:00:29. > :00:34.Welcome today line London. Is there any point in British troops
:00:34. > :00:37.continuing to fight it in Afghanistan? What is the Iranian
:00:37. > :00:47.government want to happen across the Middle East? And Greece has
:00:47. > :00:49.
:00:50. > :00:54.finally received a second bail-out, but so what? Thank you all for
:00:54. > :00:59.joining me. The death of six British soldiers in Afghanistan
:00:59. > :01:03.after 11 years of NATO involvement provoked mourning in Britain but
:01:03. > :01:09.also questioning of government policy. Do we believe that troops
:01:09. > :01:13.risking their lives in Helmand makes lives safer in Britain?
:01:13. > :01:18.Should we pull-out? I think we should have pulled out a
:01:18. > :01:23.long time ago. The whole venture was flawed from the start. It seems
:01:23. > :01:31.to get worse and worse every day. The reality is the situation is
:01:31. > :01:35.doing very little in Afghanistan and Pakistan is becoming the real
:01:36. > :01:40.victim of the conflict with so many people killed there. It has taken
:01:40. > :01:50.arrive off the ball and it has been a disaster from start to finish. I
:01:50. > :01:54.
:01:54. > :01:58.was struck when I read the former British ambassador's book, when
:01:58. > :02:04.some Afghan ministers were asked how long will they retain power
:02:04. > :02:08.after we have left, and they laughed and said, 24 hours. What
:02:08. > :02:11.you think about the argument that it makes lives saved her in
:02:12. > :02:16.Britain? I think that is ludicrous. The
:02:16. > :02:22.argument changes all the time. It is about gender equality and
:02:22. > :02:29.stopping the drug trade. A look at what is happening in Pakistan. It
:02:29. > :02:33.shows that life is more danger this if anything. Because Pakistan is
:02:33. > :02:41.absolutely of strategic national interest at the moment. Among other
:02:41. > :02:47.countries as well. It is. Thinking about these ten years, what is
:02:47. > :02:56.interesting is how what is -- how it has brought Pakistan into a new
:02:56. > :03:03.law will -- a new role. Pakistan, India, and how that influenced
:03:03. > :03:13.geopolitics. It is very clear now that the border, the Bury Fen and
:03:13. > :03:20.
:03:20. > :03:28.virtually non-existent border, -- very then. There is a big change
:03:28. > :03:32.and ban surprised nobody figured that out in advance. There are
:03:32. > :03:42.various rationales. What happened in the present after so 1011, and
:03:42. > :03:46.Afghanistan, the Taliban were quite a brutal regime and you cannot put
:03:47. > :03:52.the women's rights issues in the same back as certain kinds of
:03:52. > :04:02.democracy forming, because we know that is not what it was about, for
:04:02. > :04:02.
:04:02. > :04:06.security creation. I think the inevitable will happen which is the
:04:06. > :04:16.Taliban or some groups that call themselves Taliban will come back
:04:16. > :04:21.
:04:21. > :04:26.into power. If the state is their strategic animal -- enemy, they
:04:26. > :04:30.presumably cannot believe their luck. Afghanistan was the war that
:04:30. > :04:34.could have been one according to President Obama but unfortunately
:04:34. > :04:40.the way you are seeing it now, it is going down the same pattern that
:04:40. > :04:44.Iraq to it. If you are when they ran, three days ago, the United
:04:44. > :04:53.States Treasury designated a top commander of the Islamic
:04:53. > :04:59.Revolutionary Guards who operate in Afghanistan as a drug kingpin,
:04:59. > :05:07.helping to move not only had a win but also armament to the Taliban. A
:05:07. > :05:12.man has a long history and heritage of relations with Afghanistan.
:05:12. > :05:18.was part of the Greater Persian Empire, wasn't it? Yes and they
:05:18. > :05:23.speak the same language. Afghanistan and Iraq also always
:05:23. > :05:28.proved very difficult to control for the I Iranian government, even
:05:28. > :05:33.before, in the last century. did the British and Americans not
:05:33. > :05:37.learn the lessons of history from Russia and other countries?
:05:37. > :05:42.Yes, and also the Iranian influence in Afghanistan has been building
:05:42. > :05:47.for a long time, ever since the fall of the Taliban. Through
:05:47. > :05:52.education, they were sending books. Even President Karzai it admitted
:05:52. > :05:57.that he was getting loads of money from the Iranians. The whole of the
:05:57. > :06:01.country, not even President Karzai, can hold the country together.
