0:00:38 > 0:00:41Hello and welcome to The Daily Politics.
0:00:41 > 0:00:47Leaked government documents suggest the economy will be worse off
0:00:47 > 0:00:48once we leave the EU.
0:00:48 > 0:00:50The papers have enraged Eurosceptic MPs, who are already concerned
0:00:50 > 0:00:53at the direction the Brexit negotiations are going -
0:00:53 > 0:00:58we'll look at the details.
0:00:58 > 0:00:59Meanwhile, the Lords have just begun their scrutiny
0:00:59 > 0:01:03of the EU Withdrawal Bill - just how far will they go in trying
0:01:03 > 0:01:06to amend the legislation, and what could the consequences be?
0:01:06 > 0:01:10We'll speak to two leading peers.
0:01:10 > 0:01:13Leading surgeon Lord Darzi tells us the NHS must reform to survive -
0:01:13 > 0:01:20we'll look at the options.
0:01:20 > 0:01:24And Environment Secretary Michael Gove enrages animal rights groups
0:01:24 > 0:01:26by suggesting the grey squirrel could be culled -
0:01:26 > 0:01:29we'll ask if he's right.
0:01:34 > 0:01:38All that in the next hour, and with us for the whole
0:01:38 > 0:01:40of the programme today is the director of the Institute for
0:01:40 > 0:01:45Public Policy Research, Tom Kibasi - welcome to the show.
0:01:45 > 0:01:49First this morning, a cross party group of MPs has set out
0:01:49 > 0:01:51new proposals for dealing with sexual harassment
0:01:51 > 0:01:52and bullying in Parliament.
0:01:52 > 0:01:55Under the plans, there would be a behaviour code covering
0:01:55 > 0:01:57parliamentary and constituency staff, as well as an independent
0:01:57 > 0:02:00grievance procedure.
0:02:00 > 0:02:02What's more, the parliamentary commissioner would get new powers
0:02:02 > 0:02:05to suspend MPs from the House, which could in turn lead
0:02:05 > 0:02:13to them to be recalled and possibly lose their seat.
0:02:16 > 0:02:20Do you welcome these changes?I think it is a good package of
0:02:20 > 0:02:22changes, actually. They're sensible and proportionate and I think the
0:02:22 > 0:02:26committee has done a good job.Do you think they go far enough,
0:02:26 > 0:02:29bearing in mind the number of complaints and the scale of the
0:02:29 > 0:02:34problem?It is certainly a big step forward. It raises the broader point
0:02:34 > 0:02:38about whether these are staff members should really be employed by
0:02:38 > 0:02:41MPs themselves, or whether they should be employed by parliament
0:02:41 > 0:02:50itself like a regular employer. But as a package I
0:02:50 > 0:02:52as a package I think it is a significant step forward.What about
0:02:52 > 0:02:55the professionalisation of the way Parliament is run? In your mind do
0:02:55 > 0:02:57you think it should end, the fact that MPs are self-employed and
0:02:57 > 0:02:59should there be a centralised human resources team so that any
0:02:59 > 0:03:04complaints go through that system and staff don't have to worry about
0:03:04 > 0:03:07retribution?I think it would be a rather good idea to have
0:03:07 > 0:03:11Parliamentary staff employed by Parliament itself and to modernise
0:03:11 > 0:03:15Parliament and bring it into the 21st century and treat it like any
0:03:15 > 0:03:20other employer with the same rights and protections, I think that would
0:03:20 > 0:03:24be a big step forward. This is certainly progress, but I think the
0:03:24 > 0:03:26destination that you describe is absolutely where we should be
0:03:26 > 0:03:31heading to.What about the issue of recall? At the moment it is
0:03:31 > 0:03:34something which can be used by constituents if their MP is found
0:03:34 > 0:03:40guilty of a criminal offence, or if they are sent to jail - do you agree
0:03:40 > 0:03:44with broadening it out to cover sexual harassment or bullying as
0:03:44 > 0:03:49well?At the moment it says it can be either if you are committed for a
0:03:49 > 0:03:55criminal offence, or suspended for 21 days. So this is the
0:03:55 > 0:03:57Parliamentary commissioner at the power to suspend members of
0:03:57 > 0:04:01Parliament, and I think that is sensible. Members of Parliament
0:04:01 > 0:04:05should only be able to dismissed by the people who elect them and I
0:04:05 > 0:04:08think the recall mechanism is a sensible thing. Ultimately the power
0:04:08 > 0:04:14has to rest with the people who put them there, they should be able to
0:04:14 > 0:04:17boot them out if necessary.
0:04:17 > 0:04:21Now it's time for our daily quiz.
0:04:21 > 0:04:23The question for today is? What has the Defence Secretary,
0:04:23 > 0:04:25Gavin Williamson, reportedly demanded be removed
0:04:25 > 0:04:27from the Ministry of Defence?
0:04:27 > 0:04:28Was it...
0:04:28 > 0:04:29A) Pictures of Theresa May?
0:04:29 > 0:04:30B) A bust of Winston Churchill?
0:04:30 > 0:04:31C) EU flags?
0:04:31 > 0:04:33Or D) Copies of The Guardian?
0:04:33 > 0:04:36At the end of the show, Tom will give us the correct answer.
0:04:36 > 0:04:38Theresa May chaired cabinet this morning, and I would imagine
0:04:38 > 0:04:40there was quite a bit to talk about.
0:04:40 > 0:04:44She is due to embark on a business trip to China.
0:04:44 > 0:04:46But troubles over the Prime Minister's Brexit
0:04:46 > 0:04:50policy persist at home.
0:04:50 > 0:04:51But troubles over the Prime Minister's Brexit
0:04:51 > 0:04:52policy persist at home.
0:04:52 > 0:04:55Leaked Whitehall analysis published by Buzzfeed News says that the UK
0:04:55 > 0:04:58economy will grow more slowly outside the EU, no matter what deal
0:04:58 > 0:04:59is struck with Brussels.
0:04:59 > 0:05:01Some Brexit-supporting MPs swiftly rejected the findings,
0:05:01 > 0:05:04with the likes of Iain Duncan-Smith calling it "incomplete"
0:05:04 > 0:05:10and "deliberately leaked because it gives a bad view".
0:05:10 > 0:05:13Government sources say that its preferred bespoke trade
0:05:13 > 0:05:20deal option wasn't included, and that the UK will NOT be worse
0:05:20 > 0:05:21off outside the EU.
0:05:21 > 0:05:23Meanwhile, the Sun newspaper reports comments
0:05:23 > 0:05:25from the International Trade Secretary, Liam Fox,
0:05:25 > 0:05:29that Eurosceptic colleagues need to "live with disappointment"
0:05:29 > 0:05:35and accept that the Tories don't have a working majority.
0:05:35 > 0:05:38Dr Fox has since issued a clarification, saying
0:05:38 > 0:05:39that his comments were instead directed against those
0:05:39 > 0:05:42plotting against Mrs May.
0:05:42 > 0:05:45It comes as the government prepares for a legislative
0:05:45 > 0:05:49showdown in the Lords, where the EU Withdrawal Bill is set
0:05:49 > 0:05:52to be debated for the first time.
0:05:52 > 0:05:54Almost 200 peers are expected to speak in the debate,
0:05:54 > 0:05:58although no votes are expected to take place until
0:05:58 > 0:06:01later next month.
0:06:01 > 0:06:05In Brussels, meanwhile, the EU agreed its negotiating guidelines
0:06:05 > 0:06:08for the transition period.
0:06:08 > 0:06:10The EU's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, said the UK
0:06:10 > 0:06:13would continue to accept all EU rules - including rule changes
0:06:13 > 0:06:16adopted after March 2019 - but that it would not be
0:06:16 > 0:06:20involved in decision-making.
0:06:20 > 0:06:22Downing Street, however, insists there will be a negotiation
0:06:22 > 0:06:28on the transition period.
0:06:28 > 0:06:31With me now is the Conservative MP Stephen Hammond, who lost his job
0:06:31 > 0:06:34as vice-chairman of the party after he rebelled against
0:06:34 > 0:06:36the government and voted for an amendment to the EU
0:06:36 > 0:06:40Withdrawal Bill, calling for a meaningful vote.
