:00:38. > :00:40.Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics.
:00:41. > :00:43.It's the day after the day after the Autumn Statement,
:00:44. > :00:45.but the Government's still being criticised over
:00:46. > :00:49.forecasts suggesting a big squeeze on living standards.
:00:50. > :00:52.But have the economic forecasters taken too gloomy a view
:00:53. > :00:56.of what might happen post-Brexit, and do they have a record
:00:57. > :01:02.We'll talk to the head of the Office for Budget Responsibility.
:01:03. > :01:06.MEPs have voted to freeze EU membership talks with Turkey.
:01:07. > :01:09.That's not pleased Turkey's president, who says if it happens
:01:10. > :01:15.he'll open the gates for migrants to enter Europe.
:01:16. > :01:17.It's the first ever conference of the Women's Equality Party,
:01:18. > :01:20.and they say membership is growing fast.
:01:21. > :01:26.But can it win many votes in a crowded political marketplace?
:01:27. > :01:29.Tony Blair's coming back - no, we really mean it this time.
:01:30. > :01:32.He says he's going to find a home for millions of the "politically
:01:33. > :01:42.homeless", and could campaign for Brexit to be reversed.
:01:43. > :01:47.And with us for the first half of the programme today,
:01:48. > :01:51.a journalist so knowledgeable about all things political he thinks
:01:52. > :01:54.Black Friday refers to a stock market crash rather than early
:01:55. > :02:03.It's the political editor of the Sun, Tom Newton Dunn.
:02:04. > :02:08.First today, let's talk about a bill being debated by MPs today that,
:02:09. > :02:11.if passed, will make it an offence for people to wear military medals
:02:12. > :02:15.Those found guilty will face a maximum penalty of six months'
:02:16. > :02:19.Well, normally a private members' bill brought forward
:02:20. > :02:21.by an individual MP would stand little chance of getting
:02:22. > :02:28.But you might remember that when we covered this
:02:29. > :02:30.earlier in the week, we spoke to the Armed Forces
:02:31. > :02:32.minister, who confirmed that the Government will be
:02:33. > :02:44.The hurt of someone as being as deceitful as wearing a Gallantry
:02:45. > :02:53.Medal. It is not just like the Northern Ireland medal but that I
:02:54. > :02:57.won, this is somebody who has gone beyond the call of duty in getting a
:02:58. > :03:02.Gallantry Medal, and somebody is impersonating them. I will make sure
:03:03. > :03:07.that I'm in the committee to present the Government's view.
:03:08. > :03:17.Had bigger problem is this? We have medal fraud for awhile. We used to
:03:18. > :03:21.get quite a lot of good copy out of hunting down and exposing these
:03:22. > :03:28.quite appalling fruitcakes who would turn up at parades, normally with a
:03:29. > :03:32.droopy moustache saying that they had done all these things. What has
:03:33. > :03:37.increased as the number of medals that people now have because of Iraq
:03:38. > :03:41.and if Khalistan, a whole load of people did a lot of things, and
:03:42. > :03:44.maybe they are trying to keep up with the pace. It really is
:03:45. > :03:48.incredibly offensive if you have been through all of this, and I
:03:49. > :03:53.think it should be, and I am pleased that the Government is looking at it
:03:54. > :03:58.as a type of fraud. You used the word fruitcakes. Isn't the risk of
:03:59. > :04:01.having a risen sentence or a very large fine, is that really
:04:02. > :04:05.disproportionately harsh on people who may have a mental health
:04:06. > :04:11.problem, for example, or even though it is offensive, would people want
:04:12. > :04:14.to see others going to jail? If you have mental health problems and are
:04:15. > :04:19.a disturbed individual, they will not send you to prison, because they
:04:20. > :04:23.never do anyway. But it is useful to have as a penalty, as a hard drop
:04:24. > :04:30.background, to stop this type of fraud being permitted. It is conning
:04:31. > :04:35.people into giving you respect or sometimes even money if you are
:04:36. > :04:37.raising Fred Charity for something you haven't done. We will leave it
:04:38. > :04:39.there, we will come back to it. And there's been a lot of talk this
:04:40. > :04:44.week about Donald Trump's suggestion that Nigel Farage should be made
:04:45. > :04:47.the UK's next ambassador to the US. But one Labour MP has come up
:04:48. > :04:50.with a novel suggestion for who should be the next US
:04:51. > :04:52.ambassador to Britain. John Mann has tabled an early day
:04:53. > :04:55.motion in Parliament to ask fellow So, who does he think should be
:04:56. > :05:00.America's man or woman in London? And a bit later on, Tom will give
:05:01. > :05:14.us the correct answer. Now, it may be Black Friday
:05:15. > :05:17.at the shops today thanks to an imported American marketing
:05:18. > :05:20.gimmick, but is it also a bit of a black day for the economic
:05:21. > :05:25.prospects of British workers? That was the view of several
:05:26. > :05:27.think-tanks and forecasters, who yesterday gave us their now
:05:28. > :05:29.traditional post-match analysis of Chancellor Philip
:05:30. > :05:33.Hammond's Autumn Statement. And they were pretty gloomy
:05:34. > :05:36.about what it all meant. The Institute for Fiscal Studies
:05:37. > :05:39.described the outlook They say that workers will,
:05:40. > :05:45.in real terms, earn less in 2021 That's the worst decade for living
:05:46. > :05:52.standards "probably since Downing Street didn't like that,
:05:53. > :05:56.saying that living standards The Prime Minister's spokeswoman
:05:57. > :06:05.said that "real household disposable income" is the best way
:06:06. > :06:07.to measure living standards, and that it's rising
:06:08. > :06:11.under this Government. The impact that Brexit will have
:06:12. > :06:15.on the economy has been a bone of contention since the independent
:06:16. > :06:20.Office for Budget Responsibility published its forecast alongside
:06:21. > :06:23.the Autumn Statement on Wednesday. It said the Government will have
:06:24. > :06:26.have to borrow an extra ?58.7 billion over the next five
:06:27. > :06:34.years because of Brexit. The OBR has come under fire from
:06:35. > :06:37.Brexit-supporting Conservative MPs. Jacob Rees-Mogg said the forecasts
:06:38. > :06:40.were based on "lunatic" assumptions And the former Cabinet minister
:06:41. > :06:47.Iain Duncan Smith said the OBR was "very close
:06:48. > :06:49.to the Treasury" and "pretty And this morning, leading Leave
:06:50. > :06:56.campaigners including Michael Gove and Gisela Stuart have said
:06:57. > :06:59.that the OBR's figures also reveal a "Brexit dividend"
:07:00. > :07:04.of over ?10 billion a year. That's the money we'll no longer
:07:05. > :07:07.send to the EU after we've left. They say that the money should be
:07:08. > :07:17.spent on the NHS. Joining me now is the chairman of
:07:18. > :07:22.the Office for Budget Responsibility, welcome to the daily
:07:23. > :07:24.politics. Let's go back to the forecast during the referendum
:07:25. > :07:30.campaign, because many people said they all turned out to be wrong,
:07:31. > :07:34.because a lot of the economic institutions, the Treasury, the Bank
:07:35. > :07:39.of England, the IMF, said that a Brexit vote would cause an immediate
:07:40. > :07:44.downturn, and that hasn't happened. It hasn't, and we were not one of
:07:45. > :07:48.the organisations that try to produce a forecast. As you say, some
:07:49. > :07:52.people thought the impact of greater uncertainty would have a much more
:07:53. > :07:57.dramatic and instantaneous approach, but then the picture would get
:07:58. > :08:11.clearer in terms of the outcome of the negotiations as things went on.
