:00:33. > :00:40.Hello and welcome to Dateline London. Today, we are discussing
:00:40. > :00:47.Syria, Libya and the future of NATO. And also Prince Philip at the age
:00:47. > :00:53.of 90. My guests today are Dame Ann Leslie of the Daily Mail. Atth.
:00:53. > :00:58.Abdel Bari Atwan. And Jeff McAllister, the American writer. We
:00:58. > :01:02.want to start with Syria which is torn between terror and defiance.
:01:02. > :01:06.As the regime cracks down on its own people. Even the United Nations
:01:06. > :01:13.Secretary General is not able to get President Assad to pick up the
:01:13. > :01:17.phone. Let us begin with Syria, just what is to be done. What are
:01:17. > :01:23.your thoughts on where it can go from here?
:01:23. > :01:29.It is a disaster. The situation is deteriorating week after week. On
:01:29. > :01:33.Friday we saw a bloody massacre. The regime is decided to crush the
:01:33. > :01:40.people by force. It is a bloody circle, every Friday people are
:01:40. > :01:46.calling for reforms, demonstrating, to live as a human. What they are
:01:46. > :01:52.faced with, live ammunition. Up to 100 people are killed every Friday.
:01:52. > :01:57.The following day, we have the funeral. On Saturday, army forces,
:01:57. > :02:07.tanks, open fire on those people participating in those funerals.
:02:07. > :02:12.The problem is, now, the Syrian forces are using helicopters. There
:02:12. > :02:21.are three scenarios. The first, or they've regime to reduce serious
:02:21. > :02:28.reform, which is unlikely. Second, we can have a civil war as in Libya.
:02:28. > :02:33.I think this is the most likely. The third option is to have a North
:02:33. > :02:39.Korea, at a regime which is completely isolated, using the iron
:02:39. > :02:44.fist against its own people. We do not know. It is open for all of
:02:44. > :02:48.these scenarios except reform. What is the difference between
:02:48. > :02:53.Syria and Libya when it comes to the international response?
:02:53. > :03:00.For it is a much bigger country, it is more important in terms of where
:03:00. > :03:07.it is in the Middle East. It has also got a more complicated society.
:03:07. > :03:17.Because it has Christian's, a middle-class whether women dress
:03:17. > :03:20.
:03:20. > :03:30.like us. It is not so tribal. It is trouble in the sense that the
:03:30. > :03:32.
:03:32. > :03:38.Assads are a tribe. And they belong to a set but then Shia. Assad, when
:03:38. > :03:45.he came in, he was an ophthalmologist at the Eye Hospital
:03:45. > :03:50.here. He seemed quite a sweet. When he came in after the death of his
:03:50. > :03:58.bloodthirsty dad, he started talking about reforms, this was in
:03:58. > :04:03.2003. But, blood will out. His father kept control of Syria by
:04:03. > :04:08.just slaughtering everybody who objected to him. The most famous
:04:08. > :04:16.was in Hamah where the Muslim Brotherhood group were getting a
:04:16. > :04:24.bit too uppity. And, 20,000 people were massacred. And as opposed his
:04:24. > :04:29.son is thinking, it is not going to world -- work, this reform business.
:04:29. > :04:34.I suppose the only way is to follow dad. I believe his brother is even
:04:34. > :04:38.more bloodthirsty and he is in charge of the security services.
:04:38. > :04:43.will not answer the phone to the United Nations, he is not listening
:04:43. > :04:49.to Hillary Clinton. People coming out of there are say it is about
:04:49. > :04:54.oil and why isn't the international community coming in there? That is
:04:54. > :04:58.unfair. This is a miserable situation. Do not forget the Libyan
:04:58. > :05:05.intervention is not a success. There are limits to the capacity to
:05:05. > :05:09.bomb regimes and do what you want. It may get to the stage where the
:05:09. > :05:17.international community feels it absolutely must. Unlike Dad with
:05:17. > :05:27.Hamah, this is the error of the internet. It is hard to believe for
:05:27. > :05:35.me that Syria could become a North Korea enclave. Turkey, you should
:05:35. > :05:39.hear what Recep Tayyip Erdogan is saying. As the numbers of refugees
:05:39. > :05:48.are growing too many thousands, they may even try to create an
:05:48. > :05:53.enclave inside Syria to protect refugees. I think there is too much
:05:53. > :05:58.movement for Syria to ever be sealed off. Will the Turks actually
:05:58. > :06:03.want to intervene, they have the troops and capacity. The will of
:06:03. > :06:10.the community is the question. key thing is Iran and Turkey, not
:06:10. > :06:20.Britain. We do not have the means actually. Look at NATO. It will
:06:20. > :06:22.
