:00:04. > :00:14.it should be re-run. I will be back at 1 o'clock. It is
:00:14. > :00:33.
:00:33. > :00:38.Britain in Europe, had attached or detached is the Cameron government
:00:38. > :00:43.from the problems in the EU? Syria and the UN, plus Mitt Romney moves
:00:43. > :00:49.steps closer to the Republican nomination, but can his money by
:00:49. > :00:55.him the presidency? With me are John Fisher Burns, Mustapha
:00:55. > :01:00.Karkouti, Agnes Poirier it, and Polly Toynbee. Just before
:01:00. > :01:04.Christmas, David Cameron made himself a hero in the Conservative
:01:04. > :01:09.Party for standing up to unacceptable parts of the European
:01:09. > :01:13.project. It seemed to have him in the opinion poll. Things are more
:01:13. > :01:16.complicated. How well is the British Prime Minister handling the
:01:16. > :01:22.balancing act between what is British supporters expect and what
:01:22. > :01:26.is needed to have a real say in the running of the you? It was an on
:01:26. > :01:30.Beatle that he suddenly imposed on stopping everybody using European
:01:30. > :01:35.institutions to do what we desperately need them to do, which
:01:35. > :01:39.is to save the eurozone. Our economic figures show us on the
:01:39. > :01:45.point of absolute peril, likely to go into a double-dip recession and
:01:45. > :01:52.to have 0.3% growth this year. With all of the caveat that whiffed the
:01:52. > :02:00.eurozone collapses and things get worse, we are in for an appalling
:02:00. > :02:06.economic situation. -- a caveat that with the eurozone. Why was
:02:06. > :02:09.camera and saying, make it as difficult as possible? He was being
:02:09. > :02:15.obstreperous to please his backbenchers. Now he has had to
:02:15. > :02:20.reverse it. He was trying to stop the financial transaction tax.
:02:20. > :02:26.was not part of it. That was not part of what was being proposed. He
:02:26. > :02:31.was using the European institutions. I fit we should go ahead with it
:02:31. > :02:36.but we are not obliged. -- I think. There is no prospect of that
:02:36. > :02:41.happening across Europe except with each country individually. It would
:02:41. > :02:46.be immensely popular here. That is a separate issue. If you veto the
:02:46. > :02:51.use of institutions that would have helped us, you have to back off. He
:02:51. > :03:00.looks ridiculous. One of the big questions is how Britain is
:03:00. > :03:07.regarded, or if Britain is regarded. How is it seen in France? He was a
:03:07. > :03:10.hero with the Tory party but everywhere else, he was a flu. --
:03:10. > :03:16.through. We do not know what the British position on Europe is any
:03:16. > :03:21.more. Do the British know where they stand? I guess, they must feel
:03:21. > :03:25.as unsettled as David Cameron himself. One day he says, we will
:03:25. > :03:30.veto everything went actually, it was in the country's interests to
:03:30. > :03:36.go along with the treaty in terms of physical unity and integration.
:03:36. > :03:41.Now he says, actually, perhaps we are going to because we are still
:03:41. > :03:44.in Europe. In the end it does not help anyone. When he says that
:03:45. > :03:49.Europeans have got to get their act together and when he makes comments
:03:49. > :03:53.about Germany during war, he is not alone in thinking that. There are a
:03:53. > :04:02.lot of people who think those things. Most importantly, Europe
:04:02. > :04:08.has not got its act together on Greece, for example. When Sarkozy
:04:08. > :04:14.said, you are not even in the eurozone, so stop lecturing us, you
:04:14. > :04:20.need to say, we are going to withdraw totally form Europe. At
:04:20. > :04:23.least that would be a clear position. To be on the margin of
:04:23. > :04:29.Europe and still telling people what they should be dealing is not
:04:29. > :04:34.possible. We are going to talk about Syria. Hillary Clinton was
:04:34. > :04:38.saying this week that Europe and the US are united. When she talks
:04:38. > :04:43.about Europe, does Britain fit into any of that? Given that many
:04:43. > :04:49.Americans have no views on this whatsoever, do the American
:04:49. > :04:53.political classes care whether Britain is a big player in Europe?
:04:53. > :05:01.They have favoured the European project. They have always been
:05:01. > :05:11.unhappy with Euro-scepticism in the UK. It seems to me, Mr Sarkozy was
:05:11. > :05:14.
