:00:37. > :00:41.Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics.
:00:42. > :00:47.Jeremy Corbyn declares he's not a pacifist as he pledges a robust,
:00:48. > :00:48.independent foreign policy and "no hand-holding" with US
:00:49. > :00:54.President Trump lays into the former director of the FBI,
:00:55. > :00:57.saying he's a showboat and a grandstander, as he attempts
:00:58. > :01:00.to close down the row over his sacking of James Comey.
:01:01. > :01:02.The opinion polls failed to predict David Cameron's general
:01:03. > :01:11.So can we trust the polls this time around?
:01:12. > :01:13.And how will Brexit Britain fare in tomorrow's Eurovision
:01:14. > :01:26.And with us for the whole of the programme today, the Guardian
:01:27. > :01:29.And Christian May, editor of City AM.
:01:30. > :01:33.Let's kick off with the news overnight from Washington -
:01:34. > :01:38.that Donald Trump has described the former director of the FBI
:01:39. > :01:40.whom he fired earlier this week as a "showboat"
:01:41. > :01:48.In an interview with NBC News, President Trump also said
:01:49. > :01:52.-- talked about his reasons for firing James Comey.
:01:53. > :01:55.But regardless of recommendation I was going to fire Comey, knowing
:01:56. > :01:59.And, in fact, when I decided to just do
:02:00. > :02:02.it, I said to myself, I said, you know, this Russia thing
:02:03. > :02:05.with Trump and Russia is a made up story, it is
:02:06. > :02:10.an excuse by the Democrats for having lost an election.
:02:11. > :02:18.He is a showboat, he is a grandstander. The FBI has been in
:02:19. > :02:23.turmoil. Everybody knows that. I know I am not under investigation,
:02:24. > :02:29.me, personally. I am not talking about campaigns or anything else. I
:02:30. > :02:34.am not under investigation. Polly Toynbee, your first impressions of
:02:35. > :02:39.that interview? You always think you cannot be more shocked by Trump and
:02:40. > :02:43.then you are and what he has done is utterly astounding. He has sacked
:02:44. > :02:50.everybody involved in investigating the Russian links with his campaign.
:02:51. > :02:55.This sacking is utterly disgraceful and extraordinary. He has given
:02:56. > :03:01.different reasons why. In the first place, it was the investigation into
:03:02. > :03:07.Hillary Clinton and now he said it is this Trump, Russia thing. What
:03:08. > :03:13.worries you about the interview? Polly said, he has changed the story
:03:14. > :03:21.for the reasons of sacking James Comey. He has admitted that he had
:03:22. > :03:26.dinner and conversations with James Comey where he asked the FBI
:03:27. > :03:30.director was he under investigation, which is certainly unethical, if not
:03:31. > :03:35.illegal. There are fresh questions about conversations he had with
:03:36. > :03:40.James Comey but it is too early to say what lies at the root of this is
:03:41. > :03:43.a conspiracy or incompetence. It is difficult to tell with Trump which
:03:44. > :03:49.of those factors is the great motivator. It could be he is erratic
:03:50. > :03:55.and unpredictable. If he fired the head of the FBI because he felt he
:03:56. > :03:59.was getting too close to him, it is extraordinary to assume it would put
:04:00. > :04:05.the issue away. That is the question, it will not end the row.
:04:06. > :04:08.How does he get himself, extricate himself from this situation? It
:04:09. > :04:15.depends whether the investigation continues and what it turns up with.
:04:16. > :04:25.I was in Washington reporting, my earlier jobs, at the time of
:04:26. > :04:29.Watergate when Archibald Cox was sacked by Nixon and it feels like
:04:30. > :04:35.that, the act of someone desperate and desperately investigation should
:04:36. > :04:40.not continue. If he has nothing to hide, let it continue. Although it
:04:41. > :04:43.fits with the pattern of being unpredictable, of being erratic, of
:04:44. > :04:49.changing his mind, and of course he still denies he has any direct
:04:50. > :04:57.dealings, properties in Russia. We'll bat continued to hold, that
:04:58. > :05:02.line? And Washington, is it really from this? Will they come after
:05:03. > :05:07.Trump over this? I think a lot of people are. His critics, of which
:05:08. > :05:15.there are many, are determined to draw the Watergate comparison. It
:05:16. > :05:22.was fun to note the president Nixon library saying Nixon never fired the
:05:23. > :05:28.head of the FBI. This will run and run. Whether there will be fresh
:05:29. > :05:31.earrings, legal action taken against the president or those around him
:05:32. > :05:39.depends. Trump obviously feels he is insulated. He must feel that. He has
:05:40. > :05:42.that confidence. Whether it is misplaced... Whether you put it down
:05:43. > :05:48.to his personality or whether he thinks there is nothing here, it is
:05:49. > :05:52.politically motivated. I think he is insulated by his support base and
:05:53. > :05:56.they will believe anything he says, he says fake news and a ground swell
:05:57. > :06:01.of people who voted for him will back him, whatever he says, even if
:06:02. > :06:04.he says one thing one day and be opposite the next. Extraordinary.
:06:05. > :06:11.That is true of popular support, but it might not hold in Washington.
:06:12. > :06:13.What he calls the swamp. The question for today
:06:14. > :06:36.is how much is the general At the end of the show we will see
:06:37. > :06:39.if Polly and Christian can work out the numbers and perhaps we will do a
:06:40. > :06:40.whip round and see if they will donate.
:06:41. > :06:42.Jeremy Corbyn has been giving a speech setting out his views
:06:43. > :06:46.The Labour leader is a former chairman of the Stop The War
:06:47. > :06:49.But today, he's been explaining the circumstances
:06:50. > :06:53.in which he would countenance military action.
:06:54. > :06:58.In his speech, Jeremy Corbyn declared, "I am not a pacifist."
:06:59. > :07:01.He argued that military force can be justified if it's used
:07:02. > :07:03.as a genuine last resort and in compliance
:07:04. > :07:10.He also took aim at the foreign policy of recent years.
:07:11. > :07:15.He said the war on terror has failed.
:07:16. > :07:18.And he said that the "bomb first, talk later" approach to security
:07:19. > :07:27.Jeremy Corbyn turned his guns on both Theresa May and Donald Trump.
:07:28. > :07:32.He said there will be no more hand-holding with Donald Trump
:07:33. > :07:36.And the UK will pursue an independent foreign policy.
:07:37. > :07:40.But the Conservatives have responded to Mr Corbyn's speech,
:07:41. > :07:42.saying that the Labour leader has "spent a lifetime trying
:07:43. > :07:55.Jeremy Corbyn has been giving his speech at the Chatham House think
:07:56. > :08:00.tank. The War on terror has been driven, which has driven these
:08:01. > :08:04.interventions has not succeeded. It has not increased security at home,
:08:05. > :08:10.in fact many would say just the opposite. It has caused
:08:11. > :08:13.destabilisation and devastation abroad and last September, the House
:08:14. > :08:19.of Commons foreign affairs Select Committee published a report on the
:08:20. > :08:27.Libyan war, which David Cameron promoted. They concluded the
:08:28. > :08:30.intervention led to political and economic collapse, humanitarian and
:08:31. > :08:35.migrant crises and fuelled the rise of Isis in Africa and the Middle
:08:36. > :08:41.East. Jeremy Corbyn. We have been joined from Leeds.
