:00:37. > :00:40.Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics at the start
:00:41. > :00:43.of what promises to be an historic week as Britain begins
:00:44. > :00:49.So what future awaits, both at home and abroad?
:00:50. > :00:51.One of Theresa May's first acts as Prime Minister was to meet
:00:52. > :00:54.Scotland's First Minister to try and agree a common
:00:55. > :00:59.They meet again later today but, as the relationship faces strain,
:01:00. > :01:05.Should Britain come out of the European customs union?
:01:06. > :01:08.Theresa May says she wants to be able to strike trade deals
:01:09. > :01:11.but could be open to some sort of associate membership.
:01:12. > :01:14.Does Brexit mean time is up for the so-called
:01:15. > :01:20.Journalist David Goodhart offers some advice for his fellow liberals.
:01:21. > :01:23.And, political history is often made after an exchange of letters.
:01:24. > :01:26.As Britain prepares to write to the EU we take a look at some
:01:27. > :01:38.All that in the next hour and with us for the whole
:01:39. > :01:42.of the programme today, the Conservative MP, Mark Field,
:01:43. > :01:54.First, the Prime Minister is in Scotland and will hold talks
:01:55. > :01:56.with First Minister Nicola Sturgeon this afternoon ahead
:01:57. > :01:59.of the triggering of Article 50 later this week.
:02:00. > :02:02.It's the first time the two have met since Ms Sturgeon
:02:03. > :02:04.announced plans for a second referendum on independence.
:02:05. > :02:11.The Prime Minister will use a speech in the next hour to say she wants
:02:12. > :02:13.to strengthen the UK rather than allow ties to become
:02:14. > :02:16.Our Scotland correspondent James Shaw is in Glasgow.
:02:17. > :02:20.What's the reception going to be like this time? And in fact,
:02:21. > :02:25.relations between the two women? It's going to be a very interesting
:02:26. > :02:28.meeting, I think, isn't it this afternoon? Perhaps one metric we
:02:29. > :02:32.would like at is how long will the meeting take? Because we know that
:02:33. > :02:37.they have totally different agendas. On the one hand we're going to hear
:02:38. > :02:40.Theresa May talking about strengthening the United Kingdom,
:02:41. > :02:44.bringing the Four Nations together to become a force in the wider world
:02:45. > :02:47.and Ond, we know that Nicola Sturgeon wants to talk about a
:02:48. > :02:51.second independence referendum. There will be a debate in the
:02:52. > :02:55.Scottish Parliament tomorrow on exactly that subject and Theresa May
:02:56. > :02:59.has said that is not on the table at the moment. She won't talk about a
:03:00. > :03:03.second independence referendum. So how long will the talks actually go
:03:04. > :03:07.on for? Yes, it could be a very short meeting and a frosty one
:03:08. > :03:12.between the two of them if neither is prepared to give any ground. Do
:03:13. > :03:15.we know on the logistics front is there going to be a handshake
:03:16. > :03:19.outside? Are they going to have joint press conferences? We don't
:03:20. > :03:23.know those details as yet. I think this has been set-up somewhat at
:03:24. > :03:27.last minute. So in fact the arrangements still seem to be
:03:28. > :03:32.underway. Earlier on this way this morning. Perhaps one thing they
:03:33. > :03:34.might be able to talk about constructively is the repatriation
:03:35. > :03:38.of powers from Brussels when Brexit happens. We know that Nicola
:03:39. > :03:42.Sturgeon would like to see powers over agriculture and fisheries
:03:43. > :03:46.coming back to Scotland and Theresa May might be willing to talk about
:03:47. > :03:50.that. Not that she will make any specific commitments just now, but
:03:51. > :03:51.it's something that is likely at least they will be able to discuss
:03:52. > :03:54.that. James, Shaw, thank you. Joining me now is the SNP's Europe
:03:55. > :04:04.spokesman, Stephen Gethins. Welcome back to the Daily Politics.
:04:05. > :04:07.Thank you. Picking up on James Shaw's point about the repatriation
:04:08. > :04:10.of powers on fishing and farming. Were that to happen, would that
:04:11. > :04:13.satisfy you and your colleagues in the SNP and would there be no need
:04:14. > :04:18.for a second independence referendum? Well, the powers that
:04:19. > :04:23.the Scottish Government were looking for were set out before Chris time
:04:24. > :04:26.when the First Minister set out a compromise dealment we are 48 hours
:04:27. > :04:30.before the triggering of Article 50. It is good that the Prime Minister
:04:31. > :04:34.is travelling to Scotland, it always is, of course, but it is pretty last
:04:35. > :04:39.minute given that they have had the compromise deal since before
:04:40. > :04:41.Christmas which set out some of the powers the Scottish Government were
:04:42. > :04:48.looking for to make the compromise work. If she offers the powers would
:04:49. > :04:55.you call off a second independence referendum? Amber Rudd and the Home
:04:56. > :04:57.Secretary said we wouldn't be getting some powers. It will be
:04:58. > :05:03.interesting to see if there has been a U-turn. The powers would have to
:05:04. > :05:07.be substantial. The answer is yes, if they are substantial? The
:05:08. > :05:11.compromise deal the Scottish Government have set out and they
:05:12. > :05:14.said they will put the independence referendum to one side if the
:05:15. > :05:17.compromise was met. The ball is firmly in the UK Government's court
:05:18. > :05:21.especially since that document was more detailed than anything the UK
:05:22. > :05:24.Government published so far. . That document will have been read by the
:05:25. > :05:27.Prime Minister and her Government ministers, I'm sure it has, and they
:05:28. > :05:31.have had time to look at it. Yes. And if there is a compromise, as you
:05:32. > :05:35.say, if you don't get everything that you ask for, but you get some
:05:36. > :05:39.of what you asked for, on important areas like fishing and farming,
:05:40. > :05:43.would that be enough to say there won't be a second independence
:05:44. > :05:46.referendum? Well, the First Minister has been very clear, if there is a
:05:47. > :05:50.compromise they could put the referendum for a period of time to
:05:51. > :05:54.one side and we can try and make that compromise work. However, we
:05:55. > :05:57.are in a stage where just 48 hours beforehand, they have had the
:05:58. > :06:06.document for three mounts months. You have made that point? I'm not
:06:07. > :06:10.optimistic. But I hope I will be proved wrong. She has called your
:06:11. > :06:16.bluff. She said no to a second independence referendum now? She has
:06:17. > :06:22.clearly called the bluff of her Conservative colleagues as well.
:06:23. > :06:28.Ruth Davidson said she should not stand in the way of a second
:06:29. > :06:32.referendum. It also said that it would do something about a second
:06:33. > :06:35.independence referendum if there was an overwhelming support for it. Can
:06:36. > :06:38.you give me an example of a poll that shows a majority of the
:06:39. > :06:42.Scottish people agree with you that there should be another referendum
:06:43. > :06:45.before March 2019? There is only one way to find out what the will of the
:06:46. > :06:49.people is. The Scottish Government was elected on more votes than any
:06:50. > :06:56.Government has been elected in a constituency... That's not my
:06:57. > :07:02.question. I want a poll on the basis of basis of what you promised as a
:07:03. > :07:08.party. It was the SNP who said it was a once-in-a-lifetime poll. A few
:07:09. > :07:12.of them, you know, look at the Herald, 56% oppose a pre-Brexit
:07:13. > :07:15.referendum. If you look at the Scottish Daily Mail, 46% oppose a
:07:16. > :07:19.pre-Brexit referendum. There isn't within, is there? There isn't a poll
:07:20. > :07:22.that backs up your claim? You're looking at opinion polls there. The
:07:23. > :07:25.Scottish Government was lcted on a manifesto commitment. Now, here at
:07:26. > :07:30.Westminster, we've got a Government that is having great difficulty
:07:31. > :07:36.keeping to any of its manifesto commitments at the moment, be it the
:07:37. > :07:39.single market, be it over national insurance, you know, manifesto
:07:40. > :07:42.commitments are there to be tan serious will you and that's what the
:07:43. > :07:44.First Minister is doing and it is interesting that the Scottish
:07:45. > :07:49.Government was elected on an increased share of the vote, 47%,
:07:50. > :07:53.compared to 36% for the Tories and getting us into the mess that we're
:07:54. > :07:56.in at the moment. What's the point of Theresa May going to visit Nicola
:07:57. > :07:59.Sturgeon if she hasn't got anything to say? If the implication from
:08:00. > :08:03.Number Ten it will be a short meeting. She rejected this idea of a
:08:04. > :08:08.second independence referendum. It isn't exactly a charm offensive, is
:08:09. > :08:13.it? On the contrary. I think Theresa May made it plain the precious union
:08:14. > :08:17.is close to her heart. She doesn't like the idea of playing games with
:08:18. > :08:21.politics and I don't think she would have been there had it not been for
:08:22. > :08:24.Nicola Sturgeon bouncing the British Government only two weeks ago into
:08:25. > :08:29.this idea there should be another referendum. It was in the manifesto.
