0:00:37 > 0:00:39Hello, and welcome to the Daily Politics.
0:00:39 > 0:00:43The Prime Minister is meeting EU leaders in Sweden today
0:00:43 > 0:00:46as Brexit Secretary David Davis says it's time for the EU
0:00:46 > 0:00:50to compromise in the Brexit talks.
0:00:50 > 0:00:54But are European leaders in the mood to give ground?
0:00:54 > 0:00:55Are the Russians coming?
0:00:55 > 0:00:58Or are they already here?
0:00:58 > 0:01:00As new evidence emerges of Kremlin interference in elections, how
0:01:00 > 0:01:06worried should we be here in dear old Blighty?
0:01:06 > 0:01:08As the EU signs what leaders have called
0:01:08 > 0:01:12an "historic" agreement on defence cooperation,
0:01:12 > 0:01:16are we edging closer to the much-vaunted EU army?
0:01:16 > 0:01:19And do you know your quantitative easing
0:01:19 > 0:01:22from your high yield gilts?
0:01:22 > 0:01:26Where are you on the market equilibrium price index?
0:01:26 > 0:01:29With Philip Hammond due to give his Budget on Wednesday,
0:01:29 > 0:01:32we'll bust the economic jargon.
0:01:38 > 0:01:40All that in the next hour.
0:01:40 > 0:01:43And with us for the programme today
0:01:43 > 0:01:51is Rachel Sylvester from the Times and Toby Young from the Spectator.
0:01:51 > 0:01:57They are here to offer informed, incisive and intelligent analysis.
0:01:57 > 0:01:59Well, just days to go to the Budget - widely
0:01:59 > 0:02:01seen at Westminster as a last
0:02:01 > 0:02:03chance not just for the Chancellor but for Mrs May
0:02:03 > 0:02:04to reboot her government
0:02:04 > 0:02:07and talk about something other than Brexit.
0:02:07 > 0:02:12Among the likely measures, we are promised a singificant
0:02:12 > 0:02:16announcment on housing.
0:02:16 > 0:02:19-- significant announcement.
0:02:19 > 0:02:21Indeed Mrs May yesterday said it remained her personal mission
0:02:21 > 0:02:23to solve the housing crisis.
0:02:23 > 0:02:24The Communities Secretary Sajid Javid,
0:02:24 > 0:02:26who last month suggested borrowing £50 billion
0:02:26 > 0:02:28to boost house building, took on the Nimbys.
0:02:28 > 0:02:32My message to campaigners, whether they are in the west
0:02:32 > 0:02:35of England area or anywhere else that are, let's say,
0:02:35 > 0:02:39anti-development, is, really, think about your children
0:02:39 > 0:02:41and your grandchildren.
0:02:41 > 0:02:44I've found as an MP, people will come to see me
0:02:44 > 0:02:47and the person that's come to see me one week will say,
0:02:47 > 0:02:51"The house prices are too expensive, my granddaughter can't afford
0:02:51 > 0:02:53anything - what's your government going to do about it?"
0:02:53 > 0:02:57And a few weeks later the same person is writing to me and saying
0:02:57 > 0:02:59they don't want that development across the road.
0:02:59 > 0:03:01So we need to get more people to really think
0:03:01 > 0:03:11about the consequences of what they're saying.
0:03:11 > 0:03:15Well, big, bold talk on housing but if we are honest, how many times
0:03:15 > 0:03:19have we heard prime ministers and others talking about tackling the
0:03:19 > 0:03:24housing crisis? Do you get any sense, Rachel, that this time is
0:03:24 > 0:03:27going to be different?Yes, I think there is a genuine desire in
0:03:27 > 0:03:31government to do something and the politics of this fascinating. I
0:03:31 > 0:03:33think the Conservatives understand that they are in devastating
0:03:33 > 0:03:38position with young voters did at the election, young voters voted in
0:03:38 > 0:03:42droves for Jeremy Corbyn and the Tories in one recent poll were for %
0:03:42 > 0:03:47in the polls among young voters on housing and there's a sense that
0:03:47 > 0:03:52they are almost in danger of losing a generation. David Willetts, the
0:03:52 > 0:03:56former cabinet minister, compared it to me recently to a film where a
0:03:56 > 0:04:01French farmer plugs up a spring hoping to improve his own chances
0:04:01 > 0:04:05and ends up destroying his own livelihood, and the Tories are
0:04:05 > 0:04:10blocking up their source of voters by preventing young people from
0:04:10 > 0:04:14joining the property owning democracy.Toby, that is a high-risk
0:04:14 > 0:04:22strategy and away Sajid Javid was on the front page saying, come on, you
0:04:22 > 0:04:25oldies, but the oldies are the young people who vote for the Tories.I
0:04:25 > 0:04:29think that isn't dramatic of a broader problem the Tories have
0:04:29 > 0:04:34which is that they want to stimulate house-building in the budget along
0:04:34 > 0:04:39those lines, 220,000 houses have been built on last year, the highest
0:04:39 > 0:04:42number since the 2008 credit crunch. Things are beginning to head in the
0:04:42 > 0:04:45right direction but the difficulty the Conservative Party is that one
0:04:45 > 0:04:49of the main obstacles to housing development is the opposition of
0:04:49 > 0:04:55locals who don't want new houses in their backyard, particularly in the
0:04:55 > 0:04:59green belt and other areas of metropolitan open land and so forth
0:04:59 > 0:05:04and it doesn't feel like there's going to be any changes to the
0:05:04 > 0:05:07planning regulations, any major changes, and Sagittarius Road bar,
0:05:07 > 0:05:14so all he can do, he is reduced to applying moral pressure.Isn't the
0:05:14 > 0:05:17danger that he and Mrs May raise expectations so high in the budget,
0:05:17 > 0:05:23which at the end we could get a mini announcement, which is good news,
0:05:23 > 0:05:27but it doesn't crack the housing problem because it is so massive?
0:05:27 > 0:05:30Absolutely and also calm before the election and to some extent now,
0:05:30 > 0:05:35Theresa May is one of the main roadblocks to planning laws on the
0:05:35 > 0:05:39green belt. So Sajid Javid has been pushing for more radical reform and
0:05:39 > 0:05:47I wonder whether an attack on a selfish baby boomers is actually not
0:05:47 > 0:05:52too disguised appointed dig at Mrs May who is the most important baby
0:05:52 > 0:05:55boomer and maybe the most significant NIMBY in the country.We
0:05:55 > 0:05:59are going to leave it there.
0:05:59 > 0:06:02So, as we move to the sharp end of the Brexit negotiations and ever
0:06:02 > 0:06:05closer to the December deadline for deciding whether the EU
0:06:05 > 0:06:07will agree to move on to trade talks,
0:06:07 > 0:06:08both sides appear to be digging in.
0:06:08 > 0:06:11The EU Council President Donald Tusk in effect telling Mrs May today
0:06:11 > 0:06:14that it's time she got a move on and agreed to hand
0:06:14 > 0:06:16over more cash.
0:06:16 > 0:06:20Mrs May has so far agreed to pay £18 billion - amid signs the EU
0:06:20 > 0:06:24is looking for nearer to 50 to 60 billion.
0:06:24 > 0:06:27Well, this morning there was a concerted push back
0:06:27 > 0:06:30by the British side - with Brexit Secretary David Davis
0:06:30 > 0:06:32telling my colleague Laura Kuenssberg it was time
0:06:32 > 0:06:37for the EU to compromise more.
0:06:37 > 0:06:39In a negotiation, you want the other side to compromise.
0:06:39 > 0:06:40I want them to compromise.
0:06:40 > 0:06:42Surprise surprise, nothing comes for nothing in this world.
0:06:42 > 0:06:44But so far in this negotiation, we've made quite
0:06:44 > 0:06:50a lot of compromises.
0:06:50 > 0:06:57On the citizens' rights front, we've made all the running.
0:06:57 > 0:07:00We've made the running in terms of things like the right to vote,
0:07:00 > 0:07:02where the European Union then doesn't seem able to agree
0:07:02 > 0:07:05that everybody involved, the 3 million Europeans in Britain,
0:07:05 > 0:07:07the million Brits abroad, should be able to vote.