:06:22. > :06:28.take another few weeks, months. Syria, President Assad will fall.
:06:28. > :06:37.But with how much blood? Recep Tayyip Erdogan, he changed his
:06:37. > :06:41.speech entirely. Iran and Turkey offered two different political
:06:41. > :06:46.models for the whole Arab world. For do you think the people, a lot
:06:46. > :06:54.of these protesters then this arab spring have been very young. Is
:06:54. > :07:01.this being driven by a social networking? They do share, what is
:07:01. > :07:05.happening in the Arab world, they do share pictures. All the talk
:07:06. > :07:15.about Al-Qaeda being behind, being responsible for this anger.
:07:16. > :07:18.
:07:18. > :07:22.Actually, these young people are asking for the same thing.
:07:22. > :07:27.serin -- sectarian tensions have been built up, it is the only way
:07:27. > :07:32.someone like him can hang on to power without slaughter. You can
:07:33. > :07:37.have rhetoric all over the place. It doesn't work if it doesn't
:07:37. > :07:42.fasten on to something real. For example, now, the Christian
:07:43. > :07:52.community are getting worried. They'd do not know what will happen
:07:52. > :07:57.when he falls. They fear they will be persecuted, and Ancient
:07:57. > :08:07.committee. The one thing you could say about the Assad regime, it is
:08:07. > :08:11.secular. Secular societies actually are better for religious minorities
:08:11. > :08:17.than societies where everybody belongs to a single faith.
:08:17. > :08:22.dementia and Libya. I want to come back to you. The situation in Libya
:08:22. > :08:27.has not been a bed of roses either and isn't going well. But, there
:08:27. > :08:31.are branches being offered to Gaddafi as well. Reporters on the
:08:31. > :08:36.scene said there does seem to be a movement perhaps towards Gaddafi,
:08:36. > :08:43.the rebels seem to think they are going into the endgame. Would you
:08:43. > :08:48.agree? Now, I disagree completely. We haven't seen a concrete peace
:08:48. > :08:52.plan for Libya for the last four mums. There were talks about
:08:52. > :08:57.crashing Gaddafi, changing the regime, killing him, assassinated
:08:57. > :09:04.him, bombing his headquarters. We have never seen an olive branch
:09:04. > :09:13.extended to him by any superpower. It seems nowadays, because they
:09:13. > :09:19.realise that, four immense -- months of bombardment. There is no
:09:19. > :09:23.end game. They are saying the best way is for Gaddafi to leave. I
:09:23. > :09:28.think this is a sign of fatigue among NATO. They now realise
:09:28. > :09:37.bombing will not solve the problem and Gaddafi is still holding up.
:09:37. > :09:43.This is a dilemma for them. Fatigue, yes. Apparently, that is what MI6
:09:43. > :09:53.says, he is on the run. Sleeping in a given a hospital every night.
:09:53. > :10:00.
:10:00. > :10:10.you were in his plays, where would you go? It is like Ban Ki-Moon
:10:10. > :10:14.tried to get access to a sad. Nobody wants him. Who will offer
:10:14. > :10:24.him a safe haven? People have been trying to get him out for four
:10:24. > :10:25.
:10:25. > :10:32.months. He has not been interested. Where would he go? Zimbabwe? He can
:10:32. > :10:34.come to Birmingham, he would be extremely welcome. Is there an
:10:34. > :10:41.expectation in the international committee that we expect to sort
:10:41. > :10:51.these things more quickly, but they have become more complicated?
:10:51. > :10:57.is the origin of the Powell doctrine. You can order the sorties
:10:57. > :11:02.but what you do if it does not work out nicely in the short term?