0:06:40 > 0:06:46Welcome to The Daily Politics. Let's talk about the analysis that's been
0:06:46 > 0:06:52leaked. Before the referendum, then Chancellor George Osborne told us
0:06:52 > 0:06:57the vote to leave would spark a year-long recession and it would
0:06:57 > 0:07:00cost 820,000 jobs within two years, and David Cameron said Brexit would
0:07:00 > 0:07:05put a bomb under the British economy - of those fears were wrong then,
0:07:05 > 0:07:09why shouldn't they be wrong now? Well, they were wrong then and I'm
0:07:09 > 0:07:13pleased that so many people have stayed in their jobs. But the last
0:07:13 > 0:07:16set of economic news showed slightly better growth but it also showed
0:07:16 > 0:07:20that we have gone from the fastest-growing to the slowest
0:07:20 > 0:07:23growing economy around, and it also showed that we have the slowest rate
0:07:23 > 0:07:28for five years. The reason why I think this is embarrassing for the
0:07:28 > 0:07:32government today is that first of all, this was a confidential, cross
0:07:32 > 0:07:36Whitehall paper that was shown to ministers confidentially, so someone
0:07:36 > 0:07:40has leaked it, so that is embarrassing. And secondly it does
0:07:40 > 0:07:44show a consensus that whatever option you look at, unfortunately
0:07:44 > 0:07:47our economy will grow less fast when we leave the EU.And you have talked
0:07:47 > 0:07:53about how embarrassing the leaked is - isn't the timing of it suspect?
0:07:53 > 0:07:58Nigel Evans, one of your colleagues, says it is part of a dirty tricks
0:07:58 > 0:08:02campaign, licked by somebody who wants a soft Brexit?I am not going
0:08:02 > 0:08:08to comment on what Nigel said. It is a piece of paper which has started
0:08:08 > 0:08:11around Whitehall, I don't know why it was leaked. But we should be
0:08:11 > 0:08:16looking at what it actually says, which is that whatever option you
0:08:16 > 0:08:20choose, which ever one they have modelled, the UK economy will grow
0:08:20 > 0:08:23less strongly than otherwise it would have done.But you yourself
0:08:23 > 0:08:26have said that the initial fears which had been warned about by
0:08:26 > 0:08:29politicians in the immediate aftermath of the referendum, I
0:08:29 > 0:08:36haven't been realised. So, how strongly can you believe that
0:08:36 > 0:08:40predictions made for 15 years' time are highly speculative?Of course
0:08:40 > 0:08:45you cannot be absolutely precise about any forecast.So should we
0:08:45 > 0:08:51take any notice of it?Hold on, there is an important point here.
0:08:51 > 0:08:54This is economists looking at all departments, so it is a much wider
0:08:54 > 0:08:59range than last time.Whichever option, the trend is clear.So,
0:08:59 > 0:09:04whatever you say about the details, the trend is clear, and that's what
0:09:04 > 0:09:08should be worrying everybody, but also the policymakers in government,
0:09:08 > 0:09:12to make sure that we get a Brexit that works for Britain.The detail
0:09:12 > 0:09:15is important here, when we're talking about whether the economy
0:09:15 > 0:09:18will grow more slowly than predicted, we are supposed to
0:09:18 > 0:09:23believe that the Treasury can accurately Vidic something 15 years
0:09:23 > 0:09:27in advance, and yet this report has already changed, so they have
0:09:27 > 0:09:32already revised down the warnings? Well, this is a new report as I
0:09:32 > 0:09:35understand it and the whole thing we should be saying now is that the
0:09:35 > 0:09:40government must now publish this so that we can actually see the detail,
0:09:40 > 0:09:44but this is a new report looking at the latest information, compiled by
0:09:44 > 0:09:49economists from as many departments as I understand that exist across
0:09:49 > 0:09:53Whitehall, and the trend is very clear, and it is a worrying trend.
0:09:53 > 0:09:57Therefore we need the government to look at an option which keeps
0:09:57 > 0:10:02Britain in a customs union.Is it not important, though, to realise,
0:10:02 > 0:10:08you say there is a clear trend, but not one of the models includes the
0:10:08 > 0:10:12one where Britain negotiates a bespoke, tailor-made deal, that
0:10:12 > 0:10:18hasn't been included, so...That is true but what HAS been modelled is a
0:10:18 > 0:10:22you of free trade deal with the EU, which presumably is what that model
0:10:22 > 0:10:28will be. And also the benefits of doing outside deals. It says that
0:10:28 > 0:10:32the economy will grow less slowly under a country hence if free trade
0:10:32 > 0:10:37deal, by 2% and the benefits of though trade deals will be 0.6%. So
0:10:37 > 0:10:43even if you take that, it doesn't look great at the moment. However,
0:10:43 > 0:10:46the government can resolve this by publishing the analysis and also
0:10:46 > 0:10:51telling people what it actually wants in its bespoke Ardal.Well,
0:10:51 > 0:10:55what do you want the government to do now on the basis of this
0:10:55 > 0:10:59information, what do you think should happen?I want the government
0:10:59 > 0:11:03to negotiate a bespoke deal, but I want to make sure that we have
0:11:03 > 0:11:06closely aligned regulator EE equivalence for the financial
0:11:06 > 0:11:11services, our biggest earner, and I want to see us in a customs union
0:11:11 > 0:11:14which allows us to trade freely with our European colleagues but also
0:11:14 > 0:11:18allows us to look at some of those relatively small but worthwhile
0:11:18 > 0:11:22benefits from outside trade deals. Do you think we are getting closer
0:11:22 > 0:11:26to a position where the public should be consulted again?I think a
0:11:26 > 0:11:30lot of the public want the government to set out its direction
0:11:30 > 0:11:34and are willing the government to get on with it and do it well.But
0:11:34 > 0:11:39do you think we're moving closer to a position where...?Lots of people
0:11:39 > 0:11:43have called for that since we have had the first referendum. I am
0:11:43 > 0:11:46certainly not calling for that. I would like the government to look at
0:11:46 > 0:11:50a comprehensive deal which keeps a Britain in a customs union and
0:11:50 > 0:11:54allows us to make sure that we're closely aligned with the EU
0:11:54 > 0:11:59regulator is system so that our services industry can continue to
0:11:59 > 0:12:01prosper.People out there heard the doom and gloom which was given them
0:12:01 > 0:12:05in the run-up to the referendum and they still voted to leave in
0:12:05 > 0:12:09defiance of all those warnings and the forecasts - do you think this
0:12:09 > 0:12:13will change their minds?People out there were told there was going to
0:12:13 > 0:12:17be £330 million for the NHS in week and that clearly wasn't right,
0:12:17 > 0:12:21either. And so I think a lot of people voted on that basis.Do you
0:12:21 > 0:12:26agree with Anna Soubry that Theresa May needs to get a grip of the arch
0:12:26 > 0:12:30Eurosceptics in your party?Well, I think where she is right is that it
0:12:30 > 0:12:33would be helpful for the government to set out its position so that
0:12:33 > 0:12:36everybody can be clear what its position is, and I hope that
0:12:36 > 0:12:39position will be that the government rejects a hard You're watching
0:12:39 > 0:12:43Breakfast from the BBC. And opt for one which is in the economic
0:12:43 > 0:12:47posterity of this country.Do you have faith in Theresa May to
0:12:47 > 0:12:51negotiate the best deal?I am clear that Mrs May has the option to do so
0:12:51 > 0:12:55and will do so. And I and clear that that should the a customs union
0:12:55 > 0:13:01closely regulated, with close regulatory equivalents so that we
0:13:01 > 0:13:05can get the best economic outcome for the people. We want people to
0:13:05 > 0:13:09have secure jobs post-Brexit, an opportunity of a good future and a
0:13:09 > 0:13:13better Britain.You don't sound convinced that Theresa May is the
0:13:13 > 0:13:17best equipped to negotiate what will be a very difficult trade deal with
0:13:17 > 0:13:22the EU?I think that was a prescriptive question, I think I was
0:13:22 > 0:13:28pretty unequivocal, frankly.So she's got your full support?I want
0:13:28 > 0:13:31the Prime Minister Sir succeed.And should she named her departure date
0:13:31 > 0:13:35to unify the party?Only if she judges that unify the party.And
0:13:35 > 0:13:40what do you think?Well, I think there has been a lot of speculation
0:13:40 > 0:13:42about that, I think the Prime Minister may wish to make her
0:13:42 > 0:13:44intentions clear.
0:13:44 > 0:13:46Conservative MP and leading Eurosceptic Bernard
0:13:46 > 0:13:49Jenkin is with me now.
