Autumn Statement 2016

:00:32. > :00:40.Welcome to this BBC News Special on the Chancellor's Autumn Statement.

:00:41. > :00:46.Forgive the sound of my voice. I have plenty of lozenges to get us

:00:47. > :00:55.through. Today's Autumn Statement is the

:00:56. > :00:57.first financial set-piece since Britain decided to leave

:00:58. > :00:59.the European Union The new Chancellor says he wants

:01:00. > :01:03.the country to be "match fit" for the opportunities

:01:04. > :01:10.and challenges ahead. I'm in poverties mouth, one of the

:01:11. > :01:13.key industrial hub on the south koe.s I will be talking to

:01:14. > :01:15.businesses here, large and small about what they make of the

:01:16. > :01:17.Chancellor's businesses here, large and small

:01:18. > :01:19.about what they make of the Chancellor's statementp

:01:20. > :01:23.I'll be responding to your e-mails, texts and tweets about what the

:01:24. > :01:29.Autumn Statement means for you and your family. I'm in the what the of

:01:30. > :01:32.the City of London there.s' been market volitility ever since the

:01:33. > :01:35.referendum. How will the same markets respond today? And I'm house

:01:36. > :01:39.Parliament getting the thoughts of politicians from the major parties

:01:40. > :01:47.and their assessment of the new Chancellor's performance.

:01:48. > :01:50.And all that over the course of the next four hours here on BBC2

:01:51. > :01:53.and we're also joined by viewers on the BBC News Channel.

:01:54. > :01:54.With me throughout are the BBC's political

:01:55. > :02:00.and our economics editor, Kamal Ahmed.

:02:01. > :02:04.Well, Philip Hammond left Number 11 Downing Street just

:02:05. > :02:10.He says the public finances face a "sharp challenge"

:02:11. > :02:12.and that he wants to make the economy "watertight".

:02:13. > :02:18.His boss in Number Ten says she wants a country

:02:19. > :02:23.that works for everyone, in particular those people "just

:02:24. > :02:30.But with growth next year expected to be lower then previously

:02:31. > :02:36.forecast, how will Mr Hammond be able to meet these twin challenges?

:02:37. > :02:40.Well, the last time a Chancellor stood at the Despatch Box to deliver

:02:41. > :02:43.a financial statement, it was a chap called George Osborne

:02:44. > :02:54.Remember him? No giggling at the back.

:02:55. > :02:57.All the forecasts back in March assumed we would be staying

:02:58. > :03:07.Britain will be stronger, safer and better off,

:03:08. > :03:16.possible scenarios, which could, possibly,

:03:17. > :03:24.The British people have spoken and the answer is - we're out.

:03:25. > :03:45.I think the country requires fresh leadership.

:03:46. > :03:48.We don't see any need for an emergency Budget.

:03:49. > :03:59.I expect to make an Autumn Statement in the usual way.

:04:00. > :04:02.We are ready to take whatever steps are necessary to protect this

:04:03. > :04:28.We are going to go through a period of volitility now.

:04:29. > :04:31.The UK economy grew faster than expected in the three months

:04:32. > :04:49.I've been here for 25 years and I hope it's going to be

:04:50. > :05:16.A reminder of some of the remarkable things that have been going on this

:05:17. > :05:19.year alone. Laura, in the run-up to this Autumn Statement, he get the

:05:20. > :05:25.impression there was a the bit of, how should I put it, bargaining

:05:26. > :05:29.between Number 10 Downing Street and Number 11? Indeed. Classic tension,

:05:30. > :05:36.how account Treasury make Downing Street's rhetoric add up to reality.

:05:37. > :05:40.Repeatedly May hae has made her sell to the British public that she wants

:05:41. > :05:44.to stand up for people who are finding it hard it get by, the

:05:45. > :05:50.Treasury, however, despite everything that has changed, all the

:05:51. > :05:56.uncertainty is focussed on how to pare back spending. Phil Hammond has

:05:57. > :05:59.a more relaxed approach to get the deficit down but don't be under any

:06:00. > :06:08.illusion, we are still in hard times. So Number 10, and Number 1

:06:09. > :06:11.#1, I think it would be an overexaggeration to say daggers

:06:12. > :06:16.drawn, but there is still tension. We are going to look at what has

:06:17. > :06:19.been proposed, not what ministers talk b the giveaways, the briefing

:06:20. > :06:24.that comes out, but the takeaways in the afternoon. And perhaps the

:06:25. > :06:27.Treasury now not as around as it was under Gordon Brown or George

:06:28. > :06:31.Osborne? Absolutely. It is one of the biggest changes in this new

:06:32. > :06:35.administration. David Cameron and George Osborne and before that,

:06:36. > :06:39.Gordon Brown and Tony Blair, who's relationship was different, but in

:06:40. > :06:43.terms of having two big alpha beasts around the Cabinet table was the

:06:44. > :06:47.same. We had the two duets who were almost as powerful as each other,

:06:48. > :06:49.George Osborne and David Cameron used to basically preagree

:06:50. > :06:52.everything between the two of them before the rest of Government had a

:06:53. > :06:58.chance to get in the room. Things are very different now. Number 11 is

:06:59. > :07:04.one of the Prime Minister's ministries, rather than being part

:07:05. > :07:07.of this, sort of super-power cupel. Interesting -- couple.

:07:08. > :07:10.Interestingly, Phil Hammond started off thinking that's how it should

:07:11. > :07:13.be, he started thinking that the Treasury should be a finance

:07:14. > :07:17.department, he is the chief finance officer in a business but in terms

:07:18. > :07:22.of politics, as things have got going I'm in the so sure everyone at

:07:23. > :07:26.the Treasury is as happy at being a bit less important. He seems relaxed

:07:27. > :07:30.#6789d we have a picture of him -- he seems relaxed. We have a picture

:07:31. > :07:34.of him reading his own Autumn Statement, that clearly taken on the

:07:35. > :07:41.run, not in anyway a posed picture for the media! He has a semi-on his

:07:42. > :07:46.face, which we don't often see, probably realising the ludicrous

:07:47. > :07:51.nature of these pictures but he has this uncertainty of the consequences

:07:52. > :07:57.of Brexit next year. That's a real difficult problem. It is a hugely

:07:58. > :07:59.difficult problem. And, as everything with this Government,

:08:00. > :08:03.that's the backdrop to the lot. You know, they don't want to be defined

:08:04. > :08:11.by Brexit but like it or not, that's the backdrop to the lot and whatever

:08:12. > :08:16.measures the Treasury come forward with, everybody knows, the probably

:08:17. > :08:19.biggest headline will be how bad the outlook looks, in terms of the

:08:20. > :08:23.economy. Worth remembering, though n recent months, the Treasury has been

:08:24. > :08:26.proved wrong in terms of what they predicted for the immediate

:08:27. > :08:31.aftermath of the referendum vote. So, as ever, you have to have a

:08:32. > :08:37.pretty heavy dose of salt in terms of the forecasts. Absolutely:

:08:38. > :08:39.So that's the political backdrop to today.

:08:40. > :08:44.A key part of the Chancellor's statement will be the new set

:08:45. > :08:46.of independent forecasts provided by the Office for Budget

:08:47. > :08:52.The last set in March were predicated on official

:08:53. > :08:56.Government policy which, at the time, was to remain

:08:57. > :09:05.Official Government policy is now to leave the EU.

:09:06. > :09:07.So, Kamal, what should we be looking out for?

:09:08. > :09:14.No change really, there. Starting off, let's take all forecasts with a

:09:15. > :09:17.degree of scepticism, I think, they are a path, a possible journey, only

:09:18. > :09:22.a possible journey, other things could happen. But let's start but

:09:23. > :09:27.looking they deficit protections. -- projections.

:09:28. > :09:30.That's what the Government spends over what it earns -

:09:31. > :09:33.These are the forecasts from the Office for

:09:34. > :09:34.Budget Responsibility, the independent economic watchdog,

:09:35. > :09:36.published at the time of the Budget in March.

:09:37. > :09:43.They show that budget coming down every year, pretty sharply. 55

:09:44. > :09:54.billion, in the year of borrowing. The important figure

:09:55. > :09:56.is that last one. George Osborne said he wanted

:09:57. > :09:59.to achieve a budget surplus by 2020, that moment when the Government

:10:00. > :10:03.starts earning more than it spends. Since then we've had the referendum,

:10:04. > :10:15.the fall in sterling and a downgrade That has changed the numbers we

:10:16. > :10:18.expect the OBR to publish today. You can see the Institute for Fiscal

:10:19. > :10:22.Studies forecast of what the OBR's forecast might be. It is a forecast

:10:23. > :10:25.of a forecast but it shows that although borrow something falling

:10:26. > :10:33.every year, city, look at that 2019-20 figure now. It is still

:10:34. > :10:53.borrowing. Still a deficit by 2019-20.

:10:54. > :11:01.Of it is pro-Brexit but there are other problems, the Chinese economy,

:11:02. > :11:06.etc. But what is the Government going to do now for hitting a dead

:11:07. > :11:12.lain and what deadline for the books will it set? And it'll be a small

:11:13. > :11:16.percentage of GDP, below the mass rate of 3%. But am I right in

:11:17. > :11:19.thinking some of the reason for the slower deficit reduction, one of the

:11:20. > :11:22.reasons is that the forecasters are assuming lower economic growth? Yes,

:11:23. > :11:25.that's right. So the level of economic growth in a country is

:11:26. > :11:29.absolutely linked to the public finances. The better growth, the

:11:30. > :11:33.better the public finances, because you get better tax receipts, in

:11:34. > :11:36.particular. So, today we will get the new economic growth forecast

:11:37. > :11:45.from the Office for Budget Responsibility. The OBR basis its

:11:46. > :11:49.forecast on Government policy. It'll be interesting how much that changes

:11:50. > :11:54.now that the Government policy is to leave the Budget urge about. Letsd'

:11:55. > :11:57.remind ourselves what the OBR said in March 2016, George Osborne's last

:11:58. > :12:03.budget. They suggested that growth this year would be 2%. Now, as you

:12:04. > :12:07.say, Andrew, actually, the economy has done better than many people

:12:08. > :12:12.expected, despite the referendum vote. There is a lot of momentum in

:12:13. > :12:14.the economy. And the Bank of England, in November, actually

:12:15. > :12:17.upgraded the growth forecast for the year, which is good for the public

:12:18. > :12:26.finances. After having downgraded them Yes, so

:12:27. > :12:30.actually saying the economy this year would be performing better.

:12:31. > :12:33.But, as you say, Andrew, since then, economic forecasts have become

:12:34. > :12:37.gloomier. Some sand Brexit. The majority of that is because they

:12:38. > :12:44.believe Brexit and uncertainty will lead to lower growth. Let's look at

:12:45. > :12:48.suggestions for next year. The OBR in 2006 said growth next year would

:12:49. > :12:52.be 2.2%. But let's lack at what the Bank of England now believes next

:12:53. > :12:57.year will look at. They are saying quite a sharp downgrade, 1.4%. Of

:12:58. > :13:01.course, as ever, these are just forecasts, not definite facts that

:13:02. > :13:09.will happen. The Bank of England is now suggesting that overall, by the

:13:10. > :13:13.end of 2018, the economy will be 2.5% smaller than it would have been

:13:14. > :13:17.if we'd voted to stay in the European Union. I think we always

:13:18. > :13:21.need to say, though, Andrew, that it is not just Brexit, necessarily,

:13:22. > :13:25.there are other issues with the UK economy that are not connected to us

:13:26. > :13:28.leaving the European Union. Kemal, what about inflation? We

:13:29. > :13:34.haven't had much of that recently? We haven't. We have had a benign

:13:35. > :13:39.inflation situation in the UK, really since two years after the

:13:40. > :13:44.financial crisis of 2008-9. That situation is changing slowly. So

:13:45. > :13:52.let's have a look at that. This year, inflation at the moment is

:13:53. > :13:57.0.9%. That actually was a decline. But, the path is upwards and, the

:13:58. > :14:00.important bit today is we will see the predictions for inflation for

:14:01. > :14:05.next year. And this is where prices and the voters might start feeling

:14:06. > :14:10.the impact in their pocket. So, before the referendum in June, this

:14:11. > :14:15.is the Treasury's estimate of inflation for next year, 1.9%. An

:14:16. > :14:19.increase, but relatively modest. Right, let's look at what the Bank

:14:20. > :14:23.of England then has suggested. This, now, since the referendum result,

:14:24. > :14:26.since the stall in sterling and the fall in sterling has increased the

:14:27. > :14:33.costing of food and fuel imports into the UK. They believe, now,

:14:34. > :14:39.inflation will go up to 2.7%. Quite a rapid rise on that 0.9%. And that

:14:40. > :14:42.really raises this squeezed living standard issue, because wage

:14:43. > :14:47.inflation in the UK at the moment is running just about 2%. If inflation

:14:48. > :14:54.starts going above, that real incomes start falling. OK. We are

:14:55. > :14:59.going to give away a Daily Politics' mug for anybody who can tell us when

:15:00. > :15:01.the Bank of England got a inflation forecast back? Only one. All we can

:15:02. > :15:05.afford, it is tough times. Well, what's the story

:15:06. > :15:07.on the financial markets? Our Business Editor,

:15:08. > :15:17.Simon Jack, is in Markets can react quite violently to

:15:18. > :15:21.economic pronouncements. I was stood in this spot when this happened,

:15:22. > :15:24.post-referendum, the fall in the value of sterling and it has

:15:25. > :15:29.continued to be pretty volatile and moved down. That was a big surprise,

:15:30. > :15:33.the markets got that forecast catastrophically wrong. Today the

:15:34. > :15:38.question is how much scope there is for surprise. We are expecting

:15:39. > :15:42.slower growth, lower tax receipts, which means higher borrowing for the

:15:43. > :15:46.government. The more you borrow, the worse credit you are, the worse your

:15:47. > :15:52.credit rating is. And we have seen the price, the cost of government

:15:53. > :15:55.borrowing begin to creep up lately. So what are markets expecting today,

:15:56. > :16:03.what capacities do they have for shock? Big picture, you are braced

:16:04. > :16:06.for this, aren't you? Braced for some pretty bad news. Certainly

:16:07. > :16:11.braced for bad news, economic growth will be lower next year than had

:16:12. > :16:16.hitherto been forecast. Sterling is a lot weaker. We will see the impact

:16:17. > :16:21.of the inflationary effects of lower sterling come through. That will eat

:16:22. > :16:26.into people's spending power. So, we know that. We know that we are going

:16:27. > :16:31.to be borrowing more. And that means there's less room the Chancellor to

:16:32. > :16:35.give giveaways to the public to ease some of those concerns of lower

:16:36. > :16:40.growth, what that's going to mean for the man in the street. Before we

:16:41. > :16:44.talk about what he may or may not do, what he's got up his sleeve,

:16:45. > :16:48.some people may say we've had gloomy economic forecast before, we were

:16:49. > :16:51.promised a nightmare after the referendum, but in fact we are on

:16:52. > :16:57.target to hit pre-referendum growth targets for 2016 - 2017. You are

:16:58. > :17:03.absolutely right that the forecasts for this year's economic activity

:17:04. > :17:07.have been remarkably robust. What we haven't really seen is the impact of

:17:08. > :17:13.the decision to leave the EU. We are still part of it. It hasn't really

:17:14. > :17:16.weighed on consumer spending. Confidence is still reasonably

:17:17. > :17:22.robust. What we are likely to see into the future is more of the real

:17:23. > :17:26.impact as we trigger article 50 and we see consumers react to that

:17:27. > :17:30.higher inflation. Within the stock market there have been some movers,

:17:31. > :17:34.some big estate agents have seen their shares it as there is this

:17:35. > :17:39.measure to ban them charging tenants for extra fees, so we have seen some

:17:40. > :17:42.activity, what's been going on? That's right, there's always a

:17:43. > :17:47.little bit of leaking of what will be announced by the Chancellor had

:17:48. > :17:52.12:30pm. One of the things that he's announced if this move to stop

:17:53. > :17:56.tenants having to pay the fees, and to push that onto either the estate

:17:57. > :18:02.agents or the landlords. So that has hit the estate agents this morning.

:18:03. > :18:06.Thanks, Sue. We'll be catching up with you again. Countrywide and

:18:07. > :18:10.Foxton is both seeing sharp falls in share prices and we are seeing some

:18:11. > :18:15.market reaction to what we are expecting in the budget. The pound

:18:16. > :18:17.is very stable at the moment. Does it have the capacity to shock? Let's

:18:18. > :18:24.see. Of course when the share price of

:18:25. > :18:27.estate agent falls, the nation is in mourning. What about the wide

:18:28. > :18:29.economy? Jo Coburn is in Portsmouth for us

:18:30. > :18:39.today, gauging business reaction Yes, Andrew, I'm a Land Rover BA

:18:40. > :18:42.are, here where they are building this rather amazing catamaran which

:18:43. > :18:48.is going to be ready to hit the waters around Bermuda by next

:18:49. > :18:53.spring. All sounds very exotic. Let's talk to the man who runs the

:18:54. > :18:56.show, Martin Whitmarsh. The Chancellor has said he wants to make

:18:57. > :19:01.the economy watertight, excuse the pun, in the event of choppy waters

:19:02. > :19:05.ahead. What would you like to hear from him? We don't like some

:19:06. > :19:08.certainty post Brexit but what we mustn't do in the clamour for

:19:09. > :19:12.certainty is compromise the government. They've got to get the

:19:13. > :19:17.best deal they can for the economy. In the meanwhile be only thing that

:19:18. > :19:23.we can have that encourages investment in RND, any tax break

:19:24. > :19:28.enables companies to have the confidence to invest, that would be

:19:29. > :19:32.the most positive thing we could have delivered this afternoon. Is

:19:33. > :19:36.there evidence that businesses are holding onto their cash and waiting

:19:37. > :19:41.before they actually use or invest in projects? I think all of the

:19:42. > :19:47.volatility post Brexit, the exchange rate, that has caused everyone a bit

:19:48. > :19:50.of a slow up. We sense it in our partners and these big companies

:19:51. > :19:53.that invest in our programme. They are just wondering what direction we

:19:54. > :19:58.are going to go and how they conserve a bit of cash through

:19:59. > :20:02.whatever challenges they have. We've got to live with it. It's how it is.

:20:03. > :20:07.In the meanwhile anything that could stabilise that, give us some

:20:08. > :20:09.confidence that we can invest and certainly have our partners invest

:20:10. > :20:14.in research and development, marketing and infrastructure. Martin

:20:15. > :20:18.Whitmarsh, thank you very much. And that is the theme of the people we

:20:19. > :20:22.will be talking to down here. While they may see the Brexit world as an

:20:23. > :20:26.opportunity, they would like to see some certainty so they can make

:20:27. > :20:30.decisions about investment for the future, or investing in new staff,

:20:31. > :20:33.trying to recruit people with the right sorts of skills. I'll be

:20:34. > :20:38.talking to businesses here in Portsmouth large and small about

:20:39. > :20:46.what they are looking for from Philip Hammond. You run an online

:20:47. > :20:49.cashmere company, wearing one of their beautiful scarves. What would

:20:50. > :20:56.you I to hear from Philip Hammond? The obvious things like the

:20:57. > :21:01.alliance, increasing or reducing the VAT, and corporation tax being

:21:02. > :21:04.reduced. And then we need a plan. There are lots of big companies out

:21:05. > :21:09.there that have teams of people that are managing the whole pre-empting

:21:10. > :21:15.of Brexit. We are not, there are ten of us. Working away and not knowing

:21:16. > :21:19.what to do next. I've got a January strategy meeting. I'd like to know

:21:20. > :21:24.what countries that we are looking at to export to. So at the moment we

:21:25. > :21:29.are doing 50% to a domestic audience, selling online, 50% of our

:21:30. > :21:33.business is export. Has that been helped by the fall in the value of

:21:34. > :21:39.the pound? Massively, the Americans are buying from us in droves at the

:21:40. > :21:42.moment. Around Brexit there was nervousness, some brand GB

:21:43. > :21:45.uncertainty and that did not help us. That was the only month

:21:46. > :21:49.Marseille when we saw a dip in growth. But we kind of need to know

:21:50. > :21:53.basically what's going to happen next. I don't spec them to show

:21:54. > :21:58.their hand completely but it would be nice to know whether we should

:21:59. > :22:05.continue targeting export or rein it in and look at the domestic market.

:22:06. > :22:09.Thank you. Let's hear from our personal finance expert with what

:22:10. > :22:13.she has for the day here in Portsmouth. We already have some

:22:14. > :22:15.details from the Treasury about what you can expect from the Chancellor

:22:16. > :22:20.which will affect your personal finances. He's going to reduce the

:22:21. > :22:25.rate at which benefits are withdrawn for people when they start work. At

:22:26. > :22:29.the moment if you get universal credit, then once you reach a

:22:30. > :22:36.certain amount of earnings, 65p per every ?1 you burn is taken away,

:22:37. > :22:40.that's going to go down to 63p. The National Living Wage paid to people

:22:41. > :22:47.aged 25 and over will also be increased in April from ?7.20 to

:22:48. > :22:53.?7.50. Although that is lower than other people out. A decrease in fuel

:22:54. > :22:57.duty and passenger air duty may also be looked at, making the cost of

:22:58. > :23:05.holidays cheap. You can get in touch in many different ways.

:23:06. > :23:19.Andrew. Thanks, Ruth. Joanna Gosling is outside the House of Commons.

:23:20. > :23:24.Thank you. With me Oliver Dowden, Tory MP and Jonathan Reynolds, the

:23:25. > :23:27.shadow economic Secretary. Thank you both for joining us. Oliver Dowden,

:23:28. > :23:31.when the Chancellor talks about eye watering Lee high public debt

:23:32. > :23:36.levels, can he afford to be doing anything intimate of helping people?

:23:37. > :23:40.It is important the Chancellor sticks with a plan that has been

:23:41. > :23:44.working. We have reduced borrowing by two thirds, created 3 million

:23:45. > :23:48.jobs. I want to see him continue to do that. He is not sticking with the

:23:49. > :23:52.plan, is he? The plan has changed. The original plan was to be in

:23:53. > :23:55.surplus by the end of the parliament, that has gone. It

:23:56. > :23:59.continues to be the plan to reduce the deficit year on year. It is

:24:00. > :24:03.important that we continue to have that confidence. At the same time

:24:04. > :24:07.their escape, because we have taken difficult decisions through the last

:24:08. > :24:11.Parliament, to show some flexibility so we are properly prepared for the

:24:12. > :24:18.challenges that face us in years ahead. I'm particularly interested

:24:19. > :24:20.in what the Chancellor will be doing around infrastructure, making sure

:24:21. > :24:23.we've got the roads and railways in place, so we match fit and ready for

:24:24. > :24:27.when Britain leaves the European Union. How do you see the challenges

:24:28. > :24:31.facing the Chancellor? The first plan was to clear the deficit before

:24:32. > :24:35.the end the last Parliament, clearly that hasn't happened and we've had

:24:36. > :24:40.six wasted years. We need a plan to make sure this company is

:24:41. > :24:42.successful. Post Brexit that is more challenging. It is not about

:24:43. > :24:46.gimmicks and bits of money here and there, it is about a serious new set

:24:47. > :24:50.of fiscal rules that allow investment to take place. Bring down

:24:51. > :24:56.the day-to-day spending to equal the taxes coming in, but do the rules so

:24:57. > :24:58.investment can take place. When you say six wasted years in terms of

:24:59. > :25:04.paying down the deficit, and looking ahead to more uncertainty, what is

:25:05. > :25:12.your answer? It sounds like more spending. Not spending on the costs

:25:13. > :25:16.of failure. What would you spend on? Bridges, railways, the energy

:25:17. > :25:20.system, broadband connections. But we want fiscal rules that will allow

:25:21. > :25:26.people to do that. On the measures the Chancellor could introduce,

:25:27. > :25:31.there has been lots of talk about Jams, the big news today seems to be

:25:32. > :25:35.that cuts to universal credit will go ahead, the working poor who go

:25:36. > :25:40.out and earn a low wage will be hit. Fiscal rules, in terms of how you

:25:41. > :25:45.diverged, just describe what you would identify the fiscal rules to

:25:46. > :25:51.be in a nutshell. Labour would like a focus on the deficit, the things

:25:52. > :25:56.the government spends money on, but excluding investment. So you take

:25:57. > :26:00.out, you don't borrow for day-to-day spending. What would the target

:26:01. > :26:04.beyond cutting the deficit? Over a five-year rolling period, you have

:26:05. > :26:10.to get it down on day-to-day spending, but why include investment

:26:11. > :26:16.spending? Does that add up? Jonathan talks very reasonably about this but

:26:17. > :26:19.his boss, the Shadow Chancellor, is proposing ?500 billion of additional

:26:20. > :26:24.spending, an extraordinary about of money. There is no fiscal

:26:25. > :26:26.discipline. The contrast with us, because we made those difficult

:26:27. > :26:30.decisions to the Parliament, it gives us scope to have more

:26:31. > :26:35.flexibility as we face Brexit to invest in infrastructure, and help

:26:36. > :26:38.struggling people to get by. To be clear on what Oliver has said,

:26:39. > :26:48.Oliver is adding capital investment over ten years and adding an extra

:26:49. > :26:55.?250 billion. Your national infrastructure plan is for ?483

:26:56. > :26:58.billion. Capital spending plus leveraging from the private markets

:26:59. > :27:02.for a national investment bank. All of that spending is against the

:27:03. > :27:09.backdrop, with a figure of ?1.6 trillion of UK debt, the picture

:27:10. > :27:13.will just get worse, won't it? That's the situation we are in. When

:27:14. > :27:19.they said we had to bring the deficit down in one Parliament, they

:27:20. > :27:25.ignored economic advice and this is what has happened. We are right out

:27:26. > :27:32.of time. Thank you both. STUDIO: Thanks. A lot of talk of fiscal

:27:33. > :27:35.rules, there. Mr Hammond may have some fiscal rules of his own. There

:27:36. > :27:44.have been 12 fiscal rules since 1997, ten of them have been broken.

:27:45. > :27:49.There is expert analysis on the website.

