:00:37. > :00:42.The final live debate of the EU referendum campaign took place
:00:43. > :00:47.at Wembley Arena last night in front of thousands of people.
:00:48. > :00:52.We talk to Andrea Leadsom from Leave and Kezia Dugdale from Remain.
:00:53. > :00:55.Politicians are making their final pitch for votes in the last
:00:56. > :00:56.day of campaigning, emphasising their main arguments
:00:57. > :01:07.And we have a full guide explaining everything you need to know to get
:01:08. > :01:14.Going to bed at seven o'clock in the evening and maybe waking up
:01:15. > :01:37.You even get sleeping advice on this programme. I don't know what more we
:01:38. > :01:38.can do as a public service broadcaster.
:01:39. > :01:42.And with us for the whole of the programme today
:01:43. > :01:45.are the Leader of the Labour Party in Scotland, Kezia Dugdale,
:01:46. > :01:48.in the EU and the Energy Minister, Andrea Leadsom,
:01:49. > :01:53.Now just last night, Andrea was on the stage at Wembley Arena
:01:54. > :01:55.debating live in front of thousands of people.
:01:56. > :01:58.You must have quite some stamina to be on the Daily
:01:59. > :02:01.The BBC's Great Debate featured almost two hours of questions
:02:02. > :02:05.on immigration, the economy and sovereignty and Andrea was one
:02:06. > :02:14.Let's give you a flavour of what happened.
:02:15. > :02:17.They came not for a Bon Jovi concert or Spice Girls reunion
:02:18. > :02:20.but for the BBC's Great Debate, and they came from everywhere.
:02:21. > :02:30.4 million switched on at home and there were thousands in the arena.
:02:31. > :02:34.We've got a massive stage, which has got six lecterns on it.
:02:35. > :02:47.It perked up as the credits rolled and straightaway it was blue on blue
:02:48. > :02:51.as the Conservative panellists clashed on the economy.
:02:52. > :02:54.Small businesses are the backbone of our economy and I know that some
:02:55. > :02:57.people can find the EU a bit frustrating and fussy but what it
:02:58. > :03:00.does, it provides a level playing field so that you can't be
:03:01. > :03:04.undercut by other companies in other parts of the world.
:03:05. > :03:06.That's why eight out of ten of the CBI's small-business members
:03:07. > :03:12.Most economies can agree free trade deals within two years.
:03:13. > :03:17.The European Union is taking ten years or never at all.
:03:18. > :03:22.Because 28 member states cannot even organise a takeaway curry,
:03:23. > :03:27.let alone what they are going to do on free trade with the rest
:03:28. > :03:33.And it was mayor on ex-mayor over war and peace.
:03:34. > :03:37.It's not a choice between the EU and Nato or the EU and allies.
:03:38. > :03:39.We can still have a special relationship with the USA and be
:03:40. > :03:44.And tell me this, anyone of you, which one of our allies -
:03:45. > :03:45.USA, Canada, New Zealand, Australia...
:03:46. > :03:50.Which one of the Nato members is encouraging us to leave the EU?
:03:51. > :03:54.The European Union is not keeping up with the deal.
:03:55. > :03:57.It is creating unemployment in Greece, it is outsourcing
:03:58. > :04:05.It is undermining Nato by trying to duplicate the same structures.
:04:06. > :04:08.And there was a to-do about the number of immigrants
:04:09. > :04:12.And I think the Leave campaign are selling people a big con,
:04:13. > :04:20.You have never promised to reduce numbers.
:04:21. > :04:22.Has the Leave campaign ever promised to reduce numbers?
:04:23. > :04:27.What we said is you take back control and you can decide.
:04:28. > :04:36.On the second debate stage, there was definitely passion.
:04:37. > :04:40.I think it's a bit rich that the Remain side are so devoid
:04:41. > :04:44.of any arguments that they have to smear us as racists and bigots,
:04:45. > :04:50.I went to a business in my constituency last Friday
:04:51. > :04:53.and they are a small business, they are exporting to Romania.
:04:54. > :04:57.They have a contract to provide play equipment over there.
:04:58. > :05:00.That contract is entirely contingent - there is a clause in that contract
:05:01. > :05:03.that if we vote Out on Friday, they lose that contract.
:05:04. > :05:06.That is the case for hundreds of businesses across the country.
:05:07. > :05:08.As the clock counted down to the finale, Boris
:05:09. > :05:12.Johnson got the last word and a standing ovation.
:05:13. > :05:15.If we stand up for democracy, we will be speaking up for hundreds
:05:16. > :05:20.of millions of people around Europe who agree with us but who
:05:21. > :05:26.And if we vote Leave and take back control, I believe that this
:05:27. > :05:32.Thursday could be our country's Independence Day.
:05:33. > :05:37.In the spin room, Leavers reckoned
:05:38. > :05:39.they won on passion, Remainers felt they'd caught
:05:40. > :05:51.The Brexiter campaign was predicated on standing on top of a cliff.
:05:52. > :05:53.They don't know how deep, how steep the cliff is,
:05:54. > :05:56.how large the drop is going to be or how deep the water
:05:57. > :05:59.But they're going to jump all the same.
:06:00. > :06:02.I think it's ridiculous that they can get at the Leave
:06:03. > :06:05.campaign but they've got no solution themselves, either.
:06:06. > :06:17.Even I managed to draw a huge audience!
:06:18. > :06:29.Adam is there. A unique event. About 4 million people tuned into that
:06:30. > :06:34.debate last night. Andrea, what was it like making an argument in front
:06:35. > :06:39.of the 6000 people in the hall, let alone the others? There was a huge
:06:40. > :06:44.amount of noise. That clip did not pick it up. I watched it live full
:06:45. > :06:49.and you could sense there was a lot of noise but it did not stop us
:06:50. > :06:55.understanding you all up on the platform. I'm glad to hear that.
:06:56. > :06:59.With a very serious debate about whether we choose to control our own
:07:00. > :07:03.economy, our own democracy or outsource it to Europe. It is a
:07:04. > :07:12.fundamental one. We have 24 hours to go. Most of the pundits seem to
:07:13. > :07:16.think that Ruth Davidson, the leader of the Scottish Conservatives, was
:07:17. > :07:20.the standout performer. I was very pleased with our performance. I
:07:21. > :07:23.thought we made the case extremely well. Others were disappointed that
:07:24. > :07:28.Ruth challenged me personally, in fact called me a liar, on the
:07:29. > :07:32.subject of the number of rules and regulations that come out of the EU.
:07:33. > :07:38.The House of Commons records show that in 2013 it was 60% of rules and
:07:39. > :07:48.regulations, which is what I said. Not laws. No, I said rules. Were you
:07:49. > :07:56.surprised when she called you a liar? She is the same party as you?
