:00:35. > :00:36.Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics.
:00:37. > :00:39.Theresa May holds her first Cabinet meeting as Prime Minister and says
:00:40. > :00:46.want social justice to be the primary focus of her leadership.
:00:47. > :00:48.After MPs handed Theresa May an overwhelming victory last night
:00:49. > :00:51.over Trident renewal, the Prime Minister's been
:00:52. > :00:54.meeting her top team for the first Cabinet meeting since she took
:00:55. > :01:01.Jeremy Corbyn was on the losing side of the argument in yesterday's
:01:02. > :01:04.debate and Labour MPs lined up to criticise his stance on Trident.
:01:05. > :01:09.However, a new poll shows his support is as strong as ever,
:01:10. > :01:13.so are his leadership challengers doomed to fail?
:01:14. > :01:18.Remainers said it would damage our long-term prospects.
:01:19. > :01:20.Leavers said it would provide a boost to our fortunes.
:01:21. > :01:23.We examine the impact that Brexit will have on the health
:01:24. > :01:34.And Donald Trump has his moment in the sun
:01:35. > :01:36.as he hosts the Republican convention in Cleveland.
:01:37. > :01:45.But can he reach out beyond his core supporters?
:01:46. > :01:50.With us for the whole of the programme today is the former
:01:51. > :01:54.Chancellor of the Exchequer Ken Clarke.
:01:55. > :01:57.He recently said that Theresa May was a "bloody difficult woman"
:01:58. > :01:59.and that Michael Gove would start three wars at once.
:02:00. > :02:02.We would like to encourage that level of candour throughout
:02:03. > :02:08.The House of Commons has overwhelmingly backed
:02:09. > :02:11.the renewal of the UK's Trident nuclear weapons system.
:02:12. > :02:13.The vote approves the manufacture of four replacement submarines
:02:14. > :02:19.at a current estimated cost of ?31 billion.
:02:20. > :02:22.The vote came after Theresa May, in her first Commons speech
:02:23. > :02:25.as Prime Minister, confirmed she would be prepared to authorise
:02:26. > :02:30.The vote also highlighted deep splits within the Labour Party
:02:31. > :02:33.with more than half of its MPs going against the leader
:02:34. > :02:44.Mr Speaker, we have waited long enough.
:02:45. > :02:51.It is time to get on with building the next generation
:02:52. > :02:54.It is time to take this essential decision to deter the most extreme
:02:55. > :02:57.threats to our society, and preserve our way of life
:02:58. > :03:01.Our nuclear weapons are driving proliferation, not the opposite.
:03:02. > :03:05.Sadly she, and some members of the Labour Party, seem
:03:06. > :03:08.to be the first to defend the country's enemies,
:03:09. > :03:12.and the last to actually accept the capabilities...
:03:13. > :03:17.Is she personally prepared to authorise a nuclear
:03:18. > :03:18.strike that could kill 100,000 innocent men,
:03:19. > :03:26.And I have to say to the honourable gentleman, the whole point
:03:27. > :03:29.of a deterrent is that our enemies need to know that we would be
:03:30. > :03:34.We on these benches, despite our differences on some
:03:35. > :03:36.issues, have always argued for the aim of
:03:37. > :03:42.We might differ on how it's going to be achieved,
:03:43. > :03:45.but we are united in our commitment to that end.
:03:46. > :03:49.I do not believe the threat of mass murder is a legitimate
:03:50. > :03:52.way to go about dealing with international relations.
:03:53. > :03:57.For the official opposition to have a free vote on a matter
:03:58. > :04:01.of such strategic national importance is a terrible indictment
:04:02. > :04:07.of how far this once great party has fallen.
:04:08. > :04:10.But what Labour's current front bench are doing is not principled.
:04:11. > :04:15.It shows contempt for the public, for party members, and often,
:04:16. > :04:21.The possession of the nuclear deterrent may be unpleasant,
:04:22. > :04:27.but it's an unpleasant necessity, the purpose of which lies not in it
:04:28. > :04:31.ever being fired, but in its nature as the ultimate insurance policy
:04:32. > :04:36.against unpredictable future existential threats.
:04:37. > :04:39.It is obscene that the priority of this government and sadly too
:04:40. > :04:43.many people on the Labour benches, at a time of Tory austerity
:04:44. > :04:49.and economic uncertainty following the EU referendum,
:04:50. > :04:51.is to spend billions of pounds on outdated nuclear weapons
:04:52. > :05:01.but we do not want, do not need and could never use.
:05:02. > :05:04.Well to discuss the vote we've been joined by the former
:05:05. > :05:07.Shadow Foreign Secretary Hilary Benn.
:05:08. > :05:17.Welcome. Before I come to you, it was a trick, there was no need for a
:05:18. > :05:23.vote at this time, it was only really done to expose divisions in
:05:24. > :05:27.Hilary Benn's party? I do not know why David originally chose this
:05:28. > :05:31.timing but there is no need for anybody to expose divisions in the
:05:32. > :05:36.Labour Party now, they are there for all to see and do the interests of
:05:37. > :05:42.clarity, it has probably helped the Labour Party to get over this. It
:05:43. > :05:47.was an obstacle in their path. They knew they would have a painful day
:05:48. > :05:49.and at least we know where the nation's defences are likely to be
:05:50. > :05:56.for the next years, even though we do not have much idea what else will
:05:57. > :06:03.happen to the country in the outside world. Labour Party led by Jeremy
:06:04. > :06:07.Corbyn who has always been and continues to be against Trident and
:06:08. > :06:12.its renewal. The fact he cannot carry the party with him, and there
:06:13. > :06:18.was a free vote on what one colleague called key strategic
:06:19. > :06:23.issue. That was in the end a pragmatic decision the Shadow
:06:24. > :06:26.Cabinet took. Jeremy's position is well-known, he has always been
:06:27. > :06:30.opposed to the use of nuclear weapons and I respect his view, I
:06:31. > :06:35.fundamentally disagree with it and more to the point, Labour Party
:06:36. > :06:38.policy for a long time has been to support the maintenance of the
:06:39. > :06:42.nuclear deterrent and we were elected on that commitment and the
:06:43. > :06:47.majority of Labour MPs who cast a vote voted to protect the nation's
:06:48. > :06:50.security and support the building of the new submarines. What does it say
:06:51. > :06:56.about the state of the Labour Party? There was a free vote and the leader
:06:57. > :07:01.is against the policy the party is for, it is chaos. It is not
:07:02. > :07:06.sustainable. I will be the first to accept that. We need new leadership
:07:07. > :07:11.and we will have a leadership contest because we cannot carry on
:07:12. > :07:14.with the situation in which the leader of the party and also the
:07:15. > :07:18.leader of the Parliamentary party cannot command the confidence of a
:07:19. > :07:23.majority of his members of Parliament. Jeremy, he has a mandate
:07:24. > :07:36.I am reminded, but it includes to lead the party in parliament which
:07:37. > :07:39.he is pay not able to do any more and that is why at this late stage,
:07:40. > :07:42.the right thing would be for him to step down. We will have a contest
:07:43. > :07:44.and hopefully we will come back at the end of September with a new
:07:45. > :07:47.leader. What was the point of a policy review, Labour Party policy
:07:48. > :07:50.on Trident. It was agreed at the manifesto it would be in favour of
:07:51. > :07:57.renewal, when no one will change their mind on such a key issue?
