:00:36. > :00:38.Hello, and welcome to the Daily Politics.
:00:39. > :00:42.Just one month to go until Britain votes in the referendum on EU
:00:43. > :00:45.membership, and both sides are turning up the volume.
:00:46. > :00:51.The Prime Minister and Chancellor are warning of a "DIY recession"
:00:52. > :00:52.lasting a year, should we vote to leave.
:00:53. > :00:57.Their opponents say their forecast is "fantastical".
:00:58. > :00:59.Meanwhile, Leave campaigners continue to push their message
:01:00. > :01:02.that the NHS would be better off out of the EU, despite claims
:01:03. > :01:05.from some senior figures within the health service.
:01:06. > :01:08.Questions over the Conservatives' election spending continue.
:01:09. > :01:10.We'll speak to the SNP MP who's reported the Tories
:01:11. > :01:19.And, the journalist Rachel Johnson will be here to tell us
:01:20. > :01:21.about her campaign to change the planning laws, and stop
:01:22. > :01:23.her wealthy neighbours digging down to create
:01:24. > :01:41.And, with us for the whole of the programme today, two MPs
:01:42. > :01:44.who are going to spend the next month arguing over Britain's future,
:01:45. > :01:48.But we know they like each other really, underneath!
:01:49. > :01:50.It's the former Conservative Defence Secretary and Leave
:01:51. > :01:58.And the Labour MP David Lammy, he's supporting a vote to Remain.
:01:59. > :02:03.So, in four weeks' time, voters will be going to the polls.
:02:04. > :02:05.And, as we pass that landmark, the claims and counterclaims
:02:06. > :02:09.The might of the Treasury machine has been brought to bear
:02:10. > :02:11.by the Remain camp this morning, with their latest warning
:02:12. > :02:19.While their opponents in the Leave camp are pursuing their own favoured
:02:20. > :02:22.messages on the potential benefit of leaving for the NHS, and
:02:23. > :02:29.So, let's take you though some of those big claims.
:02:30. > :02:35.David Cameron and George Osborne have released a Treasury
:02:36. > :02:38.report warning that Britain would enter a year-long, so-called
:02:39. > :02:39.DIY recession, with the economy
:02:40. > :02:43.Meanwhile, Leave campaigner Penny Mordaunt has launched
:02:44. > :02:46.a new push highlighting the possible risks of Turkish accession
:02:47. > :02:48.to the EU, focussing on David Cameron's call to "pave
:02:49. > :02:53.the road from Ankara to Brussels."
:02:54. > :02:57.The fight this week will also centre on the role the EU plays in the NHS,
:02:58. > :02:58.with its chief executive Simon Stevens yesterday
:02:59. > :03:06.claiming exiting would cost staff and resources.
:03:07. > :03:09.Those campaigning to Leave have launched a new TV advert
:03:10. > :03:11.which argues the reverse, saying health service could benefit
:03:12. > :03:18.by up to an extra ?350 million a week after a Brexit.
:03:19. > :03:20.In Wales, the leaders of Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru
:03:21. > :03:22.have put aside their differences to back Remain.
:03:23. > :03:24.Carwyn Jones and Leanne Wood said that Wales was "stronger,
:03:25. > :03:31.safer and better off in Europe".
:03:32. > :03:33.But one friendship appears to have hit the buffers,
:03:34. > :03:37.with David Cameron's policy guru Steve Hilton today arguing that
:03:38. > :03:42.So, those are some of the big campaign issues.
:03:43. > :03:45.Let's begin by talking about one of them, and that's the possibility
:03:46. > :04:03.Gentlemen, if you look at the vote the poster, Turkey, population of 76
:04:04. > :04:06.million is joining the EU. David Lammy, will that happen?
:04:07. > :04:11.Historically, the Germans and French have been against it. We are
:04:12. > :04:16.certainly lukewarm about it. It came up in discussion in relation
:04:17. > :04:21.to the refugees in the last few months, and a deal that was done
:04:22. > :04:24.that is seen to put this way into the long grass, so it is not
:04:25. > :04:30.reality. I might say my constituencies, with
:04:31. > :04:37.the largest Turkish speaking publishing in Britain, 18,000
:04:38. > :04:41.Cypriots from the 2011 census, 50,000 Turkish speaking former
:04:42. > :04:48.Kurds. They are really contributing to our economy. This is whipping up
:04:49. > :04:50.a storm. To get a debate about immigration, not the EU, I
:04:51. > :04:55.suspect... If it was on the table because talks
:04:56. > :04:59.are supposed to have been energised, would you be in favour of Turkey
:05:00. > :05:04.joining in the next five years? Not as of today. That is
:05:05. > :05:09.scaremongering, Project Fear by your side?
:05:10. > :05:12.The aim is to get Turkey into the European Union. The European Union
:05:13. > :05:17.game. And Britain? British Government
:05:18. > :05:23.policy to support Turkish policy of the EU. The Gwent has always been
:05:24. > :05:28.that it would help push the Turkish political process towards the norms
:05:29. > :05:34.of the EU. But, how do you get a country of 80
:05:35. > :05:38.million people into the EU while used to have free movement? And the
:05:39. > :05:43.problems that could have caused with mass migration inside the EU? That
:05:44. > :05:48.risk is still there, it is not being addressed. We have not stand the
:05:49. > :05:52.concept of free movement of people, that is the biggest roadblock to
:05:53. > :05:57.their membership. Because of the veto which Penny
:05:58. > :06:00.Morduant incorrectly said we didn't have, the likelihood of Turkey ever
:06:01. > :06:05.joining the EU in the foreseeable future is off the cards?
:06:06. > :06:11.Turkey was able to use the migrant crisis to its benefit. It hasn't got
:06:12. > :06:18.Visa free movement yet. You see the influence Turkey is
:06:19. > :06:22.wielding. And you see the risks that if Turkey were to join along with
:06:23. > :06:22.wielding. And you see the risks that Albania and others, that principle
:06:23. > :06:29.of free movement would mean potentially huge migrations across
:06:30. > :06:32.Europe in search of work. David Cameron was
:06:33. > :06:35.Europe in search of work. yesterday Britain does have a veto,
:06:36. > :06:41.which he exercised it? If you look back at his track record, he has
:06:42. > :06:44.been in favour as Liam Fox has said of Turkish accession, he championed
:06:45. > :06:49.it. I am confident, as of today, he
:06:50. > :06:53.would, because of the situation in Europe finds itself in. Alongside
:06:54. > :06:57.him would be the Germans who are clear they don't want Turkey coming
:06:58. > :07:01.into the EU, and the French. It isn't going to happen, it was
:07:02. > :07:04.doubtful before the crash, very doubtful as of today.
:07:05. > :07:13.It is doubtful. So you are because of a British Government
:07:14. > :07:20.veto, even if you doubt David because of a British Government
:07:21. > :07:21.I don't believe it is out of the question for Turkey to join, it is
:07:22. > :07:33.clear question for Turkey to join, it is
:07:34. > :07:38.Once we have decided to stay in the EU and we are locked in, it is 41
:07:39. > :07:41.years since we last had a choice, who is to say we won't have all
:07:42. > :07:51.these countries in number four way are given another say.
:07:52. > :07:58.And the year 3000... David Cameron said... Did you not believe him?