:27:50. > :27:52.And if you're on Twitter you can join the conversation

:27:53. > :28:02.There's our live shot of Big Ben, there, two minutes to 12. Very soon

:28:03. > :28:04.we'll be going over as we always do on Wednesday to the House of Commons

:28:05. > :28:10.for prime ministers questions. And that will be followed

:28:11. > :28:18.by the chancellor's statement. Always a beautiful picture of

:28:19. > :28:23.Westminster, there. Laura, a difficult one for the Chancellor

:28:24. > :28:28.because he has to base what he tells us today on forecasts lovably

:28:29. > :28:34.roughly the consensus forecast that we heard from the city, from people

:28:35. > :28:38.who, in the past, have been wrong in their forecasts. Indeed, and on

:28:39. > :28:42.these big set piece days when you get the Treasury's big statements,

:28:43. > :28:46.even though they use independent numbers from the Office for Budget

:28:47. > :28:49.Responsibility, he is to do and then knowing his audience is deeply

:28:50. > :28:54.sceptical about what is being put forward. He has to base it on that.

:28:55. > :28:57.Particularly for the Treasury, who take quite a downbeat view on what

:28:58. > :29:02.the uncertainty around Brexit will mean, it is extreme the difficult

:29:03. > :29:07.for them to stand up and not sound like the world is about to come to

:29:08. > :29:10.an end, but at the same time... One of the interesting things about

:29:11. > :29:15.Philip Hammond has been in the last few months, he is certainly not a

:29:16. > :29:19.flashy politician, not somebody who enjoys hogging the limelight. But in

:29:20. > :29:23.his own downbeat way he has had some quite extraordinary things. He has

:29:24. > :29:27.said that we are in for a roller-coaster, he has said debt is

:29:28. > :29:31.at eye watering levels. How does he calibrate that with wanting to

:29:32. > :29:37.present a steady, cautious course which is what we are all told that

:29:38. > :29:41.he will put forward. I think the issue will be when and if the

:29:42. > :29:44.government will balance its books. It has been interesting that Theresa

:29:45. > :29:49.May has talked about still hitting a surplus, ie the government earns

:29:50. > :29:52.more than it spends. Philip Hammond has been much more careful, he has

:29:53. > :29:57.only talked about balancing the books. However it happens, and you

:29:58. > :30:02.are right, forecasts are only that, but they do show a pathway. And

:30:03. > :30:08.although the direct, precise numbers may not be hit in the end, they show

:30:09. > :30:13.this kind of journey that the country's economy is on, and Philip

:30:14. > :30:16.Hammond has to take on board what that forecast says. What will be

:30:17. > :30:21.fascinating is what the Office for Budget Responsibility says about

:30:22. > :30:25.Brexit, how much of the effect on the economy, if there is an effect

:30:26. > :30:30.on the year, me, as we leave the European Union, is down to the

:30:31. > :30:33.issue, and how much is it down to all the other issues that the

:30:34. > :30:39.economy is grappling with anyway. That will be one of the key issues

:30:40. > :30:41.to look for, what the OBR says about Brexit, what the government needs to

:30:42. > :30:46.borrow extra to account for that, and other issues, and also what the

:30:47. > :30:51.overall debt position will be. The Treasury is certainly clear that

:30:52. > :30:52.that debt position is going to be a very, very big number that is going

:30:53. > :31:04.to be pretty frightening. And it'll not be the headline that

:31:05. > :31:07.everybody gets, it'll be the Budget bubbling, their big numbers that

:31:08. > :31:09.will dominate the debate. Well, let's go straight over to the House

:31:10. > :31:12.of Commons for Prime Minister's Questions.

:31:13. > :31:15.Number one, please, Mr Speaker. Mr Speaker, this morning I had

:31:16. > :31:19.meetings with ministerial colleagues and others n addition to my duties

:31:20. > :31:20.in this House, I shall have further such meetings later

:31:21. > :31:24.in this House, I shall have further such meetings later today.

:31:25. > :31:30.Thank you, Mr Speaker. A report recently produced by a number of

:31:31. > :31:33.organisations, including guy Gingerbread and sit zeens advice in

:31:34. > :31:37.Fife found one-third of families that should have been claiming child

:31:38. > :31:41.maintenance support did not apply but a major barrier to application

:31:42. > :31:47.was the ?20 application fee and that the 4% collection fee had a serious

:31:48. > :31:51.impact on family budgets. Will the Prime Minister undertake to review

:31:52. > :31:56.these unfair charges? The issues of trying to ensure that those who are

:31:57. > :32:01.responsible for children tally pay for their children when a family has

:32:02. > :32:04.broken up has been one that is a long-standing question which this

:32:05. > :32:07.House has addressed. There have been various ways of dealing with it

:32:08. > :32:09.through the agency that has been responsible. I think it is right

:32:10. > :32:13.that the changes have that been introduced are on a more level basis

:32:14. > :32:20.and that more people are able to access the support that they need as

:32:21. > :32:23.a result. The Government is rightly focussed on economic growth, jobs

:32:24. > :32:29.and prosperity, something that all of us on these benches can get

:32:30. > :32:40.behind. With that in mind, will she back our highly-competitive bid for

:32:41. > :32:43.funding for the north-west relief road in Shrewsbury which will

:32:44. > :32:48.relieve the congestion our town is facing but dove-tail into that

:32:49. > :32:51.narrative I know that relief road has been an issue that is of

:32:52. > :32:56.particular concern to him and a priority for him and has received

:32:57. > :33:00.local backing. I understand the a bid has been put in for feesibility

:33:01. > :33:05.funding so a business case can be prepared for the scheme. What I can

:33:06. > :33:08.say at the moment, the announcement of the successful bids for

:33:09. > :33:17.feasibility funding is expected very shortly indeed. THE SPEAKER: Jeremy

:33:18. > :33:23.Corbyn. Thank you, Mr Speaker. Thank you, Mr Speaker. The Government's

:33:24. > :33:28.sustainability and transformation plans for the National Health

:33:29. > :33:34.Service hide ?22 billion of cuts from our service, according to

:33:35. > :33:37.research by the BMA. That risks and I quote, "Starving services of

:33:38. > :33:42.resources and patients of vital care." That comes from Dr Mark

:33:43. > :33:49.Porter of the BMA. When he calls this process a mess,

:33:50. > :33:53.where is he wrong? The National Health Service is

:33:54. > :34:00.indeed looking for savings within the NHS which will be reinvested in

:34:01. > :34:02.the NHS. And I would remind the right

:34:03. > :34:07.honourable gentleman it is this Government that is providing, not

:34:08. > :34:12.just the ?8 billion of extra funding the NHS requested but ?10 billion of

:34:13. > :34:15.extra funding requested by the National Health Service and the

:34:16. > :34:19.sustainability and transformation plans are being developed at local

:34:20. > :34:24.levels, in the interests of local people by local clinicians.

:34:25. > :34:30.It's very strange the Prime Minister should say, that Mr Speaker, because

:34:31. > :34:36.the Health Select Committee, chaired by the honourable friend the member

:34:37. > :34:40.for Totnes says it is ?4.5 billion, not ?10 billion. There is quite a

:34:41. > :34:44.big difference there. Mr Speaker, part of the reason for the strain on

:34:45. > :34:46.the National Health Service is more than 1 million people are not

:34:47. > :34:51.receiving the social care that they need. As a result of this, there has

:34:52. > :34:55.been an increase in emergency admissions for older patients.

:34:56. > :35:07.Margaret wrote to me this week saying... It's not funny.

:35:08. > :35:11.She described how her 89-year-old mother suffered two falls, leading

:35:12. > :35:17.to hospital admissions, due to the lack of nursing care and went on to

:35:18. > :35:23.say, "My mother is worth more than this." What action will the Prime

:35:24. > :35:27.Minister take to stop the neglect of older people, which ends up forcing

:35:28. > :35:32.them to take A admissions when they should be cared for, at home or

:35:33. > :35:36.in a care home? Well, of course social care is an

:35:37. > :35:40.area of concern and social care is a key issue for many people. That's

:35:41. > :35:46.why the Government has introduced the Better Care Fund and why the

:35:47. > :35:49.Government has introduced the Social Care precept for local authorities

:35:50. > :35:53.and we are encouraged the working together of the health service and

:35:54. > :35:57.local authorities to deal with precisely the issues he has raised

:35:58. > :36:02.on social care and bedblocking. But I will just say this to the right

:36:03. > :36:05.honourable gentleman. We've introduced the Better Fund and

:36:06. > :36:17.social care precept. Let's look at what Labour did in their 13 years.

:36:18. > :36:22.They said they'd deal with social care in the 97 manifesto. Introduced

:36:23. > :36:33.a Royal Commission in 1999. A Greene Paper in 2005. A review in 2006.

:36:34. > :36:39.Another Paper in 2007, and another green Paper in 2009. Three years and

:36:40. > :36:44.they did nothing. Mr Speaker, as the Prime Minister

:36:45. > :36:54.well knows, health spending trebled under the last Labour Government.

:36:55. > :37:01.And the levels of satisfaction with the National Health Service were at

:37:02. > :37:07.their highest, ever, in 2010. This Government's choice was to cut

:37:08. > :37:12.social care by 4.6 billion pounds in the last Parliament. At the same

:37:13. > :37:19.time, as they found the space, shall we say, to cut billions in corporate

:37:20. > :37:24.taxation bills. That means it's affecting patients leaving hospital

:37:25. > :37:28.as well. In the last four years, the number of patients unable to be

:37:29. > :37:35.transferred from hospital, due to the lack of adequate social care,

:37:36. > :37:38.has increased by one-third. Will the Prime Minister ensure her Government

:37:39. > :37:45.guarantees all of our elderly people, the dignity they deserve?

:37:46. > :37:48.I recognise the importance of caring for elderly people and providing

:37:49. > :37:53.them with the dignity that they deserve. He says that this

:37:54. > :37:57.Government has done nothing on social care, I repeat, we have

:37:58. > :38:01.introduced the social care preset, that is being made use of by my

:38:02. > :38:06.local authority and by his local authority. We have also introduced

:38:07. > :38:11.the Better Care Fund. He talks about support for elderly people. Which

:38:12. > :38:15.Government is it that has put the triple lock in place for pensioners,

:38:16. > :38:19.to ensure the largest increase in pensions for elderly people. The

:38:20. > :38:21.precept is a drop in the ocean compared to what is necessary for

:38:22. > :38:26.social care. I will give you an example, Mr

:38:27. > :38:30.Speaker, the whole House I'm sure would have been appalled in the

:38:31. > :38:35.revelations in the BBC Panorama programme this week, showing older

:38:36. > :38:42.people systematically mistreated. The Care Quality Commission's

:38:43. > :38:45.assessment that care homes, run by the Mall, ey Group require

:38:46. > :38:50.improvement and have issued notices. The commission goes on to say that

:38:51. > :38:53.the owner has allowed sfrs to deteriorate further and has "Utterly

:38:54. > :38:57.neglected the duty of care to the residents of these homes." What

:38:58. > :39:04.action is her Government going to take to protect the residents of

:39:05. > :39:07.those homes? The right honourable gentleman raises the issue of the

:39:08. > :39:10.quality of care that is provided in homes and the way in which elderly

:39:11. > :39:14.people are treated. I'm sure everybody is appalled when we see

:39:15. > :39:17.examples of poor and terrible treatment that is be given to

:39:18. > :39:23.elderly and vulnerable people in care homes. What we do about it is

:39:24. > :39:28.ensure that we have the CQC, which is able it step in, which takes

:39:29. > :39:31.action, which has powers to make sure that nobody, nobody in the

:39:32. > :39:35.chain of responsibility is immune from legal accountability but we

:39:36. > :39:40.know that there is more that can be done and that's why the CQC is

:39:41. > :39:43.looking into ways in which it can improve its processes, increase its

:39:44. > :39:48.efficiency. My honourable friend, the minister for community health

:39:49. > :39:54.and care is going to be writing to the CQC shortly, to look at how we

:39:55. > :39:58.can seek to improve what they do. It is the CQC that deals with these

:39:59. > :40:03.issues, we have that in place. Is there more we can do? Yes. And we

:40:04. > :40:08.are doing it. Mr Speaker, the problem seems to be that that home

:40:09. > :40:11.was understaffed and we shouldn't be blamingp often underpaid and

:40:12. > :40:15.hard-pressed care workers, he with should be ensuring there are enough

:40:16. > :40:18.of them, properly paid in all of those homes. There was a serious

:40:19. > :40:27.problem of understaffing and it was the last Labour Government that

:40:28. > :40:30.established the CQC. I think a warning notice is insufficient. We

:40:31. > :40:34.stronger action. Yesterday the Government proposed patients may

:40:35. > :40:38.have to show passports or other ID to access non-emergency health care.

:40:39. > :40:43.Has the Government considered that the impact of this on elderly

:40:44. > :40:49.people? The last census showed us 9.5 million people in this country

:40:50. > :40:52.don't have passports. Rather than distracting people with divisive and

:40:53. > :40:56.impractical policies, could the Prime Minister provide the NHS and

:40:57. > :41:02.social care with the money this it needs to care for the people who

:41:03. > :41:07.need the support? Over the course of this Parliament, the Government will

:41:08. > :41:12.be spending half a trillion pounds on the national health service. The

:41:13. > :41:16.right honourable gentleman asks about a process to ensure that

:41:17. > :41:21.people who are receiving NHS treatment are entitled to receive

:41:22. > :41:26.that NHS treatment. For many years there has been a concern about

:41:27. > :41:29.health tourism, about people turning up in the UK, accessing health

:41:30. > :41:37.services and not paying for them. We want it make sure that those who are

:41:38. > :41:41.entitled to use the services are indeed able to have those free at

:41:42. > :41:44.the point of delivery but we deal with health tourism and those who

:41:45. > :41:49.should be paying for the use of our health service. Mr Speaker, Sir

:41:50. > :41:54.Simon Stevens told us two weeks ago that the next three years are going

:41:55. > :41:58.to be the toughest ever for NHS funding and that 2018 would see

:41:59. > :42:05.health spending per person cut for the first time ever in this country.

:42:06. > :42:10.. The NAO reported that the cost of health tourism is over 100 times

:42:11. > :42:14.less than the ?22 billion of cuts the NHS is facing from this

:42:15. > :42:18.Government. The reality is, Mr Speaker, under this Government,

:42:19. > :42:25.there are 6,000 fewer mental health nurses. There are a record 3.9

:42:26. > :42:29.million people on NHS waiting lists. All of us who visit A departments

:42:30. > :42:34.know the stress the staff are under and that the waiting time is getting

:42:35. > :42:38.longer and longer and that there are 1 million people in this country not

:42:39. > :42:43.receiving the social care that they need. So, instead of looking for

:42:44. > :42:47.excuses and scapegoats, shouldn't the Prime Minister be ensuring that

:42:48. > :42:52.health and social care is properly resourced and properly funded to

:42:53. > :42:57.take away the stress and fear that people face in old age, over social

:42:58. > :43:05.care and the stress that is placed on our very hard-working NHS and

:43:06. > :43:10.social care staff? Billions of pounds extra into social care

:43:11. > :43:14.through the social care precept and the Better Care Fund. Half a

:43:15. > :43:17.trillion being spented on the National Health Service. A record

:43:18. > :43:23.level of investment in mental health in the National Health Service. THE

:43:24. > :43:27.SPEAKER: Order. Members must not shout down or attempt to shout down

:43:28. > :43:30.the Prime Minister. The question has been asked and it was heard and the

:43:31. > :43:33.answer must be heard. The Prime Minister.

:43:34. > :43:36.Well, there is a fundamental point that the right honourable gentleman

:43:37. > :43:42.refrains from mentioning, and it is this: We can only afford to pay for

:43:43. > :43:46.the National Health Service and for social care if we have a strong

:43:47. > :43:50.economy, creating wealth. And that's precisely what he is going to hear

:43:51. > :43:59.Chancellor of the Exchequer in a few minutes' time. Thank you, Mr

:44:00. > :44:05.Speaker. On the 23rd June, my constituents voted by a margin of

:44:06. > :44:14.62% to 38% to leave the European Union.

:44:15. > :44:18.Many of those people are unhappy and frustrated at what they see are

:44:19. > :44:22.delaying tactics by some remainers who don't seem to understand the

:44:23. > :44:25.meaning of the word democracy. THE SPEAKER: Order, this is very

:44:26. > :44:30.discourteous. The honourable gentleman has a legitimate question

:44:31. > :44:33.and that question and every other question should be fully and with

:44:34. > :44:39.politeness, heard. The honourable gentleman.

:44:40. > :44:47.Thank you, Mr Speaker. I will repeat it. Remainers who

:44:48. > :44:52.don't seem to understand the meaning of the word "democracy" which I

:44:53. > :44:55.would remind them, government by the people, especially rule of the

:44:56. > :44:58.majority. With that in mind, what reassurance can my right honourable

:44:59. > :44:59.friend give my constituents and me that Article 50 will be triggered by

:45:00. > :45:14.March next year? That we will trigger article 50 by

:45:15. > :45:20.March next year. My honourable friend is right. The referendum was

:45:21. > :45:24.decided by this Parliament 6-1 that people should have the opportunity

:45:25. > :45:28.to vote on membership of the European Union, the vote was held,

:45:29. > :45:31.the turnout was high, public gave their verdict. There must be no

:45:32. > :45:34.second referendum, no attempt to weasel out of it, this is the

:45:35. > :45:40.government that will deliver on the vote of the British people. Mr

:45:41. > :45:44.Speaker, we on these benches have repeatedly brought up the

:45:45. > :45:51.devastating impact on disabled people from the UK benefits system.

:45:52. > :45:54.The government plans to cut support for people with long-term health

:45:55. > :45:59.difficulties by ?30 per week. Last week might SNP colleague proposed a

:46:00. > :46:04.motion which was passed by this house with support from both Labour

:46:05. > :46:09.and Conservative members for these cuts to be postponed. Will the Prime

:46:10. > :46:13.Minister act on the vote of this house? Let me say to the Right

:46:14. > :46:18.Honourable gentleman what we've been doing in relation to benefits for

:46:19. > :46:23.disabled people. The overall funding for disability benefits will be

:46:24. > :46:26.higher in every year up to 2020 than it was in 2010. We have been

:46:27. > :46:31.focusing support on those who most need it, those who are not able to

:46:32. > :46:34.get into the workplace. For those who are able at some stage to get

:46:35. > :46:39.into the workplace we have been providing a wider package of

:46:40. > :46:43.support. I'm pleased to say over the last three years nearly 600,000 more

:46:44. > :46:46.disabled people are in the workplace with the dignity of having a job,

:46:47. > :46:52.which is what many people with disabilities want to have. We are

:46:53. > :46:55.focusing on help for those who need it and helping those that want to

:46:56. > :47:00.get into the workplace to do that. It was widely trailed that the Prime

:47:01. > :47:04.Minister will make changes impacting on benefit recipients in work, will

:47:05. > :47:08.the Prime Minister confirmed she has no intention of helping people with

:47:09. > :47:13.disabilities and medical conditions? Why should people who are unable to

:47:14. > :47:17.earn a living it punished for their disability or illness by losing ?30

:47:18. > :47:21.a week? Does she have any intention of changing that. I have just set

:47:22. > :47:26.out for the right honourable gentleman the ways in which we are

:47:27. > :47:32.providing support and help for those people who have disabilities. As I

:47:33. > :47:35.said, the overall funding for spending on disability benefits will

:47:36. > :47:39.be higher in every year to 2020 than it was in 2010. What it is also

:47:40. > :47:43.important to recognise that when we give support for people with

:47:44. > :47:47.disabilities it isn't simply about the benefits system and how much

:47:48. > :47:52.money they are given, for those who are able to get into work, and on

:47:53. > :47:56.that part of the EASA, we provide packages that are outside benefits

:47:57. > :48:00.as well, as we recognise that people want the dignity of getting into the

:48:01. > :48:11.workplace. That's what we are helping people with disabilities who

:48:12. > :48:16.can work to do. Simon Burns. Will my right honourable friend agree that

:48:17. > :48:20.thousands of road commuters, including many of my constituents

:48:21. > :48:27.who use the a 12, are travelling on roads that need to be repaired and

:48:28. > :48:31.upgraded? To improve connectivity and to speed up daily commute times,

:48:32. > :48:38.would my right honourable friend accept that the proposed ?1.3

:48:39. > :48:44.billion investment in improving our road network is warmly welcomed and

:48:45. > :48:51.will do a great deal to enhance connectivity in the country? My

:48:52. > :48:56.honourable friend is absolutely right. The importance of

:48:57. > :49:01.infrastructure expenditure in helping to deal with the issue of

:49:02. > :49:05.productivity in our economy, and I'm pleased that that ?1.3 billion for

:49:06. > :49:09.new roads does show us investing in the long-term future for Britain. It

:49:10. > :49:13.is about delivering jobs, delivering economic growth, it is about making

:49:14. > :49:18.sure that this is an economy that works for everyone. It's just one

:49:19. > :49:21.part of the package that we are proposing. Of course my right

:49:22. > :49:28.honourable friend the Chancellor will be setting our proposals out

:49:29. > :49:34.more clearly in a few minutes time. One of my constituents is imprisoned

:49:35. > :49:37.in Iran. A British national has been separated from her husband and her

:49:38. > :49:43.two-year-old daughter for eight months now. She has been on hunger

:49:44. > :49:47.strike and is now suicidal. The Prime Minister needs to reunite this

:49:48. > :49:58.mother, this daughter, this wife with her family. Mr Speaker, will it

:49:59. > :50:03.take her death for the government to start taking her seriously?

:50:04. > :50:06.Obviously this is a very difficult time for the whole family and I'm

:50:07. > :50:13.sure we are all concerned about the reports of the impact that detention

:50:14. > :50:21.is having on her health as she is in detention in Errani. This has been

:50:22. > :50:27.repeatedly raised with the Iranians government. I personally raised it

:50:28. > :50:30.on the 20th of September in New York when I stressed the importance of

:50:31. > :50:41.finding a resolution as soon as possible. I have requested

:50:42. > :50:48.assurances that Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe will be allowed

:50:49. > :50:53.representation and contact with her family. The British government

:50:54. > :50:58.remains ready to help bringing Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe's daughter back to

:50:59. > :51:01.Britain if that is the request. Does my right honourable friend that most

:51:02. > :51:08.of our social problems are either caused or aggravated by the acute

:51:09. > :51:12.shortage of housing? So even if, as I hope, we managed to reduce the net

:51:13. > :51:17.immigration to this country, we will have to build far more new homes. So

:51:18. > :51:20.isn't the decision, the recommendation by the European

:51:21. > :51:27.banking authority, to increase by 50% the reserves banks must hold

:51:28. > :51:30.against house-building, making it even more costly for them to land

:51:31. > :51:39.for housing than for unsecured credit cards, profoundly unhelpful

:51:40. > :51:43.and perverse? Well I'm sure my right honourable friend will recognise

:51:44. > :51:47.that we, of course, are subject to our own regulation authorities. The

:51:48. > :51:50.point he makes about the importance of house-building is absolutely

:51:51. > :51:54.correct, we do need to build more homes. That is something the

:51:55. > :51:59.government has been doing, we've seen something like 900,000 new

:52:00. > :52:04.homes built since 2010, but there is more for us to do and that is what

:52:05. > :52:07.this government is working on. Brexit secretary and the Foreign

:52:08. > :52:14.Secretary are described by a senior German politician as having no idea

:52:15. > :52:20.what Brexit really means. The Times reports today that EU ambassadors

:52:21. > :52:26.think the Foreign Secretary's more colourful outbursts are damaging our

:52:27. > :52:30.relationship with member states. When is the Prime Minister going to

:52:31. > :52:35.get a grip on her ministers and when is she going to demonstrate to the

:52:36. > :52:44.country and to our EU colleagues that she has a coherent, workable

:52:45. > :52:47.plan for Brexit? I've been very clear in this house on many

:52:48. > :52:52.occasions about the plan that we have for Brexit. Crucially we will

:52:53. > :52:55.be leaving the European Union and we will be triggering article 50 by the

:52:56. > :53:00.end of March next year and that's when the formal negotiations will

:53:01. > :53:03.start. But it is absolutely right that we do not set out, at this

:53:04. > :53:07.stage, every single detail of our proposed negotiating strategy,

:53:08. > :53:14.because that would be the best way to get the worst possible deal for

:53:15. > :53:20.Britain. As we leave the European Union, maintaining the UK's cutting

:53:21. > :53:22.edge in world leadership in scientific and technological

:53:23. > :53:27.discovery is of paramount importance to our industries and universities.

:53:28. > :53:30.Can I welcome the Prime Minister's announcement that each year we will

:53:31. > :53:34.invest a further ?2 billion in investment and of element to boost

:53:35. > :53:39.our science and engineering base. Isn't this just the type of vital

:53:40. > :53:43.support that our businesses and researchers need, rather than the

:53:44. > :53:45.threats from the Labour Party to slash the research and development

:53:46. > :53:51.tax credits that would hamper innovation and harm our economy? My

:53:52. > :53:54.right honourable friend is absolutely right. The extra

:53:55. > :53:59.investment we will be putting into research and development is a

:54:00. > :54:02.crucial part of the long-term task we have of ensuring that we have the

:54:03. > :54:08.economy and the growth and prosperity in this country that we

:54:09. > :54:12.need. The new funds will be able to put us at the cutting edge of

:54:13. > :54:17.scientific discovery, which I saw for myself, we are already doing

:54:18. > :54:22.this. I was at the Wellcome genomics campus in Cambridge on Monday, able

:54:23. > :54:26.to see the really exciting, really transformational work that is being

:54:27. > :54:29.done, coming out of the knowledge base and scientific research here in

:54:30. > :54:35.the United Kingdom. We want to see more of that and that is why we will

:54:36. > :54:40.be reinvesting in it. Aleppo's hospitals are destroyed, Syrians who

:54:41. > :54:46.avoid the barrel bombs and chlorine gas are starving from the Russian

:54:47. > :54:53.blockade. We must do more. So will she revisit the prospect for a

:54:54. > :54:58.strops, and will she looked at backing the campaign to stop this

:54:59. > :55:07.daily perpetrator of war crimes of stripping them of its right to hold

:55:08. > :55:10.the 2018 World Cup -- will she revisit the prospect of aid drops.