:07:58. > :08:02.Jeremy Corbyn voting against the renewal. The policy review has not
:08:03. > :08:05.been completed, it has been delayed. It has been delayed and I don't know
:08:06. > :08:12.what is in it because it has not been published. The long-standing
:08:13. > :08:16.policy of the Labour Party since we abandoned unilateralism in the 80s
:08:17. > :08:22.has been to support the nuclear deterrent and it is supported by the
:08:23. > :08:26.major unions, because their members helped to build the submarines and
:08:27. > :08:30.it is important we maintain that capacity to protect ourselves. Where
:08:31. > :08:34.we agree, and I think Ken Clarke would agree, we want a world with no
:08:35. > :08:41.nuclear weapons but the debate is how you get there and Britain giving
:08:42. > :08:45.its deterrent up with not persuade other nuclear states in the world to
:08:46. > :08:50.do so. There are new threats. Nobody knows what they will be in the years
:08:51. > :08:53.ahead and I would not feel safe in a world where everyone had given up
:08:54. > :08:59.nuclear weapons apart from North Korea. Jeremy Corbyn has support, in
:09:00. > :09:04.his view, against renewing Trident from a large number of Labour
:09:05. > :09:10.supporters and one reason is cited is the costs, which is fast. 31
:09:11. > :09:15.billion is the government figure that does not include according to
:09:16. > :09:19.Caroline Lucas for the Green Party, the costs of maintaining submarines,
:09:20. > :09:24.something like ?200 billion. It is not something that can be just
:09:25. > :09:28.batted away. You have to face up to it is a considerable cost. Jeremy
:09:29. > :09:32.Peace against nuclear weapons being held by this country in principle.
:09:33. > :09:38.He came into Parliament during the brief time the Labour Party was
:09:39. > :09:41.unilateralists. Every government from Clement Attlee on Buzz has
:09:42. > :09:47.favoured the policy we voted for yesterday. -- on the policy. It is a
:09:48. > :09:54.dangerous world and not getting safer. By the time we get the new
:09:55. > :09:58.submarines, nobody knows how far nuclear weapons may have
:09:59. > :10:03.proliferated over the next 30 years. It is a large sum of money and the
:10:04. > :10:07.overwhelming majority of people in the House of Commons and I think the
:10:08. > :10:12.public accept it is a cost we have to undertake in order to maintain
:10:13. > :10:16.security. What about the commitment to multilateral disarmament? Your
:10:17. > :10:20.colleagues said on the face of this legislation that was not there and
:10:21. > :10:25.without that there would be no attempt at trying to work towards
:10:26. > :10:30.multilateral disarmament? Is that still important? It is important and
:10:31. > :10:33.we have seen the benefit of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and
:10:34. > :10:39.how it was used by the world to get Iran to give up nuclear ambition.
:10:40. > :10:42.That agreement is important. During the last Labour government we
:10:43. > :10:46.reduced the number of warheads, a contribution be made. You would need
:10:47. > :10:52.local powers to do that. In particular it is those who are not
:10:53. > :10:58.signatories that the problem and I highlight North Korea because I do
:10:59. > :11:04.not think they are to negotiation. The costs, those who raised costs
:11:05. > :11:09.are opposed to a nuclear deterrent in principle. If you go back to
:11:10. > :11:13.Clement Attlee's speeches in the 1940s, he said, I know the defence
:11:14. > :11:18.of the nation is a cost and it is an expense but it is one we should bear
:11:19. > :11:21.because it is important, given the experience particularly the country
:11:22. > :11:28.had just come out of, that we make sure we are defended. We know it's
:11:29. > :11:32.destructive potential. It is to protect Britain from being the
:11:33. > :11:35.subject of an attack. That is the reason we have it and it protects us
:11:36. > :11:40.every day with those submarines patrolling around the world. Let's
:11:41. > :11:45.talk more about Jeremy Corbyn's leadership. The BBC understands he
:11:46. > :11:50.is likely to face a single challenger. The two current
:11:51. > :11:51.challengers, Angela Eagle and Owen Smith have apparently reached a
:11:52. > :11:52.common understanding However, a new poll in today's Times
:11:53. > :11:59.shows that support for Mr Corbyn Our political correspondent
:12:00. > :12:02.Iain Watson is outside Labour headquarters, where the party's
:12:03. > :12:04.National Executive Committee is meeting to discuss Labour's
:12:05. > :12:18.leadership election rules. Have please finally been decided?
:12:19. > :12:21.Yes I think they have. The NEC meeting is taking place in this
:12:22. > :12:29.building and some are rushing in. It has just got under way. A week is a
:12:30. > :12:33.long time in politics. Last week, Jeremy Corbyn was trying to fight
:12:34. > :12:38.for the right to be automatically on the ballot and as soon as he won the
:12:39. > :12:44.fight he came out here to talk to the media and celebrate and to go to
:12:45. > :12:48.a supporters' rally but inside two crucial decisions were made, first
:12:49. > :12:56.to increase the fee registered supporters would have to pay from ?3
:12:57. > :13:00.up to ?25. Many of them voted for Jeremy Corbyn last year, 100,000 of
:13:01. > :13:04.them, and ?25 would make it more difficult to do so and this year
:13:05. > :13:08.existing members would have to be party members for over six months to
:13:09. > :13:14.get a vote and Jeremy Corbyn was not pleased about that, seeing it as
:13:15. > :13:21.anti-democratic. Having spoken to NEC members, a senior member said
:13:22. > :13:25.this matter is settled. They said constitutionally they cannot reopen
:13:26. > :13:29.this for another three months, after the contest would take place and so
:13:30. > :13:34.it looks like Jeremy Corbyn will not overturn the crucial decisions by
:13:35. > :13:41.the NEC. As we speak there is a High Court challenge by a Labour funding
:13:42. > :13:45.person who wants to take Jeremy Corbyn off the ballot. The first
:13:46. > :13:50.stage of the legal challenges held today and it will be held in for one
:13:51. > :13:56.week from now. It is still not clear if Jeremy Corbyn has to go through
:13:57. > :14:00.the additional hoop of seeking MPs' support to get on the ballot, that
:14:01. > :14:04.will be down to the courts rather than the NEC. The wrangling
:14:05. > :14:08.continues. I did not realise that would go through the courts and
:14:09. > :14:13.could still threaten Jeremy Corbyn being on the ballot paper. If you
:14:14. > :14:16.look at the Labour Party membership and supporters, it looks like his
:14:17. > :14:23.support is growing according to the latest poll. That is right. A poll
:14:24. > :14:30.in the Times newspaper will come a shock reading for potential
:14:31. > :14:34.challengers. They are trying to decide among themselves who should
:14:35. > :14:39.be the sole challenger. To sort this out either today or at the latest by
:14:40. > :14:45.tomorrow, depending on who seems to garner most support among MPs but
:14:46. > :14:51.whoever wins according to this poll will be behind Jeremy Corbyn. A
:14:52. > :14:55.YouGov poll suggests 54% of supporters would give Jeremy Corbyn
:14:56. > :15:00.as first preference. Even if there were three candidates, Jeremy Corbyn
:15:01. > :15:04.would be put in top position by a majority of existing Labour Party
:15:05. > :15:09.members. There is a suggestion he is either 15, 20 points ahead of his
:15:10. > :15:15.nearest rival, depending on who the rival happens to be. Whoever it is,
:15:16. > :15:20.Owen Smith, Angela Eagle, they will have work cut out to convince Labour
:15:21. > :15:23.Party members. That they should be chucking out Jeremy Corbyn when the
:15:24. > :15:29.leadership result is announced in September.