:08:30. > :08:33.Well, I think, it is interesting. One thing to watch for Theresa May
:08:34. > :08:41.she is, there are a lot of politicians who try and per port
:08:42. > :08:45.them to be manikelean. By going today, she is going to say, "Right,
:08:46. > :08:51.come on, you tell us what you'd like to see in this Brexit." She had the
:08:52. > :08:54.document for months! It is not about having the documentment two weeks
:08:55. > :08:57.ago, Nicola Sturgeon bounced us all into the idea. What was the
:08:58. > :09:02.surprise? What was the surprise? There was a great surprise. It was
:09:03. > :09:07.in the manifesto. Did you not read it? It is nothing to do with reading
:09:08. > :09:12.manifestos. We got through a Brexit Bill that had gone through the UK
:09:13. > :09:17.Parliament, both Houses of Parliament, at which point we were
:09:18. > :09:19.about to trigger Brexit, it might have well happened had it not been
:09:20. > :09:23.for Nicola Sturgeon playing politics. What Theresa May is going
:09:24. > :09:29.to do is say, "Right, you tell us what you'd like. Are you just
:09:30. > :09:34.playing politics? Or can we add something substantive into that
:09:35. > :09:38.Brexit letter?" Is Labour's voice clear on this issue or are you just
:09:39. > :09:42.spectators? Labour's voice has been clear. What is it? About protecting
:09:43. > :09:45.our constituents jobs and for me personally that means the customs
:09:46. > :09:49.union and the single market and I have got to be honest, I disagree
:09:50. > :09:54.with Mark about this idea of Theresa May as a clever tactician because
:09:55. > :09:57.she... I was saying she was authentic about where she stands on
:09:58. > :10:06.the union. So where she stands on the United Kingdom might be quite
:10:07. > :10:13.clear, but what she is doing is effectively cow to youing to Ukip
:10:14. > :10:17.which caused the SNP to react in the way they have. We are caught between
:10:18. > :10:21.two nationalisms, neither of which is good for our country. What's
:10:22. > :10:25.Labour's position on a second independence referendum. Jeremy
:10:26. > :10:29.Corbyn said it would be fine for the SNP to hold a second referendum? I'm
:10:30. > :10:32.with Kezia Dugdale on this. And she is the leader of Scottish Labour?
:10:33. > :10:37.Who said that Scottish people don't want one. So Jeremy Corbyn was
:10:38. > :10:41.wrong? Look, in the end, it is up to the Scottish people to decide, but
:10:42. > :10:46.absolutely clearly, Scottish people don't want another referendum. It
:10:47. > :10:51.was divisive. We experienced that division of our country during the
:10:52. > :10:54.EU referendum and stirred up in certain parts, there was a lot of
:10:55. > :10:59.ill feeling in both of those referendums and I don't think we
:11:00. > :11:01.want to go back there at a time when people are worrying about their
:11:02. > :11:05.jobs, when wages haven't gone up, these are the issues that politics
:11:06. > :11:08.should be deciding over, not stirring up division. I agree with
:11:09. > :11:13.Alison. What this realistically means is wait until the next
:11:14. > :11:17.Holyrood electionsment if there is a manifesto commitment after then to
:11:18. > :11:22.go for a further referendum, then fine, the Scottish people will have
:11:23. > :11:28.spoken. That's after 2021. I am know not sure what you have got against
:11:29. > :11:31.manifesto commitments. I'm stonished that you're telling us that the UK
:11:32. > :11:35.Government was so unprepared, given that this was in the manifesto, this
:11:36. > :11:40.was a compromise, this tripped up Theresa May's Article 50 process.
:11:41. > :11:44.That's an astonishing thing. Look, this shouldn't have come as a
:11:45. > :11:48.surprise. Can I just say, Stephen, isn't your whole argument for a
:11:49. > :11:54.pre-Brexit referendum based on a false assumption? Namely that you
:11:55. > :12:00.could leave the UK, and stay in the EU which is not guaranteed in fact,
:12:01. > :12:05.it is very unlikely to happen. Have you spoken to any Spanish
:12:06. > :12:10.politicians recently? A member was on BBC Scotland last week talking
:12:11. > :12:16.about it. That's a false assumption that you can leave the UK and stay
:12:17. > :12:19.in the EU... Look, Jo, on that question, I'd be glad to. Scotland
:12:20. > :12:24.is a country that's been a member of the European Union for 40 years. It
:12:25. > :12:28.has met the rules that you need to meet. It is a country whereby I've
:12:29. > :12:32.EU rights. We are net contributors to the European Union... You will
:12:33. > :12:36.have to join the queue like any new independent country? There is no
:12:37. > :12:40.such thing as a queuement Turkey joined the queue before half of the
:12:41. > :12:44.current members ever did. There is no such thing as a queue.
:12:45. > :12:48.Scotland... Who has told you in the EU that a promise that Scotland
:12:49. > :12:56.would automatically remain a member of the EU? Look, Juncker, Michael
:12:57. > :12:59.Martin, they have said that Scotland's voice needs to be
:13:00. > :13:07.listened to. That's not the same, is it? Scotland's voice needs to be
:13:08. > :13:10.listened to. OK. Thank you. I'm so unused to politicians stopping
:13:11. > :13:12.immediately when I say that. Stephen Gethins, thank you very much. You'll
:13:13. > :13:18.get him back. Of course! Now, it's time for our daily quiz.