:08:42. > :08:44.for Peace and Disarmament, Fabian Hamilton.
:08:45. > :08:52.Jeremy Corbyn said he would do everything necessary to protect this
:08:53. > :08:55.country. What does that mean? It means not leaving the country
:08:56. > :09:00.defenceless and ensuring the Armed Forces are properly supplied and
:09:01. > :09:04.armed bandit mean spending the 2% we are committed to through Nato on the
:09:05. > :09:10.armed services and events. Defence of this country is safe with the
:09:11. > :09:14.Labour Party and always has been and always will be. What about a strike
:09:15. > :09:19.against the leader of so-called Islamic State? Jeremy Corbyn was
:09:20. > :09:23.asked if he would authorise such a strike if the British security
:09:24. > :09:26.forces got that intelligence and he did not answer the question. Would
:09:27. > :09:31.that be necessary to protect the country in your mind? It is a
:09:32. > :09:36.theoretical situation and it is hard to say unless you are faced with
:09:37. > :09:42.intelligence and facts. It is all very well asking if you would do
:09:43. > :09:46.this in the circumstances but nobody knows the circumstances and it is
:09:47. > :09:50.impossible to answer. If he is saying a Labour government would do
:09:51. > :09:54.everything to protect the UK in Britain, is a member of Isis in
:09:55. > :09:58.Syria was planning a terrorist act on the streets of this country,
:09:59. > :10:02.would Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn authorise a strike on that
:10:03. > :10:08.individual? It is not that unrealistic. I cannot answer that
:10:09. > :10:19.question. Why not? Because I do not know the circumstances or
:10:20. > :10:22.intelligence but I cannot see why Jeremy Corbyn would react in any
:10:23. > :10:24.other way to any other Prime Minister Labour or Conservative
:10:25. > :10:26.given the threat. He would do what David Cameron did in that situation?
:10:27. > :10:30.Could you repeat the question? A Prime Minister Corbyn would do the
:10:31. > :10:34.same as David Cameron did when he reported the drone strike that
:10:35. > :10:39.killed high-level people in Isis. Why are we talking about these
:10:40. > :10:44.theoretical issues? We have no idea what the circumstances may be, what
:10:45. > :10:48.the intelligence would show, what the military advice would be given
:10:49. > :10:53.to the Prime Minister of the day. Jeremy Corbyn along with every
:10:54. > :10:58.member of the Labour Party and MP holds the defence of this country as
:10:59. > :11:02.a highest possible priority and we will do everything to defend the
:11:03. > :11:06.people of Great Britain. People want to be able to trust a future Labour
:11:07. > :11:11.government that they would do the sorts of things people would
:11:12. > :11:15.consider necessary to protect this country. Jeremy Corbyn criticised
:11:16. > :11:21.what he called unilateral military action which he said has become
:11:22. > :11:25.almost routine. Explain, does that mean a future Labour government
:11:26. > :11:30.would always need for UN backing for any military action? It depends on
:11:31. > :11:35.the circumstances. We are a member of Nato and know the Nato treaty
:11:36. > :11:39.means an attack on one is an attack on all and I would not have thought
:11:40. > :11:43.if one member was attacked and the treaty was invoked we would
:11:44. > :11:48.necessarily go to the UN, it depends on the circumstances. The defence of
:11:49. > :11:54.the country is a priority for any party who wants to hold power and
:11:55. > :11:59.any government elected to power. If you criticise unilateral action, the
:12:00. > :12:03.logic of the argument says Britain would not be prepared to take
:12:04. > :12:10.military action, even if the UK was under threat in the unilateral way,
:12:11. > :12:14.and by leaving that not clear, does that give someone like Vladimir
:12:15. > :12:20.Putin a veto on the UK's foreign policy? Russia is a permanent member
:12:21. > :12:24.of the UN Security Council, it does not respect our veto in Syria for
:12:25. > :12:31.example, are you saying we should always respect there is? We should
:12:32. > :12:36.not embark on the kind of approach in the past, that Jeremy quite
:12:37. > :12:40.rightly says means dropping the bombs first and asking questions
:12:41. > :12:44.later. Innocent people have been killed as a result of some of these
:12:45. > :12:47.strikes and conflicts and that is something we want to avoid. If we
:12:48. > :12:55.can see a conflict coming we need to do everything through international
:12:56. > :12:58.forums including the UN and Nato to de-escalate the situation and stop
:12:59. > :13:02.the conflict happening in the first place. Do you think talking and
:13:03. > :13:07.using the vehicle of the UN has de-escalated the Syrian crisis? It
:13:08. > :13:12.hasn't, but the UN has an important role there and the problem with
:13:13. > :13:16.Syria, the crisis is so complicated it is almost impossible to pick it
:13:17. > :13:21.apart but the only solution will be through the United Nations. I cannot
:13:22. > :13:27.see any other solution unless Turkey, Iran, Russia find a
:13:28. > :13:33.conclusion between Syria and the Isis factions and other warlords.
:13:34. > :13:39.You can only see the UN as a viable channel, as you say, to direct
:13:40. > :13:42.foreign policy or military intervention, but what about
:13:43. > :13:48.humanitarian intervention? You remember Tony Blair intervened to
:13:49. > :13:51.stop Slobodan Milosevic to attacking civilians in Kosovo without the
:13:52. > :13:57.backing of the UN. With Jeremy Corbyn do it for humanitarian
:13:58. > :14:00.reasons I smirk I think this country has a good record in humanitarian
:14:01. > :14:05.interventions and provided parliament is consulted and approved
:14:06. > :14:09.it, I see no reason why we should not take those interventions on if
:14:10. > :14:13.it is for humanitarian purposes to save lives. We are good at doing
:14:14. > :14:18.this had we have shown an example to other countries. Is Jeremy Corbyn
:14:19. > :14:22.saying today what he personally thinks, or is he saying what he
:14:23. > :14:25.feels he needs to save from a collective point of view for the
:14:26. > :14:34.Labour Party? He seems to have changed his mind on Nato and defence
:14:35. > :14:38.spending. Join every campaign, fight all the cuts except those in the
:14:39. > :14:44.Armed Forces where we want to see a fume or cuts taking place and no
:14:45. > :14:49.more nuclear weapons. Nato was founded to promote a Cold War with
:14:50. > :14:53.the Soviet Union. That resulted in the formation of the Warsaw Pact.
:14:54. > :14:59.Come the end of the Cold War in 1990, that should have been the time
:15:00. > :15:05.for Nato to shut up shop, give up, go home and go away.
