tabloid now. Are you really saying he will
:36:08. > :36:10.be pleased? I don't think this is a vitally important question in the
:36:11. > :36:15.grand scheme of things and I will not get involved in Tinseltown.
:36:16. > :36:20.Quite you must be disappointed if that is the case? I am delighted I
:36:21. > :36:24.am the choice of the Ukip members in Wales. Whatever the views of Nigel
:36:25. > :36:28.Farage, you did not have a vote in this election process but the
:36:29. > :36:31.ordinary Ukip members did. I am delighted to say they have chosen me
:36:32. > :36:36.to be the top candidate in my region of mid and West Wales. Are you going
:36:37. > :36:42.to meet up with him soon? I meet with him regularly and I don't know
:36:43. > :36:45.when our next meeting will be. We have a meeting at least once a month
:36:46. > :36:49.through our national executive and I'm looking forward to meeting him
:36:50. > :36:53.again. It has also been reported, prominent party members in Wales
:36:54. > :36:58.have complained that you were foisted on them, is there any truth
:36:59. > :37:02.in that? I have been foisted upon them by themselves, then. Because I
:37:03. > :37:07.am the top candidate in my region as the result of a ballot of all
:37:08. > :37:10.members in Wales. So there is no question of being foisted,
:37:11. > :37:15.parachuted or any other pejorative words which some people have applied
:37:16. > :37:19.to me and other candidates. These complaints normally come from people
:37:20. > :37:24.who are disappointed themselves. Do you think it is wise to come back
:37:25. > :37:28.into politics? Why would you want to do it? I'm not doing it for myself,
:37:29. > :37:33.I'm doing it for my country, that's why I went into politics in the
:37:34. > :37:37.first place. I have strong beliefs. One thing which has been a thread
:37:38. > :37:41.through my life since 1967 when I joined the anti-Common market league
:37:42. > :37:45.is opposition to what we now know as the EU. What I want to do more than
:37:46. > :37:51.anything else in the world is to free our country from the tentacles
:37:52. > :37:57.of Russell 's and restore responsible democratic government in
:37:58. > :38:01.Britain -- tentacles of Brussels. Will you be working in Wales? I will
:38:02. > :38:05.be working in Cardiff at least three days a week through the assembly
:38:06. > :38:09.meeting, and having a constituency which covers 80% of the landmass of
:38:10. > :38:14.Wales I will have to make some tough decisions about to base myself. In
:38:15. > :38:18.the first instance I will be looking for somewhere in Cardiff where I can
:38:19. > :38:21.base myself during the working week. And then my constituency will go
:38:22. > :38:26.from the Menai Straits in the north to Saint Davids head in the south,
:38:27. > :38:27.so I am probably better off getting a mobile home in that case. Thank
:38:28. > :38:31.you. Now our guest of the day,
:38:32. > :38:34.Peter Kellner has made the odd buck or two from finding out,
:38:35. > :38:37.or at least attempting to, He's not always right of course,
:38:38. > :38:41.and pollsters in general have come So do you know an online poll
:38:42. > :38:45.from a phone poll? What's the point of them,
:38:46. > :38:48.and why are there so many These pollsters are talking
:38:49. > :38:52.to people like you. Do you intend to vote
:38:53. > :38:54.Labour, Liberal Democrat, Conservative or for
:38:55. > :38:57.another candidate? Politicians and journalists
:38:58. > :38:59.are often obsessed with political They shouldn't be, and the public
:39:00. > :39:05.aren't, but they remain part of the fabric of politics,
:39:06. > :39:08.despite being a fraction The general philosophy
:39:09. > :39:12.of polling is a Thoroughly mixed, it shouldn't be
:39:13. > :39:21.necessary to sample the whole bowl to know exactly what it's
:39:22. > :39:25.like or made of, but you've got to take a decent spoonful
:39:26. > :39:27.and the ballpark figure for most pollsters is between
:39:28. > :39:31.1000 and 2000 people. For many years, polling
