:00:38. > :00:41.Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics.
:00:42. > :00:44.As the Conservative Party descends into civil war,
:00:45. > :00:49.will David Cameron be able to quell the unrest as he prepares to tell
:00:50. > :00:51.the Commons that he still believes in compassionate Conservatism?
:00:52. > :01:06.A "narrow attack on working age benefits".
:01:07. > :01:09.Iain Duncan Smith's parting words are a gift for Labour,
:01:10. > :01:16.The deal allowing migrants arriving in Greece to be sent back to Turkey
:01:17. > :01:20.came into effect yesterday but is it deterring people from crossing?
:01:21. > :01:23.And how doing this could land you with a ?100 fine
:01:24. > :01:27.or even a criminal record.
:01:28. > :01:30.All that in the next hour and with us for the whole programme
:01:31. > :01:32.today two former leadership hopefuls for their respective parties.
:01:33. > :01:35.The Conservative MP, David Davis, and Labour's Chuka Umunna who's
:01:36. > :01:38.fresh from the launch of his All-Party Parliamentary Group
:01:39. > :01:51.First this morning, leaving the EU could cost ?100 billion to the UK
:01:52. > :01:53.economy and cause the loss of almost a million jobs,
:01:54. > :01:55.according to a report commissioned by the Confederation
:01:56. > :02:05.The analysis by the accountancy firm PricewaterhouseCoopers
:02:06. > :02:08.says household incomes could be between ?2,100 and ?3,700 lower
:02:09. > :02:20.If that isn't a project fear, I don't know what is. It is perfectly
:02:21. > :02:26.legitimate to point out the risks involved in us leaving, but of
:02:27. > :02:30.course the campaign that I am a part of, hands on the table, it also
:02:31. > :02:36.telling the story of things we stand to gain through continued
:02:37. > :02:41.membership. The CBI represent over 150,000 businesses employing 7
:02:42. > :02:45.million people in our country. They are pointing out that if we leave it
:02:46. > :02:48.could cost up to 100 billion and we could lose 1 million jobs. That is
:02:49. > :02:53.research and it should be taken notice of because of who the CBI is.
:02:54. > :02:57.Of course there will be research on the other side as well. For me it is
:02:58. > :03:02.not just an economic issue. It is about how we see our country, how we
:03:03. > :03:13.amplify the great in Great Britain. We are already a fantastic country,
:03:14. > :03:15.so making sure we can achieve good tangible things or people at home
:03:16. > :03:18.and abroad. It is a serious organisation, so on those figures,
:03:19. > :03:22.they would be mad to vote to leave the EU. Which is the serious
:03:23. > :03:27.organisation? PricewaterhouseCoopers? The CBI? Are
:03:28. > :03:32.you saying that the numbers are wrong? I am, essentially. The
:03:33. > :03:36.numbers assume there is no low skilled immigration, and that is
:03:37. > :03:40.where the numbers disappear. One of the ex-members of the monetary
:03:41. > :03:43.committee tweeted earlier that the difference we are talking about over
:03:44. > :03:46.nearly 20 years that they are forecasting is less than the change
:03:47. > :03:53.in the forecast between the Autumn Statement last year and the budget
:03:54. > :03:58.this year. It is tiny. Different in tone though. I agree with Chuka
:03:59. > :04:02.Umunna on one thing. It is not about finely balanced forecasts. They have
:04:03. > :04:07.made mistakes, but put that to one side. This simple truth is this is
:04:08. > :04:12.about how we see our country. We have got a great country. Can it
:04:13. > :04:17.stand on its own to feet? Yes. It can do a better deal with free-trade
:04:18. > :04:22.and Europe has done in the past. Is it a country that can grow off the
:04:23. > :04:26.back of this? My view is yes, as the viewers know. This report is
:04:27. > :04:31.irrelevant. Interesting that you should raise the members of that
:04:32. > :04:36.committee, because the person who oversaw this PricewaterhouseCoopers
:04:37. > :04:41.report is a former member. And didn't think to point out how small
:04:42. > :04:46.the differences. He clearly thinks it will have a detrimental affect on
:04:47. > :04:51.our economy. In the end, I wouldn't argue that if we leave the European
:04:52. > :04:55.Union we couldn't stand on our own two feat. But would it be better? If
:04:56. > :04:58.we put the figures aside because that will not win or lose the arc
:04:59. > :05:04.and, although it is interesting that when we have both sides on, you go
:05:05. > :05:07.to the figures, but putting that aside, will you be able to convince
:05:08. > :05:13.people that they wouldn't be liberated or better off if there was
:05:14. > :05:18.a vote to leave the EU? That is the proposition being put by the other
:05:19. > :05:22.side. I don't buy the notion that we are shackled by the European Union,
:05:23. > :05:27.which the other side are putting. If we look at votes from the European
:05:28. > :05:31.Council, nine out of ten times we are on the majority side. I don't
:05:32. > :05:35.buy this talking down Britain's influence in the European Union and
:05:36. > :05:39.getting run over because that doesn't happen. I have been there, I
:05:40. > :05:47.have negotiated in this council, I know how it works. 72 times in the
:05:48. > :05:52.last ten years we have tried to stop the European Union and 72 times we
:05:53. > :05:54.have lost. How many times have we won? The fundamental point is
:05:55. > :06:02.countries try to avoid falling out with each other. We are the ones
:06:03. > :06:08.being outvoted. Listen. We have been outvoted more times than any other
:06:09. > :06:13.country in the European Union. Latvia, Lithuania, nobody has been
:06:14. > :06:18.outvoted more times than we have. As the country done so badly being part
:06:19. > :06:21.of the EU? A lot of it has been under a Conservative Government
:06:22. > :06:24.recently, which says this country has done well economically and it is
:06:25. > :06:29.the Conservative Government that has kept Great Britain out of the Euro
:06:30. > :06:37.crisis. Originally the decision was under Labour, but out of the Euro
:06:38. > :06:41.crisis and out of Schengen. What are you liberating Britain from? If you
:06:42. > :06:47.want to talk history, if you look at history Britain, when we joined in
:06:48. > :06:52.73, we were doing badly. In terms of exports to Europe. We were never
:06:53. > :06:56.very good at that. The Commonwealth and not to Europe. When we joined,
:06:57. > :07:00.we joined, we did really well for about 20 years, what you might call
:07:01. > :07:03.the common market period. Since the single market period, which everyone
:07:04. > :07:07.thought was the common market squared, actually we have done
:07:08. > :07:14.relatively poorly. Less well than countries outside the European Union
:07:15. > :07:17.in selling into Europe. Go on, finish your point. There is plenty
:07:18. > :07:22.of evidence to show you if you want to look at it. Look at the issue of
:07:23. > :07:27.free trade negotiations. Not just a Europe that other parts of the
:07:28. > :07:35.world. But we can negotiate bilateral agreements. We can't. Let
:07:36. > :07:39.me finish. Briefly! We can't do it. When they do it for us, in two
:07:40. > :07:46.thirds of those areas, our export rate goes down. Reply and then we
:07:47. > :07:52.move on. We benefit from the fact we don't have tariffs when we sell to
:07:53. > :07:58.the EU, our biggest export market. You are assuming tariffs would be
:07:59. > :08:01.imposed? Yes. But we also have trade agreements with 50 other countries.
:08:02. > :08:04.I am not saying we couldn't reach the trade agreement with another
:08:05. > :08:09.country but we would have more bargaining power. When negotiating
:08:10. > :08:13.with China, they have 3 billion people and we are sitting on this
:08:14. > :08:17.side of the table with half a billion people. I don't believe we
:08:18. > :08:23.would have the same clout sitting on our own. On that basis, we finish.