:07:57. > :08:01.It is a blue on blue attack. Were you mistaken or got that wrong? None
:08:02. > :08:08.of that, it was, effectively, you were a liar. It is not what I would
:08:09. > :08:11.have done. I do not call people life of the people make mistakes from
:08:12. > :08:17.time to time. On this, you believe it was not that you were lying but
:08:18. > :08:23.you got the facts right on the number of statutory instruments and
:08:24. > :08:26.regulations relating to the EU. The biggest cheer of the night was for
:08:27. > :08:32.Boris Johnson at the very end. Were you surprised by that? Just a
:08:33. > :08:41.little. The standout performer was Ruth Davidson. Scotland played so
:08:42. > :08:48.well at Wembley. It has been a long time. It was a long time to tell
:08:49. > :08:52.some cold, hard truths to Boris Johnson. I hear what Andrea says
:08:53. > :08:56.that there was an implication to what you said about the number of
:08:57. > :09:00.laws coming from Europe. I know you said rules and regulations that you
:09:01. > :09:04.would like people at home to believe it is the bureaucrats in Brussels
:09:05. > :09:11.and not asked. In the past few years, just 13% of our actual laws
:09:12. > :09:17.even mention that. That is what your everyday voter thinks we mean by
:09:18. > :09:20.legislation. As city minister and now as Energy Minister, all day long
:09:21. > :09:25.I am told that you cannot do this, you cannot do that because of the
:09:26. > :09:29.EU. If you want to make this policy decision we have to go to the EU for
:09:30. > :09:33.state aid clearance which could take up to a year. In the meantime you
:09:34. > :09:38.cannot do anything. All day long I am being told the EU is influencing
:09:39. > :09:46.our ability to make decisions. Look at VAT on fuel bills. I want to talk
:09:47. > :09:52.about last night's bait. Remain put up Siddique Khan and the head of the
:09:53. > :09:59.TUC. Was that a conscious intent to try to galvanise the Labour vote is
:10:00. > :10:04.to map their worries the Labour vote might not come out in numbers to win
:10:05. > :10:08.this. It is very important to have a message which resonates particularly
:10:09. > :10:12.with Labour voters or indeed trade unionists, workers across the
:10:13. > :10:16.country. I find Frances O'Grady quite powerful at the moment. She
:10:17. > :10:21.was saying that when you say red tape, what you mean is workers'
:10:22. > :10:27.rights? That keeps people safe at work. That is incredibly important.
:10:28. > :10:32.She was also keen to bash the bankers and blame them for the crash
:10:33. > :10:39.of 2008. There is a strong case you could do that. The problem is most
:10:40. > :10:44.of the bankers back her side. Most of the Vote Leave campaign has said
:10:45. > :10:47.it is the fault of immigrants. The point I'm trying to make is the
:10:48. > :10:53.blame culture throughout the campaign, we have had lots of people
:10:54. > :10:56.saying it is a result of immigration. What we heard last
:10:57. > :11:03.night was the other side of that. The pressures on housing and schools
:11:04. > :11:09.was caused by the banks. During the debate last night, there was one
:11:10. > :11:13.intervention from the Remains side, from Alan Sugar. He tweeted and we
:11:14. > :11:28.can put it up on the screen. He tweeted...
:11:29. > :11:39.That is from Alan Sugar, a Remains supporter. What you think about
:11:40. > :11:44.that? It is disgusting and I do not want to be associated with these
:11:45. > :11:50.remarks. It is a bit of a surprise, isn't it? A surprise from Alan
:11:51. > :11:55.Sugar. People on both sides would call it out from what it is. Many
:11:56. > :11:59.have done just that. Alan Sugar is now part of the Government. He is
:12:00. > :12:06.the enterprise are for the Government. What do you say about
:12:07. > :12:11.that? Gisela Stuart is one of the most lovely women I have come
:12:12. > :12:16.across. Last night I two sons were therefore that they were looking
:12:17. > :12:32.after her. They are as English as they come. -- her two sons. What
:12:33. > :12:35.about the fact about the Enterprise capital letters are? Those remarks
:12:36. > :12:48.were disgusting and he should take them back. -- Tsar. Gisela has done
:12:49. > :12:56.this country a huge... I am asking whether Alan Sugar should remain
:12:57. > :12:59.Enterprise Tsar. My view is I would certainly be questioning it.
:13:00. > :13:03.Which piece of EU memorabilia history has
:13:04. > :13:08.A) The giant Euro coin, used at the launch
:13:09. > :13:11.B) Margaret Thatcher's Europe jumper worn in the 1975 referendum?
:13:12. > :13:15.C) The pen Douglas Hurd used to sign the Maastricht Treaty?
:13:16. > :13:20.Or D) The first prototype of the EU Flag.
:13:21. > :13:22.At the end of the show, Andrea and Kezia will give
:13:23. > :13:35.So, it is the last full day of campaigning today with politicians
:13:36. > :13:40.making a last-minute push to get their messages out. Experts are
:13:41. > :13:44.predicting it could be extremely close. David Cameron and Boris
:13:45. > :13:49.Johnson and other prominent Leave campaign is trying to drum up as
:13:50. > :13:51.much support as they can. It is not just politicians who are out there.
:13:52. > :13:54.Over a thousand business leaders, including 50 of the UK's FTSE 100,
:13:55. > :13:56.have written a letter in today's Times saying that leaving
:13:57. > :14:00.the European Union would damage the British economy.
:14:01. > :14:01.The signatories, including Virgin's Richard Branson
:14:02. > :14:04.and Sir Charles Dunstone of Carphone Warehouse,
:14:05. > :14:08.say Britain leaving the EU would lead to uncertainty, less
:14:09. > :14:16.However one of the UK's oldest firms, Tate Lyle Sugars,
:14:17. > :14:20.has written to its 800-strong staff saying that leaving the EU
:14:21. > :14:24.would benefit the business, while entrepreneur Sir James Dyson
:14:25. > :14:27.has described the vote as "the last opportunity to regain
:14:28. > :14:35.Meanwhile, an advisor to the Turkish President Recep
:14:36. > :14:39.Erdogan has told the BBC that Turkey feels betrayed by David Cameron,
:14:40. > :14:45.saying that the country feels "taken in" as the Prime Minister had been
:14:46. > :14:50.Turkey's "chief supporter" in its quest for EU membership.
:14:51. > :14:53.As Sadiq Khan last night became the latest member of the Remain
:14:54. > :14:56.campaign to accuse Leave of scaremongering with the "big fat
:14:57. > :15:02.lie" that Turkey would soon join the EU.
:15:03. > :15:04.Joining me now are our political correspondents,
:15:05. > :15:08.Tom is with David Cameron on the Stronger In campaign bus
:15:09. > :15:16.and Ben is with Boris Johnson in Leicestershire.
:15:17. > :15:24.To you first, Tom. What is the Prime Minister doing today? What is the
:15:25. > :15:29.mood with your camp? Welcome. You join us on the convoy. We have quite
:15:30. > :15:35.a few buses. The Stronger In us just ahead of us with the Prime Minister,
:15:36. > :15:39.with Sir John Major and Labour's Harriet Harman and this is a
:15:40. > :15:43.frenetic final push. We were just on a building site with the Prime
:15:44. > :15:46.Minister and we've been herded back onto this media bus and we are off
:15:47. > :15:49.to the next destination. I think the message the Prime Minister has been
:15:50. > :15:53.getting across today and will push even harder is about the economy.
:15:54. > :15:57.We've heard it throughout this campaign and it was no surprise that
:15:58. > :16:03.what he is spending the whole today doing is visiting small businesses.
:16:04. > :16:10.We've just been on a construction site. People are working at the new
:16:11. > :16:16.Honda plant down this road. They hammer that message to the voters.
