:00:27. > :00:31.nothing for the temperatures. I Welcome to Dateline London. This
:00:32. > :00:37.week we look at the eurozone crisis. The state of the coalition
:00:37. > :00:44.government, the US pull-out from Iraq, and protests worldwide.
:00:44. > :00:50.Joining me today are Tim Montgomery, Ashish Ray, Mustapha Karkouti, and
:00:50. > :00:57.Catherine Mayer, of Time magazine. Welcome to what used.
:00:57. > :01:02.The eurozone crisis continues with the outside looking in, with the
:01:02. > :01:06.French Prime Minister calling Britain and obstinate kid. The top
:01:06. > :01:12.credit agency is considering downgrading Belgium, Spain,
:01:12. > :01:16.Slovenia, Italy, Ireland and Cyprus. Tim Montgomery, David Cameron
:01:17. > :01:20.seemed to have some success in his own party by using his veto. But
:01:20. > :01:29.what does it mean for a coalition government when the other half does
:01:29. > :01:32.not agree? It was a boost for David Cameron. It was also in the mind of
:01:32. > :01:36.the British people that he had shown strength, and honesty. He
:01:36. > :01:41.said what he was going to do if he did not get agreement, and he did
:01:41. > :01:46.exactly that. That is why he has enjoyed a bonus. The danger for him
:01:46. > :01:51.is what you say, the coalition is not such a happy thing as it was
:01:51. > :01:56.just two weeks ago. My own view is that if Nick Clegg wants a retreat
:01:56. > :02:00.on the veto, he will not get it because of the political bonus that
:02:00. > :02:04.David Cameron has received from exercising it. Where the cost will
:02:04. > :02:11.be is when the Conservatives ask the Liberal Democrats for action on
:02:11. > :02:15.growth, they will find a coalition partner who is less agreeable.
:02:15. > :02:19.Catherine, one of the things Nick Clegg, who is the other half of the
:02:19. > :02:22.coalition, the Deputy Prime Minister, one of the things he said
:02:22. > :02:28.was David Cameron using the veto would mean the United States would
:02:28. > :02:33.think less of the UK, that perhaps we would not have quite a special
:02:33. > :02:36.relationship. Was he right? There is always an idea of the special
:02:36. > :02:41.relationship which I always want to do this with my fingers. It is such
:02:41. > :02:44.a nonsense phrase in so many ways. The idea that Britain was the
:02:44. > :02:47.bridge to the rest of Europe, which was so much difficult to do
:02:47. > :02:54.business with because they did not speak the same language and they
:02:54. > :02:59.were not as close. That notion has been unravelling for years. But if
:02:59. > :03:03.you look at these things the other way around, yes, it is quite clear
:03:03. > :03:06.that in Washington there is consternation about the eurozone,
:03:06. > :03:13.about different people's roles within it. I would say there's a
:03:13. > :03:19.lot more consternation about Germany bringing out what Cameron
:03:19. > :03:27.turned the big bazooka. But did you not find it ironic that the euro
:03:27. > :03:30.zone was told to line its ducks and a row? This was at the. The US
:03:30. > :03:37.government was facing a complete shutdown because they could not
:03:37. > :03:43.agree the Budget. So what you are actually seeing is a vacuum in
:03:43. > :03:46.power, a lack of control in all of these different capitals. I do not
:03:46. > :03:51.think there are many of things to worry about at the moment, but the
:03:51. > :04:01.idea that Britain and America will permanently alter their
:04:01. > :04:07.relationship at the stage where who knows who will be in next year, in
:04:07. > :04:13.the US elections in 20th November 12. Many of these eurozone leaders
:04:13. > :04:18.are facing elections, the coalition is looking a rockier than it was,
:04:18. > :04:22.but if I had to take a bet, I would say that they did Cameron and Nick
:04:22. > :04:32.Clegg will be in power long after some of these other leaders we are
:04:32. > :04:32.
:04:32. > :04:37.talking about. I think to a certain extent it is much ado about nothing.
:04:37. > :04:43.The coalition will remain. The Lib Dems have know where to go, with
:04:43. > :04:48.about 10% to go. They are not in a position to cut loose. Even if they
:04:48. > :04:51.were to leave, it would be very difficult for the rest of
:04:52. > :04:57.Parliament to muster up 55% of support, and thereby defeat the
:04:57. > :05:04.Government on the floor of the Commons. That said, I think it is
:05:04. > :05:08.fairly clear that whatever Cameron did, good, bad, indifferent, has
:05:08. > :05:11.been fairly popular with the British people. I have noticed
:05:11. > :05:16.three opinion polls and the last are the days that have indicated
:05:16. > :05:20.the Conservatives are marginally ahead of Labour. That is a fairly
:05:20. > :05:24.significant indication of how people may be thinking. It is
:05:24. > :05:29.possibly more Middle England than anywhere else, but it is also
:05:29. > :05:36.possibly people thinking more emotionally than with their heads.