:05:15. > :05:20.being somewhat sharp in his remarks about Cameron. 40% of Britain's
:05:20. > :05:23.trade is with Europe. Britain is involved in the IMF. Our banks are
:05:23. > :05:30.involved. To suggest that the British Prime Minister should stay
:05:30. > :05:35.out of this, it is none of his business, is, to my mind, absurd.
:05:35. > :05:40.The other thing I would say is that Cameron his, as you said, in a
:05:40. > :05:45.difficult position. It is a difficult balancing act. The
:05:45. > :05:54.imperative for him his to make sure that Euro-scepticism in the Tory
:05:54. > :06:01.party does not rise up and bite him. He does not have a manoeuvring room.
:06:01. > :06:04.Iping he is a naturally -- naturally a Euro-sceptic. We are an
:06:04. > :06:09.integral part of the European project. We depend on them for
:06:09. > :06:13.trade. Our economy is tottering on the edge because of them. He played
:06:13. > :06:22.to them by pulling us out of the gripping, be conservative grouping
:06:22. > :06:26.in Europe. At a time when he should be in clover in Europe, when he has
:06:26. > :06:33.got Conservative governments, people who should be his natural
:06:33. > :06:38.allies, he had alienated them all. Isn't the underlying issue here, we
:06:38. > :06:46.have seen extraordinary job creation figures in the US this
:06:46. > :06:54.week. This is great for the world economy. Europe as a whole is
:06:54. > :07:03.simply not creating jobs, it is not working. It is not now, but I think
:07:03. > :07:09.it is coming. I must, if they want to get out of this crisis. -- they
:07:09. > :07:15.must. To go back to the position of Mr Cameron, although he is
:07:15. > :07:21.reversing his position now, and he is after all a politician, now he
:07:21. > :07:27.is listening to the City of London rather than his own party and
:07:27. > :07:31.backbenchers and all of that. That was his troubled, ever since he
:07:31. > :07:40.made a declaration under tremendous pressure from the Conservative
:07:40. > :07:47.Party. All of Europe's finances is here, more or less, of course plus
:07:47. > :07:52.Germany. How do you get out of this situation with the City of London?
:07:52. > :07:57.Are a final thought on Sarkozy. The fact is, Britain in front --
:07:57. > :08:01.Britain and France have a lot in common in terms of security. How
:08:01. > :08:09.much is it plain to the gallery because he is facing an imminent
:08:09. > :08:15.election? -- playing. They had this amazing relationship, Cameron and
:08:15. > :08:19.Sarkozy, but it was just a fling, a short affair. Remember them are a
:08:19. > :08:28.few months ago, in Benghazi, both of them were acclaimed by the
:08:28. > :08:37.Libyans. From there it was downhill. In December, whether Sarkozy
:08:37. > :08:42.refused -- when Sarkozy refused to shake the hand of Cameron... It is
:08:42. > :08:52.difficult to qualify -- disqualify so cosy. It is probably true that
:08:52. > :08:52.
:08:52. > :09:01.he is on the way out. He was saying, if I am not elected you will never
:09:01. > :09:05.see me again. He is a formidable campaigner, so he might be there
:09:05. > :09:09.again and they will have to patch things up.
:09:09. > :09:13.A question of what to do about Syria has been resounding around
:09:13. > :09:19.the United Nations this week. Russia is adamant that any formal
:09:19. > :09:23.moves to demand regime change will cause problems. This comes as
:09:23. > :09:28.violence at a football match in Egypt suggests that there could be
:09:28. > :09:35.trouble to impose law and order. What are the chances for peace and
:09:35. > :09:40.a democratic future in these two Arab count -- countries? The
:09:40. > :09:44.attacks in Homs, whatever the state media said, would very much like
:09:44. > :09:52.revenge and an attempt to blame dissidents for the violence against
:09:52. > :10:01.ordinary people? I think it is more like that -- than that. It is using
:10:01. > :10:06.violence to increased -- increase the fear of the regime started. It
:10:06. > :10:15.does not seem there is any other policy for the regime, apart from
:10:15. > :10:20.creating this multiple fear. For minorities, fear of the minorities,
:10:20. > :10:29.for the majorities, fear of instability, for the neighbourhoods,
:10:29. > :10:35.the fear of have it. It is more than revenge. It is peace and
:10:35. > :10:39.parcel of its strategy to control the country via the use of force
:10:39. > :10:47.and creating fear. It is not working. It is not going to work. I
:10:47. > :10:57.am surprised how the Russians have accepted the situation. They may
:10:57. > :11:05.have interests in the region, fair enough, but they have to not only -
:11:05. > :11:13.- they have to send a high-level negotiator of theirs and talk to
:11:13. > :11:18.President Assad. Are you saying it is not in Russia's long-term
:11:18. > :11:22.interests that Syrians know what is going on at the UN? That it is not
:11:22. > :11:28.in their long-term interest to do with President Assad in this way?