:13:19. > :13:21.As if helping to take Britain out of the European Union wasn't enough,
:13:22. > :13:24.Nigel Farage and Aaron Banks, the self-styled "bad boys
:13:25. > :13:26.of Brexit", have set their sights on assisting another major
:13:27. > :13:28.constitutional overhaul. A) Advising Nicola Sturgeon over
:13:29. > :13:32.Scottish indepedence? B) Splitting California
:13:33. > :13:34.into East California C) Helping Catalonia
:13:35. > :13:42.to break away from Spain? Or D) Working with the Dalai Lama
:13:43. > :13:45.to have more autonomy for Tibet? At the end of the show,
:13:46. > :13:48.Mark and Alison will give Don't worry Alison you've got the
:13:49. > :13:55.whole show to think about it! BP Theresa May has insisted that Brexit
:13:56. > :13:58.offers an opportunity for the UK She maintains that leaving the EU
:13:59. > :14:04.isn't just about a new phase of international diplomacy,
:14:05. > :14:06.but it would be a "moment of change" to create "a stronger economy
:14:07. > :14:08.and fairer society". Now, the other parties are also
:14:09. > :14:12.outlining their vision for the Brexit negotiations
:14:13. > :14:14.and what the UK might look Both the Lib Dems and the Greens say
:14:15. > :14:23.they want a referendum on the terms of the deal the Government agrees
:14:24. > :14:26.with the EU and the public Now, this morning, Ukip
:14:27. > :14:29.have outlined their That the Government should have full
:14:30. > :14:45.control over immigration. That the UK should have full
:14:46. > :14:48.control over our waters, And that there should be no
:14:49. > :15:02.bill for the divorce. While, finally, the whole
:15:03. > :15:04.Brexit process should be By coincidence, Labour also have six
:15:05. > :15:14.tests for the Brexit negotiations. The party says the deal should
:15:15. > :15:17.ensure a strong and collaborative Perhaps most significantly,
:15:18. > :15:25.the party wants a deal with the EU to offer the "exact same benefits"
:15:26. > :15:28.the UK has from the single market It demands the "fair
:15:29. > :15:32.management of migration", which would mean the end
:15:33. > :15:35.of free movement. Labour also say the Brexit deal
:15:36. > :15:38.should defend workers' rights and protections
:15:39. > :15:40.as well as protecting It should, Labour say,
:15:41. > :15:45.be a deal that delivers for all regions and nations
:15:46. > :15:50.of the UK. Speaking in London this morning,
:15:51. > :15:52.the Shadow Brexit Secretary, Keir Starmer, said his party
:15:53. > :15:55.would be holding the Government to account on whether any deal
:15:56. > :16:01.with the EU meets Labour's tests. I don't underestimate
:16:02. > :16:03.the difficulty of the task the Prime Minister is about
:16:04. > :16:06.to embark on. On the contrary, I know it is going
:16:07. > :16:09.to be fiendishly difficult. But the stakes are high
:16:10. > :16:15.and the Prime Minister's approach Today, I've set out the values that
:16:16. > :16:23.should drive Britain's response to Brexit and the tests Labour
:16:24. > :16:28.will set for the final Brexit deal. Failure to meet these tests
:16:29. > :16:31.will affect how Labour votes Let me be clear - Labour will not
:16:32. > :16:39.support a deal that fails to reflect core British values and the six
:16:40. > :16:42.tests I've set out. And I'm joined now by
:16:43. > :16:44.the Ukip MEP Gerard Batten and the Liberal Democrat MP Alistair
:16:45. > :16:57.Carmichael. Welcome to both of you. First of
:16:58. > :17:01.all, Mark Field, the Prime Minister will trigger article 50 on Wednesday
:17:02. > :17:05.and she has set out what she has called an ambitious timetable to
:17:06. > :17:08.negotiate both the divorce settlement and a new trade deal with
:17:09. > :17:11.the EU within two years. Do you agree with the Foreign Secretary
:17:12. > :17:15.that it would be perfectly OK if the UK exits without a deal? I think
:17:16. > :17:19.it's far too early to make a judgment on this. We are at the
:17:20. > :17:25.beginning of the process. But she has said very clearly, Theresa May,
:17:26. > :17:28.no deal would be better better than a bad deal. And I think that is
:17:29. > :17:32.right. Both Houses of Parliament have endorsed that, that is the
:17:33. > :17:37.starting point. I think it's fair to say, many of us on all sides of the
:17:38. > :17:41.House, in my heart of hearts, I was a Remain person, for emotional and
:17:42. > :17:45.geopolitical reasons, I wanted to stay in the European Union, I always
:17:46. > :17:49.felt the comic arguments were more balanced. But equally I think we
:17:50. > :17:55.have to look at this in a positive and optimistic light. This is high
:17:56. > :18:00.diplomacy. This is going to be... High-stakes? There are going to be
:18:01. > :18:05.high-stakes as well. Alison McGovern, Labour wants a
:18:06. > :18:11.transitional arrangement, so that there is no cliff edge, as you would
:18:12. > :18:15.call it, if there was no deal. And that would get a bit more time for a
:18:16. > :18:21.final deal. That there will be those who think that is a license for
:18:22. > :18:26.negotiations to drag on because Brexit delayed would-be Brexit
:18:27. > :18:30.denied? I disagree with Mark about what he said about the Prime
:18:31. > :18:35.Minister saying no deal is better than a bad deal. No deal is an
:18:36. > :18:40.incredibly bad deal. WTO terms are not good for our country. I
:18:41. > :18:45.represent people who make things, manufacturing workers. Why wouldn't
:18:46. > :18:49.WTO rules be a good thing, in your mind? As David Davies explained,
:18:50. > :18:55.because of the tariffs, which he explained... Which could be quite
:18:56. > :19:01.low and agreed fairly easily? Could be, but there's a massive risk
:19:02. > :19:08.implied by that. And these are my constituents' jobs. It is all very
:19:09. > :19:11.well to say we must be positive. Sure, but let's not kid ourselves
:19:12. > :19:15.that there is this amazing deal waiting to be had, when all of our
:19:16. > :19:19.European partners are waiting for us to show any compromise or approach
:19:20. > :19:26.of working together with them, which so far the British government hasn't
:19:27. > :19:31.done. We've been too busy in my view kowtowing to, I'm afraid, the Ukip
:19:32. > :19:35.view of the world not enough offering, as Keir Starmer said,
:19:36. > :19:38.cooperation. The reason why a transitional deal is important is
:19:39. > :19:42.because it will keep business going, it will keep people in employment. A
:19:43. > :19:48.deal could take a long time, up to a decade, so we must make sure that we
:19:49. > :19:51.have provided a low-risk environment for business to get on with its job.
:19:52. > :19:56.Today, your party has said that Brexit should be done and dusted
:19:57. > :20:03.completely by the end of 2019. But we are talking about unpicking 40 or
:20:04. > :20:07.so years of treaties and agreements that were covering thousands of
:20:08. > :20:13.different areas - aviation, medical research, university grants... Isn't
:20:14. > :20:16.the reality, the way that Alison McGovern and Mark Field have
:20:17. > :20:21.described it, that we're going to be half in the EU and half out for many
:20:22. > :20:25.more years? What Ukip is saying is that we wouldn't go down the article
:20:26. > :20:30.50 road anyway. If we try to renegotiate every piece of 170,000
:20:31. > :20:34.bits of legislation, we would be here till kingdom come. Let me
:20:35. > :20:38.explain what we should do. Our tests are, for the Government Ahzeemah
:20:39. > :20:45.they have said they are taking this route, what we would do, if we were
:20:46. > :20:50.into control, would be to repeal the European Communities Act 1972, as a
:20:51. > :20:54.first step, not a last step, and then we would put ourselves in
:20:55. > :20:58.control of the process. So we would in effect still be part of the EU?
:20:59. > :21:02.No. We would say that we are no longer members of the EU under our
:21:03. > :21:06.law. We would take emergency action on trade, immigration... What would
:21:07. > :21:12.that do to the economy in that instance? Well, what you could do in
:21:13. > :21:16.an afternoon, not two years, is to say to the European Union, we want
:21:17. > :21:20.to continue in tariff free trade, and so do you because it is in your
:21:21. > :21:25.interest. You can have three of your four freedoms, goods, services and
:21:26. > :21:29.capital, but not people. Is Mrs Merkel going to say to the German,
:21:30. > :21:34.new fracture is, we have got to put tariffs on imports to the UK?
:21:35. > :21:41.Alistair Carmichael, what is your response? This is just in Lala land.
:21:42. > :21:46.In one afternoon, Ukip are going to live a farmers and fishermen in my
:21:47. > :21:50.constituency paying tariffs of up to about 20% to export into the single
:21:51. > :21:57.market, which is overwhelmingly our biggest single market. Banks and
:21:58. > :22:00.financial services companies in Mark's constituency, they all depend
:22:01. > :22:05.on being part of the single market to keep their headquarters here. The
:22:06. > :22:10.thing is, we are talking about one market, the constituent parts of the
:22:11. > :22:14.EU that remain have got another 26 that they can look to. Do you think
:22:15. > :22:18.it will last longer than two years to get this done and dusted? I think
:22:19. > :22:23.realistically we have to expect that it will. The Government has
:22:24. > :22:27.absolutely no idea... If that is the case, that it will take longer than
:22:28. > :22:30.two years, and if Alison McGovern is right that there could be all sorts
:22:31. > :22:34.of difficulties along the way, wouldn't it be better to cut and run
:22:35. > :22:40.now? You see, I would not start from here anyway. Sure, but if we enter
:22:41. > :22:47.into... What you're talking about is how to make a bad situation and make
:22:48. > :22:51.it worse. Or even make it, the worst possible situation. We've got to try
:22:52. > :22:55.and negotiate the best deal we possibly can, we've got to look at
:22:56. > :22:59.the future interest of our industries and jobs right across the
:23:00. > :23:04.United Kingdom. But just pretending that context problems have some
:23:05. > :23:08.simple solution that you can fix in an afternoon, almost beggars belief.
