:00:01. > :00:11.released without charge. There will be a full news bulletin
:00:11. > :00:24.
:00:24. > :00:28.at one o'clock. Now it's time for Hello and welcome to Dateline
:00:28. > :00:29.London. The future of the euro and the Greek bailout in the balance -
:00:29. > :00:32.yet again. Should sanctions be eased on
:00:32. > :00:35.Zimbabwe? And is it anyone but Mitt Romney in
:00:35. > :00:37.the US presidential elections? My guests today are Tererai
:00:37. > :00:40.Karimakwenda of SW Radio Africa, Anthony Faiola of the Washington
:00:40. > :00:49.Post, Nisreen Malik of The Guardiam and Adam Raphael of Transport
:00:49. > :00:52.Magazine. There are signs of a mood change
:00:52. > :00:55.within the European Union over what to do about Greece. After months of
:00:55. > :00:58.saying a Greek default would be unthinkable, the German finance
:00:58. > :01:02.minister this week appeared to be more relaxed at the prospect - amid
:01:02. > :01:06.some fears in Germany that Greece could be a bottomless pit. So are
:01:06. > :01:14.we on the verge of a second Greek bailout - or another kind of euro
:01:14. > :01:21.crisis? People suggest it will go ahead on Monday, but there are
:01:21. > :01:25.doubts. I think it will go ahead, but I do not think actually,
:01:25. > :01:29.whatever the financial bits, the fact is that conditions that are
:01:29. > :01:35.being put on the Greek people are such that no democratic Government
:01:35. > :01:41.is going to survive. You have half of young people unemployed, wages
:01:41. > :01:46.being reduced by 25 or 30 %. Can you imagine any Government
:01:46. > :01:50.surviving those conditions? Whatever the EU fiddles around and
:01:50. > :01:56.I am sure this next bit will go through, the real issue is how it
:01:56. > :02:02.it is going to be received by the Greek people. We have already had
:02:02. > :02:08.riots, but I think it will get much worse and in the end, either the
:02:08. > :02:13.for any Greek Government will fall and the EU will see, I think, an
:02:13. > :02:17.exit from the euro, because that is the only way the Greek economy will
:02:17. > :02:22.revive. It is not likely to revive under the present stringent
:02:22. > :02:32.measures. I can Germany has a lot of responsibility for what is going
:02:32. > :02:33.
:02:33. > :02:40.on. The conditions even under Weimar in Germany, were better than
:02:40. > :02:43.the will be for people increase. The idea of having a German
:02:43. > :02:49.supervising the Greek people. Quite rightly, the politicians increase
:02:49. > :02:58.say this is totally intolerable. I have a great deal of sympathy for
:02:58. > :03:01.what creases going through. I remember the IMF in 1976 year, and
:03:01. > :03:05.they remember the day when Denis Healey was able to tell them to get
:03:05. > :03:11.out. And those out nothing like the conditions being imposed on the
:03:11. > :03:16.Greeks. You get a sense no one knows what they're doing in this
:03:16. > :03:20.situation. When they gave them the first bail-out, it was assumed it
:03:20. > :03:26.would put them on a path that would take them out of the situation, but
:03:26. > :03:30.here we are again the very next year. This is the second bail-out
:03:30. > :03:35.in two years, so you get a sense no one really understands the forces
:03:35. > :03:39.at work here and that they seem to be improvising. The country has
:03:39. > :03:45.been in recession for at least five years, so how do they expect them
:03:45. > :03:49.to be able to pay back the money? I get a sense that no one understands
:03:49. > :03:56.what is involved. You have been reporting from
:03:56. > :04:00.Greece? Absolutely. The situation there is fascinating. Even if the
:04:00. > :04:04.Greeks did default and leave the euro, there has been an argument
:04:04. > :04:11.make that this is what they need to do. People have looked at the
:04:11. > :04:16.Argentine example. Argentine air, after their it defaults, after a
:04:16. > :04:24.year of deep pain, they were able to start paying again. But the
:04:24. > :04:32.Greek situation is much more complicated. They do not have a