:08:12. > :08:15.The instant reaction has been less painful in terms of the economy, but
:08:16. > :08:19.people are nonetheless not as much the wiser in terms of what the
:08:20. > :08:22.Government's objectives are in negotiations and what the likely
:08:23. > :08:25.outcome is going to be, so I think that will take some time to clear
:08:26. > :08:28.up. And there has been a wave of criticism about so-called guessing.
:08:29. > :08:33.You had a caveat that you didn't have that much information to go on,
:08:34. > :08:36.so how seriously could we take this? It is a best estimate of what we
:08:37. > :08:42.have managed to interpret current Government policy. We asked
:08:43. > :08:44.explicitly in the run-up to the Autumn Statement, whether the
:08:45. > :08:49.Government wanted to tell us and implicitly every body else any more
:08:50. > :08:52.about their aims are expectations for the negotiations than was
:08:53. > :08:55.already in the public domain, and they said they didn't want to do
:08:56. > :08:59.that, so we have had to make some broad assumptions that you would end
:09:00. > :09:06.up with imports and exports growing less quickly, that net inward
:09:07. > :09:09.migration would be lower, so we have had to do it on that basis and we
:09:10. > :09:13.can see when there is more information about the results of the
:09:14. > :09:17.negotiations on what the Government is trying to get out of it to refine
:09:18. > :09:22.that. But I don't think we will be much the wiser very quickly. David
:09:23. > :09:27.Cameron said at the time that a lever vote would put a bomb under
:09:28. > :09:32.the British economy, but looking at your growth forecasts, you do see
:09:33. > :09:37.growth continuing. There is a deep in 2017/18, but it picks up again,
:09:38. > :09:42.so in a way, even those forecasts don't see a great downturn. We are
:09:43. > :09:45.somewhat on the more optimistic end of the spectrum, more optimistic
:09:46. > :09:50.than the Bank of England and the average of outside forecasters.
:09:51. > :09:53.There are two main thing is driving the weakening most people expect,
:09:54. > :09:58.one of which is that uncertainty out of where we will end up on things
:09:59. > :10:01.like trade and migration will weaken investment, and the other thing is
:10:02. > :10:06.we have already seen a sharp fall in the pound which will push up import
:10:07. > :10:09.prices and mean that the pound and the consumer's Hobbit will go less
:10:10. > :10:15.far, so it is those things carrying on that leads to the weakness next
:10:16. > :10:17.year. Isn't this playing politics by the Leave campaigners, they don't
:10:18. > :10:20.want to hear this information because it undermines the whole
:10:21. > :10:29.campaign and the drive to leave the EU? I think you will also find a few
:10:30. > :10:40.Remain campaigners, strangely enough, politicians play politics.
:10:41. > :10:49.The IFS agree with Robert Osman prognosis. How busy got to growth by
:10:50. > :10:54.2019 when we are leaving the EU? My personal point of view, he was
:10:55. > :10:59.supposed to forecast something that nobody had any clue how it could
:11:00. > :11:06.work out, and he gave his own forecast only a 50% chance of coming
:11:07. > :11:10.true, so I think he is beaten up to hard. I don't know how you are
:11:11. > :11:15.wounded by criticism, I'm sure you are tough when this stuff is thrown
:11:16. > :11:18.at you, but they are accusing you of being too close to the Treasury
:11:19. > :11:21.leading Leave campaigners, and wrong on everything. Do you think you will
:11:22. > :11:27.be the one that is caught between the two sides? You have to recognise
:11:28. > :11:31.that we have seen this for months, and extremely heated debate, hotly
:11:32. > :11:36.contested, and it is not surprising that tempers and emotions are
:11:37. > :11:39.running high. All we can do under those circumstances is to set out
:11:40. > :11:44.the assumptions we have made as transparently as we can. If you take
:11:45. > :11:48.a more less optimistic view of where the negotiations will end up, if you
:11:49. > :11:52.think the Government is going to exploit or not exploit the
:11:53. > :11:56.opportunities to move policy in a more growth friendly direction, you
:11:57. > :12:00.can take the numbers we have started with an go in one direction or the
:12:01. > :12:04.other, so hopefully it is a useful exercise even if people don't why
:12:05. > :12:08.the central conclusion. Jacob Rees-Mogg has said that you assumed
:12:09. > :12:12.after we leave the EU we will apply the same tariffs to the rest of the
:12:13. > :12:17.world that we currently apply, his point being that those tariffs may
:12:18. > :12:21.not be there, that is the point of leaving the EU, we will have free
:12:22. > :12:26.trade deals. Do you think that is a mistake? The consensus of people who
:12:27. > :12:29.are experts in the way trade is modelled, the middle of the pack and
:12:30. > :12:34.not the most optimistic or least as a mystic, there is a general
:12:35. > :12:38.consensus that you would see imports and exports growing less quickly
:12:39. > :12:42.over a 5-10 year period than you otherwise too, partly because you
:12:43. > :12:45.have to get to the new set of trade arrangements, but then will it be
:12:46. > :12:50.more difficult within the EU even if it is easier somewhere else? So you
:12:51. > :12:54.are right in saying that if people like Jacob Rees-Mogg, Patrick
:12:55. > :13:00.Minford though I think you were talking to recently, would favour a
:13:01. > :13:03.much more liberal trade regime. Whether in a global context that is
:13:04. > :13:09.the direction in which the trade policy will go, it is not our
:13:10. > :13:14.decision but others' too, that remains to be seen. And there are
:13:15. > :13:18.many views about how Brexit will actually be done, and that makes it
:13:19. > :13:22.even more difficult to predict. There is no agreement at all on what
:13:23. > :13:25.Brexit will look like. We don't think the Government still has a
:13:26. > :13:31.plan yet, they are still doing their thinking. But it does beg the
:13:32. > :13:35.question, Robert, if there is no conclusive path for all of this at
:13:36. > :13:39.all, why do you not model several different outcomes, perhaps a soft
:13:40. > :13:47.Brexit at, they hard Brexit outcome, because all Philip Hammond has done
:13:48. > :13:52.is taken your numbers and borrowed a extra something that you say is
:13:53. > :13:55.unlikely. I think the uncertainties around the broadbrush forecast, and
:13:56. > :14:01.people's very justifiable realisation of how much trust you
:14:02. > :14:03.should place in any forecast, if we were coming up with precisely
:14:04. > :14:08.calibrated differences between what would happen if it was WTO or Canada
:14:09. > :14:15.plus or Norway models, I'm not sure, I think the differences between each
:14:16. > :14:19.of those scenarios would be dwarfed by the uncertainty around any one of
:14:20. > :14:25.them, so the best thing for us to do is to take some broad assumptions
:14:26. > :14:28.consistent with the bulk of external analysis and then we have to wait
:14:29. > :14:30.until the fog clears in order to come up with something that is more
:14:31. > :14:33.specifically tied to a particular outcome. Robert Chote, thank you
:14:34. > :14:36.very much. There was much talk in the run-up
:14:37. > :14:39.to the Autumn Statement about what the Chancellor might do
:14:40. > :14:43.for low-income families. He took limited action in one
:14:44. > :14:48.controversial area, by softening cuts to Universal Credit,
:14:49. > :14:50.the new umbrella benefit gradually He offered claimants
:14:51. > :14:53.partial respite by changing The Resolution Foundation said this
:14:54. > :14:56.would save claimants up to ?300, but previous cuts may have cost them
:14:57. > :15:00.more than ?2000. So what do Conservative MPs
:15:01. > :15:10.who campaigned successfully last year against previous proposed
:15:11. > :15:12.cuts to tax credits? Well we're joined by one of them
:15:13. > :15:23.now, and Johnny Mercer Has the Government done enough? I
:15:24. > :15:26.think they've made a strong step in the right direction. Would I have
:15:27. > :15:31.liked more, clearly yes I would have done. But the Chancellor made it
:15:32. > :15:34.clear that he thought about the evidence, he listened to everybody.