:16:17. > :16:19.We've had good cop, bad cop. Sir John Major the unlikely sledgehammer
:16:20. > :16:22.during his speech earlier on. He was laying into his opponents in the
:16:23. > :16:26.Leave campaign, accusing them of being the grave-diggers of Britain's
:16:27. > :16:32.prosperity and saying that if there was a vote to leave today, they
:16:33. > :16:38.would have questions answered. Thanks for that. Let's go to bed
:16:39. > :16:44.now, who is with the Vote Leave with Boris Johnson. What are they up to
:16:45. > :16:48.today? Ashley della Zouch in Leicestershire is now quiet again
:16:49. > :16:53.after the Boris Johnson Circus bowled down the high street here. He
:16:54. > :16:58.was here for about half an hour, a pit stop on his tour of England. He
:16:59. > :17:03.began at Billingsgate market in London, then stopped in Essex, then
:17:04. > :17:07.here, and will end the day up in Yorkshire. His message is all about
:17:08. > :17:10.democracy, sovereignty, independence, and it's a message
:17:11. > :17:15.that has cut through to a lot of voters. As we were walking down here
:17:16. > :17:21.a couple of people shouted "Independence Day" at him. He does
:17:22. > :17:25.later the crowd and wing it, unlike many politicians would do and it is
:17:26. > :17:28.a campaign tactic that I think is quite different to the Remain
:17:29. > :17:33.campaign. They will just pitch up in a high street, get out of the bus
:17:34. > :17:37.all the cars and talk to people. This feels like quite a Leave
:17:38. > :17:41.Leeming plays. Their union flags everywhere and the voters I've been
:17:42. > :17:45.speaking to, the majority are convinced Britain needs to be out of
:17:46. > :17:49.the EU. But Boris Johnson was harangued, particularly by one young
:17:50. > :17:52.man who said that if there is an economic downturn, if the prospect
:17:53. > :17:57.of young people are harmed in the future, then Boris Johnson will get
:17:58. > :18:01.the blame. On the whole, though, his reception here was a supporter
:18:02. > :18:05.wanted top Ben, just briefly, and it is a matter of feeling and of
:18:06. > :18:08.instinct, really, with the Vote Leave people, do they feel that they
:18:09. > :18:15.are now struggling obituary game the momentum they had maybe a week ago?
:18:16. > :18:24.Do they feel they are coming from behind? -- to read gain the
:18:25. > :18:26.momentum. I think they feel this is winnable but undoubtedly the
:18:27. > :18:32.momentum that was felt at the beginning of last week was stopped
:18:33. > :18:37.and they are having to read it now. They think this could go either way,
:18:38. > :18:42.they feel it is exceptionally tight, that it is about turnout. My hunch
:18:43. > :18:46.having talked to people here is that there are still a lot of undecided
:18:47. > :18:49.voters. I've been speaking to people in shops, walking around the
:18:50. > :18:51.streets, who say they've been looking at these competing
:18:52. > :18:56.arguments, listening to them for weeks, confused by some of them, not
:18:57. > :19:00.sure which way to go, and it will be a hunch they have when they get into
:19:01. > :19:04.the polling booth tomorrow that will determine what box they take and I
:19:05. > :19:08.think it's that... There appears to be huge number of undecided voters,
:19:09. > :19:12.still, that make both campaigns realise this is very unpredictable,
:19:13. > :19:18.very tight, too close for either to call with any confidence. Thank you
:19:19. > :19:22.very much for that. Andrea Leadsom, there are clearly business people
:19:23. > :19:25.who are on your side of the argument and renamed some of them in our
:19:26. > :19:30.introduction but it is only fair to say that the majority of major
:19:31. > :19:35.businesses in this country are for a vote to remain, aren't they? Yes,
:19:36. > :19:40.they are and, of course, what we're talking about here is the senior
:19:41. > :19:46.chief executive officers of big businesses. And let's be clear that
:19:47. > :19:48.when Stuart Rose, who chairs the Stronger In campaign, appeared
:19:49. > :19:53.before the Treasury committee to make the case for remain in, he
:19:54. > :19:59.said, "The trouble with leaving is that it will mean a pay rise for
:20:00. > :20:02.British workers, wages will go up for British workers," and, of
:20:03. > :20:06.course, the point is that people who run big FTSE 100 countries do not
:20:07. > :20:10.have to face the struggle against wages going down and for a good
:20:11. > :20:14.school plays, for a doctor's appointment. They don't have the
:20:15. > :20:20.same challenges as the people in this campaign. But it is more than
:20:21. > :20:26.just the FTSE 100. Mainly the FTSE 100 have operations overseas anyway
:20:27. > :20:30.so they are not necessarily were presented over British business
:20:31. > :20:36.here. But 1285 business leaders, a lot more than the FTSE 100, they
:20:37. > :20:41.employ 1.75 million people, they are backing Remain. They are not all fat
:20:42. > :20:47.cats. Small and medium enterprises make up 99% of the businesses in the
:20:48. > :20:54.United Kingdom and there are many surveys that show that 75% of them
:20:55. > :20:57.believe that the UK should take back responsibility for negotiating free
:20:58. > :21:03.trade, something that the EU has been disastrously bad at, and a
:21:04. > :21:08.majority of small businesses on a broad scope, not on CBI numbers or
:21:09. > :21:11.Federation of Small Businesses numbers, but actually the small
:21:12. > :21:15.businesses of this country, they believe we will be better off or not
:21:16. > :21:20.worse off if we leave the European Union and they, the small and medium
:21:21. > :21:23.enterprises, employ 60 million people in this country, so they are
:21:24. > :21:26.the entrepreneurs, the wealth creators, the people creating jobs.