:23:09. > :23:13.It cannot be as easy as you have said, otherwise they would be
:23:14. > :23:17.looking at it. They don't want to leave anyway, Mrs May does not want
:23:18. > :23:21.to leave. It is all about delay and delay. All of this stuff about
:23:22. > :23:26.tariffs, it's a two-way street. They sell us far more than we sell them.
:23:27. > :23:31.Why would they want to put tariffs on? Let's talk about the tariffs.
:23:32. > :23:39.Let's talk about the deal that can be done. Labour say they want the
:23:40. > :23:44.exact same benefits as we currently have as members of the single market
:23:45. > :23:47.and the customs union - how is that possible, to have the exact same
:23:48. > :23:52.benefits? I think Keir Starmer is setting the right test. If that is a
:23:53. > :23:57.test, then the UK is probably going to fail it? It's the right test
:23:58. > :24:02.because the single market matters to us all. That characterisation, that
:24:03. > :24:06.we make stuff here and we trade it with people who make stuff in other
:24:07. > :24:09.countries, that's not how manufacturing works these days. We
:24:10. > :24:13.have got high value chains with goods made across borders, not
:24:14. > :24:17.within borders. The idea that you could sort out customs arrangements
:24:18. > :24:20.for high-value manufacturing like that in an afternoon, that is an
:24:21. > :24:25.insult to my constituents and their jobs. And I would ask you, next time
:24:26. > :24:30.you come up with nonsense like that, to think about the impact of that on
:24:31. > :24:34.people who work in my constituency, who make goods across borders, not
:24:35. > :24:37.within them, and need a much better attitude from the British
:24:38. > :24:41.government. What happens if we haven't got an arrangement which is
:24:42. > :24:45.agreed with the EU, when goods are going to be exported into the EU and
:24:46. > :24:48.they want to have custom officials at the borders to check the
:24:49. > :24:53.standards, the regulations of those goods, and maybe the French official
:24:54. > :24:56.only rocks up on a Monday and Tuesday, and you arrive on a
:24:57. > :25:00.Wednesday, what will that do to business? First of all, if they have
:25:01. > :25:04.declined our offer of tariff free trade... I'm not talking about
:25:05. > :25:10.tariffs, I'm going on Alison McGovern's point, which is the
:25:11. > :25:13.nontariff barriers, the things like the standardisation that currently
:25:14. > :25:17.exists as part of the EU, how would you deal with that? Part of the
:25:18. > :25:21.offer that we can make is that we continue on exactly the same terms
:25:22. > :25:26.regarding trade. If they refuse that, and we go on WTO, then we
:25:27. > :25:29.would be in the same position as China, Canada, Australia, New
:25:30. > :25:32.Zealand and the other countries that import and export with the European
:25:33. > :25:37.Union. So we will be in a worse position than we are at the moment.
:25:38. > :25:43.The biggest traders with the EU are countries like China... You're
:25:44. > :25:47.trying to say that you will put us in a worse position than the one we
:25:48. > :25:50.are in at the moment as part of the single market is. That's what
:25:51. > :25:56.matters. Let me just come back to this, Mark Field, about the exact
:25:57. > :26:00.same benefits. Because Labour have made this statement today but David
:26:01. > :26:03.Davis made a similar statement, when he said, I want a deal for
:26:04. > :26:09.frictionless trade, Theresa May said those words, and... It is a nearly
:26:10. > :26:14.impossible task, isn't it? No, in some sectors, that will work. When
:26:15. > :26:18.Theresa May spoke about the idea of no deal, it was to get a sense of
:26:19. > :26:23.clarity and certainty, that that is the baseline. Obviously, there are
:26:24. > :26:27.going to be sectors and parts of the colour me where we will be expecting
:26:28. > :26:30.to get considerably more. I think what is interesting, and it is
:26:31. > :26:34.something which perhaps my Brexiteer friends in the Tory party do not
:26:35. > :26:39.want to hear too much of, but it is, taking all of this legislation onto
:26:40. > :26:42.the British statute book, I bet a minuscule ocean of that will have
:26:43. > :26:46.been appealed within ten years. In other words, we're going to be
:26:47. > :26:49.taking on quite a lot of that legislation, not least because a lot
:26:50. > :26:53.of it we were at the forefront of putting into play. And also, and
:26:54. > :26:59.this is why this will be a long-term negotiation... Be on the two years?
:27:00. > :27:03.No, we must be out within the two years because we do not want the
:27:04. > :27:06.next general election to be a proxy second referendum. But we have all
:27:07. > :27:10.just been saying that it will take longer than that? No, we will be
:27:11. > :27:15.out. But there will be a lemons which will take longer. And I have a
:27:16. > :27:22.strong sense that there will be at a killer sectors where it will be in
:27:23. > :27:24.Britain's interest, and in the EU's interests, on biotechnology and
:27:25. > :27:29.pharmaceutical is, that we will be at the table, helping to look at the
:27:30. > :27:33.regulations which can then be incorporated straight into British
:27:34. > :27:37.law. I think that will get around many of the concerns that you have.
:27:38. > :27:42.But we are where we are, let's make it work. Alistair Carmichael, you
:27:43. > :27:45.want another referendum? I want a referendum on the deal when it is
:27:46. > :27:51.done. But that is really just another referendum? It is not, it is
:27:52. > :27:54.on the deal. We have had a referendum which said, we are
:27:55. > :27:59.leaving. It gave us a departure, it did not give us a destination. David
:28:00. > :28:03.Davis, not that long ago, was proposing exactly the same sort of
:28:04. > :28:07.thing. So just tell me, for the Liberal Democrats, if you say it is
:28:08. > :28:11.on the final deal, weaving the public the final say, in your mind,
:28:12. > :28:15.as a party, what is the ideal relationship with the EU
:28:16. > :28:18.post-Brexit, if, as you say, it is only on the final deal, you have
:28:19. > :28:24.accepted that Brexit is going to happen, how will it be any
:28:25. > :28:29.different? What we are prioritising above everything else is mentorship
:28:30. > :28:32.of the single market because that is where our economic interests lie,
:28:33. > :28:36.especially in the globalised economy. We can't turn the clock
:28:37. > :28:39.back to 1950. You have to be honest with people and say, that does mean
:28:40. > :28:44.that there have got to be compromises about the way in which
:28:45. > :28:48.people move across the boundaries. For Gerard Batten to say, you just
:28:49. > :28:52.can't have that, that's how you end up in the territory where you get no
:28:53. > :28:55.deal. You lost your only MP at the end of last week, or over the
:28:56. > :29:02.weekend, and your only elected voice in Parliament, so Ukip MEPs will
:29:03. > :29:06.soon be made redundant, how do you expect to influence Brexit? You say
:29:07. > :29:09.that, the important vote on the final deal will not be in
:29:10. > :29:13.Westminster, it will be the one in Brussels, because they will have the
:29:14. > :29:16.first vote, and they can reject it, in which case, we are all back to
:29:17. > :29:19.the drawing board in another two years' time. And that is a good
:29:20. > :29:21.point at which to stop this discussion.
:29:22. > :29:23.We know that the Government intends to take us out
:29:24. > :29:29.Theresa May said she was open to some sort of associate arrangement.
:29:30. > :29:46.This is what she had to say in January.
:29:47. > :29:51.I want Britain to be able to negotiate its own trade agreements.