:15:35. > :15:40.We made a step in that direction. He's done what he can. So I welcome
:15:41. > :15:45.that. Would I have liked him to have done more, obviously I would have.
:15:46. > :15:50.He has a huge balance to - a huge budget to balance and he has done a
:15:51. > :15:53.good job. If you remember the rhetoric by Theresa May on the
:15:54. > :15:57.doorstep of Number 10 where she said she wanted to help those people who
:15:58. > :16:03.were just about managing. Even though he has put a certain amount
:16:04. > :16:06.of money into mitigate the cuts to universal credit, they in no way
:16:07. > :16:11.reverse them and those families are still going to be worse off. Yeah,
:16:12. > :16:16.if this is taken in isolation you are right. Not even in isolation,
:16:17. > :16:19.even if you take it in the round, the Government and the Treasury put
:16:20. > :16:23.opt a statement to say you have to look at higher lf living wage, money
:16:24. > :16:32.for child care, they'll still be worse off some of those families.
:16:33. > :16:35.Some of those families, I believe, in particular percentiles will
:16:36. > :16:41.struggle. That's why I say as far as I am concerned I would like it to go
:16:42. > :16:44.further. I think it's disingeneralous to say we are not
:16:45. > :16:47.looking after the just about managing or doing what we can for
:16:48. > :16:52.the bottom 20% of society that people like me are involved in
:16:53. > :16:56.politics for. I think if you look at somewhere like Plymouth, we keep
:16:57. > :16:59.talking about it, but the single biggest driver in improving life
:17:00. > :17:03.chances for our most vulnerable is having a job and that unemployment
:17:04. > :17:07.has halved. Is there more we can do, of course there is, there always is.
:17:08. > :17:11.I welcome this on Thursday and the fight goes on. Would you, right, the
:17:12. > :17:17.fight goes on. What are you doing in terms of the fight? It sounds like
:17:18. > :17:21.you would like George Osborne's cuts to work allowances to be ditched
:17:22. > :17:25.altogether because then people can earn more before they actually lose
:17:26. > :17:29.their benefits s that what you would like to see? I would like to see is
:17:30. > :17:32.for the income tax threshold to continue to go up as it is, for
:17:33. > :17:37.people to keep more of the money they earn and that is the direction
:17:38. > :17:39.of travel we are taking. We are also balancing that against a very
:17:40. > :17:46.difficult fiscal position against going through a transition, if you
:17:47. > :17:53.like, from a high welfare state to making people less dependent on
:17:54. > :17:57.state welfare and in places like play Moth that's transforming -- -
:17:58. > :18:01.Plymouth. That's transforming. Could we have quicker? We have a huge
:18:02. > :18:05.balance to - a huge budget to balance for and we are in tricky
:18:06. > :18:09.times with Brexit and all of that. Philip's clearly working to that, as
:18:10. > :18:13.well. Although he has loosened the target for balancing the books. So
:18:14. > :18:16.he has a little bit more room Father manoeuvre in those terms. You
:18:17. > :18:20.mentioned the fight goes on. What are you doing, are you lobbying the
:18:21. > :18:25.Chancellor to try and go further in the next year or so on this? We just
:18:26. > :18:28.need to make sure that as a team of Conservative MPs we follow through
:18:29. > :18:32.on the promise to look after the most vulnerable in society. That's
:18:33. > :18:35.across the pitch. Whether it's to do with universal credit or it to do
:18:36. > :18:39.with halving the disability gap, for example, which is something we are
:18:40. > :18:43.working on at the moment and there's a report out in January about this.
:18:44. > :18:47.We are doing a good job on this. But we are not going as far as we said
:18:48. > :18:51.in the manifesto. When I say the fight goes on, there are - most
:18:52. > :18:54.Conservative MPs believe we judge ourselves by how we look after the
:18:55. > :18:58.most vulnerable in the society and the fight goes on to make sure our
:18:59. > :19:02.policies work for them. All right, but the criticism was pretty
:19:03. > :19:05.damaging, the assessment from the resolution foundation, once they
:19:06. > :19:07.crunched the krm numbers and the institute of fiscal studies, no
:19:08. > :19:11.wonder Downing Street will be unhappy about it because they
:19:12. > :19:14.haven't lived up to the rhetoric. I think Downing Street will be quite
:19:15. > :19:17.cross somehow the narrative going into this Autumn Statememt was it's
:19:18. > :19:22.going to be about helping just about managing. This new study says
:19:23. > :19:28.something interesting which got lost amid the whole terrible headlines of
:19:29. > :19:32.a lost decade of wage growth, which was Philip Hammond has prioritised
:19:33. > :19:35.what money he had to spend on capital investment, fiscal stimulus
:19:36. > :19:39.for the economy, road-building, etc as to helping the just about
:19:40. > :19:43.managing. I think Johnny is being polite here, what he would like to
:19:44. > :19:47.say if I am not putting words in his mouth is, I am sick to the back
:19:48. > :19:50.teeth that the Government I want to support put 700 million of the
:19:51. > :19:54.universal credit cuts back into what should have been 3. 4 billion.
:19:55. > :20:00.That's barely a fifth of the reverse of the cuts. Is that what you think?
:20:01. > :20:02.Can I come back on that. I would say is what Tom indicates there around
:20:03. > :20:07.infrastructure, that is all towards growth. That's towards closing the
:20:08. > :20:10.productivity gap which is all towards raising higher standards. So
:20:11. > :20:14.I don't think these things are actually contrary to each other.
:20:15. > :20:18.There are many ways of having this fight against poverty. One is to
:20:19. > :20:21.improve the infrastructure. If you look at Plymouth and the railline
:20:22. > :20:24.it's integral to getting jobs for opportunities for young people in
:20:25. > :20:29.Plymouth and that's infrastructure. I see what Tom is saying but as much
:20:30. > :20:32.as I always agree with Tom, on this occasion I may decline. You don't
:20:33. > :20:39.always agree then. All right, thank you very much.
:20:40. > :20:46.Is Tony Blair planning on making a comeback. It's been written about
:20:47. > :20:50.more times, but this time it seems like it really might be happening.
:20:51. > :20:53.The former Labour Prime Minister has announced he's
:20:54. > :21:02.But this time the political driver wants to take a back-seat role
:21:03. > :21:07.and build a platform for the political centre
:21:08. > :21:14.In an interview in the New Statesman, Mr Blair explained
:21:15. > :21:17.he wanted to provide "a service" to political leaders, in the form of
:21:18. > :21:20."I think in Britain today, you've got millions of effectively
:21:21. > :21:23."I think the absolute essence is to revive the centre."
:21:24. > :21:27."What I'm doing is to spend more time, not in the front
:21:28. > :21:30."There are elements of the media who would literally move to destroy
:21:31. > :21:35."But in trying to create the space for a political debate
:21:36. > :21:36.about where modern Western democracies go and where
:21:37. > :21:39.the progressive forces particularly find their place."
:21:40. > :21:43.We're joined now by Matthew Doyle, he used to work for Tony Blair
:21:44. > :21:48.at Number 10, and by the Ukip MEP Tim Aker.
