0:00:35 > 0:00:38Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics.
0:00:39 > 0:00:47Just two weeks to go until the EU referendum, and this morning brings
0:00:48 > 0:00:49some big endorsements for Leave and Remain.
0:00:50 > 0:00:52The Remain camp is cock-a-hoop that Conservative MP and GP
0:00:53 > 0:00:54Sarah Woolaston has swapped sides and no longer supports leaving,
0:00:55 > 0:00:58We'll be asking her to explain her sudden change of heart.
0:00:59 > 0:01:02But Leave thinks it's had its own earth-shaking moment
0:01:03 > 0:01:05this morning, as the boss of JCB becomes the first major employer
0:01:06 > 0:01:11He says the UK can stand on its own two feet.
0:01:12 > 0:01:15No love lost between Jeremy Corbyn and Tony Blair, as the former prime
0:01:16 > 0:01:18minister hits back at criticism over his part in the Iraq war
0:01:19 > 0:01:20and claims Mr Corbyn isn't interested in
0:01:21 > 0:01:38Cass the mystic moggy has been predicting the football results,
0:01:39 > 0:01:41and today she'll turn her paw to predicting how we'll vote
0:01:42 > 0:01:49A real scientific sample. It could be a watershed moment in this
0:01:50 > 0:01:52referendum. And from one mystic mog who can
0:01:53 > 0:01:56see into the future - well, apparently - to a man
0:01:57 > 0:01:59who makes his living peering back I speak of course of
0:02:00 > 0:02:05the historian, Andrew Roberts. He's a member of the Historians
0:02:06 > 0:02:07for Britain group, which is backing a vote to leave
0:02:08 > 0:02:10in the EU referendum. So first today, let's talk
0:02:11 > 0:02:20about a bit of a coup for the Remain camp overnight,
0:02:21 > 0:02:22that's the announcement by Conservative MP Sarah Woolaston
0:02:23 > 0:02:25that she's switching her support The reason it's significant
0:02:26 > 0:02:29is because she's known as an independent-minded
0:02:30 > 0:02:34backbencher, she's chair of the Health Select Committee
0:02:35 > 0:02:37and she's a GP - and she says her decision to switch sides centres
0:02:38 > 0:02:40on the 'out' campaign's use of a slogan claiming that leaving
0:02:41 > 0:02:43the EU could free up ?350 million She writes in this morning's Times
0:02:44 > 0:02:55'they have knowingly placed a financial lie at the heart
0:02:56 > 0:02:58of their campaign. It's an empty promise that
0:02:59 > 0:03:00would soon backfire'. She says the arrival of her postal
0:03:01 > 0:03:05vote crystallised the decision, and she now believes
0:03:06 > 0:03:19leaving would harm the NHS. Welcome to the programme. You
0:03:20 > 0:03:22previously said you could not back and David Cameron's threadbare deal.
0:03:23 > 0:03:28That is what you described what he brought back from Brussels. What
0:03:29 > 0:03:32changed? A lot of people like me were very disappointed and would
0:03:33 > 0:03:35have liked to have seen the EU go further, particularly at a time when
0:03:36 > 0:03:39there is a risk that Britain might leave. It is not just centring on
0:03:40 > 0:03:44the Vote Leave campaign, it is about all of the arguments. People have
0:03:45 > 0:03:49been asking, is the NHS going to be better or worse off? Is our public
0:03:50 > 0:03:54health going to be better or worse? And looking at all those arguments,
0:03:55 > 0:04:00it is clear to me that there will be a financial penalty on Brexit. There
0:04:01 > 0:04:04will not be a Brexit bonanza. Is the deal still threadbare or does it not
0:04:05 > 0:04:09matter? The deal still matters, but you have to look at this in its
0:04:10 > 0:04:12entirety. It is not just about the deal. And on both sides there is a
0:04:13 > 0:04:20lot of conspiracy theories doing the rounds. We have to deal with about
0:04:21 > 0:04:25one a day. Let me ask you, so that you can tell us, you were not
0:04:26 > 0:04:28planning to do this all along? No, that is clearly nonsense. It has
0:04:29 > 0:04:34been a growing feeling and the other thing that has crystallised it more,
0:04:35 > 0:04:39my father has been an NHS patient of late and he is 81 now. As a
0:04:40 > 0:04:43teenager, for him the idea of conflict in Europe is not an
0:04:44 > 0:04:47abstract possibility. He was asking me all the way to the operating door
0:04:48 > 0:04:51to change my vote because he feels profoundly that this will have
0:04:52 > 0:04:56ripple effects and is destabilising effect. And I think you have to
0:04:57 > 0:05:03listen to those kind of years. I do one of the other defectors? -- those
0:05:04 > 0:05:10kind of use. I think people have to say for themselves. I was not asking
0:05:11 > 0:05:14you to name them yet. But certainly, in private conversations people have
0:05:15 > 0:05:19told me they are having doubts. It is about research, public health,...
0:05:20 > 0:05:25Lots of things. And you have been tweeting about it. Let's look at
0:05:26 > 0:05:31what you have been tweeting. This one was about Greece. You spoke
0:05:32 > 0:05:35about your father in the war. Why do you support an institution, which,
0:05:36 > 0:05:39in your own words, created a lost generation of young people in Greece
0:05:40 > 0:05:44and Italy? Because of course there are problems with the EU. I do not
0:05:45 > 0:05:48go back from what I said about that. But a lost generation is more than
0:05:49 > 0:05:54just a problem. Young people, that is a systematic failure. It is. And
0:05:55 > 0:06:03the EU, but it must not do is interpret this as a full on
0:06:04 > 0:06:07endorsement of -- if Britain votes to stay. I hope that they will look
0:06:08 > 0:06:09carefully at some of the arguments that have been made throughout this
0:06:10 > 0:06:15campaign and think again about the way they operate. Well, we are doing
0:06:16 > 0:06:19our best on that. Here is another one. You criticised the Remain
0:06:20 > 0:06:26campaign for wasting ?9 billion of taxpayers money on what you describe
0:06:27 > 0:06:32as one-sided propaganda. Do you still think that about the ?9
0:06:33 > 0:06:36million? Yes. And I do not think the public have been well served about
0:06:37 > 0:06:42other side. I have been critical for weeks about this. The public deserve
0:06:43 > 0:06:45better. Indeed. In another Tweet you described the Remain campaign as
0:06:46 > 0:06:55ratcheting up the alarmist rhetoric, taking people for fools. Talking us
0:06:56 > 0:07:02down as little Britain. Why have you joined a campaign that takes us for
0:07:03 > 0:07:07fools, talks us down and has been responsible for alarmist rhetoric. I
0:07:08 > 0:07:10have not joined the official In campaign rather than I have joined
0:07:11 > 0:07:15the official Vote Leave campaign. But I have real concerns about the
0:07:16 > 0:07:18quality of information. I came into politics campaigning for better
0:07:19 > 0:07:22information in public life and we have not seen that from either side.
0:07:23 > 0:07:27But you could actually say that it is true of both sides. You have been
0:07:28 > 0:07:39particularly angered by the claim, on the side of the leave bus,, that
0:07:40 > 0:07:43they say we spend ?350 million a week on our membership. And that has
0:07:44 > 0:07:47been widely discredited, including by us. But the site you are
0:07:48 > 0:07:53supporting has its own problem with fake figures. They claimed that by
0:07:54 > 0:08:022030 each household will be ?4300 worse off. That is what you're
0:08:03 > 0:08:06saying. Do you agree with that? No. The point is about how it is
0:08:07 > 0:08:09interpreted. It does not mean that each individual household will lose
0:08:10 > 0:08:13that amount of money. That is the trouble, it is the way that the
0:08:14 > 0:08:17figures are presented that can be misleading. But look at the battle
0:08:18 > 0:08:24bus, you have a picture of it behind you, the NHS logo. It is outrageous.