:08:24. > :08:25.Obviously that conversation with David and Chuka was incredibly
:08:26. > :08:27.illuminating, but you'd be forgiven for getting rather confused
:08:28. > :08:30.with all the facts and figures thrown about on the EU.
:08:31. > :08:35.So if you have any burning questions do get in touch with us by tweeting
:08:36. > :08:44.and include the word #dpeu or you can use the contact us
:08:45. > :08:46.page on our website at bbc.co.uk/dailypolitics.
:08:47. > :08:48.This Thursday we'll put your questions to
:08:49. > :08:51.the Conservative's Sam Gyimah and Ukip's Paul Nuttall who I'm sure
:08:52. > :08:54.will both do their very best to answer as clearly as possible.
:08:55. > :09:01.After all the stress of the last few days you can hardly blame
:09:02. > :09:09.Perhaps he doesn't want to come back.
:09:10. > :09:12.is he planning to do this Easter break?
:09:13. > :09:21.At the end of the show Chuka and David will give us the correct
:09:22. > :09:29.Maybe they can tell is where they are going on their Easter break.
:09:30. > :09:32.Now, in case you've had your head buried in the sand for a few days,
:09:33. > :09:34.you're probably aware that all is not well
:09:35. > :09:37.After Iain Duncan Smith's resignation on Friday,
:09:38. > :09:40.the Prime Minister will today use a statement in the House of Commons
:09:41. > :09:43.to defend a record of what he calls "modern, compassionate
:09:44. > :09:46.Yesterday Mr Duncan Smith took to the airwaves to declare
:09:47. > :09:49.that the Government was in "danger of drifting in a direction that
:09:50. > :09:52.divides society rather than unites it".
:09:53. > :09:57.His particular complaint was over initial plans to cut over ?4 billion
:09:58. > :09:59.from the bill for disability benefits, which Mr Duncan Smith
:10:00. > :10:08.He went on: "It just looks like we see this as a pot of money,
:10:09. > :10:14.that it doesn't matter because they don't vote for us.
:10:15. > :10:17.Today the Prime Minister will use a statement in the Commons
:10:18. > :10:20.to respond to the criticisms and defend his record of "modern,
:10:21. > :10:22.compassionate Conservatism" which he says has been his trademark
:10:23. > :10:25.since he became party leader in 2005.
:10:26. > :10:30.Last night Conservative grandee Sir Roger Gale criticised
:10:31. > :10:32.Mr Duncan Smith, saying he was guilty of opportunism
:10:33. > :10:36.at its absolute worst and suggested the former Work
:10:37. > :10:46.and Pensions Secretary had an ulterior motive.
:10:47. > :10:50.He went on to say the resignation was designed to do as much damage
:10:51. > :10:56.In cause and in support of the Brexit cause as possible.
:10:57. > :11:04.Today's Times makes further grim reading for the Government
:11:05. > :11:06.with the Prime Minister reportedly telling a Cabinet colleague
:11:07. > :11:09.that he blames George Osborne for the row over disability cuts.
:11:10. > :11:13.Former Conservative leader Michael Howard urged MPs to calm
:11:14. > :11:15.down and remember the party's collective responsibility
:11:16. > :11:20.However, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has said George Osborne needs
:11:21. > :11:23.to come to the House of Commons and explain how
:11:24. > :11:27.he will reconfigure his Budget in the wake of Iain Duncan Smith's
:11:28. > :11:38.Our party is very, very clear that we want to protect the personal
:11:39. > :11:43.independence payments for those with disabilities. The Budget doesn't add
:11:44. > :11:46.up. The Chancellor of the Exchequer should come back to Parliament and
:11:47. > :11:49.explain that. Far from just Iain Duncan Smith residing, if the
:11:50. > :11:57.Chancellor puts forward a Budget, which he did, knowing full well that
:11:58. > :12:00.he was taking this huge hit on the disabled, then really it should be
:12:01. > :12:02.perhaps in considering his position as well as Iain Duncan Smith who has
:12:03. > :12:05.already gone. Jeremy Corbyn. I'm joined now from central lobby
:12:06. > :12:07.by Conservative MP Chris Philp, a member of the Treasury
:12:08. > :12:13.Select Committee. Welcome back to the Daily Politics.
:12:14. > :12:17.Iain Duncan Smith has said this Government is in danger of drifting
:12:18. > :12:22.in a direction that divides society rather than uniting it. Is he wrong?
:12:23. > :12:28.I think he is wrong. The Government's record is a good one.
:12:29. > :12:32.800,000 people less Rian relative poverty than five years ago. Wages
:12:33. > :12:35.are going up. Thousands of children no longer live workless households.
:12:36. > :12:39.We have put through the biggest increase in the minimum wage at and
:12:40. > :12:44.given gigantic tax cuts to people on low incomes by increasing the
:12:45. > :12:48.personal threshold. This Government has a fantastic record of helping
:12:49. > :12:51.people on low incomes. Taking the point about disabilities, we are
:12:52. > :12:55.spending more on disabled benefits now that Labour were five years ago,
:12:56. > :12:59.both in pound terms of real terms, and even if these changes go
:13:00. > :13:02.through, which it looks like they will not, even without that,
:13:03. > :13:07.disability spending would have increased by ?1 billion a year so I
:13:08. > :13:11.disagree with Iain Duncan Smith's conclusions. So you stand by the
:13:12. > :13:15.policy of restricting the personal independence payment even though the
:13:16. > :13:19.changes will not happen? I think it is right that it should be reviewed
:13:20. > :13:24.and it is a measure of the Government's maturity and
:13:25. > :13:31.sensitivity that when a policy is proposed... That is not how it was
:13:32. > :13:35.taken by Iain Duncan Smith. He did acknowledge that it was just a
:13:36. > :13:37.consultation. It is a sign of the Government's maturity and
:13:38. > :13:41.sensitivity that when something is criticised, they are willing to
:13:42. > :13:45.think again, as they did over working tax credits. I think it is a
:13:46. > :13:49.sign of strength and maturity and it is good to look again to make sure
:13:50. > :13:52.that the things proposed actually work. The Conservatives make sure
:13:53. > :13:54.that people who need help get that help and that is why disability
:13:55. > :14:12.spending is higher now than it has ever been at any point in the
:14:13. > :14:14.history of this country. You could call is majority or a backlash
:14:15. > :14:17.trying to hold the party together and they are out of touch because
:14:18. > :14:20.they did not predict this reaction, despite protests from Tory MPs about
:14:21. > :14:22.changes to tax credits. What do you say about the judgment of George
:14:23. > :14:24.Osborne? It was a consultation and when you are looking to do something
:14:25. > :14:27.contentious and difficult, doing a consultation and listening to that
:14:28. > :14:29.consultation is the right thing to do and it is exactly what happened.
:14:30. > :14:32.When it comes to welfare reform, Iain Duncan Smith argued, even
:14:33. > :14:40.though he has seen these things -- overseeing these things, everything
:14:41. > :14:45.has fallen apart from pensioner benefits. How does that square with
:14:46. > :14:49.the idea that we are in it together? The richest 1% in this country pay
:14:50. > :14:53.30% of all taxes, a higher figure than under Labour. The richest in
:14:54. > :14:58.society are paying their fair share, and in fact more than they used to.
:14:59. > :15:02.But I am asking about benefits. Iain Duncan Smith said the problem was
:15:03. > :15:06.the juxtaposition, what he saw as reductions to disability payments
:15:07. > :15:11.and then at the same time offering cuts, tax breaks, to the middle
:15:12. > :15:15.classes, with cuts in corporation tax, capital gains tax, and raising
:15:16. > :15:19.the threshold at which you pay the 40p tax rate. That is not we are all
:15:20. > :15:23.in this together. We will come to that but the biggest tax cut of all
:15:24. > :15:30.is raising the threshold from 6000 to 11,000 500. The biggest change
:15:31. > :15:37.disproportionately benefits people on low incomes.