:07:59. > :08:02.They think they can predict these numbers far out. It is the
:08:03. > :08:07.Government policy to see Turkey come in, and the EU.
:08:08. > :08:13.Every expert over the weekend in terms of EU put it said it is
:08:14. > :08:17.unlikely. Alongside the poster, Leave campaigners claimed Britain
:08:18. > :08:21.will open the doors to high levels of mergers, terrorists and
:08:22. > :08:24.kidnappers from Turkey, is that responsible?
:08:25. > :08:26.You need to look at the whole position.
:08:27. > :08:31.That claim... I wouldn't use those exact words.
:08:32. > :08:34.You can see that there are commuter seen what has happened in recent
:08:35. > :08:40.days with those coming into the EU. We don't know whether they are
:08:41. > :08:43.economic migrants, refugees, sympathises with terrorist
:08:44. > :08:48.movements. When they get citizenship, the point is, of any EU
:08:49. > :08:51.country, they have a right to settle in the UK.
:08:52. > :08:55.You support those words to mark the problem is that you would not know
:08:56. > :08:59.who got citizenship. That could be a real fear, opening
:09:00. > :09:05.the door to people, you don't know who they are and they do.
:09:06. > :09:09.I think, more night, less heat. It is not imminent, it is not
:09:10. > :09:14.happening. We are whipping up a storm about the problem is not on
:09:15. > :09:18.the cards. Turkey would like to come in but it is absolutely cleared the
:09:19. > :09:22.three major countries in Europe do not want them.
:09:23. > :09:26.On the wider point you have just raised, we know there are millions
:09:27. > :09:31.of migrants entering the EU, we don't know who they are. When they
:09:32. > :09:35.are given citizenship. They are entering the Schengen area,
:09:36. > :09:40.not Britain. How many years does it take for
:09:41. > :09:44.someone to get citizenship? Between two and three. I think you
:09:45. > :09:49.will find it is seven or eight, if you look at the list.
:09:50. > :09:53.Not two years. But when they do, they will have a right to settle in
:09:54. > :09:58.the UK. We have no means of stopping them. If we vote to stay, we have no
:09:59. > :10:03.means of controlling our border in terms of which EU citizens have a
:10:04. > :10:07.right to settle in the UK. That is the fear many people have.
:10:08. > :10:14.Immigration has been something the Leave campaign will focus on.
:10:15. > :10:20.Remain on the economy. Another area opening up fierce debate is the NHS
:10:21. > :10:26.over the weekend. Simon Stephens, entered the fray in favour of
:10:27. > :10:28.Remain, while David Owen said the NHS would be better if Britain left.
:10:29. > :10:31.Let us listen to both of them. When Mark Carney says that the risk
:10:32. > :10:34.of a slowdown in economic growth, possibly a recession,
:10:35. > :10:36.if we end up exiting the EU, if Mark Carney is right,
:10:37. > :10:39.then that is a severe concern for the National Health Service,
:10:40. > :10:41.because it would be very dangerous if, at precisely the moment the NHS
:10:42. > :10:45.is going to need extra funding, actually, the economy goes
:10:46. > :10:47.into a tailspin, and that funding If there is any danger to the NHS,
:10:48. > :10:58.it is in staying in, with all the elements of the NHS
:10:59. > :11:01.which are now involved with the EU. For most of the first 20
:11:02. > :11:03.years of our membership, the Common Market, we had no
:11:04. > :11:08.involvement with the NHS at all. Now, the NHS procurement policy,
:11:09. > :11:10.the NHS competition policy is all impacting because we started
:11:11. > :11:20.to marketise the NHS It continued under the coalition
:11:21. > :11:26.with the Liberal Democrats and this And it has continued under this
:11:27. > :11:42.Conservative Government. Liam Fox, Simon Davies rejects the
:11:43. > :11:45.idea suggested by your side that extent would free up money that
:11:46. > :11:50.currently goes to Brussels. At best he said it would fund the NHS the 19
:11:51. > :11:53.days a year. Any extra funding would be helpful
:11:54. > :11:57.and Simon Stephens has been overseeing the biggest deficit in
:11:58. > :12:00.the NHS. Rather than involving himself in...
:12:01. > :12:10.The figures imply something different, you say. It wouldn't
:12:11. > :12:13.necessarily all go on the NHS. It is up to Government to decide how
:12:14. > :12:19.we spend that money, money is available. At the moment we are
:12:20. > :12:23.sending that to Brussels, ?10 billion a year we send net to
:12:24. > :12:26.Brussels. You don't think we could spend that money better ourselves on
:12:27. > :12:30.our own parities rather than handing it over to the bureaucrats in
:12:31. > :12:32.Brussels? What the Vote Leave campaign is
:12:33. > :12:37.doing is offering governments in the future far greater freedom.
:12:38. > :12:42.Simon Stephens may not think ?10 billion a year or a share of that
:12:43. > :12:46.would help. He is running a ?2.5 billion deficit in the NHS this
:12:47. > :12:50.year. If you would think that money would be better spent removing that
:12:51. > :12:55.deficit... You might think he would have a good
:12:56. > :12:58.idea of what is going on in the NHS. With the biggest deficit in the NHS
:12:59. > :13:02.has one he might be better spending his time on that and getting
:13:03. > :13:05.involved in the referendum campaign. It is a lot of money. Even if you
:13:06. > :13:09.take your version of the figures that would not be going to Brussels,
:13:10. > :13:13.it would be a lot the Government could decide and it would be up to
:13:14. > :13:24.then to decide to spend on different priorities and the NHS could be one.
:13:25. > :13:26.Simon Stephens, for Labour and the Conservatives, he has rubbished that
:13:27. > :13:31.figure. He said it amounts to about 19 days spending. Anyone looking at
:13:32. > :13:34.the NHS objectively can see that mental health, particularly, is in
:13:35. > :13:41.collapse. Can see there are real problems in primary care in our
:13:42. > :13:44.country. There are still lots of surgeries and GPs struggling.
:13:45. > :13:49.Against that context, he said quite rightly, if there is a recession,
:13:50. > :13:55.the NHS gets a serious cold, we don't benefit at all from leaving.
:13:56. > :13:58.That is completely reasonable. He is impartial, careful about his
:13:59. > :14:04.comments. A man who has worked for successive governments and knows.
:14:05. > :14:08.You are part of a party and Government which said consistently
:14:09. > :14:13.the NHS relies on a strong economy. Are you saying that is wrong?
:14:14. > :14:20.We have a strong economy and continue. I think we will whether we
:14:21. > :14:24.are in the EU or not. The point is we are sending a net ?10 billion a
:14:25. > :14:30.year to Brussels. That figure has been rubbished. That
:14:31. > :14:35.is the Treasury figure. That money would be better spent on
:14:36. > :14:38.our priorities in Britain and the priorities of the EU bureaucrats.
:14:39. > :14:47.Those cannot be guaranteed priorities.
:14:48. > :14:57.You don't understand my point. That is net.
:14:58. > :15:02.Would you be able to guaranteed to those areas with subsidies they
:15:03. > :15:05.would get the same money if we left the EU?
:15:06. > :15:10.But, what about the terrorists that would be imposed on our
:15:11. > :15:13.pharmaceuticals and companies as a consequence of leaving?