0:07:07 > 0:07:08They can't do that.
0:07:08 > 0:07:10So we have been offering some quite creative compromises.
0:07:10 > 0:07:14We haven't always got that back.
0:07:14 > 0:07:17Well, at the same time, also enduring an early-morning
0:07:17 > 0:07:18round of media inquisitions was the Foreign
0:07:18 > 0:07:24Secretary Boris Johnson.
0:07:24 > 0:07:27He too seemed intent on pointing the figner of blame at the EU.
0:07:27 > 0:07:30Asked about the vexed and unresolved issue of the border
0:07:30 > 0:07:32between Northern Ireland and the Republic,
0:07:32 > 0:07:35Mr Johnson suggested any breakthrough depended on Brussels
0:07:35 > 0:07:37agreeing to move on to trade talks.
0:07:37 > 0:07:42Nobody wants to see a return to a hard border.
0:07:42 > 0:07:46Nobody wants to see a hard border.
0:07:46 > 0:07:50We must work on it and we've got to work on it together and I think
0:07:50 > 0:07:55what I would say to you is that in order to resolve those issues
0:07:55 > 0:07:58and get it right for our peoples, it's necessary now to move
0:07:58 > 0:08:02onto the second stage of the negotiations, which really
0:08:02 > 0:08:12entail so many of the questions that are bound up with the border issue.
0:08:13 > 0:08:15The Prime Minister, in Gothenburg for an EU social summit -
0:08:15 > 0:08:18and no, that's not dad dancing and party frocks, it's all
0:08:18 > 0:08:21about jobs and employment rights - was rather less forthright
0:08:21 > 0:08:24but nevertheless urged the EU to respond positively.
0:08:24 > 0:08:27We look forward to the European Council and we're continuing
0:08:27 > 0:08:29to look through the issues.
0:08:29 > 0:08:33I was clear in my speech in Florence that we will honour our commitments.
0:08:33 > 0:08:36But, of course, we want to move forward together, talking
0:08:36 > 0:08:39about the trade issues and trade partnership for the future.
0:08:39 > 0:08:41I've set out a vision for that economic partnership.
0:08:41 > 0:08:47I look forward to the European Union responding positively to that
0:08:47 > 0:08:51so we can move forward together and ensure that we can get the best
0:08:51 > 0:08:53possible arrangements for the future that will be good for people
0:08:53 > 0:08:56in the United Kingdom and across the remaining EU 27.
0:08:56 > 0:08:59So how is this tough talk from the British Government likely
0:08:59 > 0:09:01to go down with other EU leaders?
0:09:01 > 0:09:03Well, we're joined now from Gothenberg by our Europe
0:09:03 > 0:09:07correspondent Kevin Connolly.
0:09:07 > 0:09:13Do you get the sense that, as we approach December, other EU leaders
0:09:13 > 0:09:24are in a mood now to cut Mrs May some slack?I think part of what is
0:09:24 > 0:09:28going on on it goes to the heart of a problem which has been hovering
0:09:28 > 0:09:32over the Brexit process all along, and that is where the UK tends to
0:09:32 > 0:09:36see this as a negotiation between equals, a moment of mutual
0:09:36 > 0:09:41opportunity even, if you like, sometimes, the other EU countries
0:09:41 > 0:09:46see it as a problem of Britain's on making and they clearly, you
0:09:46 > 0:09:50sometimes get the impression, don't feel very much impetus to help
0:09:50 > 0:09:54Britain out of a hole which, in their view, Britain has dogged by
0:09:54 > 0:09:57deciding to leave. So you had all sort of talk this morning which
0:09:57 > 0:10:02doesn't imply that nothing has been done, doesn't imply that nothing is
0:10:02 > 0:10:07happening. There is an acceptance that Britain has moved, but a pretty
0:10:07 > 0:10:10universal sense, Al, that Britain has to move a bit more and I thought
0:10:10 > 0:10:16the most cutting remark in a sense came from the generally pretty well
0:10:16 > 0:10:21disposed and support of Irish Prime Minister Leo Radtke, who said that
0:10:21 > 0:10:24when you look to the whole thing in the round and considered all of the
0:10:24 > 0:10:31various problems that remain to be resolved, he sometimes wondered if
0:10:31 > 0:10:35supporters of Brexit had thought everything through before they
0:10:35 > 0:10:40embarked on the project.Is there a possibility that the EU could say no
0:10:40 > 0:10:46in December, we are going to have to wait until March? We understand they
0:10:46 > 0:10:50are preparing informal grounds for moving to trade talks, so is the
0:10:50 > 0:10:54reality that despite all the language, they will in the end move
0:10:54 > 0:11:01on in December?No, I think a no in December is a real, looming
0:11:01 > 0:11:05possibility. The signal they are trying to send is that if the UK
0:11:05 > 0:11:10really wants that move in December, wants to stop talking about divorce
0:11:10 > 0:11:14issues and start talking about trade and transition, then the EU's
0:11:14 > 0:11:17position is not changing, it is that you've got to get those divorce
0:11:17 > 0:11:24issues finalised - saids' writes, the Irish border and money - before
0:11:24 > 0:11:28you get trade and transition and what they are trying to say is that
0:11:28 > 0:11:33any attempt to pick them off one by one in bilateral meetings, any
0:11:33 > 0:11:38attempt to try to meld the two issues together, future trade for
0:11:38 > 0:11:42example and the Irish border, they just won't accept. Leo Varadkar was
0:11:42 > 0:11:46saying to me early on that he thought it might be desirable to
0:11:46 > 0:11:53write that commitment about the future of a hardboard at in Ireland
0:11:53 > 0:11:56into an agreement and that is something we've not really heard
0:11:56 > 0:12:00before and would potentially be problematic and would been there is
0:12:00 > 0:12:04still quite a lot of detail to be talked about. We started talking
0:12:04 > 0:12:08about progress in December because there was no progress on October. It
0:12:08 > 0:12:11is not really a deadline in any meaningful sense and the real
0:12:11 > 0:12:16problem for the UK side is that the EU would seem much more merit in
0:12:16 > 0:12:19sticking together on this than it will in trying to engineer a
0:12:19 > 0:12:28compromise.Thank you. We are joined by the Conservative MEP David
0:12:28 > 0:12:30Campbell Bannerman. We are going to have to pay more and probably quite
0:12:30 > 0:12:35a bit more.Depends on the commitments. The question is, what
0:12:35 > 0:12:38are we paying for? The EU wants as much money as possible and are doing
0:12:38 > 0:12:43the same as Switzerland. They are desperate for cash. But what are we
0:12:43 > 0:12:48paying for?Lizard is past commitments for things like
0:12:48 > 0:12:53pensions, programmes we've already signed up for, and that could go up
0:12:53 > 0:12:59to 50, 60 billion, provided as is past payments, that is OK?For
0:12:59 > 0:13:04goodwill reasons, it makes sense to fund the multi-annual financial
0:13:04 > 0:13:09framework until 2020.Which we've already agreed to.I think that does
0:13:09 > 0:13:14make sense. There will be some ongoing liabilities, such as
0:13:14 > 0:13:18pensions etc, I understand that, but you're not talking about 50 or 60
0:13:18 > 0:13:25billion, but a lot smaller.What are we talking about?20, 30, possibly
0:13:25 > 0:13:28but that is three times our net contributions.What of the EU say,
0:13:28 > 0:13:31thanks very much but we are not interested, you've got to increase
0:13:31 > 0:13:40it?It puts us in no deal and I have no problem with no deal. Most of the
0:13:40 > 0:13:45world trade are no deal. United States, China, Japan, India, Russia,
0:13:45 > 0:13:50is EU rules. We would have to compensate about £5 billion of
0:13:50 > 0:13:55tariffs but the EU will have to find 13 million of tariff compensation.
