0:00:37 > 0:00:41Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics.
0:00:42 > 0:00:45Immigration falls by 80,000 in the year following the referendum,
0:00:45 > 0:00:48with a sharp fall in the number coming from the EU.
0:00:48 > 0:00:50Are we already seeing the Brexit effect?
0:00:50 > 0:00:56Donald Trump takes aim at Theresa May after the Prime Minister
0:00:56 > 0:00:59criticised the President for re-tweeting anti-Muslim
0:00:59 > 0:01:02videos from a British far-right political party.
0:01:02 > 0:01:05The Queen is due to roll out the carpet for the President next year -
0:01:05 > 0:01:06should he be dis-invited?
0:01:06 > 0:01:11Theresa May called on the Saudis to ease their blockade of Yemen,
0:01:11 > 0:01:16but should the UK be selling arms to the controversial Arab Kingdom?
0:01:16 > 0:01:19And we take our balls to find out whether you think a 40-odd billion
0:01:19 > 0:01:22Brexit divorce bill is bananas...
0:01:22 > 0:01:24Oh, I'd go bananas!
0:01:24 > 0:01:25Not paying all that out.
0:01:25 > 0:01:27We need it in this country.
0:01:27 > 0:01:31We need it for our hospitals and that.
0:01:36 > 0:01:39All that in the next hour.
0:01:39 > 0:01:42With us for the whole of the programme today
0:01:42 > 0:01:45is the Political Editor of the Sunday Times and prolific
0:01:45 > 0:01:47chronicler of these unpredictable political times, Tim Shipman.
0:01:47 > 0:01:51Welcome to the programme.
0:01:51 > 0:01:55First today, there's been a sharp fall in net migration in the first
0:01:55 > 0:01:59set of figures that take in the full year following the EU referendum.
0:01:59 > 0:02:06Net migration has fallen by 106,000, from 336,000 to 230,000
0:02:06 > 0:02:09in the year ending June 2017 - the largest annual
0:02:09 > 0:02:12decrease recorded.
0:02:12 > 0:02:16The Government has a target of reducing net migration
0:02:16 > 0:02:19to less than 100,000 - so the current level is still more
0:02:19 > 0:02:24than twice that figure.
0:02:24 > 0:02:29Statistically it is significant, the drop. Over three quarters of the
0:02:29 > 0:02:33decrease in net migration can be accounted for by EU citizens, is it
0:02:33 > 0:02:39politically significant?I think so. I think a lot of Brexiteers felt
0:02:39 > 0:02:42voting to leave the EU would allow them to bring in new tougher rules
0:02:42 > 0:02:47which would allow us to control who comes here. What appears to be
0:02:47 > 0:02:50happening, a political effect where people decide not to come here
0:02:50 > 0:02:53instead. They think the government will be drilling down into and to
0:02:53 > 0:02:57check is what sort of people are trying to come here? The Visa regime
0:02:57 > 0:03:02they will tell us about next year will be trying to encourage people
0:03:02 > 0:03:06with high-tech qualifications to keep coming. They need to keep
0:03:06 > 0:03:09filling posts in the health service and need qualified people. There
0:03:09 > 0:03:15will be a concern if it's those sort of people deciding they'd no longer
0:03:15 > 0:03:19want to come here, because of what they feel is a perceived sense that
0:03:19 > 0:03:23they are not welcome any more.What about the figures for non-EU
0:03:23 > 0:03:27nationals coming to the country? With the prospective new trade
0:03:27 > 0:03:31deals, as we understand it from the government being made, if the
0:03:31 > 0:03:36presumption those numbers may go up? I think that is possible, and
0:03:36 > 0:03:39certainly if you're looking at countries like Australia, New
0:03:39 > 0:03:44Zealand, Canada, they will want to have a more liberal regime so that
0:03:44 > 0:03:49people who have been treated less well than members of the EU until
0:03:49 > 0:03:52now will have a presumption may have the same kind of rights to come
0:03:52 > 0:03:56here. It is certainly the case if you start getting a load of people
0:03:56 > 0:03:59in from the subcontinent, for example, to fill jobs that people
0:03:59 > 0:04:04from Poland on Hungary are no longer coming here to do, it's not clear
0:04:04 > 0:04:08that what the people of Sunderland were voting for.And the target is
0:04:08 > 0:04:11to 100,000 for net migration.
0:04:11 > 0:04:12Now it's time for our daily quiz.
0:04:12 > 0:04:15The question for today is, where have Mrs and Miss gone missing?
0:04:15 > 0:04:16Is it...
0:04:16 > 0:04:18In the classroom, at Wimbledon, in the law courts,
0:04:18 > 0:04:20or in the council chamber?
0:04:22 > 0:04:25At the end of the show Tim will hopefully give us
0:04:25 > 0:04:28the correct answer.
0:04:28 > 0:04:31Now, the extraordinary diplomatic storm has developed over tweets
0:04:31 > 0:04:35from US President Donald Trump.
0:04:35 > 0:04:39Yesterday, he retweeted three videos by Jayda Fransen -
0:04:39 > 0:04:42deputy leader of the far-right group Britain First - which campaigns
0:04:42 > 0:04:45against what it calls the "rapid growth of militant Islam".
0:04:45 > 0:04:50The videos purported to show Muslims attacking Christians
0:04:50 > 0:04:52or destroying Christian icons.
0:04:52 > 0:04:56But the veracity of all three has been questioned,
0:04:56 > 0:05:03with the Dutch Embassy in America saying one video allegedly showing
0:05:03 > 0:05:06an immigrant offender actually showed a man who was actually born
0:05:06 > 0:05:07in the Netherlands.
0:05:07 > 0:05:09Theresa May's spokesman said it was "wrong" for the President
0:05:09 > 0:05:12to have done this, as Britain First seeks to "divide communities"
0:05:12 > 0:05:18while peddling lies and stoking tensions.
0:05:18 > 0:05:20And the spokesman said British people "overwhelmingly reject"
0:05:20 > 0:05:23the prejudiced rhetoric of the far-right.
0:05:23 > 0:05:24Sajid Javid, the only Muslim cabinet minister,
0:05:24 > 0:05:27said the President "endorsed the views of a vile,
0:05:27 > 0:05:33hate-filled racist organisation that hates me and people like me".
0:05:33 > 0:05:35Well, Donald Trump's Press Secretary, Sarah Huckabee Sanders,
0:05:35 > 0:05:37was asked about the President retweeting videos whose
0:05:37 > 0:05:41circumstances he knew nothing about.
0:05:43 > 0:05:47Whether it's a real video, the threat is real,
0:05:47 > 0:05:50and that is what the President is talking about, that is
0:05:50 > 0:05:53what the President is focused on, dealing with those real threats,
0:05:53 > 0:05:56and those are real, no matter how you look at it.
0:05:56 > 0:05:58So it doesn't matter that the video is fake?
0:05:58 > 0:06:00Look, I'm not talking about the nature of the video.
0:06:00 > 0:06:02I think you're focusing on the wrong thing.
0:06:02 > 0:06:03The threat is real.
0:06:03 > 0:06:05Well, last night Donald Trump responded by tweeting
0:06:05 > 0:06:07at Theresa May:
0:06:15 > 0:06:17It's not the first time he's weighed into British politics,
0:06:17 > 0:06:20and after the London Bridge attack, he criticised Sadiq Khan on Twitter
0:06:20 > 0:06:22for allegedly telling people in London there was
0:06:22 > 0:06:25"no reason to be alarmed" - a remark the London Mayor says
0:06:25 > 0:06:28was taken out of context.
0:06:28 > 0:06:31And after the attempted terror attack on the tube at Parsons Green
0:06:31 > 0:06:33station, he tweeted - without any corroborating evidence -
0:06:33 > 0:06:36that the people responsible had been "in the sights of Scotland Yard".
0:06:38 > 0:06:40Well, the Home Secretary Amber Rudd has
0:06:40 > 0:06:42been speaking in the House of Commons on this
0:06:42 > 0:06:43matter this morning...
0:06:43 > 0:06:47We have been very clear.
0:06:47 > 0:06:51President Donald Trump was wrong to re-tweet videos
0:06:51 > 0:06:55posted by the far group, Britain First.
0:06:55 > 0:06:58We have said so clearly in this House, and the Prime Minister has
0:06:58 > 0:07:00said so clearly online.
0:07:00 > 0:07:03We will continue to speak freely and frankly when it takes place.
0:07:11 > 0:07:14Let's talk to Drew Liquerman, he's in Dundee and he's the chairman
0:07:14 > 0:07:15of Republicans Overseas in Scotland.
