:00:38. > :00:40.Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics.
:00:41. > :00:42.Theresa May prepares to meet Conservative MPs.
:00:43. > :00:45.She says she'll serve a full term as Prime Minister,
:00:46. > :00:52.Labour say they are ready to form a Government,
:00:53. > :00:54.but with a Conservative working majority of 13, is there really any
:00:55. > :01:03.The Brexit Secretary says we're still leaving the single market,
:01:04. > :01:06.but does the general election mean there will have to be changes
:01:07. > :01:11.And frozen in time - we'll look back at the general
:01:12. > :01:24.All that in the next hour, and with us for the whole
:01:25. > :01:30.of the programme today, an MP who's on so often he's
:01:31. > :01:32.becoming the Shadow Minister for the Daily Politics,
:01:33. > :01:36.And his predecessor in that role, but we haven't seen on the programme
:01:37. > :01:38.for some time, former Conservative Party
:01:39. > :01:46.Theresa May held her first Cabinet meeting this morning.
:01:47. > :01:50.Later, she faces her backbench MPs at a meeting
:01:51. > :01:55.It looks like there's no immediate plan to oust her.
:01:56. > :01:57.So, how will this minority Government go about governing?
:01:58. > :01:59.When the dust settled after election night,
:02:00. > :02:06.the Conservatives ended up with 318 seats and Labour with 262.
:02:07. > :02:09.All other parties combined took 70 seats, 10 of which were won
:02:10. > :02:12.by the DUP, who've been courted by the Conservatives for a so-called
:02:13. > :02:21.When one subtracts Sinn Fein MPs, who don't take their seats,
:02:22. > :02:26.and the Speaker and Deputy Speakers, who traditionally don't vote,
:02:27. > :02:28.the effective working majority for a Conservative Government that
:02:29. > :02:47.Over the weekend Theresa May set about reshuffling her Cabinet.
:02:48. > :02:49.Damian Green was elevated from Work and Pensions Secretary
:02:50. > :02:52.to First Secretary of State - a move that's seen him
:02:53. > :02:54.touted as effectively Theresa May's new deputy.
:02:55. > :02:57.He was replaced as the man in charge of welfare policy by long-time
:02:58. > :03:01.It was a return to the top table for one-time leadership
:03:02. > :03:02.contender Michael Gove, who takes on the
:03:03. > :03:05.While his fellow Leave campaigner Andrea Leadsom moved
:03:06. > :03:08.across to become the new Leader of the House of Commons.
:03:09. > :03:11.Liz Truss, who many had thought had something of a torrid time
:03:12. > :03:13.at the Justice Department, becomes the new Chief
:03:14. > :03:16.And was replaced as Justice Secretary and Lord Chancellor
:03:17. > :03:23.So, as Theresa May prepares to face down her party
:03:24. > :03:26.at the 1922 Committee tonight, all attention among her reorganised
:03:27. > :03:29.staff will be on crafting a Queen's Speech for next Monday.
:03:30. > :03:33.MPs will vote on its contents on 27th June.
:03:34. > :03:35.That will count as the new minority Government's
:03:36. > :03:50.Grant Shapps, what went wrong? Well, the manifesto, clearly, that was a
:03:51. > :03:56.big issue on the doorstep. Specifically the social care policy?
:03:57. > :04:00.Specifically, I think you can do a certain number of unpopular things
:04:01. > :04:06.and people will say, OK, we understand you are taking tough
:04:07. > :04:10.decisions, so maybe that was the pension triple-lock moving to a
:04:11. > :04:14.double-lock. I don't think you can do everything, and what this
:04:15. > :04:19.manifesto tried to do in the of responsibility fiscally, solving
:04:20. > :04:24.long-term problems, was try to do everything and I think that was a
:04:25. > :04:30.mistake. Was it arrogant? I think it was borne out of now departed from
:04:31. > :04:34.Downing Street to some advisers who were not best at taking advice and
:04:35. > :04:41.certainly didn't ask people who really would know about things like
:04:42. > :04:45.long-term care sufficiently advanced with ministers for example not being
:04:46. > :04:51.involved. But Theresa my is the one who hired the advisers and took
:04:52. > :04:54.their advice, it cannot all be laid at their door? In the end of good
:04:55. > :04:57.leader has to take responsibility for what happened and I very much
:04:58. > :05:02.hope that when Theresa May comes to the 1922 this evening, she will come
:05:03. > :05:06.and speak to Conservative MPs, that she doesn't do what seems to happen
:05:07. > :05:14.on the doorstep on Friday... She did not take any responsibility.
:05:15. > :05:17.Colleagues lost their jobs, but actually this expectation of this
:05:18. > :05:22.election was allowed to get completely out of control, and when
:05:23. > :05:28.that happens you end up in a mess. So I think what she will do later is
:05:29. > :05:34.perhaps just show the progression of the fact that people have lost their
:05:35. > :05:38.Parliamentary jobs for a general election which was not strictly
:05:39. > :05:41.required and I hope take some questions from colleagues. But I
:05:42. > :05:44.agree with you in the introduction, I don't think there is any great
:05:45. > :05:49.feeling that we want an urgent leadership election, getting right
:05:50. > :05:53.back into that, because, to coin a phrase, genuinely what the country
:05:54. > :05:56.actually requires is some stability, so I think that leadership election
:05:57. > :06:00.is not the first thing that should be on the cards. Were you surprised
:06:01. > :06:06.she did not show much contrition on the doorstep on Friday. Yes. What
:06:07. > :06:17.would you have liked to have heard from her? What she then said an hour
:06:18. > :06:18.or two later, her colleagues have lost their seats, majorities had
:06:19. > :06:21.been cut, and clearly in human terms this election did not go to plan,
:06:22. > :06:25.the plan was to have a bigger majority and strengthen her upper
:06:26. > :06:30.hand at Brexit negotiations, which is fine, but it is not what ended up
:06:31. > :06:34.happening so you expect any speech about it to at least acknowledge the
:06:35. > :06:39.fact it hasn't gone our way. But, as I say, I think she has then done a
:06:40. > :06:46.series of the right things, I think she was right to move quickly to put
:06:47. > :06:49.the Cabinet back in place, she dealt with the Downing Street advisers,
:06:50. > :06:55.she is seeing the 1922 this evening. She was pressured to do that? By
:06:56. > :06:58.circumstances, of course, but we are where we are with it, and you ask
:06:59. > :07:02.whether I think there will be a leadership election and I think, no,
:07:03. > :07:06.if the 1922 goes well for her deceiving. Should there be a
:07:07. > :07:13.leadership contest if it does not go well? You would require, just on a
:07:14. > :07:17.technical note, 48 MPs, 15%, 48 MPs to sign a letter will stop at an
:07:18. > :07:22.emotional and personal level, you have outlined, she did not show
:07:23. > :07:26.contrition on Friday. She went to the country because she wanted to
:07:27. > :07:31.get a stronger mandate, a bigger mandate, she made the whole campaign
:07:32. > :07:35.about her in a presidential style, promoted herself as strong and
:07:36. > :07:40.stable and asked for a stronger mandate for Brexit, and it backfired
:07:41. > :07:45.catastrophically for her personally. She lost a majority, Tories have
:07:46. > :07:52.lost seats, as you said, you have gone backwards and she was dubbed a
:07:53. > :07:57.Maybot in terms of her personal style. Does she not need to take
:07:58. > :08:01.more responsibility? Not to acknowledge that was a mistake on
:08:02. > :08:06.Friday, and I hope that has been recognised. The thing about Theresa
:08:07. > :08:10.May, she is quite good at being Prime Minister, what she is not good
:08:11. > :08:16.at Apple is the campaigning and that is what this election showed up, and
:08:17. > :08:19.what was crazy, and I thought this all along, being party chairman I
:08:20. > :08:26.thought about this long and hard, to allow expectations to run to the
:08:27. > :08:30.point where there was May-mania and we would get hundreds of seats was
:08:31. > :08:35.crazy insane. For the purpose of balance, the same think is happening
:08:36. > :08:40.now, Jeremy Corbyn has lost a selection, he has far fewer MPs than
:08:41. > :08:44.we do, only four more than their disastrous 2010, and now we have
:08:45. > :08:47.Corbyn-mania. To stick to the main point, how these things get out of
:08:48. > :08:51.control, we now have a Corbyn-mania which is every bit as mad as having
:08:52. > :08:57.the May-mania beforehand. Politics does not have to be done in this
:08:58. > :09:00.pibroch atmosphere. Do you think she will fight another election as
:09:01. > :09:05.leader of the Conservative Party? At this point, I don't know. I suspect
:09:06. > :09:09.that she won't. Do you think she will last the year? Will she, should
:09:10. > :09:13.she make it to the Conservative Party conference? I think it would
:09:14. > :09:17.be great if she now gets the Government in place, which she
:09:18. > :09:21.started to do yesterday, and starts the negotiations, and then she can
:09:22. > :09:24.herself make any decision about the future. I think it should be that
:09:25. > :09:31.way round and I think the mood of the party is to allow for that time
:09:32. > :09:35.and space to do that, and, as I say, what happens this evening in the
:09:36. > :09:38.1922 will be vital to that because she, I think, will need to give the
:09:39. > :09:43.sense that she has not always given in the past that she gets it. We can
:09:44. > :09:48.see pictures of Boris Johnson, Foreign Secretary, confirmed back in
:09:49. > :09:51.post, he has denied he is interested in the leadership, he is out
:09:52. > :09:56.running, you might say he is limbering up. Look at that, amazing.