:15:38. > :15:48.Keeping manifesto promises is a good thing, not a bad thing.
:15:49. > :15:53.One of the reasons why this country has create 2.4 million new jobs,
:15:54. > :15:58.more than the rest of Europe put together, is because we cut
:15:59. > :16:02.corporation tax from 28-17%, encouraging businesses to create
:16:03. > :16:06.jobs. The way to combat poverty and help people earn more money is by
:16:07. > :16:13.job creation. In fact, that is our strategy and it's working. It's not
:16:14. > :16:17.sustainable. . We are 4% of the world's economy but 7% of the
:16:18. > :16:21.world's welfare state spending so getting people off welfare and in
:16:22. > :16:26.work is the right thing for the country and for individuals. 2.3
:16:27. > :16:36.million jobs is something we can be proud of. There was a suggestion IDS
:16:37. > :16:39.has an Al tierior motive -- you will steerior motive, do you think he
:16:40. > :16:45.did? It's difficult to know what an individual is thinking. I won't go
:16:46. > :16:50.as far as questioning IDS's motives. Let's say he's concerned and it's a
:16:51. > :16:57.coincidence it helps his Out campaign. Does it help it? Well, I
:16:58. > :17:01.think he would probably think it destabilises the Government a little
:17:02. > :17:05.bit and any resignation does. I'm happen Foy take it at face value and
:17:06. > :17:10.happy to argue with him on his terms, as I think he's wrong on the
:17:11. > :17:13.basis of the facts. People on low incomes are as a matter-of-fact
:17:14. > :17:18.better off than five years ago. He should know. He's been the Work and
:17:19. > :17:22.Pensions Secretary for an awfully long time. If we take it at face
:17:23. > :17:27.value, that he was being authentic, particularly with the amount of work
:17:28. > :17:31.he's done on this issue, if he's saying this actually really is sort
:17:32. > :17:34.of attacking the very core of compassionate conservatism, that
:17:35. > :17:37.really damages David Cameron and George Osborne's leadership? I think
:17:38. > :17:42.IDS is simply wrong about that. If you look at the fact we are spending
:17:43. > :17:45.more money today on disability benefits, than in the past,
:17:46. > :17:49.including under the last Labour Government. The biggest ever
:17:50. > :17:53.increase in the minimum wage is coming, helping people on lower
:17:54. > :17:58.incomes, we are lifting millions of people out of income tax entirely,
:17:59. > :18:02.the lowest paid. All those things help people on low incomes and back
:18:03. > :18:09.to work. The record is one to be proud of. Tell even Crabb, where's
:18:10. > :18:14.he going to find the ?4 billion for... It's ?1 billion a year which
:18:15. > :18:19.is about 1% of the budget. Where should it come from? He needs to
:18:20. > :18:22.have a look at that, think very carefully and make sure people
:18:23. > :18:28.who're entitled to benefits claim them, particularly for the minor
:18:29. > :18:32.conditions. The issues with the PIPs, people were getting points,
:18:33. > :18:37.for example if people needed help getting their shoes on. That's not
:18:38. > :18:42.right. The proposals need fine tuning. Some things do need
:18:43. > :18:47.changing. The fundamental point is getting people off welfare, into
:18:48. > :18:52.work, more people on disabilitiesing than ever before and we need to see
:18:53. > :18:58.more than that -- on disabilities than ever before. Stay with us.
:18:59. > :19:02.IDS sat at the Cabinet table, he will have listened to discussions
:19:03. > :19:07.Pre-Budget, he's now resigning over a cut that isn't going to happen? It
:19:08. > :19:12.goes back to something more fundamental than the single cut. You
:19:13. > :19:16.saw it perhaps at its most clear in the general election when both David
:19:17. > :19:19.Cameron and George Osborne were talking about 12 billion cuts in
:19:20. > :19:26.welfare. But at the same time saying we are not going to cut Winter Fuel
:19:27. > :19:32.Payments for wealthy pensioners, we are not going to cut free travel for
:19:33. > :19:38.pensioners. He's got a budget of ?220 billion odd. Massive? So it's
:19:39. > :19:43.natural George would look there. Over ?120 billion of it is pensioner
:19:44. > :19:46.payments and that was off limits. He knew that because of the manifesto.
:19:47. > :19:52.He's known for a long time and must be decided it would be part of the
:19:53. > :19:55.discusses. He was exasperated by that happening time and time again.
:19:56. > :20:01.He was forced to find a cut in the area which, for him, is fundamental.
:20:02. > :20:05.This man's spent ten years of his life pretty much committed himself
:20:06. > :20:09.to helping out the working poor, getting them back on the escalator,
:20:10. > :20:14.off their backs because he believes they've ended up in that position
:20:15. > :20:18.because of bad luck or bad breaks, bad family things, schools,
:20:19. > :20:22.whatever. That's been fundamental. What he's I think felt over time,
:20:23. > :20:26.time and time again, is that he's been handicapped in that by the fact
:20:27. > :20:31.he's got to focus all his cuts, inevitably some cuts in this area,
:20:32. > :20:35.all the cuts in that area. Why did you resign now, that's the thing. He
:20:36. > :20:38.said the latest plan to restrict disability benefits was deeply
:20:39. > :20:42.unfair and we have been through that with Chris. Isn't the truth though
:20:43. > :20:45.that the original reform, the replacement of the Disability Living
:20:46. > :20:49.Allowance with the personal independence payment PIT has been an
:20:50. > :20:52.expensive fiasco, that's what it was called by the Public Accounts
:20:53. > :21:00.Committee and that happened entirely on Iain Duncan Smith's watch. It's
:21:01. > :21:04.expensive. That, as you said earlier, now looks withdrawn. He
:21:05. > :21:09.still faces the problem of finding ?4 billion over four years from that
:21:10. > :21:13.part of his budget. He's forced into that part of his budget which for
:21:14. > :21:17.him he's done it time and time again. Universal Credit is looking
:21:18. > :21:26.problematic because of the cost in constraint. All of that reflects a -
:21:27. > :21:29.he thinks I suspect an assault on the central area of reform he wants
:21:30. > :21:34.to bring about. As for why does it take him so long - to resign from a
:21:35. > :21:40.job which is the centre of what you have been trying to do is an
:21:41. > :21:45.incredibly painful thing to do. I know, I've been there. It's not easy
:21:46. > :21:52.to do. No, so if he wanted to stay committed to the cause that he has
:21:53. > :21:57.devoted so much time to, why did he resign at all unless there was an
:21:58. > :22:03.ulterior motive to leave to EU? I think that's absolute nonsense. Do
:22:04. > :22:07.you? Yes. Or did it poison Cabinet so much that he thought actually I'm
:22:08. > :22:12.going to lose my job anyway? I don't think so. I saw arguments in the
:22:13. > :22:15.Westminster village, most of it is nonsense. I don't know what the
:22:16. > :22:19.atmosphere was, I don't think it's difficult. I think actually the fact
:22:20. > :22:22.a referendum's been given's taken all of that poison out of the
:22:23. > :22:28.debate. It's inflicted the Tory party in the past, no doubt about
:22:29. > :22:32.it, but it's actually outside. You have Bill Cash and Bernard Jenkin
:22:33. > :22:36.saying you did the right thing to allow a referendum because it takes
:22:37. > :22:40.it outside Parliament, allows it to be a people's judgment. You can't
:22:41. > :22:44.really ignore the context of the EU referendum here though. Iain Duncan
:22:45. > :22:47.Smith was perhaps the most awkward and vociferous rebels against John
:22:48. > :22:54.Major's Government over the Maastricht Treaty so even though it
:22:55. > :22:57.didn't cause him to resign, collective responsibility's made
:22:58. > :23:03.people feel they can do things they have not Don previously? The press
:23:04. > :23:06.were excited about all the Cabinet Ministers being there and
:23:07. > :23:11.campaigning to vote Leave. They were in the photo because they were
:23:12. > :23:14.Cabinet Ministers. It gave them standing and leverage, normally the
:23:15. > :23:17.backbench wouldn't have that. Had Iain Duncan Smith said I'm against
:23:18. > :23:20.Europe, it wouldn't have made the back page, let alone the front-page
:23:21. > :23:26.of the newspapers. This is not about that. You have got to understand,
:23:27. > :23:30.Iain has been a man devoured by an aim... Also a bad relationship
:23:31. > :23:35.between him and George Osborne that's gone on for a very long time,
:23:36. > :23:41.very bad blood between them. Gossip columns... Oh, you know. People
:23:42. > :23:44.underestimate because I'm afraid political journalists underestimate
:23:45. > :23:47.that level of principle commitment. It's eaten him up over the years and
:23:48. > :23:53.that's why it's been so painful for him to leave. Principles, he should
:23:54. > :23:58.be a hero in Labour circles? This idea that he's a champion of the
:23:59. > :24:03.disabled and the low-paid and those who need help is nonsense.