0:13:49 > 0:13:52It looks like the government has been sitting on this report, and you
0:13:52 > 0:13:57can see why, it is fairly damning in every respect as far as the economy
0:13:57 > 0:14:03is concerned, for Brexit?I mean, we have been here before. To some
0:14:03 > 0:14:08extent, I don't entirely blame the BBC for this, but government
0:14:08 > 0:14:12economists think Brexit is bad for Britain... It is not exactly a very
0:14:12 > 0:14:16big story, is it and they were wrong, as you pointed out in your
0:14:16 > 0:14:22interview with Stephen, completely wrong. We didn't lose 800,000 jobs,
0:14:22 > 0:14:27we more or less created 800,000 jobs since the voter! The trend has been
0:14:27 > 0:14:32in completely the opposite direction. Yes, the economy has
0:14:32 > 0:14:35slowed a bit but that was after a long and sustained period of
0:14:35 > 0:14:40economic growth, when the IMF, for example, was saying that George
0:14:40 > 0:14:43Osborne's policies were going to damage a chronic growth. These
0:14:43 > 0:14:50economists are very often wrong. The government factor in changes in
0:14:50 > 0:14:53their economic model but they do not factor in policy responses and
0:14:53 > 0:14:57things the government might do to mitigate against those things. And
0:14:57 > 0:15:01finally I would point out that the government's policy is not reflected
0:15:01 > 0:15:08in any of these forecasts.
0:15:08 > 0:15:11Just because they forecast were wrong in your mind in the referendum
0:15:11 > 0:15:16campaign does not mean that these ones are. It doesn't automatically
0:15:16 > 0:15:21follow, does it?I can't absolutely prove that but on the basis of the
0:15:21 > 0:15:24364 legendary economists who attacked Margaret Thatcher's
0:15:24 > 0:15:28economic policy in the 1980s, they proved to be wrong and the Treasury
0:15:28 > 0:15:33at that time was very, very scared of Margaret Thatcher's policy. All
0:15:33 > 0:15:36the advice the government got about what would happen to the economy if
0:15:36 > 0:15:41we didn't join the euro, they were proved wrong. The British
0:15:41 > 0:15:47establishment has always had a pro-EU policy. They always tried to
0:15:47 > 0:15:53prove the point by producing economic forecasts.What do you say
0:15:53 > 0:15:56about that?The message this will be bad for the economy has been very
0:15:56 > 0:16:00consistent so prior to the referendum in April 2016, there was
0:16:00 > 0:16:04forecasts that were the same as these forecasts now so I'm not
0:16:04 > 0:16:09convinced this is hugely newsworthy in that sense. Also if you look at
0:16:09 > 0:16:13what the leader vote said, 12,000 leave voters on the day of the
0:16:13 > 0:16:19referendum, and just 6% thought there would be better economic
0:16:19 > 0:16:23prospects outside the EU. Where I think Bernard is one is to somehow
0:16:23 > 0:16:28claim that putting up barriers between us and our largest trading
0:16:28 > 0:16:31partner but not only doing that but also the EU has 50 trade deals
0:16:31 > 0:16:35around the world and that's how we access those markets, that somehow
0:16:35 > 0:16:39that will be good for the economy and what the consensus is amongst
0:16:39 > 0:16:42all economists pretty much with the exception of a small number is this
0:16:42 > 0:16:47isn't going to be good for the British economy. It's a perfectly
0:16:47 > 0:16:49respectable position to say it's not going to be good for the economy but
0:16:49 > 0:16:52there are other reasons to vote Leave, but you can't sustain the
0:16:52 > 0:16:58position that somehow leaving the EU is in our economic interests. Other
0:16:58 > 0:17:03arguments are more important in that, but it's hard to sustain that.
0:17:03 > 0:17:07On the economic argument, Brexit does not present a convincing case?
0:17:07 > 0:17:12People who are against leaving the EU constantly a tribute to us things
0:17:12 > 0:17:17we haven't set. We don't want to put up a unnecessary barriers to trade
0:17:17 > 0:17:21with the EU. That is not what the government wants, what anyone who
0:17:21 > 0:17:25supported leave once, and if there are barriers between trade it's
0:17:25 > 0:17:29because they will be erected by the EU. That could be a consequence of
0:17:29 > 0:17:32us leaving but, yes, you are right, in the end, people voted because
0:17:32 > 0:17:40they wanted to take back control. Can I pick you up on that?We are
0:17:40 > 0:17:43perfectly capable of taking back control of our own destiny and make
0:17:43 > 0:17:47the most of our economic opportunities and, personally, I
0:17:47 > 0:17:52have complete confidence in the future.Even when Liam Fox, your
0:17:52 > 0:17:56colleague, who was broadly on the same side as you, and a scoping out
0:17:56 > 0:18:02free trade deals once we leave, the European Union, has said you have to
0:18:02 > 0:18:06prepare for disappointment because you're not going to get...He said
0:18:06 > 0:18:09he was talking about something else. I don't know what he really means by
0:18:09 > 0:18:16that. He hasn't made a speech or a big pronouncement.Do you think he
0:18:16 > 0:18:21would be wrong? Are you worried about this idea of accepting a
0:18:21 > 0:18:25softer Brexit?I have no idea what you meant by that. I think he was
0:18:25 > 0:18:29misinterpreted. Let him come on the television and say leaving the EU
0:18:29 > 0:18:33will be bad for the economy. I don't think he will say that.I have not
0:18:33 > 0:18:38said that. What he did say reportedly is you need to prepare
0:18:38 > 0:18:42yourselves for a disappointment and have to accept a softer Brexit.What
0:18:42 > 0:18:46he may have been talking about is we have to accept there will be a
0:18:46 > 0:18:52protracted rather unpleasant transition period. When we will have
0:18:52 > 0:19:00to accept quite a lot of unpalatable restrictions on what we can do.Will
0:19:00 > 0:19:06you accept it?As long as we get out at the end of it, full regulatory
0:19:06 > 0:19:09autonomy, the ability to do trade deals with other countries, I think
0:19:09 > 0:19:13at the end we'll be in the possible position because we don't want to
0:19:13 > 0:19:18poke two fingers in the eyes of the European Union. We want to leave on
0:19:18 > 0:19:22amicable terms and on terms where there is cooperation.So you will
0:19:22 > 0:19:27accept their negotiating position of Britain having to abide by new rules
0:19:27 > 0:19:33during the transition period and no input in the decision?I support the
0:19:33 > 0:19:37Prime Minister unambiguously than Stephen Hammond. He wants to be in a
0:19:37 > 0:19:43customs union will become at the EU and to be in a customs union is
0:19:43 > 0:19:46frankly dissension without a different and I agree with the Prime
0:19:46 > 0:19:49Minister who has rejected the government's EU guidelines produced
0:19:49 > 0:19:55yesterday and does not want to be unambiguously unqualified will take
0:19:55 > 0:19:59during that British transition period and does not want to have
0:19:59 > 0:20:04free movement of people during the transition period. She has rejected
0:20:04 > 0:20:08what the EU offered yesterday and that much bigger story than this
0:20:08 > 0:20:13nonstory about what the economists think.Do you think it should all be
0:20:13 > 0:20:18published if you think it's a nonstory?Of course because then we
0:20:18 > 0:20:21can see what methodology they used. This is what the government did not
0:20:21 > 0:20:25due during the referendum with George Cameron. They did not produce
0:20:25 > 0:20:31the referendum methodology and we had to dig them out and we found out
0:20:31 > 0:20:36they used a gravity economic model which led to a jaundiced forecast
0:20:36 > 0:20:40because there seemed no policy response. It's a matter of economic
0:20:40 > 0:20:45debate that we can have as to whether this is going to be negative
0:20:45 > 0:20:49for the British people.Why hasn't the government published it? Do you
0:20:49 > 0:20:53think this has been leaked in terms of a dirty tricks campaign?I don't
0:20:53 > 0:20:58think the government had any intention of publishing it. I
0:20:58 > 0:21:04believe official, Minister, leaked it to try to carry on the fear
0:21:04 > 0:21:09campaign. Much of the government seems to be still promoting the fear
0:21:09 > 0:21:14campaign which of course didn't win the referendum for the very reasons
0:21:14 > 0:21:17just described, because people were thinking about democratic and
0:21:17 > 0:21:21constitutional factors as well as economic factors.Is there a drift
0:21:21 > 0:21:28towards a softer Brexit? Not from the Prime Minister. Generally?I
0:21:28 > 0:21:32think there are people in the government of the exchequer as we
0:21:32 > 0:21:35said last week, who are trying to blow government policy in a
0:21:35 > 0:21:40different direction. It's a terrible difficulty the Prime Minister is
0:21:40 > 0:21:45having. Coming back to where the Conservative Party sits on this, the
0:21:45 > 0:21:51vast majority of Conservative MPs like the vast majority of people in
0:21:51 > 0:21:54business in this country, want us to get on with us, want to reduce the
0:21:54 > 0:22:00period of uncertainty as possible and get on with availing ourselves
0:22:00 > 0:22:03of the opportunities. They don't want this dragged out year after
0:22:03 > 0:22:09year after year.There is no majority in parliament for a Brexit
0:22:09 > 0:22:15at any cost, a ultra hard Brexit. That is the problem Bernard has.