:21:49. > :21:55.Welcome to the programme. Explain exactly what Tony Blair wants to do.
:21:56. > :22:01.I find it fascinating that nearly 20 years after Tony was first elect as
:22:02. > :22:04.Prime Minister there is still so many column inches dedicated to what
:22:05. > :22:11.he is doing, what he is saying, who he is thinking. Not favourable a lot
:22:12. > :22:14.of course. There is also something depressing, it speaks to a bigger
:22:15. > :22:19.problem in politics for the centre ground which in the problem he has
:22:20. > :22:22.in a sense identified, why I think it's right that he uses the platform
:22:23. > :22:27.that he gets through being a former Prime Minister to express a view on
:22:28. > :22:31.this. Look, the 48% in the referendum lost but that doesn't
:22:32. > :22:35.mean that the 48% should be denied a voice in the debate. I think it's
:22:36. > :22:38.important that as we go forward with the discussions around Brexit, the
:22:39. > :22:42.debate about what that looks like and what it means, is held in a way
:22:43. > :22:46.that does give the 48% a voice. Does he want to reverse Brexit? Look, he
:22:47. > :22:49.thinks it's a bad idea we are leaving the European Union, no
:22:50. > :22:52.question about it. In terms of what ends up happening in terms of the
:22:53. > :22:56.decision, then my personal view is I think it's clear, we are on a track
:22:57. > :23:00.to leaving the European Union. The question is what the nature of that
:23:01. > :23:03.happens. There are all sorts of promises that were made in the
:23:04. > :23:07.course of the referendum campaign that said don't wrory it will be
:23:08. > :23:11.fine, the Germans will still want to sell us cars, French will still want
:23:12. > :23:15.to sell us cheese or whatever it was. If it turns us there is a
:23:16. > :23:19.different scenario, just as John Major is also saying in the papers,
:23:20. > :23:23.it's right the public gets a chance if it wants to, to say is hang on,
:23:24. > :23:26.this isn't what we were told at the time. Are you pleased to see Tony
:23:27. > :23:31.Blair return to politics in some form? It's Christmas come early. For
:23:32. > :23:40.who? For my side of the argument surely. He is known for Iraq and the
:23:41. > :23:45.mess that caused. And also it's the... And winning three elections.
:23:46. > :23:49.He didn't create imdprags controls when the EU expanded. All of this
:23:50. > :23:53.talk of centre ground and so on ignores the debate. There is the
:23:54. > :23:59.Common Ground. Things have moved on. It's noticeable him talk being the
:24:00. > :24:05.forgotten in politics. I remember the Welsh devolution referendum was
:24:06. > :24:11.closer for the Brexit one. I think he is back to quell the Brexit
:24:12. > :24:14.revolt and you will find that more people will look at Tony Blair's
:24:15. > :24:18.record and see he is telling us what to do again, we are going to fight
:24:19. > :24:22.back. I think he is a drain on those people that want a single market or
:24:23. > :24:27.soft Brexit. Do you think he will help the people, the 48%, the 16
:24:28. > :24:32.million, many of whom would not only like to stay in the EU but would
:24:33. > :24:37.like to stay as a member of of the single market. I think it's a
:24:38. > :24:43.problem that we haven't got more voices that are vocally speaking on
:24:44. > :24:46.behalf of the 48%. Frankly, I think - part of the problem that the
:24:47. > :24:50.Labour is in at the moment and I think it would be good for the
:24:51. > :24:55.Labour to step up more and be more vocal. He doesn't believe Jeremy
:24:56. > :24:59.Corbyn is the right man, but is Tony Blair the right man I would say he
:25:00. > :25:01.is, he has the experience of Prime Minister and experience of previous
:25:02. > :25:05.European negotiations, just as I would argue it's good that we hear
:25:06. > :25:09.from John Major as he is quoted in The Times today on this debate. I
:25:10. > :25:12.think the Government would be wise to listen to former Prime Minister
:25:13. > :25:15.who is have been part of European negotiations and get a sense from
:25:16. > :25:19.them of where they should proceed because they're making a mess at the
:25:20. > :25:24.moment. What do you think in terms of Tony Blair trying to come back in
:25:25. > :25:29.and add his voice to perhaps Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband, the Remain
:25:30. > :25:32.side, the 48% and do you think the Government wants more help? It's had
:25:33. > :25:36.a suggestion of Nigel Farage to help in America and now Tony Blair on the
:25:37. > :25:40.Brexit negotiations. Tony Blair for Washington DC ambassador, that would
:25:41. > :25:43.be a way of solving that problem. Tony Blair's motives are
:25:44. > :25:48.interesting. He is clearly a passionate pro-European. He spends
:25:49. > :25:54.his entire premiership signing us up to all the great pro-eu causes,
:25:55. > :25:59.probably would have been included in the single currency. So, clearly he
:26:00. > :26:04.has belief by it. However, I do have to say I was in the press conference
:26:05. > :26:08.room after the chill cot inquiry where Tony Blair was painfully aware
:26:09. > :26:13.of how his entire reputation was going straight down the plughole
:26:14. > :26:17.because of that one report. I wonder whether he now thinks Brexit is
:26:18. > :26:20.something he can perhaps try and rehabilitate himself on. Tim
:26:21. > :26:23.wouldn't see it that way. Make he can reverse some damage and make
:26:24. > :26:29.this the flag he can be remembered for. Are you worried that big
:26:30. > :26:33.personality, a big figure like Tony Blair throwing his weight behind the
:26:34. > :26:36.discussion on Brexit could move to a softer departure from the EU? I
:26:37. > :26:40.don't think so. During the referendum we had all the big
:26:41. > :26:44.establishment figures, former prepare Ministers, big opinion
:26:45. > :26:47.formers who said, no, Brexit will be terrible don't vote for it. This
:26:48. > :26:50.reinforces the view that the establishment are fighting back,
:26:51. > :26:53.they don't accept the result ap doing everything they can. On the
:26:54. > :26:57.point just mentioned about Corbyn. There was a poll, we should not take
:26:58. > :27:02.much emphasis on polls given how wrong they've been. They haven't had
:27:03. > :27:06.a good record recently. One point separated them and that was a poll
:27:07. > :27:09.in October, I believe. So, if he thinks he is more popular than
:27:10. > :27:11.Corbyn and will change the mood of the country he has another thing
:27:12. > :27:15.coming. Thank you to both of you. Now, the Women's Equality Party
:27:16. > :27:17.was launched last year to campaign for gender equality
:27:18. > :27:20.for the benefit of all. So far it's stood candidates
:27:21. > :27:22.in London, Wales and Scotland without success, but it says it has
:27:23. > :27:26.gained 65,000 members and registered supporters, and this weekend
:27:27. > :27:28.is holding its first But with a female Prime Minister
:27:29. > :27:42.in Number 10, does the public think We sent Ellie out with
:27:43. > :27:45.the moodbox to find out. Welcome to Maidenhead,
:27:46. > :27:47.the home of Theresa May, Britain's second ever female Prime
:27:48. > :27:49.Minister. Evidence, surely, of equality
:27:50. > :27:51.in the sexes in the upper What we're asking today is does
:27:52. > :27:55.there need to be separate political party that deals with the issues
:27:56. > :27:58.and interests of women? There is, it's called
:27:59. > :28:12.the Women's Equality Party. You think it's
:28:13. > :28:14.a good idea? No and the reason being
:28:15. > :28:20.is you shouldn't stigmatise one particular part of a community,
