:00:36. > :00:38.Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics.
:00:39. > :00:42.Unions seek government assurances about the future of 4,500 jobs
:00:43. > :00:45.at two Vauxhall car factories, after the company is bought
:00:46. > :00:50.Jeremy Corbyn publishes his personal tax return and insists he's paid
:00:51. > :00:58.Should all political leaders have to follow suit?
:00:59. > :01:00.Ahead of Chancellor Philip Hammond's first Budget on Wednesday,
:01:01. > :01:04.just how reliable are the economic forecasts used by the Treasury
:01:05. > :01:09.to work out the UK's tax and spending plans?
:01:10. > :01:12.And after Donald Trump accuses Barack Obama of being a "bad or sick
:01:13. > :01:15.man" over claims the former US president tapped his phones, we'll
:01:16. > :01:27.All that in the next hour, and with us for the whole
:01:28. > :01:30.of the programme today I'm joined by the Business Minister
:01:31. > :01:33.Margot James, and the shadow Treasury Minister Jonathan Reynolds.
:01:34. > :01:39.Let's kick off with the mini-media storm over
:01:40. > :01:43.Yesterday the Labour leader published details
:01:44. > :01:49.of his income for 2015/16 - amounting to ?114,342.
:01:50. > :01:52.But his return didn't appear to list additional income he's entitled
:01:53. > :01:56.to as Leader of the Opposition, something his office later cleared
:01:57. > :02:01.up by explaining it was listed under the heading "public office".
:02:02. > :02:04.Speaking on the Andrew Marr show yesterday, the chancellor
:02:05. > :02:12.Philip Hammond said it was all a bit of a gimmick.
:02:13. > :02:17.He was asked if he would be willing to publish his tax return.
:02:18. > :02:21.Just for the record, my tax affairs are
:02:22. > :02:22.all perfectly regular and up-to-date.
:02:23. > :02:27.This demonstration politics isn't helping
:02:28. > :02:34.to create a better atmosphere in British
:02:35. > :02:37.politics and I note the Labour Party is now
:02:38. > :02:42.proposing a policy that anybody earning over
:02:43. > :02:46.a ?1 million, which I as a cabinet minister certainly am not, will have
:02:47. > :02:47.to publish their tax returns, make them public.
:02:48. > :02:50.That is likely to drive away talent and investors that
:02:51. > :02:53.Britain needs to create the global future that we are trying to build.
:02:54. > :03:02.If he hasn't got anything to hide, why shouldn't he publish it? He is
:03:03. > :03:06.abiding by all the rules, his tax affairs are up-to-date and it is a
:03:07. > :03:13.private matter between him and the revenue and I think he is absolutely
:03:14. > :03:16.right. It has gone wrong for Jeremy Corbyn. It was not clear up what his
:03:17. > :03:21.tax return was stating and whether it included his salary for being
:03:22. > :03:25.Leader of the Opposition? His tax return is correct. There was some
:03:26. > :03:30.confusion when it was first reported but it is correct. This shows why
:03:31. > :03:34.transparency is a good thing. If there is any confusion than having
:03:35. > :03:37.it out in the public domain is a good thing. For the Chancellor, you
:03:38. > :03:40.are in charge of the tax rates for a whole range of things and I think
:03:41. > :03:44.people do want to know that it is transparent and it is the right
:03:45. > :03:49.thing for the Chancellor to publish that. Looking at this policy of
:03:50. > :03:51.people earning over ?1 million should also publish their tax
:03:52. > :04:08.return, wouldn't people be reassured about is people
:04:09. > :04:10.earning whatever they are earning have a proper relationship with HMRC
:04:11. > :04:13.which doesn't include any favours and as far as HMRC are concerned it
:04:14. > :04:17.is transparent between the individual and the tax authority. I
:04:18. > :04:22.think the Chancellor has a good point that people have all sorts of
:04:23. > :04:25.legitimate arrangements involving their children and other matters of
:04:26. > :04:28.that nature if they are earning that sort of money and I think we should
:04:29. > :04:33.respect their privacy as long as we have faith with the tax authorities
:04:34. > :04:38.to apply the law evenly which I think after several reforms under
:04:39. > :04:40.the last government, we will now have.
:04:41. > :04:46.That policy is gesture politics, it is symbolic, a gimmick? How much
:04:47. > :04:50.money we raise? It is not about raising money, it is about
:04:51. > :04:55.transparency. There is a lack of trust in politics and people playing
:04:56. > :04:59.by the rules of their very powerful or if they are earning a lot of
:05:00. > :05:02.money. In Scandinavia it hasn't had any of the negative consequences
:05:03. > :05:06.that Philip Hammond mentioned when he was asked about it, if there is
:05:07. > :05:11.best practice in other countries, shouldn't we look at that and have
:05:12. > :05:17.of that and say they have more transparent systems, why can't we
:05:18. > :05:24.apply that he? I think that gimmick does more to undermine trust in
:05:25. > :05:28.politics. Why? Rushing out this policy that everyone earning over a
:05:29. > :05:35.certain amount has got to publish their tax returns says there is
:05:36. > :05:42.something wrong with the system and HMRC are going after everybody, I
:05:43. > :05:45.think trying to make out that unless you have published your tax return
:05:46. > :05:51.there is something wrong with the system is merely trying to whip up a
:05:52. > :05:57.lack of trust which I think is completely unnecessary. But those
:05:58. > :06:00.concerns do exist already. If you do reduce tax avoidance than that will
:06:01. > :06:04.be a different thing. You have admitted it would not raise any
:06:05. > :06:08.money by doing it because these tax returns are verified by HMRC sir
:06:09. > :06:12.Howard it reduced tax avoidance? I think anything that is more
:06:13. > :06:17.transparent makes it harder to be involved in tax avoidance. That is
:06:18. > :06:22.an obvious point to make. Really it is about public trust. It is a shame
:06:23. > :06:28.that public trust is lacking in politicians and how the tax system
:06:29. > :06:33.works. There are concerns from individuals and businesses as well.
:06:34. > :06:38.Would all MPs in your mind have to publish your tax returns? In my case
:06:39. > :06:41.there are not many MPs who earn over ?1 million that if they are involved
:06:42. > :06:45.they should be treated the same way as individuals, but clearly, ?1
:06:46. > :06:49.million would be a starting point. There would be a review on what goes
:06:50. > :06:59.on in other countries, particularly Scandinavia. If there are things to
:07:00. > :07:02.learn then we must be willing to learn them. No MPs are allowed to
:07:03. > :07:04.earn that money but some ministers have outside money which ministers
:07:05. > :07:08.are not allowed to engender. I think the Labour Party are clear, they
:07:09. > :07:12.want other people to publish their tax returns, entrepreneurs and
:07:13. > :07:17.business people but not politicians. I don't think that does anything to
:07:18. > :07:21.further public trust? Philip Hammond could publish his. But he is not
:07:22. > :07:24.going to so I don't think you will have much luck there.