:55:11. > :55:13.The honourable gentleman is correct to raise the appalling itches taking

:55:14. > :55:17.place in Aleppo and it is right that we, along with our international

:55:18. > :55:22.allies, should be doing all we can to bring this to a stop. He will

:55:23. > :55:26.recognise that the issue of who hosts sporting events is not in the

:55:27. > :55:28.government's remit. What we are doing is working with our

:55:29. > :55:33.international allies to put more pressure on Russia to stop the

:55:34. > :55:39.appalling atrocities, the appalling attacks taking place in Aleppo. What

:55:40. > :55:44.we want to see is an agreement for a political transition to a Syria

:55:45. > :55:48.without President Assad. Does my right honourable friend agree that

:55:49. > :55:52.if the UK is to remain competitive, and our citizens are to enjoy the

:55:53. > :55:56.benefits of a digital revolution, it is essential that we should be at

:55:57. > :56:01.the forefront of deployment of both ultra fast broadband and five G

:56:02. > :56:07.mobile connectivity? Can I therefore welcome the announcement that we are

:56:08. > :56:12.led to believe may be made shortly of a ?1 billion investment to

:56:13. > :56:17.achieve this. Well, my right honourable friend will, of course,

:56:18. > :56:21.be waiting in anticipation for my right honourable friend the

:56:22. > :56:24.Chancellor's Autumn Statement, but he's absolutely right that as we

:56:25. > :56:29.look at improving collectivity in this country, as we look to the

:56:30. > :56:32.economy of the future, the provision of superfast broadband, the

:56:33. > :56:35.provision of those new technological opportunities for people is

:56:36. > :56:39.absolutely a crucial part of that, and that is something this

:56:40. > :56:44.government recognises and will act on. One day last week four police

:56:45. > :56:49.officers in my constituency were assaulted over a single 24 hour

:56:50. > :56:52.period. There are over 23,000 assaults on police officers last

:56:53. > :56:57.year. An assault on a police officer is an assault on society. What will

:56:58. > :57:00.the Prime Minister do to make sure the toughest deterrence are in place

:57:01. > :57:08.to reduce attacks on from mine officers, and restore the number of

:57:09. > :57:11.police on our streets? Can I send our best wishes to those police

:57:12. > :57:16.officers who were assaulted in her constituency last week. It is

:57:17. > :57:22.important that we recognise, when police officers go out on duty, and

:57:23. > :57:25.indeed off-duty, they sometimes find themselves intervening in situations

:57:26. > :57:28.where they find themselves on the receiving end of assaults and

:57:29. > :57:33.violence against them. They are willing to go forward in the line of

:57:34. > :57:37.duty where others are not. And we recognise that. What we have done in

:57:38. > :57:41.relation to this is, one of the things we want to do is to actually

:57:42. > :57:45.identify rather better the number of assaults taking place. That's why

:57:46. > :57:48.last year we issued some provisional figures, we are improving those

:57:49. > :57:52.figures this year. Sentencing guidelines already allow for an

:57:53. > :57:57.assault on a police officer to be taken as an aggravating factor into

:57:58. > :58:04.account. Newton elements like body worn video cameras help to provide

:58:05. > :58:07.evidence to make sure people can be brought to justice and deter

:58:08. > :58:12.assaults in the first place. I know the Prime Minister shares my concern

:58:13. > :58:18.at the level of Acute Hospital bed blocking. But she agree with me that

:58:19. > :58:22.part of the solution is to promote Community Hospital beds in places

:58:23. > :58:28.where they still exist in places like Warminster and Shaftesbury as

:58:29. > :58:34.part of a stability process. As regards the best EP process, that

:58:35. > :58:37.will take place at local level that these proposals will be considered

:58:38. > :58:41.and put forward by local clinicians. But the concept of being able to

:58:42. > :58:44.deal with bed blocking in a variety of ways is absolutely right. There

:58:45. > :58:50.are good examples around the country where having those step-down beds

:58:51. > :58:54.available is actually resolving the problem of bed blocking. There are

:58:55. > :58:58.other ways in which it is being done, in parts of the country social

:58:59. > :59:01.workers are employed by hospital trusts for example. It is good to

:59:02. > :59:05.recognise the good practice when it is being done and we should see more

:59:06. > :59:11.of that across the country. Earlier this month IRA man turned lawyer

:59:12. > :59:16.Kieran Conway confessed to the BBC that he took part in robberies,

:59:17. > :59:21.bombings and gun attacks that murdered British soldiers. He stated

:59:22. > :59:25.he will never disclose information on any fellow IRA man despite

:59:26. > :59:30.knowing details of IRA actions that he himself defined as constituting

:59:31. > :59:33.war crimes. Can the Prime Minister assure me that Her Majesty 's

:59:34. > :59:36.government will apply for the extradition of this terrorist for

:59:37. > :59:42.questioning from the Republic of Ireland? The question as to whether

:59:43. > :59:46.or not an individual would be extradited or a request would be put

:59:47. > :59:51.in for extradition would be for the appropriate prosecution and

:59:52. > :59:55.investigation authorities to take. What I do say to the honourable

:59:56. > :00:00.gentleman is that we do of course recognise the concerns for those

:00:01. > :00:03.cases where it is still possible to bring people to justice, and

:00:04. > :00:09.obviously want to see that being done. Mr Speaker, during the last

:00:10. > :00:13.six years we've had three major referendums all with varying degrees

:00:14. > :00:17.of excitement. Would the Prime Minister agree with me that you can

:00:18. > :00:18.have too much excitement, will see therefore rule out any further

:00:19. > :00:30.referendums in this Parliament? Well, my honourable friend is trying

:00:31. > :00:33.to set me down a route. One thing I will certainly rule out is a second

:00:34. > :00:44.referendum on whether or not we leave the European Union.

:00:45. > :00:48.Mr Speaker, there has been a financial appeal launched because of

:00:49. > :00:53.the increasing numbers of people finding themselves homeless as the

:00:54. > :00:58.direct result of the UK Government's pursuit of austerity. How account

:00:59. > :01:03.Prime Minister sleep in her warm bed at night, knowing her Government

:01:04. > :01:07.policies have confined people to a cold Christmas? The Government is

:01:08. > :01:11.taking action in a variety of aof ways to address homelessness. We

:01:12. > :01:15.need it make sure we see more homes being built in this country. I say

:01:16. > :01:19.this to the honourable lady. She talks about austerity in the tone

:01:20. > :01:29.she refers to T actually austerity is about us living within our means.

:01:30. > :01:32.And we should always remember, when we are talking about Government

:01:33. > :01:37.providing support for individuals, that tax payers have to pay for that

:01:38. > :01:41.support and many tax payers are themselves struggling to get by.

:01:42. > :01:45.Thank you, Mr Speaker. The Prime Minister will be aware

:01:46. > :01:48.that yesterday the peninsula rail task force launched its report which

:01:49. > :01:52.was commissioned following the storms which serviced Devon and

:01:53. > :01:55.Cornwall's vital rail link as it was severed again, this time by

:01:56. > :02:00.flooding. Does she welcome the report and will she commit the

:02:01. > :02:04.Government to ensuring the vision it outlines is delivered? I thank my

:02:05. > :02:07.honourable friend for his question. Can I suggest he exercises a little

:02:08. > :02:09.more patience and listens very carefully to what my right

:02:10. > :02:17.honourable friend the Chancellor will have to say.

:02:18. > :02:22.Mr Speaker, in these uncertain times, we all should agree that

:02:23. > :02:29.Britain needs strong defence. How account Prime Minister justify her

:02:30. > :02:34.Government's decision to scrap all the Navy's heavyweight surface to

:02:35. > :02:40.surface guided missiles without any replacement? I don't accept the

:02:41. > :02:44.picture the honourable gentleman represents of the Armed Forces, we

:02:45. > :02:48.are investing billions of pounds to ensuring our Armed Forces have the

:02:49. > :02:50.missiles, the boats, the ships for the royal navy and other pieces of

:02:51. > :02:54.equipment for the other Armed Forces. So the picture he presents

:02:55. > :02:59.is not the picture I recognise. Thank you, Mr Speaker.

:03:00. > :03:07.Would my right honourable friend agree that it would be good for

:03:08. > :03:10.confidence in the rule of law if judges did not enter into

:03:11. > :03:18.speculative public thoughts on cases that they are about to hear? We

:03:19. > :03:24.value n this country, the independence of our judiciary. -- in

:03:25. > :03:27.this country. That's the independence for the judiciary when

:03:28. > :03:30.they come to make their judgments in court but also they are independent

:03:31. > :03:34.and it is for them to determine what they choose to put in their speechts

:03:35. > :03:45.or not, not for the Government to tell them what to do. Mr Speaker, as

:03:46. > :03:51.millions of public sector workers face another year of suppressed pay.

:03:52. > :03:55.After another week of shambolic Brexit negotiations, and with a

:03:56. > :03:59.National Health Service facing an winter crisis, facing ap winter

:04:00. > :04:02.crisis and crying out for cash, does the Prime Minister worry that her

:04:03. > :04:11.Government is only just about managing?

:04:12. > :04:13.Well, I have to say to the right honourable gentleman that we are

:04:14. > :04:17.very clear about the amounts of money we are putting into the

:04:18. > :04:20.National Health Service. He talks about the negotiations, actually the

:04:21. > :04:24.negotiations for us leaving the European Union don't formally start

:04:25. > :04:29.until we trigger Article 50. We will be triggering Article 50 by the end

:04:30. > :04:33.of March next year. What the right honourable gentleman wants to do is

:04:34. > :04:38.to stop us from leaving the European Union by denying the people, the

:04:39. > :04:42.decision and deliverability of the vote they took, rightly on, 23rd

:04:43. > :04:47.June. He wants to deny people what they want, we are going to give it

:04:48. > :04:50.to them. May I raise with the Prime Minister the concerns of millions of

:04:51. > :04:54.drivers and hauliers across the United Kingdom who worry about the

:04:55. > :04:58.cost of driving, cost of fuel duty, whether her Government will look at

:04:59. > :05:04.keeping that down and also at the pump pricing and how forecourt

:05:05. > :05:08.pricing is worked as oil prices change, prices jump like a rocket

:05:09. > :05:11.and fall like a feather. I recognise, as my honourable friend

:05:12. > :05:14.says many people look with very great concern about the cost of

:05:15. > :05:19.motoring in this country. I suggest, as I have done, to some of my other

:05:20. > :05:21.honourable friends, he is a little more patient and waits for the

:05:22. > :05:27.Chancellor's Autumn Statement. Thank you, Mr Speaker. The Prime

:05:28. > :05:33.Minister has talked about her worries with social care but surely

:05:34. > :05:38.we have to judge her by her actions. In the last six years there's been a

:05:39. > :05:42.37%, on average, cut in local authority funding. 57% in my area.

:05:43. > :05:46.And nearly one-quarter of all of those older people in need of social

:05:47. > :05:55.care have been denied any help at all. What is she going to do about

:05:56. > :05:59.it? The Right Honourable lady might have noticed I have been asked

:06:00. > :06:03.several questions about social care and I will give the answer...

:06:04. > :06:07.I will give the answer I have given previously. What this Government is

:06:08. > :06:10.doing about social care is putting more in through the Better Care

:06:11. > :06:13.Fund, giving local authorities the opportunity through the social care

:06:14. > :06:16.preset and making sure that health and social care come together to

:06:17. > :06:21.ensure that we deal with the issue of bedblocking.

:06:22. > :06:29.Thank you, Mr Speaker. Mr Speaker, how many of us would charge into a

:06:30. > :06:32.darkened store at night knowing that inside there three masked-wearing

:06:33. > :06:38.crow-war wielding thugs trying to rob a store My two constituents,

:06:39. > :06:43.Nigel and Grant did just that and by intervening, the thugs fled, leaving

:06:44. > :06:46.the money, the staff were hurt less, and one of the gentlemen was hurt

:06:47. > :06:53.himself. Will my right honourable friend join me in praising their

:06:54. > :07:02.courage and selflessness in this extraordinary act of bravado? I

:07:03. > :07:07.absolutely... I absolutely agree with my

:07:08. > :07:12.honourable friend and I commend the bravery and courage that was shown

:07:13. > :07:14.by those two individuals. I think he said Nigel and Grant who stepped

:07:15. > :07:19.into that situation who ensure that it was not as bad as it might have

:07:20. > :07:22.been. That is incredible bravery. There are many members of the public

:07:23. > :07:28.who would not have been willing to step forward in that way. Can he

:07:29. > :07:31.pass my best wishes and I'm sure the best wishes of the House on to those

:07:32. > :07:36.individuals. Does the Prime Minister believe that

:07:37. > :07:42.big companies should put a woke on the board? I believe that we should

:07:43. > :07:45.see workers representation on boards and I make no apology for the fact

:07:46. > :07:50.that this Government is going to deliver on that.

:07:51. > :07:59.For all their years in Government, the Labour Party did nothing. Speak

:08:00. > :08:02.speck order. -- THE SPEAKER: Order. Statement the First Secretary of

:08:03. > :08:09.State and Chancellor of the Exchequer.

:08:10. > :08:14.Chancellor Phil Hammond. Mr Speaker, it is a privilege to

:08:15. > :08:17.report today on an economy which the IMF predicts will be the

:08:18. > :08:23.fastest-growing major advanced economy in the world this year.

:08:24. > :08:26.An economy with employment at a record high and unemployment at an

:08:27. > :08:30.11-year low. An economy which, through the hard

:08:31. > :08:36.work of the British people, has bounced back from the depths of

:08:37. > :08:41.Labour's recession. And an economy, which has confounded

:08:42. > :08:46.commentators at hem and abroad wits strengths and its resilience -- at

:08:47. > :08:49.home and abroad with its sfrenges and resilience since the British

:08:50. > :08:57.people decided to leave the European Union and chart a new future for our

:08:58. > :09:03.country. M Mr Speaker that will change the course of history, it has

:09:04. > :09:06.thrown into sharp relieve the economy that will ensure our

:09:07. > :09:10.success. The global reach of our services industries, the strength of

:09:11. > :09:13.our science and hi-tech manufacturing base and the cutting

:09:14. > :09:16.edge British businesses that are he had looking the world in disruptive

:09:17. > :09:22.technologies. But it is a decision that also makes more urgent, than

:09:23. > :09:26.ever, the need to tackle our economy's long-term weaknesses, like

:09:27. > :09:30.the productivity gap, the housing challenge and the damaging imbalance

:09:31. > :09:35.in economic growth and prosperity across our country.

:09:36. > :09:38.Mr Speaker, we resolve today to conp front those challenges head on. --

:09:39. > :09:43.confront those challenges head on. To prepare our country to seize the

:09:44. > :09:51.opportunities ahead. And in doing so, to build an economy that works

:09:52. > :09:55.for everyone. A an economy where every corner of

:09:56. > :10:00.this United Kingdom is part of our national success. Mr Speaker, I want

:10:01. > :10:07.to pay tribute to my predecessor, my right honourable friend, the member

:10:08. > :10:14.for Tatton. My style, Mr Speaker, will, of

:10:15. > :10:19.course be different from his. I suspect I will prove no more adept

:10:20. > :10:22.at pulling rabbits from hats than my successor at Foreign Secretary has

:10:23. > :10:28.been from retrieving balls from the back of scrums. But my focus on

:10:29. > :10:36.building Britain's long-term future will be the same. He took over an

:10:37. > :10:47.economy on the brink of collapse. With the highest budget deficit in

:10:48. > :10:52.our history and brought it down by two-thirds. That is a record of

:10:53. > :10:58.which he should be proud but times have moved on and the task now is to

:10:59. > :11:02.prepare the economy for the exit of the EU and match fit for the

:11:03. > :11:07.transition that will follow. We will contain our commitment for fiscal

:11:08. > :11:10.discipline, while recognising the need for investment to drive

:11:11. > :11:13.productivity. And fiscal head room to support the

:11:14. > :11:21.economy through the transition. Mr Speaker, let me turn now to the

:11:22. > :11:24.forecast. Since 2010, the Office for Budget Responsibility has provided

:11:25. > :11:28.an independent economic and fiscal forecast to which the Government

:11:29. > :11:33.must respond. Gone are the days when the Chancellor could mark his own

:11:34. > :11:39.homework. I thank Robert Choalk and his team for their hard work.

:11:40. > :11:46.Today's OBR forecast is for growth to be 2.1% in 2016, high than

:11:47. > :11:52.forecast in March N 2017, the OBR forecast growth to slow to 2.4%,

:11:53. > :11:56.which they attribute to lobar investment and weaker consumer

:11:57. > :11:59.demand driven respectively by greater uncertainty and by higher

:12:00. > :12:05.inflation resulting from sterling depreciation. That is slower, of

:12:06. > :12:08.course, than we would wish. But, still, equivalent to the IMF's

:12:09. > :12:13.forecasts for Germany and higher than the forecast for growth in many

:12:14. > :12:18.of our European neighbours, including France and Italy. A fact

:12:19. > :12:23.that will, no doubt, be a source of very considerable irritation to

:12:24. > :12:29.some. As the affects of uncertainty

:12:30. > :12:37.diminish, the OBR's forecast growth recovering to 1.7% in 2018, 2.1% in

:12:38. > :12:42.2019-2020 and 2% in 202 #. While the OBR is clear it cannot predict the

:12:43. > :12:46.deal the UK will strike the EU, it's current view is that the referendum

:12:47. > :12:51.decision means that potential growth over the forecast period is likely

:12:52. > :12:57.to be 2.4% lower than would otherwise have been the case.

:12:58. > :13:01.The OBR acknowledges that there is a higher degree of uncertainty around

:13:02. > :13:07.these figures than usual. Despite slower growth, the UK labour

:13:08. > :13:12.market is forecast to remain robust. We have delivered over 2.7 million

:13:13. > :13:16.new jobs since 2010 and this forecast, this forecast, Mr Speaker,

:13:17. > :13:22.shows that number growing in every year.

:13:23. > :13:26.Another 500,000 jobs created over the OBR forecast, providing security

:13:27. > :13:31.for working people across the length and breadth of Britain.

:13:32. > :13:36.Mr Speaker, for those who claim that the recovery is just a south-east

:13:37. > :13:40.phenomenon, I have some news. Over the past year, employment grew

:13:41. > :13:43.fastest in the north-east, the claimant count fell fastest in

:13:44. > :13:47.Northern Ireland. Pay grew most strongly in the West Midlands and

:13:48. > :13:54.every UK nation and region saw a record number of people in work.

:13:55. > :13:59.That, Mr Speaker, is a labour market recovery that is working for

:14:00. > :14:02.everyone. Monetary policy has played an

:14:03. > :14:08.important role in supporting growth since the referendum decision. But a

:14:09. > :14:10.credible fiscal policy remains essential for maintaining market

:14:11. > :14:15.confidence and restoring the economy to long-term hale.

:14:16. > :14:19.In -- long-term hale. In view of the uncertainty facing the economy and

:14:20. > :14:26.in the face of slower growth forecastings, we no longer seek to

:14:27. > :14:30.deliver a surplus in 2019-20 but the Prime Minister and I - the Prime

:14:31. > :14:36.Minister and I, Mr Speaker, remain firmly committed to seeing the

:14:37. > :14:43.public finances returned to balance as soon as practicable, while

:14:44. > :14:47.leaving enough flexibility... SHOUTS AND

:14:48. > :14:52.JEERS While leaving enough flexibility to

:14:53. > :14:59.sport economy in the near term. -- to support the economy. Today aim'

:15:00. > :15:02.reporting a new draft charter with three fiscal rules: First the public

:15:03. > :15:10.finances should be returned to balance as early as possible in the

:15:11. > :15:14.next Parliament. And in the... And in the interim, Mr Speaker, sick

:15:15. > :15:17.lickically adjusted borrowing should be below 2% by the end of this

:15:18. > :15:24.Parliament. Second, public sector net debt as

:15:25. > :15:30.share of GDP must be falling by the end of this Parliament. Welfare

:15:31. > :15:34.spending must be within a cap set by the government and monitored by the

:15:35. > :15:38.OBR. In the absence of an effective framework, the welfare bill in our

:15:39. > :15:41.country spiralled out of control with spending on working age

:15:42. > :15:48.benefits trebling in real terms between 1980 and 2010 as a result of

:15:49. > :15:54.the action we have taken since 2010, that has now stabilised. The cat I

:15:55. > :16:01.have announced takes into account the policy changes since the last

:16:02. > :16:05.budget with a realistic baseline -- the cap. I confirm again today that

:16:06. > :16:08.the government has no plans to introduce further welfare savings

:16:09. > :16:15.measures in this Parliament beyond those already announced. I now turn,

:16:16. > :16:19.Mr Speaker, to the OBR fiscal forecast. First I will set out key

:16:20. > :16:22.drivers of changes since the budget. The post-budget changes that were

:16:23. > :16:31.made to welfare and housing policies cost the Exchequer ?8.6 billion over

:16:32. > :16:36.the forecast period. Expected ONS classification changes have added

:16:37. > :16:38.?12 billion since the budget. Tax receipts have been lower than

:16:39. > :16:45.expected this year, causing the OBR to revise down addicted revenues in

:16:46. > :16:49.future. Added to this is a structural effect of rapidly rising

:16:50. > :16:54.incorporation and self-employment, which further erodes revenues.

:16:55. > :16:57.Combine in these pressures with the impact of forecast weaker growth and

:16:58. > :17:02.taking account of the measures I shall announce today, the OBR now

:17:03. > :17:08.forecasts that in cash terms borrowing is set to be ?68.2 billion

:17:09. > :17:22.this year, falling to ?59 billion next year, ?46.5 billion in 18-19,

:17:23. > :17:27.and then ?21.9 million, -- ?20.7 billion, and ?17.2 billion in 21-22.

:17:28. > :17:32.Overall public sector net borrowing as a percentage of GDP will fall

:17:33. > :17:40.from 4% last year to 3.5% this year and will continue to fall over the

:17:41. > :17:47.parliament, reaching 0.7% in 21-22. This will be the lowest deficit as a

:17:48. > :17:55.share of GDP in two decades. The OBR expects security adjusted public

:17:56. > :18:01.sector net borrowing to be 0.8% of GDP in 20-21, comfortable in meeting

:18:02. > :18:04.our target to it to less than 2% and importantly leaving significant

:18:05. > :18:10.flexibility to respond to any headwinds the economy may encounter.

:18:11. > :18:13.The OBR's forecast of higher borrowing and slow asset sales

:18:14. > :18:18.together with the temporary effect of the Bank of England's action to

:18:19. > :18:23.stimulate growth translates into an increased forecast the debt in the

:18:24. > :18:30.near-term. The OBR forecasts that debt will rise from 84.2% of GDP

:18:31. > :18:37.last year to 87.3% this year. Peeking at 90.2% in 2017-18, has the

:18:38. > :18:43.Bank of England's monetary policy interventions approached their full

:18:44. > :18:48.effect. In 2018-19 debt is projected to fall to 89.7% of national income,

:18:49. > :18:53.a first fall in the national debt as a share of GDP since 2001- 02. And

:18:54. > :18:58.it is forecast to continue falling thereafter. Members of the house may

:18:59. > :19:03.be interested to know that stripping out the effects of the Bank of

:19:04. > :19:10.England interventions underlying debt peaks this year at 82.4% of GDP

:19:11. > :19:16.and falls thereafter to 77.7% by 21-22. This the Speaker, it is

:19:17. > :19:19.customary in the run-up to the Autumn Statement to hear

:19:20. > :19:24.representations from the Shadow Chancellor of the day, usually for

:19:25. > :19:30.untenable levels of spending and borrowing. We used to think on this

:19:31. > :19:36.side of the house that Ed Balls's demands were an extreme example, but

:19:37. > :19:43.I have to say the current Shadow Chancellor has outperformed him in

:19:44. > :19:54.the fiscal incompetent sweepstakes. What we don't know is whether he can

:19:55. > :20:00.also dance. He can? Good, good. A second career awaits him, Mr

:20:01. > :20:03.Speaker. I have received, Mr Speaker, some more measured

:20:04. > :20:07.representations from a range of external bodies. Some of them

:20:08. > :20:11.calling for fiscal expansion while others have suggested that there is

:20:12. > :20:14.no need at all to respond to a changed economic outlook. And that

:20:15. > :20:19.reflects, to be fair, the challenge that we face of resolving how best

:20:20. > :20:23.to protect the recovery, build on the economy's manifest strengths,

:20:24. > :20:28.yet at the same time respond appropriately to the warnings of a

:20:29. > :20:32.more difficult period ahead. But with our debt forecast to peak at

:20:33. > :20:38.over 90% next year and the deficit this year of 3.5%, I have reached my

:20:39. > :20:44.own judgment. It is a judgment based on a sober analysis of our fiscal

:20:45. > :20:48.position, but also a realistic appraisal of the weakness of UK

:20:49. > :20:52.productivity, and the urgent need to address our fiscal challenge from

:20:53. > :20:58.both ends. Continuing to control public expenditure but also growing

:20:59. > :21:02.the potential of the economy and protecting the tax base. So we

:21:03. > :21:08.choose in this Autumn Statement to prioritise additional high-value

:21:09. > :21:12.investment, specifically in infrastructure and innovation, that

:21:13. > :21:20.will directly contribute to raising Britain's productivity. And the key

:21:21. > :21:23.judgment we make today is that our hard-won credibility on public

:21:24. > :21:28.spending means that we can fund this commitment in the short-term from

:21:29. > :21:34.additional borrowing while funding all other new policies announced in

:21:35. > :21:38.this Autumn Statement through additional tax and spending

:21:39. > :21:43.measures. That is the responsible way to secure our economy for the

:21:44. > :21:47.long-term. Mr Speaker, the productivity gap is well known to

:21:48. > :21:54.honourable and right Honourable members but shocking nonetheless. It

:21:55. > :22:00.bears repeating, we lack the US and Germany by some 30 percentage points

:22:01. > :22:04.in productivity, but we also lag France by 20 points and Italy by

:22:05. > :22:09.eight points. Which means in the real world it takes a German worker

:22:10. > :22:16.for days to produce what we make in five. And that means, in turn, that

:22:17. > :22:19.too many British workers work longer hours for lower pay than their

:22:20. > :22:26.counterparts, and that has to change if we are to build an economy that

:22:27. > :22:29.works for everyone. So raising productivity, Mr Speaker, is

:22:30. > :22:34.essential for the high wage, high skill economy that will deliver

:22:35. > :22:38.higher living standards for working people across this country. As a

:22:39. > :22:43.result of decisions taken by my predecessor, public investment is

:22:44. > :22:48.high over this decade than it was over the whole of the period of the

:22:49. > :22:51.last Labour government. But today I can go further. I can announce that

:22:52. > :22:57.we are forming a new national productivity investment fund of ?23

:22:58. > :23:03.billion to be spent on innovation and infrastructure over the next

:23:04. > :23:09.five years. Investing today for the economy of the future. Let me set

:23:10. > :23:15.out for the house how this money will be used. Mr Speaker, we do not

:23:16. > :23:20.invest enough in research, development and innovation. As the

:23:21. > :23:23.pace of technology advances and competition from the rest of the

:23:24. > :23:28.world increases, we must build on our strengths in science and tech

:23:29. > :23:32.innovation to ensure that the next generation of discoveries is not

:23:33. > :23:36.only made here, but is also developed and produced in Britain.