0:07:15 > 0:07:19Welcome to the programme. Should Donald Trump the retweeting fake
0:07:19 > 0:07:31news?Should he be retweeting fake news? I think he retweeted something
0:07:31 > 0:07:38from a well-known journalist. Something she tweeted with a
0:07:38 > 0:07:41verified check mark. I'm not defending him but I don't think he
0:07:41 > 0:07:47was willingly tweeting fake news... Should he be retweeting something
0:07:47 > 0:07:51that hasn't been verified, and in fact was contradicted by the Dutch
0:07:51 > 0:07:57embassy?No, I said publicly before I think he should undo the tweets of
0:07:57 > 0:08:03the three videos posted by the deputy leader of Britain First.Why
0:08:03 > 0:08:07is Donald Trump, in your mind, publicly rebuking one of his closest
0:08:07 > 0:08:14allies by two criticising Theresa May?I'm not sure... I don't think
0:08:14 > 0:08:20he should involve himself with inside, internal UK affairs. The
0:08:20 > 0:08:23same way I criticised Barack Obama for trying to intervene in the
0:08:23 > 0:08:29Brexit referendum. I think Trump 's best thing out of UK affairs.This
0:08:29 > 0:08:32was a very personal tweet to the Prime Minister of the United
0:08:32 > 0:08:39Kingdom. Was that wise?It wasn't wise I think Trump was trying to
0:08:39 > 0:08:42bring up serious concerns about radicals and he went about in the
0:08:42 > 0:08:46wrong way, which serves to hurt his cause. Those ways the US and UK
0:08:46 > 0:08:51could work together, and could come across better than the weight did.
0:08:51 > 0:08:58He went about it the wrong way. He had no idea what that account was
0:08:58 > 0:09:03that he retweeted. I think it was a failure on Twitter yesterday, is how
0:09:03 > 0:09:08I would put it.What point is he trying to make?I think Trump is
0:09:08 > 0:09:13trying to make the point that radicals are a serious threat. The
0:09:13 > 0:09:18point about the UK was the UK admitting Brits who went to fight
0:09:18 > 0:09:22for Islamic State in Syria back into the country. Trying to make the
0:09:22 > 0:09:29point of unfettered immigration, whether it is Islamic terror or MS
0:09:29 > 0:09:3413. I think he did not make the point well. If anything, he served
0:09:34 > 0:09:39to hurt the point.You think he's done more harm than good?Exactly. I
0:09:39 > 0:09:43think Trump wanted to bring up great points and went about it the wrong
0:09:43 > 0:09:47way. He retweeted paper, didn't know who they were or what
0:09:47 > 0:09:51organisation... Virtually nobody in America has heard of Britain First.
0:09:51 > 0:09:55I have been very involved in UK politics, I've lived in the UK and
0:09:55 > 0:10:01have never even heard of Jayda Fransen, the leader...You are not
0:10:01 > 0:10:04the President of the United States. You have said it has done more harm
0:10:04 > 0:10:10than good and it might, to some extent, have put pressure on if not
0:10:10 > 0:10:13risked the so-called special relationship between the United
0:10:13 > 0:10:20Kingdom and the United States. The Muslim cabinet minister here in the
0:10:20 > 0:10:24UK says the President of the United States has endorsed the views of a
0:10:24 > 0:10:29vile hate filled organisation, a group you and the president happened
0:10:29 > 0:10:34heard of, a group that hates me and people like me. Do you think Donald
0:10:34 > 0:10:38Trump is a racist?No, I don't think Donald Trump is a racist. It is a
0:10:38 > 0:10:42term everyone would like to throw around. He retweeted the video to
0:10:42 > 0:10:48try and bring up a serious concern. He retweeted... Here they follows 45
0:10:48 > 0:10:52people on Twitter. One of the journalists he followed retweeted is
0:10:52 > 0:10:58a man with a blue checkmark, he saw the blue checkmark, and retweeted
0:10:58 > 0:11:02thinking it's certified news, which it wasn't. I think it's a very big
0:11:02 > 0:11:05misunderstanding. I think another part of the misunderstanding is
0:11:05 > 0:11:11people in the US... Britain First is a very small fringe group. It is a
0:11:11 > 0:11:16group where a lot of people in the US don't realise the gravity or
0:11:16 > 0:11:19seriousness of the group.British politicians are calling for the
0:11:19 > 0:11:23invite to Donald Trump to come to Britain on a state visit or
0:11:23 > 0:11:30otherwise to be withdrawn. What do you say?No, I think that's a bit
0:11:30 > 0:11:35too far. Retweeting three tweets... I've called an Trump to undo the
0:11:35 > 0:11:40retweet. Look at some of the people the UK have invited to come to UK on
0:11:40 > 0:11:44state visits, Middle Eastern leaders, Chinese leaders who have
0:11:44 > 0:11:47been grotesque people you cannot compare to. That being said, if
0:11:47 > 0:11:54Jeremy Corbyn was Prime Minister of the UK, he has referred to people of
0:11:54 > 0:12:02Hamas and Hezbollah as friends. Killing innocent Jewish people, but
0:12:02 > 0:12:07I wouldn't say don't invite them to the US.
0:12:07 > 0:12:08We're joined now by former US assistant secretary
0:12:08 > 0:12:11of State, James Rubin.
0:12:11 > 0:12:14Welcome to the programme. Let's pick up on that state visit. Do you think
0:12:14 > 0:12:19the invite should be withdrawn?I think it's a pretty dramatic step to
0:12:19 > 0:12:24withdraw the invite. I think what clearly from the time this
0:12:24 > 0:12:29invitation was first put forward, I had the feeling that Theresa May was
0:12:29 > 0:12:32making perhaps too much of a personal relationship between the
0:12:32 > 0:12:35president and the Prime Minister and now she is paying the price for
0:12:35 > 0:12:39that. They thought that Donald Trump would be all impressed by going to
0:12:39 > 0:12:41see the Queen and staying at Buckingham Palace and that would
0:12:41 > 0:12:46make it more likely that he would do something on trade or something on a
0:12:46 > 0:12:50trade agreement. That's not going to happen. Donald Trump is going to
0:12:50 > 0:12:53make decisions based on what he thinks is right or wrong, not
0:12:53 > 0:12:57because he gets to sleep in Buckingham Palace. I think they have
0:12:57 > 0:13:02over personalised it. I think to cancel the visit would be again to
0:13:02 > 0:13:05over personalise the relationship. It doesn't mean the British should
0:13:05 > 0:13:10have to agree with this horrendous behaviour of our President.How
0:13:10 > 0:13:15horrendous is it, in your mind?I was not a fan of the President
0:13:15 > 0:13:19during the campaign. Pretty much everything that I worried about,
0:13:19 > 0:13:25feared about, the individual, not just the policies but the
0:13:25 > 0:13:29individual's behaviour, the bragging, the lying, all that, has
0:13:29 > 0:13:35come to fruition. On the specifics, it's a real problem. The problem is,
0:13:35 > 0:13:42terrorism is going to be resolved through a process within the Islamic
0:13:42 > 0:13:46community. There are a billion Muslims in the world. Moderate
0:13:46 > 0:13:49Muslim leaders have to be the one to do this. Donald Trump does this kind
0:13:49 > 0:13:55of thing, makes their job much harder.This is a diplomatic
0:13:55 > 0:14:01nightmare, isn't it?Very well put. For the Prime Minister. Because she,
0:14:01 > 0:14:05in some peoples minds rather hastily, offered this state visit to
0:14:05 > 0:14:09Donald Trump. Do you think she can really cancel it purpose -- ASBO
0:14:09 > 0:14:14that further?I don't think the British government wants to escalate
0:14:14 > 0:14:19the matter by cancelling the trip. It is supposed at the next year, we
0:14:19 > 0:14:23don't know when. The problem Downing Street has had if they
0:14:23 > 0:14:26understandably thought we needed to get alongside the new US president.
0:14:26 > 0:14:31She didn't have to offer the state visit?No, and not straight out of
0:14:31 > 0:14:35the box. The problem has been made try to treat Donald Trump like any
0:14:35 > 0:14:40other politician and he's not like any other politician. You hear
0:14:40 > 0:14:44accounts of Theresa May on the telephone with Donald Trump, and he
0:14:44 > 0:14:49bamboozles her all the time, sort of blusters his way through the call.