0:22:15 > 0:22:17There's no position like that. The Conservative Party does not have a
0:22:17 > 0:22:22majority that is strong enough to push through any particular single
0:22:22 > 0:22:26position. You can see the imparting of people and say we must compromise
0:22:26 > 0:22:29and those people who say no compromise and there's not much of a
0:22:29 > 0:22:35compromise between no comp demise and economise.What will keep the
0:22:35 > 0:22:38Conservative Party in office is broader unity in the Conservative
0:22:38 > 0:22:42Party. There are far more people more broadly sympathetic to my view
0:22:42 > 0:22:46in the Conservative Party.But you have been attacking Philip Hammond
0:22:46 > 0:22:51and that does not help you either. The problem the Prime Minister made
0:22:51 > 0:22:55for herself somewhat as a majority of people in the Cabinet she doesn't
0:22:55 > 0:22:59have a majority for her policy in her Cabinet. And I think that is
0:22:59 > 0:23:05making life difficult.You just point that the divisions in the
0:23:05 > 0:23:08Conservative Party. It slightly surreal.The balance in the Cabinet
0:23:08 > 0:23:12does not reflect the party.Wended Philip Hammond say he did not want
0:23:12 > 0:23:19to leave the customs union?Let's not get over this game but he
0:23:19 > 0:23:22praised the speech of the CBI which was arguing we should remain in a
0:23:22 > 0:23:28customs union. Stephen Hammond just said he is promoting that policy.
0:23:28 > 0:23:32That is not the policy of the government, not the policy of the
0:23:32 > 0:23:35prime and as a. The Prime Minister has never hinted we will be in a
0:23:35 > 0:23:38customs union after we have finally gone through it.Do you think that
0:23:38 > 0:23:46could be the end result though? Before Christmas, we should be in
0:23:46 > 0:23:49the regular to presume to the single market was published, and that has
0:23:49 > 0:23:56been adopted by the CBI, and...They are split.I think that is where we
0:23:56 > 0:24:01will land if you want to honour the referendum result whilst also secure
0:24:01 > 0:24:06and economic picture.What will you do if that happens?It's interesting
0:24:06 > 0:24:09when Jeremy Hunt wrote an article just after the referendum, he made
0:24:09 > 0:24:15it clear if we finish up in something like this Norway model,
0:24:15 > 0:24:21then there would have to be another referendum.Do you agree?If the
0:24:21 > 0:24:24government is going to reverse the substantive decision taken by the
0:24:24 > 0:24:27British people that we would leave the European Union, leave the single
0:24:27 > 0:24:31market, the customs union, all the policies the government set out in
0:24:31 > 0:24:35the Lancaster house speech, the policies, the manifesto, if we have
0:24:35 > 0:24:41to reverse all that, it will cause some ructions, some serious
0:24:41 > 0:24:45disturbance and just bear this in mind. One thing we have seen is
0:24:45 > 0:24:49basically Ukip is destroyed. The referendum has decided this matter.
0:24:49 > 0:24:54If the government, the establishment starts dragging this back to some
0:24:54 > 0:25:00half in, half out watched Brexit, there will be a very unhappy
0:25:00 > 0:25:04political situation in this country. The end of the Conservative Party?
0:25:04 > 0:25:08The vast majority of them are aligned with the British people and
0:25:08 > 0:25:12I believe the majority of the real business people, not these sort
0:25:12 > 0:25:19of...Are you saying it will end the Conservative Party in government?
0:25:19 > 0:25:26This is existential stuff. For political parties. It's certainly
0:25:26 > 0:25:30the divisions in the Labour Party just as serious as the Conservative
0:25:30 > 0:25:34Party. When you say there's no majority in the House of Commons for
0:25:34 > 0:25:37what you call a hard Brexit, honouring the result of the
0:25:37 > 0:25:41referendum, actually there was no majority in parliament before the
0:25:41 > 0:25:45referendum for leaving the EU at all. Is that the opinion reflected
0:25:45 > 0:25:49in what the outcome is? I think the Conservative Party reflects public
0:25:49 > 0:25:52opinion and the vast majority is united about that and I think we
0:25:52 > 0:25:56will produce a majority in parliament and increment it.Bernard
0:25:56 > 0:25:57Jenkin, thank you.
0:25:57 > 0:25:59Whilst all this is going on, the European Withdrawal Bill
0:25:59 > 0:26:02has its second reading in the Lords today and tomorrow.
0:26:02 > 0:26:04It's going to be a busy couple of days, with around 200
0:26:04 > 0:26:06Lords scheduled to speak.
0:26:06 > 0:26:08Many Brexit supporters have expressed concerns that the Lords,
0:26:08 > 0:26:10which is packed full of pro-EU peers, could try
0:26:10 > 0:26:12to scupper the bill.
0:26:12 > 0:26:14The session started just over an hour ago.
0:26:14 > 0:26:17Here's a flavour of what's been said so far.
0:26:17 > 0:26:19My Lords, this bill is not about revisiting
0:26:19 > 0:26:22the arguments of the referendum.
0:26:22 > 0:26:24It is not about our future relationship with the EU.
0:26:24 > 0:26:27Nor is it a vehicle for policy change.
0:26:27 > 0:26:31It is only part of the programme of legislation required to honour
0:26:31 > 0:26:36the referendum result.
0:26:36 > 0:26:39Just as the first say on Brexit was given to the people,
0:26:39 > 0:26:42so the final say should rest with the people once
0:26:42 > 0:26:47they see the terms proposed by the government.
0:26:47 > 0:26:49Our constitutional role, my Lords, is to ensure,
0:26:49 > 0:26:55with the House of Commons, that the people have the final say.
0:26:55 > 0:27:00At a time when the country really needs strong and stable government
0:27:00 > 0:27:04we have instead consistent and persistent reports of a weak
0:27:04 > 0:27:08Prime Minister buffeted from one position to another as she tries
0:27:08 > 0:27:13to bring order to warring factions in her Cabinet.
0:27:13 > 0:27:15I'm joined from Central Lobby by Baroness Smith, who's the Labour
0:27:15 > 0:27:17leader in the Lords, and by the Conservative
0:27:17 > 0:27:24Peer Lord Forsyth.
0:27:24 > 0:27:28Welcome to both of you. Michael, is the bill as it currently stands
0:27:28 > 0:27:31constitutionally unacceptable as a committee of your colleagues has
0:27:31 > 0:27:36warned?If you read the rest of the sentence in that excellent report
0:27:36 > 0:27:41from the constitutional committee, it says it is capable of, necessary
0:27:41 > 0:27:45of being amended, to be effective and I'm sure that's what the House
0:27:45 > 0:27:49of Lords will do and we got off to a very good start this morning with
0:27:49 > 0:27:53both speeches from both frontbenchers indicating we are
0:27:53 > 0:27:57determined not to delay or defeat Brexit, but actually to make sure
0:27:57 > 0:28:03the bill, which is about bringing European legislation into our
0:28:03 > 0:28:06domestic law, was consistent with our constitutional requirements and
0:28:06 > 0:28:11able to be done effectively. I have to say, there's a lot to be done.