0:13:55 > 0:13:58Are you unhappy with the direction of travel in these negotiation is by
0:13:58 > 0:14:02the Brexit secretary? Because we are getting indications that probably
0:14:02 > 0:14:07more than what you are talking about will be put on the table and we know
0:14:07 > 0:14:09the European Court of Justice is continuing to have oversight during
0:14:09 > 0:14:14the transition period, indeed there will be new rules and judgments we
0:14:14 > 0:14:17will have to accept. There will be a transitional period, might be two
0:14:17 > 0:14:22years, might be longer. How do you feel about that approach to
0:14:22 > 0:14:25negotiations?I think David Davis is doing a great job.Even though he
0:14:25 > 0:14:30has conceded all that?He is negotiating. The point about the
0:14:30 > 0:14:35ECJ, I did look into this and asked President Jean-Claude Younger about
0:14:35 > 0:14:39it, and he said, you have to get a divorce before even going to a new
0:14:39 > 0:14:45relationship. I don't like the ECJ being subject to it but during the
0:14:45 > 0:14:50transitional period it is the only way we are going to do it.How do
0:14:50 > 0:14:54you respond to someone like Jacob Rees-Mogg, who is clear on this. If
0:14:54 > 0:15:00you are taking laws from Europe you have not left Europe?The
0:15:00 > 0:15:04transitional period is less than two years but what you have to look at,
0:15:04 > 0:15:08and I've looked into this recently, the EU law states you have to be a
0:15:08 > 0:15:13third country before you can even do a deal with the EU, so you do need a
0:15:13 > 0:15:18transition. The ECJ has to agree this deal under EU law. So I'm more
0:15:18 > 0:15:22relaxed about it. I don't like it but I'm more relaxed about it and I
0:15:22 > 0:15:28think it is the right way to go.
0:15:28 > 0:15:33Toby, I read in one of the papers, some German businessman who David
0:15:33 > 0:15:37Davis was talking to saying he expected unconditional surrender
0:15:37 > 0:15:41from Britain. At the end of the day, aren't we going to have to cough up
0:15:41 > 0:15:46lots of money?I think we are going to have to pay many billions if we
0:15:46 > 0:15:50are going to secure a deal. I'm optimistic of making more
0:15:50 > 0:15:55progress... It looks like there might be a Cabinet consent for about
0:15:55 > 0:16:0440 billion. Maybe somewhere between 20 and 40. I'm optimistic that there
0:16:04 > 0:16:09will be progress because this baby from the EU's point of view the
0:16:09 > 0:16:13optimal time to make a deal about the money. If Theresa May doesn't
0:16:13 > 0:16:18get a deal and it has to be postponed until March, her political
0:16:18 > 0:16:22position becomes precarious and there is a risk that she could be
0:16:22 > 0:16:26replaced by someone who is much less willing to come up with those sort
0:16:26 > 0:16:29of numbers. From their point of view, this is the prime time to
0:16:29 > 0:16:37strike a deal.Our one card is cash, if we play it now when it comes to
0:16:37 > 0:16:42trade talks, we've played our big card.I don't think it is our only
0:16:42 > 0:16:50card. We export more to the EU... Sorry, we import more than we export
0:16:50 > 0:16:58to the EU. I'm optimistic. On the ECJ point, I think within the
0:16:58 > 0:17:04Cabinet even Michael Gove said he'd be prepared to accept Britain being
0:17:04 > 0:17:07subject to ECJ rulings during the transitional period providing it's
0:17:07 > 0:17:14made clear that following exit we are no longer subject to them. That
0:17:14 > 0:17:20would be difficult with potential trading partners if they thought we
0:17:20 > 0:17:27would be subject to those regulations after departure.The
0:17:27 > 0:17:31Brexiteers seem to be on board about things a few months ago they would
0:17:31 > 0:17:36have been up in arms about. We see it on cash, transition, what is
0:17:36 > 0:17:49going on?The Brexiteer dart are not united. David Davis said yesterday
0:17:49 > 0:17:52don't put politics above prosperity. The real politics involved in this
0:17:52 > 0:17:58is the politics of the Tory party. You have Brexiteers who are willing
0:17:58 > 0:18:03to strike a deal that will lead to a better result in the end but there
0:18:03 > 0:18:08are some who are absolutely not willing. Theresa May is having a
0:18:08 > 0:18:13very difficult time striking that balance.David Davis in his
0:18:13 > 0:18:25interview this morning said to -- seem to be pointing the finger of
0:18:25 > 0:18:32blame at Europe.Eight countries in the EU have 90% of all the trade. A
0:18:32 > 0:18:39lot of the other countries Denmark, the Dutch, do want a trade deal. I
0:18:39 > 0:18:42think they are getting it. The Germans are getting nervous,
0:18:42 > 0:18:48industry is getting nervous in Germany. No deal hurts the EU far
0:18:48 > 0:18:52more than it does is because we are the second largest importer of goods
0:18:52 > 0:18:56and services in the world after the United States.Thank you very much
0:18:56 > 0:18:57indeed.
0:18:57 > 0:19:00Now, are the Russians coming?
0:19:00 > 0:19:02Or, more to the point, are they already here?
0:19:02 > 0:19:03Earlier this week, the Prime Minister accused Moscow
0:19:03 > 0:19:06of "planting fake stories" to "sow discord in the West".
0:19:06 > 0:19:09The Kremlin have denied all accusations of election meddling
0:19:09 > 0:19:13and cyber-espionage, but new data this week showed
0:19:13 > 0:19:17Russian Twitter accounts posted more than 45,000 messages about Brexit
0:19:17 > 0:19:21in 48 hours during last year's referendum.
0:19:21 > 0:19:24So, should we be worried or is this all much ado about nothing?
0:19:24 > 0:19:27Here's Ellie.
0:19:27 > 0:19:30So I have a very simple message for Russia -
0:19:30 > 0:19:34we know what you are doing and you will not succeed.
0:19:34 > 0:19:36The Prime Minister was talking about this sort of thing -
0:19:36 > 0:19:38a tweet posted after the Westminster Bridge
0:19:38 > 0:19:41terror attack.
0:19:41 > 0:19:44The user, who describes themselves as an American patriot,
0:19:44 > 0:19:46posted an image of a young Muslim appearing to ignore
0:19:46 > 0:19:48the mayhem behind.
0:19:48 > 0:19:50Although shared thousands of times, it was a fake
0:19:50 > 0:19:53and the account came from Russia.
0:19:53 > 0:19:56The tweet was by no means a one off and MPs
0:19:56 > 0:19:59are investigating what they describe as a widespread problem.
0:19:59 > 0:20:01They've asked the likes of Twitter and Facebook to give details
0:20:01 > 0:20:06of Russian accounts they suspect could have been used
0:20:06 > 0:20:09to try to interfere in the EU referendum and general election.
0:20:09 > 0:20:12We have to recognise that there are people within Russia
0:20:12 > 0:20:18seeking to use the social media platforms to not just influence
0:20:18 > 0:20:20the way people think and vote, but also to divide communities,
0:20:20 > 0:20:23incite racial hatred, and this is really serious stuff.
0:20:23 > 0:20:25Is it your belief that the Russians have played any role in British
0:20:25 > 0:20:27elections and referendums?
0:20:27 > 0:20:29This was the Foreign Secretary's answer a few weeks ago.
0:20:29 > 0:20:30I haven't seen...
0:20:30 > 0:20:31Not a sausage.
0:20:31 > 0:20:32Nyet.
0:20:32 > 0:20:34Nyet.
0:20:34 > 0:20:38Some critics say the Government needs to take a firmer stand.
0:20:38 > 0:20:41What worries me slightly is that the Government,
0:20:41 > 0:20:44because it may be reluctant to do anything that might cast any doubt
0:20:44 > 0:20:48on the legitimacy of the referendum result or it might feel nervous
0:20:48 > 0:20:54about upsetting or embarrassing President Trump, when it hopes
0:20:54 > 0:20:56to get this fantasy trade deal to rescue it from a disastrous
0:20:56 > 0:20:59Brexit, may be pulling its punches in terms of getting
0:20:59 > 0:21:04to the truth on this.
0:21:04 > 0:21:07Of course, there are plenty who say the idea it was the Russians
0:21:07 > 0:21:10what won it when it comes to the EU referendum is ludicrous.