:15:30. > :15:35.Iain Watson, thank you very much. Hilary Benn, are you shocked by that
:15:36. > :15:40.poll that puts Jeremy Corbyn more popular with Labour supporters? I
:15:41. > :15:46.think it's more popular than a poll that was taken three or four weeks
:15:47. > :15:49.ago. As I read it last night, it was something like 45% said they would
:15:50. > :15:56.definitely vote for him and then there were those who said they would
:15:57. > :16:01.probably. He could win again. It is possible. Labour Party members need
:16:02. > :16:05.to wake up the position we're in. Jeremy Corbyn has brought ideas and
:16:06. > :16:10.up debate... Do you really believe that? I think a lot of people voted
:16:11. > :16:15.for him because they wanted to shake things up a bit. That is what
:16:16. > :16:19.members have said to me. But I am eating party members who voted for
:16:20. > :16:27.him last time, who are now saying that was my motivation but it isn't
:16:28. > :16:31.really working -- I am meeting party members. There is going to be a very
:16:32. > :16:38.lively campaign and I hope the membership recognises we do need a
:16:39. > :16:43.new leader. Why Angela Eagle and not Owen Smith? Angela showed
:16:44. > :16:47.extraordinary courage in being the first person to say she will
:16:48. > :16:52.challenge Jeremy. Owen Smith has great qualities, too. There is a
:16:53. > :16:57.strong view in the Parliamentary Labour Party that we would like to
:16:58. > :17:04.see a single candidate challenging Germany. -- challenging Jeremy. We
:17:05. > :17:09.don't yet know how the nominations will pan out... But the person who
:17:10. > :17:14.garners the most support should be the one that goes forward, whether
:17:15. > :17:20.that's Owen Smith or Angela Eagle? I think that the cause of there being
:17:21. > :17:26.only one candidate but I won't pre-empt the decision. I'm backing
:17:27. > :17:32.Angela. You've resigned from the Shadow Cabinet. I was sacked, Jo.
:17:33. > :17:39.You must act, saying Jeremy Corbyn wasn't a credible leader. -- you
:17:40. > :17:43.were sacked. What makes you think Owen Smith or Angela Eagle are going
:17:44. > :17:47.to be able to unite what is now a completely fractured party? I think
:17:48. > :17:54.they have the capacity to do so. On the basis of what? On the basis we
:17:55. > :17:58.can't carry on. There is no evidence to show you can unite two sides of
:17:59. > :18:02.the Labour Party that fundamentally disagree with each other. We've been
:18:03. > :18:07.through difficult times like this before. I'm old enough to remember
:18:08. > :18:12.the late 70s and early 80s. It is a difficult time, it some pleasant, we
:18:13. > :18:15.are having party meetings suspended because of worries about
:18:16. > :18:19.intimidation and that's not a healthy state for any political
:18:20. > :18:24.party to be in. I'm sure even Ken would concede, we need a strong and
:18:25. > :18:28.effective opposition to the government because that's important
:18:29. > :18:35.for our democracy. I think that if we get a new leader, whether it is
:18:36. > :18:39.Angela or Owen, if they are able to beat Jeremy, I think we will begin
:18:40. > :18:44.the process of healing the party because I know they will reach out
:18:45. > :18:48.to others. I'm afraid Jeremy hasn't reached out and that's part of the
:18:49. > :18:53.reason the PLP has lost confidence in him. He says he would like to
:18:54. > :18:57.bridge the gulf. It does sound at the moment anybody but Jeremy
:18:58. > :19:00.Corbyn, it doesn't really matter to people like yourself what happens
:19:01. > :19:05.afterwards as long as you get rid of him. It matters enormously. I want
:19:06. > :19:10.us to be a credible party of government. We cannot just be a
:19:11. > :19:13.party of protest. I would say to Jeremy's supporters, none of his
:19:14. > :19:18.ideas are going to come to pass, none of them will be put into effect
:19:19. > :19:23.because the public don't see him as a credible Prime Minister. What
:19:24. > :19:28.other policies do you fundamentally disagree with and can't be part of
:19:29. > :19:31.the manifesto under Angela Eagle? I had quite well-known disagreements
:19:32. > :19:36.with Jeremy when it comes to foreign policy and those came to a head over
:19:37. > :19:41.Syria. I'll give you an example of two policies I support, the
:19:42. > :19:46.re-nationalisation of the railways. It's popular with the public.
:19:47. > :19:52.Secondly, more affordable housing. Jeremy wants to lift the borrowing
:19:53. > :19:56.cap put on local authorities to build more houses. The point is,
:19:57. > :20:03.this isn't a dispute actually about policy. It is about Jeremy's
:20:04. > :20:07.capacity to lead. You'll have seen the article Lilian Greenwood wrote
:20:08. > :20:11.yesterday where she set out from her point of view, she said it was to
:20:12. > :20:16.functional. That's why you've seen the vast majority of the Shadow
:20:17. > :20:20.Cabinet resign and that's why you've seen 80% of Labour MPs saying we
:20:21. > :20:25.don't have confidence in him. If Jeremy Corbyn wins, and there is a
:20:26. > :20:30.high probability he will, what then? We'll have to deal with the
:20:31. > :20:33.situation then. I hope that isn't the case... But you must have
:20:34. > :20:38.thought about it, because you made the mistake, not you personally but
:20:39. > :20:41.the party made that mistake of not thinking about it carefully first
:20:42. > :20:47.time around. Would you serve under Jeremy Corbyn? I don't think there's
:20:48. > :20:52.any likelihood he would invite me to serve. People have said honestly we
:20:53. > :20:57.don't have confidence in you in that eventuality, to then say they've
:20:58. > :21:02.changed their mind. So it would split the party? The party isn't
:21:03. > :21:06.going to split. If Jeremy Corbyn wins who's going to serve in the
:21:07. > :21:10.Shadow Cabinet? That is a problem for Jeremy to sort out. To be
:21:11. > :21:15.absolutely clear, the Labour Party isn't going to split because it
:21:16. > :21:19.belongs to all of us. Lots of people have devoted their life to the party
:21:20. > :21:26.and it belongs to all of us, not to any one individual or any part of
:21:27. > :21:29.the party. Ken Clarke, one thought on the disconnect between membership
:21:30. > :21:32.and the Parliamentary party. The Tory party have experienced that and
:21:33. > :21:37.under Iain Duncan Smith you could say there was that sort of
:21:38. > :21:41.disconnect. How does that happen? It is obviously dangerous.