:04:32. > :04:35.base it is jump-start from. Because they're in the EU, the cannot
:04:35. > :04:41.immediately start raising import tariffs. It is such a complex
:04:41. > :04:46.situation. At the same time, this situation there, the social
:04:46. > :04:50.upheaval is getting worse and worse. When I was there, you could see
:04:50. > :04:56.that homelessness was increasing, HIV rates were increasing, the
:04:56. > :05:01.social fabric is becoming on wind in the country. Do you agree that
:05:01. > :05:04.no democracy can survive this? There will be elections in April,
:05:04. > :05:09.and everyone is assuming the majority party will be thrown
:05:09. > :05:13.white-out. That is a really good point. It is a difficult question
:05:13. > :05:19.to answer, but I think it is true that the Germans are imposing
:05:19. > :05:23.impossible goals on a Greek Government. If they had followed
:05:23. > :05:27.the austerity straitjacket of the letter of the loch, Athens would
:05:27. > :05:34.probably be in complete cinders by now, rather than the flames we have
:05:34. > :05:39.seen. If they do all the right things, everything expected of them,
:05:39. > :05:47.by Twenty20 after another eight years of pain, they will still have
:05:47. > :05:51.their GDP to debt ratio of 125 %, which is completely unsustainable.
:05:51. > :05:57.The important points here are that a financial: some station required
:05:57. > :06:03.has never happened in economic history of the world. --
:06:03. > :06:07.consolidation. Also changed the political economical to of the
:06:08. > :06:11.country, it is not a numbers question increase, it is a
:06:11. > :06:17.political culture question about people paying taxes, the way the
:06:17. > :06:21.private sector is very moulded into the public sector. But the second
:06:21. > :06:26.thing which is fascinating, and I think there has been a sea change
:06:26. > :06:30.over the past four months, is that Greece leaving the EU is no longer
:06:30. > :06:35.an unmentionable heresy, it is something people are talking about
:06:35. > :06:40.in practical terms. If and when it does happen, this is when it is
:06:40. > :06:44.expected to happen. This is because Germany and others feel the risk of
:06:44. > :06:50.contagion is less severe and the firewalls can prevent contagion
:06:50. > :06:58.happening. Also Germany is much happier to throw its weight around
:06:58. > :07:05.without the fear of bringing up the ghosts of 1939. I think the varying
:07:05. > :07:12.trysting point was the Polish Prime Minister who said he fears German
:07:12. > :07:16.lack of action rather than German intervention. From Poland of all
:07:16. > :07:23.countries. There is a general political boldness and a general
:07:23. > :07:30.lack of fear of Greece falling out. Less than there was.
:07:30. > :07:33.It may be that the eurozone can survive without Greece. But in
:07:33. > :07:37.terms of Germany, is part of it that the Germans do not really
:07:37. > :07:42.quite know what they want. They would like the problem to go way,
:07:42. > :07:50.they would like to deal with France in sorting it out, but actually in
:07:50. > :07:55.almost every philosophical sense, it they have been dithering and
:07:55. > :07:59.Angela Merkel has been dithering. She does not have an easy task, but
:07:59. > :08:03.they really do come from a position which I think other Europeans are
:08:03. > :08:08.beginning to find more and more difficult. If Greece does Kohl, the
:08:08. > :08:14.real issue then is contagion. Then people will bet against Portugal,
:08:14. > :08:20.against Spain, there will be huge market shifts and the question is
:08:20. > :08:28.will those countries now be vulnerable? I do not think one can
:08:28. > :08:34.underplay the consequences of a creek default. Very, very serious.
:08:34. > :08:38.The politics of Germany, frankly, outside of Germany, are very
:08:38. > :08:44.difficult to understand. We have a coalition here, but they have a
:08:44. > :08:48.very different kind of coalition. Angela Merkel rides it brilliantly,
:08:48. > :08:54.but nevertheless, her hands are very tight.