:07:25. > :07:28.The former Shadow Chancellor and Strictly contestant hinted
:07:29. > :07:30.yesterday that he was thinking of a new job,
:07:31. > :07:33.so our question for today is, what is he toying with doing?
:07:34. > :07:40.At the end of the show Jonathan and Margot
:07:41. > :07:53.The future of 4500 jobs at two Vauxhall car factories in England
:07:54. > :07:58.are the centre of a huge business deal confirmed this morning. The
:07:59. > :08:03.parent company of French car-maker Peugeot, PSA, has confirmed it will
:08:04. > :08:08.by the European operations of the US firm General Motors, in a ?2 billion
:08:09. > :08:12.deal. The leader of the Unite union Len McCluskey was asked what he
:08:13. > :08:14.wanted to see the government. Simply be there, simply make certain
:08:15. > :08:17.that whatever debates and discussions are taking place,
:08:18. > :08:19.whatever the French Government and the German Government are offering
:08:20. > :08:22.in terms of incentives, we should also be looking at that and of
:08:23. > :08:24.course the Government's talk about an industrial strategy, well, now
:08:25. > :08:27.they have to demonstrate it is more than words, we have to make sure
:08:28. > :08:30.there is proper government-led Speaking in the last hour
:08:31. > :08:36.the Business Secretary Greg Clark Well, Vauxhall is a very important
:08:37. > :08:45.company, it is a successful company and the conversations
:08:46. > :08:49.that the Prime Minister and I have have had with both GMA
:08:50. > :08:53.and PSA tell me they plan to safeguard the plant, honour their
:08:54. > :08:55.commitments and look to increase the performance
:08:56. > :09:01.and the sales of cars. So we want to hold them to those
:09:02. > :09:04.commitments, but the messages we have had leave me to be
:09:05. > :09:06.cautiously optimistic. Our assistant political editor
:09:07. > :09:18.Norman Smith joins me now. Greg Clark is cautiously optimistic
:09:19. > :09:26.but there is a lot at stake here, not just the 4500 jobs but also the
:09:27. > :09:31.suppliers which are connected to those car plants? That is right.
:09:32. > :09:36.Estimates of up to 25,000 additional jobs are at risk. The position is in
:09:37. > :09:40.the short-term ministers are fairly confident now that production will
:09:41. > :09:43.continue in the UK. They have received reassurances from PSA he
:09:44. > :09:48.recognised that Vauxhall is an iconic brand and so on. The
:09:49. > :09:52.difficulty becomes after 2021 when decisions have to be made about
:09:53. > :09:56.where future car production will be based and in particular, from the
:09:57. > :10:02.middle of next year, positions will have to be made about future
:10:03. > :10:06.Vauxhall car lines. That is where I think it gets difficult. We are
:10:07. > :10:09.right slap bang in the middle of the Brexit negotiations. Although Greg
:10:10. > :10:14.Clark was trying to play down the impact of Brexit, I don't think
:10:15. > :10:18.there is any getting away from it. That creates an element of
:10:19. > :10:23.uncertainty. We do not know what our future trading relationships will
:10:24. > :10:27.be. It could be advantageous for PSA to retain a manufacturing base in
:10:28. > :10:30.Britain. On the other hand, it could be so difficult and problematic, the
:10:31. > :10:44.trading relationships, that they don't want to. But I think the real
:10:45. > :10:46.difficulty is the politics of this. Very obviously, we will be involved
:10:47. > :10:48.in a 3-way wrestling match with the French and German governments. PSA
:10:49. > :10:51.is partly French owned state company. They will fight tooth nail
:10:52. > :10:56.to keep their come please open. Angela Merkel is the big beast of
:10:57. > :11:00.the EU. She will use every bit of influence she has got to keep the
:11:01. > :11:05.German car plants open, and the real danger is do we lose political
:11:06. > :11:09.leverage outside of the EU? In that sense, Vauxhall could well be a test
:11:10. > :11:14.case of our economic prospects after Brexit. Fighting with the French and
:11:15. > :11:19.Germans if you like over whether future of these car plants should
:11:20. > :11:23.be. We also know the Peugeot boss Carlos Tavares is a renowned cost
:11:24. > :11:27.cutter, that is his reputation. If he wants to consolidate can we
:11:28. > :11:33.assume there will be fewer plants and therefore the decision you are
:11:34. > :11:41.talking bout will happen post-2021? The consensus in the car industry is
:11:42. > :11:45.that he has 24 plants at the moment. There will be a rationalisation. I
:11:46. > :11:48.think there is some comfort in government that Barral some strong
:11:49. > :11:53.economic if not political reasons for keeping production in the UK, in
:11:54. > :11:58.part because Vauxhall is such a big product here. 16% of total car
:11:59. > :12:03.sales, so why would you want to relocate production? Secondly, it is
:12:04. > :12:07.argued that we are at the forefront of leading car technologies, be it
:12:08. > :12:11.an electric cars, no carbon, battery storage. In other words, there is a
:12:12. > :12:16.massive incentive to have car production here. It is even
:12:17. > :12:20.suggested it could be a good idea to bring some Peugeot production here
:12:21. > :12:24.to expand on the Peugeot market. The difficulties are whether the
:12:25. > :12:32.economics are trumped by the politics Post Brexit. Norman Smith,
:12:33. > :12:35.thank you. Jonathan Reynolds, what impact do you think this will have?
:12:36. > :12:40.The automotive industry is the jewel in the crown of the British economy.