:21:42. > :21:47.There are a reduced number of people who join political parties compared
:21:48. > :21:53.to 30 years ago. Our membership tends to be elderly and to the
:21:54. > :21:59.right. There's is young and to the left. They've got a lot more
:22:00. > :22:05.members. Hours are keen on being in government. I think our members
:22:06. > :22:07.would have voted for Theresa May. We had only one plausible prime
:22:08. > :22:14.ministerial candidate and I think she would have won easily. They
:22:15. > :22:18.aren't complaining that we shortened the process. This new young
:22:19. > :22:24.membership of the Labour Party, they are radical people of protest. It is
:22:25. > :22:27.a policy thing. I agree with your premise, I want to see the sensible
:22:28. > :22:35.members of the Labour Party emerged with a credible government in
:22:36. > :22:37.waiting. It improves the performance of the government in power once you
:22:38. > :22:42.are challenged properly which we aren't being at the moment.
:22:43. > :22:44.Last night on a train in Southern Germany,
:22:45. > :22:47.a 17-year-old Afghan refugee was shot dead by police
:22:48. > :22:50.after he attacked fellow passengers with an axe and knife.
:22:51. > :22:52.A hand-painted flag of the self-titled Islamic State has
:22:53. > :22:55.since been found in the teenager's room and the IS-linked Amaq news
:22:56. > :23:02.A hand-painted flag of the self-titled Islamic State has
:23:03. > :23:05.since been found in the teenager's room and the IS-linked Amaq news
:23:06. > :23:07.agency has claimed the teenager was an IS "fighter".
:23:08. > :23:10.Four people from Hong Kong were injured in the attack -
:23:11. > :23:12.Our correspondent in Berlin, Damien McGuiNness, has
:23:13. > :23:15.the latest on this story and the reaction in Germany.
:23:16. > :23:19.What's been the reaction in Germany politically and in the court of
:23:20. > :23:23.public opinion? I think what we can safely say is that this attack is
:23:24. > :23:28.going to have a major impact on German society. That's because as
:23:29. > :23:33.you know, last year Germany Tech in a large number of refugees and
:23:34. > :23:39.migrants. That decision was quite controversial. Lots of people agreed
:23:40. > :23:43.with it and saw it as a good humanitarian gesture. Lots of people
:23:44. > :23:50.disagreed with it and said it wanted destabilise Germany. -- said that it
:23:51. > :23:54.would destabilise Germany. This attack was carried out by a young
:23:55. > :24:00.asylum seeker who came in as part of the wave of refugees and migrants
:24:01. > :24:05.coming here. It's really going to reignite that debate over whether
:24:06. > :24:09.Perlin did the right thing by welcoming in so many refugees and
:24:10. > :24:14.migrants. On the other hand it's also going to put more pressure on
:24:15. > :24:21.Chancellor Angela Merkel because she is facing re-election in a general
:24:22. > :24:25.election next year. We also have regional elections here in Berlin in
:24:26. > :24:30.September. It's going to really have a political impact on the debate,
:24:31. > :24:35.particularly on the one hand to do with the refugee crisis and the
:24:36. > :24:40.government's response, and on the other hand the government's response
:24:41. > :24:43.to security and anti-terrorism measures. It'll increase the
:24:44. > :24:49.nervousness here in Germany that a large attack may at some point
:24:50. > :24:55.happen. It's seen as an individual taking violent action, only 17 years
:24:56. > :24:59.old. But the self-styled IS said they recruited him as a fighter, but
:25:00. > :25:04.it wasn't organised in the way we would perhaps presume if they had
:25:05. > :25:11.had a carefully orchestrated incident like this. That's right,
:25:12. > :25:16.Jo. That's the question right now. The first question was whether this
:25:17. > :25:21.was an Islamist extremist attack, it appears it probably was. There was
:25:22. > :25:27.the IS flagged in his accommodation and the fact that officials have
:25:28. > :25:32.found texts saying that Muslims should take up arms against the
:25:33. > :25:39.West. The second question is whether this was in fact organised by IS or
:25:40. > :25:43.whether he was a lone attacker. Officials in Germany are saying
:25:44. > :25:50.there's no connection they can see between this young man and so-called
:25:51. > :25:54.Islamic State. So far, all the evidence they say is pointing to the
:25:55. > :25:58.fact this was probably a lone attacker. This doesn't make Germans
:25:59. > :26:03.feel more secure because it doesn't mean this was a lone wolf attacking.
:26:04. > :26:08.It's almost harder to prevent something like that because it is
:26:09. > :26:12.such a random attack that you can't foresee. Officials are saying they
:26:13. > :26:17.see no connections with other Islamist groups and they also see no
:26:18. > :26:24.connection official league with so-called Islamic State. It could be
:26:25. > :26:26.that this young man was inspired by IS rather than radicalised directly
:26:27. > :26:35.by the group. This must be the worry that
:26:36. > :26:39.following the tragic events in Nice that individuals saying they are
:26:40. > :26:43.acting on behalf of so-called Islamic State are just deciding to
:26:44. > :26:48.do these things on their own. I agree. It will be a problem for
:26:49. > :26:53.years to come, it's one of the major problems all Western societies are
:26:54. > :26:59.going to face. If IS loses its territory in Syria and Iraq as a
:27:00. > :27:05.result of military campaigns, they will move into this kind of
:27:06. > :27:10.terrorism and there is undoubtedly a crazy mood amongst a fringe of young
:27:11. > :27:17.Muslims that attracts them to this one-off individual massacre of
:27:18. > :27:21.innocent people. It's no good thinking there's a simple way of
:27:22. > :27:24.getting rid of it. You have to improve your intelligence and
:27:25. > :27:28.security, you also have to decide how to mobilise the bulk of the
:27:29. > :27:34.Muslim population, to try to stop this awful influence. The pressure
:27:35. > :27:38.on Angela Merkel will be building, ever since she made that decision
:27:39. > :27:44.that meant that large numbers of migrants and refugees from Syria and
:27:45. > :27:48.other parts of the Middle East came into Europe in Germany, she is at
:27:49. > :27:52.risk politically, isn't she? She might be but that is because
:27:53. > :28:01.extremists and populist groups like to turn into the answer is stop
:28:02. > :28:05.these immigrants coming. They like to pray on these fears. The idea
:28:06. > :28:15.that the solution for Germany is to somehow stop foreigners coming, make
:28:16. > :28:19.sure the people fleeing anarchy and violence in the Middle East and
:28:20. > :28:25.Africa are turned back at our borders, is perverse. The fact is as
:28:26. > :28:28.we know, we've had random items of terrorism, we'll have more I'm
:28:29. > :28:34.afraid although our intelligence services do quite well. We've had
:28:35. > :28:40.British citizens carrying out attacks in London and killing
:28:41. > :28:44.people. Exploiting immigration is just a hardline right-wing
:28:45. > :28:45.exploitation of the understandable worries we have about terrorism in
:28:46. > :28:48.the next few years. The campaign to keep Britain