:39:32. > :39:38.involved doing this - door-to-door, face-to-face
:39:39. > :39:40.conversations. People randomly sourced, visited and
:39:41. > :39:41.followed up. Now, one reason why people don't use
:39:42. > :39:51.face-to-face any more is because it's incredibly
:39:52. > :39:55.time-consuming and the fact is that people's opinions
:39:56. > :39:58.can change whilst it takes time These days things are much more
:39:59. > :40:01.rapid and, of course, they are using technology,
:40:02. > :40:04.albeit some of it not that modern. Yes, can I ask you a few questions
:40:05. > :40:19.about telephone polling? We at ComRes use it
:40:20. > :40:32.for all our election work, which is quota sampling,
:40:33. > :40:36.so we know we need the right amount of men, women, different age groups,
:40:37. > :40:40.regions of the country, and we randomly dial numbers
:40:41. > :40:42.until we get those exact numbers, to reflect
:40:43. > :40:44.the population as a whole. There is a new way of doing
:40:45. > :40:51.things - online polling. Now, this is a page
:40:52. > :40:53.from the website of Here is a poll I can
:40:54. > :40:57.take part in right now But that's not quite what we mean
:40:58. > :41:03.because this is self-selecting. I'm not necessarily
:41:04. > :41:04.representative of After all, I'm a guy
:41:05. > :41:08.who's got a rubber duck No, this is what you
:41:09. > :41:16.want to look at, the panels, because they have panels
:41:17. > :41:18.of people that they go to repetitively to find
:41:19. > :41:21.out what they think - between the random selection
:41:22. > :41:24.of using the phone. The biggest obvious
:41:25. > :41:27.issue at the moment is the EU referendum,
:41:28. > :41:30.where telephone polls are showing a large lead for "remain",
:41:31. > :41:31.whereas online polls are showing
:41:32. > :41:34.the race neck and neck. We've conducted an experiment
:41:35. > :41:37.conducting the same question, exactly the same, both online
:41:38. > :41:40.and telephone and have found that same difference,
:41:41. > :41:42.that the telephone poll So we've tried to understand
:41:43. > :41:45.that difference, whether it's about the type
:41:46. > :41:48.of people that we're interviewing, who they are, why they might be
:41:49. > :41:51.answering differently. Therein lies the quirks
:41:52. > :41:53.of polling and pollsters now are not the only
:41:54. > :41:56.kid on the block. If you want to know
:41:57. > :42:03.what's going to happen in an election some weeks,
:42:04. > :42:06.some months, maybe even some years away, I think your best bet
:42:07. > :42:09.is to look at a specific prediction market - and a prediction
:42:10. > :42:11.market where money is involved, that really
:42:12. > :42:13.keeps people honest, so we're talking about
:42:14. > :42:14.betting markets here. They, I still think,
:42:15. > :42:17.are a very, very good guide to what's going
:42:18. > :42:19.to happen in the future. And it's a safe bet us politicos
:42:20. > :42:23.will still be looking at both. And with us from Southampton,
:42:24. > :42:35.Professor Patricik Sturgis, We will be with you in just a
:42:36. > :42:39.moment. Peter, the final YouGov poll had Labour and the Tories pegging
:42:40. > :42:45.before the last election, what was your reaction when you saw the
:42:46. > :42:50.result? Probably not a word I would use on daytime television. All the
:42:51. > :42:55.polls, telephone or online, we all made the same mistake. In that case
:42:56. > :43:01.there was not a methodological difference. As Tom says on the EU at
:43:02. > :43:09.the moment there is. I was not a happy bunny at 10pm election night.
:43:10. > :43:13.The MP for Pudsey who said he would have lost his seat if the
:43:14. > :43:17.predictions have been right, he said if anybody else failed so miserably,
:43:18. > :43:22.they would be sacked or be considering their position. Did you
:43:23. > :43:30.think about it? Knows. Would you have -- should you have done? That
:43:31. > :43:34.is not for us to say. Pollsters got something is wrong in the election.