:08:54. > :09:04.One thing that strikes me, talking to Germans and German politicians,
:09:04. > :09:06.
:09:06. > :09:13.is that behind it will, Germany could face huge problems if there
:09:13. > :09:18.are drop-outs from the euro. They might not be able to have their
:09:18. > :09:23.export-led recovery. Absolutely, it is fascinating. If you look at the
:09:23. > :09:27.German relation with the rest of the eurozone, it is almost like the
:09:27. > :09:31.relationship between the United States and China. The Germans have
:09:31. > :09:35.a massive surplus when it comes to trade with the other countries are
:09:35. > :09:39.matters one reason why they have been able to feed their economy.
:09:39. > :09:46.They would risk that if you started seeing disintegration of the
:09:46. > :09:50.eurozone. I think that is one reason why you see Angela Merkel
:09:50. > :09:53.and her Finance Minister and others arguing that default is an option.
:09:53. > :10:00.She has basically maintained a line that this would be bad for Germany
:10:00. > :10:03.and bad for Europe. I was reading somewhere, they were saying the
:10:03. > :10:06.birthplace of democracy is the one place where people have no choice
:10:06. > :10:13.any more. There is no democracy, they're being told exactly what to
:10:13. > :10:16.do. That picks up something you were alluding to earlier. When I
:10:16. > :10:23.talk to politicians, there is a sense of real despair, because they
:10:23. > :10:27.cannot really get out of it. There is despair, but also
:10:27. > :10:33.isolation. You feel the political class has become isolated from the
:10:33. > :10:38.people in Greece. The current Prime Minister has not been elected. The
:10:38. > :10:42.Government policies are being imposed from outside. So you have a
:10:42. > :10:46.three-tiered disconnection, you have the troika, the Government and
:10:46. > :10:51.then the people, none of which is talking to the other. I was hearing
:10:51. > :10:56.reports from grace about higher politicians are hiding from the
:10:56. > :10:59.people. They're not giving interviews, not allowing certain
:10:59. > :11:06.features to come out into the media. They feel they are not answerable
:11:06. > :11:09.any more. They cannot give any answers in the short term. What is
:11:09. > :11:16.interesting is that all great parties have signed up to their
:11:16. > :11:21.demands. Will a change of Government help? Will the new party
:11:21. > :11:25.be able to survive the sort of conditions that are being imposed?
:11:25. > :11:31.It is very difficult from outside to judge another country's politics.
:11:31. > :11:37.I would just be amazed. The IMF would never dream of imposing such
:11:37. > :11:41.harsh conditions on a country which is receiving aid. Nothing like that
:11:41. > :11:47.happened in Britain. I do not believe anywhere has ever imposed
:11:47. > :11:50.such tough conditions. While the world's attention has
:11:50. > :11:53.been focused on the Arab Spring and the overthrow of ageing dictators -
:11:53. > :11:56.one of Africa's most notorious - Robert Mugabe - remains hopeful
:11:56. > :12:02.that sanctions on his country might be eased. Should they be? And what
:12:02. > :12:09.are conditions like now in Zimbabwe? It is Robert Mugabe's
:12:09. > :12:13.18th birthday. Celebrating in style. He is supposed to be spending �1
:12:13. > :12:17.million for this benefit. He remains the only candidate the
:12:17. > :12:23.party has put forth for the next elections, at age 88 and having
:12:23. > :12:28.been in power since 1980. Yesterday, the EU eased restrictions, those
:12:28. > :12:33.targeted sanctions placed on him and his allies. They removed 51
:12:33. > :12:39.names from the list of those whose assets were frozen and who have
:12:39. > :12:43.travel restrictions. On that list, is the foreign minister and the
:12:43. > :12:48.justice minister. If you look at this situation on the ground, those
:12:48. > :12:53.sanctions were imposed because there were human rights abuses
:12:53. > :12:58.going on. Nothing has changed. This week, a group of female activists
:12:58. > :13:02.were pulverised by the police with batons sticks for just marching on
:13:02. > :13:08.Valentine's Day, giving her a love cards. Not allowed to do that in
:13:08. > :13:12.Zimbabwe. The police came down on them, made arrests and bashed them.
