:00:35. > :00:43.Welcome to Dateline London. There are to international conferences
:00:43. > :00:53.this week looking at two problems. So they are and Somalia. We have
:00:53. > :00:54.
:00:54. > :00:58.some guests with us today. Welcome to all of you. Tunis was
:00:58. > :01:02.the setting for the latest attempt to tackle the situation in Serbia.
:01:02. > :01:06.This week, hundreds of civilians died and two prominent foreign
:01:06. > :01:15.journalists were killed. There is once again a sense of urgency but
:01:15. > :01:20.also frustration. You knew that said journalist.
:01:20. > :01:25.They are being so brittle in any case. They are targeting civilian
:01:25. > :01:32.houses, which has people know, they do not have had -- fighter's in
:01:32. > :01:36.them. She was always there, calling what they are doing. They get very
:01:36. > :01:42.annoyed about Western journalists in particular, and of course, she
:01:42. > :01:49.was American which is another reason to dislike her. Indeed, I
:01:49. > :01:53.was told that there were spreading rumours that she was a Zionist Jew,
:01:53. > :02:03.which as far as I knew, and I did know her and loved her dearly, she
:02:03. > :02:12.
:02:13. > :02:18.was another any such thing. -- she was never. I think the two deaths
:02:18. > :02:24.sharpen up the comments that are going on. Hillary is being very
:02:24. > :02:29.fierce in her, then that -- in her condemnation. That might partly be
:02:29. > :02:39.because of Murray. A sentimental thing. I had been crying for about
:02:39. > :02:43.24 hours after her death. Although many people have died, and
:02:43. > :02:48.we cannot say that two Westerners being killed has changed things in
:02:48. > :02:54.Syria, it certainly has changed the international view.
:02:54. > :03:03.I think that is right. The context is ever so dreadful and this is a
:03:03. > :03:07.kind of exclamation points rather than a whole paragraph. It is a
:03:07. > :03:13.combination of Western journalists and Syrians in Homs who are getting
:03:13. > :03:22.this news out to the world in a way that was completely impossible when
:03:22. > :03:25.President Assad's father massacred so many people 20 years ago. Seles
:03:25. > :03:29.will start with all the complexities of how do you take
:03:29. > :03:34.down this regime. The army is fighting back, there are snipers
:03:34. > :03:38.who are killing civilians and they are selling these places. You
:03:38. > :03:46.cannot wave a wand and make this go away. You see the frustration at
:03:46. > :03:52.the conference. Hillary Clinton's words, particularly against Russia
:03:52. > :03:58.and China, at that conference, it was very strong language. It seems
:03:58. > :04:02.to be a move forward from the Americans being more proactive.
:04:02. > :04:08.You do need rush-hour. They were not even there. Time was not there.
:04:08. > :04:18.I think one of the things the journalist dead, if you beat her
:04:18. > :04:18.
:04:18. > :04:26.last piece, and see her reporting, there are so many people in denial.
:04:26. > :04:34.Are reporting was so... You were almost there if you read her latest
:04:34. > :04:37.piece in the Times. It was a reporting. And it was the
:04:37. > :04:42.ordinary people she really cared about.
:04:42. > :04:46.I think Russia might have changed it to in a little bit but
:04:46. > :04:51.ultimately there is still more than residual support for the regime. We
:04:51. > :04:56.are not seeing what we saw in Libya where you stop defections from
:04:56. > :05:01.government ministers, trying to escape, or diplomats saying they
:05:01. > :05:07.did not want to represent the regime any more. It seems to be
:05:07. > :05:13.more of localised in the North, and we are not seeing much happening in
:05:13. > :05:16.Damascus. Given the military power of President Assad's regime and the
:05:16. > :05:23.fact he is being backed by these countries like Russia with arms and
:05:23. > :05:27.military might, where can you go from here? Europe cannot too much.