:12:41. > :12:49.It has been exported and a huge story. The Vauxhall brand is strong
:12:50. > :12:53.in the UK but now everything that has moved to the UK will no longer
:12:54. > :13:01.count as being a single market product for exports from the EU. I
:13:02. > :13:04.grew up in Sunderland next to the Nissan car factory. I'm very proud
:13:05. > :13:08.of what British workers can do but the government has got to address
:13:09. > :13:13.some uncertainty. The government has got to fight hard for the car
:13:14. > :13:16.workers. What incentives should the government be offering to show? The
:13:17. > :13:20.government has had a lot of discussions with Peugeot, with the
:13:21. > :13:25.French government and unions. Both Greg Clark and the Prime Minister
:13:26. > :13:33.have met Carlos Tavares, the CEO of Peugeot. And we can be cautiously
:13:34. > :13:38.optimistic. Until about 2021? The reassurances we have had have not
:13:39. > :13:42.been likely given and Peugeot recognises that Vauxhall is an
:13:43. > :13:46.iconic brand and that it is fundamental to the British car
:13:47. > :13:51.market, in which they are investing. But of Britain comes out of the
:13:52. > :13:55.single market and the customs union then everything changes? Not
:13:56. > :13:59.everything changes. The fundamental performance of the automotive sector
:14:00. > :14:02.does not change. Ellesmere Port is one of the most competitive car
:14:03. > :14:08.plants in the whole of Europe. We are continuing to invest in the auto
:14:09. > :14:12.sector. The industrial strategy has fantastic plans in the future to
:14:13. > :14:16.make sure that Britain is at the epicentre of battery development, of
:14:17. > :14:21.vehicle emissions and all of those things. But there will be changing
:14:22. > :14:25.relationships once Britain comes out of the single market and the current
:14:26. > :14:30.trading relations that exist and whatever deal is done? There will be
:14:31. > :14:34.that the industrial strategy is quite clear. We want to make Britain
:14:35. > :14:39.play to its strengths and that will be included as a top priority within
:14:40. > :14:45.the Brexit negotiations. The furtherance of our auto sector as
:14:46. > :14:51.well as top sectors within our economy. It could be that Peugeot
:14:52. > :14:55.decide to put more of their focus on plants in the UK? There would be
:14:56. > :14:59.some argument for that. That is why I wish the government would give us
:15:00. > :15:03.more detail. Some of these car plants make cars in seconds. You
:15:04. > :15:07.cannot possibly foresee how any delay at customs or even with a
:15:08. > :15:13.database of getting products from one country to another could impact
:15:14. > :15:16.on those in a way which would keep them productive. I do resent that
:15:17. > :15:22.when we ask in Parliament how was this going to happen that we are
:15:23. > :15:24.accused of being against business. How do you guarantee that trade at
:15:25. > :15:32.customs points? We have established that the sectors
:15:33. > :15:36.are top priorities when the Article 50 is triggered and the formal
:15:37. > :15:41.negotiations start. It will be impossible to give any guarantees at
:15:42. > :15:46.what is a two-way process of negotiations that will last at least
:15:47. > :15:51.two years. But we are putting those sectors of the economy at the
:15:52. > :15:58.forefront in terms of a good trade agreement with our neighbours and
:15:59. > :15:59.indeed the negotiation of free trade agreements around the world. Thank
:16:00. > :16:01.you. Now on Wednesday the Chancellor will
:16:02. > :16:04.stand up and present the Budget. But before he announces any
:16:05. > :16:07.new spending promises or tax cuts, Mr Hammond will read out
:16:08. > :16:09.the economic forecasts This is the Government -
:16:10. > :16:13.and other independent bodies - scanning the horizon to try
:16:14. > :16:16.and predict what will happen to the key economic indicators
:16:17. > :16:18.such as economic growth, But not everyone is convinced these
:16:19. > :16:24.forecasts are useful guides. And now the Taxpayers' Alliance has
:16:25. > :16:26.produced research showing just how wide of the mark some
:16:27. > :16:33.of the numbers can be. The TPA has looked back to 2010,
:16:34. > :16:35.when George Osborne was Chancellor, to see whether the five-year
:16:36. > :16:37.forecasts made then When it came to predictions
:16:38. > :16:43.on economic growth, The forecast in 2010 was for the UK
:16:44. > :16:53.economy to be worth ?1.9 trillion. And in 2015 it came
:16:54. > :16:55.in at ?1.88 trillion - But on the deficit, the Government
:16:56. > :17:06.failed to anticipate choppy waters, assuming borrowing would be cut
:17:07. > :17:08.to ?20 billion. In fact in 2015 the deficit
:17:09. > :17:10.was almost four times Meanwhile, it didn't see the black
:17:11. > :17:17.clouds massing around government revenues,
:17:18. > :17:19.thinking income tax would raise In the end, the take was a fifth
:17:20. > :17:28.less than what had been expected. But with employment,
:17:29. > :17:30.the weather turned out to be better than predicted,
:17:31. > :17:34.with 200,000 more people in work I'm now joined by Alex Wild
:17:35. > :17:38.from the Taxpayers' Alliance, who compiled the figures we've
:17:39. > :17:54.just been looking at. It is hardly surprising that
:17:55. > :17:58.five-year forecasts aren't completely accurate, isn't the point
:17:59. > :18:02.the Government uses rolling forecasts and events change things.
:18:03. > :18:07.Yes and there have been a lot of policy change with income tax,
:18:08. > :18:12.personal allowance has gone up and corporation tax has come down. Even
:18:13. > :18:15.on GDP, you said it was plain sailing and they were just about
:18:16. > :18:21.right, but the path to getting there has been different to what was
:18:22. > :18:26.initially forecast in 2010. But the point of exercise is ahead of
:18:27. > :18:31.budget, any wind fall that comes to the Chancellor, it is a ridiculous
:18:32. > :18:36.concept, when we're borrowing so much. We have got to be careful we
:18:37. > :18:42.don't spend all this wind fall, because things, this is very
:18:43. > :18:49.difficult to predict and the OBR has a difficult job. So fuel duty it is
:18:50. > :18:54.policy that fuel duty will go up with inflation. But nobody expects
:18:55. > :18:59.them to do that. But that is the constraints they're under. Are you
:19:00. > :19:05.saying predictions should be dumped. How would governments be able to
:19:06. > :19:08.plan if not for some sort of guideline, however difficult it is.
:19:09. > :19:14.I'm not saying they should be dumped. But I'm saying we,
:19:15. > :19:18.politicians, journalists, etc, should be sceptical about these
:19:19. > :19:25.things. Some are easier than others. If you look at the GPD numbers being
:19:26. > :19:28.OK. If you look at exports, business investment and earnings growth, that
:19:29. > :19:34.is the almost pin the tail on the donkey and they have got to be
:19:35. > :19:42.careful with this. Do you agree it is often pinning the tail on to the
:19:43. > :19:45.donkey. If you look at the previous forecasts and Paul Johnson said
:19:46. > :19:49.there is uncertainty and the forecasts are not worth the paper
:19:50. > :19:55.they're written on. I the fact the economy is roughly the size the
:19:56. > :19:59.former Chancellor predicted. But the deficit is far higher. They said
:20:00. > :20:03.they would eliminate it. The new Government came in and put back the
:20:04. > :20:10.time at which we would be living within our means to 2021 and I think
:20:11. > :20:15.that there are some, sometimes some sensible decisions that need to be
:20:16. > :20:19.need as you go through a period that may involve more spending, but
:20:20. > :20:26.sometimes revenues are beyond the Chancellor's control. If you're
:20:27. > :20:34.basing policies, isn't that the point, on the predictions and you
:20:35. > :20:44.believe the deficit would come down and you are trying to plan, you're
:20:45. > :20:48.going to be way off the mark? No, your adjusting it on an annual basis
:20:49. > :20:52.and determining the decisions based on current forecalveses, not
:20:53. > :20:57.forecasts -- forecasts. You mentioned the jobs miracle and it
:20:58. > :21:01.has been a miracle. We were all warned that when the public sector
:21:02. > :21:04.had to come under control in terms of spending that people would lose
:21:05. > :21:09.their jobs and unemployment would mount. The opposite happened and we
:21:10. > :21:14.have a million more businesses operating since 2010. That was one
:21:15. > :21:20.of the predictions that Labour got wrong? When warning about high
:21:21. > :21:25.unemployment figures, it didn't happen. There is a variability about
:21:26. > :21:28.forecasts and each year you see people arguing against things that
:21:29. > :21:42.they were in favour of the year before when the forecalveses are
:21:43. > :21:50.different. Forecalveses were -- forecasts were different. So the we
:21:51. > :21:55.have to make political choices and the government makes bad ones. And
:21:56. > :22:02.if you look at social care, the Chancellor will be forced to throw
:22:03. > :22:05.additional money to ameliorate the effects of policy changes, because
:22:06. > :22:11.they were the wrong ones? No, I think that any way we have got to
:22:12. > :22:15.wait until Wednesday, I don't know what the Chancellor will do. There
:22:16. > :22:19.have been comment, I would add anything to what you have said. You
:22:20. > :22:24.understand that will happen? No, I don't know what will happen. But
:22:25. > :22:29.there has been newspaper comment that those areas, but there has been
:22:30. > :22:33.comment there will be investment in technical education and in
:22:34. > :22:37.productivity with the national productivity council with more
:22:38. > :22:41.money. So there has been some announcements that we shouldn't
:22:42. > :22:47.overlook. Wonder where those comments came from? I can't imagine.