:11:28. > :11:32.The regime does not deserve to be called it regime. It is more of an
:11:32. > :11:39.guying, it is a family, people around it are fighting to protect
:11:39. > :11:45.their own interests. -- it is more of a gang. They are not necessarily
:11:45. > :11:54.representing large numbers. We all know that Damascus and Homs are
:11:54. > :12:00.still quiet, but this is middle- class businessmen and the nouveau
:12:00. > :12:06.riche, who were created with the regime and as a result of the
:12:06. > :12:16.regime, these people will change their position once they see where
:12:16. > :12:18.
:12:18. > :12:23.things are moving. They are not fully supportive of the regime.
:12:23. > :12:26.dilemma is what to do about it, if anything? There was a sort of
:12:26. > :12:31.euphoria about Western observers saying is in the Arab Spring
:12:31. > :12:35.wonderful? Night we are realising that revolutions are painful and
:12:35. > :12:39.cost terrible suffering. It makes us look back and say, what a
:12:39. > :12:44.miracle it was that when the Communist regime spell, they felt
:12:44. > :12:48.so peacefully? How extraordinary that South Africa managed such a
:12:48. > :12:51.peaceful transition. You look at the real pain of revelation and
:12:51. > :12:56.anyone thinks revolutions are wonderful must be thinking, how
:12:56. > :13:00.long does it take to get to stability? Lead at Libya, look at
:13:00. > :13:04.everywhere. It feels pretty miserable and those people are
:13:04. > :13:08.unbelievably brave, who are willing to fight so hard for freedom
:13:08. > :13:12.knowing it is a long and slow process. What ever written might
:13:12. > :13:22.think, it is going to be the Syrians themselves who will do it?
:13:22. > :13:28.
:13:28. > :13:34.Nobody wants to intervene in Syria, we all know this, but that is why
:13:34. > :13:39.it the Russians have overshadowed the veto, they have and sexually
:13:39. > :13:48.vetoed anything, but they should abstain -- they haven't actually
:13:48. > :13:54.vetoed anything. Bashar al-Assad is going to go. We don't know when,
:13:54. > :14:00.but the region is going to collapse. It's not because historically Syria
:14:00. > :14:08.is the last Allied in the region, but they must go, it doesn't make
:14:08. > :14:12.sense, especially when Turkey is so ready to play a role in the region.
:14:12. > :14:16.Iran is the black shadow because it is helping Bashar al-Assad, but it
:14:16. > :14:21.is terrible to see, really, especially from here, because Syria
:14:21. > :14:26.is so close and yet so far, and we are not going to do anything, and
:14:26. > :14:36.it will be much bloodier before it gets better, and both sides have
:14:36. > :14:38.
:14:38. > :14:44.gone so far. One of them has to go. I have to thoughts about it,.
:14:44. > :14:48.have to thoughts about it. The first is Mr Putin's manipulation of
:14:48. > :14:52.elections, which causes me to think how little has changed in Russia,
:14:52. > :14:56.having lived there for several years, and the fundamental
:14:56. > :15:01.disposition of the government of Russia. Their recent performance on
:15:01. > :15:06.Syria is just another example of that. Where is the principle? Where
:15:06. > :15:10.is the sense of concern for the people and for human rights? Beyond
:15:10. > :15:14.that, I would say, if we have learned anything at all from the
:15:14. > :15:18.events of the last year, and it would be a certain sense of modesty
:15:18. > :15:26.about very early limits to the influence we can bring to bear on
:15:26. > :15:32.any of this. It is way beyond our management. Yes, we should of
:15:32. > :15:36.course support un Security Council resolutions -- UN Security Council
:15:36. > :15:40.resolutions, sanctions by all means, but look at Le -- Libya, where we
:15:40. > :15:45.spent billions of dollars bombing, I lived and the bombs for two
:15:45. > :15:49.months last summer in Libya -- under the bombs, in the name of
:15:50. > :15:53.people and human rights, and what have we bought about? We now read
:15:53. > :15:57.day after day about torture and murder in the prisons of the rebels.