:23:37. > :23:46.So today I can confirm the additional investment in R rising

:23:47. > :23:51.to an extra ?2 billion by 2020-21. Mr Speaker, economic to productive

:23:52. > :23:56.infrastructure directly benefits businesses. But families, too, rely

:23:57. > :24:01.on road, rails, telecoms and especially housing. We've made good

:24:02. > :24:05.progress with the number of new homes being built last year, hitting

:24:06. > :24:11.an eight year high. But for too many the goal of homeownership remains

:24:12. > :24:14.out of reach. In October my right honourable friend the Communities

:24:15. > :24:21.Secretary launched the ?3 billion home builders fund to unlock over

:24:22. > :24:24.200,000 homes and up to ?2 billion to accelerate construction on public

:24:25. > :24:30.sector land. But we must further still. The challenge of delivering

:24:31. > :24:34.the housing we so desperately need in the places where it is currently

:24:35. > :24:39.least affordable is not, of course, a new one. At the effect of

:24:40. > :24:43.unaffordable housing on our nation's productivity makes it an urgent one.

:24:44. > :24:47.My right honourable friend the Communities Secretary will bring

:24:48. > :24:52.forward a housing wide paper in due course addressing these long-term

:24:53. > :24:58.challenges. But in the meantime we can take further steps. One of the

:24:59. > :25:00.biggest objections to housing development as honourable and right

:25:01. > :25:04.Honourable members will know from their own constituencies is often

:25:05. > :25:07.the impact on local infrastructure. So we will focus government

:25:08. > :25:12.infrastructure investment to unlock land for housing with a new ?2.3

:25:13. > :25:18.billion housing infrastructure fund to deliver infrastructure for up to

:25:19. > :25:25.100,000 new homes in areas of high demand. And to provide a affordable

:25:26. > :25:30.housing that supports a wide range of needs, we will invest a further

:25:31. > :25:36.?1.4 billion to deliver 40,000 additional affordable homes. And I

:25:37. > :25:41.will also relax restrictions on government grants to allow providers

:25:42. > :25:48.to deliver wider of housing types. I can also announce a large-scale

:25:49. > :25:54.regional roll-out of Right to buy for housing association tenants, and

:25:55. > :26:00.continued support for homeownership through the help to buy equity loans

:26:01. > :26:02.scheme and the help to buy ISA. Mr Speaker, this package means that

:26:03. > :26:05.over the course of this Parliament the government expects to more than

:26:06. > :26:10.double, in real terms, annual capital spending on housing. Coupled

:26:11. > :26:14.with our resolve to tackle the long-term challenges of land supply,

:26:15. > :26:19.this commitment to housing delivery represents a step change in our

:26:20. > :26:23.ambition to increase the supply of homes for sale and for rent, to

:26:24. > :26:31.deliver a housing market that works for everyone. Mr Speaker, reliable

:26:32. > :26:35.transport networks are essential to growth and productivity. So this

:26:36. > :26:40.Autumn Statement commits significant additional funding to help keep

:26:41. > :26:45.Britain moving now and to invest in the transport networks and vehicles

:26:46. > :26:48.of the future. I will commit an additional ?1.1 billion of

:26:49. > :26:52.investment in English local transport networks where small

:26:53. > :27:00.investments can often offer big wins. ?220 million additionally to

:27:01. > :27:04.address traffic pinch points on strategic roads. ?450 million to

:27:05. > :27:09.trial digital signalling on our railways to achieve a step change in

:27:10. > :27:12.reliability and to squeeze more capacity out of our existing rail

:27:13. > :27:20.infrastructure, something I know the Leader of the Opposition will

:27:21. > :27:23.welcome. And finally, Mr Speaker, ?390 million to build on our

:27:24. > :27:27.competitive advantage in low emission vehicles and the

:27:28. > :27:32.development of connected autonomous vehicles. Plus 100% first-year

:27:33. > :27:36.capital allowance for the installation of electric vehicle

:27:37. > :27:39.charging infrastructure. The Department for Transport will

:27:40. > :27:42.continue to work with transport for the North to develop detailed

:27:43. > :27:45.options for the Northern Powerhouse rail. My right honourable friend the

:27:46. > :27:49.Transport Secretary will set out more details of specific projects

:27:50. > :27:54.and priorities over the coming weeks. Mr Speaker, our future

:27:55. > :27:58.transport business and lifestyle needs will require world-class

:27:59. > :28:03.digital infrastructure to underpin them. So, my ambition, it says here

:28:04. > :28:29.because I wrote it here... So, my ambition, Mr Speaker, is for

:28:30. > :28:34.the UK to be a world leader in 5G, which means a step change in speed

:28:35. > :28:36.and reliability. We will invest over ?1 billion in our digital

:28:37. > :28:44.infrastructure to catalyse private investment in fibre networks and to

:28:45. > :28:50.support 5G trials. And from April we will introduce 100% business rates

:28:51. > :28:53.relief for a five-year period on new fibre infrastructure. Supporting

:28:54. > :29:01.further roll-out of fibre to homes and businesses. We have chosen, Mr

:29:02. > :29:03.Speaker, to borrow, to kick-start a transformation in infrastructure and

:29:04. > :29:09.innovation investment. But we must sustain this effort over the long

:29:10. > :29:13.term if we are to make a lasting difference to the UK productivity

:29:14. > :29:16.performance. So today I have written to the National infrastructure

:29:17. > :29:19.commission to ask them to make their recommendations on the future

:29:20. > :29:23.infrastructure needs of the country, using the assumption that the

:29:24. > :29:31.government will invest between 1% and 1.2% of GDP every year from 2020

:29:32. > :29:34.in economic infrastructure covered by the commission. To put that in

:29:35. > :29:41.context, will spend around 0.8% of GDP on the same definition this

:29:42. > :29:44.year. I am also backing the commission's interim recommendations

:29:45. > :29:48.on the Oxford Cambridge growth corridor published last week with

:29:49. > :29:52.?110 million of funding for east-west rail and a commitment to

:29:53. > :29:59.deliver the new Oxford Cambridge Expressway. But, Mr Speaker, this

:30:00. > :30:03.project can be more than just a transport link. It can become a

:30:04. > :30:06.transformational tech corridor, drawing on the world-class research

:30:07. > :30:14.strengths of our two best-known universities. So I welcome the

:30:15. > :30:17.commission's continuing work on delivering model options and we will

:30:18. > :30:22.carefully consider its final recommendations in due course.

:30:23. > :30:26.The major increase in infrastructure I have announced will represent a

:30:27. > :30:32.significant increase in funding through the Barnett Formula of over

:30:33. > :30:36.?250 million to the Northern Ireland executive, ?400 million to the Welsh

:30:37. > :30:45.Government and ?800 million to the Scottish Government.

:30:46. > :30:55.I'm sure he will in a moment. But, Mr Speaker, public investment

:30:56. > :30:59.is only part of the picture. About half of our economic infrastructure

:31:00. > :31:04.is financed by the private sector and we will continue to support that

:31:05. > :31:09.investment through the UK guarantee scheme, which I am today extending

:31:10. > :31:14.until at least 2026. The new capital investment I have announce Liberal

:31:15. > :31:17.Democrat provide the financial backbone for the you Government's

:31:18. > :31:21.industrial strategy which the Prime Minister spoke about on Monday, a

:31:22. > :31:28.firm foundation upon which my right honourable friend the Business

:31:29. > :31:33.Secretary will work, with industry, to build our ambition of an economy

:31:34. > :31:37.that workser to you will A I can announce further measures it back

:31:38. > :31:43.business. I'm doubling export capacity to make it easier for

:31:44. > :31:45.British businesses to export and funding an initiative to boost

:31:46. > :31:49.management skills across British businesses and taking a first step

:31:50. > :31:52.to tack he will why the long-standing problem of our

:31:53. > :31:56.fastest-growing start-up tech firms being snapped up by bigger

:31:57. > :32:02.companies, rather than growing to scale, bin jecting an initial ?400

:32:03. > :32:05.million into venture capital funds, through the British business bank,

:32:06. > :32:10.unlocking ?1 billion of new finance for growing firms.

:32:11. > :32:15.And I'm also launching today, a Treasury-led review of the barriers

:32:16. > :32:20.to accessing patient capital in the UK, so that we can take further

:32:21. > :32:23.action to address them. Mr Speaker, this Government

:32:24. > :32:27.recognises that for too long economic growth in our country has

:32:28. > :32:31.been too concentrated in London and the south-east. That is not just a

:32:32. > :32:37.social problem. It's an economic problem. London is one of the

:32:38. > :32:41.highest productivity cities in the world and we should celebrate that

:32:42. > :32:46.fact. But no other major developed economy has such a gap between the

:32:47. > :32:52.productivity of its capital city and its second and third cities. So, we

:32:53. > :32:57.must drive up the performance of our regional cities. Today, we publish

:32:58. > :33:00.our strategy for addressing productivity barriers in the

:33:01. > :33:06.northern powerhouse and give the go-ahead to a programme of major

:33:07. > :33:10.road schemes in the north. Our Midlands engine strategy will follow

:33:11. > :33:14.shortly but I am today providing funding that the evaluation study

:33:15. > :33:18.for the Midlands rail hub can go ahead. In addition, we are investing

:33:19. > :33:23.in local infrastructure in every region of England. I can announce

:33:24. > :33:29.the allocation of ?1.8 billion from the local growth fund, to the

:33:30. > :33:34.English regions. ?556 million to local enterprise partnerships in the

:33:35. > :33:40.north of England, ?542 million to the Midlands and east of England

:33:41. > :33:43.a?683 million to LEPs in the south-west, south-east and London.

:33:44. > :33:47.We will announce the detailed breakdown of allocations to

:33:48. > :33:51.individual LEPs shortly. Devolution, Mr Speaker, remains at the heart of

:33:52. > :33:57.this Government's approach to supporting local growth. And we

:33:58. > :34:02.recommit today to our city deals with Swansea, Edinburgh North Wales

:34:03. > :34:07.and Tie Cities and I can announce today we are beginning negotiations

:34:08. > :34:13.on a city deal for Stirling so every single city in Scotland will be on

:34:14. > :34:16.course to have a city deal. To support new mayoral combined

:34:17. > :34:20.authorities in England, I can announce that we will grant them new

:34:21. > :34:29.borrowing powers, to reflect their new responsibilities.

:34:30. > :34:32.And while we continue discussions in London and the West Midlands on

:34:33. > :34:37.possible consideration of further devolution powers. I can relegal

:34:38. > :34:40.that London will have its share of national affordable housing funding

:34:41. > :34:45.to deliver a commitment of over ?90,000 affordable homes and also

:34:46. > :34:48.that we are devolving to London, the adult education budget and giving

:34:49. > :34:52.London greater control over the delivery of employment support

:34:53. > :34:57.services for the hardest to help. Mr Speaker, I have deliberately

:34:58. > :35:04.avoided making this statement into a long list of individual projects

:35:05. > :35:11.being supported. But... But, I am going to make one

:35:12. > :35:18.exception. I will act today with just seven

:35:19. > :35:20.days to spare, to save one of the UK's most important historic houses,

:35:21. > :35:27.Wentworth wood house neither Rotherham.

:35:28. > :35:32.It is said to be the inspiration for Pemberley in Jane Austin's Pride

:35:33. > :35:37.Prejudice but in 1946, in an extraordinary act of cultural

:35:38. > :35:40.vandalism, the then Labour Government authorised extensive

:35:41. > :35:45.open-cast coal mining, virtually up to the front door of this precious

:35:46. > :35:51.property. Perhaps, Mr Speaker, that's Labour's idea of a northern

:35:52. > :35:57.powerhouse. Wentworth Woodhouse is now at critical risk of being lost

:35:58. > :36:03.to future... THE SPEAKER: It sounds very interesting indeed, the

:36:04. > :36:07.Chancellor. WentworthWoodhouse is at critical

:36:08. > :36:12.risk of being lost to future generations, a local effort has been

:36:13. > :36:14.successful in securing millions of pounds 234 funding from various

:36:15. > :36:19.foundations and charities, subject to the balance required to make the

:36:20. > :36:27.house safe being found by November 30th. So, we will, today, provide a

:36:28. > :36:32.?7.6 million grant towards urgent repairs to safeguard this key piece

:36:33. > :36:33.of northern heritage, all but destroyed by a Labour Government,

:36:34. > :36:58.saved by a Conservative one. I can, also, Mr Speaker, confirm

:36:59. > :37:03.distribution of a further ?102 million of Libor bank fines to Armed

:37:04. > :37:06.Forces and emergency services charities.

:37:07. > :37:12.Including my honourable friends will be pleased to hear, ?20 million to

:37:13. > :37:16.support the defence and national rehabilitation centre at Stamford

:37:17. > :37:20.Hall in Nottinghamshire. As well as ?3 million from the tampon tax fund

:37:21. > :37:26.for Comic Relief to distribute to a range of women's charities.

:37:27. > :37:29.Mr Speaker, we choose to invest in our economic infrastructure, because

:37:30. > :37:34.it can transform the growth potential of our economy, as well as

:37:35. > :37:39.improving the quality of people's lives. But that investment is only

:37:40. > :37:44.possible because we on this side of the House are prepared to take the

:37:45. > :37:49.tough decisions to maintain control of current spending. Every one of

:37:50. > :37:56.them opposed by the party opposite. When we took office in 2010, public

:37:57. > :38:00.spending was 45% of GDP. This year, it is set to be 40%.

:38:01. > :38:05.And during those six years, we've seen crime fall by more than

:38:06. > :38:10.one-quarter. The highest proportion ever of goods or outstanding schools

:38:11. > :38:13.-- good or outstanding schools. The number of doctors has increased by

:38:14. > :38:19.10,000 in NHS. Pensioner poverty at lowest level ever. The lowest ever

:38:20. > :38:22.number of children being raised in workless households and the

:38:23. > :38:26.highest-ever, number of young people going on to study fulltime at

:38:27. > :38:31.university. We have demonstrated, beyond doubt,

:38:32. > :38:33.that controlling public spending is compatible with world class public

:38:34. > :38:44.services, and social improvement. But as the OBR projections

:38:45. > :38:48.demonstrate, we have more work to do to eliminate the deficit. So

:38:49. > :38:55.departmental spending plans, set out in the Spending Review last autumn,

:38:56. > :38:59.will remain in place. And departmental expenditure in 21-22,

:39:00. > :39:03.will grow in line with inflation. The ?3.5 billion of savings to be

:39:04. > :39:10.delivered through the efficiency review, announced at the budget and

:39:11. > :39:15.led Miyamoto right honourable friend the Chief Secretary - and led by my

:39:16. > :39:24.right honourable friend, the chief he can s must go through I have...

:39:25. > :39:29.For increasing the number of prison officers by 2,500. Mr Speaker,

:39:30. > :39:32.having run two large spending departments, in previous roles, I

:39:33. > :39:36.came to this job with some very clear views about the relationship

:39:37. > :39:41.between the Treasury and spending departments.

:39:42. > :39:47.I want departments to be incentivised to drive efficiencies

:39:48. > :39:51.and I want the Treasury to be an enabler for good, effective spending

:39:52. > :39:56.across Government. O to kick start this new approach, I will allow up

:39:57. > :40:03.to ?1 billion of the savings found by the efficiency review, to be

:40:04. > :40:07.reinvested in 19-20 in priority areas and I have budgeted today

:40:08. > :40:12.accordingly. Mr Speaker, we manage public spending so that we can

:40:13. > :40:16.invest in the public's priorities. And this Government has underlined

:40:17. > :40:21.those priorities with a series of commitments and were texts for the

:40:22. > :40:25.duration of this Parliament. And I can confirm today that, despite the

:40:26. > :40:29.fiscal pressure, we will meet our commitments to protect the budgets

:40:30. > :40:34.of key public services and defence. We will keep our promise to the

:40:35. > :40:37.world's poorest through our overseas' aid budget and we will

:40:38. > :40:41.meet our pledge to our country's pensioners through the triple lock.

:40:42. > :40:47.But as we look ahead to the next Parliament, we will need to ensure

:40:48. > :40:51.that we tackle the challenges of rising longevity and fiscal

:40:52. > :40:53.sustainability and, so, the Government will review public

:40:54. > :40:58.spending priorities and other commitments for the next Parliament

:40:59. > :41:00.in light of the evolving fiscal position at the next Spending

:41:01. > :41:07.Review. Mr Speaker, I now turn to taxation.

:41:08. > :41:12.Since 2010 this Government has put a business-led recovery at the heart

:41:13. > :41:17.of our plan. We've cut corporation tax from 28% to 20%. Sending the

:41:18. > :41:20.message that Britain is open for business.

:41:21. > :41:24.The additional investment in productivity and infrastructure that

:41:25. > :41:33.I have announced today, underscores that message, and the raft of

:41:34. > :41:37.investments in the UK announced, since the referendum, by Soffbank,

:41:38. > :41:43.glancing yes, Nissan and others confirms T -- Glaxo. My priority as

:41:44. > :41:46.Chancellor is to ensure that Britain remains the number one destination

:41:47. > :41:51.for business, creating the investment, jobs ands were

:41:52. > :41:55.prosperity to protect our long-term future. I know how much business

:41:56. > :41:59.values certainty and stability. So, I confirm today that we will stick

:42:00. > :42:07.to the business tax road map that we set out in March. Corporation tax

:42:08. > :42:10.will fall to 17%, by far the lowest overall rate of corporate tax in the

:42:11. > :42:14.G20. We will deliver the commitments we have made to the oil and goes

:42:15. > :42:20.sector. The carbon price support will continue to be capped out to

:42:21. > :42:24.2020 and we'll implement the business rates reduction package

:42:25. > :42:28.worth ?6.7 billion. I can also confirm today that, having consulted

:42:29. > :42:32.further, my right honourable friend, the Communities' Secretary, will

:42:33. > :42:39.lower the transitional relief cap from 45% next year, to 43% and from

:42:40. > :42:52.50% to 32% the year after. That's complicated, but it is good news.

:42:53. > :43:02.Just in case anybody wasn't sure, Mr Speaker.

:43:03. > :43:08.InI will also increase, I will also increase the rural rate relief to

:43:09. > :43:15.100%, giving small businesses in rural areas, a tax break worth up to

:43:16. > :43:19.?2,900 per year. Mr Speaker, in return for these highly-competitive

:43:20. > :43:29.tax rates, the tax base must be sustain bible. -- sustainable.

:43:30. > :43:33.We'll align the employee, employer threshold at ?1. 57 per week. There

:43:34. > :43:40.will be no cost to employees and the maximum cost to business will be an

:43:41. > :43:44.annual ?7.18 per employee. Insurance premium tax in this

:43:45. > :43:49.country is lower than in many other European countries and half the rate

:43:50. > :43:53.of VAT. In order to raise revenue, which is required to fund the

:43:54. > :44:00.spending commitments I am making today, it will rise from 10%

:44:01. > :44:04.currently, to 12% from next June. At the same time, I can confirm that

:44:05. > :44:09.the Government's commitment to legislate next year to end the

:44:10. > :44:14.compensation culture surrounding whiplash claims, a major area of

:44:15. > :44:19.insurance fraud and that will save drivers an average of ?40 on their

:44:20. > :44:22.annual premiums. Mr Speaker, technological progress is changing

:44:23. > :44:28.the way people live and the way they work. The tax system needs to keep

:44:29. > :44:33.pace. For example, the OBR has highlighted today the growing cost

:44:34. > :44:37.to the exchequer of incorporation. So, the Government will consider how

:44:38. > :44:42.we can ensure that the taxation of different ways of working is fair

:44:43. > :44:46.between different individuals doing essentially the same work and

:44:47. > :44:50.sustain the tax base as the economy undergoes rapid change. We will

:44:51. > :44:53.consult in due course on any proposed changes.

:44:54. > :44:57.In the meantime, the Government will take action now, to reduce the

:44:58. > :45:03.difference between the treatment of cash earnings and benefits. The

:45:04. > :45:08.majority of employees pay tax on a cash salary, but some are able to

:45:09. > :45:12.sacrifice salary by agreement with their employer, and pay much lower

:45:13. > :45:20.tax on benefits in kind. This is unfair. And, so, from April 2017,

:45:21. > :45:22.employers and employees who use these schemes, will pay the same

:45:23. > :45:31.taxes as everyone else. Following consultation with

:45:32. > :45:36.stakeholders, ultralow emission cars, pension savings, childcare and

:45:37. > :45:44.the cycle to work scheme will be excluded from this change. And

:45:45. > :45:52.certain long-term arrangements will be protected until April 20 21. For

:45:53. > :45:56.pensions that have been drawn down, I will also reduce the ?4000 the

:45:57. > :46:02.money purchase annual allowance to prevent inappropriate double tax

:46:03. > :46:06.relief being gained. This government, Mr Speaker, has done

:46:07. > :46:12.more than any other to tackle tax evasion, avoidance, and aggressive

:46:13. > :46:16.tax planning. And the UK tax gap, it may surprise some honourable members

:46:17. > :46:22.opposite to hear, is now one of the lowest in the world. But we must

:46:23. > :46:27.constantly be alerted to new threats to our tax base and be willing to

:46:28. > :46:31.move swiftly to counter them. At the budget we committed to removing the

:46:32. > :46:36.tax benefits of disguised earnings for employees. And I'm now going to

:46:37. > :46:40.do the same for the self-employed and employers, raising a further

:46:41. > :46:45.?630 million over the forecast period. We will shut down

:46:46. > :46:50.inappropriate use of the VAT flat rate scheme that was put in place to

:46:51. > :46:53.help small businesses. We will abolish the tax advantages linked to

:46:54. > :46:57.employee shareholder status in response to growing status that it

:46:58. > :47:01.is being primarily used for tax planning purposes by high earning

:47:02. > :47:07.individuals. And we will introduce a new penalty for those who enabled

:47:08. > :47:12.the use of tax avoidance scheme that HMRC later challenges and defeats.

:47:13. > :47:17.These measures and others set out in the Autumn Statement document raise

:47:18. > :47:22.around ?2 billion over the forecast period. Mr Speaker, there is

:47:23. > :47:28.understandable public concern that the pitch is tilted in favour of

:47:29. > :47:30.large multinational groups. Which are able to use cross-border

:47:31. > :47:36.structures to manage their tax liabilities. Following detailed

:47:37. > :47:43.concentration Daly consultation I can confirm we will implement a

:47:44. > :47:47.programme and reform the way that releases awarded for historic

:47:48. > :47:51.losses. These measured scored at the budget 2016 will help to ensure

:47:52. > :47:55.large businesses will always pay tax in years where they make substantial

:47:56. > :48:00.profits. It will also mean that businesses cannot avoid tax by

:48:01. > :48:05.borrowing excessively in the UK to fund their overseas activities. They

:48:06. > :48:10.take effect in April and raise over ?5 billion from the largest

:48:11. > :48:14.businesses in the UK. Mr Speaker, I said that the tax system must be

:48:15. > :48:19.fair, and that means rewarding those who work hard by helping them to

:48:20. > :48:23.keep more of what they earn. And there is one tax reform this

:48:24. > :48:28.government has pursued since 2010 that has done more than any other to

:48:29. > :48:33.improve the lot of working people, raising the tax-free personal

:48:34. > :48:42.allowance. When we entered government in 2010 it was ?6,475.

:48:43. > :48:48.Now after six years it is ?11,000 and will rise to ?11,500 in April.

:48:49. > :48:55.As a result we have more than halved the tax bill of someone of a salary

:48:56. > :49:01.with ?15,000 to just ?800. That is a massive boost to the incomes of low

:49:02. > :49:11.and middle earners. Since 2010 we have cut income tax for 38 million

:49:12. > :49:16.people and taken 4 million people out of income tax altogether. I can

:49:17. > :49:20.confirm today that despite the talent in fiscal forecasts we will

:49:21. > :49:25.deliver on our commitment to raising the allowance to ?12,500 and the

:49:26. > :49:33.higher rate threshold to ?50,000 by the end of this Parliament. Once

:49:34. > :49:37.that ?12,500 has been reached, Mr Speaker, the personal allowance will

:49:38. > :49:39.rise automatically during the 20 20s in line with inflation rather than

:49:40. > :49:45.the national minimum wage as currently planned. It will be for

:49:46. > :49:50.the Chancellor to decide from year to year where the moor is

:49:51. > :49:53.affordable. As well as taking millions of ordinary people out of

:49:54. > :50:00.tax, we are the government that introduced the National Living Wage.