:43:35. > :43:37.I'm not sure every politician or journalist was perfect with the
:43:38. > :43:43.truth. And since the election people across the polling community have
:43:44. > :43:47.undertaken the very serious business of finding out what went wrong. We
:43:48. > :43:53.have looked into our failings far more than the journalist or
:43:54. > :43:58.political communities have. Patrick, do you think they have listened, has
:43:59. > :44:02.there been this soul-searching Peter is talking about? I think there has.
:44:03. > :44:08.They have already been looking at some new procedures and so on.
:44:09. > :44:11.That's undoubtedly going to go on and I would be expecting them to be
:44:12. > :44:15.looking at the recommendations we make in our report that will be
:44:16. > :44:18.published in about a week. I think it is also worth bearing in mind,
:44:19. > :44:25.we've been focusing on where the polls went wrong, but the polls were
:44:26. > :44:30.also right in a number of respects. They were almost exactly correct in
:44:31. > :44:37.terms of the shares of the smaller parties. And if you go back from not
:44:38. > :44:42.just the days and weeks before the election, over the entire
:44:43. > :44:46.parliament, they told the story of the electoral dynamic, the decline
:44:47. > :44:50.in support for the Lib Dems, the increase for Ukip and so on. These
:44:51. > :44:54.are all things we would not have known without the polls. So I think
:44:55. > :44:57.it is important to keep things in perspective when we are assessing
:44:58. > :45:00.how accurate they were. Of course they did get the key thing wrong
:45:01. > :45:05.which was the difference between Labour and Conservatives and that
:45:06. > :45:10.was where the attention was rightly focused. What about the methodology,
:45:11. > :45:13.though? There are different techniques as demonstrated in the
:45:14. > :45:19.film by Giles. Are some more reliable than others?
:45:20. > :45:23.If you are just talking about the difference between online and phone,
:45:24. > :45:28.it is quite difficult to come to a proper judgment about that. The
:45:29. > :45:33.polls right before the 2015 election, there was no difference in
:45:34. > :45:37.the final polls between phone and online. If you go back a bit further
:45:38. > :45:41.in the campaign and in the parliament, you do see that the
:45:42. > :45:46.phone polls were giving a point or two higher in Conservative support.
:45:47. > :45:49.Now, we don't know if that was accurate or not because we don't
:45:50. > :45:57.have the barometer of the election results. I think it's not
:45:58. > :46:01.unreasonable to assume that given that the polls have historically
:46:02. > :46:05.underestimated the Conservative share that the phone polls were
:46:06. > :46:09.doing perhaps slightly better. But the problem is, we genuinely don't
:46:10. > :46:15.know what the true picture is until we have an election. We haven't got
:46:16. > :46:19.the EU referendum result. We'll come to the EU referendum in a minute. To
:46:20. > :46:23.go back to 2015, was there such a thing as shy Tories or was that just
:46:24. > :46:32.a convenient cover for polling errors? I'm going to ask me to this
:46:33. > :46:35.question. I'm accepting it but I'm putting a slightly different gloss
:46:36. > :46:40.on it. I think there were some people last year, as in 1992, when
:46:41. > :46:42.the polls got it wrong, when John Major remained Prime Minister and
:46:43. > :46:47.the polls said Neil can it would become Prime Minister, I think then,
:46:48. > :46:52.as last year, some people really didn't want the Conservatives to
:46:53. > :46:57.remain in office and when asked by a pollster they'd say, "I don't know
:46:58. > :47:00.the Tories, I'll vote Labour". That was their initial or expressive
:47:01. > :47:06.view. When they came to cast their votes in the ballots, at the polling
:47:07. > :47:10.station, they said, "I'm not sure I want to make that particular the
:47:11. > :47:12.Bovo the edge," because although they did neither Conservatives they
:47:13. > :47:17.didn't trust Labour on Labour's leader. I'm not saying that was the