:09:57. > :09:59.I will look at it for a brief moment, limbering up for a
:10:00. > :10:03.leadership election, getting himself in shape for the top job? He says
:10:04. > :10:09.not and I think that is probably true for the time being. Do you
:10:10. > :10:13.believe him? I think if he was going to do it he would have already done
:10:14. > :10:18.it. I think what we are moving towards here, my best assessment of
:10:19. > :10:25.the situation, is she now has a bit of time and space to get things back
:10:26. > :10:30.on something of an even keel, and with a working majority of 30 it is
:10:31. > :10:33.perfectly possible to do this and actually the big issue, we always
:10:34. > :10:38.like to state the Conservative Party is the party that puts the nation's
:10:39. > :10:41.interest first, and before Barry scoffs that that you can look at the
:10:42. > :10:45.Scottish referendum where at the time it was not in our best
:10:46. > :10:49.interests to have Scotland leaving the UK but we still wanted to do
:10:50. > :10:53.that and in the same spirit right now the most important thing is to
:10:54. > :10:57.have the Brexit negotiations actually begin and that is why we
:10:58. > :11:01.require that everything just comes down for the moment. Barry Gardiner
:11:02. > :11:07.has been listening patiently! Why, though, has more party been so happy
:11:08. > :11:10.about losing the election? I have not been happy about losing the
:11:11. > :11:14.election, I don't think many people in my party have been happy...
:11:15. > :11:19.Jeremy Corbyn looked delighted in the interview yesterday, he thought
:11:20. > :11:24.he had won! What I think we have two be reasonably aware of is that we
:11:25. > :11:29.have turned what the broadsheets were saying was going to be 120 to
:11:30. > :11:32.150 sheet majority to the Conservatives into a reduced number
:11:33. > :11:37.of seats to the Conservatives where they are now forming a minority
:11:38. > :11:40.administration in conjunction with the DUP. More successful than even
:11:41. > :11:45.you could have imagined but you still boss? Given where we were, we
:11:46. > :11:49.have achieved an historic was urgent and I am pleased about that, but I'm
:11:50. > :11:58.conscious there are many people out there in the country who were hoping
:11:59. > :12:01.for the policies that we put in our manifesto to be delivered, and that
:12:02. > :12:03.we have not done that is no solace to them. Let's talk about the
:12:04. > :12:06.policies, Grant Shapps, which policies will be dropped from the
:12:07. > :12:11.manifesto, because you did not win a mandate for it? Who knows? I cannot
:12:12. > :12:15.answer that. I will tell you one straight off the bat, absolute
:12:16. > :12:19.insanity to start to talk about changing fox-hunting laws, what on
:12:20. > :12:23.earth was that about?! It was the moment where I thought there had
:12:24. > :12:26.been a mistake made, perhaps an off-the-cuff comment and then I bet
:12:27. > :12:31.the manifesto and discovered not only were we planning to allow a
:12:32. > :12:35.free vote but it would be a Government bill in Government time.
:12:36. > :12:40.It stands absolutely no chance of being passed and thank goodness.
:12:41. > :12:45.What about the expansion of grammar schools? Things like grammar
:12:46. > :12:49.schools, the future of education, social care, triple-lock, all of
:12:50. > :12:53.those things I think will be in the mix with the discussions that will
:12:54. > :12:56.now have to take place. Do you think they should be dropped, in a sense
:12:57. > :13:00.that Winter Fuel Payments being cut to a certain number of pensioners,
:13:01. > :13:06.we were never told who it was going to affect, social policy now with
:13:07. > :13:09.its cap as well as its floor, are you saying that shouldn't happen?
:13:10. > :13:16.Things like the social care policy literally went down like a lead
:13:17. > :13:20.balloon, nobody was interested in hearing the explanation which, when
:13:21. > :13:24.you dig into the policy, raising the four from 23 to ?100,000 and it
:13:25. > :13:28.would help some people but no one was interested in getting into that
:13:29. > :13:32.detail. What it did was send a signal that we somehow were not
:13:33. > :13:35.interested in the aspirations of people who work hard and save all
:13:36. > :13:38.their life and want to be able to keep some of that money. People
:13:39. > :13:52.confused it with being about inheritance tax,
:13:53. > :13:56.which it is not, so I think that policy needs to be shelved. So the
:13:57. > :13:58.accusations that Labour had a magic monetary when it came to their
:13:59. > :14:01.manifesto, it will be the Tories who will now go back on a lot of their
:14:02. > :14:04.manifesto commitments and won't commit to bringing down the deficit
:14:05. > :14:06.as in previous manifestos, and they will be spending money and giving
:14:07. > :14:09.out freebies? I don't think that should and needs to be the case.
:14:10. > :14:13.Doesn't it? But so many people voted for the Labour Party for a lot of
:14:14. > :14:16.those policies, I'm not saying for a magic monetary, I'm saying for
:14:17. > :14:20.spending more on public services. It is also possible a lot of people
:14:21. > :14:23.voted Labour to show that they wanted, as people voted Brexit
:14:24. > :14:36.thinking it would never happen, probably voted that way as well,
:14:37. > :14:40.but on social care, for example, I'm not saying there are endless amounts
:14:41. > :14:43.of money, we spent years with The Economist Andrew Dilnot working out
:14:44. > :14:46.what to do one care, it is perfectly good, costed policy. And you didn't
:14:47. > :14:48.do it! How are you going to get your programme of legislation across?