0:08:25 > 0:08:31I understand that. I am trying to work out how having left out of the
0:08:32 > 0:08:34frying pan, you have jumped into the fire. The Treasury Select Committee,
0:08:35 > 0:08:38on this figure, you know that this matters because you are a chair of a
0:08:39 > 0:08:43Treasury Select Committee. It is cheered by a Tory but it is pretty
0:08:44 > 0:08:47independent minded. It says of the ?4300 claim that households would
0:08:48 > 0:08:51all be that much worse off and that that is not what the main Treasury
0:08:52 > 0:08:55analysis found. The average impact on household income would be
0:08:56 > 0:08:59considerably smaller than that. And then it says that neither government
0:09:00 > 0:09:06departments nor the Remain campaign should risk repeating this
0:09:07 > 0:09:10assertion. To persist with this claim would be to misrepresent the
0:09:11 > 0:09:14Treasury's on works. So you have gone from one side that is
0:09:15 > 0:09:19representing a figure falsely to another side misrepresenting a
0:09:20 > 0:09:21figure. Can I just add that I am not joining the official Remain campaign
0:09:22 > 0:09:30any more than I was on the battle bus. But you have let from one
0:09:31 > 0:09:33figure on to another. You do not have to be endorsing the way the
0:09:34 > 0:09:37campaign has operated. I have been very clear for weeks that the public
0:09:38 > 0:09:42deserve better and both sides have been using data in a way that is not
0:09:43 > 0:09:50helpful. But why is the ?4300 figure any better in its own way than the
0:09:51 > 0:09:54350 million? So why have you switched? Because it is not about
0:09:55 > 0:10:01the campaigns. This is about... You said it was about the figure on the
0:10:02 > 0:10:06bus. My decision has been about weighing up the arguments. It is not
0:10:07 > 0:10:11about the figure the bus. But you said on this programme it was. You
0:10:12 > 0:10:14just said it. But the decision, and I'm very irritated by the figure on
0:10:15 > 0:10:21the bus but of course the decision about who you vote is not about a
0:10:22 > 0:10:25figure on a bus, it is about weighing up the argument. And for
0:10:26 > 0:10:29me, listening to the consensus, it is very clear that there would be a
0:10:30 > 0:10:34profound economic shock. Do I field will be a Brexit bonanza or a
0:10:35 > 0:10:37penalty? I think it will be a penalty. And you spoke about the
0:10:38 > 0:10:44NHS, of particular concern because you are a GP. And of course you
0:10:45 > 0:10:47chair a Select Committee. You sign the amendment to the Queen's Speech
0:10:48 > 0:10:52which regretted that a bill to protect the NHS from the
0:10:53 > 0:10:58transatlantic trade agreement was not included in it. And that is part
0:10:59 > 0:11:03of an EU deal with the United States which we will be part of if we stay
0:11:04 > 0:11:08in. Have you had assurances from the government that they will do
0:11:09 > 0:11:11something to protect the NHS from the transatlantic radial? As the
0:11:12 > 0:11:15chair of the health committee, I have been in correspondence with the
0:11:16 > 0:11:21last Parliament, with the EU around this issue. And they have given us
0:11:22 > 0:11:25written assurances that health would be exempted. But you still signed
0:11:26 > 0:11:32the amendment. What is clear to me is that people do not believe it.
0:11:33 > 0:11:35People wanted to be explicit, they do not trust an agreement with the
0:11:36 > 0:11:40EU. I felt that it was better for the government to just be explicit
0:11:41 > 0:11:43and say, let's include it. I think it will have been excluded anyway
0:11:44 > 0:11:48but people did not believe it so why not just make it exclusive? So you
0:11:49 > 0:11:52have had no assurance that the government will go that way? I hope
0:11:53 > 0:11:55that they will. They have said they will and I think they should honour
0:11:56 > 0:11:59that agreement. They should make it explicit because people do not
0:12:00 > 0:12:04believe it and having spent some time over the last Parliament
0:12:05 > 0:12:07showing them an assurance from the EU, the problem is that when people
0:12:08 > 0:12:11do not believe it, they have been using it to a political tool and it
0:12:12 > 0:12:16is best to make it explicit. Andrew Roberts, very important decision on
0:12:17 > 0:12:22June 23. At the heart of the campaign from Remain and Leave, two
0:12:23 > 0:12:29totemic figures which independent observers believe, both, to be
0:12:30 > 0:12:35deeply dodgy. Is that anyway to run a clearly not. But do not believe
0:12:36 > 0:12:40that buses saying we will spend ?350 million entirely on the NHS. But it
0:12:41 > 0:12:44says we would save it and that is not true either. Absolutely. But it
0:12:45 > 0:12:52is a gross figure. When I ask you how much you are paid, you give me
0:12:53 > 0:12:56the gross figure. But that is what you are asking, gross or net? The
0:12:57 > 0:13:02real amount is ?19.1 billion and when you divide it, it is a bit more
0:13:03 > 0:13:06than ?350 million. But then you take away the stuff that is not being
0:13:07 > 0:13:14taken back. It is not discretionary. But ?5 billion of that ?18 billion
0:13:15 > 0:13:22never goes in the first place. It is the abatement. People call it a
0:13:23 > 0:13:26rebate but it is -- it never goes to Brussels in the first place. We send
0:13:27 > 0:13:33?13 billion and we get ?4.5 billion back. And of course that figure
0:13:34 > 0:13:39should have been... You probably need a bigger bus to explain it.
0:13:40 > 0:13:43With regards to what Sarah was saying, I hope that you can tell
0:13:44 > 0:13:50your father, who was busily very brave in the war, after the war in
0:13:51 > 0:13:54the Royal Navy, but bomb disposal is a really brave job, underwater bomb
0:13:55 > 0:13:59disposal is incredibly brave. But you have to remind him that it has
0:14:00 > 0:14:04not been the EU that has kept us safe since 1945, since 1949 it has
0:14:05 > 0:14:09been Nato. We will still stay in Nato if we come out of Britain. If
0:14:10 > 0:14:13anything the EU has been bad for peace and security because you only
0:14:14 > 0:14:17have to look at what happened with 250 million people dying -- 250,000
0:14:18 > 0:14:22people dying in the Yugoslavian civil war to appreciate that. We
0:14:23 > 0:14:26will let you ponder what Mr Robert has says.
0:14:27 > 0:14:35And if you change your mind, come on! -- come back on. How have things
0:14:36 > 0:14:38been with your father? He's making a good recovery and he is delighted
0:14:39 > 0:14:42that I have changed my mind because he believes it absolutely profoundly
0:14:43 > 0:14:47and many of his generation do. Bassong what Roberts says. We thank
0:14:48 > 0:14:52you for coming on to explain your decision. -- pass on what Mr Roberts
0:14:53 > 0:14:53says. So if that was a significant moment
0:14:54 > 0:14:55for the Remain campaign, but there's been a significant
0:14:56 > 0:14:58moment for leave too this morning after the Chairman
0:14:59 > 0:15:00of the manufacturing firm JCB, Anthony Bamford, wrote to his staff
0:15:01 > 0:15:03in the UK explaining why he's in favour of a vote to leave
0:15:04 > 0:15:05the European Union. Lord Bamford - who is a major donor
0:15:06 > 0:15:08to the Conservative Party - says in the letter that he is "very
0:15:09 > 0:15:18confident that we can stand He believes that JCB and the UK can
0:15:19 > 0:15:20prosper just as much outside the EU. He said there is very little to fear
0:15:21 > 0:15:23if we do choose to leave. Let's talk now to our political
0:15:24 > 0:15:34correspondent, Theo Leggett. It is clearly significant. It is a
0:15:35 > 0:15:38leading businessman, operating a company that employs thousands of
0:15:39 > 0:15:41people, 6,500 here in the UK, it exports all around the world. He is
0:15:42 > 0:15:45saying unequivocally - actually, we are as well off outside the European
0:15:46 > 0:15:49Union as we are within it. Now, of course, he is also a donor to the
0:15:50 > 0:15:53Conservative Party. JCB has been applauded by David Cameron himself
0:15:54 > 0:15:57as a totem of British engineering around the world. So it is
0:15:58 > 0:16:01significant he has intervened. Don't forget n recent weeks we have had
0:16:02 > 0:16:05letters written by other companies, such as Airbus and BMW and Siemens,
0:16:06 > 0:16:09all telling their staff that we are better off inside the European
0:16:10 > 0:16:14Union. So, in a sense, you could say this letter redresses some of that
0:16:15 > 0:16:17balance and allows the Vote Leave to regain the ground many people feel
0:16:18 > 0:16:23it has lost in the economic argument. Right, this is the first
0:16:24 > 0:16:26letter written by a leading businessmened a vericateding Brexit
0:16:27 > 0:16:32to his employees. Was it a big secret he was in favour of leaving
0:16:33 > 0:16:35the EU? It was no secret he was eurosceptic and he felt the sky
0:16:36 > 0:16:39would not fall in if we were to leave the European Union. He has
0:16:40 > 0:16:42been saying that for the past year but he has been operating outside of
0:16:43 > 0:16:44the major Leave campaign. He hasn't signed up to the letters written by
0:16:45 > 0:16:48other businessmen saying that leaving the EU is the way we should
0:16:49 > 0:16:52go. He has bided his time and written what reads as a personal
0:16:53 > 0:16:55letter to his own employees. He doesn't crucially tell them how they
0:16:56 > 0:16:58should vote. He merely says - these are my personal views. This is what
0:16:59 > 0:17:08I think, what I would encourage you to think, but you are voting
0:17:09 > 0:17:10according to your own belief. He stresses this vote is most
0:17:11 > 0:17:13important, more important than a general election and the most
0:17:14 > 0:17:18crucial thing is not how they vote but that they do go out and vote.