:47:18. > :47:21.whole explanation. I think it was perhaps a quarter or a third of it
:47:22. > :47:25.but that factor was there. How confident are you about polling
:47:26. > :47:31.leading up to the EU referendum? Ask me on June the 24th. Let me give you
:47:32. > :47:35.a serious answer. There is cleared of his between telephone and online
:47:36. > :47:42.polls. Historically I can of two contests weather has a diverging. In
:47:43. > :47:47.2008 in London, we at YouGov online said Boris Johnson was going to beat
:47:48. > :47:52.Ken Livingstone. All the telephone poles said Ken Livingstone was going
:47:53. > :47:55.to win. Online was right on that occasion, telephone was wrong. In
:47:56. > :48:01.2011, the alternative vote referendum, we all said we were
:48:02. > :48:04.going to vote overwhelmingly to keep the present voting system but the
:48:05. > :48:12.telephone poles were a bit nearer than the online polls. So
:48:13. > :48:13.historically it was a 1-1 draw. Patrick Sturgess in Southampton,
:48:14. > :48:16.thank you very much. And now for something
:48:17. > :48:24.completely different. And now on the Daily Politics, it's
:48:25. > :48:28.Peter Kellner's greatest hits. At number five, speculation about the
:48:29. > :48:33.1987 election and a hung parliament. If there is a hung parliament, the
:48:34. > :48:37.first thing that will happen is that Mrs Thatcher would resign as the
:48:38. > :48:42.Conservative Party leader. In those circumstances, the Conservative
:48:43. > :48:47.Party would be in the position of a menorah TV Labour government. At
:48:48. > :48:51.number four, he predicted the results of the 1990 local elections.
:48:52. > :48:54.Unless the government gets a big swing back in the next four weeks,
:48:55. > :49:00.the Conservatives are going to wake up on the morning of May the 4th and
:49:01. > :49:04.say, crikey, what on earth as it is? I think the Conservatives, Mrs
:49:05. > :49:08.Thatcher in particular, will be needing some good news by July the
:49:09. > :49:12.latest. Six months later, Margaret Thatcher resigned as PM. At number
:49:13. > :49:16.three, on the money with the Scottish referendum... There has
:49:17. > :49:20.been a clear shift today, a small but clear shift, from yes to know
:49:21. > :49:23.and we also think that the no voters in the end were slightly more
:49:24. > :49:28.determined to turn out that the yes voters. At number two, how the polls
:49:29. > :49:34.can be widely wrong. The Conservative win in 1992. I'm not
:49:35. > :49:40.alone, thank goodness, in getting it wrong. The polls were all wrong. And
:49:41. > :49:48.number one, why you should all care about polls. Opinion polls provide
:49:49. > :49:52.the best, most objective source of information about an election
:49:53. > :50:00.campaign which is not controlled by the political parties. Peter was
:50:01. > :50:01.really enjoying that! Yes, our Peter here has been around
:50:02. > :50:04.the Westminster village for rather And at the end of this month
:50:05. > :50:15.he hangs up his YouGov hat. Lets focus on your career, looking
:50:16. > :50:21.back. We're not doing your obituary here! What to consider your greatest
:50:22. > :50:24.pulling Triumph? The biggest triumph, because we were running
:50:25. > :50:32.against other pollsters, was 2008 when we said we were polling and we
:50:33. > :50:34.always had Boris Johnson in the lead and the other polls always had
:50:35. > :50:38.Kennedy still in the lead. Ken Livingstone complained saying,
:50:39. > :50:44.YouGov brings falling into distribute. That campaign somehow
:50:45. > :50:49.went away. Are pollsters competitive? Yes but there is also a
:50:50. > :50:58.degree of camaraderie. When it goes wrong? Not only that. We have our
:50:59. > :51:03.own rules which we have set ourselves for transparency. In
:51:04. > :51:07.Britain more than any other country in the world, anybody can go onto
:51:08. > :51:10.the website of any pollster and get the full tables, the full
:51:11. > :51:15.methodological details, the full question wording is. We are as an
:51:16. > :51:18.industry, and we've come to this together, much more open than
:51:19. > :51:22.anywhere else in the world and I'm proud of that. Will you jealous of