0:28:11 > 0:28:15Angela Smith, what changes do you want to see made in the Lords?Quite
0:28:15 > 0:28:20significant changes from all sides, basically this transitional
0:28:20 > 0:28:24arrangement that it sorted out, this issue of devolution of the
0:28:24 > 0:28:26government taking powers which should rightly be going back to
0:28:26 > 0:28:31Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales. Won the theme which runs
0:28:31 > 0:28:36through this legislation across the house, it's what known as Henry VIII
0:28:36 > 0:28:39powers, and that means if we are taking these laws back into the UK,
0:28:39 > 0:28:46they should be under parliament not lost at the whim of a ministerial
0:28:46 > 0:28:50pen. It's the constitutional issues. For most people, this bill is will
0:28:50 > 0:28:54he boring, it's not about Brexit and whether it happens but how we bring
0:28:54 > 0:29:01those laws we have contributed to in the last 40 years, back into UK law
0:29:01 > 0:29:05for the it's quite technical to get this right.There is a principal at
0:29:05 > 0:29:09the heart of this about how much power the executive should have and
0:29:09 > 0:29:13Michael Forsyth, your colleagues say tackling the controversial Henry
0:29:13 > 0:29:16VIII powers clause, this is not a country with the executive is
0:29:16 > 0:29:20allowed to take decisions and overwrite Parliamentary scrutiny, at
0:29:20 > 0:29:24the moment, is that the case?You have to laugh at the irony that
0:29:24 > 0:29:29position because of the moment these powers exercised by unelected
0:29:29 > 0:29:32commissioners in Europe. What we are doing is moving from a situation
0:29:32 > 0:29:36where the regulation which covers this country over which parliament
0:29:36 > 0:29:40does not have a view, to one where parliament will be able to decide
0:29:40 > 0:29:44these matters and that is quite a tricky thing to do because we are
0:29:44 > 0:29:48having to take regulations which perhaps are not in statute or made
0:29:48 > 0:29:52at a European level and translate them into domestic legislation and
0:29:52 > 0:29:56after this bill is being passed, it will be possible once again for
0:29:56 > 0:30:02Parliament to decide every matter which affects our people.Isn't that
0:30:02 > 0:30:06the point, Angela Smith?The point is we have contributed to these
0:30:06 > 0:30:10laws. It's not just done by Europe but there's been British involvement
0:30:10 > 0:30:14and we've welcomed it. Quite often we been the driver of environmental
0:30:14 > 0:30:17legislation and the likes of people at work, but Michael is absolutely
0:30:17 > 0:30:22right that if you bring it back into UK law, is as we intend to do, what
0:30:22 > 0:30:25you can't do then is set up to ministers at a whim to change them.
0:30:25 > 0:30:28It has to be a matter of Parliament and if things are to improve as
0:30:28 > 0:30:33Michael has said, it has to be parliament who decide not just
0:30:33 > 0:30:37individuals. I think this agreement across the house about that about
0:30:37 > 0:30:40why you will see significant changes in the Bill in the laws that were
0:30:40 > 0:30:45resisted in the Commons but across all parties and then in the House of
0:30:45 > 0:30:47Lords, recognised that our constitutional principles are at
0:30:47 > 0:30:51stake here.
0:30:51 > 0:30:59Angela Smith said this was not really about Brexit but actually,
0:30:59 > 0:31:03the Labour Lord Andrew Adonis has said that he intends to sabotage
0:31:03 > 0:31:07exit - what do you say to that, Michael Forsyth?I think he should
0:31:07 > 0:31:11look to his position. We are not elected, the House of Commons has
0:31:11 > 0:31:17got to have the final say. He moved an amendment which provided for a
0:31:17 > 0:31:20second referendum. The House of Lords considered that a year ago and
0:31:20 > 0:31:25it was defeated by a majority of 200. We recognise that the House of
0:31:25 > 0:31:29Lords is there to tidy up the mess which is left often by the House of
0:31:29 > 0:31:32Commons in legislation, and in this case there are serious matters
0:31:32 > 0:31:35regarding the Henry VIII powers and I hope the government will listen
0:31:35 > 0:31:39and I hope that the bill will be amended and we'll go back to the
0:31:39 > 0:31:42House of Commons and the House of Commons will take cognizance of
0:31:42 > 0:31:46quite good advice, but there is no appetite on the House of Lords on
0:31:46 > 0:31:50either side to challenge Brexit or to challenge the authority of the
0:31:50 > 0:31:53House of Commons, which is the elected house.How far is Labour
0:31:53 > 0:31:59prepared to go on the basis of what Andrew Adonis has said?Actually
0:31:59 > 0:32:04this bill belay you voted against it all it would harm is the protections
0:32:04 > 0:32:07that we have gained through Europe over a number of years. What we want
0:32:07 > 0:32:11to see is a bill which is fit for purpose and which puts those
0:32:11 > 0:32:17sections which we have fought for properly into UK law, but in the
0:32:17 > 0:32:20future Parliament must decide, not just a minister. I predict we will
0:32:20 > 0:32:26see significant amendments and also support from all parties in the
0:32:26 > 0:32:31House of Lords and significant majorities.The report today,
0:32:31 > 0:32:34busting the Brexit myth, which calls for the Labour leadership to get off
0:32:34 > 0:32:38the fence on Brexit - do you think that's what they should do?I don't
0:32:38 > 0:32:43think they're on the fence on Brexit. We are not in charge of the
0:32:43 > 0:32:48negotiations, Theresa May is. But one of the great games is that
0:32:48 > 0:32:51Theresa May has ruled out the single market and Customs union before she
0:32:51 > 0:32:56even starts negotiations. We have to recognise that if the position is
0:32:56 > 0:33:01taken to come out of the EU, and coming out of the customs union and
0:33:01 > 0:33:06single market, but we then will have to negotiate, and these are issues
0:33:06 > 0:33:10which have served us very well in this country, so I would like to
0:33:10 > 0:33:16renegotiate a position, certainly as close as we can. But in the
0:33:16 > 0:33:20transition period we're saying that we must have the same basic terms as
0:33:20 > 0:33:24now, remaining in the customs union and single market.Michael Forsyth,
0:33:24 > 0:33:27you do not agree with that and you said to the Prime Minister that she
0:33:27 > 0:33:31needs to get a grip on her Cabinet - is the party falling apart on
0:33:31 > 0:33:35Europe?I don't think, so the on the issue of the customs union and the
0:33:35 > 0:33:40single market, the House of Commons voted on Mary SNP amendment by a
0:33:40 > 0:33:45majority of more than 200 against the proposal that we should remain
0:33:45 > 0:33:49in both, so the House of Commons has given a clear view, as has the
0:33:49 > 0:33:53people in the referendum. And it is for both Houses of Parliament to
0:33:53 > 0:33:56reflect that and for the Cabinet to get behind the Prime Minister to
0:33:56 > 0:34:01deliver what the people voted for. But these are still negotiations we
0:34:01 > 0:34:05are having about the future relationship with the EU 27. What I
0:34:05 > 0:34:09find astounding is the thing which has not been mentioned is the
0:34:09 > 0:34:13honesty of the debate. Today we have heard about the impact analysis
0:34:13 > 0:34:17which has been done by the government which they're keeping
0:34:17 > 0:34:21from the public and from Parliament. Decisions have to be made on our
0:34:21 > 0:34:25future relationship and they should be made on the basis of the facts.
0:34:25 > 0:34:30Should they be published, Michael Forsyth?I have got the Governor of
0:34:30 > 0:34:33the Bank of England coming to my committee this afternoon and I am
0:34:33 > 0:34:37going to ask him about these projections as to what is going to
0:34:37 > 0:34:40happen to the economy, which have proved to be completely wrong. I
0:34:40 > 0:34:44think we need to look at our forecasting models in this country,
0:34:44 > 0:34:48because I think they're destroying the credibility of the Treasury and
0:34:48 > 0:34:54also of the Bank of England.Thank you to both of you.
0:34:55 > 0:34:58Hardly a day goes by without calls for more money to go
0:34:58 > 0:35:00into the NHS, but is just extra funding the answer?
0:35:00 > 0:35:04Lord Darzi, one of the country's top surgeons who also served as a health
0:35:04 > 0:35:06minister under the last Labour government, argues that much more
0:35:06 > 0:35:08reform is needed to ensure the NHS stays relevent.
0:35:08 > 0:35:11He's started a review into what needs to be done
0:35:11 > 0:35:13for Tom's think tank, the IPPR, and before that,
0:35:13 > 0:35:16Professor Darzi has spoken to us about why there's such an urgent
0:35:25 > 0:35:29All political parties declare their affection for the NHS
0:35:29 > 0:35:31and promise to protect it.
0:35:31 > 0:35:35There is a strong cross-party consensus in favour of retaining
0:35:35 > 0:35:41a health service that is based on need and not the ability to pay.
0:35:41 > 0:35:48Yet enormous questions remain about how we deliver
0:35:48 > 0:35:51this in years to come.
0:35:51 > 0:35:53How do we make sure every patient gets high quality
0:35:53 > 0:35:55care when they need it?
0:35:55 > 0:36:00How do we join up care around the patient and keep them out
0:36:00 > 0:36:03of hospitals like this one for as long as possible?
0:36:03 > 0:36:05How will we keep up with advances in technologies,
0:36:05 > 0:36:08in therapies and in treatments?
0:36:08 > 0:36:11And how will we fund a health and care system
0:36:11 > 0:36:15in a sustainable way in the future?
0:36:15 > 0:36:17Philip Hammond, the Chancellor, rightly put more money
0:36:17 > 0:36:20into the NHS in his budget.