0:17:19 > 0:17:22Thank you very much. The timing is crucial in the final few weeks.
0:17:23 > 0:17:26It certainly s we'll probably expect more than of as we go on.
0:17:27 > 0:17:29Now John Major is a busy man these days - fresh from mauling
0:17:30 > 0:17:32Boris Johnson in a TV interview at the weekend, this morning he's
0:17:33 > 0:17:34been in Northern Ireland speaking alongside another former PM,
0:17:35 > 0:17:37Both of course were heavily involved in securing
0:17:38 > 0:17:41the peace process there, and they've warned that
0:17:42 > 0:17:42the still-fragile political settlement could be destabilised
0:17:43 > 0:17:49Here they are speaking a short while ago.
0:17:50 > 0:17:52So, I believe it would be an historic mistake to do
0:17:53 > 0:17:57risk of destabilising the complicated and multi-layered
0:17:58 > 0:18:00constitutional settlement that underpins the present stability
0:18:01 > 0:18:10And when we negotiated the Good Friday Agreement,
0:18:11 > 0:18:13it wasn't easier at a whole range of different levels, but one
0:18:14 > 0:18:16vital part of that, which people often overlooked,
0:18:17 > 0:18:18was that it also symbolised the new relationship
0:18:19 > 0:18:20between the Republic of Ireland and the UK, within
0:18:21 > 0:18:34So former Prime Ministers for the price of one there.
0:18:35 > 0:18:36We're joined now by the DUP's deputy leader Nigel Dodds,
0:18:37 > 0:18:39he's backing a vote to leave, and by the Shadow Northern Ireland
0:18:40 > 0:18:52Welcome to you both. Mr Dodds, let me come to you first. Tony Blair
0:18:53 > 0:18:54says - Northern Ireland's stability, it rests on carefully-constructed
0:18:55 > 0:19:00foundations, includes that we are members of the EU and that the
0:19:01 > 0:19:04Republic is a member of the EU as well. Why would you want it shake
0:19:05 > 0:19:10the foundations? Well, can I say, of all the claims that have been made
0:19:11 > 0:19:15about threats to the UK and the constituent parts of the UK if we
0:19:16 > 0:19:18were to leave the EU, I find this claim that Northern Ireland's
0:19:19 > 0:19:21political instability is going to be undermined, one of the most
0:19:22 > 0:19:27depressing and disappointing. Why is that? Well, because I think John
0:19:28 > 0:19:29Major and Tony Blair have made an enormous contribution to the
0:19:30 > 0:19:35Northern Ireland peace process over the years. I mean they carried a
0:19:36 > 0:19:39very heavy burden and, you know it wasn't everything I agreed with that
0:19:40 > 0:19:41they did but they did an enormous amount in moving the Northern
0:19:42 > 0:19:46Ireland political situation forward. I think for them to come and to use
0:19:47 > 0:19:49their authority to try to promote an argument - and there are many
0:19:50 > 0:19:51argument that could be made, but this argument that they are
0:19:52 > 0:19:55promoting about the threats to the political and peace process is one
0:19:56 > 0:20:00that is simply scaremongering and very irresponsible. Well, let's get
0:20:01 > 0:20:06- do you believe that the peace process - I was going to say unravel
0:20:07 > 0:20:10- that may be taking it too far, but would the be in more danger if we
0:20:11 > 0:20:15were to leave the EU? I think the first thing to say - I don't think
0:20:16 > 0:20:19it would unravel. And I think that would be going far too far. I don't
0:20:20 > 0:20:23think that. And I would also say I don't believe we are going to go
0:20:24 > 0:20:27back to the bad old days of the past. But I do think... In or out.
0:20:28 > 0:20:32Absolutely. So what is the case, then? I do think that much of the
0:20:33 > 0:20:35initial Good Friday Agreement and the subsequent agreements, rest on
0:20:36 > 0:20:39the assumption that both Ireland and Britain are within the EU, the
0:20:40 > 0:20:43North-South bodies, the East-West bodies, they all rest on that. I
0:20:44 > 0:20:49think it does race the issue of what will be the cons sequences, not just
0:20:50 > 0:20:53for Northern Ireland but the UK as a whole from -- consequences, from the
0:20:54 > 0:20:58UK leaving the. U. Give me a confidence and we'll put it to Mr
0:20:59 > 0:21:02Dodds. -- give me a consequence. What happens with Scotland. Let us
0:21:03 > 0:21:05not go there. But the border, what happens with the border when it
0:21:06 > 0:21:10becomes a bored between the UK and EU. What are the consequences? Mr
0:21:11 > 0:21:16Dodds, it is an open border at the moment. Would it remain or not? It
0:21:17 > 0:21:19would. The common travel area, the arrangement whereby people can move
0:21:20 > 0:21:24freely between the Irish Republic and UK has been in place since 1923.
0:21:25 > 0:21:27We have had almost 100 years. We have preicated the European Union,
0:21:28 > 0:21:33it'll outlast the European Union if we leave. It is very, very clear,
0:21:34 > 0:21:38even the Irish Ambassador to London said last year t would remain in
0:21:39 > 0:21:42place. So, look, I don't understand why people - they can make all sorts
0:21:43 > 0:21:47of argument on the economic front and all the rest of it, why there is
0:21:48 > 0:21:49this attempt to scaremonger and unsettle people and destabilise the
0:21:50 > 0:21:53situation in Northern Ireland unnecessarily. Vernon talked there
0:21:54 > 0:21:58about the institutions of the Good Friday Agreement, the St Andrew's
0:21:59 > 0:22:01agreement and so on. We have people in the East-West institutions like
0:22:02 > 0:22:04Isle of Man and Channel Islands for whom there is free movement but they
0:22:05 > 0:22:09are not members of the EU. This happens already in the context of
0:22:10 > 0:22:13East-West institutions set up under the Belfast Agreement. I think the
0:22:14 > 0:22:16two former Prime Ministers that are in Northern Ireland today, with the
0:22:17 > 0:22:21greatest respect to them, and having paid tribute to the work they have
0:22:22 > 0:22:25done, should not be going around, engaged in this kind of
0:22:26 > 0:22:30scaremongering. It really devalues their reputation, does no good at
0:22:31 > 0:22:33all and I think we should be concentrating on the really big
0:22:34 > 0:22:37issues which is - how much better it is economically, in terms of getting
0:22:38 > 0:22:41control over our borders, control over our laws, control over our
0:22:42 > 0:22:44money, for the UK as a whole to be outside the European Union. What do
0:22:45 > 0:22:48you say then that the border wouldn't change? It has been around,
0:22:49 > 0:22:54the open border since the early 1920s. Of course there was then a
0:22:55 > 0:22:58big chunk when things grew, we were both inside the EU, as things
0:22:59 > 0:23:03changed. So what with a the risk of the border be? I think the first
0:23:04 > 0:23:06point to make, is first of all when Ireland and Britain were outside
0:23:07 > 0:23:10evident EU, they were both outside and joined at the same time. So they
0:23:11 > 0:23:13have been been in the EU. The common travel arrangement has worked when
0:23:14 > 0:23:17it has been synonymous, the arrangements between Ireland and
0:23:18 > 0:23:20Britain but the danger - Nigel moved on tow trade. What would the
0:23:21 > 0:23:26consequences of being outside of the EU for goods that move backwards and
0:23:27 > 0:23:29forwards. It is not just me saying that or John Major and Tony Blair.