:28:49. > :28:51.in the EU hoped that their warnings of dire economic consequences
:28:52. > :28:53.if we left would be enough to persuade voters
:28:54. > :28:55.to maintain the status quo. But in the end Project Fear -
:28:56. > :28:58.as it was dubbed by the Leave campaign -
:28:59. > :29:00.failed to convince. So what impact has the decision
:29:01. > :29:03.to leave the EU had We can now say the decision taken
:29:04. > :29:12.in 1975 by this country to join the Common market has been reversed
:29:13. > :29:17.by this referendum to leave the EU. After weeks of campaigning
:29:18. > :29:23.and predictions of disaster from either side, whatever we chose,
:29:24. > :29:26.the result was, to many, unexpected, and came with a truckload
:29:27. > :29:31.of concerns and questions. Having been told by the then
:29:32. > :29:34.Chancellor George Osborne, among others, that leaving the EU
:29:35. > :29:40.would spell financial turmoil, he is no longer in charge of that
:29:41. > :29:43.economy nor in the government that But in one regard he was right
:29:44. > :29:46.and Leave supporters Brexit was always the more
:29:47. > :29:50.uncertain choice, because it And if there's one thing
:29:51. > :29:55.markets hate and react Across the world's markets
:29:56. > :30:01.that morning, sterling fell against the dollar,
:30:02. > :30:07.UK's credit rating was downgraded, the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 fell,
:30:08. > :30:10.as did shares in banks. And the IMF cut economic growth
:30:11. > :30:12.forecasts for the eurozone. Did it mean that Project Fear
:30:13. > :30:18.was becoming Project Fact? Loathe as I am to set up a strawman
:30:19. > :30:22.just to knock it down again, here in the Treasury of course
:30:23. > :30:25.they're watching the UK economy to see whether the vote to leave has
:30:26. > :30:29.had an effect on it. But when you're trying to decide
:30:30. > :30:32.that, it really rather depends If you are a Remainer you will look
:30:33. > :30:37.for evidence they were right, it is all a disaster
:30:38. > :30:40.and it is all going to go wrong. If you are a Leaver,
:30:41. > :30:43.you are going to be looking for evidence that backs up the fact
:30:44. > :30:46.that it was all fine after all. And the truth is it's
:30:47. > :30:48.really too early to tell. Frustratingly, that provides no
:30:49. > :30:51.reassurance for either But as economists who supported
:30:52. > :30:57.Brexit gathered in London last week, they were perhaps
:30:58. > :31:06.unsurprisingly upbeat. Often overlooked is
:31:07. > :31:09.the government borrowing rate Admittedly borrowing rates of many
:31:10. > :31:13.countries are at low levels but it suggests that international
:31:14. > :31:15.investors have not It highlights the fact that the UK
:31:16. > :31:19.Government, if it wanted to, with a new Prime Minister,
:31:20. > :31:21.could borrow incredibly cheaply So when you look at the markets,
:31:22. > :31:25.look at what is happening, as opposed to listening to what
:31:26. > :31:28.people are saying in some respects. Nonetheless, in the world financial
:31:29. > :31:31.powerhouse that is London, there are still signs our referendum
:31:32. > :31:33.decision is having some negative repercussions, especially
:31:34. > :31:36.within the currency markets. Because why would you invest
:31:37. > :31:41.in a country that has yet to work out what its new position
:31:42. > :31:45.is in the normal world environment? But we are not in a normal
:31:46. > :31:52.world environment. We are in a world with almost 0
:31:53. > :31:55.to negative interest rates. We are in a world where growth
:31:56. > :31:58.is at best sluggish. The US could be led by,
:31:59. > :32:01.the first time really in 100 years, by somebody who doesn't believe
:32:02. > :32:09.in international trade and global China, the next biggest economy
:32:10. > :32:13.in the world, is slowing rapidly. Nobody quite knows how much
:32:14. > :32:16.because the official GDP data In a normal world, if this happens,
:32:17. > :32:24.then yes, people would stop Softbank's ?24 billion purchase
:32:25. > :32:29.of ARM will be seized But in the months to come expect
:32:30. > :32:36.supporters of Leave and Remain to cherry pick economic news that
:32:37. > :32:38.chips away at the Joining me now is the former Justice
:32:39. > :33:00.minister and leading Leave Welcome back. Let's look at the
:33:01. > :33:10.data. After the vote to leave, the UK growth forecast for 2016 was cut
:33:11. > :33:13.to 1.9%. Down to door .4% for 2017 and consumer confidence fell at its
:33:14. > :33:21.fastest pace in 22 years with the high street suffering in the wake of
:33:22. > :33:25.the vote to leave, according to a research Society. The warnings of a
:33:26. > :33:29.bomb on to the economy and recession have been proved wrong on the
:33:30. > :33:33.forecasts you just gave me because the suggestion there might be a cut
:33:34. > :33:38.of growth is different from going into recession. Employment is at
:33:39. > :33:43.record levels borrowing levels are good for us and the latest
:33:44. > :33:48.manufacturing index data has been positive and the FTSE 100 and 250
:33:49. > :33:53.are at higher levels than when David Cameron came back with the EU deal
:33:54. > :33:55.in February. Nobody has said there are not short-term risks but my
:33:56. > :34:01.argument would be when we go into the Brexit negotiation and as
:34:02. > :34:04.parameters become clearer and we are clear we will not end up with
:34:05. > :34:11.massive trade barriers, we should focus on managing risk but there are
:34:12. > :34:15.huge opportunities. Let's not talk of it as a damage limitation
:34:16. > :34:23.exercise. Manage the risk and sees those opportunities. It is too early
:34:24. > :34:27.to tell, isn't it? I agree with your commentator. It is silly to look at
:34:28. > :34:33.economic policy and movement in terms of fighting a game that
:34:34. > :34:36.ridiculous referendum campaign when arguments on both sides were frankly
:34:37. > :34:44.painful and rather silly. What you cannot do, my view is you cannot
:34:45. > :34:51.reduce trade links with the market of 500 million people without making
:34:52. > :34:54.yourself poorer. I think there is uncertainty that is causing not only
:34:55. > :35:00.financial markets to go mad. Which they do anyway. We have no
:35:01. > :35:03.investment taking place and falling confidence. The longer the
:35:04. > :35:10.uncertainty goes on more likely we go into recession between now and
:35:11. > :35:16.Christmas. The sooner we end the uncertainty and I agree with
:35:17. > :35:25.Dominik, make sure we do not put new barriers to trade and investment --
:35:26. > :35:28.Dominic Raab. We are going to talk about... All the other things they
:35:29. > :35:32.are arguing about, I would leave that. I would get on with restoring
:35:33. > :35:38.confidence and get people to invest here again by establishing the kind
:35:39. > :35:45.of access the Norwegians have got. There is a recession by Christmas?
:35:46. > :35:52.We were told we would be on an economic cliff edge the day after. I
:35:53. > :35:57.did not say that. He said there would be a recession the day after?
:35:58. > :36:02.I said economic cliff edge. We have not seen that. Look at the Footsie.