:06:01. > :06:08.This is obviously hugely important for India.
:06:08. > :06:12.Certainly because India is pumping $1.5 billion into the
:06:12. > :06:17.reconstruction of Afghanistan, which for a developing country like
:06:17. > :06:22.India is a lot of money. India would West to see stability in
:06:22. > :06:27.Afghanistan. I tend to disagree with people who feel that British
:06:27. > :06:30.troops should the lout. The simple reason is that you have gone there
:06:30. > :06:36.for that job and a few polite without finishing the job, the
:06:36. > :06:44.situation is likely to get worse. They is the job to a bull?
:06:44. > :06:50.Of a long time. For a simple reason, on day one, Western troops did not
:06:50. > :06:52.realise that apart from invading the country, what was important was
:06:52. > :06:57.economic Development and Reconstruction and that started
:06:57. > :07:02.much later. The training of police forces and armed forces, which has
:07:02. > :07:08.occurred only recently, these were mistakes that this was not
:07:08. > :07:12.visualised. What we often call in exit strategy. That was not thought
:07:13. > :07:16.of when the troops went in. The other thing the Western troops they
:07:16. > :07:23.did not realise, which they have realised now, was the problem of
:07:23. > :07:28.Pakistan. You now have accusations made by a BOP Washington and
:07:28. > :07:33.Western governments in general that there has been deposited on the
:07:33. > :07:36.part of Pakistan, particularly on the part of the ISI and the
:07:36. > :07:42.Pakistani military. These were problems not foreseen that should
:07:42. > :07:48.have been taken into account. It could have been a shorter job but
:07:48. > :07:51.it will now be longer unfortunately. Everybody talks about the national
:07:51. > :07:57.security interests of Britain but at one point, nobody defines what
:07:57. > :08:05.are the elements of the National Security - is it terrorism only, is
:08:05. > :08:09.it also jihad is him? Keeping jihadists outside of the UK.
:08:09. > :08:15.Whether it it is obviously, at one point, the Defence Minister has
:08:15. > :08:21.admitted that it is certainly not one of the British objectives to
:08:21. > :08:26.bring liberal democracy, Western liberal democracy, to Afghanistan.
:08:26. > :08:32.Yes, we fight them over there so we don't have to fight them over here.
:08:32. > :08:42.But if you have an idealised view of what is possible in that country,
:08:42. > :08:43.
:08:43. > :08:47.with in Afghanistan, one of the things, it's 30 years time, people
:08:47. > :08:52.will see Afghanistan and Iraq as the same thing, pot by the same
:08:52. > :08:57.President with the same flaws in his game plan. One of the things is
:08:57. > :09:05.that they should have flooded these on with the wheels of power tools,
:09:05. > :09:11.but the initial mission was to find all summer and get rid of them. --
:09:11. > :09:16.Osama Bin Laden. They failed, but the problem is that and this should
:09:16. > :09:21.have been known to everyone, the degree to which corrupts and enters
:09:21. > :09:27.into these cost conflict situations is almost overnight because you
:09:28. > :09:31.common with create lots of money on a grand sale in Iraq, and
:09:31. > :09:36.Afghanistan and I saw this in Bosnia, it was one of the most
:09:36. > :09:41.corrupt places in Europe, because there is no accounting and it gets
:09:41. > :09:43.out into the black market and trucks and modelling, and you have
:09:43. > :09:48.to be very careful about criticising what might have been
:09:48. > :09:51.done because unless you watch the money, and have a proper partner in
:09:51. > :09:57.charge of the government, because we know that the cars I government
:09:57. > :10:03.is corrupt, you can't really did his eyes. There is a big question
:10:03. > :10:07.about whether Western democracies actually have the ability to going
:10:07. > :10:10.for the sort of adventures? In order to achieve some of their
:10:10. > :10:15.names they wanted in Afghanistan, they would have had to be there for
:10:15. > :10:20.a much longer period, they would have had to sustain a lot more cost
:10:21. > :10:27.in terms of finance and lights. Some British military officers say
:10:27. > :10:31.it is 40 years. In a way they have more or not and some politicians.
