:00:37. > :00:42.Just one week to go until the EU referendum.
:00:43. > :00:45.A group of senior Conservatives accuse the Bank of England
:00:46. > :00:47.and the Treasury of "peddling phoney forecasts" to scare people
:00:48. > :00:55.But Remain campaigners accuse Leave of "yet more fantasy economics".
:00:56. > :00:59.Gordon Brown has delivered a passionate speech urging people
:01:00. > :01:06.He said he was making the "positive progressive case" for staying in.
:01:07. > :01:09.And does where you live in the UK affect how
:01:10. > :01:18.We headed southwest, to see how people there
:01:19. > :01:22.Cornwall has its own way of looking at the world,
:01:23. > :01:25.and it's quite cussive and quite stroppy, and if you're going to
:01:26. > :01:27.find that kind of British characteristic of not liking being
:01:28. > :01:29.told what to do, you'll find it here.
:01:30. > :01:41.All that in the next hour and with us for the duration Times
:01:42. > :01:44.columnist and Conservative peer, Danny Finkelstein.
:01:45. > :01:47.He's got a dream day lined up today, combining his two great passions -
:01:48. > :01:52.What could be better than being with us on the Daily Politics,
:01:53. > :01:57.and then the England versus Wales match afterwards?
:01:58. > :02:09.Thank you. It's like a game of Association football. Yes.
:02:10. > :02:11.So first today, let's talk about the four senior
:02:12. > :02:15.Conservatives who have accused the Bank of England and the Treasury
:02:16. > :02:18.of "peddling phoney forecasts", to scare people into voting to stay
:02:19. > :02:22.Former chancellors Norman Lamont and Nigel Lawson and ex-Tory leaders
:02:23. > :02:25.Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Howard poured scorn on warnings of economic
:02:26. > :02:34.We had this forecast of ?3400 lost from every
:02:35. > :02:44.That was not in any way a balanced approach to this subject.
:02:45. > :02:47.And it would have been far better, I think, if these institutions,
:02:48. > :02:50.which you've described, had tried to present a balanced
:02:51. > :02:56.There are only three facts in this debate -
:02:57. > :03:03.Number one, if we leave we won't have to pay billions
:03:04. > :03:05.of pounds into the coffers of the EU.
:03:06. > :03:08.Number two, we'll have control over our immigration again.
:03:09. > :03:12.And number three, our Parliament will not be subordinate
:03:13. > :03:18.Those are the only facts - everything else is guesswork,
:03:19. > :03:21.and it's a great shame that this guesswork has been presented
:03:22. > :03:28.as fact, when it's nothing of the kind.
:03:29. > :03:43.Well, David Cameron responded with a tweet this morning.
:03:44. > :03:45.We're joined now by the Conservative MP
:03:46. > :03:47.and Leave campaigner, Andrea Leadsom, a former
:03:48. > :03:51.And our guest of the day, Danny Finkelstein,
:03:52. > :04:07.This Tory civil war is reaching quite dramatic heights. Is it worse
:04:08. > :04:11.than you thought it would be? I think it is slightly, but if I
:04:12. > :04:15.thought about it rationally, it is a very big issue, people feel very
:04:16. > :04:20.strongly about and once in gauge in it, you have to try your best to win
:04:21. > :04:26.the argument. It has a momentum of its own? Michael Howard clearly
:04:27. > :04:32.sincerely believes it is guesswork to see the economy would be damaged.
:04:33. > :04:36.I equally sincerely, whilst except it is speculative, that you have to
:04:37. > :04:39.look at risk and you have to make a decent assessment of probability. I
:04:40. > :04:48.think the consensus is against what Michael has to say. Andrea, your
:04:49. > :04:52.side is pouring scorn on institutions like the Bank of
:04:53. > :04:56.England, the Treasury, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, it's all a
:04:57. > :05:00.little Donald Trump, isn't it? Not at all, I think what we are saying
:05:01. > :05:04.is the forecasts that are being put out assume a modest trade deal with
:05:05. > :05:09.the EU, no free trade with anyone else in the world for 15 years and
:05:10. > :05:12.are productivity collapses. It is not surprising, if you put those
:05:13. > :05:16.assumptions in, you get bad forecasts out. There is an important
:05:17. > :05:22.point about the Bank of England here. They're remit is financial
:05:23. > :05:25.stability and they have independent monetary policy setting but not in
:05:26. > :05:35.any other area. The Bank of England setting out with an -- partial view
:05:36. > :05:40.is dangerous. Do you think the governor has gone beyond his remit?
:05:41. > :05:45.Yes, I think that is something the select committee might want to look
:05:46. > :05:49.into when it is over. You believe it to be so? I think the Bank of
:05:50. > :05:52.England act is very clear, the governor has independents in setting
:05:53. > :05:56.monetary policy and in all other matters must be impartial. The Bank
:05:57. > :06:00.of England in the past has talked about the risks of remaining and the
:06:01. > :06:04.risks to public services under downward pressure on wages, the
:06:05. > :06:07.risks from the Greek problem in the Eurozone yet none of that came out
:06:08. > :06:10.this time. It was just what investors might do and what
:06:11. > :06:15.households might do, not in his remit. Ukraine people are making
:06:16. > :06:20.unrealistic assumptions on the other side of the argument. Though not all
:06:21. > :06:24.the assumptions you listed are made by everybody. -- you said people are
:06:25. > :06:28.making unrealistic assumptions. It is a fair assumption if we leave,
:06:29. > :06:33.that whatever our relationship is with the EU, and of course we will
:06:34. > :06:36.continue to have a trading relationship, I don't think anyone
:06:37. > :06:41.could do neither, but it will not be as open and give us the same open,
:06:42. > :06:47.untrammelled access we have now. That is a fair assumption, isn't it?
