:00:37. > :00:40.Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics.
:00:41. > :00:43.36 people are killed in a bomb attack in the Turkish capital
:00:44. > :00:49.Is the country in any position to help solve the EU migrant crisis?
:00:50. > :00:52.What's the relationship between the Labour's candidate
:00:53. > :00:56.for Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, and Babar Ahmad?
:00:57. > :00:58.The so-called cyber-jihadist speaks about their relationship
:00:59. > :01:10.Why Tories who voted to remain in 1975 are campaigning to leave,
:01:11. > :01:13.and Labour leavers in '75 are now for remain.
:01:14. > :01:15.And I ask Boris Johnson what his chances are
:01:16. > :01:18.You had a greater chance of being reincarnated as an olive...
:01:19. > :01:21.You remember, than you did about being
:01:22. > :01:25.Or a baked bean, or decapitated by Frisbee or locked
:01:26. > :01:38.And with us for the duration today, a former Europe Minister,
:01:39. > :01:41.And the Conservative MP, Graham Brady, who was once
:01:42. > :01:48.First this morning, 36 people have been killed in a suicide car bomb
:01:49. > :01:52.attack in the Turkish capital, Ankara.
:01:53. > :01:54.The bomb went off last night outside the main railway station
:01:55. > :02:05.The Turkish government are already pointing the finger at the outlawed
:02:06. > :02:09.One of the dead is said to be a known PKK militant.
:02:10. > :02:13.Last month, a bomb attack on a military convoy in Ankara
:02:14. > :02:17.killed 28 people and wounded dozens more, and in October more than 100
:02:18. > :02:24.people were killed at a peace rally in the city.
:02:25. > :02:32.Caroline Flint, how dangerous this unrest in Turkey for the rest of us?
:02:33. > :02:36.It is obviously very concerning pickers as well as these attacks we
:02:37. > :02:40.know that Turkey is obviously dealing with millions of refugees
:02:41. > :02:46.coming through their borders as well. And what is so sad for Turkey,
:02:47. > :02:50.too, and I've holidayed there many times, in fact I was there last
:02:51. > :02:54.summer, is the huge impact these things have not just in terms of a
:02:55. > :02:59.loss for the people involved are also on Turkey's economy. But the
:03:00. > :03:03.problem for Turkey and in some ways then relying on Turkey to stop the
:03:04. > :03:08.migrant crisis is that they are fighting a war on two fronts. They
:03:09. > :03:13.are still fighting an old and ongoing battle with the PKK and they
:03:14. > :03:17.are also part of this coalition to fight IS, are they really in a
:03:18. > :03:22.position to help us fight the migrant crisis? We have to depend on
:03:23. > :03:26.a working Turkey. Turkey is a critically important power in the
:03:27. > :03:31.region. In terms of helping with what is going on in Syria and other
:03:32. > :03:35.parts, but also our front line on the migrant crisis. Should we be
:03:36. > :03:39.relying on them and is this deal going to stick? The deal is another
:03:40. > :03:45.matter and I don't think the deal is going to make much difference. The
:03:46. > :03:49.fact is with one in, one outcome you do not discourage people from coming
:03:50. > :03:52.you are just providing a different dynamic in that same traffic. We
:03:53. > :03:57.don't really have an alternative, do we? We do have to work with Turkey
:03:58. > :04:01.because they are dealing with millions of refugees. Not only in
:04:02. > :04:05.terms of within Turkey but also the problem of traffickers taking people
:04:06. > :04:08.out of Turkey and into Greece as well. It is absolutely right that
:04:09. > :04:13.the government and other EU nations should be having this discussion.
:04:14. > :04:17.What the final deal will look like is yet to be negotiated. Do you
:04:18. > :04:25.think it will be done on Thursday? I don't know whether it will be done
:04:26. > :04:27.on Thursday but it will not be resolved, the problem will not be
:04:28. > :04:30.resolved until the EU recognises that free movement of people cannot
:04:31. > :04:34.underpin relationships between 28 countries across the continent of
:04:35. > :04:39.Europe. Realistically that's over anyway, freedom of movement for a
:04:40. > :04:44.lot of countries. Are you supporting the idea it should go altogether? A
:04:45. > :04:49.lot of European politicians say it is core to what they believe in. If
:04:50. > :04:53.people recognised it was over we might have a more meaningful
:04:54. > :04:57.negotiations. Is that the solution, to actually state officially that
:04:58. > :05:00.freedom of movement of people is over, as people have been erecting
:05:01. > :05:04.fences and walls to try to stop migrants coming through? Free
:05:05. > :05:07.movement does not mean a free for all, there are limitations on who
:05:08. > :05:12.can come into different parts of the EU and we are part of, we are not
:05:13. > :05:18.part of the Shannon zone so we will not be changing it any time soon.
:05:19. > :05:21.There is a recognition that the external borders of the EU need to
:05:22. > :05:24.be stronger than they are, and clearly what Angela Merkel said
:05:25. > :05:30.which is a sister party to Graham's in the last few months hasn't helped
:05:31. > :05:33.the situation and she is paying the price in the polls. Done very badly
:05:34. > :05:40.in those elections that have just happened. David Cameron said in 2014
:05:41. > :05:45.that he still would like Turkey to join the EU. Do you think he still
:05:46. > :05:48.feels like that? I don't know, but Britain has always been a strong
:05:49. > :05:52.supporter of the idea of Turkey joining the EU. I always used to say
:05:53. > :05:55.when I was shadowing Europe that can never happen until we have a very
:05:56. > :06:02.different kind of European Union, one that had updated concepts on
:06:03. > :06:04.open borders and so on. Let's hear what George Osborne had to say on
:06:05. > :06:06.this subject yesterday. We have a veto over
:06:07. > :06:08.whether Turkey joins or not. We have set conditions and we have
:06:09. > :06:13.made it absolutely clear that we will not accept new member
:06:14. > :06:15.states to the European Union and give them unfettered
:06:16. > :06:17.free movement of people unless their economies
:06:18. > :06:19.are much closer in size So Britain would block
:06:20. > :06:23.Turkish accession? We are absolutely clear that
:06:24. > :06:27.while countries might or might not accede, we have to make that
:06:28. > :06:29.decision at the time, they would only have free movement
:06:30. > :06:42.of people if the economies Is he right at the moment? Should it
:06:43. > :06:47.be something that would be put on hold? Would you want to see a veto
:06:48. > :06:51.exercised if, in talks on accession, the deal was that Turkey could
:06:52. > :06:56.quicken up its chances to become a member of the EU? That is part of
:06:57. > :07:00.Turkey's negotiation gambit in all this. To be honest I don't think
:07:01. > :07:05.there is any sign any time soon that Turkey will be part of the EU. As a
:07:06. > :07:08.country that wants to be it already has certain rights to trade and work
:07:09. > :07:12.with us but those rights are based on what we expect them to do. Apart
:07:13. > :07:16.from a whole number of other things, the other week we saw that a
:07:17. > :07:20.newspaper was shut down in Turkey. Beyond the economic side of things,
:07:21. > :07:24.part of being part of the EU is about freedom of speech, a free
:07:25. > :07:29.press and other things as well. Not just about Turkey but any country, I
:07:30. > :07:35.would say it has never been harder to become a member of the EU. If
:07:36. > :07:39.some of the tests were applied to day were applied before, there may
:07:40. > :07:43.be fewer countries in the EU. But Visa free travel for text has been
:07:44. > :07:46.discussed because there has to be a quid pro quo, and you can understand
:07:47. > :07:50.why Turkey would drive a hard bargain, they are the ones on the
:07:51. > :07:54.front line. Is it a price worth paying in order to get Turkey to
:07:55. > :07:58.deal with, to some extent, the flow of Syrian refugees and migrants? It
:07:59. > :08:02.doesn't work, Britain couldn't deliver it, neither could the French
:08:03. > :08:05.or Germans. We have seen how the German electorate are responding to
:08:06. > :08:09.the open borders policy Angela Merkel has had. It is something
:08:10. > :08:13.people on the continent of Europe have had enough of. People expect
:08:14. > :08:18.countries to restore control of the borders and to control the flows of
:08:19. > :08:23.migrants. Fundamentally it is not possible to do that while you are in
:08:24. > :08:25.the EU. We will come onto the EU in just a moment.