:15:14. > :15:17.That would bloat the NHS budget. I don't believe that, there is no
:15:18. > :15:23.logic. Before we go on talking about this,
:15:24. > :15:39.At the end of the show, Liam and David will give us
:15:40. > :15:44.David Cameron and George Osborne have been giving a joint press
:15:45. > :15:48.conference this morning as a DIY store in Eastleigh.
:15:49. > :15:51.So, what are the numbers from the Treasury analysis today?
:15:52. > :15:55.An economist looked at two scenarios.
:15:56. > :15:57.One where Britain experiences a shock, the second,
:15:58. > :16:02.And under both scenarios, here are the results.
:16:03. > :16:04.This is what happens if Britain leaves.
:16:05. > :16:07.The economy shrinks, the value of the pound falls,
:16:08. > :16:13.inflation rises, unemployment rises, real wages are hit, so too are house
:16:14. > :16:16.prices, and, as a result, Government borrowing goes up.
:16:17. > :16:20.The central conclusions of today's Treasury analysis are clear.
:16:21. > :16:27.A vote to leave will push our economy into a recession.
:16:28. > :16:29.Let's speak now to Gerard Lyons, he's one of the economists
:16:30. > :16:44.Do you accept that there will be a short-term shock if we leave the EU,
:16:45. > :16:46.as the Treasury says? I do believe there will be a shock. I
:16:47. > :16:49.as the Treasury says? I do believe same about two years ago. I
:16:50. > :16:52.as the Treasury says? I do believe detailed analysis. But the reality
:16:53. > :16:56.is that even though there might be a temporary shock, the outcome for the
:16:57. > :17:01.UK economy with Brexit is positive. But I find surprising about today's
:17:02. > :17:06.Treasury analysis is how pessimistic it is. They have assumed a far
:17:07. > :17:10.deeper and longer hit, and they have portrayed the figures in a bizarre
:17:11. > :17:14.way. They have said the hit to the economy is down 3.6% over two years.
:17:15. > :17:16.They have not pointed out whether that means the economy is bigger or
:17:17. > :17:21.smaller, because as we that means the economy is bigger or
:17:22. > :17:24.Budget a few months ago, the independent OBR said the economy
:17:25. > :17:29.would be 4.4% bigger after two years. So it is difficult to
:17:30. > :17:31.would be 4.4% bigger after two things in perspective. The Treasury
:17:32. > :17:36.has outlined three areas where they think the economy would be hit. One
:17:37. > :17:39.of the three, I agree with. There would be an uncertainty impact.
:17:40. > :17:43.Secondly, they said there would be a financial impact. But there you can
:17:44. > :17:50.turn the Treasury's argument on its head. They said the pound could be
:17:51. > :17:54.down up to 15%. When the Chancellor was talking about the march of the
:17:55. > :17:57.makers, he said the fall in the pound would help exporters, and a
:17:58. > :18:00.fall in the pound would basically bring it down to a level where a
:18:01. > :18:04.couple of years ago, the Chancellor said that was good for the economy.
:18:05. > :18:07.The third point of the Treasury is their assumptions about the
:18:08. > :18:12.so-called transition effect. They suggest that leaving the EU and
:18:13. > :18:16.embracing Brexit means we would both keep the regulations and keep up
:18:17. > :18:21.high tariff barriers. You can question that significantly. I agree
:18:22. > :18:27.with the fact that there might be a temporary short-term impact, but the
:18:28. > :18:31.Treasury's analysis is far too pessimistic. But you do agree that
:18:32. > :18:34.there would be a short-term shock. The question is, if you cannot
:18:35. > :18:37.quantify it and you don't know how long that shock will last, you can
:18:38. > :18:43.see how people might vote to stay in. You can quantify it and you can
:18:44. > :18:47.make assumptions. I did a detailed analysis a couple of years ago which
:18:48. > :18:51.also had independent forecasters look at it, and we found with a
:18:52. > :18:56.Brexit scenario, cutting tariff barriers and becoming global, I was
:18:57. > :19:03.looking at the London economy. Brexit added 900 jobs to London
:19:04. > :19:13.economy over two business cycles and an additional 200,000 jobs --
:19:14. > :19:18.900,000 jobs, compared to 200,000 jobs if we stayed in the EU. What is
:19:19. > :19:22.the evidence that you know better? I am saying that in every economic
:19:23. > :19:27.debate, there are two sides, and of the three points the Treasury has
:19:28. > :19:29.assumed, I agree with one of their assumptions about the uncertainty
:19:30. > :19:34.effect. But the financial effect would be positive. A weaker pound in
:19:35. > :19:41.a low inflation environment would allow interest rates to remain low.
:19:42. > :19:44.That is positive. I disagree with the assumptions the Treasury made
:19:45. > :19:50.about the likely policy scenario outside in terms of tariffs and
:19:51. > :19:54.regulations. Ahead of Black Wednesday back in 1992, I took a
:19:55. > :19:59.very different view and people criticised my view. I said the pound
:20:00. > :20:02.would leave the ERM and it would be good news for the economy. At that
:20:03. > :20:09.time, the Treasury said if the pound left the ERM, inflation would rise
:20:10. > :20:13.and the economy would shrink. Of course, the opposite happened. I am
:20:14. > :20:16.not afraid to have a different view. But I can understand where the
:20:17. > :20:20.Treasury is coming from in that there would be a shock. But I would
:20:21. > :20:24.argue that they are far too pessimistic and they have made some
:20:25. > :20:33.unrealistic assumptions. We are now joined by the Treasury minister,
:20:34. > :20:35.Harriet Baldwin. So, unrealistic and pessimistic assumptions from Gerard
:20:36. > :20:42.Lyons in terms of the Treasury analysis? Actually, Gerard Lyons is
:20:43. > :20:45.one of the eight economists that the Brexit campaign has found in the
:20:46. > :20:49.entire world to support the case that we would be better off if we
:20:50. > :20:56.left. He is saying he agreed that there would be uncertainty. And
:20:57. > :21:00.there is a great deal of economic analysis that shows that when there
:21:01. > :21:04.is uncertainty in the world, businesses put investment decisions
:21:05. > :21:10.on hold. They freeze their decisions to hire additional people, and it
:21:11. > :21:14.leads to an economic shock. We have spelt out today not just the
:21:15. > :21:18.uncertainty effect, but also the transition effect, the one where we
:21:19. > :21:21.are moving to a worst trade deal. We know that whatever we move to will
:21:22. > :21:28.be worse than what we currently have. That means the transition to
:21:29. > :21:32.being permanently poorer. People and businesses would have to adjust.
:21:33. > :21:46.Thirdly, there would be a financial shock. We have agreed on a cautious
:21:47. > :21:51.set of assumptions. What is the evidence that GDP could grow by 3.6%
:21:52. > :21:57.less than currently predicted, which goes up to 6% less if, as you claim,
:21:58. > :22:00.there would not be a deal for access to the single market for the UK if
:22:01. > :22:06.it left the EU, that house price growth would be hit by 10%, going up
:22:07. > :22:11.to 18% in the worst scenario? These figures sound like they have been
:22:12. > :22:16.plucked out of thin air. These are cautious assumptions. We have taken
:22:17. > :22:26.the core scenario, the OBR forecast if we remain, because the government
:22:27. > :22:28.wants us to remain. It is an important, permanent decision that
:22:29. > :22:34.the country is making and we think strongly that the country will be
:22:35. > :22:40.better off if we remain. But where is the evidence for these figures?