:06:48. > :06:51.I don't agree. The fact is we are unique in the world, having an
:06:52. > :06:55.economy that is totally aligned for the last 43 is, all of our roles,
:06:56. > :07:00.the contents of the sausage is aligned to that of the EU. We
:07:01. > :07:04.currently trade tariff free so be very easy and more in their interest
:07:05. > :07:08.than owls to continue to trade tariff free. You are claiming we
:07:09. > :07:14.could leave the EU, which would mean, because you've made a big song
:07:15. > :07:18.and arms about it, ending free movement of peoples, but we would
:07:19. > :07:23.still access the single market on the same basis as we do now? We
:07:24. > :07:28.would continue to trade tariff free because it is more in their
:07:29. > :07:33.interests than ours. Let me be clear, on the same basis as now, we
:07:34. > :07:38.would trade on the same basis is your claim? It is absolutely in
:07:39. > :07:41.their interests even more than ours. We have a big deficit with the
:07:42. > :07:46.European Union. Let's be clear, the EU has some modest trade agreements
:07:47. > :07:51.with the rest of the world, not as much as Switzerland, but it does
:07:52. > :07:55.have some. And they do not have free movement of labour. So is to suggest
:07:56. > :08:00.the only way to access the European market tariff free is with freedom
:08:01. > :08:05.of movement is not true, Andrew. If Europe was to agree that there would
:08:06. > :08:09.be no price of membership for being part of the single market, that
:08:10. > :08:14.there is no free movement. We won't be part of the single market. You're
:08:15. > :08:20.saying we would have the same access as if we were. No, the single market
:08:21. > :08:25.has become a big issue. We do not want to be in the single market, we
:08:26. > :08:31.want to trade tariff free. But in the terms of trade, the same access
:08:32. > :08:36.as we do now? I believe so. If the European Union conceded that to us,
:08:37. > :08:41.what would stop Sweden, Denmark, Poland, other countries on, we'll
:08:42. > :08:44.have that as well, if the Brits get that? The European Union elite is
:08:45. > :08:50.never going to agree to that, you know that. The point is it is not up
:08:51. > :08:58.to the European elite. We hear so much about the European elite. It is
:08:59. > :09:02.up to them. Businesses do business with businesses. We don't even have
:09:03. > :09:06.a free-trade agreement with the United States. You don't need a
:09:07. > :09:13.free-trade agreement to do business. They are telling us not to leave the
:09:14. > :09:20.EU. No, Dyson, the bulk of SMEs are telling us to leave. The bulk, it is
:09:21. > :09:24.the bulk, the bulk of big businesses are telling Britain to stay in the
:09:25. > :09:28.European Union. Big businesses. That's what I said. We are all
:09:29. > :09:33.proposing we should ignore that... What makes you think if your advice
:09:34. > :09:37.is to ignore that it is not the advice of other European countries
:09:38. > :09:42.question mark Jamie Diamond of JP Morgan says we should stay in EU. JP
:09:43. > :09:45.Morgan have been fined $8 billion for their deliberate part in
:09:46. > :09:49.creating the financial crisis that brought the world to its knees. Can
:09:50. > :10:00.make speak for the poor people, the workers in this country? I have one
:10:01. > :10:03.question. You've claimed, your colleagues, if we leave we can
:10:04. > :10:07.design rules, talking about access rules, that sued the British
:10:08. > :10:14.economy, not the requirements of Latvia or Spain. What Latvian
:10:15. > :10:19.requirements have we had to meet? What I'm saying is that because we
:10:20. > :10:23.have a big trade deficit with Europe, because they sell more to us
:10:24. > :10:27.than we do to them. That's all I'm asking you. Your people are saying
:10:28. > :10:31.we have to meet the requirements of Latvia or Spain. So let me widen it
:10:32. > :10:37.to both, what requirements from Latvia or Spain have we been forced
:10:38. > :10:41.to meet? The UK, 60% of all our rules and regulations come from the
:10:42. > :10:46.European Union. There are all manner of regulations about things like the
:10:47. > :10:54.live export of animals, VAT on fuel bills, with forced to obey those. So
:10:55. > :10:56.you can't name any? They're named under 28 EU states by the European
:10:57. > :11:00.Commission. We will leave it there. The polls are generally
:11:01. > :11:02.uncertain on how the nation will vote on June 23rd,
:11:03. > :11:05.but as we get closer to that date, Including some this morning and
:11:06. > :11:15.another later on today. After the fiasco of last
:11:16. > :11:18.year's general election, there's been a lot more attention
:11:19. > :11:20.paid in this campaign Phone polls have most
:11:21. > :11:24.frequently shown Remain with a lead, whereas online polls have tended
:11:25. > :11:27.to show the two sides neck and neck. Let's plot a very small number
:11:28. > :11:31.of the polls so far. In the middle of May an Ipsos
:11:32. > :11:34.MORI phone poll gave Remain an 18-point lead -
:11:35. > :11:36.by far the biggest in But signs that the tide
:11:37. > :11:41.may be turning somewhat emerged at the end of May,
:11:42. > :11:44.as an ICM poll gave As we move toward the finish,
:11:45. > :11:50.the picture has only grown more confused -
:11:51. > :11:53.with an online poll last week from Opinium giving
:11:54. > :11:55.Remain a two-point lead, only for the weekend to see a YouGov
:11:56. > :11:58.online survey placing This week a ComRes telephone poll
:11:59. > :12:09.gave Remain a 1-point advantage, and this morning Ipsos-MORI
:12:10. > :12:12.released a poll showing the Leave side ahead by 6 -
:12:13. > :12:21.excluding undecided voters. And before we came on air a new poll
:12:22. > :12:24.from Survation was released, showing a swing to Leave with 45%
:12:25. > :12:26.favouring 'out' and 42% We can talk now to John
:12:27. > :12:46.Curtice, President of Let's look at those polls in more
:12:47. > :12:52.detail, what do they tell us? They tell us even phone polls are not
:12:53. > :12:56.sure that Remain are going to win and perhaps Leave now are marginally
:12:57. > :13:06.favourites. We had it is as morally this morning putting the Leave side
:13:07. > :13:12.on 43 and Remain and 45. That was part relating to the changes in the
:13:13. > :13:16.regulations of phone polls on the way they waited their data, but even
:13:17. > :13:20.taking that into account this poll showing quite a substantial swing in
:13:21. > :13:28.favour of Leave. The poll that has just come out confirms that story.
:13:29. > :13:32.It is around a 5-6 point swing as compare to the same company's poll a
:13:33. > :13:36.few months ago. The truth is, if you take the polls, the phone polls this
:13:37. > :13:41.week, they have marginally put Leave head. The Internet polls have also
:13:42. > :13:47.been putting Leave slightly ahead. The two polls might be converging to
:13:48. > :13:52.some degree and converging around a picture where Leave probably now
:13:53. > :13:58.have a narrow position of around 52-53% of the vote, which I think
:13:59. > :14:01.Texas to a crucial point. One of the things we are aware of about
:14:02. > :14:07.referendums is they often the appetite for change will stop we
:14:08. > :14:11.might think some voters will go back towards Remain as they become
:14:12. > :14:17.concerned about the risks in the last week. Once Leave are at 52-53,
:14:18. > :14:21.I think we've reached the point where we have to save the Leave have
:14:22. > :14:25.at least a 50% chance of winning. Let's say this is a turning point as
:14:26. > :14:30.you are stating it. If we believe the polls as they are at the moment,
:14:31. > :14:36.what is leading to dish it, in your mind, towards Leave?
:14:37. > :14:41.The shift first emerges in polling conducted after the 22nd of May.