:08:26. > :08:30.Who or what did George Osborne ask to "keep it down"
:08:31. > :08:35.while he was writing his Budget in the House of Commons yesterday?
:08:36. > :08:39.Was it a) noisy protesters, b) squeaky House of Commons mice,
:08:40. > :08:45.or d) Top Gear, who were filming outside?
:08:46. > :08:48.At the end of the show, Caroline and Graham will give us
:08:49. > :08:57.Now, there have lots of questions in the media in recent weeks
:08:58. > :08:59.about the relationship between Labour's candidate
:09:00. > :09:02.for London Mayor, Sadiq Khan, and Babar Ahmad, the man known
:09:03. > :09:09.In an exclusive interview for the Victoria Derbyshire
:09:10. > :09:11.programme, Ahmad has talked for the first time about the nature
:09:12. > :09:30.In 2014, a US court sentenced Babar to 12.5 years in prison
:09:31. > :09:31.after admitting supporting terrorism.
:09:32. > :09:33.He and others ran an influential online operation, Azzam.com,
:09:34. > :09:35.propagating armed jihadist ideology from the late 1990s,
:09:36. > :09:39.Babar had spent 10 years in a British jail fighting
:09:40. > :09:44.During this time, Sadiq Khan met Mr Ahmad in jail and took
:09:45. > :09:49.The Labour MP for Tooting says he did this is his role
:09:50. > :09:52.as a constituency MP but acknowledges that he and Babar Ahmad
:09:53. > :10:00.In today's interview, Ahmad says he was "naive" to show
:10:01. > :10:02.support for the Taliban and had this to say about his relationship
:10:03. > :10:11.Sadiq Khan, he gave the same level of support to me that Zac Goldsmith
:10:12. > :10:15.and Boris Johnson said, which is basically that as a British
:10:16. > :10:17.citizen accused of crimes committed in this country,
:10:18. > :10:21.Was he visiting you as a friend, or a constituency MP?
:10:22. > :10:27.He was visiting me as a constituency MP.
:10:28. > :10:33.My family, and lots of people here in Tooting, they told him
:10:34. > :10:37.to come and visit me and he just came to visit me and see how I was.
:10:38. > :10:40.In my community, anyone who is not your enemy
:10:41. > :10:43.is a friend so in that sense, he is my friend.
:10:44. > :10:46.But I've never socialised with him or gone out to eat with him,
:10:47. > :10:51.He is probably an acquaintance more than a friend.
:10:52. > :10:57.How close were you before you were arrested in December 2003?
:10:58. > :11:02.I mean, Tooting is a small community.
:11:03. > :11:05.I remember every Saturday, he used to be standing at a stall
:11:06. > :11:07.for the Labour Party on Tooting High Street.
:11:08. > :11:11.If I saw him, I would go up to him and shake his hand.
:11:12. > :11:15.He is just someone that I knew, walking on the streets.
:11:16. > :11:19.In an interview in the last few days, Sadiq Khan said about you,
:11:20. > :11:22."We were not close friends but we knew each other growing up".
:11:23. > :11:27.Have you met him since you arrived back in Britain in the last few
:11:28. > :11:32.Yes, I was travelling home one night on the tube with my lawyer
:11:33. > :11:34.and I bumped into him and shook his hand.
:11:35. > :11:37.You can watch the whole of that interview on the Victoria Derbyshire
:11:38. > :11:45.We asked for an interview with Sadiq Khan or one of his team,
:11:46. > :11:49.But we're joined now by Davis Lewin from the Foreign Policy Think Tank,
:11:50. > :11:55.What is your specific accusation against Sadiq Khan Chris Green we
:11:56. > :12:03.have to look at there is a matter of grave national
:12:04. > :12:08.security here with Babar Ahmad, many of whose assertions are open to
:12:09. > :12:11.significant challenge in terms of the interview he has given. No
:12:12. > :12:14.politician should have a relationship with a man such as
:12:15. > :12:19.this, certainly not campaigning for him in that way. I think there are
:12:20. > :12:26.some specific pieces that I question when it comes to Sadiq Khan and his
:12:27. > :12:28.past activities with Mr Ahmad. I think the most obvious one is the
:12:29. > :12:34.Rose report in which it is abundantly clear that Mr Khan had
:12:35. > :12:38.been registered to visit Mr Ahmad in prison as a friend long before he
:12:39. > :12:43.had been elected as an MP in that way. You say that no politician
:12:44. > :12:47.should ever have a relationship with someone like Babar Ahmad, but in the
:12:48. > :12:55.Sadiq Khan statement he says, he made it very clear that he was never
:12:56. > :13:00.a friend of Babar Ahmad's. He was a constituency MP, and that is when he
:13:01. > :13:03.visited Babar Ahmad, to represent him as a constituent, and Babar
:13:04. > :13:07.Ahmad has confirmed that is true. About Ahmad said in his interview
:13:08. > :13:14.that he received as much support from Zac Goldsmith and Boris Johnson
:13:15. > :13:18.as he did from Sadiq Khan, so what is the specific allegation apart
:13:19. > :13:22.from the fact that you perhaps don't like the fact that he visited him in
:13:23. > :13:26.jail? These are two completely different relationships. If we look
:13:27. > :13:31.at what the various politicians have done, there have been these claims,
:13:32. > :13:35.conservative politicians, Labour politicians meet with bad people, in
:13:36. > :13:39.the room with bad people and so forth. We have a clear case of a
:13:40. > :13:44.politician, it was not when he was an MP, it was before he was an MP,
:13:45. > :13:49.the police made that clear in their statement, he went to visit him as a
:13:50. > :13:51.friend, registered as a friend before that. The sister of Babar
:13:52. > :13:55.Ahmad is on the record as saying they were friends. We need to
:13:56. > :14:01.specify what you mean by friend. Because it is important, semantics
:14:02. > :14:05.and language here are very important. As we heard from Babar
:14:06. > :14:10.Ahmad in the interview he said, yes, we were friends because we were not
:14:11. > :14:13.enemies. They knew each other as childhood mates, they did not
:14:14. > :14:16.socialise together. They were not friends in the way that you might be
:14:17. > :14:21.with people that you see on a regular basis, do you accept that?
:14:22. > :14:26.If you have a convicted terrorist who, at the time sitting awaiting
:14:27. > :14:29.extradition, and he is being visited, and there is an
:14:30. > :14:32.extraordinarily clear protocol about who can visit under what
:14:33. > :14:35.circumstances, then I think the French bracket mean something. If
:14:36. > :14:41.you are registered to visit as a friend, this is not a generic term
:14:42. > :14:45.in that way, it is a specific thing. If I may say, Sadiq Khan wrote the
:14:46. > :14:50.foreword to a report that made outrageous claims, Franco propaganda
:14:51. > :14:58.as far as I am concerned, about the impact the Babar Ahmad case had on
:14:59. > :15:00.radicalisation in Britain, it had people like extremists even the
:15:01. > :15:04.Prime Minister has called out in it, in which he said he had known him
:15:05. > :15:10.for 15 years and he was a supporter of him. Let's look at the approved
:15:11. > :15:12.visitors scheme. It exempts a number of categories including legal
:15:13. > :15:16.advisers of categories including legal
:15:17. > :15:20.of Parliament, which would have prevented Sadiq Khan going as an MP,
:15:21. > :15:25.which is perhaps why the category of friend stayed rather than changed to
:15:26. > :15:29.be an MP because he would not have been able to visit him and he wanted
:15:30. > :15:33.to, because he was trying to fight extradition, which Boris Johnson was
:15:34. > :15:34.also doing. I do not see the differentiation between Boris
:15:35. > :15:42.Johnson and Sadiq Khan. This happened before he was an MP.