:36:03. > :36:06.Let's be clear about the FTSE and the value of sterling. There were
:36:07. > :36:12.falls and it has rallied a little against the dollar and euro. The
:36:13. > :36:17.FTSE 100 later recovered but the FTSE 250 is still below the
:36:18. > :36:21.pre-referendum level. But not below the level when David Cameron came
:36:22. > :36:25.back in February. Businesses from Aston Martin to Amazon have since
:36:26. > :36:32.the result announced new investment in the UK in terms of Aston Martin's
:36:33. > :36:36.Welsh facility and jobs in the UK. I would say there is uncertainty but
:36:37. > :36:42.it is not the doom and gloom predicted. Just before that, on
:36:43. > :36:47.uncertainty, it would be about whether businesses hold on cash,
:36:48. > :36:51.they don't invest. Will that happen because we have to wait at least two
:36:52. > :36:58.years before we know what will come? Two things have happened. One of the
:36:59. > :37:00.causes of uncertainty was about the vacuuming government after the
:37:01. > :37:05.referendum when David Cameron resigned and that has been resolved
:37:06. > :37:08.mercifully swiftly which is one reason why sterling and the FTSE
:37:09. > :37:14.rebounded. And the second thing that has to happen, which we expect by
:37:15. > :37:22.Christmas, is the parameters of the negotiation will be clearer. I hope
:37:23. > :37:27.that that point... There -- it is clear there will not be huge trade
:37:28. > :37:31.barriers. Wait and see the light of the land. It has nothing to do with
:37:32. > :37:35.ludicrous scaremongering preceding the referendum. The ludicrous
:37:36. > :37:41.scaremongering, the idea of a punishment budget, we know what
:37:42. > :37:46.happened to George George Osborne. Balancing the budget at the end of
:37:47. > :37:50.the Parliament has been abandoned. Growth put before deficit reduction,
:37:51. > :37:56.these are positive things? Some things that were said were as daft
:37:57. > :38:02.as the billions of Turks that would flood in if we voted to remain. I
:38:03. > :38:12.stick to the IMF, Bank of England. Mark Carney has been running the
:38:13. > :38:17.shop recently very well. We reported about the institutions. There is a
:38:18. > :38:21.view that many Leave voters felt they were not benefiting from the
:38:22. > :38:27.so-called recovery. We had enough experts. For example, IMF, Bank of
:38:28. > :38:33.England, Mark Carney, the IMF come out with dire predictions. The
:38:34. > :38:37.former chief economist of the IMF, and the committee of the bank of
:38:38. > :38:42.England said it will not be quite as bad as that. What we argued was some
:38:43. > :38:45.political appointees are coming out with rather partisan assessments
:38:46. > :38:53.which their experts do not agree with. Do not attack Mark Carney as a
:38:54. > :38:57.political appointee. Do not interpret the events of the first
:38:58. > :39:01.month as a means of allowing you to make attacks on these institutions
:39:02. > :39:12.made in the first part of the campaign. You got the Euro wrong.
:39:13. > :39:19.Silly populist politics is not the way to deal with a serious economic
:39:20. > :39:26.problem. I scrutinised Mark Carney. Did you accuse him of not being
:39:27. > :39:31.independent? The point I made was when these people came out we
:39:32. > :39:35.looked, for example, Mark Carney, at the Select Committee gave a balanced
:39:36. > :39:39.set of evidence and when he went on the Andrew Marr Show I felt it was a
:39:40. > :39:43.stronger political intervention. You shake your head but compare the
:39:44. > :39:50.evidence he gave to the Treasury Committee. On batch... The serious
:39:51. > :39:57.problem is you will not get major investment in this country. It will
:39:58. > :40:06.not all stop. You will not get the major investment and restore
:40:07. > :40:08.confidence. Rolls-Royce. Gentleman. Until you establish exactly what
:40:09. > :40:14.trade and economic relationships will be. We will discuss that. If
:40:15. > :40:17.you sacrifice some of the axis we have now to the European single
:40:18. > :40:28.market, you will make this country poorer. We are going to talk about
:40:29. > :40:36.it. I want to ask Dominic Raab briefly. You were not on the -- you
:40:37. > :40:40.on the winning side, disappointed you lost your job? More gratified to
:40:41. > :40:44.see Britain take the right decision and I want to see at work and I will
:40:45. > :40:49.support this government and also like Ken Clarke enjoyed the freedom
:40:50. > :40:55.of the backbenchers. Be backed Michael Gove. He is no longer around
:40:56. > :41:00.the cabinet. How big a loss is he to government? One of the great social
:41:01. > :41:04.reformers of our generation so I am sorry to see him go. I will not
:41:05. > :41:10.quibble with the new Prime Minister who has the right to pick a team. I
:41:11. > :41:13.did not bad-mouth anyone through the campaign nor the leadership contest
:41:14. > :41:17.and I will not do it now. You expected probably to be there
:41:18. > :41:22.because people would say you were a leading light in the Leave campaign
:41:23. > :41:24.that was victorious. Very kind, but lots of people have expectations.
:41:25. > :41:27.Politics is a game of ups and downs. One of the big issues as we begin
:41:28. > :41:31.the process of leaving the EU will be what it means for trade
:41:32. > :41:34.with the rest of the world. Those who wanted us to remain
:41:35. > :41:37.in the EU argued the size of the single market is an advantage
:41:38. > :41:39.when striking trade agreements with other countries,
:41:40. > :41:41.while Leave campaigners say the EU is slow at agreeing deals and that
:41:42. > :41:44.Britain loses out from not being able to negotiate
:41:45. > :41:46.our own deals. As well as operating as a single
:41:47. > :41:52.market for trade within the EU, the European Union currently has
:41:53. > :41:56.in place 22 bilateral and five The UK is prevented from signing
:41:57. > :42:04.individual trade deals with other member states or with non-EU
:42:05. > :42:07.countries before it has Brexit Minister David Davis
:42:08. > :42:11.and Trade Minister Liam Fox say they are working towards a leaving
:42:12. > :42:17.date of first January 2019 and that they are already involved
:42:18. > :42:21.in informal trade talks with the aim of having agreements ready
:42:22. > :42:28.to sign on that date. At the weekend Liam Fox said
:42:29. > :42:30.he is "scoping out" deals with a dozen countries and had
:42:31. > :42:33.opened "very fruitful" He cites Australian Prime Minister
:42:34. > :42:37.Malcolm Turnbull's offer to strike a deal with the UK "as soon
:42:38. > :42:40.as possible" as evidence that post-Brexit Britain can be
:42:41. > :42:43."a beacon for open trade." But others warn that as Britain
:42:44. > :42:47.will be unable to conclude trade deals until it has officially left
:42:48. > :42:50.the EU it may initially have to operate under
:42:51. > :42:52.World Trade Organisation Rules and faces uncertainty over future
:42:53. > :42:56.access to the single market. EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia
:42:57. > :43:01.Malmstrom said earlier this month that the UK cannot begin negotiating
:43:02. > :43:04.a new trade relationship with the EU Dominic Raab is still with us
:43:05. > :43:11.and we've also been joined by Sir Lockwood Smith, New Zealand's
:43:12. > :43:23.High Commissioner in London. Welcome. We were starting to talk
:43:24. > :43:27.about it, we cannot sign deals until we have officially left, that has to
:43:28. > :43:31.be the most worrying thing for British business, the uncertainty
:43:32. > :43:36.you were conceding could set in. I think it is the opposite. We can do
:43:37. > :43:40.the preliminary negotiation and have them ready to go when we leave the
:43:41. > :43:46.EU. Can they be ready to go on day one? You can have informal
:43:47. > :43:51.discussions. People will not invest here to sell cars in Australia or
:43:52. > :43:58.New Zealand. You cannot activate deals because you cannot remain in
:43:59. > :44:02.the single European market and then just let everybody else import into
:44:03. > :44:07.your bit of it. We have to put frontiers in place to get government
:44:08. > :44:10.access. Trade is a complicated thing and those people who have talked
:44:11. > :44:15.about trade negotiations have never had anything to do with them. I have
:44:16. > :44:20.probably heard more rubbish on trade negotiations talked in the
:44:21. > :44:24.referendum than any other subject. Deal with New Zealand, fine but for
:44:25. > :44:28.the time being we are in the single market and we have to work out the
:44:29. > :44:32.basis of what access we will retain to that market. Does Ken Clarke have
:44:33. > :44:38.a point, that should be the priority? We will talk about free
:44:39. > :44:43.trade deals with Australia and Canada but given over 40% of exports
:44:44. > :44:48.go to the EU, is that the priority, securing access to that single
:44:49. > :44:52.market? The referendum was won on taking back control of the economy,
:44:53. > :44:57.laws and borders and the idea we would have free movement and trade,
:44:58. > :45:05.with single market access will not happen. What you said about 40% is
:45:06. > :45:10.right. The gradual share of UK exports of shifted from the
:45:11. > :45:14.continent. Why is that important? Strike more free trade deals, boost
:45:15. > :45:21.jobs at home and cut prices in the shops. That was not my question.
