:00:03. > :00:13.you can see more mat. BBC News is available on the internet. Now it
:00:13. > :00:28.
:00:28. > :00:32.Hello and welcome to the programme from Abu Dhabi, in the Gulf. They
:00:32. > :00:36.are preparing to welcome the Festival of thinkers, including
:00:36. > :00:40.Nobel prizewinners, from around the world, to discuss her to make our
:00:40. > :00:46.world a better place in the 21st century. Our thinkers are Hassan
:00:46. > :00:50.Fatah, editor of the National, Sultan Al Qassemi, the United Arab
:00:51. > :00:55.Emirates writer, Kate Dourian and Francis Matthew from the Gulf News.
:00:55. > :00:59.We will be asking what people here make of the Iranian nuclear
:00:59. > :01:02.programme. And what next for the Arab Spring? I want to begin by
:01:02. > :01:07.talking about the mess in the eurozone and what it means for
:01:07. > :01:12.people here. How concerned of people in the Gulf region about
:01:12. > :01:17.what is happening in Europe now? People are quite concerned and they
:01:17. > :01:22.damp well should be. Most immediately, there is the economic
:01:22. > :01:27.impact it will have. In terms of bonds, southern welfare financing
:01:27. > :01:31.and such. But just as important, you have something far more
:01:31. > :01:34.dramatic happening in the region, the Arab Spring and the politics of
:01:34. > :01:39.it. People are looking for examples and they are looking at how
:01:39. > :01:43.democracy works. They are asking critical questions about whether
:01:43. > :01:49.democracy works and if it can fit in this region. As they look at
:01:49. > :01:52.Europe going through this crisis, there is a lack of clear leadership,
:01:52. > :01:58.that they are getting scared off, perhaps, and asking complicated
:01:58. > :02:01.questions. That is an interesting question. One of the questions that
:02:01. > :02:07.European would say, is it a question of whether the eurozone is
:02:07. > :02:12.run as a democracy or not. People feel there is a lack of democracy.
:02:12. > :02:14.It is probably a case of mismanagement. The eurozone is made
:02:14. > :02:19.a poor countries with varying degrees of economic development.
:02:19. > :02:25.And Italy and Greece, by some estimates, probably did not even
:02:25. > :02:28.qualified to enter the eurozone. Now we have the news that the next
:02:28. > :02:32.Greek Prime Minister is the person that oversaw the Greek entry into
:02:32. > :02:36.the eurozone and knew about the numbers. It is quite a mess and a
:02:36. > :02:44.case of mismanagement, I should say. We will get onto the Arab Spring in
:02:44. > :02:48.a moment. Do you agree that this has not been a good year to look at
:02:48. > :02:51.the European model when you are looking at democratic models?
:02:51. > :02:56.Europeans have good models of democracy. Perhaps the eurozone is
:02:56. > :03:00.management issue is not one of them. And the people that you deal with,
:03:00. > :03:06.how worried are they about the eurozone? They are worried about
:03:06. > :03:11.the stock market in the region. It tends to follow Europe and New York.
:03:11. > :03:14.The sovereign risk has increased. But this region is shielded by
:03:14. > :03:20.relatively high oil prices. And doing pretty well. They do
:03:20. > :03:24.fluctuate. They go down a bit when the eurozone is particularly hot.
:03:24. > :03:29.But they have surpluses. The only problem is that the country's here,
:03:29. > :03:34.partly as a result of the Arab Spring, are spending more on
:03:34. > :03:36.infrastructure and social programmes. That requires a higher
:03:36. > :03:42.oil price and the threshold that they need to meet these commitments
:03:42. > :03:47.has risen tremendously. That is obviously a risk. I was speaking to
:03:47. > :03:52.businessmen earlier today in this region. One said that their
:03:52. > :03:58.business was growing by 10% per year, and the jaw drops. Club that
:03:58. > :04:02.Qatar, the wealthiest country in the world. -- look at Qatar. You
:04:02. > :04:07.have not got an integrated wealth corporation counsel like in the
:04:07. > :04:12.eurozone but there is some council on the economic front, and trade is
:04:12. > :04:17.increasing. There is a lot of cash splashing around the region and
:04:17. > :04:21.that is why people are being looked to for bail-outs. We do not have
:04:21. > :04:26.exposure to sovereign debt, which is where the European banks are at
:04:26. > :04:30.risk. Exactly the opposite. Nevertheless, Europe is a concern
:04:30. > :04:36.because they are a huge customer for oil and they are very important
:04:36. > :04:44.for this region. I think the euro is one of the largest trading areas
:04:44. > :04:50.and so we have a big interest in a stable euro and we want to see the
:04:50. > :04:55.problem resolved. What about the idea that oil could be priced in
:04:55. > :05:02.euros rather than dollars? They that is a complete non-starter. It
:05:02. > :05:05.has been priced in dollars for a long time. The European project was
:05:05. > :05:09.a fantastic project. Peace in Europe for 60 years and sovereign
:05:09. > :05:17.states working together. This is a lesson for everybody that is pretty
:05:17. > :05:21.solid. It has overreached itself in the management of its currency.