:13:12. > :13:17.People are still in jail on trumped-up charges, politicians are
:13:17. > :13:21.being arrested on trumped-up charges. Foreign newspapers have
:13:21. > :13:26.been threatened, if they do not register, they will not be allowed
:13:27. > :13:35.to work in Zimbabwe. And a group of NGOs were told they could not
:13:35. > :13:43.Are the sanctions working? They are hurting the people but not the
:13:43. > :13:49.political classes. There are no real sanctions on Zimbabwe plus a.
:13:49. > :13:54.These were targeted restrictions on Mugabe and his close allies. Assets
:13:54. > :14:04.were frozen and there were travel restrictions, they couldn't go to
:14:04. > :14:08.America or Europe. So there are no sanctions. But Robert Mugabe is
:14:08. > :14:13.playing the card. But it is not true. Is it hopeless for outsiders
:14:13. > :14:17.to do anything? South Africa is supposed to have taken the lead.
:14:17. > :14:23.Then Nigeria was tempted to do some things but nothing has happened.
:14:23. > :14:27.The older I become the more ageist I become. It is absurd a man of 88
:14:27. > :14:34.should be there. It sends a very bad signal, this relaxation of
:14:34. > :14:38.sanctions. On the other hand, you have got to deal with Zimbabwe, I
:14:38. > :14:43.think, in an African context. I don't think Europeans or Americans
:14:43. > :14:49.will have much sway. It has got to be done throughout Africa, however
:14:49. > :14:54.infuriating it might be. It has been a sad disappointment so far,
:14:54. > :14:57.but if we are going to have any part to play, it has got to be
:14:57. > :15:02.through African countries. I am a bit constricted about this because
:15:02. > :15:09.I am from Sudan and there are sanctions on Sudan, quite severe
:15:09. > :15:13.sanctions. I see your point that there are not any sanctions on
:15:13. > :15:16.Zimbabwe as an economy, but I think a certain isolation of the
:15:16. > :15:20.political class from the international community helps them
:15:20. > :15:24.entrench even further. I kind of seat where people are coming from
:15:24. > :15:27.when they talk about easing sanctions, especially if they
:15:27. > :15:33.haven't worked, especially if they have not been severe enough for
:15:33. > :15:37.people to affect regime changed. People think that if you get the
:15:37. > :15:40.government and members of the government to engage with the
:15:40. > :15:43.international community by coaxing and diplomacy, maybe you can get
:15:43. > :15:48.some kind of incremental change happening, because in Sudan that is
:15:48. > :15:53.the case. The government is so isolated, they have nothing to lose.