0:14:49 > 0:14:52Theresa May find it difficult to get to talking points across,
0:14:52 > 0:14:55apparently, and we are seeing it again. The guy can go on twitter and
0:14:55 > 0:14:59change the whole terms of the debate with one to beat.What do you think
0:14:59 > 0:15:03would be an appropriate response from the British government? Theresa
0:15:03 > 0:15:06May has tweeted. There has been criticism from Downing Street, is it
0:15:06 > 0:15:12enough?
0:15:12 > 0:15:16This issue of moderate Islam, the leaders of the moderate Islamic
0:15:16 > 0:15:24community. What I would do is to take the issue of empowering
0:15:24 > 0:15:28extremist and fascist right-wing groups, who are attacking Islam, and
0:15:28 > 0:15:30do some sort of report that shows the American president all of the
0:15:30 > 0:15:37steps we are doing here...The British government should do this?
0:15:37 > 0:15:43Right. And how the empowerment of Fascist, right-wing groups harms the
0:15:43 > 0:15:49cause.Do you think that would stop Donald Trump tweeting?I don't think
0:15:49 > 0:15:52there is anything the British government could do to mean that.
0:15:52 > 0:15:57His chief of staff can't get him to stop tweeting! One thing that they
0:15:57 > 0:16:02could do, and this is probably in the journalist world, and you never
0:16:02 > 0:16:06supposed to tell journalists what to do, so let me suggest something. I
0:16:06 > 0:16:11don't think he rebuked her. If you read the tweet, within the context
0:16:11 > 0:16:16of tweet language, it wasn't a slam on Theresa May. He said he disagrees
0:16:16 > 0:16:21with her, focus on this problem. He didn't say, Theresa May, wrong
0:16:21 > 0:16:25again! He didn't do all the things he does when he wants to slam
0:16:25 > 0:16:30people.I think it's extraordinary when one leader is tweeting at
0:16:30 > 0:16:37another. He didn't use the word sad, so I suppose...He is from you knock
0:16:37 > 0:16:40fashionable New York. He likes this sort of thing. I am saying that you
0:16:40 > 0:16:46are going to have to get used to this. This is going to happen over
0:16:46 > 0:16:49and over again, big, strong, public disagreements.Isn't that the for
0:16:49 > 0:16:56all the rhetoric and the words, unless action is taken, like
0:16:56 > 0:17:00withdrawing the invite or alternative rebukes from Theresa
0:17:00 > 0:17:04May, then the British government is just going to have to live with it?
0:17:04 > 0:17:08This is the case for some good old-fashioned diplomacy, politeness
0:17:08 > 0:17:12in public and blazing rows in private. I think somebody should be
0:17:12 > 0:17:16making clear that this is unacceptable and the damage they are
0:17:16 > 0:17:19doing to the position of Earth as a leader at a time when she is
0:17:19 > 0:17:26vulnerable. If he cares about that relationship, then...Of other
0:17:26 > 0:17:29countries in Europe, just knowing what I do of Mr Trump, he likes the
0:17:29 > 0:17:37British. He likes this country. He respects the reason why they gave
0:17:37 > 0:17:41him the visit is because they knew he'd like it.But it will not change
0:17:41 > 0:17:47his behaviour?Is chief of staff can't get him to stop tweeting.
0:17:47 > 0:17:51Nobody can do that. He has been tweaking things that are repulsive
0:17:51 > 0:17:57for a long time.Should the British government be grateful that Donald
0:17:57 > 0:18:03Trump likes the British and the government?No, but be aware of it,
0:18:03 > 0:18:08try and deploy it, and remember that the relationship between the US and
0:18:08 > 0:18:12UK isn't just Donald Trump. It isn't just Donald Trump and Theresa May.
0:18:12 > 0:18:16There are deep and serious ties in the intelligence community, in the
0:18:16 > 0:18:20military sphere. If you want to improve relations with the United
0:18:20 > 0:18:25States, forget Donald Trump and get back in the game of international
0:18:25 > 0:18:27affairs, get your defence capabilities built up and again be
0:18:27 > 0:18:31the ally of the United States that you had been for decades and
0:18:31 > 0:18:34decades. That is how to do a better job with the United States.Thank
0:18:34 > 0:18:36you.
0:18:36 > 0:18:39Now, it's been widely reported that the UK and the EU might be
0:18:39 > 0:18:42near to agreeing a Brexit divorce settlement at the cost
0:18:42 > 0:18:46of between 40-50 billion euros - that's about £44 billion.
0:18:46 > 0:18:54The EU says negotiations can't move onto trade talks until that,
0:18:54 > 0:18:57and the issue of the Irish border and citizen rights are resolved.
0:18:57 > 0:18:58But never mind the Eurocrats.
0:18:58 > 0:19:00What did the British public make of the figures that
0:19:00 > 0:19:01are being talked about?
0:19:01 > 0:19:07Here's Lizzie with our not-so-scientific moodbox.
0:19:07 > 0:19:12This week, there were reports that the government had decided to update
0:19:12 > 0:19:18of their divorce bill offered to the EU to about £44 billion. Boris
0:19:18 > 0:19:22Johnson says, we will offer a fair deal. Senior backbencher Robert
0:19:22 > 0:19:25Halfon said the British public wouldn't stand for that, in fact,
0:19:25 > 0:19:32they would go bananas. We've come to Eltham, one of the only London areas
0:19:32 > 0:19:35to vote Leave, to find out what people here really think.I'd go
0:19:35 > 0:19:43bananas! I'm not paying all of that out. We need it in this country for
0:19:43 > 0:19:49our hospitals and fat. Iron if it means getting up, I think yes.It's
0:19:49 > 0:19:53disgusting. I don't see why we should pay them a penny. We should
0:19:53 > 0:19:58walk away and say enough is enough. I am probably a bit biased as an EU
0:19:58 > 0:20:06citizen. I would pay for theI think 44 billion is quite a bit. I'd
0:20:06 > 0:20:13prefer to stay.Very expensive to pay that to go out. I would say it
0:20:13 > 0:20:20is bananas.I like the she says bananas.Go bananas.Can you put a
0:20:20 > 0:20:26ball in the box? Thank you.We promised it so we should pay
0:20:26 > 0:20:30something. To me, this is a fair amount. I voted Leave and I knew
0:20:30 > 0:20:42what I was voting for.Go bananas, I think.We need the money here.Well,
0:20:42 > 0:20:45the bananas seem to be in the lead at the moment. Let's try another
0:20:45 > 0:20:57spot.Go bananas.Why?It just would.I'd go bananas. But then
0:20:57 > 0:21:01again, what's a banana between friends?I want to be out of it,
0:21:01 > 0:21:09love. Oche however much you have to pay its all right? Yet, we did all
0:21:09 > 0:21:14right before we even started.Go fair is fair.The dog thinks it's
0:21:14 > 0:21:20fair.I'm going to go bananas. Everybody knows it's ridiculous,
0:21:20 > 0:21:32even the government.Go bananas. Let's go for it. That's it.You are
0:21:32 > 0:21:41wanting us up!My name is Elizabeth. You do realise you got your
0:21:41 > 0:21:48microphone upside down, don't you? Well, the people else have spoken,
0:21:48 > 0:21:51and they are definitely going bananas. It's freezing. We are off
0:21:51 > 0:21:57to get a hot chocolate. Well done for braving the cold.
0:21:57 > 0:22:00We're joined now by the former Work and Pensions Secretary,
0:22:00 > 0:22:03Iain Duncan Smith, who campaigned to leave the EU.
0:22:03 > 0:22:08Your Conservative colleague Robert Halfon MP was right, wasn't he, when
0:22:08 > 0:22:12he said that voters will go bananas about the size of the Brexit Bill.
0:22:12 > 0:22:18Can you justify it?The reality is that we have to put it into
0:22:18 > 0:22:22perspective. The main point is that, whatever they agree, and I don't
0:22:22 > 0:22:26want to have to pay a penny more than we have a legal bind, and
0:22:26 > 0:22:29that's exactly it, I'd like to look at what they agree at the end of the
0:22:29 > 0:22:33day and decide if it has a legal purpose but, notwithstanding, in the
0:22:33 > 0:22:37course of the negotiations they come up with a figure, and it is spread
0:22:37 > 0:22:42over 40 years. At the same time, if we hadn't left the EU over 40 years,
0:22:42 > 0:22:46the net effect of that would have been a contribution of hours of 400
0:22:46 > 0:22:52billion. If you net that out, we are still better off by 360 billion,
0:22:52 > 0:22:57which allows us to spend that on things like health and all the other
0:22:57 > 0:23:04issues.So it's a bargain?Leaving the EU is a bargain, and £360
0:23:04 > 0:23:08billion is the net positive effect of leaving the EU to the UK as and
0:23:08 > 0:23:12when it happens. It isn't money we suddenly plucking out of the budget.