:05:21. > :05:27.What about the management of the euro? It is a non-starter.
:05:27. > :05:34.Absolutely. You cannot really switch currencies on the basis of
:05:34. > :05:39.fluctuations which are transitory. It is the petrol dollar. Everything
:05:39. > :05:44.is priced in dollars. When you look up the dollar versus the euro at
:05:44. > :05:52.the moment... Of Iran it sells in euros and in the end, but they have
:05:52. > :06:00.to take the exchange risk at the same time. -- Iran cells in euros
:06:00. > :06:06.and the Japanese yen. A report has been released this week confirming
:06:06. > :06:11.burrows in this region about the Iranian nuclear programme. --
:06:11. > :06:16.worries. How concerned are people here? There is a lot of scepticism
:06:16. > :06:20.about the nuclear programme. It is based at the southern tip of Iran,
:06:20. > :06:25.close to the Gulf states, so that is another red flag. International
:06:25. > :06:30.monitors are not allowed to access it, which is another red flag. Do
:06:30. > :06:35.you believe that it is peaceful? Is it secure? That is a completely
:06:35. > :06:39.different question. Even those doubts and concerns, and it has
:06:39. > :06:44.been pointed out on this programme and others, it is not just this
:06:44. > :06:49.Iranian Government that has wanted a nuclear programme. It has gone
:06:49. > :06:55.back to the 1970s. Given that fact, what should people do about it and
:06:55. > :07:02.what can be done? It is such a tightrope walk for this region.
:07:02. > :07:05.They realise the real risk of a nuclear programme. The risks of a
:07:05. > :07:09.peaceful nuclear programme are just as significant. If you think about
:07:09. > :07:17.it, a nuclear reactor operating just across the way from here, in
:07:17. > :07:25.an earthquake zone, using all the technology, and essentially spewing
:07:25. > :07:32.water into the Gulf, where we derive our water from... And we
:07:32. > :07:39.have seen what has happened in Japan with the nuclear plant in
:07:39. > :07:43.that area of seismic activity. There are clear problems with that.
:07:43. > :07:49.And also there is the problem of the weapons programme which raises
:07:49. > :07:53.alarm bells. The problem of it at the same time is the reaction. I
:07:53. > :08:00.think there is a real fear of warfare Kerrigan people want to
:08:00. > :08:09.avoid that at all costs. -- warfare appearing and people want to avoid
:08:09. > :08:13.that at all costs. Are you as worried about the reaction from the
:08:13. > :08:19.United States and possibly Israel as you are about the nuclear
:08:19. > :08:26.programme? There are chances for things to go wrong, absolutely. I
:08:26. > :08:30.think it is really time for cool heads to prevail. Right, well, we
:08:30. > :08:40.are all in favour of cool heads, but have we got bent in Tehran,
:08:40. > :08:42.
:08:42. > :08:45.Washington, or Israel? -- have we got them? There were talks about
:08:45. > :08:49.Obama going to war against Iran but they cannot even pay their debts
:08:49. > :08:54.because they have overspent. Are they seriously thinking about that?
:08:54. > :09:01.I don't think so but they have a dilemma. There is pressure from
:09:01. > :09:06.Capitol Hill to do something about Iran because they have had these
:09:06. > :09:09.issues for years and nothing has changed. They have heard Iran in
:09:09. > :09:12.some ways because there is no foreign investment and their
:09:12. > :09:19.projects are running behind. They have not increased their oil and
:09:19. > :09:23.gas production so they are injured in that sense. Now they cannot even
:09:23. > :09:26.be paid in Japanese yen and euros because of the ban on financial
:09:26. > :09:32.transactions, so they are having to barter. The Americans are thinking
:09:33. > :09:36.of stopping at, which would affect their relationship with China. I
:09:36. > :09:46.think the last resort would be to ban oil exports by Iran because
:09:46. > :09:46.
:09:46. > :09:52.then you will save $200 for a barrel of oil. -- you will see.