:05:36. > :05:40.At the end of the day, the fact is that Cameron has emerged from this
:05:40. > :05:48.decision of refusing to sign up to the treaty as rather more popular
:05:48. > :05:53.with the British people than what he was a week ago. I would like to
:05:53. > :06:00.continue on that. I would also like to say that will we see really is
:06:00. > :06:07.political theatre. This is on all sides. Nick Clegg is trying to
:06:07. > :06:17.satisfy a his ground roots, and his party and all that. David Cameron
:06:17. > :06:18.
:06:18. > :06:24.is trying to address the domestic background, by talking about Europe.
:06:24. > :06:30.So does President Sarkozy. Everyone has got a domestic issue, and they
:06:30. > :06:34.need to satisfy that. There is political theatre. But is that
:06:34. > :06:37.getting in the way of progress? We have heard of some of the credit
:06:37. > :06:42.agencies saying that there is no political solution to this.
:06:42. > :06:51.doubt about that. If you look at the Europe summit, it is a disaster.
:06:51. > :06:57.What they need to focus on, the whole world, by the way, are
:06:58. > :07:02.worried about what is going on in the euro-zone. What they need to
:07:02. > :07:06.focus on his the eurozone problem. No one is talking about that. The
:07:06. > :07:10.whole summit failed to address the issue, and now when you listen to
:07:10. > :07:20.these politicians, whether it is Nick Kavanagh David Clegg or
:07:20. > :07:28.
:07:28. > :07:37.President Sarkozy. This theatre is not deliberate. The country that
:07:37. > :07:42.was the most isolated at the summit was Germany, not the UK, but then
:07:42. > :07:48.David Cameron did what he did, and it unleashed this particular war of
:07:48. > :07:52.words. The one phrase I would take issue with that is much ado about
:07:52. > :08:00.nothing. This is much ado about something absolutely fundamental,
:08:00. > :08:03.and truly terrifying, and I do not think there is any sign of...
:08:03. > :08:09.am not underestimating the seriousness of the crisis. Nothing
:08:09. > :08:18.will change in before a nation that there is at the moment. What would
:08:18. > :08:22.worry Britain is the fact that 10 countries, out of the 27 who are
:08:22. > :08:26.not part of the euro, Britain was the only one who refused to join
:08:26. > :08:35.the new treaty. The isolation of Britain therefore is a worrying
:08:35. > :08:45.factor for the Forum of this. Britain has isolated itself.
:08:45. > :08:46.
:08:46. > :08:53.worrying factor for the Foreign Office. No one went along with
:08:53. > :08:56.Britain. But it is hard to say that at the end of this process that
:08:56. > :09:02.Britain will be isolated. Those who signed up to the treaty did it
:09:02. > :09:05.quickly, and I actually think it is perfectly possible that in a few
:09:05. > :09:11.weeks we will see the treaty as having failed to address the
:09:11. > :09:18.central issue of the euro. Britain's isolation might look like
:09:18. > :09:21.wisdom and foresight to stand away from this. I think you are right up
:09:21. > :09:30.until the point where you talk about what Britain is going to look
:09:30. > :09:35.like. I think everyone is going to come out of this looking bad. The
:09:35. > :09:41.whole thing is a tissue. But never dealt with the whole issue about
:09:41. > :09:45.the role of the European Central Bank, for example. There was
:09:45. > :09:48.nothing substantial there. But it is not as though the deal was
:09:49. > :09:57.inadequate to save the euro, it cannot be said of. Is that your
:09:57. > :10:00.view? It has to. We have seen bad economic data from island in the
:10:00. > :10:07.last 24 hours, and that was supposed to be the country that was
:10:07. > :10:10.coping best with austerity. -- from island. Until the countries have
:10:10. > :10:14.exchange rate flexibility, which is the way that every country has
:10:14. > :10:24.dealt with the crisis, they will not recover. The euro has not dealt
:10:24. > :10:29.with this. Britain will now have observers, we are told, is Britain
:10:30. > :10:36.now impotent within Europe? We have vetoed one thing, and we will be
:10:36. > :10:40.sitting on the outside of another. If you go to a negotiation table,
:10:40. > :10:45.people also know -- or was no at the end of the day you will always
:10:45. > :10:51.be there. Because Britain walked away once, we have now shown that
:10:51. > :10:54.our negotiation tactics matter. In the last few days we have got an
:10:54. > :10:59.agreement on fisheries. That has happened since the veto was
:10:59. > :11:03.exercise. That might have happened anyway. It might, but the key point
:11:03. > :11:07.is that since we exercise that, we have won a major agreement with
:11:07. > :11:17.Europe. I think the exaggeration of the isolation argument has been
:11:17. > :11:18.