:22:48. > :22:53.You accept the Government do need to have some kind of estimates to work
:22:54. > :22:57.off. What are you suggesting as a sort of alternative. I'm not
:22:58. > :23:03.suggesting any alternative. It is important that I think when we look
:23:04. > :23:07.at budgets we look more at what the policy decisions are, rather than
:23:08. > :23:10.the forecasts. It seems a lot of coverage centres around the
:23:11. > :23:15.forecasts. At the last, the autumn statement, there were sort of some
:23:16. > :23:26.reporting of we found out what the cost of Brexit is and it is 59
:23:27. > :23:31.billion, that is crazy, we have no idea, well we have some idea, but it
:23:32. > :23:35.is difficult to tell. Last week there was numbers from the
:23:36. > :23:41.resolution foundation about inequality and poverty. But in 2011
:23:42. > :23:44.there was numbers projecting child poverty numbers which have been been
:23:45. > :23:50.way wide of the mark. So we have or the kabful. Are I you saying you
:23:51. > :23:54.don't believe the predictions that say if the benefit cuts are
:23:55. > :23:58.implemented and the poorest 15% of population will have lower incomes
:23:59. > :24:06.in five years time, because of that freeze in benefits? What I'm saying
:24:07. > :24:13.is I don't believe the predictions from 2011. What do you think of
:24:14. > :24:17.these? I'm sceptical about it. A lot 06 this hinges on, wage growth and
:24:18. > :24:22.the forecasts for that have been all over the place. But mostly on the
:24:23. > :24:26.negative side. You will use the figures and predictions as
:24:27. > :24:31.ammunition to fire at the Government, but don't you share the
:24:32. > :24:40.scepticism if they were worried about the poverty indicators in 2010
:24:41. > :24:43.are you sceptical now? I'm not saying there is anything better to
:24:44. > :24:48.go on. Well that is not very helpful. You have to use the figures
:24:49. > :24:58.that are available. Do you use the ones that support your political
:24:59. > :25:03.narrative. We would like them to analyse our plans and clarify health
:25:04. > :25:07.spending to see how much money it needs. We are in favour of more
:25:08. > :25:13.independent scrutiny. Why haven't you got any costed spending plans?
:25:14. > :25:18.We have spoke on the members of Shadow Cabinet who said they would
:25:19. > :25:23.spend the money on the NHS and social care, but there are no
:25:24. > :25:29.costings. That is not true. If you look at the tax cuts that are
:25:30. > :25:33.programmed, it is ?70 billion. That figure is disputed and you're
:25:34. > :25:41.respent the money you say would be saved from corporation tax cuts
:25:42. > :25:48.There is the cut to capital gains tax and we are at the point if you
:25:49. > :25:52.would tackle the deficit and have money to spend to address social
:25:53. > :25:55.care and the NHS and the cuts to disability benefits. The Chancellor
:25:56. > :26:03.can't hide and say he can't tackle the problems. If the tax reseats
:26:04. > :26:08.have been more promises, should that go to alleviate the suffering caused
:26:09. > :26:13.by cuts in social care. I don't accept what Jonathan said about the
:26:14. > :26:17.NHS. We are spending more on the NHS year on year and the Conservative
:26:18. > :26:21.was the only party that committed itself to funding what the Chief
:26:22. > :26:30.Executive of the NHS said was needed. I don't accept. Answer my
:26:31. > :26:35.question about social care. Should the ?12 billion that has been found
:26:36. > :26:39.should that go in to plug the funding gaps in social care? I think
:26:40. > :26:45.the Chancellor may have something to say on social care, I don't know.
:26:46. > :26:53.But I think that we to be careful, we we have still got a deficit and
:26:54. > :26:57.need to bring that down to keep maintain, the confidence of
:26:58. > :27:06.investors. And we have got to do a job to make sure that British
:27:07. > :27:12.business is competitive. So it is a mistake to look at pots of money and
:27:13. > :27:15.say we should divert it here. That is a mistaken way at looking at what
:27:16. > :27:18.we expect from the Chancellor. After last week's Stormont elections
:27:19. > :27:20.in Northern Ireland, party leaders in Belfast are today
:27:21. > :27:23.getting down to the business of trying to negotiate
:27:24. > :27:25.a new power-sharing deal - which could see the Democratic
:27:26. > :27:28.Unionist Party and Sinn Fein working together again
:27:29. > :27:30.in the Northern Ireland Executive. Let's talk now to the BBC's
:27:31. > :27:32.Northern Ireland Political Editor Mark Devenport who's outside
:27:33. > :27:43.Stormont House where If you were a betting man, do you
:27:44. > :27:47.think they will agree a deal that means they could work together
:27:48. > :27:51.again? I'm a bit sceptical as to whether they will be able to agree a
:27:52. > :27:59.deal within the three weeks that is set aside at the moment under the
:28:00. > :28:05.time table. I think it is possible that he will try and play for time
:28:06. > :28:09.and stretch out that deadline maybe into April, in the hope of providing
:28:10. > :28:18.some common ground. At the moment the stand off between the two party
:28:19. > :28:26.is whether Aileen Foster can continue as First Minister, will the
:28:27. > :28:32.green energy scheme scandal has not been solved, Sinn Fein say they
:28:33. > :28:40.won't work her her. What the is balance of power now? Historically
:28:41. > :28:45.it has been a blow to unionism. Stormont was a by word for unionist
:28:46. > :28:50.rule and this is the first time since the creation of Northern
:28:51. > :28:58.Ireland state that it does not have a unionist majority. The balance of
:28:59. > :29:01.power is held by the non-aligned people. What impact do you think
:29:02. > :29:10.that will have in terms of balance of the debate. If the unionists have
:29:11. > :29:13.lost their power of veto, within the power-sharing Government, what
:29:14. > :29:20.impact will that have on the negotiations? One thing to bear in
:29:21. > :29:26.mind is Stormont doesn't operate like a normal democracy, although
:29:27. > :29:31.the others hold the balance of power, the nationalists and
:29:32. > :29:36.unionists have a veto and you need a cross community vote. So a bit of a
:29:37. > :29:41.recipe for stalemate. The question that has to be sorted out is whether
:29:42. > :29:45.there will be a new Stormont, because at the moment, there is
:29:46. > :29:49.still a stand off over that position of Arlene Foster. We don't know
:29:50. > :29:55.whether he may nominate a care taker. Do you think there is any
:29:56. > :29:59.movement that would suggest that Arlene Foster would step aside for
:30:00. > :30:06.Sinn Fein to accept going back to power sharing? Well we are hearing
:30:07. > :30:13.some talk from within the DUP and some politicses are unhappy about --
:30:14. > :30:17.political politicians are unhappy about Arlene Foster. But the
:30:18. > :30:21.question is whether that concern within the DUP ends up with her
:30:22. > :30:26.maybe making that offer to put in a care taker First Minister or whether
:30:27. > :30:33.the DUP simply rally around her and say because it is a Sinn Fein demand
:30:34. > :30:40.they won't bow to it. It is hard to second guess this one. Thank you.