:10:31. > :10:36.agree with that because in Western democracies there is not the
:10:36. > :10:40.appetite for these long term nation-building exercises.
:10:40. > :10:46.Let me want to the future of Syria. It is complicated because of the
:10:46. > :10:51.ethnic mix of people. And because outside powers like Turkey, Saudi
:10:51. > :10:58.Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Russia and the United States all have a stake in
:10:58. > :11:02.what is going on. With the nuclear issue one result, what other than's
:11:02. > :11:07.ambitions for the Middle East? What you think Qurban would like as an
:11:07. > :11:11.outcome in Syria? I think they would like President
:11:11. > :11:15.Assad to stay in power because in the end this would be a morale
:11:15. > :11:20.boost for the Revolutionary Guard and for all the policies of the
:11:20. > :11:28.Islamic Republic, internationally. At the end of the day, if you ask,
:11:28. > :11:37.what is the objective of Iran? It has always been the same. Not just
:11:37. > :11:42.a ban, it is the Islamic revolution, and the objective has to been to
:11:42. > :11:51.bring a new world order and to expand the informants of the
:11:51. > :11:56.Islamic government, PC at style of Islamic government. Mr Assad is at
:11:56. > :12:05.the forefront right now fighting for the interests of the Islamic
:12:05. > :12:10.government. That is why they have so many troops there. Do you think
:12:10. > :12:15.that because of what is happening in Iraq, that things have changed?
:12:15. > :12:21.Another words, that Iraq is more closely identified with their
:12:21. > :12:31.Bennion sphere of influence, and therefore Syria is less important.
:12:31. > :12:32.
:12:32. > :12:42.Not at all. Syria as a country has served as a geographical entry into
:12:42. > :12:42.
:12:42. > :12:46.these other countries in terms of sending troops. Syria's are... We
:12:46. > :12:53.always talk about the axis of the ball and putting it down, yes, we
:12:53. > :12:58.are not taught me about be people. We are talking about the Government
:12:58. > :13:03.and the people who rule, the power holders. Iran, Syria and North
:13:03. > :13:08.Korea. You have this access and if you break that access, that would
:13:08. > :13:12.be the end of the Albanian government.
:13:12. > :13:21.There comes a time where a ban would think of their vital national
:13:21. > :13:27.interests ahead of anything else. I find that there is music emerging
:13:27. > :13:35.in two different tones. On the face of it, clearly, a than is prepared,
:13:35. > :13:38.and when I say this, the space I would like to what is the supreme
:13:38. > :13:43.leader and with the recent elections in Iran, he has emerged
:13:44. > :13:48.as even more powerful. He is the man who will play a decisive role
:13:48. > :13:54.as far as Iran's approach to Syria is concerned. There has clearly
:13:54. > :13:58.been a close relationship between Iran and Damascus. If you remember,
:13:58. > :14:04.Damascus was the only Arab regime that backed Iran in the war against
:14:04. > :14:09.Iraq, so it is a very close relationship. It is a relationship
:14:09. > :14:14.where a ban is unlikely to abandon as that easily. At the same time, I
:14:15. > :14:20.don't think they will go with him to the end because they would like
:14:20. > :14:24.Syria to remain an ally. When I talk about the vital interests, it
:14:24. > :14:28.is clearly the screes that a ban is phasing on the diplomatic and
:14:28. > :14:33.economic front as a result of their nuclear programme. That is their
:14:33. > :14:39.most important concern. In Syria, there has always been a statement
:14:39. > :14:44.which says clearly that Syria should look at reforms. This is a
:14:44. > :14:54.euphemism to say, talk to the opposition, give them concessions.
:14:54. > :14:55.
:14:55. > :15:04.But it could also mean to Mr that The one thing that the opposition
:15:04. > :15:10.doesn't want to do is talk. That is a big problem at the moment. It has
:15:10. > :15:16.divided opposition. Exactly. On top of that, they have been unable to
:15:16. > :15:19.get together and say this is what a political objective bills. I have
:15:19. > :15:24.heard some sound criticism by people who are close to the
:15:24. > :15:27.opposition, English people. You have to have a coherent political
:15:27. > :15:33.programme and you have to realise there is no way that the outside
:15:33. > :15:38.world is going to our new and therefore if you choose to attack
:15:38. > :15:48.the one strength the Azad regime has, overpowering supporter in the
:15:48. > :15:51.
