:00:37. > :00:45.Theresa May and Nicola Sturgeon trade blows over a new independence
:00:46. > :00:50.referendum for Scotland - which of them will come out on top?
:00:51. > :00:57.Hold the front page - from high-vis to hack,
:00:58. > :01:01.George Osborne is the new editor of the London Evening Standard.
:01:02. > :01:07.And breaking up's not always easy, so what can
:01:08. > :01:12.Czechoslovakia's Velvet Divorce teach us about Brexit?
:01:13. > :01:15.All that in the next hour and with us for the first
:01:16. > :01:18.half of the programme - Channel Four wanted her
:01:19. > :01:21.for the Great British Bakeoff, but they had to settle for that
:01:22. > :01:26.So we have journalist and former press secretary to Paddy Ashdown -
:01:27. > :01:29.who I think still counts herself as a Liberal Democrat -
:01:30. > :01:35.First this morning, in the last hour the BBC has learned
:01:36. > :01:38.that former Chancellor, George Osborne, is to be the editor
:01:39. > :01:47.He is going to combine the job with the reigning as an MP, we are told.
:01:48. > :01:49.He's got lots of other interests as well.
:01:50. > :01:52.The man who broke the news is the BBC's media editor,
:01:53. > :02:01.Why is he doing this? I think he is doing this because it's a clear
:02:02. > :02:04.indication that he doesn't think that staying within Parliament and
:02:05. > :02:09.staying part of Theresa May's team is going to be a fruitful few years
:02:10. > :02:14.of his life. He's still very much in his prime, 45 years old. The way he
:02:15. > :02:18.was dismissed from cabinet in a rather brutal fashion last summer,
:02:19. > :02:24.where Theresa May briefed the line out saying if you wanted to lead the
:02:25. > :02:29.Tory party he needs to better understand it from the backbenches,
:02:30. > :02:33.I think it left him feeling a bit left out. How on earth he reconciles
:02:34. > :02:41.this with the other jobs he's got, one being a full-time MP and another
:02:42. > :02:47.with four days a rock with -- four days a month with Black Rock where
:02:48. > :02:51.he gets paid ?650,000 a year which most people take a lifetime to
:02:52. > :03:00.earn... There will also be a boundary change... Hold on, let's
:03:01. > :03:05.undertake some of this bit by bit. In your view, is he aware of just
:03:06. > :03:10.how gruelling the job of being a hands-on editor of the Standard is.
:03:11. > :03:13.You have to be at your desk by six aim to me you've got several edits
:03:14. > :03:16.and is to get away and by mid-afternoon when you do that
:03:17. > :03:21.you've then got to get all the feature pages away for the next day.
:03:22. > :03:26.It is a 12, sometimes 15 hour day. How can you do that and be an MP?
:03:27. > :03:33.Andrew, you be an MP? Andrew, you been an editor, you were editor of
:03:34. > :03:37.the Sunday Times and I was editor of the Independent. It is an
:03:38. > :03:43.extraordinarily ruling job, I sometimes did 100 hours a week. It
:03:44. > :03:48.is extraordinarily gruelling. I would sometimes be at the office at
:03:49. > :03:54.five in the morning. The Standard has come down to one edition so he
:03:55. > :03:58.thinks he might be free by the afternoon but it doesn't work like
:03:59. > :04:01.that, you've got to go to meetings and shares starve. It's not just
:04:02. > :04:06.about seeing off the pages, it's about managing a team, dealing with
:04:07. > :04:12.different politicians and commercial strategy. He is paid a tonne of
:04:13. > :04:16.money by Black Rock, major financial institution, where does that leave
:04:17. > :04:20.the city pages of the Evening Standard? They are compromised? It
:04:21. > :04:26.will be very interesting to see how George Osborne covers Black Rock and
:04:27. > :04:30.the pages of the Standard as well. His former senior adviser is one of
:04:31. > :04:33.the people who helped recruit him there. He has huge connections in
:04:34. > :04:39.the world of asset management and also huge connections in the world
:04:40. > :04:41.of Conservative politics. What I'm going to be looking closely at how
:04:42. > :04:45.he covers the Conservative Party. The worst thing that could happen
:04:46. > :04:49.for the Evening Standard and four George Osborne would be for him to
:04:50. > :04:52.come across as a Tory lackey. For what it's worth I don't think he
:04:53. > :04:55.will. I think he thinks that vengeance is a dish best served
:04:56. > :04:59.through the pages of a very powerful newspaper and I think this is
:05:00. > :05:07.something of a coup for the Standard. But how does he reconciles
:05:08. > :05:10.it with his other jobs, we will see. It's a coup for someone who is a
:05:11. > :05:16.journalist never minded politician! I'm waiting for an application to be
:05:17. > :05:23.a brain surgeon! You used to work for them, what is in this for the
:05:24. > :05:28.Ledvedevs, who own the Evening Standard? They get a high profile
:05:29. > :05:32.and high calibre editor. You don't know he's high calibre: he has never
:05:33. > :05:39.been an editor! It is an interesting and bold appointment. The Standard
:05:40. > :05:45.does not have a cover price so it is very reliant on print media
:05:46. > :05:49.advertising. That is a market that is disappearing to the tune of about
:05:50. > :05:55.20%. What George Osborne is going to have to do is not just the editorial
:05:56. > :05:58.bid but also the commercial bid, transforming that business from
:05:59. > :06:02.being just a journalistic business to one that deals with events,
:06:03. > :06:06.ticketing, marketing, data, all that kind of stuff that newspaper
:06:07. > :06:11.companies now have to do and that is what the Ledvedevs will want him to
:06:12. > :06:15.do. All right. Congratulations on breaking the story. It has surprised
:06:16. > :06:21.and increased my propensity to be surprised, that is for sure. We are
:06:22. > :06:28.joined now from his constituency from the Labour MP John Mann. What
:06:29. > :06:31.is your reaction to his appointment as the editor of the Evening
:06:32. > :06:36.Standard? Well, I would be saying good luck to him, off you go, just
:06:37. > :06:40.like my colleague Tristram Hunt going off to be the director of the
:06:41. > :06:44.Victoria and Albert easy for some reason. But he seems to want to stay
:06:45. > :06:47.on and collect his parliamentary salary as well! It seems to me he is
:06:48. > :06:53.taking the Mickey out of the taxpayer and the general public. It
:06:54. > :06:58.would be unprecedented, we can't find a previous example of this, him
:06:59. > :07:02.remaining a member of Parliament and of course as we were saying he has
:07:03. > :07:06.got several interests as well, you don't think he can do that and be a
:07:07. > :07:11.hands-on editor of the Evening Standard? You don't think he can do
:07:12. > :07:14.both? He won't be taking anyone's share of work in parliament coming
:07:15. > :07:19.won't be attending any committees, he won't be attending the sessions
:07:20. > :07:23.inside parliament. He will turn up to the occasional vote, having not
:07:24. > :07:28.heard the debate. And I think that is fundamentally wrong. It also
:07:29. > :07:31.devalues our democracy because his constituents are not getting value
:07:32. > :07:35.for money out of it. We all know he's going to go at the next
:07:36. > :07:39.election because he has been booted out by Theresa May ignominiously and
:07:40. > :07:44.the boundary commission abolishes his seat! He ought to go now, and
:07:45. > :07:48.good luck to him if he goes. Tristram Hunt did the honourable
:07:49. > :07:52.thing, he got a new job and he didn't pretend he could do a second
:07:53. > :07:56.job as well. In George Osborne's case, this is a third job back row
:07:57. > :08:01.wrecks totally an acceptable for him to still be standing. Why do you
:08:02. > :08:06.think he's going to go at the next election? He may see himself and
:08:07. > :08:10.many close to him do, that he is the king of the water and now the king
:08:11. > :08:14.of the editor's seat in the Standard. If the whole Brexit
:08:15. > :08:19.business goes wrong, he could see himself placed for a comeback in the
:08:20. > :08:23.Tory party and the Standard may well provide him with a springboard to do
:08:24. > :08:27.that. George told us it was all going to be disaster by now and he
:08:28. > :08:33.was wrong on that. So his economic predictions have never proved to be
:08:34. > :08:40.very reliable. But what's he going to be doing as an MP? I've just done
:08:41. > :08:44.three surgeries and I've got another two to do today in my constituency.