:14:42. > :14:45.That is the day when official election period kicks in and when
:14:46. > :14:50.the British government no longer had access to the resources of the
:14:51. > :14:53.British civil services. Before that the Remain were controlling the
:14:54. > :14:58.agenda and what the debate was about and focusing the referendum on the
:14:59. > :15:03.issue of the economy and alleged dire consequences that would flow
:15:04. > :15:07.from leaving. Since the 22nd of May, the Leave side have been at least
:15:08. > :15:12.the equal of the Remain sights on getting their issues onto the agenda
:15:13. > :15:15.and we have had occasions when Leave have been putting statements are and
:15:16. > :15:18.Remain has had to respond. That is the first point. The second point,
:15:19. > :15:22.something that has emerged in polling at the weekend and again
:15:23. > :15:31.this morning in the Ipsos MORI poll, which is it looks as though maybe
:15:32. > :15:33.the Remain side have over edge the pudding in their claims about what
:15:34. > :15:36.would be the economic consequences of leaving. Only one in five of us
:15:37. > :15:43.apparently believe we would be ?4300 worse off by 2030. More broadly,
:15:44. > :15:47.although many of voter thinks that maybe we will be worse off if we
:15:48. > :15:52.leave the EU, very few voters are convinced we are going to be better
:15:53. > :15:55.off as a result of remaining. It is very much a one trick pony campaign
:15:56. > :15:59.and it may be that record has just begun to where a bit thin for too
:16:00. > :16:03.many voters. As we are getting very close there haven't been many people
:16:04. > :16:04.willing to pin their colours to the mast, in terms of the result, what
:16:05. > :16:12.is your prediction? Until this morning I would have said
:16:13. > :16:17.to you on the balance of probability, but no more than the
:16:18. > :16:21.balance of possibilities, Remained were the favourites. I think we no
:16:22. > :16:24.longer have a favourite in this referendum. The balance of
:16:25. > :16:27.probability, in terms of time to change, as you stated, you thought
:16:28. > :16:33.this was a turning point, is there much room for manoeuvre a tree now
:16:34. > :16:38.and next Thursday? There is a week to go, we know from recent
:16:39. > :16:41.referendums, not least the Scottish one, that things can turn in the
:16:42. > :16:45.course of the last week. It is pretty clear that support for US in
:16:46. > :16:49.that referendum did diminish by couple of points also in the last
:16:50. > :16:54.week. If Remain can get that advantage than maybe they will still
:16:55. > :16:57.win, but it looks as though if the polls are right at all they now have
:16:58. > :17:01.to bank on that happening, because if it doesn't happen, there must be
:17:02. > :17:05.a serious possibility that we will vote to leave.
:17:06. > :17:12.Danny Finkelstein, do you agree with John Curtice, that the remain side
:17:13. > :17:20.over egged the economic consequences of leaving the EU? No, I thought it
:17:21. > :17:25.was top class analysis, and I agreed with his forecasts. But I didn't
:17:26. > :17:28.agree with that. Because if you believe that leaving the European
:17:29. > :17:31.Union is a bad idea, you believe those economic consequences will
:17:32. > :17:36.follow. Lotsa people will think it is trying to scare people, and
:17:37. > :17:41.obviously the remain side is trying to make these points as strong as
:17:42. > :17:45.possible. But one of my primary reasons of being in favour of remain
:17:46. > :17:50.is that the economic consequences will be severe. Andrew does not
:17:51. > :17:56.agree with that. Do you think the emergency budget idea backfired? My
:17:57. > :18:00.own view of it is if we leave the European Union, the budgetary
:18:01. > :18:04.consequences in both the short and long term will be serious, and that
:18:05. > :18:08.is the reason, and it is worthwhile sharing that judgment, which is also
:18:09. > :18:12.the judgment of lots of other economists with the electorate.
:18:13. > :18:16.Naturally it is not the judgment of everybody, including people I work
:18:17. > :18:23.with and respect and like, but it is the judgment of the remain campaign.
:18:24. > :18:27.And certainly my judgment, and I think I should share it. Do you
:18:28. > :18:40.think there was a point when the economic argument was won? What I
:18:41. > :18:46.would accent is that the Remain campaign would make those arguments.
:18:47. > :18:49.What I would argue to the reason why Leave are improving our position is
:18:50. > :18:58.that people realise that remaining in the EU has massive risks to the
:18:59. > :19:04.economy. We are already the third biggest contributor, we already will
:19:05. > :19:09.be the second biggest contributor, and of course their problems are
:19:10. > :19:13.going to end up being paid for by UK taxpayers. So people recognise if we
:19:14. > :19:17.stay in actually it is not going to be good for our public services or
:19:18. > :19:25.for our pockets. Thank you very much. Not long to go now. Do you not
:19:26. > :19:32.think we are going to win? Are we on air? The answer is yes or no? I
:19:33. > :19:40.think it is incredibly too close to call. Too close to call, I will
:19:41. > :19:42.settle for that. Keeps us in a job anyway.
:19:43. > :19:46.The question for today is which group have written a letter
:19:47. > :19:49.to The Times today urging a vote to Remain, and warning
:19:50. > :20:03.At the end of the show, Danny will give us the correct answer.
:20:04. > :20:05.Earlier this morning, the last Labour Prime Minister chose,
:20:06. > :20:08.not a letter in the Times, but on a stage in Manchester
:20:09. > :20:13.In a speech to win over those still struggling to make
:20:14. > :20:16.up their minds about how to vote, Gordon Brown delivered a passionate
:20:17. > :20:25.speech urging people to vote to stay in the European Union.
:20:26. > :20:28.You'll see I'm not here to make a speech in support
:20:29. > :20:32.I'm here to make a speech in support of Labour values,
:20:33. > :20:38.Labour supporters - I'm asking, as Labour voters,
:20:39. > :20:43.to support the Remain vote in the European campaign.
:20:44. > :20:45.And because this campaign is not about candidates
:20:46. > :20:48.and it's not about parties, you're voting about the cause.
:20:49. > :20:52.I want you to vote for a positive, a principled, a progressive case
:20:53. > :20:55.for a European Union that creates jobs, creates opportunities,
:20:56. > :20:58.creates infrastructure, creates security for the people
:20:59. > :21:07.of this country, and that's where I think this debate has got to go.
:21:08. > :21:12.In a moment, we'll be talking to the Labour donor John Mills,
:21:13. > :21:17.But first Neil Kinnock joins us in the studio.
:21:18. > :21:22.He of course is campaigning to remain. We heard from Gordon Brown,
:21:23. > :21:26.we have also heard from John McDonald, the Shadow Chancellor, and
:21:27. > :21:31.he said that a remain vote, plus a Labour government, would mean the
:21:32. > :21:38.country getting an extra 35mm and from the European investment bank,
:21:39. > :21:42.an extra ?1320 per household. Is he right? It is entirely feasible
:21:43. > :21:46.because last year the European investment bank at about 5.6 billion
:21:47. > :21:52.in loans at super cheap rates into universities, schools, the
:21:53. > :21:58.non-governmental sector, and it is a real source of investment in
:21:59. > :22:04.absolutely vital development that is now being properly touched. And it
:22:05. > :22:08.would be in future, so I guess a Labour government could do it. I
:22:09. > :22:13.actually think the Tories would be successful in doing it. Let's take
:22:14. > :22:17.it at face value. Let's say it is feasible and credible. Does it work,
:22:18. > :22:23.in terms of persuading voters at this late stage, to put out specific
:22:24. > :22:29.numbers? Do they really think they will get that specific amount per
:22:30. > :22:31.household? I am not privy to John's thoughts, but as a way of
:22:32. > :22:40.demonstrating tangible, productive thoughts, it is a demonstration of
:22:41. > :22:42.the access we have as of the EU. While the International Monetary
:22:43. > :22:48.Fund does lend outside the European Union it is at a very modest level.