:45:22. > :45:26.What should be the priority? We are not going to trade free movement for
:45:27. > :45:29.access to the single market but there is massive mutual
:45:30. > :45:37.self-interest in making sure we keep that trade going because we have a
:45:38. > :45:42.trade deficit. Why on earth would the French and Germans go into
:45:43. > :45:57.elections in 2017 on a manifesto promising to hike trade barriers.
:45:58. > :46:03.I was the first Trade Minister in the world to sign China up to the
:46:04. > :46:10.World Trade Organisation. I initiated Australia New Zealand...
:46:11. > :46:17.So I know a bit about it. It is complex. One has to be honest. In
:46:18. > :46:21.fact how the UK and negotiates this parting of the ways is hugely
:46:22. > :46:25.important for the world. Because the world needs both the UK and the EU
:46:26. > :46:30.doing well. New Zealand does well when you people do well. With that
:46:31. > :46:37.affect the sort of trade deal you'd be prepared to sign with the UK?
:46:38. > :46:41.We'll work in formerly obviously with the UK. But in fact a couple of
:46:42. > :46:48.things have to happen. First this negotiation with the EU, how the
:46:49. > :46:54.future trade relationship will be. Also at the WTO, the UK has to
:46:55. > :46:59.establish its schedule at the WTO. That may involve replacing the word
:47:00. > :47:04.EU with the UK. All the other members have the chance to have a
:47:05. > :47:07.say in that. These things have to be progressed carefully, wisely and New
:47:08. > :47:13.Zealand is prepared to help whenever we can. It sounds tentative. You're
:47:14. > :47:18.saying you want to see what's going to happen first. We want to help. We
:47:19. > :47:22.think it is not a matter of waiting to see what will happen, we want to
:47:23. > :47:28.help the UK sort out the steps and how to get a really good outcome.
:47:29. > :47:32.It's in our interests. In that sense, there's also talk that being
:47:33. > :47:37.too eager to sign up to trade deals with the likes of Zealand and
:47:38. > :47:43.Australia in formerly, until actually the UK leads the EU, that
:47:44. > :47:45.you will give away too much. There will be too much eagerness to have
:47:46. > :47:51.these deals ready to go that mistakes will be made. I don't think
:47:52. > :47:54.that's the dynamic. I'll see you step negotiating basement protection
:47:55. > :47:59.agreements so I know what it's like to negotiate some of these deals. We
:48:00. > :48:02.should go to countries like New Zealand and Australia. They sell
:48:03. > :48:07.their exports of wine to the UK. We should be going to them, we want to
:48:08. > :48:13.drink more of your wine. That will put the pressure on the French and
:48:14. > :48:17.will be the biggest dampening on the likelihood of trade barriers. We
:48:18. > :48:21.should be doing the same with the Koreans and the Japanese around
:48:22. > :48:24.cars. We should at the same time be going to the business there's an
:48:25. > :48:30.trade fairs across continental Europe and saying, we want to keep
:48:31. > :48:33.buying your goods, we are going to have a more competitive arrangement
:48:34. > :48:39.going forward. Don't let the politicians ruin it. In 2017 there
:48:40. > :48:42.are German presidential elections, are they really going to run on a
:48:43. > :48:47.manifesto of trade barriers that will crush French and German jobs?
:48:48. > :48:52.They make it more difficult to make concessions. The German and French
:48:53. > :48:55.will want to minimise the damage from this but I hope Liam Fox is
:48:56. > :49:00.listening to this is about how we are going to go on. Meanwhile what I
:49:01. > :49:04.really dislike is the idea that of course is the condition of the trade
:49:05. > :49:07.deals is it all depends on our reaching some decision about which
:49:08. > :49:12.people we are going to stop coming to work here, which people will stop
:49:13. > :49:18.coming to be students. We are going to say to the Europeans, we don't
:49:19. > :49:21.want your construction workers, your academics, the students coming to
:49:22. > :49:28.our universities, we are going to put our controls on them. And of
:49:29. > :49:32.course trade is going to be dependent on our agreement first of
:49:33. > :49:38.all. This nonsense has got to be abandoned. But people will have to
:49:39. > :49:41.respond to the vote. We've run out of time but do you think you will
:49:42. > :49:47.sign up a deal the day after Brexit happens? We certainly want to be
:49:48. > :49:51.involved in the informal work but it's got to be done sensibly and
:49:52. > :49:59.wisely and the EU has got to be part of this. It's got to be done in a
:50:00. > :50:03.balanced way with smart minds. On the other side of the political
:50:04. > :50:08.pond, this was supposed to be the week where Donald Trump was anointed
:50:09. > :50:11.as Republican candidate for the presidential election. The
:50:12. > :50:20.Republican Convention Toft Way rather chaotic start. Andrew is in
:50:21. > :50:25.New York and has been across events. Tell us what happened. America went
:50:26. > :50:32.to bed in King Mrs Trump had done a pretty good job. It was a little
:50:33. > :50:39.over scripted but she pulled it off and was getting good reviews in the
:50:40. > :50:45.post-speech analysis. America has woken up to a huge row that a huge
:50:46. > :50:49.chunk of the speech was plagiarised from Michelle Obama's speech to the
:50:50. > :50:52.Democratic convention. They overlapped, the use of words is
:50:53. > :50:57.almost exactly the same. Normally what would happen is that the speech
:50:58. > :51:03.writer would be given a loaded revolver and a bottle of whiskey and
:51:04. > :51:09.simply held off a tall building. The problem is that Mrs Trump has told
:51:10. > :51:12.an American network that she scripted the speech almost entirely
:51:13. > :51:17.herself and she only had to rehearse it once. It's an ongoing row but
:51:18. > :51:22.this being the Trump campaign, in the end probably nothing will come
:51:23. > :51:27.of it. Does anything seem to stick? Does any of it matter? Nothing so
:51:28. > :51:34.far. Other than Mrs Trump last night, it was a collection of beer
:51:35. > :51:38.list celebrities. There was a guy from Happy Days, there was an
:51:39. > :51:48.Italian male model, there will walk on parts
:51:49. > :51:54.from The Apprentice. The attempt to try and stop him from being the
:51:55. > :51:58.Republican nomination petered out yesterday afternoon. It now builds
:51:59. > :52:02.up to his coronation on Thursday night. What we still don't know is
:52:03. > :52:06.how he will reach out beyond his base which was there last night, to
:52:07. > :52:12.the broad electorate that he needs to win. That will be the test he's
:52:13. > :52:23.got to pass on Thursday. What did you make of Rudy Giuliani? He gave a
:52:24. > :52:26.fairly rousing speech himself. It was barnstorming. It was probably
:52:27. > :52:31.the best speech of the night if you like that kind of thing. He was way
:52:32. > :52:35.ahead of the other speakers and it hammered home the theme of this
:52:36. > :52:41.convention that America is unsafe, it will take Donald Trump to make it
:52:42. > :52:45.safe, that Obama has been weak and Hillary Clinton will be even weaker.