:09:52. > :09:58.$200? Possibly. And then oil will be shipped from Saudi Arabia,
:09:59. > :10:05.Kuwait, Iraq and Iran. For Iran it would be shooting themselves in it
:10:05. > :10:10.there for it because that is their only outlet for oil exports. --
:10:10. > :10:15.shooting themselves in the foot. If they could export oil than they
:10:15. > :10:24.could cause a nuisance. There could be mining of the waters, as we have
:10:24. > :10:29.seen before. Oil is currently $115 per barrel, roughly. The potential
:10:29. > :10:36.for oil 2 double is extraordinary. I am not predicting that, but it is
:10:36. > :10:40.what people say. There is an election coming up in the USA, so
:10:40. > :10:47.the last thing they want is higher oil prices. In need to balance the
:10:47. > :10:52.policy against Iran and not harm themselves economically. -- they
:10:52. > :10:59.need to. They are still the biggest exporters of crude oil and so it
:10:59. > :11:08.would hurt. And Israel, are they going to stand by it in the wake of
:11:08. > :11:16.this and say, fine, they are testing. He does not seem to me
:11:16. > :11:20.that Israel will stand back and do nothing and wait and see. You are
:11:20. > :11:24.right to say that everybody wants cool heads to prevail, but you
:11:24. > :11:27.could ask yourself the same question about Tehran. What is the
:11:27. > :11:37.end of this programme, given the statements that have been made by
:11:37. > :11:38.
:11:38. > :11:41.the President and so one? -- so on? Firstly, the world is going nuclear.
:11:41. > :11:45.There are 7 billion people and not enough energy and all over the
:11:45. > :11:51.world there will be more nuclear power stations. Iran has as much
:11:51. > :11:55.right as anybody else to go that way. Then you have got this report.
:11:56. > :12:01.They are apparently quoting new evidence, but the 16th aged and
:12:01. > :12:08.next to this report was not that impressive. -- 16 page annex to
:12:08. > :12:14.this report. They are saying that Iran might have the capacity to get
:12:14. > :12:19.this technology. Sometime, somewhere, nobody knows where. I am
:12:19. > :12:26.very sceptical of Iran's actual position right now. That is because
:12:26. > :12:30.Ahmadinejad loves controversy. Unfortunately he is going to an
:12:30. > :12:36.election in 2012 and once his man to do well. We sometimes forget
:12:36. > :12:43.that they have sophisticated politics at play. He has a
:12:43. > :12:49.miserable record and he wants the good nationalist policy to come
:12:49. > :12:58.through. And Obama has the same issue of elections. We have two
:12:58. > :13:02.President's, both wanting to clash. That is not cool heads prevailing!
:13:03. > :13:08.There does not seem to be any appetite for Americans to get
:13:08. > :13:13.involved in warfare in this region. I don't think there is any capacity
:13:13. > :13:18.for it, let's be honest. Neither a month electorate or the leadership.
:13:19. > :13:22.I don't think that is the issue. The issue is something silly, a
:13:22. > :13:28.mistake happening, that will create something far bigger. That is what
:13:28. > :13:36.we should really be concerned about. How should we deal with it? When
:13:36. > :13:42.Dick Cheney did his farewell tour, I was told that the Americans were
:13:42. > :13:46.told privately that if it was a choice between striking against
:13:46. > :13:53.Iran or living under the shadow of the Persian nuclear bomb, they
:13:53. > :14:03.would prefer Iran to be attacked. That is not being said publicly.
:14:03. > :14:08.
:14:08. > :14:14.Are people prepared for that? Could The onus falls on the Gulf states.
:14:14. > :14:19.It is their duty to try and talk Iran into allowing monitors. If you
:14:19. > :14:23.take the extreme measure of striking the nuclear facility, it
:14:23. > :14:32.is too close to the sea for it not to have an effect on the countries
:14:32. > :14:42.in the region. There needs to be a much more proactive approach rather
:14:42. > :14:42.
:14:42. > :14:47.than a reactive approach. Even going back to Ronald Reagan's time,
:14:47. > :14:52.he said the reason people have weapons is because they are
:14:52. > :14:56.frightened. If we go to the root cause of this there must be,
:14:57. > :15:00.presumably, a political solution to suggest to be a run that there is a
:15:01. > :15:06.way where your economy could thrive and you could rejoin the world
:15:06. > :15:14.community. I think the Regent will play an important role in that.
:15:14. > :15:20.There are very clear trade links and historic ties that exist.