:50:01. > :50:05.Gave a pay rise, Mr Speaker, to over a million workers. They don't like

:50:06. > :50:12.it. A Tory government gave a pay rise to over a million of the lowest

:50:13. > :50:18.paid workers. We are the government that introduced 15 hours a week of

:50:19. > :50:22.free childcare for all three and four-year-olds and will double that

:50:23. > :50:24.for working families from September. The government whose education

:50:25. > :50:28.reforms have raised standards and expanded opportunity with 1.4

:50:29. > :50:34.million more children now in good or outstanding schools. The new capital

:50:35. > :50:40.funding is provided today for grammar schools will help to

:50:41. > :50:44.continue that trend. And we, Mr Speaker, are the government had

:50:45. > :50:48.pledged to invest in our NHS, and we are delivering on that promise. Back

:50:49. > :50:56.in the NHS five-year forward plan for the future with ?10 billion of

:50:57. > :51:00.additional funding by the end of 2020-2021. But we recognise that

:51:01. > :51:06.more needs to be done to help families make ends meet and to

:51:07. > :51:08.ensure that every household has opportunities to prosper. So today I

:51:09. > :51:14.can announce that the National Living Wage will increase from

:51:15. > :51:25.?7.20, ?27.50 in April next year. That's a pay rise worth over ?500 to

:51:26. > :51:30.a full time work. Mr Speaker, creating jobs, lowering taxes and

:51:31. > :51:34.raising wages addresses directly the concerns of ordinary families. And

:51:35. > :51:39.the revenue raising measures that I've announced today enable me to go

:51:40. > :51:47.further to help families on low wages. Universal credit is an

:51:48. > :51:55.important reform to our benefit system and is designed to make sure

:51:56. > :51:59.that work always pays. We want to reinforce that position. I have

:52:00. > :52:05.considered carefully the arguments made by my right honourable friend

:52:06. > :52:10.'s and wake them colourfully against the fiscal constraints we are

:52:11. > :52:15.facing. -- weighed them carefully. I have concluded that from April we

:52:16. > :52:21.can reduce the universal credit data rate from 65%, to 63%. This is

:52:22. > :52:28.effectively a targeted tax cut worth ?700 million a year by 21-22 for

:52:29. > :52:35.those in work on low incomes. It will increase the incentive to work

:52:36. > :52:40.and encourage progression in work, and it will help 3 million

:52:41. > :52:45.households across our country. Mr Speaker, we believe that a market

:52:46. > :52:49.economy is the best way of delivering sustained prosperity for

:52:50. > :52:55.the British people. We will always support a market led approach. But

:52:56. > :52:59.we will not be afraid to intervene where there is evidence of market

:53:00. > :53:05.failure. We will look carefully over the coming months and the

:53:06. > :53:07.functioning of key markets including the retail energy market to make

:53:08. > :53:12.sure they are functioning fairly for all consumers. And in the private

:53:13. > :53:18.rental market, letting agents are currently able to charge unregulated

:53:19. > :53:26.fees to tenants. We've seen these fees spiral despite attempts to

:53:27. > :53:32.regulate them, often ?200. This is wrong. Landlords appoint letting

:53:33. > :53:38.agents and landlords should meet their fees. We will ban fees to

:53:39. > :53:43.tenants as soon as possible. And also, Mr Speaker, we will consult on

:53:44. > :53:47.how best to ban pensions cold calling and a wider range of

:53:48. > :53:51.pensions scams. We can also help today those who rely on income from

:53:52. > :53:56.modest savings to get by. Low interest rates have helped our

:53:57. > :53:59.economy recover but they've significantly reduced the interest

:54:00. > :54:06.people can learn on their cash savings. So we will launch a new

:54:07. > :54:10.market leading savings bond through endless and I. The detail will be

:54:11. > :54:14.announced at the budget, but we expect our new investment bond will

:54:15. > :54:20.have an interest rate of around 2.2% gross and a term of three years.

:54:21. > :54:27.Savers will be able to deposit up to ?3000, and we expect around 2

:54:28. > :54:32.million people to benefit. The announcements I have made today

:54:33. > :54:39.lower taxes on working people, boost wages, back Savers, and bear down on

:54:40. > :54:43.bills. In early 2017, we will begin the roll-out of tax free childcare

:54:44. > :54:49.across Britain providing up to ?2000 savings per child. Once rolled out,

:54:50. > :54:53.we pledge to keep it under review to ensure that it is delivering the

:54:54. > :54:59.support they need to working families. There is one further area

:55:00. > :55:05.of household expenditure where the government can help. The oil price

:55:06. > :55:11.has risen by over 60% since January and sterling has declined by 15%

:55:12. > :55:16.against the dollar. That means significant pressure on prices at

:55:17. > :55:20.the pumps here in Britain. So today we stand on the side of millions of

:55:21. > :55:29.hard-working people in our country by cancelling the fuel duty rise for

:55:30. > :55:33.the seventh successive year. In total this saves the average car

:55:34. > :55:43.driver ?130 per year and the average fan driver ?350 per year. This is a

:55:44. > :55:47.tax cut worth ?850 million next year, Mr Speaker, and means the

:55:48. > :55:56.current fuel duty frees is the longest for 40 years. Mr Speaker, I

:55:57. > :56:00.have one further announcement to make. This is my first Autumn

:56:01. > :56:05.Statement as Chancellor. After careful consideration and detailed

:56:06. > :56:12.discussion with the Prime Minister, I have decided that it will also be

:56:13. > :56:23.my last. Mr Speaker, I am abolishing the Autumn Statement. No other major

:56:24. > :56:29.economy makes hundreds of tax changes twice a year and neither

:56:30. > :56:34.should we. So the spring budget in a few months will be the final spring

:56:35. > :56:41.budget. Starting in autumn 2017 Britain will have an autumn budget

:56:42. > :56:45.announcing tax changes well in advance of the start of the tax

:56:46. > :56:55.year. From 2018 there will be a spring statement responding to the

:56:56. > :57:15.forecast... LAUGHTER Perhaps they should have read their

:57:16. > :57:19.briefing. What a great state of emotion, some people are very easily

:57:20. > :57:23.humoured, but we must hear the Chancellor. Perhaps they should have

:57:24. > :57:27.read their briefing because they might remember that Parliament has

:57:28. > :57:32.mandated the Office for Budget Responsibility to produce a report

:57:33. > :57:37.to Parliament twice a year and has mandated the government to reply to

:57:38. > :57:40.it. From 2018 there will be a spring statement responding to the forecast

:57:41. > :57:46.from the OBR but no major fiscal event. If unexpected changes in the

:57:47. > :57:51.economy require it I will of course reserve the right to announce

:57:52. > :57:55.actions at the spring statement, but I will not make significant changes

:57:56. > :58:02.twice a year just for the sake of it. This change will allow for

:58:03. > :58:07.greater parliamentary scrutiny of budget measures ahead of their

:58:08. > :58:13.implementation. Mr Speaker, this is a long overdue reform to our tax

:58:14. > :58:19.policy making process and brings the UK into line with best practice

:58:20. > :58:26.recommended by the IMF, the ISS, the Institute for government and many

:58:27. > :58:29.others. Mr Speaker, the OBR report today confirms the underlying

:58:30. > :58:34.strength and resilience of the British economy. This Autumn

:58:35. > :58:39.Statement responds to the challenge of building on that strength while

:58:40. > :58:44.also heeding the warnings in the OBR's figures as we begin writing

:58:45. > :58:50.this new chapter in our country's history. It restates our commitment

:58:51. > :58:57.to living within our means and sets out our choice to invest in our

:58:58. > :59:02.future. It sends a clear message to the world that Britain is open for

:59:03. > :59:07.business and it provides help to those who need it now. So, Mr

:59:08. > :59:12.Speaker, we have made our choices, we have set our course, we are great

:59:13. > :59:19.nation. Bold in our vision, confident in our strengths, and

:59:20. > :59:27.determined in our ambition to build a country that works for everyone.

:59:28. > :59:32.STUDIO: So that was the Chancellor. This is now the Shadow Chancellor's

:59:33. > :59:42.response. This morning we have heard the

:59:43. > :59:48.verdict from the trial following the tragic murder of Jo Cox. Jo Cox's

:59:49. > :59:54.murder robs this house of a fierce advocate for social justice and a

:59:55. > :59:59.passionate campaigner. Her killing was an attack on democracy itself.

:00:00. > :00:07.Our thoughts are with her family this morning. Mr Speaker, today's

:00:08. > :00:14.statement places on record the abject failure of the last six

:00:15. > :00:21.wasted years and offers no hope for the future. The figures speak for

:00:22. > :00:25.themselves. Growth, down. Wage growth, down. Business investment,

:00:26. > :00:38.down. And their own deficit target failed.

:00:39. > :00:49.The debt target failed. The welfare cap failed. We have heard today, Mr

:00:50. > :00:52.Speaker... If members on either side want to shout out, don't bother to

:00:53. > :00:59.stand because he won't be called. I say that two members on both sides.

:01:00. > :01:04.Stop it. It is juvenile, low-grade, and hugely deprecated by the public.

:01:05. > :01:12.Whose support we should be seeking and whom we should try to impress,

:01:13. > :01:17.not to repower. Thank you Mr Speaker. There will be more taxes,

:01:18. > :01:21.more debt, and more borrowing. The verdict could not be clearer. The

:01:22. > :01:28.so-called long-term economic plan has failed. As the Treasury is only

:01:29. > :01:33.leaked paper failed, the government knew it had failed before the

:01:34. > :01:36.referendum result was announced. And we now face Brexit. The greatest

:01:37. > :01:41.economic challenge of a generation and we face it unprepared and

:01:42. > :01:48.ill-equipped. The new Chancellor acknowledged the fact himself in

:01:49. > :01:54.October when he promised a reset of economic policy. So today we

:01:55. > :01:58.expected a change of direction after those six wasted years. Instead, we

:01:59. > :02:03.have seen further cuts to earnings for those in work to Universal

:02:04. > :02:08.Credit. And a living wage increase that is lower than expected under

:02:09. > :02:12.the previous Chancellor. This is a new Conservative leadership with no

:02:13. > :02:14.answers to the challenges facing our country following Brexit and no

:02:15. > :02:20.vision to secure our future prosperity. Just turning to Brexit,

:02:21. > :02:24.Labour respect the decision of the British people to leave the European

:02:25. > :02:31.Union. But the Celtic Tory handling of Brexit threatens the future

:02:32. > :02:34.prosperity of this country. The Chancellor must do the right thing

:02:35. > :02:41.for British workers and businesses and incest on full tariff free

:02:42. > :02:44.access to the single market. He and the Treasury know that's what will

:02:45. > :02:50.give the best deal for jobs and prosperity here. I will just say it

:02:51. > :02:55.may not be in the Chancellor's nature but I urge him to stand up to

:02:56. > :02:59.the Prime Minister and the extreme Brexit fanatics in her Cabinet. If

:03:00. > :03:04.he stands up for British businesses and jobs, fighting for single market

:03:05. > :03:17.access, he will have our full support. After six wasted years,

:03:18. > :03:21.wages are still lower than 2008. Self-employed people are on average

:03:22. > :03:24.paid less than a generation ago. 6 million people are earning less than

:03:25. > :03:29.the living wage. Too many people are having to worry about buying school

:03:30. > :03:35.uniforms, affording a family holiday or paying the rent and mortgage. We

:03:36. > :03:41.have had one month of briefing from the party opposite on those people

:03:42. > :03:44.who are called Just About Managing, the Jams. To the party opposite,

:03:45. > :03:52.these people are just a demographic. To us, they are our friends,

:03:53. > :04:01.neighbours and the people we represent. Let me tell you what they

:04:02. > :04:08.are, why they are just managing, it is the results of Tories imposing

:04:09. > :04:12.austerity on the economy that couldn't bear the strain. We have

:04:13. > :04:15.seen productivity stagnate. But there's nothing in this Autumn

:04:16. > :04:20.Statement on the scale needed to overturn those six wasted years. If

:04:21. > :04:23.the Chancellor really wants to make a fair tax system as well, we can

:04:24. > :04:31.start by bringing back the 50p rate for the very richest in our country.

:04:32. > :04:36.And it's familiar hollow rhetoric from the Tories on tax avoidance

:04:37. > :04:42.when they have cut the resources at HMRC, the very people who collect

:04:43. > :04:50.the taxes themselves. Resources available to HMRC today are 40% less

:04:51. > :04:53.than they were in 2000. The Chancellor has frozen in work

:04:54. > :05:00.benefits at a time when food prices are rising and we don't expect wages

:05:01. > :05:04.to keep up. We need an economy that is fundamentally more prosperous and

:05:05. > :05:10.where that prosperity is, yes, shared by all. The increase in the

:05:11. > :05:13.national living wage announced today is actually lower than expected and

:05:14. > :05:18.leave the poorest paid workers still earning less than they need to live

:05:19. > :05:23.on. So I ask the Chancellor to adopt a real living wage level as Labour

:05:24. > :05:27.has pledged to do and abandon his predecessors empty rhetoric.

:05:28. > :05:33.Regrettably, the Chancellor is still going ahead with some of the cuts to

:05:34. > :05:37.Universal Credit. Thanks to the pressure, I'd paid tribute to those

:05:38. > :05:40.MPs on all sides of the house who have campaigned on this issue,

:05:41. > :05:44.thanks to that pressure, is offering to soften the blow. We don't want to

:05:45. > :05:51.blow softened. We wanted lifted altogether. Today's changes will

:05:52. > :05:57.lead a single parent on average at least ?2300 worse off. These are the

:05:58. > :06:05.very people who are working hard to deliver for their families and the

:06:06. > :06:09.government is betraying them. As for the people on disability is put

:06:10. > :06:11.through the ordeal of the discredited work capability

:06:12. > :06:17.assessment, who are trying to get themselves ready to return to work,

:06:18. > :06:23.just about managing, they still remain in the Chancellor's firing

:06:24. > :06:27.line. Cutting ?30 a week from the support that these disabled people

:06:28. > :06:36.receive. It is scandalous. In our society. Those who are just about

:06:37. > :06:41.managing, also rely upon our public services. They send their children

:06:42. > :06:47.to local schools, they depend on their local hospital, they rely on

:06:48. > :06:50.their council services like cleaning the streets, tending to their parks

:06:51. > :06:56.and playgrounds, and opening their libraries. But the reality, is,

:06:57. > :07:01.after six wasted years, our public services are just not managing.

:07:02. > :07:06.Today the childcare that parents rely on remains underfunded as the

:07:07. > :07:08.Public Accounts Committee has reported and it will remain

:07:09. > :07:14.underfunded even after the announcements today. I want to pay

:07:15. > :07:18.tribute as well to the honourable members for Swansea East and

:07:19. > :07:22.Thamesmead for their important work in bringing the issue of child

:07:23. > :07:29.burial fees to public attention. And I ask the government to do the right

:07:30. > :07:31.thing in child burial fees and reconsider making funding available

:07:32. > :07:40.for families in these desperate circumstances. Councillors from all

:07:41. > :07:47.political parties are reporting that they are at a tipping point in the

:07:48. > :07:50.provision of social care. The previous Chancellor cut nearly ?5

:07:51. > :07:56.billion from social care meaning now that over 1 million people who need

:07:57. > :08:02.care are not getting it. They are not even just about managing, and

:08:03. > :08:07.they have got little help today. We call for additional support for

:08:08. > :08:13.social care. But the funding being provided today is only a stopgap

:08:14. > :08:17.measure. Our social care system will not be secured without long-term

:08:18. > :08:22.funding. Tonight, many elderly people will remain trapped in their

:08:23. > :08:27.homes isolated and lonely, lacking the care they need, because of this

:08:28. > :08:34.continuing cut to social care. You can't cut social care without also

:08:35. > :08:39.heading the NHS. The suppose it 10 billion funding allocated is a

:08:40. > :08:46.restatement of an earlier commitment but the health select committee

:08:47. > :08:51.described as trembling pound as, " misleading and incorrect -- ?10

:08:52. > :08:58.billion. The real amount is less than half that amount. The result,

:08:59. > :09:05.we now have 3.9 million people on NHS waiting lists. More than ever.

:09:06. > :09:11.Many of those at 3.9 million are waiting in pain and they have got no

:09:12. > :09:16.relief today. No relief today. Across the country, hospitals are

:09:17. > :09:19.facing losing their accident and emergency units, losing their

:09:20. > :09:24.maternity units, and losing their specialist units. This Tory

:09:25. > :09:29.government is failing patients and also failing the dedicated NHS staff

:09:30. > :09:35.that service them so well. This is the first time health care spending

:09:36. > :09:41.per head has declined since the NHS was created. I fear there will be a

:09:42. > :09:51.crisis in funding in care over this Christmas. The NHS cares for us. We

:09:52. > :09:54.should care for the NHS. On education, members of this

:09:55. > :10:01.government have also overseen the biggest real terms cuts in education

:10:02. > :10:07.for four decades. ?1 in every seven has been cut from college budgets

:10:08. > :10:11.and Conservative policy has saddled a generation of students with a

:10:12. > :10:15.lifetime of debt. How can a government seriously talk about

:10:16. > :10:22.supporting a 21st-century economy when they are planning to put tens

:10:23. > :10:25.of millions into the failed 20th-century policy of grammar

:10:26. > :10:33.schools? Segregating our children at an early age. On housing, the

:10:34. > :10:36.Chancellor announced today he is scrapping proposals on letting

:10:37. > :10:39.agents fees. This U-turn is a victory for Labour's campaign

:10:40. > :10:46.against both the tenant tax and letting fees. The Chancellor has

:10:47. > :10:51.spoken before the dream of home ownership for the young. Nothing

:10:52. > :10:57.announced today is the scale needed to suggest it will remain anything

:10:58. > :11:02.other than a dream. The hard facts are these. The government, of which

:11:03. > :11:08.he is a member, built fewer homes that anyone since the 1920s. They

:11:09. > :11:12.are now a third of the fuel -- there are a third of a million homeowners

:11:13. > :11:15.under 35. The Chancellor could have delivered today the scale of

:11:16. > :11:20.investment required to build the homes we need and create a new

:11:21. > :11:26.generation of home ownership. He significantly failed. I am grateful,

:11:27. > :11:33.as a result of the campaign from the honourable member, that the

:11:34. > :11:39.Wentworth building will be saved. I am grateful. The accusation was that

:11:40. > :11:43.a Labour government opened an opencast mine near to it and

:11:44. > :11:48.threatened it. That was a Labour government in 1947, I believe. I

:11:49. > :11:55.just wish... LAUGHTER

:11:56. > :12:00.I just wish... Some of the policies pursued by Tory governments since

:12:01. > :12:03.the 1950s could be reversed so easily. The biggest failure of

:12:04. > :12:10.investments is this. The Chancellor has failed to address properly this

:12:11. > :12:13.government's most consistent shortcoming. His predecessor cut

:12:14. > :12:18.public investment to the lowest it has been since the 1990s. Instead of

:12:19. > :12:22.delivering the ambitious investment this economy needs, across the whole

:12:23. > :12:26.country, the Chancellor has failed to recognise the scale of the

:12:27. > :12:31.challenge today. He also risks repeating the mistakes from last

:12:32. > :12:36.year with a national flood resilience plan failing to provide

:12:37. > :12:40.the protection our communities need. Just one in five of the project in

:12:41. > :12:47.the investment pipeline are under construction. And there are 82

:12:48. > :12:51.billion shovel ready projects still delayed. The infrastructure gap

:12:52. > :12:54.between London and the rest remains unbridgeable top London was

:12:55. > :12:59.scheduled to receive 12 times the public investment per head of the

:13:00. > :13:05.North East of England. But the 1.1 billion of investment in transport

:13:06. > :13:08.is a re-announcement, the Oxford to Cambridge rail link is delayed

:13:09. > :13:15.significantly against Network Rail 's original planned completion date

:13:16. > :13:21.of March 2000 and 19. There are just no new ideas here -- 2019. Just what

:13:22. > :13:27.they've previously failed to deliver on. This is press release policy and

:13:28. > :13:32.not provision. All we need now is the return of the high viz jacket.

:13:33. > :13:44.The fourth Industrial Revolution will not be delivered on delays, on

:13:45. > :13:46.old news and re-announcements. At last, the government has realised

:13:47. > :13:51.its mistake and now talk about an industrial strategy, words that

:13:52. > :13:57.ministers refused to even referred to in the past. But it isn't enough

:13:58. > :14:00.to just change a few ministerial titles. The government and the

:14:01. > :14:03.Chancellor need to deliver. But we have yet to see the proposed green

:14:04. > :14:09.paper on industrial strategy promised over the summer. The same

:14:10. > :14:15.government that no talks also of high-tech investment oversaw a ?1

:14:16. > :14:20.billion cut in real terms to funding in the last parliament for them the

:14:21. > :14:25.OECD recommends developed countries should be spending 3% of GDP on

:14:26. > :14:31.science. And what we have heard today, the new spending will lift

:14:32. > :14:36.our expenditure from 1.7% of GDP to a mere 1.8%. And it's the same

:14:37. > :14:40.familiar story for business. The Chancellor is continuing the race to

:14:41. > :14:46.the bottom on corporation tax while continuing to cut public services,

:14:47. > :14:52.the Chancellor is cutting taxes too busy business. -- big business. We

:14:53. > :14:55.know it's not the headline tax rate which encourage long-term investment

:14:56. > :15:00.from businesses. Business investment has been revised down every year

:15:01. > :15:02.under this government. What encourages business investment is

:15:03. > :15:09.knowing they have accessed as rule workers, world-class infrastructure

:15:10. > :15:13.and a major market. Today's grim economic forecast show the challenge

:15:14. > :15:18.ahead. The Chancellor admitted over the summer it was time for a change

:15:19. > :15:19.of course. He has now had to abandon his government's fiscal charter with

:15:20. > :15:33.its failed hard surplus Labour warned this would lack

:15:34. > :15:38.flexibility to adapt or economic circumstances and the capacity to

:15:39. > :15:45.allow investment. The U-turn today shows how right we have been over

:15:46. > :15:50.the last year. In conclusion, only weeks ago, the Prime Minister

:15:51. > :15:55.offered a hope of change. The Chancellor offered to reset economic

:15:56. > :16:00.policy. Today we have seen the very people the Prime Minister promised

:16:01. > :16:05.to champion betrayed. The Chancellor has failed to break with the

:16:06. > :16:08.economic strategy of posterity. The country remains unprepared and

:16:09. > :16:12.ill-equipped to meet the challenges are Brexit and ensure Britain's

:16:13. > :16:21.future as a world leading economy. After all the sacrifices people have

:16:22. > :16:25.made over the last six years, I feel today's statement has laid the

:16:26. > :16:28.foundations for more wasted years. Only a Labour government will

:16:29. > :16:39.deliver on the ambition and vision to rebuild and transform an economy

:16:40. > :16:46.so that no one and no community is left behind. Mr Speaker, can I first

:16:47. > :16:56.associate myself... We leave the House of

:16:57. > :17:05.Commons but debate on the Autumn Statement continues in the chamber.

:17:06. > :17:09.Let's take you through the headlines. We start with the growth

:17:10. > :17:15.forecast. A lot follows from this. They are now forecasting growth of

:17:16. > :17:23.2.1% a sheer, 1.4 next, 1.7, and then it goes back to 2.1, 2.1 and

:17:24. > :17:29.then 2021, they do not really know but they say 2%. A dip in the next

:17:30. > :17:32.two years and then back to trend in the outer years. Because of the dip

:17:33. > :17:37.there are implications for borrowing. In every year, the

:17:38. > :17:48.Chancellor has forecast more borrowing. 68 billion in 2016/17 and

:17:49. > :17:52.then 59 and then 46.5 in 21 /20 two. That is well over ?100 billion he

:17:53. > :17:59.plans to borrow between now and the start of the next decade. It then

:18:00. > :18:03.follows because of that that government debt rises. You borrow

:18:04. > :18:12.more, it all adds to the national debt. The national debt will now

:18:13. > :18:18.peek at 90% of GDP, just over, by 2017/ 18. That means that 12 years

:18:19. > :18:24.after the great crash, debt is still rising and only begins to fall after

:18:25. > :18:28.that. 12 years of rising debt as a percentage of GDP. The new target

:18:29. > :18:35.for debt now, though it is an old one as well, is to see it falling as

:18:36. > :18:41.a share of GDP by the end of this Parliament. So it peaks up to 90%.

:18:42. > :18:45.That is a lot of GDP and then begins to start to fall in the Algiers.

:18:46. > :18:56.Cyclic Lee adjusted borrowing should be below 2% there's the Chancellor

:18:57. > :19:01.by 2020. -- out years. He will start to get control of the deficit and

:19:02. > :19:06.get it down. The National Living Wage will rise to ?7 50 an hour next

:19:07. > :19:13.April. Fuel duty rise is cancelled. That seems to happen every year now.

:19:14. > :19:17.Universal Credit taper, a marginal rate of tax that people on welfare

:19:18. > :19:23.and working pay when they lose benefits and get more pay, that is

:19:24. > :19:30.seduced by a very small amount from 65% to 63. -- that is reduced. What

:19:31. > :19:34.was leaked in the papers this morning, the upfront letting agency

:19:35. > :19:38.fees are banned in England. They have already been banned in

:19:39. > :19:43.Scotland. A number of tax announcements. Corporation tax will

:19:44. > :19:49.fall as the Government has told us before to 17%. It is currently I

:19:50. > :19:55.think 20, maybe 19 has been reduced to, but it is going down to 17. He

:19:56. > :19:58.hopes to raise another 2 billion by targeting more tax avoidance

:19:59. > :20:10.schemes. That tends to be mentioned in every budget or Autumn Statement.