:11:02. > :11:08.Military tools are a blunt instrument. Unless you actually
:11:08. > :11:12.take over the country. Even in the Iraq which did not turn out so well.
:11:12. > :11:19.When his intervention happened, it really was because it looked like
:11:19. > :11:25.it was a humanitarian disaster and they could do nothing. They could
:11:25. > :11:30.have done nothing. Politically, they felt they couldn't. Now you
:11:30. > :11:36.have television showing everything. People said something must be done.
:11:36. > :11:46.One of the worst cries you can inspire, something can be done. I
:11:46. > :11:47.
:11:47. > :11:53.was very against the Libyan intervention in the first place.
:11:53. > :11:59.This is going to be a disaster, as I said. There will be mission creep.
:11:59. > :12:03.A word not often used. It is not going to work. There are other ways
:12:03. > :12:08.of dealing with it. We never bothered, with massacres going on
:12:08. > :12:13.elsewhere, because there wasn't daily television. You mentioned
:12:13. > :12:17.Robert Gates. He is the outgoing American Defence Secretary. In an
:12:17. > :12:21.outspoken speech he described the future for the organisation as dim
:12:21. > :12:27.and dismal and hinted future American administrations might not
:12:27. > :12:37.be so willing to help out their European allies. Is he right?
:12:37. > :12:37.
:12:37. > :12:40.would say, yes, yes, and know. I think anyone of his written foreign
:12:40. > :12:45.policy stories has probably written the European allies are not doing
:12:45. > :12:50.enough to help NATO, not spending as much as the Americans. And it is
:12:50. > :12:55.true. It has been a persistent imbalance in the alliance. Since
:12:55. > :12:59.September 2001, European defence budgets had declined 15%, the
:12:59. > :13:05.proportion the Americans pay for NATO is now some 25% when it used
:13:05. > :13:11.to be 50% at the height of the Cold War. If it is going to work, you
:13:11. > :13:17.see in Libya, they can only do 150 sorties a day. Americans have to
:13:17. > :13:22.provide the bombs because the British and French do not have them.
:13:22. > :13:32.So they are paying their way? Europe is not paid its way. It
:13:32. > :13:36.But without one trillion dollars spent in Iraq, maybe the Americans
:13:36. > :13:42.would have more money to spend. Aware it was the Soviets coming
:13:42. > :13:47.across, everybody understood and 80's mission. Now it is Libya,
:13:47. > :13:52.Afghanistan, what does that have to do with NATO? No one quite
:13:52. > :14:02.understands. Is Europe the poor relative now in NATO? It depends.
:14:02. > :14:02.
:14:02. > :14:05.Look at Libya. America, rightly so, is taking the idea that we are
:14:05. > :14:08.there, but France and Britain are pulling their weight. But we don't
:14:08. > :14:12.have the money to do what we used to do full stops and the other
:14:12. > :14:17.countries are not pulling their weight. Its 28 members, they all
:14:17. > :14:22.agree to go to Libya, only a third is participating in the strikes.
:14:22. > :14:26.a lot of people are not even taking part, is that the crux? They
:14:26. > :14:30.thought it would be a picnic in Libya. In 10 days, it will be
:14:30. > :14:34.finished. That is the problem, underestimation. They thought that
:14:34. > :14:39.Gaddafi would collapse after a few cruise missiles, 150 cruise
:14:39. > :14:44.missiles, he would raise the white flag. That did not happen. Only
:14:45. > :14:53.eight out of 28 have committed themselves in Libya. Britain is
:14:53. > :14:58.losing �1 million every day in Libya. That's the end game. That
:14:58. > :15:03.was one of my arguments about not going into Libya. But even when the
:15:03. > :15:10.NATO allies are putting boots on the ground, Germans, the Germans
:15:10. > :15:18.will not fight after 4:30pm. They have to have their teeth. They are
:15:18. > :15:22.basically pretty useless. Are you sure it is the Germans that want to
:15:22. > :15:31.have tea? The British command their afternoon tea! There afternoon
:15:31. > :15:37.break. I'm going to use a rude word, so I'll try to rephrase this. The
:15:37. > :15:44.Americans must be rather annoyed with Europe. Which pours scorn on
:15:44. > :15:47.everything America stands for and does, cheers at it, and then expect
:15:47. > :15:52.America to do all of the heavy lifting for them. And they will
:15:52. > :16:00.still abuse America. I'm with Robert Gates. This is a military
:16:00. > :16:04.alliance. It is not a do-gooding alliance. It's not an alliance for
:16:04. > :16:12.taking small children to school. I remember Condoleezza Rice saying,
:16:12. > :16:17.ages ago, the role of the B 52s is not to carry small children to
:16:17. > :16:22.their local kindergarten. And this is one of the problems. It's a
:16:22. > :16:27.military alliance. And yet half the people in it, half of the nations
:16:27. > :16:32.in it, they will not to the military part. It's a matter of
:16:32. > :16:36.leadership, I think it's do-able. Perhaps this is a useful reminder.