:24:04. > :24:06.OK, he's recanted on personal independence payments, that is a
:24:07. > :24:11.good thing, but he was the biggest champion of the bedroom tax and two
:24:12. > :24:15.thirds of those who were hit by that ultimately were the disabled. But my
:24:16. > :24:20.bigger sadness is not that it's taken him so long to recant, but
:24:21. > :24:25.actually that if you look at polling on this and where the public are,
:24:26. > :24:29.because we are increasingly becoming such a segregated society, many
:24:30. > :24:33.people in work don't know people who're in receipt of benefits. You
:24:34. > :24:36.look at the bedroom tax, a substantial part of the population
:24:37. > :24:40.supported that, so one of the big questions is, how do we build
:24:41. > :24:46.stronger bonds between us so there's greater understanding. The villain
:24:47. > :24:50.of the peace here is George Osborne. He has, budget after budget, behaved
:24:51. > :24:53.like a conartist going around telling people that he has
:24:54. > :24:57.progressive budgets and those with the broader shoulders pay the
:24:58. > :25:03.heaviest burden when we know that is anything but the case. IDS, if you
:25:04. > :25:06.like, has exposed that in technicolour. That's why Jeremy
:25:07. > :25:11.Corbyn was right that George should look at his own position because
:25:12. > :25:15.he's ultimately responsible. I've got 788 people in my constituency in
:25:16. > :25:20.receipt of this personal independent payment who face having this cut
:25:21. > :25:23.unless hopefully we'll see a reversal. Sounds like it might be
:25:24. > :25:28.shelved. They have already been clobber bid the bedroom tax which
:25:29. > :25:33.was cruel beyond belief. Chris, is George Osborne's career finished in
:25:34. > :25:39.trying to go for the leadership on the basis of what Chuka said?
:25:40. > :25:45.Definitely not. Look at his record as Chancellor. We have had a massive
:25:46. > :25:48.minimum wage increase, unemployment's gone down enormously.
:25:49. > :26:01.We have created 2.3 million new jobs. Unememployment's fallen by a 5
:26:02. > :26:05.... 55... But Chris. David Willets, a minister in the last Parliament,
:26:06. > :26:09.the resolution foundation's very clear, it's a respected independent
:26:10. > :26:14.think-tank. The majority say, for example, of the income tax changes,
:26:15. > :26:17.which will occur, will disproportionately benefit the top
:26:18. > :26:21.10% of earners. You were wrong to suggest the low-paid will not be
:26:22. > :26:24.paying tax. Of course they will be paying tax, they'll be paying
:26:25. > :26:28.national insurance. This mantra, taking the low-paid out of tax all
:26:29. > :26:34.together, it's nonsense. Out of income tax. Come on! Come on, it has
:26:35. > :26:38.been a massive achievement of the coalition and this Government to
:26:39. > :26:43.take a lot of the lowest paid out of income tax. It's a significant
:26:44. > :26:47.component of their business. But hang on a second. You ought to
:26:48. > :26:52.recognise that. Tax Credits, taking those things away. Use offset things
:26:53. > :26:58.against that. You haven't been able to bring the party with you. Can he
:26:59. > :27:01.still be leader, George Osborne? If there is a leadership contest in the
:27:02. > :27:08.next few months, no, but beyond that, you know as well as I do, the
:27:09. > :27:13.memory span of the Westminster village is a few months. Really,
:27:14. > :27:19.amongst Tory MPs, they'll forgive him do you think? You will be his
:27:20. > :27:25.campaign manager! Thank you very much! Before we let
:27:26. > :27:31.Chris go, yes, you can announce your leadership! John Major famously
:27:32. > :27:36.referred to the bustards at the time of his treaty. Has Iain Duncan Smith
:27:37. > :27:40.graduated to that status again with his resignation? No, I find it hard
:27:41. > :27:44.to understand because he ran on the manifesto and we got a majority
:27:45. > :27:47.elected on the manifesto that included ?12 billion of welfare
:27:48. > :27:52.savings so he can't claim it's a surprise. The policy he was objected
:27:53. > :27:57.to, the PIPs will now be looked at again. So I find it surprising but I
:27:58. > :28:01.wouldn't describe him in those terms, no. Are you going to run the
:28:02. > :28:05.Chancellor's campaign for leadership then because you have defended him
:28:06. > :28:08.vigorously? Listen, I defend the Government and the Chancellor
:28:09. > :28:12.because I know they are doing a good job, there is no vacancy at the
:28:13. > :28:15.moment and there won't be for some time to come, so we shouldn't engage
:28:16. > :28:19.in speculation and we should focus on the job.
:28:20. > :28:22.On Sunday the European Union's deal with Turkey to stop the migrant flow
:28:23. > :28:24.from Turkey to Greece came into force.
:28:25. > :28:27.Syrian migrants and refugees who arrive in Greece are now
:28:28. > :28:29.expected to be sent back if their asylum claims
:28:30. > :28:32.Despite that hundreds of migrants have continued to arrive.The BBC's
:28:33. > :28:39.James Reynolds joins us now from Lesbos.
:28:40. > :28:48.Do migrants arriving realise the rules have changed?
:28:49. > :28:52.Not all of them. I was on the beach on Sunday morning as they cheered
:28:53. > :28:55.when they arrived. It was suggested to me that they simply didn't know
:28:56. > :28:59.the rules had changed and that they may not be able to stay in Europe
:29:00. > :29:03.all that long. I explained to some they might have to go back and they
:29:04. > :29:06.looked pretty devastated. The fact that more people have come today,
:29:07. > :29:13.this morning, several hundred of them from less boss, clearly
:29:14. > :29:16.indicates word's not crossed the Aegean that things have changed. In
:29:17. > :29:20.that case, there are going to be more and more people, if you like,
:29:21. > :29:24.stranded in Greece, some of them will be forcibly removed because
:29:25. > :29:28.they won't want to claim asylum there because they want to get the
:29:29. > :29:29.Germany, but what is going to happen to those people just sitting
:29:30. > :29:38.waiting? Two sets of people here, I don't
:29:39. > :29:41.want to go too much down a worm hole which might lose everyone if I try
:29:42. > :29:48.to explain it. But essentially you have got at the moment, 45,000 to
:29:49. > :29:52.50,000 migrants who will be abiding by the old rules, they are eligible
:29:53. > :29:56.to stay in Europe and to be relocated. The trouble for them is
:29:57. > :30:00.that no-one's stepped forward from Europe saying I'll have that lot, a
:30:01. > :30:04.few here and a few there, so those people might be stranded in Greece.