:15:58. > :16:04.Have we really brought about any fundamental change? So I would say
:16:04. > :16:09.we would be well cautioned to draw a lesson from... Learning the
:16:09. > :16:14.lessons of history, I would be shocked if that happened. Let stand
:16:14. > :16:20.back and see there is an internal dynamic, it is tragic, but it is
:16:20. > :16:25.entirely foolish of us to think... I am not that worried about Libya,
:16:25. > :16:29.to tell the truth. If you watch so many Libyan satellite switched
:16:29. > :16:35.sprang out after the fall of Gadaffi, the debate which is going
:16:35. > :16:40.on is so wonderful, it gives you hope that there is a huge number of
:16:40. > :16:45.people who are talking about exactly what you have said, but
:16:45. > :16:50.also, there are presenting new looks, ideas, and pressing the
:16:50. > :16:56.opposition to do something about it. Going back to Syria, finally, if I
:16:56. > :17:04.may, yes, it is difficult, we all agree that international help his
:17:04. > :17:11.shortcoming, -- is a shortcoming, but I think if Iran continues its
:17:11. > :17:14.support to President a sad, in light of the glowing influence in
:17:14. > :17:20.Iraq itself -- President Assad, this is very frightening for a lot
:17:20. > :17:27.of people in the region. Iranian influence in Iraq.
:17:27. > :17:31.should invite Turkey to come into Syria with other forces, those who
:17:31. > :17:39.are willing to come, to counterbalance the Iranian
:17:39. > :17:44.influence in Iraq -- in Syria. Otherwise, the third alternative,
:17:44. > :17:48.this beautiful country will be left to disintegrate. You are talking
:17:48. > :17:54.about 23 million people, which is very tragic, I think, if that is to
:17:54. > :17:58.happen. Let's move on because Mitt Romney handsomely won the Florida
:17:58. > :18:02.primary over his only significant rival Newt Gingrich this week but
:18:02. > :18:06.only after spelling -- spending millions of dollars on negative
:18:06. > :18:10.advertising. What do we make of this Republican campaign and what
:18:10. > :18:15.kind of fight will it come down to in the autumn? It looks as if
:18:15. > :18:19.Romney is now the pre-eminent candidate again, but he has still
:18:19. > :18:24.not sealed the deal. When we heard about US employment figures
:18:24. > :18:27.yesterday, it made me think that the wisest thing to say about these
:18:27. > :18:35.elections is what we heard all those years ago during the first
:18:35. > :18:39.Clinton election, it's the economy, stupid. If the economy begins a
:18:39. > :18:45.serious recovery, particularly jobs, which has been a real political
:18:45. > :18:50.issue, then a Obama for all his weak performance in the opinion
:18:50. > :18:57.polls, up against a rather dubious crew of Republican opponents, I
:18:57. > :19:01.would have thought would have a relatively easy, or easier ride
:19:01. > :19:04.back to the White House. If the economy doesn't improve, of course,
:19:04. > :19:08.who knows? But the Republicans are not doing themselves a huge amount
:19:09. > :19:13.of favours with the nature of the campaign being conducted. I think
:19:13. > :19:18.the Americans are very disappointed, and in some respects alienated by
:19:18. > :19:23.the campaign, and by these vast amounts of money. There we have
:19:23. > :19:28.seen before, and thank God for it, money does not necessarily decide
:19:28. > :19:32.elections in the United States. Prospero. If you are not credible,
:19:32. > :19:35.it doesn't matter how much you spend. Having a lot of money
:19:36. > :19:40.probably helps. It is not insignificant, but with the
:19:40. > :19:43.negative some of these Republican candidates carry, it seems to me
:19:43. > :19:48.that for all the gigantic sums of money, I mean they are spending
:19:48. > :19:52.more in single campaigns for the primaries in Florida, for example,
:19:52. > :19:57.than political parties in the UK spend on an entire general election.
:19:58. > :20:01.It is interesting, this one big theme that comes through Western
:20:01. > :20:06.demand -- politics at the moment, fairness, what is there, how the
:20:06. > :20:10.super rich pay their way, which is the French campaign as well. This
:20:10. > :20:14.is a big discussion people are having all over the place. That is
:20:14. > :20:20.right, it is, but to go back, we are not talking about the
:20:20. > :20:25.presidential election in the US, but the primaries, which is often
:20:25. > :20:35.not covered in Europe, because, look at the negative ads, for
:20:35. > :20:41.instance. I want to urge everyone to read Democracy On America again
:20:41. > :20:48.because he talked about America being like children. Did you see
:20:48. > :20:58.the one way Gingrich was telling us that Romney was the worst candidate
:20:58. > :21:05.possible, and in the end, it ended with "and he speaks French!".