:14:49. > :14:51.Bite do we keep hearing Jeremy Corbyn will have an alternative
:14:52. > :14:55.programme? I don't want to intervene in the cosy chat you have been
:14:56. > :14:59.happening for the past quarter of an hour... It has not been cosy, I have
:15:00. > :15:04.been taking him through what happened between the election. If I
:15:05. > :15:09.can comment on that, it seems to me the real question people need
:15:10. > :15:14.answered immediately is, what is the Queen's Speech? She went to the
:15:15. > :15:18.country on a manifesto, most of the key policies of which she cannot
:15:19. > :15:22.deliver because she is now finding them to be toxic, so what is
:15:23. > :15:28.actually going to be in the Queen's Speech? Nothing. It is vacuous. What
:15:29. > :15:32.I am saying to you is, how are you going to get your policies into any
:15:33. > :15:36.sort of form the public the Ben Foden? You lost the election, none
:15:37. > :15:41.of your manifesto policies are going to come into reality. We are not in
:15:42. > :15:44.Government, absolutely. So why does Jeremy Corbyn say you will offer an
:15:45. > :15:49.alternative programme for Government? There is no prospect of
:15:50. > :15:55.you being able to do that. What the official opposition has to do in
:15:56. > :16:03.Parliament is to put forward reasoned and reasonable alternatives
:16:04. > :16:05.and to make the case so that people can see and ultimately, in a
:16:06. > :16:08.parliament where actually things are so febrile and on a knife edge,
:16:09. > :16:12.where there is a real chance of the Government losing the vote, then
:16:13. > :16:17.actually to be putting forward the reasonable alternatives and trying
:16:18. > :16:22.to build a consensus around that. What is your reasoned proposal on
:16:23. > :16:26.social care that is different to the Government's we actually were in
:16:27. > :16:30.favour of the do not report, we had bipartisan agreement about it until
:16:31. > :16:34.the Conservatives ripped that up, but more than that we said, for
:16:35. > :16:38.example, we would increase carers allowance by 17%, that is something
:16:39. > :16:43.which again was deeply popular. We would restore the ?4.6 billion of
:16:44. > :16:45.cuts the Conservatives made over the past three years. There is a lot of
:16:46. > :16:54.difference there. Do you think those are the sorts of
:16:55. > :16:59.things that should be part of the Queen's speech? Had cross-party
:17:00. > :17:05.agreement on the Andrew deal not proposals. I disagree on going back
:17:06. > :17:12.to the world that got us back into the financial crass and we have been
:17:13. > :17:19.trying to recover ever since. You cannot keep... Grant Shapps... We're
:17:20. > :17:23.not going to go back now in 2017 back to what happened in the
:17:24. > :17:28.financial crash. Labour have not been in power since 2010, the
:17:29. > :17:40.Conservatives have under a majority government. From 979 billion... You
:17:41. > :17:48.cannot reduce debt until you reduce and eliminate the deficit. And you
:17:49. > :17:53.haven't done. You did say he would eliminated by 2015. The policies you
:17:54. > :17:59.are proposing beyond the care thing which we agree about will take us
:18:00. > :18:03.back into the deficit. Can I ask about the DUP and confidence and
:18:04. > :18:09.supply arrangement. Are you comfortable with that? I don't want
:18:10. > :18:16.to be in coalition. I am very uncomfortable with many of the
:18:17. > :18:21.social views as well, things I will literally never ever support.
:18:22. > :18:26.However, the party is entitled to vote for our economic programme and
:18:27. > :18:33.I hope an agreement can be made, confidence and supply agreement, can
:18:34. > :18:37.be made to do that. Are you worried that actually the Government has
:18:38. > :18:42.lost the capacity to hold the ring in the re-establishment of the
:18:43. > :18:55.Assembly in Northern Ireland? Because now they are seen to be in
:18:56. > :18:56.bed with one side, one party in that arrangement, and they can therefore
:18:57. > :19:01.no longer in an impartial way deal with both sides. Let him answer that
:19:02. > :19:04.straight question. I think transparency is important here and
:19:05. > :19:07.we need to know what has been offered to the DUP in order to gain
:19:08. > :19:15.the support, and the Government is not saying that. The deal as I
:19:16. > :19:19.understand is not done yet, so when it is done I agree it should be
:19:20. > :19:26.transparent. To answer your question, I do think that given the
:19:27. > :19:33.DUP want to get the power-sharing going again, I don't think this will
:19:34. > :19:38.be an impediment. As I say, if they want to agree with our economic
:19:39. > :19:43.programme, and if in return they want for example the long-term care
:19:44. > :19:47.we were just talking about, sheltered from the manifesto, fine,
:19:48. > :19:51.let them vote with our programme. Were you uncomfortable when Gordon
:19:52. > :19:58.Brown was having talks with the DUP in 2010? I have always said that if
:19:59. > :20:03.we are the largest single party, we should govern as a minority
:20:04. > :20:07.government. I believe it's the only honest way of doing things. Which
:20:08. > :20:14.the Tories are going to try to do here. They are doing a deal. No,
:20:15. > :20:18.it's a confidence and supply. Let's move on.
:20:19. > :20:20.Now, this morning it was the Brexit Secretary David Davis
:20:21. > :20:22.who was charged with getting the Government's message across.
:20:23. > :20:25.With negotiations due to start next week, he was asked
:20:26. > :20:26.whether the election would change their
:20:27. > :20:29.The thing to understand is that the fundamental central aim
:20:30. > :20:32.of trying to get a free trade agreement, a customs agreement,
:20:33. > :20:34.and a continuing agreement on security and other matters
:20:35. > :20:37.is still in the interests of both sides, so that
:20:38. > :20:41.And that's what we driving for, and, frankly, that's
:20:42. > :20:57.David Davis, Grant Shapps, do you accept Theresa May has no mandate
:20:58. > :21:03.now for what she said in that Lancaster house speech in terms of
:21:04. > :21:09.Brexit? No, firstly on Brexit I was a remainder. I like to think
:21:10. > :21:14.middle-of-the-road on this in as much as I would agree the country
:21:15. > :21:19.has voted to leave and we must now leave. And leave the single market?
:21:20. > :21:25.The implication is it is very hard to leave in any other way and fulfil
:21:26. > :21:31.the country has asked us to do but I've never been hardline about it.