:15:06. > :15:14.So, does Jeremy Corbyn still think that Nato should shut up and go
:15:15. > :15:18.away? He wasn't the leader of the Labour Party when he said that. He
:15:19. > :15:23.is now the leader of a large party that makes its decisions
:15:24. > :15:27.collectively. So has he changed his mind, or does he still hold that
:15:28. > :15:30.view but he has either been forced or converted himself to thinking
:15:31. > :15:34.that that is not the right policy to represent the Labour Party. He may
:15:35. > :15:40.well have changed his mind, he may well still hold the same views. You
:15:41. > :15:43.don't know? Of course I don't know, but what is very clear is that when
:15:44. > :15:46.you are the leader of a political party, you have to go along with the
:15:47. > :15:51.democratic decision and the collective view, and the collective
:15:52. > :15:54.view is that we support Nato and we support remaining a member of Nato,
:15:55. > :16:04.and that is what Jeremy Ayre is promoting. I have my own particular
:16:05. > :16:06.views about disarmament and nuclear weapons, but we accept the
:16:07. > :16:12.democratic decision and we will carry it out. But there are some
:16:13. > :16:17.decisions that only a Prime Minister can make, and if you are putting
:16:18. > :16:19.yourself forward to be a Prime Minister, your personal views are
:16:20. > :16:23.important because it goes to the heart of your personal credibility
:16:24. > :16:28.when you are standing in front of voters. 2014, three years ago,
:16:29. > :16:31.Corbyn saying very passionately that Nato should shut up shop, and saying
:16:32. > :16:36.that the only cuts that he would support would be cut to the Armed
:16:37. > :16:42.Forces, a direct contradiction of what you are saying in your
:16:43. > :16:46.manifesto. Are we really saying that when somebody says something three
:16:47. > :16:52.years ago, they are not entitled to change their mind given how very
:16:53. > :17:01.huge change Jeremy bowl smack role is now -- Jeremy's role is now... So
:17:02. > :17:06.in the last three years he has had a radical change of heart having held
:17:07. > :17:10.those views all his life? Of course he has, because he never had the
:17:11. > :17:13.prospect of being the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, and now that
:17:14. > :17:17.prospect is within view so you have to change your mind and take a much
:17:18. > :17:23.broader view of what your role now is. But you did say you one sure
:17:24. > :17:26.whether he had changed is my door was doing it the democratic will of
:17:27. > :17:30.the Labour Party. Will people believe what you are saying? Will
:17:31. > :17:34.people trust that if he became prime Estep he would hold to those
:17:35. > :17:39.policies in the manifesto, or would he under a copper hence it Strategic
:17:40. > :17:44.Defence Review try and go back to the policies that he actually
:17:45. > :17:47.believes? Jeremy Irons a Democrat like all of us, and he will go along
:17:48. > :17:54.with the democratic view of the Labour Party. There are decisions
:17:55. > :17:59.made in the seclusion of 10 Downing Street, but they are made with a
:18:00. > :18:03.whole lot of advisers, advice about the common good, the defence of the
:18:04. > :18:07.realm, the important issues that a Prime Minister must deal with, and
:18:08. > :18:12.it seems to me that you are trying to personalise this into the persona
:18:13. > :18:22.of Jeremy Corbyn. But he wants to be Prime Minister, that is fair. But
:18:23. > :18:25.you have to see that his views will be different than when he was a
:18:26. > :18:28.backbencher was speaking for himself and his constituents alone, and that
:18:29. > :18:34.is a different point of view tour party leader aspiring to be the
:18:35. > :18:38.leader of this country. Your reaction on that, that goes to the
:18:39. > :18:44.very heart of the matter. Can people trust Jeremy Corbyn and what he is
:18:45. > :18:47.saying today as Labour leader and a future Prime Minister in this
:18:48. > :18:50.election campaign, or will they refer to the views that he has held
:18:51. > :18:56.over the last 30 years or so in parliament? It is a difficult line
:18:57. > :18:59.to hold, that line between what he has been saying passionately for 30
:19:00. > :19:04.years on the position he has now been forced to adopt as he leads a
:19:05. > :19:09.political party. The public will rightly look at 30 years of speeches
:19:10. > :19:12.and 30 years, decades of dubious association with people who have
:19:13. > :19:16.made this country harm, one only has to think about his quite vocal
:19:17. > :19:20.support for the bombs and the bullets of the IRA, a time when he
:19:21. > :19:24.clearly felt that the military action or armed action was justified
:19:25. > :19:27.in that conflict, so he can make a speech today at the head of a
:19:28. > :19:31.general election in which he seeks to reassure people that he does wish
:19:32. > :19:34.to protect the country, but if you have spent 30 years positioning
:19:35. > :19:36.yourself on the other side of that argument, people will rightly
:19:37. > :19:42.question your sincerity. Do you think this is a difficult area for
:19:43. > :19:47.Jeremy Corbyn to appear authentic? He has always said, I stand by the
:19:48. > :19:51.principles I have always held. It is difficult, but what he said today
:19:52. > :19:55.would actually be very popular if it weren't him say it. Almost
:19:56. > :19:58.everything he has said, people would agree with. They don't want to be
:19:59. > :20:01.close to Trump, they don't want any more involvement with the Middle
:20:02. > :20:06.East, they do regard it as having been a disaster, they don't see
:20:07. > :20:11.solutions in Syria or any reason why us adding a few bombs is going to
:20:12. > :20:14.solve that intractable problem. Unfortunately because of his back
:20:15. > :20:21.story and the clips you have shown, people weren't trusted coming from
:20:22. > :20:25.him. Like a labour's manifesto, nothing in there that would be
:20:26. > :20:28.unpopular. Before we go onto the front pages of the papers, do we
:20:29. > :20:35.know anything more about Theresa May's foreign policy? As Polly
:20:36. > :20:40.Toynbee said, cuddling up, as people see it, to Trump, will not be a
:20:41. > :20:45.popular image with British voters. In my view the special relationship
:20:46. > :20:48.is special because it endures no matter who is in office on either
:20:49. > :20:51.side of the Atlantic, so I don't think she was wrong to go to
:20:52. > :20:57.Washington. She might regret the fact that Trump grabbed her hand,
:20:58. > :21:01.but I imagine there were Tory cheers were Jeremy Corbyn says he will talk
:21:02. > :21:04.about defence policy in the election campaign... Former military leaders
:21:05. > :21:12.have criticised Theresa May for saying that this 2% of GDP de being
:21:13. > :21:16.spent on our defences is accounting deceit. There is a roe going on that
:21:17. > :21:21.is more important. We all know what Jeremy Corbyn thinks about defence,
:21:22. > :21:35.it is the one thing that everybody knows. But there is a big argument
:21:36. > :21:36.going on, the military of defence -- the Ministry of Defence is
:21:37. > :21:41.overspending dramatically, and they want a new strategic review. He says
:21:42. > :21:44.he doesn't want one because he knows it will uncover the extent to which
:21:45. > :21:48.they are in bad trouble, that is the more important story.
:21:49. > :21:52.Let's see how some of today's papers covered Labour's manifesto launch.
:21:53. > :21:54.Christian's newspaper City AM says "Never mind the '70s,
:21:55. > :21:57.Corbyn will take us back to the 1940s", referring
:21:58. > :21:59.to the level of state intervention promised in the manifesto.
:22:00. > :22:02.Polly's paper, the Guardian, has a picture of Jeremy Corbyn
:22:03. > :22:05.on the front page and calls it a radical manifesto,
:22:06. > :22:07.which the Labour leader says will transform lives.
:22:08. > :22:15.The Times claims the manifesto has promoted an internal wcivil
:22:16. > :22:21.And it also has a picture of our colleague Giles Wooltorton,
:22:22. > :22:24.the BBC cameraman whose foot was run over by Mr Corbyn's car yesterday.