:05:27. > :05:33.They can try to convince the Assad regime to negotiate to a certain
:05:33. > :05:37.extent. This idea that we can over pro-IRA seen just like that and
:05:37. > :05:43.then we will have democracy flourish, the whole is -- history
:05:43. > :05:50.of the world from South America, to Eastern Europe, and Africa, teaches
:05:50. > :05:55.us that any successful process of regime change requires compromises
:05:56. > :06:00.with the established regime. It is not pretty but the world is not
:06:00. > :06:10.black and white. They need to compromise with Passat and he has
:06:10. > :06:10.
:06:11. > :06:16.to give some way. -- Assad. He has to give away some more and agree to
:06:16. > :06:21.a ceasefire and that should be the priority. But this idea that we
:06:21. > :06:30.will armed the Serbian Resistance, the proposal of Saudi Arabia are,
:06:30. > :06:35.not exactly oracles of democracy in the Middle East, I think the
:06:35. > :06:40.dangers of this kind of steady military and harsh language towards
:06:40. > :06:46.Syria is more of a hindrance than a help. Do you think that there is
:06:46. > :06:50.room for negotiation or compromise? I cannot see be a sad clan
:06:50. > :06:57.negotiating at all. They have now decided this is a fight to the debt.
:06:57. > :07:07.They know that if they lose, they will be executed or lynched. As far
:07:07. > :07:11.
:07:11. > :07:17.as I know, none of them have fled abroad. What really worries me is
:07:17. > :07:20.because the pictures we see are so horrific, and we are not educated
:07:20. > :07:28.about the Middle East and particularly so the a, we think
:07:28. > :07:33.that everybody in Syria is against the a SAT regime. What is
:07:33. > :07:41.incontrovertible is that almost one-third of Syrians are minority
:07:41. > :07:50.groups and they are terrified of the Passat regime is over from,
:07:51. > :08:00.what will happen to them afterwards? -- if the Assad regime
:08:01. > :08:04.
:08:04. > :08:10.is overthrown. A subset of his clan control 70% of the army. They have
:08:10. > :08:20.already been targeted for rid bench attacks so they will not go. The
:08:20. > :08:34.
:08:34. > :08:38.conscripts may not go. -- revenge attacks. I feel that if we go in
:08:38. > :08:43.and darned these people, we are insane. Look at what is happening
:08:44. > :08:48.in Libya. The National Transitional Council or whatever it calls itself
:08:48. > :08:54.cannot control the heavily-armed militias who are now wreaking havoc
:08:54. > :08:58.because they are fighting for power, and Amnesty gave about the hair
:08:58. > :09:06.raising a report about what they are doing, torturing other militia
:09:06. > :09:16.members, etc. And I feel the offals thing is, you do not like to do
:09:16. > :09:18.
:09:18. > :09:28.this, call me when it is all over. -- awful. Do not harm them. Call me
:09:28. > :09:28.
:09:28. > :09:34.when it is over. Is the White House taking a stronger stance now?
:09:34. > :09:38.seem to be leaning forward. They seemed to say that somehow,
:09:38. > :09:43.somewhere they will get arms. There is evidence that there are racy
:09:43. > :09:48.members moving their families and their money, preparing for the end.
:09:48. > :09:54.Certainly not on the scale of Libya and it took a long time for Gaddafi
:09:54. > :10:01.to go even after these defections. They are trying to get a break.
:10:01. > :10:11.They want humanitarian aid to come in. There will be our main of some
:10:11. > :10:13.
:10:13. > :10:16.rebel groups. Some stuff is said to be smuggled in. And there is
:10:16. > :10:26.monitoring of all of this in great detail and I do not think there
:10:26. > :10:27.
:10:27. > :10:35.will be drawn attacks. -- drone attacks. Republicans will want to
:10:35. > :10:40.make Obama look week in an election year. I want to widen this issue to
:10:40. > :10:44.the whole region. I am thinking of Iran in the equation. Give us an
:10:44. > :10:49.overview of where you think this will lead?