0:23:12 > 0:23:18It's coming out at the same time as money coming back in.When are we
0:23:18 > 0:23:22going to start seeing the Brexit dividend, that money coming back
0:23:22 > 0:23:26that was promised during the campaign?When we leave. We are also
0:23:26 > 0:23:32getting money back. I don't know why this is hard to understand.It isn't
0:23:32 > 0:23:38hard.Hold on, every year, we put net a staggering amount of let's say
0:23:38 > 0:23:44that the figure is £10 billion that we contribute to the EU budget net.
0:23:44 > 0:23:47Over 40 years, that becomes 400 billion that we have put into the EU
0:23:47 > 0:23:51budget. In the same period, we will be getting...You have explained
0:23:51 > 0:23:56that.We will be contributing to that means that net we get money
0:23:56 > 0:24:03back.We will not start get money back for four to five years. It's
0:24:03 > 0:24:08not when we leave.When we no longer contribute, that's why we get the
0:24:08 > 0:24:13money back.But your bus didn't say, we only get that after a transition
0:24:13 > 0:24:18period.I would hope we get out tomorrow, but the reality is that
0:24:18 > 0:24:23what they will finally agree is a settlement, the date we leave if the
0:24:23 > 0:24:29data we no longer make contributions to the EU budget.Right, but the
0:24:29 > 0:24:32government has caved in, hasn't it? You've talked about what we hope
0:24:32 > 0:24:36legally, but the House of Lords committee says that we don't as a
0:24:36 > 0:24:40matter of law oh anything, so you have caved in.I want to see what
0:24:40 > 0:24:45they have agreed and why they've agreed. The government thinks that
0:24:45 > 0:24:49they do owe something, and that is why there may be legal obligations
0:24:49 > 0:24:53as regards to pensions and other things. All I'm saying is let's get
0:24:53 > 0:24:56this in perspective. Whatever the final agreement, and remember that
0:24:56 > 0:25:0120 billion of that is over the implantation period. If there is no
0:25:01 > 0:25:06implementation period, it would only be about 20 billion let's be clear,
0:25:06 > 0:25:10the reality is that what they agree beyond the Inca meditation period is
0:25:10 > 0:25:15about legality.Is your support for paying what we owe still
0:25:15 > 0:25:24conditional?In what regard?On the trade terms?Completely. It's the
0:25:24 > 0:25:31government 's position.But I am asking about you.My government has
0:25:31 > 0:25:35made it clear that, unless they get a free trade arrangement, this money
0:25:35 > 0:25:39is irrelevant, because the money is off the table, and that is the key
0:25:39 > 0:25:44point.So you are paying for access to trade.No, because there is no
0:25:44 > 0:25:49deal. The point is that the deal is that the EU wants to know what our
0:25:49 > 0:25:54commitment is in the future, and we are arguing quite rightly, as the EU
0:25:54 > 0:25:58has accepted, that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.To use
0:25:58 > 0:26:03your word...If there is no agreement, we would go to WTO and
0:26:03 > 0:26:09not accept any binding requirement. You told us it is absolutely hinged
0:26:09 > 0:26:13on a free trade arrangement.Which is the original discussion under
0:26:13 > 0:26:18Article 50.That is paying for access. You are prepared to pay up
0:26:18 > 0:26:27to £44 billion for access to trade, single market.We are not paying
0:26:27 > 0:26:32anything for access. What I'm saying is that the two elements are part of
0:26:32 > 0:26:36Article 50. Article 50 says all of these elements have to be agreed at
0:26:36 > 0:26:42the same time for theI don't understand what we are paying for.
0:26:42 > 0:26:44We are not paying for something. What the government is negotiating
0:26:44 > 0:26:49is whether or not we have a legal obligation with the commitments we
0:26:49 > 0:26:54have made to make payments over a period of time, such as things like
0:26:54 > 0:26:58obligations to British citizens who happen to work for the EU who get a
0:26:58 > 0:27:01pension requirement.But you are saying we only pay it if we get a
0:27:01 > 0:27:08trade deal.If we get a deal... If we don't get an arrangement and an
0:27:08 > 0:27:12agreement, we leave under WTO, there is no agreement to pay any money to
0:27:12 > 0:27:17the EU. That is what this is about. I think most people think, when you
0:27:17 > 0:27:21say it is hinged on a deal, trade being an important part of that,
0:27:21 > 0:27:26which do some people will feel like paying for access, which is
0:27:26 > 0:27:30essentially a tariff, wouldn't it just be better to pay the tariff and
0:27:30 > 0:27:36trade with the EU on WTO terms?I'd be happy to do that, but the reality
0:27:36 > 0:27:40is that their agreement under Article 50, we have to agree all of
0:27:40 > 0:27:45those things if the EU to do it. If not, we will go to WTO and there
0:27:45 > 0:27:51will not be an interim phase and we will leave.Why don't we just do
0:27:51 > 0:27:55that now?I'm not the government. I am simply saying what their position
0:27:55 > 0:28:00is. I have said all along that going to the WTO, as the head of the WTO
0:28:00 > 0:28:03said the other day, it's not a nightmare or a problem, it's wholly
0:28:03 > 0:28:09reasonable. I simply said the government wants to get a free trade
0:28:09 > 0:28:13arrangement and, if that is a decent operable one that gives us good
0:28:13 > 0:28:16access to financial services, on balance, it may be a good thing to
0:28:16 > 0:28:20do, in which case we are prepared to accept it providing we don't go into
0:28:20 > 0:28:24horse trading.How does it look to you, in terms of support from people
0:28:24 > 0:28:29like Iain Duncan Smith for the government? Does it look as if this
0:28:29 > 0:28:37is buying or paying for access with eagerness to get the Brexit date and
0:28:37 > 0:28:41they will pay however much? Iron the government has got itself in a
0:28:41 > 0:28:46pickle because it keeps talking about legal obligations.What is
0:28:46 > 0:28:50going on is political arrangement. Up until 2020, they have a budget
0:28:50 > 0:28:54predicated on us staying in. If we want a transition period, which the
0:28:54 > 0:28:58government has decided that we do, because we are not ready to leave at
0:28:58 > 0:29:02this point, there would be chaos, they are buying time and they are
0:29:02 > 0:29:06buying goodwill, and you can dress it up as legal niceties and all of
0:29:06 > 0:29:10the rest of it, but at the end of the day they want our money and we
0:29:10 > 0:29:15are prepared to grease the wheels to get what we want.You have to
0:29:15 > 0:29:21separate these two out. There two elements to this, and you have
0:29:21 > 0:29:24elided them together. It's right that implementation -- that an Inca
0:29:24 > 0:29:27meditation period, the UK Government has agreed to pay what it would
0:29:27 > 0:29:31normally paid were it's still a member. Separate that, because it
0:29:31 > 0:29:35may well go down as the basis. It says, we are happy to take it to
0:29:35 > 0:29:402020 because that was an obligation. What comes next need a legal base,
0:29:40 > 0:29:45which is to say the remaining money is over 40 years, they need a legal
0:29:45 > 0:29:48foundation or we can't pay them. With things like pensions, is the
0:29:48 > 0:29:55case.So one is an agreement to pay...The issue is that they need
0:29:55 > 0:30:00our money and we are finding ways to provide it to them. Some of that is
0:30:00 > 0:30:04the pensions money, which has a legal basis, and some of that
0:30:04 > 0:30:07frankly is goodwill money.And paying into some organisations and
0:30:07 > 0:30:14institutions.Where we remain a member of certain things, like the
0:30:14 > 0:30:17universities and science programmes, we will pay a simple entry fee.
0:30:17 > 0:30:21Let's look at what else you might agree to do during an Inca
0:30:21 > 0:30:26meditation period. Are you prepared to see overseen by the jurisdiction
0:30:26 > 0:30:31of the European Court of Justice over those two years and be on?No,
0:30:31 > 0:30:36not at all. When we leave, we leave, and the key element is leaving the
0:30:36 > 0:30:39European Court of Justice. To me and most people, it is the Court of
0:30:39 > 0:30:44Justice which defines being a member of the European Union, and by the
0:30:44 > 0:30:47way this would set a historical precedent, you'd have to go back to
0:30:47 > 0:30:51the time when the British were in China when you'd have a happy moment
0:30:51 > 0:30:56when a foreign court ruled over the courts of another country.What
0:30:56 > 0:30:59would you do at that point if the government says we are going to
0:30:59 > 0:31:04continue some sort of jurisdiction from the European court?I'm
0:31:04 > 0:31:07fundamentally opposed, and I'm not alone. The Prime Minister is opposed
0:31:07 > 0:31:12to it as well because, in her Lancaster house speech, she said
0:31:12 > 0:31:16clearly that one of our red lines is no longer being under the authority
0:31:16 > 0:31:21of the European Court of Justice.