:11:18. > :11:22.Provan. -- has been proved. Over the past years, the governments
:11:22. > :11:30.have always have disagreements with Europe. But it did not reach this
:11:30. > :11:37.level. We all know what Cameron wanted, he wanted to protect the
:11:37. > :11:47.city of London and the UK to continue being able to regulate its
:11:47. > :11:47.
:11:47. > :11:54.own city and to stop you up from interfering in that. That is a
:11:54. > :11:58.national issue, and no one heard the debate before the summit, and
:11:58. > :12:05.suddenly we're reaching a point at the end of the summit to the
:12:05. > :12:08.surprise of so many that David Cameron was the only one against
:12:08. > :12:16.the stop I agree that Cameron has come across looking strong to the
:12:16. > :12:19.British public for the moment. people will see this was not a
:12:19. > :12:23.demonstration of strength, it was a demonstration of weakness to his
:12:23. > :12:29.backbenchers, and that every single leader involved in the process
:12:29. > :12:33.looks impotent. This is a year where we look around and do not see
:12:33. > :12:38.anyone who has control of the situation. Do you agree with Tim
:12:38. > :12:44.Montgomery? Will the euro go down? I think he is probably right.
:12:44. > :12:48.Probably by the middle of next year. It is a possibility. It will be
:12:48. > :12:52.catastrophic if it does take place. The European countries,
:12:52. > :12:58.particularly Germany and France will not allow it to happen easily.
:12:58. > :13:02.This is my feeling. But if you look at the figures, what has happened
:13:02. > :13:07.today with the credit rating agencies threatening to downgrade
:13:07. > :13:12.the creditworthiness of six countries, including Italy, and
:13:12. > :13:18.with the other bad news about the euro, it does not look good. I can
:13:18. > :13:24.see that. I still feel that Germany in particular will not allow this
:13:24. > :13:31.to happen easily. It is still possible they may cut adrift one or
:13:31. > :13:39.two countries who are in a position of weakness, and therefore may not
:13:39. > :13:44.be part of the euro or in future. But for that to do so good --
:13:44. > :13:47.disappear altogether, I am not sure. Let us leave that for the moment.
:13:47. > :13:57.The United States formally ended its involvement in Iraq this week.
:13:57. > :13:59.
:13:59. > :14:04.The troops may be on the way home but what is being left behind? Mr -
:14:04. > :14:07.- Mustapha Karkouti What do you make of this? There will be no
:14:07. > :14:15.writs on the ground for the next few years, but the American
:14:15. > :14:22.influence will remain there in so many forms, no doubt. Financially,
:14:22. > :14:28.economically. Running Iraq after what has happened over the past
:14:28. > :14:35.eight or nine years... Was it a success? It is not really a success,
:14:35. > :14:41.it is a disaster. From the invasion in 2003 up to now. The loss of
:14:41. > :14:48.human life, the loss of finance and all that, you cannot call at a
:14:48. > :14:54.success, and now leaving Iraq with a huge vacuum in the country, being
:14:54. > :15:04.filled by probably other regional areas, like Iran and Turkey, there
:15:04. > :15:08.is a competition between them over the influence in the region itself.
:15:08. > :15:18.Whoever controlled Iraq at the end of the day would certainly
:15:18. > :15:20.