:08:45. > :08:49.People come to me with issues they can only go to an MP on. To give you
:08:50. > :08:53.an example, the very last person I saw 20 minutes ago is the mother of
:08:54. > :09:01.a British soldier murdered by the IRA in 1979 and she is angry that
:09:02. > :09:05.there is no national memorial for those that were killed in Northern
:09:06. > :09:09.Ireland. The only person she can go to his/her MP. Will she get any joy
:09:10. > :09:15.out of me raising the issue? I've no idea. I will do so do the best of my
:09:16. > :09:20.ability. If she's got nowhere else to go, George Osborne is not going
:09:21. > :09:25.to be doing that kind of work, and it devalues Parliament by allowing
:09:26. > :09:29.MPs to carry on in this way and Pretend, because that's what he's
:09:30. > :09:33.doing, that he is being an MP, when he's not. He's doing two other jobs
:09:34. > :09:36.and he shouldn't be an MP as well. OK, thank you for that.
:09:37. > :09:48.We are joined in the studio by George, political commentator. Is
:09:49. > :09:52.this a stepping stone to a new dimension in his political career?
:09:53. > :09:56.Or is it a stepping stone out of politics and into other things? I
:09:57. > :10:00.think it's a stepping stone out of politics, Andrew. Because I think
:10:01. > :10:05.George Osborne didn't stand down at the same time as his friend David
:10:06. > :10:10.Cameron did because he still thought he might have a route back into the
:10:11. > :10:14.top of politics. Especially wanting to get his own back on Theresa May
:10:15. > :10:19.four way that she got rid of him. But I think he has possibly realised
:10:20. > :10:23.that's not going to happen. This is the sort of job that, if it comes
:10:24. > :10:30.up, it's very difficult for someone who always wanted to be a
:10:31. > :10:34.journalist, to refuse. The EU by that? Because all the information I
:10:35. > :10:40.have suggests that George Osborne has been biding his time? -- do you
:10:41. > :10:44.buy that? He thinks it will be a disaster, it will end in tears and
:10:45. > :10:47.he will be vindicated. I think if he does want this to be a way back into
:10:48. > :10:51.the very top politics, it would be the very top I imagine that he would
:10:52. > :10:55.be interested in, I think he's making some serious miss calculation
:10:56. > :11:00.is. For example, a few days a month on an incredibly inflated salary at
:11:01. > :11:03.a financial institution doesn't go down well with the public and I
:11:04. > :11:06.think the idea of running a newspaper for the capital city when
:11:07. > :11:15.you are simultaneously, on the same day it was announced, today, that he
:11:16. > :11:18.had the job at the Standard, he was one of the most controversial voices
:11:19. > :11:27.lobbying on this issue of school funding. He cannot do both!
:11:28. > :11:31.Certainly in terms of the logistics, if he wants to be a hands-on editor
:11:32. > :11:35.it is very hard is the how he can be an MP, having had first-hand
:11:36. > :11:42.experience of what is involved in being an editor. But what is in it
:11:43. > :11:48.for the Ledvedevs? What is in it for the Russian oligarchs that owned
:11:49. > :11:56.this newspaper? As they said, it is a coup for the Standard, to have
:11:57. > :12:01.someone that high-calibre as the front man for the newspaper. Is he
:12:02. > :12:04.going to be Dave facto and editor in chief above the fray where someone
:12:05. > :12:09.else does all the hard work? That's what we're going to have to seek.
:12:10. > :12:13.Because there are two ways of doing this, you can either be the front
:12:14. > :12:17.person, the person who networks for the Evening Standard, presents the
:12:18. > :12:23.Evening Standard on the grand stage, or you can be someone who gets
:12:24. > :12:28.involved with the inky staff. He wanted to be a journalist when you
:12:29. > :12:33.was a young man. He wasn't back, they didn't hire him! Coming in as
:12:34. > :12:41.editor! Was he born with a silver pen in his mouth? As you possibly
:12:42. > :12:44.know, he is a very entertaining and engaging person in private.
:12:45. > :12:53.Absolutely. But the Evening Standard is the paper of Europe's financial
:12:54. > :12:59.capital. He is being paid, what is it, ?650,000 a year by one of the
:13:00. > :13:03.major financial institutions. Where does that leave the Standard's city
:13:04. > :13:12.pages? I think he will have to make a choice. If he enjoys being editor
:13:13. > :13:16.of the Standard then being an adviser to Black Rock and an MP will
:13:17. > :13:24.have to go. Good the Ledvedevs afford to match his salary... I
:13:25. > :13:30.don't think he needs that money, didn't think anyone does. Well, he
:13:31. > :13:35.has taken it! Yes, but for how long. I don't think he regards Black Rock
:13:36. > :13:39.is a long-term solution. Maybe he fancied being there of London. The
:13:40. > :13:42.question of whether you get inky fingers or you are celebrity editor,
:13:43. > :13:46.I think it is important for the standard to have that kind of
:13:47. > :13:51.figurehead. The previous editor was very good because she managed to do
:13:52. > :13:56.both. But she was a proper journalist. She was a proper
:13:57. > :13:59.journalist and she editorially positioned the Standard very well
:14:00. > :14:06.but she was also on the party pages making sure the Standard was hosting
:14:07. > :14:09.all the big debates and you don't have to be a non-journalist to
:14:10. > :14:15.deliver that for the Standard, I think it is a bit of an insult to
:14:16. > :14:26.the profession. This is a Labour city. How would you deal with the
:14:27. > :14:30.Standard? This is it has always had that problem because it is a
:14:31. > :14:35.slightly conservative leaning newspaper. It had me completely by
:14:36. > :14:39.surprise but game on! Me to! Thank you.