:15:20. > :15:25.remember WikiLeaks. This is all happening in in the wake of the
:15:25. > :15:35.alleged plot to kill the Saudi ambassador to London and to blow up
:15:35. > :15:39.
:15:39. > :15:45.the Saudi embassy. WikiLeaks says it was the Saudis who told do
:15:45. > :15:50.Americans to cut off the head of the snake, referring to Iran. They
:15:50. > :15:55.want to weaken Iran, particularly with the Americans now withdrawing
:15:55. > :16:04.from Iraq and, supposedly, redeploying elsewhere in the Gulf.
:16:04. > :16:10.So you will have the US troop presence. One way of looking at the
:16:10. > :16:14.history of the past 10 or 15 years is that the United States has
:16:15. > :16:21.neutralised the two greatest strategic enemies of the Iranian
:16:21. > :16:30.regime, both in Afghanistan and Iraq, so US policy has not always
:16:30. > :16:39.produce the result that American policy makers wish. Definitely not.
:16:39. > :16:44.But say, there is no appetite for ground forces in Iran, but say
:16:44. > :16:48.there is an air strike on certain specific targets, there will almost
:16:48. > :16:54.certainly be a counter reaction from Iran. They would love to get
:16:54. > :16:59.that those American soldiers sitting in Iraq. They could declare
:16:59. > :17:07.unilaterally that this country has help this happen and launch a
:17:07. > :17:11.counter-attack. But that is for 2012. In 2013 or 2014, Iran will
:17:11. > :17:16.still be there, Saudi Arabia will still be there, America will still
:17:16. > :17:21.be there and everybody will have to get on with it. You cannot stop the
:17:21. > :17:26.country having nuclear power. You may delay it. Even a strike would
:17:26. > :17:32.not stop them getting it in the end, it just puts it off for a year or
:17:32. > :17:38.two. The military option is the wrong answer. As the Arab Spring
:17:38. > :17:43.turns into the Arab winter, we have new governments in Tunisia,
:17:43. > :17:48.elections coming up in Egypt and the big changes in Libya, but how
:17:48. > :17:54.important as the role of women been in this and how important have been
:17:54. > :17:57.the kinds of dialogues established here such as the festival but we
:17:57. > :18:01.are here to discuss? The conversation has changed greatly in
:18:01. > :18:07.the Arab world over the past few months, partly because of what
:18:07. > :18:12.happened 10 months ago in Tunisia. Certainly, I think the euphoria is
:18:12. > :18:17.wearing off. I think what people are realising is that a hard work
:18:17. > :18:21.begins now. This is when you have to build consensus, you have the
:18:21. > :18:26.build governments, and you have to cultivate the role of law and the
:18:26. > :18:31.institutions that would protect the rule of law and democracy. For one
:18:31. > :18:38.thing that people are really worried about here is the Yemen and
:18:38. > :18:43.the situation there. Explain why this is so concerning here. It is
:18:43. > :18:49.just down the street. It is at St just down the water as well! And
:18:49. > :18:54.there are deep ties just between the two countries. Yemen is a place
:18:55. > :19:00.which has its own resource problems with water, with poverty, with
:19:00. > :19:04.hunger. Those will only grow worse and worse and more complicated to
:19:04. > :19:09.deal with and will only impact here further and further. You mean
:19:09. > :19:16.physically because people will move? Well, potentially. It has so
:19:16. > :19:21.many different dimensions to it. think Yemen is a problem that has
:19:21. > :19:26.been neglected and ignored by the region, the world, even the Gulf
:19:26. > :19:32.states, for far too long. Yemen is running out of water in the next
:19:32. > :19:37.few years. It needed desalination plants five years ago, not five
:19:37. > :19:41.years from now. So whoever the government is, there are facts on
:19:41. > :19:48.the ground which really quite worrying. For the infrastructure is
:19:48. > :19:53.terrible. Unlike Syria, where the infrastructure is much better,
:19:53. > :19:58.Turkey, Iraq, there are developed countries around which can trade
:19:58. > :20:06.much easier than Yemen. There are not rich neighbours that they can
:20:06. > :20:09.export to. The road infrastructure is abysmal. It is in very bad shape.