:20:11. > :20:13.Because he is looking at ways to raise more money and not see that

:20:14. > :20:16.deficit rise by even more, having to borrow more, he is increasing the

:20:17. > :20:19.insurance premium tax to increase from 10% to 12%. You will pay that

:20:20. > :20:24.from June of next year. On housing, we were told there would be a number

:20:25. > :20:30.of announcements on housing. He is putting in 1.4 billion to help build

:20:31. > :20:34.40,000 new affordable homes. That is spread over time. This year it was a

:20:35. > :20:40.very small number of affordable homes being built. He has also

:20:41. > :20:44.announced a 2.3 billion housing infrastructure fund to help build

:20:45. > :20:50.thousands of new homes. That is spread over a number of years. Right

:20:51. > :20:53.to buy was a policy of the previous Chancellor and of the Prime Minister

:20:54. > :20:59.but they are not going ahead across the country. They are going to look

:21:00. > :21:05.at a large scale regional pilot to allow housing association tenants to

:21:06. > :21:10.buy their homes. On transport, he is a former Transport Secretary, so we

:21:11. > :21:14.expected a fair bit on transport. He announced a 1.3 billion package to

:21:15. > :21:22.improve English local transport. Sounds a lot but it is only .08% of

:21:23. > :21:28.GDP. There will be 450 million for a trial of digital signalling on

:21:29. > :21:33.railways, 394 low emission vehicles. The kind of thing that chancellors

:21:34. > :21:39.always liked to pad out their budgets on their Autumn Statement

:21:40. > :21:42.is. There are consequences of these announcements for the rest of the

:21:43. > :21:47.UK. Under the devolution settlement is clad in Northern Ireland would

:21:48. > :21:52.get an extra 250 million a year, Wales 400 and Scotland 800 million a

:21:53. > :21:57.year. There is to be 1.8 billion from local growth elements for

:21:58. > :22:04.infrastructure in the English regions. New borrowing powers for

:22:05. > :22:08.mayoral combined authorities. The Government is trying to encourage

:22:09. > :22:13.big cities to have elected mayors. Saying if you do that and combined

:22:14. > :22:18.we will let you borrow more. For business, the Chancellor announced

:22:19. > :22:25.there was a 6.7 billion package to reduce business rates. This ?23

:22:26. > :22:29.billion for the new productivity investment fund over five years. How

:22:30. > :22:36.much of that is new money we will discuss. It works out at about 4.5

:22:37. > :22:41.billion a year. Looks a lot bigger when you save 23 billion. There will

:22:42. > :22:45.be an extra 400 million to unlock a billion funding for start up tech

:22:46. > :22:50.schemes. The kind of announcement we are used to seeing in these sort of

:22:51. > :22:54.events. Other measures, we have a lot of measures. The Chancellor said

:22:55. > :23:02.he was not going to make it a big deal but actually was. Billing

:23:03. > :23:10.funding for digital infrastructure, including 5G mobile. -- billion

:23:11. > :23:17.funding. Infrastructure will rise from 2020. That will leave the

:23:18. > :23:21.United Kingdom still quite low. What we have already heard from the Prime

:23:22. > :23:26.Minister, an extra 2 billion a year for research and develop and by

:23:27. > :23:33.2020. So, it slowly builds up in the rest of this decade. Another 2

:23:34. > :23:36.billion for our and D. Kind of infrastructure, productivity, trying

:23:37. > :23:42.to invest in the future. The Chancellor also announced that was

:23:43. > :23:46.the last Autumn Statement. Quite an historic event, you might think.

:23:47. > :23:50.Instead he said there would now be a spring statement, starting next

:23:51. > :23:56.year. So, what she will ask of the budget? That is moving to the

:23:57. > :24:00.autumn. So, in a way, nothing much really changes. We still have a

:24:01. > :24:09.statement and a budget, one each, every year. We are joined by the man

:24:10. > :24:15.who gets to mark the Chancellor's homework. We will come to him in a

:24:16. > :24:20.minute. Laura, give me your overview of what we have heard? It was a

:24:21. > :24:23.low-key presentation from a low-key Chancellor with quite a dramatic

:24:24. > :24:27.picture behind it. The dramatic picture that, instead of being in

:24:28. > :24:31.the black as was expected by the end of this Parliament, as the country

:24:32. > :24:35.will be much more in the red. The surplus has gone and will be well

:24:36. > :24:39.over more than 20 billion. The deficit still hanging around like a

:24:40. > :24:45.bad spell as we head into the next general election, if these forecasts

:24:46. > :24:50.are right. Borrowing is back. This looks very different from the

:24:51. > :24:55.planned George Osborne put forward just a few short months ago. The

:24:56. > :24:59.straitjacket on public spending is a bit looser. Those new rules, not

:25:00. > :25:07.that different to those of Ed Miliband. Philip Hammond made a

:25:08. > :25:10.concerted effort to try to show the long-term plan, long-term

:25:11. > :25:13.infrastructure by his long-term ambitions for the economy. There was

:25:14. > :25:17.a Conservative effort to make this add up to a political narrative. I

:25:18. > :25:23.am not sure how convincing this is as a set of measures that will

:25:24. > :25:27.really help people out there who, as Theresa May has identified, are just

:25:28. > :25:32.managing to get by. Nothing very dramatic on the giveaway site. A lot

:25:33. > :25:40.of drama on how the picture has changed. The thing that struck me,

:25:41. > :25:44.he is now saying grows... OBR is saying economic growth will be 2.1%

:25:45. > :25:49.this year, then it full is to one point for next year and 1.7 is

:25:50. > :25:55.forecast the year after. Then it rises back up again to over 2%. His

:25:56. > :26:00.financial position deteriorates because of the two coming years. If

:26:01. > :26:04.the OBR is wrong and if it turns out that growth stays at around 2% to

:26:05. > :26:11.almost every one of these figures he has given us today will turn out not

:26:12. > :26:18.to be true. You are right. These are only forecasts. We are in an

:26:19. > :26:22.incredibly uncertain period of time. It is not about giveaways or micro

:26:23. > :26:29.economic issues. It was huge in macro terms. Those new debt to GDP

:26:30. > :26:33.ratios are very high, going over 90% in three years' time. It shows the

:26:34. > :26:37.Government will have to borrow a lot more. Its total borrowing amount by

:26:38. > :26:48.the end of the forecast period will be just under ?2 trillion. Just

:26:49. > :26:52.under. If our economy grows rapidly, and lots of economists say it is

:26:53. > :26:57.perfectly sustainable, not maybe at 90% but as long as you have a

:26:58. > :27:01.falling proportion of debt in proportion to GDP, that is

:27:02. > :27:05.sustainable. What the Government has done as well, those new targets for

:27:06. > :27:12.what Philip Hammond said were balancing the books, are flexible to

:27:13. > :27:16.put it benignly. They could be possibly meaningless, to put it more

:27:17. > :27:25.aggressively. They said they wanted to bring the budget back to balance

:27:26. > :27:30.as early as possible in the next Parliament. Don't we all. One of

:27:31. > :27:36.those rubber conditional words, possible, of course. One interesting

:27:37. > :27:39.bit within the Office for Budget Responsibility's economic outlook is

:27:40. > :27:45.they have done a whole chapter on what they call the no referendum

:27:46. > :27:50.counter factual. What with their forecast have looked like if we had

:27:51. > :27:56.not voted to leave the European Union? What does it say? It does say

:27:57. > :28:04.that directly related to the referendum results, it suggests that

:28:05. > :28:11.borrowing of ?3.5 billion this year, nearly ?10 billion next year, ?15.4

:28:12. > :28:14.billion in 2018/ 19th is attributable to the referendum

:28:15. > :28:19.result because it suggests, it says that the referendum means there will

:28:20. > :28:24.be a negative impact on the economy. The OBR, if it were concerned about

:28:25. > :28:30.plunging into the debate, what effect would Brexit have questioned

:28:31. > :28:34.it has not shown it in its work. It has put numbers on borrowing, stuck

:28:35. > :28:38.them on the table and said everyone can have an argument about that.

:28:39. > :28:41.There will be a huge argument and discussion about how much of the

:28:42. > :28:46.picture changing is down to the vote to leave the European Union.

:28:47. > :28:52.Fascinating leak at the start of his statement Philip Hammond placed in

:28:53. > :28:57.that context. He said his statement was a consequence for the decision

:28:58. > :29:01.we have made. He himself was quite clear, the decisions he has made are

:29:02. > :29:11.down to the decision we have all made. About oil prices and other

:29:12. > :29:15.global issues, they are in desperate not central. On the previous

:29:16. > :29:20.forecast we were meant to borrow just over 55 billion this financial

:29:21. > :29:26.year. Next year we were meant to borrow just under 39 billion and it

:29:27. > :29:30.will now be 59 billion. And so it goes on. Is this deterioration in

:29:31. > :29:40.our this school position worse than you thought it would be? -- fiscal

:29:41. > :29:45.position. I think the OBR has been relatively optimistic compared with

:29:46. > :29:50.the Bank of England. Figures up to 2020 are more optimistic on the

:29:51. > :29:53.growth side and the public finances side. In terms of public finances

:29:54. > :29:57.overall, numbers are very close to the numbers we put out a couple of

:29:58. > :30:04.weeks ago in terms of our expectations. If they are more

:30:05. > :30:07.optimistic on the growth side, and they may not be optimistic enough,

:30:08. > :30:13.why does the borrowing deteriorate by so much? It is only 20 billion

:30:14. > :30:18.behind where it was for the next couple of years.

:30:19. > :30:25.borrowing is very sensitive to growth of the those aren't terribly

:30:26. > :30:28.surprising relationships. There is clearly, as the OBR state, other

:30:29. > :30:34.things going on, which has created problems and in particular this

:30:35. > :30:38.year, the Chancellor has got even less in income tax revenues than he

:30:39. > :30:42.expected to do, even given what happened to growth and wages and so

:30:43. > :30:46.on. One of the things the OBR have drawn attention to Anna Chancellor

:30:47. > :30:51.mentioned, he would consult on, this whole issue of what you might call

:30:52. > :30:58.people who are no longer getting money as earnings, but instead are

:30:59. > :31:02.self-employed or incorporating and if you are self-employed and

:31:03. > :31:05.particularly if you call yourself a small company, you pay quite a bit

:31:06. > :31:09.less tax than if you are an employee for the same amount of income,

:31:10. > :31:15.something the OBR worried about in March. They seem to be worrying

:31:16. > :31:19.about a lot more now. In a nerdy way, the Chancellor said he was

:31:20. > :31:24.going to consult on changing the tax system or the way we define what is

:31:25. > :31:30.self employed and that could have a big effect. The inflation figures

:31:31. > :31:33.were interesting from the OBR because compared to the Bank of

:31:34. > :31:40.England, they are not that bad. Inflation peaking at 2.5% in 2018.

:31:41. > :31:47.If wage growth was to stay the way it is now, 2.3%, would be just a

:31:48. > :31:52.little bit above, and then it falls down to 2%. If that is true, you

:31:53. > :31:55.wouldn't get the same squeeze on real living standards that many had

:31:56. > :31:58.feared because of the fall of the pound, and therefore maybe not the

:31:59. > :32:04.same impact on growth. It wouldn't be so bad. Clearly the higher the

:32:05. > :32:09.inflation is, the worse it is for living standards and the OBR along

:32:10. > :32:13.with the bank is expecting a direct pass through into higher prices, a

:32:14. > :32:21.bit less, but not that much less than the bank is expecting. If it

:32:22. > :32:28.does turn out that we get prices at 2.5% and wages, 2.3%, in historical

:32:29. > :32:33.terms, it's terrible. We usually see prices rising 2%, not 0.2%.

:32:34. > :32:37.Irrespective of what happened on June 23, we've already had eight

:32:38. > :32:44.years essentially with no growth in real earnings and... This could be a

:32:45. > :32:48.return to it. It looks like we have got several more years of that and

:32:49. > :32:51.we may well end up by the end of this decade with earnings no higher

:32:52. > :32:57.than they were at the beginning of the decade. We have never seen that

:32:58. > :33:05.before, certainly not since the war. Is it clear, so far, for the Just

:33:06. > :33:10.About Managing, this new popular phrase, is it clear that the Just

:33:11. > :33:15.About Managing are going to be any better off as a result of this?

:33:16. > :33:18.There's not a lot here in terms of measures for the group. We do of

:33:19. > :33:23.course have a national living wage rising to ?7 50 an hour in April,

:33:24. > :33:28.quite a big increase on the minimum wage as it was a year ago. That will

:33:29. > :33:34.help a lot in that group. Otherwise, we have got a small increase in the

:33:35. > :33:41.generosity of Universal Credit when it finally comes in but nowhere near

:33:42. > :33:46.offsetting the cuts announced back in June 2015, and no doubt we will

:33:47. > :33:49.also be told against freezing fuel duties will help that group although

:33:50. > :33:55.most of the money will go to better off people who tend to consume more

:33:56. > :34:00.fuel, more petrol. There's not an enormous amount here I think for

:34:01. > :34:04.that. We need to leave it there but we thank you for the initial

:34:05. > :34:07.reaction for that we look forward to the more considered one tomorrow

:34:08. > :34:11.when you have had a chance to go through the figures on that. Lets

:34:12. > :34:20.get reaction to the Chancellor's statement from Simon Jack. Thanks,

:34:21. > :34:24.Andrew. We have been monitoring the pound, usually the most sensitive

:34:25. > :34:29.market to economic announcements like this and it started rising and

:34:30. > :34:34.then falling and we've ended up pretty much back where we were. It's

:34:35. > :34:39.a surprise because those borrowing numbers were more horrible than we

:34:40. > :34:45.were expecting, ?122 billion more in debt over the five-year period. That

:34:46. > :34:51.announcement that as a percentage of GDP will hit 90% in 2017-18 is the

:34:52. > :34:55.highest it's been for 50 years. Given we were gloomy about growth

:34:56. > :34:59.forecasts and those numbers are sensitive to those GDP numbers, but

:35:00. > :35:13.perhaps it's not that surprising we braced ourselves for the worst.

:35:14. > :35:16.First of all, on that big picture, 90% debt to GDP looks like a

:35:17. > :35:21.horrible number. It is a horrible number and that's why people have

:35:22. > :35:27.been constrained here. The surprising thing for me is the

:35:28. > :35:31.growth forecast into the future. Although there is a huge amount of

:35:32. > :35:35.uncertainty underpinning those, they are a bit better than people had

:35:36. > :35:40.feared. A little bit more optimistic than some had feared but also what

:35:41. > :35:43.was quite interesting in a statement from the OBR, they were looking at

:35:44. > :35:49.how they came up with those assumptions, factoring in Brexit,

:35:50. > :35:53.and they were clearly saying they thought trade volumes would be lower

:35:54. > :35:57.and there would be a cost to Brexit. Yes, that is what they are factoring

:35:58. > :36:02.in as one of the high inflation and the impact it will have on consumer

:36:03. > :36:07.spending. It is those two things combined but maybe not as much of a

:36:08. > :36:11.hit as people in the city had forecast for those numbers to be.

:36:12. > :36:14.It's always thought you got to have a credible plan about debt and what

:36:15. > :36:19.he said today was his going to balance the books as early as

:36:20. > :36:24.possible in the next Parliament. Is that good enough? We will see from

:36:25. > :36:29.the Stirling chance, and moved. He's in a difficult position trying to

:36:30. > :36:32.engender growth in a period of great uncertainty, we don't know quite

:36:33. > :36:39.what Brexit will bring as well as all the global phenomena going on. I

:36:40. > :36:46.think it is a tough ask. There are other things other than Brexit

:36:47. > :36:50.affecting the dynamic growth. Simon, a big emphasis on infrastructure and

:36:51. > :36:58.productivity. That presumably chimed in with you. Yes, it's all tied

:36:59. > :37:03.together and that figure, 30% less productive, in Britain than Germany

:37:04. > :37:07.or USA, it's a real problem. What we know about this Chancellor,

:37:08. > :37:11.addressing that is his number one priority and a lot of what we've

:37:12. > :37:17.seen today is about that and he tied that into the infrastructure,

:37:18. > :37:22.digital, housing, transport, and we are disappointed there's nothing on

:37:23. > :37:29.capital allowances, the annual investment allowance because that

:37:30. > :37:33.improves productivity. It's not as ambitious as might have been.

:37:34. > :37:39.Ambition to invest here and now over the next year for businesses who are

:37:40. > :37:44.uncertain and hesitant because we are being cautious. This'll be the

:37:45. > :37:48.last Autumn Statement and will now be an autumn budget and then a

:37:49. > :37:54.spring statement. This will be the big one. We will have a small

:37:55. > :37:57.announcement in spring. If he doesn't tinker with things in

:37:58. > :38:01.spring, we have one big budget a year and that's good for business

:38:02. > :38:06.because this continual tinkering as to the workload for businesses. Yes,

:38:07. > :38:10.it's to be welcomed, the fact you're going to an autumn budget gives

:38:11. > :38:14.businesses more time to plan for the incoming tax year than they've had

:38:15. > :38:19.with a Spring Budget. I think the fact we won't have fiscal events as

:38:20. > :38:26.they are called the whole time, has to be good. One thing I thought I

:38:27. > :38:31.heard was the death knell of the triple lock saying it was safe until

:38:32. > :38:36.the end of 2020 but given changes in longevity might need looking at. Did

:38:37. > :38:40.you hear that for pensions? I thought there was a hint of that, it

:38:41. > :38:44.will be reviewed, and this is favouring a part of the community

:38:45. > :38:48.which has been favoured a lot over the last ten years and we need to

:38:49. > :38:54.address more to young people struggling in their first houses. On

:38:55. > :39:00.the house-building, we got what we expected. Yes, and it will need to

:39:01. > :39:05.be a continuing priority. We say it's freeing up planning regulation

:39:06. > :39:08.that will really help people. Sue and Simon, thank you very much

:39:09. > :39:13.indeed. The markets took this in their stride despite these horrible

:39:14. > :39:21.numbers, people were expecting much gloomier growth forecasts. The city

:39:22. > :39:27.today was braced for that news. Thank you, Simon. Let's speak to the

:39:28. > :39:31.Chief Secretary to the Treasury. Welcome to the special programme. We

:39:32. > :39:37.have got slower growth, higher inflation, weaker tax revenues,

:39:38. > :39:43.squeezed living standards, spectacularly high borrowing. What

:39:44. > :39:47.is the good news? It shouldn't come as surprise to anyone as they go

:39:48. > :39:50.through a period of transition following the Brexit vote, that

:39:51. > :39:54.there are challenges for the economy. I think the key thing is

:39:55. > :39:59.that the government responds as is necessary. We have given ourselves

:40:00. > :40:03.greater flexibility for that we are taking steps to improve

:40:04. > :40:08.productivity. We're also doing this in a way that maintains credibility

:40:09. > :40:13.in our public finances. How can it be credible? It's only November. In

:40:14. > :40:19.March this year, you told us what he planned to borrow for the next five

:40:20. > :40:25.years. You are now going to borrow ?122 billion more than you told us

:40:26. > :40:30.you would borrow six or seven months ago. That is the OBR's estimate and

:40:31. > :40:36.they are clear in their explanation as to why that is. They

:40:37. > :40:40.predominantly put that down to the consequences of the Brexit vote. And

:40:41. > :40:47.the uncertainty that follows from that leading to reduced investment

:40:48. > :40:52.and therefore slower growth over this period of time. Than also some

:40:53. > :40:58.structural challenges we face about different ways of working and the

:40:59. > :41:02.fact it brings in fewer tax receipts than we would otherwise have, so,

:41:03. > :41:05.yes, we face challenges but the difference between March and

:41:06. > :41:12.November, quite a lot hasn't happened between them. In 2010, you

:41:13. > :41:17.told us he would balance the budget by 2015. That didn't happen. By

:41:18. > :41:21.2015, you told us it would balance the budget by 2020. That's not going

:41:22. > :41:27.to happen. Now you can't tell us when it's going to be balanced.

:41:28. > :41:32.Correct? Circumstances have changed. The OBR said, had we had the Brexit

:41:33. > :41:38.vote go the other way, they say we would still be on course to have a

:41:39. > :41:41.surplus by 2019-20 but the circumstances are no different and

:41:42. > :41:46.we have to respond to those circumstances and that's exactly

:41:47. > :41:51.what the Chancellor set out to do. Do you feel, being in a government,

:41:52. > :41:54.supposedly a fiscally conservative government, that, by the end of this

:41:55. > :42:04.decade, we will probably have increased the national debt to

:42:05. > :42:11.macro-?2,000,000,000,000? -- ?2 trillion. You have to look at why

:42:12. > :42:16.that has happened. We inherited an economy where we borrowed a record

:42:17. > :42:22.amount. What was a national debt when you inherited it? Debt has gone

:42:23. > :42:27.up, Andrew, very significantly over a period of time. Debt is

:42:28. > :42:32.essentially the team elation of borrowing. We brought borrowing down

:42:33. > :42:35.through a period of time which has been a festival difficult because of

:42:36. > :42:41.a performance of the world economy, we actually wear on course to

:42:42. > :42:47.eliminate the deficit by the end... We will never know now. That is what

:42:48. > :42:52.the OBR said today. You are doing more than doubling the national

:42:53. > :42:55.debt. Well and trillion when you came to powerful that it could

:42:56. > :43:05.easily be macro-2,000,000,000,000 by 2020. -- 2 trillion by 2020. It has

:43:06. > :43:10.inflicted huge austerities on this country and yet you still have 2

:43:11. > :43:15.trillion debt. In other countries, people would be resigning over these

:43:16. > :43:19.figures. What is the argument, Andrew? We have done too much or

:43:20. > :43:22.done too little because other critics often say you have cut too

:43:23. > :43:27.much and there's been too much austerity and then complain about

:43:28. > :43:30.the fact... The argument is you haven't done what you have said you

:43:31. > :43:36.would done. We've made a number of difficult decisions that has brought

:43:37. > :43:39.our deficit down by almost two thirds full there was a time I

:43:40. > :43:45.remember in 2010 when people thought we have to bring the IMF into

:43:46. > :43:51.bailiffs out. Really? I do remember that. Ken Clarke and George Osborne

:43:52. > :43:56.said at a press conference a few days before the general election. I

:43:57. > :44:03.can remember others as well. The point is we faced a crisis in 2010

:44:04. > :44:06.but restored credibility. That was six years ago and you're still

:44:07. > :44:13.borrowing more than ever. Because of the scale of the challenge we face

:44:14. > :44:17.today. We did maintain the confidence of the markets in the UK,

:44:18. > :44:22.which is not a given in 2010. I'm sure you would agree. Now we face

:44:23. > :44:29.new challenges for the question is, how does the government sort this

:44:30. > :44:32.out? Should we chase the 2010 surplus target? A la judgment is

:44:33. > :44:39.that the wrong thing to do, it would be too harsh on the economy given

:44:40. > :44:42.the uncertainty we now face. This is an entirely pragmatic sensible

:44:43. > :44:47.response to the circumstances we are in and that involves borrowing more

:44:48. > :44:55.for economic infrastructure. ?23 billion. You are borrowing 122

:44:56. > :44:58.billion more. As Andrew are suggesting, you have been failing

:44:59. > :45:03.your own tests and the location from today is you are go into the next

:45:04. > :45:08.general election unable to tell the general public when you will balance

:45:09. > :45:12.the books. We are unable to say when we will balance the books at this

:45:13. > :45:18.point as the Chancellor made clear, the rule is we will have the

:45:19. > :45:24.structural deficit below 2% by the end of this Parliament at this

:45:25. > :45:27.point. What we are saying is we will be in overall surplus at some point

:45:28. > :45:34.in the next Parliament. As soon as possible.

:45:35. > :45:39.Our viewers should not expect going into the next general election

:45:40. > :45:44.without being able to tell the public when you will have balanced

:45:45. > :45:49.the books. What we will be able to say by the time we get to 2020 is

:45:50. > :45:54.difficult to judge at the moment. We are entering into a period of

:45:55. > :45:56.uncertainty. The intention is to eliminate the overall deficit as

:45:57. > :46:05.soon as possible in the next Parliament. We should have that

:46:06. > :46:10.flexibility at the moment. By 2020 you will give a much more definite

:46:11. > :46:14.signal to the public who voted for you on the basis you are there to

:46:15. > :46:20.fix the public finances. The answer is, we do not know at this stage. We

:46:21. > :46:25.are going into a period of uncertainty. It is right, during a

:46:26. > :46:31.period of uncertainty, the pragmatic thing is to have that flexibility to

:46:32. > :46:38.respond to events. Where we will be by 2020, of course, we don't

:46:39. > :46:44.precisely know. George Osborne said a debt to GDP ratio of 90% was not

:46:45. > :46:49.sustainable. That is the bigger your going to hit next year. Presumably,

:46:50. > :46:53.it is not sustainable. One of the factors in now, as the Chancellor

:46:54. > :46:58.made clear, our debt numbers are made worse by some of the

:46:59. > :47:01.allegations of the Bank of England operations, which are necessary. I

:47:02. > :47:06.am making the point that has boosted the debt number. There is an

:47:07. > :47:12.important point that we do have to bring down debt. I would like to

:47:13. > :47:16.bring debt down earlier and faster but we have to respond to the

:47:17. > :47:21.circumstances that exist in the economy. The circumstances that

:47:22. > :47:24.exist at the moment, a period of uncertainty whereby we need

:47:25. > :47:29.flexibility to respond. That is what the Chancellor is saying. That is a

:47:30. > :47:32.pragmatic response to the circumstances. One intriguing hint

:47:33. > :47:35.towards the end of the statement. The Chancellor suggested the

:47:36. > :47:42.governance might look at spending protections for some departments. In

:47:43. > :47:46.other words can he was suspect he might lose the triple lock on

:47:47. > :47:51.pensions and get rid of the ring fence on NHS spending. They have

:47:52. > :47:55.made commitments for this parliament which the Chancellor reaffirmed. We

:47:56. > :47:59.always make these commitments Parliament by Parliament. That was a

:48:00. > :48:03.pretty clear hint they have a sell by date. The commitments we will

:48:04. > :48:09.make for the next Parliament will be made at the next spending review.