0:31:21 > 0:31:24On Donald Trump, what do you think the government should do about the
0:31:24 > 0:31:30invite to Donald Trump?Inviting the head of the United States, the
0:31:30 > 0:31:35President of the United States, of course it has to go ahead. His
0:31:35 > 0:31:38tweets, he tweets on everything at the moment. I know there is a storm
0:31:38 > 0:31:43about on the organisation he tweets is an outrageous and appalling
0:31:43 > 0:31:45organisation but I wouldn't centre too much on that. I would centre on
0:31:45 > 0:31:50the fact when it comes to the visit, we are inviting the head of state of
0:31:50 > 0:31:55a number one ally of hours and at of whom we do the greatest level of
0:31:55 > 0:31:58trade beyond the European Union.The British government just has to put
0:31:58 > 0:32:03up with it?They made their complaints about and is right for us
0:32:03 > 0:32:08to say it is unacceptable for him to insinuate that the UK doesn't do
0:32:08 > 0:32:11enough about Islamic terrorism. That is a matter that should be done
0:32:11 > 0:32:15behind closed doors and in discussion with the Americans. But
0:32:15 > 0:32:22there is a serious criticism about Europe generally having a very poor
0:32:22 > 0:32:25record, the Belgians another's, an extremism and terrorism but this is
0:32:25 > 0:32:28not the way to make it.Thank you, Iain Duncan Smith.
0:32:28 > 0:32:31Now - take back control - that was the oft repeated mantra
0:32:31 > 0:32:32of the Vote Leave campaign.
0:32:32 > 0:32:34But where should that control be returned to after Brexit?
0:32:34 > 0:32:36Westminster or the devolved parliaments in Wales,
0:32:36 > 0:32:40Scotland and Northern Ireland?
0:32:40 > 0:32:43MPs will be debating this on Monday as The Withdrawal Bill
0:32:43 > 0:32:48continue its passage through the Commons.
0:32:48 > 0:32:50That's likely to cause ructions, so to smooth the way,
0:32:50 > 0:32:52First Secretary of State, Damian Green, is meeting
0:32:52 > 0:32:54the Scottish government this afternoon and this morning has been
0:32:54 > 0:32:57speaking to the First Minister of Wales, Carwyn Jones,
0:32:57 > 0:32:58who joins us now from Cardiff.
0:32:58 > 0:33:05How did that meeting go?It was a positive meeting. We made some
0:33:05 > 0:33:09progress, in terms of looking at frameworks in areas like agriculture
0:33:09 > 0:33:14and fisheries. But no progress in terms of the amendments we put down
0:33:14 > 0:33:17for the Withdrawal Bill that would protect the people of Wales.You
0:33:17 > 0:33:21have concerns about what would happen to the Welsh economy when
0:33:21 > 0:33:28Britain leads the EU. Spell out for us what those are.Two thirds of our
0:33:28 > 0:33:33exports go to the European single market. 90% of our food and drink
0:33:33 > 0:33:41exports go there. 70% of trade go there. Whether it is a tariff
0:33:41 > 0:33:45barrier nontariff barrier, if it restricts our ability to send those
0:33:45 > 0:33:50markets, is bad for Wales.Are you going to continue to block Brexit,
0:33:50 > 0:33:54as your critics would see it?No. We put forward some positive proposals
0:33:54 > 0:34:02as to what direction Brexit should look like. We want the softest
0:34:02 > 0:34:07Brexit. I don't accept when people say the vote last year was the
0:34:07 > 0:34:09hardest possible Brexit, that's nonsense, they are putting their own
0:34:09 > 0:34:13spin on it. People voted to leave the EU and we are. There are ways to
0:34:13 > 0:34:18do it that are less damaging than others. We said it is hugely
0:34:18 > 0:34:21important the UK has full access to the single market. We wouldn't leave
0:34:21 > 0:34:25the customs union and have put forward what we think is a
0:34:25 > 0:34:28reasonable and balanced position on fair movement of people.You would
0:34:28 > 0:34:34continue some sort of freedom of movement, and would you be prepared
0:34:34 > 0:34:39to see the European Court of Justice having oversight?I have no problem
0:34:39 > 0:34:43with that. The European Court of Human Rights. Have oversight in
0:34:43 > 0:34:47Britain, regardless of what happens. What we suggest is this, similar to
0:34:47 > 0:34:51what Norway does: Freedom movement to go to a job and a short window
0:34:51 > 0:34:55either side to look for a job, but not an absolute freedom of movement.
0:34:55 > 0:35:02That's what we think the regulations say.That is not Brexit, is it, in
0:35:02 > 0:35:06the way that certainly the Prime Minister has outlined, and nor the
0:35:06 > 0:35:11majority of people in Wales voted for?People voted to leave the EU,
0:35:11 > 0:35:17they didn't say how they wanted to leave the EU.If you don't, if you
0:35:17 > 0:35:21continue with freedom of movement and you want to have similar access
0:35:21 > 0:35:25to the single market, then you haven't left the EU, have you?Well
0:35:25 > 0:35:29you have, because Norway is not in the EU and has those things. It
0:35:29 > 0:35:32doesn't have full access to the single market that that's his
0:35:32 > 0:35:36choice. The reality is we can leave the EU and still have full and
0:35:36 > 0:35:39effective access in the single market, which is important to us. We
0:35:39 > 0:35:42can have a modified version of freedom of movement and yet still
0:35:42 > 0:35:49not be members of the EU and still saddest -- satisfy the EU
0:35:49 > 0:35:53referendum. They were asked to vote on the concept and people are now
0:35:53 > 0:35:57interpreting it in different ways. We put forward ways we think are
0:35:57 > 0:36:01pure common-sense.When you say they voted for a concept, they voting for
0:36:01 > 0:36:09your concept? To like Norway?Well, it was mentioned. There were those
0:36:09 > 0:36:13in the Leave campaign that mentioned Norway as an example of what the UK
0:36:13 > 0:36:18should do. So people did say Norway is the model if the UK leads the EU.
0:36:18 > 0:36:23It should be a surprise. The reality is we don't know. People voted to
0:36:23 > 0:36:26leave the EU. There will be different views on how that is done.
0:36:26 > 0:36:30To my mind, we have to do it in a common-sense way that represents the
0:36:30 > 0:36:34best outcome for Wales and Britain. Would you withhold consent to the
0:36:34 > 0:36:42deal that's done?First of all, we need to remove the problem that
0:36:42 > 0:36:47exists, where powers that would return to Wales under the current
0:36:47 > 0:36:50bill would get sidetracked to Whitehall with the decision as to
0:36:50 > 0:36:54whether we get that decision or not. We cannot accept that. If that
0:36:54 > 0:36:58decision is done with, no problem. If it is not, will you withhold
0:36:58 > 0:37:03consent?We're not going to prove it now. What the UK Government is
0:37:03 > 0:37:06asking us to do is to go to the assembly are they there are powers
0:37:06 > 0:37:09coming to us, would you agree to those powers going to London
0:37:09 > 0:37:14instead? And at some point they may give us those powers back. No UK
0:37:14 > 0:37:16Government, no Prime Minister would ever stand up in Parliament and do
0:37:16 > 0:37:20that and I'm not prepared to do that in the Welsh Parliament. Who would
0:37:20 > 0:37:28do that? There's a different way of doing it. We understand what the UK
0:37:28 > 0:37:30Government is trying to do, create certainty, we understand that. I
0:37:30 > 0:37:32think we can create that certainty through agreement and not in
0:37:32 > 0:37:35position. We have the scenario now, for example, in areas devolved such
0:37:35 > 0:37:40as farming and fisheries, the Welsh would be restrained in what they
0:37:40 > 0:37:46could do but the other ministers could do what they wanted.You are
0:37:46 > 0:37:50facing questions into how you handle the claims against Labour's Carl
0:37:50 > 0:37:55Sargent, who was found dead after being sacked about comments he made
0:37:55 > 0:38:00about women.Howdy respond to that? His funeral is tomorrow. There is a
0:38:00 > 0:38:03time and place the questions and answers but today is not that time,
0:38:03 > 0:38:07I don't think it would be right. Thank you for joining us, Colin
0:38:07 > 0:38:13Jones. What is your view about what we decide on how the Prime Minister
0:38:13 > 0:38:19would respond?All these sort of different groups that have a view
0:38:19 > 0:38:22and Welsh and Scottish governments are quite powerful and have an
0:38:22 > 0:38:25ability to put a spanner in the works, along with some of the MPs
0:38:25 > 0:38:30who supported remain who are trying to steer things in the direction of
0:38:30 > 0:38:33a soft Brexit. I was very interested, when you asked him the
0:38:33 > 0:38:38question, are you going to block this deal? In the same way as you
0:38:38 > 0:38:42ask MPs who supported remain whether ultimately they would vote down any
0:38:42 > 0:38:45deal Theresa May doesn't Europe, they are in a difficult position.