:29:52. > :29:55.But I also want the referee trade with Europe and cross-border trade
:29:56. > :29:58.there to be as frictionless as possible. That means I do not want
:29:59. > :30:01.Britain to be part of the common commercial policy and I do not want
:30:02. > :30:06.us to be bound by the common external tariff. These are the
:30:07. > :30:09.elements of the customs union that prevent us from striking our own
:30:10. > :30:14.competence of trade agreements with other countries. But I do want us to
:30:15. > :30:22.have a customs agreement with the EU. Whether that means we must reach
:30:23. > :30:26.a completely new customs agreement, become an associate member of the
:30:27. > :30:28.customs union in some way, or remain a signatory to some elements of it,
:30:29. > :30:31.I hold no preconceived position. We're joined now by Henry Newman
:30:32. > :30:34.of the Open Europe think-tank which has launched a report today
:30:35. > :30:37.calling for the UK to pursue a fully independent trade policy
:30:38. > :30:44.outside the customs union. Welcome to the programme just for
:30:45. > :30:48.you, Theresa May does not go far enough, does she? Her clean break
:30:49. > :30:59.isn't hard enough for you, you don't even want associate membership with
:31:00. > :31:02.the customs union, is that correct? We're convinced having look at the
:31:03. > :31:06.evidence that we need to be clear that we need to get out of the
:31:07. > :31:08.customs union entirely. Right. That's the best way to maximise the
:31:09. > :31:12.opportunities from leaving the European Union. Under your plan, we
:31:13. > :31:16.leave the customs union with the rest in 2019? Yes. There is a
:31:17. > :31:19.possibility of a transition and that's a separate question. We
:31:20. > :31:25.should be out of the customs union enturl. No half-way in, half-way
:31:26. > :31:30.out. No deal. No Turkish-style deal. Is there a logic to that plan? There
:31:31. > :31:34.is a logic to all the plans. But it is too soon to say we should write
:31:35. > :31:37.off having at least the short-term being full members of the customs
:31:38. > :31:40.union and indeed then aspiring to the sort of arrangement that Theresa
:31:41. > :31:45.May made clear in that clip we have just heard. The reason I say that,
:31:46. > :31:48.actually a transition deal will be incredibly difficult to negotiate
:31:49. > :31:53.over the short time period and it may well be that we need to have an
:31:54. > :31:56.off-the-shelf option. The obvious off-the-shelf option doesn't apply
:31:57. > :31:59.to services in the way it does to goods, but it is to have a customs
:32:00. > :32:02.union arrangement and the thing about the customs union above all,
:32:03. > :32:06.you know, it could be very, very difficult along the lines that Jo
:32:07. > :32:10.pointed out earlier on in the programme, if you have a situation
:32:11. > :32:14.where there is a concern about the country of origin, on goods, this
:32:15. > :32:17.could be pretty nightmarish for many of our exporters if we don't get it
:32:18. > :32:20.right which is one of the reasons that Theresa May has left open the
:32:21. > :32:25.option as part of the negotiation. Right, hang on. Hang on. There is
:32:26. > :32:30.one thing on trade deals we need to get. Politicians love trade deals.
:32:31. > :32:33.Bureaucrats love them and civil servants love them. Get on and do
:32:34. > :32:37.trade and one of the things we have seen with the Trump administration
:32:38. > :32:46.in many ways has been the idea of a can do attitude. You can't do the
:32:47. > :32:51.trade deals until we've left the EU? There is never a country that we
:32:52. > :32:57.haven't done a trade deal with. Half in, half out, what's wrong with
:32:58. > :33:02.that? We all it the worst of all worlds. Why? You are unable to take
:33:03. > :33:05.the opportunities that leaving would entail. It is not just about signing
:33:06. > :33:09.trade deals. They are important, but using them can be too bureaucratic
:33:10. > :33:13.for business. If you have leave, you are able to reset your tariffs
:33:14. > :33:17.externally with the WTO, we would be able to lower all our tariffs, not
:33:18. > :33:26.just the tariffs through a trade deal. We are concerned that a second
:33:27. > :33:31.torial trade deal would be legally challengeable. Happens if you come
:33:32. > :33:34.out of the customs union in the way you're describing? Would there have
:33:35. > :33:38.to be any agreement between the EU and the UK? Well, let's say first of
:33:39. > :33:42.all there will be some costs of us leaving. How big are the cost? There
:33:43. > :33:47.was a leaked report over the weekend reported by the Sunday Times which
:33:48. > :33:50.points at costs up to 24%. Those figures were produced as we see it
:33:51. > :33:54.by the Treasury before the referendum last year. But if they
:33:55. > :34:01.are lower at 20%, they are huge costs? It is lookly to be very low.
:34:02. > :34:06.Can I say one thing? We do a great deal of trade with countries which
:34:07. > :34:13.we are not in a Free Trade Agreement with, let alone the customs union.
:34:14. > :34:17.The single biggest trading partner the UK is the US. The problem is who
:34:18. > :34:22.this hits and where? We already know that the parts of the country that
:34:23. > :34:26.voted leave. Leave in the north of England will be hardest hit by
:34:27. > :34:29.Brexit. Why? Because it is those areas that are dependant on
:34:30. > :34:33.manufacturing. Now people will tell you that manufacturing is a
:34:34. > :34:36.relatively small part of our economy, but actually a lot of the
:34:37. > :34:41.service sector in the north as well depends on the manufacturing
:34:42. > :34:47.industry to sell into it. So what I regret very much is this idea that
:34:48. > :34:50.what's good for Britain is good for everybody, everywhere because people
:34:51. > :34:55.aren't thinking through the fact that saying yes, there will be costs
:34:56. > :35:01.to this as though there will be costs, but on the whole, people will
:35:02. > :35:04.gain. That's not true. Some people will bear the burden and others will
:35:05. > :35:07.not. So that's not fair. You agree there will be costs. You haven't
:35:08. > :35:13.agreed what the costs will be, but you don't agree with 24%? Do you
:35:14. > :35:16.accept outside the customs union will mean more paperwork for
:35:17. > :35:21.exporters like British manufacturers. Possibly. So it won't
:35:22. > :35:25.be frictionless. So Theresa May isn't in your mind going to have
:35:26. > :35:29.frictionless trade? Not perfectly frictionless trade. Let's take a
:35:30. > :35:34.step back and look broadly. We have efficient trade with our non-EU
:35:35. > :35:40.partners. We are starting from a very positive base. Sure. We need to
:35:41. > :35:45.make sure our systems are as good as they possibly can be so goods can
:35:46. > :35:48.travel freely. I'm sure everybody in Parliament and ministers will be
:35:49. > :35:51.paying attention to this. You have conceded that there are going to be
:35:52. > :35:54.costs. That it won't be frictionless. You have said there
:35:55. > :35:59.will be opportunities and there shouldn't be a second torial deal
:36:00. > :36:03.for the car industry and people working in various manufacturing
:36:04. > :36:06.outputs in your constituency. Leaving the customs union will
:36:07. > :36:09.challenge companies with complex supply chains is what you say in
:36:10. > :36:13.your report? Yes. You are talking about the car industry being hit
:36:14. > :36:18.which is worth ?72 billion a year and employs 170,000 people. Is it
:36:19. > :36:21.worth it? I think to take a step back again, the decision was taken
:36:22. > :36:24.to leave the EU. If we're going to leave the EU, we need to be clear
:36:25. > :36:28.what that actually means. You think staying in the single market,
:36:29. > :36:34.staying in the customs union is the same as not having left in the first
:36:35. > :36:39.place. I accept there will be costs. Even Nigel Farage said we could be
:36:40. > :36:45.like Norway in the mid-. Referendum. That's outside the customs union. So
:36:46. > :36:50.he said we could be like... Turkey. And these countries, you know,
:36:51. > :36:55.operate within, they have a way of operating with the single market
:36:56. > :37:01.which I'm assuming you would call half in, half out and that's the
:37:02. > :37:04.worst of all possible worlds. People were told trading arrangements would
:37:05. > :37:09.be Bradley the same. Here we are afterwards saying we need to rip it
:37:10. > :37:18.all up and start again. I'm not saying that at all. And go after
:37:19. > :37:22.some notions... So the EU has good customs co-operation with
:37:23. > :37:25.Switzerland and Canada. The new Canada trade deal... But that was
:37:26. > :37:33.with the EU. The EU already has systems in place. There are
:37:34. > :37:37.precedents. I'm optimistic this can be achieved. When we look then at
:37:38. > :37:41.Northern Ireland, do you also accept there would have to be a customs
:37:42. > :37:45.border? There would have to be some degree of border. We think that
:37:46. > :37:49.border could be minimised. There will have to be a border for goods.