:30:05. > :30:09.The next lot, the second lot of people are those who've been
:30:10. > :30:14.arriving since Sunday. The European essentially says if they do not have
:30:15. > :30:19.the right to relocation, unless they have a valid asylum claim. If the
:30:20. > :30:24.claims which would take place, some of them behind me, are refused,
:30:25. > :30:29.they'll be turned back and taken to Turkey.
:30:30. > :30:32.Thank you. Apologies for the poor line. It is technically not very
:30:33. > :30:34.easy. We're joined by the Labour Peer Lord
:30:35. > :30:37.Dubs who has an amendment in the Lords today to give 3000
:30:38. > :30:48.unaccompanied child refugees Welcome to the Daily Politics.
:30:49. > :30:53.Before we get onto that amendment, it is early days, and do you think
:30:54. > :30:57.of this one out and one in system will work? To be honest, I don't
:30:58. > :31:01.know. The jury is out. The intention is a good one. That all people who
:31:02. > :31:05.have the intention of becoming refugees should be able to claim
:31:06. > :31:10.their status and have that status and the United Nations rules. Some
:31:11. > :31:14.people are coming in and are clearly would-be refugees. Others are just
:31:15. > :31:17.coming because it is another way of getting into Europe. I don't blame
:31:18. > :31:21.them for that but it does not qualify under the refugee
:31:22. > :31:24.Convention. You don't think there is something distasteful about a deal
:31:25. > :31:28.predicated on migrants crossing from Turkey to Greece create this one for
:31:29. > :31:34.one resettlement in Europe? If it works and it stops them leaving
:31:35. > :31:38.Turkey, then it will be successful, provided that other people know that
:31:39. > :31:42.the way to get into Europe is to claim refugee status, and if they
:31:43. > :31:45.qualify then they can come in. What evidence is there that this will
:31:46. > :31:49.deter anyone? We have seen the numbers turning up. James Reynolds
:31:50. > :31:53.has said that the new rule changes have not got through to everyone,
:31:54. > :31:56.but even when they do, do we think people wait to try and cross into
:31:57. > :32:02.Europe when they are being bombed and shelled at home? Well, it will
:32:03. > :32:06.have an effect. How big the effect is, we don't know, clearly. Look at
:32:07. > :32:11.it the other way round. When Angela Merkel said come to Germany, it went
:32:12. > :32:14.up. So I think it will go down. There are other aspects of the
:32:15. > :32:18.agreement that much more problematic than that but I think at least this
:32:19. > :32:22.may well reduce some of the flow, which means fewer people will die at
:32:23. > :32:27.CMU Mediterranean, which is the most important thing. I agree with that.
:32:28. > :32:34.I think we are capping the numbers we are taking at 70 2000. Yes, but
:32:35. > :32:44.the claims in Europe were over 1 million in 2015. -- we are capping
:32:45. > :32:52.the numbers at 72,000. Yes, but is it fair? Is that number of 72,000 a
:32:53. > :32:55.fair number? It is not a fair world. The system is grotesquely unfair and
:32:56. > :32:59.we have not found a way of dealing with it but this is an attempt to
:33:00. > :33:03.deal with one aspect of it. I think there is a misinformation put that
:33:04. > :33:10.goes on, as though this is the fault of the European Union. Isn't it? No.
:33:11. > :33:17.J Hardy is in the Middle East, growing problems, and if we were not
:33:18. > :33:23.in the European Union we would still have to grapple with this problem.
:33:24. > :33:27.Yes, but some people have legitimately, I think, it said is
:33:28. > :33:32.the EU cannot deal coherently with a problem like this then what is it
:33:33. > :33:36.for? They need to do a better job. On the discussion of how many people
:33:37. > :33:40.come in, I was talking about this in my speech today, that we need to
:33:41. > :33:44.have a bigger discussion about what happens when people settle here and
:33:45. > :33:48.how we had great damage to our communities. Be careful about that.
:33:49. > :33:52.It is clearly the case that Schengen makes it more difficult to deal
:33:53. > :33:55.with. A border free Europe makes migration flows more difficult to
:33:56. > :34:05.deal with, which is why there is such tension between many of the
:34:06. > :34:08.countries and Germany. When Angela Merkel said come to Germany, they
:34:09. > :34:11.came to Europe, not just in Germany. But we are not in Schengen. I am
:34:12. > :34:15.just making the point about how difficult it is for Europe to deal
:34:16. > :34:20.with it. This difficult eastern border which is difficult to man
:34:21. > :34:24.anyway. But if countries had taken quotas, it could have been handled
:34:25. > :34:29.in a more systematic way. You would still have the flood and the problem
:34:30. > :34:36.of managing where they are. Does it betray Europe's values? Shouldn't
:34:37. > :34:39.the EU deal with this crisis? They could have taken quotas, individual
:34:40. > :34:45.countries, rather than outsourcing the problem to Turkey at a price.
:34:46. > :34:48.You asking not complicated things. Angela Merkel has become a
:34:49. > :34:58.conscience of Europe. Who thought that would white meat -- who would
:34:59. > :35:04.have thought that would happen? If other people had taken on the burden
:35:05. > :35:09.sharing people, it would have been better, a better world. I think we
:35:10. > :35:13.should have tried to do that. I think we should have tried to share.
:35:14. > :35:18.Above all what we have got to do is find a way of stopping people
:35:19. > :35:22.drowning in the seas. We have got to find a way of assessing whether they
:35:23. > :35:26.are refugees or not. Other people come in as well and they don't claim
:35:27. > :35:30.to be refugees. We have got to find a way of doing that and this latest
:35:31. > :35:39.effort is an attempt to do that, so to this extent, it is fair. As for
:35:40. > :35:42.the price to Turkey, should we be relying on Turkey? Poor human rights
:35:43. > :35:45.record, freedom of the press is curtailed, so is this the country we
:35:46. > :35:51.should be doing this sort of deal with? To be honest, I am not sure we
:35:52. > :35:55.have any choice. They are the ones geographically in that position and
:35:56. > :35:59.ensuring that we provide aid and support, and I think we are the
:36:00. > :36:02.second-biggest contributor to that, so that people aren't making that
:36:03. > :36:06.dangerous journey but they are closest to the territory from which
:36:07. > :36:11.they have come, that is an important part of this. There is not one magic
:36:12. > :36:15.solution to this. You need a sweep of measures. I worry about different
:36:16. > :36:19.aspects of the deal. I don't worry about the exchange. That is sensible
:36:20. > :36:24.and I don't worry about the subsidy. Visa free access to everybody with
:36:25. > :36:27.Turkish papers is incredibly dangerous for European security,
:36:28. > :36:30.because we know the Turkish Government has been helpful to Isil
:36:31. > :36:41.and other jihadist groups, so what is to tell you the people the
:36:42. > :36:44.Turkish papers are definitely takes? There is a serious issue hidden it
:36:45. > :36:46.behind some sensible measures. What do you make of Lord Dubs's proposal
:36:47. > :36:49.to take in 3000 unaccompanied children? We don't know. The British
:36:50. > :36:55.Government has tried a number of things in advance of other
:36:56. > :36:58.countries. We were the first to put money into countries around Syria,
:36:59. > :37:01.and we are talking about large sums and I think we are still the
:37:02. > :37:04.second-biggest in the world. We have tried to say that we will take
:37:05. > :37:10.children from camps there because that will not have a pull factor
:37:11. > :37:14.effect. That is still part of the 20,000? I think there is some
:37:15. > :37:20.addition now, new proposal in the few days. I think the Government has
:37:21. > :37:25.done a good job of trying to balance those two problems and I don't know
:37:26. > :37:29.the details of this. The argument in favour of my amendment this
:37:30. > :37:33.afternoon is that there are estimated to be 24,000 unaccompanied
:37:34. > :37:36.child refugees in Europe. These children are possibly in Greece,
:37:37. > :37:41.possibly Italy, possibly near Calais. They are vulnerable to
:37:42. > :37:45.people traffickers, vulnerable to criminality, vulnerable to being
:37:46. > :37:49.lured into prostitution. We owe them safety. The point of my amendment is
:37:50. > :37:54.that 3000 would-be Britain's share of the larger total. We could handle
:37:55. > :37:59.that. In 1938 we had 10,000 unaccompanied children coming in and
:38:00. > :38:04.I was one of them. These are 3000. I think we can manage that. The crisis
:38:05. > :38:07.is pretty severe, having young people homeless, adrift, sleeping in
:38:08. > :38:13.the streets. We can't let that go on. How are you doing in terms of
:38:14. > :38:20.getting support? Ask me later today! I am delighted that the public
:38:21. > :38:24.response has been as it is. One backbencher like me would not
:38:25. > :38:26.normally attract that kind of attention. People have said they
:38:27. > :38:31.welcome it and we know people who have offered to be foster parents.