:22:49. > :22:52.Virtually none. So do you think it will persuade people struggling to
:22:53. > :22:56.decide, Labour voters particularly, do you think Labour has been united
:22:57. > :23:00.in its message and clear in that it has been saying? I think it has been
:23:01. > :23:05.very strong, very straightforward, strong emphasis on the social
:23:06. > :23:10.dimension, which is sensible. Strong emphasis on the need, which I would
:23:11. > :23:14.strongly emphasise, to sustain what ever certainty and security we can,
:23:15. > :23:21.because the victims of uncertainty and prolonged doubt, and the victims
:23:22. > :23:24.of instability are invariably the people that Labour most stands up
:23:25. > :23:28.for, people on low and middle incomes. Let's take those people on
:23:29. > :23:34.low and middle incomes. Who is right, the deputy leader, Tom
:23:35. > :23:38.Watson, when he says we need to curb the freedom movement principle, and
:23:39. > :23:41.you can say as someone who has experience of being in the EU and
:23:42. > :23:46.its institutions, that is a main tenant of the European Union. Or
:23:47. > :23:54.Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonald, who say we welcome free movement? It is
:23:55. > :23:55.part of the single market. If we are in the free market, we have free
:23:56. > :24:04.movement. There are doubts about the
:24:05. > :24:08.unfettered principle of free movement. Attention is being given.
:24:09. > :24:13.I do know what the stage of deliberations are, to the idea of
:24:14. > :24:17.qualifying, relating for instance to free movement of workers. They are
:24:18. > :24:20.not conclusive and I am not pretending that they are, but that
:24:21. > :24:24.kind of consideration is taking place. The important thing, the
:24:25. > :24:31.absolutely vital thing is that since we have free movement, what we need
:24:32. > :24:35.to attend to is the way in which it can be abused by unscrupulous
:24:36. > :24:39.employers, by the way they only advertise abroad, by gang masters
:24:40. > :24:43.and those who would, regardless of the origins of their workforce, the
:24:44. > :24:48.underpaying them and mistreating them in any case. That is what we
:24:49. > :24:51.have to attend to. It is quite late in the day some might argue for
:24:52. > :24:55.someone like Tom Watson to be raising this idea, but why can't
:24:56. > :24:58.people in the Remain side, not you particularly, bring themselves to
:24:59. > :25:02.say forget about all of the economic dire warnings, the scaremongering
:25:03. > :25:08.going on, we believe the EU is a really good thing and Britain should
:25:09. > :25:11.stay in it? Yes, anything that is the message coming through. Can I
:25:12. > :25:15.address this business about scaremongering? We have seen is
:25:16. > :25:19.analysis by all the independent analysts, by the Bank of England, by
:25:20. > :25:25.the trade unions, and the conclusion they reach is that we would invite
:25:26. > :25:30.great uncertainty and insecurity if we were to come out of the European
:25:31. > :25:35.Union. But the poll show that is not working. OK, but what they have been
:25:36. > :25:38.doing is Chad allegiance, risk analysis, not scaremongering, and it
:25:39. > :25:41.is the kind of thing you do before you bought a car or a house, so we
:25:42. > :25:46.have got to do it before we decide future of our country and children.
:25:47. > :25:50.So let's push the scaremongering side to one side and put it into
:25:51. > :25:53.proportion of whether it is. Today, we have a Tory MP attacking the
:25:54. > :25:57.government and the bank in and for doing his job. The attack would have
:25:58. > :26:03.had to have been mounted if Mr Carney had not been doing his job.
:26:04. > :26:05.All right, that was Neil Canet, O'Neill said your son there!
:26:06. > :26:14.LAUGHTER I didn't say anything! -- that was
:26:15. > :26:20.Neil Kinnock. John Mills, welcome to the programme. Gordon Brown has said
:26:21. > :26:23.today that it was EU funding that stopped the Conservatives turning
:26:24. > :26:28.our industrial heartlands to industrial wastelands in the 1980s.
:26:29. > :26:32.Is he right? I don't think that can possibly be right. We were paying a
:26:33. > :26:35.large net contribution to the European Union during that time, so
:26:36. > :26:38.funds were coming back from the European Union to help industry in
:26:39. > :26:41.that country, but it would have been our own money coming back, not fresh
:26:42. > :26:46.money from the European Union coming from somewhere else. What about the
:26:47. > :26:50.claim Gordon Brown makes that staying in the EU will mean an extra
:26:51. > :26:56.500,000 jobs in the next ten years. Is he wrong about that? I don't see
:26:57. > :26:59.how anyone can make projections like that but any credibility. Nobody
:27:00. > :27:02.knows what's going to happen. I think the British economy is
:27:03. > :27:06.threatened by a number of external and internal threats at the moment,
:27:07. > :27:10.which are much more significant than anything to do with Brexit. So we
:27:11. > :27:15.may well see a downturn coming up but that won't be the fault of
:27:16. > :27:19.Brexit, it will be because of instability in Greece and Italy and
:27:20. > :27:24.Saudi Arabia and China, and problems in the UK with our very unbalanced
:27:25. > :27:27.economy. You said there will be a external factors affecting the
:27:28. > :27:31.economy, but if we take the issue of jobs, you say Gordon Brown can't
:27:32. > :27:35.look into the future and make that claim. Let's have a look at the
:27:36. > :27:38.employment figures as they stand. Yesterday showed the unemployed and
:27:39. > :27:43.great just 5%, the lowest since 2005. We have achieved that
:27:44. > :27:48.well-being in the EU, so surely that is a very big push to staying in? I
:27:49. > :27:51.think that is something very much to be welcomed. Whether it is our
:27:52. > :27:56.membership of the European Union that has done that, I think it is a
:27:57. > :28:01.rather open question. I think what we have seen recently is a consumer
:28:02. > :28:04.boom fed by rising asset values, which have in turn been fed by very
:28:05. > :28:09.low interest rates. But what we really need is more investment and
:28:10. > :28:14.more net trade, more sales and exports, than consumer led demand.
:28:15. > :28:23.It is nice to see employment as high as it is, but investment for the
:28:24. > :28:25.future is perhaps more important. You have been someone who has
:28:26. > :28:30.campaigned for more investment in some of our great cities. Labour say
:28:31. > :28:36.staying in the EU will actually help cities like Manchester, Birmingham,
:28:37. > :28:41.Glasgow and Newcastle, and these are the people that run these cities.
:28:42. > :28:44.Back to the same old issue, money is having from the European Union that
:28:45. > :28:48.we paid in in the first place. The gross amount we pay to the European
:28:49. > :28:52.Union is about ?19 billion a year. We get about eight billion pounds
:28:53. > :28:57.back altogether, so the total debt payments, including payments to EU
:28:58. > :29:04.budget and other things is about ?11 billion. There are big savings to be
:29:05. > :29:08.made there, which could be used partly to help inner cities, partly
:29:09. > :29:12.to help agriculture, industry. That is where one of the big dividends
:29:13. > :29:16.would be from the European Union would come from. How would that
:29:17. > :29:22.qualify into numeric terms, in terms of investment going into those
:29:23. > :29:25.heartlands? Of the ?11 billion, which is a large sum of money, I
:29:26. > :29:29.don't think anybody has divided that up exactly as to where it would go.