0:21:10 > 0:21:13Have I seen any evidence that Russia in any way played a significant role
0:21:13 > 0:21:15in the UK referendum?
0:21:15 > 0:21:20The answer is a big no.
0:21:20 > 0:21:24There is a crackpot conspiracy theory that Brexit and Trump
0:21:24 > 0:21:26could only have happened because of some extraordinary
0:21:26 > 0:21:28outside external event.
0:21:28 > 0:21:30It couldn't possibly have been ordinary people
0:21:30 > 0:21:32making their minds up, rejecting the European Union
0:21:32 > 0:21:35and rejecting the Democrats, and they're all looking desperately
0:21:35 > 0:21:39for some excuse to explain what happened.
0:21:39 > 0:21:43Earlier in the week, the Russian Embassy reacted
0:21:43 > 0:21:46with characteristic wryness on the internet, with a response
0:21:46 > 0:21:48that said, "It would be most unfortunate to see British policy
0:21:48 > 0:21:50towards Russia informed by wrong intelligence,
0:21:50 > 0:21:55as it was the case in the Iraq war."
0:21:55 > 0:21:57It goes on, "Accusations have the fundamental flaw of being
0:21:57 > 0:22:01non-transparent and biased."
0:22:01 > 0:22:03But there's little doubt the suspicion is there and experts
0:22:03 > 0:22:08have singled out Russia.
0:22:08 > 0:22:10There are some very active countries involved in cyber attacks,
0:22:10 > 0:22:12including China, including North Korea, including
0:22:12 > 0:22:15Iran, for instance.
0:22:15 > 0:22:18I think what distinguishes Russia, maybe, from those other three,
0:22:18 > 0:22:24is that Russia is deliberately trying to undermine our democratic
0:22:24 > 0:22:27system and our institutions, whereas the others are perhaps not,
0:22:27 > 0:22:29they're trying to steal secrets maybe, industrial secrets
0:22:29 > 0:22:32or government secrets.
0:22:32 > 0:22:35Our security services, then, have Russia in their sights.
0:22:35 > 0:22:38If you thought the Cold War was over, well, it looks
0:22:38 > 0:22:41like it just went cyber.
0:22:41 > 0:22:51Jamie Bartlett is the is director of the Centre for the Analysis
0:22:51 > 0:22:59of Social Media.
0:22:59 > 0:23:04Is this a crackpot theory or is it pretty serious?I think its crackpot
0:23:04 > 0:23:11to say it was Russian patrols and box that swung either the American
0:23:11 > 0:23:14election or the Brexit referendum and there are critics of those
0:23:14 > 0:23:18decisions who find it easier to blame this on outside influence but
0:23:18 > 0:23:23that is slightly different from what is increasingly clear that people
0:23:23 > 0:23:28involved with the Kremlin, or the Kremlin itself, or the Internet
0:23:28 > 0:23:35research agency, a Kremlin backed body did indeed have both automated
0:23:35 > 0:23:42bots and paid operatives who were posting content about Brexit likely
0:23:42 > 0:23:50in the interest of people voting for Brexit or more generally to so
0:23:50 > 0:23:56discard, disharmony and confusion. Is this marginal tweets from Russian
0:23:56 > 0:24:02bloggers sponsored by the Kremlin or are we talking about something much
0:24:02 > 0:24:07more significant, coordinated, designed to promote Russian policy
0:24:07 > 0:24:11objectives.Somewhere between the two. In the case of the research
0:24:11 > 0:24:17released in the last week or two by Swansea University, something like
0:24:17 > 0:24:22150,000 accounts that they believe were Russian controlled bots or
0:24:22 > 0:24:25operatives. Other research has placed it a little bit lower than
0:24:25 > 0:24:30that. It's a decent number. Those researchers found that it was
0:24:30 > 0:24:35something like 20% of all tweets that were on the hashtag Brexit were
0:24:35 > 0:24:40on these accounts. So it was a significant volume. Most people tend
0:24:40 > 0:24:44to believe that this was a warm up act for the American election where
0:24:44 > 0:24:50there was a lot more of a concerted effort to use these techniques to
0:24:50 > 0:24:53try to influence that election. You got to remember that this is very
0:24:53 > 0:24:59cheap and easy to do. It's not hard or complicated. You can have a room
0:24:59 > 0:25:05full of a few dozen people who are able to, using bots, put out
0:25:05 > 0:25:09incredible volumes of stories and content.Is there anything anyone
0:25:09 > 0:25:16can do about it?Generally speaking, we have created an international
0:25:16 > 0:25:21communications network that is without Borders. It is not going to
0:25:21 > 0:25:24go away and can be very easily manipulated by people from all
0:25:24 > 0:25:31around the world.What about the social media companies? Can they say
0:25:31 > 0:25:36this is suspicious, this is run from St Petersburg...There are something
0:25:36 > 0:25:41social media companies can do to identify certain IP addresses, for
0:25:41 > 0:25:44example, that are associated with particular agencies and share it
0:25:44 > 0:25:49with the government but in the end you can use all sorts of clever
0:25:49 > 0:25:56spoof addresses and...Do we do it? I don't know if our government does
0:25:56 > 0:26:01anything of this sort but it is pretty easy to do. Ordinary Russian
0:26:01 > 0:26:04citizens without backing of the Kremlin can get involved in talking
0:26:04 > 0:26:11about our politics as well and there is nothing to stop that.Rachel,
0:26:11 > 0:26:17conspiracy war or serious trouble?I think it's fascinating to think that
0:26:17 > 0:26:24the Kremlin has common goals with Brexit. To think this is a
0:26:24 > 0:26:29revolutionary act. The Kremlin wants to destabilise western institutions,
0:26:29 > 0:26:33it would like nothing better than to see the collapse of the EU. While I
0:26:33 > 0:26:39think it is a mistake to say somehow Rasha stole the Brexit result, there
0:26:39 > 0:26:45is an unsettling common cause in that. Michael Gove talks about being
0:26:45 > 0:26:48in favour of creative destruction but the Russians just want the
0:26:48 > 0:26:53destructive side of that. There is the destructive side of Brexit which
0:26:53 > 0:26:59is incredibly appealing to that. These academics at Swansea found
0:26:59 > 0:27:04some pro-remain tweets that they attributed to Russia and bots as
0:27:04 > 0:27:09well. I think it is an attempt by remain as to delegitimise those who
0:27:09 > 0:27:15voted to leave. If they were these credulous idiots whose vote could be
0:27:15 > 0:27:18purchased by a Russian bot, why couldn't they have been purchased by
0:27:18 > 0:27:24the extraordinary resources of the remain campaign who had the backing
0:27:24 > 0:27:30of all the institutions? If they were as uninformed as easily
0:27:30 > 0:27:36manipulated as these theorists had it, why didn't they vote for remain?
0:27:36 > 0:27:42Is their analysis to suggest regardless of how many social media
0:27:42 > 0:27:47postings there are, it has any impact?This has been a big question
0:27:47 > 0:27:55for a long time, the extent to which the stuff people read online has
0:27:55 > 0:28:01influenced the way they vote. We don't know exactly. There is no
0:28:01 > 0:28:04evidence to suggest it has decisively swung even one person's
0:28:04 > 0:28:10vote. But this is not necessarily the purpose. It is to soak
0:28:10 > 0:28:15disharmony, confusion and frustration. Yes, they weren't
0:28:15 > 0:28:20posting remain stuff as well. Not as much. But it is often very divisive
0:28:20 > 0:28:23content. We have an increasingly divisive politics wherever one is
0:28:23 > 0:28:30furious at each other and in that this can make a difference.Have the
0:28:30 > 0:28:37Russians realise the potential of using Twitter and Facebook to spread
0:28:37 > 0:28:45propaganda on the dirt cheap? Absolutely not. China employs
0:28:45 > 0:28:52thousands of people to post pro-China stuff. The Mexican
0:28:52 > 0:28:57government is doing it. Governments have realised that social media is
0:28:57 > 0:29:02an important fulcrum and can be manipulated one way or the other.