:52:46. > :52:49.That was the theme pounded out again and again and again. Not say from
:52:50. > :52:56.its enemies abroad, not save they save from its enemies within. And
:52:57. > :53:00.taking place after yet more police shootings, this resonates with the
:53:01. > :53:05.Republican base. Does it resonate beyond that? That, we still don't
:53:06. > :53:11.know. Is there any evidence that he's reaching out beyond the core?
:53:12. > :53:15.There is. The polls are narrowing in his favour. Mrs Clinton is still in
:53:16. > :53:19.the lead but there's quite a lot of evidence to suggest that the more
:53:20. > :53:24.you talk about law and order issues, the more you talk about toughness in
:53:25. > :53:28.America, the more that connects with a particular blue-collar vote. This
:53:29. > :53:33.Republican party is not the Republican party of old, of the East
:53:34. > :53:41.Coast, of the establishment, of the money, of Wall Street. This is a
:53:42. > :53:46.reinvented workers party. It is increasingly a blue-collar party on
:53:47. > :53:50.the right. The question is, and it's a white blue-collar party. I'm told
:53:51. > :53:57.there may be fewer black delegates at this convention than there were
:53:58. > :54:02.at the 1964 convention when Goldwater was nominated post-civil
:54:03. > :54:06.rights. Mr Trump intends on getting a massive turnout of disillusioned
:54:07. > :54:11.white voters, and there are plenty of those around. Thank you very much
:54:12. > :54:16.forgetting up so early to talk to us. Your cheque is in the post. Yet
:54:17. > :54:21.another 10p. LAUGHTER Now, Ken here is famous
:54:22. > :54:23.for speaking is mind, Indeed he tends to be even more
:54:24. > :54:27.outspoken when he thinks the microphones are off but are,
:54:28. > :54:34.in fact, on. In a recent unguarded moment he
:54:35. > :54:37.described Theresa May as a bloody difficult woman although it doesn't
:54:38. > :54:39.seem to have dented her career prospects.
:54:40. > :54:42.So to honour this Great British tradition of accidental
:54:43. > :55:07.plain-speaking, here's our top five microphone gaffes.
:55:08. > :55:09.Well all these Eastern Europeans that are coming in...
:55:10. > :55:15.About a million British people have gone into Europe.
:55:16. > :55:56.The irony is that what they need to do is get Syria to get Hezbollah
:55:57. > :56:02.His derogatory comments about the three, who are known
:56:03. > :56:04.to have reservations about Britain's links with Europe,
:56:05. > :56:08.is just the kind of political blunder Mr Major could ill afford,
:56:09. > :56:16.The Prime Minister said he'd got threebastards in the cabinet.
:56:17. > :56:23.Mr Reagan was at the ranch preparing for the weekly radio broadcast.
:56:24. > :56:25.Testing the microphone, he made a light-hearted remark that
:56:26. > :56:33.For the networks recorded it and last night broadcasted it.
:56:34. > :56:35.My fellow Americans, I'm pleased to tell you today that
:56:36. > :56:38.I've signed legislation that will outlaw Russia for ever.
:56:39. > :56:58.Those famous gaffes. We're joined by Parliamentary sketch writer for the
:56:59. > :57:04.Guardian. Do they ruin careers best amok not in the case of Ken, for
:57:05. > :57:12.certain. One of the secret sister have first name recognition. I think
:57:13. > :57:18.if you are a Boris, your gaffes tend to be forgiven -- one of the secrets
:57:19. > :57:21.is to have first name recognition. There was a sense that you were
:57:22. > :57:30.saying something that everybody thought was true. You said what you
:57:31. > :57:33.really meant. Absolutely. I went on to compare her with Margaret
:57:34. > :57:39.Thatcher who was also a bloody difficult woman. I think I added to
:57:40. > :57:44.the entertainment of the nation, that was the impression I got. Every
:57:45. > :57:50.colleague I met came towards me laughing because they'd just been
:57:51. > :57:56.watching it. Don't you think it's time politicians learn to be careful
:57:57. > :58:03.around radio microphones? LAUGHTER In the age of spin doctors who
:58:04. > :58:07.carefully micromanage lines, and politicians only saying things
:58:08. > :58:11.they've been told to say by the whips, it is often refreshing to get
:58:12. > :58:15.something of the real person. With your line on Michael Gove, I think
:58:16. > :58:19.you were probably conservative. I think he could fight a war with four
:58:20. > :58:25.or five countries at the same time not just three! Anything you'd like
:58:26. > :58:32.to say to the nation today before we go?! I accept the stricture that
:58:33. > :58:36.Malcolm Rifkind and I have been around far too long to be caught
:58:37. > :58:41.sitting in a TV studio with the microphone on. We are obviously
:58:42. > :58:45.losing a bit of our old professionalism really. Worse things
:58:46. > :58:51.have happened. I don't think heard with those other mega disasters mind
:58:52. > :58:57.was anything other than enlightening the nation of what precisely my
:58:58. > :58:58.views were. Thank you for coming in. Thank you for being the guest of the
:58:59. > :59:01.day. Goodbye. You're coming across as, frankly,
:59:02. > :59:06.ridiculous. You've done an appalling job
:59:07. > :59:12.of selling them online. Erm...
:59:13. > :59:14.I mean, I'm... We're... We're...