:22:41. > :22:44.Your viewers will be able to see the common-sense case that where there
:22:45. > :22:48.is uncertainty, we know the process of leaving is a two-year negotiation
:22:49. > :22:52.process. Businesses and consumers would not know what they would end
:22:53. > :23:00.up with, but we do know that all of the different trade arrangements,
:23:01. > :23:08.all of the different deals that have been cited, like Norway and Canada,
:23:09. > :23:12.are worse than what we have. But Britain is different and we are in a
:23:13. > :23:17.different situation to those countries. Are you saying people
:23:18. > :23:20.should rely on the Treasury for getting its analysis right with its
:23:21. > :23:26.track record? There are lots of other sources of analysis on this,
:23:27. > :23:30.whether it is the IMF, the OECD, or a range of different academics from
:23:31. > :23:35.different universities or whether it is our own Bank of England. There
:23:36. > :23:38.has been a huge number of different estimates and they have all agreed
:23:39. > :23:43.that the range of possible shocks to the economy would be between bad to
:23:44. > :23:50.very bad. You have just heard Brexit's an economist saying there
:23:51. > :23:55.would be a short-term shock. We say 500,000 jobs fewer would exist in
:23:56. > :24:00.the economy during a two-year period and interest rates would go up for
:24:01. > :24:04.people who want to borrow money. That is wholeheartedly bad for the
:24:05. > :24:08.British economy. You heard Gerard Lyons saying he agreed that there
:24:09. > :24:12.would be some shock to the economy and some uncertainty, but that that
:24:13. > :24:16.would correct. Bearing in mind that this is a vote that is supposed to
:24:17. > :24:21.settle the matter for regeneration, are you asking people to base their
:24:22. > :24:26.vote on the future of the UK's relationship with the EU on what
:24:27. > :24:31.could happen over a two-year period rather than what might happen in a
:24:32. > :24:34.30 year period? The UK Government thinks we will be better off not
:24:35. > :24:39.only in the short term, but also in the long term. That is because the
:24:40. > :24:55.single market is the gold standard of trade agreements.
:24:56. > :25:00.The Leave campaigners have said they don't want to be in the single
:25:01. > :25:04.market. They have not been clear about what kind of trade arrangement
:25:05. > :25:08.they would see. All we can say is that all other trade arrangement are
:25:09. > :25:13.worse than the current arrangement. The single market gives businesses
:25:14. > :25:17.in this country access to 500 million consumers. Let's look at one
:25:18. > :25:21.of the predictions. Carolyn Fairbairn of the CBI says the claim
:25:22. > :25:26.that families would be better off if we stay in the EU are not accurate.
:25:27. > :25:28.She says that is not a correct figure that she would use. How
:25:29. > :25:32.confident can people be figure that she would use. How
:25:33. > :25:38.other figures? I think figure that she would use. How
:25:39. > :25:45.economic expertise people listen to, the UK would be economically worse
:25:46. > :25:48.off. Businesses and individuals would be worse off. Is accuracy
:25:49. > :25:56.important in would be worse off. Is accuracy
:25:57. > :25:58.are, it is hard for us in the Treasury to be able to compare what
:25:59. > :26:01.is being Treasury to be able to compare what
:26:02. > :26:05.They can't agree amongst themselves what they would like to have. But we
:26:06. > :26:11.do know the single market is what they would like to have. But we
:26:12. > :26:13.over the last decade, we have had ?1 billion
:26:14. > :26:18.over the last decade, we have had ?1 country in foreign direct investment
:26:19. > :26:24.that creates jobs. And it is thanks to access to the single market. Let
:26:25. > :26:28.me bring in Liam Fox. There is an admission now I quite a few of those
:26:29. > :26:32.leavers on your side that there would be a short-term shock. Why
:26:33. > :26:37.should this country expose itself to a short-term economic shock, which
:26:38. > :26:43.we don't know how long it would last or how deep it would be, just to
:26:44. > :26:45.we don't know how long it would last come out of the EU? There will
:26:46. > :26:48.obviously be a period of uncertainty, during which time the
:26:49. > :26:57.government will have to negotiate the best terms for the UK. The
:26:58. > :26:58.Treasury have not been consistent. In 1992, they said a collapsing
:26:59. > :27:02.market confidence would bring a In 1992, they said a collapsing
:27:03. > :27:06.damaging rise in interest rates. If we cut loose from the ERM, the pound
:27:07. > :27:15.will dive. What did happen after we left the ERM? Interest rates came
:27:16. > :27:18.way down, and inflation was stable. But interest rates shot up in the
:27:19. > :27:25.immediate aftermath. Before we left the ERM, we had 18% interest rates.
:27:26. > :27:32.It was the beginning of growth in our economy. But there was a shock.
:27:33. > :27:38.There was a short-term period of uncertainty, but if we vote to leave
:27:39. > :27:43.on the 23rd of June, we are likely not to actually leave until 2019.
:27:44. > :27:47.The Treasury assumption is that the government is unable to get any
:27:48. > :27:51.trade deals and there are no other factors that attract business to
:27:52. > :27:59.Britain other than being in the EU, which is wrong. I am disappointed to
:28:00. > :28:06.see my colleagues spouting a misused Treasury model. We normally get a
:28:07. > :28:10.central prediction. We get a downside prediction and an upside.
:28:11. > :28:14.All we are getting here is the downside. There is no attempt to
:28:15. > :28:19.look at whether there might be benefits. Let me put that to
:28:20. > :28:25.Harriet. You would usually have a variety of scenarios, best case,
:28:26. > :28:31.worst case. In this case, it is bad or worse. Yes. Because the central
:28:32. > :28:36.assumption is that the government wants us to remain for the good of
:28:37. > :28:41.the economy. Then we compare all the other trade arrangements to that,
:28:42. > :28:46.and we know that they go from worse to very much worse. So we have
:28:47. > :28:51.chosen a cautious analysis of how bad things could be. There is a
:28:52. > :28:58.severe shock scenario which is considerably worse than the one you
:28:59. > :29:05.are highlighting. This is a cautious analysis about the loss of jobs and
:29:06. > :29:11.the uncertainty that could occur if we were rash enough to do a DIY
:29:12. > :29:14.recession. Liam Fox, on the economic arguments, do you agree that you
:29:15. > :29:23.don't have many economists or economic institutions batting for
:29:24. > :29:26.you when it comes to having statistics that would support your
:29:27. > :29:32.claims of being better off outside the EU? When people are against
:29:33. > :29:37.840,000 jobs lost in two years according to the Chancellor, youth
:29:38. > :29:42.unemployed up by 10%... These are made up numbers. Well, can you say
:29:43. > :29:48.that when the Treasury has put together these numbers? Well, they
:29:49. > :29:56.are made up on assumptions. They are not facts. And your facts are? I
:29:57. > :30:01.think this referendum is about getting control of our laws and
:30:02. > :30:05.borders. The assumption that the only way to trade for Britain's
:30:06. > :30:11.prosperity is inside the European Union, how a single biggest trading
:30:12. > :30:16.partner is the US. We operate under WTO rules with the US. Why is that a
:30:17. > :30:21.hindrance to the UK economy? Are there no economic risks to staying
:30:22. > :30:24.in the EU, Harriet? Bearing in mind that we have had a long recession,
:30:25. > :30:29.the treatment of Greece has been seen as very damaging by many within
:30:30. > :30:33.the EU. Are you saying it is plain sailing if we stay within the EU? I
:30:34. > :30:37.think what we have within the EU is the best of both worlds. We don't
:30:38. > :30:42.have the euro, which is clearly causing a lot of difficulties, you
:30:43. > :30:46.mentioned Greece. It has been difficult for many countries in the
:30:47. > :30:52.southern Mediterranean. So we don't have that, and we do have access to
:30:53. > :30:56.the single market, which is 500 million customers, tariff free, for
:30:57. > :31:01.our UK economy. So we have the best of both worlds in terms of the
:31:02. > :31:08.economic arrangements. We will not be drawn into any Eurozone bailouts.