:15:43. > :15:46.When the police spoke to him, it was before he was elected as an MP which
:15:47. > :15:50.was later in the year. The interviews in the report before that
:15:51. > :15:53.and the police make clear he was forthcoming about it and it refers
:15:54. > :15:57.to a friend and a childhood friend and whatever else in that way. But
:15:58. > :16:01.there is a much broader issue at play. It is an extraordinarily grave
:16:02. > :16:05.issue of national security. This man is a convicted terrorist, there are
:16:06. > :16:08.no questions about no matter how they try to spin the interview or
:16:09. > :16:11.what happens in terms of seeking to make all sorts of claims about
:16:12. > :16:14.America and I don't know what an Sadiq Khan was one of the
:16:15. > :16:18.campaigners, among others, among some unsavoury groups, that had
:16:19. > :16:22.tried to paint this in a very different light. The categorical
:16:23. > :16:27.judgment of the US court, and this is absolutely clear, there can be no
:16:28. > :16:31.doubt he is a convicted terrorist. Why does it imply that Sadiq Khan
:16:32. > :16:35.had any sympathy for his views? He categorically state he did not, he
:16:36. > :16:40.did not support anything Babar Ahmad was accused of and later charged. He
:16:41. > :16:44.was representing him to some extent in the legal capacity. Yes, the term
:16:45. > :16:50.friend has been disputed, and then as an MP. There is nothing there
:16:51. > :16:54.that suggest Sadiq Khan sympathised, supported or had any connection with
:16:55. > :16:58.what Babar Ahmad was doing or has done since. You will have two asking
:16:59. > :17:01.yourself what exactly the relationship was and clearly he's
:17:02. > :17:06.not happy to come and tell you. Except he has said categorically
:17:07. > :17:09.they were not friends. Is he lying? I don't know if that is the right
:17:10. > :17:13.word. I know there are questions about the relation ship and I know
:17:14. > :17:25.the Rose report is clear about using the word friends. However, will say
:17:26. > :17:27.again, it's a matter of grave national security concern and one
:17:28. > :17:29.has to understand what the relationship was and we need to
:17:30. > :17:31.understand exactly why a politician would be in a relationship of that
:17:32. > :17:34.kind, supporting someone who ends up a convicted terrorist. Caroline
:17:35. > :17:36.Flint, do you accept that Sadiq Khan to be more forthcoming about the
:17:37. > :17:39.relationship? He has not come on today and not been as open and frank
:17:40. > :17:42.as he could be about the relationship or not that he had with
:17:43. > :17:46.Babar Ahmad. I think he's been very open. He can't come here because
:17:47. > :17:50.he's doing a visit in Bromley as part of his campaign but he has been
:17:51. > :17:54.open about this. To say something about this, before he was an MP,
:17:55. > :18:00.Sadiq Khan was a lawyer, involved with lots of human rights
:18:01. > :18:02.organisations and just like Zac Goldsmith and Boris Johnson, the
:18:03. > :18:05.three of them were against the changes to the extradition treaty
:18:06. > :18:09.between the UK and the US. That is why all three of them, in different
:18:10. > :18:12.ways, were questioning the detainment of this gentleman because
:18:13. > :18:19.he was being detained without trial pending extradition. Do you accept
:18:20. > :18:23.they were friends? No, I don't. But he did visit Babar Ahmad in the
:18:24. > :18:26.category of friend. As you pointed out, in order to get a visit, these
:18:27. > :18:36.things are about filling in forms and what have you. What I think is
:18:37. > :18:39.clear is that the man himself as they are not friends, since he's
:18:40. > :18:42.been back, he bumped into him on the tube late at night and I think there
:18:43. > :18:44.was something else when there was a community thing. Just to talk about
:18:45. > :18:47.Sadiq, he is a British Muslim who has faced demonstrations outside of
:18:48. > :18:53.mosques by more extreme views within Islam, as based step threats for
:18:54. > :18:57.supporting same-sex marriage -- has faced death threats. He has spoken
:18:58. > :18:59.against extremism and the negative campaigning we are hearing, not only
:19:00. > :19:04.from this gentleman but also from Zac Goldsmith during the Mayall
:19:05. > :19:08.contest is despicable. I think it is good to have British Muslims like
:19:09. > :19:12.Sadiq Khan willing to stand up and speak against extremism which is why
:19:13. > :19:17.he will be such a brilliant mayor for London. Has Sadiq Khan got a
:19:18. > :19:21.case to answer? I certainly think it's incumbent upon him to be as
:19:22. > :19:24.open and frank as possible. I think thereafter slightly different
:19:25. > :19:28.responses he has given in the past. My understanding is he told the new
:19:29. > :19:33.statement a year ago that Babar Ahmad, he saw him as a constituent
:19:34. > :19:39.and a friend. I think there has been a shading of the definitions. The
:19:40. > :19:43.thing is, Caroline Flint, you could view it that when it suited him,
:19:44. > :19:47.Siddique Khan has gained favour in his constituency by making a big
:19:48. > :19:51.deal of how well and long he has known Babar Ahmad and now it looks
:19:52. > :19:56.as though he's a liability to him becoming mayor of London, he's
:19:57. > :20:00.trying to distance himself? Identity there's anything that the has said
:20:01. > :20:04.in which he has supported what Babar Ahmad was accused of all defended
:20:05. > :20:10.his position, once he pleaded guilty and was extradited to America. I
:20:11. > :20:14.think Sadiq, as long as I've known him, has been very clear about how
:20:15. > :20:18.we have two fight extremism in Islam, which is affecting so many
:20:19. > :20:21.people in our country and elsewhere. He has talked about as mayor,
:20:22. > :20:26.standing up for better community integration but also being a figure
:20:27. > :20:28.who will stand up for the British Muslim community, to argue against
:20:29. > :20:33.those who spread such poison and hate within our country. When people
:20:34. > :20:37.are saying, why aren't we see more British Muslim standing up and
:20:38. > :20:40.saying that? He will stand up and say that, not just for British
:20:41. > :20:45.Muslims but for Londoners. I'm afraid the record is very different,
:20:46. > :20:50.let's look the at the record and the fax clearly. You can't say he did
:20:51. > :20:54.that wrong because it is the same wind of thing Babar Ahmad is saying
:20:55. > :20:57.about the US justice system. There are clear records. Babar Ahmad is a
:20:58. > :21:01.convicted terrorist and Sadiq Khan filled out a form to visit him in
:21:02. > :21:04.prison as a friend. These are facts on the record. When you look at the
:21:05. > :21:07.campaign about Babar Ahmad, it is clear that Sadiq Khan was a leading
:21:08. > :21:12.light in that campaign in terms of the way he spoke out and others did
:21:13. > :21:16.not. One of the things he indulged what the narrative that somehow, US
:21:17. > :21:21.justice is not good enough for a victor Mike that. But Boris Johnson
:21:22. > :21:25.and Zac Goldsmith said the same. -- a victim like that. The campaign had
:21:26. > :21:30.support from other quarters, not just the de Caen. You are trying to
:21:31. > :21:34.tarnish Sadiq Khan by association. I'm not trying to tarnish anybody,
:21:35. > :21:37.I'm trying to make sure the national security of this country is not put
:21:38. > :21:40.in the hands of people who have associations they should not have.
:21:41. > :21:43.What I'm saying very clearly because that is a very serious accusation is
:21:44. > :21:47.that the record shows there were people involved with the campaign,
:21:48. > :21:51.when it comes to the extradition but that is a separate matter. The
:21:52. > :21:59.extradition law at the time, the campaign is a separate matter to
:22:00. > :22:02.what happened about Babar Ahmad and the idea that US justice is not good
:22:03. > :22:04.enough. He has been convicted as a terrorist in the US court and Sadiq
:22:05. > :22:07.Khan wrote questionable things in that regard about whether we can
:22:08. > :22:08.trust the US justice system. But he was not alone. We have to finish
:22:09. > :22:10.there. Thank you. Now, they voted to remain in 1975.
:22:11. > :22:13.Now they're campaigning to leave. They voted to leave in 1975.