:37:50. > :37:55.That's not the same as a border for people. We see don't see any reason
:37:56. > :38:00.why the free movement of people that long predates European or Irish
:38:01. > :38:06.succession. One of the reasons that Ireland joined in 1973 at the height
:38:07. > :38:09.of the troubles was a recognition of the Inter dependence between the two
:38:10. > :38:11.economies. A special deal will have to be done. We're going to have to
:38:12. > :38:15.stop it there. So, it's going to be a big week
:38:16. > :38:17.here in Westminster. Today marks the deadline
:38:18. > :38:21.for a new Northern Ireland power-sharing executive
:38:22. > :38:24.to be formed. The prospect of a second Scottish
:38:25. > :38:27.independence referendum could be back on the cards tomorrow
:38:28. > :38:29.as members of the Scottish Parliament vote on a new
:38:30. > :38:32.independence referendum. The debate was suspended last
:38:33. > :38:34.Wednesday in the wake The Prime Minister will trigger
:38:35. > :38:43.Article 50 on Wednesday by sending a letter to the European Council
:38:44. > :38:45.formally declaring the UK's intention to leave
:38:46. > :38:48.the European Union. The Government is expected
:38:49. > :38:52.publish a White Paper on the Great Repeal Bill
:38:53. > :38:57.on Thursday, laying out a plan to ensure EU law no longer applies
:38:58. > :39:03.in the UK after Brexit. The House of Commons will rise
:39:04. > :39:06.on Thursday for Easter recess, but the House of Lords will continue
:39:07. > :39:12.working until next week. On Friday, the NHS will set
:39:13. > :39:15.out its plans for the next And the Green Party will begin
:39:16. > :39:18.their Spring Conference in Liverpool, which will continue
:39:19. > :39:20.over the weekend. We're joined now by Tom Newton Dunn
:39:21. > :39:28.of The Sun and by the political Welcome both of you. Tom, we have
:39:29. > :39:32.been talking about it, actually, Northern Ireland. If a new power
:39:33. > :39:36.sharing deal is not agreed today, which looks highly likely, what
:39:37. > :39:40.happens next? New elections? No, I don't think so. I think the honest
:39:41. > :39:44.answer is not very much at all which is rather common for Northern
:39:45. > :39:49.Ireland politics. Not a load happens quickly. As I understand it James
:39:50. > :39:53.Brokenshire won't go straight to new elections which is within his right
:39:54. > :39:57.to order. The law actually says there has to be new elections within
:39:58. > :40:01.a reasonable period of time. So I'm told he will use that reasonable
:40:02. > :40:06.period of time to carry on talking to try and create a deal. It appears
:40:07. > :40:12.the Government's tactics in this is to try and deny Sinn Fein the oxygen
:40:13. > :40:16.of drama and mellow drama even that they are trying to create with
:40:17. > :40:20.Brexit and Article 50 this week and it is in Sinn Fein's interests who
:40:21. > :40:23.want a united Ireland to try and create the impression so the
:40:24. > :40:28.Government say, that everything is chaotic and everything is up in the
:40:29. > :40:30.air and they need to start considering dramatic new
:40:31. > :40:33.constitutional arrangements such as a referendum on uniting Ireland. The
:40:34. > :40:38.Government will do everything they can to avoid that. Jane, tomorrow
:40:39. > :40:40.SNPs will vote on a motion allowing the Scottish Government to open
:40:41. > :40:44.negotiations with Westminster on the timing of a fresh independence
:40:45. > :40:47.referendum. It's going to pass, do you think? It is. I mean the SNP
:40:48. > :40:51.together with the Greens have a majority over the other parties,
:40:52. > :40:54.Labour, the Tories and the Lib Dems. Obviously this debate was happening
:40:55. > :41:01.last Wednesday when the terror attack happened. It has been delayed
:41:02. > :41:04.until tomorrow. And it is a fore gone conclusion, I think it will
:41:05. > :41:08.pass and the pressure is on for Wednesday and Theresa May. Not the
:41:09. > :41:11.best timing for the Prime Minister, bearing in mind that's the day she
:41:12. > :41:15.is triggering Article 50? Theresa May loves to be in control and loves
:41:16. > :41:19.having everything her own way. When this happened two weeks ago, when
:41:20. > :41:23.Nicola Sturgeon announced she wanted a second referendum, this completely
:41:24. > :41:27.blew Theresa May off course and it is right on the eve of her
:41:28. > :41:34.triggering Article 50. She is not going to like it, but she has to
:41:35. > :41:39.stand her ground. Time will be taken up, of course, with her writing that
:41:40. > :41:42.letter to the EU council. Will we learn anything new in the letter?
:41:43. > :41:47.Will the EU learn anything new bearing in mind she set out what she
:41:48. > :41:52.wants to achieve in the Lancaster House speech? I'm told there might
:41:53. > :41:56.be a few bits new. Some new language certainly and perhaps a little bit
:41:57. > :42:01.more detail on what the Government would like to see from Brexit, but
:42:02. > :42:07.substantially, no. We have to the greater part the strategy as laid
:42:08. > :42:10.out in Lancaster House on single market, customs union, security
:42:11. > :42:15.co-operation, etcetera. What will be interesting is, I think, actually
:42:16. > :42:20.how the EU respondment far less so the actual letter albeit, its
:42:21. > :42:24.historical importance. From 12.30 onwards on Wednesday, the ball goes
:42:25. > :42:27.from London to Brussels and it's the moment of maximum danger really for
:42:28. > :42:30.Theresa May as you know, you and Jane have been saying, she likes
:42:31. > :42:35.control. On Wednesday, she loses control. Suddenly, it is for someone
:42:36. > :42:38.else to respond to all this and the Government is therefore hostage or a
:42:39. > :42:43.victim potentially of what the rest of the 27 then come up and have to
:42:44. > :42:48.respond to her. The focus Jane will move on to the Great Repeal Bill
:42:49. > :42:53.which in your mind does that give MPs an opportunity to voice any
:42:54. > :42:58.concerns that they might have or try and oppose the progress of Brexit?