:22:25. > :22:28.And The Sun also has a picture of Giles on its front page, alongside
:22:29. > :22:30.a picture of Unite boss Len McCluskey taking
:22:31. > :22:32.The headline is "crash, bang, wallies", claiming
:22:33. > :22:37.that the manifesto launch is a "shambles".
:22:38. > :22:45.In a way, Labour has a point about members or parts of the press who
:22:46. > :22:49.have just got it in for him no matter what he says. Most of the
:22:50. > :22:52.printed press in this country is sceptical if not hostile to some of
:22:53. > :23:00.the positions he has advocated. But they would be whatever he said. 85%
:23:01. > :23:03.of the press is always against Labour. The reference to the 1940s
:23:04. > :23:07.was from Paul Johnson of the ISS, and nobody can accuse him of being
:23:08. > :23:12.always against Labour, that is one of the most impartial institutions
:23:13. > :23:15.in the country. His argument was that the policies outlined in the
:23:16. > :23:19.manifesto are so radical they would transform the role of the state in
:23:20. > :23:23.so many areas of people's lives, and lead to such extraordinary levels of
:23:24. > :23:26.state spending, they really ought to be questioned. Nothing in the
:23:27. > :23:30.manifesto would be unpopular, you said, there are things that would be
:23:31. > :23:35.unpopular, but you are right, time and again whether an nationalising
:23:36. > :23:39.rail, zero hours contracts, banning fox hunting, these things poll well
:23:40. > :23:44.with the public, yet it is Mr Corbyn himself and the wider team around
:23:45. > :23:50.him that will prevent these policies... It is a popular
:23:51. > :23:54.manifesto, when people comparing with the 1983 longest suicide note
:23:55. > :23:58.in history... It didn't do the many good then! There were important
:23:59. > :24:03.things in it that are there now like unilateral disarmament, pulling out
:24:04. > :24:07.of Nato, pulling out of Europe, there is nothing in this manifesto I
:24:08. > :24:11.think that anybody somewhat to the left of centre couldn't agree with
:24:12. > :24:16.warmly. What about the costings, though? Isn't that going to be the
:24:17. > :24:21.day of reckoning in terms of the amount of money on social care,
:24:22. > :24:25.abolishing tuition fees, these sound like very popular but very expensive
:24:26. > :24:30.policies. What we need to see is how they are going to be costed, and
:24:31. > :24:34.what the priorities are. Are these longer-term things? Are they really
:24:35. > :24:39.going to abolish all tuition fees even for the richest families? Will
:24:40. > :24:43.there be gradations? Who knows? It is really important that those are
:24:44. > :24:48.watertight. And they won't be, because he is talking about spending
:24:49. > :24:54.taxes, the same tax rise on multiple different projects. We heard from
:24:55. > :24:57.the former Lib Dem pension Minister Steve Webb who said the commitment
:24:58. > :25:02.to cancel the rising of the state pension age would cost 300 billion
:25:03. > :25:08.over 20 years. But that is a bit of a chisel, over 20 years. Corbyn will
:25:09. > :25:12.have to try to be in power for 20 years if he wants to fully
:25:13. > :25:15.nationalise the rail. People say he will seize it back, but they fall
:25:16. > :25:19.back in mostly in about 15 years, and they will fall back in without
:25:20. > :25:23.any cost, because you are not snatching it back. The 1983
:25:24. > :25:27.manifesto was all about grabbing back huge industries with no
:25:28. > :25:32.compensation. There is quite a bit of that in the manifesto. We all
:25:33. > :25:38.know the Conservatives are wanting to cap prices as well in terms of
:25:39. > :25:41.energy companies. But the only bit of costing apart from the
:25:42. > :25:46.re-spending as critics would say of corporation tax increases is this
:25:47. > :25:53.idea of taxing those who earn over ?80,000 a bit more. Why so modest
:25:54. > :25:56.from John McDonnell? He said it would only be a modest amount, that
:25:57. > :26:02.doesn't sound like it would be enough to meet those costs. Maybe
:26:03. > :26:06.there is a 50p tax for hire people. You could go up to 60p for the
:26:07. > :26:16.people earning a million. You could, but you raise less money. Let save
:26:17. > :26:16.this is the next week where we will have the manifesto is, finally.
:26:17. > :26:19.Deal. The opinion polls are forecasting
:26:20. > :26:22.a comfortable Conservative victory But after the surprise
:26:23. > :26:24.result of 2015, Brexit and President Trump's win,
:26:25. > :26:27.can we trust polling companies to give us an accurate
:26:28. > :26:29.prediction of the result? Jenny Kumah's been looking at how
:26:30. > :26:31.the pollsters are trying The Conservatives
:26:32. > :26:39.are the largest party. It was the day that David Cameron
:26:40. > :26:42.won, and you could argue They weren't able to get to people
:26:43. > :26:55.who, if they did persist, they did pursue them,
:26:56. > :26:59.difficult to get, but they They didn't get them,
:27:00. > :27:02.so they got the more Labour. After the surprise result
:27:03. > :27:05.of the 2015 general election, pollsters took a good,
:27:06. > :27:08.hard look at the way they did and brought in changes
:27:09. > :27:10.to improve accuracy. Despite this, many still failed
:27:11. > :27:14.to forecast Brexit. So are they right about
:27:15. > :27:19.next month's election? And just how sure can we be
:27:20. > :27:22.that the polls' favourite will be moving into Number 10
:27:23. > :27:25.on June the 9th? YouGov's online polls put Labour
:27:26. > :27:27.and the Conservatives To improve their accuracy,
:27:28. > :27:38.they've recruited more people to their survey panels who aren't
:27:39. > :27:41.interested in politics and are less likely to vote,
:27:42. > :27:43.so that their samples Despite this, they mainly forecast
:27:44. > :27:49.a Remain result in 2016. What actually happened in the EU
:27:50. > :27:52.referendum was there was a higher turnout than people expected,
:27:53. > :27:54.and some social groups who don't normally vote so often actually
:27:55. > :27:57.did come out and vote, How confident are you that your
:27:58. > :28:01.forecasts for the 2017 Even if you look at polls
:28:02. > :28:10.when we got it really wrong, so 1992, the famous error,
:28:11. > :28:13.2015 when things were very wrong. The poll only got it wrong
:28:14. > :28:15.by about seven points. If the Conservatives have got
:28:16. > :28:21.a lead of about 19 points, then if you were just as wrong
:28:22. > :28:24.as that, that would still leave In the polling industry, you're only
:28:25. > :28:28.as good as your last game. ComRes's polls were
:28:29. > :28:32.the least wrong in 2015. They then brought in new techniques
:28:33. > :28:35.to better reflect turnout. But their final EU referendum poll
:28:36. > :28:45.showed an 8-point lead for Remain. For the 2017 election,
:28:46. > :28:49.if voters behave the way they did in the 2015 general election,
:28:50. > :28:52.then our turnout modelling should The big question in my mind
:28:53. > :28:59.is the impact of the 2016 referendum, and whether for some
:29:00. > :29:04.voters that meant that for the first time they voted
:29:05. > :29:13.and they are getting a taste for it. I think more likely, we've got
:29:14. > :29:15.a slightly different problem, which is that some people may feel
:29:16. > :29:18.that the result is a foregone conclusion, and they'll sit
:29:19. > :29:21.on their hands, sit at home and do So do the public trust
:29:22. > :29:24.the forecasters? I thought I'd do my
:29:25. > :29:26.own opinion poll. A couple of them of late have
:29:27. > :29:33.been a little way off. I think the people that partake
:29:34. > :29:36.and vote or that they screen aren't a true representation
:29:37. > :29:39.of the population. It's a safe bet to say that it's
:29:40. > :29:42.definitely going to go one way, and the opinion polls will be proven
:29:43. > :29:46.right this time, but I think we'll still be surprised
:29:47. > :29:51.at how right it is. We'll know for sure
:29:52. > :29:53.whether pollsters have done better And we've been joined
:29:54. > :30:02.by Will Jennings, professor of politics at Southampton
:30:03. > :30:13.University. Welcome. You were part of the
:30:14. > :30:19.polling inquiry. What is your sense of why the pollsters got it wrong,
:30:20. > :30:24.particularly in 2015? In 2015 after the election there was speculation
:30:25. > :30:28.around whether it was to do with shy Tories with people not willing to
:30:29. > :30:33.say they would vote Conservative, or lazy labour and Labour voters did
:30:34. > :30:36.not turn out that the enquiry concluded there was slight evidence
:30:37. > :30:42.for a late swing at the polls towards the Conservatives in the
:30:43. > :30:45.final day or two, what caused it was unrepresentative samples and
:30:46. > :30:49.pollsters were not getting enough people who had low political
:30:50. > :30:52.engagement. They were over representing highly politically
:30:53. > :30:57.engaged people and also under representing slightly older voters.