0:38:45 > 0:38:49They don't want answer the question. The alternative to the deal Theresa
0:38:49 > 0:38:55May does is not better deal but no deal at all and going to WTO rules.
0:38:55 > 0:39:00Hard to see the Welsh or Scottish oil remain MPs ever voting for that.
0:39:00 > 0:39:02Let's leave it there.
0:39:02 > 0:39:04Theresa May is currently touring the Middle East
0:39:04 > 0:39:07and yesterday she held meetings with Crown Prince Mohammed bin
0:39:07 > 0:39:09Salman, the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia.
0:39:09 > 0:39:11The Prime Minister has faced criticism for not being tougher
0:39:11 > 0:39:13on the Kingdom for its continued involvement in the
0:39:13 > 0:39:16civil war in Yemen.
0:39:16 > 0:39:19Saudi Arabia has imposed a blockade on Yemen's borders, causing huge
0:39:19 > 0:39:21shortages with 2.5 million people currently not having access to clean
0:39:21 > 0:39:23water and around 7 million being totally dependent
0:39:23 > 0:39:27on food assistance.
0:39:27 > 0:39:30What's more, the Saudi government is leading a coalition supporting
0:39:30 > 0:39:31the Yemeni government against Iranian backed Houthi
0:39:31 > 0:39:35rebels, and there have been reports of thousands of civilian casualties.
0:39:35 > 0:39:40Britain is a major exporter of arms to the Kingdom.
0:39:40 > 0:39:43Speaking yesterday, Mrs May said would be speaking to Saudi Arabia
0:39:43 > 0:39:45about the situation in Yemen.
0:39:45 > 0:39:48I'm very concerned about the humanitarian crisis that
0:39:48 > 0:39:52has developed in Yemen, particularly most recently.
0:39:52 > 0:39:55That's why the strong message I'll be giving to Saudi Arabia tonight
0:39:55 > 0:39:59is that we want to see Hodeida port opened for humanitarian
0:39:59 > 0:40:00and commercial access.
0:40:00 > 0:40:03That's important.
0:40:03 > 0:40:04I think the international community is concerned
0:40:04 > 0:40:07about the humanitarian crisis in Yemen.
0:40:07 > 0:40:09That access for commercial and humanitarian goods is important
0:40:09 > 0:40:12through Hodeida port.
0:40:12 > 0:40:17We're joined now by the Shadow Defence Secretary, Nia Griffith.
0:40:17 > 0:40:23Welcome to the programme. Would Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, be
0:40:23 > 0:40:27visiting Saudi Arabia if he was the Prime Minister?He would be trying
0:40:27 > 0:40:30to influence the Saudi government. I think it is very, very important
0:40:30 > 0:40:36that we have a proper, competitive and independent UN led investigation
0:40:36 > 0:40:40into what exactly is happening in Yemen at the moment, and in
0:40:40 > 0:40:45particular we want them to lift that blockade, so that humanitarian aid
0:40:45 > 0:40:49can get in through the ports.Worked the best way to do that be to visit
0:40:49 > 0:40:54the country and hold talks? Certainly it is one way forward. We
0:40:54 > 0:40:59have also said we should suspend arms sales to Saudi Arabia, pending
0:40:59 > 0:41:04that UN investigation. Again, I think it is very important that we
0:41:04 > 0:41:07have a responsible relationship with Saudi Arabia. They're not just an
0:41:07 > 0:41:10export partner for us but also a coalition partner in the Middle
0:41:10 > 0:41:16East. We need to be frank with our partners like that and say when we
0:41:16 > 0:41:20want to call them out and don't accept...You would halt arms
0:41:20 > 0:41:24exports to Saudi Arabia whilst you carried out that investigation. How
0:41:24 > 0:41:28would that help relations with the country?I think it's very, very
0:41:28 > 0:41:31important we play with Saudi Arabia what is not acceptable. Whilst we
0:41:31 > 0:41:36are having an investigation, where they could have been breaches of
0:41:36 > 0:41:38international humanitarian law, it's very important that we show that we
0:41:38 > 0:41:45take very seriously.By holding arms exporter and cutting any ties?I
0:41:45 > 0:41:51think it's very important we show a clear message...How do you do that?
0:41:51 > 0:41:56By halting the arms export. We have a very clear licensing system in
0:41:56 > 0:41:58this country and responsible employers, responsible companies
0:41:58 > 0:42:03understand why we have that.Would you cut diplomatic ties was that
0:42:03 > 0:42:07investigation is going on?What we need to look at is what kind of
0:42:07 > 0:42:10response we get from Saudi Arabia. It's very important we keep channels
0:42:10 > 0:42:14of communication open but that we make it very clear what we do not
0:42:14 > 0:42:19accept in their behaviour.Your party isn't united on this issue,
0:42:19 > 0:42:26though, or this policy that you have just spoken on. More than 100 Labour
0:42:26 > 0:42:30MPs abstained when it was put forward in the Commons.The
0:42:30 > 0:42:33important thing is there are different ways of wedding motions.
0:42:33 > 0:42:38The important thing is...You are the Shadow Defence Secretary that
0:42:38 > 0:42:41you haven't got the support of 100 Labour MPs on it.It is very
0:42:41 > 0:42:44important we take very seriously what's happening in Yemen and we
0:42:44 > 0:42:50deal with the issue in Yemen, but that we do recognise that in the
0:42:50 > 0:42:52broader the delays, Saudi Arabia has been a very important coalition
0:42:52 > 0:42:58partner. So it is very important we keep those channels of communication
0:42:58 > 0:43:02open and we can call out Saudi Arabia for what we understand and
0:43:02 > 0:43:06see that it's doing wrong.Would that not, as you just said, you see
0:43:06 > 0:43:10them as an important coalition partner, would that not risk the
0:43:10 > 0:43:14relationship with Saudi Arabia and lose influence in the region? Not
0:43:14 > 0:43:18even during party supports the line. I think it's important to stand up
0:43:18 > 0:43:24for what's right.So those 100 Labour MPs are wrong? Empty gesture
0:43:24 > 0:43:28politics is what John Woodcock said at the time.What you have to look
0:43:28 > 0:43:31at is the actual wording of the resolution. It wasn't something that
0:43:31 > 0:43:39perhaps was universally easy to get behind. Because it referenced the
0:43:39 > 0:43:44coalition and what we want to be very clear about is that we keep the
0:43:44 > 0:43:47dialogue open with Saudi Arabia but we call them out where there are
0:43:47 > 0:43:51things that are totally unacceptable. So we want a proper
0:43:51 > 0:43:54investigation, to see exactly what happened, to see what breaches of
0:43:54 > 0:43:58law there have been and pending that investigation, the result of that
0:43:58 > 0:44:02investigation, we have said we would want to see arms sales suspended to
0:44:02 > 0:44:06Saudi.What you say when the High Court ruled the arms were perfectly
0:44:06 > 0:44:11legal?Sales can be legal but the question we are asking is whether it
0:44:11 > 0:44:16is a sale we want to make when we are seeing something happening in
0:44:16 > 0:44:20Yemen which is shocking people in this country. I think the crisis
0:44:20 > 0:44:25that is in Yemen at the moment is one of the worst things we've seen,
0:44:25 > 0:44:30and people are really concerned about that. So they are very, very
0:44:30 > 0:44:34concerned that we should be doing anything which, if you like, shores
0:44:34 > 0:44:38up that. An investigation will reveal exactly what is going on.