:21:32. > :21:38.What does that mean, hard line? I have always felt having a manifesto
:21:39. > :21:42.objective of reducing immigration to an arbitrary figure of less than
:21:43. > :21:48.100,000 is to say that this fact is more important than our economy, and
:21:49. > :21:53.I think that is the wrong way round to have this. So you agree with Ruth
:21:54. > :21:56.Davidson, the leader of the Tories in Scotland, and had a very good
:21:57. > :22:01.night in her terms because she increased the number of seats in
:22:02. > :22:04.Scotland for the Conservatives? She says she wants to put the economy
:22:05. > :22:10.ahead of the issue of immigration, but what does that mean in terms of
:22:11. > :22:16.changing fundamentally the shape of Brexit? So yes, I do entirely agree
:22:17. > :22:20.with that. What it means is this. If you are talking about the single
:22:21. > :22:24.market, it is clear we cannot be in the single market because that
:22:25. > :22:27.requires completely free movement of people but we already accept in this
:22:28. > :22:33.country some people to come and go and there may be a deal around
:22:34. > :22:38.having some sort of visa system that enables people to work here, which
:22:39. > :22:47.provides sufficient movement for work and jobs only of course. Which
:22:48. > :22:50.might in your terms be a softer approach to Brexit rather than the
:22:51. > :22:56.hard lines of this only being about a particular figure. You were saying
:22:57. > :23:00.earlier about hardline or hard Brexit. So let's be specific about
:23:01. > :23:04.what we mean, you are still in agreement about leaving the single
:23:05. > :23:10.market? And still an agreement with what the party put in its manifesto
:23:11. > :23:17.on the customs union? So it's about tone? I think that is what the
:23:18. > :23:26.country itself agreed... And you are in total agreement with that too,
:23:27. > :23:30.Barry? Many Conservatives previously go along with a hard Brexit have now
:23:31. > :23:34.said it is the economy and jobs that must govern the ultimate deal we
:23:35. > :23:39.have with Europe. His Labour still committed to leaving the single
:23:40. > :23:43.market? Yes, because it is clear the single market is the internal market
:23:44. > :23:49.of the European Union, if we leave the European Union, then relieve the
:23:50. > :23:54.internal market and with that we cannot have a deal where there is
:23:55. > :23:59.single market or internal market that is without the four freedoms.
:24:00. > :24:02.What did you mean when you said, we need those benefits and when they
:24:03. > :24:09.are achieved through reformed membership of the single market,
:24:10. > :24:14.it's actually secondary to achieving the benefit. So for you you want to
:24:15. > :24:17.see a reformed membership of the single market? No, you have quoted
:24:18. > :24:23.me accurately but what I said was we wanted the benefits of the single
:24:24. > :24:28.market, which is exactly what Grant says he wants. We have been
:24:29. > :24:32.absolutely clear on this. We want those benefits, and actually the
:24:33. > :24:36.issue of how we get them is secondary... But that is not the
:24:37. > :24:39.same as reformed membership because you have said you still want
:24:40. > :24:47.membership of the single market, you just want to reform it. No, it said
:24:48. > :24:51.unless you can get a reform deal so that the whole way the internal
:24:52. > :24:55.market is structured as reformed... So you think you could stay in the
:24:56. > :25:00.single market and have a deal on immigration? The Government has
:25:01. > :25:05.ruled that out, we have said it is highly unlikely because of the
:25:06. > :25:08.reasons we have just talked about in terms of the four freedoms, the EU
:25:09. > :25:12.have made it clear they will not give membership of the internal
:25:13. > :25:16.market unless it is accompanied by the four freedoms. What we are
:25:17. > :25:23.saying is, if they were to offer that would we turn it down? So if
:25:24. > :25:29.they were to offer that, but reform the four freedoms you talked about,
:25:30. > :25:32.you would accept that? Then we have changed the basis of what EU
:25:33. > :25:39.membership constitutes. I think it is highly unlikely. I was simply
:25:40. > :25:43.being exact about where we were. But nothing has changed fundamentally.
:25:44. > :25:49.The two parties are exactly the same in terms of wanting to... Hang on,
:25:50. > :25:53.let me say what it is first. You are the same on the issue of coming out
:25:54. > :25:59.of the single market and coming out of the customs union? They would
:26:00. > :26:04.actually go to World Trade Organisation rules and David Davis
:26:05. > :26:09.on your programme made it quite clear he thinks that is something we
:26:10. > :26:14.should keep as a threat. This is something we think is ridiculous.
:26:15. > :26:20.It's not that that is no deal, there are outcomes here... I think I can
:26:21. > :26:23.clear this up actually. On the surface it sounds like we are saying
:26:24. > :26:30.the same thing about the single market and customs union but I think
:26:31. > :26:35.the approach you are suggesting where there is no backdrop, if we
:26:36. > :26:39.cannot get at least something reasonable we have negotiated, our
:26:40. > :26:44.backstop is to say no to a deal. If you don't say no to a deal, you tell
:26:45. > :26:49.people in our fans they can push you around. Now because of this election
:26:50. > :26:55.and what happened, and her call for a stronger mandate has been rejected
:26:56. > :27:00.by the people, the EU will now think they can probably push the UK
:27:01. > :27:09.around. To finish my previous point, this is what happened when David
:27:10. > :27:11.Cameron went to the EU to renegotiate, you made it clear there
:27:12. > :27:14.was nothing that would happen if they didn't give him anything, they
:27:15. > :27:19.didn't give him anything because they knew he had already shown his
:27:20. > :27:23.hand. It is like playing a very poor hand and you are proposing we do
:27:24. > :27:30.that as a country. Do you think it is a weak negotiating hand to save
:27:31. > :27:35.no deal is better than a bad deal? My point is simply this, that
:27:36. > :27:38.Article 50 being triggered, there's two years to conclude and
:27:39. > :27:47.negotiation before you were rejected onto WTO terms. World Trade
:27:48. > :27:54.Organisation. So the idea that somehow there is a cardio play...
:27:55. > :27:59.Let him answer. The idea that there is a card to be played here which is
:28:00. > :28:04.that we will walk away is nonsense. That is already built into the rules
:28:05. > :28:09.of these negotiations, and therefore the point here is which is the
:28:10. > :28:13.better outcome for the British people? Is it better to say that
:28:14. > :28:18.actually we will just not conclude and negotiation within that period
:28:19. > :28:22.and we will then go onto WTO rules which means we have all the tariff
:28:23. > :28:27.barriers, all the nontariff barriers, all the problems for our
:28:28. > :28:32.companies and businesses and exporters, or do we say that we must
:28:33. > :28:38.conclude a deal within that time, hopefully with transitional
:28:39. > :28:43.arrangements. We are going to have to finish it there but I want to say
:28:44. > :28:47.the Prime Minister's official spokesman has refused to confirm the
:28:48. > :28:51.date of the Queen's speech, the legislative programme that would be
:28:52. > :28:58.presented. It's going to be delayed for a few days, what does that say
:28:59. > :29:02.to you? I haven't heard that news. It has just been announced. If
:29:03. > :29:04.that's because they cannot agree on what to go in the Queen's speech?