:16:36. > :16:40.It's a dangerous roll-out there. People have to be more engaged on
:16:40. > :16:45.this strategic question about what it is that the West, NATO, whatever
:16:45. > :16:52.this conglomerate is, should be doing. Is it time to change its
:16:52. > :16:55.role? It has changed, from the place it was going to go after the
:16:55. > :17:01.Soviets, to this incredibly diverse organisation. America almost
:17:01. > :17:10.realised that this Libyan war is Britain and France's adventure. It
:17:10. > :17:14.is for oil, contract and money. 1% of Libyan oil goes to America. Most
:17:14. > :17:18.of it is to Europeans. They realise that. If it's your commercial
:17:18. > :17:23.interests, you go and do it and do it properly. To run out of
:17:23. > :17:29.ammunition? Imagine the European sending troops than running out of
:17:29. > :17:36.ammunition, saying, please, America, give us a subsidised ammunition.
:17:36. > :17:44.don't understand the oil argument. They are selling the oil fine.
:17:44. > :17:48.do they want to topple him? He was the darling of Britain, his son, he
:17:48. > :17:51.was the best guest of the British government here. Tony Blair spoke
:17:51. > :17:54.during the week about this whole issue. He said that countries have
:17:54. > :18:00.to be involved and they have to be involved personally if they are
:18:00. > :18:02.going to be involved at all. He was also asked about kick -- dictators,
:18:03. > :18:07.courting them on the one hand and tried to depose them on the other.
:18:07. > :18:13.He said, when you are caught in them, you caught them for what you
:18:13. > :18:16.want to get from it. But times change, if they don't behave...
:18:16. > :18:23.Change in three years? Tony Blair was the personal guest of Gaddafi
:18:23. > :18:33.whenever he goes to Libya. And Sarkozy. And the nuclear weapons.
:18:33. > :18:34.
:18:34. > :18:41.On the NATO point there is an alternative. It would make the
:18:41. > :18:47.British Screen, but it's a European, defence policy. Look at France and
:18:47. > :18:53.Britain, they work very well together. Give them a chance. There
:18:53. > :19:02.will, eventually, let's give them until Christmas? Would you? Until
:19:02. > :19:06.Armageddon, I think. I was amazed when William Hague said this war in
:19:06. > :19:11.Libya could go beyond Christmas. Imagine that? This war could go
:19:12. > :19:15.beyond Christmas. �1 million every day and we don't know. What kind of
:19:15. > :19:20.estimation is this? What kind of calculation is this? They can't
:19:20. > :19:25.believe? They should look for a political solution. OK, we can't
:19:25. > :19:30.just bomb forever. There's nothing to bomb in Libya. They bombed
:19:30. > :19:35.civilian ships the other day, an airport. What are they doing?
:19:35. > :19:44.Gaddafi used to have only 35 ageing Mirage fighters. They destroyed
:19:44. > :19:51.them. What are they bombing? They should find a solution to this.
:19:51. > :19:56.Arabs need to play a part. They are useless. I agree with you there,
:19:56. > :20:01.the Arab League supported this UN resolution, 1973, whatever it was.