0:36:20 > 0:36:24But the service has still endured the most austere decade
0:36:24 > 0:36:29in its history while funding for social care has declined
0:36:29 > 0:36:34almost every year since the start of the decade.
0:36:34 > 0:36:36As a result, we are seeing signs of a system under
0:36:36 > 0:36:38strain all around us.
0:36:38 > 0:36:41Patients left in corridors.
0:36:41 > 0:36:44Operations cancelled and a deficit on the rise.
0:36:44 > 0:36:47Simply demanding more for less or promising more money
0:36:47 > 0:36:53without a plan for better care, isn't good enough.
0:36:53 > 0:36:56The real reasons why change in the NHS is so necessary
0:36:56 > 0:36:59is poorly understood.
0:36:59 > 0:37:01The health service doesn't need to change just
0:37:01 > 0:37:05because politicians say so.
0:37:05 > 0:37:08It needs to change because the nature of disease burden has
0:37:08 > 0:37:11changed because scientific breakthroughs and new technologies
0:37:11 > 0:37:16allow us to deliver more efficient and effective care.
0:37:16 > 0:37:19In short, high-quality care is a constantly moving target.
0:37:19 > 0:37:22To stand still is to fall back.
0:37:22 > 0:37:24This year, the NHS turns 70.
0:37:24 > 0:37:29It is a vital friend to millions.
0:37:29 > 0:37:33It's there for us at our greatest moment of need but I want to see it
0:37:33 > 0:37:36not just survive but thrive.
0:37:36 > 0:37:40After all, the NHS deserves a secure future that gives us confidence it
0:37:40 > 0:37:44will celebrate its centenary in 30 years from now.
0:37:44 > 0:37:52Listening to that was the Conservative MP Helen Whately,
0:37:53 > 0:37:56who used to sit on the Health Select committee and has previously worked
0:37:56 > 0:37:58in the health sector,
0:37:58 > 0:38:02and Unite's Assistant General SecretaryGail Cartmail.
0:38:02 > 0:38:08Art any of the parties in your mind ambitious enough with their plans to
0:38:08 > 0:38:12reform and fund the NHS?Well, we need to have a combination of both
0:38:12 > 0:38:17more money put into the NHS but then a plan of what to do with it. And at
0:38:17 > 0:38:21the moment none of the parties have put both of those pieces together.
0:38:21 > 0:38:25What are you suggesting in terms of major and radical reform affect the
0:38:25 > 0:38:29extra funding?First off, we think we need a long-term funding
0:38:29 > 0:38:33settlement for the Health Service. Like Jeremy Hunt suggested?Well,
0:38:33 > 0:38:36he's raised the question, there hasn't been a commit them to,
0:38:36 > 0:38:40actually. First of all, what is the long-term settlement hammered but
0:38:40 > 0:38:44then a plan to spend the money in the right way. One thing which is
0:38:44 > 0:38:47clear is that spending the money on the NHS without properly investing
0:38:47 > 0:38:51in social care isn't going to solve the problems of the Health Service
0:38:51 > 0:38:55by itself. And we also need to understand how to make sense of a
0:38:55 > 0:38:59system which has becoming credibly fragmented. The reforms of recent
0:38:59 > 0:39:03years since 2012 have broken up the NHS into such a small pieces that
0:39:03 > 0:39:08it's very, very, very hard for patients to navigate it, for doctors
0:39:08 > 0:39:10to get to know which other professionals they should be talking
0:39:10 > 0:39:14to, and we need to make sense of a system which has become really quite
0:39:14 > 0:39:20out.But that is quite a long-term review and it has gone through a
0:39:20 > 0:39:24top-down reorganisation, the NHS, does it really need another one?I
0:39:24 > 0:39:28think it needs some of the problems in the current system to be fixed.
0:39:28 > 0:39:32The idea that you can simply say, we had a bad set of reforms, but they
0:39:32 > 0:39:38now need to endure for ever, doesn't make any sense. I think everybody in
0:39:38 > 0:39:40the Health Service agrees that this is something which needs to be done
0:39:40 > 0:39:43as pass it has become far too complicated for both patients
0:39:43 > 0:39:49professionals.Helen, last week, Theresa May declined to act on a
0:39:49 > 0:39:54cross-party letter signed by 90 MPs, many of them Conservatives, calling
0:39:54 > 0:39:59for more collaboration on the future of the NHS and social care - does
0:39:59 > 0:40:02she lacked ambition?I think she has ambition for the NHS, I think the
0:40:02 > 0:40:07Conservative government as a whole does, the problem with these cause
0:40:07 > 0:40:10for something like a royal commission is that it risks kicking
0:40:10 > 0:40:15it into the long grass, when actually this is a problem we have
0:40:15 > 0:40:18to address here and now, to make sure we have a sustainable health
0:40:18 > 0:40:22care system and particularly the social care challenge, which I think
0:40:22 > 0:40:26is really, really important, to work out as a country the way that we
0:40:26 > 0:40:30fund social care and we achieve the coming together of health and social
0:40:30 > 0:40:33care so that it operates more like one system and so you don't have
0:40:33 > 0:40:38that awful situation which I have had with relatives where you end up
0:40:38 > 0:40:40with them spending weeks if not months in hospital when they would
0:40:40 > 0:40:46be much better off it at home in a care home, wherever they were living
0:40:46 > 0:40:52before, instead of in hospital for weeks.Right now the only plan there
0:40:52 > 0:40:55is is to, through without a plan, and that isn't good enough. What
0:40:55 > 0:40:59wasn't mentioned in your package is that Lord Darzi is working with
0:40:59 > 0:41:05David prior, recently Minister of State for health under the current
0:41:05 > 0:41:08government, and Norman Lamb from the Liberal Democrats, and the report
0:41:08 > 0:41:12which is guide to be done by June. So actually an interim report on
0:41:12 > 0:41:16funding in March to come up with a plan on long-term funding and a
0:41:16 > 0:41:20reform than in time for the 70th anniversary, I don't think that is
0:41:20 > 0:41:24kicking it into the long grass.Is it just about money?I don't think
0:41:24 > 0:41:28so, I think there is a lack of confidence in the NHS workforce,
0:41:28 > 0:41:35that really anybody has a plan. They have had a real terms pay cut of 20%
0:41:35 > 0:41:40since 2010, the NHS has the least funding that it has ever had since
0:41:40 > 0:41:462010, 1% per year, compared with 4% average. And morale is absolutely
0:41:46 > 0:41:50rock bottom. So, we need some building blocks. One building block
0:41:50 > 0:41:53needs to be good funding, adequate funding, but another building block
0:41:53 > 0:42:00should be bringing social care into health, not more health into social
0:42:00 > 0:42:06care. Councils across the country have suffered 40% cuts and at the
0:42:06 > 0:42:11same time public health has been put into their domain, meaning that
0:42:11 > 0:42:16health visitors, much-needed health visitors, are being cut. District
0:42:16 > 0:42:22nurses in some areas are being cut. So, we need strong foundations, good
0:42:22 > 0:42:25building blocks, adequate funding, but importantly, consultation.