:15:20. > :15:24.An election year next year. Or would you agree with Mustapha
:15:24. > :15:30.Karkouti, a disaster? It was gracefully done to the extent it
:15:30. > :15:37.was possible a withdrawal was absolutely inevitable. I thought
:15:37. > :15:44.the ceremony itself was actually done very moving. The important
:15:44. > :15:49.part was that the tribute was paid to the servicemen and women, which,
:15:49. > :15:52.whatever you think of the conflict, and I think it was a disaster and a
:15:52. > :15:59.bad idea and everything else, you have to pay tribute to the people
:15:59. > :16:04.that served there. What does Obama game in the public? I? He does and
:16:04. > :16:09.lose from it but it is not an election winner. This entire
:16:09. > :16:14.election is going to be fought on the economy. That is a truism in
:16:14. > :16:19.many ways, but at this particular time, the tea party influence,
:16:19. > :16:24.everything else, this is going to be big government versus small
:16:24. > :16:30.government and who you can believe will dig America out of a whole, to
:16:30. > :16:36.the extent that the expensive foreign wars that have uncertain
:16:36. > :16:42.outcomes are even more unpopular than they were, then the more you
:16:42. > :16:49.can find an exit, the better. have always believed it was an
:16:49. > :16:55.unfair, unjustified, illegal war. Illegal invasion of a country. But
:16:55. > :17:01.violated the United Nations Charter. At the end of it, the proof of the
:17:01. > :17:05.pudding will be from here onwards. The Iraq that has been left behind,
:17:05. > :17:11.I am not sure whether it is as stable today as it was before the
:17:11. > :17:15.Americans went in. It has happened at a great cost. It has cost $800
:17:15. > :17:23.billion to the American Exchequer. It has weakened the United States
:17:23. > :17:27.economy. I have always felt that the better way of tackling the
:17:27. > :17:31.Saddam Hussein problem would have been a peaceful and diplomatic
:17:31. > :17:34.approach through the United Nations. That process was never allowed to
:17:34. > :17:40.be completed and instead a violent approach was taken and I am not
:17:40. > :17:45.sure the solution has been a pound. Tim, given we were coalition
:17:45. > :17:52.partners with the United States in this, what fall-out will be on the
:17:52. > :17:55.UK, looking bat at -- looking back at these various conflicts. We have
:17:55. > :18:00.heard the argument about the justification of the war many times
:18:00. > :18:04.and the key thing, the judgment that needed to be made over recent
:18:04. > :18:12.years, particularly the decisions that President Obama has made, we
:18:12. > :18:16.have invested so much in this war, the deaths, that was enormous.
:18:16. > :18:24.After having spent so much money and blood to ensure that Iraq moved
:18:24. > :18:29.to stability, when a bummer inherited Iraq, it was getting
:18:29. > :18:32.better. The key thing he needed to do was to do what Americans have
:18:32. > :18:37.achieved in places like Korea and Germany and Japan after similar
:18:37. > :18:43.conflicts, which was a continued American presence. He did not
:18:43. > :18:48.deliver that. What concerned him was to get the troops home in time
:18:48. > :18:51.for the American election. It means now the Iraqi army say they are not
:18:51. > :18:57.able to protect their airspace, they are not able to undertake
:18:57. > :19:02.counter terrorism, they are not equipped to look after Iraq. They
:19:02. > :19:06.needed the United States to stay and Obama sabotaged an agreement so
:19:06. > :19:10.that troops could stay for domestic political reasons and that is why
:19:10. > :19:17.we will see Iraq incredibly vulnerable to Iranian and other
:19:17. > :19:26.nations in Florence. I think history will judge Obama very badly
:19:26. > :19:29.for his judgment. -- and other nations influence.
:19:29. > :19:37.Reports from Egypt this weekend that the island still continues on
:19:37. > :19:41.the streets. Where are we? Well, it is the time of revolution, and this
:19:41. > :19:50.is what is happening in the region. And the revolution is not overnight,
:19:50. > :19:56.it is not one week or one month. It will continue in this situation for
:19:56. > :20:05.I really don't know when, it might take a few years. Whether in Egypt
:20:05. > :20:12.or in Syria, everywhere in the region. There is a huge tide coming
:20:12. > :20:16.into the region. Change will happen. What is the role of other countries
:20:16. > :20:21.looking in, Ashish Ray? What should we do to support these emerging
:20:21. > :20:26.democracies? I think support for democracy right across the border
:20:26. > :20:30.is necessary. A country like India, a good example in terms of a
:20:30. > :20:37.developing country, having had democracy from day one, and that is
:20:37. > :20:41.of great benefit for any country to have the freedom to have the rule
:20:41. > :20:49.of law and such like, to encourage the developing world, including
:20:49. > :20:55.China, to encourage... China might not be a great case itself, but the
:20:55. > :21:05.fact that democracy encourages stability, we need to see the Arab
:21:05. > :21:06.