:14:40. > :14:45.The war of words between the Prime Minister, Theresa May,
:14:46. > :14:47.and Scotland's First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, showed
:14:48. > :14:49.no sign of abating today as both leaders
:14:50. > :14:50.address their party's conferences this weekend.
:14:51. > :14:53.The pair started trading blows after Ms Sturgeon called on Monday
:14:54. > :14:55.for a second referendum on independence for Scotland to be
:14:56. > :14:58.held between Autumn 2018 and Spring 2019 in light of the Brexit vote.
:14:59. > :15:01.Ms Sturgeon was first to launch an attack, saying she had
:15:02. > :15:05.been "met with a brick wall of intransigence" from Westminster.
:15:06. > :15:07.But Theresa May was quick to retaliate, accusing the SNP
:15:08. > :15:09.of "tunnel vision" and "playing politics with the future
:15:10. > :15:13.After suggestions that the Prime Minister could block the referendum
:15:14. > :15:15.until after the 2021 Holyrood, the First Minister shot back
:15:16. > :15:18.on twitter, "I was elected as FM on a clear manifesto
:15:19. > :15:21.The PM is not yet elected by anyone."
:15:22. > :15:24.That didn't seem to faze Mrs May, who used an interview yesterday
:15:25. > :15:27.to repeat her view that "now is not the time" for a referendum, saying,
:15:28. > :15:32."It would be unfair to Scotland," to hold one before Brexit
:15:33. > :15:38.But Ms Sturgeon described the Prime Minister's attitude
:15:39. > :15:40.as a "democratic outrage" and insisted that it will be
:15:41. > :15:48.We're joined now from the SNP Spring Conference in Aberdeen
:15:49. > :15:56.by the party's deputy leader, Angus Robertson.
:15:57. > :16:04.The First Minister wants a referendum before the spring of
:16:05. > :16:09.2019, when the whole Article 50 process should end, the Prime
:16:10. > :16:15.Minister says no, not one until at least after the Brexit process is
:16:16. > :16:20.done and dusted. What happens next? Well I think it is important to
:16:21. > :16:24.unpick what that means, because the Prime Minister and this is where it
:16:25. > :16:27.gets confusing, she says there shouldn't be a referendum in
:16:28. > :16:31.Scotland now. Now, the time is not right. I agree with her and the
:16:32. > :16:36.Scottish Government is not proposing to hold a referendum now, because
:16:37. > :16:39.the negotiations are about to start. The Scottish Government has said
:16:40. > :16:44.that it makes sense for people in Scotland to know the outcome of the
:16:45. > :16:50.Brexit negotiations. To that extent there is not a disagreement. What
:16:51. > :16:55.confuses me is the British wants to create the impression that it is OK
:16:56. > :16:59.for Parliaments, the British and the European Parliaments and other
:17:00. > :17:03.European governments to agree to deal on Brexit, but people in
:17:04. > :17:10.Scotland will be denied that choice. What is happening is that the Tories
:17:11. > :17:14.are trying to suggest that they're intransigent, but not saying they're
:17:15. > :17:18.ruling o' ought referendum. -- ruling out a referendum. So it is
:17:19. > :17:22.important to understand the time scales, the UK Government should be
:17:23. > :17:27.able to proceed with negotiations. There is a mandate in England and
:17:28. > :17:31.Wales for Brexit. I #3w But it would be unfair to deny the people in
:17:32. > :17:38.Scotland a choice. There is supposed to be six months lchs s... I haven't
:17:39. > :17:43.got much time. There has been some stories o' going on in London. I
:17:44. > :17:48.will ask your reaction. Will I be offered a job editing the daily
:17:49. > :17:54.politics. Maybe, you should see the crew we have at the moment.
:17:55. > :17:56.Honestly. I still pay my membership to the national union of
:17:57. > :18:00.journalists. I don't think George Osborne has ever done that. You
:18:01. > :18:05.could be right. You or Nicola Sturgeon are assuming we will know
:18:06. > :18:11.the nature of the Brexit deal by the autumn of 2018, but you know the way
:18:12. > :18:14.Europe works, this things could go down to the wire and if we don't
:18:15. > :18:21.know the nature of the Brexit deal until the very last minute, when
:18:22. > :18:25.would you then have the referendum? That can't happen. It simply can't
:18:26. > :18:31.happen for the reason there needs to be approval in the UK and in the EU
:18:32. > :18:35.and among the member states. You're right, often things overrun in a
:18:36. > :18:41.European context. But there must be a period, whether it is negotiated
:18:42. > :18:46.within the two years, or whether there is some sort of extension, one
:18:47. > :18:50.way or the other, there has to be a period for Parliaments to agree the
:18:51. > :18:55.deal and the European institutions to agree the deal and it is a simple
:18:56. > :18:59.basic democratic point if there is a period for decision-making, then not
:19:00. > :19:02.only should Parliaments in Britain and Europe be able to decide on our
:19:03. > :19:08.future, but voters in Scotland should be able to decide too and we
:19:09. > :19:11.are democrats and think the First Minister was elected with a mandate,
:19:12. > :19:15.something the Prime Minister does not have on this, that there should
:19:16. > :19:18.be a referendum with a change of circumstances like Scotland being
:19:19. > :19:24.taken out of the EU against our will. That is what should happen.