0:42:25 > 0:42:30Consultation with the staff, the clinicians, the people who keep our
0:42:30 > 0:42:33hospitals and community services running, and consultation with the
0:42:33 > 0:42:38community, because at the moment, 43% of all clinical contracts last
0:42:38 > 0:42:42year went into the private sector, and commercial confidentiality cuts
0:42:42 > 0:42:46out staff consultation about whether that's the right thing for patients
0:42:46 > 0:42:50and clients.Let's go back to your first point about councils being
0:42:50 > 0:42:53stripped of so much of the cash which would have gone into social
0:42:53 > 0:42:58care - was this a mistake?I looked into this with Kent County Council
0:42:58 > 0:43:01and actually since 2010 they have been putting more money into social
0:43:01 > 0:43:07care. So, overall the budgets for local authorities have been squeezed
0:43:07 > 0:43:09suddenly individual authorities have prioritised social care and actually
0:43:09 > 0:43:12increased the funding. They have also increased the number of health
0:43:12 > 0:43:18visitors. So, some of this is the priorities councils are making.The
0:43:18 > 0:43:23figures nationally are a 27% cut in social care at a time of rising
0:43:23 > 0:43:26demand. If Kent has bucked that trend I would love to hear more
0:43:26 > 0:43:32about it. But suddenly the national trend is a 27% cut in social care. I
0:43:32 > 0:43:36don't think you can sustain that position, Helen, much as I wish you
0:43:36 > 0:43:42could. But we have had really brutal cuts to social care and you can't
0:43:42 > 0:43:46fix the problems of the NHS without fixing social care. The reason for
0:43:46 > 0:43:51that is that at any moment now in the NHS, 30% of patients in hospital
0:43:51 > 0:43:55right now are medically fit to go home but they don't have the social
0:43:55 > 0:44:00care packages to enable them to do so. Not fixing that problem is...I
0:44:00 > 0:44:05agree. In my own local hospital we are having this conversation about
0:44:05 > 0:44:09the 30%, bass were we able to get this right, we would have around 300
0:44:09 > 0:44:16beds available for the people...But when Theresa May raised the issue of
0:44:16 > 0:44:19social care and how it should be funded in the manifesto, she lost
0:44:19 > 0:44:25her majority?So, the proposal in the manifesto did not go down well
0:44:25 > 0:44:29and I am sorry about that but...You supported that idea?I supported as
0:44:29 > 0:44:34putting more money into social care. But the way it would be funded with
0:44:34 > 0:44:38the floor that was suggested?I think we have to look at making sure
0:44:38 > 0:44:42that the whole cost of rising health care and social care doesn't all
0:44:42 > 0:44:46come from the income tax of working age population, who we know are
0:44:46 > 0:44:50struggling compared with people of older age.Is that a radical way of
0:44:50 > 0:44:54thinking about it?There is nothing wrong with a system where everybody
0:44:54 > 0:44:58pays in and everybody gets out. The problem with social care is that
0:44:58 > 0:45:05councils are so strapped, they're paying into the care of vulnerable
0:45:05 > 0:45:10people £2 an hour. That is not sustainable. In your constituency,
0:45:10 > 0:45:15Helen, you've got care homes closing down. There is a broken model in
0:45:15 > 0:45:19adult social care. It is a business model, it is broken and we've got to
0:45:19 > 0:45:24fix it, so we need a national care service.One way of doing it is to
0:45:24 > 0:45:33ration what the NHS does - would you support some drastic rationing?
0:45:33 > 0:45:39I think the priority list of fun social care. What about paying for
0:45:39 > 0:45:43services?The NHS has already been rationed, let's be clear, so waiting
0:45:43 > 0:45:46times are a method of rationing, they are rising in the NHS, for
0:45:46 > 0:45:52planned operations, AMD, GP appointments, and all of that is a
0:45:52 > 0:45:55form of rationing, so how do you restrict the amount you spend? You
0:45:55 > 0:45:59make people wait so that's a form of rationing which is underway. There
0:45:59 > 0:46:03are other forms of rationing about access to advanced treatments,
0:46:03 > 0:46:06therapies which also happening at the same time so rationing is
0:46:06 > 0:46:12already here. And mental health services hugely.On that basis, we
0:46:12 > 0:46:14have to end up thank you both very much.
0:46:14 > 0:46:17It's not just the NHS that's under pressure for more money.
0:46:17 > 0:46:20You may remember the government set out a new National Funding formula
0:46:20 > 0:46:22for schools in England last year to try to address discrepancies
0:46:22 > 0:46:25in the amount of money schools received across the country.
0:46:25 > 0:46:26So all fine now?
0:46:26 > 0:46:27Well, no.
0:46:27 > 0:46:30A group called Worth Less, which represents thousands
0:46:30 > 0:46:33of schools across England is claming that there is a still a vast unfair
0:46:33 > 0:46:37difference between the highest and lowest funded schools.
0:46:37 > 0:46:39We can speak to head teacher and the campaign's
0:46:39 > 0:46:47organiser Jules White.
0:46:47 > 0:46:51The government insists more money is going into schools year-on-year. And
0:46:51 > 0:46:55that they are going to have a fairer formula with winners and losers. Do
0:46:55 > 0:47:01you accept that?I think there's some differences there. Over the
0:47:01 > 0:47:05past five years, the government was planning to take 3 billion out of
0:47:05 > 0:47:09schools and decided to put 1.3 billion back which have helped some
0:47:09 > 0:47:14of our budgets but it is simply, we are facing cuts right across the
0:47:14 > 0:47:18board and in terms of the National funding formula, unfortunately it
0:47:18 > 0:47:25has been put forward for April but it is full of caps and arbitrary
0:47:25 > 0:47:29increases, so it's not really being implemented in the way it should be.
0:47:29 > 0:47:33As a consequence, thousands of schools up and down the country are
0:47:33 > 0:47:36still facing a financial crisis and there are simply huge differences
0:47:36 > 0:47:40between those who have and those who have not.In terms of your school,
0:47:40 > 0:47:47will it be getting more money?Yes, we do get some money. We were raised
0:47:47 > 0:47:53from the very bottom threshold so every student in my school will rise
0:47:53 > 0:47:56to £4600 per pupil per that compares to London authorities where pupils
0:47:56 > 0:48:02are funded at over £7,000, so if you take my school, 1500 pupils, my
0:48:02 > 0:48:09budget is £6.5 million for April 2018. School of exactly the same in
0:48:09 > 0:48:17Hackney is funded at £11.2 million. £4.5 million more, and to give you
0:48:17 > 0:48:25some idea, £1 million would buy me approximately 30 teachers, 60
0:48:25 > 0:48:27teaching assisted Chilterns, countless text books and equipment,
0:48:27 > 0:48:33and my school is now struggling to survive. We want a much better deal
0:48:33 > 0:48:38for our families.In order to set a new formula, do you accept it's
0:48:38 > 0:48:41based on the need and characteristics of each individual
0:48:41 > 0:48:44school and there may be very good reasons that those London schools
0:48:44 > 0:48:50you mentioned are getting more money than your school?Absolutely, skills
0:48:50 > 0:48:53have to be funded differently according to needs and deprivation
0:48:53 > 0:48:57but as I've said, the new national funding formula is not being
0:48:57 > 0:49:01promoted like that for top London schools got a 0.5% but most schools
0:49:01 > 0:49:06across the country, even though they were lagging behind, where capita 3%
0:49:06 > 0:49:11because the government is taking money out of our system during the
0:49:11 > 0:49:16lifetime of this Parliament and the figures we are quoting all come from
0:49:16 > 0:49:19the Department for Education. I'm not making them up. Schools in an
0:49:19 > 0:49:28area like very, they are funded at £4800 per pupil. In nearby
0:49:28 > 0:49:33Manchester, it's well over £6,000 so that equates to 1200 pupils, one
0:49:33 > 0:49:38school funded a £1.5 million less. Those differences are absolutely
0:49:38 > 0:49:41huge. OK, thank you for joining us.
0:49:41 > 0:49:43With me now is shadow schools minister Mike Kane
0:49:43 > 0:49:45and Conservative MP Chris Philp.
0:49:45 > 0:49:50Listening to that, if you look at the figures, there's no real terms
0:49:50 > 0:49:54increase when you take into account rising costs of these schools and
0:49:54 > 0:50:00increased pupil numbers.Up until 2015, it was rising and there was a
0:50:00 > 0:50:08two-year period from 2015 - 17, when it went down a bit. However, from
0:50:08 > 0:50:15this April onwards, extra money is being put into... The budget is 41
0:50:15 > 0:50:21million. Next year it is 42.4 and the after 43.5, so with being
0:50:21 > 0:50:27protected and going up.You're still ignoring the fact it's not enough
0:50:27 > 0:50:31when compared with the parallel rising costs of running the schools
0:50:31 > 0:50:36and teachers wages and salaries and increased pupil numbers.If you take
0:50:36 > 0:50:41those increases I laid out and think about increase in inflation, pupils
0:50:41 > 0:50:44numbers, schools will see slight increases all be protected so that's
0:50:44 > 0:50:49being addressed going forward. It's looking at international comparisons
0:50:49 > 0:50:53because of the 32 countries, we come sixth, for education funding ahead
0:50:53 > 0:50:58of France, Germany, Japan and Australia. Those international
0:50:58 > 0:51:03comparisons are quite illuminating as well.Why are their schools
0:51:03 > 0:51:07having to make the sort of cuts that actually led to many people making
0:51:07 > 0:51:13this the issue that they voted on it in the election and it wasn't for
0:51:13 > 0:51:18the Conservatives?We recognise there was an issue here because of
0:51:18 > 0:51:24that 2015-17 period.It was a mistake, wasn't it?It will hit
0:51:24 > 0:51:26classrooms in April. What's important is not just the amount of
0:51:26 > 0:51:31money put in but the results achieved and over the last seven
0:51:31 > 0:51:34years, 1.9 million more children are in good and outstanding schools than
0:51:34 > 0:51:38seven years ago so the money is important but outcomes are important
0:51:38 > 0:51:44or so and they are very good indeed. What do you say to that? Chris
0:51:44 > 0:51:48hasn't taken into factor there's more children in the school system,
0:51:48 > 0:51:51inflation is running ahead of ordinary inflation, pension
0:51:51 > 0:51:55contributions, the apprentice ship levy, and the fact is the National
0:51:55 > 0:52:00Audit Office are telling us that this government is taking £2.7
0:52:00 > 0:52:04billion out of the system from 2015 until the end...Chris Gold has
0:52:04 > 0:52:09admitted there was a lag in funding for those two years. What do so are
0:52:09 > 0:52:14the numbers of children in better schools according to the government?