0:44:38 > 0:44:42That is why we are calling for it, and then we can see where we proceed
0:44:42 > 0:44:46from there. It is important we are prepared to speak up to those allies
0:44:46 > 0:44:51that we sometimes think I'm not doing the right thing.By halting
0:44:51 > 0:44:54arms exports to Saudi Arabia do you accept you would be putting at risk
0:44:54 > 0:44:59thousands of jobs, many of them in Labour held areas?As I said, the
0:44:59 > 0:45:03talks I've had with the companies, they do understand why we want to
0:45:03 > 0:45:06have a responsible arms export company.They are prepared for those
0:45:06 > 0:45:10jobs to be put at risk?They understand why we have proper
0:45:10 > 0:45:13licensing and they do understand that sometimes it is necessary to
0:45:13 > 0:45:17call out specific countries on specific actions they are taking.Do
0:45:17 > 0:45:21you think, Tim Shipman, Theresa May will revise the relationship with
0:45:21 > 0:45:27Saudi Arabia and Roback on contact? I don't think there is any prospect
0:45:27 > 0:45:30of that, thankfully. There is a close security relationship with
0:45:30 > 0:45:34Saudi Arabia which Theresa May, been a silent Home Secretary for six
0:45:34 > 0:45:37years knows all about. There's a lot of intelligence exchange. Theresa
0:45:37 > 0:45:42May hasn't done a lot in foreign affairs. One of the things she did
0:45:42 > 0:45:46do last December is go to the golf Corporation cars, the first female
0:45:46 > 0:45:49leader ever to address it, and she sees cooperation with Saudi Arabia
0:45:49 > 0:45:54as a sort of a key cornerstone of her foreign policy. They have some
0:45:54 > 0:45:57hope the new Crown Prince is liberalising things and is someone
0:45:57 > 0:46:00they can do business with. I don't think there's any prospect of them
0:46:00 > 0:46:02doing what the Labour Party wants at this point.,
0:46:05 > 0:46:07Nia Griffith, thank you.
0:46:08 > 0:46:09Now, to say it's been an unpredictable year
0:46:09 > 0:46:11in British politics is a bit, well, predictable.
0:46:11 > 0:46:14Our guest of the day, Tim Shipman, has written this weighty
0:46:14 > 0:46:16tome taking the reader through Theresa May's tumultuous
0:46:16 > 0:46:1712 months or so.
0:46:17 > 0:46:19But don't worry, if time's short - here's most of
0:46:19 > 0:46:21what happened in two minutes.
0:46:21 > 0:46:24The Article 50 process is now under way and,
0:46:24 > 0:46:27in accordance with the wishes of the British people,
0:46:27 > 0:46:31the United Kingdom is leaving the European Union.
0:46:32 > 0:46:34Today, as we face this critical election for our
0:46:34 > 0:46:40country, I launch my manifesto for Britain's future.
0:46:40 > 0:46:41General election.
0:46:41 > 0:46:42You're joking!
0:46:42 > 0:46:46Not another one?!
0:46:46 > 0:46:49You have just announced a significant change to what was
0:46:49 > 0:46:52offered in your manifesto, saying there will now be
0:46:52 > 0:46:55the possibility of a cap on social care.
0:46:55 > 0:46:57That was not in the plans that were announced
0:46:57 > 0:46:58just four days ago.
0:46:58 > 0:47:01That doesn't look so strong and stable, Prime Minister, does it?
0:47:01 > 0:47:03Nothing has changed.
0:47:04 > 0:47:07Nothing has changed.
0:47:07 > 0:47:09And what we are saying is, the Conservatives
0:47:09 > 0:47:11are the largest party.
0:47:11 > 0:47:15Note they don't have an overall majority at this stage.
0:47:15 > 0:47:18At counts across the country, Conservative dreams
0:47:18 > 0:47:20of a thumping majority crumbled.
0:47:20 > 0:47:24# We'll keep the red flag flying here...#
0:47:24 > 0:47:28CHANTING: No peace!No justice!
0:47:28 > 0:47:31CHANTING: May must go! May must go!
0:47:35 > 0:47:42I'm not hearing any whistling, just the clock ticking.
0:47:43 > 0:47:47# I'm a survivor, I'm not going to give up...#
0:47:47 > 0:47:53Today, we have reached an agreement with the Conservative Party
0:47:53 > 0:47:58on support for government in Parliament.
0:47:59 > 0:48:01Boris is absolutely behind the Florence speech and the
0:48:01 > 0:48:03line that we have taken.
0:48:03 > 0:48:03Is he unsackable?
0:48:03 > 0:48:06SHE LAUGHS.
0:48:06 > 0:48:10While our opponents flirt with a foreign
0:48:10 > 0:48:14policy of neutrality...
0:48:14 > 0:48:16It sounds as if my voice isn't on track.
0:48:16 > 0:48:19SHE COUGHS.
0:48:19 > 0:48:23# I'm a survivor, keep on survivor.
0:48:26 > 0:48:28We're joined now by Theresa May's former strategy director
0:48:28 > 0:48:31and chief speech writer, Chris Wilkins.
0:48:31 > 0:48:33He was so important, there's a whole appendix devoted
0:48:33 > 0:48:39to him in Tim's book.
0:48:39 > 0:48:45I have that book it, weighing down the table. Where did you find time
0:48:45 > 0:48:49to write it?If Theresa May and Margaret Thatcher can get by on four
0:48:49 > 0:48:54hour sleep, why should journalists be different!You spoke to over 100
0:48:54 > 0:48:56people when you are writing this, explaining how the referendum
0:48:56 > 0:49:03plunged Britain into a year of mayhem. What are the key moments?
0:49:03 > 0:49:08The first part of the book is about the debates in the cabinet up until
0:49:08 > 0:49:12the declaration of Article 50, the timing of it and how they did it,
0:49:12 > 0:49:17then about the general election and then the leadership that followed
0:49:17 > 0:49:21it, and how Theresa May finally got herself en route to delivering some
0:49:21 > 0:49:28of that Brexit stuff.What juicy revelations did you find out?Having
0:49:28 > 0:49:32interviewed over 100 people, and ask every single Tory who was in charge
0:49:32 > 0:49:35of the election campaign, not one of them was able to give me a straight
0:49:35 > 0:49:40answer. That was an interesting moment. You have a whole campaign
0:49:40 > 0:49:45throughout the last autumn portraying Theresa May in a
0:49:45 > 0:49:49particular way but, when they came to the election campaign, they
0:49:49 > 0:49:54portrayed her in a different way, and it didn't work so well.
0:49:54 > 0:49:58Hindsight is a wonderful thing, and she blew it in terms of the election
0:49:58 > 0:50:04and the majority. Should she have called it? Was she right to call it?
0:50:04 > 0:50:08Absolutely, I think she was right to call it. I counselled her to call it
0:50:08 > 0:50:12and I think there were several reasons for doing so. It didn't work
0:50:12 > 0:50:16out how we wanted and there were missteps along the way and some bad
0:50:16 > 0:50:20decisions made in terms of campaign strategy and the communication
0:50:20 > 0:50:25strategy behind it, which was quite updated -- outdated. The underlying
0:50:25 > 0:50:28reasons for calling the election were sound, in terms of getting a
0:50:28 > 0:50:31mandate for change and physically putting back the Brexit timetable so
0:50:31 > 0:50:40we didn't have it in 2020 -- an election in 2020.Who do you blame
0:50:40 > 0:50:45for what went wrong?We all have to take the blame. There were hundreds
0:50:45 > 0:50:48of things. Underpinned by probably two things. The campaign strategy
0:50:48 > 0:50:53which the campaign team decided would pitch the Conservative Party
0:50:53 > 0:51:00and the Prime Minister as the status quo in an election that I think was
0:51:00 > 0:51:04about change, and the communication strategy, which was outdated, in my
0:51:04 > 0:51:08view. In modern campaigns, you have to speak to people's emotions and
0:51:08 > 0:51:12feelings and we thought, if you came up with a feud phrases, it would
0:51:12 > 0:51:17convince them that I don't think it worked.Who was to blame in your
0:51:17 > 0:51:21mind for deciding it should be a presidential style election, when
0:51:21 > 0:51:26many would argue actually get exposed weaknesses of Theresa May?
0:51:26 > 0:51:31There were two camps in the election campaign, the Timothy Amber Rudd
0:51:31 > 0:51:42Theresa May...Seen as the brains. -- the Timothy campaign. Some
0:51:42 > 0:51:46research found that Theresa May was a popular figure in should be put at
0:51:46 > 0:51:50the heart of the campaign. I think they didn't mind that, they thought
0:51:50 > 0:51:55she was a transformational leader, and she was put at the heart of it.