:22:14. > :22:16.Now they're campaigning to remain. Why have so many politicians swapped
:22:17. > :22:18.sides in the Europe debate? So, three weeks in and it
:22:19. > :22:24.feels like three months. The campaign ahead of the referendum
:22:25. > :22:29.on our membership of the EU Besides those who had pretty much
:22:30. > :22:34.made up their minds long before, it leaves many remaining baffled,
:22:35. > :22:37.bamboozled and bored. I need a break just trying
:22:38. > :22:40.to make sense of it all. Are people inners or outers
:22:41. > :22:43.based on sovereignty, security, patriotism,
:22:44. > :22:47.or is it something else? The centre of political
:22:48. > :22:55.gravity, in fact. Go back to 1975 and it was
:22:56. > :22:59.the Labour Party who A major chunk of the party
:23:00. > :23:04.wanted to keep out. They thought the EEC,
:23:05. > :23:07.as it was then, would be an obstacle to central planning,
:23:08. > :23:09.nationalisation and expansion The Conservatives, on the other
:23:10. > :23:15.hand, were pretty much united. The UK economy was in the doldrums
:23:16. > :23:19.and Europe, they thought, was a place of dynamism
:23:20. > :23:21.and enterprise. They hoped some of it
:23:22. > :23:25.would rub off on the UK. In the 1970s, it could be argued
:23:26. > :23:29.that two of our main political parties were to the left
:23:30. > :23:34.of the centre of gravity in the EEC, The Conservatives felt that
:23:35. > :23:40.continued membership of the EEC would drag the domestic centre
:23:41. > :23:43.of gravity to the right. What they thought they would get
:23:44. > :23:46.from Europe was That was why Margaret Thatcher
:23:47. > :23:50.was strongly in favour of Europe until really quite
:23:51. > :23:53.late in the 1980s. Her Euroscepticism came much later
:23:54. > :23:58.than many people think. Fast forward 41 years
:23:59. > :24:02.and the parties' roles are reversed. A large chunk of the Parliamentary
:24:03. > :24:07.party and grassroots want out. Brussels, they feel,
:24:08. > :24:09.is a brake on dynamism and economic growth and is holding back
:24:10. > :24:12.the free market. Immigration is
:24:13. > :24:15.uncontrollable from inside. Labour MPs, with a few notable
:24:16. > :24:18.exceptions, want us to stay They point to the social protections
:24:19. > :24:24.and defence of workers' rights. So what has happened
:24:25. > :24:27.in the intervening years? All this can be explained
:24:28. > :24:33.by gravity again. Mrs Thatcher takes the Conservative
:24:34. > :24:35.Party further to the right than the centre of gravity
:24:36. > :24:40.in the EEC and Europe. This leaves a vacuum which,
:24:41. > :24:43.under Neil Kinnock and Tony Blair, moves Labour closer to the European
:24:44. > :24:47.centre of gravity, in fact, pretty much ending up
:24:48. > :24:52.in exactly the same space. The key factor that changed
:24:53. > :24:55.Margaret Thatcher's attitude was a speech by Jacques Delors,
:24:56. > :24:59.the president of the European Commission, to the Trade
:25:00. > :25:04.Union Congress in 1988. He said that the trade unions
:25:05. > :25:06.could get benefits from Brussels that they had not been able
:25:07. > :25:10.to get from Westminster. That led Margaret Thatcher to say
:25:11. > :25:13.in her Bruges speech shortly afterwards that we had not expelled
:25:14. > :25:17.socialism by the front door in Britain, to have it brought
:25:18. > :25:22.in by the back door from Brussels. Since then, all parties'
:25:23. > :25:23.gravitational centres have I'm calling it Dilnot's Universal
:25:24. > :25:31.Law of Referendums. And we're joined now by Lord Lawson,
:25:32. > :25:49.who voted to remain in 1975 but is now campaigning to leave,
:25:50. > :25:52.and Neil Kinnock, who was an outer in 1975 but is now campaigning
:25:53. > :26:03.to remain in the EU. Bear with us! Why have you changed
:26:04. > :26:08.your mind? In the first place, the European Union has changed. I was
:26:09. > :26:12.already a little bit against it because in a way, although I was an
:26:13. > :26:18.MP, I refuse to campaign in the referendum campaign of 1975 but I
:26:19. > :26:22.did, and I make no bones about it, vote to remain. But what has changed
:26:23. > :26:28.is the European Union. The fundamental change, the Rubicon, the
:26:29. > :26:31.watershed was the introduction of the single currency. A single
:26:32. > :26:35.currency only makes sense if there is a fiscal union, which means a
:26:36. > :26:40.political union, which means the United States of Europe. That was
:26:41. > :26:45.when it changed? Absolutely. I remember a great argument I had with
:26:46. > :26:50.Hugh Gaskell, a little more than 15 years ago. He was passionately
:26:51. > :26:54.against joining the European Union because it would be a political
:26:55. > :26:58.union, and he said it would be the end of 1000 years of history for
:26:59. > :27:03.this country. I argued with him that it was largely about trade. I was
:27:04. > :27:07.wrong and he was right. Why have you changed your mind? Because the
:27:08. > :27:15.realities have changed. When I campaigned in 1975 to come out of
:27:16. > :27:19.the European Community and the common market, as we then called it,
:27:20. > :27:23.I was concerned to a degree about Parliamentary sovereignty, although
:27:24. > :27:29.not as much as many of my colleagues, including Michael foot
:27:30. > :27:33.and Tony Benn. My main preoccupation was the effect
:27:34. > :27:34.and Tony Benn. My main preoccupation Northern Europe would have in
:27:35. > :27:41.pulling away jobs and investment from the UK, notably of course, the
:27:42. > :27:46.part of it which I represented in South Wales. Over the intervening
:27:47. > :27:49.years, it has become clear, not just that the single market of the
:27:50. > :27:54.European Union has a strong social dimension, which is very appealing
:27:55. > :27:58.to working people and those that I represented, but even more
:27:59. > :28:02.importantly, that at the very time I was arguing about my concerns
:28:03. > :28:10.relating to the pull of jobs and investment, the European Community
:28:11. > :28:18.was developing a very well-developed regional policy in order to counter
:28:19. > :28:23.that effect. To the extent that now, something around 200,000 jobs in
:28:24. > :28:27.Wales relate directly to the single market. So they would go in your
:28:28. > :28:31.mind? I'm not saying that they would go but they relate directly to the
:28:32. > :28:33.kind of trade and investment religion chips that we have been
:28:34. > :28:39.able to establish and develop over 43 years and -- relationships. And
:28:40. > :28:42.in addition between the agricultural support payments under regional
:28:43. > :28:47.payments, Wales, on the periphery, as we used to call it, is getting
:28:48. > :28:51.roughly 1.7 billion per year directly from the European Union.
:28:52. > :28:54.Although interestingly, the polls show that quite a lot of people in
:28:55. > :28:59.Wales are Eurosceptic and would like to pull out. The case in 1975, I
:29:00. > :29:03.made an eyesore to articulated the arguments them, that I'm one of
:29:04. > :29:06.those -- and those who believe that Wales could be best served of
:29:07. > :29:10.pulling out of European Union I think are wrong. Graham Brady, has
:29:11. > :29:14.there been this political shift for both parties, if you like? These
:29:15. > :29:18.gentlemen have changed their minds and so have many of their
:29:19. > :29:22.compatriots. But generally, have both parties shifted to the right on
:29:23. > :29:25.this issue? I'm not sure they have both shifted to the right but I
:29:26. > :29:30.think there's been an enormous movement in the population here. But
:29:31. > :29:33.also in other European countries. There was a poll a couple of weeks
:29:34. > :29:38.ago that said 48% of Dutch people want to leave the European Union for
:29:39. > :29:40.precisely the reasons Nigel has articulated. People are seeing the
:29:41. > :29:45.fact this is now a very different thing. It does not fit with national
:29:46. > :29:48.democracy. It is taking choices away from people and preventing us from
:29:49. > :29:52.running our own countries in the way we want to run them. The problems
:29:53. > :29:55.they have got in the Eurozone, a crisis which is unresolved, the
:29:56. > :29:59.problem of dealing with migration which they have no way of resolving,
:30:00. > :30:03.it is coming home to people that the only way to settle these things is
:30:04. > :30:11.to change very profoundly from the settlement we have at the moment.