:38:32. > :38:36.They have got to be vetted and so on. I think it is astonishing and I
:38:37. > :38:40.am delighted. I think too often in the immigration debate it is boils
:38:41. > :38:45.down to numbers. Because of the targets that the Home Secretary has
:38:46. > :38:49.set. In the end we are talking about human beings. We are talking about
:38:50. > :38:54.individuals. I think in the end as human beings we should do what we
:38:55. > :39:01.can. I think 3000 compared to the 11,000 that we took in in the 1930s
:39:02. > :39:06.is doable. The reason it boils down to numbers is... It doesn't. It is
:39:07. > :39:15.human beings and that is my point. We don't distinguish between
:39:16. > :39:20.refugees and... In my amendment. I know, but we are just answering this
:39:21. > :39:26.point. The numbers have grown explosively. Economic migrants,
:39:27. > :39:29.exactly, that is my point. Lord Leavey threatened to resign this
:39:30. > :39:33.week are less Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, made it absolutely
:39:34. > :39:37.clear that anti-Semitism will not be tolerated in the Labour Party and he
:39:38. > :39:42.said he has not gone far enough in cracking down on it. That Jeremy
:39:43. > :39:46.Corbyn do more on that issue? I was at the meeting on Monday and he was
:39:47. > :39:49.asked about this and he said adamantly that they totally abhor
:39:50. > :39:55.racism and anti-Semitism, so it depends how much people hear what he
:39:56. > :40:01.says. But you say there is a problem of anti-Semitism among some elements
:40:02. > :40:07.of the far left. Jeremy Corbyn has already said that he despises racism
:40:08. > :40:13.and anti-Semitism that is enough being done in the far left? Baroness
:40:14. > :40:17.Royle is carrying out an investigation into what has happened
:40:18. > :40:21.at the Oxford University Labour Club. It would be disingenuous to
:40:22. > :40:24.deny that on fringes of the left their having problems with
:40:25. > :40:28.anti-Semitism but if anyone can lead the charge in stamping it out and
:40:29. > :40:34.showing zero tolerance to it, it is Jeremy. I am hopeful that he will do
:40:35. > :40:38.that because we cannot stand for any discrimination or prejudice of any
:40:39. > :40:43.type whatsoever in the Labour Party. I am dismayed that we are seeing the
:40:44. > :40:46.reports that we are seeing but is beholden on us to stamp it out and
:40:47. > :40:49.deal with it. I think that it absolutely clear and I agree with
:40:50. > :40:54.you entirely but we have got to be careful that when people at critical
:40:55. > :40:57.of Israeli Government policies, they are not accused of being
:40:58. > :40:59.anti-Semitic, and some people merge the two and they are clearly totally
:41:00. > :41:02.different. Yes. Thank you. Did you know you could get fined
:41:03. > :41:05.for carrying golf bags And you're not allowed out
:41:06. > :41:08.after 11pm if you're under It's all down to what's called
:41:09. > :41:12.Public Space Protection Orders, essentially powers given to councils
:41:13. > :41:14.in England and Wales to deal They've been seen by some
:41:15. > :41:18.as the son of the ASBO, and in certain areas are proving
:41:19. > :41:20.just as controversial. Ellie and producer Sam have
:41:21. > :41:26.been to find out more in Hillingdon, and we should say no
:41:27. > :41:29.Public Space Protection Orders were breached in the
:41:30. > :41:31.making of this film. Welcome to the London Borough
:41:32. > :41:33.of Hillingdon, where the council has It means you can get
:41:34. > :41:38.into trouble for doing certain things like gathering
:41:39. > :41:40.in groups of two or more. So Sam, my esteemed colleague and I,
:41:41. > :41:48.decided to go into the shopping centre there and loiter,
:41:49. > :41:54.where we could get fined up to ?100. Similarly, in the same area,
:41:55. > :41:58.if I decided it would be easier for me to get around
:41:59. > :42:00.by skateboard, I could In other parts of Hillingdon
:42:01. > :42:07.it is not the skateboard they are worried about
:42:08. > :42:09.but cars, specifically stationary or parked cars,
:42:10. > :42:12.left with their engines running. Sam, have you left
:42:13. > :42:14.the engine running? The idea behind it is to combat
:42:15. > :42:22.anti-social behaviour. In set areas there is a ban
:42:23. > :42:25.on spitting, and drinking alcohol It is stopping people for example
:42:26. > :42:31.gathering in groups of more People mustn't spit
:42:32. > :42:45.on the roads and that. The council has got
:42:46. > :42:50.powers to stop and fine you if you are in that shopping
:42:51. > :42:53.centre standing more than one of you, standing
:42:54. > :42:55.together in a group. They are worried about
:42:56. > :42:57.anti-social behaviour. Why should we be fined
:42:58. > :43:02.for standing in a place? You know if there is
:43:03. > :43:13.a group of elderly people standing there,
:43:14. > :43:15.they will not get fined. Using a skateboard, pedal cycles,
:43:16. > :43:18.rollerskates, rollerblades or other similar devices could land yourself
:43:19. > :43:20.with a fine of ?100. I agree with that because they whizz
:43:21. > :43:24.around and you have to put your brakes on really quickly
:43:25. > :43:25.because you nearly Hillingdon isn't the only council
:43:26. > :43:39.that's issued these Public Space One civil rights group
:43:40. > :43:42.suggests there are at least The Local Government
:43:43. > :43:45.Association says they offer a quicker response
:43:46. > :43:47.than prosecuting offenders Surely the idea behind
:43:48. > :43:50.this is just to give local councils the power to deal
:43:51. > :43:52.with local problems. Well, it is all very well
:43:53. > :43:55.for public authorities to say, "We are going to pass these very
:43:56. > :43:58.vague and broad orders but you can trust us only to enforce them
:43:59. > :44:01.in the right circumstances." We think that is wholly incompatible
:44:02. > :44:03.with the rule of law. These orders create
:44:04. > :44:09.criminal offences. When you are talking about criminal
:44:10. > :44:11.offences people should be able whether or not they are on the wrong
:44:12. > :44:16.side or the right side of the law and this kind of discretion is not
:44:17. > :44:19.compatible with civil liberties. We did approach Hillingdon
:44:20. > :44:21.Council for an interview Maybe they were worried
:44:22. > :44:32.about being caught in a group of two I am very pleased to say they
:44:33. > :44:34.managed to avoid arrest or finds in that film.