:31:09. > :31:12.It is a very good outcome, and none of the alternatives, particularly
:31:13. > :31:20.the WTO arrangements, would create anything other than a huge economic
:31:21. > :31:28.crisis, with no agreement from the leavers as to what they want.
:31:29. > :31:35.Is it edifying, and correct for the Treasury that it is coming out so
:31:36. > :31:40.firmly on one side of the debate? I am so sorry, I am going to ask David
:31:41. > :31:44.Lammy. It would be extraordinary if the
:31:45. > :31:49.Treasury of the country did not do its best to come to a measured view.
:31:50. > :31:53.Liam concedes that there would be uncertainty. The question for the
:31:54. > :31:57.British public, at a time when there are more northern young people
:31:58. > :32:04.coming to London because there aren't jobs in the north, when
:32:05. > :32:09.growth is 0.4%, where public borrowing was ?91 billion last year.
:32:10. > :32:13.The economy is fragile. Of course, if you exited, there would be a
:32:14. > :32:17.shock and there are consequences. They have laid back out. Liam has
:32:18. > :32:20.said there is a period of uncertainty.
:32:21. > :32:24.If you are unemployed comic young, in the north of Britain,
:32:25. > :32:29.manufacturing sluggish, it is not fine, it is deeply worrying. There
:32:30. > :32:32.is a risk attached. It would be the have-nots hit
:32:33. > :32:38.hardest. I do not believe that.
:32:39. > :32:43.The collapse in the European economy as a result of the euro is causing
:32:44. > :32:47.ever increasing numbers of young Europeans particularly from the
:32:48. > :32:54.south to migrate to the UK. And our growth? Growth has been
:32:55. > :32:57.great. Clearly, our growth is strong, the eurozone is very weak.
:32:58. > :33:02.As long as there is free movement there will be increasing numbers
:33:03. > :33:07.coming to the UK. It is the same issue, the collapse of the euro zone
:33:08. > :33:13.economy. The very low levels of growth, massive and implement, 50%
:33:14. > :33:18.of young Spaniards unemployed. Most of them came, the biggest numbers,
:33:19. > :33:23.to the UK. We are not immune. Our budgetary
:33:24. > :33:25.contribution is dependent on how our economy is growing in relation to
:33:26. > :33:33.the rest of the EU. The more of British taxpayers's
:33:34. > :33:39.money will go to Brussels. On the issue of Turkey, are you
:33:40. > :33:45.clear about written using its veto if the issue of Turkey, Turkish
:33:46. > :33:50.accession, came up. Certainly it would if it came up
:33:51. > :33:54.accession, came up. today. There are 27 other countries
:33:55. > :33:59.who think along those lines. I grew up in Cyprus and ancestors Cyprus
:34:00. > :34:05.will veto Turkish membership. I don't think that is an issue likely
:34:06. > :34:10.to arise in any of our lifetimes. You think it is as far away as that.
:34:11. > :34:14.British foreign policy is clear it is something that should be and
:34:15. > :34:17.would be considered? British foreign policy for a number
:34:18. > :34:23.of decades has been to welcome countries that wanted to come,
:34:24. > :34:29.liberal, open democracies with free press, mature economies, into better
:34:30. > :34:35.trading arrangements. I think that has been something that has enhanced
:34:36. > :34:39.economic progress across the continent and social progress. But
:34:40. > :34:43.it is clear to everyone not only do we have a veto in
:34:44. > :34:43.it is clear to everyone not only do membership, but lots of other
:34:44. > :34:47.countries do. membership, but lots of other
:34:48. > :34:50.They are nowhere near ready. Should David Cameron stop
:34:51. > :34:52.They are nowhere near ready. Should about how he would welcome Turkish
:34:53. > :34:57.accession? It is clear this has been brought
:34:58. > :34:59.into the campaign discussions as the reddest of red herrings.
:35:00. > :35:02.into the campaign discussions as the Lammy was saying is correct, the
:35:03. > :35:07.decision on the 23rd of June is Lammy was saying is correct, the
:35:08. > :35:12.in the UK. We have published an analysis showing there would be
:35:13. > :35:17.500,000 job losses, many across the regions. That
:35:18. > :35:21.500,000 job losses, many across the will vote to Remain.
:35:22. > :35:23.Speaking on the half of the Government, as a Government
:35:24. > :35:27.minister, she Government, as a Government
:35:28. > :35:30.Turkish accession today. Government, as a Government
:35:31. > :35:31.It is a hypothetical question, as you know. They
:35:32. > :35:38.It is a hypothetical question, as secured one out of
:35:39. > :35:41.It is a hypothetical question, as you know, it is not an issue even on
:35:42. > :35:47.the table. Thank you very much.
:35:48. > :35:50.As you can probably tell, it's going to be a big week
:35:51. > :35:56.of the highlights, and a few other stories that might
:35:57. > :35:58.This campaign's already got more buses than Piccadilly Circus.
:35:59. > :36:00.But, today, two more are revving their engines.
:36:01. > :36:02.Nigel Farage hops aboard the Ukip referendum bus.
:36:03. > :36:04.And comedian Eddie Izzard takes to the road in support
:36:05. > :36:07.MPs will continue to debate last week's Queen's Speech.
:36:08. > :36:10.And, on Tuesday, they'll be talking about the controversial subjects
:36:11. > :36:13.On Wednesday, at Stormont, new ministers are expected to be
:36:14. > :36:15.appointed to the Northern Ireland Assembly, following the elections
:36:16. > :36:21.And Business Secretary Sajid Javid is expected to be in Mumbai,
:36:22. > :36:23.ahead of a board meeting where we may find out more
:36:24. > :36:25.about the potential buyers for Tata Steel and its
:36:26. > :36:31.On Thursday, the BBC's first referendum debate gets underway,
:36:32. > :36:33.with Victoria Derbyshire hosting an event for younger
:36:34. > :36:39.And, on Friday, restrictions come into force preventing the Government
:36:40. > :36:43.It's known as purdah, and means big announcements,
:36:44. > :36:44.like today's warning from the Treasury,
:36:45. > :36:53.We're joined now by Lucy Fisher from The Times, and Jason Groves
:36:54. > :36:56.We think they may be the last political journalists in Westminster
:36:57. > :37:02.not to be sent away on a battle bus of some description!