:29:30. > :29:32.Somewhat have to get agriculture if we came out of the common
:29:33. > :29:35.agricultural policy and moved to a cheaper food policy, which we had
:29:36. > :29:40.before we joined the European Union. I think there are two of ?3 billion
:29:41. > :29:43.involve there. There are other claims as well, promises made about
:29:44. > :29:46.more funding for the National Health Service as well, another hundred
:29:47. > :29:51.million pounds a week or so. There are some big sums of money involved.
:29:52. > :29:57.But I think there would still be left over quite large sums for city
:29:58. > :30:00.projects as well. Just briefly on immigration, Nigel Farage has said
:30:01. > :30:06.he would like to see immigration come down to just 50,000 a year, I
:30:07. > :30:11.think he said to you, Andrew in the recent debate. Last year, net
:30:12. > :30:15.migration was about 330,000, with just over half coming from outside
:30:16. > :30:23.the EU, not within. What would July to see happen to immigration numbers
:30:24. > :30:26.within the EU, sorry, if we left the EU? Migration watch, who have a very
:30:27. > :30:30.good track record on this, estimate the reduction we could reasonably
:30:31. > :30:34.expect to see is something in the order of 120,000 people per year,
:30:35. > :30:41.and that would bring the total net immigration down from its current
:30:42. > :30:45.330,000 to a bit over 200,000. And you think that would be a healthy
:30:46. > :30:49.number? I do think there is any easy solution to the immigration problem,
:30:50. > :30:53.to be honest with you, especially if the British economy does really
:30:54. > :30:56.well, or relatively well anyway, and the European economy has all the
:30:57. > :31:01.trouble is that it has got with the Eurozone accentuated. And we have a
:31:02. > :31:04.living wage of ?9 an hour, which is about four times the average wage in
:31:05. > :31:17.remaining and Bulgaria. John Mills and Neil Cannock, thank
:31:18. > :31:28.you. Andrea said it is too close to call, do you agree? Probably, the
:31:29. > :31:34.only thing I agree with her about! -- Neil Kinnock. It seems anyone who
:31:35. > :31:37.is anyone in the referendum campaign has been to Cornwall.
:31:38. > :31:39.Boris Johnson, Jeremy Corbyn and Alan Johnson have all been
:31:40. > :31:44.Well, our Adam headed to the southwest to see for himself
:31:45. > :31:47.what the Cornish make of the EU referendum.
:31:48. > :31:50.It's stunning, and has an intriguing relationship with the EU,
:31:51. > :31:52.so Cornwall's a great place for handsome broadcasters with a
:31:53. > :31:59.Cornwall has its own way of looking at the world,
:32:00. > :32:02.and it's quite cussive, and quite stroppy, and if you're
:32:03. > :32:05.going to find that kind of British characteristic of not liking
:32:06. > :32:07.being told what to do, you'll find it here.
:32:08. > :32:12.Nowhere is that clearer than the fish market
:32:13. > :32:26.Ask fishing folk about Europe, and there is a tidal wave of anger,
:32:27. > :32:28.mostly about quotas and how foreign boats are allowed within six
:32:29. > :32:35.Just rubbing salt in the wounds, taking our fish, billions
:32:36. > :32:39.of pounds of value of fish are being landed elsewhere.
:32:40. > :32:43.That money could be giving us jobs in our fishing industry and helping
:32:44. > :32:45.to support our fishermen, and other workers in this
:32:46. > :32:52.Most fishermen here are happy to fly a leave
:32:53. > :32:57.Some are happy to defend the EU and say that other forces
:32:58. > :33:06.Boris Johnson kicked off his Brexit campaign brandishing one of these,
:33:07. > :33:09.saying that Cornwall could export more, freed from the supposed
:33:10. > :33:22.Yet the Cornish Pasty Association is for Remain,
:33:23. > :33:23.because pasties are protected under EU law.
:33:24. > :33:25.It has left the owner here flummoxed.
:33:26. > :33:28.There are pros and cons on each side, so I'm still undecided.
:33:29. > :33:30.And pasties aren't really coming into that?
:33:31. > :33:34.They won't be my final decision, they are part of it.
:33:35. > :33:37.If Cornwall sends loads of these to the EU, then the EU sends loads
:33:38. > :33:53.More than a ?1.5 billion euros of regional funding is being spent
:33:54. > :33:56.in the county, some of it on the iconic Eden Project.
:33:57. > :33:58.It is a charity, so is staying neutral.
:33:59. > :34:03.Since we have joined the EU, we have had one new university,
:34:04. > :34:06.one upgraded university, huge further education construction,
:34:07. > :34:08.God knows how many hotels, good restaurants, galleries.
:34:09. > :34:11.And the most important thing is that Cornwall has become a place
:34:12. > :34:16.where people come to make a career, rather than to end one.
:34:17. > :34:18.Leavers reckon a future British government would still funnel
:34:19. > :34:23.Lionel Richie did two concerts in Cornwall this week.
:34:24. > :34:26.Hardly anyone here would write a love song for the EU,
:34:27. > :34:31.but will this part of the West Country vote to break up?
:34:32. > :34:33.Joining us now is Matthew Goodwin, Professor of Politics
:34:34. > :34:47.Cornwall gets lots of money from the European Union. Some will say we
:34:48. > :34:53.sent it there in the first place, but it gets it there, 1.5 billion
:34:54. > :34:58.euros of regional funding. But in few years for Remain seems muted.
:34:59. > :35:02.Why do you think that is? I think Cornwall represents a lot of
:35:03. > :35:07.other areas in the country, where support for Leave is stronger than
:35:08. > :35:11.we might expect. As a country we are very divided, not just by class and
:35:12. > :35:16.generation but by geography. Here you have coastal area, big fishing
:35:17. > :35:20.industry, older demographic, really playing to some of the messages
:35:21. > :35:25.Leave are running on. The same would have happened if you went to Great
:35:26. > :35:32.Grimsby on the east coast. The big, young urban cities will turn out en
:35:33. > :35:35.masse for Remain, but elsewhere I think Leave will have a good day.
:35:36. > :35:39.Geography is important? Lin critical. We are incredibly divided.
:35:40. > :35:47.We are looking at where campaigns focusing. Remain targeting those
:35:48. > :35:51.young university towns, Oxford, Cambridge, Brighton, Bristol. Leave
:35:52. > :35:55.is spending a lot of time on the east coast, cultivated last year at
:35:56. > :35:59.the general election by the rise of the UK Independence party and
:36:00. > :36:04.historically has always been the home of anti-London, anti-elite
:36:05. > :36:09.revolts. Remain people say to me they have a puzzle. They believe
:36:10. > :36:12.they have won the economic arguments, the public largely accept
:36:13. > :36:17.leaving is a bigger risk than remaining. But they also say but we
:36:18. > :36:21.haven't managed to get through to people our other message, which is
:36:22. > :36:24.we will be worse off, you will be worse off if you leave. People
:36:25. > :36:31.either don't think that don't seem to make it a major factor. Is that
:36:32. > :36:36.true? I don't think Remain have run a very good campaign in my own view.