0:23:30 > 0:23:33We have had the Treasury, the Chancellor saying that. We have had
0:23:34 > 0:23:37the Northern Ireland Office itself pointing there could be consequences
0:23:38 > 0:23:48and recently the Home Office writing to the newry Chamber of #1k57
0:23:49 > 0:23:51commerce saying there may beism there chamber of Commerce, saying
0:23:52 > 0:23:56there maybe implications for the trading. Well, if we are outside the
0:23:57 > 0:24:04you single market, which is a possibility that someone on your
0:24:05 > 0:24:08side said, we may not get in with, and Ireland stays inside T there
0:24:09 > 0:24:14could be tariffs, big or small, tariff barriers. You would have to
0:24:15 > 0:24:20have something on the word border. If the event you outlined, and there
0:24:21 > 0:24:27are arguments about about that, but if you were inside that scenario the
0:24:28 > 0:24:31idea of physical barriers along the border is nonsense given electronic
0:24:32 > 0:24:34and digital arrangements. We don't have that arrangement in Sweden and
0:24:35 > 0:24:39Norway, and other countries where there is a border. But for most
0:24:40 > 0:24:42things that are traded Norway is in the single market and Norway has
0:24:43 > 0:24:47free movement of people I'm simply making the point that you do not
0:24:48 > 0:24:50need a hard border in order to have that kind of arrangement. The other
0:24:51 > 0:24:53thing I would say in terms of Northern Ireland and Vernon will
0:24:54 > 0:24:58remember the argument well, when we were urged to join the single
0:24:59 > 0:25:03currency, we were told that for decades the Irish Republic and
0:25:04 > 0:25:07Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK were in parity with the Irish
0:25:08 > 0:25:15pound linked inextricably with the British pound. All dire prediction
0:25:16 > 0:25:18it is would disrupt trade. The Newry Chamber of Commerce saying it would
0:25:19 > 0:25:21wipe us out. Imagine having to change the currency at the Northern
0:25:22 > 0:25:28Ireland border. None of this happened. Well let's hear Mr Coaker.
0:25:29 > 0:25:31The UK Government took the decision it woovent be in the interests of
0:25:32 > 0:25:39Northern Ireland or any other part of the UK to join the euro. And that
0:25:40 > 0:25:42was proved to be... Deand people -- and people are saying if we leave
0:25:43 > 0:25:46there will be dire consequences. You make assumptions You can go on
0:25:47 > 0:25:49records of last time. You take a balanced view on the evidence that
0:25:50 > 0:25:54comes before you. As I say, it is not only myself. It's been the
0:25:55 > 0:25:57Chancellor, the Home Office, as well as the Northern Ireland lpts It is
0:25:58 > 0:26:00Tony Blair who is in Northern Ireland today, and your former
0:26:01 > 0:26:03leader, the same man telling us about joining the single currency.
0:26:04 > 0:26:07He was held back by Gordon Brown, thankfully at the end of the day. He
0:26:08 > 0:26:10wanted to join the European currency. He is now telling people
0:26:11 > 0:26:14in Northern Ireland to stay in the EU in terms of safety and all the
0:26:15 > 0:26:17rest of it. I don't think we'll take any lessons... Well I think they
0:26:18 > 0:26:22will from Tony Blair. They may take lessons from Andrew Roberts. As an
0:26:23 > 0:26:25his store yob, you follow and know a historian, you follow and know a
0:26:26 > 0:26:28will the about Irish history. What is your view? My view is that the
0:26:29 > 0:26:31southern Irish have such enormous trade connections with Northern
0:26:32 > 0:26:36Ireland, that they would not want to cause any trouble at all, whatever
0:26:37 > 0:26:39Brussels wanted. I'm thrilled as an outer that Tony Blair is for the in
0:26:40 > 0:26:44campaign, he is the most unpopular politician. Not in Northern Ireland.
0:26:45 > 0:26:52And also, John Major, whenever he talks about Europe, he reminds us of
0:26:53 > 0:26:57the 4 billion he we lost in the ERM debacle and Maastricht. So keep
0:26:58 > 0:27:02going guys. A crystal ball. I'm told there is a clear half majority - old
0:27:03 > 0:27:06fashioned terms - a clear majority in the protestant community for
0:27:07 > 0:27:10leave but an overwhelming majority in the Catholic community for stay S
0:27:11 > 0:27:15that broadly right? I prefer to talk about unionists... You know what I
0:27:16 > 0:27:22mean. There are many unionists within the Catholics. I think most
0:27:23 > 0:27:26unionists will broadly speaking be for Leave and overwhelming in the
0:27:27 > 0:27:29nationalists, for stay, because Dublin is saying we should stay. But
0:27:30 > 0:27:36we are gaining all the time. We shall see. Thank you both.
0:27:37 > 0:27:39Mary McAleese, the President was talking about it the other evening.
0:27:40 > 0:27:41Well, we've been talking about Tony Blair the statesman
0:27:42 > 0:27:44there, and in general in interviews these days the former Labour leader
0:27:45 > 0:27:47tries to steer clear of talking too much about domestic politics.
0:27:48 > 0:27:50In a TV interview yesterday he launched his fiercest attack yet
0:27:51 > 0:27:52on current Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.
0:27:53 > 0:27:58You know, I'm accused of being a war criminal
0:27:59 > 0:28:01for removing Saddam Hussein, who, by the way, was a war criminal,
0:28:02 > 0:28:05and yet, you know, Jeremy is seen as a progressive icon as we stand
0:28:06 > 0:28:11by and watch the people of Syria barrel bombed,
0:28:12 > 0:28:13beaten and starved into submission and do nothing.
0:28:14 > 0:28:18The issue for me, is - what is the best way that you take
0:28:19 > 0:28:21the traditional values of the left and apply them to the modern world?
0:28:22 > 0:28:30Joining us to discuss this is the Labour MP Richard Burgon,
0:28:31 > 0:28:34who nominated Jeremy Corbyn for the leadership.
0:28:35 > 0:28:42Welcome back to the Daily Politics. Tony Blair has accused Jeremy Corbyn
0:28:43 > 0:28:44of being the guy with a placard, representing the politics of
0:28:45 > 0:28:49protest, unlike him, who he says represents the politics of power.