:19:25. > :19:27.You are a democrat and you will know that the ability to call a
:19:28. > :19:34.referendum is a reserved power for Westminster. If Westminster does not
:19:35. > :19:39.approve that within the time scale you want, would you consider calling
:19:40. > :19:43.an advisory referendum in Scotland? Well, I think the important thing to
:19:44. > :19:47.bear in mind is that this is going to be decided on in the Scottish
:19:48. > :19:51.Parliament next week. I think people need to understand how, I'm not sure
:19:52. > :19:54.all of your viewers will understand there will be a vote in the Scottish
:19:55. > :19:59.Parliament next week as to whether there should be an independence
:20:00. > :20:05.referendum. I think some people don't understand how incendiary it
:20:06. > :20:07.would be for a UK government to overrule Scotland's democratically
:20:08. > :20:12.elected Parliament and its Government that has Hamman Tait --
:20:13. > :20:16.that has a mandate on this and the Prime Minister said now is not the
:20:17. > :20:23.time for a referendum. We agree. What is the answer to my question,
:20:24. > :20:32.will you call an advisory referendum? No, that is not my plan,
:20:33. > :20:35.our plan is to make sure the UK Government lives up to its
:20:36. > :20:42.responsibility that if we are in a union 245 that is a partnership of
:20:43. > :20:45.equals, they have to respect Scotland's Parliament and if they
:20:46. > :20:49.vote for a referendum and the Prime Minister wants to continue by
:20:50. > :20:55.declaiming the UK is based on respect, she must respect that
:20:56. > :21:00.decision. If not, the claims are shown to be empty. There was a time
:21:01. > :21:04.when you and Nicola Sturgeon talked about there has to be the clear will
:21:05. > :21:09.of Scottish people to have a second referendum. Now you had a second
:21:10. > :21:12.referendum in your man ifesto on the the conditions you said, there will
:21:13. > :21:16.probably be a majority in the Scottish Parliament. But there is no
:21:17. > :21:22.evidence that it is the clear will of the Scottish people to have a
:21:23. > :21:26.second referendum. Hold on a second. You're just stressing and quite
:21:27. > :21:30.rightly that the Scottish Government was elected with a manifesto
:21:31. > :21:34.commitment. I know UK governments think they can break these things,
:21:35. > :21:38.but in Scotland it matters and our government was elected with more
:21:39. > :21:41.votes than the Labour Party and the Conservative Party combined in
:21:42. > :21:45.Scotland and you're suggesting that if Scotland's votes there should be
:21:46. > :21:50.a referendum, that a UK Government can ignore that. I'm not suggesting
:21:51. > :21:53.that, I'm asking you a question, I'm asking a question and you're tap
:21:54. > :22:02.dancing around it. If you would let me finish. I would like you to
:22:03. > :22:07.answer the question. This is right at the heart of matter, people in
:22:08. > :22:10.Westminster need to understand if they disregard Scotland's
:22:11. > :22:13.Parliament, a majority voting in favour of Scotland having a
:22:14. > :22:18.referendum, and they are then going to go on to say that Scotland not
:22:19. > :22:23.only cannot have a referendum now, but it must take even more years and
:22:24. > :22:28.Scotland will have left the EU by then, the consequences for the
:22:29. > :22:33.United Kingdom is there will not be a United Kingdom. Because the
:22:34. > :22:42.fiction of respect will have exposed as being empty. Let me try again. I
:22:43. > :22:47.used to talk to SNP politicians and activists and they used to say,
:22:48. > :22:52.look, we need clear evidence in the opinion poms that Scotland -- polls
:22:53. > :23:01.that Scotland wants another referendum. A number of of polls,
:23:02. > :23:05.50% there there should not be a referendum. There is not a clear
:23:06. > :23:13.will of the Scottish people as yet to have a second referendum. I'm
:23:14. > :23:18.terribly sorry, Andrew, you have only read Ute from part of SNP
:23:19. > :23:24.manifesto and should have. I was reading from John Curtice. If in is
:23:25. > :23:32.a material change in circumstances and Scotland faces being taken out
:23:33. > :23:36.of the EU against its will I'm not arguing that. I'm not talking about
:23:37. > :23:40.opinion polls when the Scottish people had a vote, they voted for an
:23:41. > :23:46.SNP Government on the basis of that manifesto. Not opinion polls. I'm
:23:47. > :23:49.not arguing about that. In a democracy, when people are elected
:23:50. > :23:55.to do that, that is what they should do. That is what the SNP plans to
:23:56. > :23:59.do. Can you give us evidence that as opinion stands now in Scotland, that
:24:00. > :24:02.the Scottish people want a second referendum? Where is the evidence
:24:03. > :24:07.that there is a majority among the Scottish people for a second
:24:08. > :24:12.referendum? As you well know, there are a range of polls, some of them
:24:13. > :24:17.showing that people want a referendum now. Not one shows a
:24:18. > :24:23.majority for that. Some saying they don't want a referendum at al. But
:24:24. > :24:28.our political system is not based on opinion polls, but on real votes and
:24:29. > :24:34.in Scotland we had a real vote and the people decided to elect a
:24:35. > :24:37.Scottish Government led by the SNP with a cast iron manifesto on this
:24:38. > :24:42.very issue, that is Scotland's Government at the present time. And
:24:43. > :24:44.Scotland's Government intends to make a proposal a to the Scottish
:24:45. > :24:48.Parliament and the Parliament is likely to vote for this. This is
:24:49. > :24:54.much more important than opinion polls. Except your party used to
:24:55. > :25:01.talk about opinion polls. You used to say, several leading SNP members
:25:02. > :25:07.said to me, we could haven't a second referendum until there was a
:25:08. > :25:11.clear 60/40 majority in the polls for having one. That is not me
:25:12. > :25:15.saying that, maybe not you, but that used to be what you argued. I'm
:25:16. > :25:21.saying now there is no evidence that is the case so far? No, there is
:25:22. > :25:25.evidence that people faced with a prospect of Scotland being taken out
:25:26. > :25:32.of the the European Union against the will of people here and it has
:25:33. > :25:39.not been mentioned but 62% of voters in Scotland voted to remain in the
:25:40. > :25:44.EU, in these circumstances and it was in SNP manifesto, the Scottish
:25:45. > :25:49.government could proceed with people to choose. You say you understand
:25:50. > :25:53.and then you question it. No, I ask a different matter and you keep
:25:54. > :25:58.answering a question that I'm not asking. So I think we will both quit
:25:59. > :26:03.while we are not ahead. We had better leave it there. Thank you
:26:04. > :26:09.very much. Where is this going to go? At the moment, Theresa May has
:26:10. > :26:14.managed to rearm the SNP. Who actually have been facing problems
:26:15. > :26:17.domestically with how they have been administering the government of
:26:18. > :26:22.Scotland. What is the evidence of that. There is no signs in the poll
:26:23. > :26:27.Naas Brexit has been a O'O'-- that Brexit has been a game-changer in
:26:28. > :26:31.Scotland. The demand for a second referendum and how they may vote,
:26:32. > :26:35.Brexit has not moved the dial on that. You can't deny them their
:26:36. > :26:41.excuse about it having materially changed. There is no question about
:26:42. > :26:45.that. That is for if SNP. What I'm saying, there is a lot of focus
:26:46. > :26:50.group work being done in Scotland and what they are finding that is
:26:51. > :26:55.the prospect of endless Tory governments in Westminster, that
:26:56. > :26:58.they don't like. That is a worry. But Brexit, single market, customs,
:26:59. > :27:04.union, none of that has moved the dial. But this is a fantastic
:27:05. > :27:07.tactical move for the SNP to distract attention back on to the
:27:08. > :27:11.whole issue of process about a second referendum. Because they can
:27:12. > :27:16.portray the London government blocking the will of the Scottish
:27:17. > :27:19.people and just... That is something that plays very well for them. I
:27:20. > :27:29.think that the thing about the SNP is they're good at strategy, but
:27:30. > :27:38.they're better attack ticks. And -- better at tactics. That will help
:27:39. > :27:42.them in their eventual goal. The Prime Minister has been addressing
:27:43. > :27:45.the issue in Scotland. This is what she said to the Conservative spring
:27:46. > :27:51.conference. We have seen that tunnel vision on display again this week.
:27:52. > :27:56.The SNP argue that we should break up the UK, because we are leaving
:27:57. > :28:00.the EU. But three years ago, they campaigned for a result that would
:28:01. > :28:05.have taken Scotland out of the EU altogether. They're happy to see
:28:06. > :28:08.power rest in Brussels, but if those powers come back to London, they
:28:09. > :28:19.want them give on the Edinburgh to try and give them back to Brussels.