:15:51. > :15:56.army, you are going to lose. -- President Bashar al-Assad. I think
:15:56. > :16:01.that there is probably a limited amount of influence that Iran has
:16:01. > :16:06.be on the violence and aiding and abetting the violence. I think that
:16:06. > :16:12.with things being equal, they would rather that situation was dealt
:16:12. > :16:16.with. The economic situation is getting very grim in Syria, and
:16:16. > :16:21.that could lead to the collapse of the regime. Equally it could slip
:16:21. > :16:28.into more violence and end up with what we are beginning to see which
:16:28. > :16:35.is a proxy war. You have got rush hour and Iran, Sudhir Arabia and
:16:35. > :16:37.Turkey. Then it becomes more volatile and more dangerous. The
:16:37. > :16:43.danger is they may find themselves in a situation which is getting
:16:43. > :16:52.more and more out of control. That is the big danger. When you look at
:16:52. > :16:56.Syria and the opposition, the opposition is divided. This is
:16:56. > :17:01.exactly where balls leaders would like it to be. It is the same
:17:01. > :17:05.strategy that the Iranian Government used during 2009, the
:17:05. > :17:10.green demonstrations. They divided their opposition. Some of them came
:17:10. > :17:14.to them, some didn't. When there is this talk about let's have a
:17:14. > :17:20.diplomatic solution, I think definitely. You cannot go on
:17:20. > :17:26.fighting. But the Syrian opposition itself has to get its act together.
:17:26. > :17:34.So it is not influenced by the regime in and around or by Mr
:17:34. > :17:40.Assange. After months of negotiations, Greece has met the
:17:40. > :17:48.conditions for the second bail-out. -- President Bashar al-Assad.
:17:48. > :17:52.Hardly champagne corks popping in Greece. There will not be any
:17:52. > :17:58.champagne being consumed in vast quantities in Greece for a long
:17:58. > :18:02.time. They have a long road, the Greeks have a long and terrible
:18:02. > :18:08.road. What is interesting is that from the time of this crisis
:18:08. > :18:12.exploded which has last summer or till now, the idea that it could
:18:12. > :18:18.bring down everything. It could send the world economy to a new
:18:18. > :18:23.dimension which we do not want to know about. It has focused the
:18:23. > :18:30.European leadership, finally, on dealing with the essential flaws in
:18:30. > :18:37.the euro. I think that Greece itself is probably the conventional
:18:37. > :18:42.wisdom is right, there is need for another bail-out. We have also seen
:18:42. > :18:46.something which has been missing which has been understanding it. It
:18:46. > :18:51.is not just an economic crisis. It was a crisis that forced the
:18:51. > :18:57.political and social side of their EU to play its role and there has
:18:57. > :19:05.been leadership. The eurozone is still together, there has been time
:19:05. > :19:10.to build firewalls. I think that in the end what should be acknowledged,
:19:10. > :19:19.not celebrated, is that they even got there in the end, founder wake
:19:19. > :19:26.to a bail-out, find a way to get the central bank... Far now. Again,
:19:26. > :19:30.markers are now down. They were fumbling at the end of last year.
:19:30. > :19:34.The leader of the ECB has clever ways of getting around his
:19:34. > :19:44.constitutional restrictions. think you're going to rain on his
:19:44. > :19:49.parade. I am probably the least eurosceptic person on this panel.
:19:49. > :19:53.think there are two things. It is shocking how bad the situation now
:19:53. > :20:03.is. The reality is that people are still living off their savings,
:20:03. > :20:04.