0:28:50 > 0:28:55What do you say? I think it's nonsensical to say that Jeremy
0:28:56 > 0:28:58Corbyn's leadership is the leadership of political protest. If
0:28:59 > 0:29:02you look at what the Labour opposition has achieved under Jeremy
0:29:03 > 0:29:06Corbyn's leadership. We have forced through active meaningful opposition
0:29:07 > 0:29:09U-Turn on a whole host of things, for example, u turns on tax credit
0:29:10 > 0:29:13cuts which would have cost 3 million families across the UK ?1,000 a
0:29:14 > 0:29:21year. Was that not with the help of Tory rebels? It was a U-Turn, also,
0:29:22 > 0:29:26on Sunday trading, a U-Turn on a tax, the money received on people
0:29:27 > 0:29:31living with disabilities and a U-Turn on more Draconian elements of
0:29:32 > 0:29:35the trade union bi. That's real politics, not protest politics. What
0:29:36 > 0:29:39are the tough Dell significance that is Jeremy Corbyn has taken as
0:29:40 > 0:29:43leader, which weren't generally in line with what he has protested
0:29:44 > 0:29:47about in the past? Well one example was to give a free vote to Labour
0:29:48 > 0:29:50MPs on the question of whether or not to support David Cameron's
0:29:51 > 0:29:56bombing of Syria. Was that a tough decision on leadership or did that
0:29:57 > 0:30:00exactly explicitly underline what Tony Blair has said, and shown no
0:30:01 > 0:30:04leadership It was the right thing to do and Jeremy Corbyn by persuasion,
0:30:05 > 0:30:08not by forcing people, persuaded the vast majority of Labour MPs to agree
0:30:09 > 0:30:12with him that bombing Syria wasn't in the interests of the Syrian
0:30:13 > 0:30:17people. But who made the round-up speech on behalf of the Labour Party
0:30:18 > 0:30:22and the Opposition, Hilary Benn who contradicted his position st. And 66
0:30:23 > 0:30:25Labour MPs were persuaded by the case it back Cameron's plan to bomb
0:30:26 > 0:30:29Syria the plan that Tony Blair backed and four times that number of
0:30:30 > 0:30:34Labour MPs were persuaded by Jeremy Corbyn's leadership on that issue.
0:30:35 > 0:30:37And on Trident? On Trident Jeremy Corbyn has always been clear and
0:30:38 > 0:30:42consistent on that. I think we do need to take... What leadership has
0:30:43 > 0:30:46he shown. I think we need to take on Tony Blair's comments, the reason
0:30:47 > 0:30:49being one of the great lessons of New Labour, one of the great truths
0:30:50 > 0:30:53that Tony Blair and others spoke about, was the need to always remain
0:30:54 > 0:30:58with the modern world and update and adapt to current situations and just
0:30:59 > 0:31:02as what worked in 1974, wouldn't work in 1997, what worked in 1997,
0:31:03 > 0:31:06doesn't work in 2016 whatsoever. So you think he is out of touch and he
0:31:07 > 0:31:20is in a that's how past and gone? I think Tony Blair was shown to be
0:31:21 > 0:31:23out of touch in his calls to back the invasion of Syria. I think what
0:31:24 > 0:31:30has happened to him is a real shame. He was clearly one of the most able
0:31:31 > 0:31:34political communicators in his or any generation. The sad truth is
0:31:35 > 0:31:38that through the disastrous, immoral war in Iraq and through his chasing
0:31:39 > 0:31:41of money around the globe since he retired as Prime Minister, he has
0:31:42 > 0:31:46lost the trust and respect of lots of British people who had trust and
0:31:47 > 0:31:51respect for him previously. But he did win an election after the Iraq
0:31:52 > 0:31:59war. Labour won three elections with him. And if we ask the people out
0:32:00 > 0:32:04there what they think, many people see him as symbolic of the loss of
0:32:05 > 0:32:08trust in the political class. And on that basis, you agree that the war
0:32:09 > 0:32:12in Iraq was illegal? I believe it was immoral and illegal and we will
0:32:13 > 0:32:16see what the Chilcot enquiry concludes. And the logic of that,
0:32:17 > 0:32:22you feel that Tony Blair should face some charges? I believe that the war
0:32:23 > 0:32:27in Iraq was immoral and illegal. I will wait to see what happens in two
0:32:28 > 0:32:32weeks. And if the Chilcot enquiry says that it was an illegal war, and
0:32:33 > 0:32:37is therefore illegal action is required, then it will be required.
0:32:38 > 0:32:41So you support the idea that he should face charges? I wait to see
0:32:42 > 0:32:47what the enquiry says but in my belief, it is an immoral and illegal
0:32:48 > 0:32:51war. If you take that logic, then surely he would face charges? Of
0:32:52 > 0:32:54course he would. The idea of putting a former panellist Minster on war
0:32:55 > 0:32:58crime charges is a warrant, not least because of the House of
0:32:59 > 0:33:03Commons, they voted for that war which means that it was not illegal.
0:33:04 > 0:33:07If the house of commons and the House of Lords supports something,
0:33:08 > 0:33:11it is legal. And the question of immorality, they were over showing a
0:33:12 > 0:33:22-- overthrowing a fascist dictator, which is never immoral. To take
0:33:23 > 0:33:27Andrew Roberts point, David Cameron and most of the Cabinet supported
0:33:28 > 0:33:30the war of Iraq -- in Iraq. That was a different cabinet and a different
0:33:31 > 0:33:34leadership. Andrew at the time was on record as saying that he looked
0:33:35 > 0:33:41forward to be weapons of mass destruction being found. As we know,
0:33:42 > 0:33:44they were found. Of course, because like the KGB, and the Chinese and
0:33:45 > 0:33:49the CIA and MI5, everybody thought he had them and we only discovered
0:33:50 > 0:33:53after works that he did not. What about sharing platforms with other
0:33:54 > 0:33:57politicians? Tony Blair sharing a platform with the former
0:33:58 > 0:34:03Conservative by Minister, and Ed Balls sharing a platform with George
0:34:04 > 0:34:07Osborne. Shouldn't Jeremy Corbyn share a platform with Tony Blair in
0:34:08 > 0:34:12terms of asking people to remain in the EU? I think Jeremy Corbyn is who
0:34:13 > 0:34:16he should share a platform with. But one is the former leader and one is
0:34:17 > 0:34:23the current leader, and they are both for Remain. Labour is united,
0:34:24 > 0:34:29unlike the Conservatives. Tony Blair was the prime Minister, and did so
0:34:30 > 0:34:32many good things on Northern Ireland and public services and other
0:34:33 > 0:34:36things. But I think the Jeremy Corbyn has been successful in
0:34:37 > 0:34:43putting forward a Labour vision for the European Union, distinct from
0:34:44 > 0:34:47the Conservative union. But why are they not sharing a platform? I do
0:34:48 > 0:34:52not manage his diary. But do you think that he should? I think that
0:34:53 > 0:34:57people are more disposed to believing that Jeremy Corbyn, in
0:34:58 > 0:35:01relation to his arguments on the European Union and foreign policy,
0:35:02 > 0:35:05and in relation to his trustworthiness, than they at the
0:35:06 > 0:35:08former Labour leader, Tony Blair. I loved how you kept a straight face
0:35:09 > 0:35:13asking that question. I always keep a straight face. BBC
0:35:14 > 0:35:15impartiality at its finest. And you were trying to poke me with
0:35:16 > 0:35:20your pen. I often do but not this time. The
0:35:21 > 0:35:25Chilcot report is a little more than two weeks away, it will be July the
0:35:26 > 0:35:266th, a Wednesday, so we will be near with our usual 90 minutes including
0:35:27 > 0:35:27PMQs. If Margaret Thatcher
0:35:28 > 0:35:38was still with us how would she have And I'm not talking about Fred
0:35:39 > 0:35:41Wellington who lives at the bottom of my road.
0:35:42 > 0:35:44Can anyone really claim to be able to see into the minds of big
0:35:45 > 0:35:47historical figures - or is it just a bit
0:35:48 > 0:36:00History repeats itself is the old adage but in politics, is it wistful
0:36:01 > 0:36:03thinking? Having exhausted the four horsemen of the Apocalypse, both
0:36:04 > 0:36:06sides in the referendum are searching further afield for
0:36:07 > 0:36:10historic backers to their cause. It helps if you choose someone iconic.