:30:58. > :31:01.Are you worried it could happen again this time? When you said
:31:02. > :31:07.certain groups were overrepresented it was felt support for Labour was
:31:08. > :31:11.overrepresented. Could Labour support be lower or higher than the
:31:12. > :31:16.polls currently estimate? There is an historical pattern of the polls
:31:17. > :31:20.over the past 20 years of them tending to overstate Labour support
:31:21. > :31:25.and it is difficult to know this election because there has been huge
:31:26. > :31:29.mythological change across the industry with pollsters making
:31:30. > :31:32.different changes. Some tinkered with turnout probabilities and how
:31:33. > :31:36.likely people are to vote and many look to the quality of their panels
:31:37. > :31:40.and it is difficult to know whether the historical pattern of Labour
:31:41. > :31:47.support being overstated but we should not assume it will be and we
:31:48. > :31:53.cannot assume the patterns of 2015, 2016 in the referendum, will
:31:54. > :31:56.necessarily hold in 2017. Do we need to see companies spending more money
:31:57. > :32:01.on the fieldwork and surveys they carry out in order to ensure they
:32:02. > :32:08.are getting the representation? Pollsters are doing it incredibly
:32:09. > :32:11.difficult job in an economically constrained situation. Newspapers
:32:12. > :32:16.and broadcasters do not pay a lot of money for the polls and recruiting
:32:17. > :32:20.high-quality panels to represent the population is expensive. I think
:32:21. > :32:25.they are within the financial constraints they are operating doing
:32:26. > :32:29.the best they can and trying to innovate methodology. The real
:32:30. > :32:32.challenge of polling is you deal with a moving target between
:32:33. > :32:40.elections and only get one test to see if your methodological changes
:32:41. > :32:45.of work. What about TV debates, manifesto launches, what difference
:32:46. > :32:49.do they make two changes in polling? There is debate academically about
:32:50. > :32:54.how much campaigns matter. The evidence we have from looking at a
:32:55. > :32:57.large number of elections in the UK and cross nationally, the polls tend
:32:58. > :33:02.to converge on the final result steadily. As you approach election
:33:03. > :33:06.day the polls tell you more about the result. We should not expect to
:33:07. > :33:11.see large swings in public opinion in either direction as we head
:33:12. > :33:16.towards Junior eight. Thank you very much. Christian May, do you trust
:33:17. > :33:20.the polls? A lot was made of getting it wrong in 2015, but there have
:33:21. > :33:25.been other polls since and the pollsters have been more accurate.
:33:26. > :33:32.What he said was you need a high-quality panel to represent the
:33:33. > :33:36.nation. We need a fume or are you to make it representative! Do you think
:33:37. > :33:42.they are worth trusting? Yes as an indication. There are many different
:33:43. > :33:47.things you can poll on and when you look at values and issues you get a
:33:48. > :33:52.stark difference if the public thinks 70-30 on a topic it can be a
:33:53. > :33:58.good indication but if it is a straight, yes, no race, you might
:33:59. > :34:05.have 3-4% margin of error but the current polling with a 20% lead for
:34:06. > :34:08.the Conservatives, a 3% margin will not change things. I think the
:34:09. > :34:15.pollsters would have to pack up shop and go away and do something else if
:34:16. > :34:21.they were wrong this time. 15, 20% point lead. If that were wildly
:34:22. > :34:25.wrong, the game would be up. What is interesting is what people are
:34:26. > :34:31.polled on. People like policies and Labour policies. When they are told
:34:32. > :34:35.which party, which leader represents which policies, they change their
:34:36. > :34:40.mind, which I am afraid shows leadership matters more than
:34:41. > :34:45.everything else had wipes out almost everything. It was ever fuss. I
:34:46. > :34:48.think it has become more so and every election gets more
:34:49. > :34:50.presidential. Let's get a round-up of the election campaign news.
:34:51. > :35:03.Thank you for letting me come inside and sit in the office. You have
:35:04. > :35:07.found a chair! It is warm, not raining, I am undercover and it is
:35:08. > :35:11.Friday and things are not as manic in the campaign as the past few days
:35:12. > :35:15.but there has been plenty of news in the past 24 hours, including the
:35:16. > :35:16.return of old faces. This is what has been happening.
:35:17. > :35:18.He thought he'd said goodbye to the cringey photo-op,
:35:19. > :35:21.but former PM David Cameron was back on the campaign trail
:35:22. > :35:28.It's so important, not only that the Conservatives win and win
:35:29. > :35:32.well, so Theresa can negotiate that Brexit deal, so she can stand up
:35:33. > :35:35.to people that want an extreme Brexit either here or in Brussels.
:35:36. > :35:41.Tony Blair has been talking Brexit in Ireland.
:35:42. > :35:43.The game no one wants to play is back.
:35:44. > :35:49.Check out this party election broadcast from the Greens,
:35:50. > :35:56.Although they know carefully crafted pastiches are my thing, right?
:35:57. > :36:00.Father's Day isn't enough for the Lib Dems.
:36:01. > :36:03.They want a whole Father's Month, with a pledge to introduce more
:36:04. > :36:06.Out filming for the BBC Politics Facebook page
:36:07. > :36:10.with some cardboard cutouts, I stumbled into film
:36:11. > :36:13.director Guy Ritchie, who seemed a bit confused.