:21:27. > :21:30.It is not clear that the majority of them want to leave. I agree that
:21:31. > :21:34.there is a high percentage that want to stay but the British Chambers of
:21:35. > :21:38.Commerce, there is no sign there was a majority. The Remain team focused
:21:39. > :21:41.on the economy last night and one of the big arguments has been, what
:21:42. > :21:45.would our trading relationship be with Europe if we were to come out
:21:46. > :21:49.of the EU, on what terms and conditions? The Remain people have
:21:50. > :21:53.said they may not be added to just was, compared to what we have now,
:21:54. > :21:57.but we learned today that the head of the German CBI, the Federation of
:21:58. > :22:02.German industries, the equivalent of the CBI, has told the BBC that
:22:03. > :22:07.erecting any post Brexit trade barriers would be, quote, very, very
:22:08. > :22:11.foolish, and that what the German industry would want is a trade
:22:12. > :22:16.regime that allows current trade to continue as it is. That's a powerful
:22:17. > :22:19.lobby in Germany, as you will note it talk To continue as it is means
:22:20. > :22:22.that there is a set of conditions that comes with that, for example
:22:23. > :22:26.the free movement of people, which is what Andrea is trying to stop in
:22:27. > :22:31.many senses. The economic argument is absolutely unanswerable. It is
:22:32. > :22:35.compelling for why we should remain part of the EU, which is why the
:22:36. > :22:38.Leave campaign have spent the last week, and was then the next few
:22:39. > :22:42.hours, trying to get the debate back on issues of immigration. I want to
:22:43. > :22:50.stick with trade because this would suggest, and you will know the
:22:51. > :22:53.German industry Federation is much more powerful with the Christian
:22:54. > :22:57.Democrat government than the CBI is with this Tory government, and there
:22:58. > :23:00.you have the most powerful voice saying he would like trade, even if
:23:01. > :23:05.Britain leaves, to continue on broadly the same terms. So that
:23:06. > :23:09.would suggest that a lot of what your side has been saying may not
:23:10. > :23:13.actually be true, that there could be a big constituency in Germany
:23:14. > :23:18.that would like us, even if we come out, to continue trading on the same
:23:19. > :23:22.basis. That's a very powerful boys but it is yet again just one of the
:23:23. > :23:27.27 other nations of Europe that would have a view on this particular
:23:28. > :23:32.issue. -- very powerful voice. It is for the Leave campaign to prosecute
:23:33. > :23:35.the case here, much as it was the case for the camera crew yes
:23:36. > :23:38.campaign in the Scottish referendum to make the case for change and
:23:39. > :23:42.there is so much risk associated with what Andrea is arguing. Wrist
:23:43. > :23:48.jobs, the economy, to works' writes. It is just not worth it. Vote Leave
:23:49. > :23:55.is distributing leaflets that state on Turkey that it is, quote, "Set to
:23:56. > :23:59.join the EU". It is not set to join the EU, is it? Well, our
:24:00. > :24:05.government's policy is for Turkish accession. We in this country will
:24:06. > :24:09.be paying up to ?2 billion between now and 2020 to contribute to the
:24:10. > :24:13.preparations that those five accession countries to be able to
:24:14. > :24:16.accede to the EU. And the European Commission, just in recent weeks,
:24:17. > :24:21.has been saying they are going to speed up the access and
:24:22. > :24:26.preparations, so... But even so, it is not set to join tiptop so far it
:24:27. > :24:32.has passed one of the 35 hurdles it has to past. I understand that it
:24:33. > :24:35.is... And rouble come on to whether Mr Cameron has been entirely honest
:24:36. > :24:41.with us on this matter. I personally understand it is British policy that
:24:42. > :24:44.the Turkish or join but if I'm set to do something, I'm about to do it
:24:45. > :24:51.and we know that even with British support for joining, Turkey is not
:24:52. > :24:56.set to join. So what we know is that the European Union, the eurozone, is
:24:57. > :25:01.looking to do a transaction with Turkey that an ex--- in exchange for
:25:02. > :25:04.sending migrants back to Turkey, which I've no idea if that is even
:25:05. > :25:08.going to be legal, that Turkish citizens could get free movement in
:25:09. > :25:11.the Schengen area, which doesn't include the UK, but there are
:25:12. > :25:15.discussions through our diplomatic channels about giving special
:25:16. > :25:20.passport holders in Turkey, 1.5 million of them, free movement of
:25:21. > :25:31.the UK. Hold on, there has been a proposal, a suggestion, from the
:25:32. > :25:35.deputy head of nation in Ankara. Are you saying that person counts for
:25:36. > :25:39.nothing? No, I'm not, I'm saying that person, and it is a chic, does
:25:40. > :25:44.not determine British Government policy on this. It was an idea
:25:45. > :25:47.floated by a diplomat. Roll but can we be clear? This referendum is not
:25:48. > :25:50.for the couple of years, so what time frame would be reasonable? If
:25:51. > :25:58.this referendum is for a generation, which is what we understand it to
:25:59. > :26:01.be, it has been 43 years since we last had a referendum on this
:26:02. > :26:05.subject. Are you saying it is not going to happen in 43 years? I
:26:06. > :26:10.didn't say that to you. I put the proposition to you, it is not set to
:26:11. > :26:17.join. That terminology is very important because as you've just
:26:18. > :26:22.said, the first chapter is being dealt with. We British taxpayers...
:26:23. > :26:28.The chapters were opened in 1987! They've only made one of 35. The EU
:26:29. > :26:32.repeat commission is speeding up their accession plans. -- the
:26:33. > :26:36.European Commission. Isn't it interesting how when the EU gets in
:26:37. > :26:41.a problem, as it has with migration, anything can happen? If it suits the
:26:42. > :26:45.eurozone to deal with their migration crisis by allowing faster
:26:46. > :26:50.Turkish accession, that is what they will do. They've made that very
:26:51. > :26:55.clear. There's a problem. Leave may well be wrong that Turkey is quote
:26:56. > :27:01.set to join", in other words it could be imminent by 2020, even by
:27:02. > :27:04.2025, but there's a problem for the Remain people here and it's to do
:27:05. > :27:10.with trusting the political elite, because Mr Cameron has said one
:27:11. > :27:13.thing to the Turkish people - in 2010, he pledged to fight for their
:27:14. > :27:18.membership, he was going to be the bridge between Ankara and the EU.
:27:19. > :27:22.We've even heard from a Turkish diplomat on Newsnight last night,
:27:23. > :27:26."We thought Mr Cameron was our chief supporter in our quest for EU
:27:27. > :27:31.membership. We are really flabbergasted he is now talking
:27:32. > :27:35.about the year 3000". This goes to the heart of trusting the people who
:27:36. > :27:38.govern us, doesn't it? I think that is a fair point it I think there is
:27:39. > :27:42.a much more fundamental question here, which is how we as the
:27:43. > :27:51.political class talk immigration in the round. Stick to Turkey. Are
:27:52. > :27:54.that's exacting what I'm doing. They're up potentially 1.2 million
:27:55. > :27:57.people in Turkey on their way to our borders now, they say, and that is a
:27:58. > :28:01.tremendous thing for us all to consider and worry about but we need
:28:02. > :28:06.to take a step back and say, EU migrants coming back to the United
:28:07. > :28:09.Kingdom make a vibrant contribution. I want you to stick with Turkey.
:28:10. > :28:13.There has been a tendency throughout this campaign on both sides, you ask
:28:14. > :28:17.a question and you generalise it to graduate Morkel to blunt. Is at the
:28:18. > :28:22.Labour Party's position that Turkey should join the EU? We are of the
:28:23. > :28:27.opinion that the EU should be expanding. There are five accession
:28:28. > :28:32.countries. As you said, chapter one of 35... But are you in favour of
:28:33. > :28:35.Turkey joining the EU? I'm a passionate, proud pro-European
:28:36. > :28:41.person and I believe in unity across Europe. So you are in favour of
:28:42. > :28:45.Turkey joining the EU? I don't fear greater EU migration in the way that
:28:46. > :28:50.Andrea does. Why can't you discover simple yes or no? Do you support
:28:51. > :28:55.Turkey's membership of the EU? Right now no because I don't believe they
:28:56. > :28:59.would pass the human rights test. 35 chapters, many of the most difficult
:29:00. > :29:03.ones are yet to be resolved. I don't think anyone can feasibly save the
:29:04. > :29:08.case has been made at this time. You are a supporter? You would want to
:29:09. > :29:11.help? I am a supporter of the EU... I have one final question for you
:29:12. > :29:16.because you said that politicians should be honest about migration.
:29:17. > :29:19.When Jeremy Corbyn told the BBC on Sunday morning that you could have
:29:20. > :29:24.no upper limit on migration if you have free movement, which is what we
:29:25. > :29:30.have in the EU, that was honest, wasn't it? Yes. There could be no
:29:31. > :29:34.upper limit on migration? Yes, and we should be honest about the value
:29:35. > :29:41.of EU migration to our country. No upper limit? I just want to clarify,
:29:42. > :29:48.no upper limit. What Jeremy Corbyn said on Sunday I believe is right.