:10:49. > :10:54.Iran is one of the supporters. It is their only ally. They have no
:10:54. > :11:04.others. With all that is going on in Iran, they are clinging to said
:11:04. > :11:06.
:11:06. > :11:16.they are. If so the a goes, you take a way they ran's right hand. -
:11:16. > :11:20.- if Syria goes, you take away a ran's right hand.
:11:20. > :11:27.So they are's fault would be a benefit to those who want to take
:11:27. > :11:37.down Iran as well. You have sanctions against Serbia, which is
:11:37. > :11:38.
:11:38. > :11:41.negligible. -- Syria. In the past, imposing sanctions made the regime
:11:41. > :11:50.immune to pressure because it consolidates, and they become very
:11:50. > :11:56.inward looking. The business is are suffering at the moment. What about
:11:56. > :12:01.the oil? We have already seen oil prices at their highest level since
:12:01. > :12:11.2011 because of the tension in Iran, and it is not just the sanctions
:12:11. > :12:18.against the regime. It is shipping, insurance, fears of disruption. In
:12:18. > :12:22.many ways, we are seeing the Arabs are much more frightened of a
:12:23. > :12:27.nuclear a man and they are of Israel. What do you make of the
:12:27. > :12:37.European position on this? Do you think Europe is hesitating because
:12:37. > :12:37.
:12:37. > :12:46.of the greater problem of sorting out Sadie and Qurban? Absolutely. -
:12:47. > :12:51.- Syria and Iran. I think the position is clouded. They are
:12:51. > :12:57.concentrating on highly targeted economic sanctions, targeting the
:12:57. > :13:03.have SAT family, and so on. In Iran, the solution has always been one of
:13:03. > :13:11.finding a political solution. Recent findings about the nuclear
:13:11. > :13:15.weapons programme of Qurban, a recent findings by an independent
:13:15. > :13:20.groupings saying there are no evidence of them using it for
:13:20. > :13:26.military purposes. I think the Europeans will stick to that
:13:26. > :13:31.narrative because they are already involved in so many other places.
:13:31. > :13:37.Libya is one of the latest European excursions and it is not exactly a
:13:37. > :13:41.role-model for the future. They have to be very careful. On the
:13:41. > :13:47.question of opposition, briefly, William Hague, the British Foreign
:13:47. > :13:54.Secretary, was saying that these are the National Council is one of
:13:54. > :13:58.the voices, not the voice. The problem is they are getting an
:13:58. > :14:02.opposition but not necessarily something that they would want.
:14:02. > :14:05.is dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood, I interviewed the
:14:05. > :14:09.previous leader of the Muslim Brotherhood. He said, you have the
:14:09. > :14:15.wrong idea about the Muslim Brotherhood. They were illegal in
:14:15. > :14:20.Egypt and indeed in Syria. We are not extremists, but when I
:14:20. > :14:27.questioned him, yes, we must have Saddi a law, we must have stoning
:14:27. > :14:31.of a doll to bars, and we must have this. Absolutely unbelievable. I
:14:31. > :14:34.keep being told by friends of the brotherhood that it is out of date
:14:34. > :14:42.and they have changed completely and they will not impose Saddi a
:14:42. > :14:52.lot when they get in, which they are confident they will, but most
:14:52. > :14:57.
:14:57. > :15:02.secular people in Serbia do not believe them. -- Sharia Law. The
:15:02. > :15:07.idea that it is representing anything except it's on a fairly
:15:07. > :15:17.narrow group, it is the largest one, and the best organised, because the
:15:17. > :15:25.
:15:25. > :15:28.Muslim Brotherhood are very The British Government hosted a
:15:28. > :15:31.conference on Somalia this week - a country which has known little but
:15:31. > :15:34.conflict and misery over the past 20 years. Although overshadowed in
:15:34. > :15:36.the news agenda the main threats as highlighted at the conference
:15:36. > :15:46.remain - terrorism, piracy and the humanitarian effects of conflict
:15:46. > :15:55.