:28:20. > :28:21.And the Conservative MSP, Murdo Fraser, joins
:28:22. > :28:29.The SNP put into Nair manifesto on which they won to form a government,
:28:30. > :28:33.if there was a material change there should be a second referendum, there
:28:34. > :28:38.has been a material change, so they're within Nair rights to call a
:28:39. > :28:43.second referendum? Well of course the SNP don't have a majority in the
:28:44. > :28:46.Scottish Parliament. They went into the Scottish Parliament election
:28:47. > :28:51.with a majority and they lost a majority on that manifesto you
:28:52. > :28:55.mentioned. Of course, we had a vote in 2014, it is not even three years.
:28:56. > :29:01.There has been a material change. We had a high turn out. Let's remember
:29:02. > :29:05.in 2014 we knew there was an EU referendum in prospect and that was
:29:06. > :29:08.happening. It was mentioned in the SNP's White Paper. But if we accept
:29:09. > :29:15.the material change argument, the SNP do not have a majority in the
:29:16. > :29:18.Scottish Parliament, they lost their majority based upon their manifesto.
:29:19. > :29:22.There is a majority in the Scottish Parliament for a second referendum.
:29:23. > :29:27.You say they don't have a majority, the whole system was designed not to
:29:28. > :29:33.give anybody a majority, but for a period 2 SNP did. And with the Green
:29:34. > :29:35.Party there is a majority in the Scottish Parliament, they're a
:29:36. > :29:41.proindependence party and they talked of a change with Brexit. The
:29:42. > :29:48.Scottish Parliament is within its right to call for another
:29:49. > :29:51.referendum. Is it not? The six Green members were not elected on that
:29:52. > :29:56.basis. Their manifesto said they would have to get a million
:29:57. > :29:59.signatures on a petition before they could support another referendum.
:30:00. > :30:04.But there is another point about the Scottish Parliament. I couldn't but
:30:05. > :30:08.smile listening to your interview with Angus Robertson, who doesn't
:30:09. > :30:14.sit in the Scottish Parliament, but you think might pay attention as
:30:15. > :30:18.deputy leader of the SNP, the SNP Government in Edinburgh routinely
:30:19. > :30:22.ignore and dismiss votes in the the Scottish Parliament when they lose
:30:23. > :30:28.them. Just last week they lost a vote on education. Two weeks ago
:30:29. > :30:31.they lost two votes. What happens to the Scottish Government when nay
:30:32. > :30:38.lose votes in Scottish Parliament in they ignore them and now they have
:30:39. > :30:43.the arrogance to say that the UK Government has to listen to votes in
:30:44. > :30:50.the Scottish Parliament when they ignore votes. You couldn't make it
:30:51. > :30:54.up. Angus Robert Robertson seems to be ignorant. Which part of SNP
:30:55. > :30:57.manifesto don't you understand, we believe the Scottish Parliament
:30:58. > :31:01.should have the right to hold another referendum if there is a
:31:02. > :31:07.material change in the circumstances that prevailed in 2014. Such as
:31:08. > :31:14.Scotland being taken out of the EU agains our will.
:31:15. > :31:21.That is exactly what has happened! So why are you complaining... I know
:31:22. > :31:26.your party has had problems delivering on your manifesto
:31:27. > :31:31.recently, but they are delivering on what they promised. That is a
:31:32. > :31:33.manifesto on which they fought an election which they came into with a
:31:34. > :31:40.parliamentary majority and came out having lost. They got 46.5% of the
:31:41. > :31:46.vote, Mr Fraser. But they did not get a majority. People in Scotland,
:31:47. > :31:49.and our votes more than double, our seats more than doubled in the
:31:50. > :31:53.Scottish Parliament. People in Scotland do not want another
:31:54. > :31:57.referendum. It is a distraction from the important business that the SNP
:31:58. > :32:02.need to be getting on with, sorting out the mess they made on the
:32:03. > :32:05.Scottish economy, education, health service and justice system. That's
:32:06. > :32:09.what they need to be doing. People will not take kindly to this
:32:10. > :32:14.distraction. We will see how opinion goes on that stand-off over that. It
:32:15. > :32:17.will be interesting to see whether the Scottish people Paul Kerr at the
:32:18. > :32:21.idea of Westminster stubbing it or whether they don't care as much as
:32:22. > :32:26.Mr Robinson would have us believe. But what is the Tory position? Is it
:32:27. > :32:30.the timing of a second referendum that you object to or the very
:32:31. > :32:39.principle of one? What Theresa May made clear yesterday that we're not
:32:40. > :32:48.saying "No, not ever? -- win at saying" no, not ever" we're just
:32:49. > :32:55.saying "No, not now". Between now and never, when? What we have to do
:32:56. > :32:58.is have an informed decision. The people of Scotland must be able to
:32:59. > :33:04.make an informed choice about their future. That means two things.
:33:05. > :33:08.That's called a referendum. Understanding what Brexit means and
:33:09. > :33:11.the consequences of it for Scotland. And also understanding what the
:33:12. > :33:15.alternative would be. The SNP are claiming they would want a
:33:16. > :33:20.referendum because they are being taken out of the EU against our
:33:21. > :33:26.will, and yet in the last few days it has become entirely unclear what
:33:27. > :33:37.the SNP position on EU membership is. There's suggesting that Scotland
:33:38. > :33:44.would not necessarily get back into the EU. You're telling me about SNP
:33:45. > :33:50.policy. I know where it isn't. I'm asking you what your policy is,
:33:51. > :33:56.would you agree to a referendum once the Brexit deal is done and dusted?
:33:57. > :34:00.What the Prime Minister said yesterday was that the test would be
:34:01. > :34:04.that we would see the consequences of Brexit and the impact of that and
:34:05. > :34:08.we would see what the SNP alternative would be and if there
:34:09. > :34:11.was a demonstrable demand from the Scottish people for another
:34:12. > :34:16.referendum, then at that time we would consider it, but we're not
:34:17. > :34:17.going to do it before those tests. OK, Mr Fraser, thank you very much
:34:18. > :34:23.for joining us. Coming up in a moment
:34:24. > :34:28.it's our regular look at what's been For now it's time to say
:34:29. > :34:31.goodbye to Miranda Green. So for the next half an hour, we're
:34:32. > :34:41.going to be focussing on Europe. We'll be discussing what's next
:34:42. > :34:44.for Brexit and the rest of the EU. First though here's our guide
:34:45. > :34:56.to the latest from Europe - The Dutch Prime Minister Mark Wotte
:34:57. > :35:02.celebrated victory in his country's election, easily defeating the
:35:03. > :35:08.anti-immigration right wing party of Geert Wilders. Commission President
:35:09. > :35:16.Jean-Claude Juncker said he was scandalised. We would never accept
:35:17. > :35:19.the comparison between the Nazis and the now governments. The European
:35:20. > :35:28.Court of Human Rights ruled that Hungary unlawfully kept two migrants
:35:29. > :35:30.in a transit zone. It could... The Spanish Prime Minister says an
:35:31. > :35:36.independent Scotland would have to join the back of the queue for EU
:35:37. > :35:41.membership. Spain's membership is worried about the separatist
:35:42. > :35:44.movement in Catalonia. The EU's highest court has ruled that
:35:45. > :35:52.companies who ban staff from -- kanban staff who wear specific
:35:53. > :35:54.religious symbols but it must be based on the company requiring all
:35:55. > :36:01.employees to dress neutrally. And with us for the next 30
:36:02. > :36:04.minutes I've been joined by the UKIP MEP Gerard Batten
:36:05. > :36:06.and the Conservative Let's take a look at
:36:07. > :36:13.the European Court of Justice's What do you make of it? It seems to
:36:14. > :36:18.break the ECJ into line with where the UK is, as far as I can work out.