:30:12. > :30:19.Is there a point that actually in the 1970s the Tories were happy
:30:20. > :30:22.about the European project? They saw it as more entrepreneurial, more
:30:23. > :30:27.businesslike than this country was at that time during the turbulent
:30:28. > :30:31.1970s? Now they see it more as a left-wing venture, more socially
:30:32. > :30:37.cohesive, and that's why the Tories have gone off it? I do not think it
:30:38. > :30:41.is about left and right at all. What I would say about the change that
:30:42. > :30:47.has happened in the European Union, and also the fact it is quite right
:30:48. > :30:52.in theory as your correspondent pointed out that at that time the
:30:53. > :30:55.British economy was not doing very well, in the 70s. The European
:30:56. > :31:00.economy seemed to be doing very well. That carried an attraction.
:31:01. > :31:03.What has happened since then, thanks to the refunds of the Thatcher in
:31:04. > :31:10.error, we now have the strongest economy in Europe. -- the re-forms
:31:11. > :31:20.of the Thatcher era. Following the single currency the euro area is a
:31:21. > :31:24.disaster. I was Chancellor of the Exchequer for many years, I have had
:31:25. > :31:27.some responsibility for looking at economic policy and how economies
:31:28. > :31:32.work. In my considered judgment our success has got nothing to do with
:31:33. > :31:37.the European Union. Indeed we would do far better economic and if we
:31:38. > :31:40.were to leave. Any of the past that would be available after exit,
:31:41. > :31:47.whether it was the Norway option, Switzerland, Canadian or just
:31:48. > :31:52.relying on them would not give us adequate cover for the export of our
:31:53. > :31:55.services, including financial services to the remainder of the
:31:56. > :31:59.European Union and that could be devastating on its effect for the
:32:00. > :32:03.whole economy. As an ex-Chancellor, Nigel, you know very well that we
:32:04. > :32:09.depend very substantially, partly as a result of the changes that you
:32:10. > :32:12.referred to being made, very substantially on being a service
:32:13. > :32:16.economy with a very strong financial services sector. Even countries like
:32:17. > :32:21.Switzerland have not been able to negotiate. We would not have access
:32:22. > :32:28.the way we do if we left the European Union. Another country that
:32:29. > :32:32.has been able to negotiate for access? Forget all this nonsense.
:32:33. > :32:37.The great majority of the world is outside the European Union. The vast
:32:38. > :32:40.bulk of the world. Most of these countries now are doing well
:32:41. > :32:46.economic league, better than most of the countries in the European union.
:32:47. > :32:51.Take a service that is close to your heart, television programmes. Do you
:32:52. > :32:54.think suddenly it will be impossible to sell television programmes to the
:32:55. > :33:00.European Union? That is way above my pay grade. You are saying that we
:33:01. > :33:04.can get the access that we have now when we are not members of the
:33:05. > :33:12.European Union. We will do far better. Gentleman, hold fire. I am
:33:13. > :33:17.not prepared to gamble my grandchildren's future. You should
:33:18. > :33:21.be concerned about being a self-governing democracy. We are.
:33:22. > :33:24.That brings me back, on a self-governing authority, how much
:33:25. > :33:29.of this is about sovereignty, or is this to some extent a red herring?
:33:30. > :33:32.For you and some of your older colleagues in the Labour Party, they
:33:33. > :33:37.have gone on a political journey, are you surprised that there are
:33:38. > :33:42.hardly any in the Shadow Cabinet who would campaign vigorously to leave?
:33:43. > :33:45.I am not surprised. I think compared to 1975 we are in a different type
:33:46. > :33:50.of world, much more interconnected. And a different type of party? A
:33:51. > :33:54.different type of party but we more interconnected. It is about the
:33:55. > :33:57.economy but it is about security as well and things like the
:33:58. > :34:03.environment. We cannot put up Fortress Britain around our shores
:34:04. > :34:09.to deal with problems of pollution. But we are not part of the Schengen
:34:10. > :34:16.zone now. I hear this, we are not part of Schengen, we are not part of
:34:17. > :34:20.the euro, we can make decisions. I hate the whole project fear thing, I
:34:21. > :34:24.want us to have a debate about the real world. If we leave the European
:34:25. > :34:28.Union, the questions are still not being answered as to what the world
:34:29. > :34:31.would look like for Great Britain. Because if we want to trade like
:34:32. > :34:36.America, like other countries around the world, like the Canadians, the
:34:37. > :34:38.Swiss, the Norwegians, they will have to die loot what they can ask
:34:39. > :34:47.for in order to trade within the EU. A simple vision of what it looks
:34:48. > :34:50.like for Britain out, never mind comparisons with other countries who
:34:51. > :34:57.have their own arrangements, how would it be unique for Britain? A
:34:58. > :35:00.free democracy that makes its own laws can decide who governs them and
:35:01. > :35:04.boots out if they don't like them. And the ability to control our
:35:05. > :35:10.borders. But we do control our own borders. There are people coming
:35:11. > :35:13.into the United Kingdom without us having any control whatsoever. And
:35:14. > :35:19.when it comes to trade we're seeing service export is twice as fast to
:35:20. > :35:25.countries outside the EU compared to those inside. But if we had to rely
:35:26. > :35:29.entirely on World Trade Organisation arrangements we certainly would not
:35:30. > :35:34.get the kind of cover from those kind of arrangements that we get as
:35:35. > :35:40.being part of the European Union. Most services in this country will
:35:41. > :35:46.tell you, the single market has been resisted. It will happen. People
:35:47. > :35:49.have been saying that for 30 years. You know very well that ever since
:35:50. > :35:55.the establishment of the single market by the government of which
:35:56. > :36:00.Nigel was a part, and it was a great stride forward, there have been
:36:01. > :36:04.incremental improvements to extend the single market in services and
:36:05. > :36:09.that is ongoing at this very moment. It will continue and it will be
:36:10. > :36:12.achieved. One way it will not be achieved, of course, is if the
:36:13. > :36:17.United Kingdom is not there to argue for it. For we finish, can David
:36:18. > :36:24.Cameron survive as Prime Minister if the UK votes to leave? I hope the UK
:36:25. > :36:27.will vote to leave, and when that happens I think it is important that
:36:28. > :36:31.David Cameron remains Prime Minister, I would like a period of
:36:32. > :36:36.stability and calm. We should have a period of discussion about how we
:36:37. > :36:41.approach the renegotiation. Two years in which to renegotiate, I
:36:42. > :36:47.thought you would be arguing that the last thing you would want is
:36:48. > :36:53.huge uproar and upheaval when they are fighting for our country's life.
:36:54. > :36:56.Does Nigel Lawson agree? Should he and can he remain? It is his
:36:57. > :37:00.responsibility after a vote which I hope will come to leave the European
:37:01. > :37:04.Union, it is his responsibility to implement the will of the British
:37:05. > :37:10.people. Is it realistic for him to stay? Perfectly realistic. What
:37:11. > :37:14.about Jeremy Corbyn, do you think he is as enthusiastic about remaining
:37:15. > :37:18.as you are? He has made a strong commitment and he has made that very
:37:19. > :37:22.evident. Whether he has got the detailed engagement that I have been
:37:23. > :37:25.fortunate enough to have I do not know. But I do know that in terms of
:37:26. > :37:29.principles, opportunities, safeguarding the future of the
:37:30. > :37:34.British people, he is very favourable. Would you like to see
:37:35. > :37:38.him campaign a bit more visibly? He's got a certain preoccupation
:37:39. > :37:41.with the current elections. I anticipate that after those
:37:42. > :37:47.elections he and his colleagues will be fully engaged in arguing for a
:37:48. > :37:51.Remain vote. Gentleman, you are fully engaged in arguing for both
:37:52. > :37:54.sides of this argument. Now to Scotland.