:21:05. > :21:08.LAUGHTER what more do you want? Jon Huntsman speaks Chinese. It is
:21:08. > :21:13.not just speaking French but foreign languages which is dubious.
:21:13. > :21:18.When you are from Europe it looks so silly. To me it is not serious,
:21:18. > :21:25.the US primaries, and besides, as he was saying, a Obama book will be
:21:25. > :21:29.re-elected, thank God. Is he? to delight for parade of Republican
:21:29. > :21:33.fruitcakes exposed to the world -- delight for parade. You couldn't
:21:33. > :21:38.hope for a better row of complete lunatics. Terrifying, and you are
:21:38. > :21:42.not quite sure if you want to Democrat to win, where the want the
:21:42. > :21:46.very maddest of them to be selected to make them least electable, or
:21:46. > :21:53.whether horror of horrors, Newt Gingrich might wonder -- end up in
:21:53. > :21:57.the White House which is terrifying. At this time in the world economy.
:21:57. > :22:03.It has been one of the moments of the greatest division across the
:22:03. > :22:06.Atlantic between Europe and America, way you look at American elections
:22:06. > :22:10.with fascinated horror -- where you look. We push ourselves a little
:22:10. > :22:15.bit closer as we spend more and more on elections, but the idea of
:22:15. > :22:21.that kind of attack advertising, spending millions on it, that is
:22:21. > :22:28.not the European way yet. We in the Middle-East including Iran and
:22:28. > :22:34.Israel as well, not only that, find these campaigns always through the
:22:35. > :22:39.eyes of, if you like, US-Israel, Basie ambitions rather than the
:22:39. > :22:46.money spent. Newt Gingrich said the Palestinians were... He cancelled
:22:47. > :22:52.them totally, how can you cancel an issue? That is lunatic, in a way.
:22:52. > :22:58.And then Romney In response said, in his first ever visit overseas if
:22:58. > :23:04.he is elected said it would be to Israel. You know, to campaign on
:23:04. > :23:10.this basis, to induce boats, is totally ridiculous, as the Arab
:23:10. > :23:18.people see it -- induce boats so for the Middle-East, the focus of
:23:18. > :23:23.that, they feel better with Obama, even though he has done nothing yet.
:23:23. > :23:29.Does a barman need to shake things up? As you say, the economy may be
:23:29. > :23:33.the determinant -- a bummer. Some people may feel Joe Bighton as
:23:33. > :23:36.vice-president has been dull and it is time to move him on. We know
:23:36. > :23:39.Hillary Clinton doesn't want to stay at the State Department. She
:23:39. > :23:44.would be the perfect vice- presidential candidate, wouldn't
:23:44. > :23:50.she? She would, I think she has more of a job now than she would as
:23:50. > :23:54.vice-president. Normally, that is the job we were waiting for the
:23:54. > :23:58.White House. Hopefully by the election, but Hillary Clinton will
:23:58. > :24:03.be pushing 70 if she's so says vice-president in a bomber's second
:24:03. > :24:10.term. -- if she serves as vice- president in President Obama's
:24:10. > :24:14.second term. She may be wondering if she can make a bigger mark as
:24:14. > :24:17.Secretary of State or vice- president. The current vice-
:24:17. > :24:22.president's experience would suggest that Secretary of State is
:24:22. > :24:26.better. The other interesting story this week was, who pays what in tax,
:24:26. > :24:30.given the amount that they earn, which is quite astonishing given
:24:30. > :24:34.Weir had been talking about bad as bonuses and what is fair and unfair
:24:34. > :24:38.-- given we have been talking. will be disastrous for Romney when
:24:38. > :24:43.we come to the real election campaign to have paid 13 per cent
:24:43. > :24:49.on $45 million, 13 per cent, while every hard-working family in
:24:49. > :24:56.America pays their proper taxes up front. I think that will be a fatal
:24:56. > :24:59.blow, particularly at this particular stand by -- time, a time
:24:59. > :25:04.of... Americans may be feeling they celebrate the rich, but not at this
:25:04. > :25:08.time. But is it for Dateline London this week. We're back Centre next