:36:19. > :36:25.You can't discriminate against one culture or religion, you must be
:36:26. > :36:28.fair to all. Theresa May made it clear at PMQs that she disapproved
:36:29. > :36:33.of the ruling, she said women had the right to choose how they dress.
:36:34. > :36:40.That's not quite what the ECJ is saying. She's saying Barbu but if
:36:41. > :36:47.there is to be some restriction on the front facing element then all
:36:48. > :36:50.should be treated equally and fairly. First of all, we shouldn't
:36:51. > :36:56.be under the restriction of the ECJ... I got that bit! Burst of all
:36:57. > :37:00.it's about commission today company have a dress code? That's not an
:37:01. > :37:03.unreasonable thing. This judgment is fraught with difficulties because it
:37:04. > :37:10.would also mean that people can't wear Jewish skull caps, Christian
:37:11. > :37:13.crosses... It is not about having a policy on headscarves but a policy
:37:14. > :37:17.on face coverings so that you have the same rule for everybody whether
:37:18. > :37:21.in a public building or private. Is it right, do you think, that seeks
:37:22. > :37:29.would not be able to wear turbans at work? -- that Sikhs would not be
:37:30. > :37:35.able to wear turbans at work? That's not what it's doing at all. It's
:37:36. > :37:40.giving companies the chance to treat all its employees fairly. If it said
:37:41. > :37:45.we wanted their religious symbols at all that any kind, would the Sikhs
:37:46. > :37:51.then be in trouble with the turban? Because as I understand it, that is
:37:52. > :37:55.a religious manifestation for Sikhs. It would have to justify why it was
:37:56. > :38:01.making that statement and if it they couldn't justify it, they would not
:38:02. > :38:07.be allowed to. Interesting development, we will see what the
:38:08. > :38:10.national law courts make of it. They were saying that the details needed
:38:11. > :38:12.to be sorted out at a national and local level.
:38:13. > :38:15.Now, yesterday the bill enabling Theresa May to trigger Article 50
:38:16. > :38:17.and start the negotiations which will end with Britian's exit
:38:18. > :38:21.Downing Street has said that the Prime Minister will trigger
:38:22. > :38:24.Article 50 at the end of the month - so what will happen next?
:38:25. > :38:28.European Council president Donald Tusk has said
:38:29. > :38:31.he would need just 48 hours to respond to the UK with "draft
:38:32. > :38:42.Tusk has also said an extraordinary meeting of the EU27 -
:38:43. > :38:44.that's all the EU countries minus the UK -
:38:45. > :38:47.will take place in April, or possibly May, where European
:38:48. > :38:50.leaders will decide a guideline for the negotiating mandate.
:38:51. > :38:53.Only once the mandate is agreed will the official
:38:54. > :38:56.negotiations begin, probably sometime in June or July,
:38:57. > :38:58.with citizen's rights and the Brexit divorce bill likely
:38:59. > :39:12.Both sides need to reach an agreement by October 2018,
:39:13. > :39:16.leaving enough time for the UK and European Parliaments to sign off
:39:17. > :39:23.European talks often go way beyond the deadline.
:39:24. > :39:34.If there's no agreement, there is a chance that the UK
:39:35. > :39:36.could "crash out of the EU on world trade terms."
:39:37. > :39:39.Brexit Secretary David Davis said on Wednesday that the UK
:39:40. > :39:41.Government had not assessed the economic impact of such
:39:42. > :39:44.Donald Tusk addressed the issue when he addressed
:39:45. > :39:47.to the European Parliament on Wednesday.
:39:48. > :39:52.I want to be clear that a no-deal scenario would be bad for everyone.
:39:53. > :40:04.Because it would leave a number of issues unresolved.
:40:05. > :40:07.We will not be intimidated by threats and I can
:40:08. > :40:11.assure you they simply will not work.
:40:12. > :40:15.Our goal is to have a smooth devolve and a good framework for the
:40:16. > :40:18.future and it is good to know that Prime Minister Theresa May shares
:40:19. > :40:28.Our use surprised, or does it matter, that the government, given
:40:29. > :40:33.that it said this could be an option, that no deal would be better
:40:34. > :40:39.than a bad deal, has not had a game plan for what no deal would mean? --
:40:40. > :40:43.are you surprised? Yes, considering we've done it, it's surprisingly
:40:44. > :40:47.haven't done it. You talked about WTO terms and the big issue here is
:40:48. > :40:51.about trade. There's no way you're going to unravel the tens of
:40:52. > :40:55.thousands of EU laws before you leave but on trade they need to made
:40:56. > :41:03.a simple offer, they need to have continued tariff free trade with
:41:04. > :41:09.freedoms on services and capital but they cannot have people. We could
:41:10. > :41:13.offer them that option and then it would be in their interests to do
:41:14. > :41:18.it, because this would be a decision of the Council, by the way, when
:41:19. > :41:23.they do this, and Angela Merkel would have to answer for the German
:41:24. > :41:27.car-makers to say why they are not accepting a deal to do this but
:41:28. > :41:31.would prefer the external tariffs brought up. It is a deal that could
:41:32. > :41:34.be done in an afternoon. That is the principal but it doesn't tell us
:41:35. > :41:39.what the economic consequences would be. Are you surprised the government
:41:40. > :41:42.has not done this yet all is economic modelling so discredited
:41:43. > :41:48.after what we said before the referendum vote that it is not worth
:41:49. > :41:55.the candle? I think we are focused on the positive and constructive
:41:56. > :42:01.case. Right now we must focus on getting the best deal, it will be a
:42:02. > :42:08.multitrack approach to these negotiations. Some things are
:42:09. > :42:13.straightforward. Michelle is going to head up the negotiations on the
:42:14. > :42:17.EU side and he is saying that we need to agree the divorce build a
:42:18. > :42:22.four-week talk about the post Brexit relationship between the EU and the
:42:23. > :42:26.UK. The British government, particularly David Davis, are saying
:42:27. > :42:30.we need to talk about both at the same time. That could be a
:42:31. > :42:32.deal-breaker if the Europeans don't agree to that. The whole thing is
:42:33. > :42:41.fraught with difficulties because there is a report being prepared by
:42:42. > :42:46.the economic and monetary committee. They want the ECJ to have continued
:42:47. > :42:53.control of jurisdiction, they want to control their tax policy. The man
:42:54. > :42:58.in charge of negotiations is Mr Hofstadt, who is the most
:42:59. > :43:06.enthusiastic integrationist you will find. He's not in charge! He is a
:43:07. > :43:10.senior observer, is he not? On the half of the parliament. On the heart
:43:11. > :43:14.of the parliament. He will have no negotiating role whatsoever. The
:43:15. > :43:18.lines described here, every single one of those committees is doing
:43:19. > :43:22.that. They want the hardest deal imaginable. The fairest one I've
:43:23. > :43:25.read is from the Constitutional affairs committee which was actually
:43:26. > :43:29.quite a fair exposition of what we are and what could happen. For
:43:30. > :43:33.example, one of the things they say is that we are under no legal
:43:34. > :43:37.obligation to pay any money into the budget. That was the House of Lords
:43:38. > :43:39.that said that. Your other committee has said that now? The
:43:40. > :43:44.constitutional affairs committee of the European Parliament. All right.
