:00:03. > :00:13.hit by the storms, with some communities completely destroyed. -
:00:13. > :00:26.
:00:26. > :00:32.- con -- Kentucky and Indiana. Now it is time for Dateline London.
:00:32. > :00:38.Russia goes to the polls, but how far would the return of Vladimir
:00:38. > :00:43.Putin to the presidency be welcome? The struggle for Syria. And the
:00:43. > :00:47.European Union tries to enforce discipline. My guests Dmitry
:00:47. > :00:55.Shishkin of the BBC Russia Service, Francis Matthew of the Gulf News,
:00:55. > :01:01.Dr Vincent Magombe of Africa Inform and Henry Chu of the LA Times. As
:01:01. > :01:06.prime minister, Vladimir Putin has never been far from power. Should
:01:06. > :01:15.we welcome stability in Russia or be concerned that another
:01:16. > :01:20.presidency by Vladimir Putin would create instability. The question is
:01:20. > :01:25.whether he will win in the first round at the polls the Sunday or
:01:25. > :01:33.the second round. The Kremlin is probably eager to win in the first
:01:33. > :01:38.round of voting. They will probably face the disdain which started
:01:38. > :01:43.after the parliamentary elections. Nothing will change. The country is
:01:43. > :01:49.different and changing. The city classes are more robust in what
:01:49. > :01:59.they ask from the government. Apparently Putin it will not be
:01:59. > :02:00.
:02:00. > :02:05.able to simply use money to charm them. It is about the middle class
:02:05. > :02:12.who are not putting any economic changes to the government. It is
:02:12. > :02:16.about how they see themselves in the country. To be clear, in terms
:02:16. > :02:24.of the fairness of the election. Even though it there have been
:02:24. > :02:30.complaints already, is it clear that he would win any way? It is.
:02:30. > :02:36.It is a different situation to several years ago when he was
:02:36. > :02:44.undeniably the President of the majority of Russians. But steel if
:02:44. > :02:49.you go by Moscow and St Petersburg you feel that people do not
:02:49. > :02:56.necessarily associate themselves with protest movements. It is all
:02:56. > :03:04.about the economy, jobs and well- being. They definitely associate
:03:04. > :03:09.themselves with the Putin. One of the things which strikes me is that
:03:09. > :03:14.all around the world including the Gulf region is that there has
:03:15. > :03:18.always a trade-off between the demand for change, more democracy,
:03:18. > :03:24.more freedom and the gut instinct which human beings have for
:03:24. > :03:29.stability. That often rules over change. They have to do something
:03:29. > :03:39.to improve their lifestyle, to keep people earning money. That is a
:03:39. > :03:47.major challenge in Russia. And that is why the dissed content from the
:03:47. > :03:55.middle classes is obvious? Yes. will they manage to muster as much
:03:55. > :04:01.street presence as necessary? will start to fade as Russia goes
:04:01. > :04:05.into the season between late spring and summer. I do not just mean
:04:05. > :04:13.opposition politicians, but a group of people not happy with the
:04:13. > :04:23.political systems. They need to set themselves up to be involved in the
:04:23. > :04:24.
:04:24. > :04:34.political process. Currently it is a motley crew of people who are not
:04:34. > :04:36.
:04:36. > :04:46.united. But that is how democracy works, isn't it? Absolutely false -
:04:46. > :04:50.
:04:50. > :04:56.- absolutely. I was in Leningrad for ten years, 1980 to 1990. I am
:04:56. > :05:06.very familiar with what is happening. It is a bit of a tragedy
:05:06. > :05:06.
:05:06. > :05:15.for a Russian people. I see them as being like Uganda. They do not have
:05:15. > :05:19.anything like democracy. Even after perestroika when they are modern
:05:20. > :05:27.and can set an example of democratic process, they do not. If
:05:28. > :05:33.you look carefully, the Russian people do not know what to do. Do
:05:33. > :05:38.they put the communists back into power who will then give them no
:05:38. > :05:46.freedom or democracy? Or do they stick by someone who is a classic
:05:46. > :05:52.dictator, like Putin. One of these days we will see manoeuvres after
:05:52. > :06:02.he comes to power. He wants to stay in power as long as he can.
:06:02. > :06:02.
:06:02. > :06:11.detector that? We have seen all the tricks that he has used to stay in
:06:11. > :06:16.power. I can see what Putin is doing. He thinks, many Russian
:06:16. > :06:22.people would rather have me than the communists, so he will do
:06:22. > :06:29.anything by paying his way with changes to the constitution. Their
:06:29. > :06:39.choice now is not between him and the communists. The communists will
:06:39. > :06:42.
:06:42. > :06:50.probably only polled 15%. His main fear or is that things will happen
:06:50. > :06:56.such as have happened in the Ukraine and Georgia. What we can
:06:56. > :07:06.see in Africa and now in Russia is new generations of people who are
:07:06. > :07:11.