:36:14. > :36:15.Guy, Guy, who are you going to vote for in
:36:16. > :36:29.Surely he'd recognise BoJo, who made a rare foray
:36:30. > :36:32.Go on, say some funny long words, go on.
:36:33. > :36:47.Guy Ritchie, do not worry, you will be able to see Theresa May in action
:36:48. > :36:50.this afternoon, because she is in the North of England during a speech
:36:51. > :36:55.about patriotism. While everybody is declaring whether or not they are a
:36:56. > :36:59.pacifist, Ukip leader Paul Nuttall said he is not that he would only
:37:00. > :37:03.send soldiers overseas if it was truly in the British national
:37:04. > :37:08.interest. The biggest news, David Dimbleby is sitting just over there.
:37:09. > :37:16.I spotted him earlier. He wants your chair, you will have to move, Adam.
:37:17. > :37:17.Elsewhere, the SNP have accused the Conservatives of poisoning the well
:37:18. > :37:21.of Brexit negotiations. By not yet guaranteeing
:37:22. > :37:24.the continued rights of EU citizens living in the UK -
:37:25. > :37:26.something the SNP have branded We're joined now from Dundee
:37:27. > :37:35.by the SNP's Europe Welcome back to the Daily Politics.
:37:36. > :37:39.Theresa May has said resolving the rights of EU citizens in the UK is a
:37:40. > :37:46.priority in negotiations and she wants to deal with it first. That is
:37:47. > :37:51.hardly poisoning the well? The issue of EU citizens is something she
:37:52. > :37:55.could resolve now. I was at the University of Saint Andrews with the
:37:56. > :38:00.First Minister, one of many institutions where EU citizens make
:38:01. > :38:03.a contribution financially and making communities a better place in
:38:04. > :38:08.which to live and work. The government could have solved this
:38:09. > :38:12.problem a long time ago. As could the EU. It is something up to the UK
:38:13. > :38:19.Government. They could say if you live here and have made your home
:38:20. > :38:26.here, stay. In terms of poisoning the well, we see Theresa May...
:38:27. > :38:30.After this election, there is a big job for parliamentarians which is to
:38:31. > :38:35.scrutinise the work of the government over what kind of
:38:36. > :38:42.relationship we have with Europe, on the environment, EU citizens. We
:38:43. > :38:44.have Theresa May trying to criticise and hurl abuse at European partners
:38:45. > :38:52.that she will have to negotiate with. This is a negotiation as you
:38:53. > :38:56.have said, and what could be utterly contemptible about first offering to
:38:57. > :39:00.deal with this issue before the formal negotiations started, which
:39:01. > :39:06.was rejected by the EU. The government made an attempt to deal
:39:07. > :39:11.with resolving the issue of the fate of EU citizens. Secondly, they have
:39:12. > :39:17.to look at British citizens in EU countries. It is a two-way street.
:39:18. > :39:22.If you take the issue of EU citizens who live here, we should be honoured
:39:23. > :39:26.they have made Scotland and elsewhere in the UK their home. If
:39:27. > :39:30.you look at the massive financial contribution alone, and it is more
:39:31. > :39:35.than that, we would be financially worse off without these EU citizens.
:39:36. > :39:40.Theresa May has not said she does not want them to stay. You are
:39:41. > :39:45.implying she wants them to go. It is good for the UK to keep EU citizens,
:39:46. > :39:51.who contribute so much. In the universities where I live, in our
:39:52. > :39:55.tourist sector. In the food and drinks sector. They make a huge
:39:56. > :40:00.contribution. The government can sort this out now. Given the way
:40:01. > :40:06.Theresa May and Ruth Davidson have been sitting, the abuse they have
:40:07. > :40:10.hurled at the people we need to negotiate with, this could be a
:40:11. > :40:15.little bit of goodwill. They could have solved this problem months ago.
:40:16. > :40:20.Yet they have let uncertainty go on almost a year and that is not
:40:21. > :40:24.acceptable. I am sure that is unsettling for EU citizens living
:40:25. > :40:29.here, but what about the 1.1 million British expats in the EU? Are you
:40:30. > :40:37.not then leaving them out in the cold? The most substantial piece of
:40:38. > :40:40.work done in terms of our future relationship with Europe was done by
:40:41. > :40:46.the Scottish Government just before Christmas whereby it looked as a
:40:47. > :40:52.compromise are looking at the single market, having freedom of movement.
:40:53. > :40:58.I want to concentrate on the EU citizens and a reciprocal deal for
:40:59. > :41:02.the British expats. You asked about that issue as well and that would
:41:03. > :41:06.have solved that problem. We are not alone in thinking freedom of
:41:07. > :41:11.movement is good because it benefits UK citizens living elsewhere in
:41:12. > :41:16.Europe, as well as EU citizens here. That compromise document would have
:41:17. > :41:22.solved the problem. That document has not been used and if we are
:41:23. > :41:27.looking at your proposal to give a unilateral offer to the EU by saying
:41:28. > :41:30.we will guarantee the rights of residency and right to work of all
:41:31. > :41:36.EU citizens that are here, what happens to the 1.1 million British
:41:37. > :41:40.expats? Are you prepared for them to have a less good deal if that is
:41:41. > :41:43.what came back from the EU? We're not saying that which is why we put
:41:44. > :41:48.forward the compromise document which would secure their rights as
:41:49. > :41:52.well. The SNP is the only party who have put together a document that
:41:53. > :41:56.would secure the rights of EU citizens and UK citizens. We have
:41:57. > :42:00.had nothing from the UK Government, an interesting point in this
:42:01. > :42:05.election campaign, where you see detail from the Scottish Government
:42:06. > :42:09.had SNP and bluff and bluster from the Tories in terms of their dealing
:42:10. > :42:13.with Europe. With the referendum campaign to solve a Tory civil war
:42:14. > :42:16.and now we have a general election campaign to stave off another Tory
:42:17. > :42:21.civil war and take advantage of the Labour Party Civil War. We should
:42:22. > :42:25.get to grips with the substantial problems we have got as a result of
:42:26. > :42:28.having to deal with the relationship with Europe and Theresa May's
:42:29. > :42:34.language and using people as bargaining chips is making things
:42:35. > :42:38.work. Nicola Sturgeon has ruled out increasing the top rate of tax with
:42:39. > :42:41.the civil service analysis to the Scottish Government suggesting a
:42:42. > :42:46.risk of ?30 million in lost revenues by the wealthy upping and leaving.
:42:47. > :42:57.Wide you want to increase the top rate to 50p now? This is the same
:42:58. > :43:02.situation as in the past two SNP manifesto is. You want a national
:43:03. > :43:07.50p. Let's be clear with the viewers. The past two manifestos, I
:43:08. > :43:11.think you are picking up on the Finance Minister's remarks reported
:43:12. > :43:15.today. We have been clear we don't want to see Scotland to do that on
:43:16. > :43:18.its own while we are still part of the union and do not have many
:43:19. > :43:23.financial powers, we would like to see it across the UK. It is a
:43:24. > :43:27.Westminster election and we have been clear where we can we will work
:43:28. > :43:31.with other parties for progressive politics as we did in the last
:43:32. > :43:35.Parliament and this is one area where we could work with other
:43:36. > :43:38.parties in the UK Parliament. Does the Scottish Government have the
:43:39. > :43:44.power to raise income tax? If it does so, you are doing so just in
:43:45. > :43:48.Scotland and not elsewhere. You just said in your last answer you have...