:43:45. > :43:47.Do you think it would be a deal-breaker if the European stick
:43:48. > :43:51.to the current plan, we need to agree the divorce bill before we
:43:52. > :43:59.talk about our future relationship? As far as I'm concerned, the first
:44:00. > :44:02.thing... The bottom line, if it is indeed a deal-breaker, the problem
:44:03. > :44:09.is for the EU, they need the money from the UK. Money has become a
:44:10. > :44:12.bigger issue now, hasn't it? The continuing programmes right now,
:44:13. > :44:16.French farmers will need money, where is it going to come from if
:44:17. > :44:21.not from the UK in that period? The last thing they need is the UK
:44:22. > :44:26.walking away from the table. Let me ask you just briefly, do you buy
:44:27. > :44:32.this rather sanguine approach that we will have, in effect, the shape
:44:33. > :44:39.of the deal by the autumn of 2018. In all the summits I've covered in
:44:40. > :44:43.European Union negotiations, they always go down to the wire? I think
:44:44. > :44:46.we've already got it in a way because Mrs May is not going to
:44:47. > :44:51.reveal a single EU law or amend one before we leave and she is going to
:44:52. > :44:54.incorporate the inside body of the EU lock into British law, so what
:44:55. > :45:00.changes... Do you think it could be done by the autumn of 2018? I'm just
:45:01. > :45:05.talking about the timetable. Do you think it could all be done? They
:45:06. > :45:08.certainly can't renegotiate every EU law by then. Do you think it could
:45:09. > :45:11.be done to give time for the Scottish parliament, the British
:45:12. > :45:15.Parliament, everyone else to have a say? I believe the divorce could be
:45:16. > :45:18.done within that period but the other element is the trade deal
:45:19. > :45:22.itself and that could take longer. I think there's no point pretending
:45:23. > :45:24.otherwise. The bottom line is the divorce structure and settlement
:45:25. > :45:28.cover these elements can be mapped out in a two-year period. The main
:45:29. > :45:30.thing is the issues I've just described. Very well, we will see,
:45:31. > :45:34.all to play for. What is the future
:45:35. > :45:35.direction of Europe? Following the shock of Brexit
:45:36. > :45:39.and the election of the openly hostile Donald Trump,
:45:40. > :45:41.will the EU come closer together, or is the path forward one
:45:42. > :45:44.of looser cooperation? MEPs in Strasbourg have been looking
:45:45. > :45:46.at the five options laid out by the Commission in a White Paper,
:45:47. > :46:00.as Dan Johnson has been finding out. Rome, 60 years ago when Europe's
:46:01. > :46:05.future was first mapped out. Many of the original principles still guide
:46:06. > :46:12.it, but this week's Europe's leaders started discussing a new direction.
:46:13. > :46:21.The idea of a multispeed Europe will be one option. I understand the
:46:22. > :46:24.reason for this. Some expect systemic changes that would loosen
:46:25. > :46:30.ties and strengthen the role of nations. But which way to turn, how
:46:31. > :46:34.best to get an agreement and are they serious about change? The
:46:35. > :46:38.Brexit decision has give an push to go into this direction and finally
:46:39. > :46:42.it has already reached the commission and you know some of the
:46:43. > :46:45.other political groups in this House that we do need to reconsider some
:46:46. > :46:53.of the things and some of the ways we have done politics in the past in
:46:54. > :46:57.the European Union. Five options to be considered. Carrying on. Cutting
:46:58. > :47:03.back to nothing but the single market. Already effectively ruled
:47:04. > :47:07.out by the commission. Those who want to do more would allow closer
:47:08. > :47:14.integration for some while others moved at their own pace. They could
:47:15. > :47:19.all do less more efficiently. Or they could agree on doing much more
:47:20. > :47:26.together. The leader of Parliament's second biggest group know what is he
:47:27. > :47:35.wants. The best scenario is the fifth scenario, the possibility to
:47:36. > :47:42.go home, to go forward together, for more European integration, the
:47:43. > :47:49.majority of the people understand that we need a strong, more united
:47:50. > :47:53.Europe. It happens he was previously a forensic pathologist, so that
:47:54. > :47:58.begged an of course question. I don't think that Europe is a dead
:47:59. > :48:06.body! Thank you doctor. There does seem to be an acceptance that Europe
:48:07. > :48:12.has lost its way. So now there is a pause to look for a new way forward.
:48:13. > :48:16.But everyone has to agree on the best route. That I hope to do that
:48:17. > :48:30.by the end of the year. But that could be a tough ask. . Some euro
:48:31. > :48:34.sceptics don't like either option. They are one option with different
:48:35. > :48:38.degrees. Let's exclude the first one, that is keep everything like it
:48:39. > :48:43.is and in fact we are seeing that is not working. The second one is just
:48:44. > :48:47.focus on the the market. But the commission say we do not want is in.
:48:48. > :48:51.The other that he are three different degrees of integration.
:48:52. > :48:59.But the point is integration for what and to do what? Is this the way
:49:00. > :49:06.to get people to love Europe again? I think there needs to be a bottom
:49:07. > :49:10.up European movement. I think we as pro-Europeans need to go to streets
:49:11. > :49:15.and say we want this, because in some many countries there has been a
:49:16. > :49:20.narrative of the EU being something of the elite, being top down and we
:49:21. > :49:24.need to show no this is not true. The challenge is to gather new
:49:25. > :49:31.momentum and get back on track. All aboard then. Even if we don't know
:49:32. > :49:36.exactly where we are heading! All except the UK of course, Britain
:49:37. > :49:42.won't be along for the ride. You would have thought that the prospect
:49:43. > :49:47.of Britain leaving the EU, whip is a huge historic event, whether you're
:49:48. > :49:52.for or against, would have concentrated to minds to say where
:49:53. > :49:58.do we go from here without Britain as the EU 27? But it seeps to me --
:49:59. > :50:06.seems to me they're as divided as ever, is that right? Yes, everyone
:50:07. > :50:11.is pointing in a different direction and saying is forward. Jean-Claude
:50:12. > :50:18.Juncker had the trick of multispeed Europe. That seems to be getting
:50:19. > :50:24.cress dense. Credence. People like that if they're in the fast lane. In
:50:25. > :50:30.the slow lane is the east European and the Nordics. So those in the
:50:31. > :50:34.fast track see why it is important, those on the slow track wonder how
:50:35. > :50:37.they get into the fast track. The elections, we have had the Dutch
:50:38. > :50:41.election and that has produced a result which I suspect will take a
:50:42. > :50:48.long while to form a government in Holland. We have the French and the
:50:49. > :51:05.Germans coming up. A France run by Mr Macron and a Germany run by Mr
:51:06. > :51:11.Schultes would be done from one run by marine Le Pen. Yes the most
:51:12. > :51:15.sensible option would be No 2, to concentrate on tariff-free trade.