:07:11. > :07:18.aware of their rights. Slowly, Putin might think that the movement
:07:18. > :07:26.is not strong now. After a while it will be. Just like in my country.
:07:26. > :07:32.In Uganda we have tried to take the government off and we think it is
:07:32. > :07:38.impossible, but we are trying. wonder about other governments,
:07:38. > :07:45.whatever they say about flawed democracy. It is they tear the
:07:45. > :07:52.devil you know. They like dealing with people they have dealt within
:07:52. > :07:58.the past. -- it is better the devil you know. He then the system that
:07:58. > :08:04.Putin would still be in charge of has changed from what I understand.
:08:04. > :08:11.It has rotted from corruption and the levels of power he has
:08:11. > :08:16.exercised are not what they used to be for him. Potentially two more
:08:16. > :08:24.terms, until 2024. It is difficult to imagine somebody being in power
:08:24. > :08:31.until then. Robert Mugabe may be to defer. I do not not know if we can
:08:31. > :08:38.equate that with stability. Several foreign journalists yesterday,
:08:38. > :08:43.including from the Times, spoke to him and he said, let's wait and see
:08:43. > :08:53.if I am elected. I do not necessarily want to stay for that
:08:53. > :08:55.
:08:55. > :09:05.time. If you look at the type of people who campaign against him,
:09:05. > :09:07.
:09:07. > :09:13.they are not typical Ugandans. Mass action for change. In Russia,
:09:13. > :09:22.everybody is educated. Many people know how to use the internet and
:09:22. > :09:28.other channels. You were talking about the opposition and the new
:09:28. > :09:36.generation. Even if he is the next president, is he yesterday's man in
:09:36. > :09:41.a sense? That is a balancing needs to strike between pleasing the
:09:41. > :09:51.people who still support him and giving something to the angry
:09:51. > :09:52.
:09:52. > :09:59.middle class. People in the big cities. A good thing happened to
:09:59. > :10:06.his opponents on 5th March. A demonstration was allowed to happen
:10:06. > :10:13.in the centre of Moscow, in Pushkin Square. Russians are really afraid
:10:13. > :10:23.of anything to do with violence. After 90 years of their history,
:10:23. > :10:24.
:10:24. > :10:28.both sides understand that violent methods are not suitable.
:10:28. > :10:38.sensitive the his Putin and other people in Russia to what people
:10:38. > :10:40.
:10:40. > :10:49.think of them? I think the West has been dealing with Putin based on
:10:49. > :10:54.the overall values, like gas. I think it is very practical. Putin
:10:54. > :10:58.is very isolationist. He will say anything he wants to say about the
:10:58. > :11:08.West because he knows that the West it needs him more than the other
:11:08. > :11:09.
:11:09. > :11:15.way around. And we do need gas. The journalists rescued from Syria
:11:15. > :11:20.again remind us of the dreadful situation there. The Arab League
:11:20. > :11:25.has tried and everyone is very concerned. Much of the world is
:11:25. > :11:31.talking with one voice now. It is difficult to see how intervention
:11:31. > :11:35.can happen. On people are very angry and there is increasing
:11:35. > :11:42.discussed about what the Government has done. Every week another
:11:42. > :11:46.hundred people killed. People want to do something, but what? There is
:11:46. > :11:53.a rather chaotic political opposition so it is difficult to
:11:53. > :12:03.get behind them and push. Divided among themselves, as well.
:12:03. > :12:05.
:12:05. > :12:10.Syrian army has held territory, but there is no front line. Is an army
:12:10. > :12:15.going to suddenly take on the Syrian army in Syria? The front
:12:15. > :12:21.line is between the army and the people and they are making to link.
:12:22. > :12:26.As we have seen in Homs where the Free Syria Army has withdrawn. The
:12:26. > :12:35.injured British journalists said it was not the Free Syria Army against
:12:35. > :12:45.the Syrian army. You should not underestimate the power of the
:12:45. > :12:47.
:12:47. > :12:54.people. In that he Libya, everybody said it could not happen. -- in
:12:54. > :13:04.Libya. The determination i c a amongst those pro-democracy forces
:13:04. > :13:07.
:13:07. > :13:16.in Syria. I personally feel it is so enormous and growing by the day.
:13:16. > :13:22.It will be very hard for Assad to sustain his hold on power for the
:13:22. > :13:31.long-term, even without external intervention. He may be fighting to
:13:31. > :13:37.the last Syrian. There are so many dead now. Hillary Clinton said he
:13:37. > :13:45.should be brought up on charges and that will only make him entrenched
:13:45. > :13:50.himself further. People are getting pounded and at least in Libya they
:13:50. > :14:00.were defections from the army. We are not seeing that on a large
:14:00. > :14:05.