:15:55. > :16:00.and drought. Jef, what is the answer? It would be wrong to have
:16:00. > :16:07.an answer that I could deliver on a programme like this. You need a
:16:07. > :16:11.working Government that is not corrupt, you need foreign help, you
:16:11. > :16:17.need to get Al-Shabab, of the group which is most against the
:16:17. > :16:22.Government to be pushed out Miller Tadley and another ways, and that
:16:22. > :16:29.is what the plant this. They are trying to get the Government in
:16:29. > :16:34.Mogadishu to be more representative, to have elections, to have some
:16:34. > :16:38.approximate method of getting the will of the people. There have been
:16:38. > :16:42.successes, the famine is essentially over. There is still a
:16:42. > :16:48.great deal of suffering, but they have been more innovative in
:16:48. > :16:52.getting aid to the people who need it. There is progress, the UN has
:16:52. > :17:01.approved greater numbers for the force that is effective in fighting
:17:01. > :17:06.various enemies. But ates are the mess which is called the tyranny of
:17:06. > :17:12.the week. You try to do something and you do not have local people to
:17:12. > :17:19.do it through. It takes a long time and it is miserable. Yes, it is a
:17:19. > :17:23.failed state. It is not going to be unveiled any time soon. I am an old
:17:23. > :17:29.lady and I know I'm going to be dead before we talk about Somalia
:17:29. > :17:33.or in a different way. But there is a slight glimmer of light. The fact
:17:33. > :17:40.that Al-Shabab are being pushed out and also they are losing any kind
:17:40. > :17:46.of support, partly because of there behaviour in general, but also
:17:46. > :17:51.during the famine, 80,000 people died. They go on international
:17:51. > :17:57.television and say there is no famine. They would not allow any
:17:57. > :18:07.humanitarian relief to come in and by the way, I have never seen such
:18:07. > :18:12.
:18:12. > :18:18.fact Somali people as the Al-Shabab. -- fat. You saw such stick-thin so
:18:19. > :18:25.mullions and the people from Al- Shabab were so fat. Will it take an
:18:25. > :18:29.international effort? I do not think Mrs Sally peacekeepers, the
:18:29. > :18:35.African union is there and the United Nations just increase the
:18:35. > :18:42.number of peacekeeping forces from the African Union, but the Kenyans
:18:42. > :18:46.are regional rival also mullions. Probably they will see the meddling
:18:46. > :18:53.of neighbouring countries. But I would like to cast aspersions on
:18:53. > :18:59.the failed state rhetoric. Despite 20 years of famine, higher you see,
:18:59. > :19:09.clan wars and so on, some aliens have proved to be a highly
:19:09. > :19:12.resourceful and resilient people. A highly resourceful nation, in this
:19:12. > :19:17.sense that in the past 10 years, they have managed to build up
:19:17. > :19:22.schools, hospitals, banks, universities. They are highly
:19:22. > :19:29.entrepreneurial. So Malik businessmen are very important in
:19:29. > :19:33.Africa. They have been able to do certain things. There is the
:19:33. > :19:40.example of what Somaliland, which declared independence in 1971. It
:19:40. > :19:48.has run itself fairly well, it is stable. There is Puntland, which
:19:48. > :19:56.has achieved a certain level of self- Government. Somalis have been
:19:56. > :20:04.doing a certain number of things. One of the things his involvement
:20:04. > :20:10.of other civil society. There has been a great focus on the diaspora.
:20:10. > :20:15.Far more important to involve local Somalis. They have an egalitarian
:20:15. > :20:22.society, with clans and local forms of justice. This has to be taking
:20:22. > :20:29.into account when looking at Government for its just. --
:20:29. > :20:33.structures. Power has to be devolved if we want to put an end
:20:33. > :20:38.to the problems. The two is an interesting thought. At the
:20:38. > :20:43.conference this week, one thing that came out is that Somalis have
:20:43. > :20:52.to be involved. It has to be men who decide what their future is.