:42:59. > :43:01.Yes. I mean they have, MPs who are against Brexit anyway have been,
:43:02. > :43:06.have had plenty of opportunity and they will take it again on Thursday
:43:07. > :43:11.when the White Paper is published. It is unfortunate that the Henry
:43:12. > :43:15.eighth powers, we talked about control, Theresa May still has
:43:16. > :43:19.control in Parliament. She has these Henry VIII powers that she can take
:43:20. > :43:22.back regulations and laws from Brussels and introduce them into
:43:23. > :43:26.British law. That is where she still has control and there will be a huge
:43:27. > :43:29.fuss over whether that's going to be allowed and whether Theresa May will
:43:30. > :43:30.be allowed to do that. Thank you very much. Have a good week. Thank
:43:31. > :43:36.you. Thank you. Now, we're used to stark
:43:37. > :43:38.divisions in politics. Labour and Conservative,
:43:39. > :43:39.left-wing and right-wing, But with electoral upsets
:43:40. > :43:43.in democracies across the world recently exposing fundamental
:43:44. > :43:45.divides in how people view themselves, is it time
:43:46. > :43:47.for a new way of thinking? The writer David Goodhart thinks
:43:48. > :43:49.he's found the answer. The familiar divide in British
:43:50. > :44:07.politics between left and right has been partly eclipsed in the past
:44:08. > :44:12.generation or so by increasingly significant value divides,
:44:13. > :44:15.between the people that I call the people from anywhere
:44:16. > :44:19.and the people from somewhere. The people from anywhere tend to be
:44:20. > :44:23.highly-educated and mobile, They have achieved identities based
:44:24. > :44:32.on educational and career success, that makes them pretty
:44:33. > :44:45.comfortable, well, anywhere. Somewheres tend to be more rooted,
:44:46. > :44:49.less well-educated. They value familiarity and security,
:44:50. > :44:54.and they have what's called more ascribed identities,
:44:55. > :44:58.that means identities based more around groups and places,
:44:59. > :45:03.which often means that their sense of themselves can be more easily
:45:04. > :45:07.discomfited by rapid change. 40 years ago, British
:45:08. > :45:10.common sense was basically Then, over the last generation
:45:11. > :45:15.and more, anywhere common We anywheres care about the world
:45:16. > :45:24.but can be blinded by We've often run things
:45:25. > :45:29.in our own interests and called it Take freedom of
:45:30. > :45:34.movement, for example. If you're a commercial lawyer,
:45:35. > :45:37.you can go and work in Paris or Berlin for a couple of years,
:45:38. > :45:40.you're not competing for your job If you work in a food
:45:41. > :45:46.factory, you are. All of this has alienated a lot
:45:47. > :45:49.of people, and I don't mean bigots and xenophobes,
:45:50. > :45:51.I mean people I call decent populists, people who value national
:45:52. > :45:53.sovereignty and are wary Many of them stopped voting
:45:54. > :46:02.in national elections but took their chance in the Brexit
:46:03. > :46:05.referendum to say, enough, your anyway version of openness
:46:06. > :46:08.is not working for us. Not surprisingly, the Leave victory
:46:09. > :46:11.left many anywheres wondering what kind of country
:46:12. > :46:16.they really lived in. Finding a new settlement
:46:17. > :46:18.between the two tribes, one that reconciles anywheres
:46:19. > :46:20.and somewheres into a common national story, is the task for
:46:21. > :46:41.politics for the next generation. What is your remedy for bringing the
:46:42. > :46:44.two sides together? Well, I think the group I call anywheres, the
:46:45. > :46:49.people who have dominated our politics and indeed policy for the
:46:50. > :46:54.last generation and more, need to take more account of the priorities
:46:55. > :47:01.and intuitions of the people I call somewheres, more than 50% of the
:47:02. > :47:05.population. Anywheres are 20% to 25% of the population. Either way, I
:47:06. > :47:09.have invented these labels but I have not invented the box, they are
:47:10. > :47:18.there in the surveys. But how should they take account of it? Well, the
:47:19. > :47:21.Brexit vote represents one shift, it shifts us back in a certain
:47:22. > :47:24.direction, but we don't want to have the instability. If people feel that
:47:25. > :47:32.their voices are not heard in day-to-day politics, then you get
:47:33. > :47:36.these... People lash out, and you might describe at least some of the
:47:37. > :47:38.people who voted Brexit is doing that, frustrated that they felt
:47:39. > :47:42.their voices were not heard in day-to-day politics. In order to
:47:43. > :47:49.overcome that instability, we need to bring those voices into... Turn
:47:50. > :47:53.rolls into responsible politicians. But are you saying the passage of
:47:54. > :47:59.progress should in some way be slowed down, if you look at some of
:48:00. > :48:02.the issues that people tribute to your somewhere thesis, people not
:48:03. > :48:06.feeling part of what's going on in terms of politics, that somehow in
:48:07. > :48:10.terms of globalisation, for instance, that you should slow down
:48:11. > :48:13.the passage of change and time? I think that's a very, very narrow
:48:14. > :48:18.definition of progress. You're implying that what anywheres think
:48:19. > :48:22.is in itself automatically a good thing. But just look at what has
:48:23. > :48:27.happened in the last generation or two, in terms of the policy areas
:48:28. > :48:30.that are so important. The way in which we have massively expanded
:48:31. > :48:35.higher education, and largely ignored, at least until recently,
:48:36. > :48:40.vocational and technical training, closed down all the polytechnics and
:48:41. > :48:44.turned them into universities in 1992. Look at the so-called
:48:45. > :48:48.knowledge economy, the very phrase, it's fine for highly educated
:48:49. > :48:52.people, meanwhile we have acquired this hourglass labour market, and
:48:53. > :48:56.all of those meddling jobs that gave lots of people status and decent
:48:57. > :49:01.income so shrunk. Well, you've been in power under a Tory government and
:49:02. > :49:04.a coalition government, so, to some extent, you are the presenter,
:49:05. > :49:09.representing your constituency, as, no doubt, the anywheres, can you do
:49:10. > :49:13.something about all of this? There was a certain amount of controversy
:49:14. > :49:19.when Theresa May said at the party conference, said that the sense of
:49:20. > :49:23.rootless people and rootless companies, using the international
:49:24. > :49:27.tax system to ensure they did not pay too much tax... Occupy London
:49:28. > :49:31.took place in my constituency five or six years ago, and I remember
:49:32. > :49:35.saying then, it struck me that there were a lot of middle-class,
:49:36. > :49:38.instinctively Tory voting people, who felt the rules of global
:49:39. > :49:43.capitalism were skewed against them. It a slightly prodrug provocative
:49:44. > :49:49.thesis, obviously, but in many ways, I think Theresa May's agenda is a
:49:50. > :49:53.recognition that the whole Tony Blair, a little bit is is over, and
:49:54. > :49:58.there is a sense of... That's the .4 Labour, you have been the losers.
:49:59. > :50:02.Even if the Conservatives, as Mark said, had not taken enough into
:50:03. > :50:06.account the views of those sorts of people, it is Labour that is nowhere
:50:07. > :50:11.in the polls with the answers, it seems? In one sense, David's
:50:12. > :50:16.analysis, I agree about the impact of low wages for a long time.
:50:17. > :50:20.Constituents who voted leave, most of them voted remain but a
:50:21. > :50:24.significant number of them did Vote Leave, and they say things like, to
:50:25. > :50:28.get rid of David Cameron, or to get money for the NHS. People did want
:50:29. > :50:32.to kick back against what they thought was an unfair system. But in
:50:33. > :50:36.another way, I profoundly disagree with this analysis, firstly because
:50:37. > :50:40.it is just mad to separate people into two groups. I'm sure your
:50:41. > :50:49.analysis is not quite as stark as that, but I probably used to count
:50:50. > :50:53.as a somewhere somebody who was born and grew up in my constituency and
:50:54. > :50:56.represent all my family, and then I went to university, I became an
:50:57. > :51:06.anywhere. I would urge you to read my book. Like I say, I did not just
:51:07. > :51:09.invented these categories. They are there in the data. Everybody is an
:51:10. > :51:14.individual and we all have combinations of anywhere and
:51:15. > :51:17.somewhere, and there is a whole group of in between is. Isn't the
:51:18. > :51:23.problem that for far too long, people in politics have gone, but at
:51:24. > :51:27.the data, there is this interesting different groups, let's try and
:51:28. > :51:30.marshal these different groups? Instead of saying, most people are
:51:31. > :51:35.individuals, most people by and large want money in their pocket.
:51:36. > :51:40.Obviously, at people can be donated by people from a certain kind of
:51:41. > :51:44.background, including people from somewhere backgrounds who have been
:51:45. > :51:47.very upwardly mobile. We have national social contracts and we
:51:48. > :51:54.have disregarded them, particularly employers. We had 8000 construction
:51:55. > :51:57.apprenticeships last year. We are meant to be building millions of
:51:58. > :52:01.houses, what has been going on? And on that, we will leave it hanging.
:52:02. > :52:03.In politics, the pen is mightier than the sword.