0:29:02 > 0:29:06It's obvious that it isn't incredibly difficult to do. The
0:29:06 > 0:29:11Russians have a head start but everyone is catching up quickly.Do
0:29:11 > 0:29:17you think Vladimir Putin uses twitter?I don't think so.We will
0:29:17 > 0:29:19leave it there.
0:29:19 > 0:29:26Now, the Environment Secretary, Michael Gove, has apparently been
0:29:26 > 0:29:33using lots of "long, economic words" and
0:29:33 > 0:29:35mentioning obscure financial terms during Cabinet.
0:29:35 > 0:29:38Might he be trying to show how well suited he is to replacing
0:29:38 > 0:29:39Philip Hammond as Chancellor?
0:29:39 > 0:29:46Perish the thought.
0:29:46 > 0:29:49Politicians have always used words to show. Listen to Lord Heseltine
0:29:49 > 0:30:02using economic jargon and having a dig at Ed Balls in the process.
0:30:02 > 0:30:05Here the game. Our new economic approach is rooted in ideas stress
0:30:05 > 0:30:14the importance of macroeconomics, neoclassical endogenous growth
0:30:14 > 0:30:17theory and the same biotic relationships between growth and
0:30:17 > 0:30:25investment in people and infrastructure. Clear,
0:30:25 > 0:30:32unambiguous... There you have it. The final proof, Labour's brand-new
0:30:32 > 0:30:42shining modernist economic dream but it wasn't Brown's, it was balls.
0:30:42 > 0:30:45Well, we are a public service broadcaster so we thought we would
0:30:45 > 0:30:50do a better jargon busting for any Cabinet ministers are feeling a bit
0:30:50 > 0:30:54out of the loop. To help us, we're joined by the financial writer
0:30:54 > 0:30:58Louise Cooper. Let's start with politicians and jargon - are they
0:30:58 > 0:31:01particularly prone to use economic jargon because they are actually
0:31:01 > 0:31:04skating on very thin ice and really most of them are bluffing and don't
0:31:04 > 0:31:09know the economic details?SIMM biosis is actually a biological term
0:31:09 > 0:31:16but we don't generally use it. From my experience, I am always quite
0:31:16 > 0:31:22aghast at how little politicians do understand about many aspects,
0:31:22 > 0:31:28particularly finance. Economics, some of them over a background but
0:31:28 > 0:31:30particularly financial markets, there is an extraordinary lack of
0:31:30 > 0:31:35knowledge.Why use those terms? The danger is you are showing up to be
0:31:35 > 0:31:43frankly a blufferTo be fair, the financial industry uses an awful lot
0:31:43 > 0:31:49of Cobbler gated jargon to charge very high prices so everybody is
0:31:49 > 0:31:53guilty of using jargon. -- complicated jargon. Can I point out
0:31:53 > 0:31:57that in your opening line you taught about high yield gilts, high yield
0:31:57 > 0:32:08gilts is an oxymoron. Sorry about that but you are guilty.We are
0:32:08 > 0:32:13going to see how you do with some other phrases which people might
0:32:13 > 0:32:18have difficulty with, so have a look at this one. I am going to ask our
0:32:18 > 0:32:23guests. This is the Gove utterance at Cabinet as he was trying to
0:32:23 > 0:32:27showboat on his potential as a Chancellor. Toby, you might get this
0:32:27 > 0:32:32but let's have a go, markets and financial instruments directive. Any
0:32:32 > 0:32:38thoughts on where we are going with this?Is it to do with things like
0:32:38 > 0:32:53taking options?It is actually MFR IDE one, MS D2 came out in 2007. It
0:32:53 > 0:32:56comes in on January three, the entire financial world is obsessed
0:32:56 > 0:32:59with it because it is enormous regulation as a result of the
0:32:59 > 0:33:05financial crisis. The idea is increased transparency and greater
0:33:05 > 0:33:09protection for investors. The extraordinary thing about MFID two
0:33:09 > 0:33:12is that it is so all-encompassing that it gets right down into the
0:33:12 > 0:33:19detail as to how things are traded. We have overdosed on MFID! Let's try
0:33:19 > 0:33:24this one... Rachel, I think you might... What about this? We have
0:33:24 > 0:33:29already had a nudge at gilts and yields.We were told we were wrong.
0:33:29 > 0:33:35I was told that was some sort of borrowing. Is that the right
0:33:35 > 0:33:41ballpark? Gilts are gilt-edged securities, government debt,
0:33:41 > 0:33:44government debt is. They issue it by the debt management office and the
0:33:44 > 0:33:47yield is the interest rate, the borrowing cost, and currently, shall
0:33:47 > 0:33:52I just throw it out there? What is the 10-year borrowing cost? What
0:33:52 > 0:33:54does it cost the Government to borrow for ten years at the moment?
0:33:54 > 0:34:04Anyone want to guess?No idea. This one, we will hear plenty of it from
0:34:04 > 0:34:08the Chancellor, Toby, I expect you to back this out of the park, it is
0:34:08 > 0:34:15too easy. Productivity.That is the amount of product produced by a unit
0:34:15 > 0:34:19of labour.Surely that is right? Spot on for productivity, dubbed the
0:34:19 > 0:34:24economic problem of our age by research analysts today but frankly
0:34:24 > 0:34:28I think we have an awful lot of economic problems of our age.I have
0:34:28 > 0:34:35my own guide to jargon busting, just confidently, brook no questions and
0:34:35 > 0:34:42plough on regardless. Thank you very much.
0:34:42 > 0:34:45For the next half an hour we're going to be focusing on Europe.
0:34:45 > 0:34:47We'll be discussing EU plans to beef up defence cooperation,
0:34:47 > 0:34:50Polish anger at the threat of EU sanctions and whether Brussels can
0:34:50 > 0:34:51do anything about tax havens.
0:34:51 > 0:34:54First, though, here's our guide to the latest from Europe
0:34:54 > 0:34:55in just 60 seconds.
0:34:57 > 0:35:00As the great philosopher David Hasselhoff once sang, "I've been
0:35:00 > 0:35:03looking for freedom, still it can't be found."
0:35:03 > 0:35:05And there was similar frustration for the German
0:35:05 > 0:35:07Chancellor as talks to form a workable government coalition
0:35:07 > 0:35:12rumbled on.
0:35:12 > 0:35:16She missed a self-imposed deadline today.
0:35:16 > 0:35:17The European Parliament
0:35:17 > 0:35:18named its press room in Strasbourg
0:35:18 > 0:35:20after Daphne Caruana Galizia, the Maltese journalist killed last
0:35:20 > 0:35:27month after reporting allegations of corruption.
0:35:27 > 0:35:30Have reports of a Brexit exodus been exaggerated? The latest figures from
0:35:30 > 0:35:34the offers of national statistics show the number of EU nationals
0:35:34 > 0:35:38working in the UK continues to rise.
0:35:38 > 0:35:40They say a cold shower is character building.
0:35:40 > 0:35:42It's not something MEPs are keen to try.
0:35:42 > 0:35:45There was uproar this week after it was announced the hot water
0:35:45 > 0:35:47in their offices would be permanently switched off because of
0:35:47 > 0:35:48health concerns.
0:35:48 > 0:35:50Where did you get that hat, Mr Juncker?
0:35:50 > 0:35:52The answer, a number of academic institutions
0:35:52 > 0:36:02where the EU president has received honorary degrees in recent months.
0:36:08 > 0:36:11Let's pick up on that element about the ONS figures.
0:36:11 > 0:36:13Is talk of a Brexodus - ie EU nationals fleeing
0:36:13 > 0:36:15the UK after Brexit - a myth?
0:36:15 > 0:36:18Well, figures releasd by the ONS suggest that the number of EU
0:36:18 > 0:36:20nationals working in the UK has actually reached a record high
0:36:20 > 0:36:25of 2.37 million migrants.