:29:49. > :29:51.So even if it was 500,000 net, 600,000 net, instead of the current
:29:52. > :29:54.300, there would be no upper limit? Leave there are conditions tied to
:29:55. > :30:00.that in terms of the benefits people are entitled to. The principle of
:30:01. > :30:04.it, as articulated by Jeremy Corbyn, I believe to be right it It is easy
:30:05. > :30:14.for you to say that because almost no migrants go to Scotland. 20% of
:30:15. > :30:18.those live in the city that I'm proud to represent it that's why I
:30:19. > :30:23.am able to say to you... It is easy for you to say because hardly any
:30:24. > :30:28.migrants go to Scotland. None of the 260,000 net that came to Britain in
:30:29. > :30:34.2014, how many went to Scotland? I don't have that figure. 8000 out of
:30:35. > :30:41.two or 60,000. Why do so migrants to Scotland?
:30:42. > :30:48.Why do most of them go? I would argue possibly London where there is
:30:49. > :30:56.a very positive attitude. I do not think it is about geography.
:30:57. > :30:58.Now, could the weather swing the vote tomorrow?
:30:59. > :31:01.Popular belief is that rain keeps voters away but what will conditions
:31:02. > :31:03.be like when polls are open between 7am and 10pm tomorrow?
:31:04. > :31:06.Will the sun be shining in Kezia Dugdale's Edinburgh
:31:07. > :31:07.or Andrea Leadsom's South Northamptonshire?
:31:08. > :31:09.With polls so close, here's the BBC's Stav Danaos
:31:10. > :31:14.with the all-important weather forecast.
:31:15. > :31:18.Much of the country will start off on a fine, dry, bright
:31:19. > :31:21.note on Thursday morning but the south-east corner will start
:31:22. > :31:23.off with thunderstorms and heavy showers, the risk of some local
:31:24. > :31:25.flooding from these through the morning period.
:31:26. > :31:27.But the good news is, they will move away.
:31:28. > :31:29.Things will dry up across the south-east.
:31:30. > :31:31.Actually quite a good-looking afternoon for many.
:31:32. > :31:33.Showers across the north-west corner, but a return to some
:31:34. > :31:35.showers and thunderstorms across the south-east corner as it
:31:36. > :31:37.becomes very warm and humid through the afternoon,
:31:38. > :31:39.with temperatures reaching 24, 25 Celsius.
:31:40. > :31:42.A bit more detail for southern parts of Northamptonshire,
:31:43. > :31:46.we'll see early showers clearing away, with some dry spells
:31:47. > :32:02.More showers, potentially some thunderstorms,
:32:03. > :32:04.could develop in towards the evening period.
:32:05. > :32:07.Further north, for much of Scotland it will be dry with some sunshine.
:32:08. > :32:09.Very pleasant conditions there in Edinburgh, with 19 or 20
:32:10. > :32:12.Celsius and some good spells of sunshine through the day.
:32:13. > :32:14.Maybe an evening shower will move in from the south-west.
:32:15. > :32:17.So to recap for Thursday, it's going to be quite a warm day
:32:18. > :32:19.generally, up and down the UK, temperatures
:32:20. > :32:22.The highest temperatures across the south-east,
:32:23. > :32:30.where we are likely to see more thunderstorms later on in the day.
:32:31. > :32:36.And for those eagle-eyed political anoraks among you,
:32:37. > :32:38.you'll realise that those were the constituency
:32:39. > :32:40.locations of prominent Remain and Leave campaigners,
:32:41. > :32:41.David Cameron, Jeremy Corbyn, George Osborne, Michael Gove
:32:42. > :32:46.Now, Professor John Curtice joins us now from the studio of tomorrow
:32:47. > :32:53.night's referendum programme at BBC Elstree.
:32:54. > :33:02.Does the weather make a difference to turn out? Very rarely. There have
:33:03. > :33:05.been occasions with past general elections where one part of the
:33:06. > :33:10.country has received the usual British rain and another part have
:33:11. > :33:14.had a glimmer of sunshine but no perceptible impact on the level of
:33:15. > :33:17.turnout. Unless the thunderstorms are actually disruptive and make it
:33:18. > :33:23.difficult for people to get to a polling station, it is unlikely to
:33:24. > :33:28.make much difference. When we spoke on this show last week, you said
:33:29. > :33:33.that Remained were no longer favourites to win. There was a
:33:34. > :33:46.serious possibility that the country would vote leave. Has Tsar grabbed
:33:47. > :33:52.back some of the ground? -- has Remain grabbed back some of the
:33:53. > :33:56.ground? It has grabbed back some of the ground but not all. What we may
:33:57. > :34:01.need to worry about now is so far there is not any clear evidence that
:34:02. > :34:05.the swing back to Remain because of the perceptions of risk that many
:34:06. > :34:09.people were assuming would begin to be evident in the polls conducted in
:34:10. > :34:14.the last week the campaign, so far at least that wingback is not in
:34:15. > :34:32.evidence. So, last week we had the internet polls having the Leeds side
:34:33. > :34:42.ahead. -- the Leave side ahead. The telephone poles last week it felt to
:34:43. > :34:46.50/ 50. Now it is 51/49 in favour of Remain. Not as much division as
:34:47. > :34:56.there was. If you split the difference between them, it is 50/
:34:57. > :35:00.50. What about the pollsters who are undecided? What is the significance
:35:01. > :35:06.or lack of significance about those who are undecided? That includes
:35:07. > :35:12.people who don't care. There will be a disproportionate number of people
:35:13. > :35:21.who will not bother to vote. Beyond that, it looks as though they are
:35:22. > :35:25.rather more likely to vote Remain. Maybe in the order of 3/ two. Quite
:35:26. > :35:29.a few of the opinion polls are factoring in these folk into their
:35:30. > :35:33.headline estimates. Some opinion polls, once the folk have been
:35:34. > :35:42.factored in, the numbers who do not know is minimal. One final thing. I
:35:43. > :35:46.have been asked a number of times, there will be no Exeter pole
:35:47. > :35:59.tomorrow night when the BBC goes live on air. -- exit poll. That was
:36:00. > :36:02.such a watershed moment in the general election last year, people
:36:03. > :36:12.will not forget that, particularly Paddy Ashdown for Dubya still has
:36:13. > :36:19.not eaten his hat. There will not be an exit poll. Why not? We must go
:36:20. > :36:24.wherever possible to the same polling stations we went to five
:36:25. > :36:27.years previously that we know from the previous exit poll how those
:36:28. > :36:32.places have voted. We now know how they have voted this year. The
:36:33. > :36:35.methodology of the exit poll is about trying to estimate the change
:36:36. > :36:39.in party support across the country on the base of that information. We
:36:40. > :36:47.go down that route because I might most countries who do not have
:36:48. > :36:53.precinct level characters. It is difficult to be sure if any polling
:36:54. > :36:59.stations are representative of the country. Now there is no last time.