:20:09. > :20:15.That bit think that I raised there, talking about people who are
:20:15. > :20:19.thinking ahead for what kind of sentry we are going to live in. How
:20:19. > :20:23.do you think things have changed here in terms of openness to new
:20:23. > :20:32.ideas, to saying things which a few years ago you would not have said
:20:32. > :20:36.publicly? It is a slow movement and people forget that this is not a
:20:36. > :20:41.rapid political switch which is going to change. It is a
:20:41. > :20:44.generational change which is happening in the Gulf. 60% of the
:20:44. > :20:50.gold populations are under 25 and they are now taking their place in
:20:50. > :20:58.society. The only big and Sir for any big Arab government is are you
:20:58. > :21:04.going to lead those people by giving them education or you going
:21:04. > :21:10.to be led by a revolution and and Arabs bring? It is two sides of the
:21:10. > :21:14.coin. The clever guys are the one to are getting ahead of the game
:21:14. > :21:24.and St you need education, you need to be part of the global world, you
:21:24. > :21:24.
:21:24. > :21:29.need to be able to get on with the international community. It is
:21:29. > :21:37.about education. You do have high levels of literacy amongst Women in
:21:37. > :21:42.places like Morocco, Yemen. It is all changing now but if the look at
:21:42. > :21:51.the number of women who want seats in the vote, the percentage is far
:21:51. > :21:56.higher than even in the United States. It is changing but Tunisia
:21:56. > :21:59.is unique because they have always had empowerment of women. Then you
:21:59. > :22:05.have Libya way you have a leader who says polygamy should be
:22:05. > :22:13.reintroduced. You have places like Saudi Arabia where there will be
:22:13. > :22:23.the collections and a few years down the line women will be allowed
:22:23. > :22:35.
:22:35. > :22:42.to boat -- in you have elections. - - women will be allowed to vote.
:22:42. > :22:50.Have you noticed that pick societal change and has the Arab Spring
:22:50. > :22:54.helped? I think it has made it much further ahead. I think women out
:22:54. > :22:59.there in Egypt and in other places has put them front of stage. We
:22:59. > :23:04.have been going through this generational change for a long time.
:23:04. > :23:09.Even in Saudi Arabia, women are becoming breadwinners and they are
:23:09. > :23:15.becoming integral to the economics of the family. They are still
:23:15. > :23:20.developing a degree of economic power. It will take time. Any kind
:23:20. > :23:25.of controlled change takes a long, long time. But you begin to see the
:23:25. > :23:29.seeds of that change all through the region. That is part of what
:23:29. > :23:34.outsiders fail to get. They know that Arab culture goes back for
:23:34. > :23:41.centuries but the state his MD 40 years old. That is part of it, it
:23:41. > :23:47.is a new state in an old culture. always say that our hardware is
:23:47. > :23:52.very advance in the Gulf but the soft when used to be updated!
:23:52. > :23:57.is the software being updated? Are you one of those optimists? Syria
:23:57. > :24:02.is going to go through a very difficult time. It will be patchy.
:24:02. > :24:08.Different things in different places. Obviously, at the Gulf
:24:08. > :24:14.states differ, even internally. Syria is a very advanced country.
:24:14. > :24:19.Women are very educated. You have the religious section of society,
:24:19. > :24:24.you have the Conservatives as well as the Liberals. It is really a
:24:24. > :24:28.diverse culture on its own. I do not worry about Syria in the long
:24:28. > :24:32.run. I worry about countries that take away the rights of, for
:24:32. > :24:37.example, are women, because in the end women will have to raise their
:24:37. > :24:43.kids and to give a child does not see his mother and his sister equal
:24:43. > :24:47.to his father and brother, then we have a big problem there. Do you
:24:47. > :24:55.think we can end on a note of optimism that there is considerable
:24:55. > :25:01.optimism in this region for that evolutionary change? In the long
:25:01. > :25:06.term, yes. There is a lot of pain to go through. It depends how much
:25:06. > :25:12.pain is could be ensured. Iraq is an example of enforced change and a
:25:12. > :25:20.miserable 10 years of imposed civil war, almost. Syria and Yemen are
:25:20. > :25:25.heading, I think, for failed states. The role model seems to be Somalia.
:25:25. > :25:31.The other countries, it is exciting. After all these miserable decades
:25:31. > :25:36.of dictatorship, and now every Arab knows that change can happen. So,
:25:36. > :25:41.even if this one goes wrong, the next one can be better planned.
:25:41. > :25:45.had been struck by how many young Arabs when you talk about here race
:25:45. > :25:52.they do talk about the young man who killed himself in Tunisia and
:25:52. > :25:58.sparked off the Arab Spring. have a Nobel Peace Prize winner
:25:58. > :26:02.from the Yemen, which is the first. In Islam, women are allowed to have
:26:02. > :26:07.control of their finances so if you take that a bit further, maybe we
:26:07. > :26:16.need a women's Arab Spring in the future. It is going to take a long