:29:05. > :29:20.Let's move on. The general election in Scotland
:29:21. > :29:22.told a rather different story The Conservatives actually gained
:29:23. > :29:25.12 seats, the Scottish Conservative leader -
:29:26. > :29:27.Ruth Davidson - being seen as the party's knight in shining
:29:28. > :29:29.armour and yesterday. Miss Davidson, never shy
:29:30. > :29:31.of the cameras, staged a photo opportunity with the successful
:29:32. > :29:33.candidates that she's Labour were also successful,
:29:34. > :29:36.gaining six seats in Scotland, All of this at the expense
:29:37. > :29:41.of the SNP who, if you can Well, joining me now
:29:42. > :29:50.is the SNP's Stephen Gethins. Welcome to the programme. It was a
:29:51. > :29:56.bad night for you. We managed to win the majority of the seats in which
:29:57. > :29:59.we stored. We did lose seats and we lost some fine parliamentarians and
:30:00. > :30:03.that was obviously disappointing but we still managed to win the election
:30:04. > :30:12.in Scotland. But you went backwards and Ruth Davidson coined the phrase
:30:13. > :30:17.peeking out, do you agree with her? Lost some good colleagues, excellent
:30:18. > :30:21.parliamentarians and that was obviously disappointing. I'm
:30:22. > :30:27.disappointed to have lost Mike Weir, Alex Salmond, Angus Robertson, who
:30:28. > :30:31.have provided tremendous asset to the constituency and been strong
:30:32. > :30:36.voices for Scotland. Indyref2 is dead, isn't it? That is something
:30:37. > :30:42.the Scottish Parliament has voted on so I will leave it with the Scottish
:30:43. > :30:45.parliament. In your mind, plans for the second Scottish referendum,
:30:46. > :30:49.which you campaigned on, that has gone, you haven't got the mandate
:30:50. > :30:52.for it now? Something I found astonishing during the general
:30:53. > :30:55.election campaign was we spent a lot of time with the Tories and others
:30:56. > :31:01.wanting to talk about this rather than the records. The Tories had a
:31:02. > :31:06.poor record on where we are in Europe. They did well in Scotland
:31:07. > :31:12.for someone with a poor record. They still lost the election in Scotland
:31:13. > :31:22.but they made progress... There are more Tories in Scotland than pandas
:31:23. > :31:25.now, aren't there? We have to get more pandas! You didn't want to talk
:31:26. > :31:31.about it because you knew the people of Scotland didn't want it. We also
:31:32. > :31:32.need to talk about the Westminster issues. Like your record on
:31:33. > :31:42.education. We want to talk about issues like
:31:43. > :31:45.where you will get the funding from, there is a direct impact on
:31:46. > :31:48.education in Scotland. There were interesting remarks about the
:31:49. > :31:51.movement we will have to see, and critically something will have to
:31:52. > :31:55.happen down here, Westminster will have to change its culture and those
:31:56. > :31:59.of us at Westminster are going to have to talk to each other, find
:32:00. > :32:03.agreement where we can, and try to work together not least on Europe.
:32:04. > :32:07.Let's talk about Europe, Nicola Sturgeon called for a Brexit pause.
:32:08. > :32:12.Isn't the truth that you just want to stop it? Not at all, I think if
:32:13. > :32:15.you look back you will see the only Government to provided anything of
:32:16. > :32:19.substance around watch it happen next on Europe was the compromise
:32:20. > :32:23.the Scottish Government released across the UK, a pan UK compromise,
:32:24. > :32:27.if that was rejected there was a Scottish element as well. It was
:32:28. > :32:30.rejected by the Government at the time. Freedom of movement, EU
:32:31. > :32:34.nationals who have made this country that home should be allowed to stay,
:32:35. > :32:37.universities getting some kind of certainty, all these issues that are
:32:38. > :32:42.now open for discussion and that is why we are asking for a pause. You
:32:43. > :32:47.want to reopen the debate about the single market? I think we should be
:32:48. > :32:51.members of the single market. Asking for a pause the discussion. Given
:32:52. > :32:54.Theresa May has just taken six critical weeks out of the
:32:55. > :32:58.negotiation period, I think a few days to reflect on the general
:32:59. > :33:01.election, access the results, which the story still have to do, and have
:33:02. > :33:06.a discussion about what happens next... What gives the SNP the right
:33:07. > :33:12.to dictate what should happen now in terms of Brexit? You lost seats. I
:33:13. > :33:15.think you are falling back on the old Westminster habit of thinking
:33:16. > :33:18.1-party dictate. These are policy suggestions we are open to
:33:19. > :33:23.discussing with other political parties. These two have agreed,
:33:24. > :33:28.ostensibly, on Brexit in terms of single market membership, they want
:33:29. > :33:32.out. I would be surprised if the Labour Party will let the Tories off
:33:33. > :33:37.the hook so easily. You think Labour might be on your side for the single
:33:38. > :33:41.market? There are a large number of areas where we can find common
:33:42. > :33:43.ground with colleagues in the Labour Party, freedom of the bid, the
:33:44. > :33:49.single market, issues that have a direct impact on jobs and the
:33:50. > :33:53.economy and issues for young people. Ironically you could work with Ruth
:33:54. > :33:56.Davidson, CHI also wants to perhaps have an open discussion, she says,
:33:57. > :34:01.on Brexit and some of the areas around it, you could join with her.
:34:02. > :34:04.If I can find common ground on issues I think will benefit my
:34:05. > :34:08.constituents on these issues and of course I will work together with
:34:09. > :34:11.members of other political parties. In this parliament we will all have
:34:12. > :34:13.to get used to talking to one another, listening to one another as
:34:14. > :34:28.well. Gone are the days when the Tories can get a third of
:34:29. > :34:31.the vote and command a majority, those days have clearly gone now and
:34:32. > :34:34.in Hollywood it is something that has happened for years, Westminster
:34:35. > :34:37.will have to get behind it. How long do you want the talks to pause for?
:34:38. > :34:40.I think a few days while we have some time, let's see how long it
:34:41. > :34:42.takes because we have to reflect on the election result, the Tory hard
:34:43. > :34:44.Brexit is finished and we need to listen to people from other
:34:45. > :34:47.political parties, get the devolved administrations involved, which has
:34:48. > :34:50.not happened previously. Should the devolved administrations be
:34:51. > :34:54.involved? Ruth Davidson obviously wants to have more involvement and
:34:55. > :34:58.has some basis for fixing a muscle. What about bringing in the SNP and
:34:59. > :35:01.Labour in a more cross-party committee other than a select
:35:02. > :35:06.Committee which already exists on Brexit, to talk about it? It is a
:35:07. > :35:10.good idea to have a consensus in politics and I'm fascinated to hear
:35:11. > :35:16.it from the SNP. I used to stand just next Angus Robertson, and the
:35:17. > :35:20.banter backwards and forwards, he was the most tribal of politicians I
:35:21. > :35:26.ever used to come across. Unbelievable. And actually, as a
:35:27. > :35:34.group, I don't think there were more tribal group of MPs than the SNP.
:35:35. > :35:37.So, can you work... In the last Parliament, if you go back and look
:35:38. > :35:43.at the motions, my amendments on the European issue, I was able to get
:35:44. > :35:46.support from Labour, even some Tories, David Davis even backed my
:35:47. > :35:50.call for the referendum date to be changed. That was due to the
:35:51. > :35:54.approach of other colleagues in the house more than anything else. Where
:35:55. > :36:00.is the common ground between you? One of the key aspect where there is
:36:01. > :36:03.real disagreement on Brexit is over regulation and deregulation.