:37:00. > :37:03.At least it was over 40 years ago and therefore irrelevant. We could
:37:04. > :37:07.not replicate the methodology which is we will look at the results this
:37:08. > :37:11.time and look what happened last time and use that information. There
:37:12. > :37:14.is only a this time of that that means you are dependent on getting
:37:15. > :37:20.the right sample of polling stations and we could not be confident in
:37:21. > :37:24.doing that. Thank you for explaining that. Good luck tomorrow night. I
:37:25. > :37:28.hope you will still be awake when I come on out on Friday morning. We
:37:29. > :37:46.should probably know all the results by then. Y.
:37:47. > :37:49.Here's our Ellie with a guide to everything you need to know.
:37:50. > :37:52.It's the moment we've all been waiting for.
:37:53. > :38:00.The results will be counted by local authority areas.
:38:01. > :38:04.There are 382 counting areas in total.
:38:05. > :38:08.Unlike a general election, there is no exit poll.
:38:09. > :38:09.That's because, put simply, it's virtually impossible
:38:10. > :38:15.The formal result isn't likely to be announced until 7am at the earliest
:38:16. > :38:18.but there are certain things to look out for overnight,
:38:19. > :38:21.and who better to ask about what to expect than the people
:38:22. > :38:27.who've been busy practising what to expect?
:38:28. > :38:29.Jeremy, hello, fancy seeing you here.
:38:30. > :38:31.Ellie, in our Virtual Downing Street, how about that?
:38:32. > :38:35.Can you walk me through what is going to happen on the night?
:38:36. > :38:38.Come to this end because the first results we think will be classically
:38:39. > :38:41.Sunderland, Newcastle, so we're going to start to see them
:38:42. > :38:44.coming in at the end he and we have blue for Leave and
:38:45. > :38:47.They will be building a path down Downing Street.
:38:48. > :38:50.2am we think Oxford, a very Remainy kind of a place,
:38:51. > :38:52.so we'll see whether they come in for Remain.
:38:53. > :38:54.And then by 3am, interestingly, the City of Durham,
:38:55. > :38:58.Interesting to see which way the wind is blowing there.
:38:59. > :39:00.And then the big cities, the big numbers, Birmingham,
:39:01. > :39:05.By 6am, Liverpool, we think, and then a result.
:39:06. > :39:08.There is a dotted line along the floor by Number Ten,
:39:09. > :39:10.which we'll put down there, which will be crossing the line.
:39:11. > :39:18.I'm going to leave you to it because it is blowing my mind!
:39:19. > :39:20.Luckily there are plenty of grapevines on this programme
:39:21. > :39:26.So, John, for those poor people who have to go to work on Friday,
:39:27. > :39:31.up early or should they just stay up late and then hope
:39:32. > :39:35.Well, I think probably the best advice is, if you're the kind
:39:36. > :39:38.of person who is capable of going to bed at seven or eight
:39:39. > :39:41.in the evening, go and do that, set your alarm for no later
:39:42. > :39:44.than about two o'clock and then, as a result, almost undoubtedly,
:39:45. > :39:48.you'll be there as the results begin to kick in.
:39:49. > :39:51.Now, it may be true that if the result is very close,
:39:52. > :39:55.you may still not find out the final result until shortly before you have
:39:56. > :39:58.to go to work but if, on the other hand, it's pretty clear
:39:59. > :40:01.who is going to win, probably by not long after three
:40:02. > :40:04.o'clock, you'll be able to go back to bed and get
:40:05. > :40:10.Besides, there's far too much calculating to be done.
:40:11. > :40:12.If you look at the electorate, look at the actual turnout that's
:40:13. > :40:16.reported, and you then see whether the numbers within that
:40:17. > :40:20.turnout have got to a point where one side has a lead
:40:21. > :40:28.that cannot be overtaken by the other, you understand?
:40:29. > :40:32.Mind you, if it was a dead heat, you'd be waiting
:40:33. > :40:39.I don't know what the odds are but of course it could happen.
:40:40. > :40:44.The results programme will be on until 9am.
:40:45. > :40:47.The only thing that is certain in this referendum -
:40:48. > :41:07.Kezia Dugdale, there are 32 accounting areas in Scotland. Mark
:41:08. > :41:10.our hard for us. What area should we look for in Scotland when results
:41:11. > :41:17.come which will be a good result for you, which would suggest you will
:41:18. > :41:22.win? Everyone assumes Edinburgh will be very strongly Remain. Bookies
:41:23. > :41:26.have stopped taking books. They think that the city will have the
:41:27. > :41:29.largest Remain in the United Kingdom. More interesting,
:41:30. > :41:39.Aberdeenshire. There is larger farming. And fishing. They have been
:41:40. > :41:44.quite hostile. The Scottish Fishing Federation has been quite neutral.
:41:45. > :41:49.They do not like the regulation but they like the free trade. On the
:41:50. > :41:52.Scottish referendum, I think the borders were the first area to
:41:53. > :41:57.declare. We always knew they would vote for the union but they did so
:41:58. > :42:00.in such huge numbers that we began to think, maybe something is
:42:01. > :42:06.happening here tonight. What would you be looking for that would guide
:42:07. > :42:13.you? I am not an expert in this area at all. I generally think this is
:42:14. > :42:19.close. People who want us to leave the EU and take back control have a
:42:20. > :42:25.greater passion for it. Do you think they're more likely to turn out?
:42:26. > :42:30.That will be my hope. South Northamptonshire visual
:42:31. > :42:34.constituency. There are 382 accounting authorities altogether
:42:35. > :42:38.across the United Kingdom. They have been listed on how likely they are
:42:39. > :42:45.to vote to leave or remain. Where is South Northamptonshire? It used to
:42:46. > :42:48.be about 50/50 early on. My experience of public debates and so
:42:49. > :42:57.one has been overwhelmingly voting to leave. Your experience would seem
:42:58. > :43:02.to be right. John has put your area is 134th most likely to leave which
:43:03. > :43:10.means you are in the top 50% to leave. The answer to Lothian is
:43:11. > :43:22.pretty easy, isn't it? I would hope is a strong Remain. It is coming in
:43:23. > :43:26.at 322 out of 382, the top 15% or so are people who will vote to remain
:43:27. > :43:32.in. I will be in Glasgow on the night. An area where there are so
:43:33. > :43:36.many migrants is voting to remain. We were talking about statistics.
:43:37. > :43:45.20% of EU migrants in Scotland live in the Edinburgh area. That includes
:43:46. > :43:51.students, of which there are a lot. Where will you be on the night? I
:43:52. > :43:53.will be in South Northamptonshire with a megaphone tomorrow and then
:43:54. > :44:08.coming back to London tomorrow night. And a soapbox.
:44:09. > :44:11.Soon all the discussion and debate will be over and we'll know
:44:12. > :44:15.It seems as if we've been talking about it forever but the official
:44:16. > :44:17.campaign only started just over two months ago.
:44:18. > :44:20.Can you remember what happened in those two months though -
:44:21. > :44:22.here's our look at the highs and lows of the campaign.
:44:23. > :44:25.Three years ago, I committed to the British people that
:44:26. > :44:27.I would renegotiate our position in the European Union and hold
:44:28. > :44:32.I'm calling on behalf of the Vote Leave campaign.
:44:33. > :44:38.The European Union, many warts and all, has proved itself to be
:44:39. > :44:40.This is this morning's Sun headline -
:44:41. > :44:49.I think it is wrong that money that should be spent on priorities
:44:50. > :44:54.like the NHS is being spent on euro propaganda.