:48:10. > :48:13.They are not to be made now. At the point of the next spending review we

:48:14. > :48:19.will have to look at how the economy is doing and what is affordable. Let

:48:20. > :48:23.me ask you, that just about managing classes. Your government is the one

:48:24. > :48:29.that puts them at the centre of everything. They are just about

:48:30. > :48:33.managing. Is it not clear, from everything that is happening to the

:48:34. > :48:38.economy in what was announced today, that at the end of this decade, the

:48:39. > :48:44.just about managing classes will be worse off than they are today? I

:48:45. > :48:51.don't think it is just about clear. If you look at it, we have just had

:48:52. > :48:55.a period of time where growth in living standards have actually been

:48:56. > :48:59.pretty high, the last couple of years in particular we have seen

:49:00. > :49:04.living standards growing very fast. It is the case, given that we are

:49:05. > :49:09.likely to see higher inflation, there will be a squeeze over the

:49:10. > :49:14.next couple of years. And benefits are frozen. From 2018, we will see

:49:15. > :49:21.earnings rising again. That is what the OBR is predicting. Let's get

:49:22. > :49:26.this point clear. Even if inflation does not cover as badly as you

:49:27. > :49:31.think, it does not matter for them. The benefits of frozen. Whatever the

:49:32. > :49:35.inflation rate, they are worse off. I think what you will find I

:49:36. > :49:39.appreciate not having a chance to go through all the numbers yet but what

:49:40. > :49:42.you will find with the information we have, living standards will be

:49:43. > :49:49.higher by the end of this parliament and they were at the beginning. I

:49:50. > :49:56.would suggest to you, minister, just about managing. People who really

:49:57. > :50:00.fit into that working families needing Universal Credit to top up

:50:01. > :50:04.because they are not being paid enough to be able to survive. They

:50:05. > :50:11.get some extra welfare benefits and they are still just about managing.

:50:12. > :50:14.Even when you take into account the rise in the National Living Wage

:50:15. > :50:19.that is planned, the income tax cuts. Some of them, come out of

:50:20. > :50:24.income tax altogether. Free childcare as we have talked about.

:50:25. > :50:31.Working families will be, on average, ?800 worse off by the end

:50:32. > :50:36.of the decade. ?1300, when you take in the impact of the benefit freeze.

:50:37. > :50:44.I am not sure I recognise those numbers. One of the things we have

:50:45. > :50:50.announced today has been in -- reduction of the tape are rate. 2p.

:50:51. > :50:55.To give an example, a couple with the highest earner on 30,000, two

:50:56. > :51:04.children, the housing element of Universal Credit, they will benefit

:51:05. > :51:09.from the 2p matter by ?420 a year. I have taken the 2% take that into

:51:10. > :51:14.account. The fact is, whatever way you cut it, working families on

:51:15. > :51:21.Universal Credit will be worse off by the end of this decade. You could

:51:22. > :51:27.argue that may be one of the prices that has to be paid to stop

:51:28. > :51:31.borrowing get way out of hand. Your government may do just about

:51:32. > :51:34.managing the centrepiece of this government and they will be worse

:51:35. > :51:41.off. I don't particularly recognise those numbers but it is important to

:51:42. > :51:45.say, coming back to our earlier conversation, we do have to get

:51:46. > :51:50.public finances under control. You have raised perfidy fairly criticism

:51:51. > :51:55.of you should be going faster. We have to strike a balance between

:51:56. > :52:02.critical credibility, reducing the deficit but also ensuring we have an

:52:03. > :52:10.economy that can withstand this and help the just about managing. You

:52:11. > :52:13.cannot say you're going to make the just about managing the centrepiece

:52:14. > :52:22.of your policies and they end up most. -- worse off. Let me make this

:52:23. > :52:27.point. One of the ways in which, ultimately, we raise living

:52:28. > :52:32.standards, and we have an economy which can afford world-class public

:52:33. > :52:35.services, it is by ensuring we have stronger productivity. That is a big

:52:36. > :52:41.focus of what the Chancellor was saying today. About productivity and

:52:42. > :52:43.research and development and transport infrastructure and

:52:44. > :52:48.housing. These are all measures which can ensure the UK economy can

:52:49. > :52:52.grow more and prosper more, improve productivity and wages and salaries.

:52:53. > :52:58.That is ultimately the way in which you help all of the people in this

:52:59. > :53:03.country. That is very clearly what the Chancellor was arguing today. I

:53:04. > :53:09.was going to say, the problem you have with that today, is Number 10,

:53:10. > :53:12.the Prime Minister has set up a political aspiration, her political

:53:13. > :53:17.aspiration, that she will help people directly and feel it in their

:53:18. > :53:21.pockets. The Chancellor may feel it is better to prioritise the

:53:22. > :53:24.long-term economy and infrastructure but you have a mismatch. The

:53:25. > :53:29.rhetoric of the Prime Minister and the reality of what this statement

:53:30. > :53:32.has put forward. I do not accept that. When you look at what we have

:53:33. > :53:38.just announced in terms of the Universal Credit taper, if you look

:53:39. > :53:43.at what we have done with fuel duty and all of the things in terms of

:53:44. > :53:48.housing, the additional ?1.4 billion for affordable housing, those are

:53:49. > :53:53.all measures that are going to help ordinary, working class families in

:53:54. > :53:59.a period of uncertainty and difficulty, which we can discuss the

:54:00. > :54:05.reasons behind that a little bit. It is a balance has to be struck. The

:54:06. > :54:09.long-term credibility of our public finances. The long-term growth of

:54:10. > :54:15.the economy through better infrastructure, etc come and also

:54:16. > :54:19.helping the British public through potentially a difficult year or two.

:54:20. > :54:25.The Chancellor has struck that balanced very well today. Meanwhile,

:54:26. > :54:29.the just about managing will have to continue just about managing. Thank

:54:30. > :54:31.you for being with us. I know it is a busy day for you as well as the

:54:32. > :54:33.Chancellor. Let's go back to Jo

:54:34. > :54:44.Coburn in Portsmouth. Andrew, I am sheltering underneath a

:54:45. > :54:52.child catamaran, here at the home of where they build this racing vote in

:54:53. > :54:55.Portsmouth. One of the points that would have been very relevant for

:54:56. > :55:00.this part of the UK was when Philip Hammond said he felt too much

:55:01. > :55:04.economic growth have been focused on London and the south-east at the

:55:05. > :55:09.expense of cities like Portsmouth. Who better to discuss that point

:55:10. > :55:13.with them than Donna Jones, the Conservative leader of Portsmouth

:55:14. > :55:17.City Council. How big is that gap between cities like Portsmouth and

:55:18. > :55:21.London and the South East? Here in Hampshire and the Isle of Wight we

:55:22. > :55:25.have a productivity gap with the remainder of the south-east of

:55:26. > :55:29.England and even greater into the tens of billions if compared to

:55:30. > :55:32.London. I do welcome some of the announcements today. Was that money

:55:33. > :55:36.is needed in the north of the country to make the economy grow, we

:55:37. > :55:42.also need infrastructure in the south-east as well. Have you been

:55:43. > :55:48.jealous of the northern Powerhouse? Could something like that be done

:55:49. > :55:51.here? We have been working on a sale and combined authority. The money

:55:52. > :55:58.that comes through from government to enable local authorities to build

:55:59. > :56:03.motorways. Key infrastructure is vital. How badly do you need new

:56:04. > :56:07.roads and new infrastructure? The Tunstall talked about new

:56:08. > :56:17.investment. It does not sound like much. -- the Chancellor. We are

:56:18. > :56:22.still in an austerity programme and have a deficit nationally. I welcome

:56:23. > :56:24.the announcement for the ?3.7 billion has been announced for

:56:25. > :56:31.infrastructure to aid housing delivery and roads specifically. We

:56:32. > :56:34.have not had any investment in rail infrastructure since the 60s and we

:56:35. > :56:41.need to rebuild part of the motorway in Portsmouth. To deliver the

:56:42. > :56:46.thousands of homes we need to build, we need some more infrastructure in

:56:47. > :56:50.roads and rail. Otherwise you cannot deliver those homes? It makes it

:56:51. > :56:58.difficult. What about affordable housing? This is much less than is

:56:59. > :57:04.actually needed across the country. It is a very good start. I welcome

:57:05. > :57:06.the fact the Chancellor has taken a pragmatic approach to budget

:57:07. > :57:15.neutrality, today making the announcement that we will not repeat

:57:16. > :57:20.a budget neutral position by 2020 but it will be achieved at some

:57:21. > :57:25.point beyond that. I think that is realistic. I have looked at the OBR

:57:26. > :57:30.forecast for the next five years. Today was a very sensible budget. We

:57:31. > :57:34.need more money and growth infrastructure. The keyword for me

:57:35. > :57:42.is a ramp built. Build more homes were build more roads and create

:57:43. > :57:47.over 500,000 new jobs. -- around Guild. You said you would welcome

:57:48. > :57:51.flexibility in terms of balancing the books. What does that mean about

:57:52. > :57:57.the state of public finances which will affect you as a council? There

:57:58. > :58:01.have been upsides and downsides. I welcome the increase in the personal

:58:02. > :58:09.allowance for tax payers. Taking over 2 million people out of tax

:58:10. > :58:16.with the increased to ?11,500 by 2018. Putting money back into

:58:17. > :58:20.pockets. The increase in the National Living Wage will have an

:58:21. > :58:22.effect. We do have people through care contracts we award looking

:58:23. > :58:27.after elderly people who will be paid around the living wage and that

:58:28. > :58:32.will have a slight effect on our balance sheets. John McDonnell said

:58:33. > :58:39.was nothing from his perspective boosting social care and never be

:58:40. > :58:43.more pressure on the NHS. We were anticipating an increase in the

:58:44. > :58:49.adult care precept. I think that announcement may come in the next

:58:50. > :58:52.b-day. It was not included today in the Chancellor's budget but that is

:58:53. > :58:58.the sort of thing that we will be looking very closely at, the details

:58:59. > :59:03.of the implications from today's Autumn Statement. Donna mentioned

:59:04. > :59:07.the families who will just be managing. Those who are only just

:59:08. > :59:12.about managing to pay their bills, pay their rent is, perhaps pay

:59:13. > :59:16.mortgages. Let's talk to our personal finance experts, Ruth

:59:17. > :59:20.Alexander, about some of the issues affecting them. Was there much in

:59:21. > :59:24.this budget to help those who are just about managing? There was a

:59:25. > :59:27.little bit. I do not think anyone will see their lives massively

:59:28. > :59:31.transformed by what was announced. We would talking about the personal

:59:32. > :59:36.allowance increasing. That was announced before. It is the point at

:59:37. > :59:45.which you have to pay tax. It will increase to ?12,500. ?12,500 by the

:59:46. > :59:50.end of the Parliament. By 2020, 20 21. It will take some people out of

:59:51. > :59:58.tax altogether and help others. The higher rate tax threshold will go to

:59:59. > :00:02.?50 million -- ?50,000 by the end of parliament. It will help savers. At

:00:03. > :00:06.the moment you cannot get any sort of decent interest rate on savings.

:00:07. > :00:11.It is so hard. The Government has said it will have a market leading

:00:12. > :00:15.savings bond. Most of the detail will be in the budget that they

:00:16. > :00:20.expect it will have an interest rate of 2.2% of that not a huge amount.

:00:21. > :00:27.You will be able to save up to ?3000. The fact that fuel duty will

:00:28. > :00:33.be frozen for the seventh year in a row will be good news to anyone

:00:34. > :00:39.worried it could get a bit higher. I had an e-mail from Kate Hugh asks,

:00:40. > :00:43.will wages for 16-17 -year-olds increase? Yes, but I'm not sure this

:00:44. > :00:48.is the news she was hoping for. I'm afraid by just 5p an hour. The

:00:49. > :00:51.reason she was asking is there's been a lot of talk and in fact it

:00:52. > :00:57.was confirmed that the national living wages going to go up for

:00:58. > :01:03.people who are aged 25 and over. That is going from ?7 20 up to ?7 50

:01:04. > :01:06.from April. It sounds good but earlier in the year it is expected

:01:07. > :01:13.it would go up a little bit more. So that's not great. Daniel and Darren

:01:14. > :01:17.have asked, letting agents fees, when will the fees coming? It's

:01:18. > :01:22.going to be as soon as possible. Darren is renegotiating a contact at

:01:23. > :01:28.the moment and they want to charge a fee for that. He says, does this

:01:29. > :01:32.mean I won't have to do? When do you think we will find when that will

:01:33. > :01:37.come in? As soon as possible, maybe in the next month or so. Of course,

:01:38. > :01:40.the bigger news Philip Hammond announced was that this will be the

:01:41. > :01:46.last ever Autumn Statement. Back to you, Andrew.

:01:47. > :01:52.We are in mourning here for it. But we are buoyed by the idea that there

:01:53. > :01:54.will be a spring statement instead. Viewers in Scotland leave us now for

:01:55. > :02:02.more on the impact of the Autumn Statement. If you are just joining

:02:03. > :02:07.us, wondering what happened, let's give you a recap from the Autumn

:02:08. > :02:11.Statement, the first major financial statement by the new Chancellor

:02:12. > :02:17.Philip Hammond. Economic forecast. The government is predicting debt,

:02:18. > :02:24.our total national accumulated debt, will reach 90% of our overall wealth

:02:25. > :02:30.of GDP by 2017-18. Borrowing is going to increase. The idea of a

:02:31. > :02:33.budget surplus is not going to be reached by the end of this decade.

:02:34. > :02:41.Indeed, there is no word when it will be reached now. The growth

:02:42. > :02:46.forecast is falling to 1.4% next year. They get a little bit better

:02:47. > :02:50.the year after that and then rise again so next year the OBR, a lot of

:02:51. > :02:56.pressure on the OBR to see the growth forecast right, because a lot

:02:57. > :03:00.has fallen from it. Main measures the Chancellor announced, the

:03:01. > :03:06.National living wage will rise to ?7 50 an hour by April. That was in the

:03:07. > :03:14.pipeline so no surprise there. Fuel duty rises, cancelled. The seventh

:03:15. > :03:20.year in a row. He's cancelled the automatic rise in fuel duty.

:03:21. > :03:26.Insurance Premium Tax will increase to 12%. It's one of the taxes

:03:27. > :03:31.chancellors think they can nudge up without anybody noticing too much

:03:32. > :03:36.until the and arrives. He announced 23 billion for a new national

:03:37. > :03:42.productivity investment fund and that is spread over five years but,

:03:43. > :03:49.by the end of five years, there will be several billion more going into

:03:50. > :03:59.productivity investment. A few other measures, Universal Credit taper is

:04:00. > :04:03.reduced from 65-63p for every ?1. A marginal adjustment for those who

:04:04. > :04:08.lose benefits. Another 1.4 billion to help 40,000 new homes, only in

:04:09. > :04:15.England, but that's a problem because it is spread over a number

:04:16. > :04:21.of years. Northern Ireland, 250 million, Wales, 400, Scotland, 800.

:04:22. > :04:27.As we said earlier, the Autumn Statement is being abolished. Which,

:04:28. > :04:34.for people like me, is a very sad day indeed. We have got a spring

:04:35. > :04:41.statement instead so hurray for that. Lets go back to Joanna on

:04:42. > :04:49.College Green. Yes, thank you for that with metres Tim Farron and Tim

:04:50. > :04:53.reckless. We heard from the Chancellor talk about the underlying

:04:54. > :05:00.resilience of the economy and eye watering levels of debt and the

:05:01. > :05:04.figure is ?122 billion additional borrowing. How would you assess the

:05:05. > :05:09.state of the nation 's finances from what you have heard? I think we have

:05:10. > :05:12.just seen the epitaph of the fact over the last five months all of the

:05:13. > :05:16.good work we did on financial stability in the coalition has been

:05:17. > :05:22.undone and the Chancellor will say he had no alternative but the OBR's

:05:23. > :05:31.figure is 220 billion. Brexit means an increase of unemployment, lower

:05:32. > :05:36.growth, lower living standards and spiralling debt. If we believe that

:05:37. > :05:39.this is a disaster Britain should avoid, particularly the hard Brexit

:05:40. > :05:43.nobody voted for, but we deserve better than the white flag the

:05:44. > :05:49.Labour Party is waving this afternoon. I would say if the

:05:50. > :05:54.epitaph for the 3 million jobs like, people like Tim Farron telling us 3

:05:55. > :05:57.million jobs would be at risk if we left the EU and receive the official

:05:58. > :06:04.forecast for unemployment, after we're left the EU is just 860,000.

:06:05. > :06:12.What about those debt figures, ?122 billion of borrowing extra, GDP not

:06:13. > :06:17.doing as well as anticipated, and the overall level of debt not going

:06:18. > :06:21.down? The growth forecast is reasonably good but the government

:06:22. > :06:24.is borrowing too much. They talk a tough game on austerity but their

:06:25. > :06:31.words are not matched with deed. What would you say? We will

:06:32. > :06:37.accelerate leaving the European Union. Every month we are in, it's

:06:38. > :06:40.?1 billion we have to pay. A cliff edge fall in our contributions are

:06:41. > :06:45.no more contributions to the EU after the set December 2018

:06:46. > :06:52.according to the statement. We like to make savings on overseas aid,

:06:53. > :06:56.humanitarian disaster relief, scrap HS2, look at the green subsidies and

:06:57. > :07:01.bleeding of the public finances in order. What we have discovered in

:07:02. > :07:10.terms of the black hole within the Chancellor's budget, 220 -- ?220

:07:11. > :07:15.million, that increases attacks across the board and at the same

:07:16. > :07:18.time, since the 23rd of June, it seems every day has been a good day

:07:19. > :07:22.to bury bad news and the worst news has been within the national health

:07:23. > :07:26.and social care services. There wasn't an extra penny given to the

:07:27. > :07:32.NHS today. The problem is, whilst we head towards a hard Brexit which

:07:33. > :07:37.nobody voted for, and an exit from the single market, we are seeing

:07:38. > :07:43.less income into the Exchequer, less money for the health service and

:07:44. > :07:50.schools. The savings Mark Reckless talks about? I admire him for

:07:51. > :07:56.carrying on repeating what was on the side of our bus. It's a delight

:07:57. > :08:01.to hear somebody standing by it but you're the only person on the planet

:08:02. > :08:05.is still believes that. We have had some truth today. The gap between

:08:06. > :08:09.what we could have had and will have is a quarter of ?1 trillion over

:08:10. > :08:13.this parliament. Can you imagine the number of nurses, doctors, social

:08:14. > :08:16.workers, teachers, police officers and soldiers we could pay for if

:08:17. > :08:25.this government hadn't gone for a hard Brexit nobody voted for? What

:08:26. > :08:27.would happen to the economy at Brexit had not happened? You talk

:08:28. > :08:33.much about it increase in unemployment and it's going the

:08:34. > :08:36.other way. ?220 billion hole in the public finances, we will see what

:08:37. > :08:40.that will lead to. The worst thing in the world is to be in opposition

:08:41. > :08:46.wanting things to go badly to prove your case. I don't want that. I want

:08:47. > :08:50.Britain to be strong which is why I think his announcement on

:08:51. > :08:54.infrastructure, are actually encouraging at a time of low

:08:55. > :08:59.interest rates. We should be spending but the problem is that

:09:00. > :09:03.because of making a choice of hard Brexit but nobody voted for, he has

:09:04. > :09:06.put himself in a position where that good work you could be doing on

:09:07. > :09:12.infrastructure investment will be swamped and dwarfed other black hole

:09:13. > :09:18.he is creating. We are in a period of complete uncertainty and

:09:19. > :09:21.unpredictable it in terms of these predictions we are hearing today and

:09:22. > :09:27.predictions are not always right. We don't really what the impact will be

:09:28. > :09:31.once Britain leads the youth. We had the Treasury suggesting six months

:09:32. > :09:35.ago telling us if we left, unemployment would be 1.2 million,

:09:36. > :09:42.1.3 million next year and now we hear from the independent office

:09:43. > :09:49.from budget was once ability, it will be 860,000. We get more

:09:50. > :09:54.certainty that contribution to the EU budget stopped in 2018 assembler,

:09:55. > :09:57.and there are no tariffs going forward with the European Union so

:09:58. > :10:02.that's good news in terms of official position and business can

:10:03. > :10:05.plan on the business they won't be tariffs with the EU and we have

:10:06. > :10:11.savings online and the outlook is pretty good. A wonderful piece of

:10:12. > :10:17.spin. The reality is the one figure we can't ignore, it is obvious,

:10:18. > :10:21.there are 500 million consumers in the European Union in a single

:10:22. > :10:25.market, the largest most prosperous market on earth, and a major reason

:10:26. > :10:29.for that enormous black hole it it will affect every public service,

:10:30. > :10:35.family in this country, because Britain is heading outside of that

:10:36. > :10:39.single market so to access it is nonsense for that North Korea has

:10:40. > :10:41.got the access to the single market. Membership will be the difference in

:10:42. > :10:48.this country floundering and growing. Tariff free access to the

:10:49. > :10:53.single market is probably what would agree is desirable. Why would that

:10:54. > :10:56.happen without freedom of movement? According to the official forecast,

:10:57. > :11:02.it will and they don't expect revenue from tariffs which would be

:11:03. > :11:09.far more from us than us and it's not in interest. I don't that will

:11:10. > :11:13.happen. What we have heard today and the fact that the borrowing figures

:11:14. > :11:16.are where they are, would the last years of austerity of being a waste

:11:17. > :11:21.of time because people out there will think I have been hit so hard

:11:22. > :11:25.and the nation 's finances are still in a state? For five years, the Lib

:11:26. > :11:29.Dems not making ourselves popular in the process, fought to make sure

:11:30. > :11:33.there was famous while we put the lid on excessive spending to get the

:11:34. > :11:38.finances in order. The last five months, completely undone the fourth

:11:39. > :11:42.reputation for fiscal responsibility is out the window as a consequence.

:11:43. > :11:46.It is more depressing for the people around the country who have suffered

:11:47. > :11:50.the consequences of that and, yes, austerity... It's nothing about what

:11:51. > :11:57.may come if we don't maintain membership of the single market. A

:11:58. > :12:01.soft Brexit if possible. Give the British people a say on the final

:12:02. > :12:05.terms. The Chancellor says he can afford to do what he's doing because

:12:06. > :12:10.of the reputation hilltop with austerity and the management of the

:12:11. > :12:15.economy. He is putting out these new fiscal rules. What do you think of

:12:16. > :12:18.those? We've been asking for some time and that's what we encourage

:12:19. > :12:26.when we were in government. The problem is, the good stuff in this

:12:27. > :12:29.Autumn Statement, essentially the investment in our infrastructure,

:12:30. > :12:34.it's far too small, it is dwarfed by is needed, and also massively

:12:35. > :12:40.dwarfed by the enormous black hole and damage done by the impending

:12:41. > :12:46.hard Brexit which nobody voted for. The infrastructure spend is too

:12:47. > :12:48.small a. Lets get on the shovel ready local projects, improve the

:12:49. > :12:53.Manchester to Liverpool line, scrap the tolls on the crossings of the

:12:54. > :12:59.Severn Bridge, the Mersey Tunnel and the Dartford Crossing, and we can

:13:00. > :13:04.pay for that by cutting HS2, as you'd think in a juju, reduce

:13:05. > :13:11.overseas aid and makes an savings. Thank you both very much. Back to

:13:12. > :13:16.you, Andrew. Thanks, Laura, what are the politics

:13:17. > :13:20.of this? How will this go down with a Tory backbenchers? In a funny way,

:13:21. > :13:25.they may have some irritation on both sides of the Eurosceptic right

:13:26. > :13:32.end and also those more liberal conservatives. The sort of tweaking

:13:33. > :13:35.of the cuts to Universal Credit don't make much difference and there

:13:36. > :13:40.has been a lot of strong feeling on the Tory benches about making that

:13:41. > :13:46.change in order to make that message about helping people who are having

:13:47. > :13:48.a good hard time ring true. At the other end, some people really

:13:49. > :13:54.believe the Tories should have gone further and harder in cutting the

:13:55. > :13:57.first time around and the idea of pushing out paying down the deficit

:13:58. > :14:02.even further is also not going to be very popular. More broadly, though,

:14:03. > :14:07.I think we are in a period where the Tory backbenchers are maybe a bit

:14:08. > :14:11.grumpy around the edges but not massively restive. Broadly, I don't

:14:12. > :14:16.think there is going to be uprisings and public theory to any great

:14:17. > :14:20.extent about today. You have discovered an interesting figure.

:14:21. > :14:24.Buried in one of the document is a figure for how much it might cost

:14:25. > :14:27.Whitehall to go through the process of us leaving the European Union.

:14:28. > :14:32.There's been a lot of concern in recent days about how many civil

:14:33. > :14:37.servants we will need, is Whitehall up to it? The statement reveals

:14:38. > :14:44.expect ?412 million to be the cost just in Whitehall of getting through

:14:45. > :14:47.our departure from the EU. Nothing to do with a potential consequences

:14:48. > :14:53.for the economy. Actually what it will cost central government to get

:14:54. > :14:58.this done. At a time they have to look for savings all over the place,

:14:59. > :15:06.a billion quid just on admin, quite a big lot of money. To what extent,

:15:07. > :15:12.you are a new Chancellor, so maybe you have a benchmark, get the worst

:15:13. > :15:17.out first. And everything gets better. Should we look at it like

:15:18. > :15:25.that? Absolutely. He's like a new Chief Executive. You come in, you

:15:26. > :15:29.make sure that your bottom line, you're not going to minute belated,

:15:30. > :15:34.but it is as gloomy as possible because then things can look better.

:15:35. > :15:42.I don't think Philip Hammond will be looking to the headlines tomorrow or

:15:43. > :15:47.tonight, or next month, but don't forget 2020, and a general election,

:15:48. > :15:50.we just chatted with the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, who did

:15:51. > :15:57.not rule out making that budget balance target much more distinct

:15:58. > :16:01.either time of 2020. He had a vague notion about it now but by the

:16:02. > :16:09.election, he could be more confident about where things are going.

:16:10. > :16:15.The Government cannot let cuts and people on benefits take more of the

:16:16. > :16:19.pain. George Osborne was getting to the point where the Conservative

:16:20. > :16:23.Party were clear on voting down many of his tax credit changes. Philip

:16:24. > :16:29.Hammond needs to be a Chancellor who does what very few chancellors have

:16:30. > :16:32.managed to do over the decades and improve our economic performance

:16:33. > :16:36.will improve productivity. The other thing can not just about managing

:16:37. > :16:40.families are people getting onto the housing ladder, they have announced

:16:41. > :16:45.the group policies around house-building they hope will

:16:46. > :16:49.kick-start the housing market. These are incredibly slow, long-term,

:16:50. > :16:54.deeply entrenched problems. Philip Hammond knows in his gut they will

:16:55. > :17:04.be the test of his Chancellor ship rather than the state of the public

:17:05. > :17:14.finances. Let's get more political reaction now.