:36:04. > :36:07.Conservatives want a deregulated economy. In order to be able to
:36:08. > :36:14.continue to have the access of which Grant speaks but which his party has
:36:15. > :36:17.difficulty to negotiate because of their view on regulation, we
:36:18. > :36:22.actually need to have equivalents with the EU. Will you vote down the
:36:23. > :36:26.Great Repeal Bill? We have already said we will vote down the Great
:36:27. > :36:29.Repeal Bill because we want our rights and protections built,
:36:30. > :36:33.exactly that area of regulation, they want to do away with the
:36:34. > :36:38.regulations that are actually providing us with protection for our
:36:39. > :36:44.clean air, environmental, birds and habitats directive, something that
:36:45. > :36:48.the new Secretary of State, something for the new Secretary of
:36:49. > :36:53.State for environment... Who is Michael Gove, a great friend of
:36:54. > :36:58.yours. He has said he is against it. If you all talk over each other, no
:36:59. > :37:02.one can hear. The Great Repeal Bill thanks to take all of the
:37:03. > :37:05.legislation and put it into British law wholesale and in particular
:37:06. > :37:09.protect workers' rights and environmental. We have two ended
:37:10. > :37:15.there because we have to let Stephen Gethin 's goat. You won by two
:37:16. > :37:19.votes? Yes, they all count, that is the thing to take away, they all
:37:20. > :37:24.count in every constituency. Who will replace Angus Robertson in
:37:25. > :37:29.Westminster? That is something we have to discuss over the next few
:37:30. > :37:33.days, and also we need to take some time to relax and family and the
:37:34. > :37:37.public as well! Yesterday, Jeremy Corbyn said he is
:37:38. > :37:38.ready to fight another election this year. Theresa May said on the other
:37:39. > :37:45.hand she wants to fight of all time. So is there any public appetite
:37:46. > :37:53.for an early election? We thought we'd test that idea
:37:54. > :37:56.with the only scientific method known to man -
:37:57. > :38:01.the Daily Politics moodbox. We have only just recovered from the
:38:02. > :38:03.last one, and now we are asking whether we are going to do it again.
:38:04. > :38:08.The question for commuters, should there be another early election, yes
:38:09. > :38:16.or no? Why is that? We're exhausted! I've got loads of energy! I'm going
:38:17. > :38:25.to say yes. No, we have to get on and do stuff. Works, be productive.
:38:26. > :38:31.Yes, there should. Why? Because it is too unstable at the moment. Who
:38:32. > :38:35.is up for another early election? There has to be, nothing has been
:38:36. > :38:39.decided yet and we have doubts agreement across the political
:38:40. > :38:44.divide that we have. How soon? Within six months. We need a proper
:38:45. > :38:52.Government to negotiate on our behalf. You are up for another one?
:38:53. > :38:56.No, but I think we need one! I think now we will get a better opinion,
:38:57. > :39:01.people will see what other people have said, that we are fed up with
:39:02. > :39:09.it and need some more stability. No, we are fed up with elections. Fed up
:39:10. > :39:14.with it all? Yes! Made her mind up the first time, doesn't want to do
:39:15. > :39:24.it again. Sick of elections! Will you vote in hours? Oh, God. Oh, God,
:39:25. > :39:27.yes or no? It is disruptive, we should decide who is representing us
:39:28. > :39:32.before we go into those negotiations. Commuters, it seems,
:39:33. > :39:39.are up for it, because the yeses are pulling ahead. Yes or no? Doesn't
:39:40. > :39:47.vote, doesn't vote in elections... Yes or no? You have to give the ball
:39:48. > :39:59.back! Trying to steal our balls! He is up for it again. I am up for it
:40:00. > :40:09.again. She just voted in the wrong box! I am going to have to do this
:40:10. > :40:15.to balance it out. We've just been moved on! We're not wanted here.
:40:16. > :40:20.What's the point in doing something again when it was a disaster in the
:40:21. > :40:24.first place? She is the walking dead. No one wants to vote for her,
:40:25. > :40:28.no one is interested and I think it is back to the polls. There are lots
:40:29. > :40:33.of people who will want to express the feelings and I think another
:40:34. > :40:38.election would be a good way to do that. Would it turn out any
:40:39. > :40:40.different? I think it would. Voter fatigue? Not here. They want to go
:40:41. > :40:47.back to the ballot box. Barry, does it fill you with joy
:40:48. > :40:52.that there are people out there who would like to see a second election?
:40:53. > :40:56.I think, having just come off seven weeks of campaigning, I am weary and
:40:57. > :41:02.I don't fancy going straight back into it! Jeremy Corbyn does! But
:41:03. > :41:07.what I think is significant there is that Chaplin said, I don't want one
:41:08. > :41:12.but I think we need one. And actually what the country needs and
:41:13. > :41:16.what business needs is clarity and certainty, and at the moment what
:41:17. > :41:23.they have got is total instability. Why? Because we have a minority
:41:24. > :41:26.Government that doesn't know from day to day even whether it is going
:41:27. > :41:30.to put its own manifesto into the Queen's Speech, far less whether it
:41:31. > :41:34.is going to be able to deliver on any of the promises. And it has been
:41:35. > :41:38.delayed, the Queen's Speech, for a few days so we don't know when it
:41:39. > :41:41.will be. Grant, is she a dead man walking as George Osborne, former
:41:42. > :41:44.Chancellor, said yesterday, and therefore there has to be an
:41:45. > :41:50.election, just because you don't have a better idea at the moment? I
:41:51. > :41:53.watched that interview at the moment and you have to bear in mind that
:41:54. > :41:57.George was fired by Theresa so he certainly has some calls and
:41:58. > :42:03.passion, and I don't think that is necessarily the case. The reason I
:42:04. > :42:06.say that is, if this supply and confidence agreement gets going, the
:42:07. > :42:12.majority of 13 is actually not dissimilar to where we were in the
:42:13. > :42:17.last Parliament and actually the one we have just had for... But she has
:42:18. > :42:23.lost personal authority? We are able to get on and do the business of
:42:24. > :42:28.Government. Undeniably, it would be crazy to sit here and say, no, there
:42:29. > :42:32.is no loss of... It has only been four days and I hear what you are
:42:33. > :42:35.saying about timing and the Queen's Speech, it has only been three days
:42:36. > :42:39.since we had the results so I think allowing a little bit of time, we
:42:40. > :42:48.may find we have a more stable Government than anyone expects.
:42:49. > :42:50.We might all be photographers now - there were certainly plenty
:42:51. > :42:53.of selfies on the campaign trail - but sometimes there's no substitute
:42:54. > :42:57.And the master of political photography is Stefan Rousseau.
:42:58. > :43:00.If you see a picture of a politician in the papers, it's probably his.
:43:01. > :43:50.Here's a selection of his images from the election campaign.
:43:51. > :43:56.And the Press Association's Stefan Rousseau joins us now.