:44:55. > :44:56.A vote to leave the European Union could have material
:44:57. > :45:01.The shock to our economy after leaving Europe would tip
:45:02. > :45:06.When I heard that, I did think of Pinocchio and the nose
:45:07. > :45:11.Our focus is in negotiating with a big bloc of the European Union
:45:12. > :45:14.to get a trade agreement done and the UK is going to be
:45:15. > :45:22.Well, we can listen to the President of America if we choose to.
:45:23. > :45:25.The last time we did, it was George W Bush telling us
:45:26. > :45:31.You cannot sell bananas in bunches of more than two or three bananas.
:45:32. > :45:34.I think the strain of the campaign is beginning to tell on him.
:45:35. > :45:43.The serried rows of white headstones in lovingly tended war cemeteries
:45:44. > :45:48.stand silent testimony to the price that this country has paid to help
:45:49. > :45:55.Migration Watch forecasts net migration will exceed 250,000
:45:56. > :46:02.I think their campaign is verging on the squalid.
:46:03. > :46:06.I am staggered that Boris Johnson is standing here tonight,
:46:07. > :46:10.still defending this ?350 million a week...
:46:11. > :46:22.The European Union just isn't working any more.
:46:23. > :46:25.There's a long way to go but we're in with a shout.
:46:26. > :46:27.Campaigning for the referendum has been suspended and there's been
:46:28. > :46:33.a vigil for Jo Cox at Westminster tonight.
:46:34. > :46:41.And you can't win, you can't fight, if you're not in the room.
:46:42. > :46:45.This Thursday can be our country's Independence Day.
:46:46. > :46:48.Your campaign hasn't been Project Fear, it's been Project Hate
:46:49. > :46:54.There's nothing patriotic about putting people's jobs at risk.
:46:55. > :47:10.From the SSE Arena Wembley, good night from all of us.
:47:11. > :47:15.So there we go, that might bring back some memories of this
:47:16. > :47:18.referendum campaign. When this campaign started there were many
:47:19. > :47:23.people who said, "I'm not that interested, turnout will be low, why
:47:24. > :47:28.are we bothering to have it? It's essentially blue on blue arguments,
:47:29. > :47:36.the Tories are divided on this, so let's have a referendum, the way
:47:37. > :47:39.Labour was divided in 75 and had a referendum". It's actually turned
:47:40. > :47:43.out to be a robust campaign. Yes, and it has become more lively in the
:47:44. > :47:47.closing days, without question. It definitely hasn't had that same
:47:48. > :47:50.atmosphere that the referendum campaign did Buddha think we'll see
:47:51. > :47:55.the same novels of turnout tomorrow. I think that will be quite
:47:56. > :47:59.interesting but there are parallels between the two referendums with
:48:00. > :48:02.interventions from the IMF to Obama to David Beckham. You can almost
:48:03. > :48:05.predict what's going to happen. There have been similarities but the
:48:06. > :48:10.turnout in the Scottish referendum was unique. 85%, yes, and a very
:48:11. > :48:15.compelling result as a consequence of that. You felt really that the
:48:16. > :48:17.people had spoken. I hope we do get a strong turnout tomorrow because I
:48:18. > :48:22.don't want to go through this again, I don't think many people do. We've
:48:23. > :48:25.got but this issue to bed and get back normal politics. When it
:48:26. > :48:29.started, the turnout in the last general election was 60s and the
:48:30. > :48:32.scent and I wondered whether the turnout tomorrow would be in the
:48:33. > :48:35.early 60s but after this campaign, it may be higher. It may be more
:48:36. > :48:41.than the turnout in the general election. This is an issue about who
:48:42. > :48:44.governs you. It is absolutely profound. It has much more of an
:48:45. > :48:50.impact on our children and grandchildren's future than the
:48:51. > :48:52.general election. This is a generation and remaining is an
:48:53. > :48:57.incredibly risky option so people do need to weigh this up and see what
:48:58. > :49:02.works for them. You still get these little bit in! I ask for a little
:49:03. > :49:08.bit of analysis but you get the push of their site. -- side.
:49:09. > :49:10.We're joined now from College Green by the political editor
:49:11. > :49:12.of the Guardian, Anushka Asthana, and James Kirkup
:49:13. > :49:19.Anushka Asthana, give me your impressions. What is your main
:49:20. > :49:23.takeaway from it? That it got a lot messier than anyone expected it to
:49:24. > :49:27.become. I don't think when David Cameron signed up for this he
:49:28. > :49:31.expected it to be quite as it was. There were some panicked moments,
:49:32. > :49:35.particularly last week, for the Stronger In camp and for Downing
:49:36. > :49:38.Street. I think they thought first of all, might they lose it? And
:49:39. > :49:42.secondly, did he really expect to be on the opposite side to Michael Gove
:49:43. > :49:46.and Boris Johnson in such a vocal way? I have to say, we saw the Prime
:49:47. > :49:49.Minister yesterday and I felt there was more confidence in the room.
:49:50. > :49:55.They clearly think that it is swinging their way. James, what a
:49:56. > :49:58.Mishra says is right, isn't it, that when David Cameron started in this
:49:59. > :50:03.process, he never thought on the eve of the campaign, it would be too
:50:04. > :50:07.close to call,, that he didn't have a decent lead. You never thought
:50:08. > :50:10.he'd be fighting it without Boris Johnson and Michael Gove. This has
:50:11. > :50:19.been a much tougher ex-political exercise for him and he ever
:50:20. > :50:24.thought. That's absolutely true. Even when it became clear that there
:50:25. > :50:27.were an awful lot more Conservatives on the other side than he realised,
:50:28. > :50:33.I think some of the reactions on both sides have surprised everybody
:50:34. > :50:38.in the party. The outstanding moment for me so far was the Tory backbench
:50:39. > :50:47.response to George Osborne's exit budget last week. To have 60 plus
:50:48. > :50:54.Tory MPs publicly - this is the thing, publicly - saying, "We will
:50:55. > :50:57.not let you do this, George". We all knew long before that a lot of
:50:58. > :51:02.Tories don't like George Osborne and are quite unfriendly towards him but
:51:03. > :51:07.to do that publicly is... It crosses a very big line. I don't think
:51:08. > :51:12.anybody, even the most as a mystic Tory, expected to get to their in
:51:13. > :51:16.this campaign. Anushka, if we vote to leave, clearly it is a sea
:51:17. > :51:19.change, a watershed in British politics, British political life.