:30:41. > :30:50.Three weeks has been given for some sort of timetable, do you see Arlene
:30:51. > :30:56.Foster as being the sticking point here? James Brokenshire will be
:30:57. > :31:00.talking to politicians today. And they have also been talking to the
:31:01. > :31:04.Republic of Ireland Premier. I think it is for them to sort out who will
:31:05. > :31:10.be leading the Northern Ireland Assembly and who should not be.
:31:11. > :31:13.People have voted, they have exercised their democratic right.
:31:14. > :31:19.They are in the same situation? You will still have the two main parties
:31:20. > :31:23.of the DUP and Sinn Fein, does not solve anything. It is up to those
:31:24. > :31:27.parties to work together and maybe the independents will help them to
:31:28. > :31:30.work together and James Brokenshire as Northern Ireland Minister will be
:31:31. > :31:35.doing his best to bring them together. They have to work
:31:36. > :31:39.together. The prospect of direct rule is hanging over Stormont. Do
:31:40. > :31:43.you think the secretary of state should play a more interventionist
:31:44. > :31:47.role to try and bang heads together? It is difficult. The system is
:31:48. > :31:52.designed to make the two blocks cooperate. That is why the
:31:53. > :31:57.power-sharing agreement is in place. Direct rule is not an option. The
:31:58. > :32:02.Conservative Party is dependent on some unionist votes for Brexit in
:32:03. > :32:06.the House of Commons. In the rest of the UK we have become complacent
:32:07. > :32:11.about the politics in Northern Ireland. Not just in Westminster,
:32:12. > :32:15.I'm talking about whole country. People were not really interested in
:32:16. > :32:18.the impact of Brexit Northern Ireland. I think the rest of the UK
:32:19. > :32:22.has to be aware that they cannot be as complacent as that. They are
:32:23. > :32:25.important for this country and we must take it more seriously. We will
:32:26. > :32:28.see what happens. Let's take a look at the main
:32:29. > :32:31.political events this week. This afternoon, MPs will gather
:32:32. > :32:33.in Westminster Hall to debate whether it should be made illegal
:32:34. > :32:36.for companies to require women This comes after a petition calling
:32:37. > :32:40.for a change in the law was signed The European Union Withdrawal Bill
:32:41. > :32:46.is back in the House of Lords Peers will consider further possible
:32:47. > :32:49.amendments to the Bill, including giving parliament
:32:50. > :32:53.a so-called "meaningful vote" on the final deal that is agreed
:32:54. > :32:57.between the government and the EU. On Wednesday, Theresa May
:32:58. > :33:01.and Jeremy Corbyn will face each other for Prime Minister's
:33:02. > :33:03.Questions. Immediately after PMQs, Philip
:33:04. > :33:06.Hammond will present the Budget. He'll set out his tax and spending
:33:07. > :33:10.plans and we'll also get new economic forecasts
:33:11. > :33:13.from the This is due to be the
:33:14. > :33:17.last Spring Budget - after today, budgets will take
:33:18. > :33:22.place in autumn. And EU leaders will be in Brussels
:33:23. > :33:26.on Thursday and Friday for a meeting On their minds will be the fact that
:33:27. > :33:33.Theresa May's deadline for triggering Article 50
:33:34. > :33:35.and beginning the Brexit negotiations is now less
:33:36. > :33:40.than four weeks away. We've been joined on College Green
:33:41. > :33:42.by the Guardian's Rowena Mason, and James Forsyth of
:33:43. > :33:54.the Spectator magazine. Welcome to both of you. First of
:33:55. > :33:58.all, Rowena, tomorrow the Lords will vote on giving Parliament and
:33:59. > :34:04.meaningful vote for the end of Brexit negotiations, do you think it
:34:05. > :34:07.will make Tory MPs vote against the government? That is a possibility
:34:08. > :34:11.that the government will be worried about and perhaps that is the reason
:34:12. > :34:15.why they have explained in a little more detail today why Theresa May
:34:16. > :34:19.doesn't think this meaningful vote will take place. What they are
:34:20. > :34:24.saying is they think it could incentivise other EU countries to
:34:25. > :34:29.give the EU a bad deal and therefore scupper the UK's chances of leaving
:34:30. > :34:30.the EU. That is the argument they will be presenting tomorrow but it
:34:31. > :34:51.does still look pretty likely that the House of Lords, on a cross-party
:34:52. > :34:54.basis will vote to pass that amendment. And if it is passed there
:34:55. > :34:56.will be limited ping-pong do you think between the two houses? The
:34:57. > :34:58.government hopes there will only be one round of ping-pong. But if the
:34:59. > :35:06.government strips out the amendments then it will go back. Without Labour
:35:07. > :35:09.and the ability of the -- without Labour, the ability of the Liberal
:35:10. > :35:16.Democrats to create mischief is quite high. A meaningful vote could
:35:17. > :35:20.be one where they send back the deal and say revise it or improve it. I
:35:21. > :35:24.do not think they will be worried about the Lords voting for it. There
:35:25. > :35:29.is the second round of ping-pong in the Lords and we think Labour will
:35:30. > :35:32.probably back down. The risk for the government is that more Conservative
:35:33. > :35:38.MPs in the House of Commons joins together with Labour and the Lib
:35:39. > :35:40.Dems to force it through at that stage, and we don't really know what
:35:41. > :35:46.will happen after that, that could delay things a lot longer. Either
:35:47. > :35:50.way Article 50 will not be triggered by the time Theresa May goes to the
:35:51. > :35:54.summit in Brussels. What sort of reception will she get there, do you
:35:55. > :35:59.think? I think things are less frosty than they were but I think
:36:00. > :36:02.the European Union has stuck to its line of no negotiation until
:36:03. > :36:07.notification. That is why the rights of EU residents in the UK and UK
:36:08. > :36:13.residents in the EU cannot be sorted out because the EU says we're not
:36:14. > :36:21.doing any negotiation until you tell us you are formally starting Article
:36:22. > :36:26.50 process. Do you think that the initial theory is dying down
:36:27. > :36:30.somewhat? I think there is a degree of that. At the moment we are in
:36:31. > :36:34.this strange limbo process where Theresa May is attending the summit
:36:35. > :36:40.but she doesn't really have a great role to play. I think what she's
:36:41. > :36:43.going to be aiming on Thursday is not to look like a billy no mates
:36:44. > :36:48.and the odd one out and to have nothing to do. The EU during this
:36:49. > :36:52.period where we have not triggered Article 50 yet says absolutely there
:36:53. > :36:57.will be no start of negotiations. It is difficult for her at the moment.