:17:15. > :17:32.We will go to the SNP Stuart Hovey. Every little helps. There is a 15,

:17:33. > :17:40.16% capital cut. All of that is helpful. The big story today was the

:17:41. > :17:43.way in which the 2010 promised to be fulfilled in 2015 numbers in

:17:44. > :17:47.deficit, debt and borrowing will not be met and the end of this

:17:48. > :17:51.Parliament. In the caves of the debt figure, not at all for it confirms

:17:52. > :17:57.what we have been saying for some time this decade of posterity has

:17:58. > :18:07.been an unmitigated disaster if the intention were to turn the numbers

:18:08. > :18:11.around -- austerity. Scotland's deficit is about 10% of GDP cost you

:18:12. > :18:17.are not really in a position to lecture the Chancellor, are you?

:18:18. > :18:27.Most of Scotland's con is run from London. -- economy is run from

:18:28. > :18:33.London. Whilst useful, it is not the whole amount, far from it. The

:18:34. > :18:37.deficit is driven by economic policy here. I am delighted that the

:18:38. > :18:44.Chancellor has changed tack by some extent. You must have seen some of

:18:45. > :18:50.this money coming. Have you given any thought as to how you will spend

:18:51. > :18:55.it? There were lots of rumours about what he might do in terms of

:18:56. > :19:00.capital, in terms of releasing the purse strings or not releasing the

:19:01. > :19:04.purse strings. Lots of mixed messages. The Government will

:19:05. > :19:07.determine before the Scottish Government budget does with the

:19:08. > :19:14.money and when they will get it. I am in no position to spend Scottish

:19:15. > :19:18.Government finances. I understand that. You have some new welfare

:19:19. > :19:23.powers and you have been highly critical of the Government's

:19:24. > :19:29.approach to disabled claimants. Would you start to top up these

:19:30. > :19:34.amounts herself in Scotland? That is a set of measures to be announced in

:19:35. > :19:38.the budget precisely how the powers are used and what level of

:19:39. > :19:43.mitigation might be possible in certain circumstances. I would not

:19:44. > :19:48.want to prejudge a budget statement that has not been made in Holyrood.

:19:49. > :19:53.That would be completely wrong. I understand that. Do you think some

:19:54. > :19:57.of your supporters would be blamed if they felt disappointed you are

:19:58. > :20:02.not rushing ahead to use the new powers you have? You seem to be

:20:03. > :20:07.taking your time overtaking them up, having campaigned so aggressively

:20:08. > :20:11.for them. As the First Minister has said, we will take the powers when

:20:12. > :20:16.offered and use them when we are able. The welfare system needs to be

:20:17. > :20:21.put into place to look to deliver a Social Security system that is fit

:20:22. > :20:26.for purpose. Given we have just had a UK statement, it might be slightly

:20:27. > :20:29.better to remind ourselves what he did today in terms of Social

:20:30. > :20:33.Security was change the taper, the amount of money people can take

:20:34. > :20:38.before they start to lose their benefits by 2p in the pound. On the

:20:39. > :20:48.minimum wage but that is about 14p an hour, not a king's runs and might

:20:49. > :20:50.be to turn lives around. What about the City deal? I understand every

:20:51. > :20:58.city in Scotland will now have a city deal? We have been calling for

:20:59. > :21:05.this. Fans have been laid. I spoke to the team a month ago. -- plans.

:21:06. > :21:11.What is done with that in terms of outcome and jobs needs to be fully

:21:12. > :21:17.packaged. That is a sellable deal. We will need to make sure that is

:21:18. > :21:22.delivered in full and on time. I am sure that Dundee, Perth and Angus

:21:23. > :21:33.and East Fife will benefit greatly from it. An extraordinary job has

:21:34. > :21:38.been done. Congratulations to them. Let's get more reaction from our

:21:39. > :21:42.business editor. The cities have been very important in the Autumn

:21:43. > :21:46.Statement given the post Brexit situation. Let's go back to Simon

:21:47. > :21:50.Jack. We have been looking at markets and how they have been

:21:51. > :21:54.reacting to what they have heard. The big thing today is what the

:21:55. > :22:01.public finances will look like. We have 90% debt as a percentage of GDP

:22:02. > :22:04.in 2017/18, the highest it has been for 50 years of this chart here

:22:05. > :22:11.tells us what the Government has to pay to borrow money over ten years.

:22:12. > :22:17.It has gone from 1.36% this morning to 1.4%. In fixed income terms, in

:22:18. > :22:25.bond terms, that is a big move. We are close to a total debt bill of

:22:26. > :22:36.people to see what they have taken away from the Autumn Statement.

:22:37. > :22:42.First of all, what jumped out at you from today's statement? Thinking of

:22:43. > :22:46.our front page tomorrow, it has to be the underlying economic

:22:47. > :22:52.conditions. It seems to be and in case of increased debt. Borrowing

:22:53. > :22:57.will be back. Almost Keynesian in some levels. Huge pledges of

:22:58. > :23:01.investment in certain sectors. Lower growth, lower tax receipts and

:23:02. > :23:05.higher borrowing. There were not huge numbers of rabbits out of the

:23:06. > :23:10.hat. There were some cheeky tax rises. We have had some angry

:23:11. > :23:15.insurance company bosses on the phone about a particular tax rise

:23:16. > :23:20.from 10% to 12% on insurance premiums. Gloomy, underlying

:23:21. > :23:23.economic conditions. He said the target to eliminate the deficit went

:23:24. > :23:29.at other windows some time ago. That was unrealistic. The new target to

:23:30. > :23:33.balance the books sometimes in the next parliament, or as as soon as

:23:34. > :23:42.possible. Osborne had his fiscal rules and failed to meet those.

:23:43. > :23:51.Hamilton has created several more. -- Hammond. The debt has been

:23:52. > :23:54.described as eye watering. It is an eye watering situation. Those are

:23:55. > :24:02.the conditions we have to operate in. A big emphasis on the spending

:24:03. > :24:05.he did announce today. A big emphasis on infrastructure and

:24:06. > :24:13.productivity. What did you make of it? A welcome down payment on future

:24:14. > :24:16.productivity of the economy. ?23 billion fund focusing on local

:24:17. > :24:24.infrastructure. That was something new. Local pinch points. Unlocking

:24:25. > :24:27.of regional growth. Plans announced on Monday with research and

:24:28. > :24:32.development. Also the developer had of new ideas in the UK. And of

:24:33. > :24:38.course broadband. That is something businesses are talking a lot about

:24:39. > :24:42.in terms of productivity. Also, unlocking the housing piece of this

:24:43. > :24:45.is difficult without roads and infrastructure to support new

:24:46. > :24:52.building. There was a renewed focus on that. Did you hear enough? We

:24:53. > :24:54.were pleased to see that. And was a connection between housing and

:24:55. > :24:59.transport and a commitment to building new homes. All types of

:25:00. > :25:03.different homes. Some emphasis on ownership has been replaced by

:25:04. > :25:09.recognition that there needs to be a range of different kinds of housing.

:25:10. > :25:13.That was very good news. I did not hear keeping the capital allowances

:25:14. > :25:17.piece very high for businesses. That is the tax-free amount they can

:25:18. > :25:22.invest in new plant, machinery and processes. He could have gone

:25:23. > :25:26.further. Given we have the downgrade for next year, close to the CBI

:25:27. > :25:30.forecasts that you are facing uncertainty. Businesses are facing

:25:31. > :25:34.higher prices coming through. There was nothing in now for the

:25:35. > :25:40.short-term investment picture. We think the Chancellor should have a

:25:41. > :25:45.watching brief on that. No further cuts to corporation tax. There was

:25:46. > :25:49.chat that if we want the lowest corporation tax in the world and Mr

:25:50. > :25:56.Trump cuts it, we would go lower than 17, which is the aspiration

:25:57. > :26:02.through this Parliament to 15. Izzy your -- do you think it is not

:26:03. > :26:06.uppermost in your minds? Business it would rather the business road map

:26:07. > :26:09.was confirmed and the 17% is confirmed. And not hearing huge

:26:10. > :26:14.calls for it to go lower. We are hearing for some of the investment

:26:15. > :26:18.allowances and incentives to invest on the infrastructure challenges to

:26:19. > :26:24.be to hire up on the left bank Corporation tax. I heard Christian

:26:25. > :26:29.saying the triple lock is saved till 2020 but then we will have to think

:26:30. > :26:33.again. He hinted at that. Given the enormous fiscal consolidation which

:26:34. > :26:37.is pencilled in, that is code for cuts down the line. If there is a

:26:38. > :26:40.serious suggestion they will do that at the same time as telling

:26:41. > :26:44.pensioners we are coming for your perks, I am not sure anyone in

:26:45. > :26:51.government wants to go into an election even if facing Jeremy

:26:52. > :26:55.Corbyn, with those kinds of pledges. Thank you both. Government borrowing

:26:56. > :26:59.costs getting a bit more expensive today as we look to a bleaker fiscal

:27:00. > :27:03.picture going forward. The pound is pretty steady but the city was

:27:04. > :27:07.braced for gloomy economic forecasts and that is what they got.

:27:08. > :27:13.We can get Labour's view on the statement.

:27:14. > :27:16.Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury Rebecca

:27:17. > :27:27.We carried John McDonnell's critique to the Autumn Statement in full. Do

:27:28. > :27:32.you want to balance the books? Certainly. We would have liked to

:27:33. > :27:37.have seen more certainty from the Chancellor today. He has abandoned

:27:38. > :27:41.George Osborne's suppers rule, which we thought was in achievable but he

:27:42. > :27:47.has not given us a date in terms of bringing down the deficit. We have a

:27:48. > :27:53.fiscal credibility rule. George Osborne is to couple capital

:27:54. > :27:57.expenditure with public spending. We would separate that. You would not

:27:58. > :28:01.need to borrow in terms of public spending. That would come out of tax

:28:02. > :28:09.receipts. Capital expenditure would be kept separate. At the same time,

:28:10. > :28:13.you would bring down the deficit. You are promising to spend a lot

:28:14. > :28:18.more on current spending. You have called for the reversal of the

:28:19. > :28:24.Universal Credit cuts, at least 3 billion. You want much more money

:28:25. > :28:28.for the NHS and full social care. That is a multi-billion current

:28:29. > :28:32.spending as well. There are a number of other areas in welfare you where

:28:33. > :28:35.you want to spend more or restore the cuts that have been made. I

:28:36. > :28:40.don't understand McGivern you're going to add all of that to current

:28:41. > :28:48.spending, when you would balance that. We would not have cut capital

:28:49. > :28:53.gains tax or slashed inheritance tax for the most wealthy in society and

:28:54. > :28:59.expected the most vulnerable in society having to shoulder the

:29:00. > :29:04.burden. In terms of raising further revenue through taxes, we have a tax

:29:05. > :29:09.avoidance transparency programme that we would enforce. How much

:29:10. > :29:13.would that raise? ?5 billion is what the Government intends to recoup.

:29:14. > :29:21.Pundits outside of government estimate anything between 70 billion

:29:22. > :29:25.to 130 billion going out of the country in terms of tax avoidance.

:29:26. > :29:29.We would have to examine that. The problem we have at the moment is the

:29:30. > :29:34.Government is getting back on the resources it has within HMR see. It

:29:35. > :29:37.is cutting the number of offices it has and employees in each

:29:38. > :29:42.department. In order to get an accurate vision on how much money we

:29:43. > :29:46.are using each year, the Government does not have those resources. We

:29:47. > :29:52.would make sure that HMRC was adequately resourced. In terms of

:29:53. > :29:57.increasing tax revenue, we must surely get productivity levels up.

:29:58. > :30:01.The OBR report today at horrific productivity predictions yet again.

:30:02. > :30:05.The title referred to in his speech can match the fact he appreciated

:30:06. > :30:09.there was a productivity problem. Something is not going well for this

:30:10. > :30:12.government. They are not investing in industry infrastructure or

:30:13. > :30:16.creating the high-paid, high skilled jobs of the future which would

:30:17. > :30:22.result in future tax returns for the Government. Why do you want to

:30:23. > :30:25.balance the books? It is fiscally responsible to so do. You cannot

:30:26. > :30:28.pluck money from the money tree. It is responsible for the Government to

:30:29. > :30:38.invest in the future. What other government does it,

:30:39. > :30:41.balance the books around the western world? There are a number of fiscal

:30:42. > :30:47.positions taken by other governments around the world. It's difficult to

:30:48. > :30:54.pinpoint particular governments who have a 0% deficit. Germany. They

:30:55. > :31:01.have had a long-term strategy. As I look at Italy, France, Spain, United

:31:02. > :31:07.States, they are not planning to balance the books. I wondered why...

:31:08. > :31:11.No, it's fiscally responsible to balance the books but can't do it at

:31:12. > :31:12.the expense of not investing in the future and your future

:31:13. > :31:16.infrastructure because you have to balance the books of the same time

:31:17. > :31:21.as ensuring future productivity and tax receipts. What would you do? We

:31:22. > :31:26.would invest in infrastructure on a larger scale. What the Chancellor

:31:27. > :31:28.said today was welcome and some of it is a repeat of what his

:31:29. > :31:35.predecessor had put forward. That takes a long time for infrastructure

:31:36. > :31:39.investment to happen and to have an impact. What would you do to raise

:31:40. > :31:43.it in the next couple of years? There's a large number of shovel

:31:44. > :31:47.ready project in the pipeline and we didn't hear many of those. I've got

:31:48. > :31:53.a massively long list I could e-mail across to you. We've got HS2 which

:31:54. > :31:59.doesn't seem to be progressing. That is not shovel ready. We have got a

:32:00. > :32:04.vast number of them and they are available on the government website.

:32:05. > :32:10.I understand the website is full of infrastructure projects. A lot of

:32:11. > :32:16.them have not been lamented but give me an infrastructure project that is

:32:17. > :32:19.shovel ready. Swansea tidal lagoon. That will take years to plan. It

:32:20. > :32:24.hasn't even got planning permission yet. If you look on the government

:32:25. > :32:30.website, you can see a long list of the shovel ready projects if you are

:32:31. > :32:35.interest to do so. No, the point is this. What I see on the government

:32:36. > :32:38.website, hold on, what I see on the government website is a long list of

:32:39. > :32:44.infrastructure projects, but what I don't see is shovel ready. I will

:32:45. > :32:49.give you an example. HS2 is approved, eight years ago, hardly

:32:50. > :32:54.shovel ready. The diggers turned up last week to begin part of the

:32:55. > :32:58.building but didn't have the right local authority permits and they

:32:59. > :33:03.were sent away and they won't be allowed back until the New Year. It

:33:04. > :33:08.is not shovel ready. I appreciate a number of local issues on particular

:33:09. > :33:12.projects and they need to be addressed as quickly as possible but

:33:13. > :33:15.there's a number of projects if the Chancellor did further investigation

:33:16. > :33:18.on, he would find they were shovel ready. If you look of the government

:33:19. > :33:23.website, there's a long list of those available. I do appreciate

:33:24. > :33:27.there are some affected by local considerations but the point is, the

:33:28. > :33:31.Chancellor has not even touch the side in what we need to secure

:33:32. > :33:34.further productivity increases in this country and it's not just

:33:35. > :33:38.talking about shovel body project but investing in skills and

:33:39. > :33:41.education. We've seen horrific cuts to education in the last few years

:33:42. > :33:49.and we are not making art workforce skilled for the future. Do you buy

:33:50. > :33:53.the OBR's verdict the government will end up borrowing a lot more

:33:54. > :34:00.money because of the impact of Brexit? Does Labour accept that? We

:34:01. > :34:05.are in uncertain times and we've seen chaos on the government so far.

:34:06. > :34:08.In terms of our red Line, we want tariff free access at the least to

:34:09. > :34:11.the single market and I think that's what business is calling for, as

:34:12. > :34:14.well. We have seen nothing to suggest that will be pushed forward

:34:15. > :34:17.by this government coming forward and in terms of borrowing, I

:34:18. > :34:21.couldn't hazard a guess at the amount of money the government would

:34:22. > :34:26.have to borrow in terms of a worsening Brexit situation. The OBR

:34:27. > :34:32.of said there will be ?58 billion extra borrowing they put down to

:34:33. > :34:37.Brexit and that is the biggest fact the OBR forecast today. Do you

:34:38. > :34:45.accept the impact of the economy of our decision? It is a forecast and

:34:46. > :34:48.the caveat about in the report is a forecast dependent on the

:34:49. > :34:51.government's ongoing negotiations. The government can put in place

:34:52. > :34:56.initiatives now to try and alleviate any need to do that. That would be

:34:57. > :35:00.demanding tariff free access to the single market for a start. We just

:35:01. > :35:06.want some certainty going forward and we know we have got certainty on

:35:07. > :35:08.corporation tax. As the CBI mentioned earlier, we just want to

:35:09. > :35:13.see more certainty going forward in terms of what other terms for exit

:35:14. > :35:19.in the EU are going to be. At the very least, some red lines for

:35:20. > :35:24.business. The public finances. Given that if you win in 2020 will be

:35:25. > :35:30.taking over a government where the debt to GDP ratio would be flirting

:35:31. > :35:36.with 90%, do you still think, at that point, the markets and

:35:37. > :35:42.investors in debt would support Labour borrowing more money? I think

:35:43. > :35:48.Mark Carney made a statement not so long ago when he said we rely on our

:35:49. > :35:52.friends overseas, the kindness of strangers. The longer our situation

:35:53. > :35:57.is uncertain, the longer that kindness goes away... I'm wondering,

:35:58. > :36:02.given the downgrading of the public finances by the Office for Budget

:36:03. > :36:05.Responsibility today, do you stick to the notion that the markets would

:36:06. > :36:11.still support a Labour government borrowing more money given that in

:36:12. > :36:16.2020 the public finances are going to be in far worse state than you

:36:17. > :36:21.thought you were going to inherit if you are the election? We really hope

:36:22. > :36:26.they are not and we need to see some business Red Line 's. Do you think

:36:27. > :36:31.you can borrow more? You need to borrow to invest in infrastructure.

:36:32. > :36:34.You think you could borrow more even though the ratio... We would have to

:36:35. > :36:38.assess the public finances at the time you could cut off your arms

:36:39. > :36:42.you'd have to make sure you are securing future productivity for the

:36:43. > :36:45.country but without a crystal ball, but I couldn't make an assessment of

:36:46. > :36:50.the fiscal situation at the time we exit of the EU, but I really do

:36:51. > :36:53.implore the Chancellor to start pushing for tariff free access to

:36:54. > :36:58.the single market because it's imperative. He should also be

:36:59. > :37:04.pushing for the financial passport. Even though we have seen borrowing

:37:05. > :37:07.costs for the government today slowly rising, and inflation risk in

:37:08. > :37:11.particular, do you store think the market will support you borrowing

:37:12. > :37:17.more on top of what the OBR is saying already? As I said, we have

:37:18. > :37:20.do assess the fiscal situation at the time. I would not want us to be

:37:21. > :37:24.in a worsening financial situation and we will be if this government

:37:25. > :37:28.doesn't take strong action in terms of Brexit. We have to assess the

:37:29. > :37:32.financial situation of the time to specify the amounts we would borrow

:37:33. > :37:38.and you are right in what you say, the amount of debt we are inward

:37:39. > :37:45.effect that. Do you want the government to outline its red lines

:37:46. > :37:50.on Brexit? Understandable position. It's the job of the opposition to do

:37:51. > :37:54.that. What is your Red Line? Would you leave membership of the single

:37:55. > :37:57.market? We wouldn't want to leave membership of the single market but

:37:58. > :38:02.we would want tariff free access. You said you wouldn't leave

:38:03. > :38:07.membership of the single market. We wouldn't like to. Whether that's on

:38:08. > :38:10.the card or not, remains to be seen, but we want at least a guarantee

:38:11. > :38:16.from the government they will maintain some degree of access. I

:38:17. > :38:19.understand, that's a question for the government, I understand that. I

:38:20. > :38:23.want to know Labour's position because these matters could be

:38:24. > :38:29.unresolved. You have said that you would want to remain a member of the

:38:30. > :38:33.single market? Our bare minimum is access to a single market, tariff

:38:34. > :38:38.free. Would you be prepared to remain as a member? Whether that's

:38:39. > :38:43.achievable or not is another matter. What about the customs union? Yes,

:38:44. > :38:46.we think it's imperative to remain. You would accept by doing that this

:38:47. > :38:56.country couldn't make its own free-trade deals? Well, I mean, all

:38:57. > :39:00.things are negotiable. We would demand to remain part of a customs

:39:01. > :39:04.union because it would have a detrimental impact. There's no

:39:05. > :39:07.member of the customs union who makes its own free-trade deals, so

:39:08. > :39:11.you would accept that we could not then do free-trade deals with

:39:12. > :39:17.Canada, America, Australia, India? If Labour's policy sticks. Because

:39:18. > :39:22.it hasn't happened so far doesn't mean it might not be able to happen

:39:23. > :39:25.in the future, Andrew. We are in politically uncertain times at the

:39:26. > :39:28.moment and if you are told me we would be out of the EU six months

:39:29. > :39:35.ago I would have laughed. The customs union is quite clear on

:39:36. > :39:39.trade goods. The whole point of being in the customs union is the

:39:40. > :39:44.customs union does that free-trade deals so you can't have both. Do you

:39:45. > :39:47.understand that? We would want to remain part of a customs union and

:39:48. > :39:51.then we'll see what the government puts forward on that. OK, we believe

:39:52. > :39:52.that therefore suffering to very much.

:39:53. > :39:55.Let's go over to Northern Ireland now and our political editor

:39:56. > :40:02.What has been the reaction in Northern Ireland? I think initially

:40:03. > :40:05.welcomed to the increase there's going to be in capital spending on

:40:06. > :40:10.infrastructure because of course that trickles down to the regions

:40:11. > :40:17.like Northern Ireland. We are due over the next four years for a ?250

:40:18. > :40:20.million increase in capital spending on infrastructure and so that will

:40:21. > :40:23.be welcomed by the construction industry locally. And properly by

:40:24. > :40:26.most politicians. This has been an area where there's been a

:40:27. > :40:30.traditional amount of debate about whether we would miss out, not being

:40:31. > :40:34.able to build much-needed road schemes because of Brexit, because

:40:35. > :40:37.the local executive was implying for funding, planning to apply for

:40:38. > :40:41.funding from the European Union in relation to that, so I think over

:40:42. > :40:45.the next few weeks, we are expecting our local budget in the middle of

:40:46. > :40:52.December, to have a debate about what the Chancellor has announced

:40:53. > :40:57.today and whether it plug the gap. Let's go back to College Green.

:40:58. > :41:03.Caroline Lucas from the Green party and Jonathan Edwards from Plaid

:41:04. > :41:08.Cymru. What is your overall reaction, Caroline? At a time when

:41:09. > :41:11.economic times, the country is moving into uncharted waters of

:41:12. > :41:16.levels of insecurity higher than ever before, I was hoping from this

:41:17. > :41:20.Chancellor without more policies to protect my constituents in Brighton

:41:21. > :41:24.much better. We are seeing instead of Chancellor committed to give tax

:41:25. > :41:28.breaks to the richest, to corporations, and is taking away

:41:29. > :41:31.from the poorest in order to spend on that. When you add to that the

:41:32. > :41:35.fact this is a Chancellor who didn't once mention the words climate

:41:36. > :41:41.change, in the year on record as the hottest ever, a year when we know

:41:42. > :41:44.that we absolutely could be investing in energy efficiency,

:41:45. > :41:48.creating jobs, getting emissions down, getting peoples fuel bills

:41:49. > :41:51.down, there was some win-win situations which could of been good

:41:52. > :41:57.for people and the environment and he just blew it. Jonathan, what is

:41:58. > :42:02.the Plaid Cymru V1 this? The mythical Tory long-term plan was

:42:03. > :42:07.shelved in a short-term economic scramble on the back of a declining

:42:08. > :42:14.OBR forecast over five years. It's not as bad news for public finances

:42:15. > :42:17.but in terms of weakening job prospects, especially women look at

:42:18. > :42:22.the inflation forecast. One of the big striking aspects of the

:42:23. > :42:25.statement is there was no indication from the Chancellor on what is

:42:26. > :42:29.position will be in terms of the single market and the customs union

:42:30. > :42:35.going forward. An extra 400 million for the Welsh government in this.

:42:36. > :42:39.Any ideas how you will spend it? We've lost 400 million over five

:42:40. > :42:46.years, of course. It will be spent on renovating Buckingham Palace, and

:42:47. > :42:49.the place behind me, it wasn't a serious fiscal intervention because

:42:50. > :42:57.if you go back to the levels of infrastructure investment prior to

:42:58. > :43:01.the crash in 2008, 1% extra pair and GDP, 20 billion across the UK and a

:43:02. > :43:05.billion per annum for Wales, so the money announced, although welcome,

:43:06. > :43:12.isn't a serious economic intention. Philip Hammond confirmed the

:43:13. > :43:17.starting rate, 40% tax break, would rise by 2020 up to 50,000. John

:43:18. > :43:22.McDonnell from Labour has backed that. The Green party is opposed to

:43:23. > :43:29.that. A lot of people who would benefit are not rich, moderately

:43:30. > :43:33.affluent at most. Teachers, police officers, other public sector

:43:34. > :43:38.workers. Why would you be against them getting a fairer deal? I'm

:43:39. > :43:41.against it because it's essentially being paid for by some of the

:43:42. > :43:50.poorest people, who are seeing changes on Universal Credit but not

:43:51. > :43:54.going to help them. Is being paid for off the backs of the poorest

:43:55. > :43:57.people and that's why we are objecting to it. Essentially, this

:43:58. > :44:01.is a budget yet again for the more wealthy in spite of the fact only a

:44:02. > :44:04.few months ago Theresa May were standing on the doorstep of Downing