0:36:11 > 0:36:15And if they have said the sort of things that help. Mrs Thatcher, who
0:36:16 > 0:36:21can forget the common market jumper. Eventually she gave good copy to
0:36:22 > 0:36:26Brexit is. We want a commission of executives and we want the Council
0:36:27 > 0:36:32of ministers to be the Senate. No, no, no. In the world of Leave, some
0:36:33 > 0:36:36draw inspiration from Winston Churchill, who saved Britain from a
0:36:37 > 0:36:40Europe united only under occupation. Whilst forgetting that he coined a
0:36:41 > 0:36:49phrase. If we are to form a United States of Europe, or whatever name
0:36:50 > 0:36:54it may take, we must begin now. War has always been a driver of European
0:36:55 > 0:36:59politics. Take the Duke of Wellington, who saved Britain from
0:37:00 > 0:37:03the podium's European dream of everyone being French. He has an
0:37:04 > 0:37:07image as the sort of chap who would give the EU both barrels but was he?
0:37:08 > 0:37:17He would be a remain campaigner. He still believed in peace in Europe
0:37:18 > 0:37:21and is in political stability in Europe, and is believed
0:37:22 > 0:37:25incorporation in Europe. After all, he was one of the British
0:37:26 > 0:37:33representatives at the Congress of Vienna in 1815, and in 1818, and
0:37:34 > 0:37:39that the Congress of aroma in 1821. All of those congresses, in a sense,
0:37:40 > 0:37:44they were forerunners of European Council meetings or whatever we now
0:37:45 > 0:37:48call them. And of course, we hear talk at the moment about the
0:37:49 > 0:37:52creation of a European army, but then the soldiers he is in the field
0:37:53 > 0:38:00with are hardly all it British. No, it was certainly a European army.
0:38:01 > 0:38:04Which he commanded at Waterloo, and which defeated Napoleon. Not
0:38:05 > 0:38:09everyone will agree but his ancestors might know best. There in
0:38:10 > 0:38:13probably lies the problem of grabbing historical glamour for any
0:38:14 > 0:38:19cause. People will ignore the facts and pick the picture that most suits
0:38:20 > 0:38:21them and their argument. That was Giles in his front room.
0:38:22 > 0:38:24Now to talk about what history might teach us about the big decision
0:38:25 > 0:38:26facing the country today we're joined by Simon Schama,
0:38:27 > 0:38:29one of 300 historians who wrote a public letter backing Remain.
0:38:30 > 0:38:31And Andrew Roberts is one of a separate group
0:38:32 > 0:38:41What is the lesson of history, Simon Schama, but we should vote to
0:38:42 > 0:38:47Remain? Being British does not mean that you are not European. In my
0:38:48 > 0:38:50hand I have the names of the 25 who imposed the Magna Carta, that
0:38:51 > 0:38:57talismanic phrase, and they are all French. But they took us over and
0:38:58 > 0:39:01tried to suppress us. But they spoke French and they were part of Norman
0:39:02 > 0:39:06culture. But they did not come here as immigrants, became as conquerors.
0:39:07 > 0:39:14These are people who have had land. You are trying to argue with me, but
0:39:15 > 0:39:17if you stop a minute, will agree. Look, there are all sorts of
0:39:18 > 0:39:20moments. It would be absurd not to say that there was not his
0:39:21 > 0:39:25distinctive political tradition in British history. British history is
0:39:26 > 0:39:29about to head for a massive train wreck, gratuitous self destruction.
0:39:30 > 0:39:35Scotland will not be British history any more, it will be Anglo Welsh
0:39:36 > 0:39:41history. One of the other talismanic moments was the bill of rights,
0:39:42 > 0:39:44December of 1689, the foundation of the constitutional monarchy and much
0:39:45 > 0:39:48else, the freedom of the press. The bill is not -- the Bill of Rights
0:39:49 > 0:39:55was enabled by us joining the coalition against Louis 14th. Not
0:39:56 > 0:40:04just because it was a matter of Raison did tat. But because there
0:40:05 > 0:40:10was a community of ideals. All I'm saying is that exactly the things
0:40:11 > 0:40:15that we are instinctively proud of in the history of Britain has been a
0:40:16 > 0:40:19marriage of European instincts and our own. We have always been
0:40:20 > 0:40:22intertwined with Europe. Absolutely, but at the same time we have had
0:40:23 > 0:40:26separate historical development because of the 22 miles of salt
0:40:27 > 0:40:31water between us and the continent. And when we talk about the Bill of
0:40:32 > 0:40:37Rights, absolutely, but it was the British oligarchs who brought in the
0:40:38 > 0:40:41Dutch king. It was not an invasion from outside. It was an invasion.
0:40:42 > 0:40:45There were 20,000 troops occupying London for a year and a half. It was
0:40:46 > 0:40:51absolutely an invasion. Because they were invited in by the oligarchs.
0:40:52 > 0:40:55They did not want home-grown British tyrants to impose themselves on the
0:40:56 > 0:40:58British people. And as a result, you get religious toleration, the rule
0:40:59 > 0:41:05of law, equality before the war, these things which happen in Britain
0:41:06 > 0:41:11150 years before Louis XIV has his head chopped off. We have,
0:41:12 > 0:41:14therefore, a sense of where we do not have revolutions and massacres
0:41:15 > 0:41:18and civil wars over the last couple of hundred years here in the way
0:41:19 > 0:41:24that they did across Europe. And that has allowed us to have an
0:41:25 > 0:41:26evolutionary development of our historical sense rather than a
0:41:27 > 0:41:30revolutionary one. But what Andrew is hinting at, and not saying, is
0:41:31 > 0:41:35that there is a sense that geographically we are part of the
0:41:36 > 0:41:38European continent, but if you look over British history, do you not
0:41:39 > 0:41:43accepted that there has been an element of British exceptionalism?
0:41:44 > 0:41:50No, I think it is a matter of the liberal tradition which is embodied
0:41:51 > 0:41:55and rooted over there. What I was trying to say was that there was a
0:41:56 > 0:42:01common identity between the public that shared a tradition of relative
0:42:02 > 0:42:05freedom of speech, and that actually established itself across a language
0:42:06 > 0:42:09barrier and crossed ostensible national barriers, too. And I think
0:42:10 > 0:42:18that has on. I suppose one of the reasons that I am so passionate a
0:42:19 > 0:42:22Remainer, is I just think of British heroes, as British as British can
0:42:23 > 0:42:32be, like David Maxwell Fyfe, who was a judge of the Nuremberg trial, and
0:42:33 > 0:42:37felt it part of being British, to bring part of civil decency to what
0:42:38 > 0:42:44became a big European Bill of human rights. But as Lord Kilmuir, David
0:42:45 > 0:42:47Maxwell Fyfe opposed Britain joining the European Community in the 50s.
0:42:48 > 0:42:54He told Edward Heath that it was going to be leading to a diminishing
0:42:55 > 0:42:59of sovereignty. The same man. Does that needs to be a conflict between
0:43:00 > 0:43:11wanting to play a full part in the European Union, and retaining a full
0:43:12 > 0:43:15British identity? Of course not. The French will retain their identity.
0:43:16 > 0:43:22It is not about losing identity. So what do we gain thereby leaving?
0:43:23 > 0:43:29What it allows us to do is obtain the ability to do good in Europe,
0:43:30 > 0:43:32which we have done. In your letter, you talk about the positive aspects
0:43:33 > 0:43:35of Britain in Europe. But the reason we have been able to be so positive
0:43:36 > 0:43:45is because we have had the sovereign power to do so. But this is not
0:43:46 > 0:43:49being threatened. Among the things that got laughed at by the out
0:43:50 > 0:43:56campaign, among the concessions that were exacted from Donald Tusk by
0:43:57 > 0:43:58David Cameron, was British exemptions from directives and
0:43:59 > 0:44:05statements about an ever closer union. And these are pure words. You
0:44:06 > 0:44:12can tell the difference between the verbiage of this. But we retain our
0:44:13 > 0:44:16veto to veto the admission of any new country, just like the rest of
0:44:17 > 0:44:20the community. So we have strong pillars against the integration of a
0:44:21 > 0:44:24superstate. Historically, what we have seen in the European Community
0:44:25 > 0:44:30again and again, for over half a century, is the wearing away of
0:44:31 > 0:44:36these rights, and we see that with our ability to stop a European army.