:37:55. > :37:56.On Saturday, Nicola Sturgeon told the SNP spring conference that
:37:57. > :37:58.if her party was returned to government in May,
:37:59. > :38:01.the party would begin to build a new case for Scottish independence
:38:02. > :38:04.Here's the First Minister, telling conference about her
:38:05. > :38:09."beautiful dream" of an independent Scotland.
:38:10. > :38:13.Our dream is for Scotland to become independent,
:38:14. > :38:16.to be in the driving seat of our own destiny,
:38:17. > :38:20.to shape our own future, and on the basis of
:38:21. > :38:23.equality, with our family across the British Isles
:38:24. > :38:26.and our friends across the globe, to play our part in building
:38:27. > :38:34.That is a beautiful dream and we believe in it.
:38:35. > :38:48.Can any of the Unionist parties stop her in pursuing that beautiful
:38:49. > :38:49.dream? And the Scottish Liberal Democrat
:38:50. > :38:58.Leader, Willie Rennie, The Liberal Democrats are heading
:38:59. > :39:02.for almost total wipe-out in Scotland. Could the Scottish Liberal
:39:03. > :39:08.Democrats become extinct? This is dismal tour, we have a great chance
:39:09. > :39:12.of growing. For two reasons. If you look at our team in Hollywood, we've
:39:13. > :39:18.punched well above our weight in holding the SNP to account on the
:39:19. > :39:21.police, investigating in colleges. Also the second thing, we've got a
:39:22. > :39:27.big, bold package for this election. We are standing up for an investment
:39:28. > :39:32.of a penny on income tax for education. Like Labour? Actually
:39:33. > :39:37.yes, like Labour, but we are proposing it for education, to have
:39:38. > :39:41.a transformational effect of ?475 million for a pupil premium for
:39:42. > :39:44.nursery education but also for our colleges. It is different from
:39:45. > :39:50.Labour but it is bold and I think it is progressive. It may be bold, but
:39:51. > :39:53.to anybody listening, policy suggestions might be eye-catching
:39:54. > :39:58.but where is the evidence people are listening to you to deliver it? The
:39:59. > :40:02.latest polls in February, Liberal Democrats polling four to 6%. We
:40:03. > :40:09.know the polls are not always correct but even so, where is your
:40:10. > :40:15.evidence? In different parts of Scotland our message is penetrating,
:40:16. > :40:19.and we can see it. How can you see it? Will it turn into seats? Yes, I
:40:20. > :40:23.believe we are going to go this time. How many? It would be wrong
:40:24. > :40:29.for me to start predicting. You sound very confident? I am, because
:40:30. > :40:34.we have a bold package and a team that punches above its weight. If
:40:35. > :40:37.you think it is a good idea to have the Scottish parliament dominated by
:40:38. > :40:40.the Scottish National party, you only have to look at some of the
:40:41. > :40:44.mistakes they've made in the last few years to realise that is not a
:40:45. > :40:48.good thing. We need diversity, a strong voice for liberal values that
:40:49. > :40:51.I stand up for. Would you ever consider joining any of the other
:40:52. > :40:56.parties in the Scottish parliament? If you are worried about the
:40:57. > :41:00.dominance of the SNP, and that shows no signs of abating, why not join
:41:01. > :41:05.another party? Because I am a Liberal Democrat. You could join
:41:06. > :41:08.forces. We work together on a variety of things. We worked
:41:09. > :41:12.together on the referendum, on budget. And you share this policy
:41:13. > :41:16.with Scottish Labour, who are also struggling, this idea of a penny on
:41:17. > :41:21.income tax. Wouldn't it be worthwhile in your bid to stop the
:41:22. > :41:25.rise of the SNP to join forces? The best way to get the most votes in
:41:26. > :41:28.the election is to be clear, distinct, and campaigned vigorously
:41:29. > :41:31.in the part of the country that you've got a great chance of
:41:32. > :41:38.winning, and that's exactly what we are doing. I'm not interesting in
:41:39. > :41:40.pre-election pact is, that's for other people to talk about. I am
:41:41. > :41:44.interested in making progress in this election. I think we have
:41:45. > :41:48.turned the corner. We had a difficult five years. But this time
:41:49. > :41:52.round with a bold package and a great team we have a great chance of
:41:53. > :41:55.progressing. So nobody has talked to you about joining forces on
:41:56. > :41:59.anything. What about if the Conservatives leapfrog labour? Ruth
:42:00. > :42:04.Davidson was putting that forward, cosy at a bail denied it would ever
:42:05. > :42:09.happen. Again, would you do a deal with the Conservatives? Is that a
:42:10. > :42:13.dismal prospect? Dismal prospect of having the Conservatives who talk
:42:14. > :42:17.about the SNP all the time, the SNP who talk about the Conservatives all
:42:18. > :42:21.the time, feeding off each other. One determined in part to break up
:42:22. > :42:24.the European Union, the other determined to break up the United
:42:25. > :42:29.Kingdom. We need parties that stand up for progressive politics and
:42:30. > :42:33.keeping our country together. If the EU referendum delivers a Leave vote
:42:34. > :42:37.in June, is there a scenario where the Scottish Liberal Democrats would
:42:38. > :42:41.support the idea of a second Scottish independence referendum? I
:42:42. > :42:44.want to stop all this, and that is the danger in the Conservatives just
:42:45. > :42:48.now with their divisions on Europe, they are really risking another
:42:49. > :42:52.independence referendum. We could end up using the two great unions of
:42:53. > :42:56.the United Kingdom, partly because the Conservatives are so divided on
:42:57. > :42:59.the issue, as we heard from Nicola Sturgeon in the clip, she is
:43:00. > :43:02.determined to have another independence referendum. We should
:43:03. > :43:07.be moving on for the next five years to talk about the big issues that
:43:08. > :43:09.face this country. It is about protecting the environment,
:43:10. > :43:14.investing in education, keeping what's best in our NHS, but also
:43:15. > :43:18.guaranteeing Civil Liberties. That's the focus for the next five years,
:43:19. > :43:22.not all this constitutional forever Meisel gave think that those two
:43:23. > :43:26.parties are determined to do. -- nasal gazing.
:43:27. > :43:29.Now, time to have a look at some of the stories coming up
:43:30. > :43:33.On Tuesday, the Leave and Remain campaigns with be marking 100 days
:43:34. > :43:35.until polling day in the EU referendum,
:43:36. > :43:38.Also on Tuesday, the Northern Powerhouse will be in the spotlight
:43:39. > :43:41.when Lord Adonis releases the final report of his
:43:42. > :43:44.National Infrastructure Commission ahead of the Budget.
:43:45. > :43:46.That's on Wednesday, when George Osborne when he says
:43:47. > :43:53.equivalent to 50p in every ?100 of Government spending.
:43:54. > :43:57.We'll have live coverage here on BBC2, of course.
:43:58. > :44:02.On Thursday, David Cameron will be meeting with other EU leaders
:44:03. > :44:05.in Brussels, where they are supposed to be finalising the deal
:44:06. > :44:10.We're joined now by Tom Newton Dunn from the Sun and The Guardian's
:44:11. > :44:25.Tom, let's start with your story about the Queen backing Brexit, was
:44:26. > :44:29.Michael Gove your source? Nice try. We never talk about our sources. At
:44:30. > :44:39.least I was open and transparent about it. He shut it down. So where
:44:40. > :44:42.does it go from here? Buckingham Palace has launched a formal
:44:43. > :44:48.complaint with the press watchdog and yet there are still stories that
:44:49. > :44:52.she was upset because of a so-called sermon and Nick Clegg, what say you?
:44:53. > :44:56.We say we standing by this, defending the complaint vigorously.