:21:06. > :21:09.Spring actor the results in democracy which is durable. We are
:21:09. > :21:16.witnessing the first shoots, I guess, and therefore, there is some
:21:16. > :21:20.time to go before it can really mature. Even in Egypt, there are
:21:20. > :21:25.signs that the military there doesn't seem too keen to be
:21:25. > :21:31.dislodged from their exalted position. I think we have to wait
:21:31. > :21:36.and watch and watch it very carefully. And encourage the
:21:36. > :21:41.process from outside, more than anything else. Catherine. I am not
:21:41. > :21:48.even sure about what process it is that we think we are encouraging.
:21:48. > :21:53.What is obvious is take a look at that region widely. What we have
:21:53. > :22:00.seen around the world is protest happening everywhere. The Arab
:22:00. > :22:04.Spring sparked protests in China, you mentioned China. You have had
:22:04. > :22:09.Russia, you have had, you know, Kazakhstan, where they have managed
:22:09. > :22:13.to keep the lid on things for a long time, you are seeing this
:22:13. > :22:18.everywhere. I talked earlier about the sort of impotence of leadership
:22:18. > :22:24.across the world at the moment, and this is an interesting moment. And
:22:24. > :22:28.little advert for time. We chose our person of the year, and our
:22:28. > :22:34.person of the year is the protester. It is the protesters because we are
:22:34. > :22:43.not looking across the Arab Spring, but the occupied movements, the
:22:43. > :22:47.indignant ones in Spain. This is a moment where there has been a
:22:47. > :22:53.movement where the political process is not moving. Things like
:22:53. > :22:56.the eurozone crisis, the political leaders are like rabbits in the
:22:56. > :23:02.headlights. People are coming out onto the streets. But we don't know
:23:02. > :23:05.what it will end up like. With that sort of protest, it can end up with
:23:05. > :23:09.something great and wonderful, and democracy the way we want to see it,
:23:09. > :23:16.but it can go in a completely different direction. You say time
:23:16. > :23:20.has chosen the generic protest of. Normally, it is a strong leader
:23:20. > :23:26.that we choose. But what you're saying is that the strength is
:23:26. > :23:30.lying with the be bought. Looking at the runners up, you look through,
:23:30. > :23:36.there may be an argument for Angela Merkel to beat a runner up, but she
:23:36. > :23:42.has been more decisive through what she has not done than through what
:23:42. > :23:45.she has. And the other runner up, I wake, the Chinese dissident, and I
:23:45. > :23:49.profiled Kate Middleton, and some people don't think she should be
:23:49. > :23:55.there, but people went on to the streets. There were people cheering
:23:55. > :24:04.this institution. It is exactly one year ago that fruit seller in
:24:04. > :24:09.Tunisia set fire to himself, which then started this movement. What
:24:09. > :24:14.the editorial team had in mind when they decided this simply they would
:24:14. > :24:21.have a figure, head of state or somebody, but this time they had
:24:21. > :24:30.the street on the cover. People are sick and tired of their leaders.
:24:30. > :24:35.This is a fact in the entire region. That is why an Tunisia, for example,
:24:35. > :24:39.huge demonstrations, and in Egypt, and Syria, people are tired. They
:24:39. > :24:44.want to change the leaders. Their leaders are not fit to lead any
:24:44. > :24:48.longer. Tim, politically across the world, leaders are having to think
:24:48. > :24:53.not just about their own issues but issues such as this, what people
:24:53. > :24:58.want in their own countries and in developing countries. How are we
:24:58. > :25:01.handling it? Politicians realise this is a phenomenon of the
:25:01. > :25:05.internet age. Previously, scattered people were not able to connect
:25:05. > :25:09.with people of a like mind, but social media and the internet means
:25:09. > :25:13.that small groups of people geographically disparate can come
:25:13. > :25:18.together and create a storm, particularly true of the protests
:25:18. > :25:22.we have seen against Vladimir Putin in Moscow. I think what the trick
:25:22. > :25:27.of a politician, the art of a politician is to distinguish
:25:27. > :25:30.between a mass movement, a protest which signals something deep in a
:25:30. > :25:35.country and something which is a small number of people perhaps that
:25:35. > :25:39.are extreme and bent on violence. There is a common theme of violence,
:25:39. > :25:44.but it is more important for politicians to know when these are
:25:44. > :25:48.unrepresentative. If you can quickly tell us what do you think,
:25:48. > :25:55.Ashish Ray. One of the pit bulls is they could be right wing hardline
:25:55. > :26:03.religious elements. It is a pitfall we need to be prepared for.
:26:03. > :26:07.future? Optimistic? No. At side of the West, the world is flourishing.
:26:07. > :26:12.I think the euro crisis is a worry for the whole world, but I think in
:26:12. > :26:17.a year, year-and-a-half, we will be in better times. Thank you for all