:51:16. > :51:20.And then maybe you would have wanted to stay in. We want the trade but
:51:21. > :51:30.not the rest of it. But they're not going do that. ?" No. Junk.
:51:31. > :51:39.Jean-Claude Juncker said he would knot say, but we think it is ongs
:51:40. > :51:46.five. It is option five. Emmanuel Macron is a strong European, Mr
:51:47. > :51:50.Shultz is a strong European too, in Italy, four out of five of the
:51:51. > :51:55.biggest parties are against euro. They haven't as yet had an election,
:51:56. > :52:00.but they might. We don't know. So the east Europeans are a whole
:52:01. > :52:04.different ball game too. It is quite difficult to see the way forward
:52:05. > :52:12.with all these differences of opinion? The only thing that seems
:52:13. > :52:18.to bring Europe together is Brexit. A lot of populist movements may not
:52:19. > :52:25.win elections, but they're dragging the debate to their part. As they
:52:26. > :52:32.did in Holland. So the complexion of Europe will change even if nay don't
:52:33. > :52:37.win. Whatever path they take and it won't be our decision, but whatever
:52:38. > :52:41.path Europe does take, is it in our interests that give than it is still
:52:42. > :52:48.our biggest market by a long whey, is it in our interest that it should
:52:49. > :52:53.succeed? It is in our interest it does not go into economic melt down.
:52:54. > :52:58.But there is a tremendous disaster waiting which is what happens to the
:52:59. > :53:01.euro. In the report of Jean-Claude Juncker, it said we have to do
:53:02. > :53:07.something about the rates of youth unemployment. In the second
:53:08. > :53:13.paragraph it said we must deepen union. But one of the causes of
:53:14. > :53:22.problem is the European single currency. He is trying to make it
:53:23. > :53:27.work with the proper banking union. The difficulty with that given the
:53:28. > :53:32.Dutch election is that reforming the urp will be more difficult than
:53:33. > :53:39.ever. -- euro. There is not a common prison, so there is no at common
:53:40. > :53:44.solution. -- not a common problem. The 2019 European elections could
:53:45. > :53:47.see more parties like Ukip being elected. You will be leaving space
:53:48. > :53:50.probably. Divorces can be messy
:53:51. > :53:54.and if you fall out in a big way - over the money for example -
:53:55. > :53:56.it can make it very difficult So how can a messy Brexit
:53:57. > :54:00.breakup be avoided? Well, our Adam's been to the former
:54:01. > :54:02.Czechoslovakia to look at what can be learned
:54:03. > :54:14.from the "velvet divorce." Picture the scene,
:54:15. > :54:16.it is New Year's Eve 1992 and this square
:54:17. > :54:19.is packed with people celebrating the
:54:20. > :54:23.end of Czechoslovakia and the birth of an independent Slovak Republic
:54:24. > :54:27.in a process known as the Velvet Divorce, so-called, because not
:54:28. > :54:33.a single shot was fired. In Bratislava Castle,
:54:34. > :54:36.evidence of where it all started - handmade signs
:54:37. > :54:38.from the protests that But the public weren't
:54:39. > :54:45.as involved in The main contender here
:54:46. > :54:50.is the leader is the Slovak Nationalist Vladimir Meciar
:54:51. > :54:58.was the victor in elections in 1992. Over an intense few weeks,
:54:59. > :55:01.he negotiated a split with his counterpart in the richer
:55:02. > :55:04.Czech half of the country. There was no referendum
:55:05. > :55:06.and the divorce followed a simple There are ten million Czechs,
:55:07. > :55:12.five million Slovaks, plus or minus, property was divided
:55:13. > :55:16.two to one, military was divided similar way,
:55:17. > :55:21.diplomatic service and our embassies were divided, so very peacefully
:55:22. > :55:24.and we didn't have any border disputes, because we always had
:55:25. > :55:28.border between Czech and Slovak Republics, so I think
:55:29. > :55:36.there were no major fights. Since then, Slovakia has joined
:55:37. > :55:38.the EU and flourished. Iveta Radicova is a member
:55:39. > :55:44.of the former Prime She says the split was undemocratic,
:55:45. > :55:50.left her country briefly bankrupt Some things were really solved ten
:55:51. > :55:57.years later, not immediately. All institutions of
:55:58. > :56:15.controlling mechanisms. For the the next generation
:56:16. > :56:22.of politicians like the Economy Minister,
:56:23. > :56:24.it is all ancient history. I think we are a bit
:56:25. > :56:30.Czech Republic in best partnership with other
:56:31. > :56:35.neighbour countries. I'm not the only
:56:36. > :56:40.visitor from the UK. The Brexit Secretary
:56:41. > :56:42.David Davies was in Could he have spied any
:56:43. > :56:46.lessons for the UK's upcoming I don't think ill it
:56:47. > :56:54.will be over in one or The key is to maintain good
:56:55. > :56:58.will and maintain good relationship where you are,
:56:59. > :57:04.not playing game and tricks. It is a triumph of
:57:05. > :57:06.nationalism and not much else as the two republics
:57:07. > :57:10.go their separate ways. Watching another famous
:57:11. > :57:11.correspondent who stood on this spot, the lesson I have learned
:57:12. > :57:15.is separating seems massive at the time, but living apart lasts
:57:16. > :57:32.for much, much longer. During the Scottish referendum I did
:57:33. > :57:37.a documentary about breaking up and looked at the velvet divorce.
:57:38. > :57:42.Although it involved two small country, there were score o's of
:57:43. > :57:48.treaties. The lesson is if you made the decision to go, go and sort the
:57:49. > :57:54.details out. Try and sort out the details before you won't end up
:57:55. > :57:59.going. But the British government's position, it may not be acceptable
:58:00. > :58:03.to the British people, before we go, we want to see what it means. There
:58:04. > :58:08.are some things we can untangle quickly, other involve us building
:58:09. > :58:14.something afresh. So we have a new relationship and a severing of the
:58:15. > :58:18.old. We can do that if we both enter the discussion in the right frame of
:58:19. > :58:26.mind kneeing harming one side -- knowing harming one side harms the
:58:27. > :58:32.other. Can you do it without there being a victor? The rest can be
:58:33. > :58:37.sorted it won't be difficult. The immigration is the next biggest
:58:38. > :58:41.problem. It can be done, but you have to be focussed on the outcome
:58:42. > :58:43.and that is a good deal for both sides that. What is the people of
:58:44. > :58:48.Europe want. We shall see. Thanks to Gerard Batten
:58:49. > :58:57.and Ian Duncan. I hope you join me for the next one.
:58:58. > :59:00.Goodbye.