:36:37. > :36:39.They have left the field of identity completely open, and that is
:36:40. > :36:46.dominating this referendum. Look at the broadcast a few days ago, no
:36:47. > :36:50.politicians but not a single mention of immigration, no mention of that
:36:51. > :36:54.whatsoever. I think the view internally in the Remain camp is
:36:55. > :37:02.let's get this focused on economic than we won't discuss our opponent's
:37:03. > :37:08.view. Some really important ComRes data a few days ago, 62% of the
:37:09. > :37:12.population were willing to take and economic knock if it meant having
:37:13. > :37:19.control of immigration. We had a new poll this morning, from the leaves
:37:20. > :37:23.campaign. One of these dramatic pictures came when the refugees who
:37:24. > :37:31.had landed in Greece from Turkey were then... It is a Ukip poster,
:37:32. > :37:35.not part of the Leave campaign. What it does show is one of these
:37:36. > :37:39.pictures as the refugees were making their way up through the Balkans to
:37:40. > :37:46.get up into Austria and then Germany. This is the Leave campaign
:37:47. > :37:49.now down essentially to that, it is a very good political
:37:50. > :37:54.strategy. If you are being provocative that is what you should
:37:55. > :38:05.be doing, focusing on the number one issue focusing their voters. Ipsos
:38:06. > :38:10.MORI took a group of voters and said if immigration status same how would
:38:11. > :38:15.you vote, 81% said the same, Remain. Then they put an increased number in
:38:16. > :38:20.front of them, by the time they got to the final scenario, that
:38:21. > :38:24.immigration would increase 200%, nearly half of the Remain vote had
:38:25. > :38:30.switched to unsure. That Remain vote is a lot shakier than people think.
:38:31. > :38:33.I corrected myself, a Ukip poster, not the official vote leaves
:38:34. > :38:38.campaign, because there has been some tension between them on how big
:38:39. > :38:42.immigration should be. That has the Remain campaign suffered by not
:38:43. > :38:46.having a credible reply on the immigration issue?
:38:47. > :38:49.I think the right way to have run the campaign has hammered the issues
:38:50. > :38:55.on which you are strong. The problem with changing the issues is you
:38:56. > :38:57.emphasise that concern. I think the big question that will settle the
:38:58. > :39:02.referendum is whether people feel they personally will lose out.
:39:03. > :39:06.Economic league? Yes, and if they feel it is a long-term effect. The
:39:07. > :39:12.question of whether that has got home is going to be what settles the
:39:13. > :39:14.referendum. If Remain get Paul Dunne to the immigration territory, for
:39:15. > :39:23.all that I understand your point, I think it would be a losing strategy.
:39:24. > :39:28.-- get pulled into. Only a week to go. Mother is very excited! We won't
:39:29. > :39:30.ask which way she's going to vote. Now, the Prime Minster has raised
:39:31. > :39:33.the spectre of World War three breaking out in the wake of a win
:39:34. > :39:36.for Leave next week. And in the last few days it's
:39:37. > :39:39.looking more and more likely he will be right, at least
:39:40. > :39:41.within the Conservative Party. We've had skirmishes
:39:42. > :39:43.for the last few weeks... But yesterday saw a serious
:39:44. > :39:45.escalation as Conservatives, both junior and senior,
:39:46. > :39:47.put the Chancellor firmly This behaviour is utterly
:39:48. > :39:56.irresponsible, it is going to damage the economy, because he scares
:39:57. > :39:59.people, and that's not right. We were well prepared
:40:00. > :40:01.for the Chancellor to say this. You have to ask why,
:40:02. > :40:04.it is because he can't make a positive case
:40:05. > :40:05.for the European Union, he can't make a positive
:40:06. > :40:08.case for the reforms. They didn't get anything worth
:40:09. > :40:14.having. So they are reduce to just trying
:40:15. > :40:17.to scare us to stay in. The Chancellor, basically,
:40:18. > :40:19.needs to calm down, and regrettably If we do vote to leave the EU,
:40:20. > :40:23.will you be supporting No, because I think what we have
:40:24. > :40:31.heard from the Remain campaign throughout this whole referendum
:40:32. > :40:43.have been dire warnings. Let's assume for the next few
:40:44. > :40:53.minutes with our discussion that it is a narrow Remain victory, which
:40:54. > :40:56.would not... It is possibly forecast in the polls. What are the
:40:57. > :41:02.consequences for the Prime Minister and Chancellor? I think the rout
:41:03. > :41:06.inside the party has been very serious on it. It has been seriously
:41:07. > :41:10.years but making it go public has made it even more serious. You
:41:11. > :41:14.cannot imagine that won't have a big impact. It is difficult to tell how
:41:15. > :41:23.Sirius it will be because you don't know how quickly people will move
:41:24. > :41:27.onto other issues. -- how serious. With no way of testing whether the
:41:28. > :41:33.Chancellor's figures were rubbish, feeling cheated in argument, and
:41:34. > :41:37.there will be some rows about issues on the side like leaflets on things,
:41:38. > :41:42.but it will be cheated an argument, and that will obviously have a
:41:43. > :41:46.long-term effect on trust and relationships. May be the Prime
:41:47. > :41:51.Minister's thinking, given he would hope to hold on in the wake of
:41:52. > :41:57.Remain, that one way to bats take the sting out of it going forward
:41:58. > :42:00.would be to remove Mr Osborne from the Treasury. Is that to make
:42:01. > :42:06.Foreign Secretary, maybe bring in Michael Gove as Chancellor only
:42:07. > :42:10.unity ticket? He will have to do some things to unite the
:42:11. > :42:14.Conservative Party. But the question isn't specific it is just a question
:42:15. > :42:20.of how big, how much trustee can gain back in general and how much he
:42:21. > :42:25.can unite the party on other issues. -- how much trust he can gain back.
:42:26. > :42:28.I do think there could be a reshuffle. But don't forget when you
:42:29. > :42:37.talk about him losing his position of leader, he has the majority of
:42:38. > :42:40.Conservative MPs for Remain. If you take out the payroll vote does he
:42:41. > :42:45.have a majority of Conservative MPs? I don't know, I think you have done
:42:46. > :42:50.the mathematics. I don't know if he'd does. I don't think that is
:42:51. > :42:53.that relevant, what is relevant is you have the majority of
:42:54. > :42:58.Conservative members of Parliament, you cannot remove the leader under
:42:59. > :43:04.those circumstances. They will also have a strong feeling... Of course,
:43:05. > :43:09.politics is chemistry not physics. There will be elements of anger and
:43:10. > :43:14.he will have to try to respond to them as best he can. Naturally
:43:15. > :43:20.Berisha forks, naturally involving potentially the Chancellor is one of
:43:21. > :43:24.his options. Of course he has a majority, will probably still have
:43:25. > :43:28.that after the referendum. Conservative backbenchers could make
:43:29. > :43:32.things difficult for him. A small majority, he could have a zombie
:43:33. > :43:37.government not able to do very much at all. How quickly do you think
:43:38. > :43:41.there will be a referendum, sorry, a reshuffle? I wouldn't have thought
:43:42. > :43:44.he would want to do it until the autumn. Immediately after the
:43:45. > :43:49.referendum, if you have won, you want to make people feel, I have to
:43:50. > :43:52.come back onside. You don't want to immediately tell them, you're not
:43:53. > :43:57.going to be in the government and they have an incentive to rebel. You
:43:58. > :44:03.want a little distance. I wouldn't anticipate it until after recess. At
:44:04. > :44:08.the moment, David Cameron's game plan, assuming he stays as Prime
:44:09. > :44:14.Minister until 2019, his private game plan, there will be a
:44:15. > :44:18.leadership contest in the summer of 2019 six or seven months before the
:44:19. > :44:24.next general election. If it is very narrow, will he be able to do that?