:44:57. > :44:59.We expect that want to be interesting as it plays out. I
:45:00. > :45:02.cannot tell you exactly what the Palace have complained about because
:45:03. > :45:06.it is confidential but it will be interesting when that emerges
:45:07. > :45:09.itself. We are taking the story on a little bit in our paper and have
:45:10. > :45:13.another account of the quite extraordinary exchange to win the
:45:14. > :45:17.Queen, Nick Clegg in Windsor Castle a few years ago. This time from a
:45:18. > :45:22.royal courtiers saying it was Nick Clegg that started the debate by
:45:23. > :45:25.giving the Queen sermon, and the Queen responded reasonably
:45:26. > :45:30.witheringly, so the story goes on. Of course there is the urgent
:45:31. > :45:33.question tabled by Tom Watson in the House of Commons just now, as we
:45:34. > :45:36.just discovered, about the Privy Council and various different
:45:37. > :45:38.infringements he believes have happened in it. So it will roll on
:45:39. > :45:47.and on. At least you know that one of the
:45:48. > :45:51.prime views of this show is the Queen so on Georges caught
:45:52. > :45:54.everything you just that. Could the budget be rather boring? Certainly,
:45:55. > :45:58.people have not been very interested so far, largely because, as you know
:45:59. > :46:02.we're right in the middle of the election and lots of the good
:46:03. > :46:04.stories, of course, Tom with the one around the Queen and we're looking
:46:05. > :46:13.forward to that confidential complaint, when the sun breaks it in
:46:14. > :46:17.the future! Do you? LAUGHTER I do think it is an important moment
:46:18. > :46:21.the George Osborne. He still has his eyes on the Tory crown and he will
:46:22. > :46:24.want to make a real statement on Wednesday, despite the fact he has
:46:25. > :46:28.been getting us ready for the fact there could be spending cuts,
:46:29. > :46:32.further spending cuts to come because of this ?4 billion of extra
:46:33. > :46:35.savings that they need to find. The thing he has been talking about is
:46:36. > :46:40.his manifesto promises to the British people. Really, he's going
:46:41. > :46:45.to want to make progress on that raising of the upper threshold, the
:46:46. > :46:48.raising of the personal allowance. I believe he is a political Chancellor
:46:49. > :46:52.and Isis Becky will want to pull out a rabbit of the hat. I'm sure he
:46:53. > :46:55.will and you are right but the problem is, he does not have much
:46:56. > :47:00.room for manoeuvre because of his own rules and wanting to get a
:47:01. > :47:04.surplus. Do you think he's beginning to regret that? He's written an
:47:05. > :47:07.awful lot of checks at the last general election in the Conservative
:47:08. > :47:11.Party manifesto, some of which we just heard about. Even in the good
:47:12. > :47:14.times, it was going to be hard to catch the Czechs, tax cuts for low
:47:15. > :47:18.income and higher income earners across the board. Now the times are
:47:19. > :47:22.even tighter, he's an even more physical trouble. Chancellors always
:47:23. > :47:26.find money from somewhere when they need it, that's the rule of all
:47:27. > :47:29.budgets but this one has a second dynamic which is the EU referendum
:47:30. > :47:33.which is pervading everything we say and do, tragically, down here. His
:47:34. > :47:38.issue is, he would love to do something bold, the first budget of
:47:39. > :47:41.a new parliament, the time to really cause trouble and dig in but he
:47:42. > :47:45.can't because the Tory MPs almost certainly won't back him if it's
:47:46. > :47:48.controversial. Also desperate to try to prove that the party is still
:47:49. > :47:51.working, the government is still united and they can still do
:47:52. > :47:55.interesting things but I think when it comes to it, he's going to on the
:47:56. > :47:59.side of caution and it will probably be most boring budget we have seen
:48:00. > :48:04.in a long time. -- he's going to go on the side of caution. Now I'm
:48:05. > :48:09.disappointed. Taking that into account, only ?4 billion worth of
:48:10. > :48:13.cuts, it may be tempting to raise fuel duty and it may be tempting to
:48:14. > :48:18.do something, as Tom alluded to, to throw some red meat to the Tory
:48:19. > :48:21.grassroots. That he's already been warned against taxing businesses
:48:22. > :48:27.further. Is it going to be mainly from welfare? I think the difficulty
:48:28. > :48:31.for him is where he finds the money. He's already backed off pension
:48:32. > :48:35.reforms because of Tory backbenchers. As you say, fuel duty,
:48:36. > :48:39.there were hints he might increase it by RPI but there are something
:48:40. > :48:43.like 160 backbenchers who will try to stop him from doing that,
:48:44. > :48:47.including a lot on his own backbenchers. One thing we already
:48:48. > :48:50.know is going to happen is the ?1.2 billion saving from reforms to
:48:51. > :48:54.disability benefits and I suspect that's an area where we will see a
:48:55. > :48:58.big push back from Labour and charities tomorrow, these reforms to
:48:59. > :49:03.the personal independence payment. Anywhere else that he tries to save
:49:04. > :49:08.money on something Labour will rake over. We can expect a lot of stealth
:49:09. > :49:11.taxes, like increases in insurance premiums, that are already going to
:49:12. > :49:15.annoy motorists so maybe he won't want to go further with fuel duty as
:49:16. > :49:17.well. Thank you for joining us. Enjoy it, anyway, even if it is not
:49:18. > :49:20.as exciting as you hoped. Now, are your ready
:49:21. > :49:22.for BoJo versus Obama? Boris Johnson has criticised
:49:23. > :49:24.Barack Obama, following reports that he is preparing to come
:49:25. > :49:27.to the UK to tell us to stay in the the EU, calling it
:49:28. > :49:30."a piece of outrageous Now that would be a head-to-head
:49:31. > :49:38.debate worth watching! As he was born in the US,
:49:39. > :49:41.Boris is one of the few UK politicians
:49:42. > :49:45.eligible to become President. for a documentary that
:49:46. > :49:50.goes out tonight, I asked him about his
:49:51. > :49:54.ambitions closer to home. How has it changed,
:49:55. > :49:57.your relationship with the Prime Minister, since you decided
:49:58. > :49:59.to campaign for Leave? You know, you have got
:50:00. > :50:01.to understand that my relationships and friendships
:50:02. > :50:02.with government go back They are pretty much invulnerable.
:50:03. > :50:09.Are they? Yes, to any short-term,
:50:10. > :50:11.you know, disagreements So you are still friends?
:50:12. > :50:14.Yes, of course. You once said, which is true,
:50:15. > :50:22.that you had a greater chance of being reincarnated as an olive...
:50:23. > :50:24.Yes. You remember, than
:50:25. > :50:25.you did about being Or a baked bean, or decapitated
:50:26. > :50:29.by Frisbee or locked But actually, looking at it now,
:50:30. > :50:35.there's no one more likely to be Honestly, David Cameron
:50:36. > :50:39.is doing a great job, everyone knows that and there's
:50:40. > :50:41.a long way to go before And we're joined now
:50:42. > :50:53.by Boris Johnson's biogapher, Welcome to the show. Opposing David
:50:54. > :50:57.Cameron is one thing but do you think Boris has bitten off more than
:50:58. > :51:00.he can chew in having a go at Barack Obama? Orange Mokoka he's had a go
:51:01. > :51:04.at him before about parking fines, which the American Embassy in London
:51:05. > :51:08.refuses to pay. It is one of his best columns, actually, I think. It
:51:09. > :51:09.is a point which will have struck almost anyone who has been to
:51:10. > :51:13.America that they have a very strong almost anyone who has been to
:51:14. > :51:23.sense of nationhood and you can't do anything which infringes American
:51:24. > :51:25.sovereignty and yet, here they are, advising us to join the European
:51:26. > :51:28.Union. It's a completely contradictory position and Boris and
:51:29. > :51:31.many of us has bolted but he put it very trenchantly today. His speech
:51:32. > :51:33.on Brexit last week could only be described, I suppose as vintage
:51:34. > :51:37.Boris but is it the right approach to winning, first the referendum
:51:38. > :51:41.campaign and then that really do ship? I think he's a bit like the
:51:42. > :51:44.British Army, whenever we get in a war, we usually have several
:51:45. > :51:48.catastrophes before we get the hang of it. He's starting to get the hang
:51:49. > :51:51.of it, I think but he was in a mess to begin with because his initial
:51:52. > :51:55.pitch was he would do a better deal than Cameron and that was not
:51:56. > :51:57.sufficient differentiation. It certainly did not involve a
:51:58. > :52:02.trenchant defence of national sovereignty which many Tory
:52:03. > :52:07.Eurosceptics would think was at the heart of the argument. Do you think
:52:08. > :52:11.everything Boris does is seen through the prism of becoming Prime
:52:12. > :52:19.Minister? No, I think he also wants to amuse us. I would say most MPs, I
:52:20. > :52:22.don't know about present company but most MPs, the thought has
:52:23. > :52:25.occasionally crossed their minds, I think that they might and certainly,
:52:26. > :52:28.some of the most implausible candidates have stood for the
:52:29. > :52:31.leadership of both the Labour and Conservative Party in the past so I
:52:32. > :52:35.don't think you can hold it against Boris but he thinks about it as
:52:36. > :52:40.well. Sometimes implausible candidates win! Who are you thinking
:52:41. > :52:46.of? Are you running for the leadership? You will be the
:52:47. > :52:54.returning officer! That's not very ambitious. You could do better. It
:52:55. > :52:59.would sue John Mantle. But you say he had this motivation to amuse us.