0:36:25 > 0:36:31What do you make of this, Rachel? I am confused. I thought other figures
0:36:31 > 0:36:34from the ONS showed a dramatic slowdown in the number of EU
0:36:34 > 0:36:39nationals coming here post Brexit. The problem is, we need a lot of EU
0:36:39 > 0:36:43nationals working in the economy, particularly in low skilled jobs,
0:36:43 > 0:36:46and I think there is a real danger of expectations not being met.
0:36:46 > 0:36:51People voted for Brexit because they were cross of bout low skilled
0:36:51 > 0:36:56immigration but I think a lot of it is going to continue after Brexit
0:36:56 > 0:36:59and the government will need a lot of it to continue because business
0:36:59 > 0:37:02and farmers will demand and inevitably, the economy will mean it
0:37:02 > 0:37:07carries on.Does that mean, Toby, that despite these figures there are
0:37:07 > 0:37:13real problems around the corner in terms of EU migrants coming home?
0:37:13 > 0:37:17That is often the move made by Remainers who predicted that merely
0:37:17 > 0:37:23by voting to leave we would trigger this mass Brexodus and, as it turns
0:37:23 > 0:37:26out, it hasn't happened. As you say, there was a record number of EU
0:37:26 > 0:37:29nationals currently working in the UK, over 100,000 more than there
0:37:29 > 0:37:35were this time last year, including more in the NHS, so they moved to
0:37:35 > 0:37:38say, yes, it hasn't happened yet because we have left yet but it
0:37:38 > 0:37:43might happen when we leave.One thing we do learn is that the people
0:37:43 > 0:37:47coming now, the biggest increase is in Bulgarians and Romanians, which
0:37:47 > 0:37:55rather suggests as low skilled and may be doctors and professionals are
0:37:55 > 0:38:03thinking, I don't think so.There are more working as doctors here
0:38:03 > 0:38:06than there were in June 2016. The way in which remain usually present
0:38:06 > 0:38:11their case is the numbers leaving without the numbers of people
0:38:11 > 0:38:17arriving being taken into account it took Boris calculating the 350
0:38:17 > 0:38:20million a week figure, that wasn't a net figure but was just about
0:38:20 > 0:38:25outflows are not in close. If you include outflows, net there are more
0:38:25 > 0:38:28EU nationals working here than ever before.Rachel, a Ramona sleight of
0:38:28 > 0:38:35hand?The issue is that the people who voted for Brexit are going to be
0:38:35 > 0:38:39furious because they feel they voted to bring down immigration and will
0:38:39 > 0:38:48feel betrayed by the Brexiteers who promised that.But isn't there
0:38:48 > 0:38:52upward pressure on wages?Didn't they vote on what they perceived to
0:38:52 > 0:39:03be too many people coming, even though they are needed?
0:39:03 > 0:39:05This week was described as "historic" by one EU
0:39:05 > 0:39:08foreign policy chief as the EU moved closer to deeper defence integration
0:39:08 > 0:39:09between member states.
0:39:09 > 0:39:12The Permanent Structured Co-operation Pact,
0:39:12 > 0:39:17or Pesco for short, should come into force next month.
0:39:17 > 0:39:1923 countries have declared they'll take part so far -
0:39:19 > 0:39:24with Portugal and the Irish Republic eventually expected to also sign on.
0:39:24 > 0:39:27Only Denmark, Malta, and - of course - the UK will
0:39:27 > 0:39:31remain unaffiliated.
0:39:31 > 0:39:34The pact was originally proposed by France and Germany,
0:39:34 > 0:39:39keen to bolster the EU after the Brexit vote.
0:39:39 > 0:39:41The agreement requires countries to increase defence
0:39:41 > 0:39:46budgets in real terms,
0:39:46 > 0:39:48and also tasks them with providing "substantial support" -
0:39:48 > 0:39:53including personnel - for EU military missions.
0:39:53 > 0:39:56Nevertheless it falls short of the full EU army Commission
0:39:56 > 0:39:59President Jean-Claude Juncker envisioned in his State of the Union
0:39:59 > 0:40:04address this year.
0:40:04 > 0:40:06Estonian Defense Minister Juri Luik said even with Pesco in force,
0:40:06 > 0:40:11"collective defence will always remain in Nato."
0:40:11 > 0:40:12Despite traditional British scepticism about further
0:40:12 > 0:40:17integration, Boris Johnson has welcomed the move
0:40:17 > 0:40:21and said the UK was supportive, and would be "like a flying buttress
0:40:21 > 0:40:24to support the cathedral".
0:40:24 > 0:40:26Well, to discuss this here in the studio
0:40:26 > 0:40:29we have the new Ukip leader, Henry Bolton, and in Cambridge
0:40:29 > 0:40:37is the Labour MEP, Alex Mayer.
0:40:37 > 0:40:42Alex, if I can start with you first, Labour government as well as
0:40:42 > 0:40:45Conservative governments have always been very iffy about Europe getting
0:40:45 > 0:40:49its act together on defence and basically, we've been accused of
0:40:49 > 0:40:58blocking it. Is Labour now in favour of closer EU defence cooperation?
0:40:58 > 0:41:01Yes, we are and I think that what has happened over the last few
0:41:01 > 0:41:09months and years is that the whole geopolitical situation has changed.
0:41:09 > 0:41:13When I took particularly to my Eastern European colleagues in the
0:41:13 > 0:41:15European Parliament, they are particularly worried about Russian
0:41:15 > 0:41:19aggression and want to make sure that European defence is
0:41:19 > 0:41:22strengthened and I believe that working together will enable us to
0:41:22 > 0:41:27do that.Surely that is a good thing, Henry Bolton, if the EU
0:41:27 > 0:41:31begins to look after itself rather than having to rely on others, above
0:41:31 > 0:41:35all the Americans?There are two aspects that maybe I can start by
0:41:35 > 0:41:43saying that although we didn't sign up to Pesco on Monday, it is quite
0:41:43 > 0:41:45clear that we are going to be participating in principle in other
0:41:45 > 0:41:53areas of this, such as the European defence fund and various other
0:41:53 > 0:41:57mechanisms that government secures. Those in turn are going to be
0:41:57 > 0:42:00governed by Brussels-based political and regulatory decision-making that
0:42:00 > 0:42:05we won't be fully participating in post Brexit, so we will be
0:42:05 > 0:42:09subordinating elements of our military-industrial and scientific
0:42:09 > 0:42:15and research, as well as our military, to EU policy.Given the
0:42:15 > 0:42:19threat we now seem to be facing from Russia, you think of Crimea and the
0:42:19 > 0:42:23Ukraine, surely it makes sense for the UK to start putting more oomph
0:42:23 > 0:42:29behind its military capability? Cooperation and EU member states
0:42:29 > 0:42:32co-operating and ensuring their command and control can work
0:42:32 > 0:42:35together so they are compatible with each other, yes, but centralised
0:42:35 > 0:42:41political direction, policy and regulatory frameworks is not the way
0:42:41 > 0:42:49to go. Nato is the alliance that has kept the peace up until now.Ian
0:42:49 > 0:42:55Stannard burgers entirely OK with this development.Well, I am not and
0:42:55 > 0:42:59Ukip is not. We have seen a whole range of areas where it implies
0:42:59 > 0:43:11deeper political integration with the EU, when we have compromised on
0:43:11 > 0:43:14our ability to deploy capability unilaterally, the problem here is
0:43:14 > 0:43:20that Nato has managed to survive and work effectively as a military
0:43:20 > 0:43:24deterrent for decades without that regulatory framework.Alex, isn't
0:43:24 > 0:43:29the real danger of this that it is a paper tiger. At the end of the day
0:43:29 > 0:43:33there is a lot of talk about Europe getting its military act together
0:43:33 > 0:43:36but basically, it is a sort of bureaucratic getting your act
0:43:36 > 0:43:40together, rather than real tanks on the ground?I just think this is
0:43:40 > 0:43:46being blown out of all proportion. This is a Ukip storm in a teacup. It
0:43:46 > 0:43:50is good news if European countries wish to cooperate with each other on
0:43:50 > 0:43:56defence. Nobody is forcing anybody to be a part of it, as we heard
0:43:56 > 0:43:59early introduction to this reporter Doug Britain is not part of it,
0:43:59 > 0:44:03Malta is not part of it. You can choose whether you want to so what
0:44:03 > 0:44:07is wrong with EU countries choosing to work together on defence, just as
0:44:07 > 0:44:12we choose to work together in the UN or in Nato? And as you rightly said,
0:44:12 > 0:44:16the Secretary General of Nato has welcomed this move. We don't want to
0:44:16 > 0:44:19do anything to duplicate Nato but European countries choosing work
0:44:19 > 0:44:23together I think is a good thing and will help strengthen our defence.