:37:03. > :37:12.They had a lucky escape. What impact will purge have? It will
:37:13. > :37:17.be a very interesting time. The Government have planned for this. We
:37:18. > :37:21.have seen the main cost benefit analyses come out like the Treasury
:37:22. > :37:26.document, a week before this starts. The effects will last. Now these
:37:27. > :37:32.figures are out, we will be talking about them into that period.
:37:33. > :37:36.Will we notice any real difference? In the campaign, we will. Far fewer
:37:37. > :37:41.of these documents. The reason we have seen this Oleg is because the
:37:42. > :37:46.postal ballots go out on Friday. Both sides are clear these documents
:37:47. > :37:48.do have a short-term impact on the poles and are hoping to make the
:37:49. > :37:53.most it. Let us talk about Tory infighting,
:37:54. > :37:57.Liam Fox and Harrods Baldwin representing different sides of the
:37:58. > :38:02.argument. Lucy, is it getting difficult to see
:38:03. > :38:08.that reconciliation in a cabinet of all the talents being put together
:38:09. > :38:14.after 23rd of June. If we presume that Remain wins,
:38:15. > :38:19.because if Brexit wins I don't think Cameron and Osborne won't survive.
:38:20. > :38:21.It will be difficult to see how the Conservative Party comes back
:38:22. > :38:26.together. There are two issues. The first is
:38:27. > :38:31.the cabinet. The many ministers on the pro-Brexit site, it is hard for
:38:32. > :38:36.us to see a way back. Penny Morduant suggested the Prime Minister needs
:38:37. > :38:41.to build trust with voters after the Panama papers and concerns about his
:38:42. > :38:45.finances. It is difficult to see how she will survive.
:38:46. > :38:50.The Government will need a clear at reshuffle. Some who have been loyal
:38:51. > :38:53.on the Brexit side like Chris Grayling who hasn't really
:38:54. > :38:58.criticised Government policy, he is likely to remain.
:38:59. > :39:06.On the second issue, policy issues will need to reunite people. Like
:39:07. > :39:12.Trident. Or keep to uncontroversial policies
:39:13. > :39:17.like that is in the Queen's Speech. David Cameron has said it would be
:39:18. > :39:21.an opportunity post June the 23rd, to bring together both sides. You
:39:22. > :39:27.would need to give some big jobs if Remain were to win, to those who had
:39:28. > :39:30.campaigned to leave? If anything, Lucy is optimistic
:39:31. > :39:35.about what will happen after June 23.
:39:36. > :39:40.It will be extraordinarily difficult to bring the party back together. It
:39:41. > :39:44.is quite possible the Prime Minister will face a vote of no confidence
:39:45. > :39:49.from his own MPs. I think he would win that. But he will have to face
:39:50. > :39:54.the fact 80 of them want him gone. With a majority of 12, it is
:39:55. > :39:58.difficult to do anything even vaguely controversial.
:39:59. > :40:01.He will try to patch things up by giving people like Boris Johnson a
:40:02. > :40:06.good job. I think his prospects for governing
:40:07. > :40:10.in the longer term are going to be damaged.
:40:11. > :40:13.What about the papers? In terms of finding it difficult to decide which
:40:14. > :40:19.way to go? I think we know which way most
:40:20. > :40:25.papers fall today. A new Reuters Institute study showing 45% of
:40:26. > :40:27.articles in the last two months have been for Brexit, 27 cents for
:40:28. > :40:31.Remain. It is not clear from the methodology
:40:32. > :40:35.how that works. The way the papers are covering it
:40:36. > :40:39.is interesting. The leading world figures,
:40:40. > :40:44.institutions, are on one side, Remain, largely.
:40:45. > :40:48.For the Daily Mail, the Times newspaper, we have two slightly
:40:49. > :40:53.adjust to that bias towards the biggest Jewish and is being behind
:40:54. > :41:01.Remain, to give some providence to the Brexit debate. We need to do our
:41:02. > :41:03.fact checks. Thank you to both of you.
:41:04. > :41:06.Now, yesterday, the Prime Minister said the Conservative Party had "not
:41:07. > :41:08.done anything wrong" over its expenses at last
:41:09. > :41:12.may have been "mis-declared" or "left out".
:41:13. > :41:14.A number of police forces are investigating whether tens
:41:15. > :41:17.of thousands of pounds spent campaigning in 29 marginal seats
:41:18. > :41:19.should have been declared locally rather than centrally.
:41:20. > :41:30.I am very confident that the Conservative Party
:41:31. > :41:34.is gripping this with the chairman, Andrew Feldman.
:41:35. > :41:37.Lots of political parties have these bus tours.
:41:38. > :41:39.Buses that go around different constituencies, and that
:41:40. > :41:44.But this is all now in conversation with the electoral commission
:41:45. > :41:46.and these other investigations, so we should let that
:41:47. > :41:50.But I'm confident the idea of a bus that is a national bus that
:41:51. > :41:52.visits constituences, the Labour Party has done that,
:41:53. > :41:58.Well, yesterday, the SNP MP Pete Wishart wrote
:41:59. > :42:01.to the Metropolitan Police, to call for a wider investigation
:42:02. > :42:02.into whether the Conservatives attempted to subvert
:42:03. > :42:04.the Representation Of The People Act.
:42:05. > :42:12.And Pete Wishart joins us now from Dundee.
:42:13. > :42:20.There are already ten separate investigations into the Conservative
:42:21. > :42:24.Party's election expenses, what is the point of another one?
:42:25. > :42:28.Those ten investigations are right and proper and will take their due
:42:29. > :42:32.course. What I have asked for is the
:42:33. > :42:36.Conservative Party as a national outfit to be investigated by the
:42:37. > :42:45.Metropolitan Police. We know this was organised, these battle buses,
:42:46. > :42:54.accommodation expenses, what we have to see if if there was a systematic
:42:55. > :42:58.attempt to try to pass off candidate is the future as national
:42:59. > :43:02.expenditure. The Prime Minister has conceded this. He tried to say this
:43:03. > :43:08.was a minor, trifling issue of something left out. We are talking
:43:09. > :43:15.about the integrity of an electoral system to make sure elections are
:43:16. > :43:18.fair. It looks like because of the party have broken those laws.
:43:19. > :43:23.There is some admission of administrative error which is not
:43:24. > :43:29.the same as what you are suggesting, a deliberate intent. Do you not have
:43:30. > :43:35.confidence in the police investigations because they will be
:43:36. > :43:40.looking at exactly that? The current police investigations
:43:41. > :43:43.will be looking at local issues, CAD itched expenditure in particular
:43:44. > :43:48.constituencies. I want something different, for the Conservative
:43:49. > :43:53.Party to be looked at. It is clear from the Prime Minister yesterday
:43:54. > :43:59.that the law was not adhered to. This is not an optional extra, this
:44:00. > :44:03.is a fundamental exercise in ensuring the integrity of our
:44:04. > :44:08.elections. Something has definitely gone on. There is a concession from
:44:09. > :44:10.the Conservative Party. Let us leave the police to look at this
:44:11. > :44:14.the Conservative Party. Let us leave Do you know what form the
:44:15. > :44:21.investigation will take? I wrote to them yesterday.