0:44:37 > 0:44:41You can say that we will be able to stop these things in another
0:44:42 > 0:44:43half-century. We know that we will not prevent the centrifugal
0:44:44 > 0:44:48disintegration of the European Union and its reform if we leave. If
0:44:49 > 0:44:55Europe is such a good thing, why do we not get stuck in more, and play a
0:44:56 > 0:44:59bigger role? To do that, we would have to be part of the euro and the
0:45:00 > 0:45:04Schengen Agreement. You cannot be semidetached and be at the heart of
0:45:05 > 0:45:09the euro. Absolutely. We can have what we need if we manage to stay
0:45:10 > 0:45:12in. It is a grand European convention, about reforming
0:45:13 > 0:45:16political institutions in Europe. But you know with all the action in
0:45:17 > 0:45:22Europe now, it will all take place within the Eurozone. We will not be
0:45:23 > 0:45:25part of that. The further fiscal, monetary, political integration,
0:45:26 > 0:45:29that will be inside the Eurozone and we will be largely spectators. We're
0:45:30 > 0:45:33not talking about fiscal and monetary integration. We are talking
0:45:34 > 0:45:37about, for example, I think it would be very good of the Council of
0:45:38 > 0:45:42ministers had a share of the proposal of litigation rather than
0:45:43 > 0:45:43it being shared by the individual states. The condition is being part
0:45:44 > 0:45:52of Europe in the first place. Is When we came into Europe, Ted
0:45:53 > 0:45:55Heath said it needed the full-hearted consensus of the
0:45:56 > 0:46:02British people. The reason we are not getting into Europe, is we do
0:46:03 > 0:46:05not have that. It is going that there isn't full-hearted consent
0:46:06 > 0:46:11Full-hearted consent of our children and grandchildren. Age group between
0:46:12 > 0:46:1418-24. We oldies are imposing something on our children. Do you
0:46:15 > 0:46:18think certain age groups should be allowed to vote (I would love to be
0:46:19 > 0:46:24disfranchised. Maybe they will have changed their minds by the time they
0:46:25 > 0:46:32get to your age. They don't. You are a historian, not a sear. That's
0:46:33 > 0:46:38enough of today's episode of The His interest I Boys. By public demand,
0:46:39 > 0:46:42they will return I am I'm not saying when but they will, when we have the
0:46:43 > 0:46:46full-hearted support of our viewers. -- the history Boys.
0:46:47 > 0:46:48As the referendum draws closer, we have been showcasing
0:46:49 > 0:46:51the arguments for Leave and Remain made by members of different
0:46:52 > 0:46:53political parties who've been using our trusty soapbox.
0:46:54 > 0:46:55Today it's the turn of the Liberal Democrats.
0:46:56 > 0:46:57In a moment we'll hear from the party's leader
0:46:58 > 0:47:00Tim Farron on why he thinks we should Remain in the EU.
0:47:01 > 0:47:02But first, here's the former Lib Dem MP Paul Keetch.
0:47:03 > 0:47:05Believe it or not, he's one of a very small number
0:47:06 > 0:47:14of Liberal Democrats who thinks we should Leave the EU.
0:47:15 > 0:47:19I believe that nations achieve more working together.
0:47:20 > 0:47:25Because I am a liberal, democrat and internationalist
0:47:26 > 0:47:29Lib Dems believe the power should be held close to the individuals
0:47:30 > 0:47:41Free trade has been the Liberal solution for peace and prosperity
0:47:42 > 0:47:43for centuries but that principle now ends
0:47:44 > 0:47:47We are seeing refugees fleeing the Middle East
0:47:48 > 0:47:50and North Africa and the EU has re-erected border controls.
0:47:51 > 0:47:57Free movement has become a closed door to the rest of the world.
0:47:58 > 0:47:59Moving to the UK should be about the skills and values,
0:48:00 > 0:48:06I'm delighted to have been joined by Liberal Democrat supporters
0:48:07 > 0:48:08all over the country who are going to vote leave.
0:48:09 > 0:48:10Not in spite of being Liberal Democrats,
0:48:11 > 0:48:24but because we are Liberal Democrats.
0:48:25 > 0:48:34Now as we said he is very much in a minority in a party that's
0:48:35 > 0:48:38overwhelmingly for Remain. Now here's the party
0:48:39 > 0:48:40leader Tim Farron, with the Liberal Democrat case
0:48:41 > 0:48:48for remaining the EU. Well this referendum is about
0:48:49 > 0:48:51the character of our country. Do you see Britain as a country that
0:48:52 > 0:48:54stands apart from others, glowering across the White Cliffs
0:48:55 > 0:48:59of Dover in bad-tempered isolation? Or do you see Britain
0:49:00 > 0:49:02as an outward-looking country that works with its neighbours to build
0:49:03 > 0:49:06a more prosperous and secure world? Our economy will be stronger
0:49:07 > 0:49:09if we take a lead in Europe. Building an economy fit
0:49:10 > 0:49:16for the future, not casting Our environment is better-protected
0:49:17 > 0:49:19for future generations by working with Europe
0:49:20 > 0:49:22to tackle climate change. Our security is boosted by working
0:49:23 > 0:49:25with countries who are our friends, share our values and also
0:49:26 > 0:49:26face similar threats. I want my children to grow up
0:49:27 > 0:49:33in a confident Britain, pursuing prosperity and peace
0:49:34 > 0:49:36in cooperation with our neighbours. Not a sullen country,
0:49:37 > 0:49:40cut off from the continent. We share democratic
0:49:41 > 0:49:45and liberal values. And to discuss this further,
0:49:46 > 0:50:04we're joined by Paul Keetch and by the President
0:50:05 > 0:50:15of the Liberal Democrats, Who do you represent, Paul Keetch?
0:50:16 > 0:50:18Just you? No there are about 600 members of Liberal Leave throughout
0:50:19 > 0:50:22the country, probably bigger than any Liberal Democrat constituency.
0:50:23 > 0:50:26I've been astonished by the age range, the number of councillors who
0:50:27 > 0:50:28have come across to us and students from Oxford University. We are an
0:50:29 > 0:50:32interesting group of people. Interesting is a word - an
0:50:33 > 0:50:34interesting word you should use. But you are not exactly representative
0:50:35 > 0:50:38of the Liberal Democrat party. Because at the core of its beliefs
0:50:39 > 0:50:43is the EU being part of it and playing a very major role in it? No,
0:50:44 > 0:50:45what the core of Liberalism is about, is about being
0:50:46 > 0:50:54internationalist. What worries me about what the EU has become is a
0:50:55 > 0:50:57for tress Europe. -- Fortress.s it is note Liberal or democratic. It is
0:50:58 > 0:51:01time we accepted that and did something about it. What do you say
0:51:02 > 0:51:04An extraordinary skewed view of Europe. It is by no means perfect.