0:44:23 > 0:44:29Where is your leader on this, Jeremy Corbyn? He is generally iffy about
0:44:29 > 0:44:33Nato.He is in favour of making sure people collaborate with each other
0:44:33 > 0:44:37and making sure we have successful mission is to try and keep a more
0:44:37 > 0:44:43peaceful and stable world.
0:44:43 > 0:44:48Donald Trump has always argued that Europe cannot keep relying on the
0:44:48 > 0:44:51Americans. Surely this is just a natural political development that
0:44:51 > 0:44:55at the end of the day Europe is going to have to turn its attention
0:44:55 > 0:45:00to defence.His concern is the amount people are spending on
0:45:00 > 0:45:05defence. The problem with the whole Pesco concept is that member states
0:45:05 > 0:45:09will not to any great extent, we cannot expect them to increase their
0:45:09 > 0:45:16military expenditure. The deal for Nato is 2% and they don't maintain
0:45:16 > 0:45:22that. They are not going to increase national capabilities to support
0:45:22 > 0:45:28Pesco. They are going to pool assets and save costs. This is one of the
0:45:28 > 0:45:33things driving it. What concerns me is at the moment member states who
0:45:33 > 0:45:37are members of Nato pledge military assets and capability to Nato. They
0:45:37 > 0:45:41are going to be pledging those to the European Union and you can't do
0:45:41 > 0:45:48both.Toby, how do you read this? A serious move for Europe to get its
0:45:48 > 0:45:53act together on defence or just talk?It seems like some of the
0:45:53 > 0:45:58ground clearance they need to do in order to create an EU wide army.Is
0:45:58 > 0:46:04that a good thing?It was one of the things that the leave aside flagged
0:46:04 > 0:46:09up as a risk and it was always dismissed by remain as as in the
0:46:09 > 0:46:19same category fake news Turkey joining. The differences, if we
0:46:19 > 0:46:23remain in the EU and an EU army gets created, it's not clear that we
0:46:23 > 0:46:27would have a choice if our troops were called up to fight in an EU
0:46:27 > 0:46:34war. In Nato, we have a right of veto. Every Nato country has to
0:46:34 > 0:46:41endorse military action before deploying troops.One aspect of
0:46:41 > 0:46:46Brexit, with France we are the big player in European defence. Now we
0:46:46 > 0:46:52are out, is that what has driven the Europeans to get their act together?
0:46:52 > 0:46:56Yes, exactly. Britain has been a block on further integration. If it
0:46:56 > 0:47:03leaves, the rest of the EU is going to more and more gather together. I
0:47:03 > 0:47:06don't see we can complain about that. If we choose to leave, that's
0:47:06 > 0:47:16their right to do so.Brexit has led to this?Brexit has taken away and
0:47:16 > 0:47:23-- an obstacle to achieving it. Full European Union, military union is
0:47:23 > 0:47:29the direction of travel. It's absolutely where we are going.Is
0:47:29 > 0:47:36that where you would like Europe to go?I don't think there is likely to
0:47:36 > 0:47:40be a European army. I don't think that is the end goal and I don't
0:47:40 > 0:47:44think anyone is going to be forced into it. This is a union of
0:47:44 > 0:47:49countries of Europe who want to get together and share ideas and
0:47:49 > 0:47:52resources on defence and that's what happening. No troops are going to be
0:47:52 > 0:47:57called up from different countries without their say-so. This is just
0:47:57 > 0:48:00people collaborating together to get the best from the resources that
0:48:00 > 0:48:07they have.Henry, a voluntary arrangement that people can take or
0:48:07 > 0:48:13leave?That is what Nato is and this is not. This will be regulated, as
0:48:13 > 0:48:17the government made clear in their paper of September, regulated by the
0:48:17 > 0:48:23European Union and we won't be part of that. I would agree with Boris
0:48:23 > 0:48:28Johnson's analogy about a flying buttress to an extent, but a
0:48:28 > 0:48:33buttress supports from the outside. If we maintain our full military
0:48:33 > 0:48:37capabilities we will always want to support our allies abroad. Including
0:48:37 > 0:48:43in the EU. Ukip doesn't believe that we need to be subordinate to EU
0:48:43 > 0:48:47decision-making either within the community or politically. We are far
0:48:47 > 0:48:51better able to do that if we are outside the building but supporting
0:48:51 > 0:48:56it.Thanks very much.
0:48:56 > 0:48:59Now, could we soon see the EU impose sanctions
0:48:59 > 0:49:02on one of its own member states?
0:49:02 > 0:49:07MEPs voted this week to start official proceedings against Poland
0:49:07 > 0:49:09over concerns that the nationalist government in Warsaw
0:49:09 > 0:49:15is clamping down on the independence of the judiciary.
0:49:15 > 0:49:18In a resolution adopted by 438 votes to 152,
0:49:18 > 0:49:20the European Parliament voted to launch the so-called
0:49:20 > 0:49:24Article 7 process which could lead to the suspension of Poland's voting
0:49:24 > 0:49:28rights in the council of the EU.
0:49:28 > 0:49:33In a debate in Strasbourg, MEPs said the country had conducted
0:49:33 > 0:49:37"serious violations" of the rule of law - but the vote didn't go down
0:49:37 > 0:49:42very well with one Polish MEP.
0:49:42 > 0:49:44Why you are leaving?
0:49:44 > 0:49:47No, because I have to say something to you.
0:49:47 > 0:49:52I have to say something to you.
0:49:52 > 0:49:55Your attack on Mr Lewandowski, I find it outrageous.
0:49:55 > 0:49:57If there is one sensible...
0:49:57 > 0:50:00APPLAUSE
0:50:00 > 0:50:05If there is one sensible, reasonable colleague of us,
0:50:05 > 0:50:10sometimes even a little bit boring, then it is Mr Lewandowski and to say
0:50:10 > 0:50:13that he is losing his senses, well, I think it's the Polish government
0:50:13 > 0:50:19that has lost its senses and not Mr Lewandowski.
0:50:19 > 0:50:27It's interesting. There is a tension it seems between the old Western
0:50:27 > 0:50:30European countries and the new Eastern European countries and this
0:50:30 > 0:50:37symbolises it, doesn't it?Exactly. The EU has to uphold the rule of
0:50:37 > 0:50:45law, Red Bull democracy...Sanctions is a big step. -- liberal democracy.
0:50:45 > 0:50:53This is a big step. I think ultimately the house to uphold those
0:50:53 > 0:51:00values that it stands for.Toby, the counterargument is that the polls
0:51:00 > 0:51:03say they are a democratically elected government and what they
0:51:03 > 0:51:06choose to do with their country is none of their business. Leave them
0:51:06 > 0:51:12alone.For someone on my side of the Brexit debate who believes in the
0:51:12 > 0:51:18rule of law and in universal human rights but also believes in national
0:51:18 > 0:51:22self-determination, this is a tricky one. PE would have more credibility
0:51:22 > 0:51:27as appalled as of the rule of law and universal human rights if they
0:51:27 > 0:51:31hadn't supported the Spanish government in their brutal crackdown
0:51:31 > 0:51:38for the independence movement in Catalonia.Is it possible that down
0:51:38 > 0:51:42the line we could see Eastern European countries looking to
0:51:42 > 0:51:47Britain and thinking, I think we want out of this club?Or becoming a
0:51:47 > 0:51:52block within the block perhaps? There is definitely a different
0:51:52 > 0:51:59culture. That Franco German axis of closer integration, EU, the faith,
0:51:59 > 0:52:06the true faith. Definitely driven from that side of it. You could
0:52:06 > 0:52:12easily see a different culture and the block within a blog developing.