:20:52. > :20:58.But they cannot do it without help. They were at my hotel and they did
:20:58. > :21:04.not look hungry at all. But the Somalis were doing it themselves
:21:04. > :21:09.with help from troops, but why have we suddenly become concerned with
:21:09. > :21:16.Somalia? Beatty's with the piracy. The threat of two failed states on
:21:17. > :21:21.either side, Somalia and your men. Yemen is maybe now trying to get
:21:21. > :21:29.themselves together, they have had an election. Although not everybody
:21:29. > :21:34.is happy. Suddenly the focus is on Somalia. As you said, they are
:21:34. > :21:38.egalitarian. One thing that came out of the conference, is that
:21:38. > :21:42.women need to be included. As we know, it is important to get the
:21:42. > :21:50.women included, because then we do not have so many wars. All these
:21:50. > :21:57.years, we have neglected Somalia. But it is so clannish. At one point,
:21:57. > :22:06.they had more than 100 local governments. We have no business
:22:06. > :22:10.there, actually. We should welcome the fact that it is localised and
:22:10. > :22:15.clan based. It is the terrible thing that has happened to Somalia
:22:15. > :22:21.is that the clan base system there, because clans from time immemorial
:22:21. > :22:27.have quarrelled with each other and to killed each other. They now have
:22:27. > :22:31.more weapons to do it, because in the olden days when it was will
:22:31. > :22:36.desert, really just poisoning a few wells and stealing a few coats was
:22:36. > :22:41.about the limit. I do not think you can build a modern state, which in
:22:41. > :22:46.the end you have to, on the basis of tiny little clan groupings with
:22:46. > :22:51.their own justice system, with their own loyalties and this
:22:51. > :22:57.loyalties. You're saying the West has to come
:22:57. > :23:05.in and show them how to do it. course there will be endless
:23:05. > :23:11.numbers of busy bawdy good governance people coming in there,
:23:11. > :23:15.white people in their Land cruisers, bossing the Somalis are around. Yes,
:23:16. > :23:21.it is useful to tell them how you run these things, but in the end,
:23:21. > :23:29.it does have to beat the Somalis who do it and the more the medal,
:23:29. > :23:35.the more we actually make it worse. We have not learnt the lesson that
:23:35. > :23:38.the West does not own for world. It is therefore a big mistake to
:23:38. > :23:48.decide that we are going to convert societies that her very different
:23:48. > :23:56.
:23:56. > :23:59.from ours into a similar crumb of This weekend it's the great
:23:59. > :24:05.Hollywood party for the Oscars. I thought we should ask our panel who
:24:05. > :24:14.they wanted to win this year. Can I start with you, Kate? Your tip for
:24:14. > :24:21.best actor and actress. I have not seen all the films, but
:24:21. > :24:31.the ones I have seen, the artist is hard to beat. I will go with Jean
:24:31. > :24:32.
:24:32. > :24:37.Dujardin. I will also go with Jean Dujardin. He was very charming. To
:24:37. > :24:45.do a silent movie as well as he did, you have to be very good at your
:24:45. > :24:52.craft. And Meryl Streep should get it for best female at tour.
:24:52. > :25:02.When Helen Mirren 1 for the Queen, she went to all these parties and
:25:02. > :25:04.
:25:04. > :25:09.morph into the Queen. Maybe that will happen to Meryl Streep. I am
:25:09. > :25:16.very upset, because I think Meryl Streep is the most brilliant screen
:25:16. > :25:24.actress ever. She is not going to get best actress. Why is that?
:25:24. > :25:29.Partly because I think, because I think it is going to be Viola Davis.
:25:30. > :25:34.But they are both black and it is about a period of social history
:25:34. > :25:44.that Americans feel very complicated about and want to see
:25:44. > :25:49.it make nice. Mrs Thatcher, well... A quick final slot from you.
:25:49. > :25:59.I hope she coat does not win a lot of awards, because I got it was
:25:59. > :26:00.