:14:05. > :14:11.scale in Syria. In that Libya we did not have Armenian same -- army
:14:11. > :14:21.personnel saying they were running things. They our loyal to Assad so
:14:21. > :14:22.
:14:22. > :14:31.you are not having the same kind of mass defections. There is no
:14:31. > :14:40.political offer it to the Alawites to join them. That is where the
:14:40. > :14:46.international community comes in. I think the international community
:14:46. > :14:55.can almost forced the negotiation to go one. Kofi Annan and his being
:14:55. > :15:00.sent there. I do not know if he can manage it or not. The Alawites have
:15:00. > :15:05.a sense that they may get away with it. Depressingly, I think the
:15:05. > :15:15.government forces feel they may get through. I do not think they feel
:15:15. > :15:22.they are on their last legs. could compare it to Tripoli. Libya
:15:22. > :15:29.is different because there you had Benghazi which was rebel territory
:15:29. > :15:35.and to Gaddafi control the West. There was an organised push. It was
:15:35. > :15:45.fluid. NATO was able to help the rebels become more coherent and arm
:15:45. > :15:48.
:15:48. > :15:52.It is easy for us to say they are disorganised and divided. But as we
:15:52. > :15:59.see them making great efforts to try to set up the unified command
:15:59. > :16:03.and so on, I know there are several governments within the Middle East
:16:03. > :16:10.that are quite keen and are perhaps already starting to arm these
:16:10. > :16:15.people. Saudi Arabia and Qatar have already done so. There is another
:16:15. > :16:19.backlash, they say they are turning it into more of a Sunni opposition.
:16:19. > :16:25.But the opposition want support from wherever they can get it. But
:16:25. > :16:33.that is money and organisation. If the Arab forces going, that would
:16:33. > :16:38.be a problem. Vladimir Putin could offer her President Assad asylum in
:16:38. > :16:43.Moscow. Is he going to change? Once he is elected? Will he change in
:16:43. > :16:47.any way? I do not been so. I think the recent points of history in
:16:47. > :16:54.Russia show you that apart from Afghanistan, which Russia supported
:16:54. > :16:59.after 9/11, you have Serbian bombings in the late 90s and also
:17:00. > :17:04.obviously Iraq, which Russia did not support and continues to not
:17:04. > :17:09.support. Their stance on Syria is very clear. They do not want to
:17:09. > :17:14.support anything that will start to look as if the international
:17:14. > :17:18.coalition starts to happen. There was this meeting which Russia and
:17:18. > :17:26.China boycotted recently. The Russian Foreign Minister actually
:17:26. > :17:33.called the meeting something almost the first steps to get something
:17:33. > :17:37.happening, a military operation. Does Vladimir Putin not care about
:17:38. > :17:42.Arab public opinion? It is interesting because the Russian
:17:42. > :17:46.foreign policy be -- towards the Arab world is very strange. It is
:17:46. > :17:56.uneven. Russia tries to deal with Israel on one hand and the Arab
:17:56. > :17:58.
:17:58. > :18:02.world and another. But you would think that Russia would mimic the
:18:02. > :18:08.relationship the Arab Union has with -- the European Union has with
:18:08. > :18:17.the Arab world. But Russia is all about domestic policy now. The
:18:17. > :18:20.foreign policy in Russia is probably... Russia is operating in
:18:20. > :18:25.a certain way. They are doing exactly what the Americans and
:18:25. > :18:35.everyone else is doing in international foreign policy. In
:18:35. > :18:38.
:18:38. > :18:48.this case, they know very well that the Americans... Recently Americans
:18:48. > :18:48.
:18:48. > :18:56.deployed troops. The Russians are doing exactly what the Americans
:18:56. > :19:01.would do in certain countries. some of our viewers will say that
:19:01. > :19:07.is what the Americans are doing in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain for
:19:07. > :19:11.example. And Israel. Yes. It is hard to shield the US from
:19:11. > :19:15.criticism. And I am not going to do that. But Russia appeared to be
:19:15. > :19:19.stepping back slightly in terms of saying they are not for any kind of
:19:19. > :19:25.military intervention. But neither would they prop up Syria militarily.
:19:25. > :19:29.So that should be something... they had a bad experience at
:19:29. > :19:34.watching NATO get its mandate to save civilian lives. Then it turned
:19:34. > :19:39.it into regime change is Libya. And they do not want to be conned again
:19:39. > :19:44.in Syria. So if they are going to get a UN resolution, they will want
:19:44. > :19:47.to be very specific. Moving on. The European Union summit in Brussels
:19:47. > :19:52.saw the signing of a new treaty to enforce fiscal discipline.