:36:58. > :37:02.And she doesn't want to seem to be being cold shouldered. Meanwhile,
:37:03. > :37:07.August talk of a Brexit war chest of some substantial size? Thing that
:37:08. > :37:11.just means that Philip Hammond will not spend the money that we have not
:37:12. > :37:15.borrowed. It is a funny kind of war chest. I think what it shows is
:37:16. > :37:19.there is such uncertainty at the moment. Even though Philip Hammond
:37:20. > :37:23.has been more upbeat and optimistic about Brexit in public, I think in
:37:24. > :37:26.private he thinks there will be some kind of economic slowdown and he
:37:27. > :37:31.wants to have something in reserve if that was to happen. And that has
:37:32. > :37:43.been a lot of talk about plugging some of
:37:44. > :37:47.the funding perhaps ameliorating some of the impact of the business
:37:48. > :37:49.rate changes, and bearing in mind the Tory manifesto commits the
:37:50. > :37:52.government to not raising income tax of VAT, we are presuming there will
:37:53. > :37:55.be stealth taxes on the up? That is an idea which has been mooted quite
:37:56. > :37:59.a lot over the weekend and I wonder how some of the right-leaning press
:38:00. > :38:05.will respond to that, if it does look like there are tax rises. The
:38:06. > :38:08.fact is, that he is, the Chancellor is probably going to have to do
:38:09. > :38:13.something about social care, given the clamour among Conservative MPs
:38:14. > :38:17.as well as Labour MPs for the pressure on councils to be eased and
:38:18. > :38:22.then this issue of business rates as well will have to be dealt with.
:38:23. > :38:26.Won't it be strange for a Conservative government to increase
:38:27. > :38:30.taxes on the self-employed, for example, to try and get some more
:38:31. > :38:34.money into the coffers? I think there will be some unease on the
:38:35. > :38:37.Tory benches. I think what Hammond will portray any move like that is
:38:38. > :38:42.we have to deal with the new nature of the economy, with far more people
:38:43. > :38:48.being self-employed and also being self-employed but working for big
:38:49. > :38:53.corporations, Uber being a classic example. You have to find some way
:38:54. > :39:00.of adjusting so you don't erode the tax base through self-employment.
:39:01. > :39:05.His reputation is Spreadsheet Phil. Will he stick to that in this
:39:06. > :39:10.budget? I think he is more likely to produce a spreadsheet from a hat
:39:11. > :39:14.than a rabbit. We look forward to that excitement! Do you agree,
:39:15. > :39:19.Rowena? I do agree. One of his aims is to make this a boring budget. He
:39:20. > :39:23.does not want to make waves. He has already said he will make the autumn
:39:24. > :39:33.fiscal event the big event of the year and he will keep his powder dry
:39:34. > :39:36.for now. Thank you. Muslims in the UK are becoming
:39:37. > :39:38.increasingly victimised, that's according to the journalist,
:39:39. > :39:40.campaigner and Muslim She argues that there
:39:41. > :39:43.is an increasingly toxic narrative against Muslims,
:39:44. > :39:46.caused in part by the rise of right wing nationalism across Europe,
:39:47. > :39:50.here's her soapbox. Europe's new far
:39:51. > :39:55.right is on the rise. to Denmark, Holland,
:39:56. > :40:04.France, Germany, there has been a rapid growth
:40:05. > :40:06.of right-wing parties over As a white woman from
:40:07. > :40:11.a working-class background, that makes me a target
:40:12. > :40:14.for their vote. I'm a Muslim, one of nearly
:40:15. > :40:20.three million in the UK, and that Here at the former Byker Grove
:40:21. > :40:28.studios, where Ant and Dec rose to fame in Newcastle,
:40:29. > :40:32.windows have been smashed and a pig's head was dropped
:40:33. > :40:36.just here, only after it emerged that the building was going to be
:40:37. > :40:43.transformed into an Islamic Academy. Hate manifests itself
:40:44. > :40:46.in many different ways. Women are reported as having
:40:47. > :40:50.their hijabs pulled off. One pregnant woman was kicked
:40:51. > :40:52.in the stomach And another veiled woman
:40:53. > :40:58.who was wearing Islamic dress was stabbed many times at the university
:40:59. > :41:12.campus where she was studying. There are fears we
:41:13. > :41:14.are standing at the head of the same street our Jewish
:41:15. > :41:19.cousins were dragged down in the 1930s, and we all know
:41:20. > :41:24.where that ended. The far right are using the weapons
:41:25. > :41:28.of fear, nostalgia and resentment against mainstream
:41:29. > :41:34.politics to galvanise voters. This in turn is fuelling anxiety
:41:35. > :41:40.and unfounded fears of terrorism, which in turn is fuelling demands
:41:41. > :41:55.for tougher immigration policies. It's a simple enough message
:41:56. > :41:58.and one that worked so well for Donald Trump in America,
:41:59. > :42:01.but when people fear that they are not being listened to, they will
:42:02. > :42:04.head to the lure of the populists, who will trade
:42:05. > :42:06.on their fears instead. Even if the far right doesn't win,
:42:07. > :42:08.they've already changed the political landscape in Europe,
:42:09. > :42:13.forcing mainstream parties to adopt These extreme views are now
:42:14. > :42:23.being perceived as normal. And Yvonne Ridley is here,
:42:24. > :42:40.and we're also joined by You talked about the fact that some
:42:41. > :42:44.of the far right's policies and rhetoric is now being adopted by
:42:45. > :42:49.mainstream parties. What evidence is there that policies are being passed
:42:50. > :42:57.by mainstream parties which are anti-Muslim? Just recently we had in
:42:58. > :43:07.Austria our European government minister there saying he wanted to
:43:08. > :43:16.ban the macabre. The reality is that the niqab was warned by a few
:43:17. > :43:20.thousand women in Austria. The headlines were that it was right
:43:21. > :43:27.across Europe. There is a big story at the moment brewing in Germany in
:43:28. > :43:32.one particular school where Muslim pupils have been praying and the
:43:33. > :43:36.school is having a difficult time with the large congregations. Peter
:43:37. > :43:41.Whittle, Yvonne Ridley said in her film that the political rhetoric
:43:42. > :43:47.from some far right parties and other politicians has fuelled hate.