:20:04. > :20:09.people who are living -- having been unemployed, there are still
:20:09. > :20:12.living off... The idea that we have solved the problem in Greece is a
:20:12. > :20:17.long way off. The Greeks have a horrible time ahead of them. I do
:20:17. > :20:21.not think they have resolved the problems of the euro. It is only
:20:21. > :20:26.sustainable for a small block in northern Europe. I do not think it
:20:26. > :20:29.is sustainable for longer term. These are the issues that have not
:20:29. > :20:33.been resolved yet and they are still going along the lines that we
:20:33. > :20:36.can hold it all together despite the problems we have got a thing
:20:37. > :20:41.Greece and the unresolved problems in Spain and Portugal, we can carry
:20:41. > :20:45.on as if nothing has happened. with the first bail-out we knew it
:20:45. > :20:50.would not be the last month. The bail-out situation is more than
:20:50. > :20:58.economics, it is politics as well. At this time, imagine, right now
:20:59. > :21:04.with the world where it is, all the Arab countries that went through
:21:04. > :21:08.the spring, Egypt, sadly for Europe, Europe has a special role to play
:21:08. > :21:13.and all of these areas. For Greece to collapse and for the euro to
:21:13. > :21:21.collapse, that would mean they disaster internationally for
:21:21. > :21:25.everybody. So I think Fahmy I think the way I would look at it is just
:21:25. > :21:30.like that damn that was a small hole and this little child put his
:21:30. > :21:36.hand in that hole. But so that the dam would not break and kept it
:21:36. > :21:42.there. I think greases a little ball in that damn. I have been
:21:42. > :21:47.relatively and not to miss on the situation. I think the perceptions
:21:47. > :21:51.of France and Germany are very interesting and they're quite
:21:51. > :21:56.contradictory. Yesterday President Sarkozy gave the impression that
:21:56. > :21:59.the problem was settled, the Greek problem was settled. But the German
:21:59. > :22:03.Finance Minister gave the impression that this is an
:22:03. > :22:08.opportunity for Greece and Greece has to seize this opportunity. So
:22:08. > :22:11.there is a conditional, and there on the part of the Germans, which I
:22:11. > :22:16.would certainly hang on to for the moment. At the end of the day, it
:22:16. > :22:26.is obvious that growth is the factor. I see some good news from
:22:26. > :22:27.
:22:27. > :22:32.the United States which... A unemployment going down. There is
:22:32. > :22:37.growth in the United States. I think the picture in India is good.
:22:37. > :22:42.There might be a slightly slower growth in China this year, but
:22:42. > :22:47.certainly if essentially the American growth feeds into Europe,
:22:47. > :22:57.then I think it will be good news. EU have put your finger on an
:22:57. > :22:58.
:22:59. > :23:03.interesting point, the differences between France and Germany. Isn't a
:23:03. > :23:09.question how German attitudes have changed? You had the Finance
:23:09. > :23:13.Minister saying we could deal with that great default. We could deal
:23:13. > :23:22.with Greece and a different way if it should come to that. They are
:23:22. > :23:26.able to contain Greece than six months ago keeping decent the euro.
:23:26. > :23:33.I think they have to be realistic at the end of the day. As I have
:23:33. > :23:42.said before, Germany will fight to the end to save the euro. I am
:23:42. > :23:52.surprised that your optimism. just saying... I spent almost a
:23:52. > :23:54.
:23:54. > :23:59.quarter of a century doing stories about the European Union. I always,
:23:59. > :24:03.it always seems it to me, Germany does not want to be the country to
:24:03. > :24:08.destroy the euro and it doesn't want to be the country there was to
:24:08. > :24:18.bring down the European Union. It is not just about that case of what
:24:18. > :24:19.
:24:19. > :24:25.is on the spreadsheet. It is about the social side. An interesting
:24:25. > :24:34.speaking about Germany, which is strong, BMW released its annual
:24:34. > :24:39.figures. It had a 51% increase in profits in 2011. In 2012, February,
:24:39. > :24:43.their cells and China are already up 38%. So ill son up because the
:24:43. > :24:49.euro is low and is extremely good for Germany. If the euro work to
:24:49. > :24:55.follow part, there would be a re- evaluation of the new Deutschmark.
:24:55. > :24:59.They would be uncompetitive. But it is also the social and politics
:24:59. > :25:03.site. This is when I disagree with you, everything I have learned of
:25:03. > :25:13.are the last six once, they will figure out a way to do some kind of
:25:13. > :25:16.
:25:16. > :25:20.transfer of wealth back out to the Mediterranean. -- six months. I
:25:20. > :25:26.think they do realise that there is this huge imbalance and they have
:25:26. > :25:36.to reconsider. They are very solid and stable. So issue are new to the
:25:36. > :25:37.
:25:37. > :25:42.panel, we will give you the last word. -- since you are. So much for
:25:42. > :25:46.the idea that the euro will bring everyone together. In Greece the