0:52:14 > 0:52:211.9 is a sadistic. Those schools were identified as coasting schools
0:52:21 > 0:52:28so they are dining out on our record. If you look at the Key stage
0:52:28 > 0:52:31two stats, the differentiation between those on free school meals
0:52:31 > 0:52:37doing well with huge inequality is going up. Phonics has gone back.
0:52:37 > 0:52:40Justine Greening and Michael Gove made these international targets
0:52:40 > 0:52:46that we compare our standards with... In 2010, let me just
0:52:46 > 0:52:52finished, we are going down in these indicators.Is that the case in
0:52:52 > 0:52:55maths, English and science?Our schools are better now than they
0:52:55 > 0:53:02were seven years ago.In what way? You need to give evidence.According
0:53:02 > 0:53:08to Ofsted, 1.9 million children has gone from 57% up to 89%. I'm proud
0:53:08 > 0:53:12to say in the last seven years the attainment gap between children from
0:53:12 > 0:53:17deprived backgrounds and average background has narrowed by 10% said
0:53:17 > 0:53:18those children from deprived backgrounds are doing better now
0:53:18 > 0:53:24than they were seven years ago. That is the measure of a compassionate
0:53:24 > 0:53:27effective education system.It depends which measures you use but
0:53:27 > 0:53:31why is it some schools in England receive 50% less money than an
0:53:31 > 0:53:37identically sized school?For historic reasons. These four minutes
0:53:37 > 0:53:42go back decades.They should have addressed this.That will come into
0:53:42 > 0:53:47force from April. It's going to migrate over a period of three years
0:53:47 > 0:53:49full it won't be like flicking a switch where everything changes in
0:53:49 > 0:53:55one year. As he said, for schools underfunded which includes secondary
0:53:55 > 0:54:00schools in Croydon, they will have their funding increased by 3% over
0:54:00 > 0:54:05three or four years until they have caught up so they deserve about a
0:54:05 > 0:54:1010-12% increase which will come in over a four year period.What are
0:54:10 > 0:54:14they supposed to do in the meantime? If you hear about that Twickenham
0:54:14 > 0:54:18slims down, parents being asked to give money to the local primary and
0:54:18 > 0:54:22secondary schools because of these budget cuts, on those two years and
0:54:22 > 0:54:25going forward until the new funding formulae is bedded down, what are
0:54:25 > 0:54:30these skills are supposed to do? That money will hit schools in two
0:54:30 > 0:54:32months so Croydon which I represent will get an above inflation
0:54:32 > 0:54:39per-pupil increase in about two months. And accelerate after that.
0:54:39 > 0:54:42What the numbers suggest is a real terms cut in education spending
0:54:42 > 0:54:49between now and 2020, the first time the schools budget has...That's not
0:54:49 > 0:54:54right.How is that expressing itself, its expressing itself in
0:54:54 > 0:54:58terms of the workforce and we have the lowest teacher tenure in the
0:54:58 > 0:55:01OECD and the international evidence shows you the best way to get the
0:55:01 > 0:55:04best results in schools is great teachers. If teachers are leaving
0:55:04 > 0:55:08the profession in droves come and be at the lowest teacher attendance in
0:55:08 > 0:55:13the OECD, we are storing up now problems for now and the future.
0:55:13 > 0:55:18Because they have a good numbers of children, since 2011, a third of
0:55:18 > 0:55:25teachers who are trained already left. UCAS have said they are 29%
0:55:25 > 0:55:28down on their recruitment figures for next September. This recruitment
0:55:28 > 0:55:35and retention disaster has only been exacerbated by this schools cuts
0:55:35 > 0:55:40programme.We have to lead it there. Thank you very much for coming in.
0:55:40 > 0:55:43He's seen off the education blob, the Remain campaign
0:55:43 > 0:55:45Five animal rights charities have criticised the move
0:55:45 > 0:55:52arguing that the squirrels are being scapegoated.
0:55:55 > 0:55:58Whilst both red and grey squirrels cause the damage,
0:55:58 > 0:56:02grey ones are more destructive because there are more
0:56:02 > 0:56:06of them and they're larger so they have a greater impact.
0:56:06 > 0:56:09Well, to discuss the proposed cull we're joined by Craig Shuttleworth
0:56:09 > 0:56:11from Bangor University.
0:56:11 > 0:56:14And by Natalia Doran from the group Urban Squirrels, which campaigns
0:56:14 > 0:56:22against what she calls the persecution of grey squirrels.
0:56:22 > 0:56:28What's wrong with culling grey squirrels? There's too many of them.
0:56:28 > 0:56:30What the animal protection organisations would like to bring to
0:56:30 > 0:56:34the discussion table is the ethical aspect of this. We're not talking
0:56:34 > 0:56:39about cutting some grass and removing benches, but scented
0:56:39 > 0:56:43beings, who feel things. Pain, pleasure, hopes, expectations, fears
0:56:43 > 0:56:48and those characteristics do not change just because an animal is not
0:56:48 > 0:56:50native. They don't change neurologically just because they
0:56:50 > 0:56:54come into conflict with the human agenda. They should be given moral
0:56:54 > 0:56:59consideration.Ie taking those things into account?Of course, the
0:56:59 > 0:57:03grey squirrels are protected under various animal welfare act. When
0:57:03 > 0:57:10they're in the wild and caught inside a live capture trap, so the
0:57:10 > 0:57:15ethics or a big part of the eradication process. But let's get
0:57:15 > 0:57:19this straight. These are highly invasive and very damaging economic
0:57:19 > 0:57:24to damaging animal, £40 million a year to the UK economy, we can't
0:57:24 > 0:57:28grow hardwoods because they strip the bark and of course they have
0:57:28 > 0:57:33decimated the Reds were a population in the UK.What do you say to that?
0:57:33 > 0:57:35There's not much going for the grey squirrel in that regard.They have a
0:57:35 > 0:57:41strange Ally, they're not known for their friendship of squirrels but
0:57:41 > 0:57:46they did conduct research into grey squirrel damage and found the damage
0:57:46 > 0:57:51to be just 5% whereas the threshold for destruction is 30% and the
0:57:51 > 0:57:58squirrel don't...Is your proposal to extend to cull them even more?
0:57:58 > 0:58:02I'm afraid our posers based in law, based on the new European directive
0:58:02 > 0:58:12which lists the great spirals -- squirrels as a threat.We must
0:58:12 > 0:58:15control established populations. You have killed thousands of these great
0:58:15 > 0:58:21schools in your times are hard become desensitised?No, I have
0:58:21 > 0:58:24worked on this for 25 years restoring the red squirrel back into
0:58:24 > 0:58:28North Wales and also working with wood landers to try to get around
0:58:28 > 0:58:32this problem of bark stripping full hugely complicated and at the moment
0:58:32 > 0:58:37were working on a non-lethal method of control, a contraceptive, and
0:58:37 > 0:58:41that would come in and be integrated with the other management we have
0:58:41 > 0:58:45but would not stop animals being cold, but would give us a non-lethal
0:58:45 > 0:58:50method of control we could use in some circumstances.Do you accept
0:58:50 > 0:58:56that?As a combo might it's great news but the whole culling process
0:58:56 > 0:58:59is predicated on the native nurse narrative which is a rational
0:58:59 > 0:59:03because it's an academic fashion. Thank you both very much.
0:59:03 > 0:59:07There's just time before we go to find out the answer to our quiz.
0:59:07 > 0:59:09The question was what has the Defence Secretary Gavin
0:59:09 > 0:59:10Williamson reportedly demanded be removed from the
0:59:10 > 0:59:11Ministry of Defence?
0:59:11 > 0:59:17The answer is EU flags.
0:59:17 > 0:59:18That's all for today.
0:59:18 > 0:59:20Thanks to our guests.
0:59:20 > 0:59:23The One O'Clock News is starting over on BBC One now.
0:59:23 > 0:59:25Andrew will be here for live coverage of Prime Minister's
0:59:25 > 0:59:26Questions tomorrow at 11.30.
0:59:26 > 0:59:29Bye bye.