:43:48. > :43:51.Nigel Farage said Germany's open-door policy to a million
:43:52. > :43:54.migrants from fought on Syria opened the doors to Isis and extremism. Do
:43:55. > :43:59.you think that is the sort of rhetoric that fuels the hate it
:44:00. > :44:04.Yvonne Ridley is talk about? First of all we're not far right. I did
:44:05. > :44:10.say other politics. I think this has been borne out by recent events the
:44:11. > :44:14.difference is that he was to radical Islamist, extremists who want to do
:44:15. > :44:22.us harm. He was therefore not opening out to a general attack on
:44:23. > :44:26.Muslims. Of course he wasn't doing that. To accept there a difference
:44:27. > :44:30.about talking about Isis and extremism and ordinary Muslim
:44:31. > :44:38.families? I think sometimes politicians from all parties can be
:44:39. > :44:42.extremely vocal about Muslims in a negative way and you get cases that
:44:43. > :44:47.I talked about where a pregnant woman in Milton Keynes was kicked in
:44:48. > :44:52.the stomach. But that is an anecdotal incident. It definitely
:44:53. > :44:57.happened. She lost her babies. Another goal was stabbed to death.
:44:58. > :45:00.These happens because politicians say things and they trigger idiots
:45:01. > :45:04.out there who are listening to them. I know you can't legislate for
:45:05. > :45:14.idiots, but you know with the rhetoric, if it can just be toned
:45:15. > :45:18.down and said in a thoughtful less hateful way.
:45:19. > :45:27.What we have seen is a narrative of a rise in hate crimes, which if you
:45:28. > :45:32.look at the figures does look like that on paper, the problem is the
:45:33. > :45:39.way they're reported is almost unique in the sense that no evidence
:45:40. > :45:42.is required. It relies on the perceived or the alleged victim and
:45:43. > :45:47.what they think happen or anybody else. Which means that someone
:45:48. > :45:52.watching this programme could report us, this is a hate crime f they
:45:53. > :45:56.thought it was. Are you denying there wasn't a spike in hate crime
:45:57. > :46:01.after the Brexit vote. There was a narrative that people were
:46:02. > :46:07.determined to make fit their theory. The police claim the figures are
:46:08. > :46:14.borne out. If you look at the figures of hate crime and that is
:46:15. > :46:18.all hate crime, the amount that amount to a prosecution is something
:46:19. > :46:22.like 35%. In other words, a fraction of the figures. The problem is as
:46:23. > :46:25.soon as you report it, it immediately becomes a hate crime
:46:26. > :46:33.statistic and it is reported by the press. That is pretty much unique,
:46:34. > :46:43.you don't have any other crime with that situation. Looking back when
:46:44. > :46:48.Nigel Farage unveiled that vile poster of Syrian refugees. They were
:46:49. > :46:53.not all refugees, many were economic migrants and he was talking about
:46:54. > :47:03.Europe, a poster was around Europe. Don't you regret that? No? No the,
:47:04. > :47:07.the whole narrative is somehow Brexit unleashed this hate. Some
:47:08. > :47:14.people would like everybody who voted Brexit to be made you know...
:47:15. > :47:21.Culpable of a hate crime. This is ridiculous and I think as well that
:47:22. > :47:31.it does a rude service to people who are the least racist in the world.
:47:32. > :47:35.Now Margot James, one study looking at terrorist-related incidents had
:47:36. > :47:42.looked at data from the national police chiefs council that said the
:47:43. > :47:47.number of far right refer rals has increased. Do you think the threat
:47:48. > :47:53.of far right extremism has been ignored? That might have been the
:47:54. > :47:57.case a few years ago, but the Government have caught up with the
:47:58. > :48:03.far right threat and taken steps to deal with it. I represent a Black
:48:04. > :48:09.Country constituency and almost every year we have our way of life
:48:10. > :48:14.totally abused by far right people who come and march in the centre of
:48:15. > :48:18.Dudley. All the shops have to close. People's well being is threatened
:48:19. > :48:22.and in particular the Muslim population. So it is right that the
:48:23. > :48:32.Government have cracked down on it and it is necessary and I agree with
:48:33. > :48:37.Yvonne there has been a rise in hate crime and it should be dealt. There
:48:38. > :48:41.has been a rise in reporting. I represent a constituency and part of
:48:42. > :48:46.a wider area I can see it and I have individual reports and I also would
:48:47. > :48:50.argue with the point with you based on the fact that the hate crime that
:48:51. > :48:55.goes unreported. I have people come to me to talk about instances and
:48:56. > :49:04.they want don't to go to police. I don't agree with your argument. Can
:49:05. > :49:11.I comment. In terms of spike in hate crime, much was directed at eastern
:49:12. > :49:15.Europeans, rather than Muslims, do you accept all politicians have a
:49:16. > :49:24.role to play in the language they use, how much do you think the focus
:49:25. > :49:30.on Islamic extremism has fed into a fear if you like of the Muslim
:49:31. > :49:37.community? It is absolutely every politician's responsibility. If you
:49:38. > :49:41.look at the history of prejudice it was Irish people and Jewish people
:49:42. > :49:48.and now the Muslim community is receiving the threat. I do not
:49:49. > :49:55.believe that senor people in Ukip are interested in a serious
:49:56. > :50:01.discussion about immigration. What do you say to that? It is
:50:02. > :50:08.outrageous. One of the biggest rises in hate crime has been anti-Semitism
:50:09. > :50:13.against Jewish teemest people. People -- people. People are
:50:14. > :50:23.reporting them and the police have to take them at their word, so that
:50:24. > :50:28.basely base economy it comes to that. It won't have any party linked
:50:29. > :50:34.with the rise in hate crime. It is outrageous. Can I put to you, you
:50:35. > :50:38.have said, Yvonne, this has been fumed by irrational fears over
:50:39. > :50:46.terrorism, but you must accept the attacks, some of the high profile
:50:47. > :50:51.attacks like Woolwich and 7/7 have been driven by Islamist ideology.