:44:22. > :44:27.investigation will take? Not yet. We are looking at several
:44:28. > :44:31.cases. I think this is on a par with the cash for honours which blighted
:44:32. > :44:35.the Tony Blair Government. An attempt to dismiss casually the way
:44:36. > :44:38.the law should be applied in these attempt to dismiss casually the way
:44:39. > :44:41.things. This has been bubbling away for such a long time. I
:44:42. > :44:45.things. This has been bubbling away the statements from the Government
:44:46. > :44:53.and we have heard nothing. Let us put that. Similar to a cash
:44:54. > :44:56.for honours scandal. We are talking about a large number of marginal
:44:57. > :45:00.seats. We don't know about a large number of marginal
:45:01. > :45:03.might or might not have changed that result. The
:45:04. > :45:08.might or might not have changed that reason. If it is found the party has
:45:09. > :45:12.overspent or declared local spending at a national level in order to push
:45:13. > :45:13.their campaign locally, what would you say?
:45:14. > :45:17.The party was always clear you say?
:45:18. > :45:20.basic issue it believed it was operating from the rules and having
:45:21. > :45:25.a national bus operating from the rules and having
:45:26. > :45:29.promoting candidates in those constituencies, promoting the
:45:30. > :45:34.Government's Central case. The electoral commission is looking at.
:45:35. > :45:40.There are police force is looking into individual candidates and their
:45:41. > :45:42.returns come in each individual is responsible for that. The
:45:43. > :45:47.Metropolitan Police have better things to do dealing with crime than
:45:48. > :45:54.an SNP political stunt given these investigations are underway.
:45:55. > :46:00.You don't think it is important for the Metropolitan Police to pursue?
:46:01. > :46:06.It is important that these investigations take their course.
:46:07. > :46:10.Except that they are focusing on whether expenses came under the
:46:11. > :46:15.national battle bus. There is also a question mark over accommodation
:46:16. > :46:19.costs that could have been put under the national costings total. That
:46:20. > :46:23.would also be against the rules. That is what the Metropolitan Police
:46:24. > :46:26.would look at, whether it was centrally controlled in terms of
:46:27. > :46:30.directing expenses locally to the national budget. The Conservative
:46:31. > :46:36.Party admitted that those figures should have been declared. They have
:46:37. > :46:39.gone to the electoral commission and the electoral commission will make a
:46:40. > :46:43.judgment on that and whether rules were infringed. In fact, the actual
:46:44. > :46:47.number would not have made difference to the overall accounts.
:46:48. > :46:57.But why, when these investigations are going on, involve the
:46:58. > :47:00.Metropolitan Police? It is a waste of money and a political stunt. I
:47:01. > :47:08.will come back to you in a moment, Pete Wishart. But first, isn't it
:47:09. > :47:13.always the case that parties blur the distinction between what is
:47:14. > :47:21.local and what is centralised spending in elections? No. Actually,
:47:22. > :47:25.we have really hard rules about election expenses. And it is because
:47:26. > :47:31.we do not want political parties buying elections, spending billions
:47:32. > :47:35.like we see in the United States. If you look at the last general
:47:36. > :47:39.election result, the real conversation was the Lib Dem
:47:40. > :47:44.collapse. If you look at these marginals, many in the south-west,
:47:45. > :47:48.the accusation is that these elections were stolen. This is a
:47:49. > :47:52.very serious inquiry. It should have much more discussion in the
:47:53. > :47:58.Westminster village. Yes, of course the Met should look at what went on.
:47:59. > :48:04.And what about labour battle buses? Should the police investigate
:48:05. > :48:10.whether Labour party used a battle bus? At the moment, there is no
:48:11. > :48:18.suggestion of labour fraud. There is a suggestion in 29 seats that you
:48:19. > :48:25."mis-declared" your spending. That is a serious act queues Asian and it
:48:26. > :48:35.would go to the Conservatives -- that is a serious accusation. They
:48:36. > :48:42.are allegations. Before we let you go, these accusations fly on all
:48:43. > :48:46.parties. It has been alleged that Nicola Sturgeon's helicopter tour
:48:47. > :48:52.included some local campaigning. Are you confident that the costs were
:48:53. > :48:56.properly declared? Listen, I want David Cameron to come to Scotland...
:48:57. > :49:02.Are you confident it was properly declared? They're always what if
:49:03. > :49:08.questions. This is about the fact that the Conservatives bust loads of
:49:09. > :49:14.conservative actors in and tried to pass that off as local spending. The
:49:15. > :49:18.cavalier attitude of Liam Fox and the Conservative Party on this, I
:49:19. > :49:23.think, does a great disservice to the many people throughout this
:49:24. > :49:27.country who are concerned about this, who are looking at
:49:28. > :49:34.Conservative Brexit election results and think they might have been
:49:35. > :49:35.bought. -- now looking at Conservative election results and
:49:36. > :49:37.think they might have been bought. Now to Austria, where presidential
:49:38. > :49:40.elections are on a knife-edge. The job is mainly a ceremonial one,
:49:41. > :49:43.but the contest is being closely watched because it could see
:49:44. > :49:45.the election of the EU's All the direct votes have been
:49:46. > :49:49.counted in the contest between Norbert Hofer
:49:50. > :49:51.of the far-right Freedom Party and Alexander Van Der Bellen,
:49:52. > :49:53.the former leader It now rests on the hundreds
:49:54. > :49:56.of thousands of postal votes, the result of which will be
:49:57. > :49:58.announced his evening. Let's get the latest
:49:59. > :50:11.from our correspondent What is the latest? We are still
:50:12. > :50:16.waiting for those postal votes to be counted. Austria is waiting to see
:50:17. > :50:23.who the next incumbent will be of the presidential palace behind me.