:28:21. > :28:22.so be it women, be it So it's all part of one
:28:23. > :28:31.community, therefore, no. I think there should be more women
:28:32. > :28:34.involved in the politics and constitutional rights
:28:35. > :28:40.of everybody for equality and they should also
:28:41. > :28:42.get a fairer wage. It's 2016, it's
:28:43. > :28:44.all about equality, Sorry, I am being
:28:45. > :28:58.a lady who lunches. We are about halfway,
:28:59. > :29:01.it would seem the nos Women have different views to men,
:29:02. > :29:06.I suppose. Good idea then to have a women's
:29:07. > :29:12.party? I don't know, because it gives them
:29:13. > :29:22.a voice, doesn't it? Should there be a separate political
:29:23. > :29:24.party for women's I think multitasking
:29:25. > :29:30.is the important thing. So a separate political party
:29:31. > :29:36.would be a good idea? Sorry, I remember,
:29:37. > :29:43.actually. Don't tell anyone
:29:44. > :29:48.I gave you two votes. If you have a separate party
:29:49. > :29:51.for women, then you would have No, because women and men shouldn't
:29:52. > :29:55.be separated from each other. It was close and lots of people said
:29:56. > :30:01.that politics is still far But, on balance, the good people
:30:02. > :30:04.of Maidenhead say no. There need not be
:30:05. > :30:11.a separate political party. # Sisters are doing
:30:12. > :30:18.it for themselves... And the leader of the women's
:30:19. > :30:23.equality party, Sophie Walker, joins me now from our
:30:24. > :30:29.studio in Salford. Welcome. Theresa May has recently
:30:30. > :30:32.become our second female Prime Minister, we have women running
:30:33. > :30:38.devolved administrations in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Do we in
:30:39. > :30:40.really need an equality party? The 1500 people gathering in Manchester
:30:41. > :30:44.this weekend would certainly agree with you, and so with the members
:30:45. > :30:49.and registered supporters of this party. There is a big difference
:30:50. > :30:53.between having a female leader and a female leader who understands with a
:30:54. > :30:57.leading of women's needs and experiences and prioritises that. We
:30:58. > :31:04.have been working with the what women want survey, and we hear loud
:31:05. > :31:09.and clear from thousands of women who are still asking for equal pay
:31:10. > :31:12.and affordable childcare and still asking for fair pensions why none of
:31:13. > :31:19.these things appear to be important enough for mainstream Westminster
:31:20. > :31:22.politics. Tom Newton Dunn, why are these key issues still not been
:31:23. > :31:29.resolved? I think Sophie put it very well. There is a huge dichotomy
:31:30. > :31:31.between male and female workforces. Peya, especially coming back into
:31:32. > :31:37.work if you have been away looking after a child. I suppose I can't
:31:38. > :31:47.really answer that question. So do we need a party? There are male MPs
:31:48. > :31:51.who maybe care about traditionally more male dominated things such as
:31:52. > :31:56.defence, maybe we should have a female party to campaign for women's
:31:57. > :32:01.issues. Except of course so far in terms of representation, Sophie, you
:32:02. > :32:05.are not making any ground. You came sixth in the London mayoral
:32:06. > :32:10.election, beating George Galloway. Did you expect to do better? We got
:32:11. > :32:15.a quarter of a million votes in London for the London mayoral
:32:16. > :32:18.election about ten months before we approved membership, and we just
:32:19. > :32:23.narrowly missed out on getting an assembly seat, and we were pleased
:32:24. > :32:30.with that result. The impact that had is being seen today because the
:32:31. > :32:33.London mayor Sadiq Khan is today announcing the results of his gender
:32:34. > :32:37.pay audit, that was our policy. We are the party that aims to get this
:32:38. > :32:42.done by all means, so to see the other parties take on our policies
:32:43. > :32:45.and start doing this and see that they will lose votes if this doesn't
:32:46. > :32:51.become more of a priority, is effective. Imitation is the highest
:32:52. > :32:56.form of flattery, so does it matter if you don't have that much
:32:57. > :33:00.representation electorally if you can pressurise existing groups and
:33:01. > :33:04.parties into taking annual policies? More representation of women in
:33:05. > :33:07.politics is very important, and one of the things we want to do by
:33:08. > :33:12.having this party be as effective as it is is to say to women, there is a
:33:13. > :33:16.space for you in politics, you can make your voices heard. And that is
:33:17. > :33:20.why we are so pleased that more than half of our membership say they have
:33:21. > :33:25.never been a member of a political party ever before, and they are
:33:26. > :33:29.coming to us because they are saying things like, finally, somebody sees
:33:30. > :33:32.me and understands me and can help me to participate in politics. And
:33:33. > :33:37.briefly on Hillary Clinton, do you think more women had a duty to vote
:33:38. > :33:42.for Hillary Clinton in the election? I think the success of Donald Trump
:33:43. > :33:48.is incredibly sad. It was a vote to say that misogyny doesn't matter,
:33:49. > :33:51.racism doesn't matter, sexism doesn't matter, and it was also the
:33:52. > :33:55.successful campaign of someone claiming to be antiestablishment who
:33:56. > :34:00.is about as establishment as it gets. The idea that this person who
:34:01. > :34:04.lives in a gold-plated penthouse who is representing the masses is
:34:05. > :34:09.ludicrous. But the fact that that is out there now means that our job in
:34:10. > :34:11.some ways is easier, because we can stop discussing whether sexism
:34:12. > :34:14.actually exists. Enter your conference.
:34:15. > :34:17.It's time now to find out the answer to our quiz.
:34:18. > :34:19.The question was - who does John Mann MP think
:34:20. > :34:21.should be the next US Ambassador to Britain?
:34:22. > :34:33.What is the correct answer? The correct answer is the Boss, Bruce
:34:34. > :34:35.Springsteen himself. Thank you, and well done.
:34:36. > :34:39.Coming up in a moment it's our regular look at what's been
:34:40. > :34:43.For now, it's time to say goodbye to my guest of the day, Tom.
:34:44. > :34:50.So for the next half an hour we're going to be focussing on Europe.
:34:51. > :34:53.We'll be talking about the vote by MEPs to freeze EU
:34:54. > :34:56.membership talks with Turkey, the reaction in Brussels to a visit
:34:57. > :34:58.by the Brexit Secretary, and we've been to Latvia to find out
:34:59. > :35:03.First, though, here's our guide to the latest from Europe
:35:04. > :35:11.In France, former PM Francois Fillon surprised winning the first
:35:12. > :35:13.round in the centre-right Republican Party's contest to pick
:35:14. > :35:17.a candidate for next year's presidential election.
:35:18. > :35:21.He will face Alain Juppe in a one-off this weekend.
:35:22. > :35:23.Former president Nicolas Sarkozy came a disappointing third.
:35:24. > :35:29.The non-binding vote called for multinational forces and a joint
:35:30. > :35:35.German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she'd run for a fourth term
:35:36. > :35:39.One challenger might be Martin Schulz.
:35:40. > :35:41.The president of the European Parliament said he would swap
:35:42. > :35:49.Ukip face multiple investigations after claims they misspent EU funds
:35:50. > :35:55.And Brexit secretary David Davis met with Guy Verhofstadt, the EU
:35:56. > :35:59.Had Mr Davies really called him Satan?
:36:00. > :36:14.And with us for the next 30 minutes, I've been joined by the Conservative
:36:15. > :36:19.MEP Ashley Fox and the Ukip MEP Gerard Batten.