0:51:55 > 0:52:00500 pages of reasons to blame one person or another. I think Nick
0:52:00 > 0:52:03would acknowledge that the manifesto he wrote was a problem and, if you
0:52:03 > 0:52:08look at the internal polling, things got off a cliff halfway through the
0:52:08 > 0:52:11campaign but, after that had happened, the Prime Minister herself
0:52:11 > 0:52:15was unable to raise the game and deal with the TB exchanges that she
0:52:15 > 0:52:21had, and I think people who looked at her and had seen somebody who was
0:52:21 > 0:52:24a different kind of Conservative, portraying herself a strong and
0:52:24 > 0:52:28stable, they looked at her and said, you don't seem to like being at the
0:52:28 > 0:52:31heart of all of this. Ultimately, there were problems with the
0:52:31 > 0:52:35strategy and the personnel, and the person in a position to be able to
0:52:35 > 0:52:38make decisions about who was doing those jobs, that was the Prime
0:52:38 > 0:52:44Minister herself. You can't blame Lynton Crosby for it. If you don't
0:52:44 > 0:52:47like the campaign, don't hire him. Let's talk about the manifesto. You
0:52:47 > 0:52:54talked about nick Timothy being behind the social care policy. How
0:52:54 > 0:52:58big a mistake was that?We went into the election thinking was about
0:52:58 > 0:53:02change and we needed a mandate to deliver bad and we set out to
0:53:02 > 0:53:06deliver a manifesto to give us that mandate. I don't see the point of
0:53:06 > 0:53:10having an election and not putting things in that. I think there were a
0:53:10 > 0:53:19couple of things. First, it was clearly a big policy, we didn't
0:53:19 > 0:53:21communicate around the policy, and that was because the campaign team
0:53:21 > 0:53:27decided they didn't want to concentrate on policy. The broader
0:53:27 > 0:53:31problem with the manifesto actually, to be fair, was what wasn't in it
0:53:31 > 0:53:34rather than what was. I was surprised when I saw it that there
0:53:34 > 0:53:37were things I thought would appear that would have been more retail
0:53:37 > 0:53:42friendly, that were not there. In my view, it was the absence of certain
0:53:42 > 0:53:47things, rather than the particular fact that one policy was in there.
0:53:47 > 0:53:52Would that have delivered a different result?I think, it's not
0:53:52 > 0:53:56all about the manifesto, but the manifesto was a symptom of the wider
0:53:56 > 0:54:01problem. We went into the campaign and research which delivered a
0:54:01 > 0:54:04strategy that was all about change and the big changes we wanted to
0:54:04 > 0:54:09bring to the country in the context of the referendum. As soon as the
0:54:09 > 0:54:11election campaign was called, we stretched strategy completely and
0:54:11 > 0:54:17became the candidate of the status quo. -- we switched strategy board
0:54:17 > 0:54:21so the manifesto was a halfway house with some big ideas but not many,
0:54:21 > 0:54:26and it stemmed back to the original decision. I think that was
0:54:26 > 0:54:28fundamentally bad thing.Did it also showed that people didn't know
0:54:28 > 0:54:35Theresa May? If they thought she'd be up to handle and carried the sort
0:54:35 > 0:54:39of campaign that had been designed for her by Lynton Crosby and others,
0:54:39 > 0:54:44did the people around her overestimate her?I think some of
0:54:44 > 0:54:47them perhaps, but what they had successfully done at the Home Office
0:54:47 > 0:54:51was run a strategy where she kept her head down and appeared once in a
0:54:51 > 0:54:55while and did big set piece things, and everybody I talked to said that
0:54:55 > 0:55:00she and her team delivered these big set piece speeches really
0:55:00 > 0:55:03effectively. She isn't so good at adapting to changing circumstances
0:55:03 > 0:55:09and events that move quicker than those decision maces --
0:55:09 > 0:55:12decision-making processes move. She likes to take her time. When events
0:55:12 > 0:55:16happen that need an instinctive response, it isn't always clear
0:55:16 > 0:55:21there is one.Do you think the Brexit strategy has been successful
0:55:21 > 0:55:24so far?I think where we are at the end of this year with the strategy
0:55:24 > 0:55:28is about where we thought we would be. A lot has been written about it,
0:55:28 > 0:55:32but actually we are pretty much on track to where we thought we'd be
0:55:32 > 0:55:36when we sat down and talked about it first off when we were in Downing
0:55:36 > 0:55:39Street.You wouldn't have agreed the first bit of the negotiations and
0:55:39 > 0:55:45yet to move on to the next bit?It would be the key time to try and
0:55:45 > 0:55:48agree the things that are on the table, and we look forward to a
0:55:48 > 0:55:53positive response from the EU this week, and to forget that, if I look
0:55:53 > 0:55:56back to the conversations we I think this was about the timetable.Thank
0:55:56 > 0:55:58you.
0:55:58 > 0:56:01There's just time before we go to find out the answer to our quiz.
0:56:01 > 0:56:04The question was where have Mrs and Miss gone missing?
0:56:04 > 0:56:05Is it...
0:56:05 > 0:56:07In the classroom, at Wimbledon, in the law courts,
0:56:07 > 0:56:10or in the council chamber?
0:56:10 > 0:56:17So, Tim, what's the correct answer?
0:56:17 > 0:56:20I'll have a D please, Bob.That is correct, yes.
0:56:20 > 0:56:22Yes, Debretts - the authority on etiquette and behaviour -
0:56:22 > 0:56:25has changed their advice on how female councillors should be
0:56:25 > 0:56:26addressed after Deneice Florence-Jukes, a councillor
0:56:26 > 0:56:29in East Staffordshire, objected to the way in which she and other
0:56:29 > 0:56:30women were referred to.
0:56:30 > 0:56:33The convention of referring to female councillors
0:56:33 > 0:56:36as Mrs or Miss - but never using Mr for men dates
0:56:36 > 0:56:39back to at least 1907.
0:56:39 > 0:56:42Well, we can speak now to Councillor Deneice Florence-Jukes
0:56:42 > 0:56:49who's in our Derby studio.
0:56:49 > 0:56:52This is quite an achievement for someone who is new to politics!It
0:56:52 > 0:57:01is, yes. I joined to get change, and I've done that.What did you have to
0:57:01 > 0:57:07do to get Debretts to change their advice?I have been lobbying
0:57:07 > 0:57:11Debretts for quite a few weeks now, appealing to them that it's an
0:57:11 > 0:57:15outdated practice and good they look at it, and yesterday we heard the
0:57:15 > 0:57:19fantastic news that they have addressed it and abandoned it, which
0:57:19 > 0:57:26is great. It's only taken 110 years! It only took you a few weeks to put
0:57:26 > 0:57:29the pressure on. I gather that is Staffordshire borough council are
0:57:29 > 0:57:35voting on your motion in a few days. I presume you expect it to pass.I
0:57:35 > 0:57:40would hope so. There has been a bit of resistance to some change in some
0:57:40 > 0:57:44quarters but I hope, once they hear my argument in full in chamber on
0:57:44 > 0:57:48Monday, I will be able to convince them that it is the right move.
0:57:48 > 0:57:55Where is the resistance coming from? From ladies that like being called
0:57:55 > 0:57:59Mrs. I am battling against the very people I'm trying to assist, really.
0:57:59 > 0:58:07What do you say to them?I say, go with the programme. It's completely
0:58:07 > 0:58:12outdated, it's not necessary at all, and it isn't helping the cause of
0:58:12 > 0:58:16equality and diversity. If we look at our chamber, it lacks diversity,
0:58:16 > 0:58:21and I'm hoping that it's a way of addressing that and encouraging more
0:58:21 > 0:58:26people to come into the council, so that we better reflect the borough
0:58:26 > 0:58:30and the people we serve.You are no stranger to titles, having
0:58:30 > 0:58:34previously been with the military and police. How are they doing
0:58:34 > 0:58:37equality of title?We've had our first ever Metropolitan Police
0:58:37 > 0:58:42female commissioner in Cressida Dick, the London Fire Brigade have
0:58:42 > 0:58:50Danny cotton. I first joined the WPC, it changed to police officer,
0:58:50 > 0:58:53so we've seen that change, and it's positive. It shows that, if you get
0:58:53 > 0:58:57rid of those... I have to stop you because we are
0:58:57 > 0:58:58running out of time.
0:58:58 > 0:58:59That's all for today.
0:58:59 > 0:59:03Thanks to our guests.
0:59:03 > 0:59:05You can have a rest now!
0:59:05 > 0:59:08Bye-bye.