:43:57. > :44:04.It has been a memorable campaign, some people may not have enjoyed it
:44:05. > :44:08.as much as others, but what are your memories of the campaign? My
:44:09. > :44:12.memories are it has been a very controlled campaign, so soon after
:44:13. > :44:16.2015, it felt quite flat, there was not any great highlights. I don't
:44:17. > :44:21.remember anyone pictured jumping out at me like there was in 2015, 2010,
:44:22. > :44:22.you can go through all the campaigns and think of one picture but there
:44:23. > :44:37.is nothing for this one. None of the parties were really ready, they
:44:38. > :44:40.weren't prepared. That is the measure of a snap election, I
:44:41. > :44:42.suppose! Let's look at some of the photographs you have chosen, there
:44:43. > :44:44.is the first one, a picture from the first day of campaigning. This is
:44:45. > :44:46.Northumberland, the start of the campaign proper, the Conservative
:44:47. > :44:51.campaign bus in rural Northumberland but it was a sign of things to come
:44:52. > :44:54.because this is what we got, the Prime Minister on a platform with a
:44:55. > :44:58.very tight group of people around her, and this is what we saw, we
:44:59. > :45:02.went to so many places over a month and it was the same thing. Whether
:45:03. > :45:05.you think that is good or bad, it is not for me to judge, but from a
:45:06. > :45:10.photographer's point of view it is difficult to make it look
:45:11. > :45:13.different... And come alive. Let's look at the style in contrast of the
:45:14. > :45:26.Labour campaign, one picture from it, there is Jeremy Corbyn. A? This
:45:27. > :45:29.is Oxford East, the candidate and her family, but he was quite good at
:45:30. > :45:31.that, very natural, very good with children, and he seemed to enjoy and
:45:32. > :45:34.relish it, this was right at the beginning of the campaign and I
:45:35. > :45:37.think people saw this and thought, this is his strength, and they did
:45:38. > :45:39.more of this as the campaign went on. He is known, being a natural
:45:40. > :45:43.campaigner, you says himself he has campaigned almost permanently for 30
:45:44. > :45:47.years or so and actually this picture that you have picked out,
:45:48. > :45:51.the third one from the night of the party debate in Cambridge, which was
:45:52. > :45:56.a week or so before the election, that told a different story which
:45:57. > :46:00.was quite revealing. Indeed, if you look, Corbyn is leading everyone
:46:01. > :46:04.out, he's people would have loved this picture because he looks like
:46:05. > :46:06.he is in charge. Possibly the most senior politician, Amber Rudd,
:46:07. > :46:11.tucked in the doorway at the back and he is leading them out into the
:46:12. > :46:15.debate, Cambridge, I think, the BBC debate. Quite a strong picture for
:46:16. > :46:24.him. Natural as well because they didn't know I was there, I think had
:46:25. > :46:27.they known there would have been advisers are advising them not to
:46:28. > :46:29.walk that way, security guards, but they didn't know I was around the
:46:30. > :46:31.corner. It was an interesting line-up because they would not have
:46:32. > :46:36.thought about it but you captured them on the way at... He was going
:46:37. > :46:40.out first, not knowing there were any any cameras there. Symbolic that
:46:41. > :46:46.Amber Rudd, the minister, is at the back, and in between we have the
:46:47. > :46:49.other party leaders, Caroline Lucas on the Greens, Leanne Wood for Plaid
:46:50. > :46:53.Cymru and Tim Farron for the Liberal Democrats. And the final one you
:46:54. > :46:56.picked out from the weekend is when Theresa May returned to Number Ten
:46:57. > :47:02.Downing Street having been to see the Queen. What did this say to you?
:47:03. > :47:05.I did this same picture ten months ago when she walked through the door
:47:06. > :47:10.for the first time and the mood was remarkably the same, I was quite
:47:11. > :47:12.surprised. When they walk in traditionally the Prime Minister
:47:13. > :47:16.gets clapped in by the staff so I was there to record that, this great
:47:17. > :47:19.moment when the door first opened and she walks across the threshold
:47:20. > :47:23.and you get all the staff clapping on the way down. The mood was very
:47:24. > :47:31.similar, I wondered how it would be because it was not the victory she
:47:32. > :47:34.wanted but if you put the two pictures together from last year and
:47:35. > :47:36.this year you would not believe there was 12 months apart. And this
:47:37. > :47:39.was after, as Grant Shapps said, earlier she had not shown enough in
:47:40. > :47:43.terms of taking account from what happened on election night, there
:47:44. > :47:46.had been reports she had been crying overnight, which David Davis said he
:47:47. > :47:52.hadn't seen, but you could imagine that, in a way, when the results
:47:53. > :47:55.came in? I have heard everyone asked if she cried a lot but we have to
:47:56. > :48:00.accept none of us were there. But you can imagine how difficult it
:48:01. > :48:04.was. Fighting elections is quite an emotional business, you think about
:48:05. > :48:07.your own lives and your family and everyone you know, but if you are
:48:08. > :48:09.doing it as Prime Minister then of course the emotions must be much
:48:10. > :48:19.stronger because you have got a lot It had all been up all night the
:48:20. > :48:22.previous day so emotions run much stronger after that and goodness
:48:23. > :48:25.knows what was going through her mind. Walking through the door
:48:26. > :48:31.having not really achieved what she thought she was going to achieve.
:48:32. > :48:32.Stefan Rousseau, thank you very much.
:48:33. > :48:37.Let's get back into the here and now and speak to two people who use
:48:38. > :48:39.the notebook and pen rather than the camera to
:48:40. > :48:53.Jack Blanchard of the Mirror and Sam Coates of the Times.
:48:54. > :48:58.Your reflections of today, she's going to have to address her own
:48:59. > :49:04.MPs, what's that going to be like for her, Sam Coates? Undoubtedly
:49:05. > :49:07.quite sticky but there is one driving force underneath everything
:49:08. > :49:12.that's going on at the moment. Over the weekend the Tory MPs took a look
:49:13. > :49:16.at Theresa May and decided about Prime Minister is better than no
:49:17. > :49:20.Prime Minister. They decide they didn't want a leadership contest
:49:21. > :49:25.because it might destabilise a Prime Minister hanging by a thread even
:49:26. > :49:35.more and lead to a general election. Why don't they want a general
:49:36. > :49:37.election? Because they are worried Labour might do even better,
:49:38. > :49:40.propelling Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street. So however sticky it
:49:41. > :49:43.is, and it will be sticky, they are basically setting I suspect a low
:49:44. > :49:50.bar for Theresa May this afternoon and they will complained but they
:49:51. > :49:53.want to make sure she functions as a Prime Minister for now while they
:49:54. > :49:57.work out what to do with that manifesto that was so palpably
:49:58. > :50:04.unpopular. But there are challenges to functioning, to use your word.
:50:05. > :50:10.The DUP said there hadn't been a deal over the weekend, it was
:50:11. > :50:15.corrected by Michael Fallon today. We were expecting the Queen's speech
:50:16. > :50:20.on a date and now that has been delayed so are we already seeing
:50:21. > :50:23.difficulties here to hold it together? You bet. We have a Prime
:50:24. > :50:28.Minister who spent seven weeks warning the nation about a coalition
:50:29. > :50:32.of chaos that would happen if Jeremy Corbyn was voted into power and two
:50:33. > :50:36.days after the election she is at the helm of a coalition of chaos.
:50:37. > :50:48.She has been unable to strike a deal with the DUP so far,
:50:49. > :50:52.the Queen's speech has been delayed, we don't know if the Brexit talks
:50:53. > :50:54.will start on time. The Government is floundering around and all the
:50:55. > :50:57.things she was scaremongering before the election have come to pass but
:50:58. > :51:02.with her at the helm. How long do you think she will survive, Sam
:51:03. > :51:07.Coates? I think it will be months not weeks. She has effectively got
:51:08. > :51:16.two coalitions in her own party that she has to manage. She has the DUP
:51:17. > :51:22.and those talks are ongoing, but she also has the Scottish Tories under
:51:23. > :51:26.Ruth Davidson. It looks pretty tricky. I don't think necessarily
:51:27. > :51:32.the delay of the Queen's speech is a sign there is a crisis but she needs
:51:33. > :51:35.to get a deal with both sides that keeps everybody happy and in the end
:51:36. > :51:39.I think the thing that will trip her up as legislation and what happens
:51:40. > :51:46.in the House of Commons. Let's talk about Labour, Jack. Jeremy Corbyn is
:51:47. > :51:50.feeling jubilant even though Labour lost the election and there is a
:51:51. > :51:53.sense there may be discussions on Brexit. John McDonnell was clear
:51:54. > :51:58.about coming out of the single market but do you think there are
:51:59. > :52:02.potential problems for that line within Labour? I think there could
:52:03. > :52:06.be but they are trying to keep it as vague as possible because the moment
:52:07. > :52:11.they try to pin it down to firm with the same divisions will open up in
:52:12. > :52:16.Labour as well. Jeremy Corbyn is riding sky-high at the moment,
:52:17. > :52:21.nobody thought he would pull off this election... And nobody will
:52:22. > :52:26.challenge him. Exactly. But I do think the is nuanced with regards to
:52:27. > :52:31.access to the single market, what does that mean, the terms are quite
:52:32. > :52:36.vague and I think Labour will be able to forge it for now. Both of
:52:37. > :52:41.you, does it matter who the papers back any more in elections? We offer
:52:42. > :52:48.strong and stable coverage of everybody. Well done! I'm not sure
:52:49. > :52:54.that phrase will be used in future elections. It's not very often the
:52:55. > :52:59.Mirror chalks up what it can call a win and we will take this one! I
:53:00. > :53:01.will leave on a high then for both of you. Thank you.