:51:20. > :51:23.But would I be right in thinking that even if we vote to remain and
:51:24. > :51:27.we vote to remain by perhaps just a little bit that, actually, there's a
:51:28. > :51:33.new story starts on Friday morning that this isn't over yet? I think
:51:34. > :51:37.that David Cameron and George Osborne, as James was saying, have
:51:38. > :51:40.tied themselves very, very closely to this remain campaign and they
:51:41. > :51:44.have gone in very hard. That punishment budget that he was
:51:45. > :51:49.talking about has infuriated backbenchers. Other things, too, the
:51:50. > :51:53.?9 million on the leaflet, one MP telling me he was incandescent about
:51:54. > :51:57.that. In some ways, the most dangerous outcome for David Cameron
:51:58. > :52:00.on a personal level could be a very narrow Remain victory because
:52:01. > :52:04.there's going to be a lot of people who are very, very upset about his
:52:05. > :52:08.tactics. The question will be, can enough of them come forward to try
:52:09. > :52:12.to actually destabilise his leadership? I think it will be very
:52:13. > :52:16.difficult for him to pull the party together. That said, some people say
:52:17. > :52:20.the Conservatives come together very quickly when they need to, which I
:52:21. > :52:24.think normal people probably find quite difficult because politicians
:52:25. > :52:27.seem to be able to do this. If I'd had a massive row with my friend for
:52:28. > :52:33.the past couple of weeks, I think I'd be a bit grumpy about it. I know
:52:34. > :52:36.the feeling, I'm exactly the same! Finally to you, James, a proposition
:52:37. > :52:39.to you for a quick reaction. Regardless of what the Prime
:52:40. > :52:43.Minister is saying at the moment, if it is vote to leave, the primaries
:52:44. > :52:50.and the Chancellor will be certainly gone by the summer. It -- if it is
:52:51. > :52:53.vote to remain by the small amount, they don't go straightaway but they
:52:54. > :52:57.are both still the walking wounded, are they not? He said before the
:52:58. > :53:00.election last year that he wasn't going to serve beyond the end of
:53:01. > :53:06.this Parliament and that means he cannot go on. The chances are he'll
:53:07. > :53:10.be gone by 2018 regardless of how this works out. I think it's quite
:53:11. > :53:13.likely, as Anushka said, if we get that narrow vote it is perfectly
:53:14. > :53:16.possible, given the strength of feeling in the party, given the
:53:17. > :53:22.number of Tories who Frankie will not be happy with a remain Bob wrote
:53:23. > :53:27.because they will feel the campaign was conducted unfairly and almost
:53:28. > :53:31.illegitimately, I think that will stoke up potentially such anger in
:53:32. > :53:36.the Tory party that if by the end of this year, even, you see David
:53:37. > :53:40.Cameron making a statement saying, "I'm now beginning the process of my
:53:41. > :53:44.retirement," it will not be a great surprise. We may well see some
:53:45. > :53:49.statement on the beginning of the end before the year is out. We shall
:53:50. > :53:50.see to it will for now. Now. Hope to see you both on the morning after
:53:51. > :54:01.the night before. So how does getting the vote out
:54:02. > :54:04.differ from the more usual general Well, referenda are a more common
:54:05. > :54:16.affair in the United States - a lot of states have bladder sites
:54:17. > :54:20.and they determine all sorts of things.
:54:21. > :54:22.We are joined now by the American referendum
:54:23. > :54:31.Powers are different? Because in an election, you got the party machines
:54:32. > :54:34.that get the vote out? How does that work in a referendum? Well, first of
:54:35. > :54:37.all thank you for having me back on your show. The first thing to talk
:54:38. > :54:42.about is, what is the strategy to get out the vote in the next 24
:54:43. > :54:47.hours before the election, and the strategy right now in the referendum
:54:48. > :54:54.campaign has to be, how are we going to get our supporters out to vote?
:54:55. > :54:59.And the time for persuasion is over. It's now a logistical matter? It is
:55:00. > :55:04.over. People are starting to make their mind up with every minute that
:55:05. > :55:10.goes by as we get closer and closer. How do you get the vote out? There's
:55:11. > :55:14.a couple of things. Understanding what the strategy is, first of all,
:55:15. > :55:18.and then the next part is that one of the ways of getting the blood of
:55:19. > :55:21.out, there are a number of areas that I'm sure that the Remain site
:55:22. > :55:25.and the Leave side are spending a lot of their human resources and
:55:26. > :55:30.money on. One has to be canvassing. You've got to get groups of people
:55:31. > :55:43.together, volunteers, and literally go out and talk to your supporters
:55:44. > :55:46.with a very soft sell. It has to be, here is the address of your polling
:55:47. > :55:50.station - please go out and vote tomorrow. And maybe one message
:55:51. > :55:53.about what you are trying to to give it on your position. You are not
:55:54. > :55:58.going to meet tens of millions of people with that so again, I
:55:59. > :56:02.suspect, and no, actually, that both the Remain and the Leave have their
:56:03. > :56:06.phone banks cranking. They should absolutely be calling everybody that
:56:07. > :56:12.is on their IDE list as already being supporters. To galvanise them
:56:13. > :56:16.to come out? At this point, forget about the people who are headed on
:56:17. > :56:19.the other direction or are even on the persuasion listed top your job
:56:20. > :56:23.is one thing, get them out through canvassing and through phones. And
:56:24. > :56:29.the final pieces, the technology that is out there is absolutely
:56:30. > :56:35.wonderful. With the list that people have, Leave.EU and Vote Leave Bob,
:56:36. > :56:39.and the Remain site, I suggest they have got hundreds of thousands of
:56:40. > :56:44.people on their database, e-mailing, text in, social media. All of this
:56:45. > :56:50.digital stuff should be driving people up and you have to make it
:56:51. > :56:57.easy. If you take all that, can you tell us, do we know yet whether vote
:56:58. > :57:01.leave or Remain have the better getting out the vote infrastructure?
:57:02. > :57:05.One of the things that I've seen is, I look at how many people they have
:57:06. > :57:10.on the database and things like that and if you look at Vote Leave and
:57:11. > :57:17.Leave.EU, that's 750,000 people in that database. More than Remain?
:57:18. > :57:20.That's a lot. I believe it is more than Remain have in their database.
:57:21. > :57:23.As long as they're able to understand not to your time and your
:57:24. > :57:30.money on people that aren't worth it... The last pieces visibility.
:57:31. > :57:31.You've got to have signed. It's a psychological impact it Very well.
:57:32. > :57:37.Thank you. There's just time before we go
:57:38. > :57:40.to find out the answer to our quiz. Which piece of EU
:57:41. > :57:42.memorabilia history A) The giant Euro coin,
:57:43. > :57:47.used at the launch B) Margaret Thatcher's Europe jumper
:57:48. > :57:50.worn in the 1975 referendum? C) The pen Douglas Hurd used to sign
:57:51. > :57:53.the Maastricht Treaty? Or D) The first prototype
:57:54. > :57:58.of the EU Flag? What was it? I suspect it might be
:57:59. > :58:02.that jumper. I'm going to have to say the jumper. It is that jumper
:58:03. > :58:08.and look what I have here. I have the jumper! Would you like to wear
:58:09. > :58:14.one? It's glorious! I think it might suit you both. Here you go. Wood
:58:15. > :58:20.July to put it on? It's going to clash badly but it's got nice Vote
:58:21. > :58:25.Leave colours. Of course that was for Remain in its day. I guess it
:58:26. > :58:33.could be any side now. It hasn't got all the flags. We can do the back.
:58:34. > :58:38.The Daily Politics isn't on for the rest of the week but I'll
:58:39. > :58:41.be covering the referendum results in a special BBC programme
:58:42. > :58:43.on Friday, and there'll be a two-hour Sunday Politics
:58:44. > :58:46.special this weekend, starting at the earlier
:58:47. > :59:09.Catch all the action from Euro 2016 across the BBC.
:59:10. > :59:14.Radio 5 Live or the BBC Sport website.
:59:15. > :59:18.You can also follow all the news and action from the Euros,