0:51:05 > 0:51:07And the Liberal Democrats are amongst the people who say reform
0:51:08 > 0:51:11should come. We have fought for reform in the past and we'll
0:51:12 > 0:51:15continue to do that but we are much, much stronger N the benefit,
0:51:16 > 0:51:19particularly of the single market espouses all the free trade things
0:51:20 > 0:51:22that Liberals talked about in the 19th century and doesn't prevent
0:51:23 > 0:51:27trade with the rest of the world, as we know. You said For the rows
0:51:28 > 0:51:31Europe. Can he not trade with anybody outside of the EU? The EU
0:51:32 > 0:51:35hasn't got a trade agreement with India. Can we not trade with other
0:51:36 > 0:51:40parts of the world outside the EU. We have not trade with India, unless
0:51:41 > 0:51:49the EU let us do that. My point is that we have a society based on what
0:51:50 > 0:51:52was a free trade area, has turned into a monster in Brussels that
0:51:53 > 0:51:59constrains Britain from trading with the world. When did you want to
0:52:00 > 0:52:03leave, or have you always been anti-Europe? I have always been a
0:52:04 > 0:52:08eurosceptic. And still a Liberal Democrat It is not any more I leave
0:52:09 > 0:52:13a Liberal thing. Liberals believe in devolving power down from the centre
0:52:14 > 0:52:17to the communities, to devolved assemblies to mayors and
0:52:18 > 0:52:21commissioners. The EU is sucking power into the centre of Brussels
0:52:22 > 0:52:25Doesn't he have a point, devolving power down to local people. Let them
0:52:26 > 0:52:29decide. What happens in the EU with the Committee of the regions which
0:52:30 > 0:52:32nobody has talked about so far in the campaign is our elected
0:52:33 > 0:52:35representatives in an area come together to work with Brussels on
0:52:36 > 0:52:40the projects we ought to be doing locally. So actually there is more
0:52:41 > 0:52:44subsidiarity, their ghastly word for t but involvement at a local level
0:52:45 > 0:52:46than people are aware of. It is certainly by elected
0:52:47 > 0:52:51representatives. You might argue it is one step away but it is not this
0:52:52 > 0:52:54completely remote organisation that has no involvement with people in
0:52:55 > 0:53:00their communities. Its certainly true, they do. Let me take the word
0:53:01 > 0:53:05Let me take the word, democracy, Liberal Democrats. When I was the MP
0:53:06 > 0:53:09for Hereford. Most people knew I was the MP for Hereford. Ask your
0:53:10 > 0:53:13viewers do they know who their MEP S I suspect nobody out there knows who
0:53:14 > 0:53:17it is. Is that because of the system used to elect them? Well it is
0:53:18 > 0:53:21because of the fact that they regard them as being totally unimportant
0:53:22 > 0:53:25but yet they cost the British taxpayer three times as much as
0:53:26 > 0:53:29Members of Parliament. It is true, people don't know who their MEP is.
0:53:30 > 0:53:33I would agree. Most people don't know. To be honest, most people
0:53:34 > 0:53:37don't know who their MP is either, in many, many places. The key thing
0:53:38 > 0:53:41that we have to accept is that we wanted, as a UK. Democracy, to have
0:53:42 > 0:53:46a clear distinction between the role of an MP and other elected people
0:53:47 > 0:53:50and this is' one of the reasons why we went for the larger regional list
0:53:51 > 0:53:53system for Europe because we wanted to maintain there was a difference.
0:53:54 > 0:53:56However, that doesn't mean that we don't vote for those MEPs, it
0:53:57 > 0:53:59doesn't mean they report back, it doesn't mean they are not involved
0:54:00 > 0:54:04in their local communities, because they are. The turnout at MEP
0:54:05 > 0:54:15elections is rather pathetically poor. Actually, the kands dates for
0:54:16 > 0:54:18each party isn't selected by -- the candidates for the party isn't
0:54:19 > 0:54:23selected by the people, it is by political parties. What we joined in
0:54:24 > 0:54:291972 and voted for in 1975 was effectively a free trade zone.
0:54:30 > 0:54:34Rather like NAFDA between America, Mexico and Canada. They retain their
0:54:35 > 0:54:38own parliaments and currency. What this has become a is superstate
0:54:39 > 0:54:41organisation. You were never in favour of joining the euro, either.
0:54:42 > 0:54:47Personally I had my strong doubts about it. Did you fight the party's
0:54:48 > 0:54:51policy to join it? I reluctantly accepted T it never went for a vote.
0:54:52 > 0:54:55You were keen on monetary union but not political union? I think we have
0:54:56 > 0:54:58gone beyond simply monetary union. We have seen the best decision
0:54:59 > 0:55:03Britain made was not to join the euro. What can you say to people
0:55:04 > 0:55:08like Paul Keetch within our own party. I don't know how many are
0:55:09 > 0:55:11voting to leave. What will you say? Think carefully about the
0:55:12 > 0:55:15involvements this country has had in Europe and our influence. Many of
0:55:16 > 0:55:19the things he said about free trade. The UK has led on the single market
0:55:20 > 0:55:24and the UK is a major beneficiary. If we walk away from, that we lose
0:55:25 > 0:55:29power to influence it in the future. Thank you both.
0:55:30 > 0:55:30Now, the European Football Championships kicks off tomorrow -
0:55:31 > 0:55:38JoCo's very excited, she's been dusting off her vuvuzela.
0:55:39 > 0:55:43Although what she does in the privacy of her own home is none of
0:55:44 > 0:55:44our business! But will the football give us any
0:55:45 > 0:55:47clues as to how people vote We can't trust the pollsters any
0:55:48 > 0:55:55more, so we thought we'd turn to the world of football
0:55:56 > 0:55:57for a referendum prediction. And who better to give us that
0:55:58 > 0:56:00prediction than Cass the Psychic Cass lives in the United States,
0:56:01 > 0:56:11and has predicted the results of every match in the Euro 2016
0:56:12 > 0:56:14group stages, which she does by choosing between two plates
0:56:15 > 0:56:17filled with cat treats. She's predicting that Wales
0:56:18 > 0:56:22will beat England next week. So we asked her owner if Cass
0:56:23 > 0:56:31could also turn her paw to predicting the result
0:56:32 > 0:57:07on the 23rd of June - Cass is for Remain. I think we can
0:57:08 > 0:57:11all agree that's a bit of a watershed moment in that referendum
0:57:12 > 0:57:14campaign. The plate was closer, I thought to the cat. Shush.
0:57:15 > 0:57:16And if you thought that looked a bit iffy -
0:57:17 > 0:57:19so did we, but we've been assured by Cass's owners that she was acting
0:57:20 > 0:57:29It is a she now, he was a he a minute ago. Obviously had the
0:57:30 > 0:57:31operation as well. She was independent.
0:57:32 > 0:57:34Although her mystical skills are do far entirely untested,
0:57:35 > 0:57:38Now to talk about the possible relationship between the Euros
0:57:39 > 0:57:40and politics we're joined by Angus Loughran, who rose to fame
0:57:41 > 0:57:43as the statistician 'Statto' on Fantasy Football League.
0:57:44 > 0:57:54Did the Prime Minister make a mistake to have the referendum in
0:57:55 > 0:57:59the middle of a big football competition? It could go both ways.
0:58:00 > 0:58:01I don't feel so. I think the feel-good factor will go England's
0:58:02 > 0:58:06way. Remember the referendum is after the group stages. Three wins,
0:58:07 > 0:58:10they could be... What if it is #24r50e defeats? I think it could
0:58:11 > 0:58:18definitely. It'll have a huge effect if it was three defeats. Didn't
0:58:19 > 0:58:22Harold Wilson blame losing the 1970 election on the defeat. They were
0:58:23 > 0:58:26the holders and fancied to win it in 1970. You are right, if England were
0:58:27 > 0:58:30to bomb out, I think that would have a much more significant effect on
0:58:31 > 0:58:35the result of the referendum, than if England do W I expect England to
0:58:36 > 0:58:38do well. I think that will be a result. But a defeat will be
0:58:39 > 0:58:42colossal, I think. Sorry it has been so short. I blame the cat, myself.
0:58:43 > 0:58:46Thank you for joining us. The One O'Clock News is on BBC One.
0:58:47 > 0:58:54And I'll be on BBC One for This Week with Michael Portillo,
0:58:55 > 0:58:56Liz Kendall, Suzanne Evans, Martin Lewis and Quentin Letts,
0:58:57 > 0:58:59plus Michael Moore and Jerry Springer all joining me from 11.45
0:59:00 > 0:59:03It's home to a million people at any one time...
0:59:04 > 0:59:05..consumes tens of millions of meals,
0:59:06 > 0:59:10burns around ?150 billion worth of jet fuel...
0:59:11 > 0:59:13..and handles over three billion pieces of luggage a year.
0:59:14 > 0:59:20discover there's more than the air beneath the wings