:44:25. > :44:28.If it is very narrow and there is continued disruption on the Tory
:44:29. > :44:34.benches, will he be able to stay until May, 2019? I would think so.
:44:35. > :44:38.There are lots of conservatives who want to remain, probably the
:44:39. > :44:43.majority of Conservative voters. Why make you think a majority? Probably.
:44:44. > :44:48.We will have to see what the result is. That is one of the issues that
:44:49. > :44:52.will set all the referendum. Not a majority of members, but the point
:44:53. > :44:55.is anybody wants to be leader of the Conservative Party after David
:44:56. > :45:01.Cameron has to have those people with them. Some of them anyway. They
:45:02. > :45:06.also need to think about how they can act in relation to David
:45:07. > :45:11.Cameron, it is not one-way. Let me ask you this, on the basis if Remain
:45:12. > :45:16.wins, let's assume Leave Winscombe how quickly will David Cameron
:45:17. > :45:20.resign? I think he would resign and have to quite quickly. You wouldn't
:45:21. > :45:23.leave office immediately. It would be hard for him to do the
:45:24. > :45:29.negotiations necessary to make leaving a success, in as far as it
:45:30. > :45:30.can be. In these circumstances would Boris Johnson be pretty much
:45:31. > :45:43.unstoppable as the next leader? We are all guessing, don't forget
:45:44. > :45:46.they have doing the support of Remain members of Parliament. Among
:45:47. > :45:49.the membership less so, and therefore I think Boris would be
:45:50. > :45:55.very, very strong in those circumstances, yes. Do you think
:45:56. > :46:02.there is any chance in the event of a Leave of chaos breaking out in the
:46:03. > :46:08.ruling country, that there could be a general election before 2020? Is
:46:09. > :46:13.that a possibility? The ruling party would have to agree to have a
:46:14. > :46:18.general election. Because you need 66% of the Commons. They would be
:46:19. > :46:22.possible. It is when the ruling party is strong you can see a case
:46:23. > :46:27.of trying to exploit Jeremy Corbyn's weaknesses, but when the ruling in
:46:28. > :46:34.chaos, you certainly wouldn't. What is the mood in Street at the moment?
:46:35. > :46:41.You have to ask them. They have said we are in a funk. Other people will
:46:42. > :46:43.be authorities on this, but my understanding is that they are
:46:44. > :46:48.relatively calm about it. They think it is very tight, but they still
:46:49. > :46:52.think they stand a very strong chance that they probably will win
:46:53. > :46:55.the referendum, and they don't really see the point of a panic.
:46:56. > :46:59.That is what I understand their view to be. You must be speaking to
:47:00. > :47:04.different people from me. Still a week to go.
:47:05. > :47:10.Over the last few weeks, we have been showcasing
:47:11. > :47:13.the arguments for remaining in the EU and leaving it
:47:14. > :47:17.On Monday, we looked at how Green supporters are approaching the vote
:47:18. > :47:20.but we had a technical problem with Green MP Caroline Lucas's film
:47:21. > :47:23.We've sorted out the gremlins now and as promised,
:47:24. > :47:38.Some people will try to scare you into voting one way
:47:39. > :47:49.We believe we are more effective when we work with our neighbours
:47:50. > :47:52.to tackle the common challenges that we face -
:47:53. > :47:56.challenges like the refugee crisis and climate change.
:47:57. > :47:59.EU rules protect workers from bad bosses and stop companies
:48:00. > :48:08.EU rules cut pollution in our cities and clean up our rivers
:48:09. > :48:12.EU membership boosts jobs in every part of the country, too.
:48:13. > :48:14.And we celebrate freedom of movement, because it gives us
:48:15. > :48:17.the ability to live and work, study and retire across the whole
:48:18. > :48:20.of the EU, and because we recognise the enormous contribution that EU
:48:21. > :48:23.nationals make to Britain - to our NHS, to our economy,
:48:24. > :48:35.The EU isn't perfect, we'd like it to be more
:48:36. > :48:38.accountable and democratic, but we believe Britain is fairer,
:48:39. > :48:40.safer and greener because of the EU, and we're fighting to stay
:48:41. > :49:03.We saw off the gremlins and the Greens have their say.
:49:04. > :49:05.With everyone so focussed on the referendum, there's been
:49:06. > :49:08.a political vote which may well have passed under your radar.
:49:09. > :49:12.I'm talking about the vote to decide the next Speaker
:49:13. > :49:16.Now, this being the Lords, only peers of the realm could take part.
:49:17. > :49:20.Now hold on to the edge of your seat - here's the result.
:49:21. > :49:22.My Lords, I can now announce the result of the election
:49:23. > :49:27.Details of the votes cast are being made available
:49:28. > :49:34.The successful candidate was Lord Fowler.
:49:35. > :49:38.What we've seen today is a parliamentary first.
:49:39. > :49:40.This is the first time a man has been elected...
:49:41. > :49:47.To the role of Lord Speaker, and I think nowadays there are few
:49:48. > :49:53.positions in public life of which that can be said.
:49:54. > :49:56.Of course, with the election over, the good news is that the bar
:49:57. > :49:59.on offering hospitality now comes to an end,
:50:00. > :50:04.and we can buy drinks for colleagues.
:50:05. > :50:07.The bad news is that inadvertently today I seem to have
:50:08. > :50:16.And the new Lord Speaker, Norman Fowler joins us
:50:17. > :50:28.-- from the Houses of Parliament. Congratulations to you, something of
:50:29. > :50:35.a landslide, about 69% of the vote I understand. Probably bigger than you
:50:36. > :50:39.ever got as a MP, had a Jew pull it off? Actually I got quite high
:50:40. > :50:45.percentages as an MP. We obviously -- how did you pull it off? It is
:50:46. > :50:49.extremely important, because I am not just speaking for anyone group,
:50:50. > :50:54.I am speaking for the whole house, and if the whole house puts their
:50:55. > :50:58.position in that way, then that strengthens me. And we heard
:50:59. > :51:05.Baroness Smith congratulating you on being the first man to hold this
:51:06. > :51:11.position, so is your victory a triumph for gender equality? I think
:51:12. > :51:15.it is just a bit of an accident that that has happened. We have had two
:51:16. > :51:21.extremely able women who have been Lord Speaker, and I don't think
:51:22. > :51:26.there was any prejudice, in fact, against there being a third woman.