:53:02. > :53:03.So, all the pollsters got the general election result
:53:04. > :53:08.There was one polling company, called Survation, that predicted
:53:09. > :53:15.Their chief executive, Damian Lyons-Lowe, came
:53:16. > :53:18.on the programme on the eve of polling day last week, and,
:53:19. > :53:19.well, got a predictably sceptical reception.
:53:20. > :53:22.One point would mean a hung parliament and the Tories
:53:23. > :53:28.It would mean, using our most recent Scotland figures
:53:29. > :53:30.from the Sunday Post, plugging those into a Scotland
:53:31. > :53:35.predictor and plugging the... doing a simple national swing
:53:36. > :53:38.and a few tweaks, nothing too special, it would mean
:53:39. > :53:41.there would be a no overall majority situation with at least
:53:42. > :53:44.a requirement for support from the DUP and perhaps
:53:45. > :53:51.That's a yes, it's a hung parliament?
:53:52. > :53:54.I was giving you my workings, so, yes, a hung parliament.
:53:55. > :54:00.I was beginning to lose the will to live!
:54:01. > :54:03.I'm a massive outlier here, I'm going to be the most
:54:04. > :54:06.wrong or the most right, so I think showing my working...
:54:07. > :54:08.As they say in Glasgow, is your jacket hanging
:54:09. > :54:24.Is this Survation poll an outlier or in the mainstream?
:54:25. > :54:36.It's an outlier and, in a word, no, I don't think so.
:54:37. > :54:39.Things turned out Damian's, not Deborah's way, and so we've
:54:40. > :54:44.brought them both back together this afternoon.
:54:45. > :54:53.We are good like that on the Daily Politics. You should eat it, like
:54:54. > :54:59.Paddy Ashdown had to eat his hat. Why did you get its own right and
:55:00. > :55:03.others got it wrong? Because we have a consistent method that is
:55:04. > :55:14.delivered a consistent results, and in short everybody else apart from
:55:15. > :55:19.us had changed the turnout models to assume that voters would behave in a
:55:20. > :55:25.certain way, and it have the effects of suppressing increases in Labour
:55:26. > :55:32.support and the support from the young, and suppressing the reverse.
:55:33. > :55:38.So effectively the fully weighted raw numbers were correct, we all had
:55:39. > :55:43.the correct average Conservative and Labour numbers. However, after that
:55:44. > :55:49.weeks they had done to correct the problems after the 2015 election, it
:55:50. > :55:55.have the effect of Dublin the Conservative lead over Labour --
:55:56. > :55:59.doubling. You can eat your humble pie now if you like but in terms of
:56:00. > :56:05.a knee jerk reaction do you think there was overcompensation from
:56:06. > :56:10.getting it wrong in 2015? It is so interesting, it is all about how the
:56:11. > :56:15.data was weighted, but you look at its constituency by constituency, it
:56:16. > :56:21.looks like it might be to do with a broader... Under 30s rather than
:56:22. > :56:25.under 24s, and there might be an education thing as well. So the
:56:26. > :56:30.constituencies where there were more graduates for example had a higher
:56:31. > :56:36.turnout and favoured Labour. But was it simply a case of many more young
:56:37. > :56:40.people turning out to vote or is that too simplistic? There were
:56:41. > :56:44.seats like Canterbury for example, which has been Conservative for as
:56:45. > :56:49.long as I remember and it went Labour. Was that down to lots of
:56:50. > :56:54.young people, and when I say young I mean under 35. There are
:56:55. > :56:59.constituency by constituency examples. Let's take Cardiff
:57:00. > :57:04.Central, where you have got something like 34% of the population
:57:05. > :57:12.are 18-24. In that case you will have an extreme example of 18-24
:57:13. > :57:19.getting that percentage correct. But the problem is they don't turnout.
:57:20. > :57:26.Sorry to interrupt but they did turn out in the EU referendum, 60% of
:57:27. > :57:32.them turned out 18-24s, and both that group and 30-35 groups had
:57:33. > :57:37.shown net new registrations up since the comparable period in the 2015
:57:38. > :57:43.general election, so this is a broad... And one more point is that
:57:44. > :57:47.our method also factors in the likelihood to vote of older people.
:57:48. > :57:51.There were lots of policies that were unattractive for older people
:57:52. > :57:55.and it may have affected the turnout. We were all discussing the
:57:56. > :57:59.winter fuel payments, the social care policy that would now include
:58:00. > :58:04.your house, that must have had an impact. When we get the detail from
:58:05. > :58:10.the exit poll we will know for sure but my hunch is that older people
:58:11. > :58:14.also sat on the hands of it. That seems to make sense, which would
:58:15. > :58:18.obviously be damaging for the Conservatives. But broadly, the
:58:19. > :58:25.Tories have a problem with young voters. That last point was
:58:26. > :58:32.absolutely right, door after door of older voters saying I'm not going to
:58:33. > :58:38.vote. And on the young? Yes, this particular generation have forgotten
:58:39. > :58:43.that Labour introduced tuition fees. These things change every election.
:58:44. > :58:53.When have you done really well amongst the 18-25s? We have done
:58:54. > :58:58.very well in Scotland in the past and now come back in Scotland, and
:58:59. > :59:02.for example in 2015 people told me as party chairman we cannot win with
:59:03. > :59:07.ethnic minorities and we did a lot better if not win with that group.
:59:08. > :59:11.Labour canvassing got it wrong a lot of the time. Speaking off the record
:59:12. > :59:16.to Labour candidates at the time, they weren't sensing Labour would do
:59:17. > :59:21.as well as they did in terms of the share of the vote so what went
:59:22. > :59:25.wrong? It is actually what went right. We were doing the work but
:59:26. > :59:29.this was a short campaign. You cannot get round your entire
:59:30. > :59:34.electorate, and in a short campaign you focus on the people who
:59:35. > :59:37.previously have canvassed for you and the to a certain extent you are
:59:38. > :59:43.trying to shore up the vote you think will be yours. We are out of
:59:44. > :59:51.programme time, we literally have ten seconds. Inquiry, yes or no?
:59:52. > :59:56.Yes. I think it is so obviously doesn't need an inquiry. Thank you
:59:57. > :59:59.to you for being my guests today. I will be back tomorrow with more.
:00:00. > :00:10.Goodbye. For the first time, the Science
:00:11. > :00:13.Museum is opening its doors so you can vote for
:00:14. > :00:17.Britain's greatest invention.