:15:53. > :15:57.Therefore, it becomes a catch 22. Such severe sanctions are imposed,
:15:57. > :16:03.the government becomes cut off from the rest of the world and has
:16:03. > :16:09.nothing to lose, and therefore becomes more dictatorial. I can see
:16:09. > :16:14.where the view is coming from. is interesting. These are very
:16:14. > :16:19.personally targeted sanctions. You are not creating an embargo. In
:16:19. > :16:23.fact, understanding is that looking at the US Embassy website for
:16:23. > :16:31.Zimbabwe, they are heralding the fact that trade has increased
:16:31. > :16:40.between the US and Zimbabwe. This is to prevent Mugabe from shopping
:16:40. > :16:47.at Harrods. Or Mrs Mugabe. Exactly. To that extent, you would imagine
:16:47. > :16:54.that it would have not had a big effect. But they want negotiations
:16:54. > :16:58.which is why they have lifted it. But I guess sanctions are always a
:16:58. > :17:04.hard sell. The problem with some Bob Quick is that you are dealing
:17:04. > :17:08.with a regime that is very clever. -- the problem with Zimbabwe. If
:17:08. > :17:13.this was being done by a white government, let's go back a
:17:13. > :17:20.generation to Ian Smith, the whole world was up in arms. Apartheid,
:17:20. > :17:24.apartheid. Let's go and help. But it is being done by a black
:17:24. > :17:29.President, so it is hands off because Robert Mugabe played the
:17:29. > :17:37.race card, very cleverly. It is an African problem. There is a Jacob
:17:37. > :17:40.Zuma's exact words. You talk about people Valentine -- you talk about
:17:40. > :17:43.people handing a Valentine's cards and been beaten up. What about the
:17:43. > :17:49.opposition, which some people feel they have sold out because they
:17:49. > :17:56.have given a degree of respectability to this democratic
:17:56. > :18:00.process in Zimbabwe? The MDC, by joining the coalition government,
:18:00. > :18:02.they create another layer of problems because when you talk
:18:02. > :18:08.about the Zimbabwe and the government, they are a part of it.
:18:08. > :18:12.So when they are beaten and arrested, and they are, arrested,
:18:12. > :18:17.thrown in jail, they are being prevented from holding rallies. The
:18:17. > :18:22.actual Prime Minister himself is not respected by the army. They
:18:22. > :18:27.don't salute him. He cannot share government meetings. At nothing
:18:27. > :18:34.happens. He continues to make unilateral decisions. Joining the
:18:34. > :18:40.coalition, they say, to stop the violence, and it was a way to
:18:40. > :18:45.stabilise the economy, to give people a bit of a reprieve. But now
:18:45. > :18:50.they are a part of the government, and that is a problem.
:18:50. > :18:53.Pew Research Prince Rick Santorum, now at least neck-and-neck with
:18:53. > :18:59.Mitt Romney for the Republican nomination to challenge President
:18:59. > :19:05.Obama. Is he a credible set -- candidate or is it anyone but Mitt
:19:05. > :19:10.Romney moment? What do you make of what is going on in your country?
:19:10. > :19:18.Mitt Romney is having a hard time as a front runner. Rick Santorum
:19:18. > :19:22.initially surprised many during the Iowa caucus, and then you see after
:19:22. > :19:27.Florida, Mitt Romney set the record straight again and said, I am the
:19:27. > :19:30.front runner. Since, we have seen Rick Santorum emerge as this might
:19:30. > :19:36.of bright candidate, one that is appealing to the cap --
:19:36. > :19:42.Conservatives, and Mitt Romney is having a hard time attracting. It
:19:42. > :19:49.is a difficult position for him be partly because he has to combat
:19:49. > :19:52.this image... He has to presenters of just as conservative as Rick
:19:52. > :19:57.Santorum in order to fight this fight, and that is not where he
:19:57. > :20:03.wants to be when it comes to the actual election against Obama.
:20:03. > :20:06.is far too right wing. Exactly. He jeopardises the middle voters
:20:06. > :20:14.forced to up I think he has a bigger problem in that he is very
:20:14. > :20:18.wealthy. And he is failing to connect with the hinterland of the
:20:18. > :20:24.Republican voter. In Michigan, it has been interesting, where Rick
:20:24. > :20:30.Santorum has come out with, my father was a coal miner, and this
:20:30. > :20:34.sort of upper working class schticks. And it has worked. And
:20:34. > :20:39.Mick Rollitt is struggling because he has a very lucrative career in
:20:39. > :20:44.private equity. And his father before him had capital. Especially
:20:44. > :20:51.in this current climate, which is very anti- banking, he is not an
:20:51. > :20:54.oil magnet. He is a financier. say this is coming out within the
:20:54. > :20:59.Republican Party, so you can imagine that if he is the candidate,
:20:59. > :21:03.come the autumn, this kind of class thing is going to play very hard.