:36:20. > :36:24.Let's take a look at one of those stories in more detail,
:36:25. > :36:26.and that's the visit by Brexit secretary David Davis
:36:27. > :36:35.Ashley Fox, Manfred Weber says our Government has no idea what Brexit
:36:36. > :36:39.means. Guy Verhofstadt said the process would be tough and very
:36:40. > :36:44.intense. David Davis said it had all been rather fun and very useful. So
:36:45. > :36:48.who isn't quite being straight? This was a getting to know you session,
:36:49. > :36:52.the first time David Davis has been across to Brussels and Strasbourg to
:36:53. > :36:55.get to know the key players. This is about loving relationships. The
:36:56. > :37:00.negotiations don't start until March, so I am happy with how things
:37:01. > :37:04.are going. In our way, we know what the leaders of the EU think, so
:37:05. > :37:08.nobody should be surprised with what they say so far? The Government
:37:09. > :37:13.doesn't have a plan. It doesn't want to leave anyway, in my view. What
:37:14. > :37:22.makes you think that? Misses me was a remain, and if remain had won, she
:37:23. > :37:26.would be saying that that was good. I wrote a plan two years ago on how
:37:27. > :37:36.it would work, and Guy Verhofstadt confirmed to David Davis that the
:37:37. > :37:41.four tenets of the EU are non-negotiable, so they have already
:37:42. > :37:48.told us we can't have control over immigration, so what kind of plan do
:37:49. > :37:54.we have? Jean Lambert is agreed MEP. What do you think of the tone of the
:37:55. > :37:57.meeting between Guy Verhofstadt and David Davis? When you listen to
:37:58. > :38:03.reports, you almost wonder whether they were in the same meeting. It is
:38:04. > :38:06.true that my understanding is that at least their agreement is there
:38:07. > :38:12.needs to be a strong European Union going into the future. So that has
:38:13. > :38:19.implications I think Fathauer the EU handles their side of a negotiation.
:38:20. > :38:22.I think it is also very clear from what I have been hearing that the UK
:38:23. > :38:26.still hasn't really got its head around the magnitude of what it is
:38:27. > :38:31.doing here, and even some of the technicalities, it would appear the
:38:32. > :38:35.David Davis hadn't even realised the European Parliament gets a vote on
:38:36. > :38:40.the article 50 outcome, so there are some of these things which you
:38:41. > :38:47.really think the Government should have a handle on. Fairly basic. Do
:38:48. > :38:53.you think David Davis didn't know? That is simply not true. Do you know
:38:54. > :38:57.that? Yes, I do. I met him before he met Guy Verhofstadt, he was well
:38:58. > :39:02.aware of the position. That would be pretty unbelievable, Jean Lambert,
:39:03. > :39:05.who told you that? Somebody else who was actually in the meeting.
:39:06. > :39:12.Somebody else in the meeting! Yes, the meeting with Verhofstadt. It is
:39:13. > :39:16.the understanding of what is going on here, the timetabling of it, the
:39:17. > :39:19.magnitude of it, the fact that you are not going to have everything
:39:20. > :39:25.neatly wrapped up with a ribbon on it by 2019. You are still going to
:39:26. > :39:30.have a transition period after that, I think it is still not really there
:39:31. > :39:33.and clear in the negotiations. Is that the problem, though, with
:39:34. > :39:37.Theresa May's mantra, that she is not going to give a running
:39:38. > :39:41.commentary? If you don't give some detail and flesh out some of the
:39:42. > :39:46.broad negotiating points, then, Jean Lambert quite rightly, and some of
:39:47. > :39:52.her other colleagues and those on both sides of the political spectrum
:39:53. > :39:57.will fill the gap for you. Lets just wait until March. People want, that
:39:58. > :40:01.is my point. The smoke and noise in the media really doesn't matter.
:40:02. > :40:06.What matters is the result at the end of the negotiations, and what we
:40:07. > :40:09.will see is in the run-up to the negotiations, people like Jean
:40:10. > :40:14.Lambert and others will create a lot of noise in the media, I am
:40:15. > :40:20.concerned with getting a good result for Britain, and so is Theresa May.
:40:21. > :40:23.There is no way that the EU is going to presenters with a mythical deal,
:40:24. > :40:28.they have no reason to because they don't want us to leave. They might
:40:29. > :40:32.let us leave but they might want to punish us. I think what Theresa May
:40:33. > :40:38.wants to do is delay and delay in the event present us with something
:40:39. > :40:42.like a Swiss or Norwegian model, where we still have open borders and
:40:43. > :40:46.a large percentage of the laws, so we might not have bothered at all,
:40:47. > :40:53.but there is a much easier way to leave, repeal the 1972 act, and all
:40:54. > :40:57.the EU directives will remain in the UK Parliament, and we can repeal and
:40:58. > :41:02.amend them as we go. Guy Verhofstadt, chief negotiator for
:41:03. > :41:05.the EU, has spent his whole life campaigning for closer EU
:41:06. > :41:09.negotiation, so was it sensible to appoint somebody as hardliners that
:41:10. > :41:14.in terms of a federalist viewpoint, rightly or wrongly, to the role of
:41:15. > :41:19.chief negotiator? One of the key negotiators is also Michel Barnier
:41:20. > :41:27.of the commission, and it will be national governments that are
:41:28. > :41:34.included in this. Verhofstadt is there to ensure the interests of the
:41:35. > :41:38.European Union. The idea that you can somehow pull the plug and create
:41:39. > :41:43.a whole sense of legal uncertainty in terms of even which jurisdiction
:41:44. > :41:48.applies to things like cables between the UK and mainland Europe,
:41:49. > :41:52.any of these other things, I think is absolute fantasyland. There needs
:41:53. > :41:55.to be something here that is absolutely concrete in terms of
:41:56. > :42:00.legal certainty, and that has to be part of the outcome, and we have to
:42:01. > :42:02.engage not only the European Parliament but our national
:42:03. > :42:08.parliament within this. The idea you can sideline elected buddies is
:42:09. > :42:12.outrageous. But is it acceptable if there are going to be these
:42:13. > :42:14.negotiations that Manfred Weber, for example, calls the Foreign
:42:15. > :42:18.Secretary, Boris Johnson, unbelievably arrogant and say what
:42:19. > :42:22.they like about the British government. Will that help smooth
:42:23. > :42:26.the way? You could also argue whether Boris Johnson has been
:42:27. > :42:31.smoothing the way. What Ashley is saying in terms of a lot of the
:42:32. > :42:38.rhetoric is correct. There will be position taking, there will be
:42:39. > :42:41.stretching things on either side, but in terms of the actual
:42:42. > :42:45.negotiation, there are a lot of nuts and bolts that need to be sorted
:42:46. > :42:48.through. This is not a quick and easy job as some seem to think.