:51:23. > :51:27.John Curtice when he was lauded for his stunningly answer it -- accurate
:51:28. > :51:32.exit poll? I've known John for many years and the exit poll was very
:51:33. > :51:37.good but as we saw there, we got the Scottish referendum right, we got
:51:38. > :51:42.the Labour leadership right and people thought we got out of our
:51:43. > :51:47.minds. At the previous general election, we had the Tory lead in
:51:48. > :51:52.2010 spot on, 2005 was very good 2001 was very good. The euro
:51:53. > :51:56.elections a couple of years ago, we were pretty well spot on. So yes,
:51:57. > :52:03.we've got something is wrong but we've got many more things right
:52:04. > :52:07.than wrong. Let's go back. In 1981 BST people do over 50 present. Did
:52:08. > :52:12.you think they were on the brink of power? I wasn't sure but I was then
:52:13. > :52:19.on the New Statesman and when I saw those poll figures, it was before I
:52:20. > :52:22.was a pollster and I started a thing in the New Statesman of covering all
:52:23. > :52:27.the local election results week after week and most weeks there were
:52:28. > :52:33.four, five, six local by-elections and we found in the summer of 1981
:52:34. > :52:42.that yes, indeed, where the STV were standing there were getting 40 or 50
:52:43. > :52:46.present. Our groovy SDP. It didn't last but the Conservatives were in
:52:47. > :52:50.trouble, the Connery was doing badly, Michael foot was leader of
:52:51. > :52:56.the Labour Party. -- the economy was doing badly. Are you going to be a
:52:57. > :53:00.commentator, speak freely, give us your personal opinions on politics?
:53:01. > :53:05.I'm available for the political equivalent of birth, marriage, bar
:53:06. > :53:09.mitzvahs. I'm hoping to come here quite a lot more. You will be
:53:10. > :53:15.speaking freely with your opinions? I'm available. Pollsters are like
:53:16. > :53:19.barristers, prostitutes and taxi drivers. We ply for hire. I will
:53:20. > :53:22.continue to apply for higher after I leave YouGov. Thank you for that
:53:23. > :53:24.interesting image at the end! Courtesy of our friends
:53:25. > :53:27.at the Mirror, we now know who the MPs are that use
:53:28. > :53:29.Twitter the most and least Out of the 650 MPs,
:53:30. > :53:34.the Labour MP for Ilford North, Wes Streeting,
:53:35. > :53:36.is the Commons' most prolific tweeter, having tweeted 68,800
:53:37. > :53:43.tweets and counting. Tim Farron, the leader
:53:44. > :53:45.of the Liberal Democrats, is the second most prolific tweeter
:53:46. > :53:58.in the House of Commons, with 67,600 posts since he joined
:53:59. > :54:00.the micro-blogging site. Stella Creasy is the Commons' third
:54:01. > :54:02.most prolific tweeter with that amounts to one post every 44
:54:03. > :54:06.minutes since she joined Jamie Reed comes in at fourth
:54:07. > :54:15.place with 57,600 tweets. Eight of the top ten most prolific
:54:16. > :54:19.tweeters are Labour MPs. The top-tweeting Tory,
:54:20. > :54:22.in tenth place, is Karl McCartney At the other end of the table,
:54:23. > :54:31.Paul Beresford - Tory MP for Mole Valley -
:54:32. > :54:37.has tweeted just once. as well as Demos's social media
:54:38. > :54:52.research director Carl Miller. Please don't ask B to repeat any of
:54:53. > :54:55.those numbers again! Jamie Reed, you have treated 57,600 post-I've
:54:56. > :55:00.distributed at - and counting. Are you addicted? Not at all. It is a
:55:01. > :55:03.really good way to get your message out to people and do what politician
:55:04. > :55:06.should be doing, which is holding a dialogue with as many people as
:55:07. > :55:10.possible. I sometimes wonder why people get so hung up on this phrase
:55:11. > :55:14.addiction. It takes ten seconds to send a tweet and that's it, it goes
:55:15. > :55:17.into the ether and you hear the sound of breaking glass and it is
:55:18. > :55:21.either gone down well or have gone down well. That's the addiction bit,
:55:22. > :55:27.the reaction. How many people have looked at it, retweeted it. I think
:55:28. > :55:32.that's the same with any political message you are trying to get over.