0:52:12 > 0:52:15It seems interesting that much of the argument around Brexit is that
0:52:15 > 0:52:20we are going to teach the Brits a lesson so no one upstairs do it. But
0:52:20 > 0:52:28there hasn't really been any sign of anyone else looking to exit.I
0:52:28 > 0:52:32always thought that was a slight red Herring on the part of the EU. One
0:52:32 > 0:52:40of the reasons I'm optimistic that there will be movement in December
0:52:40 > 0:52:44is because if we are actually forced by the EU through intransigence to
0:52:44 > 0:52:49crash out without a deal and end of trading with the rest of Europe via
0:52:49 > 0:52:53WTO rules and we make a success of that, then there might be a stampede
0:52:53 > 0:52:56for the exit.
0:52:56 > 0:52:59Earlier this week European Parliament called an urgent debate
0:52:59 > 0:53:02on the so-called Paradise Papers - a leak of 13 million documents,
0:53:02 > 0:53:05reportedly tying major companies and political figures to secretive
0:53:05 > 0:53:08overseas financial arrangements.
0:53:08 > 0:53:18MEPs called for a step up in the fight against tax evasion -
0:53:22 > 0:53:24-- avoidance.
0:53:24 > 0:53:28Adam Fleming has the details.
0:53:28 > 0:53:29Papers, papers everywhere.
0:53:29 > 0:53:31But the documents MEPs cared about this week were ones that
0:53:31 > 0:53:33revealed how the rich pay less tax.
0:53:33 > 0:53:34The so-called Paradise Papers.
0:53:34 > 0:53:36TRANSLATION:When I consider that this cup of tea,
0:53:36 > 0:53:39when I bought it, I paid more tax than an international sporting
0:53:39 > 0:53:40company pays its entire turnover.
0:53:40 > 0:53:42Then it's really outrageous.
0:53:42 > 0:53:43It's not just an individual case.
0:53:43 > 0:53:46From the Queen to Facebook, from George Soros to Uber,
0:53:46 > 0:53:48from Shakira to eBay, all of them are mentioned
0:53:48 > 0:53:52in the Paradise Papers.
0:53:52 > 0:53:58More than 60 billion euros a year are being lost to the EU.
0:53:58 > 0:54:01The leader of the centre-left group called tax avoidance a "cancer"
0:54:01 > 0:54:03on the European economy.
0:54:03 > 0:54:06TRANSLATION:States are imposing austerity whilst, at the same time,
0:54:06 > 0:54:12multinationals are taking billions out of the economy and
0:54:12 > 0:54:16not paying tax, thereby depriving people of this income.
0:54:16 > 0:54:21And we have drawn attention to this repeatedly, as socialists.
0:54:21 > 0:54:26The Paradise Papers originated here, Bermuda,
0:54:26 > 0:54:30a British Overseas Territory, thrusting the UK into the spotlight.
0:54:30 > 0:54:32Another day, another leak of embarrassing documents
0:54:32 > 0:54:35about the role of the City of London as the global centre
0:54:35 > 0:54:38for tax avoidance.
0:54:38 > 0:54:41Successive British governments have postured about leading
0:54:41 > 0:54:44on transparency but it's easy to play the good guy when you have
0:54:44 > 0:54:46so many post-colonial territories to do the dirty work
0:54:46 > 0:54:49at your bidding.
0:54:49 > 0:54:52Avoiding civilised rules on tax was always part of the Brexit agenda
0:54:52 > 0:54:56but any attempt to turn Britain into the Bermuda of the North
0:54:56 > 0:55:00is likely to flounder since the EU will surely make cleaning up
0:55:00 > 0:55:05the overseas territories a condition for any future trade deal.
0:55:05 > 0:55:09But the rest of the EU got the blame, as well.
0:55:09 > 0:55:13Remember, it was an EU directive in the 1980s that let multinational
0:55:13 > 0:55:17companies pay tax in any European headquarters country,
0:55:17 > 0:55:21rather than where revenues and profits were really made.
0:55:21 > 0:55:24Remember, tougher action has been taking against the Lux Leaks
0:55:24 > 0:55:26whistle-blowers than against the accountants,
0:55:26 > 0:55:29corporate executives, or politicians involved.
0:55:29 > 0:55:32Remember that the commission's own president Mr Juncker
0:55:32 > 0:55:36was Prime Minister of Luxembourg when his country was conniving
0:55:36 > 0:55:39with big accountancy firms to erode the tax bases
0:55:39 > 0:55:43of larger EU economies.
0:55:43 > 0:55:46Jean-Claude Juncker and his commissioners decamped to Strasbourg
0:55:46 > 0:55:49as usual and have their weekly meeting in this very room.
0:55:49 > 0:55:51And they say they are gripping this issue.
0:55:51 > 0:55:54For example, they want every company to publish every activity
0:55:54 > 0:55:57it does in every country, so they can be taxed properly.
0:55:57 > 0:56:00And they want to publish a blacklist of global tax havens
0:56:00 > 0:56:05at the start of next month.
0:56:05 > 0:56:07But some MEPs say the hold-up comes from the member states.
0:56:07 > 0:56:08Which countries are blocking it?
0:56:08 > 0:56:11Oh, so many.
0:56:11 > 0:56:16Of course, you have the inner European tax paradises,
0:56:16 > 0:56:19like the Benelux countries, Ireland, Malta, Cyprus.
0:56:19 > 0:56:21But, then, surprisingly, you have a number of big
0:56:21 > 0:56:24countries and, of course, I forgot to mention
0:56:24 > 0:56:26the United Kingdom, all these Crown dependencies,
0:56:26 > 0:56:28but then you have big countries like Germany.
0:56:28 > 0:56:32Wolfgang Schauble, when he was finance minister
0:56:32 > 0:56:35not long ago, was the key opponent to public country-by-country
0:56:35 > 0:56:38reporting for multinationals because he wants to preserve
0:56:38 > 0:56:43the reputation of the big German multinationals.
0:56:43 > 0:56:46So, there is no holy finance ministers there.
0:56:46 > 0:56:48And this week, the Parliament, Council and commission
0:56:48 > 0:56:50failed to agree a new law on money-laundering
0:56:50 > 0:56:55after eight attempts.
0:56:55 > 0:56:59Looks like the murky world of tax avoidance
0:56:59 > 0:57:05will stay murky for a while.
0:57:05 > 0:57:11I have a slight sense of deja vu. David Cameron was going to crack
0:57:11 > 0:57:17down on tax avoidance. Without being cynical, do you think anything is
0:57:17 > 0:57:22going to change?EU should be the vehicle for dealing with this. It
0:57:22 > 0:57:29has to be done internationally. One country on its own cannot sort out a
0:57:29 > 0:57:32global tax problem but it seems to be caught up in the weeds yet again
0:57:32 > 0:57:39of individual self-interest. Politically, it's like manner from
0:57:39 > 0:57:42heaven for Jeremy Corbyn. This plays to his narrative about the rich
0:57:42 > 0:57:50doing terribly well and the poor people on posterity.They could do
0:57:50 > 0:57:54something on Crown dependencies and publication, transparency, that sort
0:57:54 > 0:57:57of thing. It would be a brilliant way of demonstrating they are not
0:57:57 > 0:58:05the party of the rich.As part of the Brexit negotiations, the might
0:58:05 > 0:58:11say Crown dependencies, you've got to get a grip on them.It's going to
0:58:11 > 0:58:16it be easier to make that case if they are flexible about a trade
0:58:16 > 0:58:24deal. MEPs would be more credible on this if they weren't subject to a
0:58:24 > 0:58:27low tax rate, lower than any of the member states tax rates in cell.
0:58:27 > 0:58:35Being an MEP is a form of tax avoidance. Let's not forget that the
0:58:35 > 0:58:40top 1% of earners are paying 27% of the total income tax take, higher
0:58:40 > 0:58:43than it's ever been before and higher than under any Labour
0:58:43 > 0:58:48government.
0:58:48 > 0:58:55That's all for now, thanks to all my guests and goodbye.