:42:49. > :42:54.There are things here which have enormous imprecations for business,
:42:55. > :42:59.people's daily lives, and that needs to be taken seriously. And on the
:43:00. > :43:07.other side, Boris Johnson threatened sales on prosecco if the Italians
:43:08. > :43:12.didn't come on is that acceptable? Boris Johnson is a star. So you
:43:13. > :43:16.think it is? He was illustrating the point that those countries in Europe
:43:17. > :43:20.will want to continue to trade with us, and I'm confident we will get a
:43:21. > :43:24.good deal. And do you think you will still have to apply as pretty well
:43:25. > :43:28.all EU leaders have said, and the premise to Malta, you would have to
:43:29. > :43:31.have some freedom of movement if you wanted full tariff free access to
:43:32. > :43:37.the single market, and you would have to pay some contribution to the
:43:38. > :43:42.EU? You need to distinguish between being a member of the single
:43:43. > :43:48.market... I said full tariff free access. Canada has just negotiated
:43:49. > :43:52.98% tariff free access, and I think we can do better than that and
:43:53. > :43:55.retain control of our borders. This is a problem solved quickly, the
:43:56. > :44:00.British government can now say to the European Union, we could
:44:01. > :44:04.negotiate forever, but your choice, do you want continued tariff free
:44:05. > :44:06.trade with the UK, or do you want World Trade Organisation rules, and
:44:07. > :44:09.let's give them month to think about it, and they make the decision,
:44:10. > :44:14.because ultimately they will do that anyway. Do you think the Alliance
:44:15. > :44:19.for direct democracy in Europe, of which you are part, will end up
:44:20. > :44:25.having to repay the 173,000 euros of allegedly misspent funds? I am not a
:44:26. > :44:28.member of that, I was very briefly a member of it. There is a double
:44:29. > :44:31.standard here, I have been assured by the people in charge of this that
:44:32. > :44:36.all money was spent in accordance with the rules, and other groups
:44:37. > :44:40.under... Have you been misled? I haven't been misled about anything.
:44:41. > :44:45.The EU Parliament act as judge and jury and executioner in same case.
:44:46. > :44:51.Other groups have spent the money in the same way on polling for example
:44:52. > :44:56.which was available to everybody. So you are admitting it has been
:44:57. > :44:59.misspent? No, I'm not. You said other groups are done the same
:45:00. > :45:04.thing. I'm saying that it wasn't against the rules for them, and
:45:05. > :45:08.political activity has not been funded, but there is a double
:45:09. > :45:10.standard because there is a big six scandal growing in the European
:45:11. > :45:13.Parliament, number of assistants have gone to the Brussels police and
:45:14. > :45:18.made complaints about sexpert jobs, and it is a big scandal that affects
:45:19. > :45:23.particularly EP EP... Police have gone to the parliament and they are
:45:24. > :45:29.being impeded by the authorities. We will look into that, but I wanted to
:45:30. > :45:31.just focus on... It is a double standard. We were living a
:45:32. > :45:36.specifically about the allegedly misspent funds. It is nothing to do
:45:37. > :45:41.with Ukip. Thank you. Jean Abbott, thank you very much.
:45:42. > :45:44.Now, let's talk about one of the most significant votes of the week
:45:45. > :45:47.in the European Parliament, and that was the decision by MEPs
:45:48. > :45:53.to back the suspension of EU membership talks with Turkey
:45:54. > :45:57.Politicians from right to left back a symbolic resolution condemning
:45:58. > :45:58.the Turkish government's "disproportionate repressive
:45:59. > :46:00.measures" after a failed military coup in July.
:46:01. > :46:03.Well, our correspondent Damian Grammaticus has been speaking
:46:04. > :46:06.to Gianni Pittella, the Leader of the Socialists and Democrats
:46:07. > :46:10.in the European Parliament, and asked him why
:46:11. > :46:27.After the coup, he put in jail thousands and thousands of people,
:46:28. > :46:29.journalists, lawyers, politicians, leader of parties, everybody.
:46:30. > :46:42.But without motivation in front of the situation we have decided
:46:43. > :46:50.to take initiative and with other groups we reached a large,
:46:51. > :46:52.a very large majority on this resolution.
:46:53. > :46:55.But isn't it right that at this point in time what the people
:46:56. > :46:59.on the other side of the debate say is that Europe needs Turkey,
:47:00. > :47:04.Now is not the time to stop dialogue?
:47:05. > :47:13.Absolutely, but the dialogue is not stopped.
:47:14. > :47:22.We freeze the talks for accession, not the dialogue.
:47:23. > :47:24.We need talking but we want democratic talk.
:47:25. > :47:27.We want a country in which the citizens are free,
:47:28. > :47:30.are free to discuss, are free to criticise,
:47:31. > :47:48.are free to oppose themselves to the Government.
:47:49. > :47:50.But the view of Erdogan is a liberal and -
:47:51. > :47:53.If he wants to introduce the death penalty, the relationship
:47:54. > :47:56.between the EU and Turkey will finish for always.
:47:57. > :47:59.And what about refugees, because Europe relies on Mr Erdogan
:48:00. > :48:06.for his side of the deal to stop the refugees coming?
:48:07. > :48:11.One thing is not linked with the other things.
:48:12. > :48:17.And I don't think, I don't believe that Erdogan
:48:18. > :48:33.In any case, EU doesn't accept blackmail by Erdogan.
:48:34. > :48:40.Ashley Fox, did you vote for the suspension of EU membership talks
:48:41. > :48:45.with Turkey? No, my group abstained on this resolution. We think it's
:48:46. > :48:51.unhelpful because we regard Turkey as a strategic ally, important in
:48:52. > :48:54.NATO. We don't want to push them towards Putin. At the same time, we
:48:55. > :48:58.are really concerned about what is happening in Turkey at the moment.
:48:59. > :49:03.The arrests of journalists, opposition MPs, but the main
:49:04. > :49:07.opposition party in Turkey say this is unhelpful in their help to
:49:08. > :49:13.re-establish, in - in their trying to retaken democracy in Turkey, this
:49:14. > :49:19.move is unhelpful. Do you not need to make a stand against the things
:49:20. > :49:24.you have listed, 471-37, most MEPs voted to suspend those talks. We
:49:25. > :49:27.regard this megaphone diplomacy by the European Parliament as
:49:28. > :49:32.unhelpful. We want to carry on talking to the Turks, explain that
:49:33. > :49:38.they are important to us. But that we want them to come away from the
:49:39. > :49:43.autocratic system they're developing. This is non-legislative
:49:44. > :49:47.resolution, it's no effect. You called it symbolic, I would call it
:49:48. > :49:51.pointless. It temporarily freezes and everything will be all right in
:49:52. > :49:55.the future. Turkey doesn't even fulfil the EU's own criteria for
:49:56. > :49:59.being a member, it isn't a European country. When there is a progress
:50:00. > :50:04.report on Turkish entry which there is every year or so, we always vote
:50:05. > :50:08.against it, the Ukip MEPs and the Conservative, Lib Dem, I believe the
:50:09. > :50:11.Greens vote for it, I am surprised at Ashley's position because the
:50:12. > :50:15.Conservative Party haven't decided they're leaving the EU, why would
:50:16. > :50:19.you bother to tell the - to tell the EU that Turkey would be a member in
:50:20. > :50:25.the future. You would like Turkey to be a member? In the future? I
:50:26. > :50:30.wouldn't and I think a... Why support accession talks at all? It
:50:31. > :50:35.is a channel of communication to Turkey to encourage them along a
:50:36. > :50:40.democratic path. The point of that is that Erdogan is extremely
:50:41. > :50:43.important. His country is sitting in an extremely important decision,
:50:44. > :50:46.sorry a position. He has already said that if this were to become
:50:47. > :50:50.binding and I take your point that it's not at the moment, that he
:50:51. > :50:55.would open the borders and allow the migrants that he has taken in from
:50:56. > :50:59.the Middle East across into Europe. Why are we leading Turkey up the
:51:00. > :51:03.garden path? They have continual progress reports the Conservatives
:51:04. > :51:06.vote in favour of, including the... It probably suits the Turkish
:51:07. > :51:10.politicians as much as the other politicians. No intention of letting
:51:11. > :51:14.them in. Is there any intention... It's been going on 30 years now.