:51:27. > :51:30.In fact one of the candidates was there. So Fichardt had anything to
:51:31. > :51:34.do with that. The great thing about the Lords is that, over the years,
:51:35. > :51:39.in terms of women representation, it has gone up and up. Yes, as has the
:51:40. > :51:45.number overall of course, if there is any room for any more! Now, what
:51:46. > :51:48.about what you want to achieve in your role? The first thing I really
:51:49. > :51:53.want to achieve is to try to get over to the public generally the
:51:54. > :51:59.public interest that the House of Lords serves. I mean, we do hold the
:52:00. > :52:03.government to account, but also what we do with that we checked on
:52:04. > :52:08.legislation, which may have been, if you like, guillotined in the House
:52:09. > :52:12.of Commons. I don't regard this job, or our role, as in conflict with the
:52:13. > :52:18.Commons. I think we are complimentary to the Commons. Just
:52:19. > :52:25.to get a better legislation on the statute book, and also we don't want
:52:26. > :52:28.a situation where the government, the executive, can override
:52:29. > :52:31.everything. Right, but do you think that recently the Lords has been a
:52:32. > :52:36.bit too willing to challenge the Commons in this Parliament. If we
:52:37. > :52:40.take some of the high-profile pieces of legislation that they have
:52:41. > :52:43.successfully challenged, tax credit proposals, for example, that has led
:52:44. > :52:46.the government to say there are constitutional issues, in other
:52:47. > :52:52.words the Lords, that need to be dealt with? I think we should be a
:52:53. > :52:56.little relaxed about that. If you take the tax credits issue, I know
:52:57. > :53:03.the tax credit issue, I spoke in favour when I was a partisan
:53:04. > :53:06.politician, in the old days, in favour of it. But I noticed that
:53:07. > :53:10.immediately it went back to the Commons, it was dropped, and I think
:53:11. > :53:13.it allowed the Commons to think again, and I think the government
:53:14. > :53:16.probably came to the conclusion that they were going to have some
:53:17. > :53:20.difficulty getting it through the Commons. So I think that was quite a
:53:21. > :53:25.useful thing for the Lords to have done. There were a whole range of
:53:26. > :53:29.other things, I can think of things from my own experience, when we have
:53:30. > :53:34.sent things back to the Commons, which the Commons have accepted. So
:53:35. > :53:39.of course there is going to be conflict from time to time, but we
:53:40. > :53:47.are not in a state of perpetual conflict. No, just some of the time.
:53:48. > :53:49.Norman Fowler, enjoy your new role. The house of lords, the second
:53:50. > :53:53.biggest legislature in the world, after the Chinese politburo. And
:53:54. > :54:00.obviously much more important! Boom boom. I should have told you the
:54:01. > :54:03.Bank of England has kept interest rates the same, 0.5% again,
:54:04. > :54:10.following yesterday's decision by the Fed, which was more up for grabs
:54:11. > :54:11.in Washington. So a summer looking like another summer of low interest
:54:12. > :54:14.rates. So have you made up mind how
:54:15. > :54:16.to vote next Thursday? If you haven't, you're not alone -
:54:17. > :54:20.up to 30% of people will change the way they vote or make
:54:21. > :54:23.up their minds in this last week according to research by academics
:54:24. > :54:25.at the London School of Economics. We sent our reporter Mark Lobel
:54:26. > :54:28.to Kingston upon Thames in southwest London to see if people there had
:54:29. > :54:31.made up their minds. We've come to Kingston market,
:54:32. > :54:33.where Kingston's MPs are divided over whether Britain should
:54:34. > :54:35.leave the EU. But with so much campaigning
:54:36. > :54:38.on either side, and with just a week to go, have people made
:54:39. > :54:41.up their minds? We've come to find out if people
:54:42. > :54:44.are decided or undecided. I'm still looking at the news,
:54:45. > :54:55.and getting some ideas. And just as we were getting going,
:54:56. > :54:58.look which MEP walked our way. Do you think you've done a good
:54:59. > :55:01.enough job of persuading people Actually, I haven't been trying
:55:02. > :55:04.to persuade people I've actually been going
:55:05. > :55:07.round giving talks, I've decided, but not
:55:08. > :55:11.because of the people I think there are too many
:55:12. > :55:16.politicians, there should be more ordinary people telling
:55:17. > :55:20.you what it's going to do to them. I really don't want to lose our
:55:21. > :55:24.identity, to lose our sovereignty, to lose control of our borders,
:55:25. > :55:26.blah, blah, blah. But ultimately, it will be
:55:27. > :55:33.a gut feeling. I've known all along how
:55:34. > :55:35.I was going to vote, really. So the campaigns have
:55:36. > :55:37.made no difference? So the campaigns haven't made any
:55:38. > :55:41.difference to you? Thank you very much,
:55:42. > :55:53.you can come again! We're halfway through the lunchtime
:55:54. > :55:56.rush, and I think I can see You've decided that
:55:57. > :56:03.you have decided? Is that because you just made
:56:04. > :56:10.up your decision? I've decided that I've decided,
:56:11. > :56:16.maybe because of you! # When you see how it's going to be,
:56:17. > :56:20.you're making your mind up #. Cameron two or three months before
:56:21. > :56:23.said we would leave if we didn't get the deal, and now
:56:24. > :56:26.he says we have to stay in, and he's not got a better
:56:27. > :56:30.deal out of this. I know it is important and it
:56:31. > :56:33.matters, which is one of the reasons why it's so frustrating that I can't
:56:34. > :56:36.seem to make up my mind. I feel like neither
:56:37. > :56:40.of them are good options. # When you can see how it's
:56:41. > :56:43.going to be, # You're Have you just made that
:56:44. > :56:49.decision recently? I've taken a lot of information
:56:50. > :56:54.and heard a lot of the debates, The view from Kingston market
:56:55. > :57:03.is pretty clear - the campaigns only have a small proportion
:57:04. > :57:05.of people left to persuade, so the biggest decision now
:57:06. > :57:08.is what to have for lunch, a French crepe, an Italian pizza,
:57:09. > :57:24.or a nice hot Cornish pasty...? Or a brandy and soda. Still a number
:57:25. > :57:31.of don't knows. Do you really think this LS E research that 30% are yet
:57:32. > :57:36.to make up their minds? I haven't seen their exact word is, but often
:57:37. > :57:39.the people who say they are undecided have decided, they just
:57:40. > :57:42.don't know it. When you begin to press people on their underlying
:57:43. > :57:46.feelings, you discover that they do really know what they think, but
:57:47. > :57:49.they just haven't finally said that is definitely my view explicitly,
:57:50. > :57:55.but really you can work out what they're going to do. I think there
:57:56. > :57:58.probably isn't 30% of people who are going to change their mind or who
:57:59. > :58:00.have not decided at this point. We have to do our quiz. Oh gosh, I had
:58:01. > :58:03.forgotten about that. There's just time before we go
:58:04. > :58:06.to find out the answer to our quiz. The question was which group have
:58:07. > :58:09.written a joint letter to The Times today urging a vote to Remain,
:58:10. > :58:12.and warning of the dangers It could be anyone, but it is
:58:13. > :58:22.celebrity chefs. Thanks to our guests,
:58:23. > :58:25.especially our guest of the day The one o'clock news is starting
:58:26. > :58:29.over on BBC One now. And I'll be on BBC One
:58:30. > :58:32.for an extended This Week on air until the Tooting by-election result
:58:33. > :58:35.is announced with Michael Portillo, Chuka Umunna, Sian Berry,
:58:36. > :58:38.Diane James, James Cleverly, pub landlord Al Murrary,
:58:39. > :58:41.and some newbie called ...