:20:01. > :20:09.The Arab League countries are up to their neck and arms, the best arms
:20:09. > :20:12.possible. They got lots of idle soldiers, not very good ones, they
:20:12. > :20:19.are good at using them to suppress their own people. But have they
:20:19. > :20:26.contributed anything in material or money? I think Qatar has done it a
:20:26. > :20:31.bit, and that's it. The Arabs after initially -- absolutely awful, they
:20:31. > :20:34.expect lots of money and arms from America. You know why they buy
:20:34. > :20:41.their arms? For commissions, corruption. And the British
:20:41. > :20:46.government knows that. The American government also knows that. It's
:20:46. > :20:52.not arms to use for good purposes, it's for commissions. That's the
:20:52. > :20:56.problem. Let's go back to the United States. The relationship now
:20:56. > :21:03.between the White House and the Pentagon. Well, there is discord
:21:03. > :21:06.about Afghanistan in particular. In general, when the changes were made,
:21:06. > :21:11.changing the Secretary of Defence and the head of the CIA, the
:21:11. > :21:14.important characteristic that the National Security Adviser said they
:21:14. > :21:18.were looking for was essentially if everyone can still play nice to get
:21:18. > :21:23.there. They know everybody shooting at each other sideways, that the
:21:23. > :21:27.whole peace thing will run out. Over Afghanistan and the withdrawal
:21:27. > :21:31.of Afghanistan, there is some tension. I think Obama has figured
:21:31. > :21:36.out that the surge has not produced the fancy results that were hoped
:21:36. > :21:41.for and promised. So, how fast is the withdrawal? Its 100,000
:21:41. > :21:46.American troops. How fast are they going to come out? Will it be a big
:21:46. > :21:53.withdrawal? I think people agree on the direction of travel, it's just
:21:53. > :21:58.how fast. General Petraeus, one of the slower, now at the CIA and not
:21:58. > :22:01.in charge of this policy, Leon Panetta or is the new head of
:22:01. > :22:05.defence and is more likely to agree with Obama, let's go.
:22:05. > :22:09.That's all been a bit hot and heavy. Let's look at something completely
:22:09. > :22:12.different and maybe a birthday party. Prince Philip was 90
:22:12. > :22:17.yesterday. He's the longest serving Consort of all time. He says he's
:22:17. > :22:25.done his bit and he wants to take life a little bit more easily. But
:22:25. > :22:32.will he? Now, he won't, apparently. If you see his diary, I'm only 70
:22:32. > :22:37.and I feel a total elderly cripple compared to this man. Well, I am an
:22:37. > :22:43.elderly cripple. But there he is, ramrod straight, always wearing
:22:43. > :22:49.that enormous bearskin. It's fantastic, I love him to bits.
:22:49. > :22:59.the gaffes? Or especially? I was in China, when he said the slit the I
:22:59. > :23:08.
:23:08. > :23:13.-- slitty eye thing. We all waxed furious. It so insulting to the
:23:13. > :23:16.Chinese. And the Chinese could not give a fig, they are terribly
:23:16. > :23:22.racist themselves, they have never been afflicted with political
:23:22. > :23:27.correctness. One of them said to me, why are you so excited about this?
:23:27. > :23:33.I said, we feel it might offend you. He didn't exactly laugh, but I
:23:33. > :23:38.could see him going like this. I love him to bits. Big news in this
:23:38. > :23:43.country, but do they care in France? No, why should we? It's
:23:43. > :23:46.just the birthday of another 19 year-old. I really like his gaffes,
:23:46. > :23:50.I think that's the best thing of him. At least he's not politically
:23:50. > :24:00.correct. Perhaps they would pay attention, other than they would
:24:00. > :24:01.
:24:01. > :24:09.like to have, you know, where there, the man at the back, the shadow of
:24:09. > :24:18.his life. How it should be. Go to Saudi, where we cannot see their
:24:18. > :24:26.wives are tall. That is taboo. -- their wives at all. Sheikh Moser,
:24:26. > :24:31.incredibly glamorous and very in public, she has shocked all of the
:24:31. > :24:37.traditional societies. But at least Qatar is moving ahead, which is
:24:37. > :24:44.great. My best story for Philip is that there was some trade union MP
:24:44. > :24:49.who was at some reception. Phillips said, You are an MP? What did you
:24:49. > :24:59.do before that? And he said, I was a union official. He said, but the
:24:59. > :25:05.The union officials said, what did you do before you got this job? He