:19:52. > :19:56.Something agreed by 25 EU countries. Britain and the Czech Republic
:19:56. > :20:02.remain on the outside. How fit is Europe now to whether the euros and
:20:02. > :20:05.crisis which is still far from being resolved? One of the things I
:20:05. > :20:08.noticed, one speaker said in a battle between economics and
:20:08. > :20:12.politics, no matter what politicians say, economics will
:20:12. > :20:22.always win. Her view was that no matter what you think, Greece will
:20:22. > :20:22.
:20:22. > :20:28.be out of the eurozone. If I was in addition, I would say a couple of
:20:28. > :20:34.years from now we would have the euro. In a certain way, even if
:20:34. > :20:39.people feel confident, look at how much money is being put in every
:20:39. > :20:49.month. After a month, they say it has not worked, we need to put in
:20:49. > :20:58.
:20:58. > :21:04.more money. Perhaps the British were quite clever to keep out of
:21:04. > :21:12.the euro. Our we going to have praise for Gordon Brown now? Not
:21:12. > :21:16.many people do that. I think the global economy itself is in trouble.
:21:16. > :21:22.I say this cynically because Africans, if we do not have these
:21:22. > :21:27.problems of democracy, lack of democracy, in my country we have
:21:27. > :21:32.discovered Africa is full of all of these resources. Europe and the
:21:32. > :21:42.West - their economies are so shattered. Not just the economies,
:21:42. > :21:42.
:21:42. > :21:47.the philosophies they had. And bake in leaders. Exactly. -- and faith.
:21:47. > :21:50.Greece is so small and yet so significant. What it means for
:21:50. > :21:56.Portugal and Ireland and all its other places. We are familiar with
:21:56. > :22:00.the argument. But it seems that have it -- that metaphor about
:22:00. > :22:10.kicking the rat down the road, someone will have to pick it up
:22:10. > :22:11.
:22:11. > :22:15.some time. Greece now seems like an outlier. Things have been quiet the
:22:15. > :22:20.last six or seven weeks. But we need to be clear that it has not --
:22:20. > :22:23.has nothing to do with what the leaders have done but it has to do
:22:23. > :22:31.with what the ECB did. Offering cheap long-term loans, over one
:22:31. > :22:41.trillion dollars of the last few months, and that has bullied
:22:41. > :22:43.
:22:43. > :22:46.confidence. -- buoyed. I am very cynical about this. Unless the
:22:46. > :22:54.European Union start having one government to govern all fares
:22:54. > :22:58.across all 27 countries, this will continue to happen. -- all affairs.
:22:58. > :23:02.It cannot be that you have one financial discipline in one country
:23:02. > :23:07.and another in another country. History shows that with such a
:23:07. > :23:12.large continent, you cannot say the fiscal situation will be the same
:23:12. > :23:18.in Germany or Greece. You have been infected with what most people in
:23:18. > :23:23.Britain think! I have seen more determination to keep you alive and
:23:23. > :23:27.the willingness to go for the strong European bank. If that
:23:27. > :23:32.happens then the euro will survive. We are wrong to say it will not
:23:32. > :23:39.work. But a strong euro means some will go out. If Greece goes, or
:23:39. > :23:44.perhaps Portugal and Ireland, then Spain and Italy are too big to go.
:23:44. > :23:53.That is a problem. But when those little ones go, they will not go
:23:53. > :24:03.out into darkness. AGEF to be inventive grade two New Row, could
:24:03. > :24:06.
:24:06. > :24:11.be invented. -- a yet to be invented grade two Euro. Everybody
:24:11. > :24:16.talks about the disaster for Greece but if that was to happen,
:24:16. > :24:23.Germany's currency would be revalued and exports would be
:24:23. > :24:28.difficult. 30% is a likely revaluation. Greece would be 40%
:24:28. > :24:38.down. There is a strong reason to keep the euro. But I do not think
:24:38. > :24:39.
:24:39. > :24:47.that means... Why would they not keep it? Partly because of the
:24:47. > :24:54.economic benefits, partly political. For me it is the pride. The pride
:24:54. > :24:58.of Western nations to show they are not finished. When you hear things
:24:58. > :25:04.about how China wants to coming to support them, Russia wants to come
:25:04. > :25:08.in, western Europe had better except they got it wrong. Their
:25:08. > :25:12.whole thinking has gone wrong. That is why you see the Chinese and
:25:12. > :25:18.others coming up. The quicker they accept that and go back to the
:25:18. > :25:22.drawing board and see how we can perhaps be more... A European
:25:22. > :25:27.companies need to be more productive and regain growth. But
:25:27. > :25:36.that is a separate issue from getting the EU are back on track.
:25:36. > :25:46.It just may not survive the way it looks now. The model has not been
:25:46. > :25:51.successful. But actually Germany has been highly successful. If it