:43:49. > :43:52.That is why the Council of economic advisers and remember the first
:43:53. > :43:56.registered took the innovative step of having a council of economic
:43:57. > :44:01.advisers is something she refers to on this. On the point of Westminster
:44:02. > :44:06.and these elections it is something we can work with other parties on
:44:07. > :44:11.issues across the UK, while we are part of the UK, big decisions are
:44:12. > :44:15.made about people in Scotland and elsewhere in the UK and we have a
:44:16. > :44:17.responsibility to work in a constructive manner at Westminster.
:44:18. > :44:22.If you continue talking at great length we cannot put the questions.
:44:23. > :44:25.On the tax rate, you imply the Scottish Government does not have
:44:26. > :44:29.much in the way of power but you have powers to raise income tax and
:44:30. > :44:31.could have done so. You said you had very few powers, the words you use
:44:32. > :44:49.but it was such a long time ago! In terms of raising the level of
:44:50. > :44:53.income tax, you can do that. But why do it now when it is not looked at
:44:54. > :45:02.in terms of being done across the rest of the UK? We are wanting to
:45:03. > :45:07.see a reduction in austerity, because if you look at the cuts to
:45:08. > :45:11.the Scottish Government, they are coming from Westminster, and if we
:45:12. > :45:17.have that austerity, that is less money to spend on education, health,
:45:18. > :45:26.crucial public services. Westminster has a huge role, it is essential we
:45:27. > :45:33.have a strong team of SNP MPs in Westminster, and that is why we can
:45:34. > :45:38.be the official opposition. Is this about a second independence
:45:39. > :45:42.referendum? Why is it not on your SNP campaign leaflets? The Scottish
:45:43. > :45:49.Parliament... This is the start of the campaign, and we are still in
:45:50. > :45:53.favour... You have always known what your lines are an independence. I
:45:54. > :45:59.don't figure that is a great secret. So why isn't it in your campaign
:46:00. > :46:03.leaflet? The Scottish Parliament has voted in favour of independence.
:46:04. > :46:04.What we want to see is Westminster respective decisions made at the
:46:05. > :46:09.Scottish Parliament. Because you don't think you will get as big a
:46:10. > :46:15.mandate this time around? The Tories have got us into this mess on just
:46:16. > :46:18.36% of the vote, and the SNP has 95% of the seats in Scotland, so if
:46:19. > :46:23.those are the two different margins you are comparing this by, I'm not
:46:24. > :46:29.sure that is fair, but we are in this mess based on 36% of people in
:46:30. > :46:32.the UK voted Conservative. I fight against the Conservatives in North
:46:33. > :46:34.East Fife, and we know we have to work hard over the next few weeks.
:46:35. > :46:38.Stephen, thank you very much. Let's take a look now at another
:46:39. > :46:41.of the smaller parties campaign in the general election -
:46:42. > :46:43.the Socialist Party of Great Britain, which is fielding
:46:44. > :46:46.just three candidates. The Socialist Party of Great Britain
:46:47. > :46:48.was founded in 1904 with the aim It's a leaderless organisation,
:46:49. > :46:52.with more than 20,000 It takes inspiration from Marx,
:46:53. > :47:00.but rejects Leninism and Trotskyism. It wants an immediate move
:47:01. > :47:03.to a socialist system with a system As such, they don't believe in other
:47:04. > :47:18.political parties or government. But presumably you are not the
:47:19. > :47:22.leader? Certainly not! Because you don't have a leader? How does that
:47:23. > :47:27.work in practice? We have democracy instead. So how do you make a
:47:28. > :47:31.decision? What we do is in our party every year we have an annual
:47:32. > :47:34.conference, and the conference is attended by delegates from all over
:47:35. > :47:39.the country, issues are discussed, then they go back to their branches
:47:40. > :47:43.and we vote on the issues. When I say democracy I mean we have a
:47:44. > :47:47.system in our party where all relevant information to the party
:47:48. > :47:53.freely available to every member. Every member has the same access to
:47:54. > :47:57.the democratic process. But if you oppose all governments, which I the
:47:58. > :48:02.case, are you standing in a general election? Because we are Democrats.
:48:03. > :48:10.But what is the point? If you don't believe in the political system, why
:48:11. > :48:15.are you standing is in it? We use it to put forward our propositions. To
:48:16. > :48:18.what end? To change people's minds, to explain the system they live
:48:19. > :48:22.under and put forward a better system of living. How can you do
:48:23. > :48:27.that by only putting forward three candidates? By coming on television,
:48:28. > :48:31.hopefully there are millions of people out there. There are millions
:48:32. > :48:35.watching this programme, absolutely! But if you are only fielding three
:48:36. > :48:38.candidates, it is not a very big offer you are making in terms of
:48:39. > :48:44.trying to convert people. You mustn't underestimate people. I'm
:48:45. > :48:48.not underestimating people, I am slightly questioning your ability to
:48:49. > :48:51.appeal to a broad audience. We are a very small party with limited
:48:52. > :48:55.resources. If we had unlimited resources, we would contest every
:48:56. > :49:01.seat where we could delegate a member to do so. But the point of
:49:02. > :49:05.coming on television like this is to put forward our case against
:49:06. > :49:08.capitalism and socialism. If we look at Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party, why
:49:09. > :49:13.don't you just support him of the Labour Party? It isn't a socialist
:49:14. > :49:18.party, it is a capitalist party and it always has been. We are a
:49:19. > :49:22.principled party. You have just had a chap on the Labour Party talking
:49:23. > :49:28.about defence. The Labour Party's principles change with the political
:49:29. > :49:31.whim. The Communist Party said they were happy with Jeremy Corbyn and
:49:32. > :49:35.the Labour Party manifesto. You are different to them, what what are the
:49:36. > :49:44.differences between you, and the other socialist party, what marks
:49:45. > :49:48.you out? What we want, what we stand for is socialism. But is that common
:49:49. > :49:52.ownership and democratic control of the means of producing wealth,
:49:53. > :49:57.carried out in the interest of the whole community. What they stand for
:49:58. > :50:04.estate capitalism who believe in the state, whereas we do not. We believe
:50:05. > :50:08.that for society to run correctly, it has to be run democratically, and
:50:09. > :50:15.that means that the responsibility has to be shared, otherwise it is an
:50:16. > :50:17.immature system. This is part of the political debate, but does this
:50:18. > :50:23.party have anything to add in terms of the general election? Probably
:50:24. > :50:29.quite useful for Jeremy Corbyn to have somebody to the left of him!
:50:30. > :50:34.Have you found your members looking towards the Labour Party? The Labour
:50:35. > :50:40.Party has brought in lots of people, have any of your members move
:50:41. > :50:43.towards them? I think we had one member a couple of years ago join,
:50:44. > :50:50.but our membership is fairly small but fairly stable, because we have a
:50:51. > :50:55.unique way of viewing society, and a unique proposition to put forward as
:50:56. > :51:01.far as the future goes. What about the nationalisation of the railways?