:44:35. > :44:37.We're joined now by the Opposition Leader for Hammersmith
:44:38. > :44:39.Fulham Council, Greg Smith, who for eight years was in charge
:44:40. > :44:55.Some of these offences sound bizarre. Standing in a pan left your
:44:56. > :45:01.after bus stop, that is Hillingdon Council's take on this. That is
:45:02. > :45:04.surely a mistake. I think so. I am all for localism. When something
:45:05. > :45:10.serious in a locality blows up and it is affecting people's lives,
:45:11. > :45:13.noise, kids not being able to sleep, or not being able to get to achieve
:45:14. > :45:18.station, as we had in Hammersmith and Fulham about ten years ago, but
:45:19. > :45:22.the council to be able to react quickly for a short period of time
:45:23. > :45:29.to solve that problem, that is what I am in favour of. Is it OK to have
:45:30. > :45:35.a power where you are not allowed to assemble in groups of more than one?
:45:36. > :45:40.We are seeing an increase in rough sleeping particularly in London. The
:45:41. > :45:43.way to deal with that is not to criminalise a whole group of people
:45:44. > :45:48.but is actually to ensure we build more homes and we have a massive
:45:49. > :45:52.problem on that in London. Secondly, I worry about it disproportionately
:45:53. > :45:57.being used against young people who increasingly are stereotyped and
:45:58. > :46:01.demonised in British society and too often a are kind of painted as a
:46:02. > :46:05.problem simply by convening together in a particular place. Yes because
:46:06. > :46:09.what do you expect young people toe do? If they meet with friends with
:46:10. > :46:14.skate boards, surely that's not a criminal offence? Totally. I'm not
:46:15. > :46:19.suggesting I would want to see... Some local councils are? Sure. I
:46:20. > :46:26.can't speak for other local councils, that's for them to answer.
:46:27. > :46:32.Certainly I wouldn't want to see in Hammersmith or Fulham, restrictions
:46:33. > :46:35.on one or two Kong are gating. For inexplicable reasons sometimes,
:46:36. > :46:40.certain locations become megahotspots where suddenly you find
:46:41. > :46:44.hundreds of people congregating in often small places, housing estates,
:46:45. > :46:49.which is the way a lot were built in London makes them... And is
:46:50. > :46:53.intimidating? Stops kids sleeping, and we need to do something about
:46:54. > :46:58.it. Some of the evidence shows that it works apparently, for a short
:46:59. > :47:01.period of time, as Greg was saying, to troubleshoot in local areas, if
:47:02. > :47:06.you want to devolve powers, this is what you get? It depends how wide
:47:07. > :47:09.the pow, you are that you devolve. This allows councils to translate
:47:10. > :47:14.what would be a civil offence into a criminal offence. That is a power
:47:15. > :47:18.devolution too far. I have a lot of sympathy with Greg's public order
:47:19. > :47:23.issues and to some extent the police should deal with that as well. This
:47:24. > :47:28.sort of thing can focus on rough sleepers, religious preachers and
:47:29. > :47:35.people having a demo and using a megaphone. This is too broadly
:47:36. > :47:42.drawn. So does it need to be... You narrow it down. So it's too broad.
:47:43. > :47:47.Don't forget, often you end up with displacement. An issue in my borough
:47:48. > :47:52.is prostitution. What you often find - I mean we are doing an inquiry on
:47:53. > :47:58.the Home Affairs Select Committee on this now - but once you have moved
:47:59. > :48:02.it from one area, you are simply displacing it to another place where
:48:03. > :48:06.actually you need to get to grips with why it's happening. I have
:48:07. > :48:09.sympathy with my constituencies, why is it that young people haven't got
:48:10. > :48:12.enough to do? There are loads of different reasons for that which we
:48:13. > :48:13.could fill a whole programme talking about. We'll leave you to think
:48:14. > :48:16.about that. Thank you very much. Now, we've spent quite a lot of time
:48:17. > :48:19.discussing the EU referendum but there are some other rather
:48:20. > :48:21.important elections taking Here's our handy Daily Politics
:48:22. > :48:26.guide. There are seven sets
:48:27. > :48:29.of elections happening in May, all of which will take
:48:30. > :48:31.place on the same day, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland
:48:32. > :48:35.will hold national elections. There are 60 seats up for grabs
:48:36. > :48:38.in the Welsh Assembly. The Scottish Parliament
:48:39. > :48:42.will elect 129 seats, where the SNP currently
:48:43. > :48:44.holds a majority. And in Northern Ireland
:48:45. > :48:47.there are 108 seats which will be decided for representatives
:48:48. > :48:50.to the Northern Ireland Assembly. Across England there are local
:48:51. > :48:56.government elections.124 councils 35 Metropolitan councils,
:48:57. > :49:02.19 unitary authorities And four cities in England
:49:03. > :49:06.will elect Mayors, London, Londoners will also elect members
:49:07. > :49:13.to the London Assembly And finally, voters in 41 police
:49:14. > :49:19.forces in England and Wales will elect a Police
:49:20. > :49:22.and Crime Commissioner. And we're joined now from Glasgow
:49:23. > :49:33.by the elections expert How important are the local
:49:34. > :49:38.elections bearing in mind just over a month is the EU referendum? Well,
:49:39. > :49:41.you use the word local elections but I think people in Northern Ireland,
:49:42. > :49:45.Wales and Scotland would dispute that. For them, as you said, in your
:49:46. > :49:50.earlier piece, these are national elections. The truth is, this is the
:49:51. > :49:54.biggest set of mid term elections between now, certainly and 2019 when
:49:55. > :49:58.we get the European elections. The truth is for Scotland, Wales and
:49:59. > :50:02.Northern Ireland, their devolved assemblies are now clearly, for many
:50:03. > :50:05.things, the principled body that makes decisions in those parts of
:50:06. > :50:09.the UK. For London of course it's the London Mayor and that's become a
:50:10. > :50:13.really important office inside the capital. The Police and Crime
:50:14. > :50:16.Commissioner as well, the truth is many people struggle to understand
:50:17. > :50:18.what that is about and they had an appallingly low turnout when the
:50:19. > :50:22.first elections were held in November 2012. Again, the local
:50:23. > :50:26.elections in England for people who have them, again, they'll determine
:50:27. > :50:29.their local councils. This is certainly a big, important set of
:50:30. > :50:33.elections. There's real power at stake here and, to that extent at
:50:34. > :50:36.least, it will help shape the future of British politics through the next
:50:37. > :50:40.four or five years. Let's look at Scotland. How do you rate Labour's
:50:41. > :50:43.chances in terms of any recovery there.
:50:44. > :50:48.Zero is almost the answer to that question. Right. The Labour Party is
:50:49. > :50:55.struggling north of the border, it has been ever since the 2014
:50:56. > :50:58.independence referendum. Since then, politics in Scotland has been
:50:59. > :51:02.primarily about are you for or against independence. Most who voted
:51:03. > :51:09.yes look as though they are determined to vote for the SNP and
:51:10. > :51:14.there's about a fifth of people who'll be willing to vote for the
:51:15. > :51:17.SNP even though they didn't vote for independence because they like the
:51:18. > :51:19.idea of SNP standing up for Scotland. The opinion polls at the
:51:20. > :51:23.moment in Scotland put Labour at around a fifth of the vote, which,
:51:24. > :51:26.if that were to transpire into the ballot boxes would be the party's
:51:27. > :51:32.worst performance in any elections since and including the first
:51:33. > :51:35.contest in 1918. So the SNP unassailable there because I presume
:51:36. > :51:38.the Tories won't do much better than they are at the moment? Absolutely
:51:39. > :51:42.correct. The Conservatives in Scotland look as though they are
:51:43. > :51:45.towards the high end of the range within which they have been
:51:46. > :51:51.oscillating ever since 1997 when they got a whitewash in the UK
:51:52. > :51:59.general election. The polls putting them at around 17-18% and that's led
:52:00. > :52:03.to excitement to speculation whether the Tories can get ahead of Labour.