:51:15. > :51:19.They even less fulfil the criteria for membership now than they did
:51:20. > :51:22.ten, 15 years ago. They're going backwards in terms of human rights
:51:23. > :51:25.and democracy. It was false to say during the referendum campaign
:51:26. > :51:29.accession was about to happen? You have to ask the Conservative, Labour
:51:30. > :51:33.and Lib Dems who always voted for Turkish... It was incorrect to
:51:34. > :51:36.always claim that Turkish accession and 75 million Turks were coming to
:51:37. > :51:39.Europe, because as you have said it's never going to happen. It was
:51:40. > :51:43.true they are being asked to apply and that every time we have a
:51:44. > :51:48.progress report it's voted in favour. It was legitimate of us to
:51:49. > :51:53.say if they did join 75 million boo have -- would have a right to come
:51:54. > :51:58.here. Is it a worry Erdogan could use the stick of opening up borders
:51:59. > :52:06.even if it is not a binding vote against the EU? That is one of many
:52:07. > :52:10.worries, so is Turkey's move to an autocratic system. It's a worry
:52:11. > :52:14.people have been purged from their jobs since the coup in July. We need
:52:15. > :52:21.to maintain a strategic dialogue with Turkey and this megaphone
:52:22. > :52:25.diplomacy is unhelpful. We need to establish a proper talks with Turkey
:52:26. > :52:29.about where their position is in relation to the European Union. I
:52:30. > :52:32.very much doubt that is full membership. I don't suppose that
:52:33. > :52:33.would ever get through the European Parliament. All right. We will leave
:52:34. > :52:36.it there. Now, what does the election
:52:37. > :52:39.of Donald Trump as US president mean It's a member of both the EU
:52:40. > :52:48.and Nato, but during his election campaign Mr Trump suggested that
:52:49. > :52:50.America might no longer defend Nato allies against military action
:52:51. > :52:52.from neighbouring Russia. In the latest in our Meet
:52:53. > :52:54.the Neighbours series, Adam's been to Latvia
:52:55. > :53:05.to find out more. Friday 11th November and it's a big
:53:06. > :53:15.day in the Latvian capital Riga. Lacplesis was a hero,
:53:16. > :53:22.he was a man with bear ears, He killed a bear and he put those
:53:23. > :53:28.ears so he had more power. Also known as Bear Slayer Day,
:53:29. > :53:32.it marks the moment in 1919 when Latvians saw off foreign
:53:33. > :53:35.fighters ensuring the But it's also their equivalent
:53:36. > :53:41.of Remembrance Day and a chance for the Ministry of Defence to talk
:53:42. > :53:46.about modern day threats. This is a Scimitar tank
:53:47. > :53:49.from the Latvian Army. Here you will also find
:53:50. > :53:57.troops from the US Army from the 107 3rd Airborne,
:53:58. > :54:00.that's because in the last few months NATO has been
:54:01. > :54:05.bolstering its presence in all three Baltic states to send a clear
:54:06. > :54:07.message to their next Meet the Defence Minister,
:54:08. > :54:10.a former Olympic weightlifter. Now grappling with what he sees
:54:11. > :54:13.as a Russian build-up on his border. We saw what's happened around
:54:14. > :54:23.borders and the scale of exercise We see strategic
:54:24. > :54:28.bombers, not just close to our borders but close to UK
:54:29. > :54:31.and Portugal borders too. Of course, this is real
:54:32. > :54:36.rattling of sabres. For the adults, Russia provokes
:54:37. > :54:45.a mixture of fear and resignation. We always between two big
:54:46. > :54:49.enemies, Russia is one. Donald Trump is elected,
:54:50. > :54:51.he said great things about Russia. 40% of the population
:54:52. > :54:59.is ethnicically Russian Miroslav runs a small political
:55:00. > :55:08.party that campaigns for them. I think that the industry
:55:09. > :55:17.in United States and maybe in Europe also is interest in this tension,
:55:18. > :55:20.because it will allow to sell more Second reason, European democracy
:55:21. > :55:30.now is in some sort of deadlock Lacplesis Day ends with thousands
:55:31. > :55:36.of candles laid by Riga Castle. It's to remember fallen soldiers
:55:37. > :55:40.and it's really quite impressive. Latvia has been on the frontline
:55:41. > :55:56.of history before, now its found Adam Fleming reporting. Can you
:55:57. > :56:02.understand the fear of the Baltic states like Latvia since Donald
:56:03. > :56:06.Trump's been elected? I am not a fan of Trump nor Putin. I think Donald
:56:07. > :56:11.Trump won because he wasn't Hillary Clinton. That's about the best you
:56:12. > :56:17.can say. I think he made a mistake by not backing NATO. Putin doesn't
:56:18. > :56:20.have an ideology, but he is interested in winning prestige at
:56:21. > :56:24.home by perhaps winning back the territories... So do you understand
:56:25. > :56:28.the fear? I think Donald Trump needs to say he is 100% behind NATO and we
:56:29. > :56:34.will protect NATO countries under the clause which says one attacked,
:56:35. > :56:37.all day tacked. On that basis do you think why they're worried about the
:56:38. > :56:42.future policy and relationship between Putin and Trump? Very much
:56:43. > :56:46.so. It underlines the importance of NATO and unlike Trump and unlike
:56:47. > :56:52.Nigel Farage, I don't admire Putin, I think he is a menace. What about
:56:53. > :56:56.the problem of Russians, ethnic Russians or those who speak the
:56:57. > :57:00.language in a state like Latvia, could you see it going the same way
:57:01. > :57:03.as Ukraine? I think what happened the Russian who is wanted to return
:57:04. > :57:07.to Russia when the Soviet Union broke up went back and I understand
:57:08. > :57:12.the Russian speakers who lived there were happy by and large to be part
:57:13. > :57:19.of Latvia, I am in the an expert but that's my understanding. Putin
:57:20. > :57:24.doesn't need reality, it's like Hitler and Czech in 1938, he doesn't
:57:25. > :57:29.need reality. He needs propaganda messages. He is dangerous. He is
:57:30. > :57:33.rationale. He is a criminal. He works on the basis of increasing his
:57:34. > :57:37.power and how much money he can steal. He might decide the West is
:57:38. > :57:40.weak enough in order to try and take back some territories formally owned
:57:41. > :57:45.by the Soviet Union. One of the potential solutions would be for
:57:46. > :57:49.increased spending by other NATO members. That some people have said
:57:50. > :57:53.would be enough to allay Donald Trump's reluctance to come in on
:57:54. > :57:57.behalf of other states. Do you think that would work and do you think
:57:58. > :58:01.that should happen? I think it's important all NATO members pay their
:58:02. > :58:06.fair share, if don't made one valid point it was that Europe is
:58:07. > :58:10.freeloading within the NATO all liance so United Kingdom, Poland,
:58:11. > :58:14.Estonia, Greece, only four countries meet the 2% target and all of them
:58:15. > :58:19.should. Would you like to hear a commitment from Donald Trump that he
:58:20. > :58:22.would actually or America would come in on behalf of another NATO member
:58:23. > :58:28.state in the event of any sort of aggression? Absolutely. It's very
:58:29. > :58:32.important that NATO stands by all its members and the United States
:58:33. > :58:35.stands by its European allies, we don't want to detach European
:58:36. > :58:39.security from the security of the United States. But all European
:58:40. > :58:42.countries that are members of NATO have that responsibility to pay
:58:43. > :58:47.their fair share. We do that in Britain. All members should do so.
:58:48. > :58:52.All right, thank you both very much. We agree. It's a good point to end
:58:53. > :58:59.the programme. Thank you very much. From all of us, bye.