:53:00. > :53:03.Would the public view him as an amusing mayor of London but
:53:04. > :53:07.certainly not someone they could consider as Prime Minister? Identity
:53:08. > :53:11.no because both as a journalist and a politician, he is extremely agile
:53:12. > :53:14.and that can be dismissed as opportunism and it can also be
:53:15. > :53:18.regarded as a kind of enlightened pragmatism, because when the story
:53:19. > :53:24.changes he changes his view. It depends what the want. But if the
:53:25. > :53:28.millions of undecided voters need reassurance at the moment, then
:53:29. > :53:33.Boris jumping about all over the place may not provide it. Was it
:53:34. > :53:37.risky, his decision? You know many people have accused him of not being
:53:38. > :53:43.authentic, that he was somebody who really was an instinctive inner. Do
:53:44. > :53:48.you believe that? It was risky but it was an unenviable choice. Either
:53:49. > :53:51.he became a loyal member of the Cameron - Osborne machine... But if
:53:52. > :53:56.that is what he believes, people say you should support what you believe
:53:57. > :54:00.rather than just be pragmatic? He believes he would be a lot better
:54:01. > :54:03.than George Osborne and indie David Cameron. He's a lot brighter and
:54:04. > :54:08.prepared to take the necessary risks, to drive a hard deal in
:54:09. > :54:10.Brussels. But will he get on the ballot paper? If that was the cow
:54:11. > :54:14.collision that he needed to guarantee being on the ballot, to
:54:15. > :54:19.differentiate himself between him and George Osborne before he went to
:54:20. > :54:22.the grassroots, do you think you will end up...? Identity no because
:54:23. > :54:26.the frontrunner has not won this race since 1955 when Anthony Eden
:54:27. > :54:30.succeeded Churchill so it's very unpredictable. If in the next few
:54:31. > :54:34.months, he confirms his position as the darling of many Tory activists,
:54:35. > :54:38.then many Tory MPs will be bitterly criticised if they don't make him
:54:39. > :54:41.one of the last two. Is Simon Heffer right when he says only a handful of
:54:42. > :54:49.MPs will support Boris before we get to the grassroots? I'm going to be
:54:50. > :54:53.very boring... Don't be boring! I am applying to be the returning officer
:54:54. > :55:00.so I don't think I should say. You have thought about this before you
:55:01. > :55:04.came on. I'm disappointed in you. Are there only a few MPs who would
:55:05. > :55:09.support Boris? I'm not even asking you, of your colleagues, would only
:55:10. > :55:14.a few of them support? I've no idea, it is entirely up to my colleagues.
:55:15. > :55:19.You must've had those conversations, surely. I have lots of private
:55:20. > :55:23.conversations. And the word Private is instructive. Does Boris on the
:55:24. > :55:29.mentally believe in anything? Yes, lots of things, I would say. --
:55:30. > :55:32.fundamentally believe. He's a merry England Conservative, let people
:55:33. > :55:35.enjoy themselves, he's completely uncensored aura is and he could not
:55:36. > :55:42.stand up for some thing like marriage. -- an censorious. He wants
:55:43. > :55:47.the genius of the induce people to be expressed in whatever way John
:55:48. > :55:52.Bull happens to think is a good idea at the time. Caroline Flint, do you
:55:53. > :55:56.find him using? On occasion and I have to say, some people like to
:55:57. > :56:00.portray Boris Johnson as some kind of buffoon. I've never
:56:01. > :56:03.underestimated him. I don't know him personally but I've always thought,
:56:04. > :56:09.the way in which he goes on zip wires and what have you is part of,
:56:10. > :56:11.I think, quite calculated, in some respects, it's part of his
:56:12. > :56:14.personality but it is also to deflect sometimes from other things
:56:15. > :56:18.that I think a more serious. It's interesting he's having a go at
:56:19. > :56:22.America and Barack Obama on the fact that they would say, we find it
:56:23. > :56:27.easier to deal with a block than different countries. When the people
:56:28. > :56:29.who want to leave the European Union wanted, they use America as an
:56:30. > :56:33.example of why we should leave and then we don't -- they don't like it
:56:34. > :56:36.when the American president says he likes working with the EU. I think
:56:37. > :56:38.it's a bit rich. Thank you for joining us.
:56:39. > :56:40.And viewers in London can watch the documentary,
:56:41. > :56:42.Boris: The London Years, on BBC One at 7:30pm.
:56:43. > :56:46.There's just time before we go to find out the answer to our quiz.
:56:47. > :56:50.The question was, who or what did George Osborne ask to "keep it down"
:56:51. > :56:53.while he was writing his Budget in the House of Commons yesterday?
:56:54. > :56:56.Was it A - noisy protesters, B - squeaky House of Commons mice
:56:57. > :57:00.or D - Top Gear, who were filming outside?
:57:01. > :57:02.So Caroline and Graham, what's the correct answer?
:57:03. > :57:10.Matt LeBlanc, doing Top Gear outside. I think we can show you
:57:11. > :57:16.some footage, or maybe only the picture of the team. What do you
:57:17. > :57:21.think? No, here it is. Do you think it was inappropriate to film by the
:57:22. > :57:26.Senate after over the weekend -- by the Cenotaph. It looks a bit close
:57:27. > :57:31.for comfort. I've not seen this before. You would have said no? I
:57:32. > :57:36.think there should be an exclusion zone. The defence that was put out
:57:37. > :57:39.earlier was that it was a long lens and it was not near Cenotaph but
:57:40. > :57:45.unless it was a really long lens, it looked quite close. Had you seen it
:57:46. > :57:49.before? I saw the photographs but it looks very close to the Cenotaph,
:57:50. > :57:53.even closer than the better grass suggested. Presenter Chris Evans has
:57:54. > :57:59.said the footage will not be used following the complaints. Are you a
:58:00. > :58:02.fan of the programme anyway, Graham? Yes, I think it is usually fun. It
:58:03. > :58:06.is good that they push the boundaries but maybe sometimes they
:58:07. > :58:11.push them a bit too far. You are not a returning officer on this or you
:58:12. > :58:18.can safely say. What about you? I don't really watch it but hearing
:58:19. > :58:24.Jeremy Clarkson said we should stay European Union, how interesting is
:58:25. > :58:29.that? You brought it back to that! So Europe larks and fan? His family
:58:30. > :58:33.are from near my constituency. I've not seen him in my constituency in a
:58:34. > :58:34.genius but there you go. I bet you never thought that would be so
:58:35. > :58:36.fascinating. That's all for today.
:58:37. > :58:38.Thanks to our guests. The one o'clock news is starting
:58:39. > :58:41.over on BBC One now. I'll be here at noon tomorrow
:58:42. > :58:44.with all the big political stories And we will no doubt be talking
:58:45. > :58:52.about the EU and the budget. Do join me then.
:58:53. > :58:54.Goodbye.