:50:24. > :50:26.Whatever the result, whether it be president turns out to be the far
:50:27. > :50:31.right candidate Norbert Hofer or Alexander Van Der Bellen of the
:50:32. > :50:38.Green Party, this vote has shown how deeply split Austria is. Those who
:50:39. > :50:41.feel they want to go in a more nationalist and Eurosceptic
:50:42. > :50:44.direction, people who are worried about the influx of migrants because
:50:45. > :50:50.of the migrant crisis, and those who support the green candidate, who say
:50:51. > :50:57.they want to be more open to Europe, they want a more federal system and
:50:58. > :51:02.our sympathies are with the migrants who have come in. On Norbert Hofer,
:51:03. > :51:09.you talked about in nationalist platform. Has that made up his
:51:10. > :51:13.campaign platform? Is that what he has been talking about? Very much
:51:14. > :51:20.so, but it is not just about the migrant crisis. A lot of observers
:51:21. > :51:25.here say it is about the failure of the centre, the and parties that
:51:26. > :51:31.have dominated politics here for many decades. Their messages are not
:51:32. > :51:38.reverberating with the population any more. There has been a lot of
:51:39. > :51:43.concern about what people see as failure to move forward on key
:51:44. > :51:58.reforms here, and there is also a debate about what it means to be
:51:59. > :52:02.part of Europe. Go on. This could be a signal for the rest of Europe,
:52:03. > :52:10.because there are other populist nationalist movements that are
:52:11. > :52:12.watching this result closely. No doubt the BBC will report on that
:52:13. > :52:14.result later. Now, have you heard
:52:15. > :52:16.of an iceberg home? It's not a house where the central
:52:17. > :52:19.heating isn't working, but the trend in certain
:52:20. > :52:21.parts of the country - but particularly in the capital -
:52:22. > :52:24.for extending homes under the ground, with the extra space
:52:25. > :52:26.used for private cinemas, Not everyone's a fan,
:52:27. > :52:29.including the journalist I have lived in London's
:52:30. > :52:47.Notting Hill, famous for its communal gardens,
:52:48. > :52:51.ice cream coloured stucco terraces, and celebrity residents
:52:52. > :52:55.like Richard Curtis and, most recently, my newest neighbour,
:52:56. > :53:03.Hugh Grant, for three decades. Many of the houses are
:53:04. > :53:08.delicate, Jerry-built, But not even media moguls' mansions
:53:09. > :53:11.are big enough for some. The Royal Borough Of Kensington
:53:12. > :53:16.And Chelsea receives hundreds in my book, to transform properties
:53:17. > :53:19.like this into bigger, deeper houses, by excavating
:53:20. > :53:23.deep underground, sometimes increasing the number
:53:24. > :53:27.of floors by two or three storeys. We are living in the age
:53:28. > :53:33.of the double or triple basement, the "iceberg house",
:53:34. > :53:35.and the neighbours from hell. I don't blame residents who want
:53:36. > :53:38.to make the most of their space, and live in airless,
:53:39. > :53:44.subterranean lairs like trolls. But there is a world of difference
:53:45. > :53:47.in a householder making improvements or creating an extra room,
:53:48. > :53:50.than there is in a property owner creating an iceberg house
:53:51. > :53:53.where there is more below These houses are simply quite
:53:54. > :54:02.unsuitable for deep, subterranean excavations,
:54:03. > :54:05.and all the attendant noise, traffic movements, disruption,
:54:06. > :54:10.structural damage, and environmental impacts they cause for up to years
:54:11. > :54:14.at a time. Of course, home owners should
:54:15. > :54:17.have the right to do what they want, And they were framed over 100 years
:54:18. > :54:27.ago, when nobody even thought This means councils
:54:28. > :54:32.are powerless to refuse repeated It is time for a national planning
:54:33. > :54:42.framework to ban almost all deep excavation in built-up areas,
:54:43. > :54:46.otherwise this is just going to be # Our house, in the
:54:47. > :54:55.middle of our street.# And Rachel Johnson joins
:54:56. > :55:08.us here in the studio. Would you agree that this is a
:55:09. > :55:11.fairly niche issue? Not really. They're almost 4500 of these
:55:12. > :55:16.basements planned or being dug They're almost 4500 of these
:55:17. > :55:21.London, which is a lot, especially if one is next door to you. How
:55:22. > :55:26.disruptive is it? Incredibly disruptive. As you saw in the little
:55:27. > :55:29.piece I did, opposite my house there is a basement that is being dug
:55:30. > :55:34.underneath the middle of the street and it has been going on for two
:55:35. > :55:39.years so far. Sadiq Khan, though, has said he is going to row back on
:55:40. > :55:44.this. Various bills have been put through the Lords, but nothing has
:55:45. > :55:47.happened. You talk of setting up a national framework. Is that
:55:48. > :55:51.necessary, or do you think you could deal with it locally with issues
:55:52. > :55:56.where it is really afflicting one part of the country? I would like to
:55:57. > :56:01.see the presumption being against anything that goes below one story.
:56:02. > :56:06.It is not only incredibly disruptive, it is also structurally
:56:07. > :56:10.very dodgy, because it means you are honeycomb in the subsoil. The
:56:11. > :56:16.average depth of Ireland and foundation is something like 12
:56:17. > :56:20.inches, nothing. -- the average depth of a London foundation. Sorry
:56:21. > :56:24.to be so boring, but you don't know what you are doing in terms of
:56:25. > :56:31.sewerage and getting other services disrupted. Do you have any sympathy
:56:32. > :56:34.for Rachel's pursuit of this issue? I think there is a tension here
:56:35. > :56:38.between the right of individuals to do what they like with their own
:56:39. > :56:43.property, against the impact on public utility. And that needs to be
:56:44. > :56:46.resolved. There need to be clear guidelines on that and if we don't
:56:47. > :56:50.have guidelines in our planning law, because it was never considered when
:56:51. > :56:54.those laws were being introduced, they do need to be updated. We need
:56:55. > :56:58.to have clarity so that people know where they are and so that people
:56:59. > :57:04.who might want to invest in building a big basement know where they would
:57:05. > :57:09.stand, as do the neighbours. So if clarity is required, we should have
:57:10. > :57:19.it. But our iceberg home is a big problem in your constituency? It has
:57:20. > :57:25.never, ever come up in Tottenham! But I do agree with Rachel that
:57:26. > :57:30.there is a collective hole. You cannot just have people willy-nilly
:57:31. > :57:34.digging down. This is a problem of the super wealthy. It is a problem
:57:35. > :57:38.sometimes of the overseas buyers in the London market. So it does need
:57:39. > :57:43.regulation, but it is not number one. Is it also a problem of people
:57:44. > :57:49.in London not being able to afford to move, because it is cheaper to
:57:50. > :57:54.stay where you are, and is that a fault of government policy? I don't
:57:55. > :57:58.think people in Kensington who are building two floors down have a big
:57:59. > :58:02.problem with their family incomes. You may be right, but it is an
:58:03. > :58:06.issue. If people are not moving, do you blame things like the changes to
:58:07. > :58:10.stamp duty? They have also made it easier to begin prudence on your
:58:11. > :58:16.house. So there are two reasons not to move, higher stamp duty, and I
:58:17. > :58:19.have relaxed the laws surrounding things like extensions and
:58:20. > :58:21.basements. I want to give credit to Kensington and Chelsea. Then number
:58:22. > :58:27.of applications has halved since they limited development is to only
:58:28. > :58:31.one for underground. There was one guy next to the French ambassador
:58:32. > :58:37.who was doing a 6-storey extension with the carousel for his vintage
:58:38. > :58:39.Ferraris. We can only dream! Thank you for coming in.
:58:40. > :58:42.There's just time before we go to find out the answer to our quiz.
:58:43. > :58:45.The question was who, according to this morning's Times,
:58:46. > :58:57.Tony Blair, Steve Hilton, Raul Castro or Ed Miliband? What do you
:58:58. > :59:02.think? I am going with Ed Miliband. You might be right. Do you think
:59:03. > :59:08.that is a good idea? Ed Miliband, who lost the last election, helping
:59:09. > :59:13.Jeremy Corbyn? Give the guy a job. He is talented, why not? What is
:59:14. > :59:17.your reaction? I think Jeremy Corbyn can't get enough advisers.
:59:18. > :59:22.The one o'clock news is starting over on BBC One now.
:59:23. > :59:25.I'll be here at noon tomorrow with all the big political stories
:59:26. > :59:38.People were afraid of her political convictions -
:59:39. > :59:43.Dear Mama, last night we had nearly four inches of rain.
:59:44. > :59:47.People can be seen going about fetching bread and other things
:59:48. > :59:51.on floating sofas or wooden bedsteads.