:52:04. > :52:07.It's second place over which there was excitement is not much
:52:08. > :52:11.excitement over first. Just finally, the Mayoral election
:52:12. > :52:17.in London, how important is that? Oh, this is undoubtedly important
:52:18. > :52:19.because this is probably Jeremy Corbyn's best prospect of emerging
:52:20. > :52:26.out of these elections with good news. Back in 2008 when the London
:52:27. > :52:30.Mayoral contest was last, sorry, back in 2012 when the London Mayoral
:52:31. > :52:35.contest was fought, Boris Johnson won, even though the party won to
:52:36. > :52:38.the Greater London Assembly, he was perfectly clear it was a personal
:52:39. > :52:42.vote for Boris Johnson. Zac Goldsmith doesn't have the same
:52:43. > :52:47.personal vote, credit to him. The truth is, the opinion polls suggest
:52:48. > :52:51.Sadiq Khan ought to wear the London Mayoral election and indeed Jeremy
:52:52. > :52:56.Corbyn badly needs him to, because it could well be the case that it's
:52:57. > :52:58.in London that the best news for the Labour Party comes.
:52:59. > :53:00.Back to the fall-out from Iain Duncan Smith's resignation.
:53:01. > :53:03.The self-styled quiet man of British politics certainly didn't go out
:53:04. > :53:06.quietly yesterday when he appeared on the Andrew Marr Show.
:53:07. > :53:09.Here he is responding to criticisms that his departure had more to do
:53:10. > :53:11.with his opposition to the Prime Minister
:53:12. > :53:14.and Chancellor's stance on the EU than concern for the disadvantaged.
:53:15. > :53:16.I care for one thing and one thing only.
:53:17. > :53:20.It is that the people that don't get the opportunities that my children
:53:21. > :53:27.I want them given that opportunity and everything I have tried to do
:53:28. > :53:31.Yes, we can debate some of those things that people didn't
:53:32. > :53:34.like because they are more about the deficit than about welfare
:53:35. > :53:37.reform, but overarchingly what I am passionate about is getting that
:53:38. > :53:41.reform done so society is reformed, so we have more of those people
:53:42. > :53:44.who have been left behind brought back into the sphere and the arena
:53:45. > :53:50.We're joined now by Trevor Kavanagh of the Sun and Polly Toynbee
:53:51. > :53:59.Welcome both of you. How much did the EU referendum play a part in
:54:00. > :54:04.Iain Duncan Smith's decision to go at this point? I think the two
:54:05. > :54:08.things are inseparable. I don't believe Iain would have left had the
:54:09. > :54:13.European Union referendum not been under way. I think he was driven by
:54:14. > :54:16.other motives which of course as he's explained very clearly, but I
:54:17. > :54:19.don't think he was unconscious of the impact his resignation would
:54:20. > :54:24.have on the Brexit campaign. Do you think he thought he was going to be
:54:25. > :54:28.dumped anyway after the referendum? As I understand it, that'ses the way
:54:29. > :54:31.things are shaping up. They also probably thought his Universal
:54:32. > :54:37.Credit scheme was going to be ditched or frozen and I think that
:54:38. > :54:40.he decided that all of that was, there was another battle to fight
:54:41. > :54:45.which was Europe and he decided to fight that too. How does Labour make
:54:46. > :54:51.the most out of this in terms of it improving its chances? Well, I think
:54:52. > :54:56.it partly just sits and watches the bodies float by beside the river. I
:54:57. > :55:00.think that what Iain Duncan Smith has done is to deliver a devastating
:55:01. > :55:06.blow to the authority of the Prime Minister and the Chancellor and the
:55:07. > :55:12.referendum campaign depends crucially on their authority. This
:55:13. > :55:15.is very risky and Labour has to be careful not to do anything to
:55:16. > :55:21.unsettle the campaign. Labour is united in wanting to stay in Europe.
:55:22. > :55:25.Up to a point. Well, two Maveriks. A few more than two, but... Very few.
:55:26. > :55:29.It's extraordinary and I think Labour has to keep its eye on the
:55:30. > :55:32.ball about that referendum campaign and understand that what Iain Duncan
:55:33. > :55:35.Smith is doing is undermining that. It's a difficult game to play
:55:36. > :55:40.because of course, the other thing is that everything Iain Duncan Smith
:55:41. > :55:45.says now utterly utterly overturns everything he's done. The sheer
:55:46. > :55:50.cruelty of what he's imposed on people knowingly, of what goes on in
:55:51. > :55:54.his Jobcentres that he's instructed to sanction people, to throw people
:55:55. > :55:58.off benefits for almost nothing. Is it the end of compassionate
:55:59. > :56:02.conservatism though either for the reasons Polly's put forward thatty
:56:03. > :56:08.was in it all the way up to his next if you want to view it that way in
:56:09. > :56:12.terms of welfare, or his very well laid out arguments yesterday on the
:56:13. > :56:15.Marr programme that he was on a mission and he doesn't trust the
:56:16. > :56:17.Government to deliver that mission any more actually, and that is
:56:18. > :56:22.devastating for David Cameron and George Osborne? I think they could
:56:23. > :56:26.argue that they have been successful with compassionate Conservatives.
:56:27. > :56:31.There are a million more jobs created. They have to do something
:56:32. > :56:36.about a ?100 billion budget on welfare, we can't afford it. The big
:56:37. > :56:40.mistake was to ringfence pensions and Jeffers seas aid. Because that
:56:41. > :56:44.doesn't leave them many options. What does it go d to George
:56:45. > :56:48.Osborne's leadership chances? I think at this staining they are
:56:49. > :56:54.finished. All together -- at this stage. David Davis said they are
:56:55. > :56:58.finished for now? I don't think there's any hope of him becoming
:56:59. > :57:03.leader and the Labour Party must be, it must be music to their ears, they
:57:04. > :57:06.must be thinking, if only we'd picked someone other than Jeremy
:57:07. > :57:10.Corbyn, they could be cashing in on this. In fact, all this cashing in,
:57:11. > :57:16.the stuff about the personalities, it's a very... It's a principle
:57:17. > :57:25.isn't it? There is a human face to what was going on. I've got 780
:57:26. > :57:28.people who're in receipt of personal independence payments, keen to see
:57:29. > :57:32.what is going to happen to them and in the end, people have come in,
:57:33. > :57:35.there have been reports of people who've committed suicide in my
:57:36. > :57:41.constituency because of the harsh cruelty of what the welfare changes
:57:42. > :57:45.are. I don't even like calling it welfare, we are calling it social
:57:46. > :57:50.security. It's a human face and a reality. I don't care about
:57:51. > :57:54.Osborne's career... I talked to Iain about this. I can tell you, this is
:57:55. > :57:58.the passion of his life, welfare reform, getting people back into
:57:59. > :58:01.work was what he cared about. Actually, in that respect, this
:58:02. > :58:06.Government's been phenomenally successful. Interesting that all his
:58:07. > :58:12.defenders are people like you who are Brexiters. People like Bernard
:58:13. > :58:15.Jenkins never in his life expressed any tenderness towards the poor,
:58:16. > :58:22.suddenly everyone is weeping crocodile tears. Is there Civil War
:58:23. > :58:27.in the Tory party do weaning? Absolutely and it's only just
:58:28. > :58:31.started. A bit of time for the quiz. Do you treble question, where is
:58:32. > :58:43.David Cameron fleeing to this Easter?
:58:44. > :58:53.Thank you for joining us. See you tomorrow at noon with the big
:58:54. > :59:05.political stories of the day. Bye. ..and that's what
:59:06. > :59:07.she felt with the blues. Most people can be oblivious
:59:08. > :59:13.to what's going on around them,