:55:33. > :55:36.When did we see a step change in the Twitter usage? I think it was Barack
:55:37. > :55:41.Obama's election victories in 2008 and 2012. I think politicians around
:55:42. > :55:45.the world knew that social media was the new battle ground and was going
:55:46. > :55:48.to be the new crucial way of fighting for power and was going to
:55:49. > :55:52.be a place they needed to be on and they needed a picture on there and
:55:53. > :55:55.they knew their parents would be there if they weren't. Was it really
:55:56. > :56:00.won by social media in 2015? I don't think so. I think future elections
:56:01. > :56:05.might be because I think parties will start to behave differently but
:56:06. > :56:09.so far, no, I don't think they have as much influence as some people
:56:10. > :56:13.say. We are seeing a vital shift. For young people, social media,
:56:14. > :56:17.according to polls, was the second most important thing they made their
:56:18. > :56:20.decision on who to vote for after the TV debate. As new generations
:56:21. > :56:24.come into the letter it, social media is going to become more
:56:25. > :56:29.important. Eight of the top ten are Labour MPs. Why do you think that
:56:30. > :56:33.is? If I'm being entirely honest, I think it's because Labour MPs are
:56:34. > :56:36.more plugged into modernity and the Conservative MPs are not and I think
:56:37. > :56:39.that's part of the cultural brands of both parties. I think you will
:56:40. > :56:43.find Labour MPs doing more on Twitter, Facebook and blogging and
:56:44. > :56:55.flogging and other initiatives which are coming forward. -- vlogging. In
:56:56. > :56:58.2008, it was not a Twitter election. Why did it work for Obama and not
:56:59. > :57:04.the Labour? I think they used Twitter as a key data gathering
:57:05. > :57:08.device. If you look at the last general election and how many Labour
:57:09. > :57:11.people had their hopes dashed, they believed what they were reading on
:57:12. > :57:17.Twitter. That's the point, it's an echo chamber. In that sense, maybe
:57:18. > :57:23.that was partly why Labour didn't win in the end. I think it's a
:57:24. > :57:27.factor. Do you think it's true that they are more modern, in terms of
:57:28. > :57:31.their usage, Labour MPs, of social media than the Tories? I certainly
:57:32. > :57:35.think there was a distinct difference between the strategy
:57:36. > :57:39.would win the Labour and the Tories. Party activists wanted to use
:57:40. > :57:45.platforms like Twitter to leveraged their numbers. We see targeted
:57:46. > :57:50.messaging to reach people. An important point about platforms like
:57:51. > :57:53.Twitter is you will never hear it would rob from the floating voter.
:57:54. > :57:59.You hear from the excited party faithful. Those are the people who
:58:00. > :58:06.are bothering enough to tweet in the first place. They follow MPs and
:58:07. > :58:10.reply. Do you treat? I'm told I got about 57 followers but I've ever
:58:11. > :58:16.said to tweet in my life. Have you got an account? Are you sure it is
:58:17. > :58:23.you they are following? No, I don't. Should you be for your new career?
:58:24. > :58:26.Possibly. I'll think about that. You can tweet about the programme as
:58:27. > :58:29.much as you like and how wonderful the presenters are! Thank you.
:58:30. > :58:32.There's just time before we go to find out the answer to our quiz.
:58:33. > :58:35.The question was, which of these future prime ministers scored
:58:36. > :58:37.the highest net approval ratings when they were in opposition?
:58:38. > :58:44.So, Peter Kellner, what's the correct answer?
:58:45. > :58:49.I think it was Tony Blair, who was incredible popular before 1997. One
:58:50. > :58:53.of his staff are said to me, my job is to provide the water that only
:58:54. > :58:55.walks on. But you were wrong. Everyone will assume it was Tony
:58:56. > :58:58.Blair but it was Edward Heath. Something for you to ponder! You get
:58:59. > :59:02.it wrong again. Sorry about that.