:52:04. > :52:06.Theresa May certainly thinks so - she says that the letter triggering
:52:07. > :52:08.Article 50 will be "one of the most important documents"
:52:09. > :52:13.Our Ellie takes a look at some of the other contenders for
:52:14. > :52:23.# I'm gonna sit right down and write myself a letter...
:52:24. > :52:26.Theresa May has plenty of practice writing important correspondence.
:52:27. > :52:29.One of her first job as PM was to pen four handwritten letters
:52:30. > :52:31.of last resort to the commanders of Britain's nuclear submarines.
:52:32. > :52:33.We don't know exactly what they say, obviously, but basically,
:52:34. > :52:36.they contain orders on what to do if the Government has
:52:37. > :52:38.been "incapacitated" because Britain has been destroyed.
:52:39. > :52:42.And sticking with nuclear Armageddon, it's those important
:52:43. > :52:45.letters that saved the world during the Cuban missile crisis.
:52:46. > :52:48.The Soviet leader, Nikita Khrushchev, sent
:52:49. > :52:51.a telegram to the US offering to dismantle its Cuban missile bases
:52:52. > :52:54.if President Kennedy lifted its naval blockade
:52:55. > :52:58.on the island and promised not to invade Cuba.
:52:59. > :53:02.Then, he sent a second letter demanding the dismantling
:53:03. > :53:07.President Kennedy agreed publicly to the first letter,
:53:08. > :53:13.As with so many things in this life, less is more.
:53:14. > :53:16.When Labour lost the 2010 election, the then Chief Secretary
:53:17. > :53:19.to the Treasury, Liam Byrne, left a note to his successor that
:53:20. > :53:29.Mr Byrne meant it as a joke, but felt the weight of his words
:53:30. > :53:32.when they were repeatedly used to beat Labour over the head
:53:33. > :53:35."Dear Chief Secretary, I'm afraid there is no money..."
:53:36. > :53:37.It's more than a decade since Prince Charles' black spider
:53:38. > :53:40.memos, so-called not because they were about creepy
:53:41. > :53:44.crawlies, but because of his handwriting skills.
:53:45. > :53:47.The letters he wrote privately to Labour ministers were published
:53:48. > :53:50.after a series of court cases and concerns by some
:53:51. > :53:54.critics that he was trying to influence government policy -
:53:55. > :53:59.This year sees the 100th anniversary of the Balfour declaration.
:54:00. > :54:02.Boris Johnson showed Israel's Prime Minister,
:54:03. > :54:05.Binyamin Netanyahu, around the room where it was written.
:54:06. > :54:08.The letter was the first significant declaration by a world power
:54:09. > :54:14.in favour of a Jewish national home in Palestine.
:54:15. > :54:19.We're joined now by the historian Kate Williams.
:54:20. > :54:26.Do you agree that the letter that will be sent trigger in Article 50
:54:27. > :54:30.will go down as the greatest in history, as Theresa May implies? I
:54:31. > :54:34.think it certainly will. Whether or not it's the greatest, I think we
:54:35. > :54:38.will see how final it was. A lot of the letters we were talking about in
:54:39. > :54:41.that VT, they change history Mr Love about four declaration, there was no
:54:42. > :54:46.going back after that, there was going to be an independent state for
:54:47. > :54:51.the Jewish people. Whether not Theresa May's letter will be able to
:54:52. > :54:56.be altered, which is of course what the Remains I'd want... But if the
:54:57. > :55:00.Ukip conditions are kept to, then it will be the most historic I think in
:55:01. > :55:06.recent British history. And they are still powerful, letters, aren't
:55:07. > :55:13.they? If you think we are operating in a digital age, politically,
:55:14. > :55:16.letters would still hold that much influence and sway? They do, and
:55:17. > :55:21.it's fascinating to read them. You can read the Kennedy-Khrushchev
:55:22. > :55:25.letters, and it is fascinating to think these two men, with so many
:55:26. > :55:28.lives hanging in the balance, are communicating with each other in
:55:29. > :55:32.this very polite way, dear Mr President... Although we think of
:55:33. > :55:35.the huge networks of power, sometimes it does come down to the
:55:36. > :55:39.communication between two individuals, in that case two men.
:55:40. > :55:42.Do you think letter will go down as one of the most important in
:55:43. > :55:46.history? You have touched on something, we live in this world of
:55:47. > :55:53.tweeting and texting and actually, letters are now few and far between.
:55:54. > :55:56.Can you remember how to write?! Scrawling away, spiderlike! One of
:55:57. > :56:00.the interesting things about history, whether it is political
:56:01. > :56:04.history or whatever, it is going to be so difficult to piece it together
:56:05. > :56:08.in the way that we were able to in the past from those primary sources.
:56:09. > :56:11.So much of it now is now done electronic live. So it will be an
:56:12. > :56:19.important letter from that regard. I have been to the cue archives, which
:56:20. > :56:23.are unbelievable, it is an amazing look back into history. In the
:56:24. > :56:26.future, people will be scouring over tweets and interpreting the language
:56:27. > :56:32.of a particular WhatsApp message or whatever. Food for thought! Letters
:56:33. > :56:37.obviously get people into trouble, and they are written there and
:56:38. > :56:41.remain for ever so. We touched on the Liam Byrne debtor at the time,
:56:42. > :56:46.when he said, there is no money left. It was left as a joke but he
:56:47. > :56:51.has said he regrets writing it! He really does. Sometimes a joke can
:56:52. > :56:55.fall flat! It was pretty disastrous and an easy thing for David Cameron
:56:56. > :56:59.to use in the campaign. I think we know now that all e-mails are not
:57:00. > :57:05.private, any of our e-mails could be used. Of course we saw even texts,
:57:06. > :57:08.with the example of the Surrey sweetheart deal being talked about
:57:09. > :57:13.by Mr Corbyn, for example. But we still sometimes think there is
:57:14. > :57:17.intimacy in a letter, a little note that you leave on the desk after you
:57:18. > :57:25.go, by gentlemen's agreement, which of course was not the case. But
:57:26. > :57:29.there is formality as well. They are intimate, but also terribly
:57:30. > :57:33.official? Yes. And I think they do mean more. For example, the Prince
:57:34. > :57:38.Charles letters, they do mean more than an e-mail because somebody has
:57:39. > :57:44.taken the effort to put pen to paper. I think that even though we
:57:45. > :57:47.are in a digital world, the biggest and most important things
:57:48. > :57:52.politically happen through letters. Any letters that you have written,
:57:53. > :58:00.that you regret? None that I regret. I would take Kate's point on board,
:58:01. > :58:04.some of them you can reread with any mail, which you cannot with a
:58:05. > :58:17.letter. I like the idea of a letter, handwritten in particular. I found
:58:18. > :58:22.some rate letters from constituents, or famously a gentleman who once
:58:23. > :58:25.wrote to me, after a media appearance, telling me that
:58:26. > :58:31.unfortunately my top was too low, which was a particularly helpful
:58:32. > :58:39.letter! Fashion advice! From angry of Tunbridge Wells! Next time I will
:58:40. > :58:42.have to talk about the style of writing, I am always fascinated by
:58:43. > :58:44.the way that people write these letters. Thank you for coming in.
:58:45. > :58:47.There's just time before we go to find out the answer to our quiz.
:58:48. > :58:49.The question was - what is Nigel Farage
:58:50. > :58:52.a) Advising Nicola Sturgeon over Scottish Indepedence?
:58:53. > :58:55.b) Splitting California into East California
:58:56. > :59:00.c) Helping Catalonia to break from Spain?
:59:01. > :59:03.Or d) working with the Dalai Lama to have more autonomy for Tibet?
:59:04. > :59:18.I think it might be the Catalunian option. And what do you think? Anger
:59:19. > :59:21.to go with California, because Nigel Farage seems to be obsessed with
:59:22. > :59:24.America. And you would be right! California it is! You win the prize!
:59:25. > :59:32.I'll be here at noon tomorrow with all the big
:59:33. > :59:35.Do join me then. Bye-bye.