:21:03. > :21:09.We have seen some other Republicans saying, this will be the guy that
:21:09. > :21:15.will give you the pink slip. Absolutely. This is playing out a -
:21:15. > :21:23.- against the backdrop of the occupier Wall Street, and 81%
:21:23. > :21:28.environment. -- and the 1% environment. That is where Rick
:21:28. > :21:35.Santorum is coming in. I do not disagree, but is he a credible
:21:36. > :21:39.candidate? The answer is no. This man is a par bright win up to. I
:21:39. > :21:44.accept I am approaching this as a white European, but nevertheless,
:21:44. > :21:49.this man is totally unelectable. He may be electable in Republican
:21:49. > :21:53.primaries, but this is a sign. This is why American politics is
:21:53. > :21:57.fascinating. America has gone collectively mad in this Republican
:21:57. > :22:03.race. It is extraordinary to European eyes they could put
:22:03. > :22:09.forward such a bunch of nutcases to try to, you know, contest for the
:22:09. > :22:12.most serious political post in the world. Obama must be laughing, that
:22:12. > :22:18.is all I can say. He is loving every day of the year. Rick
:22:18. > :22:23.Santorum is not credible. He may win in Michigan because of all the
:22:23. > :22:28.sensible things you have said, but, my goodness. Poor America. I would
:22:28. > :22:33.have to agree. I love the language she is using in describing him as a
:22:33. > :22:37.nut. But you have a situation where the Republicans do not have much of
:22:37. > :22:42.a choice in terms of candidates this time around. I cannot see
:22:42. > :22:47.anyone strong enough to challenge Obama. You are talking about the
:22:47. > :22:51.religious fanaticism, and all of the Mormon background, and that
:22:52. > :22:55.will never win in the general election. As you say, it may play
:22:55. > :22:59.in certain states where Republicans and Conservatives have the majority,
:22:59. > :23:06.but when it comes to the National Stakes, they will never produce a
:23:06. > :23:09.candidate going against Obama. he will be running against whoever
:23:09. > :23:13.wins the Republican nomination, but he will be running against the
:23:13. > :23:19.economy. What it comes down to is what is the American economy going
:23:19. > :23:23.to look like at that time people are going to the ballot boxes? I
:23:23. > :23:28.mean, Americans, you know, they will make a decision based on their
:23:28. > :23:38.pocketbooks. They always do. That said, party affiliations come
:23:38. > :23:38.
:23:38. > :23:44.through. And polls suggest some Torran -- and polls suggest Rick
:23:44. > :23:48.Santorum going forward. The Republicans are having a back and
:23:48. > :23:52.forth and creating ill-feeling and ill-will. That is exactly what the
:23:52. > :23:56.Democrats want. How can this big party destroy itself in this way?
:23:56. > :24:00.cannot remember any time in American politics we have had a big
:24:00. > :24:06.party taken over by people who really are not representative of
:24:06. > :24:11.the election. But to have a huge purchase on these primaries. It is
:24:11. > :24:15.worrying and bizarre. Isn't it also true, for instance, Arnold
:24:15. > :24:18.Schwarzenegger up in California. If he had to go through the usual
:24:18. > :24:22.process, because it was a special election, he would probably not
:24:22. > :24:28.have been the Republican candidate, because he would have been seen too
:24:28. > :24:33.far in the centre. There is a problem here. The tea-party and
:24:33. > :24:37.their influence remains strong, especially when it comes to the
:24:37. > :24:41.base of supporting candidates. That said, looking at this from a
:24:41. > :24:49.European point of view, you have to understand America is more
:24:49. > :24:56.conservative. I understand that. Goldwater and Reagan, they were not
:24:56. > :25:00.like this lot. These people had a real resonance. I am being unfair
:25:00. > :25:05.to you, but I want to test you to say, is this a moment of madness
:25:05. > :25:09.for America, or is it part of the great American political process?
:25:09. > :25:13.There would be Democrats that agree with you.