:50:52. > :51:01.Yes can I fear some of fear. Is it irrational? Having lived in London
:51:02. > :51:10.for 20 odd years, and seen the and experienced the... Irish troubles
:51:11. > :51:15.and the Irish situation. The fears towards Muslims is irrational, you
:51:16. > :51:22.know we went in this country through more than 30 years of so-called
:51:23. > :51:29.Irish troubles. You can understand why people feel worried? Yes,
:51:30. > :51:33.because you look at the news stands and the headlines and the words from
:51:34. > :51:40.the politicians. They whip up fear... Yvonne this is an altern
:51:41. > :51:46.Nate reality, you're in. You didn't say that yes those attacks were down
:51:47. > :51:56.to a form of Islamist ideology, you didn't accept that. That speaks
:51:57. > :52:04.volumes. Lee Rigby was killed near where I live. The 7/7 was an
:52:05. > :52:11.Islamist ideology. I'm not in denial and I would refute what you say, but
:52:12. > :52:16.we had more than 30 years of Irish terrorism and dealt with it in a
:52:17. > :52:18.calm way, not th hysteria that you bring to it. Thank you both very
:52:19. > :52:21.much. Let's take a look now
:52:22. > :52:23.at the latest developments Over the weekend, President Trump
:52:24. > :52:28.made allegations that his predecessor Barack Obama had ordered
:52:29. > :52:31.a wiretap to be carried out On Saturday morning Donald Trump
:52:32. > :52:34.tweeted: "Terrible! Just found out that Obama
:52:35. > :52:37.had my "wires tapped" in Trump Tower He then compared it to Watergate,
:52:38. > :52:48.writing "How low has President Obama gone to tap my phones
:52:49. > :52:50.during the very sacred Obama's spokesman Kevin Lewis
:52:51. > :53:02.strongly refuted the allegations, tweeting "Neither @barackobama nor
:53:03. > :53:04.any WH official under Obama has ever ordered
:53:05. > :53:06.surveillance on any US Citizen. Any suggestion is
:53:07. > :53:28.unequivocally false." We've been joined by
:53:29. > :53:30.Charles Kupchan, who's a professor of international affairs
:53:31. > :53:32.at Georgetown University in Washington and who's just arrived
:53:33. > :53:35.in the UK to deliver a talk in parliament on the
:53:36. > :53:46.Trump presidency. As wove explained, Donald Trump said
:53:47. > :53:51.his phone was hacked, something President Obama has denied. Why
:53:52. > :53:57.would he tweet such a thing if he didn't have proof? Trump seems to be
:53:58. > :54:02.someone who doesn't act according to script. He may wake up in the
:54:03. > :54:11.morning and be in a bad mood and he pops off with these tweets that in
:54:12. > :54:15.many cased -- cases are not based on fact and create some media spin that
:54:16. > :54:19.takes the conversation away from where he doesn't want it to be,
:54:20. > :54:25.which is on Russia. That seems to be the only explanation. In your mind,
:54:26. > :54:28.it is a diversion tactic, which is what it looks like, because he has
:54:29. > :54:35.not got the evidence to back up his claims. I think it is a combination
:54:36. > :54:39.of diversion as a strategy, but also using things that are not based in
:54:40. > :54:45.fact to keep everyone off balance and turn the system upside down, so
:54:46. > :54:49.we don't know what is true and what is not and he seems to be president
:54:50. > :54:53.who revels that in kind of uncertainty. It is a chaos theory,
:54:54. > :55:00.while everyone is running around trying to prove or disprove his
:55:01. > :55:03.claims, it takes up people's time. It chaos theory that wedded to his
:55:04. > :55:08.political brand and he has been elected by people who think the
:55:09. > :55:10.system doesn't work for them. He is challenging the establishment and
:55:11. > :55:20.the intelligence communities and the press to say, hey, I represent you
:55:21. > :55:25.disaffected people. Does it Is it that thought out to say I will
:55:26. > :55:29.challenge the establishment? I don't think it will work, if you look at
:55:30. > :55:35.the poll numbers, they're the low nest history for a new president and
:55:36. > :55:39.the average working American doesn't want disruption, he or she wants
:55:40. > :55:43.more income and Trump needs to deliver on that and he has not given
:55:44. > :55:50.us any detail. But he says he will deliver on that promise that he will
:55:51. > :55:56.make jobs and bring back Josh -- jobs to the rust belt states. Don't
:55:57. > :55:59.the people like that he is challenging the establishment
:56:00. > :56:06.authority? There is a core Trump base that is enjoying this. Whether
:56:07. > :56:12.that enjoyment stays there, I am doubtful, because at the end of the
:56:13. > :56:19.day people will get tired of this and want a sense of normalcy. Is
:56:20. > :56:24.this a water shed moment? If there is no evidence, if we have had the
:56:25. > :56:29.FBI reject it, it is a moment at which there is a turning point for
:56:30. > :56:33.what Donald Trump does on social media. I don't think we are there. I
:56:34. > :56:38.I think we need something that sticks. My own sense is that as we
:56:39. > :56:41.investigate what is going on in the Russia file, there is more to be
:56:42. > :56:46.had. That story has not come to an end. Whether there is information
:56:47. > :56:49.there that could fundamentally damage Trump, compromise the
:56:50. > :56:54.presidency, we don't know. But I think that right now is his most
:56:55. > :57:01.vulnerable flank. What do you think it is doing to America's standing in
:57:02. > :57:05.the world? Well it is damaging, spats between the president and the
:57:06. > :57:10.Security Services in the United States are worrying for all of
:57:11. > :57:15.NATO's members. And we just have to hope that the situation improves. He
:57:16. > :57:23.said he doesn't like the mainstream media, it is a way of challenging
:57:24. > :57:27.the media using social media? It gets people's attention. After he
:57:28. > :57:33.tweeted the claims, he tweeted something about The Apprentice.
:57:34. > :57:38.Imagine discovering a Water gate level scandal and then forgetting I.
:57:39. > :57:43.But this is causing damage to American and causing uncertainty.
:57:44. > :57:49.The real story is the Russian link. There is a stand off between the
:57:50. > :57:54.media and the White House, ow sustainable is that conflict? It is
:57:55. > :57:59.going to be bloody, because the New York Times and others are out for
:58:00. > :58:05.him. And banned. Banned from coming to a briefing. This is still heating
:58:06. > :58:09.up. I think the one silver lining is that he has appointed people around
:58:10. > :58:14.him that are adults. The Secretary of State, the Secretary of defence.
:58:15. > :58:19.We have a serious national security advisor. If he listens to them and
:58:20. > :58:21.that is a big if, he could push them in the right direction. But we don't
:58:22. > :58:23.know. Thank you. There's just time before we go
:58:24. > :58:27.to find out the answer to our quiz. The question was what job
:58:28. > :58:46.is Ed Balls considering next? He is quite good on the piano. He
:58:47. > :58:52.said never say never about a return to Westminster. I think there is a
:58:53. > :58:59.job there. That is the right answer. From all of here today good bye.
:59:00. > :59:01.Were back tomorrow at 1 o'clock.