:51:02. > :51:03.What is your view on that? It's not common ownership, it state
:51:04. > :51:10.ownership. So what would you do? What we would do? The point is, we
:51:11. > :51:14.do not propose to run capitalism. But running the role is, how they
:51:15. > :51:23.run? On the basis of common ownership. They would be a resource
:51:24. > :51:30.that the whole of society would produce and run for itself. Your
:51:31. > :51:39.party also calls for a wage list, moneyless society, I was trying to
:51:40. > :51:43.think of a comparison. Kibbutz in Israel used to run in a similar way.
:51:44. > :51:47.What is your view of some of these policies? Danny Mac be interested to
:51:48. > :51:52.know that the chief economics at the Bank of England has also talked
:51:53. > :51:56.about a cashless society, but he was talking about moving away from hard
:51:57. > :52:02.cash to something purely digital. I think society stripped of the
:52:03. > :52:05.freedom and liberty that having money and personal choice gives them
:52:06. > :52:13.would be miserable. Is it a burden? I think lack of it is more of a
:52:14. > :52:16.burden. All wealth in society are socially produced, and so it should
:52:17. > :52:20.be socially administered. We live in a society that is based on
:52:21. > :52:25.employment, so you have employers and employed. There is a French
:52:26. > :52:32.word, it means to use, to take advantage of. We want a society
:52:33. > :52:36.where we give freely of our social creativity and take freely from
:52:37. > :52:42.social production. Then no longer do we have to sell ourselves for a
:52:43. > :52:45.price, we will be free, and we will live a life without price. Any
:52:46. > :52:52.examples of that going on at the moment? Human beings have to sell
:52:53. > :52:55.themselves on the labour market, the sordid process of selling ourselves
:52:56. > :53:00.on the labour market, somebody will use us for their ends. Can you give
:53:01. > :53:09.me an example of where that could work successfully and does work?
:53:10. > :53:14.Venezuelan? That is cheap. This is much more like Christianity in its
:53:15. > :53:18.purest form. Consider the lilies of the field. It is that kind of
:53:19. > :53:25.utopianism. It has a place. Don't all talk at once. Final word to
:53:26. > :53:32.Danny. It is not utopian. What allows capitalism to function is the
:53:33. > :53:36.egregious case of mistaken identity. We all share the same ancestors, we
:53:37. > :53:41.are all members of the same family, that is our common identity. With a
:53:42. > :53:49.common identity, it is impossible to exploit orca worse in anyway, and
:53:50. > :53:50.capitalism runs on mistaken identity. Danny Lafferty, we have to
:53:51. > :53:53.finish there. We may be saying adios,
:53:54. > :53:55.adieu and auf wiedersehen to the European Union,
:53:56. > :53:58.but as the Prime Minister assured us earlier this week, it
:53:59. > :54:00.will still be wilkommen, bienvenue and welcome
:54:01. > :54:02.for the Brits when it comes to the Eurovision Song Contest
:54:03. > :54:04.in Kiev tomorrow. But will our erstwhile European
:54:05. > :54:06.partners deliver a Brexit Macro I have always wanted to say
:54:07. > :54:13.that! Let's remind ourselves
:54:14. > :54:14.what this bit of European # Knowing my fate
:54:15. > :54:23.is to be with you...# # Rise like a Phoenix
:54:24. > :54:50.out of the ashes # Spin my head and
:54:51. > :55:04.# Power to the boys that played rock and roll
:55:05. > :55:13.# And soon you will find that there comes a time
:55:14. > :55:31.We've been joined by Chris West, author of Eurovision!A History of
:55:32. > :55:41.You must have a lot of fun doing this? I love it. I have seen every
:55:42. > :55:48.Eurovision is on but has ever been some. Is that right? Except for two
:55:49. > :55:51.years where they have lost all the tapes, the first one, 56, and in
:55:52. > :55:57.1964, they lost the tape, and someone wants find a box with
:55:58. > :56:03.Eurovision 1964 on it, opened its... And it was empty. Crime of the
:56:04. > :56:07.century! What impact do you think Brexit will have on our role? I
:56:08. > :56:11.don't know, and it is interesting. Eurovision is a signalling mechanism
:56:12. > :56:16.whereby other countries will pass judgment on another country, so if
:56:17. > :56:22.you look at 2003, Iraq, we came last. It wasn't a great song or
:56:23. > :56:27.performance, but I think out there, people were saying they didn't
:56:28. > :56:30.approve of that. What will we get this year? We don't know. It might
:56:31. > :56:38.be that Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal... Will they take their
:56:39. > :56:54.revenge? If they are having a horrible time, they might vote for
:56:55. > :57:00.us so we might get the douze point, then? Politics is a big deal in this
:57:01. > :57:09.Eurovision Song contest. I have to say my heart slightly sank when I
:57:10. > :57:12.saw the countries voting for each other rather than the songs. That
:57:13. > :57:18.changed when they change the judging system. You should watch! Do you
:57:19. > :57:23.watch it? My grandchildren love it, it is brain much a kid thing. What
:57:24. > :57:26.is good to remember and what is good about your book is it was started at
:57:27. > :57:30.the same time at the beginning of the whole European idea, and it came
:57:31. > :57:39.from that sort of idealism. And it is kind of bonkers and crazy now we
:57:40. > :57:46.have Egypt and... Europe has grown! And Australia, which is wonderful!
:57:47. > :57:50.So we are taking it broadly! But Polly does make an interesting point
:57:51. > :57:56.about what it was there for in the beginning, and that is the point.
:57:57. > :58:05.Yes, the founder was a great friend of the founding of the EU, so it
:58:06. > :58:07.does come from the same root. Theresa May pulled a terrible face
:58:08. > :58:14.because she plainly thinks we will be punished, and we certainly
:58:15. > :58:16.deserve to be. Maybe we will get some Euro-sceptic solidarity from
:58:17. > :58:22.the countries that I Euro-sceptic, maybe a sympathy vote. I have never
:58:23. > :58:26.watched it, but we might go into the top five! It is never too late. I am
:58:27. > :58:29.going to quickly finish it there, thank you very much for coming in.
:58:30. > :58:32.There's just time before we go to find out the answer to our quiz.
:58:33. > :58:40.So Polly, Christian, what's the correct answer?
:58:41. > :58:47.Is it just the amount the parties spend the whole general election? As
:58:48. > :58:55.long as the returns are signed off properly I think 140. Let's find out
:58:56. > :59:00.if mark, my political collie, is there and can give is the answer.
:59:01. > :59:03.What is the answer? After some number crunching, we found out that
:59:04. > :59:09.the Government expects the UK general election to cost the
:59:10. > :59:13.taxpayer ?143 million, that is ?101 million spent on printing the postal
:59:14. > :59:16.vote, ballot papers, the tens of thousands of polling stations being
:59:17. > :59:21.manned and counting millions of votes, and ?42 million on election
:59:22. > :59:24.mailings, distributions for the candidates, and that is according to
:59:25. > :59:29.the Cabinet Office and Northern Ireland Office. Thank you very much
:59:30. > :59:31.for crunching the numbers, well done, Polly.
:59:32. > :59:34.Thanks to Polly, Christian and all my guests.
:59:35. > :59:39.The one o'clock news is starting over on BBC One now.